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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Tempo of craziness has dropped off a little. But don’t expect it to last long.


Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
Trudeau’s Liberal justice minister Arif Virani says that putting Canadians under house arrest on suspicion that they may commit a hate crime in the future will “help to deradicalize people who are learning things online.”

OBSERVATION - The globalist test bed to our north tips its hand once again. The left world wide has kept the definition of ‘hate crime’ very loosely defined, granting it almost universal powers for action. Look only to here in the US as similar moves are apparently beginning to gain traction.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

An antifa group - Stop Cop City - is attempting to take their campaign nationwide. Stop Cop is known for its violence and vandalism in an attempt to stop construction of a new police facility in Atlanta.
Stop Cop City announced that they vandalized ten New York Police Department (NYPD) at a precinct in Brooklyn by puncturing vehicle tires and painting “For Tort” on the side of two NYPD buses. Stop cop city anarchists also have hit other targets in other states with vandalism as well.

OBSERVATION - Not a huge movement given the small support base trying to forward among other things defunding the police.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.

This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.


Economy-

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has officially declared an end to the severe drought that disrupted barge transportation along the Mississippi River system for more than a year. Draft restrictions on vessels have been lifted, and dredges no longer operate to maintain nine-foot navigation throughout the Mississippi River. About 589 million tons of cargo transit through more than 4,000 miles of the river’s navigable channels, according to the Corps.

OBSERVATION - A lot depends upon a good snowpack in the Missouri River basin keeping the large flow control reservoirs like Ft. Peck, full of water for the summer thru spring operations.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***

Transcripts of hunter’s congressional testimony are out - expect all kind of analysis today. Apparently hunter confirmed that his father, Joe, was indeed “the big guy” referenced in an email pertaining to a business deal with a Chinese state-linked energy company that made the Biden family and friends millions of dollars.

***
With the announced retirement of McConnell, several republicans have announced their desire to replace him. Watch FR threads for discussions.
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), who is not a Trump ally, has a major advantage in the race to replace McConnell due to successful fundraising efforts for the party. Cornyn would very likely continue McConnell’s pattern of resisting “America First” and populist policies.

***
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) agreed to take up former President Donald Trump’s motion that Trump has total immunity from charges he interfered in the 2020 election. Oral arguments are scheduled for late April, and a ruling is likely by June.

OBSERVATION - This has caused a severe melt down by the left as it torpedos Smith’s efforts to get a trial and a kangaroo court conviction before the elections.

***
The Democratic-majority U.S. Senate on Thursday approved a short-term stopgap spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown, after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives backed it with less than 36 hours before funding would have begun to run out.

The bill, which passed the Senate in a bipartisan 77-13 vote, will next go to President Joe Biden’s desk for signing into law. It will set deadlines to fund one part of the government by March 8 and the other portion by March 22.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****

biden dodged questions during ‘border’ visit.


Illegal Immigration –

biden and Trump visited TX yesterday. biden to Brownsville and Trump to Eagle Pass. Border patrol agents coldly received biden and the location of brownsville only very slight impacted by the border invasion. Trump OTOH visit to one of the epicenters of the tsunami even saw him waving to illegals on the other side of the river.

***
Texas bill making illegal border crossing an arrestable state offense BLOCKED by federal judge pending appeal.

***
The Biden White House is now referring to illegal immigrants as “newcomers.” This tips the hand of democrats ultimate goal of importing millions of new democrats - essentially establishing a progressive - communistic US for decades at least.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the West threatens nuclear war if the alliance sends troops to Ukraine.
During his State of the Union address on Thursday, Putin claimed NATO and the US are preparing to “strike Russian territory”.
He added: “They must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?”
This isn’t the first time Putin has threatened nuclear war with the West in recent years as Moscow and Washington continue to clash over the war in Ukraine.
Putin also claimed that his new RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is ready for the Russian military to use.

RUMINT-
RUMINT. After the loss of more than a dozen combat aircraft, Russia has apparently grounded its remaining A-50 AWACs aircraft. It is reported that Russian A-50 crew members are now calling in sick. It has been nearly a week since an A-50 has been detected in the region flying a mission.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.

Surprisingly quiet overnight as compared to the past couple weeks. Russian and Ukrainian sources both confirm that Ukrainian troops have advanced west inside Krynky towards Kozachi Laheri. This move expands the Dniiper River bridgehead.

Again, the most significant fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

Outlook —

Notable is the prolonged absence of A-50 AWAC aircraft into the Ukraine theatre of operations. This follows substantial losses of fighter / bomber jets as well. Some discussion floating around the OSINT crowd suggest that Russia’s substantial use of these fighter / bombers to support ground operations may represent a desperate attempt to get as much gain on the ground before Ukraine gets it F-16s and potential other advanced European jets to seal off further air threats. It is obvious that Russian has changed its use, placing these aircraft into a more exposed and hostile situation, lacking suppression of ADA assets.

Now add to this the loss of AWAC coverage and combat control, making CAS even more hazardous. OS imagery of a major air base that houses the A50 show only 5 aircraft on the tarmac and a 6th without engines. Two previously occupied slots are empty - suspected aircraft that have been shot down. Don’t want to be too redundant, but the remaining 5 aircraft noted may not be flight capable - due to repair part shortages. Similar shortages have been plaguing Russian civilian airlines over the past couple months, resulting in some crashes and ground incidents. A second question is does Russia have the trained crews to even man these planes? Given Russia’s manpower challenges to support the war so far, the answer is likely to be a Yes.

Watching ground action to see if the heavy Russian losses are beginning to slow their offensive actions or not. So far it appears that Russian is beginning to repeat the failures of previous operations, but this remains to be seen.


Moldova/Transnistria -

Tensions still high, pending a Russia response to the call for aid by Transnistria.


Europe / NATO General –

Broadly, NATO is waking up to the increasing likely hood that war with Russian will reach them in the next few years and they are scrambling to prepare for it.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is in its 5th month.

Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.

Key overnight developments -

- Gazans injured and killed in a frenzy of looting relief aid trucks.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

***
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday said the killing of over 100 people seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza was a situation that would require an effective independent investigation.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari unveiled a video of drone footage showing Gazans ambushing an aid truck carrying food and getting trampled to death during the looting; ‘Dozens of Gazans were killed and injured as a result of the stampede’ “As these vital humanitarian supplies made their way toward Gazans in need, thousands of Gazans ambushed the trucks, some began violently pushing and trampling other Gazans to death, looting the humanitarian supplies,”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.

IDF continuing to encounter small pockets of Hamas who they quickly eliminate.

Battlefield preparations to enter Rafah continue.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Lebanese Foreign Minister: The government is consulting with Hezbollah, and the consultation is binding and does not mean there is a final decision
NOTE - the nature of this ‘consultation’ is not mentioned, but suspect it has to do with potential militarily cooperation when war starts with israel.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

A suspected Israeli attack against the Syrian city of Baniyas has killed Iranian military “advisor” Reza Zarei, a member of the IRGC’s Navy, Iran’s state-run media reported

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Houthi leader threatens “military surprises and unexpected actions” in the Red Sea

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.

Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.

Houthi come back on the radar threatening “military surprises and unexpected actions”. A warning of asymmetrical combat. Probably the most ‘unexpected’ action would be the use of Iranian produced submarine drones - hard to detect and stop. Surface drones are another possibility if they can identify cargo vessels that are away from surface combatant protection. Another possibility is the beefing up of Houthi air defense readiness. Coalition jets are convention - not stealth - and could be increasingly vulnerable to air defense actions.

Still, the only really legitimate response to the Houthi threats are to bomb the living daylights out of them and keep them having to respond by moving their elements around to avoid detection and destruction. Waiting for Houthis to resume attacks is not the correct answer.



243 posted on 03/01/2024 6:40:43 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 239 | View Replies ]


To: Godzilla
The Biden White House is now referring to illegal immigrants as “newcomers.”

This tips the hand of democrats ultimate goal of importing millions of new democrats - essentially establishing a progressive - communistic US for decades at least.

244 posted on 03/01/2024 11:06:41 AM PST by GOPJ (Question: What are the two things Biden finds at ice cream shops? A. Ice cream and young children.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 243 | View Replies ]

To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

Recently, one can see how WEF/globalist forces have morphed their efforts to force their world view on the US and world. Many of these efforts are at generally a local level that at first glance doesn’t have the appearance of a threat - only an odd situation. But when fitted into the known global goals, it becomes apparent that these actions and steps are designed to get the fall of the dominos started.

*****
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is calling on governments to ban the general public from growing their own food at home by arguing that they are causing “climate change.”
According to so-called “experts” behind a recent WEF study, researchers apparently discovered that the “carbon footprint” of home-grown food is “destroying the planet.”
As a result, the WEF and other globalist climate zealots are now demanding that governments intervene and ban individuals from growing their own food in order to “save the planet” from “global warming.”
The research indicated that resorting to garden-to-table produce causes a far greater carbon footprint than conventional agricultural practices, such as rural farms.
This research, conducted by WEF-funded scientists at the University of Michigan, was published in the journal Nature Cities.

https://slaynews.com/news/wef-pushes-ban-home-grown-food-fight-climate-change/

OBSERVATION - How much more absurd can you get - or even genocidically inclined.

***
Speaking of food -
New York Attorney General Letitia James has been selected as the tip of the spear to launch the globalists’ war on beef. This week, she filed a ludicrous lawsuit against the world’s largest beef producer, JBS USA.

“This is their opening volley but it won’t be their last,” said Jason Nelson, CEO of Prepper All-Naturals. “They’re weaponizing the climate change hoax to destroy the beef industry, thereby forcing people to choose between petri dish ‘meat,’ tofu burgers, or insect powder to get the protein we need.”

James’ lawsuit claims JBS USA is “greenwashing” by allegedly misleading the public about its environmental impact. She asserts that the company cannot possibly achieve their goal of net-zero by 2040 because they don’t have an appropriate plan in place 16 years before the deadline.

As Nelson noted, James isn’t just using this lawsuit to punish a company for ridiculous reasons. She’s also using the lawsuit as a platform from which to normalize beef price hikes and gaslight people into thinking they don’t need all-natural meat.

As her recent statement indicates, they want Americans to choose to accept the alternatives the powers-that-be are promoting. Here’s a segment of her statement, emphasis added:

“As families continue to face the daily impacts of the climate crisis, they are willing to spend more of their hard-earned money on products from brands that are better for the environment. When companies falsely advertise their commitment to sustainability, they are misleading consumers and endangering our planet.”

https://thelibertydaily.com/as-ny-ag-letitia-james-launches-globalist-war/

OBSERVATION - Letitia James is already a nefarious character for the left and now pushing the leftist/globalist agenda into a new direction of law fare.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Placing this here rather than political -
Blaze Media Investigative Journalist Steve Baker has now been taken into FBI custody for his J6 reporting. He was reportedly charged with a misdemeanor offense and agreed to voluntarily appear in court for an initial appearance - and does so - then be cuffed for transport to court and then cuffed to a belly chain in the court.

OBSERVATION - The FBI’s sudden interest in Baker appears to coincide with his recent reporting on the alleged pipe bombs ‘found’ during J6 and the inconsistencies from the FBI about it. That he was forced to perp walked and then belly chained for a misdemeanor offense is designed to be a warning to others to shut the f up about J6, an act of deliberate humiliation . Multiple other journalists from big name legacy firms like the NYT also went into the capitol building on that day - none of them have been threatened with arrest.
Yes, this is a politically driven arrest, showing that the swamp is more a communist tyrannical regime with a growing police state than America. Our govt is at war with the constitution.

***
A pair of MSNBC panelists derided “white rural voters” as ignorant, conspiracy-driven rubes who present a “threat to democracy.”

Journalist Paul Waldman and University of Maryland professor Thomas Schaller went on MSNBC Monday to promote their new book, “White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy” with “Morning Joe” co-host Mika Brzezinski.

“We lay out the four-fold interconnected threat that white rural voters pose to the country,” said Schaller. “They’re the most racist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-gay geodemographic group in the country.”

“Second, they’re the most conspiracist group,” Schaller continued. “QAnon support and subscribers, election denialism, Covid denialism and scientific skepticism, Obama birtherism.”

“Third, anti-democratic sentiments,” Schaller added. “They don’t believe in an independent press, free speech. They’re most likely to say the president should be able to act unilaterally without any checks from Congress or the courts or the bureaucracy. They’re also the most strongly white nationalist and white Christian nationalist.”
Schaller kept going. “Fourth,” he said, “they are most likely to excuse or justify violence as an acceptable alternative to peaceful public discourse.”

https://thefederalist.com/2024/03/01/msnbc-hosts-blast-white-rural-voters-as-conspiracy-driven-threats-to-democracy/

OBSERVATION - This story has been out there for a few days, but with little time to fold it into ongoing craziness. I’ve noted time and again the process of labeling and defining US citizens on the right - and in this instance primarily residents of Red states and counties - as THE threat to the US.

If one took the time to closely look at each of the four charges these two arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy make, it is clear to the extent that the gaslighting taking place, as well as the internal view of the left. Particularly charge 4, where poll after poll has shown that democrats are the ones to see violence as an acceptable means to influence the public.

The actions of the left/swamp track very closely to the 10 stages of genocide which are -
1 Classification - People are divided into “them and us”.
2 Symbolization - When combined with hatred, symbols may be forced upon unwilling members of the pariah groups
3 Discrimination - Law or cultural power excludes groups from full civil rights.
4 Dehumanization - One group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases
5 Organization - Genocide is always organized, Special army units or militias are created and trained.
6 Polarization - Extremists drive the groups apart... Leaders are arrested and murdered... laws erode fundamental civil rights and liberties.
7 Preparation - Mass killing is planned. Victims are identified and separated because of their ethnic or religious identity.
8 Persecution - Targeted group faces legal and physical action against them all condoned by the ruling govt
9 Extermination - It is ‘extermination’ to the killers because they do not believe their victims to be fully human
10 Denial - The perpetrators... deny that they committed any crimes.

Modern parallels to these 10 steps have unnerving parallels to the current situation here in the US. As the prospect of a hot CW2 scenario or WORL societal break down grows, these areas will take more and more prominence. It is this scenario that these two ‘journalists’ are feeding into on the left and MSNBC is promoting to its (few) viewers.

***
The weekend is here and with it numerous protests by pro-hamas elements calling for a Gaza ceasefire and the elimination of the nation of Israel. Violence may locally occur, probably in the form of vandalism.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.

This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.


Economy-

Just 15 percent of the Smokehouse Creek fire has been contained. This is now both the largest and most destructive fire in Texas History. It’s now the second largest in US history.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that over 80% of all of Texas cattle feed in the TX is in the impacted area. Direct cattle losses are still being tallied. In Hemphill County alone, the fire’s devastation was particularly acute, with approximately 40 homes burned and significant agricultural losses, including thousands of cattle, a critical blow to a region where more than 85% of Texas’ cattle are raised.

OBSERVATION - If the feed and cattle losses are as high as inferred, this will cause prices to spike again at the market.


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

CDC is now saying to treat wuhan like the common flu.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee heard closing arguments on March 1 on the motion to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from prosecuting the high-profile racketeering case against former President Donald Trump and 14 others.

“There are several legal issues to sort through, several factual determinations I have to make, and those aren’t ones I can make at this moment,” Judge McAfee said.

OBSERVATION - Keep in mind McAfee is a democrat judge with ties to Willis. There is a better than 50/50 chance that he will produce some sort of contorted justification to ignore the blatant actions of Willis and Wade and permit the trial to proceed. Rule of law is dying in the US.

***
It has been revealed that the Illinois judge who went against previous state rulings to yank Donald Trump off the state’s primary ballots has little background in complicated election laws or the Constitution and was a mere traffic judge before she issued her ruling.

Late last month, Cook County Circuit Court Judge Tracie R. Porter decided in all her legal wisdom to ban Donald Trump from the Illinois primary ballot because he is supposedly an “insurrectionist” under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, even though he has neither been convicted nor even charged with such a crime.

Porter issued her ruling in the judicial review of a case brought by five activists — Steven Anderson, Charles Holley, Jack Hickman, Ralph Cintron and Darryl Baker — who objected to Trump’s name being on the state’s ballot. The five men are members of the left-wing activist group Free Speech for People, which filed the same complaint in Michigan. Officials there ruled against removing Trump from the ballot.

https://www.westernjournal.com/judge-removed-trump-ballot-originally-working-traffic-court/

OBSERVATION - The world can see that we’ve degenerated into a banana republic. Traffic court judge - please.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****
James Biden has now admitted that he paid his brother Joe $40,000 out of funds he received from CEFC China Energy, which is generally regarded as a front for the Chinese government. “Where did you believe the source of the money that was going into [Hunter Biden’s company] Owasco, prior to being sent to you, was coming from?” an investigator asked James during the Feb. 21 interview. “CEFC,” James conceded

RELATED -
Hunter Biden confirmed in congressional testimony Wednesday a key aspect of the impeachment inquiry into his father, saying President Joe Biden, while vice president in 2014 and 2015, met his business associates from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine at a Washington, D.C., restaurant.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/hunter-biden-testimony-impeachment/2024/03/01/id/1155658/


Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

A major health care technology company is still scrambling to restore its downed systems following a massive cyberattack, which has crippled operations in health care systems across the country for ten days.
“The cyberattack against Change Healthcare that began on Feb. 21 is the most serious incident of its kind leveled against a U.S. health care organization,” according to the American Hospital Association (AHA).
The Nashville-based healthcare technology company says it continues to work with law enforcement and cyber security consultants to get their systems back to normal following the cyberattack, but it does not know how long it will take to get fully resolved.

An official company statement says a ransomware group that identifies itself as ALPHV/Blackcat has claimed responsibility for the cyberattack and perpetrated the online hack.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/fallout-from-massive-cyberattack-against-one-of-largest-health-care-companies-in-us-5598904?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

OBSERVATION - Hackers are becoming more adept at getting past cyber defenses - especially if the system users are careless in some manner.


Illegal Immigration –

Texas bill making illegal border crossing an arrestable offense BLOCKED by federal judge pending appeal.

***

New York Mayor Eric Adams has called for a radical overhaul of its sanctuary city status in a spectacular u-turn as the city buckles under the weight of migrant arrivals. The Democrat leader has faced a furious backlash as schools, hotels and community centers have been turned over to the 180,000 migrants who he has warned will ‘destroy’ the city.

OBSERVATION - Can cross ref to CW2 as well. Much of the backlash to the support given illegals comes from the black community who are seeing the illegals being given preference over their traditional feed from the govt trough. In the event of things going sideways, conflict between blacks and illegals may become hot as they fight for resources.

***
Democrat assembly member Joaquin Arambula (Fresno) recently introduced Assembly Bill 1840 to extend a first-time homebuyer loan program to illegal aliens.

If the bill becomes law, illegal aliens will be eligible for a new program that offers a loan worth 20% of the purchase price of the residential property. There are no monthly payments and no interest accrues on the loan. Rather, the loan is paid back when the borrower refinances or sells the property. The borrower will have to pay back the original loan plus a 20% increase in the value of the property.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/illegal-aliens-get-interest-free-home-loans-under/

OBSERVATION - Clearly the goal is to embed these illegals into our country and make it very difficult to remove them. Kalifornia already tens of billions of dollars in the hole, willing to toss even more money to the wind for people who shouldn’t be here in the first place. This is on top of massive, free medical care and the thousands of dollars each month paid out to them.


North/South Korea –

See Russia- Logistics below for questions on supplying ammo to Russia.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).

*****

Since Navalny’s death was announced, authorities seem determined to avoid letting his funeral become a public spectacle.

From the moment Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila, traveled to the penal colony north of the Arctic Circle where he died a sudden death in mid-February, she said Russian authorities had tried to blackmail her into staging a nonpublic funeral.

First, they refused to hand her Navalny’s body. Then, Navalny’s allies could not find a venue which would agree to host the funeral. On Thursday, it suddenly became impossible to find a hearse to carry his body to the church.

Putin, who famously refuses to call Navalny by his name, appears to have decided his political foe should disappear underground enshrouded in silence.
The size of the service was limited but police seemed to have been told not to interfere with the crowd.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/03/01/thousands-turn-out-for-navalnys-funeral-n3783937

OBSERVATION - putin is facing reelection to office here in the upcoming months. With it is the anchor of an unpopular war in Ukraine. He doesn’t need a new martyr haunting the backs of people’s minds at the voting booth.

RUMINT-

Yesterday saw more evidence suggesting that Ukraine’s killed or severely wounded Russia’s top general in a missile strike in occupied Crimea - Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He wasn’t seen at Putin’s “state address.” Russia’ did however put out several videos showing him giving awards to soldiers, but without any dates or details of the locations.

Logistics –

North Korea may have stopped supplying ammunition to Russia.
This based on a report that North Korean cargo ships have not sailed to Russia for three weeks, the ‘NK Pro’ publication says.
The reason for the cessation of deliveries by sea is unknown. However, it’s speculated that North Korea may still supply weapons to the occupiers by air or rail.

Other reports that Iran has stopped shipments of cannon artillery as well due to depletion of reserve supplies.

If these reports are correct and true, Russia could well be facing an ammo drought in the near future.

Others note that both Iran and NK have ramped up their ammo production - so shortages may be speculatory for the moment.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.

Ukraine shot down another Russian Su-34 airplane in eastern Ukraine. In addition, overnight, 14 out of 17 Shahed drones were shot down. Drones were targeting Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv regions.

Avdiivka -

Heavy clashes continue at the area west to Avdiyivka, Ukrainian military repelling multiple Russian attacks

Crimean front —

According to Russian media outlet MASH, Ukraine attempted to attack the Crimean bridge with a combined strike of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and American ADM-160 MALD decoys. Allegedly at least 12 missiles would have been shot down.
However the targets were likely near by military airport.

Russian Territory –

Ukraine drone damaged 2 residential house in St.Petersburg. It is believed that the target could have been the Ruchy oil depot.

Outlook —

The Russian offensive will continue to press hard against Ukraine and will continue to make some gains. The Russian continuation to put its CAS into range of Ukraine’s ADA assets resulted in another shoot down of a Su-34. The big discussion is just how long can Russia sustain this level of losses? All boils down to how many jets they have available.

Forbes reported that Russia’s air force has acquired a total of 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers. As of Friday, Ukraine claims to have downed 35 of them. The Oryx open-source intelligence tracker lists 25 Su-34s destroyed.
If Ukraine’s figures are accurate, the Russian air force would have around 105 Su-34s remaining in service. However, an unknown number may not be operational due to damage, a lack of pilots, and required routine maintenance.
“The impact of losing 13 aircraft in almost as many days, and possibly some of their highly trained pilots, is not negligible for the Russian military,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its Thursday update.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-many-su-34-fighter-bombers-russia-have-left-ukraine-1875023

NOTE here, Oryx has ‘retired’, so those numbers are old but does track at trend that Ukraine’s claim of 35 killed. As I’ve commented many times, of the approximately 105 remaining aircraft remaining, not all are flyable, due to parts and pilot shortages. Heavy use causing wearing out of parts is a key factor. Also, not all of those aircraft are dedicated to the Ukraine war. Russia has been conduction considerable bombing of Syria in support of Assad. Also, aircraft are dedicated to protect other border areas and assets of Russia. So the trend of losing a jet per day is not a good thing for Russia, and may force them to make some serious tactical and strategic adjustments. Until then, the Kremlin sees the surge in CAS more beneficial to the current offensive operations than the loss of airframes.


Moldova/Transnistria -

Kremlin officials reportedly met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is in its 5th month.

Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas reports 7 hostages have been killed.

- Countries looking to conduct expanded air drops of supplies to areas within Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

Seven hostages who have been held in Gaza were killed as a result of the Israeli military’s bombardment of the enclave, Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing al-Qassam brigades said on Friday.
He did not include details, like a timeline, backing up the claim.
The Al-Qassam brigades claimed that the number of hostages killed due to Israel’s military operations in Gaza has now exceeded 70 captives, Abu Ubaida added in a statement on Telegram.

***
Military spokesman for the Egyptian army: Egypt continues to airdrop tons of food and humanitarian needs into the northern Gaza Strip.

U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce that the United States will air drop aid supplies into Gaza, official s say

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.

Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis.

More IAF airstrikes on areas around Rafah.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

3 Hezbollah terrorists, including a top commander were killed this morning in an Israeli missile strike against their car in Naqoura in southern Lebanon.

***
Increasing rumors that Israel is building up forces in the north in anticipation of war against Hezbollah.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

A suspected Israeli attack against the Syrian city of Baniyas has killed Iranian military “advisor” Reza Zarei, a member of the IRGC’s Navy, Iran’s state-run media reported

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Quiet in Iraq and Syria, though Iranian militias have announced recently that they are going to resume attacks on US bases.

Houthi attacks remain at a low level.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.

The international airdrop of supplies into Gaza will have the effect of resupplying Hamas, and not the non-combatants in the area.

Israel’s continued strikes on key Hezbollah leadership and sites continues. Targeting of key leadership and infrastructure is typically associated with shaping operations intended to soften up the enemy before large-scale combat operations begin. Again, many do not see Israeli initiated ground offensive as imminent, but several months away. As noted many times, Hezbollah may launch a preemptive offensive at almost any time rather than continue to have Israel pick apart its leadership and key sites over the next several months.

The relative quiet by the ISLAMIC RESISTANCE may soon be broken as the Iranian backed militias and Houthi’s retain the capability to strike at any time. In the case of the Houthis, the recent coalition attacks may have hurt more than is being let on - so they may be working to redeploy assets before resuming more attacks.


Iran –

Iran held separate elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts. These elections will likely preserve and possibly even reinforce hardliner influence in the Iranian regime.

Unofficial results from Iran’s parliamentary vote show overwhelming wins for regime-aligned candidates as ordinary Iranians boycott sham elections.

Reports also were that turn out was very, very low.



245 posted on 03/02/2024 6:48:02 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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