Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Indeed - overload the system with crime to facilitate a ‘savior’ who will bring things back under control.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
A group called Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, which has partnered with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is now targeting memes.
Gavi republished an opinion piece from The Conversation, which claimed memes may have a “sinister function” and “form part of a highly sophisticated strategy to spread and monetise health disinformation.”
“Memes may appear trivial, but they should be taken seriously,” the statement continues. “Dismissing them as harmless jokes is to grossly underestimate their influence – and bolsters their power to spread potentially harmful health messages.”
The group added that memes have been used to “vilify the government and social institutions, portraying them as corrupt and politically compromised. Anti-government sentiments were used to support several claims.”
“These included claims that the government is corrupt and tyrannical; that vaccines are unsafe and ineffective and that the government is using vaccines as a form of state surveillance, for control and profit.”
Explaining the threat of “disinformation” present in memes, the article claimed, “Memes are powerful propagators of disinformation because they allow influencers to claim plausible deniability. Under the protective guise of humour and satire, memes can evade fact checkers and content moderators while promoting anti-vaccine myths and unauthorised treatments.”
The Gates Foundation has given millions of dollars to Gavi since 2000.
OBSERVATION - Once again - the goal is censorship of all views and opinions that go against the globalist narrative. Memes included. Of course gates is behind this. . . .
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
(FO) Radical anarchists published a guide to geolocating government data centers by pinging the Internet Protocol (IP) address of government websites, gathering domain registration information, and traceroute commands to track network connections. The guide is designed to help anarchists locate government data centers likely for direct actions like vandalism and arson.
OBSERVATION - Expect more targeted vandalism if things get spun up this election season.
***
The Great Sort is under way, as normal people move to red states and liberals move to blue states. (That last is hypothetical and hasn’t actually been observed.) When massive numbers began leaving blue states like California and New York for red states like Texas and Florida, many conservatives worried that those blue staters might bring their bad voting habits with them. Happily, that doesn’t seem to have happened.
This Wall Street Journal story is headlined: “Blue-State Residents Streamed Into South Carolina. Here’s Why It Stayed Ruby Red.” But it deals with more than one state:
A Wall Street Journal analysis of census data found that a third of [South Carolina’s] new residents between 2017 and 2021 hailed from blue states and a quarter from red ones, according to census data. …
Yet the new arrivals are disproportionately Republican. Estimates from the nonpartisan voter file vendor L2 suggest about 57% of voters who moved to South Carolina during that time are Republicans, while about 36% are Democrats and 7% are independents. That places them roughly in line with recent statewide votes in South Carolina.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/red-states-getting-redder.php
OBSERVATION - This has been a concern of some of us in reliably red states as the hordes of moving vans come in. I saw earlier data indicating similar to this report from a couple years ago. Regionally and nationally, this divergent migration is creating an ever growing rift in the country at a state/regional level, a rift that should something like the TX - Fed standoff in TX blow up, the fault line between red and blue could severely rupture.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
The typical U.S. household needed to pay $213 more a month in January to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to new calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
Americans are paying on average $605 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,019 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began.
OBSERVATION - Hard dose of reality that the regime is trying to play down under its ‘happy days are here again’ bidenomics bilge.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A high-altitude balloon of unknown origin and purpose was spotted over the Western United States Friday afternoon, CBS News reported.
Speaking on a condition of anonymity, sources said the balloon was moving east on the jet stream, passing over Colorado earlier in the day. The sighting was enough of a concern that the military sent aircraft to investigate.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/china-spy-balloon/2024/02/23/id/1154761/
OBSERVATION - Here we go again.
***
Aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) pulled into its homeport on Friday, U.S. 3rd Fleet announced.
Vinson arrived at Naval Air Station North Island in California this morning local time after operating for four months in the Indo-Pacific. Carrier deployments are typically six months long, but can get extended. Vinson does not have plans to immediately enter a scheduled maintenance availability and is still certified for national tasking, USNI News understands.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Nasty batch of the nori-virus hitting the NE.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Intense battles on the law fare front -
- The special counsel Jack Smith’s federal cases, look like a complete bust. The one in the DC federal district court under Judge Chutkan is unraveling on its obvious lack of merit, its misapplication of the statutes cited, and Mr. Smith’s illegitimate appointment under the rules governing special counsels.
- New York Attorney General Letitia James won the first round with an utterly truthless case, decided despotically by Judge Engoron without a trial, that, for now, has created awful tactical problems for Mr. Trump. He may adroitly overcome the $355-million judgment to bring his appeal, and at some point up the ladder of review, Ms. James will be subject to the disgrace and punishment she deserves
- The Nathan Wade / Fani Willis soap opera continues to unravel as new phone evidence shows the two in cahoots far earlier than they admitted to in court. In the first eleven months of 2021, Willis and Wade exchanged 2,000 phone calls with one another, according to the affidavit. They also texted each other nearly 12,000 times.
On other political issues - battle lines being drawn again over Ukraine support vs Border closure demands. These will bash up against the expiration of the CR on March 1. Right now I’d place odds on a govt shut down as I don’t think Johnson is going to buck the conservative wing who is ready to vacate the seat again.
Democrats continue to try to rebuild biden’s image that he is physically and mentally capable of continuing as president. This time trying to paint him as being sexually vigorous.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Nothing further on the cell outages of yesterday, as the narrative seems that AT&T screwed up a software update.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Local news reports growing with crimes and murder caused by illegals - some of which have been deported numerous times. Situation being made worse by soft justice returning these thugs to the streets instead of jailing or deporting.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
See Russian loss of a critical A50 AWAC jet under Ukraine.
Logistics –
Partisan reports note that the replacement tanks being brought in by Russia predominately consist of T-62 and T54/55 series tanks. Indicates that stocks of the more modern T72/T80 varieties are essentially gone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, claim to have shot down another Russian A-50U “Mainstay” Airborne-Early Warning and Control Aircraft today over the Sea of Azov, with footage showing several missiles having struck the aircraft causing it to disintegrate and crash in the Krasnodar Krai Region of Southwestern Russia.
Russian sources claimed that the Beriev A-50 has been shot down by their own forces, Tracking of the plane placed it over Russian territory east of the Azov sea, further east of where the other plane was shot down. Video shared online shows the moment the plane appears to be shot down in the air, as well as a missiles being launched from apparent Russian territory against the plane.
According to the UP source, the A-50 was shot down by the S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system. S-200 has a range of up to 300 Km. Aircraft location when hit learns the needle towards a friendly fire incident. Otherwise, Ukrainian air defenses are now able to down aircraft operating roughly 200km (124 miles) behind the front.
Who ever shot it down doesn’t matter as much as the loss of another of these systems is a major blow to Russia. It has very few to begin with and that number is even less that are flight ready. Ukraine last claimed to have shot down an A-50 on 14 January. At that time, the UK’s ministry of defense said that Russia probably had six operational A-50s in service.
Additionally, its crew is huge and not replaceable
Add to Russia’s air woes - Reports that at least one if not two high-end Russia’s Su-34 figher-bombers have been shot down.
Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk came under Ukraine drones attack.. It is the largest metallurgic plant in Russia . Massive fires are reported. The plant produces approximately 15 - 20% of the steel used in Russia.
Avdiivka -
Russia attempted to push its successes at Avdiivka a bridge too far and found out that Ukraine had established strong defensive positions - losing considerable numbers of soldiers and equipment in the process.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia continues to press the offensive also multiple axis. Their progress is so far been very limited by a combination of stiff Ukrainian resistance and poorly trained and equipped Russian forces. Russian milbloggers note that putin has placed a demand that Russia secure Luhansk Provence in the next 4 weeks. At the current rate, that will not be any where close to obtainable unless Ukraine defenses completely collapse.
Russia loss of the A50 places them in a very difficult situation. In addition to early warning, the planes also control ground attack and CAP operations over most of southern and eastern Ukraine. This creates, again, a major vulnerability in the Russian air defense network as well as providing CAS to ground units. At dispute is just who shot it down. Many OSINT analysts are leaning towards a friendly fire scenario, based on video footage and logistical / tactical challenges to move ADA assets close enough to the front to bring the plane in range.
Noted above is that the loss includes the trained crew - very hard to replace. Replacement aircraft will likely have to come from other military districts - reducing Russia’s national level protections.
Russia has an abundance of strategic level targets that is impossible for it to protect all of them. Ukraine’s so far successful campaign of taking out ADA related systems will only stress Russia even more - especially later this year when Ukraine goes live with F16s.
Belarus -
Increasing OSINT concerns of a false flag event that could be designed to bring Belarus into the Ukraine war.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israeli PM Netanyahu has presented his first official “day after” plan for the Gaza Strip once the war there ends, saying Israel will keep security control over all Palestinian areas and make reconstruction of Gaza dependent on its demilitarization.
***
During the meeting in Paris between the representatives of the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, a new and updated outline for the deal for the release of hostages was agreed upon - this is what two sources familiar with the contents of the talks said on Saturday.
No word on Hamas acceptance of the framework, though it is believed that Qatar is in contact with them and negotiating on their behalf.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Intensity of fighting and location vary on a day by day basis as IDF encounters pockets of Hamas resistance and works to eliminate them.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
***
Friday, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted the headquarters of the Upper Galilee Regional Council in Kiryat Shmona with two drones.
***
The Israeli Navy’s fleet of missile boats carried out “extensive” exercises over the past week, the IDF said on Friday, as the military prepares for potential war in the north while Israel warns that its patience for a diplomatic solution is running out.
The IDF said the Navy drills simulated fighting in the northern maritime theater, and some exercises were carried out alongside the Israeli Air Force, including the 193rd Squadron which operates the AS565 Panther helicopters, primarily used for missions at sea.
Among the scenarios that were drilled included foiling drone attacks, aerial rescue operations from vessels, and refueling the missile boats at sea, the IDF said.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli security forces stormed the village of Madama, south of Nablus. Confrontations broke out with Israeli security forces in the town of Jayyus, east of Qalqilya
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi are setting up what appears to be a system where shipping pays them money to permit their vessels to pass thru the Red Sea without being attacked.
US military planners reevaluating their strategy to suppress Houthi attacks.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The Houthi continue to run tighter OODA loops than the US, and are winning the ‘war’. US mil planners are hamstrung over the regime’s paranoia over angering Iran that extensive proactive airstrikes are not being allowed.
CAPs are doing a yeoman task identifying Houthi drone and ballastic launch systems and hitting them, since they are highly mobile and small footprint. But what is necessary is massive and extensive hits on ammo dumps, command and control targets. biden et al are too cowardly to make that call, so Red Sea shipping continues to be endangered.
Misc of Note –
The large cell phone outages of yesterday has stirred up appropriate concerns in the preparedness community concerning alternative comms in the event of an emergency. I don’t have a lot of time here to break it all down but here are a few thoughts and options.
You will need a back up means to communicate with family and support group elements. How far apart are they? should be your first question as distance plays big in the type of asset available to use.
Small, walkie talkie type units found at Walmart/sporting good stores are good for relatively short ranges - generally less than a mile (don’t believe their 35 - 45 mile claims). These are low power devices,usually with 0.5 watt output. They contain GMRS designated frequencies that are permitted to be used due to low power . Gmrs to be discussed later
Next comes the trusty, dusty CB radio. At 4 watts, it can justifiably reach 4 - 6 miles, depending heavily upon the quality of the antenna and location. SSB (single side band) can effectively increase power to and equivalent of 8-12 watts with ranges over 10 miles. Add an illegal linear amplifier and it can reach across the country under proper conditions. It is in the 11 meter HF band.
GMRS is the latest golden child. FCC offers essentially a no-test license applicable to the whole family for $35. With it you can legally use radios with up to 35 watts of power. It also has a growing network of repeater stations that can spread the communications range to nearly 100 miles depending on the repeater location. This gives near - ham radio comms power, but has a very limited frequency spectrum available for use.
Ham radios - the golden standard - are the best at all ranges of comms requirements. There used to be a morse code test requirement - but that is no longer the issue. Entry level Technical licenses are easy to get. Technicians can operate on 70 cm, 2 meter and 10 meter bands at power up to 1500 watts!. the 70cm/2 meter bands have an abundance of club operated repeaters across the country. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, the club repeater I can use covers a huge swath of SW Montana (at 5 watt radio power!). The 10 meter band Technicians are authorized to us has regional area coverages - again with as much as 1500 watts allowed.
More advanced Ham licenses permit more HF bands to be used that enable global communications.
Take time to figure out the distance needs of your family/group and work towards establishing comms to meet that need. One size doesn’t fit all.
{{{SHUDDER}}}
Thanks
...
GMRS is the latest golden child. FCC offers essentially a no-test license applicable to the whole family for $35. With it you can legally use radios with up to 35 watts of power. It also has a growing network of repeater stations that can spread the communications range to nearly 100 miles depending on the repeater location. This gives near - ham radio comms power, but has a very limited frequency spectrum available for use.
With the Iranian situation getting worst and thousands of bad actors crossing the border.. might be time to look at alternative ways to contact family members. Thanks for commenting on this.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
See “CW2 / Domestic violence” below on an apparent button push to trigger islamic actions to undercut western civilization - seemingly coordinated on a global basis.
***
A recent article in “The New Scientist” appears to be endorsing cannibalism. The article calls upon readers to “reassess our views” on cannibalism based on “compassionate” motivations behind it — this is an appeal back to folklore and superstition.
“The New Scientist — a mindless rebellion against a Western culture they hate. And this is no different than the anti-modern progressivism of the past 60 years; it’s an outshoot of self-loathing Malthusianism, in which progressive Utopians want to force a return to agrarian subsistence-level living for a greatly reduced human population. That irrational belief system has turned into a neo-pagan religion of its own, with an Angry Earth Mother That Must Be Appeased through sacrifice. The more honest among them will set the goal at around one billion humans to keep Gaia from overheating, a figure that would eliminate six out of every seven humans currently on the planet.
“Reassessing” cannibalism on the basis of “compassion” would certainly accelerate their progress to that goal, no? You could deconstruct Western civilization more quickly by reinstituting human sacrifice, and clean up afterward by putting man-flesh back on the menu, boys! And guess who’d be on that menu? Hint: It wouldn’t be the enlightened elites who sneer at the herd. “
“Ask not for whom the dinner bell tolls .. it tolls for thee.”
“Progressivism isn’t just a philosophy or ideology. It’s a cookbook!”
OBSERVATION - As absurd as this all sounds, the logic presented does have support by the WEF/globalist and their agenda to wipe out norms of western civilization while at the same time, tilling the ground in the minds of the world in preparation for the apparent designed famine the anti-agricultural efforts of the WEF et al have to lower carbon emissions. This is a very stunning admission as to some of the “conspiracy theory” behind the curtain.
Perhaps the Soylent Green jokes are not as unrealistic as the globalists want us to think.
***
Perhaps a little related - Farmers continue their protests all across Europe against global warming mandates designed to essentially eliminate farms for the sake of emission goals.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
ProHamas protests have progressively down scaled over the past few weeks, as energy and enthusiasm declines. There is still a hardcore faction that targets specific events for disruption.
At this time, it is unclear how the movement will morph as the general election gets closer. I would suspect that when Israel finally engages Hezbollah in the fight to end all fights, these pro-hamas folk will morph into pro-hezbollah riots once again - exhibiting anti-Israeli bent of the radical left.
Speaking of Islamic protests, though the ground zero is presently Europe, the meteoric rise in moslem fanaticism across the board is tightly linked to the Gaza war as a triggering mechanism. The cultural distractive mechanisms that these ‘immigrants’ have brought with them is rapidly forcing the culture to not only tolerate - but now to actively support these islamic radicals. Not even Japan is exempt, as moslems that have been brought into the country to work the factories, etc are becoming more aggressive against Japanese in public. Assaults and vandalism have skyrocketed in recent months.
This should serve as a warning for us here in the US as the leftist city/state and even fed govt are increasingly supportive of the push of radical islamic effort to reshape the country. This moslem take over of parts of the country is being further facilitated by the vast uncounted thousands of moslems that have broken into the country and burying themselves into prepared moslem communities. Minnesota being one of the prime epicenters.
This growing islamic push is creating another fracture line in the structure of the country. By and large, they see violence as a tool by which to get their way with govt - and judging from global actions, we are just beginning to see the leading edges of its efforts here in the US.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
The EPA finalized air pollution standards that create more stringent limits for soot exposure, as it is called. This despite a 42% decrease in the national average over the last 22 years, according to the agency’s own data.
“It’s going to hurt economies. It’s going to hurt manufacturing. It’s a real problem,” Daren Bakst, senior fellow with the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), told Just The News.
The Clean Air Act requires the EPA every five years to do a complete review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for six common pollutants, which includes particulate matter.
The new standards lowered the fine particulate matter from 12 micrograms per cubic meter of air to 9 micrograms per cubic meter. That means under the new standards, in one cubic foot of air, there can only be 0.00000026 grams of particulate matter.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference under “Globalism / Great Reset “ as well
The iron fist of regulations works to by pass congress and the will of the people. These numbers are so stupidly small that they are at the very edges of detection. They will destroy the diesel industry as well as coal power - that is their intentions.
***
Another sign may have emerged suggesting that Joe Biden’s efforts to blackmail the country into switching to electric vehicles are failing. Ford Motor Company had already significantly decreased its production of the F-150 Lightning electric trucks earlier this year. Now they have halted shipments of the trucks. A statement from the company claims that the pause in shipments was driven by unspecified “quality issues.” But that’s a curious explanation considering that they simultaneously resumed shipments of their gas-powered trucks. (Fortune Magazine)
OBSERVATION - Hard, cold facts of the economy have caught the auto industry flat on their feet. In spite of the thousands of tax dollars subsidies, they can’t move the merchandize and are taking billions of dollars in losses. Now it appears that the regime is back pedaling on its aggressive all EV demands.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Department of Defense has identified the balloon as being a hobbyist balloon, and has stated that it poses no known national security threat.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Rutgers University students for now will have no choice but to comply with the university’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, a federal appeals court ruled.
The Feb. 15 decision stemmed from an appeal filed in January 2023 by Children’s Health Defense (CHD) and 13 students who sued Rutgers in August 2021, arguing the mandate violated the students’ “basic right to control our bodies.”
Julio C. Gomez, lead attorney for the plaintiffs, told The Defender that CHD and the students “are considering all options, including further appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.”
In its ruling, the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said Rutgers had a rational basis for the mandate as part of efforts to curb the pandemic on campus.
OBSERVATION - The Wuhan tyranny continues deeply embedded on colleges and universities across the country. Insulated from state laws, universities tend to be self contained and not answerable to the population. The decision is being appealed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Nikki Haley got blown out of the water in her home state primary. Yet she doggedly claims to continue.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Border Patrol released more illegal aliens onto the streets of an already-overwhelmed San Diego, California on Friday, at the same time that a “welcome center” for immigrants was forced to shut down because it ran out of funding, due to the surge.
“The Border Patrol bus released approximately 200 migrants onto the streets in San Ysidro, where they were then handed over to a non-governmental organization for help,” Fox News reported Friday.
The release of illegal immigrants on Friday is the latest instance of ongoing Border Patrol releases into San Diego.
In just one five-week period late last year, nearly twenty thousand migrants were dropped off in San Diego, local station CBS 8 reported on October 18, 2023:
Border Patrol encounters between ports of entry in San Diego Sector are up 73.8% through the first four months of the current fiscal year (Oct. 2023-Jan. 2024), surging to 120,124 from 69,117 in the same period last year. In each month, the number of encounters was at least sixty percent higher than the same month year-ago.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/illegal-aliens-unleashed-streets-san-diego-border-patrol
OBSERVATION - What is not mentioned by the article is that the increase of illegals entering kalifornia has been made worse by TX stiffening its border defenses causing illegals to enter via the democrat controlled states of NM, AZ and CA. Also noted it that the drop-off location was a bus depot - where these illegals can head across the country with no accountability.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Yesterday marked the second anniversary of the war. Russia celebrated with a big fireworks show in Moscow. Recent successes in the winter/spring offensive have locally boosted Russian morale.
Apparently now a Russian IL-22M11 was shot down at the same time as the A-50U on February 23, 2024. I am suspicious of this claim as it may be an echo of last months’ IL-22/A50 confirmed shoot down.
Robotyne Axis -.
Russian mechanized Infantry entered the city of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region, with Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrawing from a majority of town as well as several communities to the east in order to secure a fortified defensive line to the north.
Robotyne was the most significant town recaptured during Ukraine’s summer/fall offensive.
Avdiivka -
Russian efforts continue to press forward as Ukraine works to reestablish defensed west of the fallen town.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia continues to press the offensive also multiple axis, seeing their biggest successes on the Avdiivka and Robotdyne axises. Point to not that the Robotdyne push may come sputtering to a halt as Russian forces encounter the same obstacles -now probably reinforced by Ukraine, that hindered the Ukraine offensive. Those defensive positions essentially forced dismounted infantry to press forward to clear lanes for armor follow up. time will tell if the Russian forces have the same technical skills and will to fight through these defenses.
Lack of artillery and other ammo has reached super critical levels. Were Ukraine to have had the ammo supply it had months ago, the Russian offensive would have been seriously blunted. Now Russia had regained a favored artillery advantage and is able to cover its troops better and with less fear of the Ukraine counter battery fire. Until this supply issue is resolved, Russia will continue to slowly make gains. But the tenacious Ukrainian defense is capable of preventing any major breakout.
Europe / NATO General –
Big buzz over the inter webs yesterday of this event -
A reportedly “Rare Sighting Of The UK Kings Guardsmen Regiment marching down the mall Westminster”: The presence of the King’s Guardsmen regiment marching down the Mall in Westminster signifies a display of honor, tradition, and protection associated with the monarchy. It could symbolize the king’s authority and the ceremonial representation of power.
“White Horse Comes Out When The King Is There (But Charles Was Not There)”: The appearance of a white horse when the king is present, although not in the case of Charles, could symbolize purity, nobility, and strength. It may represent the king’s connection to divinity or the idea of a chosen leader.
“2 Black Horse Guardsmen Escort The Kingdom’s Flag Which Is Covered In Black”: The presence of two black horse guardsmen escorting the kingdom’s flag covered in black might signify mourning, loss, or a somber occasion. It could suggest a significant event or tragedy within the kingdom, such as the passing of an important figure or a period of national grief.
The significance of what this sighting signifies exactly Is not clear, but apparently it is rare. Has anyone seen another explanation?
IDK, could it be associated with these recent events?
Just days ago, numerous British MP’s expressed their fear of voting against a Gaza ceasefire as a mob of mostly Muslim protesters swarmed the Houses of Parliament.
The protesters projected the Hamas slogan “From the River to the sea” onto the Big Ben clock as the vote was set to take place before it was aborted.
Thousands of security cameras are also set to be installed to protect Members of Parliament near their homes.
All MP’s have also been issued with security guards when they do public meetings with their constituents.
It is becoming apparent that there is a ‘soft’ civil war brewing in Britain as these islamic invaders are set on bringing down the culture and rule of law.
Pakistan –
See Iran below on special ops raid
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Plans for the operation in Rafah going forward
- US/UK jets targeted a number of Houthi sites in order to reduce their capabilities to continue shipping attacks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Fatah Movement: There is no talk with Hamas about joining the PLO and the priority is to stop the war
***
The Israeli war cabinet decided to send a delegation to Doha in the coming days for follow up talks on the humanitarian aspects of the hostage deal, a source familiar with the issue told. He said the talks will be technical & the Israeli delegation will have a limited mandate
***
In an unprecedented development, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh’s government could resign within two days in the hopes of creating a new technocratic Palestinian government, it was reported early on Sunday.
According to Sky News Arabia, Palestinian sources are reporting on the possibility that the government of the PA, headed by Shtayyeh, could resign within days and, in its stead, form a new professional technocratic one before the end of this week.
These developments come in light of news last week that Hamas had approved the formation of a technocratic government whose mission is to rebuild Gaza and restore security to the Strip after the war. Sky News Arabia has reported that there are indications from within Hamas that it has agreed to the formation of a technocratic government.
Reports state that the new government will not be affiliated with any Palestinian political party, where professional independents will take over government management during an initial transitional phase until elections can be held at a later time.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-788691
OBSERVATION - Some view this as a means to secure a separate palestinian ‘state’.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israeli troops captured terrorists who tried to hide among civilians being evacuated from combat zones in western Khan Yunis, the military said on Sunday morning.
***
Netanyahu is planning today (Sunday) to present plans for the IDF attack in Rafah, amid mounting international pressure for an immediate ceasefire.
“I will convene the Cabinet to approve the operational plans for action in Rafah, including the evacuation of the civilian population,” the prime minister tweeted.
“Only a combination of military pressure and firm negotiations will lead to the release of our hostages, the elimination of Hamas and the achievement of all the war’s objectives,” he added.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Four rockets were fired from Lebanon at the Galilee Panhandle a short while ago, apparently landing in open areas, according to the Israeli army. The projectiles landed near Margaliot, and there were no reports of damage or injuries. Hezbollah claims responsibility for the attack, saying it targeted an army base in the area
***
The IDF on Saturday struck a weapons storage facility belonging to the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
“Earlier today, an IDF aircraft identified a terrorist cell entering a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Matmoura,” the IDF confirmed. “A short while after, IDF fighter jets struck the weapons storage facility where the terrorists were located.”
“Following the strike, secondary explosions occurred, indicating that large quantities of weapons were stored there.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Lebanese media reports that a truck was hit by an Israeli strike near Qusayr along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Two members of Hezbollah may have been killed, per initial reports.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli security forces have arrested at least 15 Palestinians since yesterday evening
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The U.S. and UK with support from coalition countries have carried out strikes on more than a dozen targets in 5 locations in Houthi controlled territories of Yemen. The targets include weapons storage facilities, drone & missile launchers, two U.S. officials said
The American bombing targeted a number of sites in the capital, Sana’a, and Amran Governorate, with a number of raids, the most important of which are: Sana’a; Mount Attan; Jabal al-Nahdain-Ghartin; Maintenance camp; Khashm Al-Bakra Camp - Saraf - Ghartin; Television Ocean - Ghartin Imran; Mount Dhin-Ghartin.
The Pentagon said that Saturday’s strikes were”necessary and proportionate strikes “
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The US / UK attacks on Houthi targets were very limited. If such strikes are going to make a difference, they should continue and intensify and not let up for much longer time. Houthi will just dust themselves off and in a few days, the volume of attacks will be back as before.
Iran –
Iran special forces have carried out a cross-border raid into Pakistan during which they killed Ismail Shah Baksh, a leader of Jaish al-Adl and a number his supporters.
OBSERVATION - There are so many smaller islamic groups throughout the region. However, Pakistan and Iran have been seeing increasing aggression towards each other’s territory that this my grow into a more severe conflict down the road.
Misc of Note –
I commented on the need for radio comms to keep family/friends/support groups connected. I want to add one other radio related item to the mix - standard AM/FM and short wave radios.
It is important to get outside news and updates during a crisis. As most radio stations that are serious about news and emergency preparedness have some sort of power backup having a radio of some sort is essential.
You can get a combination radio that includes short wave (HF) comms as well. Not too expensive either. For example, shortwave allows news sources like the BBC to reach into the US with news you might not otherwise have. When I was a kid, centuries ago, I had a portable AM/FM radio and phonograph with short wave and remembering tuning in to listen to these shortwave stations.
Don’t be information / intelligence starved in an emergency where the internet (via wifi, cell phones or the like) is down. Your life could depend upon it.
The open border thing's insane... and needs to be continually outed.
...shortwave allows news sources like the BBC to reach into the US with news you might not otherwise have. When I was a kid, centuries ago, I had a portable AM/FM radio and phonograph with short wave and remembering tuning in to listen to these shortwave stations. Don’t be information / intelligence starved in an emergency...
Any recommendations of an AM FM SW radio that actually picks up SW stations? Or what to google to fine one? Never found one that works - or is that an antenna problem?
There are still shortwave listening clubs, some overlapping with ham radio hobbyists.
It is possible to live in an area where shortwave is mostly blocked by some constant interference.
Plenty of shortwave radio options at all price ranges.
https://www.amateur-radio-wiki.net/best-shortwave-radio/
Thanks jjotto....
The Tecsum line is highly recommended from the preparedness community in general. My Tecsum also has a SSB capability - which means I can listen to Ham operators talking to each other since they normally operate in SSB mode. Mine came with an external antenna to supplement their standard collapsible one for better reception.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Google Gemini made a belly flop into the computer world over the past weeks and there is no real effort to correct its unbelievable bias any time soon. As it will be linked into the massive Google network, its bias will expand exponentially - along with it the malinformation (vs misinformation) the mind-numbed sheeple will encounter. This is just the kind of Orwellian tool the globalists want.
***
Christine LeGarde, a globalist French politician who has been president of the European Central Bank since 2019, has recently announced that the European Union is getting closer to launching its new central bank digital currency.
Analysts are pointing out the key to the coming digital system. They will tokenize your assets. The other part of the deal is that they will also tokenize your existence through the issuance of a digital ID. Any asset, living or nonliving, can be tokenized.
What is a digital token?
Wireless token technology has been around since 2008. A wireless token is like a serial number printed on a dollar bill, including a series of letters and numbers, only with tokenization those letters and numbers can change every ten seconds. These changes provide authentication.
At some point they will engineer a switcheroo, offering you X amount of tokenized assets in return for your paper dollars.
OBSERVATION - There are many scenarios for a driver to CBDC and eventual social status controlled global digital currencies. Many of the scenarios are based upon a global economic disaster driving the switch to digital. This one matches more the policies of incrementalism that has bore fruit for the left for the past couple decades. Small changes, not big enough to cause disturbances in the “force” so to speak and generate push back, but allow the sheeple to readjust to the new way of doing business, then the next step - etc, until the ultimate goal is reached.
IMHO, we are seeing multiple scenarios due to the fact that the globalists want to have alternatives and back up plans should something pop up that is out of their control, they can still redirect to their ultimate goal(s).
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
The Temecula Valley Unified School District, though a relatively small school system (approximately 26,000.students), has just made a huge difference in the lives of every family in the country that believes in parental choice and in preventing the promotion of the Critical Race Theory agenda.
In 2022, TVUSD chose to take on the dominant leftist politics of California through two courageous actions. They banned the teaching of Critical Race Theory (CRT) in their schools and required school staff members to notify parents immediately if any student identifies as a gender other than the one on their birth certificate. This policy is nearly identical to policies previously approved by both the Chino Valley and Murrieta Valley School Districts in California.
The reaction was as could be expected. California Attorney General Rob Bonta opened an investigation, followed by a lawsuit being served on TVUSD by the Temecula Valley Educators Association and a group of political activists. This group of activists asked for an immediate injunction against TVUSD. On Friday, February 23, a California court ruled in favor of TVUSD. The court affirmed the district’s parental notification policy as well as their policy of prohibiting the teaching of CRT.
OBSERVATION - Normally, this item would have been considered under the long obsolete term - “Culture Wars”. However this has merged into many other categories and in this case a developing issue in the growing CW2. Temecula is a very red, rural area of Kalifornia and like other red counties, have been fighting its political war against blue democrats in Sacramento. The growing divide in Kalifornia indicates that if a nation - wide separation of sorts occurs, it will not be clean red state vs blue state, given vast tracts of land in these blue states that are heavily aligned with other red states. If anything, these red counties will likely bear the heaviest portions of any conflict as the blue urban areas that dominate state politics seek to obtain resources for their sustainment of their populations with the red counties seeking to contain the mobs that would likely try to move out an into the counties to take by force.
***
Far-left pro-Palestine protesters confronted attendees arriving at the Beverly Wilshire hotel where there was an event featuring former speaker pelosi.
OBSERVATION - This is an example of the smaller scale protests I talked about in a previous post. Again, what is interesting here is the attack by these associated pro-islamic leftists on a leftist herself. This is not unlike the Antifa attacks on the mayor of Portland for not supporting their cause enough. These leftist (and islamist sympathizers) demand old guard democrats to dump their support of Israel.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 26, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
Some analysts are noting increasing parallels to the great recession of 2008 and 2009. One indicator is foreclosures are really starting to spike here in 2024. In fact, the number of new foreclosure filings in the U.S. just jumped 10 percent in the recent month. Hand in hand are commercial foreclosures that are increasing as well.
As I’ve noted a lot, the housing market is a window to the health of the economy as a whole, as it touches many sectors as well as being a major employer. At present, very few can afford a new home, let alone a used home - both for the price as well as mortgage payments. And this also reflects across the economy as to how people are faring under the conditions. Over all prognosis is not very good for the short or medium term IMHO
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
NY Post reports that Ronna McDaniel has officially announces her resignation as RNC chair to be effective March 8th.
OBSERVATION - This will trigger to a degree a small civil war within the RNC, given that there are many RINO anti-trumpers in the hierarchy. Hopefully, a replacement that has the view of the majority of the republican party in mind, and not the aristocracy of the establishment in mind, willing to take the fight to the democrats rather than be Wilber Milktoast.
****
The handwriting is on the wall - Koch network stops spending on Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign after her loss in South Carolina — Politico
***
See biden - johnson meeting on budget below under ‘biden’
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden is expected to meet with congressional leaders including Speaker Johnson today in a bid to unlock billions in financial aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and to avert a government shutdown.
OBSERVATION - I do not hold out much for this meeting. Missing from the WH release is any talk about really securing the border. If brought up biden will push for more money to ‘process’ illegals as well as throw at those here to keep them pacified for the moment. Johnson is under great pressure to force biden to close the border. Irresistible force meeting immovable object? I think Johnson has a high probability of folding and in doing so see his seat vacated. This would toss the House into convulsions given that there is even a smaller majority of republican than last time due to retirements and expulsions. There is still the specter of rino congressional members voting for a democrat speaker candidate which would really mess things up going into the elections. Top this off by blowing away the March 1 deadline for the budget, generating a partial govt shutdown. It could get really messy fast.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Venezuela is reportedly refusing to accept its citizens who have been deported from the U.S. and Mexico, further forcing illegal immigration as a key issue in the 2024 presidential race.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro introduced the ban after D.C. reimposed some economic sanctions it had previously lifted on the Central American country, according to a report last week in The Wall Street Journal.
About 13% of all U.S. Customs and Border Protection encounters this fiscal year have been with Venezuelan nationals for a total of more than 160,000 encounters, per government data. That number is likely higher as CBP has yet to release data for the month of February.
Fewer than 2,000 Venezuelan migrants have returned to their home country over the past four months, according to NewsNation. Venezuela has rejected all U.S. deportation flights over the past four weeks due to American sanctions on state-owned mining companies. The U.S. had lifted those sanctions after Maduro promised free and fair elections, which have not been held.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent the criminals northward to the US. Deliberate and with the knowledge of the US govt, who have willingly ‘processed’ them into the US to prey on US citizens. Note the Venezuelan gangs operating in New York and the recent murder of a young college woman by a Venezuelan who was captured at at the border and released, arrested in New York and released only to kill.
The refusal of illegals only leads to one thing protective of Americans - the establishment of interim prison facilities to hold these arrestees until they can be pumped out of country towards Venezuela in some manner.
***
The aftermath of a record-high influx of migrants coming into the country via the southern border is straining budgets in some of the nation’s big cities — and putting pressure on the federal government to chip in.
This stress on blue cities could well be a killer political ad for Trump, who can point out the crime and cost problems, in comparison to the cheap fix of completion of the border fence.
China –
China sends warships to Middle East, not in support of allied efforts against Houthi’s but more against piracy from Somalia.
***
China’s Communist party has sharpened its rhetoric towards Taiwan, raising the pressure on the country as its president-elect Lai Ching-te prepares to take office in May.
Wang Huning, China’s most senior official in charge of Taiwan policy after President Xi Jinping, said Beijing “must resolutely fight ‘Taiwan independence’ separatism”, according to an official account of the party’s annual Taiwan work conference, which ended in Beijing on Friday.
China must also “further grasp the strategic initiative to achieve the complete unification of the motherland”, the state news agency Xinhua quoted Wang as saying.
Political analysts said Wang’s language was markedly tougher than pronouncements from last year’s conference, and confirmed expectations that Beijing would step up efforts to push Taiwan into acquiescing to unification after Lai’s victory in the January 13 presidential election.
https://www.ft.com/content/28172cc1-b3b7-4a72-88b0-5a963d0ce823
OBSERVATION - The tougher language is expected due to the win by Lai Ching-te’s coalition. It also marks a step closer to a potential move against Taiwan in a more aggressive manner.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin once again is threatening NATO with nuclear war if Ukraine gains membership and NATO forces are stationed there.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 14 Shahed drones, 3 of 3 Kh-59 missiles, also Russia launched 2 S-300 missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missile and Kh-31P missile.
Maryinka Axis-
Russian Ground Forces are claiming to have made significant advances to the north of Marinka in the Donetsk Region, with heavy fighting reported as Russian mechanized elements are claimed to have entered the outskirts of the City of Krasnohorivka from the south and east.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces pressing attacks to the southwest of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian Forces have withdrawn from Lastochkyne village, to hold Orlivka-Tonenke-Berdychi line of defense. Russia now claims control of the city. Essentially, Ukraine is allowing the salient to collapse to shorten its defensive lines.
Outlook —
Ukraine is struggling on several fronts to contain Russia advances, due largely to lack of artillery ammo. The superiority of Ukrainian artillery support has been a cornerstone of their defenses since early in the war when they were down 10:1. Now roughly 3:1 with higher Russian support along axis, it it hard to maintain its positions.
One game changer is the Kersch Bridge - one of the primary lifelines of supplies to Russian forces.. Taking it out would force supplies to come in from the east along more exposed routes or ferried across the Sea of Azov in naval landing ships and other cargo vessels.
Another strategic game changer is the receipt and use of Iranian long range missiles that are forcing the wests’ hands on getting similar to Ukraine. Only time will tell.
Europe / NATO General –
New data show that Russia is engaging in GPS jamming in the area of the Kirkenes Airport, Norway practically every day now. There have been 44 cases so far this year.
Russia recently threatened Norway over Svalbard Islands.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- IAF strikes hit large Hezbollah ammo storage sites.
- Airstrikes on Houthi targets yesterday have slowed shipping attacks for the moment.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
A woman kidnapped from Israel and brought to Gaza by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7 has given birth while in captivity, the wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a letter released on Wednesday by the premier’s office. The woman who gave birth in Gaza was reportedly a foreign worker in one of the Israeli towns bordering the Hamas-run coastal enclave until her Oct. 7 abduction.
“One of the kidnapped women was pregnant. She gave birth to her baby in Hamas captivity,” Sara Netanyahu wrote in a heartfelt letter addressed to US First Lady Jill Biden.
****
The Biden administration asked Israel to stop targeting members of the Hamas-run civilian police force who escort aid trucks in Gaza, warning that a “total breakdown of law and order” is significantly exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the enclave, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
U.S. officials say they are increasingly concerned “that Gaza is turning into Mogadishu” as a security vacuum and desperation have opened the door for armed gangs to attack and loot aid trucks, putting even more pressure on the Strip’s already strained humanitarian system.
OBSERVATION - Hamas morphs into what ever form necessary to survive. Dress up as civilians or pretend to be ‘civilian police’ or even hole up in a hospital. What ever is necessary to maintain presence, power and survive the Israeli operations to eliminate them.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Reuters: The Israeli army says it bombed Hezbollah air defense systems in the Lebanese Bekaa. This follows an shooting down of an Israeli drone.
A series of Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon has targeted the area of Sahl al-Adous near Baalbek. Massive secondary explosions being reported.
Israeli Defense Minister - “We plan to increase the intensity of fire against Lebanese Hezbollah”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian PM Shtayyeh presents resignation of his government to President Abbas.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The recent US/UK airstrikes against the Houthi have created a delay in their attacks. However, it is foolish to think they will last long and that more air strikes need to be conducted in a more continuous manner. Expect to see Houthi ramping back up their attacks in the next day or so.
Unusual quiet on the other end of the ‘resistance’ as attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq have slowed way down.
Venezuela -
See “Illegals Immigration” above over refusal to receive any more deported Venezuelans.
Central / South America General-
Massive protests in São Paulo as Brazilians have had enough with their antisemitic President Lula. They are also calling for his impeachment in response to his authoritarian crackdown against human rights & freedom of speech. Yesterday’s protest is reported to be the largest one ever held there.
OBSERVATION - The Brazilian govt has taken a hard, leftist totalitarian turn, causing a great deal of growing civil strife.
things could get nasty in the short term.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European farmers sprayed police with liquid manure and hurled eggs and flares during another wave of clashes in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, February 26, 2024. The confrontation occurred as the European Union’s agriculture ministers convened to address the agricultural sector’s grievances, including red tape and competition from low-cost imports.
Central to the farmers’ grievances are the challenges posed by bureaucratic hurdles and the threat of cheap imports from countries not bound by the EU’s stringent agricultural standards. These issues have culminated in significant economic pressures on local farmers, who argue that current policies undermine their competitiveness and sustainability.
The demonstration in Brussels is a potent symbol of the agricultural community’s demand for fairer policies that support local farmers against the backdrop of global market dynamics.
OBSERVATION - Global warming standard hitting European farmers hard and protests have continued throughout Europe.
The only conclusion is that the WEF/Globalists are seeking to create a manufactured global famine as part of their goals to reduce the world’s population.
***
Word out is that Australia will come out with their digital currency some time this summer. Australia has been one of the most compliant countries to WEF demands. If they are successful in rolling this out, it is likely more countries like Canada and in Europe will follow suit.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 26, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Hazmat teams were on the scene at the Florida home of Donald Trump Jr. after he opened a letter and white powder came out. Trump Jr., the eldest son of former President Donald Trump, opened the envelope, causing the white powder to fly out, as reported by one of the sources. A representative for the former president’s son stated that it remains unclear what exactly the substance was but confirmed that Trump Jr.’s life does not appear to be in danger. The letter also reportedly contained a death threat.
OBSERVATION - A warning shot - very likely.
***
An explosive device detonated outside the office of Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, a Republican, in Montgomery. The bombing didn’t manage to injure anyone and is under investigation.
OBSERVATION - Republican AG’s have been fighting a war with the regime over its policies and should consider upping their security as it appear we may be on the cusp of a more lethal leftist actions.
Economy-
Continued reading of different economists views of where the economy is headed. Some saying rosy, others very dark. Each relaying on their favorite indicators - which over all seem to contradict each other.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Reading reports of a new ‘spike’ in the latest wuhan version in China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Arab/islamic voters in Michigan have been organizing for months to send Joe Biden a message during the state’s primary on Tuesday: “No ceasefire. No vote.” In the final hours before primary election day, on Monday, Khalid Turaani stood outside the Islamic Center of Detroit and distributed pamphlets encouraging people to vote “uncommitted” on their ballot papers.
“We’re doing all that we can to ensure that Biden is a one-term president,” Mr Turaani, the co-organiser behind Abandon Biden, told the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68409546
OBSERVATION - Radical islam is flexing its muscles this political cycle in an effort to gain sufficient leverage to force America into a state where it can take its next steps and force shriah law on it. This movement is not unlike what is happening in Europe.
***
Reports that Speaker Johnson may be designing ‘mini-buses’ to vote on to avoid a partial govt shut down on March 1. Not much word on content.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden will visit the southern border (Brownsville, TX) on Feb. 29, the White House announced, the same day that former President Donald Trump will go to Eagle Pass, Texas, to highlight the worsening border crisis.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
China –
See Philippines below on latest aggressions.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Phillipines –
The Philippine Coast Guard Spokesman for the West Philippine Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela said the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) likely jammed the automatic identification system (AIS) of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels during their rotational deployments to the Scarborough Shoal. The vessels were using AIS, but their signals dropped out at the same time as Chinese press releases that they had “successfully repelled illegal intrusions” into the Scarborough Shoal.
OBSERVATION - This is technically an act of war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 13 Shahed drones, 2 of 4 Kh-59 missiles, also Russian launched several Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles and Kh-31P missile
Ukrainian air forces shot down Russian Su-34 in the eastern regions.
There are reports that some of the drones fired overnight came from Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. This has not been confirmed, but a more likely observations is that Russia has not been shy about tracking these drones and cruise missiles over Moldova (violating their airspace) to work an end around Ukraine air defenses.
Reports showing that Russia still hasn’t learned its lessons. From many fronts, reports of columns of tanks/APCs being stopped and eliminated by Ukraine fire as they charge into kill zones with inadequate support.
However, Russia continues to press forward with its offensive actions across all axises.
Outlook —
With relatively supportive weather, Russia is pressing forward with its offensive, forcing Ukraine back in many sectors. In spite of ammo shortage, Ukraine is still able to inflict high losses on the Russian forces as they continue to make the same tactical errors made worse by inexperience. Continued heavy Russian losses will eventually dry out the Russian offensive and their pushes could expose flanks and logistical supply lines - further stalling the offensive.
Ukraine has nailed another Russian jet - indicating that Russian is continuing to force its CAS forward to support the assaults. Russia’s problem is that these jets are pretty much irreplaceable and can’t really be ‘replaced’ like Russian do with tanks (i.e. T54/55 and T62).
Ukraine has also gone full production on its version of the Iranian Shahed drone. Along with other drones, Russia will be more hard pressed to defend strategic industries deep in Russia with its shrinking ADA assets.
Forecast more of the same, as Russia maintains the initiative in the east and south.
Europe / NATO General –
Emmanuel Macron overnight - France does not exclude sending troops to Ukraine. “I say to you very clearly: on this point France will maintain its position - it is a strategic ambiguity and I’m fully behind it”. Victory over Russia is essential for European security.
***
Hungary has officially ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, 188 voted for and 6 against. Hungary was the last country to ratify.
Sweden will now officially become a NATO member.
***
Stranger and stranger. Jacob Rothschild reportedly died just three days after two black horses were spotted with a ‘captured’ white horse and a Black Flag outside Buckingham Palace. Does the Death of Jacob Rothschild explain this rare sighting of Kings Guard in London over the weekend?
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Mixed results on cease fire discussions.
- Hezbollah launches a large rocket barrage, IAF strikes deep into Lebanon in response.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
ABC, according to an Israeli political source - Netanyahu was surprised that Biden expressed his hope that a ceasefire would be reached by Monday.
Qatari mediators have informed Israel that Hamas officials are “disappointed” with the framework of the hostage deal that was presented in Paris last Friday & emphasized that there is a significant gap between the proposal and their demands, 2 Israeli officials told
***
The IDF is confident that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is still hiding in the tunnels beneath Khan Yunis, the Washington Post reported.
The report added that Sinwar is “surrounded by a human shield of hostages intended to deter an operation to capture or kill him.”
US officials said they agree with the Israeli assessment that Sinwar is hiding under Khan Yunis and has surrounded himself with hostages.
In recent days, some officials have speculated that Sinwar may have moved a few miles away to Rafah, on the border with Egypt. Israeli officials have publicly disputed press claims that Sinwar escaped over the border.
OBSERVATION - The hunt for Sinwar is growing to levels of that for Saddam Hussain. As the war has pounded Gaza, support for Hamas as gotten tenuous as they hid behind civilians and even steal food and other relief supplies only to sell them back to the gazans at high prices.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
The IDF and IAF conducted operations against Hamas infrastructure and terror operatives in the Zaytun area in Gaza City on Monday.
Israeli forces located a weapons manufacturing facility and rocket launchers used by the terror organization and identified a number of terrorists inside a tunnel shaft, which they promptly destroyed. The terrorists were eliminated.
***
IDF spokesperson writes in the Wall Street Journal that their military has ‘discovered that most homes in Gaza have terror tunnels underneath or weapon caches inside, and the majority of schools, mosques, hospitals and international institutions have been used by Hamas for their military operations’
***
The IDF just exposed a 10km-long Hamas terror tunnel in n Gaza that passed under a hospital and a university. Hamas used it to move terrorists between brigades.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Hezbollah said it fired some 60 Katyusha rockets at an army base in N Israel. There are no reports of injuries in the barrage.
Israel conducted its deepest strikes into Lebanon yet by hitting targets in the Bekaa Valley, killing two Hezbollah members. The Bekaa Valley has long been considered a Hezbollah stronghold and Israel choosing to attack it signals a definite expanse and escalation of the ongoing conflict far beyond the south Lebanon border region, given it lies a full 100km from said border.
***
Israeli air strikes in Al-Majdil, Lebanon reportedly eliminated Hassan Salama, commander of Hezbollah’s east sector.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis are believed to have damaged 4 underwater communication cables in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The cables are critical global infrastructure which facilitate internet connections between parts of Asia and parts of Europe.
Currently, there are no cable repair companies willing to go into the area and repair the cables due to the ongoing attacks by the Houthis.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Even though IAF has been operating in N Gaza for several months now, they continue to uncover substantial tunnel and bunker networks. Hamas for the most part, is getting eaten up in piecemeal fashion.
Israel continues it battlefield preparations to enter Rafah, striking strong point on the city’s perimeter as well as Hamas facilities in the heart of the city. Evacuation of residents and refugees will still take probably more than a week before Israel can attack the city in earnest.
Houthi’s have executed one of their warnings - hitting undersea optic cables. They also managed to fire a few drones too. But the severing of these cables needs to be a big wakeup call to the west - quit handling them with kids gloves. The Houthi are winning this conflict.
Venezuela -
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia suspended its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia.
NOTE - CSTO was Russia’s equivalent of NATO following the break up of the Soviet Union. Russia tossed Armenia under the bus last year when Azerbaijan moved to retake Nagoro-Kambach region that Russia promised to assist Armenia to protect it. Rumors are that Armenia is looking to Europe for military assistance to defend against further Azeri aggression.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
The Utah legislature passed the “Utah Constitutional Sovereignty Act” in late January, and on the 31st it was signed into law by Republican Governor Spencer Cox. The new law, which has garnered national media scrutiny, provides a legal framework for Utah officials to refuse the enforcement or assistance of federal government actions that violate the state’s sovereignty.
According to the text of the bill, S.B. 57, “establishes a framework for the Legislature, by concurrent resolution, to prohibit the enforcement of a federal directive within the state by government officers if the Legislature determines the federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty.”
The bill can be acted upon if, it says, “A federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty if the federal directive restricts or infringes upon: (a) a power or a right reserved to the state by the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution; or (b) the state’s rights or interests to provide for the health, safety, and welfare and promote the prosperity of the state’s inhabitants.”
In a statement released with the signing, Cox explained, “Balancing power between state and federal sovereignty is an essential part of our constitutional system. This legislation gives us another way to push back on federal overreach and maintain that balance.”
OBSERVATION - This trend is growing in red to leaning red states, to draw a line in the sand against the expansion of fed govt into states rights. It lays another foundation stone for separation should the deep stated govt try to over reach its powers.
***
Radical islamists may take the opportunity of Ramadan starting on March 11th to ramp up their protests with increased violence. This would appear in their pro-hamas protests, and likely spill over into the night hours - much like Antifa’s tactics during BLM based riots of 2020.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Speaking at a situational assessment in advance of Ramadan at the IDF’s Central Command, Gallant said Israel sees a “growing preoccupation of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to turn the month of Ramadan into the second phase of October 7 and set fire to the area.”
OBSERVATION - Threats of terrorism have traditionally been higher during Ramadan - as religious fervor spikes among moslems. That threat is not isolated with Israel, as the global pro-hamas / pro-islam protests across Europe and the US have laid the groundwork for significant terror incidents there as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is about to undergo a major restructuring, according to a document obtained by Fox News.
The service calls for reducing its force by about 24,000, or about 5%. These cuts will only affect posts that have remained empty and not actual soldiers.
OBSERVATION - Not stated, the Army could also fold the colors of various units, deactivating them and moving any soldiers in those units into others.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Trump took Michigan with 68% - against 27% for Nikki Haley. Michigan marks Haley’s fifth successive loss in the primary contests.
****
Johnson met with biden over the budget and border impasse. No evidence of just what path is being pursued, but there are some indicators that the border issue is trending over Ukraine.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden won 80% of the Michigan vote, according to projections, but the “uncommitted” exceeded expectations with 13%.
His campaign will pay close attention to see if that result in the key swing state will spread nationwide.
The “uncommitted” campaign is one based on opposition to US support of Israel in its war in Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The fact that 13% voted ‘uncommitted’ is a warning shot to biden. The campaign behind the uncommitted are also pushing the no ceasefire, no vote for biden, effort. This effort’s core are moslems and islamophiles in the democrat left, a demographic biden can’t afford to lose given the apparent shift other demographic towards Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Recent Gallup poll indicates that a whopping 28% of Americans now believe immigration is the most important problem our country faces today. That’s followed by government (in itself) at 20% and the economy at 12%. What’s more, a record number of Americans — 55% — say “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” is a “critical threat” to our vital interests. 31% call the illegal immigration problem “important,” while just 14% say it’s “not important.”
***
In a news paper story that is designed to tug at the emotions, first responders are reportedly having to seek mental health counseling because of the reportedly human tragedy being played out at Eagle Pass. They are claiming substantial numbers are now drowning in their efforts to cross the Rio Grande (unsubstantiated by other sources) and are having to do recovery operations.
I think it is safe to say that if these conditions were as bad as they say, biden regime would be on it like white on rice.
***
(FO) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to hold a trilateral meeting on migration with officials from Mexico and Guatemala today.
Why It Matters: According to the press release, the meeting will focus on “migration management” and “[expanding] lawful pathways” for immigrants.
OBSERVATION - This sounds a lot like a way to streamline the flow of illegals into the US and nothing to do with stopping it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian government will ban gasoline exports for six months beginning March 1.
This is due to increasing breakdowns of foreign equipment at oil depots and ongoing drone attacks on the Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
The measure will not affect the agreed volumes of supplies to the EAEU countries, as well as to Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and unrecognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 10 Shahed drones overnight.
The Russian air offensive continues to sustain significant losses. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have downed a pair of Russian Su-34s yesterday. Air Force of Ukraine has now destroyed 10 Russian aircraft in 10 days. Also of note, Russia hasn’t moved another A50 AWAC system to replace the one recently shot down. This means that Russian fighters/bombers are flying mostly blind to the situation around them.
As news continues to come out on the Russian offensive, more and more evidence that Russia is sustaining very heavy losses. One video released by Ukraine shows two dozen armored vehicles (Tanks, APC, trucks etc) destroyed on a half mile long section of road west of Avdiivka.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces made minor gains north of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka -
Russian forces continue to press hard westward in an effort to keep Ukraine from reestablishing a defensive line. In doing so they are receiving heavy losses and just how much longer they can pursue this tactic is becoming shorter as a result of those losses. So far, the action has been relatively successful at keeping Ukrainian forces off balance.
Outlook —
I wonder just how willing Russian pilots are in pursuing Russia’s air offensive. While numbers of remaining aircraft are up for debate, what is known is that of that number a substantial percentage are inoperable due to repair issues / no parts. Another uncertainty is just how many pilots are available to fly the airworthy jets. It is clear that CAS has been an important factor in Russia being able to punch thru Ukrainian defensed at focused locations. But it is apparent that they are flying right into the maul of an air defense network that they likely have never trained against. Historically, Russian military exercises have been highly scripted with little room for unexpected simulated combat scenarios. What remains to be seen is if the combat experience curve can help these pilots overcome Ukraine air defense measures, or will they continue to falter like the Black Sea Fleet.
There has also been a significant pause in Russia’s deep missile campaign against Ukraine. With a major ground offensive underway, one would expect a significant uptick in these attacks, trying to disrupt Ukrainian reserves and supply operations. So far, mostly pesky drones and some missiles directed more at civilian targets.
Weather is still favorable for vehicle movements, so Russia will push it as hard as they can before the spring rains kick in and every thing turns into a major quagmire again.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Participants in the congress of deputies of all levels opening in Transnistria intend to ask Russia for help, - says the draft resolution of the congress, which the deputies received for review. Ask the Federation Council and the State Duma of the Russian Federation to implement measures to protect Transnistria
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah escalated its rocket attacks with Israel equally retaliating.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday warned that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are trying to use Ramadan to inflame the region so as to achieve another October 7 disaster against Israel.
According to Gallant, their hope is to provoke Palestinians in the West Bank, Hezbollah, and Arabs and Muslims across the region to attack and turn their rage on Israel, using the Temple Mount and tensions in the West Bank as an excuse.
***
Reports of armed Gazan clans are battling for power. Many are affiliated with ISIS, the Islamic Jihad & Al-Qaeda.
OBSERVATION - There is a vacuum of power in Gaza that these more radical islamic groups are rushing in to fill. No news on IDF views of these small fights, but as long as they don’t turn their weapons on them.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Hamas managed a fire a few rockets at Ashkelon.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Hamas terror group says its Lebanon branch fired a barrage rockets at the Kiryat Shmona area this morning. In a statement, Hamas claims to have fired 40 Grad rockets from Lebanon at IDF bases near Kiryat Shmona. The IDF identified only some 10 rockets crossing the border, one of which struck a building in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage but no injuries.
The Israeli army: 20 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards our territory. We intercepted a number of them
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. aircraft and a coalition warship shot down five Iranian-backed Houthi one-way attack (OWA) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in the Red Sea.
The German frigate “Hessen” shot down 2 Houthi anti-ship missiles or drones in the Red Sea overnight.
Yemeni sources - Iran promised the Houthis to double their support with missiles and submarines after the American and British strikes
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
In the north, Hezbollah continues to have its leadership, command and control and logistical elements thinned out. Loss of those elements will hamstring much of Hezbollah’s response to the eventual invasion of S Lebanon by Israel forces. Israel is gaining valuable intelligence on locations of Hezbollah facilities to load into their data base and I’m not sure just how understanding Hezbollah is of this fact.
Misc of Note –
A powerful blizzard is set to strike California on Thursday as residents are being warned to brace for 12 feet of snow and 120 mile-per-hour winds.
The storm heading toward the West Coast will shower low-elevation areas with rain and coat the Northwest and northern Rockies with blankets of snow.
More severe impacts will be seen in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains - which are set to face blizzard conditions.
The looming snowstorm will be the strongest of its kind since this time last year, when a siege of storms hit the Sierra’s in late February and early March.
Areas in the northern and central Sierra have received blizzard warnings from Thursday morning to Sunday morning, according to the Weather Channel.
OBSERVATION - Donner, party of 12, Donner, party of 12.
Seriously, if you have to travel over the Sierras, take this warning seriously.
They should also reduce the number of flag officers by 20% for starters while they are at it. The entire upper rank system is bloated.
Right now they are looking at positions that are currently empty vs actual people reduction
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
A vending machine at the University of Waterloo , Canada, malfunctioned and displayed a rather worrisome error to the users.
Invenda.Vending. FacialRecognition. App.exe — Application Error
No one was aware that the vending machines, which sold snacks like chocolate bars and chips, were using facial recognition software.
Invenda, the company that produces the machines, said,
‘[T]he demographic detection software integrated into the smart vending machine operates entirely locally.’
‘It does not engage in storage, communication, or transmission of any imagery or personally identifiable information,’ it continued.
According to Invenda’s website, the Smart Vending Machines can detect the presence of a person, their estimated age and gender. The website said the ‘software conducts local processing of digital image maps derived from the USB optical sensor in real-time, without storing such data on permanent memory mediums or transmitting it over the Internet to the Cloud.’
And if that’s true, one has to ask:
WHY?
What’s the point of identifying any of that information about a consumer if it’s not going to be used in some sort of consumer trends analysis? Why would anyone spend that much on facial-identification software just to toss the temporary data?
Even if the data is temporary, recording people without permission violates Canada’s privacy laws.
The university is removing the machines.
OBSERVATION - Facial recognition software has been around for a considerable number of years and is a leading technology for biometric identification for a future digital ID system. Many apps in the world now use (or can use) facial ID and feed the results to their parent companies for assessment. Examples include Apple “Photos” program on computers and the funny ‘games’ on Messenger video calls (ID’s face and places funny images on it).
***
The implosion of Google “Gemini” AI has pulled back the curtain as to just how sensitive the AI world is and how easy it is to skew the ‘view point’ of such software. AI has generated a revolution in computing that has companies jumping all over it to gain an edge. One can bet that AI can and will be used to control global narratives on multiple issues - in fact the globalists have said as much. Gemini is further insidious in that it is on track to be inserted into all Google products - like the infamous google search. AI fake news items will grow exponentially to the point where it will be difficult to tell truth from AI.
Orwell was prophetic in the warning of the control of the narrative and destruction of history.
***
BTW, farmer protests continue across Europe with the siege at Brussels of the EU headquarters becoming bigger, with farmers tearing down barriers and spraying riot police with manure.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is initiating Project Tyr, an effort in its infancy to employ Amazon’s artificial intelligence-driven Rekognition cloud service to identify firearms—among other things—and the people associated with them. According to the bureau’s description (on the last page) the software “… offers pre trained and customizable computer vision (CV) capabilities to extract information and insights from lawfully acquired images and videos. Currently in initiation phase to customize to review and identify items containing nudity, weapons, explosives, and other identifying information.”
The news came as a shock to a digital community primarily concerned about privacy and inaccurate facial recognition. Amazon placed a moratorium on law enforcement’s use of Rekognition’s facial recognition software in June 2020, extended the moratorium in 2021 and released a statement explaining the latest FBI effort will only use the program’s other assets.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/02/fbi-reportedly-harvesting-publicly-available-weapon-info/
OBSERVATION - Another round about method that the govt is using to get around the ban on any kind of list of gun ownership. Those the feds are claiming it is for crime prevention - ultimately it will be used to form a basis for forced confiscation and arrests. The regime is not innocent in this effort - disarming a country means they are going to do things that the people don’t want done to them.
The other aspect is the use of facial recognition software to expand the surveillance state, with the future application of social control.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.
Economy-
American consumers are feeling less confident this month as concerns over a possible recession grew despite most recent data pointing to a healthy U.S. economy.
The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 106.7 from a revised 110.9 in January. Analysts had been forecasting that the index remained steady from January to February. The decline in the index comes after three straight months of improvement.
The index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.
The index measuring Americans short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell to 79.8 from 81.5 in January. A reading under 80 often signals an upcoming recession.
Consumers’ view of current conditions also retreated, falling to 147.2 from 154.9.
The decline in consumer confidence this month comes as somewhat of a surprise as the economy continues to show resilience in the face of higher interest rates and inflation.
OBSERVATION - This being a subjective survey does point out the fact that from the point of view of the citizen’s pocket book and spending, things are not as rosy as the regime is trying to paint. The narrative of a ‘resilient’ economy is facing the reality of continued inflation in key sectors - food and housing to name a couple, as well as large, ongoing layoffs and down sizing of businesses.
IN RELATED - During an interview aired on Wednesday’s “PBS NewsHour,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to a question on economic pessimism among Americans by saying that “The pandemic had very significant and lasting impacts…on their lifestyles and attitudes.” And because “some prices that are important to so many Americans” like rent, electricity, and food “are higher than they were before the pandemic” and even though people “are getting ahead” they also “remember that prices were lower. And we’re trying to do everything we can to bring down healthcare costs and other costs that are definite strains on Americans’ budgets.”
Yellen responded, “Well, Americans lived through a lot. The pandemic had very significant and lasting impacts, I think, on their lifestyles and attitudes. Importantly, although inflation has come way down, some prices that are important to so many Americans, like the cost of rent or — and the cost of electricity, food, they’re higher than — those costs are higher than they were before the pandemic. And now, wages are rising more rapidly than prices. So, Americans are getting ahead. But, nevertheless, people remember that prices were lower. And we’re trying to do everything we can to bring down healthcare costs and other costs that are definite strains on Americans’ budgets.”
****
Macy’s plans on closing 50 stores this year and 100 more by 2026. The 150 store closings represent about 30% of the store’s current number and will leave Macy’s with 350 remaining locations nationwide. This includes its store in San Francisco’s Union Square.
OBSERVATION - Evidence of regimes’ ‘resilient’ economy?
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Court Says Pelosi House broke quorum rules and unconstitutionally spent $1.7 Trillion. The Biden administration is unlikely to back down, however, and will surely appeal to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals and, after that, seek review by the United States Supreme Court.
OBSERVATION - So what does this actually mean? Does it also mean that every bill “passed” via proxy vote is also illegal? Common sense says yes, but the congress and the WH will do nothing to address this. We have truly become a lawless country.
***
Mitch McConnell, announced that he will step down from that position in November. Many are noting that this does two things. First, it preemptively strikes at growing dissension over his recent leadership such as the secret border deal that would have codified the continued entrance of nearly two million illegals per year, among other things, and secondly, keeps him in power and capable of trying to sabotage Trump’s president campaign. As a result, many Republican senators are calling for his immediate stepping down as minority leader, so that a new one can get in place and take the reins of both the efforts to retake the senate (which many think McConnell will sabotage) and support the Trump efforts.
RELATED - McConnell to Speaker Johnson is that Ukraine funding is more important than stopping the tsunami of criminally inclined aliens crossing an essentially undefended border.
***
Kamala Harris says the federal government will now pay college students to register voters in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.
OBSERVATION - No doubt this voter registration drive will focus on democrats over republicans and at its face is very likely illegal. the regime likely knows this as well but is playing the string out the lawsuit game to get the registration done while any lawsuit drags out in the court system over multiple months, accomplishing the registration goal either way.
***
On Wednesday, an Illinois judge ruled to have former President Donald J. Trump removed from the state’s ballot. The decision was made based on the “invasion clause” in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.
Cook County Judge Tracie Porter put the ruling on hold so Trump can appeal, according to WBEZ Chicago, which means Trump will remain on the ballot until further notice.
Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, downplayed the decision, attributing it to “an activist Democrat judge in Illinois (who) summarily overruled the state’s board of elections and contradicted earlier decisions from dozens of other state and federal jurisdictions.”
OBSERVATION - SCOTUS is still mulling the verdict from the Colorado case. It is expected that they will rule in favor of Trump, who has not even been charged in a court of law with the crime of insurrection - let alone convicted of such. Again, an activist judge showing that we have become a lawless country.
***
The Fani Willis - Nathan Wade soap opera continues on and it isn’t looking good for the couple. They have clearly been caught in perjury and it all adds up to a possible set of criminal sanctions against them as well as the dissolving of the court case against Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
US President Joe Biden said his annual medical examination had gone well on Wednesday, joking that doctors thought he looked too young as scrutiny increases over the 81-year-old’s age ahead of November’s election.
“They think I look too young,” Biden told reporters when asked if the medical had raised any concerns ahead of a likely rematch with 77-year-old Donald Trump in November.
Biden remains “fit for duty” with no new health worries, his doctor said on Wednesday after the keenly awaited annual examination at the Walter Reed military medical centre.
“He continues to be fit for duty and fully executes all of his responsibilities without any exemptions or accommodations,” White House doctor Kevin O’Connor said in a summary.
OBSERVATION - Of course we believe what they tell us.
Illegal Immigration –
The City of Denver has informed workers that it may be furloughing them—technically still employing them at 0 hours of work—to illegally hire illegal aliens without work permits...
As Denver faces a budget crisis due to 40,000 illegal immigrants arriving in the last year, the city is using its resources to get the migrant population employed, warning hourly workers that they may lose hours to illegal immigrants and using the public school system to help the illegals get work permits, according to emails obtained by The Daily Wire.
Denver’s 9 News reported on Monday that the City of Denver warned its workforce of job cuts, reporting that while the city “says it is NOT laying off employees to pay for the migrant crisis,” it “IS telling hourly employees they may have their hours reduced to zero.” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) told the outlet that because companies are generally barred from hiring illegal immigrants, the city may simply start hiring illegal immigrants itself — even though that is also illegal.
“If the federal government wants to come down and throw the book at us, we’ll deal with the legal costs,” Hickenlooper said.
OBSERVATION - Liberal Blue cities across the country are starting to significantly cut services and employees in order to throw more money at illegals being placed in their cities. NYC is leading the pack so far., critically planning on removing some 6000 police officers to offset the costs of illegals.
China –
China’s PLA activity around Taiwan for February 2024, involved at least 115 PLA aircraft & 26 balloons entering the Taiwan’s ADIZ. Activity has been ongoing for many years now and has gradually increased in numbers over the past year.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
The Russian Air Force reportedly used their latest Su-57 fighter jets in recent combat operations, targeting Ukrainian military positions in the East of Ukraine.
On February 18, escorted by two Su-35 jets, the Su-57 launched a missile strike on Ukrainian targets. Sources suggest that the aircraft utilized the advanced Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, specifically designed for the Su-57 platform.
Operating over occupied territory of the Luhansk region, the Su-57 entered Ukrainian airspace under escort and launched the missile. Due to a technical malfunction, the missile missed its target and crashed in a field.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian Air Forces claim shooting down 2 more Su-34 jets at Mariupol and Bakhmut regions.
It has been estimated that Russia had about 140 Su-34 Fighter Bombers at the start of the war.
+25 Su-34s were lost in 2022 and 2023, and Ukraine has reported shooting down 12 Su-34s within 12 days in 2024
In total, Russia lost about 25% of its Su-34s during the war, and has about 105 Su-34s remaining (on the books anyway). This remaining number is likely on the high side due to many of the planes not being functional due to lack of repair part and even pilots.
Maryinka Axis-
Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade repelled Russian infiltration attempt in Krasnohorivka.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attack at Orlivka village, west of Avdiivka.
Crimean front —
A strong explosion was heard in the Simferopol and Krasnogvardeisky districts, Crimea. Russian ADA units reportedly activated.
Outlook —
Hits against Russia jet fighter/bombers keep coming. Russia push to actually conduct CAS of its ground assault is coming at a high price in the air. What I find interesting is the Russian SU-25 bombers (their A-10 equivalent) are absent from these losses. SU-25 took a lot of heavy hits last year and may be directed to other actions. The Su-34’s carry Russian glide bombs and Russia may be attempting to reach deeper behind Ukraine lines - forcing them to be more exposed to ADA than before.
New to the air war is Russia’s most modern fighter - the stealth Su-57 fighter and use of the equally claimed stealth cruise missile Kh-69. Russia has had a lot of problems with the SU-57 and there are reportedly very few actually in service. This could be an effort to get around the Ukraine ADA shield as well as try to work bugs out of the system, enabling them to get more of these aircraft into the game.
On the ground it is paying an equally high price.
Though pressing Ukraine hard in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions, one has to remember - Ukraine still has the home court advantage. Expect these two regions to continue to see the majority of the heaviest actions.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Tensions remain high over Transnistra’s request for Russian “protection” Rumors of military movement in Moldova are largely that at this stage - rumors. Both Russia and the west are playing this situation up for propaganda use. It is questionable just how capable Russia currently is to protect Transnistria at this stage, with the same for any Ukrainian response. Moldova has a minimal military, essentially a large police force. Romania may interject on the side of Moldova given the historic ties between the two.
Belarus -
Anti-Russian monitors of military activity in Belarus do not show signs of any Russian military build up.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas rejects latest ceasefire offer.
- Families of victims of the Nova festival file lawsuit against Reuters and AP
- Tensions are increasing between Israel and Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas has rejected the latest ceasefire, hostage exchange proposal
***
Families of Nova festival victims filed a lawsuit against Reuters and AP: “Those journalists infiltrated Israeli territory alongside Hamas operatives. Nothing can justify someone documenting a heinous crime in real time.” Five families whose children were murdered at the Nova party on October 7th, filed a lawsuit on Wednesday at the Jerusalem District Court against the Reuters and AP news agencies,
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
***
Military sources said that Sinwar had planned to fight from an underground fortified base called “Room 6” - a place equipped for a long stay, with military personnel and communications lines. IDF forces found this bunker and have been exploiting the intelligence from it in its chase of Sinwar. They report evidence suggests that after being flushed out of “Room 6”, Sinwar has been almost constantly on the move to avoid capture.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
WARNING - Even though these reports are listed under RUMINT, the scenarios and current situation strongly suggests that there is a vein of truth to them.
RUMINT. Iran has authorized Hezbollah to escalate operations along Israel border. This directive emerged from a meeting between Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, driven by Nasrallah’s fears over an impending Israeli invasion.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-789447
RUMINT. Military and security sources have indicated both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for a large-scale conflict.
Israel is reportedly considering a preemptive strike in south Lebanon to “remove Hezbollah from the border.”
In Lebanon, sources report: “Everything is being prepared in the south for war. Arms, defenses, houses, food storage.”
OBSERVATION - Congenitally, in my estimation Israel would be holding back until things have ramped down a bit more in Rafah, placing the window of an Israeli attack down the road a few months. However, I’ve noted probability of a preemptive attack by Hezbollah or a surprise attack by Israel sooner. Israeli rhetoric has been red hot lately and the IAF beginning to put a significant pinch on Hezbollah positions and leadership. Hezbollah is losing in the tit for tat exchange along the border and though it can likely sustain that level of operations for a while, its capability to attack or defend are being erased bit by bit.
RELATED - Jersalem Post reports Israel won’t tolerate continued Hezbollah attacks, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin amid the Biden admiration fears that Israel would launch a summer campaign against the Iranian proxy group.
“The State of Israel will not tolerate threats against its citizens and violations of its sovereignty and will take the measures required to ensure their security,” Gallant said late Wednesday night.
Gallant detailed for Austin the “ongoing attacks conducted by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern communities,” according to the Defense Ministry.
The conversation took place as an anonymous Biden administration official told CNN, “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months.” The official added that such an attack would not happen “imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
Israel won’t tolerate continued Hezbollah attacks, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin amid the Biden admiration fears that Israel would launch a summer campaign against the Iranian proxy group.
“The State of Israel will not tolerate threats against its citizens and violations of its sovereignty and will take the measures required to ensure their security,” Gallant said late Wednesday night.
Gallant detailed for Austin the “ongoing attacks conducted by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern communities,” according to the Defense Ministry.
The conversation took place as an anonymous Biden administration official told CNN, “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months.” The official added that such an attack would not happen “imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-02-29/live-updates-789511
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
***
Israel is entering a dangerous phase and must exercise the utmost caution during the upcoming Muslim month of Ramadan, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on Tuesday.
Speaking at a situational assessment in advance of Ramadan at the IDF’s Central Command, Gallant said Israel sees a “growing preoccupation of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to turn the month of Ramadan into the second phase of October 7 and set fire to the area.”
***
U.S. intelligence officials and senior members of the Biden administration expressed concern over a possible IDF incursion into Lebanon if diplomatic efforts to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border fail, CNN reported on Thursday.
“We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months,” one senior Biden administration official said. “Not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r16eji6np
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli airstrikes this morning targeted a vehicle in area of Qusseir (South-West Homs) as well as buildings in Damascus. One reported dead. This is the second raid in that area in one week. The strike targeted three sites in the Syrian capital including a building that may have been a command center for Iranian militias, the Syrian opposition group Voice of the Capital said on Wednesday evening.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
US State Department: We are ready to hold more individuals accountable regarding extremist violence in the West Bank
NOTE - This is part of a broader effort to stop future Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
A threshold date of March 11 - the start or Ramadan - is fast approaching. On one hand Israel appears to be ready to enter Rafah by/on that date. On the other hand, Hezbollah may utilize the increased religious fervor to muster a preemptive strike against Israel during that month.
It has been the common consensus that Israel would likely wait until after Rafah operations have spun down before building toward an attack to remove Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. I think the new strategic norm that Israel isn’t going to back down from international condemnation in order to cleanse Hezbollah as a threat is coming to dawn on them and their Iranian masters. Either way, as summer approaches the proximity of an expanded war to the north becomes more and more probable.
Houthi’s have been relatively quiet of the past day or so. I expect that they will resume their efforts to close the Red Sea to shipping.
Iran –
See RUMINT under Israel above - has Iran given the GO order for Hezbollah to go fully to war against Israel.
Sure......
It's the same old song and dance every time some data collection is exposed, that they were never honest about in the first place.
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