CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
The Utah legislature passed the “Utah Constitutional Sovereignty Act” in late January, and on the 31st it was signed into law by Republican Governor Spencer Cox. The new law, which has garnered national media scrutiny, provides a legal framework for Utah officials to refuse the enforcement or assistance of federal government actions that violate the state’s sovereignty.
According to the text of the bill, S.B. 57, “establishes a framework for the Legislature, by concurrent resolution, to prohibit the enforcement of a federal directive within the state by government officers if the Legislature determines the federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty.”
The bill can be acted upon if, it says, “A federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty if the federal directive restricts or infringes upon: (a) a power or a right reserved to the state by the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution; or (b) the state’s rights or interests to provide for the health, safety, and welfare and promote the prosperity of the state’s inhabitants.”
In a statement released with the signing, Cox explained, “Balancing power between state and federal sovereignty is an essential part of our constitutional system. This legislation gives us another way to push back on federal overreach and maintain that balance.”
OBSERVATION - This trend is growing in red to leaning red states, to draw a line in the sand against the expansion of fed govt into states rights. It lays another foundation stone for separation should the deep stated govt try to over reach its powers.
***
Radical islamists may take the opportunity of Ramadan starting on March 11th to ramp up their protests with increased violence. This would appear in their pro-hamas protests, and likely spill over into the night hours - much like Antifa’s tactics during BLM based riots of 2020.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Speaking at a situational assessment in advance of Ramadan at the IDF’s Central Command, Gallant said Israel sees a “growing preoccupation of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to turn the month of Ramadan into the second phase of October 7 and set fire to the area.”
OBSERVATION - Threats of terrorism have traditionally been higher during Ramadan - as religious fervor spikes among moslems. That threat is not isolated with Israel, as the global pro-hamas / pro-islam protests across Europe and the US have laid the groundwork for significant terror incidents there as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is about to undergo a major restructuring, according to a document obtained by Fox News.
The service calls for reducing its force by about 24,000, or about 5%. These cuts will only affect posts that have remained empty and not actual soldiers.
OBSERVATION - Not stated, the Army could also fold the colors of various units, deactivating them and moving any soldiers in those units into others.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Trump took Michigan with 68% - against 27% for Nikki Haley. Michigan marks Haley’s fifth successive loss in the primary contests.
****
Johnson met with biden over the budget and border impasse. No evidence of just what path is being pursued, but there are some indicators that the border issue is trending over Ukraine.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden won 80% of the Michigan vote, according to projections, but the “uncommitted” exceeded expectations with 13%.
His campaign will pay close attention to see if that result in the key swing state will spread nationwide.
The “uncommitted” campaign is one based on opposition to US support of Israel in its war in Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The fact that 13% voted ‘uncommitted’ is a warning shot to biden. The campaign behind the uncommitted are also pushing the no ceasefire, no vote for biden, effort. This effort’s core are moslems and islamophiles in the democrat left, a demographic biden can’t afford to lose given the apparent shift other demographic towards Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Recent Gallup poll indicates that a whopping 28% of Americans now believe immigration is the most important problem our country faces today. That’s followed by government (in itself) at 20% and the economy at 12%. What’s more, a record number of Americans — 55% — say “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” is a “critical threat” to our vital interests. 31% call the illegal immigration problem “important,” while just 14% say it’s “not important.”
***
In a news paper story that is designed to tug at the emotions, first responders are reportedly having to seek mental health counseling because of the reportedly human tragedy being played out at Eagle Pass. They are claiming substantial numbers are now drowning in their efforts to cross the Rio Grande (unsubstantiated by other sources) and are having to do recovery operations.
I think it is safe to say that if these conditions were as bad as they say, biden regime would be on it like white on rice.
***
(FO) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to hold a trilateral meeting on migration with officials from Mexico and Guatemala today.
Why It Matters: According to the press release, the meeting will focus on “migration management” and “[expanding] lawful pathways” for immigrants.
OBSERVATION - This sounds a lot like a way to streamline the flow of illegals into the US and nothing to do with stopping it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian government will ban gasoline exports for six months beginning March 1.
This is due to increasing breakdowns of foreign equipment at oil depots and ongoing drone attacks on the Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
The measure will not affect the agreed volumes of supplies to the EAEU countries, as well as to Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and unrecognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 10 Shahed drones overnight.
The Russian air offensive continues to sustain significant losses. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have downed a pair of Russian Su-34s yesterday. Air Force of Ukraine has now destroyed 10 Russian aircraft in 10 days. Also of note, Russia hasn’t moved another A50 AWAC system to replace the one recently shot down. This means that Russian fighters/bombers are flying mostly blind to the situation around them.
As news continues to come out on the Russian offensive, more and more evidence that Russia is sustaining very heavy losses. One video released by Ukraine shows two dozen armored vehicles (Tanks, APC, trucks etc) destroyed on a half mile long section of road west of Avdiivka.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces made minor gains north of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka -
Russian forces continue to press hard westward in an effort to keep Ukraine from reestablishing a defensive line. In doing so they are receiving heavy losses and just how much longer they can pursue this tactic is becoming shorter as a result of those losses. So far, the action has been relatively successful at keeping Ukrainian forces off balance.
Outlook —
I wonder just how willing Russian pilots are in pursuing Russia’s air offensive. While numbers of remaining aircraft are up for debate, what is known is that of that number a substantial percentage are inoperable due to repair issues / no parts. Another uncertainty is just how many pilots are available to fly the airworthy jets. It is clear that CAS has been an important factor in Russia being able to punch thru Ukrainian defensed at focused locations. But it is apparent that they are flying right into the maul of an air defense network that they likely have never trained against. Historically, Russian military exercises have been highly scripted with little room for unexpected simulated combat scenarios. What remains to be seen is if the combat experience curve can help these pilots overcome Ukraine air defense measures, or will they continue to falter like the Black Sea Fleet.
There has also been a significant pause in Russia’s deep missile campaign against Ukraine. With a major ground offensive underway, one would expect a significant uptick in these attacks, trying to disrupt Ukrainian reserves and supply operations. So far, mostly pesky drones and some missiles directed more at civilian targets.
Weather is still favorable for vehicle movements, so Russia will push it as hard as they can before the spring rains kick in and every thing turns into a major quagmire again.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Participants in the congress of deputies of all levels opening in Transnistria intend to ask Russia for help, - says the draft resolution of the congress, which the deputies received for review. Ask the Federation Council and the State Duma of the Russian Federation to implement measures to protect Transnistria
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah escalated its rocket attacks with Israel equally retaliating.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday warned that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are trying to use Ramadan to inflame the region so as to achieve another October 7 disaster against Israel.
According to Gallant, their hope is to provoke Palestinians in the West Bank, Hezbollah, and Arabs and Muslims across the region to attack and turn their rage on Israel, using the Temple Mount and tensions in the West Bank as an excuse.
***
Reports of armed Gazan clans are battling for power. Many are affiliated with ISIS, the Islamic Jihad & Al-Qaeda.
OBSERVATION - There is a vacuum of power in Gaza that these more radical islamic groups are rushing in to fill. No news on IDF views of these small fights, but as long as they don’t turn their weapons on them.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Hamas managed a fire a few rockets at Ashkelon.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Hamas terror group says its Lebanon branch fired a barrage rockets at the Kiryat Shmona area this morning. In a statement, Hamas claims to have fired 40 Grad rockets from Lebanon at IDF bases near Kiryat Shmona. The IDF identified only some 10 rockets crossing the border, one of which struck a building in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage but no injuries.
The Israeli army: 20 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards our territory. We intercepted a number of them
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. aircraft and a coalition warship shot down five Iranian-backed Houthi one-way attack (OWA) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in the Red Sea.
The German frigate “Hessen” shot down 2 Houthi anti-ship missiles or drones in the Red Sea overnight.
Yemeni sources - Iran promised the Houthis to double their support with missiles and submarines after the American and British strikes
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
In the north, Hezbollah continues to have its leadership, command and control and logistical elements thinned out. Loss of those elements will hamstring much of Hezbollah’s response to the eventual invasion of S Lebanon by Israel forces. Israel is gaining valuable intelligence on locations of Hezbollah facilities to load into their data base and I’m not sure just how understanding Hezbollah is of this fact.
Misc of Note –
A powerful blizzard is set to strike California on Thursday as residents are being warned to brace for 12 feet of snow and 120 mile-per-hour winds.
The storm heading toward the West Coast will shower low-elevation areas with rain and coat the Northwest and northern Rockies with blankets of snow.
More severe impacts will be seen in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains - which are set to face blizzard conditions.
The looming snowstorm will be the strongest of its kind since this time last year, when a siege of storms hit the Sierra’s in late February and early March.
Areas in the northern and central Sierra have received blizzard warnings from Thursday morning to Sunday morning, according to the Weather Channel.
OBSERVATION - Donner, party of 12, Donner, party of 12.
Seriously, if you have to travel over the Sierras, take this warning seriously.
They should also reduce the number of flag officers by 20% for starters while they are at it. The entire upper rank system is bloated.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
A vending machine at the University of Waterloo , Canada, malfunctioned and displayed a rather worrisome error to the users.
Invenda.Vending. FacialRecognition. App.exe — Application Error
No one was aware that the vending machines, which sold snacks like chocolate bars and chips, were using facial recognition software.
Invenda, the company that produces the machines, said,
‘[T]he demographic detection software integrated into the smart vending machine operates entirely locally.’
‘It does not engage in storage, communication, or transmission of any imagery or personally identifiable information,’ it continued.
According to Invenda’s website, the Smart Vending Machines can detect the presence of a person, their estimated age and gender. The website said the ‘software conducts local processing of digital image maps derived from the USB optical sensor in real-time, without storing such data on permanent memory mediums or transmitting it over the Internet to the Cloud.’
And if that’s true, one has to ask:
WHY?
What’s the point of identifying any of that information about a consumer if it’s not going to be used in some sort of consumer trends analysis? Why would anyone spend that much on facial-identification software just to toss the temporary data?
Even if the data is temporary, recording people without permission violates Canada’s privacy laws.
The university is removing the machines.
OBSERVATION - Facial recognition software has been around for a considerable number of years and is a leading technology for biometric identification for a future digital ID system. Many apps in the world now use (or can use) facial ID and feed the results to their parent companies for assessment. Examples include Apple “Photos” program on computers and the funny ‘games’ on Messenger video calls (ID’s face and places funny images on it).
***
The implosion of Google “Gemini” AI has pulled back the curtain as to just how sensitive the AI world is and how easy it is to skew the ‘view point’ of such software. AI has generated a revolution in computing that has companies jumping all over it to gain an edge. One can bet that AI can and will be used to control global narratives on multiple issues - in fact the globalists have said as much. Gemini is further insidious in that it is on track to be inserted into all Google products - like the infamous google search. AI fake news items will grow exponentially to the point where it will be difficult to tell truth from AI.
Orwell was prophetic in the warning of the control of the narrative and destruction of history.
***
BTW, farmer protests continue across Europe with the siege at Brussels of the EU headquarters becoming bigger, with farmers tearing down barriers and spraying riot police with manure.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is initiating Project Tyr, an effort in its infancy to employ Amazon’s artificial intelligence-driven Rekognition cloud service to identify firearms—among other things—and the people associated with them. According to the bureau’s description (on the last page) the software “… offers pre trained and customizable computer vision (CV) capabilities to extract information and insights from lawfully acquired images and videos. Currently in initiation phase to customize to review and identify items containing nudity, weapons, explosives, and other identifying information.”
The news came as a shock to a digital community primarily concerned about privacy and inaccurate facial recognition. Amazon placed a moratorium on law enforcement’s use of Rekognition’s facial recognition software in June 2020, extended the moratorium in 2021 and released a statement explaining the latest FBI effort will only use the program’s other assets.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/02/fbi-reportedly-harvesting-publicly-available-weapon-info/
OBSERVATION - Another round about method that the govt is using to get around the ban on any kind of list of gun ownership. Those the feds are claiming it is for crime prevention - ultimately it will be used to form a basis for forced confiscation and arrests. The regime is not innocent in this effort - disarming a country means they are going to do things that the people don’t want done to them.
The other aspect is the use of facial recognition software to expand the surveillance state, with the future application of social control.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.
Economy-
American consumers are feeling less confident this month as concerns over a possible recession grew despite most recent data pointing to a healthy U.S. economy.
The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 106.7 from a revised 110.9 in January. Analysts had been forecasting that the index remained steady from January to February. The decline in the index comes after three straight months of improvement.
The index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.
The index measuring Americans short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell to 79.8 from 81.5 in January. A reading under 80 often signals an upcoming recession.
Consumers’ view of current conditions also retreated, falling to 147.2 from 154.9.
The decline in consumer confidence this month comes as somewhat of a surprise as the economy continues to show resilience in the face of higher interest rates and inflation.
OBSERVATION - This being a subjective survey does point out the fact that from the point of view of the citizen’s pocket book and spending, things are not as rosy as the regime is trying to paint. The narrative of a ‘resilient’ economy is facing the reality of continued inflation in key sectors - food and housing to name a couple, as well as large, ongoing layoffs and down sizing of businesses.
IN RELATED - During an interview aired on Wednesday’s “PBS NewsHour,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to a question on economic pessimism among Americans by saying that “The pandemic had very significant and lasting impacts…on their lifestyles and attitudes.” And because “some prices that are important to so many Americans” like rent, electricity, and food “are higher than they were before the pandemic” and even though people “are getting ahead” they also “remember that prices were lower. And we’re trying to do everything we can to bring down healthcare costs and other costs that are definite strains on Americans’ budgets.”
Yellen responded, “Well, Americans lived through a lot. The pandemic had very significant and lasting impacts, I think, on their lifestyles and attitudes. Importantly, although inflation has come way down, some prices that are important to so many Americans, like the cost of rent or — and the cost of electricity, food, they’re higher than — those costs are higher than they were before the pandemic. And now, wages are rising more rapidly than prices. So, Americans are getting ahead. But, nevertheless, people remember that prices were lower. And we’re trying to do everything we can to bring down healthcare costs and other costs that are definite strains on Americans’ budgets.”
****
Macy’s plans on closing 50 stores this year and 100 more by 2026. The 150 store closings represent about 30% of the store’s current number and will leave Macy’s with 350 remaining locations nationwide. This includes its store in San Francisco’s Union Square.
OBSERVATION - Evidence of regimes’ ‘resilient’ economy?
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Court Says Pelosi House broke quorum rules and unconstitutionally spent $1.7 Trillion. The Biden administration is unlikely to back down, however, and will surely appeal to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals and, after that, seek review by the United States Supreme Court.
OBSERVATION - So what does this actually mean? Does it also mean that every bill “passed” via proxy vote is also illegal? Common sense says yes, but the congress and the WH will do nothing to address this. We have truly become a lawless country.
***
Mitch McConnell, announced that he will step down from that position in November. Many are noting that this does two things. First, it preemptively strikes at growing dissension over his recent leadership such as the secret border deal that would have codified the continued entrance of nearly two million illegals per year, among other things, and secondly, keeps him in power and capable of trying to sabotage Trump’s president campaign. As a result, many Republican senators are calling for his immediate stepping down as minority leader, so that a new one can get in place and take the reins of both the efforts to retake the senate (which many think McConnell will sabotage) and support the Trump efforts.
RELATED - McConnell to Speaker Johnson is that Ukraine funding is more important than stopping the tsunami of criminally inclined aliens crossing an essentially undefended border.
***
Kamala Harris says the federal government will now pay college students to register voters in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.
OBSERVATION - No doubt this voter registration drive will focus on democrats over republicans and at its face is very likely illegal. the regime likely knows this as well but is playing the string out the lawsuit game to get the registration done while any lawsuit drags out in the court system over multiple months, accomplishing the registration goal either way.
***
On Wednesday, an Illinois judge ruled to have former President Donald J. Trump removed from the state’s ballot. The decision was made based on the “invasion clause” in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.
Cook County Judge Tracie Porter put the ruling on hold so Trump can appeal, according to WBEZ Chicago, which means Trump will remain on the ballot until further notice.
Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, downplayed the decision, attributing it to “an activist Democrat judge in Illinois (who) summarily overruled the state’s board of elections and contradicted earlier decisions from dozens of other state and federal jurisdictions.”
OBSERVATION - SCOTUS is still mulling the verdict from the Colorado case. It is expected that they will rule in favor of Trump, who has not even been charged in a court of law with the crime of insurrection - let alone convicted of such. Again, an activist judge showing that we have become a lawless country.
***
The Fani Willis - Nathan Wade soap opera continues on and it isn’t looking good for the couple. They have clearly been caught in perjury and it all adds up to a possible set of criminal sanctions against them as well as the dissolving of the court case against Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
US President Joe Biden said his annual medical examination had gone well on Wednesday, joking that doctors thought he looked too young as scrutiny increases over the 81-year-old’s age ahead of November’s election.
“They think I look too young,” Biden told reporters when asked if the medical had raised any concerns ahead of a likely rematch with 77-year-old Donald Trump in November.
Biden remains “fit for duty” with no new health worries, his doctor said on Wednesday after the keenly awaited annual examination at the Walter Reed military medical centre.
“He continues to be fit for duty and fully executes all of his responsibilities without any exemptions or accommodations,” White House doctor Kevin O’Connor said in a summary.
OBSERVATION - Of course we believe what they tell us.
Illegal Immigration –
The City of Denver has informed workers that it may be furloughing them—technically still employing them at 0 hours of work—to illegally hire illegal aliens without work permits...
As Denver faces a budget crisis due to 40,000 illegal immigrants arriving in the last year, the city is using its resources to get the migrant population employed, warning hourly workers that they may lose hours to illegal immigrants and using the public school system to help the illegals get work permits, according to emails obtained by The Daily Wire.
Denver’s 9 News reported on Monday that the City of Denver warned its workforce of job cuts, reporting that while the city “says it is NOT laying off employees to pay for the migrant crisis,” it “IS telling hourly employees they may have their hours reduced to zero.” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) told the outlet that because companies are generally barred from hiring illegal immigrants, the city may simply start hiring illegal immigrants itself — even though that is also illegal.
“If the federal government wants to come down and throw the book at us, we’ll deal with the legal costs,” Hickenlooper said.
OBSERVATION - Liberal Blue cities across the country are starting to significantly cut services and employees in order to throw more money at illegals being placed in their cities. NYC is leading the pack so far., critically planning on removing some 6000 police officers to offset the costs of illegals.
China –
China’s PLA activity around Taiwan for February 2024, involved at least 115 PLA aircraft & 26 balloons entering the Taiwan’s ADIZ. Activity has been ongoing for many years now and has gradually increased in numbers over the past year.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
The Russian Air Force reportedly used their latest Su-57 fighter jets in recent combat operations, targeting Ukrainian military positions in the East of Ukraine.
On February 18, escorted by two Su-35 jets, the Su-57 launched a missile strike on Ukrainian targets. Sources suggest that the aircraft utilized the advanced Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, specifically designed for the Su-57 platform.
Operating over occupied territory of the Luhansk region, the Su-57 entered Ukrainian airspace under escort and launched the missile. Due to a technical malfunction, the missile missed its target and crashed in a field.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian Air Forces claim shooting down 2 more Su-34 jets at Mariupol and Bakhmut regions.
It has been estimated that Russia had about 140 Su-34 Fighter Bombers at the start of the war.
+25 Su-34s were lost in 2022 and 2023, and Ukraine has reported shooting down 12 Su-34s within 12 days in 2024
In total, Russia lost about 25% of its Su-34s during the war, and has about 105 Su-34s remaining (on the books anyway). This remaining number is likely on the high side due to many of the planes not being functional due to lack of repair part and even pilots.
Maryinka Axis-
Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade repelled Russian infiltration attempt in Krasnohorivka.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attack at Orlivka village, west of Avdiivka.
Crimean front —
A strong explosion was heard in the Simferopol and Krasnogvardeisky districts, Crimea. Russian ADA units reportedly activated.
Outlook —
Hits against Russia jet fighter/bombers keep coming. Russia push to actually conduct CAS of its ground assault is coming at a high price in the air. What I find interesting is the Russian SU-25 bombers (their A-10 equivalent) are absent from these losses. SU-25 took a lot of heavy hits last year and may be directed to other actions. The Su-34’s carry Russian glide bombs and Russia may be attempting to reach deeper behind Ukraine lines - forcing them to be more exposed to ADA than before.
New to the air war is Russia’s most modern fighter - the stealth Su-57 fighter and use of the equally claimed stealth cruise missile Kh-69. Russia has had a lot of problems with the SU-57 and there are reportedly very few actually in service. This could be an effort to get around the Ukraine ADA shield as well as try to work bugs out of the system, enabling them to get more of these aircraft into the game.
On the ground it is paying an equally high price.
Though pressing Ukraine hard in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions, one has to remember - Ukraine still has the home court advantage. Expect these two regions to continue to see the majority of the heaviest actions.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Tensions remain high over Transnistra’s request for Russian “protection” Rumors of military movement in Moldova are largely that at this stage - rumors. Both Russia and the west are playing this situation up for propaganda use. It is questionable just how capable Russia currently is to protect Transnistria at this stage, with the same for any Ukrainian response. Moldova has a minimal military, essentially a large police force. Romania may interject on the side of Moldova given the historic ties between the two.
Belarus -
Anti-Russian monitors of military activity in Belarus do not show signs of any Russian military build up.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas rejects latest ceasefire offer.
- Families of victims of the Nova festival file lawsuit against Reuters and AP
- Tensions are increasing between Israel and Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
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Hamas has rejected the latest ceasefire, hostage exchange proposal
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Families of Nova festival victims filed a lawsuit against Reuters and AP: “Those journalists infiltrated Israeli territory alongside Hamas operatives. Nothing can justify someone documenting a heinous crime in real time.” Five families whose children were murdered at the Nova party on October 7th, filed a lawsuit on Wednesday at the Jerusalem District Court against the Reuters and AP news agencies,
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
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Military sources said that Sinwar had planned to fight from an underground fortified base called “Room 6” - a place equipped for a long stay, with military personnel and communications lines. IDF forces found this bunker and have been exploiting the intelligence from it in its chase of Sinwar. They report evidence suggests that after being flushed out of “Room 6”, Sinwar has been almost constantly on the move to avoid capture.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
WARNING - Even though these reports are listed under RUMINT, the scenarios and current situation strongly suggests that there is a vein of truth to them.
RUMINT. Iran has authorized Hezbollah to escalate operations along Israel border. This directive emerged from a meeting between Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, driven by Nasrallah’s fears over an impending Israeli invasion.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-789447
RUMINT. Military and security sources have indicated both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for a large-scale conflict.
Israel is reportedly considering a preemptive strike in south Lebanon to “remove Hezbollah from the border.”
In Lebanon, sources report: “Everything is being prepared in the south for war. Arms, defenses, houses, food storage.”
OBSERVATION - Congenitally, in my estimation Israel would be holding back until things have ramped down a bit more in Rafah, placing the window of an Israeli attack down the road a few months. However, I’ve noted probability of a preemptive attack by Hezbollah or a surprise attack by Israel sooner. Israeli rhetoric has been red hot lately and the IAF beginning to put a significant pinch on Hezbollah positions and leadership. Hezbollah is losing in the tit for tat exchange along the border and though it can likely sustain that level of operations for a while, its capability to attack or defend are being erased bit by bit.
RELATED - Jersalem Post reports Israel won’t tolerate continued Hezbollah attacks, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin amid the Biden admiration fears that Israel would launch a summer campaign against the Iranian proxy group.
“The State of Israel will not tolerate threats against its citizens and violations of its sovereignty and will take the measures required to ensure their security,” Gallant said late Wednesday night.
Gallant detailed for Austin the “ongoing attacks conducted by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern communities,” according to the Defense Ministry.
The conversation took place as an anonymous Biden administration official told CNN, “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months.” The official added that such an attack would not happen “imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
Israel won’t tolerate continued Hezbollah attacks, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin amid the Biden admiration fears that Israel would launch a summer campaign against the Iranian proxy group.
“The State of Israel will not tolerate threats against its citizens and violations of its sovereignty and will take the measures required to ensure their security,” Gallant said late Wednesday night.
Gallant detailed for Austin the “ongoing attacks conducted by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern communities,” according to the Defense Ministry.
The conversation took place as an anonymous Biden administration official told CNN, “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months.” The official added that such an attack would not happen “imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-02-29/live-updates-789511
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
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Israel is entering a dangerous phase and must exercise the utmost caution during the upcoming Muslim month of Ramadan, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on Tuesday.
Speaking at a situational assessment in advance of Ramadan at the IDF’s Central Command, Gallant said Israel sees a “growing preoccupation of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to turn the month of Ramadan into the second phase of October 7 and set fire to the area.”
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U.S. intelligence officials and senior members of the Biden administration expressed concern over a possible IDF incursion into Lebanon if diplomatic efforts to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border fail, CNN reported on Thursday.
“We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months,” one senior Biden administration official said. “Not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r16eji6np
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli airstrikes this morning targeted a vehicle in area of Qusseir (South-West Homs) as well as buildings in Damascus. One reported dead. This is the second raid in that area in one week. The strike targeted three sites in the Syrian capital including a building that may have been a command center for Iranian militias, the Syrian opposition group Voice of the Capital said on Wednesday evening.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
US State Department: We are ready to hold more individuals accountable regarding extremist violence in the West Bank
NOTE - This is part of a broader effort to stop future Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
A threshold date of March 11 - the start or Ramadan - is fast approaching. On one hand Israel appears to be ready to enter Rafah by/on that date. On the other hand, Hezbollah may utilize the increased religious fervor to muster a preemptive strike against Israel during that month.
It has been the common consensus that Israel would likely wait until after Rafah operations have spun down before building toward an attack to remove Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. I think the new strategic norm that Israel isn’t going to back down from international condemnation in order to cleanse Hezbollah as a threat is coming to dawn on them and their Iranian masters. Either way, as summer approaches the proximity of an expanded war to the north becomes more and more probable.
Houthi’s have been relatively quiet of the past day or so. I expect that they will resume their efforts to close the Red Sea to shipping.
Iran –
See RUMINT under Israel above - has Iran given the GO order for Hezbollah to go fully to war against Israel.