Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Google Gemini made a belly flop into the computer world over the past weeks and there is no real effort to correct its unbelievable bias any time soon. As it will be linked into the massive Google network, its bias will expand exponentially - along with it the malinformation (vs misinformation) the mind-numbed sheeple will encounter. This is just the kind of Orwellian tool the globalists want.
***
Christine LeGarde, a globalist French politician who has been president of the European Central Bank since 2019, has recently announced that the European Union is getting closer to launching its new central bank digital currency.
Analysts are pointing out the key to the coming digital system. They will tokenize your assets. The other part of the deal is that they will also tokenize your existence through the issuance of a digital ID. Any asset, living or nonliving, can be tokenized.
What is a digital token?
Wireless token technology has been around since 2008. A wireless token is like a serial number printed on a dollar bill, including a series of letters and numbers, only with tokenization those letters and numbers can change every ten seconds. These changes provide authentication.
At some point they will engineer a switcheroo, offering you X amount of tokenized assets in return for your paper dollars.
OBSERVATION - There are many scenarios for a driver to CBDC and eventual social status controlled global digital currencies. Many of the scenarios are based upon a global economic disaster driving the switch to digital. This one matches more the policies of incrementalism that has bore fruit for the left for the past couple decades. Small changes, not big enough to cause disturbances in the “force” so to speak and generate push back, but allow the sheeple to readjust to the new way of doing business, then the next step - etc, until the ultimate goal is reached.
IMHO, we are seeing multiple scenarios due to the fact that the globalists want to have alternatives and back up plans should something pop up that is out of their control, they can still redirect to their ultimate goal(s).
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
The Temecula Valley Unified School District, though a relatively small school system (approximately 26,000.students), has just made a huge difference in the lives of every family in the country that believes in parental choice and in preventing the promotion of the Critical Race Theory agenda.
In 2022, TVUSD chose to take on the dominant leftist politics of California through two courageous actions. They banned the teaching of Critical Race Theory (CRT) in their schools and required school staff members to notify parents immediately if any student identifies as a gender other than the one on their birth certificate. This policy is nearly identical to policies previously approved by both the Chino Valley and Murrieta Valley School Districts in California.
The reaction was as could be expected. California Attorney General Rob Bonta opened an investigation, followed by a lawsuit being served on TVUSD by the Temecula Valley Educators Association and a group of political activists. This group of activists asked for an immediate injunction against TVUSD. On Friday, February 23, a California court ruled in favor of TVUSD. The court affirmed the district’s parental notification policy as well as their policy of prohibiting the teaching of CRT.
OBSERVATION - Normally, this item would have been considered under the long obsolete term - “Culture Wars”. However this has merged into many other categories and in this case a developing issue in the growing CW2. Temecula is a very red, rural area of Kalifornia and like other red counties, have been fighting its political war against blue democrats in Sacramento. The growing divide in Kalifornia indicates that if a nation - wide separation of sorts occurs, it will not be clean red state vs blue state, given vast tracts of land in these blue states that are heavily aligned with other red states. If anything, these red counties will likely bear the heaviest portions of any conflict as the blue urban areas that dominate state politics seek to obtain resources for their sustainment of their populations with the red counties seeking to contain the mobs that would likely try to move out an into the counties to take by force.
***
Far-left pro-Palestine protesters confronted attendees arriving at the Beverly Wilshire hotel where there was an event featuring former speaker pelosi.
OBSERVATION - This is an example of the smaller scale protests I talked about in a previous post. Again, what is interesting here is the attack by these associated pro-islamic leftists on a leftist herself. This is not unlike the Antifa attacks on the mayor of Portland for not supporting their cause enough. These leftist (and islamist sympathizers) demand old guard democrats to dump their support of Israel.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 26, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
Some analysts are noting increasing parallels to the great recession of 2008 and 2009. One indicator is foreclosures are really starting to spike here in 2024. In fact, the number of new foreclosure filings in the U.S. just jumped 10 percent in the recent month. Hand in hand are commercial foreclosures that are increasing as well.
As I’ve noted a lot, the housing market is a window to the health of the economy as a whole, as it touches many sectors as well as being a major employer. At present, very few can afford a new home, let alone a used home - both for the price as well as mortgage payments. And this also reflects across the economy as to how people are faring under the conditions. Over all prognosis is not very good for the short or medium term IMHO
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
NY Post reports that Ronna McDaniel has officially announces her resignation as RNC chair to be effective March 8th.
OBSERVATION - This will trigger to a degree a small civil war within the RNC, given that there are many RINO anti-trumpers in the hierarchy. Hopefully, a replacement that has the view of the majority of the republican party in mind, and not the aristocracy of the establishment in mind, willing to take the fight to the democrats rather than be Wilber Milktoast.
****
The handwriting is on the wall - Koch network stops spending on Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign after her loss in South Carolina — Politico
***
See biden - johnson meeting on budget below under ‘biden’
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden is expected to meet with congressional leaders including Speaker Johnson today in a bid to unlock billions in financial aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and to avert a government shutdown.
OBSERVATION - I do not hold out much for this meeting. Missing from the WH release is any talk about really securing the border. If brought up biden will push for more money to ‘process’ illegals as well as throw at those here to keep them pacified for the moment. Johnson is under great pressure to force biden to close the border. Irresistible force meeting immovable object? I think Johnson has a high probability of folding and in doing so see his seat vacated. This would toss the House into convulsions given that there is even a smaller majority of republican than last time due to retirements and expulsions. There is still the specter of rino congressional members voting for a democrat speaker candidate which would really mess things up going into the elections. Top this off by blowing away the March 1 deadline for the budget, generating a partial govt shutdown. It could get really messy fast.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Venezuela is reportedly refusing to accept its citizens who have been deported from the U.S. and Mexico, further forcing illegal immigration as a key issue in the 2024 presidential race.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro introduced the ban after D.C. reimposed some economic sanctions it had previously lifted on the Central American country, according to a report last week in The Wall Street Journal.
About 13% of all U.S. Customs and Border Protection encounters this fiscal year have been with Venezuelan nationals for a total of more than 160,000 encounters, per government data. That number is likely higher as CBP has yet to release data for the month of February.
Fewer than 2,000 Venezuelan migrants have returned to their home country over the past four months, according to NewsNation. Venezuela has rejected all U.S. deportation flights over the past four weeks due to American sanctions on state-owned mining companies. The U.S. had lifted those sanctions after Maduro promised free and fair elections, which have not been held.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent the criminals northward to the US. Deliberate and with the knowledge of the US govt, who have willingly ‘processed’ them into the US to prey on US citizens. Note the Venezuelan gangs operating in New York and the recent murder of a young college woman by a Venezuelan who was captured at at the border and released, arrested in New York and released only to kill.
The refusal of illegals only leads to one thing protective of Americans - the establishment of interim prison facilities to hold these arrestees until they can be pumped out of country towards Venezuela in some manner.
***
The aftermath of a record-high influx of migrants coming into the country via the southern border is straining budgets in some of the nation’s big cities — and putting pressure on the federal government to chip in.
This stress on blue cities could well be a killer political ad for Trump, who can point out the crime and cost problems, in comparison to the cheap fix of completion of the border fence.
China –
China sends warships to Middle East, not in support of allied efforts against Houthi’s but more against piracy from Somalia.
***
China’s Communist party has sharpened its rhetoric towards Taiwan, raising the pressure on the country as its president-elect Lai Ching-te prepares to take office in May.
Wang Huning, China’s most senior official in charge of Taiwan policy after President Xi Jinping, said Beijing “must resolutely fight ‘Taiwan independence’ separatism”, according to an official account of the party’s annual Taiwan work conference, which ended in Beijing on Friday.
China must also “further grasp the strategic initiative to achieve the complete unification of the motherland”, the state news agency Xinhua quoted Wang as saying.
Political analysts said Wang’s language was markedly tougher than pronouncements from last year’s conference, and confirmed expectations that Beijing would step up efforts to push Taiwan into acquiescing to unification after Lai’s victory in the January 13 presidential election.
https://www.ft.com/content/28172cc1-b3b7-4a72-88b0-5a963d0ce823
OBSERVATION - The tougher language is expected due to the win by Lai Ching-te’s coalition. It also marks a step closer to a potential move against Taiwan in a more aggressive manner.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin once again is threatening NATO with nuclear war if Ukraine gains membership and NATO forces are stationed there.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 14 Shahed drones, 3 of 3 Kh-59 missiles, also Russia launched 2 S-300 missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missile and Kh-31P missile.
Maryinka Axis-
Russian Ground Forces are claiming to have made significant advances to the north of Marinka in the Donetsk Region, with heavy fighting reported as Russian mechanized elements are claimed to have entered the outskirts of the City of Krasnohorivka from the south and east.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces pressing attacks to the southwest of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian Forces have withdrawn from Lastochkyne village, to hold Orlivka-Tonenke-Berdychi line of defense. Russia now claims control of the city. Essentially, Ukraine is allowing the salient to collapse to shorten its defensive lines.
Outlook —
Ukraine is struggling on several fronts to contain Russia advances, due largely to lack of artillery ammo. The superiority of Ukrainian artillery support has been a cornerstone of their defenses since early in the war when they were down 10:1. Now roughly 3:1 with higher Russian support along axis, it it hard to maintain its positions.
One game changer is the Kersch Bridge - one of the primary lifelines of supplies to Russian forces.. Taking it out would force supplies to come in from the east along more exposed routes or ferried across the Sea of Azov in naval landing ships and other cargo vessels.
Another strategic game changer is the receipt and use of Iranian long range missiles that are forcing the wests’ hands on getting similar to Ukraine. Only time will tell.
Europe / NATO General –
New data show that Russia is engaging in GPS jamming in the area of the Kirkenes Airport, Norway practically every day now. There have been 44 cases so far this year.
Russia recently threatened Norway over Svalbard Islands.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- IAF strikes hit large Hezbollah ammo storage sites.
- Airstrikes on Houthi targets yesterday have slowed shipping attacks for the moment.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
A woman kidnapped from Israel and brought to Gaza by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7 has given birth while in captivity, the wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a letter released on Wednesday by the premier’s office. The woman who gave birth in Gaza was reportedly a foreign worker in one of the Israeli towns bordering the Hamas-run coastal enclave until her Oct. 7 abduction.
“One of the kidnapped women was pregnant. She gave birth to her baby in Hamas captivity,” Sara Netanyahu wrote in a heartfelt letter addressed to US First Lady Jill Biden.
****
The Biden administration asked Israel to stop targeting members of the Hamas-run civilian police force who escort aid trucks in Gaza, warning that a “total breakdown of law and order” is significantly exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the enclave, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
U.S. officials say they are increasingly concerned “that Gaza is turning into Mogadishu” as a security vacuum and desperation have opened the door for armed gangs to attack and loot aid trucks, putting even more pressure on the Strip’s already strained humanitarian system.
OBSERVATION - Hamas morphs into what ever form necessary to survive. Dress up as civilians or pretend to be ‘civilian police’ or even hole up in a hospital. What ever is necessary to maintain presence, power and survive the Israeli operations to eliminate them.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Reuters: The Israeli army says it bombed Hezbollah air defense systems in the Lebanese Bekaa. This follows an shooting down of an Israeli drone.
A series of Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon has targeted the area of Sahl al-Adous near Baalbek. Massive secondary explosions being reported.
Israeli Defense Minister - “We plan to increase the intensity of fire against Lebanese Hezbollah”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian PM Shtayyeh presents resignation of his government to President Abbas.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The recent US/UK airstrikes against the Houthi have created a delay in their attacks. However, it is foolish to think they will last long and that more air strikes need to be conducted in a more continuous manner. Expect to see Houthi ramping back up their attacks in the next day or so.
Unusual quiet on the other end of the ‘resistance’ as attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq have slowed way down.
Venezuela -
See “Illegals Immigration” above over refusal to receive any more deported Venezuelans.
Central / South America General-
Massive protests in São Paulo as Brazilians have had enough with their antisemitic President Lula. They are also calling for his impeachment in response to his authoritarian crackdown against human rights & freedom of speech. Yesterday’s protest is reported to be the largest one ever held there.
OBSERVATION - The Brazilian govt has taken a hard, leftist totalitarian turn, causing a great deal of growing civil strife.
things could get nasty in the short term.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European farmers sprayed police with liquid manure and hurled eggs and flares during another wave of clashes in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, February 26, 2024. The confrontation occurred as the European Union’s agriculture ministers convened to address the agricultural sector’s grievances, including red tape and competition from low-cost imports.
Central to the farmers’ grievances are the challenges posed by bureaucratic hurdles and the threat of cheap imports from countries not bound by the EU’s stringent agricultural standards. These issues have culminated in significant economic pressures on local farmers, who argue that current policies undermine their competitiveness and sustainability.
The demonstration in Brussels is a potent symbol of the agricultural community’s demand for fairer policies that support local farmers against the backdrop of global market dynamics.
OBSERVATION - Global warming standard hitting European farmers hard and protests have continued throughout Europe.
The only conclusion is that the WEF/Globalists are seeking to create a manufactured global famine as part of their goals to reduce the world’s population.
***
Word out is that Australia will come out with their digital currency some time this summer. Australia has been one of the most compliant countries to WEF demands. If they are successful in rolling this out, it is likely more countries like Canada and in Europe will follow suit.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 26, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Hazmat teams were on the scene at the Florida home of Donald Trump Jr. after he opened a letter and white powder came out. Trump Jr., the eldest son of former President Donald Trump, opened the envelope, causing the white powder to fly out, as reported by one of the sources. A representative for the former president’s son stated that it remains unclear what exactly the substance was but confirmed that Trump Jr.’s life does not appear to be in danger. The letter also reportedly contained a death threat.
OBSERVATION - A warning shot - very likely.
***
An explosive device detonated outside the office of Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, a Republican, in Montgomery. The bombing didn’t manage to injure anyone and is under investigation.
OBSERVATION - Republican AG’s have been fighting a war with the regime over its policies and should consider upping their security as it appear we may be on the cusp of a more lethal leftist actions.
Economy-
Continued reading of different economists views of where the economy is headed. Some saying rosy, others very dark. Each relaying on their favorite indicators - which over all seem to contradict each other.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Reading reports of a new ‘spike’ in the latest wuhan version in China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Arab/islamic voters in Michigan have been organizing for months to send Joe Biden a message during the state’s primary on Tuesday: “No ceasefire. No vote.” In the final hours before primary election day, on Monday, Khalid Turaani stood outside the Islamic Center of Detroit and distributed pamphlets encouraging people to vote “uncommitted” on their ballot papers.
“We’re doing all that we can to ensure that Biden is a one-term president,” Mr Turaani, the co-organiser behind Abandon Biden, told the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68409546
OBSERVATION - Radical islam is flexing its muscles this political cycle in an effort to gain sufficient leverage to force America into a state where it can take its next steps and force shriah law on it. This movement is not unlike what is happening in Europe.
***
Reports that Speaker Johnson may be designing ‘mini-buses’ to vote on to avoid a partial govt shut down on March 1. Not much word on content.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden will visit the southern border (Brownsville, TX) on Feb. 29, the White House announced, the same day that former President Donald Trump will go to Eagle Pass, Texas, to highlight the worsening border crisis.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
China –
See Philippines below on latest aggressions.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Phillipines –
The Philippine Coast Guard Spokesman for the West Philippine Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela said the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) likely jammed the automatic identification system (AIS) of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels during their rotational deployments to the Scarborough Shoal. The vessels were using AIS, but their signals dropped out at the same time as Chinese press releases that they had “successfully repelled illegal intrusions” into the Scarborough Shoal.
OBSERVATION - This is technically an act of war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 13 Shahed drones, 2 of 4 Kh-59 missiles, also Russian launched several Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles and Kh-31P missile
Ukrainian air forces shot down Russian Su-34 in the eastern regions.
There are reports that some of the drones fired overnight came from Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. This has not been confirmed, but a more likely observations is that Russia has not been shy about tracking these drones and cruise missiles over Moldova (violating their airspace) to work an end around Ukraine air defenses.
Reports showing that Russia still hasn’t learned its lessons. From many fronts, reports of columns of tanks/APCs being stopped and eliminated by Ukraine fire as they charge into kill zones with inadequate support.
However, Russia continues to press forward with its offensive actions across all axises.
Outlook —
With relatively supportive weather, Russia is pressing forward with its offensive, forcing Ukraine back in many sectors. In spite of ammo shortage, Ukraine is still able to inflict high losses on the Russian forces as they continue to make the same tactical errors made worse by inexperience. Continued heavy Russian losses will eventually dry out the Russian offensive and their pushes could expose flanks and logistical supply lines - further stalling the offensive.
Ukraine has nailed another Russian jet - indicating that Russian is continuing to force its CAS forward to support the assaults. Russia’s problem is that these jets are pretty much irreplaceable and can’t really be ‘replaced’ like Russian do with tanks (i.e. T54/55 and T62).
Ukraine has also gone full production on its version of the Iranian Shahed drone. Along with other drones, Russia will be more hard pressed to defend strategic industries deep in Russia with its shrinking ADA assets.
Forecast more of the same, as Russia maintains the initiative in the east and south.
Europe / NATO General –
Emmanuel Macron overnight - France does not exclude sending troops to Ukraine. “I say to you very clearly: on this point France will maintain its position - it is a strategic ambiguity and I’m fully behind it”. Victory over Russia is essential for European security.
***
Hungary has officially ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, 188 voted for and 6 against. Hungary was the last country to ratify.
Sweden will now officially become a NATO member.
***
Stranger and stranger. Jacob Rothschild reportedly died just three days after two black horses were spotted with a ‘captured’ white horse and a Black Flag outside Buckingham Palace. Does the Death of Jacob Rothschild explain this rare sighting of Kings Guard in London over the weekend?
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Mixed results on cease fire discussions.
- Hezbollah launches a large rocket barrage, IAF strikes deep into Lebanon in response.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
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ABC, according to an Israeli political source - Netanyahu was surprised that Biden expressed his hope that a ceasefire would be reached by Monday.
Qatari mediators have informed Israel that Hamas officials are “disappointed” with the framework of the hostage deal that was presented in Paris last Friday & emphasized that there is a significant gap between the proposal and their demands, 2 Israeli officials told
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The IDF is confident that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is still hiding in the tunnels beneath Khan Yunis, the Washington Post reported.
The report added that Sinwar is “surrounded by a human shield of hostages intended to deter an operation to capture or kill him.”
US officials said they agree with the Israeli assessment that Sinwar is hiding under Khan Yunis and has surrounded himself with hostages.
In recent days, some officials have speculated that Sinwar may have moved a few miles away to Rafah, on the border with Egypt. Israeli officials have publicly disputed press claims that Sinwar escaped over the border.
OBSERVATION - The hunt for Sinwar is growing to levels of that for Saddam Hussain. As the war has pounded Gaza, support for Hamas as gotten tenuous as they hid behind civilians and even steal food and other relief supplies only to sell them back to the gazans at high prices.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
The IDF and IAF conducted operations against Hamas infrastructure and terror operatives in the Zaytun area in Gaza City on Monday.
Israeli forces located a weapons manufacturing facility and rocket launchers used by the terror organization and identified a number of terrorists inside a tunnel shaft, which they promptly destroyed. The terrorists were eliminated.
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IDF spokesperson writes in the Wall Street Journal that their military has ‘discovered that most homes in Gaza have terror tunnels underneath or weapon caches inside, and the majority of schools, mosques, hospitals and international institutions have been used by Hamas for their military operations’
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The IDF just exposed a 10km-long Hamas terror tunnel in n Gaza that passed under a hospital and a university. Hamas used it to move terrorists between brigades.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Hezbollah said it fired some 60 Katyusha rockets at an army base in N Israel. There are no reports of injuries in the barrage.
Israel conducted its deepest strikes into Lebanon yet by hitting targets in the Bekaa Valley, killing two Hezbollah members. The Bekaa Valley has long been considered a Hezbollah stronghold and Israel choosing to attack it signals a definite expanse and escalation of the ongoing conflict far beyond the south Lebanon border region, given it lies a full 100km from said border.
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Israeli air strikes in Al-Majdil, Lebanon reportedly eliminated Hassan Salama, commander of Hezbollah’s east sector.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis are believed to have damaged 4 underwater communication cables in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The cables are critical global infrastructure which facilitate internet connections between parts of Asia and parts of Europe.
Currently, there are no cable repair companies willing to go into the area and repair the cables due to the ongoing attacks by the Houthis.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Even though IAF has been operating in N Gaza for several months now, they continue to uncover substantial tunnel and bunker networks. Hamas for the most part, is getting eaten up in piecemeal fashion.
Israel continues it battlefield preparations to enter Rafah, striking strong point on the city’s perimeter as well as Hamas facilities in the heart of the city. Evacuation of residents and refugees will still take probably more than a week before Israel can attack the city in earnest.
Houthi’s have executed one of their warnings - hitting undersea optic cables. They also managed to fire a few drones too. But the severing of these cables needs to be a big wakeup call to the west - quit handling them with kids gloves. The Houthi are winning this conflict.
Venezuela -
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia suspended its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia.
NOTE - CSTO was Russia’s equivalent of NATO following the break up of the Soviet Union. Russia tossed Armenia under the bus last year when Azerbaijan moved to retake Nagoro-Kambach region that Russia promised to assist Armenia to protect it. Rumors are that Armenia is looking to Europe for military assistance to defend against further Azeri aggression.