Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European farmers sprayed police with liquid manure and hurled eggs and flares during another wave of clashes in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, February 26, 2024. The confrontation occurred as the European Union’s agriculture ministers convened to address the agricultural sector’s grievances, including red tape and competition from low-cost imports.
Central to the farmers’ grievances are the challenges posed by bureaucratic hurdles and the threat of cheap imports from countries not bound by the EU’s stringent agricultural standards. These issues have culminated in significant economic pressures on local farmers, who argue that current policies undermine their competitiveness and sustainability.
The demonstration in Brussels is a potent symbol of the agricultural community’s demand for fairer policies that support local farmers against the backdrop of global market dynamics.
OBSERVATION - Global warming standard hitting European farmers hard and protests have continued throughout Europe.
The only conclusion is that the WEF/Globalists are seeking to create a manufactured global famine as part of their goals to reduce the world’s population.
***
Word out is that Australia will come out with their digital currency some time this summer. Australia has been one of the most compliant countries to WEF demands. If they are successful in rolling this out, it is likely more countries like Canada and in Europe will follow suit.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 26, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Hazmat teams were on the scene at the Florida home of Donald Trump Jr. after he opened a letter and white powder came out. Trump Jr., the eldest son of former President Donald Trump, opened the envelope, causing the white powder to fly out, as reported by one of the sources. A representative for the former president’s son stated that it remains unclear what exactly the substance was but confirmed that Trump Jr.’s life does not appear to be in danger. The letter also reportedly contained a death threat.
OBSERVATION - A warning shot - very likely.
***
An explosive device detonated outside the office of Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, a Republican, in Montgomery. The bombing didn’t manage to injure anyone and is under investigation.
OBSERVATION - Republican AG’s have been fighting a war with the regime over its policies and should consider upping their security as it appear we may be on the cusp of a more lethal leftist actions.
Economy-
Continued reading of different economists views of where the economy is headed. Some saying rosy, others very dark. Each relaying on their favorite indicators - which over all seem to contradict each other.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Reading reports of a new ‘spike’ in the latest wuhan version in China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Arab/islamic voters in Michigan have been organizing for months to send Joe Biden a message during the state’s primary on Tuesday: “No ceasefire. No vote.” In the final hours before primary election day, on Monday, Khalid Turaani stood outside the Islamic Center of Detroit and distributed pamphlets encouraging people to vote “uncommitted” on their ballot papers.
“We’re doing all that we can to ensure that Biden is a one-term president,” Mr Turaani, the co-organiser behind Abandon Biden, told the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68409546
OBSERVATION - Radical islam is flexing its muscles this political cycle in an effort to gain sufficient leverage to force America into a state where it can take its next steps and force shriah law on it. This movement is not unlike what is happening in Europe.
***
Reports that Speaker Johnson may be designing ‘mini-buses’ to vote on to avoid a partial govt shut down on March 1. Not much word on content.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden will visit the southern border (Brownsville, TX) on Feb. 29, the White House announced, the same day that former President Donald Trump will go to Eagle Pass, Texas, to highlight the worsening border crisis.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
China –
See Philippines below on latest aggressions.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Phillipines –
The Philippine Coast Guard Spokesman for the West Philippine Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela said the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) likely jammed the automatic identification system (AIS) of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels during their rotational deployments to the Scarborough Shoal. The vessels were using AIS, but their signals dropped out at the same time as Chinese press releases that they had “successfully repelled illegal intrusions” into the Scarborough Shoal.
OBSERVATION - This is technically an act of war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea Defense Minister said. The containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which he said has helped stabilize prices there. Ukraine already identified several North Korean munitions in the battlefield, but has said the most of them were inaccurate
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 13 Shahed drones, 2 of 4 Kh-59 missiles, also Russian launched several Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles and Kh-31P missile
Ukrainian air forces shot down Russian Su-34 in the eastern regions.
There are reports that some of the drones fired overnight came from Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. This has not been confirmed, but a more likely observations is that Russia has not been shy about tracking these drones and cruise missiles over Moldova (violating their airspace) to work an end around Ukraine air defenses.
Reports showing that Russia still hasn’t learned its lessons. From many fronts, reports of columns of tanks/APCs being stopped and eliminated by Ukraine fire as they charge into kill zones with inadequate support.
However, Russia continues to press forward with its offensive actions across all axises.
Outlook —
With relatively supportive weather, Russia is pressing forward with its offensive, forcing Ukraine back in many sectors. In spite of ammo shortage, Ukraine is still able to inflict high losses on the Russian forces as they continue to make the same tactical errors made worse by inexperience. Continued heavy Russian losses will eventually dry out the Russian offensive and their pushes could expose flanks and logistical supply lines - further stalling the offensive.
Ukraine has nailed another Russian jet - indicating that Russian is continuing to force its CAS forward to support the assaults. Russia’s problem is that these jets are pretty much irreplaceable and can’t really be ‘replaced’ like Russian do with tanks (i.e. T54/55 and T62).
Ukraine has also gone full production on its version of the Iranian Shahed drone. Along with other drones, Russia will be more hard pressed to defend strategic industries deep in Russia with its shrinking ADA assets.
Forecast more of the same, as Russia maintains the initiative in the east and south.
Europe / NATO General –
Emmanuel Macron overnight - France does not exclude sending troops to Ukraine. “I say to you very clearly: on this point France will maintain its position - it is a strategic ambiguity and I’m fully behind it”. Victory over Russia is essential for European security.
***
Hungary has officially ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, 188 voted for and 6 against. Hungary was the last country to ratify.
Sweden will now officially become a NATO member.
***
Stranger and stranger. Jacob Rothschild reportedly died just three days after two black horses were spotted with a ‘captured’ white horse and a Black Flag outside Buckingham Palace. Does the Death of Jacob Rothschild explain this rare sighting of Kings Guard in London over the weekend?
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Mixed results on cease fire discussions.
- Hezbollah launches a large rocket barrage, IAF strikes deep into Lebanon in response.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
ABC, according to an Israeli political source - Netanyahu was surprised that Biden expressed his hope that a ceasefire would be reached by Monday.
Qatari mediators have informed Israel that Hamas officials are “disappointed” with the framework of the hostage deal that was presented in Paris last Friday & emphasized that there is a significant gap between the proposal and their demands, 2 Israeli officials told
***
The IDF is confident that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is still hiding in the tunnels beneath Khan Yunis, the Washington Post reported.
The report added that Sinwar is “surrounded by a human shield of hostages intended to deter an operation to capture or kill him.”
US officials said they agree with the Israeli assessment that Sinwar is hiding under Khan Yunis and has surrounded himself with hostages.
In recent days, some officials have speculated that Sinwar may have moved a few miles away to Rafah, on the border with Egypt. Israeli officials have publicly disputed press claims that Sinwar escaped over the border.
OBSERVATION - The hunt for Sinwar is growing to levels of that for Saddam Hussain. As the war has pounded Gaza, support for Hamas as gotten tenuous as they hid behind civilians and even steal food and other relief supplies only to sell them back to the gazans at high prices.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
The IDF and IAF conducted operations against Hamas infrastructure and terror operatives in the Zaytun area in Gaza City on Monday.
Israeli forces located a weapons manufacturing facility and rocket launchers used by the terror organization and identified a number of terrorists inside a tunnel shaft, which they promptly destroyed. The terrorists were eliminated.
***
IDF spokesperson writes in the Wall Street Journal that their military has ‘discovered that most homes in Gaza have terror tunnels underneath or weapon caches inside, and the majority of schools, mosques, hospitals and international institutions have been used by Hamas for their military operations’
***
The IDF just exposed a 10km-long Hamas terror tunnel in n Gaza that passed under a hospital and a university. Hamas used it to move terrorists between brigades.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
Hezbollah said it fired some 60 Katyusha rockets at an army base in N Israel. There are no reports of injuries in the barrage.
Israel conducted its deepest strikes into Lebanon yet by hitting targets in the Bekaa Valley, killing two Hezbollah members. The Bekaa Valley has long been considered a Hezbollah stronghold and Israel choosing to attack it signals a definite expanse and escalation of the ongoing conflict far beyond the south Lebanon border region, given it lies a full 100km from said border.
***
Israeli air strikes in Al-Majdil, Lebanon reportedly eliminated Hassan Salama, commander of Hezbollah’s east sector.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis are believed to have damaged 4 underwater communication cables in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The cables are critical global infrastructure which facilitate internet connections between parts of Asia and parts of Europe.
Currently, there are no cable repair companies willing to go into the area and repair the cables due to the ongoing attacks by the Houthis.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Even though IAF has been operating in N Gaza for several months now, they continue to uncover substantial tunnel and bunker networks. Hamas for the most part, is getting eaten up in piecemeal fashion.
Israel continues it battlefield preparations to enter Rafah, striking strong point on the city’s perimeter as well as Hamas facilities in the heart of the city. Evacuation of residents and refugees will still take probably more than a week before Israel can attack the city in earnest.
Houthi’s have executed one of their warnings - hitting undersea optic cables. They also managed to fire a few drones too. But the severing of these cables needs to be a big wakeup call to the west - quit handling them with kids gloves. The Houthi are winning this conflict.
Venezuela -
Report: Venezuela’s “violent death” rate has hit a two-decade low because all the criminals are migrating to a town near you
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia suspended its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia.
NOTE - CSTO was Russia’s equivalent of NATO following the break up of the Soviet Union. Russia tossed Armenia under the bus last year when Azerbaijan moved to retake Nagoro-Kambach region that Russia promised to assist Armenia to protect it. Rumors are that Armenia is looking to Europe for military assistance to defend against further Azeri aggression.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
The Utah legislature passed the “Utah Constitutional Sovereignty Act” in late January, and on the 31st it was signed into law by Republican Governor Spencer Cox. The new law, which has garnered national media scrutiny, provides a legal framework for Utah officials to refuse the enforcement or assistance of federal government actions that violate the state’s sovereignty.
According to the text of the bill, S.B. 57, “establishes a framework for the Legislature, by concurrent resolution, to prohibit the enforcement of a federal directive within the state by government officers if the Legislature determines the federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty.”
The bill can be acted upon if, it says, “A federal directive violates the principles of state sovereignty if the federal directive restricts or infringes upon: (a) a power or a right reserved to the state by the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution; or (b) the state’s rights or interests to provide for the health, safety, and welfare and promote the prosperity of the state’s inhabitants.”
In a statement released with the signing, Cox explained, “Balancing power between state and federal sovereignty is an essential part of our constitutional system. This legislation gives us another way to push back on federal overreach and maintain that balance.”
OBSERVATION - This trend is growing in red to leaning red states, to draw a line in the sand against the expansion of fed govt into states rights. It lays another foundation stone for separation should the deep stated govt try to over reach its powers.
***
Radical islamists may take the opportunity of Ramadan starting on March 11th to ramp up their protests with increased violence. This would appear in their pro-hamas protests, and likely spill over into the night hours - much like Antifa’s tactics during BLM based riots of 2020.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Speaking at a situational assessment in advance of Ramadan at the IDF’s Central Command, Gallant said Israel sees a “growing preoccupation of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to turn the month of Ramadan into the second phase of October 7 and set fire to the area.”
OBSERVATION - Threats of terrorism have traditionally been higher during Ramadan - as religious fervor spikes among moslems. That threat is not isolated with Israel, as the global pro-hamas / pro-islam protests across Europe and the US have laid the groundwork for significant terror incidents there as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is about to undergo a major restructuring, according to a document obtained by Fox News.
The service calls for reducing its force by about 24,000, or about 5%. These cuts will only affect posts that have remained empty and not actual soldiers.
OBSERVATION - Not stated, the Army could also fold the colors of various units, deactivating them and moving any soldiers in those units into others.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Trump took Michigan with 68% - against 27% for Nikki Haley. Michigan marks Haley’s fifth successive loss in the primary contests.
****
Johnson met with biden over the budget and border impasse. No evidence of just what path is being pursued, but there are some indicators that the border issue is trending over Ukraine.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden won 80% of the Michigan vote, according to projections, but the “uncommitted” exceeded expectations with 13%.
His campaign will pay close attention to see if that result in the key swing state will spread nationwide.
The “uncommitted” campaign is one based on opposition to US support of Israel in its war in Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The fact that 13% voted ‘uncommitted’ is a warning shot to biden. The campaign behind the uncommitted are also pushing the no ceasefire, no vote for biden, effort. This effort’s core are moslems and islamophiles in the democrat left, a demographic biden can’t afford to lose given the apparent shift other demographic towards Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Recent Gallup poll indicates that a whopping 28% of Americans now believe immigration is the most important problem our country faces today. That’s followed by government (in itself) at 20% and the economy at 12%. What’s more, a record number of Americans — 55% — say “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” is a “critical threat” to our vital interests. 31% call the illegal immigration problem “important,” while just 14% say it’s “not important.”
***
In a news paper story that is designed to tug at the emotions, first responders are reportedly having to seek mental health counseling because of the reportedly human tragedy being played out at Eagle Pass. They are claiming substantial numbers are now drowning in their efforts to cross the Rio Grande (unsubstantiated by other sources) and are having to do recovery operations.
I think it is safe to say that if these conditions were as bad as they say, biden regime would be on it like white on rice.
***
(FO) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to hold a trilateral meeting on migration with officials from Mexico and Guatemala today.
Why It Matters: According to the press release, the meeting will focus on “migration management” and “[expanding] lawful pathways” for immigrants.
OBSERVATION - This sounds a lot like a way to streamline the flow of illegals into the US and nothing to do with stopping it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian government will ban gasoline exports for six months beginning March 1.
This is due to increasing breakdowns of foreign equipment at oil depots and ongoing drone attacks on the Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
The measure will not affect the agreed volumes of supplies to the EAEU countries, as well as to Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and unrecognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 10 Shahed drones overnight.
The Russian air offensive continues to sustain significant losses. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have downed a pair of Russian Su-34s yesterday. Air Force of Ukraine has now destroyed 10 Russian aircraft in 10 days. Also of note, Russia hasn’t moved another A50 AWAC system to replace the one recently shot down. This means that Russian fighters/bombers are flying mostly blind to the situation around them.
As news continues to come out on the Russian offensive, more and more evidence that Russia is sustaining very heavy losses. One video released by Ukraine shows two dozen armored vehicles (Tanks, APC, trucks etc) destroyed on a half mile long section of road west of Avdiivka.
Bakhmut -
Russian forces made minor gains north of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka -
Russian forces continue to press hard westward in an effort to keep Ukraine from reestablishing a defensive line. In doing so they are receiving heavy losses and just how much longer they can pursue this tactic is becoming shorter as a result of those losses. So far, the action has been relatively successful at keeping Ukrainian forces off balance.
Outlook —
I wonder just how willing Russian pilots are in pursuing Russia’s air offensive. While numbers of remaining aircraft are up for debate, what is known is that of that number a substantial percentage are inoperable due to repair issues / no parts. Another uncertainty is just how many pilots are available to fly the airworthy jets. It is clear that CAS has been an important factor in Russia being able to punch thru Ukrainian defensed at focused locations. But it is apparent that they are flying right into the maul of an air defense network that they likely have never trained against. Historically, Russian military exercises have been highly scripted with little room for unexpected simulated combat scenarios. What remains to be seen is if the combat experience curve can help these pilots overcome Ukraine air defense measures, or will they continue to falter like the Black Sea Fleet.
There has also been a significant pause in Russia’s deep missile campaign against Ukraine. With a major ground offensive underway, one would expect a significant uptick in these attacks, trying to disrupt Ukrainian reserves and supply operations. So far, mostly pesky drones and some missiles directed more at civilian targets.
Weather is still favorable for vehicle movements, so Russia will push it as hard as they can before the spring rains kick in and every thing turns into a major quagmire again.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Participants in the congress of deputies of all levels opening in Transnistria intend to ask Russia for help, - says the draft resolution of the congress, which the deputies received for review. Ask the Federation Council and the State Duma of the Russian Federation to implement measures to protect Transnistria
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah escalated its rocket attacks with Israel equally retaliating.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday warned that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are trying to use Ramadan to inflame the region so as to achieve another October 7 disaster against Israel.
According to Gallant, their hope is to provoke Palestinians in the West Bank, Hezbollah, and Arabs and Muslims across the region to attack and turn their rage on Israel, using the Temple Mount and tensions in the West Bank as an excuse.
***
Reports of armed Gazan clans are battling for power. Many are affiliated with ISIS, the Islamic Jihad & Al-Qaeda.
OBSERVATION - There is a vacuum of power in Gaza that these more radical islamic groups are rushing in to fill. No news on IDF views of these small fights, but as long as they don’t turn their weapons on them.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Hamas managed a fire a few rockets at Ashkelon.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Hamas terror group says its Lebanon branch fired a barrage rockets at the Kiryat Shmona area this morning. In a statement, Hamas claims to have fired 40 Grad rockets from Lebanon at IDF bases near Kiryat Shmona. The IDF identified only some 10 rockets crossing the border, one of which struck a building in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage but no injuries.
The Israeli army: 20 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards our territory. We intercepted a number of them
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. aircraft and a coalition warship shot down five Iranian-backed Houthi one-way attack (OWA) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in the Red Sea.
The German frigate “Hessen” shot down 2 Houthi anti-ship missiles or drones in the Red Sea overnight.
Yemeni sources - Iran promised the Houthis to double their support with missiles and submarines after the American and British strikes
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
In the north, Hezbollah continues to have its leadership, command and control and logistical elements thinned out. Loss of those elements will hamstring much of Hezbollah’s response to the eventual invasion of S Lebanon by Israel forces. Israel is gaining valuable intelligence on locations of Hezbollah facilities to load into their data base and I’m not sure just how understanding Hezbollah is of this fact.
Misc of Note –
A powerful blizzard is set to strike California on Thursday as residents are being warned to brace for 12 feet of snow and 120 mile-per-hour winds.
The storm heading toward the West Coast will shower low-elevation areas with rain and coat the Northwest and northern Rockies with blankets of snow.
More severe impacts will be seen in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains - which are set to face blizzard conditions.
The looming snowstorm will be the strongest of its kind since this time last year, when a siege of storms hit the Sierra’s in late February and early March.
Areas in the northern and central Sierra have received blizzard warnings from Thursday morning to Sunday morning, according to the Weather Channel.
OBSERVATION - Donner, party of 12, Donner, party of 12.
Seriously, if you have to travel over the Sierras, take this warning seriously.