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Threat Matrix 2024
Jan 1, 2024 | Self

Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla

Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024

For historical reference TM2023 link is 

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Military/Veterans; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS: globalism; news; threatmatrix; threats; tm
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: Godzilla
Thank you Godzilla, your kindness is appreciated.

Just FYI...this is an excellent website for ongoing terrorism in various European countries. I check it regularly as I have family in Germany.

https://medforth.blog/

181 posted on 02/10/2024 1:13:10 PM PST by Oorang (Politicians:-a feeble band of lowly reptiles who shun the light and who lurk in their own dens. )
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To: Godzilla
Montana news:

Officials: Mexican drug cartel targets Native American reservations with fentanyl

182 posted on 02/10/2024 1:28:17 PM PST by Oorang (Politicians:-a feeble band of lowly reptiles who shun the light and who lurk in their own dens. )
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To: Oorang

We’ve been hammered statewide, but reservations have really been hit.


183 posted on 02/10/2024 3:08:38 PM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

***
NYPD arrested a number of anti-Israel protesters in Brooklyn, New York City after their protest turned violent. Still looking to see if any other Saturday protest did the same. More pro-hamas protests are expected across the country today.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***
(H/T Oorang) At the recent National Sheriff’s Association Conference in Washington, D.C., Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones expressed grave concerns regarding the safety of the American electoral process and broader national security threats.
Based on briefings with FBI Director Christopher Wray, Sheriff Jones has taken the unprecedented step of offering disaster preparedness training to civilians in the county.

The Gateway Pundit reported earlier that Sheriff Richard Jones of Butler County, Ohio, is sounding the alarm over national security threats posed by illegal immigrants and potential terrorist activities within the country.

“They’re here not to be our friends. Some of them are coming because they’re wanting to come here to the best country in the world. The way we see, some are coming here to do harm to us. And we were told by the FBI director, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” Jones warned.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/must-watch-butler-county-sheriff-richard-jones-warns/

OBSERVATION - It has been pretty clear for some time now that terror cells from the likes of China and Iran have infiltrated and embedded themselves into the US. So i consider that there is a significant degree of factualness to what the FBI may have briefed them on. biden’s dumpster fire of existence is growing by leaps and bounds and this invites terrorists to become emboldened to move forward with their plans.

OTOH, I’m concerned that there may well be a degree of fear mongering by the FBI, whose major efforts to counter terror has been going after religious groups, grandmas and ‘white terrorists’. So I am struggling with accepting the FBI’s warning at face value - do they have an anterior motive?


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Little new has come out concerning the passenger on board a Lufthansa flight from Thailand to Germany that died Thursday, as blood gushed out of his mouth and nose. Some apparently informed individuals on the webs indicate that the death is being diagnosed as being due to massive bleeding from an esophageal bleed (Esophageal varices), which are horrendous and often fatal, even in the best of circumstances. It’s often seen in those with chronic alcohol intake.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/esophageal-varices/symptoms-causes/syc-20351538

OBSERVATION - If this turns out to be Esophageal varices, I don’t expect to see much more about this. OTOH, if Ebola or the like, then the news should be bubbling.

***
A study conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Food and Drug Administration has shown that the risk of myocarditis following mRNA COVID vaccination is around 133x greater than the background risk in the population.
This means COVID-19 vaccination increases the risk of suffering myocarditis, an autoimmune disease causing inflammation of the heart, by 13,200%.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346

OBSERVATION - this from a publication from Jan 2022. They knew that this jab was deadly, but kept the information out of public view until recently.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***
Biden and the DNC have opened a federal investigation into RFK Jr. in an attempt to remove him from the ballot.

Initial numbers following the biden classified documents scandal and the declared mental illness that the prosecutor used to defer prosecution - followed by biden’s disastrous presser that evening has shown Trump to have made a big jump in public opinion over biden. These are just initial numbers and no major polls yet.

Remember, polls also serve the purpose of shaping public opinion and if the major polls in the next days reflect a major Trump spike - it could be in order to apply more leverage for biden to step down.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****
Spin of tornadic measure continues around Hue’s biden report and questions over his mental faculties. Dems trying hard to deflect demands for a mental health evaluation.

More commentary going on about how ‘black’ biden’s eyes were during that presser. This is indicative of enlarged pupils. Many suspect that this is evidence of his deteriorating mental state and the drugs given to keep him going. Also note that he is commonly seen wearing dark sun glasses in and out doors - again suggesting pupil dilation.


Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

Intercepts in the AZ region are pushing new high levels. Waiting to see what the latest BP reports to confirm.

NGOs are being uncovered having illegal ‘camps’ in national forest areas in an effort to hide them. Other facilities being used by NGOS to house illegals are refusing congressional oversight visits by the NGOs that operate them.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.

Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Busy night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 40 of 45 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Kherson and Dnipro city areas among the target areas.

Ukraine kept Russian ADA active in occupied Mariupol.

Bakhmut -

Back in the news as Russia renews attacks in the area.

Avdiivka -

While Ukraine hold, its supply lines are increasingly coming under attack as Russia presses the flanks of the salient.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

With the exception of Avdiivka, most of the Russian attacks are characterized as being “positional “ battles, one s where local tactically advantageous terrain for defensive operations is fought over.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is entering its 5th month.

Key overnight developments -

- Israel moves closer to conducting combat operations in Rafah.

- UNRWA is being shown to be more and more complicit and supportive of Hamas with the reveal of a significant tunnel network beneath its Gaza HQ.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

Israeli strikes on the Gaza strip during the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others, Hamas’ armed-wing Al Qassam Brigades announced Sunday over the group’s Telegram channel.

Israel revealed late this week that 31 of the 136 remaining hostages have been confirmed dead, leaving 105 remaining to be returned to Israel from Hamas terrorist clutches.

***

British Foreign Secretary: We are deeply concerned about the possibility of a military attack on Rafah, where more than half of Gaza’s population is taking refuge.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.

***
New evidence of the cooperation between UNRWA and the Islamist terror organization Hamas came to light after the IDF discovered a tunnel shaft near a UNRWA school during its operations in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military announced on Saturday.

The tunnel shaft, near the school, led to an underground shelter that served as a valuable asset for Hamas’s military intelligence wing, according to the IDF. The route connected to the tunnel also led to a path beneath UNRWA’s central headquarters in the Gaza Strip.

Additionally, IDF soldiers discovered electric infrastructure inside the tunnels that were connected to the UNRWA headquarters building, indicating that UNRWA assets were supplying Hamas with electricity.

UNRWA Commissioner-General - “The agency’s employees have left the main headquarters in Gaza City since October 12, and we do not know what is underneath”

***
Egypt is threatening to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Israeli troops are sent into the densely populated Gaza border town of Rafah, and says fighting there could force the closure of the territory’s main aid supply route, two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat said Sunday.

The threat to suspend the Camp David Accords, a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly a half-century, came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said sending troops into Rafah was necessary to win the four-month-old war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister - “I presented to my Iranian counterpart our vision for finding a sustainable solution that will restore calm to the south within the framework of Resolution 1701”

Israel is reportedly jamming GPS devices in the north to confound Hezbollah missiles.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Iranian Foreign Minister - “We do not want to expand the scope of the war”

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

RUMINT - According to several U.S. Defense Officials, preparations are now underway for a total or partial withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq due to continued pressure and escalations by Iranian-backed groups including Kata’ib Hezbollah, while also making it a priority of getting American servicemembers to “Safety” prior to any kind a regional war; the full withdrawal could take up to 90 Days but that depends on its size, scope, and urgency.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Omani Foreign Ministry - “We warn of the dangerous repercussions of its continued aggression against the Gaza Strip and its trend towards storming Rafah.”

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.

Israel will go into Rafah regardless of what any one else says or demands. They will likely begin a major evacuation of civilians out of the city within the next few days. It is the last largely untouched Hamas stronghold in Gaza.

Intensity is building in Lebanon as well. Iranian rhetoric has cranked up in the last few days suggesting that they will not leave Hezbollah out to dry as they did Hamas.

If the RUMINT is accurate - and many other sources are echoing the same - this would represent a major loss by the US to Iran. It would also permit Iran to focus more on potential direct attacks on Israel. Iran has been working to oust the US forces for about a year now and it will not stop at this level of removal but push to now remove the US from the entire region. Given biden’s foreign policy disasters - such as the Afghanistan pullout - any withdrawal from Iraq/Syria could face the same measure of stupidity on the part of military and political planners.

Finally, the location of a major Hamas HQ directly below the UNRWA HQ for Gaza pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin of the UN’s cooperation with Hamas against Israel. The UNRWA Commissioner-General’s claim that they knew nothing is pretty weak. It is a throughly corrupt organization and must be defunded and shut down.



184 posted on 02/11/2024 7:05:40 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

As we move into a new week, news tends to ebb and flow in some subject areas. It is often difficult to get a full handle on some events/activities as it seems to be like trying to drink from a firehose. This is one of those firehose days.


Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
Australia is moving closer to the implementation of its digital ID program, set to be finalized later this year. An announcement from the Department of Finance revealed that the novel system would empower users to select their preferred digital ID provider for the accessibility of both government and private services. Private entities can apply for accreditation to provide digital ID services under the Trusted Digital Identity Framework (TDIF), which is the government’s recognition framework.

OBSERVATION - Australia has been one of the more compliant nations to the WEF goals - reflected in the draconian lockdowns of the wuhan plandemic. While this new program utilizes other digital ID providers, they all have to conform to the national standard - very easy for later conversion to a singular national ID card. Included in this act is the incorporation of biometric and other personal data into the system.

***
According to Bloomberg, the German economy continues to tank. After the economy shrank in the final quarter of last year, downbeat early surveys for 2024 signal there’s little respite ahead.
Demand from borrowers for investment in the likes of machinery, factories and technology has fallen, creating a risk that domestic growth is impeded in the longer term as companies focus on getting through the current struggle. And now there’s growing concern about some lenders’ exposure to the shaky US corporate real estate market. -Bloomberg

Both its government and the European Commission projecting a 0.4% contraction in its economy for 2024 due to high inflation, elevated energy prices and sluggish international trade.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/rising-distress-in-germany-signals-a-lot-more-struggles-ahead

OBSERVATION - Climate change policies are driving the collapse of the German economic machine. Article goes into other sectors being taken down as well. Watch distress with Deutsche Bank - already heavily ladened with bad debt and unlikely to provide much support in the days and months ahead. If it falls, the banking industry could collapse globally.

***
In a bold move that champions parental rights and counters the rise of state intervention in family matters, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently unveiled a groundbreaking parental rights policy. This initiative represents a significant pushback against a growing trend that seeks to undermine parental authority, particularly in matters concerning education and gender ideology.
Alberta’s new policy, as outlined by Premier Smith, takes a firm stand against gender reassignment surgery for minors under 18 and the use of puberty blockers and hormone therapies for those aged 15 and younger. This common sense approach prioritizes the well-being of children, ensuring that decisions with irreversible physical and psychological effects are made with due caution and parental involvement. The policy further mandates parental consent for name or pronoun changes for children under 16 and notification for those between 16 and 17, reinstating parents as primary stakeholders in their children’s development.

Amidst this backdrop, a statement by Randall Garrison, a New Democratic Party member of parliament, has sparked outrage for its endorsement of a disturbingly authoritarian and decidedly communist view that directly opposes the fundamental rights of parents. He stated, “There’s no such thing as parental rights in Canada,” “Children have rights in Canada, and these kinds of policies restrict the rights children have.” This comment has alarmed many who value the family unit and parental involvement in a child’s upbringing.

https://rairfoundation.com/defending-family-albertas-bold-resistance-against-canadas-march/

OBSERVATION - Canada has been and continues to be one of the hot bed WEF development countries - pushing forward from a national govt level to force WEF standards and goals on the rest of the county. Parental rights and linkage to the trans-terrorism programs of the left as a means to destroy the family (so they can rebuild it in their image) is high on that agenda.

This is not the only agenda the western Canadian territories have been pushing back on Ottawa on. Farming and oil/gas/coal restrictions have generated push back as well. Trudeau is seeing the possibility of being voted out of office at the next election, so expect more of these kinds of destructive edicts to come out as he tries to sustain his numbers in liberal, urban Canada.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

***


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***


Economy-

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the price level of many goods in the United States will likely remain high for the foreseeable future but argued it isn’t President Joe Biden’s fault. Her remarks came during an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday for a hearing addressing the financial stability of the U.S. economy. Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) pressed Sec. Yellen on whether Americans should expect a decrease in prices any time soon. The Louisana Republican bluntly asked Biden’s Treasury Secretary: “These high prices, caused by ‘Bidenomics,’ are here to stay – aren’t they?”

“Well, the high prices were not caused by ‘Bidenomics,’” responded Sec. Yellen, before trying to shift the blame for inflation: “We suffered a pandemic that resulted in severe dislocations.” Cutting through the spin, Sen. Kennedy again pressed Yellen on whether prices would fall, asking: “But if I could ask you, they’re here to stay, aren’t they?” Responding to Kennedy, Sec. Yellen admitted she does not expect the level of prices to go down.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/02/10/watch-treasury-sec-janet-yellen-says-high-prices-are-here-to-stay/

OBSERVATION - The simple fact is, unless leadership of the country does a drastic switch from progressive marxism and its foolish lockstep march with the goals of the WEF, prices won’t even have a chance to go down. This is no longer the “Before Years” but that of the ‘new norm’. Yellen, et al want high prices and a tip over of the economy in order to enforce the plans of the WEF onto the US. Many have noted that all it would take is one major global disaster to achieve such things as CBDC and digital IDs being forced on Americans. That is the end game.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was hospitalized Sunday following symptoms pointing to an “emergent bladder issue,” the Pentagon said. Austin transferred the functions and duties of the office of the Secretary of Defense to Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks the Pentagon said

***
The U.S. Navy’s Destroyer Squadron 2 commander was relieved of duty “due to a loss of confidence” in his ability to perform, the Navy said, marking the third naval commander to be removed this year.

Capt. William “Mac” Harkin was relieved of command of the squadron by Rear Adm. Erik Eslich, the leader of the Carrier Strike Group 12, the Navy said Saturday.

The Navy removed 16 commanding officers last year, and a “loss of confidence” was given as the reasoning behind relieving 14 of them.

OBSERVATION - With the exception of one, nothing further than the “loss of confidence” is listed. This is from a post-0bama purge of the military that targeted the competent in favor of the politically reliable. The fallout of the new DEI based promotion methodology coming out may be what is being seen here. I really don’t remember this many being relieved in the past.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***

Funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan pushed forward in a rare Super Bowl Sunday vote.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****
The first polls to come out following the devastating report by Special Counsel Robert Hur shows that voters are even more skeptical about Joe Biden being able to serve as president for another term.

The poll, conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, found that 86% of voters believe Joe Biden is too old to serve a second term. That’s up from a September poll showing 74% of voters thought Biden was too old.

The poll shows 59% of voters think both Biden and Donald Trump are too old to serve, while only 27% think only Biden is too old. Fully 91% of independents believe Biden is too old to serve another term as president.
Just 62% of voters think Trump is too old. More troubling for Biden, an astonishing 73% of Democrats think he’s too old to serve another term. Only 35% of Republicans think the same of Trump.

https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/02/11/first-post-hur-report-poll-86-of-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-serve-another-term-n4926347

OBSERVATION - Though Trump takes some hits in this poll, biden is devastated. Again, caution before running too quickly with these polls - their purpose at this stage is to form public opinion over actual views.

MORE BAD NEWS FOR BIDEN - Voters say Pres. Joe Biden’s mental decline is getting worse – and they’re not fooled by the media’s efforts to cover up his cognitive deterioration.

A national Rasmussen survey released Monday reveals that 61% of U.S. likely voters say it’s at least “somewhat” likely that the “news media are helping cover up evidence of President Biden’s declining mental sharpness.”
Nearly half (45%) of voters say it’s “very likely” there’s a media cover-up of the president’s mental decline.

In another question, 59% say Biden is getting less and less mentally sharp over time. A third (33%) think he’s not, while 8% aren’t sure.
Of those who think Biden’s mental state is getting worse, 89% say the media is covering up his decline. Fully 70% say it’s “very likely” the media are engaged in a cover-up of evidence that Biden’s mind is failing.

The views of Independent voters (not Democrat or Republican) mirror those of all likely voters combined, with 61% saying Biden is in mental decline and 82% saying it’s either very likely (41%) or somewhat likely (21%) the media are covering it up.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/voters-see-through-medias-cover-bidens-mental-decline-survey-shows

These views should be showing up on the next Trump v Biden election polls.

***
This Ad that biden put out during the Super Bowl will not age well.

“While you were Super Bowl shopping, did you notice smaller-than-usual products where the price stays the same?

Folks are calling it Shrinkflation and it means companies are giving you less for every dollar you spend.

I’m calling on the big consumer brands to put a stop to it.”

OBSERVATION - Companies ‘shrank’ products in order to project the image that prices have not gone up due to biden induced economic policies. I’ve seen shrinkage in the stores for 3 years now, it is not new. However, by pointing more consumer attention on it, the backlash may come around and bite his ‘bidenomics’ campaign issue in the rear. I really don’t think he realizes that once consumers pay full inflation prices for the previously ‘full sized’ items that they will be happy, happy, happy at all. Blaming companies for inflation driven by his policies will not be a winning fight for him.

***
Biden has told aides and outside advisers that Attorney General Merrick Garland did not do enough to rein in a special counsel report stating that the president had diminished mental faculties, according to two people close to the president, as White House frustration with the head of the Justice Department grows.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/09/white-house-frustration-with-garland-grows-00140813

OBSERVATION - Both the WH and DoJ claim that their actions are not politically driven, but the latest has opened up the curtain to show that there has been a drive at weaponizing the DoJ against democrat opponents. The Hur report turned around and bit them because in the midst of all this, the DoJ is trying to keep a facade of neutrality up. That facade has tanken a major beating since the report’s release - exposing the double prosecution standard Garland operates.


Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT


Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

New York, Vermont and New Hampshire counties have seen a record number of illegal border crossings in recent months, startling statistics show.
The new numbers, up more than twofold from 2022, come as an increasing number of migrants elect to travel through Canada rather than Mexico to avoid detection, creating a new spin on the now years-long crisis.

While most still use legal ports of entry, more than 12,200 were apprehended crossing illegally from the north in 2023 - much more than the 3,578 arrested the year prior.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13073031/NY-Vermont-New-Hampshire-record-border-crossings-migrants-Canada.html

OBSERVATION - Canada doesn’t have the same illegal immigrant support structure the assaults on the southern border have. Still the majority of illegals are coming from central and south american countries and it is cheaper and relatively easier to proceed to the southern border rather than procure passage to get into Canada and proceed south.

***
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston announced a decrease in city services on Friday to help offset costs inflicted by the city’s migrant crisis.
The reduction includes cuts in the hours of operation for several Department of Motor Vehicles offices, and the city’s Parks and Recreation services will reduce their spring programming by 25%. Community centers will also reduce the number of days they are open from seven to six.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/immigration/2849076/denver-mayor-reduction-services-offset-migrants/

OBSERVATION - Denver is not the only blue city cutting services to fund illegal care. NYC and Chicago are doing the same. As these cuts affect the quality of life for citizens - these in your face illegals will be making campaigning democrats squirm going into November.

***
Numbers now coming in to gauge the effects of the TX border shut down efforts. On Saturday, there was a total of almost 7,000 encounters with illegal aliens at the southern border. Of that number, over 2,500 of those were in the Tucson sector in Arizona. A significant portion of the “gotaways” in this sector are on Indian reservation land. This area has no wall and zero media access.

OBSERVATION - Illegals are now significantly shifting their pathways into the US. Since the state leadership of NM, AZ and CA are all liberal leftists, don’t expect them to do anything about it.

RELATED - The number of apprehensions of illegal border crossers along the southwest border in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (Q1 FY24) is the highest in U.S. history.
They totaled 785,422, greater than the individual populations of three U.S. states: Wyoming (586,485), Vermont (647,818), and Alaska (733,536) and nearly the population of North Dakota (788,940).

In Q1 FY24, apprehensions at the southwest border alone totaled 240,981 in October, 242,407 in November and 302,034 in December.
By comparison, in Q1 FY23, apprehensions at the southwest border totaled 231,529 in October, 235,173 in November, and 252,315 in December.

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/1st-quarter-fiscal-2024-apprehensions-southwest-border-highest-us


China –

China held one of its largest military parades ever over the weekend.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.

Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

14 of 17 Shahed drones, and Kh-59 missile were shot down overnight. 3 wounded as result of Russian missile strike with S-300 missiles in Selydove

There are reports that Ukraine ADA stocks are falling to dangerously low levels, reducing coverage of front line units. This is permitting Russian ground attack aircraft greater freedom to strike Ukrainian positions.

Ukraine is reportedly sending a fresh combat brigade into the Avdiivka zone to secure the northern flank from Russian advances that are threatening supply lines.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

Avdiivka continues to be a hot spot with Ukraine supply lines endangered and the increasing potential for encirclement of the city.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is in its 5th month.

Key overnight developments -

- Two Israeli hostages were rescued from an apartment in Rafah overnight.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 103 being held hostage in Gaza. Two rescued overnight

The Washington Post reports that U.S. officials doubt Israel’s ability to achieve a complete military victory in Gaza

PA leader Mahmoud Abbas will discuss a new Palestinian unity government with the Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, according to the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday.

Details are still scarce, but according to the report, this new government will be technocratic in nature and led by experts, rather than political. The proposed head of the new government will reportedly be Dr. Muhammad Mustafa, the head of the Palestinian Investment Fund.

Asharq Al-Awsat also mentions the proposal possibly taking steps to absorb Hamas within the PLO.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.

Israeli forces rescued two hostages, Luis Har and Fernado Simon Marman, in a complex military operation in Rafah. Both former hostages are now in Israel, at the Sheba hospital, and have been reunited with their families. The operation was carried out by a clandestine force who arrived overnight at the target and stormed a heavily guarded apartment where the hostages were detained, exchanging fire with gunmen, leading to the death of several of them. One Israeli soldier was lightly wounded.

Hamas almost immediately tried to spin the rescue operation into a massive attack on civilians - ignoring completely that civilians were encamped around the hostages as human shields against Israeli rescue.

***
The Israeli army says it captured approximately 20 militants hiding in the al-Amal hospital in Western Khan Younis. The detained militants were transferred to Israel for interrogation

***
Israel reports that operations to move non-combatants out of the Rafah zone have begun.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

An Israeli drone carried out a targeted attack in Bint Jbeil in Lebanon, according to Arab reports. The target of the attack was Mohammed Alaviya, a senior member of Hezbollah and responsible for the Maroun al-Ras region, according to the Saudi “Al Hadith” network and Sky News in Arabic.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

“Syria has waged several wars against Israel and is ready for new ones,” the foreign minister said. The Syrian diplomat said that his country was ready to liberate parts of its territory occupied illegally by Israel (Golan Heights), the United States (Conico Oil FIelds) and Turkey (Northeastern Syria / Kurdistan).

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian traveled to Lebanon and Syria over the weekend to discuss Israeli aggression. In particular, he was received by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who stressed that by supplying arms to Israel, the US is increasing the risk of the conflict spreading to other countries in the Middle East.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US Central Command: Yesterday, we attacked two boats and 5 cruise missiles that were prepared to be launched in the Red Sea.

The Houthis are sending an unusually high number of of drone boats against Red Sea vessels, according to a US military statement. This follows days ago a pair of drone boats being destroyed by US missiles. Since last year, the Houthis have primarily relied upon drones and ballistic missiles, with explosive-laden drone boats making an occasional appearance, but now it appears these ‘suicide boats’ are seeing greater use.

A Greek-owned bulker, the Star Iris, was attacked by two missiles in the Red Sea Monday morning. No reports of damage or casualties.
.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

UAE ambassador to the U.N. Lana Nusseibeh: There must be an irreversible progression to a two-state solution

Ankara: We are concerned about Israel’s escalation of its attacks on Rafah, and we consider it part of its plan to expel the residents of the Gaza Strip from their land.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.

The rescue of Jewish hostages in Rafah has shown new reasons for the ground invasion into the town to commence. Almost predictable the world is condoning Hamas’ use of human shields to protect its last stronghold and in the forefront use of hostages. The two rescued hostages were in an apartment building that housed ‘civilians’ - they had to know what was going on and condoned it. Knowing that there are more hostages in the town will drive Israel even harder to enter the city to subdue Hamas forces there and rescue more. That full blown ground assault is likely to begin some time this week.



185 posted on 02/12/2024 6:21:10 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: Godzilla
Climate change policies are driving the collapse of the German economic machine. Article goes into other sectors being taken down as well. Watch distress with Deutsche Bank - already heavily ladened with bad debt and unlikely to provide much support in the days and months ahead. If it falls, the banking industry could collapse globally.

Plus the 'new Germans' (Middle East Muslims' don't have the same 'work ethic'... part of what holds countries together is the unspoken rules. Add that to Germany's horrible decisions in the recent past - and their new bad choices (buying to climate change) and they're set up for failure.

186 posted on 02/12/2024 9:57:34 AM PST by GOPJ ( Ashli Babbit's killer was given a promotion after the murder. Never forget.)
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To: Godzilla
Hamas almost immediately tried to spin the rescue operation into a massive attack on civilians - ignoring completely that civilians were encamped around the hostages as human shields against Israeli rescue.

Hamas is the new definition of 'bottom of the barrel'... even among terrorists groups they're the creepiest.

187 posted on 02/12/2024 9:59:46 AM PST by GOPJ ( Ashli Babbit's killer was given a promotion after the murder. Never forget.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

Continued actions by other governors to supply support to TX efforts to seal the border.

***
Pro-hamas rioters attempted to break into a meeting being held by NYC mayor Adams.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***
Sunday, 36-year-old Genesse Ivonne Moreno, accompanied by a five-year-old child, walked into Joel Osteen’s Lakewood Church in Houston on Sunday and opened fire with an AR-15-style modern sporting rifle, wounding a 57-year-old man before being killed by security guards. The child was wounded and is hospitalized.

The shooter was a “transwoman” whose real name was Jeffrey Escalante. Escalante was from El Salvador, but there is no word on his immigration status. The AR-15 he carried had “Free Palestine” written on it. As one of my colleagues noted, someone with a rifle with “Free Palestine” scrawled on it using a child as a human shield is just about as on-brand as you can get.

In the past four years, there has been a surge in the number of mass shootings carried out by transgender or related murderers. In addition to Hale, we have:
Colorado Springs, CO, nightclub shooting (Attorney: Suspected Colorado Mass Shooter Identifies as ‘Non-Binary’), November 2022, Anderson Aldrich (Nicholas Brink), “non-binary.”
Denver, CO, school shooting (Father of Colorado High School Shooting Suspect is an Illegal Immigrant Deported Twice, Charged with Very Serious Crimes), May 2019, Maya “Alec” McKinney, transgender female-to-male.
Aberdeen, MD, workplace shooting (Last Week There Was a Mass Shooting at a Maryland Industrial Park but No One Seems to Care), September 2018, Snochia Moseley, transgender female-to-male.

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/02/12/shooter-at-joel-osteens-church-was-transgender-immigrant-with-a-political-message-on-her-ar-15-n2169998?fbclid=IwAR1GdLqMuSQ3ihvk6ovwyt1E4FO_kZxDIT6vtxU2xmjtx6ekON6adMduD-0_aem_AfQhn0jrSA9xIFAGq8_IdV0IuDnBXGrAGytFuUziXHu4lQ1nr8lbadKphJQjigmNOUs

OBSERVATION - A terroristic act, could also associate with illegal immigration too.
People with severe mental issues - such as many in the ‘trans’ community are rising to the surface as a serious random threat to society. Social media has drilled into many of these people the idea that they are being exterminated by Christians and others of the right - so they are justified in going out and killing them. What adds to this is that Moreno has a long rap sheet and is an illegal alien too boot.


Economy-


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

The U.S. CDC plans to drop its five-day COVID-19 isolation recommendations under new guidance planned by the agency, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.
The health agency plans to recommend people who test positive for COVID-19 to take a call on when to end isolation based on their symptoms.
People with mild and improving symptoms would no longer need to stay home if they have been fever-free for at least 24 hours, the report said citing CDC officials familiar with the matter.

OBSERVATION - wuhan has been a nothing burger for the last two years.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***
The House has passed a resolution to remove Ilhan Omar from the Foreign Affairs Committee.

About time!

***
This is going to get ugly fast.
The Senate is wasting its time passing tens of millions of dollars in foreign aid without border security measures, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) suggested in a Monday night statement.

In a statement issued less than an hour before the Senate began a series of procedural votes to waive budgetary points of order and invoke cloture on the bill, Johnson dismissed the efforts, suggesting the House would not bring up the bill.

“In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”

“House Republicans were crystal clear from the very beginning of discussions that any so-called national security supplemental legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border,” Johnson said. “The House acted ten months ago to help enact transformative policy change by passing the Secure Our Border Act, and since then, including today, the Senate has failed to meet the moment.”

The bill Johnson touts, often referred to as “H.R. 2” on Capitol Hill, is the standard demand for border hawks and House Republicans for Congressional action on the border.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/02/12/speaker-mike-johnson-torches-foreign-aid-bill-border-must-come-first/

OBSERVATION - Yes this will get VERY ugly. At this stage, the prioritization of foreign support versus the outstanding need for border security (and not the crap kind McConnell tried to foist on us a couple weeks ago) has become stark. Republicans are overextending to enact Democratic Party priorities, while kicking the base to the curb and selling out the country.

BTW - it has been pointed out that this bill has an impeachment booby trap embedded within it - designed to thwart any attempt by Trump to cancel payments as he did his first term. Really nice of republicans - or are they really republicans - to let this get in.

But lets be realistic - the regime will simply continue to ignore the laws it disagrees with and any border security bill will be ignored as well.

Very ugly in that beneath all this off the top rope legislating efforts, there is no apparent move forward to get a budget funded for the remaining FY. Mar 1 the curtain comes down and it looks like the House is ready to execute this option.

***
Judge Scott McAfee on Monday said Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis may be disqualified from Trump’s RICO case over her improper relationship with top Trump prosecutor Nathan Wade.

The judge also said Thursday’s evidentiary hearing on alleged misconduct ‘must occur.’

“I think it’s clear that disqualification can occur if evidence is produced demonstrating an actual conflict or the appearance of one,” Judge McAfee said in Monday’s hearing. “The state has admitted a relationship existed. And so what remains to be proven is the existence and extent of any financial benefit, again if there even was one. And so because I think its possible that the facts alleged by the defendant could result in disqualification, I think an evidentiary hearing must occur to establish the record on those core allegations.”
“I think the issues at point here are whether a relationship existed, whether that relationship was romantic or non-romantic in nature, when it formed, and whether it continues. And that’s only relevant because it’s in combination with the question of the existence and extent of any personal benefit conveyed as a result of their relationship,” the judge said.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/breaking-judge-says-fulton-county-da-fani-willis/

OBSERVATION - The massive law fare efforts to prevent trump from running for president have been unraveling very quickly lately. Pending the likely strong rebuke from the USSC and now to this scandal. Even Smith’s cases are disassembling. One must watch to see just what hail mary’s the DoJ and others will throw to try to regain the initiative and effort.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****
Biden’s upcoming physical exam will not include a cognitive test, White House says
Biden and his administration are so certain that he is cognitively perfect that the president will decline to take a test to determine his mental capacities.

***
President Joe Biden wandered around the podium like a ‘lost puppy’ during a crucial press conference regarding the on going conflict in Israel alongside Jordanian King Abdullah at the White House on Tuesday.
After delivering remarks, Biden, 81, told the king: ‘Your majesty, over to you.’ The Scranton-native proceeded to stand back to the king’s left, laser focused on the floor, apparently looking for a marker. Right-wing commentator Benny Johnson described the president as looking like a ‘lost puppy.’
A few seconds later, Biden walks to the other side of the king, still looking for a mark. He then goes back to his first choice, in front of Jordan’s flag. ‘I switched sides on you,’ he remarked while smiling at the king.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13077437/joe-Biden-jordan-king-abdullah-video.html

OBSERVATION - What an embarrassment.


Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

Projections suggest over 5,400 police officers were injured by suspects in New York City in 2023, as the Big Apple remains in the grip of a disorderly migrant crisis. The number of officers injured by suspects in 2022 stood at 4,724, a 20 percent increase on the 2021 figure of 3,933. Full figures for 2023 have not been released, but 4,077 officers had been injured after just nine months, with projections indicating the total for the year would have been around 5,436.

News of the new statistics follows a high-profile attack on two police officers by a migrant gang in Times Square. Four suspects in the incident, which saw the officers repeatedly kicked in the head while on the ground, were arrested shortly afterward, and another the following day. All turned out to be asylum seekers, and four of them were released without bail within hours of their detention, thanks to Democrat reforms. Most of them promptly absconded, sparking a nationwide manhunt.

OBSERVATION - Rampant lawlessness spurred on by essentially no enforcement of laws or consequences by progressive DA’s and justice system.
When the S hits the fan, law enforcement will likely be off to one side out of fear of their own lives. Mayors and DA’s have cut them out to dry under the whole defund the police. This will in turn generate more citizen self defense - actions the left would characterize as ‘vigilantism’ and crack down on citizens - not criminals.

If you have’t looked in depth at what happens in a without rule of law (WROL) scenario, you should - scare the beegebbers out of you.

***
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas joined Kristen Welker on Meet the Press on Sunday to discuss the Biden open borders invasion at the US southern border.
During the interview Secretary Mayorkas told Welker “We don’t bear responsibility” for the open US border and the 11 million illegals who have invaded the US under their watch.

OBSERVATION - This individual is total filth - Fauci level filth.

***
A couple in Boston signed up to a government scheme to house illegal immigrants in their own home and were delivered an entire family of four within an hour, according to a CBS News report.

“When Colin and Jessica Stokes called the state to sign up to be a host family, it took less than an hour for the displaced migrants to be dropped off at their door,” the report notes, adding “The family of four, who didn’t want to go on camera, had made been sleeping at Logan Airport“

The couple, Colin and Jessica Stokes, said that “they knew they had the means and wanted to step up,” and that “It has been wonderful.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/brookline-family-hosts-migrants-sleeping-floor-logan-airport/

OBSERVATION - Time will tell when the silverware starts missing. any bets?

***
The links to 0bama controlling the WH grows -

Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice emerged as a central — and controversial — coordinator of the administration’s approach to the border. Some officials found her needlessly combative and disagreed with her policy-wise. But even many of her critics credit her with taking on more responsibility on the border at a time when most other top Biden officials were shying away from it. There was — and still is — deep animosity toward Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra for what was seen as his reluctance to find more space in child migrant shelters, which are overseen by HHS, according to several sources familiar with the dynamics. Rice referred to Becerra as a “bitch-ass” and privately called him an “idiot,” according to multiple sources. During one meeting when Biden was tearing into Becerra, Rice passed Mayorkas a note that read: “Don’t save him,” according to two people familiar with the meeting. Rice also clashed repeatedly with Sherwood-Randall and had tension with Vice President Harris, according to people familiar with the dynamics.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/report-former-obama-adviser-susan-rice-is-central/

OBSERVATION - Rice is a notorious evil doer from the 0bama reign of terror. That she is apparently calling the shots is just another indicator the evil one hasn’t let go his grip on the WH.

***
The tsunami grows at a faster and faster pace.
Illegal interceptions - not counting got aways.

2024 SO FAR: 988,819
2023: 3,201,144
2022: 2,766,582
2021: 1,956,519
2020: 405,036
2019: 859,501
2018: 404,142
2017: 310,531

NOTE- Already exceeding the total number for the years preceding biden.


China –

Taiwan’s defense ministry says that it detected 8 Chinese balloons crossing the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, the second day in a row that it detected large numbers of balloons crossing the Strait.

OBSERVATION - these balloons are similar to the one biden allowed to drift all the way across the country last year. In the case of Taiwan, the numbers of these balloons have been steadily increasing.


North/South Korea –

Reports that NK has developed a 200mm MRLS system that they are planning to ship to Russia for use in Ukraine.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.

Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

*****

Logistics –

Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks during its invasion of Ukraine – the equivalent of its entire pre-war active inventory – but has enough lower-quality armored vehicles in storage for years of replacements, a leading research center said Tuesday.

Ukraine has also suffered heavy loses since the invasion began in February 2022, but Western military replenishments have allowed it to maintain inventories while upgrading quality, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual Military Balance report.
“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity though, by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month,” said the report, a key reference tool for defense analysts.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/russia-tanks-ukraine/2024/02/13/id/1153357/

OBSERVATION - It is reports like this that indicates to me Russia is in no position to continue its attack into Eastern Europe / Baltic regions. They face similar major losses of artillery as well.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 of 23 Shahed drones. Major target was Dnipro City where water treatment and electrical grid was hit. Odessa was also targeted.

Fighting along the line from Avdiivka south to Marinka has increased overnight. Ukraine has sent reinforcements into Avdiivka to hold the flanks from persistent russian attacks.

Increased fighting also noted south of Bakhmut.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

The battle for Avdiivka is further heating up with the arrival of Ukraine reinforcements. Ukraine may also have reallocated artillery ammo reserves to back them up as well. Russia is fallowing the tactic it used at Bakhmut - slow but steady advances on the flanks - avoiding direct attacks into the city and eventually cutting supplies and troops off. For Ukraine - it is forcing Russia to continue to commit forces it could use elsewhere for the winter/spring offensive efforts.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is entering its 5th month.

Key overnight developments -

- Israel increases pressure on Rafah

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

Hamas announces the killing of 3 Israeli detainees (hostages) in raids carried out by the Israeli army in the Rafah area.

New details about rescued hostages, Fernando Marman and Louis Har.
Their relatives say that they had cooked for the family that had held them captive.
NOTE - Gazan “civilians” holding hostages

***
An initiative to declare UNRWA a terrorist organization is being spearheaded by the Shurat HaDin Law Center, representing dozens of October 7 massacre victims.
The current initiative comes in light of the IDF’s recent revelation of the Hamas command center in the Hamas tunnels below UNRWA’s headquarters, which operates on behalf of the UN in the Gaza Strip.

***
The Biden administration, after urging by left-wing Democrats, issued a memorandum Thursday that will require Israel to submit a report within 45 days on its compliance with international humanitarian law in its war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

The memorandum, announced by the White House, theoretically applies to any country that receives weapons from the United States and is actively involved in armed conflict. But the White House all but admitted Friday that it was targeted at Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israel is maneuvering forces in anticipation of moving into the Rafah to engage the last of Hamas forces and try to rescue more hostages.

IDF liquidated more Hamas elements in the Khan Yunis region.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah announced the killing of 5 of its members in an Israeli bombing on the areas of southern Lebanon

High numbers of IDF air and artillery strikes all along the Lebanese border.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US will continue its operations in Iraq and Syria — Biden

Houthi attempted more cruise and ballistic missile attacks overnight. Seems that without the Iranian intel ships in the gulf, Houthi engagements continue at very low levels. CAP also hitting more launchers before they can fire as well.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Hussein Al-Sheikh - The Arab group led by Saudi Arabia is preparing a joint paper that includes 3 steps to stop the war

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.

The rescue of two hostages a couple days ago seems to have taken some of the air of the don’t invade Rafah chorus - by demonstrating that Hamas remains a threat and needs to be taken out. Additionally, demonstrates that gazan “civilians” are actively participating in hostage retention.



188 posted on 02/13/2024 7:57:38 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: Godzilla

You should have included Texas Tech in my threat matrix....


189 posted on 02/13/2024 7:59:13 AM PST by KC Burke
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To: Godzilla

Looks like the church shooter may have changed name/identity to avoid an immigration detainer after he was arrested for assault in 2010.

Genesse Moreno. IMMIGRATION DETAINER. Houston Texas.
JLR© INVESTIGATES!
2.2K views1 hour ago

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yywq0j5zUU


190 posted on 02/13/2024 8:24:00 AM PST by Rusty0604 (W looking for new conspiracy theories as all the old ones have come true)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab says that humankind is transitioning into “The Intelligent Age” powered by technologies coming from the fourth industrial revolution at the World Governments Summit.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, UAE, on Monday, Schwab said that the fourth industrial revolution – which will lead to the fusion of our physical, biological, and digital identities – is powering a global transition of humankind into a new era called The Intelligent Age in which “humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities.”

“Now, we are not speaking just about the fourth industrial revolution; we are speaking about the transition of humankind into a new era, which is not just characterized by technological change – a new era where humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities,” said Schwab in his speech entitled “Civilizations of Tomorrow: Built to Fail or Rise?”

“It’s a transition. We first had the transition about a hundred years ago from the agricultural society to the industrial society, but today we speak about transitioning into what I would call ‘the intelligent age,’” he added.

According to Schwab, the WEF’s plans for the “new world” involve a “fusion between our physical, our digital, and our biological dimensions.”

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/klaus-schwab-proclaims-technology-driven-new-dawn-of-human-civilization-at-world-governments-summit/

OBSERVATION - His talk covered portions of his trans humanism goals - a merger of man and machines. In doing so he spews the continual lie that socialism will allow us to ‘enjoy’ more and more things. I guess him, like others, believe socialism wasn’t properly practiced before.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

***
See ‘POLITICAL FRONT” regarding likely CIA plot to spy on Trump and his associates.
Such an action if verified, would essentially represent the Deep State owned CIA declaring war on the American people and ripping the concept of the constitution to shreds.

****
Deadly alliance brewing between MS-13 and bloodthirsty Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang behind NYC cellphone robberies, FBI fears.

They extort Venezuelans by demanding that they pay bribes in exchange for protection and even to cross the border from Venezuela into Colombia and from Mexico into the US, he said.

Tren de Aragua has taken advantage of an explosion in Venezuelan migration to come across the southern border. There were more than 340,000 “encounters” with migrants from the country at the border last year, making them second only to Mexicans.

Another expert warned that there is also a risk of turf wars between gangs.
“They are already coming over as hardened criminals,” said Robert Almonte, a security consultant and former US marshal in El Paso.

OBSERVATION - Cross over from illegal immigration. I’ve noted several times now the growth of Venezuelan gangs here in the US and in particular NYC. This is given that Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent the criminals north to America. A merger with MS-13 is a logical progression. MS-13 has been operating in the Northeast US for a considerable number of years and already has the criminal infrastructure these Venezuelan gangsters can fit right in to.

In the event things go sideways in the US, gangs like this will take advantage of the chaos to establish a much larger rule over metropolitan areas. This will usher in significant turf wars between gangs as well as terrorizing residents thru protection ‘fees’, and other crime.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.


Economy-

The path to getting inflation down has not been steady. On Tuesday, another bump got in the way.

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.1 percent in January compared with the year before. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4 percent annual rate notched in December, and leagues below the post-covid peak of 9.1 percent.

But the report came in hotter than analysts expected, narrowly dashing hopes that the annual inflation figure would dip below 3 percent for the first time since early 2021. And as the Federal Reserve fights to wrestle inflation all the way down to a more normal 2 percent, central bankers know success is still just out of reach, potentially slowing the Fed’s march toward the first interest rate cut in years. (WAPO)

inflation soaring in essential areas:

Car Insurance Inflation: 20.6%
Transportation Inflation: 9.5%
Hospital Services Inflation: 6.7%
Car Repair Inflation: 6.5%
Homeowner Inflation: 6.2%
Rent Inflation: 6.1%
Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.1%

OBSERVATION - The numbers that really hit the pocket book continue to rise back up. Layoffs, going deeper in debt, etc all speak against biden’s claim that he has restored us to a roaring economy.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Carriers USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) continue to operate in the Philippine Sea .


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***
CIA and foreign intelligence agencies in a new report, illegally targeted 26 Trump associates before 2016 Russia collusion claims. FBI started spying on the Trump campaign after foreign governments “by chance” discovered evidence that his advisors were colluding with the Russians, the government says. But now, multiple credible sources tell us that the CIA asked foreign allies to spy on 26 Trump associates.

OBSERVATION - Details of this CIA lead coup against Trump are still coming out. If these reports are true, we have a serious problem at hand with a powerful, rogue agency that has been weaponized against democrat opposition and even against a duly elected president.

***
By a one vote margin, House voted to impeach Mayorkas!

OBSERVATION - A symbolic event as the Senate will not vote to throw his sorry arse out of the position. In fact, he may grow even more belligerent toward defending the border.

***
Democrat Tom Suozzi is projected to win New York’s Third Congressional District election. At publishing time, Suozzi leads Mazi Pilp, 54.2% to 45.8% with 85% reporting.
This is for former republican congressman George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District

Mazi Pilp was a democrat running as a republican.

***
House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-KY) and Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland requesting all documents and transcripts from Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation of President Biden related to Ukraine and China.

OBSERVATION - While the basis for the request is the effort to build the case to impeach biden, it has the potential for exposing biden’s mental issues.


Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.


China –

China’s Consul General in Manila Zhang Zhen described the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling on the South China Sea as “illegal, null, and void,” adding that China “has never and will never accept it” during a Chinese New Year celebration in the Philippines.

OBSERVATION - Indicative of China’s more aggressive policy to seize key islands in the region under false pretenses. Refusal to follow international law by China is guaranteed to create more tensions and potential military conflict in the region.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.

Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

*****

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, speaking at Russian parliament says Russia is ready for talks in Ukraine, only if current occupation of lands in Ukraine accepted

Logistics –

A heavy fire broke out at Gazpromneft’s refinery in south-east Moscow. Normally, it supplies Moscow with 40% of the gasoline and 50% of the diesel the city needs, and also supplies the airports with most of the jet fuel they consume. No word as to the cause, and no reported drone activity

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Coming up on the anniversary of the war - Feb 24, 2022, Russian losses have been staggering. Expected to reach the 400K by the third anniversary of the invasion next week. Over twice the number initially involved in the invasion have been ‘eliminated.’


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Ukrainian naval drones just sank the 112 meter long Russian Ropucha-class landing ship Caesar Kunikov (bottom left on this graphic) off the coast of Crimea. The Cesar Kunikov already escaped narrowly destruction when it was damaged in March 2022 in Berdyansk by a Tochka-U missile.

Observers in Crimea noted a second explosion, including a strong shockwave, similar to when ammunition exploded. It is highly probable the Kunikov was loaded with ammunition bound for the front when the attack occurred.

As part of the enemy’s Black Sea Fleet , there are still 5 landing ships available: “Azov”, “Korolev”, “Yamal”, “Orsk”, “Nikolay Filchenkov”.

The ship was named after major Cesar Kunikov - who died on Valentine’s Day 1943. Coincidence?

Avdiivka -

Fierce fighting continues around the city. Reports indicate that a Russian push from the NE has physically cut the town off from its primary supply line. Russian forces pushed between the northern end of the town and the coke plant to its northwest to cut off the road. Ukraine reinforcements are reportedly pushing in on the northwestern flank of this Russia assault. Ukraine has also switched to a secondary supply route. One of the biggest reports coming out is that Ukrainian forces are saying that they are running desperately short of ammunition.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine. With recent military leadership changes and low stocks of ammo, hard decisions will need to be made. Avdiivka has been a successful meat grinder for Ukraine with Russian losses running something like 10x the losses for Ukraine. But even at those ratios, you still need bullets and artillery to sustain the defense.

The Black Sea fleet suffered another major loss with the “Cesar Kunikov”. The large amphibious assault vessel was part of Russian efforts to provide redundancy in getting war supplies to Crimea and southern front areas. The risk of losing the Kersch Bridge looms high in the thoughts of Russian high command.

Russia has lost a number of amphibious ships over the past two years. Initially, they were considered a threat to the Odessa region, allowing Russia to leapfrog Ukraine obstacles and press forward to link up with Russian forces in Transnistria - forming the ‘land bridge’. However, massive failure in the assault against Kyiv and the north, pulled Russian marine forces out of the boats and into critical sectors. Another factor was the quick adaptation of the Neptune anti -ship defenses and other systems that would make an amphibious assault a very likely bloody loss for Russia.

The attack also show cases the advancement of Ukrainian boat drones - faster, less detectable and more deadly. This threat has basically kept Russia missile boats as far away as possible from the Crimea region - reducing the numbers of missiles available to assault Ukrainian infrastructure.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is entering its 5th month.

Key overnight developments -

- Attempts at reaching a deal for the release of the remaining hostages continue

- Hezbollah launches one of the largest rocket attack since the start of the war. Israel is retaliating with massive numbers of airstrikes.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby -
“The Israeli army is taking significant steps in order to lower the number of civilian casualties in Gaza, steps that I am not sure even the US army would have taken.”

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a direct appeal to Hamas, urging the group to release the hostages and swiftly reach a ceasefire agreement to prevent further displacement and hardship for the Palestinian people in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Tens of thousands of Gazans are moving north from Rafah to get away from the planned Israeli offensive.

IDF continues to make preparations to move into Rafah to engage the remnants of Hamas and seek out more hostages to rescue.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah fired off at least three large barrages of rockets into N Israel overnight. At least one barrage was targeted against Safed, killing 1 and wounding 9 - initial reports.

The head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Tuesday that his faction’s cross-border shelling into Israel would only end when Israel’s “aggression” on the Gaza Strip stops.

The Israeli Air Force has begun an extensive wave of strikes in Lebanon in response to the rocket fire earlier.

IAF bombed the Iqlim al-Tuffah area, deep in southern Lebanon. IAF also carried out a series of air strikes targeting the towns of Adchit in the Nabatieh Bassalia district in Iqlim al-Tuffah, and towns of al-Sawwanah and al-Shehabiya.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

Shin Bet and IDF undercover forces have arrested Omar Fayed, one of the heads of the military wing of the terrorist organization Hamas in West Bank’s Jenin

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iranian-backed militias targeted the Al-Omar military base eastern Syria overnight.

***
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that since the October 7th massacre by Hamas in Southern Israel, attacks by Iranian-backed groups against U.S. Forces in Eastern Syria and Iraq have caused at least 186 American casualties with 130 of those labeled as Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs).

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.

Combat between Israel and Hezbollah took a big turn in escalation overnight. At least three rocket barrages into N Israel and retaliatory airstrikes by the IAF through out S Lebanon. The rocket barrages are likely in response to recent Israeli targeted hits on Hezbollah leaders in S Lebanon. Israeli responses give them more opportunity to further degrade key Hezbollah facilities prior to the eventual real ground conflict kicking off. This is not a matter of “if” but now “when”.

IDF facilitated evacuations out of Rafah continue and soon the attack on Hamas’ final stronghold will begin in earnest. Tracking international reaction to the IDF rescue of two hostages - one sees an incredible spin. How dare Israel move to rescue hostages being held in Rafah, didn’t we tell them not to go into the city? - and other similar drivel.

Bottom line is that the IDF will likely launch into Rafah by the end of this week. It will be messy.

How far is Hezbollah willing to go in its stepped up rocket attacks on Israel? I think that they will pull back a bit after today but the die has been cast and the clock is ticking down.

What of the Hostages? I don’t have any real good news. The radical islamic views of Hamas and associated terror groups are that these hostages are not human and they will have no qualm about killing them off. Their usefulness as a shield is coming to an end, so one last spiteful act by Hamas against Israel. I hope and pray more can be rescued ore even exchanged, but that window is quickly closing.


Iran –

The Iranian Gas Management Center is now reporting that the large explosion and resulting fire which occurred earlier tonight on natural gas Line 65 between the cities of Borujen and Shahrekord in Central Iran, was caused by an “act of terrorist sabotage” and not a technical malfunction like was initially believed; the Attack is claimed to have targeted several different gas lines across the country resulting in at least 2 other explosions.

OBSERVATION - Lots of potential suspects, not necessarily an Israeli operation, though Iran will likely blame them for it.

****
Iran’s IRGC says it has fired Emad and Qadr ballistic missiles with “enhanced explosive warheads” to destroy a “simulated version” of Israel’s Palmachim airbase “where Israel’s F-35 fighter jets are located,” a video aired by the state TV shows.

Iran also announced the successful firing of ballistic missiles launched from a container ship. These missiles were stored in the containers on the ship and then were opened up and the missile erected for launch.

OBSERVATION - Concerns over Iranian container missiles have been out there for a considerable number of years now. This is one of the more recent successful launches of the system.
Iranian demonstrations are designed as a propaganda deterrence against any attack by the US or Israel.


Central / South America General-

Ecuador - Narco-Terrorist Alert.

Since Ecuador’s president declared war on gangs last month, soldiers with assault rifles have flooded the streets of Guayaquil, a sprawling Pacific Coast city that has been an epicenter of the nation’s years long descent into violence.

They pull men from buses and cars looking for drugs, weapons and gang tattoos, and patrol roads enforcing a nighttime curfew. The city is on edge, its men and teenage boys potential targets for troops and police officers who have been ordered to take down powerful gangs that have joined forces with international cartels to make Ecuador a hub of the global drug trade.

Yet when people see soldiers pass, many clap or give them a thumbs-up. “We applaud the iron fist, we celebrate it,” said Guayaquil’s mayor, Aquiles Álvarez. “It has helped bring peace.”

In early January, Guayaquil was hit by a wave of violence that could prove to be a turning point in the country’s long-running security crisis: Gangs attacked the city after the authorities moved to take charge of Ecuador’s prisons, which gangs largely controlled. (NYT).

OBSERVATION - Ecuador is going down a similar path the El Salvador has - unconditional lock up of criminals - as the only available way to shut down the massive crime that has taken over the country. Human ‘rights’ advocates are bemoaning the alleged violations against these criminals while refusing to acknowledge the heavy price paid by law abiding citizenry - and the violation of their rights by the drug cartels.
However, the locals have been very supportive of the effort, now being able to venture out without fear of criminal activity.

America is soon to face a similar choice against the massive development of gang crime spinning off of the massive influx of illegals.



191 posted on 02/14/2024 8:39:48 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: Godzilla
In doing so he spews the continual lie that socialism will allow us to ‘enjoy’ more and more things. I guess him, like others, believe socialism wasn’t properly practiced before.

Communism/Socialism gives almost unlimited power to the Socialist 'elite' and NEVER fulfills it's BS to 'the workers'.

Corrupt 'elties' push this crap even after every failure. Why? Because they know if they're one of 'the elites' in that hellhole system they'll have the power of 'God on Earth'. Control over all - it's evil.

Workers have gotten screwed in every commie 'experiment' since the Communist Manifesto was published. Klaus Schwab knows this and he's still pushing the nightmare? That's telling.

192 posted on 02/14/2024 9:11:19 AM PST by GOPJ (Mayorkas reeks of that 'CIA Creepy Thug Assh*le' mentality. Ashli Babbit's killer was promoted..)
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To: Godzilla
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a direct appeal to Hamas, urging the group to release the hostages and swiftly reach a ceasefire agreement to prevent further displacement and hardship for the Palestinian people in Gaza

It's a start. Keep the pressure up, Israel.

193 posted on 02/14/2024 9:14:30 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus…)
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To: Godzilla
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, speaking at Russian parliament says Russia is ready for talks in Ukraine, only if current occupation of lands in Ukraine accepted...

For the everyday citizen in Ukraine there's probably not a dime's worth of difference living under Russian rule or under the corrupt Zelenskyy... Zelenskyy's fighting for the right to be corrupt and Russia's fighting for past glory and the right to stop NATO incursion. " The people" are trapped in the middle. Maybe 'the people' should vote on this... wouldn't that be a novel solution?

194 posted on 02/14/2024 9:24:52 AM PST by GOPJ (Mayorkas reeks of that 'CIA Creepy Thug Assh*le' mentality. Ashli Babbit's killer was promoted..)
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To: GOPJ

One of the stated objectives by Russia is to eliminate the Ukrainian culture. Look at Crimea, Ukrainians under Russia have been treated as second class citizens


195 posted on 02/14/2024 12:13:58 PM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: Godzilla

I’m sure you’re right - and can back up your position with credible facts. You have good judgement and sensitivities...

That siad, there’s lots of evil and pettiness in the world - and an abundance of ‘unfairness’ and injustice.

But the United States doesn’t have the resources to right these wrongs, This battle IMHO isn’t worth more than our own national concerns. We need to keep the Chinese out of our country and out of gaining more influence in South America. When we have our house in order and our borders secure. If those probems are solved I’ll start to care. For now I see this as two corrupt countries being corrupt - not our circuses - not our monkeys - not our business.,


196 posted on 02/14/2024 3:22:25 PM PST by GOPJ (Mayorkas reeks of that 'CIA (Creepy Thug Assh*le') mentality. Ashli Babbit's killer was promoted..)
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To: GOPJ

The pillars holding civilization are breaking all across the globe. I am questioning the ability to fix this country. Pretty pessimistic I know. It is becoming increasingly obvious that we are facing powers we don’t have a handle on.


197 posted on 02/14/2024 3:44:02 PM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: Godzilla
The pillars holding civilization are breaking all across the globe

I heard someone on some talk show recently use this analogy as to what is happening in the world. (or maybe is was to describe what is happening in the US) Think of a single cell creature (amoeba?) dividing into 2 cells. Bet it is pretty painful to divide like that, but it is creating something new. I dunno, I kinda felt it comforting, but I am probably just silly. :)
198 posted on 02/14/2024 9:06:24 PM PST by Chani ( )
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To: Chani

IMHO, nothing new is going to be created - just the same old socialists pipe dreams with the associated genocide of those not willing to go along with it. Note that the WEF / Schwab for instance calls for destruction of the current system followed by the replacement with his dystopian view of a totalitarian society - with liberal amounts of lipstick. If and when this is accomplished our worlds civilization will collapse.


199 posted on 02/15/2024 5:34:58 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

I made mentions in other comments yesterday about the pillars of civilization falling apart and generally inferring that a major global collapse is coming fast. I expand more - in that much can be related to the fall of the Roman empire and current events. This fall resulted in much of Europe falling backwards culturally and coming under brutal control of various barbarian cultures. Lost was the level of civilization that wouldn’t be regained for centuries.

The things I’m seeing today resemble more a dystopian science fiction novel than what I could ever have imagined really happening. And since 2020, the rollercoaster ride has only gotten worse - with no safeguards. I find my self wondering (along with many others now), will we even have an election this year. Red lights are becoming more numerous on the panel and the prospect to dial things back is becoming more remote.

Sorry for the gloom and doom, but sometimes our normalcy bias needs to be shaken up for us to lift up our heads and come to grips with the world around us so we can make plans to mitigate the coming chaos as much as possible.


Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
George Soros is poised to take a massive stake in the nation’s second-largest radio company, which owns more than 220 stations nationwide, according to court filings and sources close to the situation.
The left-leaning billionaire’s Soros Fund Management has bought up $400 million of debt in Audacy — the No. 2 US radio broadcaster behind iHeartMedia with stations including New York’s WFAN and 1010 WINS, as well as Los Angeles-based KROQ, according to bankruptcy filings.
One insider close to the situation, noting that he was a Republican, said he believed it was possible Soros was buying the stake to exert influence on public opinion in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election.

https://nypost.com/2024/02/14/business/george-soros-poised-to-control-audacy/

OBSERVATION - A figure almost as large by himself as the WEF, soros knows how the process works. Already, most media outlets are owned by just a handful of leftist power brokers. I’ve seen numerous video clips of widely separated TV station news reports parroting the exact same words on an issue time and again. News papers all start to read alike. Soros is counting on the sheeple not being discerning enough and swallowing the propaganda hook, line and sinker.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

***
Cross reference this with Illegal Immigration -

New York State National Guard troops are being told to check all migrants arriving in the Big Apple for distinctive tattoos linking them to the vicious Venezuelan “Tren de Aragua” street gang, The Post has learned.
The decree comes as the NYPD this week issued a “Situational Awareness Alert” warning that the brutal gang is increasingly making its presence known in the five boroughs — with members claiming asylum at the US border and flocking to New York to join other gangbangers.

“It’s to a point that they had to post policies on use of force like if we were in a combat zone,” one National Guard source said Wednesday.

“Tren de Aragua” — Spanish for Aragua Train, a shout-out to the gang’s origins as a railroad labor union in Aragua, Venezuela — is growing in numbers in the Big Apple and has been linked by law enforcement to a recent spree of cellphone robberies, The Post revealed this week.

The brutal gang is now firmly on the NYPD’s radar, with the new bulletin warning: “Tren de Aragua’s newly established presence in New York City may incite further gang-related violence — including stabbings, assaults and robberies — raising public safety concerns.”

https://nypost.com/2024/02/14/us-news/national-guard-urged-to-check-migrants-arriving-in-nyc-for-tren-de-aragua-tattoos-as-gangs-numbers-grow-stateside/

OBSERVATION - While focus has been recently on this Venezuelan gang and its growing relationship with MS-13, I want to reemphasize the the role these foreign gangs are likely to play in a scenario where a hotter CW2 scenario blossoms out. We’ve already seen how crime has exploded in these blue metro cities - driven in part by drastically undermanned police forces and liberal prosecutors - now consolidating under larger gangs that have become multinational. Initial fighting will be the bloodiest between these international gangs and those indigenous to metro areas (call them ‘old school’ if you could). They will fight for initial control of city resources such as food, and fuel as a means to extort money from the trapped civilians.
This will put the ‘left’s’ so called revolutionaries at a disadvantage of having to protect against these gangs while challenging the more rural whites.

IN RELATED - These illegals and the crime organizations they are moving into the US with, are reportedly expanding operations into smaller towns with a degree of technological skill that is very concerning. In Ohio, these gangs are using WiFi jamming technology to blind WiFi linked security systems in order to hit homes and businesses of the wealth in these more rural towns.

***
Buried in all the other craziness, Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, argued that it’s not in the American people’s national security interest to require a warrant for surveillance. He’s rejecting a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) amendment that mandates a warrant for spying on Americans. He said it is not in the interest of the American people not to be spied on without a court warrant.

OBSERVATION - Talk about gaslighting.


Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***

More than 20 people were shot during the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory parade. As of Wednesday afternoon, one death had been confirmed. It was also confirmed that nine of the patients being treated for gun wounds are minors.

Police have yet to release the identities of the victims or the names of the alleged shooter(s). However, reporting on social media indicate that the three shooters were black males - probably making their reporting less likely to come out.

Police were still unsure whether the Super Bowl victory celebration was targeted for attack, or whether the violence was incidental to the event and spilled over into it.

OBSERVATION - Listed under terrorism for now until more details come out. Given the ethnicity of those involved, this could range from a drug deal gone bad, gang squabble to an outright black on white racist (terror) attack taking advantage of those concentrated in attendance. Also, given the ethnicity of the shooters, we will never really know if the last motive is true or not. The shooting has already prompted more calls for gun control, but I’ll be the shooters have a mile long rap sheet and should have been behind bars and not out on the streets.


Economy-

A key measure of home-purchase applications slumped last week amid a sharp increase in mortgage rates.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) index of mortgage applications fell 2.3% for the week ended Feb. 9, compared with the previous week, according to new data published Wednesday.

The data also showed that the average rate on the popular 30-year loan rose to 6.87%. While that is down from a peak of 8% in October, it marks the highest level for interest rates since December 2023.

“Application activity was weaker last week, as mortgage rates moved higher across the board,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-demand-tumbles-interest-rates-rise-highest-level-december

OBSERVATION - I’ve repeatedly pointed to the housing market as a major touchstone sector to evaluate the health of the country’s economy. It continues to reflect the ills of the economy and it is hard to see just what will turn it around for Americans. Few can afford the current home prices and even fewer the crazy expensive mortgages.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Planting this story here for now - if it grows legs, will likely shift discussions into a new category.

The chairman of the House intelligence committee, Rep. Mike Turner, issued an unusual cryptic statement on Wednesday saying the committee had made available to all members of Congress information about an unspecified “serious national security threat.”

But sources close to ABC News report that the threat relates to Russia’s plans to place a nuclear weapon in space. According to ABC: “This is not to drop a nuclear weapon onto Earth but rather to possibly use against satellites.” Rumors also indicate that Russia is still 2-3 years out from actually deploying this system.

One possible candidate for this threat may be associated with the
February 9th launch the Cosmos-2575 Mission, using a Soyuz-2 Rocket carrying an “Unknown Payload into Space for the Russian Ministry of Defense.

This act would be a gross violation of international treaty. The Outer Space Treaty, formally the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, is a multilateral treaty that forms the basis of international space law. Negotiated and drafted under the auspices of the United Nations, it was opened for signature in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union on 27 January 1967, entering into force on 10 October 1967. As of August 2023, 114 countries are parties to the treaty—including all major spacefaring nations—and another 22 are signatories.

One of the key provisions of the Outer Space Treaty include prohibiting nuclear weapons in space. It does not prohibit placement of conventional weapons in orbit.

While the current speculation focuses on placement of nuclear anti-satellite weapons, the usefulness of such a weapon is questionable given the proliferation and capabilities of earth launched anti satellite weapons.

The greater concern would be the placement of Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) weaponry. FOBS are space-based nuclear bombs (actual warheads) that can be released at ANY time, orbit the earth several times under their own power for months or years (or just once), then come down anywhere on the planet with ZERO advance warning to the intended target.

Such weaponry would generate a massive nuclear arms race in space to ensure a mutually assured destruction scenario as the defense against such weapons is virtually zero as noted above.

OBSERVATION - Over the past 5-10 years, Russia has detached itself from many nuclear related treaties that had their origins in the Reagan administration. More recently Russia has basically stated that it’ll do what it wants in the way of updating its nuclear arsenal - and has aggressively developed new ICBMs and warheads. Moscow has even gone as far as saying that it will resume actual nuclear testing - if and when it wants to. Thus blowing off the Outer Space Treaty would not be an outlier, but one of a continuation of actions by Russia to nullify or ignore existing treaties/agreement’s. So the probability if high that Russia has or is planning to place such a weapon system into orbit.

Interesting that Trump set up a separate military command to address such threats.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

***
Three separate prosecutors reportedly met with White House aides before indicting former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s political opponent.

The reported meetings suggest a coordinated attack against Biden’s 2024 rival. If coordination occurred, it lends credence to Trump’s belief that the indictments are election interference.

The timing of the indictments are peculiar. After Trump announced a reelection bid against Biden, four indictments hit Trump in four separate jurisdictions, each following revelations about the Biden family business.

In three cases, prosecutors reportedly met with the Biden administration before indicting Trump:
Alvin Bragg: New York – “Stormy Daniels” Case (state)
Jack Smith: Miami – “Documents” Case (federal)
Fani Willis: Fulton County, Georgia (state)

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/02/14/prosecutors-reportedly-met-with-biden-admin-before-3-trump-indictments/

OBSERVATION - There should be no doubt that this was a WH orchestrated campaign to shut down Trump. Remember, those in power now were behind the now demonstrably bogus and illegal “Russia Russia Russia” accusations of Trump’s first term.

***

Fallout and speculation continue after disclosures that the Russia collusion hoax was started and orchestrated by the Obama CIA. Growing evidence points to the suspected possession of the declassified binder on CIA involvement in Crossfire Hurricane - the operational name given for the smear campaign.. Growing speculation that Mar-a-Lago was raided because of information that former President Donald Trump may have had on Crossfire Hurricane and in particular, this binder.

This binder theory has been floating around for well over a year, but the documentation that 0bama unleashed the CIA to foment the Russian Collusion scam has only recently appeared - and in limited form.

Words escape me on the level of corruption from the 0bama administration and the CIA, FBI and NSA on this whole scandal.


Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***
Immigration and Customs Enforcement is discussing releasing nearly half of detained migrants to make up for a budget shortfall.
Four ICE and Department of Homeland Security officials told the Washington Post that the agency is currently experiencing its greatest budget shortfall in recent memory, at $700 million. To compensate, ICE officials are circulating an internal memorandum that proposes cutting detention beds from 38,000 to just 22,000.

The move was interpreted by some conservative figures as a hostile move from the Biden administration, retaliating for House Republicans refusing to pass an aid bill that allocated dozens of billions to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, alongside $7.6 billion for ICE. It was also interpreted as retaliation against the House’s impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

“In response to Mayorkas impeachment, Biden regime payback includes threat to release even more illegal aliens,” Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/immigration/2856568/ice-circulates-plan-to-release-thousands-of-detainees-to-ease-deficit/

OBSERVATION - This is blackmail, pure and simple. In congressional testimony, Mayorkas admitted that nearly 85% of the caught illegals are being dumped on US streets as it is. It is demonstrably more efficient and cost effect to simply close the border and turn these illegals back.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.

Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

See “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above regarding possible Russian deployment of nuclear weapons into orbit.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Some analysts are indicating that Russia has gotten its conscription and recruiting problems under control and can enlist at rates about equal to the ongoing losses in Ukraine. Some suggest that Russia can sustain such levels for a couple years before the body pool started to be significantly drained.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 12 Kh-101 missiles, 2 of 2 Kaliber cruise missiles, 1 of 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 2 of 4 Kh-59 missiles, also Russia launched 2 S-300 missiles from Belgorod region.
Multiple hits in western Ukraine, Kharkiv and Kyiv regions.

Avdiivka -

Greater and greater concerns over the defense of Avdiivka are coming from Ukrainian sources. Again, major emphasis on the lack of ammo and artillery rounds. For over a year, Ukraine has made this battle field a death zone for Russian forces because they could place timely artillery on Russian target. With out it, the Russian ‘meat’ attacks - essentially human waves - backed up by Russian artillery no longer fearing Ukraine counter battery fire - is carving up key portions of the Ukraine defensive lines.

The drive by Russian forces to isolate Avdiivka by cutting southwest between the town and the coke refinery is holding and now threatening Ukraines’ secondary supply route into the town. It is reaching a point where Ukraine must make a critical decision - commit enough reserves to eliminate the Russian push and reestablish supply lines or begin a staged withdrawal from the city.

Russian Territory –

Russian Telegram channels report a fire at an oil refinery in Kursk region near Polevaya village. According to them, a 100 tonnes reservoir is burning. Kursk governor said it was a drone attack.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine. See comments above.
Ukraine also continues to hit Russian oil refineries - exploiting gaps in ADA coverage and hitting key facilities resulting in significant losses in fuel for not only the civilian but military use.


Belarus -

Belarus declared counter-terrorism operation in Lelchitsky district of Homiel region on the border of Ukraine . State govt also announced that this was a routine exercise.
NOTE - Homiel was one of the major staging areas Russia used in its invasion of N Ukraine.


Pakistan –

Pakistan’s army-backed Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have announced an agreement to form a coalition government, despite the currently jailed ex-PM Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PIT) emerging as clearly the single most popular ‘winner’ from the Feb.8 elections. No party singularly won an outright majority of seats in parliament, however.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s PPP confirmed that it would help Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League elect a prime minister. Meetings to form an alliance began Tuesday night, and by Wednesday morning it was widely being reported that former PM Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz, has been nominated.

Crucially, these are the very two parties who were in the coalition that ousted then PM Imran Khan from power in 2022, after which he was slapped with literally over 100 charges of corruption. Khan’s supporters have said we are witnessing a process whereby the military and its political allies are ‘stealing’ an election, after Khan’s PIT was already barred from the election, with its candidates forced to run as independents.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pakistan-imran-khan-says-daylight-robbery-afoot-rivals-form-coalition-govt-nominate

OBSERVATION - If this pans out, Pakistan is on the transjectory for continued civil disruption to the edge of a low grade civil war. Lay on top of this, grown islamic terrorism in more outlying regions also threatening the govt and you have a scary scenario where nuclear weapons could get into the wrong hands.


ISRAEL –

Now the war is entering its 5th month.

Key overnight developments -

- Increasing tensions along the Israeli/Lebanese border.

- Facing proof of UNRWA collusion with Hamas and associated loss of funding, UNRWA officials are pleading for more money.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

UNRWA Commissioner-General - “If there are no new contributions, our operations will face a major funding shortage in April.”
“Dismantling the agency will be a disappointment to the Palestinians from the international community and will affect their lives.”

***
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Israel has proposed setting up tent compounds for Palestinian evacuees currently sheltering in Rafah, as part of a developing plan funded by the United States and Arab countries, in preparation for an IDF ground operation.

According to a report in the Lebanese news site Al-Akhbar, the establishment of the tent cities is a coordination between Israel, the United States, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The funding and construction of the tent cities largely being the responsibility of the US and its Arab partners. The tent cities would also include medical field clinics.
The Al-Akhbar report said the communities will be run by “mukhtars,” government officials appointed by authorities, and who are not affiliated with Hamas.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-palestinian-refugees/2024/02/14/id/1153538/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.

The Israeli army says that its special forces are carrying out an operation inside Nasser Hospital in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces says it has “credible intelligence”, including from released hostages, that Hamas held hostages at the hospital in southern Gaza. Militants appear to be operating from within the hospital too.

IDF continues in its preparation of the battlefield for entering Rafah. Current pause being to let civilians evacuate the town.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.

***
The Prime Minister of Lebanon asks the Foreign Ministry to submit a new complaint against Israel in the Security Council.

***
Senior Hezbollah official and member of parliament Hassan Fadlallah said on Thursday that Israel would face reprisal after two sets of strikes on southern Lebanon the previous day killed 10 civilians, half of them children.

“The enemy (Israel) will pay the price for these crimes,” Fadlallah told Reuters when asked about the powerful Iran-backed armed group’s reaction to the deadliest day for civilians in Lebanon since hostilities began along its southern border.

The Israeli strikes on Wednesday came after shelling of a military base in northern Israel killed one soldier and waves of rocket attacks on N Israeli towns. Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for that attack.

***
During an assessment in northern Israel, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says the IDF is preparing for war in the north, amid Hezbollah’s daily attacks from Lebanon.

“We are not finishing this without returning the residents to Metula and all the communities in the north, with a very high level of security,” Halevi says, referring to some 80,000 Israelis displaced by Hezbollah’s attacks.
“We are now focused on being ready for war in the north. If it does not end in war, it will not end with any compromise to the achievements,” he says.
“Hezbollah is not here on the fence, we will push back all its capabilities, it will be much quieter here, there will be much more stability here and then residents can return,” Halevi continues. “Will this happen tomorrow? Probably not. It will take some time.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-18/

———WEST BANK——————————-

Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The President of Brazil from Cairo - “Israel’s behavior in Gaza has no explanation, as it kills women and children under the pretext of fighting Hamas”

***
The United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries are restricting the US’s use of military facilities in their territory to launch airstrikes against the Iranian axis, people familiar with the issue told Politico on Wednesday.

The restrictions come as Arab countries attempt to balance the desire to help the US deter Iran and its proxies, while also assuaging their citizens’ anger toward Israel.

Several Iranian proxies have threatened to attack Arab states that the US uses to launch strikes from.

In October, just a few weeks after the Israel-Hamas war began, Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq, an Iran-backed militia believed to be linked to the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah militia, threatened to target bases where American forces are housed in Kuwait and the UAE.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.

As Israel build up for its enterence in to Rafah, so too does warnings from international sources. However, much of the collusion of the UNRWA with hamas combined with the conditions the rescued hostages were held under have blunted some of the warnings.

Analysts are suggesting that Israel will hold off its assault for a couple weeks, to give time for the evacuation and associated erection of a tent city to house the gazans.

Just dawned on me that in regards to the rocket attacks coming from Lebanon, the shift of the source of the attacks has occurred. Initial attacks were by hamas affiliated groups launching poor quality rockets. Now essentially all rockets being fired are from Hezbollah - an act that has definitely pulled them into a spiral of escalation with Israel. As Ive noted before, this has also granted israel ample justification to attack key command and logistical facilities Hezbollah will rely on during the eventual all out war with Israel.



200 posted on 02/15/2024 6:55:56 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson )
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