CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Continued actions by other governors to supply support to TX efforts to seal the border.
***
Pro-hamas rioters attempted to break into a meeting being held by NYC mayor Adams.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Sunday, 36-year-old Genesse Ivonne Moreno, accompanied by a five-year-old child, walked into Joel Osteen’s Lakewood Church in Houston on Sunday and opened fire with an AR-15-style modern sporting rifle, wounding a 57-year-old man before being killed by security guards. The child was wounded and is hospitalized.
The shooter was a “transwoman” whose real name was Jeffrey Escalante. Escalante was from El Salvador, but there is no word on his immigration status. The AR-15 he carried had “Free Palestine” written on it. As one of my colleagues noted, someone with a rifle with “Free Palestine” scrawled on it using a child as a human shield is just about as on-brand as you can get.
In the past four years, there has been a surge in the number of mass shootings carried out by transgender or related murderers. In addition to Hale, we have:
Colorado Springs, CO, nightclub shooting (Attorney: Suspected Colorado Mass Shooter Identifies as ‘Non-Binary’), November 2022, Anderson Aldrich (Nicholas Brink), “non-binary.”
Denver, CO, school shooting (Father of Colorado High School Shooting Suspect is an Illegal Immigrant Deported Twice, Charged with Very Serious Crimes), May 2019, Maya “Alec” McKinney, transgender female-to-male.
Aberdeen, MD, workplace shooting (Last Week There Was a Mass Shooting at a Maryland Industrial Park but No One Seems to Care), September 2018, Snochia Moseley, transgender female-to-male.
OBSERVATION - A terroristic act, could also associate with illegal immigration too.
People with severe mental issues - such as many in the ‘trans’ community are rising to the surface as a serious random threat to society. Social media has drilled into many of these people the idea that they are being exterminated by Christians and others of the right - so they are justified in going out and killing them. What adds to this is that Moreno has a long rap sheet and is an illegal alien too boot.
Economy-
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The U.S. CDC plans to drop its five-day COVID-19 isolation recommendations under new guidance planned by the agency, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.
The health agency plans to recommend people who test positive for COVID-19 to take a call on when to end isolation based on their symptoms.
People with mild and improving symptoms would no longer need to stay home if they have been fever-free for at least 24 hours, the report said citing CDC officials familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - wuhan has been a nothing burger for the last two years.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The House has passed a resolution to remove Ilhan Omar from the Foreign Affairs Committee.
About time!
***
This is going to get ugly fast.
The Senate is wasting its time passing tens of millions of dollars in foreign aid without border security measures, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) suggested in a Monday night statement.
In a statement issued less than an hour before the Senate began a series of procedural votes to waive budgetary points of order and invoke cloture on the bill, Johnson dismissed the efforts, suggesting the House would not bring up the bill.
“In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”
“House Republicans were crystal clear from the very beginning of discussions that any so-called national security supplemental legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border,” Johnson said. “The House acted ten months ago to help enact transformative policy change by passing the Secure Our Border Act, and since then, including today, the Senate has failed to meet the moment.”
The bill Johnson touts, often referred to as “H.R. 2” on Capitol Hill, is the standard demand for border hawks and House Republicans for Congressional action on the border.
OBSERVATION - Yes this will get VERY ugly. At this stage, the prioritization of foreign support versus the outstanding need for border security (and not the crap kind McConnell tried to foist on us a couple weeks ago) has become stark. Republicans are overextending to enact Democratic Party priorities, while kicking the base to the curb and selling out the country.
BTW - it has been pointed out that this bill has an impeachment booby trap embedded within it - designed to thwart any attempt by Trump to cancel payments as he did his first term. Really nice of republicans - or are they really republicans - to let this get in.
But lets be realistic - the regime will simply continue to ignore the laws it disagrees with and any border security bill will be ignored as well.
Very ugly in that beneath all this off the top rope legislating efforts, there is no apparent move forward to get a budget funded for the remaining FY. Mar 1 the curtain comes down and it looks like the House is ready to execute this option.
***
Judge Scott McAfee on Monday said Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis may be disqualified from Trump’s RICO case over her improper relationship with top Trump prosecutor Nathan Wade.
The judge also said Thursday’s evidentiary hearing on alleged misconduct ‘must occur.’
“I think it’s clear that disqualification can occur if evidence is produced demonstrating an actual conflict or the appearance of one,” Judge McAfee said in Monday’s hearing. “The state has admitted a relationship existed. And so what remains to be proven is the existence and extent of any financial benefit, again if there even was one. And so because I think its possible that the facts alleged by the defendant could result in disqualification, I think an evidentiary hearing must occur to establish the record on those core allegations.”
“I think the issues at point here are whether a relationship existed, whether that relationship was romantic or non-romantic in nature, when it formed, and whether it continues. And that’s only relevant because it’s in combination with the question of the existence and extent of any personal benefit conveyed as a result of their relationship,” the judge said.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/breaking-judge-says-fulton-county-da-fani-willis/
OBSERVATION - The massive law fare efforts to prevent trump from running for president have been unraveling very quickly lately. Pending the likely strong rebuke from the USSC and now to this scandal. Even Smith’s cases are disassembling. One must watch to see just what hail mary’s the DoJ and others will throw to try to regain the initiative and effort.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden’s upcoming physical exam will not include a cognitive test, White House says
Biden and his administration are so certain that he is cognitively perfect that the president will decline to take a test to determine his mental capacities.
***
President Joe Biden wandered around the podium like a ‘lost puppy’ during a crucial press conference regarding the on going conflict in Israel alongside Jordanian King Abdullah at the White House on Tuesday.
After delivering remarks, Biden, 81, told the king: ‘Your majesty, over to you.’ The Scranton-native proceeded to stand back to the king’s left, laser focused on the floor, apparently looking for a marker. Right-wing commentator Benny Johnson described the president as looking like a ‘lost puppy.’
A few seconds later, Biden walks to the other side of the king, still looking for a mark. He then goes back to his first choice, in front of Jordan’s flag. ‘I switched sides on you,’ he remarked while smiling at the king.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13077437/joe-Biden-jordan-king-abdullah-video.html
OBSERVATION - What an embarrassment.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Projections suggest over 5,400 police officers were injured by suspects in New York City in 2023, as the Big Apple remains in the grip of a disorderly migrant crisis. The number of officers injured by suspects in 2022 stood at 4,724, a 20 percent increase on the 2021 figure of 3,933. Full figures for 2023 have not been released, but 4,077 officers had been injured after just nine months, with projections indicating the total for the year would have been around 5,436.
News of the new statistics follows a high-profile attack on two police officers by a migrant gang in Times Square. Four suspects in the incident, which saw the officers repeatedly kicked in the head while on the ground, were arrested shortly afterward, and another the following day. All turned out to be asylum seekers, and four of them were released without bail within hours of their detention, thanks to Democrat reforms. Most of them promptly absconded, sparking a nationwide manhunt.
OBSERVATION - Rampant lawlessness spurred on by essentially no enforcement of laws or consequences by progressive DA’s and justice system.
When the S hits the fan, law enforcement will likely be off to one side out of fear of their own lives. Mayors and DA’s have cut them out to dry under the whole defund the police. This will in turn generate more citizen self defense - actions the left would characterize as ‘vigilantism’ and crack down on citizens - not criminals.
If you have’t looked in depth at what happens in a without rule of law (WROL) scenario, you should - scare the beegebbers out of you.
***
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas joined Kristen Welker on Meet the Press on Sunday to discuss the Biden open borders invasion at the US southern border.
During the interview Secretary Mayorkas told Welker “We don’t bear responsibility” for the open US border and the 11 million illegals who have invaded the US under their watch.
OBSERVATION - This individual is total filth - Fauci level filth.
***
A couple in Boston signed up to a government scheme to house illegal immigrants in their own home and were delivered an entire family of four within an hour, according to a CBS News report.
“When Colin and Jessica Stokes called the state to sign up to be a host family, it took less than an hour for the displaced migrants to be dropped off at their door,” the report notes, adding “The family of four, who didn’t want to go on camera, had made been sleeping at Logan Airport“
The couple, Colin and Jessica Stokes, said that “they knew they had the means and wanted to step up,” and that “It has been wonderful.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/brookline-family-hosts-migrants-sleeping-floor-logan-airport/
OBSERVATION - Time will tell when the silverware starts missing. any bets?
***
The links to 0bama controlling the WH grows -
Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice emerged as a central — and controversial — coordinator of the administration’s approach to the border. Some officials found her needlessly combative and disagreed with her policy-wise. But even many of her critics credit her with taking on more responsibility on the border at a time when most other top Biden officials were shying away from it. There was — and still is — deep animosity toward Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra for what was seen as his reluctance to find more space in child migrant shelters, which are overseen by HHS, according to several sources familiar with the dynamics. Rice referred to Becerra as a “bitch-ass” and privately called him an “idiot,” according to multiple sources. During one meeting when Biden was tearing into Becerra, Rice passed Mayorkas a note that read: “Don’t save him,” according to two people familiar with the meeting. Rice also clashed repeatedly with Sherwood-Randall and had tension with Vice President Harris, according to people familiar with the dynamics.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/report-former-obama-adviser-susan-rice-is-central/
OBSERVATION - Rice is a notorious evil doer from the 0bama reign of terror. That she is apparently calling the shots is just another indicator the evil one hasn’t let go his grip on the WH.
***
The tsunami grows at a faster and faster pace.
Illegal interceptions - not counting got aways.
2024 SO FAR: 988,819
2023: 3,201,144
2022: 2,766,582
2021: 1,956,519
2020: 405,036
2019: 859,501
2018: 404,142
2017: 310,531
NOTE- Already exceeding the total number for the years preceding biden.
China –
Taiwan’s defense ministry says that it detected 8 Chinese balloons crossing the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, the second day in a row that it detected large numbers of balloons crossing the Strait.
OBSERVATION - these balloons are similar to the one biden allowed to drift all the way across the country last year. In the case of Taiwan, the numbers of these balloons have been steadily increasing.
North/South Korea –
Reports that NK has developed a 200mm MRLS system that they are planning to ship to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Logistics –
Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks during its invasion of Ukraine – the equivalent of its entire pre-war active inventory – but has enough lower-quality armored vehicles in storage for years of replacements, a leading research center said Tuesday.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy loses since the invasion began in February 2022, but Western military replenishments have allowed it to maintain inventories while upgrading quality, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual Military Balance report.
“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity though, by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month,” said the report, a key reference tool for defense analysts.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/russia-tanks-ukraine/2024/02/13/id/1153357/
OBSERVATION - It is reports like this that indicates to me Russia is in no position to continue its attack into Eastern Europe / Baltic regions. They face similar major losses of artillery as well.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 of 23 Shahed drones. Major target was Dnipro City where water treatment and electrical grid was hit. Odessa was also targeted.
Fighting along the line from Avdiivka south to Marinka has increased overnight. Ukraine has sent reinforcements into Avdiivka to hold the flanks from persistent russian attacks.
Increased fighting also noted south of Bakhmut.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The battle for Avdiivka is further heating up with the arrival of Ukraine reinforcements. Ukraine may also have reallocated artillery ammo reserves to back them up as well. Russia is fallowing the tactic it used at Bakhmut - slow but steady advances on the flanks - avoiding direct attacks into the city and eventually cutting supplies and troops off. For Ukraine - it is forcing Russia to continue to commit forces it could use elsewhere for the winter/spring offensive efforts.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel increases pressure on Rafah
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
Hamas announces the killing of 3 Israeli detainees (hostages) in raids carried out by the Israeli army in the Rafah area.
New details about rescued hostages, Fernando Marman and Louis Har.
Their relatives say that they had cooked for the family that had held them captive.
NOTE - Gazan “civilians” holding hostages
***
An initiative to declare UNRWA a terrorist organization is being spearheaded by the Shurat HaDin Law Center, representing dozens of October 7 massacre victims.
The current initiative comes in light of the IDF’s recent revelation of the Hamas command center in the Hamas tunnels below UNRWA’s headquarters, which operates on behalf of the UN in the Gaza Strip.
***
The Biden administration, after urging by left-wing Democrats, issued a memorandum Thursday that will require Israel to submit a report within 45 days on its compliance with international humanitarian law in its war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
The memorandum, announced by the White House, theoretically applies to any country that receives weapons from the United States and is actively involved in armed conflict. But the White House all but admitted Friday that it was targeted at Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israel is maneuvering forces in anticipation of moving into the Rafah to engage the last of Hamas forces and try to rescue more hostages.
IDF liquidated more Hamas elements in the Khan Yunis region.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah announced the killing of 5 of its members in an Israeli bombing on the areas of southern Lebanon
High numbers of IDF air and artillery strikes all along the Lebanese border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US will continue its operations in Iraq and Syria — Biden
Houthi attempted more cruise and ballistic missile attacks overnight. Seems that without the Iranian intel ships in the gulf, Houthi engagements continue at very low levels. CAP also hitting more launchers before they can fire as well.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Hussein Al-Sheikh - The Arab group led by Saudi Arabia is preparing a joint paper that includes 3 steps to stop the war
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The rescue of two hostages a couple days ago seems to have taken some of the air of the don’t invade Rafah chorus - by demonstrating that Hamas remains a threat and needs to be taken out. Additionally, demonstrates that gazan “civilians” are actively participating in hostage retention.
Looks like the church shooter may have changed name/identity to avoid an immigration detainer after he was arrested for assault in 2010.
Genesse Moreno. IMMIGRATION DETAINER. Houston Texas.
JLR© INVESTIGATES!
2.2K views1 hour ago
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yywq0j5zUU
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab says that humankind is transitioning into “The Intelligent Age” powered by technologies coming from the fourth industrial revolution at the World Governments Summit.
Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, UAE, on Monday, Schwab said that the fourth industrial revolution – which will lead to the fusion of our physical, biological, and digital identities – is powering a global transition of humankind into a new era called The Intelligent Age in which “humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities.”
“Now, we are not speaking just about the fourth industrial revolution; we are speaking about the transition of humankind into a new era, which is not just characterized by technological change – a new era where humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities,” said Schwab in his speech entitled “Civilizations of Tomorrow: Built to Fail or Rise?”
“It’s a transition. We first had the transition about a hundred years ago from the agricultural society to the industrial society, but today we speak about transitioning into what I would call ‘the intelligent age,’” he added.
According to Schwab, the WEF’s plans for the “new world” involve a “fusion between our physical, our digital, and our biological dimensions.”
OBSERVATION - His talk covered portions of his trans humanism goals - a merger of man and machines. In doing so he spews the continual lie that socialism will allow us to ‘enjoy’ more and more things. I guess him, like others, believe socialism wasn’t properly practiced before.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
See ‘POLITICAL FRONT” regarding likely CIA plot to spy on Trump and his associates.
Such an action if verified, would essentially represent the Deep State owned CIA declaring war on the American people and ripping the concept of the constitution to shreds.
****
Deadly alliance brewing between MS-13 and bloodthirsty Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang behind NYC cellphone robberies, FBI fears.
They extort Venezuelans by demanding that they pay bribes in exchange for protection and even to cross the border from Venezuela into Colombia and from Mexico into the US, he said.
Tren de Aragua has taken advantage of an explosion in Venezuelan migration to come across the southern border. There were more than 340,000 “encounters” with migrants from the country at the border last year, making them second only to Mexicans.
Another expert warned that there is also a risk of turf wars between gangs.
“They are already coming over as hardened criminals,” said Robert Almonte, a security consultant and former US marshal in El Paso.
OBSERVATION - Cross over from illegal immigration. I’ve noted several times now the growth of Venezuelan gangs here in the US and in particular NYC. This is given that Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent the criminals north to America. A merger with MS-13 is a logical progression. MS-13 has been operating in the Northeast US for a considerable number of years and already has the criminal infrastructure these Venezuelan gangsters can fit right in to.
In the event things go sideways in the US, gangs like this will take advantage of the chaos to establish a much larger rule over metropolitan areas. This will usher in significant turf wars between gangs as well as terrorizing residents thru protection ‘fees’, and other crime.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The path to getting inflation down has not been steady. On Tuesday, another bump got in the way.
Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.1 percent in January compared with the year before. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4 percent annual rate notched in December, and leagues below the post-covid peak of 9.1 percent.
But the report came in hotter than analysts expected, narrowly dashing hopes that the annual inflation figure would dip below 3 percent for the first time since early 2021. And as the Federal Reserve fights to wrestle inflation all the way down to a more normal 2 percent, central bankers know success is still just out of reach, potentially slowing the Fed’s march toward the first interest rate cut in years. (WAPO)
inflation soaring in essential areas:
Car Insurance Inflation: 20.6%
Transportation Inflation: 9.5%
Hospital Services Inflation: 6.7%
Car Repair Inflation: 6.5%
Homeowner Inflation: 6.2%
Rent Inflation: 6.1%
Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.1%
OBSERVATION - The numbers that really hit the pocket book continue to rise back up. Layoffs, going deeper in debt, etc all speak against biden’s claim that he has restored us to a roaring economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Carriers USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) continue to operate in the Philippine Sea .
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
CIA and foreign intelligence agencies in a new report, illegally targeted 26 Trump associates before 2016 Russia collusion claims. FBI started spying on the Trump campaign after foreign governments “by chance” discovered evidence that his advisors were colluding with the Russians, the government says. But now, multiple credible sources tell us that the CIA asked foreign allies to spy on 26 Trump associates.
OBSERVATION - Details of this CIA lead coup against Trump are still coming out. If these reports are true, we have a serious problem at hand with a powerful, rogue agency that has been weaponized against democrat opposition and even against a duly elected president.
***
By a one vote margin, House voted to impeach Mayorkas!
OBSERVATION - A symbolic event as the Senate will not vote to throw his sorry arse out of the position. In fact, he may grow even more belligerent toward defending the border.
***
Democrat Tom Suozzi is projected to win New York’s Third Congressional District election. At publishing time, Suozzi leads Mazi Pilp, 54.2% to 45.8% with 85% reporting.
This is for former republican congressman George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District
Mazi Pilp was a democrat running as a republican.
***
House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-KY) and Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland requesting all documents and transcripts from Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation of President Biden related to Ukraine and China.
OBSERVATION - While the basis for the request is the effort to build the case to impeach biden, it has the potential for exposing biden’s mental issues.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
China –
China’s Consul General in Manila Zhang Zhen described the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling on the South China Sea as “illegal, null, and void,” adding that China “has never and will never accept it” during a Chinese New Year celebration in the Philippines.
OBSERVATION - Indicative of China’s more aggressive policy to seize key islands in the region under false pretenses. Refusal to follow international law by China is guaranteed to create more tensions and potential military conflict in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, speaking at Russian parliament says Russia is ready for talks in Ukraine, only if current occupation of lands in Ukraine accepted
Logistics –
A heavy fire broke out at Gazpromneft’s refinery in south-east Moscow. Normally, it supplies Moscow with 40% of the gasoline and 50% of the diesel the city needs, and also supplies the airports with most of the jet fuel they consume. No word as to the cause, and no reported drone activity
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Coming up on the anniversary of the war - Feb 24, 2022, Russian losses have been staggering. Expected to reach the 400K by the third anniversary of the invasion next week. Over twice the number initially involved in the invasion have been ‘eliminated.’
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian naval drones just sank the 112 meter long Russian Ropucha-class landing ship Caesar Kunikov (bottom left on this graphic) off the coast of Crimea. The Cesar Kunikov already escaped narrowly destruction when it was damaged in March 2022 in Berdyansk by a Tochka-U missile.
Observers in Crimea noted a second explosion, including a strong shockwave, similar to when ammunition exploded. It is highly probable the Kunikov was loaded with ammunition bound for the front when the attack occurred.
As part of the enemy’s Black Sea Fleet , there are still 5 landing ships available: “Azov”, “Korolev”, “Yamal”, “Orsk”, “Nikolay Filchenkov”.
The ship was named after major Cesar Kunikov - who died on Valentine’s Day 1943. Coincidence?
Avdiivka -
Fierce fighting continues around the city. Reports indicate that a Russian push from the NE has physically cut the town off from its primary supply line. Russian forces pushed between the northern end of the town and the coke plant to its northwest to cut off the road. Ukraine reinforcements are reportedly pushing in on the northwestern flank of this Russia assault. Ukraine has also switched to a secondary supply route. One of the biggest reports coming out is that Ukrainian forces are saying that they are running desperately short of ammunition.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine. With recent military leadership changes and low stocks of ammo, hard decisions will need to be made. Avdiivka has been a successful meat grinder for Ukraine with Russian losses running something like 10x the losses for Ukraine. But even at those ratios, you still need bullets and artillery to sustain the defense.
The Black Sea fleet suffered another major loss with the “Cesar Kunikov”. The large amphibious assault vessel was part of Russian efforts to provide redundancy in getting war supplies to Crimea and southern front areas. The risk of losing the Kersch Bridge looms high in the thoughts of Russian high command.
Russia has lost a number of amphibious ships over the past two years. Initially, they were considered a threat to the Odessa region, allowing Russia to leapfrog Ukraine obstacles and press forward to link up with Russian forces in Transnistria - forming the ‘land bridge’. However, massive failure in the assault against Kyiv and the north, pulled Russian marine forces out of the boats and into critical sectors. Another factor was the quick adaptation of the Neptune anti -ship defenses and other systems that would make an amphibious assault a very likely bloody loss for Russia.
The attack also show cases the advancement of Ukrainian boat drones - faster, less detectable and more deadly. This threat has basically kept Russia missile boats as far away as possible from the Crimea region - reducing the numbers of missiles available to assault Ukrainian infrastructure.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Attempts at reaching a deal for the release of the remaining hostages continue
- Hezbollah launches one of the largest rocket attack since the start of the war. Israel is retaliating with massive numbers of airstrikes.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby -
“The Israeli army is taking significant steps in order to lower the number of civilian casualties in Gaza, steps that I am not sure even the US army would have taken.”
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a direct appeal to Hamas, urging the group to release the hostages and swiftly reach a ceasefire agreement to prevent further displacement and hardship for the Palestinian people in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Tens of thousands of Gazans are moving north from Rafah to get away from the planned Israeli offensive.
IDF continues to make preparations to move into Rafah to engage the remnants of Hamas and seek out more hostages to rescue.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah fired off at least three large barrages of rockets into N Israel overnight. At least one barrage was targeted against Safed, killing 1 and wounding 9 - initial reports.
The head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Tuesday that his faction’s cross-border shelling into Israel would only end when Israel’s “aggression” on the Gaza Strip stops.
The Israeli Air Force has begun an extensive wave of strikes in Lebanon in response to the rocket fire earlier.
IAF bombed the Iqlim al-Tuffah area, deep in southern Lebanon. IAF also carried out a series of air strikes targeting the towns of Adchit in the Nabatieh Bassalia district in Iqlim al-Tuffah, and towns of al-Sawwanah and al-Shehabiya.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Shin Bet and IDF undercover forces have arrested Omar Fayed, one of the heads of the military wing of the terrorist organization Hamas in West Bank’s Jenin
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed militias targeted the Al-Omar military base eastern Syria overnight.
***
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that since the October 7th massacre by Hamas in Southern Israel, attacks by Iranian-backed groups against U.S. Forces in Eastern Syria and Iraq have caused at least 186 American casualties with 130 of those labeled as Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs).
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Combat between Israel and Hezbollah took a big turn in escalation overnight. At least three rocket barrages into N Israel and retaliatory airstrikes by the IAF through out S Lebanon. The rocket barrages are likely in response to recent Israeli targeted hits on Hezbollah leaders in S Lebanon. Israeli responses give them more opportunity to further degrade key Hezbollah facilities prior to the eventual real ground conflict kicking off. This is not a matter of “if” but now “when”.
IDF facilitated evacuations out of Rafah continue and soon the attack on Hamas’ final stronghold will begin in earnest. Tracking international reaction to the IDF rescue of two hostages - one sees an incredible spin. How dare Israel move to rescue hostages being held in Rafah, didn’t we tell them not to go into the city? - and other similar drivel.
Bottom line is that the IDF will likely launch into Rafah by the end of this week. It will be messy.
How far is Hezbollah willing to go in its stepped up rocket attacks on Israel? I think that they will pull back a bit after today but the die has been cast and the clock is ticking down.
What of the Hostages? I don’t have any real good news. The radical islamic views of Hamas and associated terror groups are that these hostages are not human and they will have no qualm about killing them off. Their usefulness as a shield is coming to an end, so one last spiteful act by Hamas against Israel. I hope and pray more can be rescued ore even exchanged, but that window is quickly closing.
Iran –
The Iranian Gas Management Center is now reporting that the large explosion and resulting fire which occurred earlier tonight on natural gas Line 65 between the cities of Borujen and Shahrekord in Central Iran, was caused by an “act of terrorist sabotage” and not a technical malfunction like was initially believed; the Attack is claimed to have targeted several different gas lines across the country resulting in at least 2 other explosions.
OBSERVATION - Lots of potential suspects, not necessarily an Israeli operation, though Iran will likely blame them for it.
****
Iran’s IRGC says it has fired Emad and Qadr ballistic missiles with “enhanced explosive warheads” to destroy a “simulated version” of Israel’s Palmachim airbase “where Israel’s F-35 fighter jets are located,” a video aired by the state TV shows.
Iran also announced the successful firing of ballistic missiles launched from a container ship. These missiles were stored in the containers on the ship and then were opened up and the missile erected for launch.
OBSERVATION - Concerns over Iranian container missiles have been out there for a considerable number of years now. This is one of the more recent successful launches of the system.
Iranian demonstrations are designed as a propaganda deterrence against any attack by the US or Israel.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Narco-Terrorist Alert.
Since Ecuador’s president declared war on gangs last month, soldiers with assault rifles have flooded the streets of Guayaquil, a sprawling Pacific Coast city that has been an epicenter of the nation’s years long descent into violence.
They pull men from buses and cars looking for drugs, weapons and gang tattoos, and patrol roads enforcing a nighttime curfew. The city is on edge, its men and teenage boys potential targets for troops and police officers who have been ordered to take down powerful gangs that have joined forces with international cartels to make Ecuador a hub of the global drug trade.
Yet when people see soldiers pass, many clap or give them a thumbs-up. “We applaud the iron fist, we celebrate it,” said Guayaquil’s mayor, Aquiles Álvarez. “It has helped bring peace.”
In early January, Guayaquil was hit by a wave of violence that could prove to be a turning point in the country’s long-running security crisis: Gangs attacked the city after the authorities moved to take charge of Ecuador’s prisons, which gangs largely controlled. (NYT).
OBSERVATION - Ecuador is going down a similar path the El Salvador has - unconditional lock up of criminals - as the only available way to shut down the massive crime that has taken over the country. Human ‘rights’ advocates are bemoaning the alleged violations against these criminals while refusing to acknowledge the heavy price paid by law abiding citizenry - and the violation of their rights by the drug cartels.
However, the locals have been very supportive of the effort, now being able to venture out without fear of criminal activity.
America is soon to face a similar choice against the massive development of gang crime spinning off of the massive influx of illegals.