Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab says that humankind is transitioning into “The Intelligent Age” powered by technologies coming from the fourth industrial revolution at the World Governments Summit.
Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, UAE, on Monday, Schwab said that the fourth industrial revolution – which will lead to the fusion of our physical, biological, and digital identities – is powering a global transition of humankind into a new era called The Intelligent Age in which “humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities.”
“Now, we are not speaking just about the fourth industrial revolution; we are speaking about the transition of humankind into a new era, which is not just characterized by technological change – a new era where humankind will enjoy many more opportunities and possibilities,” said Schwab in his speech entitled “Civilizations of Tomorrow: Built to Fail or Rise?”
“It’s a transition. We first had the transition about a hundred years ago from the agricultural society to the industrial society, but today we speak about transitioning into what I would call ‘the intelligent age,’” he added.
According to Schwab, the WEF’s plans for the “new world” involve a “fusion between our physical, our digital, and our biological dimensions.”
OBSERVATION - His talk covered portions of his trans humanism goals - a merger of man and machines. In doing so he spews the continual lie that socialism will allow us to ‘enjoy’ more and more things. I guess him, like others, believe socialism wasn’t properly practiced before.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
See ‘POLITICAL FRONT” regarding likely CIA plot to spy on Trump and his associates.
Such an action if verified, would essentially represent the Deep State owned CIA declaring war on the American people and ripping the concept of the constitution to shreds.
****
Deadly alliance brewing between MS-13 and bloodthirsty Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang behind NYC cellphone robberies, FBI fears.
They extort Venezuelans by demanding that they pay bribes in exchange for protection and even to cross the border from Venezuela into Colombia and from Mexico into the US, he said.
Tren de Aragua has taken advantage of an explosion in Venezuelan migration to come across the southern border. There were more than 340,000 “encounters” with migrants from the country at the border last year, making them second only to Mexicans.
Another expert warned that there is also a risk of turf wars between gangs.
“They are already coming over as hardened criminals,” said Robert Almonte, a security consultant and former US marshal in El Paso.
OBSERVATION - Cross over from illegal immigration. I’ve noted several times now the growth of Venezuelan gangs here in the US and in particular NYC. This is given that Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent the criminals north to America. A merger with MS-13 is a logical progression. MS-13 has been operating in the Northeast US for a considerable number of years and already has the criminal infrastructure these Venezuelan gangsters can fit right in to.
In the event things go sideways in the US, gangs like this will take advantage of the chaos to establish a much larger rule over metropolitan areas. This will usher in significant turf wars between gangs as well as terrorizing residents thru protection ‘fees’, and other crime.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The path to getting inflation down has not been steady. On Tuesday, another bump got in the way.
Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.1 percent in January compared with the year before. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4 percent annual rate notched in December, and leagues below the post-covid peak of 9.1 percent.
But the report came in hotter than analysts expected, narrowly dashing hopes that the annual inflation figure would dip below 3 percent for the first time since early 2021. And as the Federal Reserve fights to wrestle inflation all the way down to a more normal 2 percent, central bankers know success is still just out of reach, potentially slowing the Fed’s march toward the first interest rate cut in years. (WAPO)
inflation soaring in essential areas:
Car Insurance Inflation: 20.6%
Transportation Inflation: 9.5%
Hospital Services Inflation: 6.7%
Car Repair Inflation: 6.5%
Homeowner Inflation: 6.2%
Rent Inflation: 6.1%
Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.1%
OBSERVATION - The numbers that really hit the pocket book continue to rise back up. Layoffs, going deeper in debt, etc all speak against biden’s claim that he has restored us to a roaring economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Carriers USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) continue to operate in the Philippine Sea .
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
CIA and foreign intelligence agencies in a new report, illegally targeted 26 Trump associates before 2016 Russia collusion claims. FBI started spying on the Trump campaign after foreign governments “by chance” discovered evidence that his advisors were colluding with the Russians, the government says. But now, multiple credible sources tell us that the CIA asked foreign allies to spy on 26 Trump associates.
OBSERVATION - Details of this CIA lead coup against Trump are still coming out. If these reports are true, we have a serious problem at hand with a powerful, rogue agency that has been weaponized against democrat opposition and even against a duly elected president.
***
By a one vote margin, House voted to impeach Mayorkas!
OBSERVATION - A symbolic event as the Senate will not vote to throw his sorry arse out of the position. In fact, he may grow even more belligerent toward defending the border.
***
Democrat Tom Suozzi is projected to win New York’s Third Congressional District election. At publishing time, Suozzi leads Mazi Pilp, 54.2% to 45.8% with 85% reporting.
This is for former republican congressman George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District
Mazi Pilp was a democrat running as a republican.
***
House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-KY) and Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland requesting all documents and transcripts from Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation of President Biden related to Ukraine and China.
OBSERVATION - While the basis for the request is the effort to build the case to impeach biden, it has the potential for exposing biden’s mental issues.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
China –
China’s Consul General in Manila Zhang Zhen described the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling on the South China Sea as “illegal, null, and void,” adding that China “has never and will never accept it” during a Chinese New Year celebration in the Philippines.
OBSERVATION - Indicative of China’s more aggressive policy to seize key islands in the region under false pretenses. Refusal to follow international law by China is guaranteed to create more tensions and potential military conflict in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
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Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, speaking at Russian parliament says Russia is ready for talks in Ukraine, only if current occupation of lands in Ukraine accepted
Logistics –
A heavy fire broke out at Gazpromneft’s refinery in south-east Moscow. Normally, it supplies Moscow with 40% of the gasoline and 50% of the diesel the city needs, and also supplies the airports with most of the jet fuel they consume. No word as to the cause, and no reported drone activity
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Coming up on the anniversary of the war - Feb 24, 2022, Russian losses have been staggering. Expected to reach the 400K by the third anniversary of the invasion next week. Over twice the number initially involved in the invasion have been ‘eliminated.’
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian naval drones just sank the 112 meter long Russian Ropucha-class landing ship Caesar Kunikov (bottom left on this graphic) off the coast of Crimea. The Cesar Kunikov already escaped narrowly destruction when it was damaged in March 2022 in Berdyansk by a Tochka-U missile.
Observers in Crimea noted a second explosion, including a strong shockwave, similar to when ammunition exploded. It is highly probable the Kunikov was loaded with ammunition bound for the front when the attack occurred.
As part of the enemy’s Black Sea Fleet , there are still 5 landing ships available: “Azov”, “Korolev”, “Yamal”, “Orsk”, “Nikolay Filchenkov”.
The ship was named after major Cesar Kunikov - who died on Valentine’s Day 1943. Coincidence?
Avdiivka -
Fierce fighting continues around the city. Reports indicate that a Russian push from the NE has physically cut the town off from its primary supply line. Russian forces pushed between the northern end of the town and the coke plant to its northwest to cut off the road. Ukraine reinforcements are reportedly pushing in on the northwestern flank of this Russia assault. Ukraine has also switched to a secondary supply route. One of the biggest reports coming out is that Ukrainian forces are saying that they are running desperately short of ammunition.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine. With recent military leadership changes and low stocks of ammo, hard decisions will need to be made. Avdiivka has been a successful meat grinder for Ukraine with Russian losses running something like 10x the losses for Ukraine. But even at those ratios, you still need bullets and artillery to sustain the defense.
The Black Sea fleet suffered another major loss with the “Cesar Kunikov”. The large amphibious assault vessel was part of Russian efforts to provide redundancy in getting war supplies to Crimea and southern front areas. The risk of losing the Kersch Bridge looms high in the thoughts of Russian high command.
Russia has lost a number of amphibious ships over the past two years. Initially, they were considered a threat to the Odessa region, allowing Russia to leapfrog Ukraine obstacles and press forward to link up with Russian forces in Transnistria - forming the ‘land bridge’. However, massive failure in the assault against Kyiv and the north, pulled Russian marine forces out of the boats and into critical sectors. Another factor was the quick adaptation of the Neptune anti -ship defenses and other systems that would make an amphibious assault a very likely bloody loss for Russia.
The attack also show cases the advancement of Ukrainian boat drones - faster, less detectable and more deadly. This threat has basically kept Russia missile boats as far away as possible from the Crimea region - reducing the numbers of missiles available to assault Ukrainian infrastructure.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Attempts at reaching a deal for the release of the remaining hostages continue
- Hezbollah launches one of the largest rocket attack since the start of the war. Israel is retaliating with massive numbers of airstrikes.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby -
“The Israeli army is taking significant steps in order to lower the number of civilian casualties in Gaza, steps that I am not sure even the US army would have taken.”
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a direct appeal to Hamas, urging the group to release the hostages and swiftly reach a ceasefire agreement to prevent further displacement and hardship for the Palestinian people in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Tens of thousands of Gazans are moving north from Rafah to get away from the planned Israeli offensive.
IDF continues to make preparations to move into Rafah to engage the remnants of Hamas and seek out more hostages to rescue.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah fired off at least three large barrages of rockets into N Israel overnight. At least one barrage was targeted against Safed, killing 1 and wounding 9 - initial reports.
The head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Tuesday that his faction’s cross-border shelling into Israel would only end when Israel’s “aggression” on the Gaza Strip stops.
The Israeli Air Force has begun an extensive wave of strikes in Lebanon in response to the rocket fire earlier.
IAF bombed the Iqlim al-Tuffah area, deep in southern Lebanon. IAF also carried out a series of air strikes targeting the towns of Adchit in the Nabatieh Bassalia district in Iqlim al-Tuffah, and towns of al-Sawwanah and al-Shehabiya.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Shin Bet and IDF undercover forces have arrested Omar Fayed, one of the heads of the military wing of the terrorist organization Hamas in West Bank’s Jenin
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed militias targeted the Al-Omar military base eastern Syria overnight.
***
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that since the October 7th massacre by Hamas in Southern Israel, attacks by Iranian-backed groups against U.S. Forces in Eastern Syria and Iraq have caused at least 186 American casualties with 130 of those labeled as Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs).
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Combat between Israel and Hezbollah took a big turn in escalation overnight. At least three rocket barrages into N Israel and retaliatory airstrikes by the IAF through out S Lebanon. The rocket barrages are likely in response to recent Israeli targeted hits on Hezbollah leaders in S Lebanon. Israeli responses give them more opportunity to further degrade key Hezbollah facilities prior to the eventual real ground conflict kicking off. This is not a matter of “if” but now “when”.
IDF facilitated evacuations out of Rafah continue and soon the attack on Hamas’ final stronghold will begin in earnest. Tracking international reaction to the IDF rescue of two hostages - one sees an incredible spin. How dare Israel move to rescue hostages being held in Rafah, didn’t we tell them not to go into the city? - and other similar drivel.
Bottom line is that the IDF will likely launch into Rafah by the end of this week. It will be messy.
How far is Hezbollah willing to go in its stepped up rocket attacks on Israel? I think that they will pull back a bit after today but the die has been cast and the clock is ticking down.
What of the Hostages? I don’t have any real good news. The radical islamic views of Hamas and associated terror groups are that these hostages are not human and they will have no qualm about killing them off. Their usefulness as a shield is coming to an end, so one last spiteful act by Hamas against Israel. I hope and pray more can be rescued ore even exchanged, but that window is quickly closing.
Iran –
The Iranian Gas Management Center is now reporting that the large explosion and resulting fire which occurred earlier tonight on natural gas Line 65 between the cities of Borujen and Shahrekord in Central Iran, was caused by an “act of terrorist sabotage” and not a technical malfunction like was initially believed; the Attack is claimed to have targeted several different gas lines across the country resulting in at least 2 other explosions.
OBSERVATION - Lots of potential suspects, not necessarily an Israeli operation, though Iran will likely blame them for it.
****
Iran’s IRGC says it has fired Emad and Qadr ballistic missiles with “enhanced explosive warheads” to destroy a “simulated version” of Israel’s Palmachim airbase “where Israel’s F-35 fighter jets are located,” a video aired by the state TV shows.
Iran also announced the successful firing of ballistic missiles launched from a container ship. These missiles were stored in the containers on the ship and then were opened up and the missile erected for launch.
OBSERVATION - Concerns over Iranian container missiles have been out there for a considerable number of years now. This is one of the more recent successful launches of the system.
Iranian demonstrations are designed as a propaganda deterrence against any attack by the US or Israel.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Narco-Terrorist Alert.
Since Ecuador’s president declared war on gangs last month, soldiers with assault rifles have flooded the streets of Guayaquil, a sprawling Pacific Coast city that has been an epicenter of the nation’s years long descent into violence.
They pull men from buses and cars looking for drugs, weapons and gang tattoos, and patrol roads enforcing a nighttime curfew. The city is on edge, its men and teenage boys potential targets for troops and police officers who have been ordered to take down powerful gangs that have joined forces with international cartels to make Ecuador a hub of the global drug trade.
Yet when people see soldiers pass, many clap or give them a thumbs-up. “We applaud the iron fist, we celebrate it,” said Guayaquil’s mayor, Aquiles Álvarez. “It has helped bring peace.”
In early January, Guayaquil was hit by a wave of violence that could prove to be a turning point in the country’s long-running security crisis: Gangs attacked the city after the authorities moved to take charge of Ecuador’s prisons, which gangs largely controlled. (NYT).
OBSERVATION - Ecuador is going down a similar path the El Salvador has - unconditional lock up of criminals - as the only available way to shut down the massive crime that has taken over the country. Human ‘rights’ advocates are bemoaning the alleged violations against these criminals while refusing to acknowledge the heavy price paid by law abiding citizenry - and the violation of their rights by the drug cartels.
However, the locals have been very supportive of the effort, now being able to venture out without fear of criminal activity.
America is soon to face a similar choice against the massive development of gang crime spinning off of the massive influx of illegals.
Communism/Socialism gives almost unlimited power to the Socialist 'elite' and NEVER fulfills it's BS to 'the workers'.
Corrupt 'elties' push this crap even after every failure. Why? Because they know if they're one of 'the elites' in that hellhole system they'll have the power of 'God on Earth'. Control over all - it's evil.
Workers have gotten screwed in every commie 'experiment' since the Communist Manifesto was published. Klaus Schwab knows this and he's still pushing the nightmare? That's telling.
It's a start. Keep the pressure up, Israel.
For the everyday citizen in Ukraine there's probably not a dime's worth of difference living under Russian rule or under the corrupt Zelenskyy... Zelenskyy's fighting for the right to be corrupt and Russia's fighting for past glory and the right to stop NATO incursion. " The people" are trapped in the middle. Maybe 'the people' should vote on this... wouldn't that be a novel solution?
I made mentions in other comments yesterday about the pillars of civilization falling apart and generally inferring that a major global collapse is coming fast. I expand more - in that much can be related to the fall of the Roman empire and current events. This fall resulted in much of Europe falling backwards culturally and coming under brutal control of various barbarian cultures. Lost was the level of civilization that wouldn’t be regained for centuries.
The things I’m seeing today resemble more a dystopian science fiction novel than what I could ever have imagined really happening. And since 2020, the rollercoaster ride has only gotten worse - with no safeguards. I find my self wondering (along with many others now), will we even have an election this year. Red lights are becoming more numerous on the panel and the prospect to dial things back is becoming more remote.
Sorry for the gloom and doom, but sometimes our normalcy bias needs to be shaken up for us to lift up our heads and come to grips with the world around us so we can make plans to mitigate the coming chaos as much as possible.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
George Soros is poised to take a massive stake in the nation’s second-largest radio company, which owns more than 220 stations nationwide, according to court filings and sources close to the situation.
The left-leaning billionaire’s Soros Fund Management has bought up $400 million of debt in Audacy — the No. 2 US radio broadcaster behind iHeartMedia with stations including New York’s WFAN and 1010 WINS, as well as Los Angeles-based KROQ, according to bankruptcy filings.
One insider close to the situation, noting that he was a Republican, said he believed it was possible Soros was buying the stake to exert influence on public opinion in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
https://nypost.com/2024/02/14/business/george-soros-poised-to-control-audacy/
OBSERVATION - A figure almost as large by himself as the WEF, soros knows how the process works. Already, most media outlets are owned by just a handful of leftist power brokers. I’ve seen numerous video clips of widely separated TV station news reports parroting the exact same words on an issue time and again. News papers all start to read alike. Soros is counting on the sheeple not being discerning enough and swallowing the propaganda hook, line and sinker.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Cross reference this with Illegal Immigration -
New York State National Guard troops are being told to check all migrants arriving in the Big Apple for distinctive tattoos linking them to the vicious Venezuelan “Tren de Aragua” street gang, The Post has learned.
The decree comes as the NYPD this week issued a “Situational Awareness Alert” warning that the brutal gang is increasingly making its presence known in the five boroughs — with members claiming asylum at the US border and flocking to New York to join other gangbangers.
“It’s to a point that they had to post policies on use of force like if we were in a combat zone,” one National Guard source said Wednesday.
“Tren de Aragua” — Spanish for Aragua Train, a shout-out to the gang’s origins as a railroad labor union in Aragua, Venezuela — is growing in numbers in the Big Apple and has been linked by law enforcement to a recent spree of cellphone robberies, The Post revealed this week.
The brutal gang is now firmly on the NYPD’s radar, with the new bulletin warning: “Tren de Aragua’s newly established presence in New York City may incite further gang-related violence — including stabbings, assaults and robberies — raising public safety concerns.”
OBSERVATION - While focus has been recently on this Venezuelan gang and its growing relationship with MS-13, I want to reemphasize the the role these foreign gangs are likely to play in a scenario where a hotter CW2 scenario blossoms out. We’ve already seen how crime has exploded in these blue metro cities - driven in part by drastically undermanned police forces and liberal prosecutors - now consolidating under larger gangs that have become multinational. Initial fighting will be the bloodiest between these international gangs and those indigenous to metro areas (call them ‘old school’ if you could). They will fight for initial control of city resources such as food, and fuel as a means to extort money from the trapped civilians.
This will put the ‘left’s’ so called revolutionaries at a disadvantage of having to protect against these gangs while challenging the more rural whites.
IN RELATED - These illegals and the crime organizations they are moving into the US with, are reportedly expanding operations into smaller towns with a degree of technological skill that is very concerning. In Ohio, these gangs are using WiFi jamming technology to blind WiFi linked security systems in order to hit homes and businesses of the wealth in these more rural towns.
***
Buried in all the other craziness, Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, argued that it’s not in the American people’s national security interest to require a warrant for surveillance. He’s rejecting a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) amendment that mandates a warrant for spying on Americans. He said it is not in the interest of the American people not to be spied on without a court warrant.
OBSERVATION - Talk about gaslighting.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
More than 20 people were shot during the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory parade. As of Wednesday afternoon, one death had been confirmed. It was also confirmed that nine of the patients being treated for gun wounds are minors.
Police have yet to release the identities of the victims or the names of the alleged shooter(s). However, reporting on social media indicate that the three shooters were black males - probably making their reporting less likely to come out.
Police were still unsure whether the Super Bowl victory celebration was targeted for attack, or whether the violence was incidental to the event and spilled over into it.
OBSERVATION - Listed under terrorism for now until more details come out. Given the ethnicity of those involved, this could range from a drug deal gone bad, gang squabble to an outright black on white racist (terror) attack taking advantage of those concentrated in attendance. Also, given the ethnicity of the shooters, we will never really know if the last motive is true or not. The shooting has already prompted more calls for gun control, but I’ll be the shooters have a mile long rap sheet and should have been behind bars and not out on the streets.
Economy-
A key measure of home-purchase applications slumped last week amid a sharp increase in mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) index of mortgage applications fell 2.3% for the week ended Feb. 9, compared with the previous week, according to new data published Wednesday.
The data also showed that the average rate on the popular 30-year loan rose to 6.87%. While that is down from a peak of 8% in October, it marks the highest level for interest rates since December 2023.
“Application activity was weaker last week, as mortgage rates moved higher across the board,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist.
OBSERVATION - I’ve repeatedly pointed to the housing market as a major touchstone sector to evaluate the health of the country’s economy. It continues to reflect the ills of the economy and it is hard to see just what will turn it around for Americans. Few can afford the current home prices and even fewer the crazy expensive mortgages.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Planting this story here for now - if it grows legs, will likely shift discussions into a new category.
The chairman of the House intelligence committee, Rep. Mike Turner, issued an unusual cryptic statement on Wednesday saying the committee had made available to all members of Congress information about an unspecified “serious national security threat.”
But sources close to ABC News report that the threat relates to Russia’s plans to place a nuclear weapon in space. According to ABC: “This is not to drop a nuclear weapon onto Earth but rather to possibly use against satellites.” Rumors also indicate that Russia is still 2-3 years out from actually deploying this system.
One possible candidate for this threat may be associated with the
February 9th launch the Cosmos-2575 Mission, using a Soyuz-2 Rocket carrying an “Unknown Payload into Space for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
This act would be a gross violation of international treaty. The Outer Space Treaty, formally the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, is a multilateral treaty that forms the basis of international space law. Negotiated and drafted under the auspices of the United Nations, it was opened for signature in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union on 27 January 1967, entering into force on 10 October 1967. As of August 2023, 114 countries are parties to the treaty—including all major spacefaring nations—and another 22 are signatories.
One of the key provisions of the Outer Space Treaty include prohibiting nuclear weapons in space. It does not prohibit placement of conventional weapons in orbit.
While the current speculation focuses on placement of nuclear anti-satellite weapons, the usefulness of such a weapon is questionable given the proliferation and capabilities of earth launched anti satellite weapons.
The greater concern would be the placement of Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) weaponry. FOBS are space-based nuclear bombs (actual warheads) that can be released at ANY time, orbit the earth several times under their own power for months or years (or just once), then come down anywhere on the planet with ZERO advance warning to the intended target.
Such weaponry would generate a massive nuclear arms race in space to ensure a mutually assured destruction scenario as the defense against such weapons is virtually zero as noted above.
OBSERVATION - Over the past 5-10 years, Russia has detached itself from many nuclear related treaties that had their origins in the Reagan administration. More recently Russia has basically stated that it’ll do what it wants in the way of updating its nuclear arsenal - and has aggressively developed new ICBMs and warheads. Moscow has even gone as far as saying that it will resume actual nuclear testing - if and when it wants to. Thus blowing off the Outer Space Treaty would not be an outlier, but one of a continuation of actions by Russia to nullify or ignore existing treaties/agreement’s. So the probability if high that Russia has or is planning to place such a weapon system into orbit.
Interesting that Trump set up a separate military command to address such threats.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Three separate prosecutors reportedly met with White House aides before indicting former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s political opponent.
The reported meetings suggest a coordinated attack against Biden’s 2024 rival. If coordination occurred, it lends credence to Trump’s belief that the indictments are election interference.
The timing of the indictments are peculiar. After Trump announced a reelection bid against Biden, four indictments hit Trump in four separate jurisdictions, each following revelations about the Biden family business.
In three cases, prosecutors reportedly met with the Biden administration before indicting Trump:
Alvin Bragg: New York – “Stormy Daniels” Case (state)
Jack Smith: Miami – “Documents” Case (federal)
Fani Willis: Fulton County, Georgia (state)
OBSERVATION - There should be no doubt that this was a WH orchestrated campaign to shut down Trump. Remember, those in power now were behind the now demonstrably bogus and illegal “Russia Russia Russia” accusations of Trump’s first term.
***
Fallout and speculation continue after disclosures that the Russia collusion hoax was started and orchestrated by the Obama CIA. Growing evidence points to the suspected possession of the declassified binder on CIA involvement in Crossfire Hurricane - the operational name given for the smear campaign.. Growing speculation that Mar-a-Lago was raided because of information that former President Donald Trump may have had on Crossfire Hurricane and in particular, this binder.
This binder theory has been floating around for well over a year, but the documentation that 0bama unleashed the CIA to foment the Russian Collusion scam has only recently appeared - and in limited form.
Words escape me on the level of corruption from the 0bama administration and the CIA, FBI and NSA on this whole scandal.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Immigration and Customs Enforcement is discussing releasing nearly half of detained migrants to make up for a budget shortfall.
Four ICE and Department of Homeland Security officials told the Washington Post that the agency is currently experiencing its greatest budget shortfall in recent memory, at $700 million. To compensate, ICE officials are circulating an internal memorandum that proposes cutting detention beds from 38,000 to just 22,000.
The move was interpreted by some conservative figures as a hostile move from the Biden administration, retaliating for House Republicans refusing to pass an aid bill that allocated dozens of billions to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, alongside $7.6 billion for ICE. It was also interpreted as retaliation against the House’s impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
“In response to Mayorkas impeachment, Biden regime payback includes threat to release even more illegal aliens,” Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
OBSERVATION - This is blackmail, pure and simple. In congressional testimony, Mayorkas admitted that nearly 85% of the caught illegals are being dumped on US streets as it is. It is demonstrably more efficient and cost effect to simply close the border and turn these illegals back.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
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NUCLEAR THREATS –
See “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above regarding possible Russian deployment of nuclear weapons into orbit.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Some analysts are indicating that Russia has gotten its conscription and recruiting problems under control and can enlist at rates about equal to the ongoing losses in Ukraine. Some suggest that Russia can sustain such levels for a couple years before the body pool started to be significantly drained.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 12 Kh-101 missiles, 2 of 2 Kaliber cruise missiles, 1 of 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 2 of 4 Kh-59 missiles, also Russia launched 2 S-300 missiles from Belgorod region.
Multiple hits in western Ukraine, Kharkiv and Kyiv regions.
Avdiivka -
Greater and greater concerns over the defense of Avdiivka are coming from Ukrainian sources. Again, major emphasis on the lack of ammo and artillery rounds. For over a year, Ukraine has made this battle field a death zone for Russian forces because they could place timely artillery on Russian target. With out it, the Russian ‘meat’ attacks - essentially human waves - backed up by Russian artillery no longer fearing Ukraine counter battery fire - is carving up key portions of the Ukraine defensive lines.
The drive by Russian forces to isolate Avdiivka by cutting southwest between the town and the coke refinery is holding and now threatening Ukraines’ secondary supply route into the town. It is reaching a point where Ukraine must make a critical decision - commit enough reserves to eliminate the Russian push and reestablish supply lines or begin a staged withdrawal from the city.
Russian Territory –
Russian Telegram channels report a fire at an oil refinery in Kursk region near Polevaya village. According to them, a 100 tonnes reservoir is burning. Kursk governor said it was a drone attack.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine. See comments above.
Ukraine also continues to hit Russian oil refineries - exploiting gaps in ADA coverage and hitting key facilities resulting in significant losses in fuel for not only the civilian but military use.
Belarus -
Belarus declared counter-terrorism operation in Lelchitsky district of Homiel region on the border of Ukraine . State govt also announced that this was a routine exercise.
NOTE - Homiel was one of the major staging areas Russia used in its invasion of N Ukraine.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s army-backed Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have announced an agreement to form a coalition government, despite the currently jailed ex-PM Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PIT) emerging as clearly the single most popular ‘winner’ from the Feb.8 elections. No party singularly won an outright majority of seats in parliament, however.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s PPP confirmed that it would help Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League elect a prime minister. Meetings to form an alliance began Tuesday night, and by Wednesday morning it was widely being reported that former PM Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz, has been nominated.
Crucially, these are the very two parties who were in the coalition that ousted then PM Imran Khan from power in 2022, after which he was slapped with literally over 100 charges of corruption. Khan’s supporters have said we are witnessing a process whereby the military and its political allies are ‘stealing’ an election, after Khan’s PIT was already barred from the election, with its candidates forced to run as independents.
OBSERVATION - If this pans out, Pakistan is on the transjectory for continued civil disruption to the edge of a low grade civil war. Lay on top of this, grown islamic terrorism in more outlying regions also threatening the govt and you have a scary scenario where nuclear weapons could get into the wrong hands.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Increasing tensions along the Israeli/Lebanese border.
- Facing proof of UNRWA collusion with Hamas and associated loss of funding, UNRWA officials are pleading for more money.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
UNRWA Commissioner-General - “If there are no new contributions, our operations will face a major funding shortage in April.”
“Dismantling the agency will be a disappointment to the Palestinians from the international community and will affect their lives.”
***
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Israel has proposed setting up tent compounds for Palestinian evacuees currently sheltering in Rafah, as part of a developing plan funded by the United States and Arab countries, in preparation for an IDF ground operation.
According to a report in the Lebanese news site Al-Akhbar, the establishment of the tent cities is a coordination between Israel, the United States, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The funding and construction of the tent cities largely being the responsibility of the US and its Arab partners. The tent cities would also include medical field clinics.
The Al-Akhbar report said the communities will be run by “mukhtars,” government officials appointed by authorities, and who are not affiliated with Hamas.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-palestinian-refugees/2024/02/14/id/1153538/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
The Israeli army says that its special forces are carrying out an operation inside Nasser Hospital in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces says it has “credible intelligence”, including from released hostages, that Hamas held hostages at the hospital in southern Gaza. Militants appear to be operating from within the hospital too.
IDF continues in its preparation of the battlefield for entering Rafah. Current pause being to let civilians evacuate the town.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
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The Prime Minister of Lebanon asks the Foreign Ministry to submit a new complaint against Israel in the Security Council.
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Senior Hezbollah official and member of parliament Hassan Fadlallah said on Thursday that Israel would face reprisal after two sets of strikes on southern Lebanon the previous day killed 10 civilians, half of them children.
“The enemy (Israel) will pay the price for these crimes,” Fadlallah told Reuters when asked about the powerful Iran-backed armed group’s reaction to the deadliest day for civilians in Lebanon since hostilities began along its southern border.
The Israeli strikes on Wednesday came after shelling of a military base in northern Israel killed one soldier and waves of rocket attacks on N Israeli towns. Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for that attack.
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During an assessment in northern Israel, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says the IDF is preparing for war in the north, amid Hezbollah’s daily attacks from Lebanon.
“We are not finishing this without returning the residents to Metula and all the communities in the north, with a very high level of security,” Halevi says, referring to some 80,000 Israelis displaced by Hezbollah’s attacks.
“We are now focused on being ready for war in the north. If it does not end in war, it will not end with any compromise to the achievements,” he says.
“Hezbollah is not here on the fence, we will push back all its capabilities, it will be much quieter here, there will be much more stability here and then residents can return,” Halevi continues. “Will this happen tomorrow? Probably not. It will take some time.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-18/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The President of Brazil from Cairo - “Israel’s behavior in Gaza has no explanation, as it kills women and children under the pretext of fighting Hamas”
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The United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries are restricting the US’s use of military facilities in their territory to launch airstrikes against the Iranian axis, people familiar with the issue told Politico on Wednesday.
The restrictions come as Arab countries attempt to balance the desire to help the US deter Iran and its proxies, while also assuaging their citizens’ anger toward Israel.
Several Iranian proxies have threatened to attack Arab states that the US uses to launch strikes from.
In October, just a few weeks after the Israel-Hamas war began, Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq, an Iran-backed militia believed to be linked to the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah militia, threatened to target bases where American forces are housed in Kuwait and the UAE.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
As Israel build up for its enterence in to Rafah, so too does warnings from international sources. However, much of the collusion of the UNRWA with hamas combined with the conditions the rescued hostages were held under have blunted some of the warnings.
Analysts are suggesting that Israel will hold off its assault for a couple weeks, to give time for the evacuation and associated erection of a tent city to house the gazans.
Just dawned on me that in regards to the rocket attacks coming from Lebanon, the shift of the source of the attacks has occurred. Initial attacks were by hamas affiliated groups launching poor quality rockets. Now essentially all rockets being fired are from Hezbollah - an act that has definitely pulled them into a spiral of escalation with Israel. As Ive noted before, this has also granted israel ample justification to attack key command and logistical facilities Hezbollah will rely on during the eventual all out war with Israel.