CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
NYPD arrested a number of anti-Israel protesters in Brooklyn, New York City after their protest turned violent. Still looking to see if any other Saturday protest did the same. More pro-hamas protests are expected across the country today.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
(H/T Oorang) At the recent National Sheriff’s Association Conference in Washington, D.C., Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones expressed grave concerns regarding the safety of the American electoral process and broader national security threats.
Based on briefings with FBI Director Christopher Wray, Sheriff Jones has taken the unprecedented step of offering disaster preparedness training to civilians in the county.
The Gateway Pundit reported earlier that Sheriff Richard Jones of Butler County, Ohio, is sounding the alarm over national security threats posed by illegal immigrants and potential terrorist activities within the country.
“They’re here not to be our friends. Some of them are coming because they’re wanting to come here to the best country in the world. The way we see, some are coming here to do harm to us. And we were told by the FBI director, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” Jones warned.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/must-watch-butler-county-sheriff-richard-jones-warns/
OBSERVATION - It has been pretty clear for some time now that terror cells from the likes of China and Iran have infiltrated and embedded themselves into the US. So i consider that there is a significant degree of factualness to what the FBI may have briefed them on. biden’s dumpster fire of existence is growing by leaps and bounds and this invites terrorists to become emboldened to move forward with their plans.
OTOH, I’m concerned that there may well be a degree of fear mongering by the FBI, whose major efforts to counter terror has been going after religious groups, grandmas and ‘white terrorists’. So I am struggling with accepting the FBI’s warning at face value - do they have an anterior motive?
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Little new has come out concerning the passenger on board a Lufthansa flight from Thailand to Germany that died Thursday, as blood gushed out of his mouth and nose. Some apparently informed individuals on the webs indicate that the death is being diagnosed as being due to massive bleeding from an esophageal bleed (Esophageal varices), which are horrendous and often fatal, even in the best of circumstances. It’s often seen in those with chronic alcohol intake.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/esophageal-varices/symptoms-causes/syc-20351538
OBSERVATION - If this turns out to be Esophageal varices, I don’t expect to see much more about this. OTOH, if Ebola or the like, then the news should be bubbling.
***
A study conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Food and Drug Administration has shown that the risk of myocarditis following mRNA COVID vaccination is around 133x greater than the background risk in the population.
This means COVID-19 vaccination increases the risk of suffering myocarditis, an autoimmune disease causing inflammation of the heart, by 13,200%.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346
OBSERVATION - this from a publication from Jan 2022. They knew that this jab was deadly, but kept the information out of public view until recently.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Biden and the DNC have opened a federal investigation into RFK Jr. in an attempt to remove him from the ballot.
Initial numbers following the biden classified documents scandal and the declared mental illness that the prosecutor used to defer prosecution - followed by biden’s disastrous presser that evening has shown Trump to have made a big jump in public opinion over biden. These are just initial numbers and no major polls yet.
Remember, polls also serve the purpose of shaping public opinion and if the major polls in the next days reflect a major Trump spike - it could be in order to apply more leverage for biden to step down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Spin of tornadic measure continues around Hue’s biden report and questions over his mental faculties. Dems trying hard to deflect demands for a mental health evaluation.
More commentary going on about how ‘black’ biden’s eyes were during that presser. This is indicative of enlarged pupils. Many suspect that this is evidence of his deteriorating mental state and the drugs given to keep him going. Also note that he is commonly seen wearing dark sun glasses in and out doors - again suggesting pupil dilation.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Intercepts in the AZ region are pushing new high levels. Waiting to see what the latest BP reports to confirm.
NGOs are being uncovered having illegal ‘camps’ in national forest areas in an effort to hide them. Other facilities being used by NGOS to house illegals are refusing congressional oversight visits by the NGOs that operate them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Busy night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 40 of 45 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Kherson and Dnipro city areas among the target areas.
Ukraine kept Russian ADA active in occupied Mariupol.
Bakhmut -
Back in the news as Russia renews attacks in the area.
Avdiivka -
While Ukraine hold, its supply lines are increasingly coming under attack as Russia presses the flanks of the salient.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
With the exception of Avdiivka, most of the Russian attacks are characterized as being “positional “ battles, one s where local tactically advantageous terrain for defensive operations is fought over.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel moves closer to conducting combat operations in Rafah.
- UNRWA is being shown to be more and more complicit and supportive of Hamas with the reveal of a significant tunnel network beneath its Gaza HQ.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israeli strikes on the Gaza strip during the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others, Hamas’ armed-wing Al Qassam Brigades announced Sunday over the group’s Telegram channel.
Israel revealed late this week that 31 of the 136 remaining hostages have been confirmed dead, leaving 105 remaining to be returned to Israel from Hamas terrorist clutches.
***
British Foreign Secretary: We are deeply concerned about the possibility of a military attack on Rafah, where more than half of Gaza’s population is taking refuge.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
New evidence of the cooperation between UNRWA and the Islamist terror organization Hamas came to light after the IDF discovered a tunnel shaft near a UNRWA school during its operations in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military announced on Saturday.
The tunnel shaft, near the school, led to an underground shelter that served as a valuable asset for Hamas’s military intelligence wing, according to the IDF. The route connected to the tunnel also led to a path beneath UNRWA’s central headquarters in the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, IDF soldiers discovered electric infrastructure inside the tunnels that were connected to the UNRWA headquarters building, indicating that UNRWA assets were supplying Hamas with electricity.
UNRWA Commissioner-General - “The agency’s employees have left the main headquarters in Gaza City since October 12, and we do not know what is underneath”
***
Egypt is threatening to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Israeli troops are sent into the densely populated Gaza border town of Rafah, and says fighting there could force the closure of the territory’s main aid supply route, two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat said Sunday.
The threat to suspend the Camp David Accords, a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly a half-century, came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said sending troops into Rafah was necessary to win the four-month-old war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister - “I presented to my Iranian counterpart our vision for finding a sustainable solution that will restore calm to the south within the framework of Resolution 1701”
Israel is reportedly jamming GPS devices in the north to confound Hezbollah missiles.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian Foreign Minister - “We do not want to expand the scope of the war”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
RUMINT - According to several U.S. Defense Officials, preparations are now underway for a total or partial withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq due to continued pressure and escalations by Iranian-backed groups including Kata’ib Hezbollah, while also making it a priority of getting American servicemembers to “Safety” prior to any kind a regional war; the full withdrawal could take up to 90 Days but that depends on its size, scope, and urgency.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Omani Foreign Ministry - “We warn of the dangerous repercussions of its continued aggression against the Gaza Strip and its trend towards storming Rafah.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israel will go into Rafah regardless of what any one else says or demands. They will likely begin a major evacuation of civilians out of the city within the next few days. It is the last largely untouched Hamas stronghold in Gaza.
Intensity is building in Lebanon as well. Iranian rhetoric has cranked up in the last few days suggesting that they will not leave Hezbollah out to dry as they did Hamas.
If the RUMINT is accurate - and many other sources are echoing the same - this would represent a major loss by the US to Iran. It would also permit Iran to focus more on potential direct attacks on Israel. Iran has been working to oust the US forces for about a year now and it will not stop at this level of removal but push to now remove the US from the entire region. Given biden’s foreign policy disasters - such as the Afghanistan pullout - any withdrawal from Iraq/Syria could face the same measure of stupidity on the part of military and political planners.
Finally, the location of a major Hamas HQ directly below the UNRWA HQ for Gaza pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin of the UN’s cooperation with Hamas against Israel. The UNRWA Commissioner-General’s claim that they knew nothing is pretty weak. It is a throughly corrupt organization and must be defunded and shut down.
As we move into a new week, news tends to ebb and flow in some subject areas. It is often difficult to get a full handle on some events/activities as it seems to be like trying to drink from a firehose. This is one of those firehose days.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Australia is moving closer to the implementation of its digital ID program, set to be finalized later this year. An announcement from the Department of Finance revealed that the novel system would empower users to select their preferred digital ID provider for the accessibility of both government and private services. Private entities can apply for accreditation to provide digital ID services under the Trusted Digital Identity Framework (TDIF), which is the government’s recognition framework.
OBSERVATION - Australia has been one of the more compliant nations to the WEF goals - reflected in the draconian lockdowns of the wuhan plandemic. While this new program utilizes other digital ID providers, they all have to conform to the national standard - very easy for later conversion to a singular national ID card. Included in this act is the incorporation of biometric and other personal data into the system.
***
According to Bloomberg, the German economy continues to tank. After the economy shrank in the final quarter of last year, downbeat early surveys for 2024 signal there’s little respite ahead.
Demand from borrowers for investment in the likes of machinery, factories and technology has fallen, creating a risk that domestic growth is impeded in the longer term as companies focus on getting through the current struggle. And now there’s growing concern about some lenders’ exposure to the shaky US corporate real estate market. -Bloomberg
Both its government and the European Commission projecting a 0.4% contraction in its economy for 2024 due to high inflation, elevated energy prices and sluggish international trade.
OBSERVATION - Climate change policies are driving the collapse of the German economic machine. Article goes into other sectors being taken down as well. Watch distress with Deutsche Bank - already heavily ladened with bad debt and unlikely to provide much support in the days and months ahead. If it falls, the banking industry could collapse globally.
***
In a bold move that champions parental rights and counters the rise of state intervention in family matters, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently unveiled a groundbreaking parental rights policy. This initiative represents a significant pushback against a growing trend that seeks to undermine parental authority, particularly in matters concerning education and gender ideology.
Alberta’s new policy, as outlined by Premier Smith, takes a firm stand against gender reassignment surgery for minors under 18 and the use of puberty blockers and hormone therapies for those aged 15 and younger. This common sense approach prioritizes the well-being of children, ensuring that decisions with irreversible physical and psychological effects are made with due caution and parental involvement. The policy further mandates parental consent for name or pronoun changes for children under 16 and notification for those between 16 and 17, reinstating parents as primary stakeholders in their children’s development.
Amidst this backdrop, a statement by Randall Garrison, a New Democratic Party member of parliament, has sparked outrage for its endorsement of a disturbingly authoritarian and decidedly communist view that directly opposes the fundamental rights of parents. He stated, “There’s no such thing as parental rights in Canada,” “Children have rights in Canada, and these kinds of policies restrict the rights children have.” This comment has alarmed many who value the family unit and parental involvement in a child’s upbringing.
https://rairfoundation.com/defending-family-albertas-bold-resistance-against-canadas-march/
OBSERVATION - Canada has been and continues to be one of the hot bed WEF development countries - pushing forward from a national govt level to force WEF standards and goals on the rest of the county. Parental rights and linkage to the trans-terrorism programs of the left as a means to destroy the family (so they can rebuild it in their image) is high on that agenda.
This is not the only agenda the western Canadian territories have been pushing back on Ottawa on. Farming and oil/gas/coal restrictions have generated push back as well. Trudeau is seeing the possibility of being voted out of office at the next election, so expect more of these kinds of destructive edicts to come out as he tries to sustain his numbers in liberal, urban Canada.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the price level of many goods in the United States will likely remain high for the foreseeable future but argued it isn’t President Joe Biden’s fault. Her remarks came during an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday for a hearing addressing the financial stability of the U.S. economy. Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) pressed Sec. Yellen on whether Americans should expect a decrease in prices any time soon. The Louisana Republican bluntly asked Biden’s Treasury Secretary: “These high prices, caused by ‘Bidenomics,’ are here to stay – aren’t they?”
“Well, the high prices were not caused by ‘Bidenomics,’” responded Sec. Yellen, before trying to shift the blame for inflation: “We suffered a pandemic that resulted in severe dislocations.” Cutting through the spin, Sen. Kennedy again pressed Yellen on whether prices would fall, asking: “But if I could ask you, they’re here to stay, aren’t they?” Responding to Kennedy, Sec. Yellen admitted she does not expect the level of prices to go down.
OBSERVATION - The simple fact is, unless leadership of the country does a drastic switch from progressive marxism and its foolish lockstep march with the goals of the WEF, prices won’t even have a chance to go down. This is no longer the “Before Years” but that of the ‘new norm’. Yellen, et al want high prices and a tip over of the economy in order to enforce the plans of the WEF onto the US. Many have noted that all it would take is one major global disaster to achieve such things as CBDC and digital IDs being forced on Americans. That is the end game.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was hospitalized Sunday following symptoms pointing to an “emergent bladder issue,” the Pentagon said. Austin transferred the functions and duties of the office of the Secretary of Defense to Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks the Pentagon said
***
The U.S. Navy’s Destroyer Squadron 2 commander was relieved of duty “due to a loss of confidence” in his ability to perform, the Navy said, marking the third naval commander to be removed this year.
Capt. William “Mac” Harkin was relieved of command of the squadron by Rear Adm. Erik Eslich, the leader of the Carrier Strike Group 12, the Navy said Saturday.
The Navy removed 16 commanding officers last year, and a “loss of confidence” was given as the reasoning behind relieving 14 of them.
OBSERVATION - With the exception of one, nothing further than the “loss of confidence” is listed. This is from a post-0bama purge of the military that targeted the competent in favor of the politically reliable. The fallout of the new DEI based promotion methodology coming out may be what is being seen here. I really don’t remember this many being relieved in the past.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan pushed forward in a rare Super Bowl Sunday vote.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
The first polls to come out following the devastating report by Special Counsel Robert Hur shows that voters are even more skeptical about Joe Biden being able to serve as president for another term.
The poll, conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, found that 86% of voters believe Joe Biden is too old to serve a second term. That’s up from a September poll showing 74% of voters thought Biden was too old.
The poll shows 59% of voters think both Biden and Donald Trump are too old to serve, while only 27% think only Biden is too old. Fully 91% of independents believe Biden is too old to serve another term as president.
Just 62% of voters think Trump is too old. More troubling for Biden, an astonishing 73% of Democrats think he’s too old to serve another term. Only 35% of Republicans think the same of Trump.
OBSERVATION - Though Trump takes some hits in this poll, biden is devastated. Again, caution before running too quickly with these polls - their purpose at this stage is to form public opinion over actual views.
MORE BAD NEWS FOR BIDEN - Voters say Pres. Joe Biden’s mental decline is getting worse – and they’re not fooled by the media’s efforts to cover up his cognitive deterioration.
A national Rasmussen survey released Monday reveals that 61% of U.S. likely voters say it’s at least “somewhat” likely that the “news media are helping cover up evidence of President Biden’s declining mental sharpness.”
Nearly half (45%) of voters say it’s “very likely” there’s a media cover-up of the president’s mental decline.
In another question, 59% say Biden is getting less and less mentally sharp over time. A third (33%) think he’s not, while 8% aren’t sure.
Of those who think Biden’s mental state is getting worse, 89% say the media is covering up his decline. Fully 70% say it’s “very likely” the media are engaged in a cover-up of evidence that Biden’s mind is failing.
The views of Independent voters (not Democrat or Republican) mirror those of all likely voters combined, with 61% saying Biden is in mental decline and 82% saying it’s either very likely (41%) or somewhat likely (21%) the media are covering it up.
These views should be showing up on the next Trump v Biden election polls.
***
This Ad that biden put out during the Super Bowl will not age well.
“While you were Super Bowl shopping, did you notice smaller-than-usual products where the price stays the same?
Folks are calling it Shrinkflation and it means companies are giving you less for every dollar you spend.
I’m calling on the big consumer brands to put a stop to it.”
OBSERVATION - Companies ‘shrank’ products in order to project the image that prices have not gone up due to biden induced economic policies. I’ve seen shrinkage in the stores for 3 years now, it is not new. However, by pointing more consumer attention on it, the backlash may come around and bite his ‘bidenomics’ campaign issue in the rear. I really don’t think he realizes that once consumers pay full inflation prices for the previously ‘full sized’ items that they will be happy, happy, happy at all. Blaming companies for inflation driven by his policies will not be a winning fight for him.
***
Biden has told aides and outside advisers that Attorney General Merrick Garland did not do enough to rein in a special counsel report stating that the president had diminished mental faculties, according to two people close to the president, as White House frustration with the head of the Justice Department grows.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/09/white-house-frustration-with-garland-grows-00140813
OBSERVATION - Both the WH and DoJ claim that their actions are not politically driven, but the latest has opened up the curtain to show that there has been a drive at weaponizing the DoJ against democrat opponents. The Hur report turned around and bit them because in the midst of all this, the DoJ is trying to keep a facade of neutrality up. That facade has tanken a major beating since the report’s release - exposing the double prosecution standard Garland operates.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
New York, Vermont and New Hampshire counties have seen a record number of illegal border crossings in recent months, startling statistics show.
The new numbers, up more than twofold from 2022, come as an increasing number of migrants elect to travel through Canada rather than Mexico to avoid detection, creating a new spin on the now years-long crisis.
While most still use legal ports of entry, more than 12,200 were apprehended crossing illegally from the north in 2023 - much more than the 3,578 arrested the year prior.
OBSERVATION - Canada doesn’t have the same illegal immigrant support structure the assaults on the southern border have. Still the majority of illegals are coming from central and south american countries and it is cheaper and relatively easier to proceed to the southern border rather than procure passage to get into Canada and proceed south.
***
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston announced a decrease in city services on Friday to help offset costs inflicted by the city’s migrant crisis.
The reduction includes cuts in the hours of operation for several Department of Motor Vehicles offices, and the city’s Parks and Recreation services will reduce their spring programming by 25%. Community centers will also reduce the number of days they are open from seven to six.
OBSERVATION - Denver is not the only blue city cutting services to fund illegal care. NYC and Chicago are doing the same. As these cuts affect the quality of life for citizens - these in your face illegals will be making campaigning democrats squirm going into November.
***
Numbers now coming in to gauge the effects of the TX border shut down efforts. On Saturday, there was a total of almost 7,000 encounters with illegal aliens at the southern border. Of that number, over 2,500 of those were in the Tucson sector in Arizona. A significant portion of the “gotaways” in this sector are on Indian reservation land. This area has no wall and zero media access.
OBSERVATION - Illegals are now significantly shifting their pathways into the US. Since the state leadership of NM, AZ and CA are all liberal leftists, don’t expect them to do anything about it.
RELATED - The number of apprehensions of illegal border crossers along the southwest border in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (Q1 FY24) is the highest in U.S. history.
They totaled 785,422, greater than the individual populations of three U.S. states: Wyoming (586,485), Vermont (647,818), and Alaska (733,536) and nearly the population of North Dakota (788,940).
In Q1 FY24, apprehensions at the southwest border alone totaled 240,981 in October, 242,407 in November and 302,034 in December.
By comparison, in Q1 FY23, apprehensions at the southwest border totaled 231,529 in October, 235,173 in November, and 252,315 in December.
China –
China held one of its largest military parades ever over the weekend.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
14 of 17 Shahed drones, and Kh-59 missile were shot down overnight. 3 wounded as result of Russian missile strike with S-300 missiles in Selydove
There are reports that Ukraine ADA stocks are falling to dangerously low levels, reducing coverage of front line units. This is permitting Russian ground attack aircraft greater freedom to strike Ukrainian positions.
Ukraine is reportedly sending a fresh combat brigade into the Avdiivka zone to secure the northern flank from Russian advances that are threatening supply lines.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Avdiivka continues to be a hot spot with Ukraine supply lines endangered and the increasing potential for encirclement of the city.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Two Israeli hostages were rescued from an apartment in Rafah overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 103 being held hostage in Gaza. Two rescued overnight
The Washington Post reports that U.S. officials doubt Israel’s ability to achieve a complete military victory in Gaza
PA leader Mahmoud Abbas will discuss a new Palestinian unity government with the Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, according to the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday.
Details are still scarce, but according to the report, this new government will be technocratic in nature and led by experts, rather than political. The proposed head of the new government will reportedly be Dr. Muhammad Mustafa, the head of the Palestinian Investment Fund.
Asharq Al-Awsat also mentions the proposal possibly taking steps to absorb Hamas within the PLO.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israeli forces rescued two hostages, Luis Har and Fernado Simon Marman, in a complex military operation in Rafah. Both former hostages are now in Israel, at the Sheba hospital, and have been reunited with their families. The operation was carried out by a clandestine force who arrived overnight at the target and stormed a heavily guarded apartment where the hostages were detained, exchanging fire with gunmen, leading to the death of several of them. One Israeli soldier was lightly wounded.
Hamas almost immediately tried to spin the rescue operation into a massive attack on civilians - ignoring completely that civilians were encamped around the hostages as human shields against Israeli rescue.
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The Israeli army says it captured approximately 20 militants hiding in the al-Amal hospital in Western Khan Younis. The detained militants were transferred to Israel for interrogation
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Israel reports that operations to move non-combatants out of the Rafah zone have begun.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
An Israeli drone carried out a targeted attack in Bint Jbeil in Lebanon, according to Arab reports. The target of the attack was Mohammed Alaviya, a senior member of Hezbollah and responsible for the Maroun al-Ras region, according to the Saudi “Al Hadith” network and Sky News in Arabic.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
“Syria has waged several wars against Israel and is ready for new ones,” the foreign minister said. The Syrian diplomat said that his country was ready to liberate parts of its territory occupied illegally by Israel (Golan Heights), the United States (Conico Oil FIelds) and Turkey (Northeastern Syria / Kurdistan).
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian traveled to Lebanon and Syria over the weekend to discuss Israeli aggression. In particular, he was received by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who stressed that by supplying arms to Israel, the US is increasing the risk of the conflict spreading to other countries in the Middle East.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US Central Command: Yesterday, we attacked two boats and 5 cruise missiles that were prepared to be launched in the Red Sea.
The Houthis are sending an unusually high number of of drone boats against Red Sea vessels, according to a US military statement. This follows days ago a pair of drone boats being destroyed by US missiles. Since last year, the Houthis have primarily relied upon drones and ballistic missiles, with explosive-laden drone boats making an occasional appearance, but now it appears these ‘suicide boats’ are seeing greater use.
A Greek-owned bulker, the Star Iris, was attacked by two missiles in the Red Sea Monday morning. No reports of damage or casualties.
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———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UAE ambassador to the U.N. Lana Nusseibeh: There must be an irreversible progression to a two-state solution
Ankara: We are concerned about Israel’s escalation of its attacks on Rafah, and we consider it part of its plan to expel the residents of the Gaza Strip from their land.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The rescue of Jewish hostages in Rafah has shown new reasons for the ground invasion into the town to commence. Almost predictable the world is condoning Hamas’ use of human shields to protect its last stronghold and in the forefront use of hostages. The two rescued hostages were in an apartment building that housed ‘civilians’ - they had to know what was going on and condoned it. Knowing that there are more hostages in the town will drive Israel even harder to enter the city to subdue Hamas forces there and rescue more. That full blown ground assault is likely to begin some time this week.