Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Developments of the last 24-48 hours have pushed the likelihood of the “Great Divorce” that much closer to happening. I’m assessing what would happen in my corner of the Redoubt show things go sideways at Eagle Pass TX. Currently my state is standing with TX, but all states that are signing on their support need to issue warning orders to their NG elements to prepare for action.

Freepers need to plan accordingly

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****

European Central Bank asks some lenders to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs — Reuters

OBSERVATION - Cryptic request that suggests that some kind of event is going to happen. Why not all lenders? How much / many assets do these lending institutions have to conduct social media monitoring?

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

Texas Governor Greg Abbott issues statement DEFYING The Supreme Court, The Invasion response “SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”

“The federal government has BROKEN THE COMPACT between the United States and the States.

“I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”

Link to declaration -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEoV81DWwAA85zy?format=jpg&name=large

States on record all announcing that they stand with Texas and Gov. Greg Abbott in the border dispute with the federal government include -

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte

Numerous other states have over the past months sent NG and other assistance to TX, but have yet to stand to the latest challenge.
NOTE - The numbers are increasing, pending confirmation of support from other states.

Dems in Congress are calling on Biden to seize control of the TX National Guard.

OBSERVATION - This document - any you gotta read it if you haven’t - expresses clearly and constitutionally the failure of the regime to defend the border and the overwhelming right of the states to step forward to respond to this invasion.

Very key statement is BROKEN THE COMPACT. It forces the divide with the regime and provides cover for NG units to continue to operate in defense of the border - to the point that any attempt to nationalize them would be rendered moot because it would be unconstitutional under the present circumstances.

This leads me to consider the regime’s options - and it is building into a lose/lose scenario for biden. Among some options -

- Sending active duty troops to quell the ‘rebellion’. Politics in an election year would make this a death knell for biden. Very few except for rabid leftists would endorse this action of sending troops to fight citizens over this issue. This would also trigger civilian militas and supporting states to potentially intervene. And that is to believe that the soldiers would willing go off and try to fight other americans. Woke DEI hasn’t gotten all our troops.

- Nationalize the NG. I’m not a lawyer, but commentary from those who are better versed in this indicate that the TXNG could tell the regime to take a hike under the violations of the US Constitution Abbot clearly laid out. Again, the visuals of the action in the lens of a campaign year would not look good.

- Use armed elements of the DHS,FBI, Fed marshals, etc to force access and control. Again - big shoot out doesn’t pllay well with most americans and it will rally support for TX by aligned red states.

- Do nothing but bluster and lie. That is the current trend. However, the press corps (sensing administration blood in the water over its invasion operation) is not letting them off the hook. Press conferences of the past couple days have WH spokescritters throwing all kinds of easily demonstrably false answers and obfuscations out there. As those hit the wires, it will trigger even more negative opinions by the citizenry.

OK, so what is my prognostication? I wish I knew for certain. I don’t think the regime is ready to use the force card, by either the active duty military or armed goons of the alphabet agencies. They may attempt a show of force and try to demand access soon; an effort that would attempt to save face and set the DoJ into actions in the ongoing law fare on the border. When it comes to head on head, the regime seems to weaken. Nationalizing the NG remains a possibility, but the guard may blow that off, citing that it would be an unconstitutional order under the present situation.

I certainly hope the regime is reluctant to force the situation via violent means. To do so would trigger an almost instantaneous civil war across TX as well as core red states.

Biden may hold off announcing an action until the SOTU address in March - a ‘surprise’ action in the works.

Dangerous thought - triggering such an action could be desired - in order to declare martial law and shelve the elections. Very dangerous thought.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Biden admin. is planning to pull US forces out of Syria, Foreign Policy reported. “While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary,” the report added

OBSERVATION - A smaller scale version of Afghanistan developing.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****
Jeff DeWit to resign as Arizona Republican Party chair after recording revealed he offered Kari Lake a bribe not to run for Senate.

OBSERVATION - Republicans were cheated out big time in the AZ elections, and the republican party failed to rise to the occasion to challenge the blatant vote fraud that has been uncovered, way more than enough to have overturned the election results. Who’s funding the ruin of the AZ republican party from the inside?

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***
A new poll reveals that immigration is now the leading policy concern among American voters, outpacing inflation and other national issues like economics and jobs.

The poll, conducted by the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies in collaboration with market research and analytics firm The Harvard Poll this January, shows a shift in public sentiment, with 35 percent of respondents identifying immigration as their primary concern this coming election and inflation closely behind at 32 percent.

“Economy and jobs” followed after immigration and inflation, with 25 percent of the votes from respondents. “Crime and drugs” and health care each only garnered 16 percent of the votes from participants, while the deficit and national security got 14 percent. Corruption and the environment rounded out the list, with only 13 percent of respondents highlighting these issues.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4422273-immigration-overtakes-inflation-top-voter-concern-poll/

OBSERVATION - Quite the timing, with the border issue exploding into a growing standoff between Texas (and aligning states) and biden regime.

***
U.S. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Utah Sen. Mike Lee and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are speaking out about the ongoing negotiations between the regime and McConnell. It has some very deep ugliness -

- Legally establish 5,000 illegal aliens entering the country per day as the new norm, requiring the crisis hit that number before the president could invoke Title 42-esque authority, effectively forcing Americans to, at minimum, accept 1.8 million illegal aliens a year.

- Provide amnesty to a “documented Dreamer” class, taking care of 250,000 people whose parents replaced American workers under the deeply flawed H-1B guest worker program.

- Keep mass parole programs in place — provided illegal immigrants enter through American airports, not at the border.

- Give quicker work permits to illegal aliens likely committing asylum fraud by ending the 180-day wait period.

- Expand the already vast network of free benefits like legal services for illegal aliens—adding to the services American taxpayers already fund to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

— Funnel billions of dollars to the corrupt NGOs that profit off the border crisis by transporting, lodging, and helping illegal aliens enter the country every day.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/24/senate-republican-josh-hawley-mike-lee-ted-cruz-border-deal-leak-proposal/

OBSERVATION - It is also known that McConnell is trying to gain enough Republican support to override any filibuster of the bill. This is a gross sellout of the country and needs to be brought to light.

***
Illegals are now being housed at Logan airport, Boston. The MA Governor previously asked citizens to take illegals into their homes.
MA is the only state with a right-to-shelter law which means the state must provide shelter for anyone who needs it.

OBSERVATION - Numerous rumors out there that are suggesting that these mayors and governors are contemplating forcing citizens to house illegals. The loony left are already making the noise - until, like Martha’s Vineyard, its time for them to house these ungrateful parasites in their multimillion dollar mansions.

China –

China has initiated some actions to try to stabilize their stock markets. This caused a jump in prices yesterday, but questions continue on how long this quick fix will stabilize matters.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 14 Shahed drones overnight

Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 91 Ukrainian drones in last 24 hours

The Russian Il-76 shot down the other day continues to be a focus of discussion. Russia claims it contained POWs, Ukraine claims otherwise. OSINT analysts are questioning Russia’s claim based on tracking of the aircraft through the region as well as its actions of the day. Apparently it has been identified in the past as carrying ammunition into the city on a regular basis, and on that day it arrived from the middle east (hardly a POW holding area) and upon take off was headed to Moscow - again, not conducive of a POW exchange story.

The second part of the story involves how Ukraine has creatively deployed Patriot elements for what essentially could be considered to be a ‘hit and run’ operation. Deploy limited elements far far forward to engage Russian air traffic that has been following a definite routine, hit them and then get out of dodge to avoid detection and destruction.

Russian Territory –
In Tuapse, Russia, an energy facility was hit presumably by drones.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.

Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire. In this instance, Russia is struggling. Ukraine has come out with longer range drones and they have been reaching out and hitting unprotected petroleum and manufacturing sites. Russia is scrambling to get air defense assets to cover these targets, but with the losses from the war and limited availability of reserve systems, they are getting stretched pretty thin. I’ve noted this before - Russian is a target rich environment for these kinds of attacks, with a lot of territory that air defense is required to protect. In the case of St Petersburg, they are trying to close the barn door after the horses have gotten out.

Some analysts are trying to say Russia is attempting to do similar to Ukraine - thin out the ADA network. Russian problem is Ukraine, though pretty large, is more compact, making necessary ‘thinning’ by Russian attack planners, very difficult. Compactness grants Ukraine the ability to shift elements without significant impacts to the overall ADA network.

Europe / NATO General –

The head of the British army has issued a warning to the people of the United Kingdom to prepare themselves for a war comparable to the major wars of the 20th century and that they may need to mobilize.
General Sir Patrick Sanders said that we must recall the lessons of past conflicts before it is too late, stating that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a foreshadowing of things to come.

OBSERVATION - Continued warnings of impending war by European nations. What are they seeing that most do not?

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Violent armed clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.

Clashes broke out between rioters and Israeli security forces in Al-Fawwar camp, south of Hebron

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The “Islamic Resistance” announces the targeting of 3 American bases in Iraq and Syria

***
CENTCOM: Houthis Attack Commercial Shipping Vessel with Anti-Ship MissilesOn Jan. 24 at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated container ship M/V Maersk Detroit, transiting the Gulf of Aden. One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107). There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship

Top container shipper AP Moller-Maersk, sent a memo to its customers advising them to brace for complications and disruptions in the Red Sea region. The memo expressed the company’s commitment to contributing to a sustainable resolution while acknowledging the potential for a prolonged impact on the global shipping network.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

British Foreign Minister - It is unrealistic to cease fire while Hamas is able to fire rockets at Israel

***
Iran and Turkey have agreed to back terrorist organizations fighting against Israel, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi proclaimed on Wednesday following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Speaking alongside Erdoğan at the presidential palace in Ankara, Raisi said, “In the talks we had with the Turkish president…we both agreed to support Palestine. We both agreed to support the Islamic resistance in Palestine,” according to Tehran’s semi-official Student News Agency.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

Houthi continue to scare shipping away from the Red Sea. Yesterday they attacked a convoy protected by a US destroyer and some reports say that even turned ships back. The operation Poseidon something or other is not hitting the Houthi’s as hard and continually as they need to.

Islamic ‘resistance’ forces may be close to achieving victory in eastern Syria with US leaders reportedly making plans to pull out (borderline RUMINT). Trump initially ordered a pull out under his first term, but the military / diplomats squealed and convinced Trump to change his mind. A pull-out under the current situation - under increasing fire - will be seen by Iran and all its proxies as a victory and encourage them to militarily challenge US forces elsewhere.

Other repercussions? Iran / Syria are not ready to face a resurgent ISIS. Syria throughly bogged down in its civil war and fighting not only rebels, but Turkish intrusions, Kurds and Jordan. Iran is already deeply involved with the Gaza conflict and Houthi support. ISIS, the unintended consequences of forcing the US out of eastern Syria.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
European farmers, as in one voice, say that the green policies and taxes are taking them to the very edge of bankruptcy, in what becomes in all practical terms a ‘manufactured famine’.

While Germany continues to have mass protests, the attention is shifting to France where reports that truckers, fisherman & construction workers are joining the French Farmers in rejecting their Tyrannical Globalist sell-out Government. A key element of this new development is that it appears a blockade of sorts is developing against Paris - trucker boycotts and farm blockades. If successful, supply chains would be seriously disrupted and shop shelves will be bare within as little as three days.

OBSERVATION - Remember, he who controls the food, controls the population. The growing emphasis from the WEF Davos confab is that agriculture must die. The corollary point is that people must be culled as well via a manufactured famine.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

biden regime has given TX until close of business today to surrender the Eagle Pass park. So far, TX has not buckled to that demand and the Lt Gov warned federal agencies not to try anything.

TX guard continues to reinforce the 30 mile stretch at Eagle Pass with more razor wire and fencing. The move does not appear to violate the Supreme Court order, which granted federal ‘permission’ for the removal of existing wire, while saying nothing about adding new barriers.

25 Republican governors have signed onto a letter expressing full support to TX in its standoff with the feds. Including TX, 26 states are now being designated by some as “anti-federalist”. This includes about 147 million citizens. If one were to include the Red counties trapped in blue state control, the numbers of Americans supporting TX grows even more, to probably more than half the country. This compact with TX has these states being designated “anti-federalist” in some circles.

The joint statement reads as follows -

“President Biden and his Administration have left Americans and our country completely vulnerable to unprecedented illegal immigration pouring across the Southern border. Instead of upholding the rule of law and securing the border, the Biden Administration has attacked and sued Texas for stepping up to protect American citizens from historic levels of illegal immigrants, deadly drugs like fentanyl, and terrorists entering our country.

“We stand in solidarity with our fellow Governor, Greg Abbott, and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy, including razor wire fences, to secure the border. We do it in part because the Biden Administration is refusing to enforce immigration laws already on the books and is illegally allowing mass parole across America of migrants who entered our country illegally.

“The authors of the U.S. Constitution made clear that in times like this, states have a right of self-defense, under Article 4, Section 4 and Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution. Because the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has every legal justification to protect the sovereignty of our states and our nation.”

Signatories include: Governor Kay Ivey (AL), Governor Mike Dunleavy (AK), Governor Sarah Sanders (AR), Governor Ron DeSantis (FL), Governor Brian Kemp (GA), Governor Brad Little (ID), Governor Eric Holcomb (IN), Governor Kim Reynolds (IA), Governor Jeff Landry (LA), Governor Tate Reeves (MS), Governor Mike Parson (MO), Governor Greg Gianforte (MT), Governor Jim Pillen (NE), Governor Joe Lombardo (NV), Governor Chris Sununu (NH), Governor Doug Burgum (ND), Governor Mike DeWine (OH), Governor Kevin Stitt (OK), Governor Henry McMaster (SC), Governor Kristi Noem (SD), Governor Bill Lee (TN), Governor Spencer Cox (UT), Governor Glenn Youngkin (VA), Governor Jim Justice (WV), and Governor Mark Gordon (WY).

This developing compact serves as a shot across the bow of the lawless actions of the regime.

Donald Trump said Thursday -
“... We encourage all willing States to deploy their guards to Texas to prevent the entry of Illegals, and to remove them back across the Border,” he posted to Truth Social. “All Americans should support the commonsense measures by Texas authorities to protect the Safety, Security, and Sovereignty of Texas, and of the American people.”

A great deal of speculation as to what the feds will do to enforce their ultimatum. Here they have to tread VERY lightly otherwise they may provoke a shooting event the likes of which hasn’t been seen since CW1. More rabid leftists now calling for the arrest of Abbot and the placement of a new “governor” until the state is pacified. That isn’t going to fly obviously (but in today’s insanity - they may try it). The nationalization of the NG has raised its head also. This brings the developing compact of the ‘anti-federalist’ states into play - will they respond to the beacons with NG deployments to TX to reinforce the state? This would force the regime to potentially ‘nationalize’ a much larger portion of the Guard - and that nationalization decree may be ignored by the states.

RUMINT a foot regarding large numbers of Patriot militia groups mobilizing and headed to TX. The extent of this ‘mobilization’ may well exaggerated at this moment, but it is highly likely that there are many groups enroute to the border region both from within TX as well as supporting states.

Bottom line - biden’s ultimatum has the potential of lighting a fuse that can expand into a much more serious Constitutional crisis than is currently present. Eagle Pass has been on of the illegal crossing points that has seen thousands of illegals cross on a daily basis for much of the past three years. If biden sends his storm troopers in with guns blazing - all heck will break loose.

Final observation - I am recalibrating my thoughts regarding the configuration of the CW2 conflict should it get that far. Last year the trigger appeared to be primarily due to a societal breakdown and general blue v red fight between urban areas and rural, without definite state-level govt involvement to most of the fighting. Picture a 2020 on steroids if you would. This situation now inserts states as a political entity standing up against fed tyrannical power. This is more the classical view of CW some have pushed.

Should things go sideways, I still expect to see urban areas go up in flames as the social welfare/criminal class take advantage of the situation to consolidate gang power and attack those red elements within reach. Rural red areas will keep the rampaging hordes contained in their cities as the resources and cover they have in those areas are stripped away as they move into rural regions and find a much more lethal and prepared opponent.

Never thought I’d live to see things get this far.

***
Example of red areas of blue states fighting back against the tyranny of the left

“While virtually all of the “gun-free zones” challenged by Second Amendment groups as part of their litigation against California’s SB 2 have now been placed on hold thanks to an injunction issued by a federal judge, there are still a few “sensitive places” that weren’t a part of those initial challenges where guns are still prohibited. Among them are government buildings, but supervisors in Shasta County, California voted this week to, in essence, ignore state law and allow concealed carry holders to exercise their right to bear arms in those locations… at least if they’re not employed by the county and on the clock.”

https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2024/01/25/california-county-defies-sacramento-with-new-concealed-carry-policy-n79785

OBSERVATION - Leftist controlled states like Kalifornia will face even more opposition from red, predominantly rural areas as pushback on the infringements of constitutional rights continue. Relates directly to the progress of a CW2 scenario.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

***
The nation’s economy grew at an unexpectedly brisk 3.3% annual pace from October through December as Americans showed a continued willingness to spend freely despite high interest rates and price levels that have frustrated many households

Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — decelerated from its sizzling 4.9% growth rate the previous quarter. But the latest figures still reflected the surprising durability of the world’s largest economy, marking the sixth straight quarter in which GDP has grown at an annual pace of 2% or more. Consumers fueled much of last quarter’s expansion.

For the full year, the economy grew 2.5%, up from 1.9% in 2022.

https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-economy-grew-at-a-surprisingly-strong-3-3-pace-last-quarter-pointing-to-continued-resilience/

OBSERVATION - Key aspect is that the main ‘consumer’ has been the US Govt continuing its spending spree. Layoff across the economic spectrum have been increasing - pointing to ever decreasing demands of goods and services by the private sector.

***

On Thursday, the U.S. government sold the Federal Helium Reserve, a massive underground stockpile based in Amarillo, Texas, that supplies up to 30% of the country’s helium.

Once the deal is finalized, the buyer — which will likely be the highest bidder, the industrial gas company Messer — will claim some 425 miles of pipelines spanning Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma, plus about 1 billion cubic feet of the only element on Earth cold enough to make an MRI machine work.
The sale of the government’s stockpile of the nonrenewable element could exacerbate an existing supply shortage.

A number of factors could trigger a shutdown of the facility that could last as long as three years, said Rich Gottwald, CEO of the Compressed Gas Association, a trade group that represents companies, including Messer, that buy up helium and sell it to hospitals, semiconductor manufacturers, NASA and other customers.

The facility spans three states, each with its own laws. The federal government didn’t need to reconcile state-specific rules, but a private buyer would, he said. Another issue is that helium must be enriched before it can be used, and a separate system is needed to do that. That enrichment system isn’t part of the federal reserve, but is privately owned by four private companies, including Messer; unlike the pipelines and helium itself, it wasn’t for sale.

“A new owner will need to create some sort of lease to use the enrichment unit, or build their own unit to enrich the helium,” Gottwald said. “There’s a whole host of issues that need to be resolved and the concern is, until they’re resolved, the system will need to shut down.”
The sale has been in the works for more than a decade. Congress first mandated it through the Helium Stewardship Act of 2013. It was initially supposed to occur in 2021, but a series of delays — in part due to the same logistical and regulatory issues threatening shutdowns today — postponed the auction to Thursday.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/us-just-sold-helium-stockpile-s-medical-world-worried-rcna134785

OBSERVATION - Timing is everything and it seems that the govt is suddenly pushing this sale through without working thru the transition issues - to the potential detriment of our healthcare system. Another component to add more chaos to the overall system.

***
Last Thursday, Bloomberg reported that federal regulators are preparing a proposal to force US banks to utilize the Federal Reserve’s discount window in preparation for future bank crises. The aim, notes Katanga Johnson, is to remove the stigma around tapping into this financial lifeline, part of the continuing fallout from the failures of several significant regional banks last year.

This new policy is reminiscent of the Fed’s actions during the 2007 financial crisis, where financial authorities encouraged large banks to tap into the discount window, taking loans directly from the Federal Reserve, to make it easier for distressed banks to do the same. The hesitancy from financial institutions to tap into this source of liquidity is justified. If the public believes a bank needs support from the Fed, it is rational for depositors to flee the bank. The Fed’s explicit aim is to provide cover from at-risk banks, trying to hold off bank runs that are an inherent risk in our modern fractional reserve banking system.

https://ourgoldguy.com/2024/01/26/the-fed-prepares-for-a-bank-crisis-while-telling-americans-the-economy-is-strong/

OBSERVATION - Financial gurus here could likely make more out of this, but as the article notes - this seems to be actions in anticipation of the next banking crisis. Banks are still at great risk since last spring’s melt down of several major banks. This action is not instilling confidence in the system.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****
Jeff DeWit resignation as Arizona Republican Party chair and his actions to attempt to bribe Lake into not running for Senate has continued to raise questions of who is the power player behind DeWit’s efforts.

Eyes are beginning to focus on Mitch McConnell. Lake’s American First stance and character would pose a threat to the RINO / Crypto democrat Republicans he leads and upset his apple cart.

***
The Trump asked the RNC not to take action to essentially crown him the party’s presumptive nominee after his substantial wins in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.

OBSERVATION - Not really read much of the reasoning behind these actions. On one hand, party unity going into the elections is critical. But I think the real reason is that to call the race so soon puts the Republican party into a situation where they drop out of the political spotlight that these primaries bring. No primaries, no massive Trump rallies, nothing keeping it in the news cycle. A backdoor way to shut down MAGA support from growing? Hmmmm.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

House republicans appear to be accelerating the impeachment process of Mayorkas in part due to the escalating crisis between TX and biden (via Mayorkas lead DHS).

OBSERVATION - Republicans are likely to pass articles of impeachment against Mayorkas, though the Senate is unlikely to convict Mayorkas. Symbolism

***
McConnell’s bipartisan border deal in the US Senate meanwhile faces objections from right and left. This largely due to leaks in the bill that clearly would lock in the tsunami of illegals in for a long time.

OBSERVATION - Now coming into the light and with the present polls indicating that illegal immigration is a concern, it is becoming more and more unlikely that McConnell will gather the republican support to hold off a successful filibuster of the bill.

China –

The most general and also most disturbing news is China’s continuing deflation. According to Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices in December fell 0.3 percent from the year before. That is a slight improvement over the 0.5 percent deflation recorded in November, but it is hard to make too much of these kinds of month-to-month wiggles.

The fact is that prices are in decline and have been declining off and on since March. Producer prices, which the Chinese authorities call “prices at the factory gate,” tell an even more distressing story. These showed a December drop of 2.7 percent from year-ago levels, the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline.

Deflation—especially the consistent and dramatic sort China has suffered—clearly signals insufficient demand.

China’s still very export-dependent economy needs sales to produce acceptable overall growth rates. Exports to the United States in December fell 6.9 percent from year-ago levels, and exports to the European Union fell 1.9 percent. December exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were 6.14 percent lower than year-ago levels.

The property development collapse of the past two years has left in Chinese financial markets a legacy of questionable debt that has hamstrung the nation’s ability to finance new investments—both public and private—and, hence, growth. The real estate collapse has also depressed homebuilding, an area that until recently was a bulwark of the Chinese economy. At the same time, these problems, by depressing home values and so the net worth of Chinese households, have also held back consumer spending, which China needs now, especially with weak exports.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/no-help-yet-for-chinas-sorry-economy-5571560?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to impact it and places a large target on Xi as he attempts to placate an increasing restless population feeling the pinch of those woes. It further threatens his goals of military build up by sucking money away into trying to hold up the economy and away from military investments - which now seem to be very much misused by corrupt generals.

North/South Korea –

More analysis is being given to NK’s recent war rhetoric as being something more than the historic chest beating by its leadership.

Kim ordered a monument meant to symbolize hope for reunification torn down.

“Kim last week described the Pyongyang monument as an “eyesore” and called for its removal while declaring that the North was abandoning long-standing goals of a peaceful unification with South Korea and ordered a rewriting of the North’s constitution to define the South as its most hostile foreign adversary.”

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/01/25/something-really-has-changed-in-north-korea-n607423

U.S. officials to NYT have stated that North Korea could conduct lethal military actions against South Korea in the coming months. South Korean officials previously warned of this possibility, and they don’t rule out it could occur near the upcoming South Korean elections (which will occur in April) or later in the year.

OBSERVATION - While Kim has been calling on his country to prepare for war over the past several years, I’m willing to give the analysts the benefit of the doubt that he is indeed turned a corner and moving forward beyond rhetoric to actual war planning and eventual execution. His growing strategic arsenal including nukes would be the base for his military operations. His ground pounders as still suffering from poor, outdated equipment and lack of training (they have been forced in recent years to work in the fields to grow food for themselves).

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

*****

RUMINT-
Putin reportedly offering an end to the war, granting Ukraine NATO membership, but has to concede territory captured to Russia.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow

Ukrainian air defense shot down Kh-59 missile in Mykolaiv region, otherwise slow drone / missile day for both sides.

Russian Territory –
Big explosion reported in Vyborg of Leningrad region, possible Ukraine drone strike.

Outlook —

Europe / NATO General –

Mass demonstrations in Slovakia against the new pro-russian government. The demonstrations have been going on for over a week now and are continuing to grow.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- ICJ rules against Israel and for S Africa

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.

British Foreign Secretary - There is progress towards stopping the fighting in Gaza, bringing in aid and liberating the hostages

The International Court of Justice, on a 15 to 2 vote, demands Israel take all measures to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza. The ICJ also calls on Hamas to immediately release all hostages and has not ordered a ceasefire in its interim ruling.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis.

In N Gaza, fierce firefights broke out between IDF and Hamas elements as Israel struggles to prevent infiltration of previously secured areas by Hamas.

Hamas’ supply of 20,000 rockets at the start of the war has dwindled to a few hundred, security sources estimate. In the first four hours of the October 7 attack, Hamas fired 3,000 rockets and mortars towards Israel. In total, over the course of the war, around 9,000 rockets crossed into Israeli territory. IDF operations have significantly reduced the supply of rockets which the terror groups still hold. In order to further reduce Hamas’ abilities to manufacture rockets during the fighting, and reduce the ability to fire rockets on the “day after” the war ends, the IDF is focusing on locating the rocket manufacturing sites.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

The IDF on Thursday attacked a key Hezbollah-Iranian airstrip in Kilat Jaber, Lebanon, that was used for launching aerial attacks against Israel, in a major escalation between the sides.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel’s Minister of Economy Nir Barkat hinted at a possible expansion of war in the Middle East by reportedly saying Wednesday that Iran is a “legitimate target” for Israeli missile strikes.

“Iran is a legitimate target for Israel,” Barkat told The Telegraph. “They will not get away with it. The head of the snake is Tehran. My recommendation is to adopt the strategy that President [John F.] Kennedy used in the Cuban missile crisis. What he basically said then was a missile from Cuba will be answered with a missile to Moscow.

“And we should very, very clearly make sure the Iranians understand that they will not get away with using proxies against Israel and sleep good at night if we don’t sleep good at night.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nirbarkat-israel-iran/2024/01/25/id/1151019/

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A second French warship has arrived in the Red Sea region as part of efforts to ensure freedom of navigation, the French army said on Thursday.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

Hamas infiltration back into the north is causing IDF some problems. Whether by tunnels, going to ground or disguised as refugees moving back, they have thrown a wrench into IDF efforts to stabilize and secure the north.

Iran –

This round of the Assembly of Experts is expected to select the next Supreme Leader, given that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is nearly 85 and has been sick repeatedly.

Iran’s Guardian Council’s decision this week to disqualify virtually all “pragmatists,” including former president Hassan Rouhani, from public office makes ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran’s proxies a virtual certainty, and war more likely than ever.

At stake on March 1 are both the parliamentary elections as well as elections for the 88-member, eight-year term Assembly of Experts.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-783774

OBSERVATION - Look to hard liners to rise to the top as Iran surges its efforts against Israel and the West.

Iraq -

The U.S. and Iraq will “in the coming days” begin discussions on the future of American and Coalition troops in that troubled county, according to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani put it more bluntly earlier this month, releasing a statement saying the talks were to “end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently.”

OBSERVATION - This combined with growing speculation that the regime is planning to pull out of eastern Syria indicates a potential full retreat from the region. This is in essence a win for Iran against the US and the west.

OMG - levels of activity across the board are at screeching high levels.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
Biden administration has halted the approval process on multiple liquid natural gas export stations. These stations were already approved by the energy department, but now they must wait at least a year for a rigorous environmental check.

In 2022 Biden met with European leaders and promised natural gas from the US to help them break reliance on Russia. Now, that promise will be broken for at least the next year.

The WH pause on the development of LNG facilities along the east coast and gulf region will hit the economy hard. TX is particularly hit hard.

White House:
“This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time. While MAGA Republicans willfully deny the urgency of the climate crisis, condemning the American people to a dangerous future, my Administration will not be complacent. We will not cede to special interests.”

The White House’s climate team reportedly made this crucial decision regarding a major natural gas project after meeting with a 25-year-old social media influencer, according to The New York Times.

The final decision on CP2 and other LNG export terminals may have serious geopolitical ramifications, too. U.S. LNG exports to Europe have increased substantially since Russia invaded Ukraine, and America’s allies on the continent will need continued access to American LNG to meet demand as they wean off Russian supply, the natural gas trade groups wrote in their letter to Granholm.

OBSERVATION - This pause is likely a first step to kill the project off entirely. It has double impact. The timing when associated to the standoff in TX, the pause would have great economic impacts to TX. Secondly, it is showing European allies once again that the US is not a reliable ally, cutting off promised LNG shipments that were to make up the gap in the loss of Russian NG.

Note - “We will not cede to special interests”, unless they are some obscure TicToker leading a rabble of environmental wackos.

Also Note the use lately of the term “existential threat of our time”. This is a catch phrase that seems to be echoing the Davos WEF confab. This will increasing be used as the justification for more shutdown of the coal, oil and gas industry IMHO, it suggests that in 2024, biden is going to make the play for WEF global warming cutoffs in a big and ominous way. If the left feels that Trump is going to win, they want to burn everything up before he gets into office to make his term as difficult as possible.

***
See “Europe / NATO General” below sharp turn to the right forecast in upcoming elections. This trend was a discussion point that reflected worry on the part of the globalists and unbelief that the unwashed masses would reject their utopian dreams.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

Yesterday, it was rumored that biden had given TX until 1 PM EST to surrender. That time has come and passed with no action by biden’s regime. There were abundant rumors that biden was going to order military actions, but that hasn’t panned out.

The regime has apparently lost the support of the Border Patrol. In statements yesterday the BP rebuked threats from the regime.

The Border Patrol Union says it will not start arresting Texas National Guard members for “following their lawful orders.” The post to X continues by saying:
“TX NG and rank-and-file BP agents work together and respect each other’s jobs. Period. If TX NG members have LAWFUL orders, then they have to carry out those orders.”

In an interview Tucker Carleton, Gov. Abbott says ten other states have sent national guard to the Texas border, and others will follow. Abbott says he is “prepared” for a conflict with federal authorities.

In response to the regime’s demands, Texas Attorney General Paxton responded to DHS denying the agency’s demands to get access to Shelby Park in Eagle Pass—Paxton makes a list of counter-demands:

“By February 15, DHS must supply the official plat maps and deeds demonstrating the precise parcels to which they claim ownership, an explanation of how Texas is preventing access to those specific parcels, documentation showing that Eagle Pass or Texas ever granted permission for DHS to erect infrastructure that interferes with border security, and proof of Congress empowering DHS to turn a Texas park into an unofficial and illegal port of entry. If the federal government is going to make such claims, it must provide proof.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday he is willing to send members of the Florida State Guard to Texas to assist with Gov. Greg Abbott’s declared invasion of illegal immigrants from Mexico.

“We may do more National Guard, but we may be willing to do the Florida State Guard,”said during a news conference in Kissimmee, Florida. “The president would not be able to federalize the State Guard.

Florida lawmakers are working on legislation to remove a requirement the Florida State Guard be used exclusively within the state. Nearly every state has laws authorizing State Guards, and 21 states and Puerto Rico have active units, according to the National Guard Magazine.

Oklahoma is getting ready to send their National Guard to help Texas in their fight against illegal immigration and the Biden administration.
The announcement came from Governor Kevin Stitt.
“We’ve already started putting the numbers together. We’ll be in contact with Governor Abbott.”

Abbot for his part is rallying the Texas State Guard to mobilize for border defense as well. Texas is offering cash for Texas Military Department (TMD) members who will man the borders — the latest development amid tensions with the Biden administration over the southern border.
According to the TMD website, the state is aiming “to deploy border security assets to high threat areas to deny criminal organizations the ability to illegally move drugs and people into Texas.”

The State Guard concept is that of an independent military force raised by the state that is not under federal scrutiny or control. According to TX -
“The Texas State Guard is the state defense force branch of the Texas Military Department. Tasked with providing first response and civil defense force capabilities during Texas disasters and emergencies, the Texas State Guard is the premier state defense force in the United States.”

OBSERVATIONS
Though there are a lot of rumors flowing around out there, but it appears that biden for now is backing off to a degree and looking to let the legal channels flow - the Texas’ Fifth Circuit Court case, still nearly two weeks away on 07 February from hearing the case.

In the interim, the regime may try to take other “Other” mechanisms could include economic punishments. Some view the halting of the approval process on multiple liquid natural gas export stations to be one of those measures as TX stands to lose the most from the closures.

There is still potential for the regime to do something rash given the unstable mental conditions of biden and his handlers. But it think the collective response of affiliated states and the growth of movement of those states to move men to the border in support of TX may have given them second thoughts. Still a very hazardous situation.

***
BURIED under the TX standoff news, Atlanta city officials held an emergency press conference on Jan. 26 after more construction equipment was destroyed in an arson attack by far-left extremists “Forest Defenders” “part of the “stop cop city” terror conspiracy.

IN RELATED “Forest Defenders,” said they targeted a Rolls Royce subsidiary MTU Solutions tech training center in Canton, MI, for vandalism and left behind caltrops, small metal devices meant to puncture vehicle tires.
Another group of “Forest Defenders” in Atlanta, GA, said they targeted two Nationwide Insurance offices because Nationwide is the primary insurance provider for “Cop City.”

OBSERVATIONS - Antifa attacks to stop the project were scheduled to start last week and this is the first info that has popped up on my radar for it. In the past Antifa has vandalized construction equipment in an effort to cause the contractor to withdraw from the project. Apparently, police protection of the site has been substandard since it allowed this arson attacks to be successful. This guerrilla warfare has been successfully prosecuted by Antifa over the past couple years

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

***
The US Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation ticked higher last month, according to government data published Friday, indicating that its long-running battle against rising prices is not over yet.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose at an annual rate of 2.6 percent last month, unchanged from November, the Department of Commerce said in a statement.

On a monthly level, headline PCE inflation rose by 0.2 percent in December, up from a 0.1 percent decline a month earlier. This was in line with market expectations, according to Briefing.com.

“The inflation data support a shift in the FOMC’s policy stance this year, from holding rates steady to lowering them over time,” High Frequency Economics chief US economist Rubeela Farooqi wrote in a note to clients, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-feds-favored-inflation-gauge-rises-before-rate-decision/

OBSERVATION - I suspect this will play into a Fed decision to leave the prime rate where it is until its next meeting and decision point.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

***
“US to station nuclear weapons in UK to counter threat from Russia, - The Telegraph

Warheads to be housed at RAF Lakenheath for first time in 15 years, Pentagon documents reveal, as Moscow warns of ‘escalation’.

OBSERVATION - Combine this with the warnings over the past few weeks from European nations that a war with Russia is coming and coming soon and red flags should start to pop up.

***
The Army and Navy are tossing its mandate for potential recruits to have a high school diploma or GED certificate to enlist in the service, in one of the most dramatic moves yet in the escalating recruiting crisis hitting the entire Defense Department.

On Thursday, the services announced that individuals may enlist without those previously required education certifications if they ship to basic training this fiscal year, which ends Oct. 1.

Recruits must also be at least 18 years old and otherwise qualify for a job in the active-duty Army. They also must score at least a 50 on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery, or ASVAB, an SAT-style quiz to measure a potential recruit’s academic ability.

A 50 on the test is a relatively low score, with 31 being the minimum to qualify for service.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/06/24/army-drops-requirement-high-school-diploma-amid-recruiting-crisis.html#

OBSERVATION - An important standard has dropped - not that HS diplomas are worth that much any more in todays indoctrination over education environment where may HS grads can’t even read their diplomas. Our military has gotten very high tech - even infantry has to have a good head on their shoulders in today combat environment.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

The federal government has changed the regulations that require informed consent for medical experiments. If a review board decides that informing people of risks will interfere with medical research, it can waive the requirement.

The rules change is said to include only “minimal risk” studies, but then again, we have been told repeatedly that medical procedures like getting a COVID vaccine are risk-free, and things like puberty blockers are “completely reversible,” so you might think twice about their definition of “minimal risk.”

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/01/25/federal-regulations-drop-informed-consent-rules-in-medical-studies-n607362

OBSERVATION - Nuremberg codes explicitly prohibit waiving informed consent for medical research of any kind. Slippery slope - some medical researcher wants to test something, but doesn’t want to go thru the hassle of obtaining informed consent - then define it as ‘minimal risk’ and screw the subjects of the test.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****

Too much going on to comprehensively note. Much political activity is being covered under other subject areas.

Take a note of the article linked under Venezuela below - provides insight on leftist political operations that are also in play here in the US.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****
WH staffers are leaving only to join the biden campaign. Not an unusual occurrence.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick:
“Every American citizen has to ask: Why is Joe Biden allowing 8 million people to come here? It’s because they have a long game. The Marxists Leftist Democrats...they see this as potential voters.”

***
John Kirby: “This idea that there’s no vetting and there’s no proper immigration enforcement going on at the border just does not comport with reality.”

***
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told House GOP conference members that a rumored bipartisan Senate deal involving Ukraine aid and southern border policy would be “dead on arrival” in the lower chamber.

“If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway,” Johnson wrote in his letter, Politico reported.

OBSERVATION - One of these ‘rumors’ is the allowance of 5000 illegal entrances per day before ‘shutting the border down’ This comes to a whopping 1.8 million plus illegals penetrating the country per year. Those numbers greatly exceed the Trump and previous years numbers by a huge margin.

***
In Friday news dump, CBP officially reports 302,034 migrant encounters in December, the highest month ever recorded. CBP also reports Border Patrol arrested 19 people on the FBI terror watchlist in December, bringing the total to 50 arrests for fiscal year 2024 so far.

OBSERVATION - Under leaked Senate plans, those 5000/day would round up to some 150,000 illegal entrances per month. Think - that ‘seems’ to be a small number when compared to the 300,000+. During the Trump years for comparison, monthly numbers were generally BELOW 50,000 per month (this would be met in 10 days under the senate plan), with one spike of 132,856 in May 2019 - still less than this senate ‘plan’.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

*****

More cities have lost power and heat across Russia as the cold spell continues and substandard maintenance of systems are being exposed.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow

Russia launched small attacks (company sized and smaller) along the southern and eastern fronts, the largest concentrated around Avdiivka. The return of the dominant Russian artillery is also evident in the increasing numbers and intensity of attacks.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

Ukraine is having more and more success in taking down Russian drones via electronic warfare. This trend is likely to continue. Russia, meanwhile, has been putting increased efforts in defeating the small drones that have been causing havoc in its ranks. So far they haven’t found the right mix and it seems that Ukraine is one step ahead of them in producing jam-proof systems.

Europe / NATO General –

The upcoming European Parliament elections will see a “sharp turn to the right” as populist parties are projected to be victorious in at least nine EU member states and come in second or third in a further nine countries.

According to an analysis of opinion polls in each EU member state in combination with statistical modeling based on the previous performance of national parties, the globalist European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank has predicted that right-wing populist parties will come out on top in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia in the European Parliament elections in June.

Meanwhile, the report predicted that populist parties will also make big gains in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden, where they are on pace to either come in second or third place in the votes.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/01/26/sharp-turn-to-the-right-populist-parties-projected-to-win-eu-parliament-elections-in-nine-nations/

OBSERVATION - Resulting push back on EU’s taking lead on various WEF/globalist agendas that are crushing the peoples of Europe. This being seen most recently in the massive farmer protests that have broken out across the continent as well as protests against unrestrained immigration of middle east and north africans.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage videos released by Hamas.

- ICJ ruling reverberations spreading

- UNRWA underfire for employees that actively participated in the Oct 7 events and accusations that UNRWA has long known and supported Hamas with personnel and supplies/equipment.

- US naval actions to protect shipping thru the Red Sea are failing, and failing spectacularly.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.

Hamas released a hostage video. The hostages shown in the clip are 19-year old Karina Ariev, 31-year old Doron Steinbrecher and 19-year old Daniella Glib.

Some 20 women are among the 130 or so remaining hostages in Gaza. Hamas refused to release them, saying that even those who were not soldiers were once in the Israeli military. Hamas has also refused to allow Red Cross visits, in violation of international law, and broke a deal this week to prove that medicines sent from Israel via Qatar had actually been delivered to the hostages.

There are reports that the female hostages are being raped by Hamas terrorists and otherwise sexually assaulted and degraded. This is standard practice under islamic rules of war.

***
Two diplomats at the UN tell there are active discussions about bringing yesterday’s ICJ ruling to the Security Council to pass a resolution enforcing the provisional measures

***
The US State Department halted funding for UNRWA pending an investigation into its involvement in the October 7th massacre. Britain, Australia, Canada and Italy announced on Saturday the suspension of their funding to UNRWA as well.

The UNRWA said Friday it had fired the employees in question.

Hussein al-Sheikh, secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) said on Saturday on X.

“We call on countries that announced the cessation of their support for UNRWA to immediately reverse their decision,” he said.

This scandal is growing to suggest/claim that UNRWA has known and condoned its employee’s act participation in Hamas and may have contributed resources to the terrorist organization.

***
The World Court ordered Israel on Friday to prevent acts of genocide against the Palestinians and do more to help civilians, although it stopped short of ordering a ceasefire as requested by South Africa.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Thursday that more than 100 Hamas terrorists had been caught in the previous 36 hours, as the IDF pushes forward in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.

“Hamas is collapsing into its own tunnels that it painstakingly dug. Every place it thought would be a trap for IDF soldiers becomes an area where we hit it,” Gallant told soldiers serving in the elite Yahalom combat engineering unit.
“In the past day and a half, we have over 100 captives, some of them who came up from underground, in the Khan Yunis area and also in other places, because they realize that they can’t fight against the IDF,” he added.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Marshall Islands-flagged tanker MARLIN LUANDA reportedly on fire and requiring assistance after a Houthi missile strike. Reporting indicates the tanker is chartered to Trafigura and carrying highly-flammable naphtha. In an update on Saturday, Trafigura said all crew were safe and that the fire in a cargo tank had been put out. The ship was now sailing towards a safe harbour, the company said. The ship was sailing in the Gulf of Aden before the attack.

This engagement happened in the same area as the incident on Thursday in which two US-flagged and US-owned container ships and the USS Gravely were forced to beat an ignominious retreat out of missile range.
US led airstrikes on Houthi positions in Ra’s Issa, Hudaydah, Yemen, reportedly in response to the Houthi attacks.

***
The Islamic Resistance in a statement will not comply with the US and Iraqi negotiations, and will carry on with attacking US forces in Iraq and Syria untill a full coalition forces withdrawal.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

The US mission to protect shipping thru the Red Sea has become a dumpster fire. A cluster of unbelievable magnitude.

The Houthis have successfully expanded the battlespace to include the northern half of the Gulf of Aden. They are also becoming more successful at hitting ships in spite of the presence of a US carrier strike group in the area and even dedicated escorts. In fact, the successful challenge of a US escorted pair of cargo ships that forced them to retreat is disgusting. The US navy is losing to the Houthi.

The US is failing in its efforts to enforce freedom of navigation. Its timidity and weakness has only serve to embolden the Houthi’s - as I’ve repeatedly pointed out.

Iraq -

The Pentagon pushed back on reports that the U.S. is withdrawing from Iraq as the two countries announced a joint military commission focused on the next stage of its mission to defeat ISIS.

U.S. officials on Thursday announced the launch of the Higher Military Commission, or HMC. The working group plans to assess the U.S.-Iraq military partnership based on threats posed by ISIS, operational and environmental requirements and capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces, a senior defense official told reporters in a briefing.

“The HMC meeting is not in negotiation about the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq,” the defense official said. “The United States and the coalition are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government to fight ISIS.”

OBSERVATION - The momentum is gathering - the US is going to be headed out before the end of the year IMHO.

Venezuela -

“The second to worst worst thing that can happen to a civil society is civil war. The only thing worse than that is what Venezuela is living with right now, a dictatorship in which there is no hope of democratic change or equal justice. In Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela his voice is the only one that matters. It has been that way since he took over as the hand-picked successor to communist blowhard Hugo Chavez in 2013.”

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/01/26/venezuelas-dictator-rigs-the-next-election-is-violence-the-only-path-forward-n607782

OBSERVATION - Take a deep breath and read the article twice. Notice any parallels to the US? It reads as the democrat play book for 2024. Hardly needs further commentary. Read it.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
According to a new poll, nearly 90 percent of ivy league grads support the “strict” rationing of gas, meat and electricity to fight climate change.
That’s 90%! “Strict rationing!”

The poll, conducted by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, is titled “Them vs. U.S.: The two Americas and how the nation’s elite is out of touch with average Americans.”

It was intended to assess the beliefs of “elites.”
According to the College Fix, the poll was comprised of two surveys of 1,000 folks each conducted in late 2023, and the “Elites” were defined as “people having at least one post-graduate degree, earning at least $150,000 annually, and living in high-population density areas.”

The Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CUP) found that:
“An astonishing 77% of the Elites – including almost 90% of the Elites who graduated from the top universities – favor rationing of energy, gas, and meat to combat climate change.”

This is starkly at odds with the will of all Americans, 63% of whom oppose this policy. It is shameful and embarrassing that so many “elite” Americans have drunk the Kool-Aid — and bent the knee at the altar of progressivism. These are folks that would be more at home attending the World Economic Forum in Davos than a country music concert in Des Moines. And would then fly back to the U.S. to snob the rest of us and bitch about the carbon footprints of lawnmowers and farmers.

Incredibly, CUP also found that nearly six in 10 “elites” say there is too much individual freedom in America.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/01/poll_finds_elites_want_strict_rationing_of_gas_meat_electricity_freedom.html

OBSERVATION - These silver spoon raised individuals have not clue, given that they expect to maintain their standard of living that they would deny to us peons. They really don’t know what it means to work for a living or how their actions/decisions affect others around them. They have become the epitome of narcissistic arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

This has been out there a few days, but the volume of material I was dealing with at the time forced me to back burner it.

A huge MAGA truck convoy called ‘Army of God’ is heading toward the southern border as experts ring the alarms over the border crisis after a record 302,000 migrants crossed over into the US.
The massive convoy of truckers is making its way to three migrant hotspots across three states in a bid to shame the White House into tackling the worsening crisis.

OBSERVATION - Symbolism, not to say this rally isn’t worth it, but it does serve warning to the regime that TX’s fight against the illegal tsunami has growing, national level support. There have been concerns that the regime will try to manipulate this into a second j6 style ‘insurrection’. It would be a challenge to do so. Their best play would be to ignore it and have their MSM allies do the same.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

This report has been out there a few days, able now to circle back to evaluating it more.

Ten former FBI officials signed a letter describing the present danger the U.S. faces from President Joe Biden’s border policy and raising serious concerns about a “specific threat that may be one of the most pernicious ever to menace the United States.”

The letter was signed last week and sent to leaders in the House and Senate before it was shared by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Thursday. In it, the former FBI officials address a “new and unfamiliar” threat facing the country as “military aged men from across the globe” easily enter the U.S. “across a border that has been accurately advertised around the world as largely unprotected with ready access.”

“It would be difficult to overstate the danger represented by the presence inside our borders of what is comparatively a multi-division army of young single adult males from hostile nations and regions whose background, intent, or allegiance is completely unknown,” the letter states.

“In light of such a daunting, unprecedented penetration by uninvited foreign actors, it is reasonable to assert that the country possesses dramatically diminished national security at this time,” the letter continues. “The nation’s military and laws and other natural protective barriers that have provided traditional security in the past have been thoroughly circumvented over the past three years.”

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/01/the-country-has-been-invaded-former-fbi-officials-issue-grave-warning-on-bidens-open-border/

OBSERVATION - There have been many voices raising warnings of the clear and present danger from these military aged males that have been allowed to enter this country and roam around unmonitored. Whether or not they are going to operate under the Deep Swamp’s direction, or independently is unknown. I’ll note again, the purchase of weapons, ammo and gear by obscure govt agencies for their own ‘security’ elements - in far excess of any conceivable requirement - may be a source to arm these illegals to do the dirty work of the marxist democrats across the country.

***
RUMINT that Houthi rebels have engaged in covert discussions with Al-Qaeda, exploring potential collaboration on coordinated actions, including suicide attacks against Western targets, according to western media sources.

OBSERVATION - The demonstrated weakness of US foreign policy and military application was bound to generate potential action like this. AQ and even ISIS has been recovering over the past three years of the biden regime’s blundering foreign and in particular middle east policies. The world is becoming less safe.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

***

Going into this week’s two-day policy meeting, which wraps Wednesday afternoon in Washington, investors are assigning roughly even odds to the prospect that the US central bank will start lowering borrowing costs at its next decision in March.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The stage is set for the Fed to take steps toward cutting rates in coming months. We expect the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate target range in March as it attempts to stick a soft landing.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-decision-could-prelude-210000975.html

OBSERVATION - The effort to spin this as a ‘soft landing’ continues. I cannot help but to view these reports as putting lipstick on a pig - given there are so many other factors that are converging at an unprecedented rate to screw such a ‘soft landing’ propaganda to aid biden’s campaign.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Remember when folks like Fauci were arrogantly promoting the jab and condemning the unjabbed - seemingly doing so expecting no fallout. Well in an interview returning to the light of day, Fauci spills the beans on it all -

“Once people feel empowered and protected legally, you are going to have schools, universities and colleges say, ‘you want to come to this college, buddy? You’re gonna get vaccinated ...
It’s been proven that when you make it difficult for people in their lives, they lose their ideological bull**** and they get vaccinated.”

OBSERVATION - Never, never forget what these medical tyrants did to Americans (and others across the world). Give no quarter or forgiveness as they now circle back with their empty apologies for their now totally repudiated actions THAT THEY NEW WERE LIES TO BEGIN WITH.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****
Donald Trump’s legal team is set to use a previously undisclosed “conflict of interest” as grounds for appealing a recent verdict that orders the former president to pay advice columnist E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million. Trump attorney Alina Habba told the New York Post she was previously unaware that Manhattan federal Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the case, worked with Roberta Kaplan, Carroll’s attorney, at the Paul Weiss Rifkin, Wharton & Garrison law firm in the early 1990s. Habba says neither the judge nor Roberta Kaplan revealed this professional history. “It was never disclosed. It’s insane and so incestuous,” Habba said, asserting the non-disclosure counts as an ethics violation. Early in her career, Roberta worked as an associate at the firm during the same period as Judge Kaplan, who was a partner until his 1994 appointment to the federal bench by then-President Bill Clinton.

OBSERVATION - These kinds of links are popping up all over in the various Trump prosecutions. While these original trials now stand a stronger likelihood of being tossed, they serve the liberal purpose of casting poop on Trump as the appeals will only get marginal at best coverage.

***
The Arizona Republican Party selected a new Trump-supported chair on Saturday after the former chair resigned following a bribery controversy.

Ms. Swoboda was elected at the annual GOP meeting held at Dream City Church in north Phoenix on Saturday which was attended by over 1,000 people. However, the sudden resignation of former Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit due to bribery allegations triggered an urgent election to select a new chair.

According to Sen. Wendy Rogers (R-Ariz.), Ms. Swoboda secured 67 percent of votes to emerge victorious and become the new chair of the Arizona Republican Party.

OBSERVATION - There is a new reason for hope that AZ republicans will regain some backbone against the democrat corruption machine that has managed to take power.

However, I still want to know WHO was backing the $$$$ that DeWit waved under Lake’s nose to encourage her to step out of the Senate race.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****

Biden continues to be let out to publicly embarrass himself with his ranting political speeches that degrade into incoherent ramblings of unintelligent or understandable words.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

Tensions within the Oklahoma GOP have reached a boiling point as the state party’s leadership passed a resolution on Saturday to condemn U.S. Senator James Lankford for his involvement in an outrageous border security deal with Democrats.

The resolution, passed with immediate effect, states that the party will withhold all support for Senator Lankford until he ceases his involvement with the proposed legislation.

The resolution cites several concerns, notably Senator Lankford’s collaboration with Senator Chuck Schumer on a deal allegedly permitting 5,000 illegal immigrants per day to enter and work in the United States. This figure translates to approximately 155,000 illegal immigrants each month, amounting to an annual total of 1.8 million.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/oklahoma-gop-passes-resolution-condemn-censure-sen-james/

OBSERVATION - Good call by the OK GOP - Lankford needs to be primaries out of office at the next available election - or forced to resign by what ever means necessary. This abomination of a immigration ‘reform’ plan should never see the light of day.

***

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson implemented a policy that gives illegal migrants a 60-day shelter limit before they are forced to take up space elsewhere. The city’s sixteen aldermen, including close allies of Johnson, sent a letter to the mayor urging him to terminate his policy, claiming it “poses a significant threat to the health and safety of new arrivals.”

The policy was due to take effect in mid-January but was delayed due to the city’s wicked cold temperatures.

At least 2,000 illegal migrants are set to be evicted if the policy is enforced on February 1. That number is expected to grow to about 6,000 people by the following week. The letter argues the city must delay evictions until the warmer months and instead focus on helping illegal aliens become independent.
Since 2022, at least 608 buses have arrived from Texas by Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), with more than 34,000 illegal migrants landing in Chicago. As of January 16, there are 28 shelters in operation within the city, holding roughly 14,967 immigrants. On February 1, 7,842 illegal immigrants will receive eviction notices.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/01/27/dem-chicago-mayor-sides-with-the-right-n2634263

OBSERVATION - Forcing liberal ‘sanctuary’ cities and states to confront the realities of the illegal tsunami that is affecting border states is one unexpected consequence of biden’s policies. The Chicago mayor is also facing heat from the predominately black community over diversion of ‘their’ social welfare programs and perks and giving them over to these illegal aliens in a preferential manner.

***
Chicago isn’t the only blue city suffering the consequences of their sanctuary city status and support for the regimes open border policy.

The City of Denver will begin ordering foreign national migrants in its shelter system to leave on Feb. 5 after they have spent a certain number of days in facilities, according to multiple reports.

Denver is the top destination, per capita, for foreign migrants who have crossed the country’s international border with Mexico and been ferried to their jurisdiction by buses paid for by the State of Texas, with over 40,000 having arrived, according to a report by NBC News. Due to overcrowding, the city will begin evicting individuals who have remained in the system for 42 days, according to a Jan. 17 report by Denverite, a local news organization.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/27/denver-cracks-down-taking-more-migrants-per-capita-anywhere-else/

OBSERVATION - Of course the big question for both cities is just WHERE will these kicked out illegals go? Secondary and tertiary results of the open border dumpster fire limits that.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

*****
Logistics –

Two years of fighting in Ukraine have destroyed the Russian tank force. This was unexpected, as was the Russian inability to replace their tank losses. Ukraine’s success against Russian tanks and armored vehicles revived predictions that tanks were obsolete. Tanks are still relevant, and the Russian losses were the result of poor employment of armored units as well as design features of Russian tanks that make them much more vulnerable than Western tanks like the American M1, German Leopard or Israeli Merkava.

Most Russian armored vehicles were lost while they were on the move, or stationery without adequate infantry support. The first Russian armored units going into Ukraine were told the population would be friendly or neutral. The reality was that the Ukrainians were well armed, hostile, and using tactics the Russians were unaware of and unprepared to deal with. As a result, thousands of Russian vehicles were destroyed in the first month, most of them armored, including some of the most modern Russian tanks plus some ancient models taken from storage facilities for obsolete tanks that might be useful in an emergency. The Ukraine War proved to be that emergency.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htarm/articles/20240128.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow

4 of 8 Shahed drones were shot down overnight. Russian army also launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Poltava region and 3 S-300 at Donetsk region which were not intercepted.

Russian claimed overnight to have captured Tabaivka of Kharkiv region, northern end of the eastern front.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

There are increasing reports of Ukraine giving up ground to Russian attacks along various portions of the front. A major contributor to these losses is the shortage of artillery rounds that Ukraine has relied on over the past year to interdict and stop Russian forces. Russia has been able to rebuild some of its artillery corps and become more aggressive in the absence of devastating Ukraine counter battery fire adding to the russian attack successes.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNRWA faces additional scrutiny over its affiliations with Hamas.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.

***
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on donor states to guarantee the flow of vital aid to Gaza after several halted funding to the agency, UNRWA, over Israeli claims that some of its staff participated in the October 7 attacks.

UNRWA said on Friday it had fired several employees over Israel’s unspecified accusations about the involvement of some of its staff in Hamas’s October 7 attack.

Donors including Germany, Britain, Italy, Australia and Finland on Saturday followed the lead of the United States, which said it had suspended additional funding to the agency over the accusations.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called on UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini to quit after saying earlier the body “must be replaced with agencies dedicated to genuine peace and development”.

https://www.newsmax.com/headline/israel-intensive-fighting/2024/01/28/id/1151255/

OBSERVATION - There were those who were active participants, and there were likely many more who were passive participants, providing support to Hamas. Those ‘employees’ need to be gone as well. Heck, dismantle UNRWA all together as an unredeemably corrupted organization.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.

Fighting has intensified in N Gaza as IDF encounters more pockets of Hamas forces as it continues to work to clean up the sector.

Reports are indicating that as much as 80% of Hama’s 300 mile tunnel network are still intact. An additional 40% are estimated to have been severely damaged. Since the start of the war, IDF has destroyed tens of miles of tunnels, but reports are they keep discovering networks they were not aware of. IDF and government predicted from the start that the war would take a year, planning by then to destroy the entire network as part of the goal to disable Hamas’ military abilities and its control of Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

The Israeli army is conducting military exercises to “raise readiness” on the border with Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iranian-backed militias targeted three U.S. military bases in the past few hours,. They attacked the Tanf base twice and the Shaddadi base in northeastern Syria.

***
Rashad al-Alimi, the internationally-recognized President of Yemen, has called on the United States and Saudi Arabia to take decisive action to “eliminate” the military capabilities of Houthi rebels. “Every time a step is taken towards peace, the Huthis and their Iranian supporters create a new problem.”

***
A British warship, the HMS Diamond, repelled a drone attack on Saturday from Yemen’s Houthi group in the Red Sea, British officials said.
“Deploying her Sea Viper missile system, Diamond destroyed a drone targeting her with no injuries or damage sustained to Diamond or her crew,” the Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Sunday.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

Houthi - the headline almost pushing the rest of the Gaza war off the radar. One doesn’t win wars by fighting defensively - you got to go on the offense. The US and allies haven’t - probably in large part by the biden regime’s desire not to anger Iran. Soon one of these missiles or drones are going to get past one of these warship’s defenses, just like they did to strike ‘protected’ cargo ships.

Iran –

Iran has reportedly achieved a significant milestone in its space program by launching three satellites simultaneously using the Simorgh (Phoenix) satellite carrier rocket, as per Iranian state media on Sunday.

The two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh (Phoenix) rocket carried the satellites and placed them in a minimum orbit of 450 kilometers (280 miles). There have been five consecutive failed launches for the Simorgh program, a satellite-carrying rocket.
The Mahda satellite, which weighs about 32 kilograms and was developed by Iran’s space agency, is designed to test advanced satellite subsystems, the official IRNA news agency said.
Isa Zarepour, Iran’s minister of information and communications technology, said Mahda has already sent signals back to Earth.
The other two, Kayhan 2 and Hatef, weigh less than 10 kilograms each and are designed to test space-based positioning technology and narrow-band communications, IRNA added.

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-launches-three-satellites-simultaneously-for-first-time/a-68105298?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

OBSERVATION - Iran is continuing its technological advancements, particularly in the realm of missile/rocket technology. Gone are the days of laughing at Iran’s efforts to build military parity with the region.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****

Post Davos ripples of distain from the elites still traveling outward. Another interesting usage of the phrase ‘protecting democracy’ put forth by the elites in regards to their definition of ‘misinformation’. One has to ask - who the heck elected them to be our representatives. The answer is NO ONE. Remember that as the term ‘protect democracy’ gets floated around.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

No significant changes in the standoff. The closure has significantly cut down illegal penetration into Texas, with a lot of it being shifted to the west and into NM, AZ and CA. All three are leftist run and unlikely to take aggressive measures to protect its citizens like TX.

***
See Terrorism warning below. Attached to it may well be a rise in pro-hamas and associated pro-islam protests across the country in opposition to any US airstrikes on Iran. These protests could spring up quickly and spontaneously at first, with larger and more organized protests and potential rioting after a few days. Political targets across the spectrum - no one specific party to be singled out, though suspect that the preponderance will be directed against the biden regimen since they are calling the military shots.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.

Warning - impending military action against Iranian assets for the overnight attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

***

Market watching fed actions in the meetings starting tomorrow.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) departed San Diego, Calif., last week to begin its deployment. Currently listed in the Mid-Pacific, likely headed west. With it are the following -

USS Lake Erie (CG-70)
Destroyer Squadron 23 consisting of -
- USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), homeported at Naval Station Everett, Wash.
- USS Halsey (DDG-97), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
- USS Daniel Inouye (DDG-118),

Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****

Biden thinks his son is buried outside of Paris and Trump refused to honor his grave. Biden is mentally compromised.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called for a “meaningful pathway to citizenship” on Monday night amid efforts by President Joe Biden and Congressional leadership to try and reach a bipartisan national security deal that would fund border enforcement efforts and unlock military aid for Ukraine.

During an interview with CNN’s Laura Coates on Monday, Harris discussed the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, referring to it as a “long-standing problem.”

“There’s no question that our immigration system is broken,” Harris said. “And so much so, that as the first bill that we offered after our inauguration, was to fix the immigration system, which included what we must do to create a pathway for citizenship and to put the resources that are needed into the border. But sadly, people on the other side of the aisle have been playing politics with this issue.”

OBSERVATION - Clear example of the employment of the Hegelian Dialectic, in which the crisis is created and the ‘solution’ offered comes from those who created the crisis in the first place.

***

Two articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas were released by House Republicans on Sunday.

Republicans said they will quickly move forward to try to oust Mayorkas from office.

OBSERVATION - This, sadly, is mostly for show since the Senate will not convict and Mayorkas will remain in his position. It does serve to bolster the republicans claims of border treason by the administration in the upcoming elections. Recent polls indicate that the public sees the border as its most significant concern as the complications of handing the 6 million plus illegals that have come across the border start negatively impacting blue cities and states.

China –

Debt-laden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.

Judge Linda Chan said “enough is enough” after the troubled developer repeatedly failed to come up with a plan to restructure its debts.

The firm has been the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with more than $300bn (£236bn) of debt.

When Evergrande defaulted two years ago it sent shockwaves through global financial markets.

Evergrande’s executive director, Shawn Siu, described the decision as “regrettable”, but said the company would continue to operate in mainland China.

While any potential impact of the ruling on Evergrande’s home building business is currently unclear, the crisis at the company has already left many home buyers waiting for their new properties.

Beijing has previously sought to temper public concern about the property crisis as people have taken to Chinese social media sites such as Weibo to share their frustrations about developers like Evergrande.

The court’s decision is also likely to send further ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.

China’s property sector contributes roughly a quarter of the world’s second biggest economy.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67562522?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

OBSERVATION - This is another big hit to the Chinese economy already suffering substantial other woes. The decision as noted affects mostly Hong Kong, but will clearly ripple thru the Chinese economy as well.

North/South Korea –

The New York Times is reporting that the Kim Jong-un government has plans for escalation, saying that it will soon launch some kind of lethal military action against the south, but will still seek to avoid a full-scale war.

“North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted to a policy of open hostility” U.S. officials say.

US officials indicated the recent spate of more aggressive statements from Kim should be taken seriously. “While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation,” the report continued.

“They pointed to North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 as an example,” NYT noted. “The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides as well as civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.”

Something which came dangerously close to the 2010 deadly exchange of fire actually happened earlier this month. On Jan.5 North Korea fired over 200 artillery rounds off its West coast which landed near the South’s Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong Islands

OBSERVATION - Taking a deep breath. Very dangerous game of chicken as once you take lethal action, it is very hard to put the genie back in the bottle and prevent full on war.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

*****

Economic Impact –

Russian claims that they continue to sell their oil at pre-sanctions levels turned out to be optimistic. The problems are that Russia didn’t build pipelines to its two largest customers, China, and India, before the Ukraine war, and now can’t because it lacks the means given the impact of Western sanctions. Those sanctions also mean higher costs for delivering oil to existing customers, plus customers now demand lower prices because of the sanctions risk. In the worst cases Russian receives half the world price for their oil. In the best situations there is still a ten or 20 percent discount. There is a similar situation with shipments of liquid natural gas/LNG.

The worst aspect of all this is that Russian oil sales are now barely profitable. Russia depends on those profits to pay for oil and gas exploration and the construction of new oil and gas extraction and delivery systems, plus maintenance of existing oil and gas infrastructure. The government is so desperate that they have raised prices for Russian customers using oil and natural gas. This adds to the already high inflation in Russia and is very unpopular with the Russian public. Even that is not enough, and Russia’s gas and oil companies continue to suffer enormous losses. In 2023 the losses amounted to $10 billion and in 2024 there are expected to be similar losses. The national oil company cannot maintain, improve, or expand its extraction and delivery systems without those profits.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20240129.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 8 Shahed drones, Russian army also launched Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 S-300 missiles.

Ukraine launched drones at the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, but they reportedly didn’t hit their target.

Russia continues to launch large ‘meat assaults’ in the Avdiivka region, suffering heavy casualties and achieving no gains. Ukraine announced a counter attack in the Avdiivka region, conflict still ongoing and no reports of any success for failure.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

Seeing elevated reports of Russian killed/wounded in recent days coming out of the Ukraine govt. These are estimates however, the preponderance of Russian attacks across all fronts have been the previously noted “meat attacks” - human wave assaults poorly supported (if at all ) by any tanks, armor or artillery. The lead elements of these assaults are Z units composed of conscripted prisoners trying to earn their freedom from their jail sentences. They are often reportedly followed by ‘enforcer’ elements - shooting any Z troopers who attempt to retreat under fire.

Europe / NATO General –

Brussels has drawn up a plan to sabotage Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán blocks a €50bn aid package to Ukraine this week, according to a secret internal document that was released to the press that lays out Budapest’s economic weaknesses and how to exploit them.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNRWA scandal continues.

- “Islamic Resistance” attack kills three US servicemen in Jordan, injures dozens others.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.

***
UNRWA warns - “Our services in Gaza may stop within a month”

On Friday, in response to allegations that employees of the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) had been involved in Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, the State Department announced that it had “temporarily paused additional funding” for the United Nations agency. The funding pause, however, applies only to new and additional funding, not funding already obligated before the pause went into effect on Wednesday, a State Department spokesperson told Pluribus.
NOTE - This is essentially continuing the funding for the corrupt UNRWA operations in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.

Heavy IAF airstrikes in N Gaza overnight.

Hamas managed to shoot two (2) rockets, one shot down, the other impacted in uninhabited area.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli army launched raids on the Damascus countryside a short while ago. Syrian sources report aerial bombardment targeted farms extending between the areas of Aqraba and Sayyida Zeinab, south of Damascus.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Houthis announced the firing of a missile at the US warship “Lewis P. Puller” in the Gulf of Aden

See Iran below on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attack that killed 3 US service members in Jordan.

Yemen’s Houthi delegation meets in Moscow with the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, where they discussed the situation in the region as well as the importance of intensifying efforts to pressure the United States and Israel to stop war in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi top negotiator says on messaging platform X.
NOTE - Russia/Iranian ties have increased since the start of the Gaza war, and as one of Iran’s proxy forces, the Houthi are welcomed into that increased cooperation forum.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

US weakness has cost US lives. Now, in addition to the Houthi holding the US navy at bay, so called “islamic resistance” forces have killed US soldiers. US desires to keep Iran happy are now costing us dearly and this will only make matters worse.

Iran – Potential war with US developing.

This is what happens when you try to coddle favor with a declared enemy of the US and what $6 Billion in pay offs buys.

U.S. military announced three American troops were killed and as many as 50 injured in a drone attack in Jordan on Sunday. The service personnel were sleeping in a canvas tent when the attack occurred.

“Tower 22”, the U.S. base in NE Jordan overlooks a Syrian refugee camp called Rukban, where 15,000 people have been living for years. There are approximately 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel deployed to the base, conducting a number of key support functions, including support to the coalition for the lasting defeat of ISIS. It is also near the Al-Tanf Garrison, where a couple hundred U.S. troops are based.

The group that will claim responsibility calls themselves the “Islamic Resistance of Iraq,” but that’s really a post Oct 7 umbrella group of IRGC sponsored militias. The actual attackers were likely Kateeb Hizballah with support of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujab and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq.

Tehran has claimed that it was not involved in the drone attack. Biden said the attack was carried out by “radical Iran-backed militant groups,” while many US politicians blamed Tehran directly. UK Foreign Minister David Cameron similarly pointed to the Islamic Republic, urging it to “de-escalate in the region.”

“As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding the war crimes and genocide,” Kanaani said. “They do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran. These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”

Biden promised a response to the deaths of Americans. “We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - This attack doesn’t surprise me. As I’ve been stating, the US has failed to respond to the now over 100 attacks on US personnel/bases in the Syria/Iraq and now Jordan region in a substantial manner. It was only a matter of time before they managed to score a jackpot.

This attack was done under the cover of the Gaza war and the “independent” response of Iranian backed militia groups. I’ve noted that long before the Gaza conflict, Iran and Syria were working on plans to drive US forces out of Syria and Iraq using these same militias.

Iran can only hide behind the curtain of ‘independent’ operations of these militias. IRGC officers and support are present in all these units, as well as supplying the weapons and munitions - including the drone(s) used overnight.

There is a great deal of RUMINT regarding IRGC leadership elements scrambling to relocate to avoid US airstrikes. Further rumors that even some Syrian and Russian advisors are relocating as well.

It was noted last evening by OSINT folks that at least 10 US air refueling tankers took off towards Europe and possible middle eastern destinations. The numbers were out of the ordinary though some seem to think it is part of a normal rotation of assets or support for the ongoing NATO exercise. No air tankers were noted on any return trip to the US,, making the rotation theory shaky. The NATO exercise started last week, so why now the surge in air tankers? Were they ‘dragging’ US heavy bombers like the B1 and B2?

Many voices in congress are calling for a military strike on Iran in response to the attack. biden called his security council together over night to decide on responses to the attack.

Worst case scenario - biden attempts to conduct a limited attack on Iranian forces but his bungling national defense team screws it up again and results in closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a lot more US casualties. Iran could also use the attack to justify going the last distance and enriching uranium to the 90% level needed for a bomb. Even worse case scenario - setting a bomb off against US forces. That would literally cause the region to blow up (no pun intended) as Israel would then respond to stop further nuclear developments and Iran would unleash Hezbollah.

Any US response that isn’t massive and through will only confirm to the mullahs that the US is now a paper tiger, weak and unwilling to put up a meaningful fight. Thus encouraging more emboldened attacks.

See also Terrorism and CW2 above for more potential Iranian actions against the US.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday that he has proposed the signing of a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan, pending a comprehensive peace treaty between the arch-foe Caucasus neighbours.

Yerevan and Baku have fought two wars – in 2020 and in the 1990s – over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan recaptured in a lightning offensive last year.

“We have presented Azerbaijan with a proposal for a mutual arms control mechanism and the signing of a non-aggression pact if the signature of a peace treaty encounters delays,” Pashinyan said in a speech during an Armenian Army Day celebration event.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3250092/armenian-pm-proposes-non-aggression-pact-azerbaijan?utm_source=rss_feed

OBSERVATION - Russia essentially abandoned Armenia due to the Ukraine war, leaving it to flap in the wind when facing a much larger Azeri army. Azerbaijan may or may not in the long term, honor this pact if they sign it - being islamic, they tend to redefine and honor treaties as they see fit.

Misc of Note –

Folks January is almost closed out and the situation here in the US is coming unglued at an unprecedented pace. Now facing a potential regional conflict with Iran and its proxy forces, we are not prepared to do what is necessary to put them in their box, and this will cost us dearly in the near and long term.

We also faced a kickoff of a potential ‘hot’ civil war situation in TX - outcome still up in the air.

Lawfare against Trump has exposed corruption on the part of prosecutors and judges at a previously inconceivable level.

Chaos is permitting other insidious actions by the regime to move forward, such as knifing European allies in the back by pausing the LNG promises and development.

This is a whole years worth of stuff - plus a lot of other items I haven’t mentioned - crammed into one month. The year is still young.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
Thousands of tractors are blockading all of Paris as the French farmers are saying NO to climate policies. 15 000 police have been mobilized to stop the farmers from entering the city. Those police have encountered manure spreading equipment - with appropriate results. Taxi drivers and other business sectors such a truckers are joining in support. The 8 highways leading to the capital are blocked by hundreds of tractors for an indefinite period.
The reported goal of this stage of protests is to cut the city off from supplies for at least 3 days.

OBSERVATION - Farmer protests continue in multiple other counties in Europe. IMHO the WEF/globalist assault on farming/ranching all in the name of saving the planet from global warming is to create a famine that will be used to kill off useless biomass (humans) and control the survivors via control of the food. Govt attacks against agriculture are ramping up all around the globe, and not just in Europe.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !

No significant changes in the standoff. See “Illegal Immigration” below for recent poll numbers indicating substantial support by the citizens for TX and the actions it has taken.

IMHO, with the growing crisis against Iran, I don’t anticipate any aggressive actions by the regime against TX, mostly political posturing and more generally empty threats.

***
Pro-hamas protestors heckled pelosi outside her home in Kalifornia. She promptly responded by telling them to “go back to China”. She also demanded an investigation into whether Russia was behind the protests.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.

CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

***
Federal authorities caught an Al-Shabaab terrorist at the U.S. southern border and released him into the country, where he roamed freely for nearly a year before being arrested in Minnesota just days ago.

The Terrorist Screening Center “deemed him a ‘mismatch’” after running his name through the terror watchlist, according to the memo, which was sent to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials.
However, on January 18, 2024, the Terrorist Screening Center “made a redetermination” that the individual was “a confirmed member of al-Shabaab” and was involved in the use, manufacture or transport of explosives or firearms, the memo states. Two days later, ICE nabbed the al-Shabaab member in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

OBSERVATION - That gives a lot of time for organizing and coordinating terror cells. We cannot afford ‘administrative errors’ when facing the strong potential for a terror strike within our borders.

***
Two brothers who kept a “human sacrifice” hit list of cops, judges, politicians, celebrities and “banker scum” were nabbed with an arsenal of homemade bombs and ghost guns in their family’s Queens apartment, prosecutors said Monday.

Wannabe anarchists Andrew Hatziagelis, 39, and his 51-year-old brother, Angelo, were hit with a 130-count indictment after cops and federal agents seized a cache of weapons that included “improvised” explosive devices, body armor and a collection of AR-15-style and 9mm ghost guns.

The pair also allegedly scribbled “hit list” on a scrap of notebook paper that included a list of potential targets that also listed “corporate scum.”

https://nypost.com/2024/01/29/metro/nyc-brothers-had-human-sacrifice-hit-list-for-cops-judges-with-stockpile-of-bombs-guns-da/

OBSERVATION - No listing of political affiliation - common if the perps are considered to be leftists, for if they were associated with the right, that would be plastered all over the article. Buried in the article is the clue as to their political leanings - they possessed “anarchist-related propaganda”.

***
Two Canadians planned to conduct assassinations in the U.S. on behalf of Iran’s intelligence services, according to allegations in a newly unsealed indictment.
The suspects are accused of plotting to shoot a man and woman living in Maryland, one of them a defector from Iran.

The charges unsealed Monday by the U.S. Department of Justice include details of the alleged plot, including the sum the would-be killers had charged for the job: $350,000 US.

They were hired by an accused Iranian drug-dealer who operates on the instructions of a certain officer with Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, according to the U.S.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-hire-canadians-killing-1.7097945

OBSERVATION - Iran prefers not to dirty their own hands in these matters - rather working thru ‘independent’ proxy organizations for these kinds of actions. Such ‘arrangement’ may also be in the works here in the US in actions related to the Gaza war and any US response to the recent targeting and deaths of three servicemen.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

***
Speaking during an interview with ABC News Live over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted prices aren’t going down, contradicting arguments repeatedly made by the Biden White House about easing inflation.

OBSERVATION - Inflation is transitory ….

***
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the advance estimate released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real GDP, a measure of the nation’s economic growth, slowed to 3.3%, a significant decline from the previous quarter’s 4.9% growth.

Warning signs, such as persistent high inflation, continue to blunt analysts’ expectations, as Fox Business notes:

“However, there are signs that growth is finally beginning to slow in the face of tighter monetary policy.

“Job growth is moderating. The housing market, which is vulnerable to higher interest rates, is trapped in a prolonged downturn, and consumer spending has shown signs of cooling off.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/gdp-growth-slows-fourth-quarter-warning-signs-remain

OBSERVATION - More signs that the economy is still sick, in spite of all the happy talk by govt economists.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and USS America (LHA-6) are all underway in the Philippine Sea.

The USS Eisenhower is still located operating in the Red Sea.

***
US military officials last month stated that a ‘small number’ of US personnel were in Yemen assisting in the fight against ISIS. Now, pentagon vigorously denies the report.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****
Ronna Romney may announce her resignation at the RNC Winter Meeting in Nevada this week. She is reportedly planning to announce her resignation in Nevada this week to sell her $10 million credit line idea to the 168 RNC members as a way to save face with the Trump campaign by telling them she officially plans to step down AFTER the July 2024 RNC convention in Wisconsin.

OBSERVATION - She wants to buy herself 5 extra months of time. She has almost single handedly destroyed the RNC’s political machine during her tenure. She needs to go now as there will be precious little time after the RNC convention to put the machine back together for the election - obviously her desire to cripple it on the way out.

***
Jake Sullivan, Sep. 2023: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

Antony Blinken, Jan. 2024: “We have not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we are facing now across the region since at least 1973.”

OBSERVATION - The dumpster fire in two short quotes that are within 4 months of each other.

***
Dozens of US government workers will stage a one-day hunger strike to protest the Biden’s administration support for Israel amid the war with Hamas.
Members of Feds United for Peace told The Guardian that employees from over two dozen government agencies – including the Departments of Defense and State – plan on a day of fasting on Thursday.

The officials participating will show up at work either dressed in black or wearing ‘keffiyeh scarves or other symbols of Palestinian solidarity.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13020421/government-workers-hunger-strike-gaza.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

OBSERVATION - More internal fighting in the regime.

***
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) reportedly remains interested in launching a 2024 presidential bid on a “No Labels” ticket if President Joe Biden, 81, has a “health scare.”

If he enters the race, Manchin would siphon votes from Biden, potentially dooming the president’s reelection campaign.
Democrats have raised concerns for months about Biden’s 2024 chances due to poor polling about his age and physical stamina:

- Redfield & Wilton Strategies: A majority of Democrats are “concerned” about Biden’s ability
- YouGov: Fifty-five percent say Biden’s health and age “severely” limit his ability to do the job.
- NBC News: Most registered voters have “major” concerns about Biden’s age and health.

The No Labels ticket, an establishment bipartisan group, set a mid-March deadline around Super Tuesday for Manchin to decide on a presidential run.

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/01/29/report-manchin-launch-2024-bid-if-biden-has-health-scare/

OBSERVATION - This would be the death knell for biden should Manchin step in third party. Expect the powers that be to do all to stop that. Manchin also faces the strong likelihood of losing his seat this fall to a republican, so a presidential run wouldn’t be that bad for him.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union

****

biden repeatedly to have made his decision on actions towards Iran over night.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 on Texas standoff.

***

In the ongoing battle between Texas and the Biden administration to defend our Southern border against invasion, more than two-thirds (69 percent) side with Texas.

“Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Likely U.S. Voters support Texas erecting barriers at the border to prevent illegal immigrants from crossing, including 53% who Strongly Support the action,” writes Rasmussen Reports. “Only 27% oppose Texas taking action to prevent illegal immigration[.]”

The internals are fascinating… On this question, a 51 percent majority of black voters side with Texas, while only 32 percent of black voters disagree. Two-thirds of Independents (66 percent) side with Texas, while only 29 percent disagree.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/01/29/nolte-border-battle-69-side-with-texas-over-biden/

OBSERVATION - I believe that I mentioned polling that indicated that the illegal dumpster fire has passed the economy as the top concern of the citizenry going into the presidential elections. This poll clearly reflects that level of shift, especially the level of support for TX’s actions. Only hard core leftist idealism would strike out at TX at this stage of the election cycle to see those voters leave biden for a probable Trump.

China –

China is deploying multiple warships around the clock in waters near the borders of the air defense identification zone that it has unilaterally established, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

China’s move shows that it is a pressing issue for the Japanese government to take action to deal with Beijing’s attempt to change the status quo by force. China’s ADIZ, established in November 2013, overlaps with Japan’s and includes the Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.

China started deploying at least three navy warships around the clock in waters around its claimed ADIZ, according to Japanese government sources.

The three include an air defense missile destroyer, which is the Chinese version of an Aegis-equipped destroyer, and a frigate warship. Equipped with high-performance radar, air defense missile destroyers are highly capable of shooting down aircraft.

Most recently, China’s coast guard says its officers ordered a Japanese fishing vessel and several patrol ships in waters surrounding tiny Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea to leave.

China’s coast guard said Saturday its officers ordered a Japanese fishing vessel and several patrol ships to leave waters surrounding tiny Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea. It marked the latest incident pointing to lingering tensions between the sides.

OBSERVATION - China has broader territorial goals beyond Taiwan in the western Pacific region. By using a combination of it regular navy, coast guard and militarized civilian merchant fleet, they move into an area and stake their claim, using various levels of force to deter the recognized owners of the region access. This tactic is on going against the Philippines.

The Senkakus Islands lie between Taiwan and Okinawa, 330 kilometers (205 miles) off the Chinese coast. Following World War II, they were administered by the United States and returned to Japanese sovereignty in 1972.

Japan –

See China above on incursions.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.

Russia attacked with 35 shahed drones overnight of which 15 were shot down. Most of them were aimed at front line infrastructure and military facilities were there are fewer air defenses capable against drones.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian Su-34 jet over Luhansk Oblast on Jan. 29, according to Andrii Kovalev, a spokesperson for the General Staff, on Jan. 30.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

The loss of even one Su -34 is devastating to Russia given that they have so few operable aircraft of that model to begin with.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNRWA scandal grows worse

- Fighting increases in N Gaza

- Israeli security forces raid kills three Hamas affiliated terrorists operating out of the Sina Hospital in Jenin

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.

***
Reuters with reference to Israel dossier reports that 190 UN staff in Gaza involved in Hamas attack.

Intelligence reports suggest that ten percent of the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA) employees have ties to Islamist militant groups, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. The New York Times had reported earlier on reports that the agency employed at least 10 Hamas members, among whom were a school counselor who worked with his son to kidnap an Israeli woman and a social worker who distributed ammunition.

***
Biden administration reportedly exploring the possibility of leveraging arms shipments to Israel to place pressure on Netanyahu to scale back the war against Hamas

Biden has been ambivalent about Israel’s quest to destroy Hamas since the outset of the IDF’s offensive in Gaza. While pledging to maintain military support for Jerusalem, Biden and his officials have adopted an increasingly critical attitude towards Israel, questioning both its military tactics and Netanyahu’s war aims.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated Washington’s view that a two-state solution was the best solution to the conflict, arguing that, without a “pathway to a Palestinian state” Israel would not “get genuine security”.

The deepening rift between Biden and Netanyahu was clearly evident during the latest exchange between the two leaders, the first time they had made contact in four weeks. While Netanyahu again voiced his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state in their 30-40-minute call last Friday, Biden focused on reaffirming his commitment to work toward helping the Palestinians move toward statehood.

Gaston Inst via - https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6645

OBSERVATION - the regime has been the most hostile towards Israel in decades, only supporting Israel due to the overall support by Americans. Both he and 0bama sought to cast Netanyahu off into outer darkness, but he continues to be the major presence in Israeli politics.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The IDF directed Air Force fighter jets in destroying rocket launchers that were used to fire a barrage into central Israel on Monday, as well as eliminating terrorist cells in various parts of the Gaza Strip, it announced on Tuesday.

The IDF also announced that its troops destroyed a military asset belonging to Hamas’ Anti-Tank Missile Unit.

The IDF will begin reinforcing its positions in the northern Gaza Strip, according to IDF Radio on Monday morning.
The radio announcement came amid concerns that Hamas has begun to renew its presence in the area, following the drawing down of IDF troops announced at the beginning of January.
The IDF is expected to carry out several brigade-level operations to prevent the reestablishment of an organized Hamas presence in the northern Gaza Strip.
The timing of the announcement appears to be related to a rocket launch from northern Gaza toward Ashkelon on Sunday afternoon, the first in a month, as well as reports of fighting on the beach west of Gaza City.

The IDF estimates that about 2,000 Hamas terrorists remain in the northern Gaza Strip. The Hamas operatives are believed to be disconnected from senior Hamas leaders in the southern Strip. However, a local commander, Izz a-Din al-Haddad, is believed to be behind the recent activity against IDF soldiers in the northern Strip.

https://allisrael.com/idf-moves-to-reinforce-northern-gaza-strip-as-hamas-presence-increases

***

IDF is said to have broken into a major Hamas HQ in Khan Younis, including the office of Hamas head Sinwar. IDF troops are advancing rapidly through the tunnel maze.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.

***
Israeli paratroopers and combat engineering troops over the weekend simulated a full-scale war on the northern border with Lebanon-based Hezbollah forces , while continuing the war against Hamas in Gaza.
The deputy commander of the IDF’s 226th Brigade emphasized that the military was ready for all-out war with the Iranian-backed terrorist group in Lebanon, despite harsh winter conditions in the north.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Initial reports the airstrike conducted yesterday in Damascus, Syria targeted the HQ belonging to IRGC Advisors in Syria.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists

IDF special forces overnight reportedly secretly entered the Ibn Sina Hospital in Jenin with silenced weapons & assassinated three militants, including two high-ranking commanders, one of which is a founder of the Jenin Brigades & the other a leader of Hamas in Jenin. The terrorists were reportedly planning an October 7-inspired terror attack.

Israeli security forces stated that for a long time, a large number of wanted persons had been hiding in hospitals and were using them as a base for planning terror attacks and carrying them out, and that they believed that the hospitals would serve as protection against Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The drone attack on Tower 22 in Jordan was 1 of 4 attacks claimed by the Iran-backed The Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The latest US tally confirms a 2nd drone attack around the same time on AlTanf garrison in NE Syria with no damage or injuries.

The number of troops injured in the Jordan base attack is now more than 40, the Pentagon says.

US forces in the Middle East have now been attacked at least 165 times since mid-October, per a US military official. This includes Friday’s attack on Tower 22 in Jordan that killed 3 US troops and injured dozens more.

***
A U.S. official confirmed to Fox News the drone from an Iranian proxy that killed 3 American service members in Jordan and injured others got past the air defenses for Tower 22 because it was mistaken for a U.S. drone expected to return to the base at the same time.

The Wall Street Journal initially reported on this development on Monday. A U.S. official confirmed the information to Fox News.

A U.S. official told Fox News that the American drone and the attacking one were “in the vicinity” of one another.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drone-iran-proxy-evaded-us-defenses-mistaken-us-drone-official.amp

***
Biden was reportedly to have given the ‘go’ for retaliatory strikes against Iranian sponsored militia groups and even Iranian forces themselves overnight.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

French Foreign Ministry - “We strongly condemn the attack that targeted U.S soldiers on the Syrian-Jordanian border.”

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

Speculation - Upcoming retaliatory strikes by the U.S. are expected to be more powerful and will be aimed at deterring other attacks. Once the go-ahead is given, the operation will take a couple of days to execute and will likely consist of multiple waves.

An U.S. official to CNN stated that “nothing is being taken off the table”:

- Strike Iran-allied bases and commanders
This is the most obvious choice and one that has been used in the past.
- Striking Iranian personnel in Iraq.
- Striking Iranian personnel in Syria.
- Striking Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf.

It is possible that the U.S. is currently weighing the option of striking the Iranian spy ship (BEHSHAD) that is operated by the IRGC. It is widely believed that it is directing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

If biden made the decision overnight, it could take up to several days to get the assets together for a military strike. It has to cause serious hurt to Iran and its assets, else it will only encourage more attacks.

Iran – Potential war with US developing.

Iranian Air Defense assets are reportedly on high alert status.

Mexico -

(AP) — Mexico wants an urgent investigation into how U.S. military-grade weapons are increasingly being found in the hands of Mexican drug cartels, Mexico’s top diplomat said Monday.

Mexico’s army is finding belt-fed machine guns, rocket launchers and grenades that are not sold for civilian use in the United States.

“The (Mexican) Defense Department has warned the United States about weapons entering Mexico that are for the exclusive use of the U.S. army,” Foreign Relations Secretary Alicia Bárcena said. “It is very urgent that an investigation into this be carried out.”

OBSERVATION - Since these are prohibited weapons in the US, there are multiple others sources. The biggest that comes to mind is the Taliban who took control of a ton of these weapons. Another source could be corrupt sources in Ukraine - historically very corrupt when it comes to these kinds of matters.

Misc of Note –

Massive Fire erupted after a large explosion at Feather Crest Farm Chicken Plant in Bryan, Texas. The plant is a total loss.

OBSERVATION - Talk is rising again that this is part of a concerted effort to destroy our food processing capabilities. I’m not convinced yet - no background/base data to compare against.

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