Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Post Davos ripples of distain from the elites still traveling outward. Another interesting usage of the phrase ‘protecting democracy’ put forth by the elites in regards to their definition of ‘misinformation’. One has to ask - who the heck elected them to be our representatives. The answer is NO ONE. Remember that as the term ‘protect democracy’ gets floated around.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
No significant changes in the standoff. The closure has significantly cut down illegal penetration into Texas, with a lot of it being shifted to the west and into NM, AZ and CA. All three are leftist run and unlikely to take aggressive measures to protect its citizens like TX.
***
See Terrorism warning below. Attached to it may well be a rise in pro-hamas and associated pro-islam protests across the country in opposition to any US airstrikes on Iran. These protests could spring up quickly and spontaneously at first, with larger and more organized protests and potential rioting after a few days. Political targets across the spectrum - no one specific party to be singled out, though suspect that the preponderance will be directed against the biden regimen since they are calling the military shots.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
Warning - impending military action against Iranian assets for the overnight attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
Market watching fed actions in the meetings starting tomorrow.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) departed San Diego, Calif., last week to begin its deployment. Currently listed in the Mid-Pacific, likely headed west. With it are the following -
USS Lake Erie (CG-70)
Destroyer Squadron 23 consisting of -
- USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), homeported at Naval Station Everett, Wash.
- USS Halsey (DDG-97), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
- USS Daniel Inouye (DDG-118),
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden thinks his son is buried outside of Paris and Trump refused to honor his grave. Biden is mentally compromised.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called for a “meaningful pathway to citizenship” on Monday night amid efforts by President Joe Biden and Congressional leadership to try and reach a bipartisan national security deal that would fund border enforcement efforts and unlock military aid for Ukraine.
During an interview with CNN’s Laura Coates on Monday, Harris discussed the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, referring to it as a “long-standing problem.”
“There’s no question that our immigration system is broken,” Harris said. “And so much so, that as the first bill that we offered after our inauguration, was to fix the immigration system, which included what we must do to create a pathway for citizenship and to put the resources that are needed into the border. But sadly, people on the other side of the aisle have been playing politics with this issue.”
OBSERVATION - Clear example of the employment of the Hegelian Dialectic, in which the crisis is created and the ‘solution’ offered comes from those who created the crisis in the first place.
***
Two articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas were released by House Republicans on Sunday.
Republicans said they will quickly move forward to try to oust Mayorkas from office.
OBSERVATION - This, sadly, is mostly for show since the Senate will not convict and Mayorkas will remain in his position. It does serve to bolster the republicans claims of border treason by the administration in the upcoming elections. Recent polls indicate that the public sees the border as its most significant concern as the complications of handing the 6 million plus illegals that have come across the border start negatively impacting blue cities and states.
China –
Debt-laden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.
Judge Linda Chan said “enough is enough” after the troubled developer repeatedly failed to come up with a plan to restructure its debts.
The firm has been the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with more than $300bn (£236bn) of debt.
When Evergrande defaulted two years ago it sent shockwaves through global financial markets.
Evergrande’s executive director, Shawn Siu, described the decision as “regrettable”, but said the company would continue to operate in mainland China.
While any potential impact of the ruling on Evergrande’s home building business is currently unclear, the crisis at the company has already left many home buyers waiting for their new properties.
Beijing has previously sought to temper public concern about the property crisis as people have taken to Chinese social media sites such as Weibo to share their frustrations about developers like Evergrande.
The court’s decision is also likely to send further ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.
China’s property sector contributes roughly a quarter of the world’s second biggest economy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67562522?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
OBSERVATION - This is another big hit to the Chinese economy already suffering substantial other woes. The decision as noted affects mostly Hong Kong, but will clearly ripple thru the Chinese economy as well.
North/South Korea –
The New York Times is reporting that the Kim Jong-un government has plans for escalation, saying that it will soon launch some kind of lethal military action against the south, but will still seek to avoid a full-scale war.
“North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted to a policy of open hostility” U.S. officials say.
US officials indicated the recent spate of more aggressive statements from Kim should be taken seriously. “While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation,” the report continued.
“They pointed to North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 as an example,” NYT noted. “The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides as well as civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.”
Something which came dangerously close to the 2010 deadly exchange of fire actually happened earlier this month. On Jan.5 North Korea fired over 200 artillery rounds off its West coast which landed near the South’s Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong Islands
OBSERVATION - Taking a deep breath. Very dangerous game of chicken as once you take lethal action, it is very hard to put the genie back in the bottle and prevent full on war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian claims that they continue to sell their oil at pre-sanctions levels turned out to be optimistic. The problems are that Russia didn’t build pipelines to its two largest customers, China, and India, before the Ukraine war, and now can’t because it lacks the means given the impact of Western sanctions. Those sanctions also mean higher costs for delivering oil to existing customers, plus customers now demand lower prices because of the sanctions risk. In the worst cases Russian receives half the world price for their oil. In the best situations there is still a ten or 20 percent discount. There is a similar situation with shipments of liquid natural gas/LNG.
The worst aspect of all this is that Russian oil sales are now barely profitable. Russia depends on those profits to pay for oil and gas exploration and the construction of new oil and gas extraction and delivery systems, plus maintenance of existing oil and gas infrastructure. The government is so desperate that they have raised prices for Russian customers using oil and natural gas. This adds to the already high inflation in Russia and is very unpopular with the Russian public. Even that is not enough, and Russia’s gas and oil companies continue to suffer enormous losses. In 2023 the losses amounted to $10 billion and in 2024 there are expected to be similar losses. The national oil company cannot maintain, improve, or expand its extraction and delivery systems without those profits.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20240129.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 8 Shahed drones, Russian army also launched Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 S-300 missiles.
Ukraine launched drones at the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, but they reportedly didn’t hit their target.
Russia continues to launch large ‘meat assaults’ in the Avdiivka region, suffering heavy casualties and achieving no gains. Ukraine announced a counter attack in the Avdiivka region, conflict still ongoing and no reports of any success for failure.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Seeing elevated reports of Russian killed/wounded in recent days coming out of the Ukraine govt. These are estimates however, the preponderance of Russian attacks across all fronts have been the previously noted “meat attacks” - human wave assaults poorly supported (if at all ) by any tanks, armor or artillery. The lead elements of these assaults are Z units composed of conscripted prisoners trying to earn their freedom from their jail sentences. They are often reportedly followed by ‘enforcer’ elements - shooting any Z troopers who attempt to retreat under fire.
Europe / NATO General –
Brussels has drawn up a plan to sabotage Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán blocks a €50bn aid package to Ukraine this week, according to a secret internal document that was released to the press that lays out Budapest’s economic weaknesses and how to exploit them.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA scandal continues.
- “Islamic Resistance” attack kills three US servicemen in Jordan, injures dozens others.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
UNRWA warns - “Our services in Gaza may stop within a month”
On Friday, in response to allegations that employees of the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) had been involved in Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, the State Department announced that it had “temporarily paused additional funding” for the United Nations agency. The funding pause, however, applies only to new and additional funding, not funding already obligated before the pause went into effect on Wednesday, a State Department spokesperson told Pluribus.
NOTE - This is essentially continuing the funding for the corrupt UNRWA operations in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.
Heavy IAF airstrikes in N Gaza overnight.
Hamas managed to shoot two (2) rockets, one shot down, the other impacted in uninhabited area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army launched raids on the Damascus countryside a short while ago. Syrian sources report aerial bombardment targeted farms extending between the areas of Aqraba and Sayyida Zeinab, south of Damascus.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis announced the firing of a missile at the US warship “Lewis P. Puller” in the Gulf of Aden
See Iran below on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attack that killed 3 US service members in Jordan.
Yemen’s Houthi delegation meets in Moscow with the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, where they discussed the situation in the region as well as the importance of intensifying efforts to pressure the United States and Israel to stop war in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi top negotiator says on messaging platform X.
NOTE - Russia/Iranian ties have increased since the start of the Gaza war, and as one of Iran’s proxy forces, the Houthi are welcomed into that increased cooperation forum.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
US weakness has cost US lives. Now, in addition to the Houthi holding the US navy at bay, so called “islamic resistance” forces have killed US soldiers. US desires to keep Iran happy are now costing us dearly and this will only make matters worse.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
This is what happens when you try to coddle favor with a declared enemy of the US and what $6 Billion in pay offs buys.
U.S. military announced three American troops were killed and as many as 50 injured in a drone attack in Jordan on Sunday. The service personnel were sleeping in a canvas tent when the attack occurred.
“Tower 22”, the U.S. base in NE Jordan overlooks a Syrian refugee camp called Rukban, where 15,000 people have been living for years. There are approximately 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel deployed to the base, conducting a number of key support functions, including support to the coalition for the lasting defeat of ISIS. It is also near the Al-Tanf Garrison, where a couple hundred U.S. troops are based.
The group that will claim responsibility calls themselves the “Islamic Resistance of Iraq,” but that’s really a post Oct 7 umbrella group of IRGC sponsored militias. The actual attackers were likely Kateeb Hizballah with support of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujab and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq.
Tehran has claimed that it was not involved in the drone attack. Biden said the attack was carried out by “radical Iran-backed militant groups,” while many US politicians blamed Tehran directly. UK Foreign Minister David Cameron similarly pointed to the Islamic Republic, urging it to “de-escalate in the region.”
“As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding the war crimes and genocide,” Kanaani said. “They do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran. These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”
Biden promised a response to the deaths of Americans. “We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - This attack doesn’t surprise me. As I’ve been stating, the US has failed to respond to the now over 100 attacks on US personnel/bases in the Syria/Iraq and now Jordan region in a substantial manner. It was only a matter of time before they managed to score a jackpot.
This attack was done under the cover of the Gaza war and the “independent” response of Iranian backed militia groups. I’ve noted that long before the Gaza conflict, Iran and Syria were working on plans to drive US forces out of Syria and Iraq using these same militias.
Iran can only hide behind the curtain of ‘independent’ operations of these militias. IRGC officers and support are present in all these units, as well as supplying the weapons and munitions - including the drone(s) used overnight.
There is a great deal of RUMINT regarding IRGC leadership elements scrambling to relocate to avoid US airstrikes. Further rumors that even some Syrian and Russian advisors are relocating as well.
It was noted last evening by OSINT folks that at least 10 US air refueling tankers took off towards Europe and possible middle eastern destinations. The numbers were out of the ordinary though some seem to think it is part of a normal rotation of assets or support for the ongoing NATO exercise. No air tankers were noted on any return trip to the US,, making the rotation theory shaky. The NATO exercise started last week, so why now the surge in air tankers? Were they ‘dragging’ US heavy bombers like the B1 and B2?
Many voices in congress are calling for a military strike on Iran in response to the attack. biden called his security council together over night to decide on responses to the attack.
Worst case scenario - biden attempts to conduct a limited attack on Iranian forces but his bungling national defense team screws it up again and results in closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a lot more US casualties. Iran could also use the attack to justify going the last distance and enriching uranium to the 90% level needed for a bomb. Even worse case scenario - setting a bomb off against US forces. That would literally cause the region to blow up (no pun intended) as Israel would then respond to stop further nuclear developments and Iran would unleash Hezbollah.
Any US response that isn’t massive and through will only confirm to the mullahs that the US is now a paper tiger, weak and unwilling to put up a meaningful fight. Thus encouraging more emboldened attacks.
See also Terrorism and CW2 above for more potential Iranian actions against the US.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday that he has proposed the signing of a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan, pending a comprehensive peace treaty between the arch-foe Caucasus neighbours.
Yerevan and Baku have fought two wars – in 2020 and in the 1990s – over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan recaptured in a lightning offensive last year.
“We have presented Azerbaijan with a proposal for a mutual arms control mechanism and the signing of a non-aggression pact if the signature of a peace treaty encounters delays,” Pashinyan said in a speech during an Armenian Army Day celebration event.
OBSERVATION - Russia essentially abandoned Armenia due to the Ukraine war, leaving it to flap in the wind when facing a much larger Azeri army. Azerbaijan may or may not in the long term, honor this pact if they sign it - being islamic, they tend to redefine and honor treaties as they see fit.
Misc of Note –
Folks January is almost closed out and the situation here in the US is coming unglued at an unprecedented pace. Now facing a potential regional conflict with Iran and its proxy forces, we are not prepared to do what is necessary to put them in their box, and this will cost us dearly in the near and long term.
We also faced a kickoff of a potential ‘hot’ civil war situation in TX - outcome still up in the air.
Lawfare against Trump has exposed corruption on the part of prosecutors and judges at a previously inconceivable level.
Chaos is permitting other insidious actions by the regime to move forward, such as knifing European allies in the back by pausing the LNG promises and development.
This is a whole years worth of stuff - plus a lot of other items I haven’t mentioned - crammed into one month. The year is still young.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Thousands of tractors are blockading all of Paris as the French farmers are saying NO to climate policies. 15 000 police have been mobilized to stop the farmers from entering the city. Those police have encountered manure spreading equipment - with appropriate results. Taxi drivers and other business sectors such a truckers are joining in support. The 8 highways leading to the capital are blocked by hundreds of tractors for an indefinite period.
The reported goal of this stage of protests is to cut the city off from supplies for at least 3 days.
OBSERVATION - Farmer protests continue in multiple other counties in Europe. IMHO the WEF/globalist assault on farming/ranching all in the name of saving the planet from global warming is to create a famine that will be used to kill off useless biomass (humans) and control the survivors via control of the food. Govt attacks against agriculture are ramping up all around the globe, and not just in Europe.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
No significant changes in the standoff. See “Illegal Immigration” below for recent poll numbers indicating substantial support by the citizens for TX and the actions it has taken.
IMHO, with the growing crisis against Iran, I don’t anticipate any aggressive actions by the regime against TX, mostly political posturing and more generally empty threats.
***
Pro-hamas protestors heckled pelosi outside her home in Kalifornia. She promptly responded by telling them to “go back to China”. She also demanded an investigation into whether Russia was behind the protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Federal authorities caught an Al-Shabaab terrorist at the U.S. southern border and released him into the country, where he roamed freely for nearly a year before being arrested in Minnesota just days ago.
The Terrorist Screening Center “deemed him a ‘mismatch’” after running his name through the terror watchlist, according to the memo, which was sent to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials.
However, on January 18, 2024, the Terrorist Screening Center “made a redetermination” that the individual was “a confirmed member of al-Shabaab” and was involved in the use, manufacture or transport of explosives or firearms, the memo states. Two days later, ICE nabbed the al-Shabaab member in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
OBSERVATION - That gives a lot of time for organizing and coordinating terror cells. We cannot afford ‘administrative errors’ when facing the strong potential for a terror strike within our borders.
***
Two brothers who kept a “human sacrifice” hit list of cops, judges, politicians, celebrities and “banker scum” were nabbed with an arsenal of homemade bombs and ghost guns in their family’s Queens apartment, prosecutors said Monday.
Wannabe anarchists Andrew Hatziagelis, 39, and his 51-year-old brother, Angelo, were hit with a 130-count indictment after cops and federal agents seized a cache of weapons that included “improvised” explosive devices, body armor and a collection of AR-15-style and 9mm ghost guns.
The pair also allegedly scribbled “hit list” on a scrap of notebook paper that included a list of potential targets that also listed “corporate scum.”
OBSERVATION - No listing of political affiliation - common if the perps are considered to be leftists, for if they were associated with the right, that would be plastered all over the article. Buried in the article is the clue as to their political leanings - they possessed “anarchist-related propaganda”.
***
Two Canadians planned to conduct assassinations in the U.S. on behalf of Iran’s intelligence services, according to allegations in a newly unsealed indictment.
The suspects are accused of plotting to shoot a man and woman living in Maryland, one of them a defector from Iran.
The charges unsealed Monday by the U.S. Department of Justice include details of the alleged plot, including the sum the would-be killers had charged for the job: $350,000 US.
They were hired by an accused Iranian drug-dealer who operates on the instructions of a certain officer with Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, according to the U.S.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-hire-canadians-killing-1.7097945
OBSERVATION - Iran prefers not to dirty their own hands in these matters - rather working thru ‘independent’ proxy organizations for these kinds of actions. Such ‘arrangement’ may also be in the works here in the US in actions related to the Gaza war and any US response to the recent targeting and deaths of three servicemen.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
Speaking during an interview with ABC News Live over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted prices aren’t going down, contradicting arguments repeatedly made by the Biden White House about easing inflation.
OBSERVATION - Inflation is transitory ….
***
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the advance estimate released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Real GDP, a measure of the nation’s economic growth, slowed to 3.3%, a significant decline from the previous quarter’s 4.9% growth.
Warning signs, such as persistent high inflation, continue to blunt analysts’ expectations, as Fox Business notes:
“However, there are signs that growth is finally beginning to slow in the face of tighter monetary policy.
“Job growth is moderating. The housing market, which is vulnerable to higher interest rates, is trapped in a prolonged downturn, and consumer spending has shown signs of cooling off.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/gdp-growth-slows-fourth-quarter-warning-signs-remain
OBSERVATION - More signs that the economy is still sick, in spite of all the happy talk by govt economists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and USS America (LHA-6) are all underway in the Philippine Sea.
The USS Eisenhower is still located operating in the Red Sea.
***
US military officials last month stated that a ‘small number’ of US personnel were in Yemen assisting in the fight against ISIS. Now, pentagon vigorously denies the report.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Ronna Romney may announce her resignation at the RNC Winter Meeting in Nevada this week. She is reportedly planning to announce her resignation in Nevada this week to sell her $10 million credit line idea to the 168 RNC members as a way to save face with the Trump campaign by telling them she officially plans to step down AFTER the July 2024 RNC convention in Wisconsin.
OBSERVATION - She wants to buy herself 5 extra months of time. She has almost single handedly destroyed the RNC’s political machine during her tenure. She needs to go now as there will be precious little time after the RNC convention to put the machine back together for the election - obviously her desire to cripple it on the way out.
***
Jake Sullivan, Sep. 2023: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
Antony Blinken, Jan. 2024: “We have not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we are facing now across the region since at least 1973.”
OBSERVATION - The dumpster fire in two short quotes that are within 4 months of each other.
***
Dozens of US government workers will stage a one-day hunger strike to protest the Biden’s administration support for Israel amid the war with Hamas.
Members of Feds United for Peace told The Guardian that employees from over two dozen government agencies – including the Departments of Defense and State – plan on a day of fasting on Thursday.
The officials participating will show up at work either dressed in black or wearing ‘keffiyeh scarves or other symbols of Palestinian solidarity.’
OBSERVATION - More internal fighting in the regime.
***
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) reportedly remains interested in launching a 2024 presidential bid on a “No Labels” ticket if President Joe Biden, 81, has a “health scare.”
If he enters the race, Manchin would siphon votes from Biden, potentially dooming the president’s reelection campaign.
Democrats have raised concerns for months about Biden’s 2024 chances due to poor polling about his age and physical stamina:
- Redfield & Wilton Strategies: A majority of Democrats are “concerned” about Biden’s ability
- YouGov: Fifty-five percent say Biden’s health and age “severely” limit his ability to do the job.
- NBC News: Most registered voters have “major” concerns about Biden’s age and health.
The No Labels ticket, an establishment bipartisan group, set a mid-March deadline around Super Tuesday for Manchin to decide on a presidential run.
OBSERVATION - This would be the death knell for biden should Manchin step in third party. Expect the powers that be to do all to stop that. Manchin also faces the strong likelihood of losing his seat this fall to a republican, so a presidential run wouldn’t be that bad for him.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
biden repeatedly to have made his decision on actions towards Iran over night.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
In the ongoing battle between Texas and the Biden administration to defend our Southern border against invasion, more than two-thirds (69 percent) side with Texas.
“Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Likely U.S. Voters support Texas erecting barriers at the border to prevent illegal immigrants from crossing, including 53% who Strongly Support the action,” writes Rasmussen Reports. “Only 27% oppose Texas taking action to prevent illegal immigration[.]”
The internals are fascinating… On this question, a 51 percent majority of black voters side with Texas, while only 32 percent of black voters disagree. Two-thirds of Independents (66 percent) side with Texas, while only 29 percent disagree.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/01/29/nolte-border-battle-69-side-with-texas-over-biden/
OBSERVATION - I believe that I mentioned polling that indicated that the illegal dumpster fire has passed the economy as the top concern of the citizenry going into the presidential elections. This poll clearly reflects that level of shift, especially the level of support for TX’s actions. Only hard core leftist idealism would strike out at TX at this stage of the election cycle to see those voters leave biden for a probable Trump.
China –
China is deploying multiple warships around the clock in waters near the borders of the air defense identification zone that it has unilaterally established, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.
China’s move shows that it is a pressing issue for the Japanese government to take action to deal with Beijing’s attempt to change the status quo by force. China’s ADIZ, established in November 2013, overlaps with Japan’s and includes the Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.
China started deploying at least three navy warships around the clock in waters around its claimed ADIZ, according to Japanese government sources.
The three include an air defense missile destroyer, which is the Chinese version of an Aegis-equipped destroyer, and a frigate warship. Equipped with high-performance radar, air defense missile destroyers are highly capable of shooting down aircraft.
Most recently, China’s coast guard says its officers ordered a Japanese fishing vessel and several patrol ships in waters surrounding tiny Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea to leave.
China’s coast guard said Saturday its officers ordered a Japanese fishing vessel and several patrol ships to leave waters surrounding tiny Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea. It marked the latest incident pointing to lingering tensions between the sides.
OBSERVATION - China has broader territorial goals beyond Taiwan in the western Pacific region. By using a combination of it regular navy, coast guard and militarized civilian merchant fleet, they move into an area and stake their claim, using various levels of force to deter the recognized owners of the region access. This tactic is on going against the Philippines.
The Senkakus Islands lie between Taiwan and Okinawa, 330 kilometers (205 miles) off the Chinese coast. Following World War II, they were administered by the United States and returned to Japanese sovereignty in 1972.
Japan –
See China above on incursions.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Russia attacked with 35 shahed drones overnight of which 15 were shot down. Most of them were aimed at front line infrastructure and military facilities were there are fewer air defenses capable against drones.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian Su-34 jet over Luhansk Oblast on Jan. 29, according to Andrii Kovalev, a spokesperson for the General Staff, on Jan. 30.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The loss of even one Su -34 is devastating to Russia given that they have so few operable aircraft of that model to begin with.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA scandal grows worse
- Fighting increases in N Gaza
- Israeli security forces raid kills three Hamas affiliated terrorists operating out of the Sina Hospital in Jenin
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Reuters with reference to Israel dossier reports that 190 UN staff in Gaza involved in Hamas attack.
Intelligence reports suggest that ten percent of the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA) employees have ties to Islamist militant groups, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. The New York Times had reported earlier on reports that the agency employed at least 10 Hamas members, among whom were a school counselor who worked with his son to kidnap an Israeli woman and a social worker who distributed ammunition.
***
Biden administration reportedly exploring the possibility of leveraging arms shipments to Israel to place pressure on Netanyahu to scale back the war against Hamas
Biden has been ambivalent about Israel’s quest to destroy Hamas since the outset of the IDF’s offensive in Gaza. While pledging to maintain military support for Jerusalem, Biden and his officials have adopted an increasingly critical attitude towards Israel, questioning both its military tactics and Netanyahu’s war aims.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated Washington’s view that a two-state solution was the best solution to the conflict, arguing that, without a “pathway to a Palestinian state” Israel would not “get genuine security”.
The deepening rift between Biden and Netanyahu was clearly evident during the latest exchange between the two leaders, the first time they had made contact in four weeks. While Netanyahu again voiced his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state in their 30-40-minute call last Friday, Biden focused on reaffirming his commitment to work toward helping the Palestinians move toward statehood.
Gaston Inst via - https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6645
OBSERVATION - the regime has been the most hostile towards Israel in decades, only supporting Israel due to the overall support by Americans. Both he and 0bama sought to cast Netanyahu off into outer darkness, but he continues to be the major presence in Israeli politics.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF directed Air Force fighter jets in destroying rocket launchers that were used to fire a barrage into central Israel on Monday, as well as eliminating terrorist cells in various parts of the Gaza Strip, it announced on Tuesday.
The IDF also announced that its troops destroyed a military asset belonging to Hamas’ Anti-Tank Missile Unit.
The IDF will begin reinforcing its positions in the northern Gaza Strip, according to IDF Radio on Monday morning.
The radio announcement came amid concerns that Hamas has begun to renew its presence in the area, following the drawing down of IDF troops announced at the beginning of January.
The IDF is expected to carry out several brigade-level operations to prevent the reestablishment of an organized Hamas presence in the northern Gaza Strip.
The timing of the announcement appears to be related to a rocket launch from northern Gaza toward Ashkelon on Sunday afternoon, the first in a month, as well as reports of fighting on the beach west of Gaza City.
The IDF estimates that about 2,000 Hamas terrorists remain in the northern Gaza Strip. The Hamas operatives are believed to be disconnected from senior Hamas leaders in the southern Strip. However, a local commander, Izz a-Din al-Haddad, is believed to be behind the recent activity against IDF soldiers in the northern Strip.
https://allisrael.com/idf-moves-to-reinforce-northern-gaza-strip-as-hamas-presence-increases
***
IDF is said to have broken into a major Hamas HQ in Khan Younis, including the office of Hamas head Sinwar. IDF troops are advancing rapidly through the tunnel maze.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
***
Israeli paratroopers and combat engineering troops over the weekend simulated a full-scale war on the northern border with Lebanon-based Hezbollah forces , while continuing the war against Hamas in Gaza.
The deputy commander of the IDF’s 226th Brigade emphasized that the military was ready for all-out war with the Iranian-backed terrorist group in Lebanon, despite harsh winter conditions in the north.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Initial reports the airstrike conducted yesterday in Damascus, Syria targeted the HQ belonging to IRGC Advisors in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
IDF special forces overnight reportedly secretly entered the Ibn Sina Hospital in Jenin with silenced weapons & assassinated three militants, including two high-ranking commanders, one of which is a founder of the Jenin Brigades & the other a leader of Hamas in Jenin. The terrorists were reportedly planning an October 7-inspired terror attack.
Israeli security forces stated that for a long time, a large number of wanted persons had been hiding in hospitals and were using them as a base for planning terror attacks and carrying them out, and that they believed that the hospitals would serve as protection against Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The drone attack on Tower 22 in Jordan was 1 of 4 attacks claimed by the Iran-backed The Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The latest US tally confirms a 2nd drone attack around the same time on AlTanf garrison in NE Syria with no damage or injuries.
The number of troops injured in the Jordan base attack is now more than 40, the Pentagon says.
US forces in the Middle East have now been attacked at least 165 times since mid-October, per a US military official. This includes Friday’s attack on Tower 22 in Jordan that killed 3 US troops and injured dozens more.
***
A U.S. official confirmed to Fox News the drone from an Iranian proxy that killed 3 American service members in Jordan and injured others got past the air defenses for Tower 22 because it was mistaken for a U.S. drone expected to return to the base at the same time.
The Wall Street Journal initially reported on this development on Monday. A U.S. official confirmed the information to Fox News.
A U.S. official told Fox News that the American drone and the attacking one were “in the vicinity” of one another.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drone-iran-proxy-evaded-us-defenses-mistaken-us-drone-official.amp
***
Biden was reportedly to have given the ‘go’ for retaliatory strikes against Iranian sponsored militia groups and even Iranian forces themselves overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
French Foreign Ministry - “We strongly condemn the attack that targeted U.S soldiers on the Syrian-Jordanian border.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Speculation - Upcoming retaliatory strikes by the U.S. are expected to be more powerful and will be aimed at deterring other attacks. Once the go-ahead is given, the operation will take a couple of days to execute and will likely consist of multiple waves.
An U.S. official to CNN stated that “nothing is being taken off the table”:
- Strike Iran-allied bases and commanders
This is the most obvious choice and one that has been used in the past.
- Striking Iranian personnel in Iraq.
- Striking Iranian personnel in Syria.
- Striking Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf.
It is possible that the U.S. is currently weighing the option of striking the Iranian spy ship (BEHSHAD) that is operated by the IRGC. It is widely believed that it is directing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
If biden made the decision overnight, it could take up to several days to get the assets together for a military strike. It has to cause serious hurt to Iran and its assets, else it will only encourage more attacks.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
Iranian Air Defense assets are reportedly on high alert status.
Mexico -
(AP) — Mexico wants an urgent investigation into how U.S. military-grade weapons are increasingly being found in the hands of Mexican drug cartels, Mexico’s top diplomat said Monday.
Mexico’s army is finding belt-fed machine guns, rocket launchers and grenades that are not sold for civilian use in the United States.
“The (Mexican) Defense Department has warned the United States about weapons entering Mexico that are for the exclusive use of the U.S. army,” Foreign Relations Secretary Alicia Bárcena said. “It is very urgent that an investigation into this be carried out.”
OBSERVATION - Since these are prohibited weapons in the US, there are multiple others sources. The biggest that comes to mind is the Taliban who took control of a ton of these weapons. Another source could be corrupt sources in Ukraine - historically very corrupt when it comes to these kinds of matters.
Misc of Note –
Massive Fire erupted after a large explosion at Feather Crest Farm Chicken Plant in Bryan, Texas. The plant is a total loss.
OBSERVATION - Talk is rising again that this is part of a concerted effort to destroy our food processing capabilities. I’m not convinced yet - no background/base data to compare against.