Developments of the last 24-48 hours have pushed the likelihood of the “Great Divorce” that much closer to happening. I’m assessing what would happen in my corner of the Redoubt show things go sideways at Eagle Pass TX. Currently my state is standing with TX, but all states that are signing on their support need to issue warning orders to their NG elements to prepare for action.
Freepers need to plan accordingly
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European Central Bank asks some lenders to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs — Reuters
OBSERVATION - Cryptic request that suggests that some kind of event is going to happen. Why not all lenders? How much / many assets do these lending institutions have to conduct social media monitoring?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Texas Governor Greg Abbott issues statement DEFYING The Supreme Court, The Invasion response “SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”
“The federal government has BROKEN THE COMPACT between the United States and the States.
“I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”
Link to declaration -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEoV81DWwAA85zy?format=jpg&name=large
States on record all announcing that they stand with Texas and Gov. Greg Abbott in the border dispute with the federal government include -
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte
Numerous other states have over the past months sent NG and other assistance to TX, but have yet to stand to the latest challenge.
NOTE - The numbers are increasing, pending confirmation of support from other states.
Dems in Congress are calling on Biden to seize control of the TX National Guard.
OBSERVATION - This document - any you gotta read it if you haven’t - expresses clearly and constitutionally the failure of the regime to defend the border and the overwhelming right of the states to step forward to respond to this invasion.
Very key statement is BROKEN THE COMPACT. It forces the divide with the regime and provides cover for NG units to continue to operate in defense of the border - to the point that any attempt to nationalize them would be rendered moot because it would be unconstitutional under the present circumstances.
This leads me to consider the regime’s options - and it is building into a lose/lose scenario for biden. Among some options -
- Sending active duty troops to quell the ‘rebellion’. Politics in an election year would make this a death knell for biden. Very few except for rabid leftists would endorse this action of sending troops to fight citizens over this issue. This would also trigger civilian militas and supporting states to potentially intervene. And that is to believe that the soldiers would willing go off and try to fight other americans. Woke DEI hasn’t gotten all our troops.
- Nationalize the NG. I’m not a lawyer, but commentary from those who are better versed in this indicate that the TXNG could tell the regime to take a hike under the violations of the US Constitution Abbot clearly laid out. Again, the visuals of the action in the lens of a campaign year would not look good.
- Use armed elements of the DHS,FBI, Fed marshals, etc to force access and control. Again - big shoot out doesn’t pllay well with most americans and it will rally support for TX by aligned red states.
- Do nothing but bluster and lie. That is the current trend. However, the press corps (sensing administration blood in the water over its invasion operation) is not letting them off the hook. Press conferences of the past couple days have WH spokescritters throwing all kinds of easily demonstrably false answers and obfuscations out there. As those hit the wires, it will trigger even more negative opinions by the citizenry.
OK, so what is my prognostication? I wish I knew for certain. I don’t think the regime is ready to use the force card, by either the active duty military or armed goons of the alphabet agencies. They may attempt a show of force and try to demand access soon; an effort that would attempt to save face and set the DoJ into actions in the ongoing law fare on the border. When it comes to head on head, the regime seems to weaken. Nationalizing the NG remains a possibility, but the guard may blow that off, citing that it would be an unconstitutional order under the present situation.
I certainly hope the regime is reluctant to force the situation via violent means. To do so would trigger an almost instantaneous civil war across TX as well as core red states.
Biden may hold off announcing an action until the SOTU address in March - a ‘surprise’ action in the works.
Dangerous thought - triggering such an action could be desired - in order to declare martial law and shelve the elections. Very dangerous thought.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Biden admin. is planning to pull US forces out of Syria, Foreign Policy reported. “While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary,” the report added
OBSERVATION - A smaller scale version of Afghanistan developing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Jeff DeWit to resign as Arizona Republican Party chair after recording revealed he offered Kari Lake a bribe not to run for Senate.
OBSERVATION - Republicans were cheated out big time in the AZ elections, and the republican party failed to rise to the occasion to challenge the blatant vote fraud that has been uncovered, way more than enough to have overturned the election results. Who’s funding the ruin of the AZ republican party from the inside?
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
A new poll reveals that immigration is now the leading policy concern among American voters, outpacing inflation and other national issues like economics and jobs.
The poll, conducted by the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies in collaboration with market research and analytics firm The Harvard Poll this January, shows a shift in public sentiment, with 35 percent of respondents identifying immigration as their primary concern this coming election and inflation closely behind at 32 percent.
“Economy and jobs” followed after immigration and inflation, with 25 percent of the votes from respondents. “Crime and drugs” and health care each only garnered 16 percent of the votes from participants, while the deficit and national security got 14 percent. Corruption and the environment rounded out the list, with only 13 percent of respondents highlighting these issues.
OBSERVATION - Quite the timing, with the border issue exploding into a growing standoff between Texas (and aligning states) and biden regime.
***
U.S. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Utah Sen. Mike Lee and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are speaking out about the ongoing negotiations between the regime and McConnell. It has some very deep ugliness -
- Legally establish 5,000 illegal aliens entering the country per day as the new norm, requiring the crisis hit that number before the president could invoke Title 42-esque authority, effectively forcing Americans to, at minimum, accept 1.8 million illegal aliens a year.
- Provide amnesty to a “documented Dreamer” class, taking care of 250,000 people whose parents replaced American workers under the deeply flawed H-1B guest worker program.
- Keep mass parole programs in place — provided illegal immigrants enter through American airports, not at the border.
- Give quicker work permits to illegal aliens likely committing asylum fraud by ending the 180-day wait period.
- Expand the already vast network of free benefits like legal services for illegal aliens—adding to the services American taxpayers already fund to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
— Funnel billions of dollars to the corrupt NGOs that profit off the border crisis by transporting, lodging, and helping illegal aliens enter the country every day.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/24/senate-republican-josh-hawley-mike-lee-ted-cruz-border-deal-leak-proposal/
OBSERVATION - It is also known that McConnell is trying to gain enough Republican support to override any filibuster of the bill. This is a gross sellout of the country and needs to be brought to light.
***
Illegals are now being housed at Logan airport, Boston. The MA Governor previously asked citizens to take illegals into their homes.
MA is the only state with a right-to-shelter law which means the state must provide shelter for anyone who needs it.
OBSERVATION - Numerous rumors out there that are suggesting that these mayors and governors are contemplating forcing citizens to house illegals. The loony left are already making the noise - until, like Martha’s Vineyard, its time for them to house these ungrateful parasites in their multimillion dollar mansions.
China –
China has initiated some actions to try to stabilize their stock markets. This caused a jump in prices yesterday, but questions continue on how long this quick fix will stabilize matters.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 14 Shahed drones overnight
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 91 Ukrainian drones in last 24 hours
The Russian Il-76 shot down the other day continues to be a focus of discussion. Russia claims it contained POWs, Ukraine claims otherwise. OSINT analysts are questioning Russia’s claim based on tracking of the aircraft through the region as well as its actions of the day. Apparently it has been identified in the past as carrying ammunition into the city on a regular basis, and on that day it arrived from the middle east (hardly a POW holding area) and upon take off was headed to Moscow - again, not conducive of a POW exchange story.
The second part of the story involves how Ukraine has creatively deployed Patriot elements for what essentially could be considered to be a ‘hit and run’ operation. Deploy limited elements far far forward to engage Russian air traffic that has been following a definite routine, hit them and then get out of dodge to avoid detection and destruction.
Russian Territory –
In Tuapse, Russia, an energy facility was hit presumably by drones.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire. In this instance, Russia is struggling. Ukraine has come out with longer range drones and they have been reaching out and hitting unprotected petroleum and manufacturing sites. Russia is scrambling to get air defense assets to cover these targets, but with the losses from the war and limited availability of reserve systems, they are getting stretched pretty thin. I’ve noted this before - Russian is a target rich environment for these kinds of attacks, with a lot of territory that air defense is required to protect. In the case of St Petersburg, they are trying to close the barn door after the horses have gotten out.
Some analysts are trying to say Russia is attempting to do similar to Ukraine - thin out the ADA network. Russian problem is Ukraine, though pretty large, is more compact, making necessary ‘thinning’ by Russian attack planners, very difficult. Compactness grants Ukraine the ability to shift elements without significant impacts to the overall ADA network.
Europe / NATO General –
The head of the British army has issued a warning to the people of the United Kingdom to prepare themselves for a war comparable to the major wars of the 20th century and that they may need to mobilize.
General Sir Patrick Sanders said that we must recall the lessons of past conflicts before it is too late, stating that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a foreshadowing of things to come.
OBSERVATION - Continued warnings of impending war by European nations. What are they seeing that most do not?
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Violent armed clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.
Clashes broke out between rioters and Israeli security forces in Al-Fawwar camp, south of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The “Islamic Resistance” announces the targeting of 3 American bases in Iraq and Syria
***
CENTCOM: Houthis Attack Commercial Shipping Vessel with Anti-Ship MissilesOn Jan. 24 at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated container ship M/V Maersk Detroit, transiting the Gulf of Aden. One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107). There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship
Top container shipper AP Moller-Maersk, sent a memo to its customers advising them to brace for complications and disruptions in the Red Sea region. The memo expressed the company’s commitment to contributing to a sustainable resolution while acknowledging the potential for a prolonged impact on the global shipping network.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
British Foreign Minister - It is unrealistic to cease fire while Hamas is able to fire rockets at Israel
***
Iran and Turkey have agreed to back terrorist organizations fighting against Israel, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi proclaimed on Wednesday following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Speaking alongside Erdoğan at the presidential palace in Ankara, Raisi said, “In the talks we had with the Turkish president…we both agreed to support Palestine. We both agreed to support the Islamic resistance in Palestine,” according to Tehran’s semi-official Student News Agency.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Houthi continue to scare shipping away from the Red Sea. Yesterday they attacked a convoy protected by a US destroyer and some reports say that even turned ships back. The operation Poseidon something or other is not hitting the Houthi’s as hard and continually as they need to.
Islamic ‘resistance’ forces may be close to achieving victory in eastern Syria with US leaders reportedly making plans to pull out (borderline RUMINT). Trump initially ordered a pull out under his first term, but the military / diplomats squealed and convinced Trump to change his mind. A pull-out under the current situation - under increasing fire - will be seen by Iran and all its proxies as a victory and encourage them to militarily challenge US forces elsewhere.
Other repercussions? Iran / Syria are not ready to face a resurgent ISIS. Syria throughly bogged down in its civil war and fighting not only rebels, but Turkish intrusions, Kurds and Jordan. Iran is already deeply involved with the Gaza conflict and Houthi support. ISIS, the unintended consequences of forcing the US out of eastern Syria.
bump for later
Probaly pulling troops out of Syria/whereever to attack Texas.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European farmers, as in one voice, say that the green policies and taxes are taking them to the very edge of bankruptcy, in what becomes in all practical terms a ‘manufactured famine’.
While Germany continues to have mass protests, the attention is shifting to France where reports that truckers, fisherman & construction workers are joining the French Farmers in rejecting their Tyrannical Globalist sell-out Government. A key element of this new development is that it appears a blockade of sorts is developing against Paris - trucker boycotts and farm blockades. If successful, supply chains would be seriously disrupted and shop shelves will be bare within as little as three days.
OBSERVATION - Remember, he who controls the food, controls the population. The growing emphasis from the WEF Davos confab is that agriculture must die. The corollary point is that people must be culled as well via a manufactured famine.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
biden regime has given TX until close of business today to surrender the Eagle Pass park. So far, TX has not buckled to that demand and the Lt Gov warned federal agencies not to try anything.
TX guard continues to reinforce the 30 mile stretch at Eagle Pass with more razor wire and fencing. The move does not appear to violate the Supreme Court order, which granted federal ‘permission’ for the removal of existing wire, while saying nothing about adding new barriers.
25 Republican governors have signed onto a letter expressing full support to TX in its standoff with the feds. Including TX, 26 states are now being designated by some as “anti-federalist”. This includes about 147 million citizens. If one were to include the Red counties trapped in blue state control, the numbers of Americans supporting TX grows even more, to probably more than half the country. This compact with TX has these states being designated “anti-federalist” in some circles.
The joint statement reads as follows -
“President Biden and his Administration have left Americans and our country completely vulnerable to unprecedented illegal immigration pouring across the Southern border. Instead of upholding the rule of law and securing the border, the Biden Administration has attacked and sued Texas for stepping up to protect American citizens from historic levels of illegal immigrants, deadly drugs like fentanyl, and terrorists entering our country.
“We stand in solidarity with our fellow Governor, Greg Abbott, and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy, including razor wire fences, to secure the border. We do it in part because the Biden Administration is refusing to enforce immigration laws already on the books and is illegally allowing mass parole across America of migrants who entered our country illegally.
“The authors of the U.S. Constitution made clear that in times like this, states have a right of self-defense, under Article 4, Section 4 and Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution. Because the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has every legal justification to protect the sovereignty of our states and our nation.”
Signatories include: Governor Kay Ivey (AL), Governor Mike Dunleavy (AK), Governor Sarah Sanders (AR), Governor Ron DeSantis (FL), Governor Brian Kemp (GA), Governor Brad Little (ID), Governor Eric Holcomb (IN), Governor Kim Reynolds (IA), Governor Jeff Landry (LA), Governor Tate Reeves (MS), Governor Mike Parson (MO), Governor Greg Gianforte (MT), Governor Jim Pillen (NE), Governor Joe Lombardo (NV), Governor Chris Sununu (NH), Governor Doug Burgum (ND), Governor Mike DeWine (OH), Governor Kevin Stitt (OK), Governor Henry McMaster (SC), Governor Kristi Noem (SD), Governor Bill Lee (TN), Governor Spencer Cox (UT), Governor Glenn Youngkin (VA), Governor Jim Justice (WV), and Governor Mark Gordon (WY).
This developing compact serves as a shot across the bow of the lawless actions of the regime.
Donald Trump said Thursday -
“... We encourage all willing States to deploy their guards to Texas to prevent the entry of Illegals, and to remove them back across the Border,” he posted to Truth Social. “All Americans should support the commonsense measures by Texas authorities to protect the Safety, Security, and Sovereignty of Texas, and of the American people.”
A great deal of speculation as to what the feds will do to enforce their ultimatum. Here they have to tread VERY lightly otherwise they may provoke a shooting event the likes of which hasn’t been seen since CW1. More rabid leftists now calling for the arrest of Abbot and the placement of a new “governor” until the state is pacified. That isn’t going to fly obviously (but in today’s insanity - they may try it). The nationalization of the NG has raised its head also. This brings the developing compact of the ‘anti-federalist’ states into play - will they respond to the beacons with NG deployments to TX to reinforce the state? This would force the regime to potentially ‘nationalize’ a much larger portion of the Guard - and that nationalization decree may be ignored by the states.
RUMINT a foot regarding large numbers of Patriot militia groups mobilizing and headed to TX. The extent of this ‘mobilization’ may well exaggerated at this moment, but it is highly likely that there are many groups enroute to the border region both from within TX as well as supporting states.
Bottom line - biden’s ultimatum has the potential of lighting a fuse that can expand into a much more serious Constitutional crisis than is currently present. Eagle Pass has been on of the illegal crossing points that has seen thousands of illegals cross on a daily basis for much of the past three years. If biden sends his storm troopers in with guns blazing - all heck will break loose.
Final observation - I am recalibrating my thoughts regarding the configuration of the CW2 conflict should it get that far. Last year the trigger appeared to be primarily due to a societal breakdown and general blue v red fight between urban areas and rural, without definite state-level govt involvement to most of the fighting. Picture a 2020 on steroids if you would. This situation now inserts states as a political entity standing up against fed tyrannical power. This is more the classical view of CW some have pushed.
Should things go sideways, I still expect to see urban areas go up in flames as the social welfare/criminal class take advantage of the situation to consolidate gang power and attack those red elements within reach. Rural red areas will keep the rampaging hordes contained in their cities as the resources and cover they have in those areas are stripped away as they move into rural regions and find a much more lethal and prepared opponent.
Never thought I’d live to see things get this far.
***
Example of red areas of blue states fighting back against the tyranny of the left
“While virtually all of the “gun-free zones” challenged by Second Amendment groups as part of their litigation against California’s SB 2 have now been placed on hold thanks to an injunction issued by a federal judge, there are still a few “sensitive places” that weren’t a part of those initial challenges where guns are still prohibited. Among them are government buildings, but supervisors in Shasta County, California voted this week to, in essence, ignore state law and allow concealed carry holders to exercise their right to bear arms in those locations… at least if they’re not employed by the county and on the clock.”
OBSERVATION - Leftist controlled states like Kalifornia will face even more opposition from red, predominantly rural areas as pushback on the infringements of constitutional rights continue. Relates directly to the progress of a CW2 scenario.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
The nation’s economy grew at an unexpectedly brisk 3.3% annual pace from October through December as Americans showed a continued willingness to spend freely despite high interest rates and price levels that have frustrated many households
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — decelerated from its sizzling 4.9% growth rate the previous quarter. But the latest figures still reflected the surprising durability of the world’s largest economy, marking the sixth straight quarter in which GDP has grown at an annual pace of 2% or more. Consumers fueled much of last quarter’s expansion.
For the full year, the economy grew 2.5%, up from 1.9% in 2022.
OBSERVATION - Key aspect is that the main ‘consumer’ has been the US Govt continuing its spending spree. Layoff across the economic spectrum have been increasing - pointing to ever decreasing demands of goods and services by the private sector.
***
On Thursday, the U.S. government sold the Federal Helium Reserve, a massive underground stockpile based in Amarillo, Texas, that supplies up to 30% of the country’s helium.
Once the deal is finalized, the buyer — which will likely be the highest bidder, the industrial gas company Messer — will claim some 425 miles of pipelines spanning Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma, plus about 1 billion cubic feet of the only element on Earth cold enough to make an MRI machine work.
The sale of the government’s stockpile of the nonrenewable element could exacerbate an existing supply shortage.
A number of factors could trigger a shutdown of the facility that could last as long as three years, said Rich Gottwald, CEO of the Compressed Gas Association, a trade group that represents companies, including Messer, that buy up helium and sell it to hospitals, semiconductor manufacturers, NASA and other customers.
The facility spans three states, each with its own laws. The federal government didn’t need to reconcile state-specific rules, but a private buyer would, he said. Another issue is that helium must be enriched before it can be used, and a separate system is needed to do that. That enrichment system isn’t part of the federal reserve, but is privately owned by four private companies, including Messer; unlike the pipelines and helium itself, it wasn’t for sale.
“A new owner will need to create some sort of lease to use the enrichment unit, or build their own unit to enrich the helium,” Gottwald said. “There’s a whole host of issues that need to be resolved and the concern is, until they’re resolved, the system will need to shut down.”
The sale has been in the works for more than a decade. Congress first mandated it through the Helium Stewardship Act of 2013. It was initially supposed to occur in 2021, but a series of delays — in part due to the same logistical and regulatory issues threatening shutdowns today — postponed the auction to Thursday.
OBSERVATION - Timing is everything and it seems that the govt is suddenly pushing this sale through without working thru the transition issues - to the potential detriment of our healthcare system. Another component to add more chaos to the overall system.
***
Last Thursday, Bloomberg reported that federal regulators are preparing a proposal to force US banks to utilize the Federal Reserve’s discount window in preparation for future bank crises. The aim, notes Katanga Johnson, is to remove the stigma around tapping into this financial lifeline, part of the continuing fallout from the failures of several significant regional banks last year.
This new policy is reminiscent of the Fed’s actions during the 2007 financial crisis, where financial authorities encouraged large banks to tap into the discount window, taking loans directly from the Federal Reserve, to make it easier for distressed banks to do the same. The hesitancy from financial institutions to tap into this source of liquidity is justified. If the public believes a bank needs support from the Fed, it is rational for depositors to flee the bank. The Fed’s explicit aim is to provide cover from at-risk banks, trying to hold off bank runs that are an inherent risk in our modern fractional reserve banking system.
OBSERVATION - Financial gurus here could likely make more out of this, but as the article notes - this seems to be actions in anticipation of the next banking crisis. Banks are still at great risk since last spring’s melt down of several major banks. This action is not instilling confidence in the system.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Jeff DeWit resignation as Arizona Republican Party chair and his actions to attempt to bribe Lake into not running for Senate has continued to raise questions of who is the power player behind DeWit’s efforts.
Eyes are beginning to focus on Mitch McConnell. Lake’s American First stance and character would pose a threat to the RINO / Crypto democrat Republicans he leads and upset his apple cart.
***
The Trump asked the RNC not to take action to essentially crown him the party’s presumptive nominee after his substantial wins in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
OBSERVATION - Not really read much of the reasoning behind these actions. On one hand, party unity going into the elections is critical. But I think the real reason is that to call the race so soon puts the Republican party into a situation where they drop out of the political spotlight that these primaries bring. No primaries, no massive Trump rallies, nothing keeping it in the news cycle. A backdoor way to shut down MAGA support from growing? Hmmmm.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
House republicans appear to be accelerating the impeachment process of Mayorkas in part due to the escalating crisis between TX and biden (via Mayorkas lead DHS).
OBSERVATION - Republicans are likely to pass articles of impeachment against Mayorkas, though the Senate is unlikely to convict Mayorkas. Symbolism
***
McConnell’s bipartisan border deal in the US Senate meanwhile faces objections from right and left. This largely due to leaks in the bill that clearly would lock in the tsunami of illegals in for a long time.
OBSERVATION - Now coming into the light and with the present polls indicating that illegal immigration is a concern, it is becoming more and more unlikely that McConnell will gather the republican support to hold off a successful filibuster of the bill.
China –
The most general and also most disturbing news is China’s continuing deflation. According to Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices in December fell 0.3 percent from the year before. That is a slight improvement over the 0.5 percent deflation recorded in November, but it is hard to make too much of these kinds of month-to-month wiggles.
The fact is that prices are in decline and have been declining off and on since March. Producer prices, which the Chinese authorities call “prices at the factory gate,” tell an even more distressing story. These showed a December drop of 2.7 percent from year-ago levels, the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline.
Deflation—especially the consistent and dramatic sort China has suffered—clearly signals insufficient demand.
China’s still very export-dependent economy needs sales to produce acceptable overall growth rates. Exports to the United States in December fell 6.9 percent from year-ago levels, and exports to the European Union fell 1.9 percent. December exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were 6.14 percent lower than year-ago levels.
The property development collapse of the past two years has left in Chinese financial markets a legacy of questionable debt that has hamstrung the nation’s ability to finance new investments—both public and private—and, hence, growth. The real estate collapse has also depressed homebuilding, an area that until recently was a bulwark of the Chinese economy. At the same time, these problems, by depressing home values and so the net worth of Chinese households, have also held back consumer spending, which China needs now, especially with weak exports.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to impact it and places a large target on Xi as he attempts to placate an increasing restless population feeling the pinch of those woes. It further threatens his goals of military build up by sucking money away into trying to hold up the economy and away from military investments - which now seem to be very much misused by corrupt generals.
North/South Korea –
More analysis is being given to NK’s recent war rhetoric as being something more than the historic chest beating by its leadership.
Kim ordered a monument meant to symbolize hope for reunification torn down.
“Kim last week described the Pyongyang monument as an “eyesore” and called for its removal while declaring that the North was abandoning long-standing goals of a peaceful unification with South Korea and ordered a rewriting of the North’s constitution to define the South as its most hostile foreign adversary.”
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/01/25/something-really-has-changed-in-north-korea-n607423
U.S. officials to NYT have stated that North Korea could conduct lethal military actions against South Korea in the coming months. South Korean officials previously warned of this possibility, and they don’t rule out it could occur near the upcoming South Korean elections (which will occur in April) or later in the year.
OBSERVATION - While Kim has been calling on his country to prepare for war over the past several years, I’m willing to give the analysts the benefit of the doubt that he is indeed turned a corner and moving forward beyond rhetoric to actual war planning and eventual execution. His growing strategic arsenal including nukes would be the base for his military operations. His ground pounders as still suffering from poor, outdated equipment and lack of training (they have been forced in recent years to work in the fields to grow food for themselves).
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
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RUMINT-
Putin reportedly offering an end to the war, granting Ukraine NATO membership, but has to concede territory captured to Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down Kh-59 missile in Mykolaiv region, otherwise slow drone / missile day for both sides.
Russian Territory –
Big explosion reported in Vyborg of Leningrad region, possible Ukraine drone strike.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement. Recent warming in some parts of the front will delay that freezing.
Europe / NATO General –
Mass demonstrations in Slovakia against the new pro-russian government. The demonstrations have been going on for over a week now and are continuing to grow.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICJ rules against Israel and for S Africa
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
British Foreign Secretary - There is progress towards stopping the fighting in Gaza, bringing in aid and liberating the hostages
The International Court of Justice, on a 15 to 2 vote, demands Israel take all measures to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza. The ICJ also calls on Hamas to immediately release all hostages and has not ordered a ceasefire in its interim ruling.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis.
In N Gaza, fierce firefights broke out between IDF and Hamas elements as Israel struggles to prevent infiltration of previously secured areas by Hamas.
Hamas’ supply of 20,000 rockets at the start of the war has dwindled to a few hundred, security sources estimate. In the first four hours of the October 7 attack, Hamas fired 3,000 rockets and mortars towards Israel. In total, over the course of the war, around 9,000 rockets crossed into Israeli territory. IDF operations have significantly reduced the supply of rockets which the terror groups still hold. In order to further reduce Hamas’ abilities to manufacture rockets during the fighting, and reduce the ability to fire rockets on the “day after” the war ends, the IDF is focusing on locating the rocket manufacturing sites.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
The IDF on Thursday attacked a key Hezbollah-Iranian airstrip in Kilat Jaber, Lebanon, that was used for launching aerial attacks against Israel, in a major escalation between the sides.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel’s Minister of Economy Nir Barkat hinted at a possible expansion of war in the Middle East by reportedly saying Wednesday that Iran is a “legitimate target” for Israeli missile strikes.
“Iran is a legitimate target for Israel,” Barkat told The Telegraph. “They will not get away with it. The head of the snake is Tehran. My recommendation is to adopt the strategy that President [John F.] Kennedy used in the Cuban missile crisis. What he basically said then was a missile from Cuba will be answered with a missile to Moscow.
“And we should very, very clearly make sure the Iranians understand that they will not get away with using proxies against Israel and sleep good at night if we don’t sleep good at night.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nirbarkat-israel-iran/2024/01/25/id/1151019/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A second French warship has arrived in the Red Sea region as part of efforts to ensure freedom of navigation, the French army said on Thursday.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Hamas infiltration back into the north is causing IDF some problems. Whether by tunnels, going to ground or disguised as refugees moving back, they have thrown a wrench into IDF efforts to stabilize and secure the north.
Iran –
This round of the Assembly of Experts is expected to select the next Supreme Leader, given that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is nearly 85 and has been sick repeatedly.
Iran’s Guardian Council’s decision this week to disqualify virtually all “pragmatists,” including former president Hassan Rouhani, from public office makes ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran’s proxies a virtual certainty, and war more likely than ever.
At stake on March 1 are both the parliamentary elections as well as elections for the 88-member, eight-year term Assembly of Experts.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-783774
OBSERVATION - Look to hard liners to rise to the top as Iran surges its efforts against Israel and the West.
Iraq -
The U.S. and Iraq will “in the coming days” begin discussions on the future of American and Coalition troops in that troubled county, according to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani put it more bluntly earlier this month, releasing a statement saying the talks were to “end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently.”
OBSERVATION - This combined with growing speculation that the regime is planning to pull out of eastern Syria indicates a potential full retreat from the region. This is in essence a win for Iran against the US and the west.