Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
According to a new poll, nearly 90 percent of ivy league grads support the “strict” rationing of gas, meat and electricity to fight climate change.
That’s 90%! “Strict rationing!”
The poll, conducted by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, is titled “Them vs. U.S.: The two Americas and how the nation’s elite is out of touch with average Americans.”
It was intended to assess the beliefs of “elites.”
According to the College Fix, the poll was comprised of two surveys of 1,000 folks each conducted in late 2023, and the “Elites” were defined as “people having at least one post-graduate degree, earning at least $150,000 annually, and living in high-population density areas.”
The Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CUP) found that:
“An astonishing 77% of the Elites – including almost 90% of the Elites who graduated from the top universities – favor rationing of energy, gas, and meat to combat climate change.”
This is starkly at odds with the will of all Americans, 63% of whom oppose this policy. It is shameful and embarrassing that so many “elite” Americans have drunk the Kool-Aid — and bent the knee at the altar of progressivism. These are folks that would be more at home attending the World Economic Forum in Davos than a country music concert in Des Moines. And would then fly back to the U.S. to snob the rest of us and bitch about the carbon footprints of lawnmowers and farmers.
Incredibly, CUP also found that nearly six in 10 “elites” say there is too much individual freedom in America.
OBSERVATION - These silver spoon raised individuals have not clue, given that they expect to maintain their standard of living that they would deny to us peons. They really don’t know what it means to work for a living or how their actions/decisions affect others around them. They have become the epitome of narcissistic arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
This has been out there a few days, but the volume of material I was dealing with at the time forced me to back burner it.
A huge MAGA truck convoy called ‘Army of God’ is heading toward the southern border as experts ring the alarms over the border crisis after a record 302,000 migrants crossed over into the US.
The massive convoy of truckers is making its way to three migrant hotspots across three states in a bid to shame the White House into tackling the worsening crisis.
OBSERVATION - Symbolism, not to say this rally isn’t worth it, but it does serve warning to the regime that TX’s fight against the illegal tsunami has growing, national level support. There have been concerns that the regime will try to manipulate this into a second j6 style ‘insurrection’. It would be a challenge to do so. Their best play would be to ignore it and have their MSM allies do the same.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
This report has been out there a few days, able now to circle back to evaluating it more.
Ten former FBI officials signed a letter describing the present danger the U.S. faces from President Joe Biden’s border policy and raising serious concerns about a “specific threat that may be one of the most pernicious ever to menace the United States.”
The letter was signed last week and sent to leaders in the House and Senate before it was shared by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Thursday. In it, the former FBI officials address a “new and unfamiliar” threat facing the country as “military aged men from across the globe” easily enter the U.S. “across a border that has been accurately advertised around the world as largely unprotected with ready access.”
“It would be difficult to overstate the danger represented by the presence inside our borders of what is comparatively a multi-division army of young single adult males from hostile nations and regions whose background, intent, or allegiance is completely unknown,” the letter states.
“In light of such a daunting, unprecedented penetration by uninvited foreign actors, it is reasonable to assert that the country possesses dramatically diminished national security at this time,” the letter continues. “The nation’s military and laws and other natural protective barriers that have provided traditional security in the past have been thoroughly circumvented over the past three years.”
OBSERVATION - There have been many voices raising warnings of the clear and present danger from these military aged males that have been allowed to enter this country and roam around unmonitored. Whether or not they are going to operate under the Deep Swamp’s direction, or independently is unknown. I’ll note again, the purchase of weapons, ammo and gear by obscure govt agencies for their own ‘security’ elements - in far excess of any conceivable requirement - may be a source to arm these illegals to do the dirty work of the marxist democrats across the country.
***
RUMINT that Houthi rebels have engaged in covert discussions with Al-Qaeda, exploring potential collaboration on coordinated actions, including suicide attacks against Western targets, according to western media sources.
OBSERVATION - The demonstrated weakness of US foreign policy and military application was bound to generate potential action like this. AQ and even ISIS has been recovering over the past three years of the biden regime’s blundering foreign and in particular middle east policies. The world is becoming less safe.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
Going into this week’s two-day policy meeting, which wraps Wednesday afternoon in Washington, investors are assigning roughly even odds to the prospect that the US central bank will start lowering borrowing costs at its next decision in March.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The stage is set for the Fed to take steps toward cutting rates in coming months. We expect the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate target range in March as it attempts to stick a soft landing.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-decision-could-prelude-210000975.html
OBSERVATION - The effort to spin this as a ‘soft landing’ continues. I cannot help but to view these reports as putting lipstick on a pig - given there are so many other factors that are converging at an unprecedented rate to screw such a ‘soft landing’ propaganda to aid biden’s campaign.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Remember when folks like Fauci were arrogantly promoting the jab and condemning the unjabbed - seemingly doing so expecting no fallout. Well in an interview returning to the light of day, Fauci spills the beans on it all -
“Once people feel empowered and protected legally, you are going to have schools, universities and colleges say, ‘you want to come to this college, buddy? You’re gonna get vaccinated ...
It’s been proven that when you make it difficult for people in their lives, they lose their ideological bull**** and they get vaccinated.”
OBSERVATION - Never, never forget what these medical tyrants did to Americans (and others across the world). Give no quarter or forgiveness as they now circle back with their empty apologies for their now totally repudiated actions THAT THEY NEW WERE LIES TO BEGIN WITH.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Donald Trump’s legal team is set to use a previously undisclosed “conflict of interest” as grounds for appealing a recent verdict that orders the former president to pay advice columnist E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million. Trump attorney Alina Habba told the New York Post she was previously unaware that Manhattan federal Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the case, worked with Roberta Kaplan, Carroll’s attorney, at the Paul Weiss Rifkin, Wharton & Garrison law firm in the early 1990s. Habba says neither the judge nor Roberta Kaplan revealed this professional history. “It was never disclosed. It’s insane and so incestuous,” Habba said, asserting the non-disclosure counts as an ethics violation. Early in her career, Roberta worked as an associate at the firm during the same period as Judge Kaplan, who was a partner until his 1994 appointment to the federal bench by then-President Bill Clinton.
OBSERVATION - These kinds of links are popping up all over in the various Trump prosecutions. While these original trials now stand a stronger likelihood of being tossed, they serve the liberal purpose of casting poop on Trump as the appeals will only get marginal at best coverage.
***
The Arizona Republican Party selected a new Trump-supported chair on Saturday after the former chair resigned following a bribery controversy.
Ms. Swoboda was elected at the annual GOP meeting held at Dream City Church in north Phoenix on Saturday which was attended by over 1,000 people. However, the sudden resignation of former Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit due to bribery allegations triggered an urgent election to select a new chair.
According to Sen. Wendy Rogers (R-Ariz.), Ms. Swoboda secured 67 percent of votes to emerge victorious and become the new chair of the Arizona Republican Party.
OBSERVATION - There is a new reason for hope that AZ republicans will regain some backbone against the democrat corruption machine that has managed to take power.
However, I still want to know WHO was backing the $$$$ that DeWit waved under Lake’s nose to encourage her to step out of the Senate race.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden continues to be let out to publicly embarrass himself with his ranting political speeches that degrade into incoherent ramblings of unintelligent or understandable words.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Tensions within the Oklahoma GOP have reached a boiling point as the state party’s leadership passed a resolution on Saturday to condemn U.S. Senator James Lankford for his involvement in an outrageous border security deal with Democrats.
The resolution, passed with immediate effect, states that the party will withhold all support for Senator Lankford until he ceases his involvement with the proposed legislation.
The resolution cites several concerns, notably Senator Lankford’s collaboration with Senator Chuck Schumer on a deal allegedly permitting 5,000 illegal immigrants per day to enter and work in the United States. This figure translates to approximately 155,000 illegal immigrants each month, amounting to an annual total of 1.8 million.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/oklahoma-gop-passes-resolution-condemn-censure-sen-james/
OBSERVATION - Good call by the OK GOP - Lankford needs to be primaries out of office at the next available election - or forced to resign by what ever means necessary. This abomination of a immigration ‘reform’ plan should never see the light of day.
***
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson implemented a policy that gives illegal migrants a 60-day shelter limit before they are forced to take up space elsewhere. The city’s sixteen aldermen, including close allies of Johnson, sent a letter to the mayor urging him to terminate his policy, claiming it “poses a significant threat to the health and safety of new arrivals.”
The policy was due to take effect in mid-January but was delayed due to the city’s wicked cold temperatures.
At least 2,000 illegal migrants are set to be evicted if the policy is enforced on February 1. That number is expected to grow to about 6,000 people by the following week. The letter argues the city must delay evictions until the warmer months and instead focus on helping illegal aliens become independent.
Since 2022, at least 608 buses have arrived from Texas by Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), with more than 34,000 illegal migrants landing in Chicago. As of January 16, there are 28 shelters in operation within the city, holding roughly 14,967 immigrants. On February 1, 7,842 illegal immigrants will receive eviction notices.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/01/27/dem-chicago-mayor-sides-with-the-right-n2634263
OBSERVATION - Forcing liberal ‘sanctuary’ cities and states to confront the realities of the illegal tsunami that is affecting border states is one unexpected consequence of biden’s policies. The Chicago mayor is also facing heat from the predominately black community over diversion of ‘their’ social welfare programs and perks and giving them over to these illegal aliens in a preferential manner.
***
Chicago isn’t the only blue city suffering the consequences of their sanctuary city status and support for the regimes open border policy.
The City of Denver will begin ordering foreign national migrants in its shelter system to leave on Feb. 5 after they have spent a certain number of days in facilities, according to multiple reports.
Denver is the top destination, per capita, for foreign migrants who have crossed the country’s international border with Mexico and been ferried to their jurisdiction by buses paid for by the State of Texas, with over 40,000 having arrived, according to a report by NBC News. Due to overcrowding, the city will begin evicting individuals who have remained in the system for 42 days, according to a Jan. 17 report by Denverite, a local news organization.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/27/denver-cracks-down-taking-more-migrants-per-capita-anywhere-else/
OBSERVATION - Of course the big question for both cities is just WHERE will these kicked out illegals go? Secondary and tertiary results of the open border dumpster fire limits that.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Logistics –
Two years of fighting in Ukraine have destroyed the Russian tank force. This was unexpected, as was the Russian inability to replace their tank losses. Ukraine’s success against Russian tanks and armored vehicles revived predictions that tanks were obsolete. Tanks are still relevant, and the Russian losses were the result of poor employment of armored units as well as design features of Russian tanks that make them much more vulnerable than Western tanks like the American M1, German Leopard or Israeli Merkava.
Most Russian armored vehicles were lost while they were on the move, or stationery without adequate infantry support. The first Russian armored units going into Ukraine were told the population would be friendly or neutral. The reality was that the Ukrainians were well armed, hostile, and using tactics the Russians were unaware of and unprepared to deal with. As a result, thousands of Russian vehicles were destroyed in the first month, most of them armored, including some of the most modern Russian tanks plus some ancient models taken from storage facilities for obsolete tanks that might be useful in an emergency. The Ukraine War proved to be that emergency.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htarm/articles/20240128.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
4 of 8 Shahed drones were shot down overnight. Russian army also launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Poltava region and 3 S-300 at Donetsk region which were not intercepted.
Russian claimed overnight to have captured Tabaivka of Kharkiv region, northern end of the eastern front.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
There are increasing reports of Ukraine giving up ground to Russian attacks along various portions of the front. A major contributor to these losses is the shortage of artillery rounds that Ukraine has relied on over the past year to interdict and stop Russian forces. Russia has been able to rebuild some of its artillery corps and become more aggressive in the absence of devastating Ukraine counter battery fire adding to the russian attack successes.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA faces additional scrutiny over its affiliations with Hamas.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on donor states to guarantee the flow of vital aid to Gaza after several halted funding to the agency, UNRWA, over Israeli claims that some of its staff participated in the October 7 attacks.
UNRWA said on Friday it had fired several employees over Israel’s unspecified accusations about the involvement of some of its staff in Hamas’s October 7 attack.
Donors including Germany, Britain, Italy, Australia and Finland on Saturday followed the lead of the United States, which said it had suspended additional funding to the agency over the accusations.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called on UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini to quit after saying earlier the body “must be replaced with agencies dedicated to genuine peace and development”.
https://www.newsmax.com/headline/israel-intensive-fighting/2024/01/28/id/1151255/
OBSERVATION - There were those who were active participants, and there were likely many more who were passive participants, providing support to Hamas. Those ‘employees’ need to be gone as well. Heck, dismantle UNRWA all together as an unredeemably corrupted organization.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.
Fighting has intensified in N Gaza as IDF encounters more pockets of Hamas forces as it continues to work to clean up the sector.
Reports are indicating that as much as 80% of Hama’s 300 mile tunnel network are still intact. An additional 40% are estimated to have been severely damaged. Since the start of the war, IDF has destroyed tens of miles of tunnels, but reports are they keep discovering networks they were not aware of. IDF and government predicted from the start that the war would take a year, planning by then to destroy the entire network as part of the goal to disable Hamas’ military abilities and its control of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
The Israeli army is conducting military exercises to “raise readiness” on the border with Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed militias targeted three U.S. military bases in the past few hours,. They attacked the Tanf base twice and the Shaddadi base in northeastern Syria.
***
Rashad al-Alimi, the internationally-recognized President of Yemen, has called on the United States and Saudi Arabia to take decisive action to “eliminate” the military capabilities of Houthi rebels. “Every time a step is taken towards peace, the Huthis and their Iranian supporters create a new problem.”
***
A British warship, the HMS Diamond, repelled a drone attack on Saturday from Yemen’s Houthi group in the Red Sea, British officials said.
“Deploying her Sea Viper missile system, Diamond destroyed a drone targeting her with no injuries or damage sustained to Diamond or her crew,” the Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Sunday.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Houthi - the headline almost pushing the rest of the Gaza war off the radar. One doesn’t win wars by fighting defensively - you got to go on the offense. The US and allies haven’t - probably in large part by the biden regime’s desire not to anger Iran. Soon one of these missiles or drones are going to get past one of these warship’s defenses, just like they did to strike ‘protected’ cargo ships.
Iran –
Iran has reportedly achieved a significant milestone in its space program by launching three satellites simultaneously using the Simorgh (Phoenix) satellite carrier rocket, as per Iranian state media on Sunday.
The two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh (Phoenix) rocket carried the satellites and placed them in a minimum orbit of 450 kilometers (280 miles). There have been five consecutive failed launches for the Simorgh program, a satellite-carrying rocket.
The Mahda satellite, which weighs about 32 kilograms and was developed by Iran’s space agency, is designed to test advanced satellite subsystems, the official IRNA news agency said.
Isa Zarepour, Iran’s minister of information and communications technology, said Mahda has already sent signals back to Earth.
The other two, Kayhan 2 and Hatef, weigh less than 10 kilograms each and are designed to test space-based positioning technology and narrow-band communications, IRNA added.
OBSERVATION - Iran is continuing its technological advancements, particularly in the realm of missile/rocket technology. Gone are the days of laughing at Iran’s efforts to build military parity with the region.
oops, ping to the above
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Post Davos ripples of distain from the elites still traveling outward. Another interesting usage of the phrase ‘protecting democracy’ put forth by the elites in regards to their definition of ‘misinformation’. One has to ask - who the heck elected them to be our representatives. The answer is NO ONE. Remember that as the term ‘protect democracy’ gets floated around.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
No significant changes in the standoff. The closure has significantly cut down illegal penetration into Texas, with a lot of it being shifted to the west and into NM, AZ and CA. All three are leftist run and unlikely to take aggressive measures to protect its citizens like TX.
***
See Terrorism warning below. Attached to it may well be a rise in pro-hamas and associated pro-islam protests across the country in opposition to any US airstrikes on Iran. These protests could spring up quickly and spontaneously at first, with larger and more organized protests and potential rioting after a few days. Political targets across the spectrum - no one specific party to be singled out, though suspect that the preponderance will be directed against the biden regimen since they are calling the military shots.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
Warning - impending military action against Iranian assets for the overnight attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
***
Market watching fed actions in the meetings starting tomorrow.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) departed San Diego, Calif., last week to begin its deployment. Currently listed in the Mid-Pacific, likely headed west. With it are the following -
USS Lake Erie (CG-70)
Destroyer Squadron 23 consisting of -
- USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), homeported at Naval Station Everett, Wash.
- USS Halsey (DDG-97), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
- USS Daniel Inouye (DDG-118),
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden thinks his son is buried outside of Paris and Trump refused to honor his grave. Biden is mentally compromised.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called for a “meaningful pathway to citizenship” on Monday night amid efforts by President Joe Biden and Congressional leadership to try and reach a bipartisan national security deal that would fund border enforcement efforts and unlock military aid for Ukraine.
During an interview with CNN’s Laura Coates on Monday, Harris discussed the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, referring to it as a “long-standing problem.”
“There’s no question that our immigration system is broken,” Harris said. “And so much so, that as the first bill that we offered after our inauguration, was to fix the immigration system, which included what we must do to create a pathway for citizenship and to put the resources that are needed into the border. But sadly, people on the other side of the aisle have been playing politics with this issue.”
OBSERVATION - Clear example of the employment of the Hegelian Dialectic, in which the crisis is created and the ‘solution’ offered comes from those who created the crisis in the first place.
***
Two articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas were released by House Republicans on Sunday.
Republicans said they will quickly move forward to try to oust Mayorkas from office.
OBSERVATION - This, sadly, is mostly for show since the Senate will not convict and Mayorkas will remain in his position. It does serve to bolster the republicans claims of border treason by the administration in the upcoming elections. Recent polls indicate that the public sees the border as its most significant concern as the complications of handing the 6 million plus illegals that have come across the border start negatively impacting blue cities and states.
China –
Debt-laden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.
Judge Linda Chan said “enough is enough” after the troubled developer repeatedly failed to come up with a plan to restructure its debts.
The firm has been the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with more than $300bn (£236bn) of debt.
When Evergrande defaulted two years ago it sent shockwaves through global financial markets.
Evergrande’s executive director, Shawn Siu, described the decision as “regrettable”, but said the company would continue to operate in mainland China.
While any potential impact of the ruling on Evergrande’s home building business is currently unclear, the crisis at the company has already left many home buyers waiting for their new properties.
Beijing has previously sought to temper public concern about the property crisis as people have taken to Chinese social media sites such as Weibo to share their frustrations about developers like Evergrande.
The court’s decision is also likely to send further ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.
China’s property sector contributes roughly a quarter of the world’s second biggest economy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67562522?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
OBSERVATION - This is another big hit to the Chinese economy already suffering substantial other woes. The decision as noted affects mostly Hong Kong, but will clearly ripple thru the Chinese economy as well.
North/South Korea –
The New York Times is reporting that the Kim Jong-un government has plans for escalation, saying that it will soon launch some kind of lethal military action against the south, but will still seek to avoid a full-scale war.
“North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted to a policy of open hostility” U.S. officials say.
US officials indicated the recent spate of more aggressive statements from Kim should be taken seriously. “While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation,” the report continued.
“They pointed to North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 as an example,” NYT noted. “The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides as well as civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.”
Something which came dangerously close to the 2010 deadly exchange of fire actually happened earlier this month. On Jan.5 North Korea fired over 200 artillery rounds off its West coast which landed near the South’s Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong Islands
OBSERVATION - Taking a deep breath. Very dangerous game of chicken as once you take lethal action, it is very hard to put the genie back in the bottle and prevent full on war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian claims that they continue to sell their oil at pre-sanctions levels turned out to be optimistic. The problems are that Russia didn’t build pipelines to its two largest customers, China, and India, before the Ukraine war, and now can’t because it lacks the means given the impact of Western sanctions. Those sanctions also mean higher costs for delivering oil to existing customers, plus customers now demand lower prices because of the sanctions risk. In the worst cases Russian receives half the world price for their oil. In the best situations there is still a ten or 20 percent discount. There is a similar situation with shipments of liquid natural gas/LNG.
The worst aspect of all this is that Russian oil sales are now barely profitable. Russia depends on those profits to pay for oil and gas exploration and the construction of new oil and gas extraction and delivery systems, plus maintenance of existing oil and gas infrastructure. The government is so desperate that they have raised prices for Russian customers using oil and natural gas. This adds to the already high inflation in Russia and is very unpopular with the Russian public. Even that is not enough, and Russia’s gas and oil companies continue to suffer enormous losses. In 2023 the losses amounted to $10 billion and in 2024 there are expected to be similar losses. The national oil company cannot maintain, improve, or expand its extraction and delivery systems without those profits.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20240129.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 8 Shahed drones, Russian army also launched Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 S-300 missiles.
Ukraine launched drones at the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, but they reportedly didn’t hit their target.
Russia continues to launch large ‘meat assaults’ in the Avdiivka region, suffering heavy casualties and achieving no gains. Ukraine announced a counter attack in the Avdiivka region, conflict still ongoing and no reports of any success for failure.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Seeing elevated reports of Russian killed/wounded in recent days coming out of the Ukraine govt. These are estimates however, the preponderance of Russian attacks across all fronts have been the previously noted “meat attacks” - human wave assaults poorly supported (if at all ) by any tanks, armor or artillery. The lead elements of these assaults are Z units composed of conscripted prisoners trying to earn their freedom from their jail sentences. They are often reportedly followed by ‘enforcer’ elements - shooting any Z troopers who attempt to retreat under fire.
Europe / NATO General –
Brussels has drawn up a plan to sabotage Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán blocks a €50bn aid package to Ukraine this week, according to a secret internal document that was released to the press that lays out Budapest’s economic weaknesses and how to exploit them.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA scandal continues.
- “Islamic Resistance” attack kills three US servicemen in Jordan, injures dozens others.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
UNRWA warns - “Our services in Gaza may stop within a month”
On Friday, in response to allegations that employees of the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) had been involved in Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, the State Department announced that it had “temporarily paused additional funding” for the United Nations agency. The funding pause, however, applies only to new and additional funding, not funding already obligated before the pause went into effect on Wednesday, a State Department spokesperson told Pluribus.
NOTE - This is essentially continuing the funding for the corrupt UNRWA operations in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis. However, Hamas is running out of places to hide and forces to fight with.
Heavy IAF airstrikes in N Gaza overnight.
Hamas managed to shoot two (2) rockets, one shot down, the other impacted in uninhabited area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army launched raids on the Damascus countryside a short while ago. Syrian sources report aerial bombardment targeted farms extending between the areas of Aqraba and Sayyida Zeinab, south of Damascus.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis announced the firing of a missile at the US warship “Lewis P. Puller” in the Gulf of Aden
See Iran below on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attack that killed 3 US service members in Jordan.
Yemen’s Houthi delegation meets in Moscow with the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, where they discussed the situation in the region as well as the importance of intensifying efforts to pressure the United States and Israel to stop war in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi top negotiator says on messaging platform X.
NOTE - Russia/Iranian ties have increased since the start of the Gaza war, and as one of Iran’s proxy forces, the Houthi are welcomed into that increased cooperation forum.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
US weakness has cost US lives. Now, in addition to the Houthi holding the US navy at bay, so called “islamic resistance” forces have killed US soldiers. US desires to keep Iran happy are now costing us dearly and this will only make matters worse.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
This is what happens when you try to coddle favor with a declared enemy of the US and what $6 Billion in pay offs buys.
U.S. military announced three American troops were killed and as many as 50 injured in a drone attack in Jordan on Sunday. The service personnel were sleeping in a canvas tent when the attack occurred.
“Tower 22”, the U.S. base in NE Jordan overlooks a Syrian refugee camp called Rukban, where 15,000 people have been living for years. There are approximately 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel deployed to the base, conducting a number of key support functions, including support to the coalition for the lasting defeat of ISIS. It is also near the Al-Tanf Garrison, where a couple hundred U.S. troops are based.
The group that will claim responsibility calls themselves the “Islamic Resistance of Iraq,” but that’s really a post Oct 7 umbrella group of IRGC sponsored militias. The actual attackers were likely Kateeb Hizballah with support of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujab and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq.
Tehran has claimed that it was not involved in the drone attack. Biden said the attack was carried out by “radical Iran-backed militant groups,” while many US politicians blamed Tehran directly. UK Foreign Minister David Cameron similarly pointed to the Islamic Republic, urging it to “de-escalate in the region.”
“As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding the war crimes and genocide,” Kanaani said. “They do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran. These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”
Biden promised a response to the deaths of Americans. “We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - This attack doesn’t surprise me. As I’ve been stating, the US has failed to respond to the now over 100 attacks on US personnel/bases in the Syria/Iraq and now Jordan region in a substantial manner. It was only a matter of time before they managed to score a jackpot.
This attack was done under the cover of the Gaza war and the “independent” response of Iranian backed militia groups. I’ve noted that long before the Gaza conflict, Iran and Syria were working on plans to drive US forces out of Syria and Iraq using these same militias.
Iran can only hide behind the curtain of ‘independent’ operations of these militias. IRGC officers and support are present in all these units, as well as supplying the weapons and munitions - including the drone(s) used overnight.
There is a great deal of RUMINT regarding IRGC leadership elements scrambling to relocate to avoid US airstrikes. Further rumors that even some Syrian and Russian advisors are relocating as well.
It was noted last evening by OSINT folks that at least 10 US air refueling tankers took off towards Europe and possible middle eastern destinations. The numbers were out of the ordinary though some seem to think it is part of a normal rotation of assets or support for the ongoing NATO exercise. No air tankers were noted on any return trip to the US,, making the rotation theory shaky. The NATO exercise started last week, so why now the surge in air tankers? Were they ‘dragging’ US heavy bombers like the B1 and B2?
Many voices in congress are calling for a military strike on Iran in response to the attack. biden called his security council together over night to decide on responses to the attack.
Worst case scenario - biden attempts to conduct a limited attack on Iranian forces but his bungling national defense team screws it up again and results in closure of the Straits of Hormuz and a lot more US casualties. Iran could also use the attack to justify going the last distance and enriching uranium to the 90% level needed for a bomb. Even worse case scenario - setting a bomb off against US forces. That would literally cause the region to blow up (no pun intended) as Israel would then respond to stop further nuclear developments and Iran would unleash Hezbollah.
Any US response that isn’t massive and through will only confirm to the mullahs that the US is now a paper tiger, weak and unwilling to put up a meaningful fight. Thus encouraging more emboldened attacks.
See also Terrorism and CW2 above for more potential Iranian actions against the US.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday that he has proposed the signing of a non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan, pending a comprehensive peace treaty between the arch-foe Caucasus neighbours.
Yerevan and Baku have fought two wars – in 2020 and in the 1990s – over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan recaptured in a lightning offensive last year.
“We have presented Azerbaijan with a proposal for a mutual arms control mechanism and the signing of a non-aggression pact if the signature of a peace treaty encounters delays,” Pashinyan said in a speech during an Armenian Army Day celebration event.
OBSERVATION - Russia essentially abandoned Armenia due to the Ukraine war, leaving it to flap in the wind when facing a much larger Azeri army. Azerbaijan may or may not in the long term, honor this pact if they sign it - being islamic, they tend to redefine and honor treaties as they see fit.
Misc of Note –
Folks January is almost closed out and the situation here in the US is coming unglued at an unprecedented pace. Now facing a potential regional conflict with Iran and its proxy forces, we are not prepared to do what is necessary to put them in their box, and this will cost us dearly in the near and long term.
We also faced a kickoff of a potential ‘hot’ civil war situation in TX - outcome still up in the air.
Lawfare against Trump has exposed corruption on the part of prosecutors and judges at a previously inconceivable level.
Chaos is permitting other insidious actions by the regime to move forward, such as knifing European allies in the back by pausing the LNG promises and development.
This is a whole years worth of stuff - plus a lot of other items I haven’t mentioned - crammed into one month. The year is still young.