Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Countdown going big - 7 days out from election day.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024

Americans should prepare for “unrest’ if former President Donald Trump completes the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, Democrats told the Wall Street Journal on Monday.
The potential for Democrats to perpetrate political violence undermines their narrative that Republicans, and especially the America First movement, are a threat to democracy.

“I think there’ll be some violence. I think there’ll be workplace fights. There’ll be fights at kids’ birthday parties. I think they’ll be protests and will turn violent,” Mark Halperin recently told Tucker Carlson

Resistance groups, according to the Journal’s Joshua Chaffin and Valerie Bauerlein, believe citizens should be “bracing for unrest” if Trump wins:

“Across America, more than a dozen progressives in various positions of influence told The Wall Street Journal that they are dreading the prospect of Trump’s return to power, and dismayed that half the country might see a completely different reality than they see. Some are bracing for unrest. On a recent evening, more than 200 people joined a Zoom meeting titled Mass Training For Women’s Safety Teams—hosted by a Women’s March veteran who noted its timing amid “escalating political violence.””

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/28/brace-unrest-if-donald-trump-wins-democrats-warn/

OBSERVATION - Recent “nazi” rhetoric amplified by the MSM is priming the democrat left for violence. This suggests that the goal is to bring in those outside the operational realm of the Antifa / BLM terrorists of 2020. This violence could be well seeded by false flag events trying to pin things on the right - the ‘domestic terror threat’ repeated day after day by the DoJ and other alphabet agencies of the regime, as a potential justification for martial law.

***
Obama: If you’re a Muslim American and you’re upset about what’s happening in the Middle East, why would you put your faith in somebody who passed a Muslim ban and repeatedly suggested that you aren’t part of our American community?

OBSERVATION - Another avenue of priming the pump for post election violence. The pro-islamic radicals that rallied this past spring on college campuses are looking for an excuse.
Note - 0bama failed to remember harris had a moslem kicked out of a recent rally.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Color me skeptical, but don’t believe at face value news that harris’ campaign is in disarray and coming apart at the edges. Keep fighting.

***
Ballot boxes in Antifa strongholds of Oregon and Washington were set on fire over the past couple days, destroying hundreds of ballots.

OBSERVATIONS - Crosses over to CW2. Antifa et al has been very out spoken in their Pacific NW stronghold region desiring to disrupt the election by any means necessary. Random destruction of ballot boxes - likely filled with votes from sympathetic voters - is one means of expression.

***
Voting ‘anomalies ‘ are hitting swing states. This time around, due in large part to trump’s emphasis to vote early, they are being exposed sooner, allowing legal challenges and corrections before Nov 5th.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Walz’s affair with a daughter of a Chinese party member is breaking. His ‘teaching’ time in China got him in pretty deep with the CCP.

Illegal Immigration –

41 out of 49 looters arrested in a Florida county for looting after the hurricane were illegals.

North/South Korea –

North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia mostly in their early 20s, some in their teens: South Korean spy agency

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will send delegation to South Korea to coordinate action on North Korea troop deployment: Seoul

Russia -

Logistics –

Israel’s destruction of Iran’s capability to produce ballistic missiles has reportedly cause Iran to pause its delivery of such to Russia for an indeterminate period of time.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

The Pentagon now assesses North Korea has sent ~10,000 total forces to train inside Russia, Dep Pent PressSec said this morning. “A portion of those soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine,” she said

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight.
Out of 48 launched, 46 were shot down. 26 via regular air defense and 20 due to electronic warfare. One drone returned to Russia.

The United States will not impose new limits on Ukraine’s use of American weapons if North Korea enters the fight, the Pentagon said on Monday, as NATO said North Korean military units had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.
(reuters)

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian Ministry of Defence reports 10 drones were shot down over Kursk region this afternoon

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Selydove town of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bohoyavlenka, Hirnyk and Katerynivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Russian Territory –

A Ukraine strike on the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes is the first drone attack on targets in Chechnya.

Outlook —

Brutal fighting continues in the Donbas region south of Pokrovsk. Though making minor gains, they are losing a lot of men and equipment in the process.

Push back growing over the use of NK soldiers in the Ukraine war. The US/Nato seem to be saying if Russia uses NK soldiers to attack Ukraine forces, then the restrictions on long range munitions may be pulled away.

The Russian need for troops in the fight is getting increasingly desperate. As noted a few months back, Russia has had to mobilize around 30,000 per month just to maintain the balance with forces lost, at that time in the 30,000 per month range as well. However, in the last month with increased offensive activity, those losses are now reaching nearly 40,000 per month.

Mixed reporting on the quality of the NK forces. Initial were that they were Kim’s special forces equivalent, while more recent cite the soldiers being ‘half starved’ and poorly trained. I suspect both reports are true. The special forces will provide the cadre of leadership over the regular forces. The ‘starvation’ observation is relatively accurate because for the past several years or more, the NK soldiers instead of training spent their time in the fields trying to grow enough food so as not to starve.

Moldova/Transnistria -

The presidential election will move into a second round on November 3, but it is not yet clear if the Moldovan Constitutional Court will finalize the results of the October 20 referendum amid allegations of serious irregularities. The Moldovan CEC validated the results of the referendum and submitted its report on the referendum to the Moldovan Constitutional Court, which has 10 days (i.e. until November 4) to either confirm or reject the referendum results. Moldovan authorities continue to discuss electoral violations during the October 20 voting, and it is unclear if the Constitutional Court will nullify the results of the referendum due to these reported violations.

OBSERVATION - Russia is making a big push in these nations where they by force have taken over portions thereof, with the ultimate goal of regaining full control politically. Belarus is a prime example, Ukraine devolved into war when the population rejected a similar Russian financed power play. Georgia is in the midst of potential civil war as well due to Russian interference and money.

Europe / NATO General –

GEORGIA - Georgian opposition demands new elections under international oversight at a large rally in Tbilisi.

President Salome Zurabishvili addressed the crowd: “You did not lose the election. Your voice was stolen, and they tried to steal your future. No one has the right to do that.”

Thousands have already joined the protests.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Initial reports of a framework for a cease fire in Lebanon

- Israeli armor forces now pushing deeper into S Lebanon.

- Israel has outlawed the UNRWA and is expelling them from Israel, Gaza and the West Bank

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Post Strike Review for Operation “Days of Repentance”
Two of Iran’s “Ghadir” Over-the-Horizon Radar Sites, in the west of the country on the border with Iraq, were destroyed in Friday night’s Israeli attack. The second Ghadir radar ~15km north of Ahvaz appears to have been hit based upon analysis of recent commercial satellite imagery

***
Israel Parliament overwhelming voted in favor of the law declaring UNRWA an illegal entity in Israel.
All UNRWA activities and presence in Israel will cease immediately

Commissioner-General of UNRWA: The vote by the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) against UNRWA this evening is unprecedented and sets a dangerous precedent. It opposes the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law

OBSERVATION - Extensive documentation has been provided to the UN concerning active participation by UNRWA personnel in the atrocities of Oct 7 - and the UN has done nothing. One identified member of the UNRWA was recently taken out by the IDF, the UN’s response was to morn the loss of a demonstrated terrorist.

***
Last night the cabinet discussed for many hours the Israeli response following the sending of the drone to Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea. The ministers were explicitly told that the Israeli attack on Iran did not include the reaction to the sending of the drone and that another reaction is expected!
Last night, the ministers and the security establishment formulated a number of courses of action.

Security sources report that the IDF is preparing to launch a new, large-scale attack on Iran within the coming week. According to these sources, the operation’s targets will be identified swiftly, focusing on strategic points, and this time the strikes are expected to be far more destructive than previous ones. Military experts suggest that the escalation reflects heightened tensions in the region, signaling a shift in Israel’s strategy toward more decisive and impactful actions against Iranian interests. - I24

***
Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Dannon:

“To Iran’s leaders, take this as a warning. Israel has shown restraint. But from now on, you will only see strength. Any further aggression will be met with consequences that are swift and decisive. And to the members of this council, we call on you to act.

Enough empty words, enough statements of concern. The Iranian regime must face real consequences for its actions. We demand immediate and crippling sanctions targeting Iran’s military and economic infrastructure. Designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization it is, isolate Iran diplomatically, but most importantly, take the necessary measures to prevent a lunatic regime from attaining nuclear capabilities. Imagine who will sit here in in a few years if, God forbid, they will have nuclear capabilities.

The world cannot afford to ignore the threat Iran poses. This is no longer a matter of words. It is a matter of action.”

***
Iran’s envoy to the UN: “The US bears responsibility for the Israeli attack and will bear the consequences”

Reuters: The U.S. issued a warning to Iran at the United Nations today, stating that any further aggressive actions against Israel or U.S. personnel in the region will result in severe consequences.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israel continues to encircle and destroy elements of Hamas et al in N Gaza

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli tanks reach the outskirts of the town of Khiam, south Lebanon

Tyre faced heavy Israeli bombardment yesterday, reportedly hitting ammo dumps and other Hezbollah facilities.

Approximately two-thirds of Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rocket arsenal has been destroyed. Based on pre-war intelligence, Hezbollah now has up to 25,000 short-range rockets (up to 80 km) and around 2,000 medium-range missiles (80-200 km). From October 1-28, an average of 100-200 rockets were fired daily at Israel. Hezbollah’s ability to prolong these attacks depends on its rate of fire—fewer daily launches could extend its operational endurance.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1850902410169831864

NOTE - I would add the ability to prolong also depends on IAF success in taking out ammo dumps containing these rockets as well as the ongoing strikes on launching facilities.

***
Israel is in advanced negotiations for an agreement to end the war in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, Yediot Aharonot reported, quoting senior officials.

The report also said that an agreement is expected to include the understanding that the IDF will re-establish itself in the border area, exit some of the areas in southern Lebanon where its operations have been completed, and potentially leave forces within Lebanon for a period of time.

The officials stressed that a ceasefire in Lebanon will take place only after the final agreement has been signed, and not a moment earlier. It is estimated that Iran has signaled to Hezbollah that it should agree to the process.

It is also estimated that immediately after the fighting in Lebanon ends, there will be a two-month period in which the Lebanese military repositions itself throughout southern Lebanon, and the efficacy of an international body to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 will be examined. The Lebanese army will be responsible for preventing Hezbollah from entering the area south of the Litani River.

Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, stipulates that Hezbollah must not be allowed to operate in southern Lebanon and the entire area of southern Lebanon must be free of any armed personnel and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon.

The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which acts as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel and operates near the border, works to implement Resolution 1701, though its peacekeepers often come under attack from Hezbollah.

Due to UNIFIL’s failure to implement and enforce Resolution 1701, Hezbollah was able to plan - and nearly carry out - its “Conquer the Galilee” attack, in which Hezbollah terrorists would infiltrate the Galilee region of northern Israel in an October 7-style attack. These plans were foiled by the IDF’s ground invasion of Lebanon.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398263

OBSERVATION - UN Resolution 1701 was a complete failure, so why is Israel moving towards a similar agreement that the world knows Hezbollah / Iran will violate? The “peace keepers” willingly turned their heads and in some instances willingly cooperated with Hezbollah force build up.

***
Hezbollah’s Shura Council has elected Sheikh Naim Qassem, the group’s deputy, to succeed slain secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli air raids on the Homs countryside in the border area between Syria and Lebanon, likely targeting Iranian elements attempting to smuggle arms and supplies into Lebanon.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The U.K. Office of Maritime Trade Operations is reporting an attempted Attack on a Commercial Shipping Vessel in the Southern Red Sea, 25NM off the Coast of Al-Mukha in Western Yemen. With the Master of the Vessel stating that Two Explosions were observed near the Vessel, but that the Ship and Crew are Safe. This is the First Attack on a Ship by the Houthis since October 10th, as well as the B-2 Bomber Strikes by the U.S. Air Force on October 16th.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

OooooooK, it is beginning to look like both Iran and Israel are fast tracking attacks on each other. As noted yesterday, there are growing rumors of an Iranian strike as early as this weekend (Saturday). This would fall within their declaration of an “immediate’ response. Rhetoric continues to rattle the saber on their part.

Israel yesterday stated that last weekend’s strike did not include retaliation for the attempted assassination of Netanyahu via a drone strike on his home. And planning for that retaliation is ongoing.

Now, if both hold to their words, the cycle of strike/reprisal strike may be shortening. For Iran’s part, to attempt another missile strike would be an open invitation for Israel to demolish its oil industry as well as potentially cripple its nuclear weapons development program. The nuke program in particular may well have very weak components susceptible to destruction like the missile production program had. Secondly, Iran is essentially naked and blind to future attacks like that of last weekend. Any Israeli attack would have its way with Iran.

For Israel’s part, I suspect Netanyahu can restrain his inner honey badger long enough to wait until after the election, and I would think the week’s wait would be well spent by the military to properly plan like they did the last strike.

In Gaza, international screams of concern over the banning of the UNRWA have begun. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the UNRWA has openly supported Hamas in all aspects of this and previous fights. Israel is correct in defining them as a terrorist element.

In N Gaza, time is running out for Hamas et al. Once this round of clearing is finished, I expect more to the south. With all the fighting in the north, there isn’t much left of the cities, only rubble.

In Lebanon, Israel is now more aggressively pushing past the border ‘defenses’ and into the interior. Waiting to hear if Hezbollah is still avoiding decisive actions or are continuing to fall back. Regardless of talks about a cease fire, IDF is more aggressively pushing to the Litiani River.

Iran –

Reports that Khamenei has approved an Iranian response in Israel.

Iran plans to triple its military budget, proposing a more than 200 percent increase, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani announced Tuesday. The decision follows recent escalations with Israel after a series of retaliatory missile strikes.

OBSERVATION - Iran’s economy is in the dumps and the Joe Mohamed is tired of the conditions. This is due largely to Iran diverting so much money into its proxy organizations to attack Israel and growing its military. An increase in the military will take away from projects needed for the people of Iran, such as critical infrastructure, relief of inflation, etc. This in turn will increase pressures for more protests and riots in some parts of the country.

Countdown going big - T-6 days out from election day.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The rise of automated license plate readers (ALPRs) across the United States has triggered a growing wave of lawsuits, public outcry, and legislative debates, as concerns mount over their implications for privacy and civil liberties. These systems, like the one recently challenged in Norfolk, Virginia, by the Institute for Justice, are increasingly seen as a form of government surveillance that crosses constitutional boundaries, raising alarm among citizens and advocacy groups alike.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7474#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Surveillance state on AI folks. Add to it its brother - facial recognition - and you have an incredible set up for tracking and surveilling individuals. There was a reality TV show a while back where an individual(s) are supposed to ‘escape’ and remain uncaught for something like 48 hours. Law enforcement and other surveillance gurus utilized the capabilities of law enforcement to track them down - ATM use, accessible cameras, etc. More times than not, the people were caught.

CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***

Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo (R) announced Monday evening that he is activating the National Guard as a precautionary measure on Election Day.

Lombardo, the former Sheriff of Clark County, the most populous county in Nevada, said the move is purely meant as a means to be prepared for any possible issues.

“As a first responder, I know first-hand the importance of being prepared, and this decision reflects my commitment to safety and preparedness on Election Day,” he said in a press release.

The announcement points to a need for “preparation for a safe and smooth Election Day” with the Guard members’ roles “limited to supporting state and local resources.”Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo (R) announced Monday evening that he is activating the National Guard as a precautionary measure on Election Day.

Lombardo, the former Sheriff of Clark County, the most populous county in Nevada, said the move is purely meant as a means to be prepared for any possible issues.

“As a first responder, I know first-hand the importance of being prepared, and this decision reflects my commitment to safety and preparedness on Election Day,” he said in a press release.
The announcement points to a need for “preparation for a safe and smooth Election Day” with the Guard members’ roles “limited to supporting state and local resources.”

https://redstate.com/rusty-weiss/2024/10/29/national-guard-activated-to-ensure-safe-and-smooth-election-day-swing-state-governor-announces-n2181238#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Clearly the threat of violence and other “disruptions” are on the minds of state leaders to varying degrees for election day and the following.

***
The FBI and DHS are trying to label conservatives as a threat.

In an internal bulletin, the agencies claims they “have identified domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and animosity toward perceived political opponents, as the most likely threat of violence in the coming election.”

These agencies are trying to label YOU as domestic terrorists if you challenge the election results.

It’s worth noting, DHS released THOUSANDS of known foreign terrorists into our country and one even tried committing an attack on Election Day.

But TRUMP SUPPORTERS are the ones on their radar.

https://x.com/BreannaMorello/status/1851220507305107628

OBSERVATION - Rhetoric from the left continues to increase as the regime puts out more and more that the threat is from the right.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a 2-1/2-year high in September amid a surge in imports, prompting some economists to trim their economic growth estimates for the third quarter.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-trade-deficit/2024/10/29/id/1185834/

OBSERVATION - Economists are trying to pin the exact reason, some saying because of our ‘strong’ economy. They are also forecasting a growth in the GDP as well.

***
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a plan Tuesday to get more people to open bank accounts if they don’t have one.
With a week left until the election, Yellen is following up with a request from Congress last year to craft a national strategy for financial inclusion, per the Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Act. Her plan involves banks and employers cooperating to encourage people to open bank accounts when they get a new job, tax refund, or a government payment.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/finance-and-economy/3206932/yellen-plan-financial-inclusion-week-before-election/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Sorry, this has red flags all over it. Getting people out of cash and dependent on banks - especially the big ones - that then can be seized by a tyrannical govt by many potential means.

***
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate from July through September, with consumers helping drive growth despite the weight of still-high interest rates.

The report is the first of three estimates the government will make of GDP growth for the third quarter of the year. The U.S. economy has continued to expand in the face of the much higher borrowing rates the Federal Reserve imposed in 2022 and 2023 in its drive to curb inflation. Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, it has kept growing, with employers still hiring and consumers still spending.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/economy-gdp-consumer/2024/10/30/id/1185968/

OBSERVATION - Hard to support their claim on the economy and consumer spending. Other reports have consumer ‘spending’ on the backs on increased credit card debt. I suspect that the number will be rounded down - after the election.

***
U.S. job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August. Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.

The number of layoffs also rose. And the number of Americans who quit their jobs fell below 3.1 million, the fewest since August 2020.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/job-openings-economy/2024/10/29/id/1185845/
e

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A dozen military helicopters landed at the Capitol overnight as part of a continuity of government training. The purpose was to train/test how many could be evacuated in a short amount to time to bunkers in the event of a major attack against the US.

***
After spending nearly $2 billion on air defense systems in the Middle East alone, the U.S. is reportedly running low on its stockpiles for the weaponry, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.
Ukraine and Israel — along with a host of other U.S. allies — have been in urgent need of American weapons systems amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s war with Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Middle East. But the U.S. is reportedly struggling to keep up with demand and is starting to run out of air defense missile variants, a problem that could become even worse should those conflicts escalate or drag on, officials told the WSJ.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/29/us-air-defense-missiles-running-low-reportedly/

OBSERVATION - Just like biden drained our strategic oil reserves, he has methodically drawn down our ammo reserves while our industrial capacity remains restrained.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

BE ALERT - There are reports from all over regarding ‘ilregularities’ in the early vote and absentee ballot processing. Pennsylvania reports of shutting down early voting, other states ballot irregularities and others bulk ballots being brought in. Many of these are being identified early and courts engaged IMHO because the republicans have taken to trump’s call to vote early. Many of these cheats from the past are being stopped, but I expect more as the day approaches.

***
The U.S. Supreme Court now has been asked to decide whether noncitizens should be on the voter rolls in the state of Virginia. It’s illegal, of course, for them to vote. But a lower court judge ruled just days ago the state must restore 1,600 names of people who self-identify as noncitizens to voter rolls.

***
Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is waving the white flag in North Carolina, surrendering the state to former President Donald Trump as her campaign withdraws nearly $2 million in planned ad buys from television stations statewide one week before the election.

OBSERVATION - This has shocked some political pundits - pulling out of a battle ground state. Similar rumblings coming out of Wisconsin as well. The concept of not putting out good money for bad is in play and these actions suggest their internal polling is not swinging their way. Also note, harris has pulled in more than twice the ‘contributions’ trump has, so to make such a drastic decision becomes even more evident of troubles.

***
On Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris gave her “closing argument” speech at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, with the White House in the background. Although President Joe Biden was watching the speech, he alerted reporters earlier in the day that he would not be there in person and would not preview any of the speech. The speech that Harris gave was very much more of the same of what we’ve heard before, including with how she went after former and potentially future President Donald Trump.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2024/10/29/kamala-harris-speech-n2646954#google_vignette

RELATED - D.C. officials set up fences to try to keep out pro-Gaza protesters from Kamala’s last big-stage speech. There were chaotic scenes after the speech as her supporters had to climb over fences to leave, and were confronted by screaming Muslims and leftists.

Biden / Harris Watch –

President Joe Biden’s supposed attempt to call out racist remarks by a speaker at a campaign rally for Donald Trump backfired as Trump and other Republicans accused him of calling their supporters “garbage.”
“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s

His statements spawned a rapid effort to redefine and edit his comments but it only has made matters worse.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/garbage-hate-democrats/2024/10/30/id/1185945/

OBSERVATION - Can see why harris has kept him on the sidelines. Linkages are quickly being made
- Hillary called us “deplorable”
- Harris calls us ‘nazis’
- biden calls us garbage.

Illegal Immigration –

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has warned that rural hospitals are closing down as they buckle under the exploding cost of caring for illegal migrants who cannot afford medical bills.

Vance recently spoke about the pressures hospitals are facing, and he was asked about the closure of several hospitals and clinics in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Vance said that rural hospitals are shutting down because they are “bearing the burden of providing health care to millions of people who shouldn’t be in this country to begin with.”

“Now you might not think that rural health care access is an immigration issue,” he said. “I guarantee it is an immigration issue because we’re bankrupting, bankrupting a lot of hospitals by forcing these hospitals to provide care for people who don’t have the legal right to be in our country,” the Ohio senator added.

https://wokespy.com/jd-vance-sounds-alarm-as-hospitals-close-down-due-to-cost-of-caring-for-illegal-migrants/

OBSERVATION - Instances like these are growing as the regime floods small, predominately red communities with illegals.

North/South Korea –

South Korea aims to send a team to Ukraine to monitor and analyse the deployment of North Korean troops by Russia, a presidential official said on Wednesday

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin says Russia is conducting a drill to use nuclear weapons today. Command and control, also ballistic and cruise missile practice will be held

Putin issued a dramatic message to the media and said that Russia had begun conducting exercises for the use of nuclear weapons.

“Use of nuclear weapons is a last resort, but military forces must be prepared for any scenario.”

Russian Defense Minister Belousov reports that during the training of strategic nuclear forces, a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike had been worked out. Russia launched Yars ICBM from Plesetsk, Bulava and Sineva SLBMs from nuclear submarines and cruise missile from Tu-95MS bombers

OBSERVATION - This is part of the ongoing big stick threats of putin that have so far cowed much of Nato. However, the scenario and the exercise in general are serious escalations in putin’s rhetoric and russian action.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

South Korean Presidential office says at least 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia, some 3,000 sent to western Russia

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

North Korean advance unit possibly deployed to front lines in Russia: South Korean military

Western Intelligence Officials told CNN today that North Korean Troops are believe to now be Fighting on the Frontline in Eastern Ukraine; with the Pentagon confirming during a Press Conference earlier that a Small Contingent of North Korean Soldiers have arrived in the Kursk Region of Western Russia, but it is not known yet if they are in Ukraine. During the Conference it was further stated, that at least 10,000 additional North Korean Troops have arrived or are heading to Western Russia.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1851444386204156266?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 62 Shahed-type and unidentified-type strike drones, launched by Russia overnight. 9 people wounded as result of Shahed-type strike drones attack in Solomiansky district of Kyiv

Big fire reported in Zheleznogorsk of Kursk region after Ukrainian drone strikes

Ukraine is planning to draft another 160,000 troops into its military as Russia gains ground in the east.

It also comes amid reports that a number of North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia.
Ukraine’s military has been under severe pressure of late, in part due to Russia’s greater manpower and deeper resources.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2n4n1r307o

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

In spite of increased diversions of resources, Russia has not been able to budge Ukraine forces from the Kursk salient.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.

Kharkiv Front -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kruhlyakivka village of Kharkiv region of Ukraine

Outlook —

Russia nuclear threats and deployment of NK soldiers have heated up the international aspect of the war. Growing pressure on the west to loosen conditions for deep strikes should NIK forces engage Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

GEORGIA - (ISW). Russian officials and milbloggers are conducting information operations that falsely portray the Georgian opposition’s peaceful and legal challenges to the conduct of the October 26 parliamentary election results as a Western- and Ukrainian-sponsored illegal coup d’état.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Movement in hostage release and possible ceasefire in Lebanon.

- IDF announces initial drawdown of activated forces as ground objectives are nearly achieved.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated a possible breakthrough in negotiations with Hamas for the release of 101 hostages still held in Gaza. Speaking with Likud members in a closed meeting at the Knesset on Monday, Netanyahu suggested that Hamas might be willing to drop some of its demands for a ceasefire deal.

***
Pentagon official Arian Tabatbai, who was under suspicion of leaking U.S. intelligence on Israel’s plans regarding Iran, has now been reassigned to a role with restricted access to sensitive information.

***
According to Israeli Media Sources, several reserve brigades of the Israel Defense Force will soon be released from active service, as the current ground operation in Southern Lebanon has entered its final stages; with most Hezbollah sites and bunkers within a mile of the northern border with Israel having been destroyed.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israel continues to encircle and destroy elements of Hamas et al in N Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shocked Hamas operatives in northern Gaza by surrounding them, then winning a close-fought battle in which the Iran-backed terrorists used a hospital as a base, in violation of international law.

The Jerusalem Post reported Tuesday on the “complete surprise” that came when Israel decided to surround Hamas in the stronghold of Jabaliya and evacuate all local civilians, rather than relying on pinpoint strikes, as in the past:
According to the IDF, the remaining terrorists in the northern Gaza Strip had gathered in Jabalya, prompting the military to encircle the area, evacuate the civilian population, isolate the terrorists, and prevent them from escaping.

Three brigades surrounded the camp: the 460th, Givati, and the 401st. The 460th Brigade, which reached schools and shelters, reported that this approach allowed them to evacuate five thousand residents. By the following day, twenty thousand more had left, and forces said that the residents’ “fear barrier was broken.”

Approximately 600 terrorists surrendered, while hundreds of others were eliminated in the refugee camp.

The Post added that Hamas had used the local Kamal Adwan Hospital as a base.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/10/29/israel-defeats-hamas-in-northern-gaza-terrorists-used-hospital-as-base/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli tanks reach the outskirts of the town of Khiam, south Lebanon.

Israeli Armor and Mechanized-Infantry made a significant advances this morning towards the City of Khiam in Southern Lebanon, roughly 3 miles from the Israeli Border; with some of the heaviest fighting of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon so far, having been reported within the outskirts of the city.

Khiam is considered a major stronghold of Hezbollah in the Nabatieh Governorate, and the site of a large battle during the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

Al-Khiam, a massive Hezbollah stronghold is about to fall according to the Saudi Al-Hadath network.

When Israel completes the capture and demilitarization of the 3 large villages of Al Khiam, Tayibe and Bint Jbeil, the threat of asymmetrical terror invasion and RPG attacks across the border will have been solved. The IDF will, at that point, control the border road on the Lebanese side, to which, due to terrain and a sparse road network, there are minimal easily controlled approaches.

***
Reports of Naim Kassem will give his first speech today as the Secretary General of Hezbollah

***
Hezbollah has conducted at least 26 attacks into Israel on October 28. Hezbollah fired 50 rockets targeting Maalot Tarshiha, killing one civilian. Hezbollah launched one-way attack drones targeting at least seven Israeli military and civilian sites in northern Israel.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli warplanes are now targeting Tal al-Jabiyah, west of Daraa, with airstrikes. The area is under the control of Iran and its proxies

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Secretary-General of the Arab Islamic Council:
“I swear to you that the Israeli army will attack Iran’s nuclear sites. The decision has already been made. Iran must bear responsibility for this. Listen to me, Khamenei, and remember it well.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Starting with Gaza, Hamas elements in N Gaza continue to crumble. Hamas continues to do stupid things like thinking that taking over hospitals will some how protect them, and finding out otherwise.

In S Lebanon, the ground objectives are becoming clearer. To return citizens back to their homes in N Israel, the IDF is clearing a buffer zone in S Lebanon to prevent direct attacks.

The assaults on Al Khiam, Tayibe and Bint Jbeil by the IDF are probably the last big objectives of the current conflict. Seizure will prevent Hezbollah from strongholds they could use to push into the buffer Israel is trying to create.

I don’t expect a ceasefire until these three towns are cleared of Hezbollah. A read of the developing agreement has a more aggressive role of the Lebanese army disarming and moving Hezbollah north of the Litani River. It also grants Israel unrestricted ability to strike Hezbollah to prevent movement into the region as well as continuing to prevent it from rearming. Until then, Israel will maintain the pressure in the south while hammering key ammo storage and operational facilities in the north.

The situation with Iran continues to simmer. I don’t have a good feel just how serious Iran is on an ‘immediate’ response. They have to realize that they are in a worse defensive position than before Israel whacked their rear ends and took out the ADA assets they relied on.

Israel as well. The retaliatory threat due to the drone attack on Netanyahu’s home may well be there to keep Iran on its heels about a potential Israeli strike sooner than later. Perhaps could even envelope a preemptive strike should Iran attempt to carry out its current threats. Israel is gaining more flexibility as IAF is not having to devote so much to the support of the ground war.

In any case, just what will Israel’s priority be for the next strike? Netanyahu repeatedly has stated the nuclear program was his top priority. Striking the oil would severely cripple Iran, but potentially cause greater global push back. The Iran nuclear threat is the biggest terror threat Israel is facing in the future. And if delayed until after the election, Netanyahu will have a freer hand to deal this blow.

Anyway, no solid indicators of a soon attack by either.

Iran –

Iranian Defense Minister claims Tehran is capable of carrying out “dozens of operations” against Israel, adds that “our air defenses are strong”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tuesday, “Responding to Israel’s attack is our right, but the Islamic Republic will decide on this response itself, and we won’t allow anyone to drag us into emotional reactions.” He also noted that Tehran knows which countries allowed Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, but the US is the main culprit.

Countdown going big - T-5 days out from election day.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) has launched an initiative to investigate the role major internet domain companies have taken in the spread of so-called disinformation, primarily from Russia.

Warner’s focus includes prominent players in the digital space such as Cloudflare, GoDaddy, NameCheap, NameSilo, Newfold and Verisign. However, critics argue that Warner is just laying the groundwork for a government system that could inevitably be used to suppress online dissent.

The senator’s strategy is notable not for its tactics but for its ambition. By shifting his focus to the core of internet infrastructure – domain registrars – he is bypassing social media and diving into the foundational aspects of the web.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-10-30-warner-lays-groundwork-online-censorship-domain-registrars.html

OBSERVATION - Censorship is the goal of the globalist cabal- its been the regular drum beat for over many years now, only to be crescendoing this past few years. They continue to seek out ways around resistance as the effort by WEF syncopate Warner is attempting. BTW, even though Russia has been playing around in the cyber world to mess with the election - Russian “disinformation” has also been a code word branding any and all information that is contrary to the regime’s narrative.

CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***

***
Jamie Raskin (D): Let people vote for Trump if they want, we’re not gonna certify the election anyways, so he may be elected but we are not going to let him be inaugurated.

OBSERVATION - Declaration of insurrection even before the election. Growing evidence that the controlling far left faction of the DNC is preparing to potentially initiate civil war in the event of a trump win

***
U.S. Department of Energy that has begun tracking employees’ beliefs through a plan to monitor employment accommodations.
The DOE has claimed its accumulation of information about employees’ beliefs is needed to “collect, maintain, and disseminate records on employees and applicants for employment who seek and receive medical and non-medical accommodations.”

Also caught up in the information dragnet is information about workers with varying disabilities, and their accommodations.
But it also insists on keeping records regarding, “Federal employees or applicants for employment requesting accommodation based on a ‘sincerely held’ religious belief, practice, or observance under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. This system includes requests for a medical or religious accommodation.”

The report said Lankford has concerns that “collecting detailed records on an individual’s sincerely held religious beliefs and practices — alongside other personal and sensitive information — poses a significant threat to the privacy and religious freedoms of federal employees.”

https://www.wnd.com/2024/10/significant-threat-federal-government-launches-plan-to-track-faith-data/

OBSERVATION - This can also be lumped under globalism/great reset. Remember, this is the same govt that classified pro-life groups as ‘domestic terrorists’. If the govt expands this to apply it across the board, the potential for discrimination based on religion will skyrocket - in one way by providing targets for the LGBT et al community to strike at.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

CDC has reportedly added 3 wuhan jabs to child vaccination schemes from 0 - 6. All with no supporting testing or other proofs.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Fighting in the legal trenches and the polling booth-
The Supreme Court allowed Virginia on Wednesday to remove individuals identified as noncitizens from the voter rolls.
The justices paused a lower court order preventing officials from removing around 1,600 individuals who the state said “self-identified” as noncitizens.

Rasmussen - Michigan: One voter ID with 29 separate “votes”

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson says there is a “NATIONWIDE ISSUE with Dominion Voter Access Terminals,” preventing voters from making certain selections. These ‘selections’ appear to be related to down ballot republican selections.

According to her office, this “programming issue” CANNOT be fixed, and voters are being forced to deal with it.

Colorado House Republicans are calling for Secretary of State Jena Griswold to resign following a serious breach of election security protocols. Her office’s recent posting of critical election system passwords online (for a month) has raised significant concerns about the accountability of our voting system.

A Judge has ruled PA Gov Josh Shapiro was breaking Election Law by using uniformed officers to block early voting lines. Judge ruled two additional days of early voting to remediate the violation.

OBSERVATIONS - I think I’ve noted this earlier. The combination of the emphasis by trump to vote early and more aggressive monitoring of the democrat cheat plan is resulting in a lot of these cheats being caught and now by law being reversed before election day. It doesn’t mean that the democrats/leftists won’t put on a full court press here in a few days, but it does establish the cheating and has forced the judiciary to step in rather than play the games they did last election.

Biden / Harris Watch –

House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik and Oversight Chairman James Comer are raising concerns the Biden-Harris White House may have violated the Presidential Records Act by revising President Biden’s remarks, in which he referred to President Trump’s supporters as “garbage.”

PS - if you have’t listened to trump’s discussion about getting into the garbage truck and wearing the vest at the rally - you really need to. Classic golden trump.

***
Where has the ‘joy’ gone? Chaos broke loose at Kamala Harris event in Harrisburg, PA as dozens of protestors yell out slogans like “Kamala supports genocide”, “blood on your hands”, and “f* you.” This follows friction from pro-hamas / pro-palestine protestors that were kept out of harris’ DC rally and who later harassed harrisites as they left the rally.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, which flew for 86 minutes - the longest flight recorded yet - before falling into waters off its east, South Korea and Japan said.

The ICBM was fired at a sharply-raised angle and reached as high as 7,000km (4,350 miles). This means that it would have covered a further distance if it were launched horizontally.

Pyongyang last fired an ICBM in December 2023, in defiance of long-standing and crippling UN sanctions. That test of the Solid-Fuel “Hwaseong-18” ICBM travelled for 73 minutes and covered about 1,000km.

North Korea experts believe the launch was aimed at increasing its missiles’ payload.

The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol has called for a “Strong Response” to last night’a launch, with him directing the National Security Council to prepare for further surprise provocations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgry8rpzn4o

OBSERVATION - Observers are suggesting that this may be a New Variant of ICBM. Clearly a substantial increase in performance by a factor close to 7X. One can only begin to link the jump in ICBM capabilities to the growing partnership with Russia.

The distance between NK and the US is 6,386 miles / 10,277 km. Los Angeles, which is about 9,500 kilometers away. So as noted above, the strategic range of this missile is more than the 7,000km (4,350 miles) from the test. Clearly places a large section of the US within range.

Japan –

See NK missile test above.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched a missile and drone attack
Shot down:
0/4 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
2/8 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
40/43 Shahed drones
Another 3 Shahed drones returned to Russian airspace.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yasna Poliana town in Donetsk region of Ukraine

***
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that North Korean troops wearing Russian uniforms and carrying Russian equipment are moving toward Ukraine, in what he called a dangerous and destabilizing development.

The US and South Korea say some of the North Korean troops are heading to Russia’s Kursk region on the border with Ukraine, where the Kremlin’s forces have struggled to push back a Ukrainian incursion.

Some North Korean advance units have already arrived in the Kursk region, and Austin said “the likelihood is pretty high” that Russia will use the troops in combat.

The US has estimated there are about 10,000 North Korean troops now in Russia. Seoul and its allies assess that the number dispatched to Russia has increased to 11,000, according to a senior South Korean presidential official, who spoke on condition of anonymity during a background briefing.

More than 3,000 of them are believed to have moved toward combat zones in western Russia, the South Korean official said, without specifying the locations.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3284535/north-korean-troops-russian-uniforms-are-heading-toward-ukraine-us-says?utm_source=rss_feed

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.

Zaporizhzhia Axis -

Russia is preparing an armored assault on Zaporizhzhia, says Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn. After conducting drills on occupied territory, Russian forces plan to deploy this equipment near two settlements in the region.

Outlook —

The deployment of the NK soldiers continues to be on the front burner. They apparently will be wearing Russian uniforms, though I suspect they will have some sort of NK patch for identification.

Rumors of a Zaporizhzhia front Russia offensive have bubbled to the surface again. While the thought may be that Ukraine has diverted forces from this region for the fight in the Donbas, granting limited troop superiority for Russia, initiation of an offensive as the mud season arrives would just bog down the operation very quickly.

Mud season is also driving the Russian effort to gain as much territory in the Donbas as possible. Depending upon the success of the NK manning the fight in Kursk freeing up units to go back south to the Donbas, Russia is running out of time. As I estimated, over the past few months Russian casualties have risen by about 25% or more - to the 40K range - and so far Russia has only been able to maintain about 30K in replacements per month.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Apparent movement towards a ceasefire in Lebanon

- Alerts that Iran may launch an attack before the US election, perhaps as early as Saturday, continue to grow.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Senior Hamas officials says they reject the idea of a temporary ceasefire with Israel but supports any proposal that leads to a permanent cessation of the war

***
CNN report: Iran decided to respond to Israel’s attack on Saturday. According to them, this will be a decisive and painful response and might even happen before the US presidential elections

Reports a Senior Iranian Official has told the U.S media that Iran will respond to the attack before the U.S elections and that it will be “Definitive and Painful”

CNN reports according to a high-ranking Iranian official that Iran will launch a massive attack on Israel within days.

Israeli sources said if Iran does so, Israel will respond by destroying Iran’s nuclear sites and oil infrastructure

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas et al continues to be reduced in N Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army is making advances from the eastern outskirts of Khiam. This is a key piece of terrain that Hezbollah has historically used to direct artillery / rockets onto N Israel.

20 rockets were fired by Hezbollah towards Karmiel and its surroundings in the Galilee

Israeli Broadcasting Authority: The army will withdraw from Lebanon within a week and will resume its operations if the agreement is violated

****
Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon’s MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night.

The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to events in Gaza.

MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden’s envoy to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change in Netanyahu’s position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/2024-10-31/live-updates-826925

***
Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati states that the conditions of an Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire are clear, and that they are ready to deploy the Lebanese Army in force across southern Lebanon, in order to ensure the implementation and adherence of non-state actors (ie Hezbollah and other islamic terror groups) with UNSC Resolution 1701.

***
After the IDF issued another warning to the residents of Baalbek and the surrounding area to evacuate, a new wave of attacks hammered the area. Included in this was striking a petroleum storage area used by Hezbollah.

***
More massive airstrikes in Tyre.

***
Naim Qassem, the new Hezbollah leader, has fled to Iran for fear of his life. In this new photo he is on a flight to the city of Mashhad in northeast Iran.
His first speech to his followers was interrupted by ‘technical difficulties’ claimed to be from a cyber attack by Israel.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli air strikes target Al-Qaa-Jousieh crossing between Syria and Lebanon

A massive Israeli strike in area of Qusseir, south of Homs, in area of the border crossing. Reports a bridge was also bombed

The IDF took a relatively unusual responsibility for the attack in Syria: “We attacked military warehouses and headquarters of the Radwan force and Hezbollah in the Al Qusayr area in Syria.”

This is an area that is very close to the border with Lebanon and it is about military equipment that is apparently destined to be smuggled into Lebanese territory.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces (IDF, Border Police, and Shin Bet) carried out a counterterrorism operation in Nour Shams, West Bank, which included an airstrike targeting armed terrorists.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Over the last 24 Hours, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed to have launched at least five drone attacks against Northern and Southern Israel.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1851852423805223343?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The extent of the concessions by Hezbollah to the Israeli demands for the implementation of a cease fire indicate the depth to which Israel has decimated the organization. Israel is willing that the Lebanese army do its job under UN 1701 and disarm Hezbollah while maintaining its full readiness to strike Hezbollah if they try to cheat the deal. The defeat of Hezbollah has provided some back bone to the Lebanese to stand up against them and take control of the country back.

The decoupling of Hezbollah from Hamas is very significant and support of Hamas was the justification for the attacks against Israel. But the decoupling really wasn’t too hard for them to recognize. First, they are members of opposing religious sects of islam - the famous Sunni vs Shia split. The second was Hamas’ premature launch on Oct 7 in an effort to steal glory from Hezbollah. Lots of bad blood between the two.

Israel’s drive to three key cities in S Lebanon, Karmiel being one of the key ones, will likely be the final major actions prior to any ceasefire.

Gaza continues to go with sporadic fierce fights as Israel locates and hit remnant Hamas and allied terror cells. Hamas seems to be moving closer to Israeli demands for a cease fire.

Finally, I’m reassessing my view of the potential for an Iranian attack before the US election. More divergent sources alerting to an attack, including Iran itself. Shaking my head, it is growing that Iran is actually serous about launching another attack. They are deep into the FO that the FA this next time will be brutal.

Countered against this is the Israeli retaliatory attack for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home AND potential preemptive strike on Iran. A preemptive strike in some ways would be a better outcome if before the election as it would like focus on missile launch sites and facilities whereas the retaliatory one would hit the nuke and oil targets.

Politically, for the US, a major Iranian attack is likely to hurt harris more than trump, given the resurgence the anti-israel wing of the progressive democrat party.

We may see how serious Iran is in the next few days. Otherwise the ball is in Israel’s court

Iran –

Germany has ordered the closure of all three Iranian consulates following Iran’s execution of Jamshid Sharmahd, a 69-year-old German-Iranian dissident abducted by Iranian agents in Dubai four years ago.

Syria -

CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes against several ISIS camps in Syria

A missile attack targeted the American base in the Al-Omar oil field in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria

Misc of Note –

I’m posting this here so as not to clutter the CW2 and political sections above. There has been a notable growth from democrats/progressives over their threats and plans to use violence as a tool to prevent Trump from being sworn in. Tactics range from arrest (for the bogus convictions), to flat out rioting and destruction.

Your ‘rank and file’ democrat has a low probability of violence, though recent surveys indicate that they would condone it against trump and republicans.
The actual foot soldiers would likely be Antifa and affiliated. They would form the core and then the other strap hangers - BLM and anti-israel - groups would join. However, these groups have been relatively quiet in the run up to the election. But a trump win may just be the unifying action to restart them.

The wild card will be just what will the 12 million of so illegals brought into the US by biden/harris do if rioting kicks off? I will go on a limb and say that there are some specific groups that will act - primarily moslems, Chinese and ‘gangs’.

As with the Floyd riots of 2020, major urban centers will be ground zero for the initial riots which will spread to some of the suburban areas. What factor will the groups that have been shipped in to smaller, red communities in overwhelming numbers? Could go either way in that they may form a nucleus to threaten the citizens or they could lay low. Locals are not happy about them to begin with and in red areas more likely to lethally pushback as they were to Antifa elements that tried to expand into similar areas in 2020.

These are WORST case scenarios but we have the history of 2020 to look to and see just what they did and adapt for the changes over the past four years. Be alert out there.

Countdown going big - T-4 days out from election day.

CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***

***
(FO) Federal agencies and non-governmental organizations are working with local law enforcement in multiple states to prepare for Election Day disruptions, including protests that turn violent, “SWATting” incidents, and bomb threats. “I think 2020 was to elections what 1999 and Columbine probably was to school safety planning,” former Larimer County, CO Sheriff Justin Smith said. According to Major County Sheriffs Association Executive Director Meghan Noland, the threats of violence around U.S. elections “is a new reality.”

***
Boards are going up in Washington, DC, less than a week from the election, at it seems some businesses are anticipating riots on election night.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/31/d-c-boarding-up-buildings-preparing-for-riots-on-election-night/

***
The propaganda campaign labeling Donald Trump as an aspiring dictator determined to use the military and national security apparatus against his political opponents is designed not to affect the upcoming election but rather to shape the post-election environment. It is the central piece of a narrative that, by characterizing Trump as a tyrant (indeed likening him to Hitler), establishes the conditions for violence — not just another attempt on Trump’s life, but political violence on a massive scale intended to destabilize the country.

Prominent post-election scenarios forecast such widespread rioting that the newly elected president would be compelled to invoke the Insurrection Act. With some senior military officials refusing to follow Trump’s orders, according to the scenarios, the U.S. Armed Forces would split, leaving America on the edge of the abyss.

https://realclearwire.com/articles/2024/10/29/is_the_left_preparing_for_war_if_trump_wins_1068515.html

OBSERVATION - Another reiteration of the worst case scenario following a trump win. A kind of scorched earth effort. Still hard for me to wrap my brain around the concept that there is a substantial number of democrats who would support and participate in such an effort. But then again, the reality is that since 0bama the left has been making these preparations.

RELATED -
Leaders of leftist influence groups sought to preemptively discredit potential claims of victory by former President Donald Trump and portrayed his supporters as violent in an apparent effort to pave the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to claim victory

The webinar, which happened Wednesday, was appropriately called “Red, White, and Coup.” It featured Becker; Nora Benavidez, senior counsel for the Free Press (which supports censorship and was founded by a socialist); Heidi Beirich, cofounder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (which smears conservative groups); and Damon Hewitt, president of the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law (which wages lawfare against conservatives).

Panelists cast a potential Trump claim to victory as illegitimate and suggested his supporters and those with election integrity concerns are “extremists” with a potential for violence, in what appeared to be an attempt to predetermine the narrative and set the stage for Harris to claim victory and suppress dissent.

https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/31/leftist-groups-lay-groundwork-to-call-a-trump-victory-illegitimate-smearing-his-supporters-as-violent/

MORE OBSERVATIONS - Post election could develop into the most violence seen ever in this country short of civil war. I am also hearing of potential indicators that the violent left is ramping up plans for violence.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Fewer than two dozen shipyard workers are responsible for suspicious welds that were discovered on aircraft carriers and submarines built at HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding, company officials said during an earnings call for the shipbuilder on Thursday.

“This is a process issue. This is a small fraction of some welders in the yard and a small fraction of welds that were impacted,” HII CEO Christopher Kastner said on the earnings call. “We’re working very closely with the customer to bound the issue and come through the issue, and we think we’ll march through that very smartly.”

The suspicious welds have been found aboard Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73), the Virginia-class attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover (SSN-795) and USS New Jersey (SSN-796) and up to 23 other ships built at the Virginia shipyard.

“An initial assessment at Newport News Shipbuilding determined that fewer than two dozen welders did not consistently follow procedures in their weld process,” said HII’s chief financial officer Thomas Stiehle. “We continue to work alongside with the Navy through a comprehensive investigation and analysis to determine the extent of any financial impact.”
https://news.usni.org/2024/10/31/hii-fewer-than-2-dozen-shipyard-workers-involved-in-suspect-welds-delay-in-17-sub-contract-creates-unpredictability

OBSERVATION - Even a “few” welds are unacceptable and in addition to the welders (who should know better) the hammer should also fall on the QA/QC personnel of both the contractor as well as the USN. When I was a govt employee, our QA/QC was very tight, and it had to be to ensure concrete poured for major flood control dams was done correctly.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Trump just filed a BOMBSHELL lawsuit against CBS News for interfering in the 2024 election by editing Kamala’s 60 Minutes interview. He’s seeking up to $10 BILLION in damages.

The lawsuit was filed in the Federal Northern District of Texas... which has arguably the most competent judges in the country. Trump is really about to singlehandedly bankrupt the fake news.

OBSERVATION - That’s right -BILLION. That right there makes a statement on the overt actions of this network (and inference the rest of the media) this isn’t going to be tolerated.
Democrats wanted lawfare, Trump is showing them lawfare

Biden / Harris Watch –

Even though it is not yet clear who will win the White House on Tuesday, Democrats appear to be panicking about the prospect of losing to Trump.

While some Democrats say they are increasingly hopeful that Harris will win, others have expressed mounting frustration about a string of factors that have plagued the campaign from the outset.

Fingers are being pointed at Harris and her campaign when it comes to disappointment over her messaging, particularly on the economy.

But some Democrats have already looked to pin the blame on President Biden, who some think took too long to step aside.

“People are nervous and they’re trying to cover their ass and get a little ahead of Election Day,” one Democratic strategist said of the sniping. “It’s based on anxiety, stakes and the unique nature of this cycle.

“We didn’t have a traditional process for this election. We didn’t have a primary. People just had to fall in line,” the strategist added, saying “it’s not surprising to me” that some of the blame game is happening even before Election Day.
If Harris loses, “there will be a mad dash to assign blame,” the strategist added.

https://redstate.com/jeffc/2024/10/31/panicked-democrats-already-assigning-blame-for-possible-kamala-harris-loss-n2181348

OBSERVATION - Still cautious about talk of the harris campaign imploding, but indicators like this suggest that there is a growing knowledge that something is wrong.

Illegal Immigration –

Harris doubled down on her desire to grant citizenship to the 12+ million illegals she allow to enter the country as border czar.

China –

Two People’s Liberation Army Navy aircraft carriers exercised together for the first time in the South China Sea, the People’s Liberation Army reported.

According to photos released by the PLA, Carriers CNS Liaoning (16) and CNS Shandong (17) drilled together, leading the formation with 12 carrier-based J-15 fighters flying overhead and 11 PLAN surface ships.

In a Thursday press conference, Snr. Col. Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, stated that the dual-carrier drill was a part of the PLAN’s annual training plan and aimed at enhancing the combat capability of the PLAN’s carrier strike groups (CSGs).

Although Shandong was commissioned in December 2019, the PLAN did not have its two operational carriers drilling together until this month, likely because it was taking a phased approach in building up the operational capabilities of its carriers.

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/31/video-2-chinese-aircraft-carriers-drill-together-for-the-first-time-in-south-china-sea

OBSERVATION - China’s growth and development of carriers has grown quickly, but the strategic context they are still designed and operation in is a regional power projection. For this they will work well against nations that have limited naval and other defense capabilities. China isn’t ready to park one of their carrier groups off the west coast in a threatening manner.

North/South Korea –

North Korea Foreign Minister Choe Sun Hui alongside Lavrov in Moscow: Kim Jong Un ordered to support Russia in the war against Ukraine since very beginning. Pyongyang will stand by Russia until ‘victory’ in Ukraine.

***
More details on NK’s ICBM launch. NK reports that it is a new type of road-mobile ICBM, dubbed the “Hwasong-19” which appears to have been launched from an 11-Axle Transporter, Erector, Launcher (TEL). It is believed to be a solid fuel development based on the “Hwasong-18” system. The performance suggests designed to carry a larger warhead or have a substantially longer range for smaller ones.

Russia -

*****

The Kremlin on Thursday declined to comment when asked if Russia had helped North Korea with missile technology, calling the issue a specialized one that was better fielded by the Defense Ministry

OBSERVATION - You can bet your bottom dollar that they have provided that level of support.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, drones attacked a Russian oil depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol region, and drone debris hit an apartment building in Bryansk. Reports say around 80 UAVs targeted areas within Russia. Some of them successfully hit a Russian fuel storage depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol Krai, setting multiple tanks alight.

Russian Ministry of defense claimed 41 UAVs were shot down Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Belgorod regions and over occupied Crimea

Overnight, Russia again launched a missile and drone attack.

Shot down:
1/3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
31/48 Shahed drones
Another 14 Shahed drones were taken down by electronic warfare. Three more drones returned to Belarus.

At least 2 ballistic missiles were launched at Dnipro city

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Leonidivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.

Outlook —

Russian claims of capturing villages and small towns in the Donbas region further indicate the effort to move forward in the region. They have committed a lot of people and material. When one looks on the map, the territory taken is very small and following Russian attack doctrine applied to Ukraine, there really isn’t much of anything left to call a village. Russian personnel lose continue to be as much as 40-50% higher than this spring. So they are clawing away terrain, but because of the losses they have nothing to exploit the success with.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF on high alert for what is believed to be an impending attack by Iran.

- US envoy Hochstein appears to have gummed up ceasefire efforts for Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas source: There will be no progress in negotiations on a deal - before the US elections

U.S. asked Lebanon to declare unilateral ceasefire with Israel in an effort to help along talks for a final resolution to the war, two sources to Reuters It was communicated by Amos Hochstein to Lebanese PM Najib Mikati and aimed to give Beirut some initiative.
NOTE - Israel is at war with Hezbollah, not Lebanon. Hochstein is a joke.

Following today’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Biden’s Envoys on Middle Eastern Affairs, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk; the Chance of apeaceful settlement in Lebanon is said to have drastically decreased. Hochstein, who was initially meant to travel to Beirut after the meeting, will instead return to the United States. (NOTE - Apparently he did go to Beirut - see comment above)

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1852038805760438326?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Sky News in Arabic: There is less optimism about reaching a ceasefire deal in Lebanon in the coming days after Biden envoy Amos Hochstein’s visit to Israel.

Israeli army: Air force attacked 150 targets in Gaza and Lebanon in the past 24 hours

Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel killed seven people in agricultural fields near Metula and Haifa Thursday, marking what appeared to be the deadliest day in months for civilians inside Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas et al continues to be reduced in N Gaza. More reports of mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated personnel.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck a series of Hezbollah sites in Beirut and in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, the Israeli army says. In the Lebanese capital, weapon manufacturing plants, command centers, and other infrastructure were struck, according to the military

Fighting is still fierce for the towns of Khiyam, Yaroun and Maroun al-Ras, southern Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

UNRWA: Israeli bulldozers damaged our office in Nour Shams camp in the West Bank. Israel denies the claim.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Rumors that Iranian backed militias in Iraq will be the source of the next major attack on Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Leave it to biden to screw up the move for a potential cease fire in Lebanon. Hochstein most likely wanted to impose additional restrictions to Israel’s part of the deal which would negate the disarmament of Hezbollah and withdrawal north of the Litiani River.

Israel continues to pummel Hezbollah ammo dumps and production plants, command and control and other key targets in and around Beirut, Tyre and Baalbek. All the while providing CAS to the ground ops in S Lebanon. Hezbollah looks to be finally trying to make a stand in Khiyam, Yaroun and Maroun al-Ras. They likely have considerable weapons and munitions in underground storage (as been encountered by IDF in other border villages), but they are essentially fighting on their own, isolated from the support they have planned on. Their time is running out.

I’ve commented on the rumors that Iran will use Iraq to stage its next strike against Israel under Iran below. Looks like a misdirect. Any such effort under the watchful eyes of Israeli (and to some degree US) intelligence, would be grounds for a preemptive strike on these forces.

The fact that the IDF is on heightened alert does indicate that intelligence is pointing to an imminent attack by Iran - possibly before the US election - as threatened. The western mind can only consider this to be foolishness, but the arab mind Iran has to respond. Israel hit them hard enough to embarrass them and show the rest of the arab world their weakness.

Netanyahu knows that and may well be counting on it since he is aware of the western worlds view of things as well and in particular, the US elections. Any Iranian attack between now and the elections will allow Israel to absolutely pummel Iran in a much freer manner - and that will be very bad news for Iran. FAFO on steroids.

Israel’s announced retaliatory strike still looks to be held off until after the US election. It may also be balanced against a possible preemptive strike on Iran. We’ll have to wait and see.

Finally, Gaza is becoming more and more subdued - especially in the north. This is the kind of operation that was foreseen following the fall of the Philadelphi corridor and Rafah this summer. The plight of the hostages tends to be buried under other aspects of the overall conflict and I am rather pessimistic that they are still alive at this stage. The only hope that at least some are still alive is that Hamas is still trying to use them as leverage in any ceasefire agreement.

Iran –

A report in the New York Times: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directed Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to prepare for an attack on Israel. It was also reported that Khamenei made the decision to respond after reviewing a detailed military report on the extent of the damage caused by the Israeli attack.

***
Iran plans to attack Israel from Iraqi territory within days, say 2 Israeli sources; assault will involve hundreds of missiles & drones, Walla News reports; Iran hopes to shield itself from direct Israeli retaliation by launching the strike from Iraq, report says.

It appears Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces is away at the moment. His plane headed west across the Mediterranean

Falih Al-Fayyadh, the Chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Main Iranian-Backed Paramilitary Forces in Iraq, was spotted today in Tehran with the Commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Brigadier General Esmail Qaani

OBSERVATION - I am skeptical about Iran launching its attack via proxies from Iraq. Though sneaky in that it could provide plausible deniability to the regime, it is questionable that the Iranian backed militias have the trained personnel as well as the numbers of rockets, launch vehicles/platforms and storage to conduct such an attack on short notice. Same with drones, though these militias have fired several daily, a mass launch would be hard pressed to accomplish IMHO. It is more likely that these Iranian mllitias will join with supporting fire - principally drones - to help overwhelm the Israeli defense systems.

Countdown going big - T-3 days out from election day.

It is now Saturday in the middle east - will the rumored Iranian attack happen?

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bill Gates has announced on Reid Hoffman’s podcast that a new religion should be created, centered around Artificial Intelligence.

Gates told Hoffman on his Possible podcast, “The potential positive path (of AI) is so good that it will force us to rethink how should we use our time. You can almost call it a new religion or a new philosophy of how do we stay connected with each other, and not be addicted to these things that will make video games look like nothing in terms of the attractiveness of spending time on them.”

https://protestia.com/2024/11/01/bill-gates-declares-need-for-new-world-religion-created-from-a-i/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Globalists want to eliminate Christianity as its standard of Christ is King is not compatible with its goals. It can manipulate other religions at this stage of the game.

CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***

My muddled meanderings as the election draws near -

The desperate and dishonest claims of the democrats as the election tumbles into the final days also has a tone of the calm before the storm. The final volleys of rhetoric are being set off and the plan “B” are being prepped.

A lot of assessment and concerns that no matter who wins Tuesday, violence will break out. Also, given the already announcements that several key states will not have voting counts finalize for over a week is going to add fuel to the fire unless trump hits the goal of too big to cheat (though they will still try).

An uncertain election result will generate rallies and protests, similar to the hanging chads of the Before Years, but this time around bring leftist violence against trump supporters. But this time, I don’t think it will go well for them.

I’m referring to the example of Based Stickman, and his cohorts who in March 2017 rose up against the proto-antifa elements attacking trump rallies at Berkeley CA and kicked their butts. Too much poking the bear has gone on and any antifa/leftist violence will be met accordingly.

Remember, the biden regime will still be in charge for two more months and they can and likely will do a lot of nasty things to prevent their removal from power in the face of a trump victory. They’ve displayed the willingness over the past nearly 4 years to flout the law and develop the weaponized alphabet agencies for just a time like this.

Contemplation of such a potential level of violence is disturbing, this is not the America I grew up in and served in the military for. But the trend of violence perpetrated by the left is upward and increasingly unavoidable.

I pray God intervenes but has He closed his ears due to the unrighteousness of this country?

***
Growing increasingly desperate in a tight presidential race, leftist groups appear to be turning to the intimidation game just days before the election.

The Maryland Attorney General’s Office is warning the infamous Voter Participation Center to stop sending mailers to residents “threatening to expose” their voting records.

Attorney General Anthony Brown, a Democrat, sent the VPC a cease-and-desist letter after Marylanders complained of receiving the group’s so-called “voting report card” attempting to shame people into voting.

In a press release, Brown admonished the voter registration activist group that “any action that intimidates prospective voters, especially on the eve of such a consequential election, will not be tolerated.”

“Voting is among the most important rights that Marylanders have,” the AG wrote. “Let me be clear: these unnerving letters are unacceptable, and Maryland voters should know that their decision to vote this Election Day is entirely theirs to make.”

Maryland residents aren’t the only Americans receiving threatening voting messages.

Parker Thayer, investigative researcher at the Capital Research Center noted on X, the leftist group NowThis Impact created a website that shows users how to “stalk the voting history of an ex, friend, or family member and bully them for not voting.”

https://thefederalist.com/2024/11/01/leftist-groups-turn-to-threats-to-get-out-the-vote/

OBSERVATION - This is a form of threat of doxxing voters to intimidate them to vote for - obviously - harris. Other leftist groups have been very busy with similar vote fraud schemes, one that caught my attention is the efforts of an Arizona group to dupe the Amish vote in PA.
With a trump victory, such databases would be screened by violent leftists to identify and target trump voters- bringing violence to their homes.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Job creation laid an egg in October, with the lowest additions in almost four years — and that was in the middle of the pandemic. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added only 12,000 jobs last month — but the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%:

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
Does the strike explain the low figure? Only to a point. Manufacturing took a big hit, but not that big of a hit, from Boeing and other strikes in October:

Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity.

Let’s assume the strike never took place. We can add all 44,000 jobs back into the mix, and we’d still only have 56,000 jobs added in October, a level far below maintenance level in the American economy. It would still be the lowest number of 2024, at least, if not the last couple of years.

And that’s hardly the only bad news on the job-creation front. Revisions of the previous two months have subtracted six figures from the reported job pool:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported.

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/11/01/new-us-adds-only-12000-jobs-in-october-n3796552?fbclid=IwY2xjawGRuWBleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHW5tRp4gXV9jgxgfycbyBVI0XiPZDExgcsAxwsmNMP_qSzHhZHE8IxXTQA_aem_fOmpKp3uijHYaR0eVJn4Mw

OBSERVATION - This is not evidence of the glowing economy the democrats want to portray. The only reason the stock market didn’t tank was that these numbers would be used to force the Fed do drop its rates and faster. Revisions to previous months showed an over statement of 112,000 jobs, combined with the previous mega adjustment, the administration has overstated job creation over the past year by over a million.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is sending additional bomber aircraft and Navy warships to the Middle East to bolster the US presence in the region as an aircraft carrier and its warships are preparing to leave, AP reported Friday citing US officials, amid reports that Tehran is preparing for a retaliatory attack on Israel.

Austin ordered several B-52 Stratofortress bomber aircraft, tanker aircraft and Navy destroyers to deploy to the Middle East, four US and defense officials said

The 2 to 5 B-52s being deployed from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana won’t be deployed to the Middle East, instead they will likely be stationed on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

According to a U.S. official, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and the three Navy destroyers in its strike group are scheduled to leave the Middle East by mid-month and return to their home port in San Diego.

When it departs, there will be no aircraft carrier in the Middle East for a period of time, the official said. Officials declined to say how long that gap would last.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/middle-east-us-military-bombers-warships/2024/11/01/id/1186399/#ixzz8qNwefDLt

OBSERVATION - Deployments like this are only as good as the resolve to use the force if necessary they bring with them. The coddling of Iran by the biden regime makes it highly questionable that any of these assets will be used directly against Iran, except for potentially to assist in the anti ballistic missile defense if Israel as it has in the past two Iranian missile attacks.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

The Harris campaign has asked mark cuban to step away from being a surrogate during the final days of the campaign after his comment about “no smart independent woman would vote for Trump”.
The Harris campaign feels these remarks are intentional and specifically aimed at tanking her campaign with only days left until Election Day.

Overnight, in a spasm of desperation, democrats crafted a totally bogus claim that trump called for the assassination of Cheney when clear reading of the statement he made said no such thing. Some democrats are now backpedaling and calling for the lie to stop.

JLo and CardiB made cringeworthy appeals to support harris.

Illegal Immigration –

Growing rumors that Mexico is holding back an immigration surge until after the election.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

RUMINT –

Ukrainian military intelligence: North Korea deployed about 7000 servicemen to the border of Ukraine, armed with small arms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian focused a large drone attack on the Kyiv region overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 39 of 71 strike drones. Heavy hits to civilian apartments and facilities.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.

Crimean front —

Violent explosions were reported in Dzhankoi district from Ukraine drone/missile strikes

Outlook —

As the N Koreans track closer and closer into battle, a quick reality check indicates that the above listed elements - 7000 - is less than two weeks worth of casualties Russia has been suffering in the war. As I noted, this loss trend is now about 40,000 / month. Russia has been struggling to bring 25,000 to 30,000 per month for replacements. Mostly symbolic but a image of Russia’s declining capability to conscript recruits for the war, as over 600K have been causalities since the war’s start.

Poland –

Poland has started the construction of 400 km (250 miles) defensive line on the borders with Russia and Belarus.

The “Eastern Shield” line will consists of 800 km of ditches, defensive fortifications, minefields and anti-tank obstacles.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel remains on alert for Iranian attack.

- Iran threatens to develop nuclear weapons.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US Sec Def Lloyd Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people”

The deployment of more US forces to the MiddleEast is “In keeping with our commitments to the protection of US citizens and forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy” per Pentagon PresSec

***
Top Hamas official Izz al-Din Kassab was killed Friday in an airstrike in the southern Gaza Strip, the IDF and Shin Bet announced.
Kasab was one of the last remaining members of Hamas’s political bureau, where he served as head of national relations.
According to the military, he was responsible for coordination between Hamas and the other terror groups in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF concentrating on N Gaza (Jamblia Camp area) as well in Central Gaza (Nuseirat area) overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Antoine Zahra, an Executive Member of the Lebanese Forces Party in Lebanon’s Parliament:
“No Target in Lebanon was bombed randomly, Israel avoids harming civilians as much as possible.”

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/43588

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army carried out a raid at dawn today on the Al-Qaa-Josi crossing, east of the north of the country

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iraqi paramilitary groups under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have reportedly been placed into a “High-Level of Readiness” as they prepare to join the war against Israel, under orders from Iran.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

As noted up front - this is Saturday and will Iran go for it as rumored. I place the rumored Iraqi based attack at a much lower threshold for simply raw logistical reasons. The militias there need TELs for the shorter range ballistic missiles- probably SCUD equivalent for us old foggies - and they have to get dozens there without Israel (or the US) detecting them. Drones are logistically simpler, but still challenging to bring hundreds into country on short notice undetected.

Hence, if Iran is feeling froggy, it will come from Iran proper for the most part.

I shrug my shoulders at the US military reinforcements goin into the region. Useful for contributing to Israeli defense against ballistic missiles, I seriously doubt ANYONE in the WH has the resolve to actually strike Iranian targets. A paper tiger after a fashion.

In Lebanon, the peace talks have broke down to a degree, thanks to the US. Israel is on track to continue to prosecute the war in the manner it sees fit. The fight for three key Lebanese towns continue, developed into fortresses over the past decade. Airstrikes pound the Hezbollah rocket and drone supplies with IDF estimates that they only have about 10% of their drones intact, and have lost a significant number of drone operators as well. Losses to their rocket and missile supplies have resulted in a corresponding low rate of rocket attacks.
CAS and other tactical air strikes continue across the south.

Israel PR and vocalized support to opposition groups to Hezbollah seems to continue to gain traction. Israel’s efforts to warn non-Hezbollah civilians of air strikes and the clear avoidance of targeting civilians randomly is working and being recognized by the Lebanese.

In Gaza, Hamas et al, continues to be isolated and liquidated. The Israeli plan to allow them to regroup then strike them again is working to take out the most loyal remaining fighters.

Iran –

IRGC Spokesman: Israel’s supporters must understand Tehran has the right to respond to recent attack on Iran.

***
Adviser to Iran’s Leader says that “if Iran faces an existential threat”, it will change its nuclear doctrine. He added, “We now have the necessary ability to produce nuclear weapons, and the only obstacle is the fatwa of the Leader, which has banned the production of nukes”

***
Iran is reportedly signaling that it will now respond to Israel’s limited strike on Iranian military and missile production facilities last week after it initially sought to downplay the incident because it wanted to avoid escalating a military conflict against a far superior opponent.

Analysts say that Iran is stuck between a rock and a hard place because if it does not respond, it will appear weak and lose credibility with its allies and terrorist proxy groups. Not responding will also embolden opposition groups in the country that are ganging popularity as the country increasingly sours on the regime.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/

OBSERVATION - That would be the final step for Iran, as Israel will jump to the occasion to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities. Even if Iran is able to construct a device and successfully test it, the damage that Israel could / will inflict on the program would seriously set it back many years. After Israel’s latest attack on Iran, it is now clear that the buffer Iran thought it once had is no longer there.

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