Countdown going big - T-5 days out from election day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) has launched an initiative to investigate the role major internet domain companies have taken in the spread of so-called disinformation, primarily from Russia.
Warner’s focus includes prominent players in the digital space such as Cloudflare, GoDaddy, NameCheap, NameSilo, Newfold and Verisign. However, critics argue that Warner is just laying the groundwork for a government system that could inevitably be used to suppress online dissent.
The senator’s strategy is notable not for its tactics but for its ambition. By shifting his focus to the core of internet infrastructure – domain registrars – he is bypassing social media and diving into the foundational aspects of the web.
OBSERVATION - Censorship is the goal of the globalist cabal- its been the regular drum beat for over many years now, only to be crescendoing this past few years. They continue to seek out ways around resistance as the effort by WEF syncopate Warner is attempting. BTW, even though Russia has been playing around in the cyber world to mess with the election - Russian “disinformation” has also been a code word branding any and all information that is contrary to the regime’s narrative.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***
***
Jamie Raskin (D): Let people vote for Trump if they want, we’re not gonna certify the election anyways, so he may be elected but we are not going to let him be inaugurated.
OBSERVATION - Declaration of insurrection even before the election. Growing evidence that the controlling far left faction of the DNC is preparing to potentially initiate civil war in the event of a trump win
***
U.S. Department of Energy that has begun tracking employees’ beliefs through a plan to monitor employment accommodations.
The DOE has claimed its accumulation of information about employees’ beliefs is needed to “collect, maintain, and disseminate records on employees and applicants for employment who seek and receive medical and non-medical accommodations.”
Also caught up in the information dragnet is information about workers with varying disabilities, and their accommodations.
But it also insists on keeping records regarding, “Federal employees or applicants for employment requesting accommodation based on a ‘sincerely held’ religious belief, practice, or observance under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. This system includes requests for a medical or religious accommodation.”
The report said Lankford has concerns that “collecting detailed records on an individual’s sincerely held religious beliefs and practices — alongside other personal and sensitive information — poses a significant threat to the privacy and religious freedoms of federal employees.”
https://www.wnd.com/2024/10/significant-threat-federal-government-launches-plan-to-track-faith-data/
OBSERVATION - This can also be lumped under globalism/great reset. Remember, this is the same govt that classified pro-life groups as ‘domestic terrorists’. If the govt expands this to apply it across the board, the potential for discrimination based on religion will skyrocket - in one way by providing targets for the LGBT et al community to strike at.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
CDC has reportedly added 3 wuhan jabs to child vaccination schemes from 0 - 6. All with no supporting testing or other proofs.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Fighting in the legal trenches and the polling booth-
The Supreme Court allowed Virginia on Wednesday to remove individuals identified as noncitizens from the voter rolls.
The justices paused a lower court order preventing officials from removing around 1,600 individuals who the state said “self-identified” as noncitizens.
Rasmussen - Michigan: One voter ID with 29 separate “votes”
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson says there is a “NATIONWIDE ISSUE with Dominion Voter Access Terminals,” preventing voters from making certain selections. These ‘selections’ appear to be related to down ballot republican selections.
According to her office, this “programming issue” CANNOT be fixed, and voters are being forced to deal with it.
Colorado House Republicans are calling for Secretary of State Jena Griswold to resign following a serious breach of election security protocols. Her office’s recent posting of critical election system passwords online (for a month) has raised significant concerns about the accountability of our voting system.
A Judge has ruled PA Gov Josh Shapiro was breaking Election Law by using uniformed officers to block early voting lines. Judge ruled two additional days of early voting to remediate the violation.
OBSERVATIONS - I think I’ve noted this earlier. The combination of the emphasis by trump to vote early and more aggressive monitoring of the democrat cheat plan is resulting in a lot of these cheats being caught and now by law being reversed before election day. It doesn’t mean that the democrats/leftists won’t put on a full court press here in a few days, but it does establish the cheating and has forced the judiciary to step in rather than play the games they did last election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik and Oversight Chairman James Comer are raising concerns the Biden-Harris White House may have violated the Presidential Records Act by revising President Biden’s remarks, in which he referred to President Trump’s supporters as “garbage.”
PS - if you have’t listened to trump’s discussion about getting into the garbage truck and wearing the vest at the rally - you really need to. Classic golden trump.
***
Where has the ‘joy’ gone? Chaos broke loose at Kamala Harris event in Harrisburg, PA as dozens of protestors yell out slogans like “Kamala supports genocide”, “blood on your hands”, and “f* you.” This follows friction from pro-hamas / pro-palestine protestors that were kept out of harris’ DC rally and who later harassed harrisites as they left the rally.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, which flew for 86 minutes - the longest flight recorded yet - before falling into waters off its east, South Korea and Japan said.
The ICBM was fired at a sharply-raised angle and reached as high as 7,000km (4,350 miles). This means that it would have covered a further distance if it were launched horizontally.
Pyongyang last fired an ICBM in December 2023, in defiance of long-standing and crippling UN sanctions. That test of the Solid-Fuel “Hwaseong-18” ICBM travelled for 73 minutes and covered about 1,000km.
North Korea experts believe the launch was aimed at increasing its missiles’ payload.
The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol has called for a “Strong Response” to last night’a launch, with him directing the National Security Council to prepare for further surprise provocations.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgry8rpzn4o
OBSERVATION - Observers are suggesting that this may be a New Variant of ICBM. Clearly a substantial increase in performance by a factor close to 7X. One can only begin to link the jump in ICBM capabilities to the growing partnership with Russia.
The distance between NK and the US is 6,386 miles / 10,277 km. Los Angeles, which is about 9,500 kilometers away. So as noted above, the strategic range of this missile is more than the 7,000km (4,350 miles) from the test. Clearly places a large section of the US within range.
Japan –
See NK missile test above.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a missile and drone attack
Shot down:
0/4 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
2/8 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
40/43 Shahed drones
Another 3 Shahed drones returned to Russian airspace.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yasna Poliana town in Donetsk region of Ukraine
***
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that North Korean troops wearing Russian uniforms and carrying Russian equipment are moving toward Ukraine, in what he called a dangerous and destabilizing development.
The US and South Korea say some of the North Korean troops are heading to Russia’s Kursk region on the border with Ukraine, where the Kremlin’s forces have struggled to push back a Ukrainian incursion.
Some North Korean advance units have already arrived in the Kursk region, and Austin said “the likelihood is pretty high” that Russia will use the troops in combat.
The US has estimated there are about 10,000 North Korean troops now in Russia. Seoul and its allies assess that the number dispatched to Russia has increased to 11,000, according to a senior South Korean presidential official, who spoke on condition of anonymity during a background briefing.
More than 3,000 of them are believed to have moved toward combat zones in western Russia, the South Korean official said, without specifying the locations.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Russia is preparing an armored assault on Zaporizhzhia, says Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn. After conducting drills on occupied territory, Russian forces plan to deploy this equipment near two settlements in the region.
Outlook —
The deployment of the NK soldiers continues to be on the front burner. They apparently will be wearing Russian uniforms, though I suspect they will have some sort of NK patch for identification.
Rumors of a Zaporizhzhia front Russia offensive have bubbled to the surface again. While the thought may be that Ukraine has diverted forces from this region for the fight in the Donbas, granting limited troop superiority for Russia, initiation of an offensive as the mud season arrives would just bog down the operation very quickly.
Mud season is also driving the Russian effort to gain as much territory in the Donbas as possible. Depending upon the success of the NK manning the fight in Kursk freeing up units to go back south to the Donbas, Russia is running out of time. As I estimated, over the past few months Russian casualties have risen by about 25% or more - to the 40K range - and so far Russia has only been able to maintain about 30K in replacements per month.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Apparent movement towards a ceasefire in Lebanon
- Alerts that Iran may launch an attack before the US election, perhaps as early as Saturday, continue to grow.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Senior Hamas officials says they reject the idea of a temporary ceasefire with Israel but supports any proposal that leads to a permanent cessation of the war
***
CNN report: Iran decided to respond to Israel’s attack on Saturday. According to them, this will be a decisive and painful response and might even happen before the US presidential elections
Reports a Senior Iranian Official has told the U.S media that Iran will respond to the attack before the U.S elections and that it will be “Definitive and Painful”
CNN reports according to a high-ranking Iranian official that Iran will launch a massive attack on Israel within days.
Israeli sources said if Iran does so, Israel will respond by destroying Iran’s nuclear sites and oil infrastructure
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas et al continues to be reduced in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army is making advances from the eastern outskirts of Khiam. This is a key piece of terrain that Hezbollah has historically used to direct artillery / rockets onto N Israel.
20 rockets were fired by Hezbollah towards Karmiel and its surroundings in the Galilee
Israeli Broadcasting Authority: The army will withdraw from Lebanon within a week and will resume its operations if the agreement is violated
****
Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon’s MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night.
The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to events in Gaza.
MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden’s envoy to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change in Netanyahu’s position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/2024-10-31/live-updates-826925
***
Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati states that the conditions of an Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire are clear, and that they are ready to deploy the Lebanese Army in force across southern Lebanon, in order to ensure the implementation and adherence of non-state actors (ie Hezbollah and other islamic terror groups) with UNSC Resolution 1701.
***
After the IDF issued another warning to the residents of Baalbek and the surrounding area to evacuate, a new wave of attacks hammered the area. Included in this was striking a petroleum storage area used by Hezbollah.
***
More massive airstrikes in Tyre.
***
Naim Qassem, the new Hezbollah leader, has fled to Iran for fear of his life. In this new photo he is on a flight to the city of Mashhad in northeast Iran.
His first speech to his followers was interrupted by ‘technical difficulties’ claimed to be from a cyber attack by Israel.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli air strikes target Al-Qaa-Jousieh crossing between Syria and Lebanon
A massive Israeli strike in area of Qusseir, south of Homs, in area of the border crossing. Reports a bridge was also bombed
The IDF took a relatively unusual responsibility for the attack in Syria: “We attacked military warehouses and headquarters of the Radwan force and Hezbollah in the Al Qusayr area in Syria.”
This is an area that is very close to the border with Lebanon and it is about military equipment that is apparently destined to be smuggled into Lebanese territory.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces (IDF, Border Police, and Shin Bet) carried out a counterterrorism operation in Nour Shams, West Bank, which included an airstrike targeting armed terrorists.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over the last 24 Hours, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed to have launched at least five drone attacks against Northern and Southern Israel.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1851852423805223343?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The extent of the concessions by Hezbollah to the Israeli demands for the implementation of a cease fire indicate the depth to which Israel has decimated the organization. Israel is willing that the Lebanese army do its job under UN 1701 and disarm Hezbollah while maintaining its full readiness to strike Hezbollah if they try to cheat the deal. The defeat of Hezbollah has provided some back bone to the Lebanese to stand up against them and take control of the country back.
The decoupling of Hezbollah from Hamas is very significant and support of Hamas was the justification for the attacks against Israel. But the decoupling really wasn’t too hard for them to recognize. First, they are members of opposing religious sects of islam - the famous Sunni vs Shia split. The second was Hamas’ premature launch on Oct 7 in an effort to steal glory from Hezbollah. Lots of bad blood between the two.
Israel’s drive to three key cities in S Lebanon, Karmiel being one of the key ones, will likely be the final major actions prior to any ceasefire.
Gaza continues to go with sporadic fierce fights as Israel locates and hit remnant Hamas and allied terror cells. Hamas seems to be moving closer to Israeli demands for a cease fire.
Finally, I’m reassessing my view of the potential for an Iranian attack before the US election. More divergent sources alerting to an attack, including Iran itself. Shaking my head, it is growing that Iran is actually serous about launching another attack. They are deep into the FO that the FA this next time will be brutal.
Countered against this is the Israeli retaliatory attack for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home AND potential preemptive strike on Iran. A preemptive strike in some ways would be a better outcome if before the election as it would like focus on missile launch sites and facilities whereas the retaliatory one would hit the nuke and oil targets.
Politically, for the US, a major Iranian attack is likely to hurt harris more than trump, given the resurgence the anti-israel wing of the progressive democrat party.
We may see how serious Iran is in the next few days. Otherwise the ball is in Israel’s court
Iran –
Germany has ordered the closure of all three Iranian consulates following Iran’s execution of Jamshid Sharmahd, a 69-year-old German-Iranian dissident abducted by Iranian agents in Dubai four years ago.
Syria -
CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes against several ISIS camps in Syria
A missile attack targeted the American base in the Al-Omar oil field in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria
Misc of Note –
I’m posting this here so as not to clutter the CW2 and political sections above. There has been a notable growth from democrats/progressives over their threats and plans to use violence as a tool to prevent Trump from being sworn in. Tactics range from arrest (for the bogus convictions), to flat out rioting and destruction.
Your ‘rank and file’ democrat has a low probability of violence, though recent surveys indicate that they would condone it against trump and republicans.
The actual foot soldiers would likely be Antifa and affiliated. They would form the core and then the other strap hangers - BLM and anti-israel - groups would join. However, these groups have been relatively quiet in the run up to the election. But a trump win may just be the unifying action to restart them.
The wild card will be just what will the 12 million of so illegals brought into the US by biden/harris do if rioting kicks off? I will go on a limb and say that there are some specific groups that will act - primarily moslems, Chinese and ‘gangs’.
As with the Floyd riots of 2020, major urban centers will be ground zero for the initial riots which will spread to some of the suburban areas. What factor will the groups that have been shipped in to smaller, red communities in overwhelming numbers? Could go either way in that they may form a nucleus to threaten the citizens or they could lay low. Locals are not happy about them to begin with and in red areas more likely to lethally pushback as they were to Antifa elements that tried to expand into similar areas in 2020.
These are WORST case scenarios but we have the history of 2020 to look to and see just what they did and adapt for the changes over the past four years. Be alert out there.
Going to above
ALERT
Iran is reportedly taking actions indicating imminent attack against Israel. This is beyond the rhetoric. Reports of missile movement and clearing air space.
Ping to the last post of post 1107 copied here below:
“Misc of Note –
I’m posting this here so as not to clutter the CW2 and political sections above. There has been a notable growth from democrats/progressives over their threats and plans to use violence as a tool to prevent Trump from being sworn in. Tactics range from arrest (for the bogus convictions), to flat out rioting and destruction.
Your ‘rank and file’ democrat has a low probability of violence, though recent surveys indicate that they would condone it against trump and republicans.
The actual foot soldiers would likely be Antifa and affiliated. They would form the core and then the other strap hangers - BLM and anti-israel - groups would join. However, these groups have been relatively quiet in the run up to the election. But a trump win may just be the unifying action to restart them.
The wild card will be just what will the 12 million of so illegals brought into the US by biden/harris do if rioting kicks off? I will go on a limb and say that there are some specific groups that will act - primarily moslems, Chinese and ‘gangs’.
As with the Floyd riots of 2020, major urban centers will be ground zero for the initial riots which will spread to some of the suburban areas. What factor will the groups that have been shipped in to smaller, red communities in overwhelming numbers? Could go either way in that they may form a nucleus to threaten the citizens or they could lay low. Locals are not happy about them to begin with and in red areas more likely to lethally pushback as they were to Antifa elements that tried to expand into similar areas in 2020.
These are WORST case scenarios but we have the history of 2020 to look to and see just what they did and adapt for the changes over the past four years. Be alert out there.”
Countdown going big - T-4 days out from election day.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
*** Level increased based on the elevated rhetoric from democrats/ leftists in the face of a increasingly probable trump win. ***
***
(FO) Federal agencies and non-governmental organizations are working with local law enforcement in multiple states to prepare for Election Day disruptions, including protests that turn violent, “SWATting” incidents, and bomb threats. “I think 2020 was to elections what 1999 and Columbine probably was to school safety planning,” former Larimer County, CO Sheriff Justin Smith said. According to Major County Sheriffs Association Executive Director Meghan Noland, the threats of violence around U.S. elections “is a new reality.”
***
Boards are going up in Washington, DC, less than a week from the election, at it seems some businesses are anticipating riots on election night.
***
The propaganda campaign labeling Donald Trump as an aspiring dictator determined to use the military and national security apparatus against his political opponents is designed not to affect the upcoming election but rather to shape the post-election environment. It is the central piece of a narrative that, by characterizing Trump as a tyrant (indeed likening him to Hitler), establishes the conditions for violence — not just another attempt on Trump’s life, but political violence on a massive scale intended to destabilize the country.
Prominent post-election scenarios forecast such widespread rioting that the newly elected president would be compelled to invoke the Insurrection Act. With some senior military officials refusing to follow Trump’s orders, according to the scenarios, the U.S. Armed Forces would split, leaving America on the edge of the abyss.
OBSERVATION - Another reiteration of the worst case scenario following a trump win. A kind of scorched earth effort. Still hard for me to wrap my brain around the concept that there is a substantial number of democrats who would support and participate in such an effort. But then again, the reality is that since 0bama the left has been making these preparations.
RELATED -
Leaders of leftist influence groups sought to preemptively discredit potential claims of victory by former President Donald Trump and portrayed his supporters as violent in an apparent effort to pave the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to claim victory
The webinar, which happened Wednesday, was appropriately called “Red, White, and Coup.” It featured Becker; Nora Benavidez, senior counsel for the Free Press (which supports censorship and was founded by a socialist); Heidi Beirich, cofounder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (which smears conservative groups); and Damon Hewitt, president of the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law (which wages lawfare against conservatives).
Panelists cast a potential Trump claim to victory as illegitimate and suggested his supporters and those with election integrity concerns are “extremists” with a potential for violence, in what appeared to be an attempt to predetermine the narrative and set the stage for Harris to claim victory and suppress dissent.
MORE OBSERVATIONS - Post election could develop into the most violence seen ever in this country short of civil war. I am also hearing of potential indicators that the violent left is ramping up plans for violence.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Fewer than two dozen shipyard workers are responsible for suspicious welds that were discovered on aircraft carriers and submarines built at HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding, company officials said during an earnings call for the shipbuilder on Thursday.
“This is a process issue. This is a small fraction of some welders in the yard and a small fraction of welds that were impacted,” HII CEO Christopher Kastner said on the earnings call. “We’re working very closely with the customer to bound the issue and come through the issue, and we think we’ll march through that very smartly.”
The suspicious welds have been found aboard Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73), the Virginia-class attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover (SSN-795) and USS New Jersey (SSN-796) and up to 23 other ships built at the Virginia shipyard.
“An initial assessment at Newport News Shipbuilding determined that fewer than two dozen welders did not consistently follow procedures in their weld process,” said HII’s chief financial officer Thomas Stiehle. “We continue to work alongside with the Navy through a comprehensive investigation and analysis to determine the extent of any financial impact.”
https://news.usni.org/2024/10/31/hii-fewer-than-2-dozen-shipyard-workers-involved-in-suspect-welds-delay-in-17-sub-contract-creates-unpredictability
OBSERVATION - Even a “few” welds are unacceptable and in addition to the welders (who should know better) the hammer should also fall on the QA/QC personnel of both the contractor as well as the USN. When I was a govt employee, our QA/QC was very tight, and it had to be to ensure concrete poured for major flood control dams was done correctly.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Trump just filed a BOMBSHELL lawsuit against CBS News for interfering in the 2024 election by editing Kamala’s 60 Minutes interview. He’s seeking up to $10 BILLION in damages.
The lawsuit was filed in the Federal Northern District of Texas... which has arguably the most competent judges in the country. Trump is really about to singlehandedly bankrupt the fake news.
OBSERVATION - That’s right -BILLION. That right there makes a statement on the overt actions of this network (and inference the rest of the media) this isn’t going to be tolerated.
Democrats wanted lawfare, Trump is showing them lawfare
Biden / Harris Watch –
Even though it is not yet clear who will win the White House on Tuesday, Democrats appear to be panicking about the prospect of losing to Trump.
While some Democrats say they are increasingly hopeful that Harris will win, others have expressed mounting frustration about a string of factors that have plagued the campaign from the outset.
Fingers are being pointed at Harris and her campaign when it comes to disappointment over her messaging, particularly on the economy.
But some Democrats have already looked to pin the blame on President Biden, who some think took too long to step aside.
“People are nervous and they’re trying to cover their ass and get a little ahead of Election Day,” one Democratic strategist said of the sniping. “It’s based on anxiety, stakes and the unique nature of this cycle.
“We didn’t have a traditional process for this election. We didn’t have a primary. People just had to fall in line,” the strategist added, saying “it’s not surprising to me” that some of the blame game is happening even before Election Day.
If Harris loses, “there will be a mad dash to assign blame,” the strategist added.
OBSERVATION - Still cautious about talk of the harris campaign imploding, but indicators like this suggest that there is a growing knowledge that something is wrong.
Illegal Immigration –
Harris doubled down on her desire to grant citizenship to the 12+ million illegals she allow to enter the country as border czar.
China –
Two People’s Liberation Army Navy aircraft carriers exercised together for the first time in the South China Sea, the People’s Liberation Army reported.
According to photos released by the PLA, Carriers CNS Liaoning (16) and CNS Shandong (17) drilled together, leading the formation with 12 carrier-based J-15 fighters flying overhead and 11 PLAN surface ships.
In a Thursday press conference, Snr. Col. Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, stated that the dual-carrier drill was a part of the PLAN’s annual training plan and aimed at enhancing the combat capability of the PLAN’s carrier strike groups (CSGs).
Although Shandong was commissioned in December 2019, the PLAN did not have its two operational carriers drilling together until this month, likely because it was taking a phased approach in building up the operational capabilities of its carriers.
OBSERVATION - China’s growth and development of carriers has grown quickly, but the strategic context they are still designed and operation in is a regional power projection. For this they will work well against nations that have limited naval and other defense capabilities. China isn’t ready to park one of their carrier groups off the west coast in a threatening manner.
North/South Korea –
North Korea Foreign Minister Choe Sun Hui alongside Lavrov in Moscow: Kim Jong Un ordered to support Russia in the war against Ukraine since very beginning. Pyongyang will stand by Russia until ‘victory’ in Ukraine.
***
More details on NK’s ICBM launch. NK reports that it is a new type of road-mobile ICBM, dubbed the “Hwasong-19” which appears to have been launched from an 11-Axle Transporter, Erector, Launcher (TEL). It is believed to be a solid fuel development based on the “Hwasong-18” system. The performance suggests designed to carry a larger warhead or have a substantially longer range for smaller ones.
Russia -
*****
The Kremlin on Thursday declined to comment when asked if Russia had helped North Korea with missile technology, calling the issue a specialized one that was better fielded by the Defense Ministry
OBSERVATION - You can bet your bottom dollar that they have provided that level of support.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, drones attacked a Russian oil depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol region, and drone debris hit an apartment building in Bryansk. Reports say around 80 UAVs targeted areas within Russia. Some of them successfully hit a Russian fuel storage depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol Krai, setting multiple tanks alight.
Russian Ministry of defense claimed 41 UAVs were shot down Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Belgorod regions and over occupied Crimea
Overnight, Russia again launched a missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
1/3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
31/48 Shahed drones
Another 14 Shahed drones were taken down by electronic warfare. Three more drones returned to Belarus.
At least 2 ballistic missiles were launched at Dnipro city
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Leonidivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Russian claims of capturing villages and small towns in the Donbas region further indicate the effort to move forward in the region. They have committed a lot of people and material. When one looks on the map, the territory taken is very small and following Russian attack doctrine applied to Ukraine, there really isn’t much of anything left to call a village. Russian personnel lose continue to be as much as 40-50% higher than this spring. So they are clawing away terrain, but because of the losses they have nothing to exploit the success with.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF on high alert for what is believed to be an impending attack by Iran.
- US envoy Hochstein appears to have gummed up ceasefire efforts for Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas source: There will be no progress in negotiations on a deal - before the US elections
U.S. asked Lebanon to declare unilateral ceasefire with Israel in an effort to help along talks for a final resolution to the war, two sources to Reuters It was communicated by Amos Hochstein to Lebanese PM Najib Mikati and aimed to give Beirut some initiative.
NOTE - Israel is at war with Hezbollah, not Lebanon. Hochstein is a joke.
Following today’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Biden’s Envoys on Middle Eastern Affairs, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk; the Chance of apeaceful settlement in Lebanon is said to have drastically decreased. Hochstein, who was initially meant to travel to Beirut after the meeting, will instead return to the United States. (NOTE - Apparently he did go to Beirut - see comment above)
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1852038805760438326?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Sky News in Arabic: There is less optimism about reaching a ceasefire deal in Lebanon in the coming days after Biden envoy Amos Hochstein’s visit to Israel.
Israeli army: Air force attacked 150 targets in Gaza and Lebanon in the past 24 hours
Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel killed seven people in agricultural fields near Metula and Haifa Thursday, marking what appeared to be the deadliest day in months for civilians inside Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas et al continues to be reduced in N Gaza. More reports of mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated personnel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck a series of Hezbollah sites in Beirut and in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, the Israeli army says. In the Lebanese capital, weapon manufacturing plants, command centers, and other infrastructure were struck, according to the military
Fighting is still fierce for the towns of Khiyam, Yaroun and Maroun al-Ras, southern Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
UNRWA: Israeli bulldozers damaged our office in Nour Shams camp in the West Bank. Israel denies the claim.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Rumors that Iranian backed militias in Iraq will be the source of the next major attack on Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Leave it to biden to screw up the move for a potential cease fire in Lebanon. Hochstein most likely wanted to impose additional restrictions to Israel’s part of the deal which would negate the disarmament of Hezbollah and withdrawal north of the Litiani River.
Israel continues to pummel Hezbollah ammo dumps and production plants, command and control and other key targets in and around Beirut, Tyre and Baalbek. All the while providing CAS to the ground ops in S Lebanon. Hezbollah looks to be finally trying to make a stand in Khiyam, Yaroun and Maroun al-Ras. They likely have considerable weapons and munitions in underground storage (as been encountered by IDF in other border villages), but they are essentially fighting on their own, isolated from the support they have planned on. Their time is running out.
I’ve commented on the rumors that Iran will use Iraq to stage its next strike against Israel under Iran below. Looks like a misdirect. Any such effort under the watchful eyes of Israeli (and to some degree US) intelligence, would be grounds for a preemptive strike on these forces.
The fact that the IDF is on heightened alert does indicate that intelligence is pointing to an imminent attack by Iran - possibly before the US election - as threatened. The western mind can only consider this to be foolishness, but the arab mind Iran has to respond. Israel hit them hard enough to embarrass them and show the rest of the arab world their weakness.
Netanyahu knows that and may well be counting on it since he is aware of the western worlds view of things as well and in particular, the US elections. Any Iranian attack between now and the elections will allow Israel to absolutely pummel Iran in a much freer manner - and that will be very bad news for Iran. FAFO on steroids.
Israel’s announced retaliatory strike still looks to be held off until after the US election. It may also be balanced against a possible preemptive strike on Iran. We’ll have to wait and see.
Finally, Gaza is becoming more and more subdued - especially in the north. This is the kind of operation that was foreseen following the fall of the Philadelphi corridor and Rafah this summer. The plight of the hostages tends to be buried under other aspects of the overall conflict and I am rather pessimistic that they are still alive at this stage. The only hope that at least some are still alive is that Hamas is still trying to use them as leverage in any ceasefire agreement.
Iran –
A report in the New York Times: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directed Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to prepare for an attack on Israel. It was also reported that Khamenei made the decision to respond after reviewing a detailed military report on the extent of the damage caused by the Israeli attack.
***
Iran plans to attack Israel from Iraqi territory within days, say 2 Israeli sources; assault will involve hundreds of missiles & drones, Walla News reports; Iran hopes to shield itself from direct Israeli retaliation by launching the strike from Iraq, report says.
It appears Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces is away at the moment. His plane headed west across the Mediterranean
Falih Al-Fayyadh, the Chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Main Iranian-Backed Paramilitary Forces in Iraq, was spotted today in Tehran with the Commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Brigadier General Esmail Qaani
OBSERVATION - I am skeptical about Iran launching its attack via proxies from Iraq. Though sneaky in that it could provide plausible deniability to the regime, it is questionable that the Iranian backed militias have the trained personnel as well as the numbers of rockets, launch vehicles/platforms and storage to conduct such an attack on short notice. Same with drones, though these militias have fired several daily, a mass launch would be hard pressed to accomplish IMHO. It is more likely that these Iranian mllitias will join with supporting fire - principally drones - to help overwhelm the Israeli defense systems.