Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Control the food, control the people Been around a long time
Control the food, control the people Been around a long time
Not a lot of new tricks from Commie thugs when the old tricks work so well. Still, it’s important to point them out - - did you know the Chinese are also buying our farmland?
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
The FBI arrested an Afghan man who it says was influenced by the Islamic State to plan an Election Day attack that would have targeted large crowds in the US, AP reported Tuesday.
Agents arrested Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, after an investigation that discovered the man had been stockpiling automatic weapons and had been in the process of liquidating his family’s assets. After his arrest he confessed to investigators that he was planning an attack that would hit large crowds. Tawhedi disclosed he has a juvenile co-conspirator and that they both expected to die as Islamic martyrs. He had bought a one-way ticket for his wife and child to travel back to Afghanistan. Tawhedi, who entered the United States in 2021 on a special immigrant visa, was charged with conspiring and attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State group.
OBSERVATION - How many more like him are out there? Literally hundreds of thousands.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More than two dozen Navy ships — including three that are currently in service — received faulty welds at the Huntington Ingalls Industries shipyard in Newport News, Virginia, the service’s top civilian leader told lawmakers last week.
In a letter to Congress dated Oct. 3, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said that poor welds were found on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington as well as the attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover and USS New Jersey. In addition, the welding issues were identified on 23 more ships — a mix of new construction, ships in maintenance and aircraft carriers undergoing refueling.
OBSERVATION - this is growing to be a scandal of great concern. Shows a gross lack of QA/QC by both the contractor as well as the Navy. I hope the contractor maintained records on who worked on what weld areas so the culprit(s) can be arrested - but don’t hold your breath.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Never thought I’d see democrats rallying porn stars to support their candidate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
CBS edited out Kamala’s incoherent response from a “60 Minutes” interview and replaced it with what now appears to be a response to an entirely different question
These are the same people railing about misinformation. Who needs AI when CBS will creatively edit an interview in this manner.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration said it will not renew two-year permits for immigrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua who entered the U.S. through immigration parole flights. A Biden official familiar with the program said it is likely only a small number of the 30,000 entering the U.S. each month are at risk of losing their immigration parole status.
OBSERVATION - I don’t trust their numbers, and neither should you.
Russia -
Russia demands Ukraine withdraw its troops from four partially occupied regions in Ukraine and abandon plans to join NATO, said FM Lavrov in an interview with Newsweek. He outlined conditions including Ukraine’s demilitarization, neutrality, and the recognition of territorial changes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 22 Shahed-type drones overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Action by Russia continue, but no significant changes noted. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces retaking some towns in the Kursk region.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing Ukraine defenses south of the town.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Heavy fighting continues around Chasiv Yar.
Crimean front —
Another fuel reservoir exploded at the oil depot in Feodosiya, fire has been uncontrollable since Ukraine drone strikes from a few days ago.
Russian Territory –
Explosions at a GRAU military arsenal in Karachev of Bryansk region reported overnight.
Outlook —
The daily slog along the Donbas front continues with Russia continuing to claw out small, localized gains at heavy losses.
Russian missile blitz still over due.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania has fortified another bridge over the Nemunas River on the route from the Kaliningrad. Fortifications are progressing as planned, with some bridges set to be demolished.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- IAF targeted Hezbollah and possibly Iranian leadership in Damascus strike.
- Galant’s trip to the US has been postponed/cancelled by Netanyahu.
- US complaining of being left in the dark over Israeli plans and timing.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli Air Force struck over 230 targets over the past day, in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the targets included 185 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, and some 45 Hamas sites in Gaza, including sites where cells of operatives were cells of operatives were gathered, observation posts, rocket launchers, and weapon depots. The IDF says troops continue to battle Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon, and during the past day several gunmen were killed in close-quarters combat and in airstrikes.
***
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to approve Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s trip to Washington planned for tonight until a he gets a phone call with President Biden and until the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to a source with knowledge of the details
***
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to hold a critical phone call on Wednesday morning with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Israel’s plans to strike Iran in retaliation for its ballistic missile attack on Israel last week, three US officials told Axios on Tuesday.
This conversation would mark the first contact between Biden and Netanyahu in two months.
On Tuesday night, Netanyahu met for hours with senior ministers and the heads of Israel’s military and intelligence agencies to decide the scope and timing of their planned strikes on Iran, two Israeli officials told Axios.
These officials indicated that Israel’s response will be substantial, likely involving a mix of air strikes on military targets in Iran as well as covert operations. Israel has also considered strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, a move Biden has signaled he would oppose.
A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision is made, Netanyahu would brief Biden.
“We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” a US official told Axios.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/397329
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City, on October 8 after launching a new operation there to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts.
The IDF Air Force also struck 70 unspecified targets in the Gaza Strip on October 8.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah targets in S Beirut, multiple ammo storage facilities hit.
IDF ground forces continue to press into S Lebanon.
Hezbollah fired about 20 rockets at Kiryat Shmona this morning. Another Iron Dome glitch allowed some rockets to penetrate resulting in several deaths
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Al Hadath: An official in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 was targeted in an airstrike in the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, Syria. Unit 4400 is responsible for transferring weapons from Iran and its proxies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian embassy in Damascus denies the presence of Iranians in the building targeted by the Israeli raid in the Mazzeh neighborhood
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed militias have targeted the Conoco military base in eastern Deir ez-Zur сountryside
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel maintains the momentum and initiative in the fight against both Hamas and Hezbollah. What appears to be slow progress in Lebanon is due to the need to deal with heavily fortified Hezbollah positions set up in border towns. Once this defensive line has been breached, movement should go faster.
Amir Tsefarti makes the following observation on the potential financial hit to Hezbollah forces and supporters on his Telegraph channel -
“According to the sources in Lebanon, the one-ton penetrating bombs thrown at Hezbollah’s underground headquarters caused heavy damage to the organization’s vaults full of dollars. In Lebanon, there are different estimates regarding the amounts that Hezbollah lost, although of course there is no exact figure.
“This is bad news for the thousands of fighters, employees, managers and loyalists in the organization’s institutions, who, along with the thousands of families of the dead, wounded and disabled, are waiting for monthly salaries and assistance from it. In addition to the budgets allocated to dozens of health, education, social and media institutions affiliated with it. Even if part of the treasury [of the organization] or all of it has survived until now, questions arise regarding Hezbollah’s ability to continue to guarantee its financial obligations, due to the costs of displacement and war, especially if the campaign is prolonged or expanded,” one of the sources was quoted as saying”
Cash payments become hard to pay if your cash is all burned up and your line of credit isn’t looking good.
Some indicators/rumors now that Israel is going to wait until after Yom Kippur to strike at Iran. At this date, delay of a few more days to get the holy day behind it may ease a lot of logistical and social aspects of the attack. This will be Israels largest attack against Iran ever.
Big rumblings coming out of DC and the pentagon over the OPSEC of Israel towards US officials. One unconfirmed report was how dumbfounded the govt was when informed of the strike that took out Nassaralla. Israel rightly so doesn’t trust the US govt with its warplans. Too many leaks in the past and too many sympathetic, pro-islamic radical elements therein. Just how much Netanyahu will reveal to biden if their phone call happens is speculation, but I suspect no significant information will be given to biden.
The Gallant trip at the very least was an effort by the US to split him from Netanyahu’s warplans and decision making. The goal being forcing Israel to conform to US desires in the region over fears of an escalating regional conflict. “We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” from above. Of course that US official isn’t running to bomb shelters nearly every day either.
This is war- either go big or go home. US deterrence has devolved into a namby pamby game of insignificant strikes that do very little (Rush would say - “Symbolism over substance”) Arab culture only respect strength, something we’ve failed to realize going as far back as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. WW2 wasn’t won on this doctrine of ‘proportionality” and fear of escalating the war - the allies bombed the living daylights out of Germany and Japan, forcing their surrender.
Netanyahu’s forcing biden to respond will put the US on record. I doubt that he is going to leave honey badger mode for these faux concerns by the US. What he will say is yet to be seen, but if trends continue, it will be sharp and too the point. The US has lost regional credibility in efforts against Iran due to the billions of dollars of ‘raised’ (not lifted - snark) sanctions, allowing billions to flow into the country. An Israeli strike may also just expose that scam.
So my look at the tea leaves has the Iranian strike shifting to after Yom Kippur (poss as early as Oct 13). I expect that Israel will stick to massive targeting of oil sites as well as the hidy holes of the mullahs, in addition to key military sites. There is a fair possibility that Israel may avoid direct attacks on nuclear sites. I’d say if they do, that they target the ADA units surrounding those sites. Russia’s inventory of S300/S400/S500 is tremendously stretched due to the Ukraine war and Iran will be hard pressed to replace any losses. This would make those nuke facilities even more vulnerable to any necessary follow on stakes.
Iran –
(ISW). US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on October 7 that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in around a week.
Burns also stated that the US has observed no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered the regime to build a nuclear weapon.
Burns added that the United States and its partners should be able to detect “relatively early on” if Iran begins building a nuclear weapon.
OBSERVATION - The potential to rapidly produce the 90%+ enriched uranium necessary to fuel a nuclear bomb has been out there for quite a while. It is all the other components necessary to generate a fission reaction that are critical.
AFA US intelligence claims to be able to detect the construction of a nuclear weapon “early on” is what I am very skeptical about.
Big question is just how much and type of assistance has Iran received from N Korea and Russia.
Misc of Note –
(FO) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the structure of Hurricane Milton changed significantly overnight, and Hurricane Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
The NHC said Hurricane Milton is expected to grow in size as it approaches Florida, and “this is an extremely life-threatening situation.”
“As bad as Helene was, it will not really come close to the amount of spending you will see with this storm” if Hurricane Milton makes landfall in the Tampa, FL metro area, former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Craig Fugate said.
OBSERVATION - Another old prepper adage goes ‘the time for prepping is down when the disaster is upon you’ It will be literally months before Florida is back in business after these two hurricane strikes.
But Americans across the country are blissfully ignorant of dangers posed by nature on their areas. Please, do a study of your home areas - discern if you face flooding, fire, other storm, earthquake etc. dangers and take steps to prepare NOW. Nature gives no mulligans.
Thanks Godzilla
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Inflation hit a fresh three-year low in September as another drop in gasoline prices offset a rise in used car and auto insurance costs but price gains slowed less than expected and a gauge of underlying price increases picked up.
Overall consumer prices increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.5% in August, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a wide-ranging gauge of goods and services costs. That’s the smallest increase since February 2021 and the sixth straight pullback, leaving inflation modestly above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists polled by Bloomberg, though, expected a drop to 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, costs edged up 0.2%, in line with the previous month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched more closely by the Fed, increased 0.3%, similar to August. That nudged up yearly core inflation to 3.3% from 3.2% the prior month. Forecasters expected the core measure to hold steady.
OBSERVATIONS - Analysts think these are good numbers, but reality is far from these numbers. Gasoline has dropped in price, but that is largely due to the suppression of economic activity. And yes - food is left out again - a key component that directly hits the pocket book - is left out.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Army North has mobilized active-duty Title 10 troops and equipment to assist with Hurricane Milton’s response and recovery efforts at FEMA’s request. The response force, consisting of 30 high-wheeled vehicles, 100 active duty troops, and several medium-lift helicopters, will operate out of Fort Moore, Georgia, in support of the affected areas.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
60 minutres continues to get hammered over its extensively edited (to the extent that is is falsified the interview) segment with harris.
China –
(FO) Taiwan’s government is warning that China will launch new drills near Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech on Thursday. Lai claimed in his speech that he would “uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs classified the speech as “deliberately sever[ing] the historical ties between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.”
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s Army has cut off roads and railways to South Korea and is fortifying its side of the border with barriers and landmines. The General Staff of the Korean People’s Army released a statement claiming that the measures were a response to South Korean war exercises and visits by U.S. strategic nuclear assets in the region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Zelensky reportedly is looking closer at some sort of ceasefire in response to the prospects that Trump will be elected president and support for the continuation of the fighting curtailed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attacks overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti radar missile
0/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles
41/62 Shahed drones
5 person killed, 9 wounded as result of Russian ballistic missile strike at Panama-flagged Container Ship, IMO 9216729 SHUI SPIRIT in Odesa region
(ISW) Unconfirmed but likely reports that Russian military command has ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions this fall constrain mechanized maneuver.
Poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanized and infantry maneuver, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
Russian assaults along the long Donbas front appear to have increased but do not show any increase in the use of armor, except to attempt to quickly shuttle troops to drop off sites for their assaults.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian Defense forces claimed an attack at the storage base of Shahed-type drones in Oktyabrskiy village of Krasnodar Krai(Kuban). Around 400 drones were reportedly stored there.
Ukrainian Navy R-360 Neptune cruise missiles slammed into a Russian storage facility outside of Yeysk, reportedly housing hundreds of Shahed-136 attack drones. Secondary explosions and fire reportedly continue to consume the complex.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 7 that it successfully disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Alexandrit-class (Project 12700) Alexander Obukhov minesweeper while it was docked in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast.
Around 1,300 people were evacuated in Russia after Ukrainian drones hit the “Khanskaya” military airfield in Adygea overnight. A fuel and lubricant storage facility was likely destroyed, says CPD head Kovalenko.
Outlook —
Russia continues to press its attacks, likely in response to gaining a much tactical positioning as possible prior to the Ukraine fall/winter. The ISW assessment may have some validity except that the armor necessary for large scale assaults have largely been depleted by the prolonged offensive. Secondly, in recent battalion sized attack, the Russian forces have displayed horrible tactical maneuvering, generally resulting in their armored forces being eaten up by drones and follow-on artillery.
Ukraine has been having some good luck in its deep drone war. The R-360 Neptune cruise missiles is a weapon to watch in the future, having been modified to serve land targets as well as naval ones.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu and biden spoke yesterday
- Israel security council is meeting to decide on the next step in dealing with Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US officials say that Israel refuses to reveal to the US the plan to attack Iran.
Yesterday, Netanyahu - Biden spoke for the first time in about 2 months.
Biden demanded Netanyahu not to attack the nuclear or oil facilities in Iran and claimed that the maneuver in Lebanon should be ended “as soon as possible” and strive for an agreement.
Netanyahu stood firm and replied that this is a historic opportunity that should not be missed. With regard to Lebanon, he replied that we have signed 1701 agreements and the only agreement that comes into consideration will be a sustainable agreement after Hezbollah will be severely beaten and will not be able to threaten the residents of the north and the State of Israel.
The Israeli security cabinet will meet today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack.
While both Hezbollah and Hamas still have some rockets left, current estimations suggest that they may have as few as around 10% of what they had when the war began a year ago.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is currently destroying the last Hamas strongholds in northern Gaza and has imposed a complete blockade on the Jebalia camp, where a few thousand terrorists remain. About 200,000 civilians have been ordered to evacuate south along a designated route toward the humanitarian area west of Khan Yunis. Once northern Gaza is fully cleared, the IDF will take over the responsibility of distributing humanitarian aid to the population. This will mark the end of Hamas’s civilian rule.
Sinwar apparently is still alive and has been in contact with Qatar supporters seeing some sort of amnesty in exchange for the hostages. Rumors are that is fortune stored in Qatar may be confiscated and used to eventually help rebuild Gaza, is another motivator.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continues to retreat from the front lines, leaving behind hundreds of millions worth of weapons and infrastructure. The IDF continues to strike deep into Beirut and the Beqaa Valley as well.
Hezbollah continues to launch roughly 12-18 rocket attacks per day with variable numbers of rocket. Occasionally they manage to put several dozen rockets in the air at the same time during one of these barrages. Generally total numbers of rockets launched daily is roughly 200 - 300 range.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian opposition sources report that the IDF attacked several times tonight in Syrian territory:
1. Around one hour after midnight, a center was attacked in the industrial area of Hasia’ in Homs , where “aid trucks” from Iraq destined to enter Lebanon arrive. Reported 4 injured in the attack.
(This is not the first time the IDF has attacked this industrial area in recent weeks).
2. A Syrian army post in the Hama area.
3. Weapons and ammunition warehouse of the Shia militias in Tel Mana in southern Syria .
6 Lebanese soldiers injured in Israeli raids near army checkpoint in Hawsh al-Sayyid border area with Syria
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
In Gaza, it looks like Hama’s days are numbered in the north. Suckered into thinking they could reassemble to challenge IAF, they are now encircled and facing destruction. As noted in other posts, Israel is contemplating turning N Gaza into a military zone to prevent Hamas or any other element from taking control and placing rockets that can endanger central and southern Israel again.
Hezbollah continue to pull back, avoiding decisive engagements with IAF. In doing so they are leaving substantial stockpiles of weapons and munitions behind. I am not sure if their fall back positions are equally supplied. Hezbollah was poised to fight like 2006 with a more forward defense and draw the IDF into kill zones. Israel has upended that whole plan with its current operations.
Battalion and lower leadership of Hezbollah in the south has been in places good, but the lack of higher level support is resulting in heavy losses of their officer corps as they have to be forward more to direct the defensive measures.
Israel response to Iran’s missile attack has indicators that it will be launched post Yom Kippur. A couple key markers was what I’ll call the showdown with biden and the discussion of (or lack thereof) the Israel target sets and timing. biden and the pentagon have been desiring to place their controls on the Israeli options and actions. While Israel has listened to these bleats, perhaps getting some ideas to incorporate into their plans, it appear that Netanyahu is moving forward with Israeli plans, not US.
Washington lost Israeli confidence early on in the war, by leaking plans and operational details. Lost even more when biden ordered a slowdown in the delivery of bombs and other munitions in order to force Israel into following its dictates in Gaza.
OPSEC for Israel on a matter of such key importance of a retaliatory strike against Iran is primary, and they need to maintain the silence.
Now the second indicator is that the Israeli security cabinet is meeting today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack. Netanyahu can put forth the plan, with any acceptable US requests, for final approval. With Yom Kippur two days off now, this will given the general staff time to dot the ‘i’ and cross the ’t’ of current plans and make final logistical preparations.
Target set is still speculative except that Israel is coming around again to specifically state that Iran’s nuclear sector is back on the menu. I think that Israel may attempt to take out Iranian leadership - a bold move that would be characteristic of the fight so far. Hitting and Beverly damaging Iran’s oil industry is a low hanging fruit that can easily be accomplished.
For the near future, Hamas faces further extinction in Gaza. Hezbollah strategic storage facilities in and around Beirut will be hammered as well as aggressive interdiction of resupply attempts via Syria. Ground forces continue to move northward. And final preparations for the Iranian strike.
Misc of Note –
See extensive FR postings on hurricane activity, response and damages.
I am ashamed of the unmitigated arrogance of the politicians in government who think they have the authority to demand that people answer to them and comply with their demands.
The US has ZERO authority over Israel and its business and Israel, at this point, owes the US NOTHING in intelligence that will be shared with the enemy.
Thank God Netanyahu is standing strong against all the pressure being put on him by those who are only going to betray him and Israel.
Netanyahu is in honey badger mode. This is the one opportunity Israel will have to address these threats. The world powers don’t want that.
And he’s doing it quite well, IMO.
Netanyahu is easily the most intelligent leader in the world.
Thanks Godzilla
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
it turns out the ISIS fan who threatened to carry out a terrorist attack on Election Day had been a CIA asset.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The weekly count of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped to its highest level in more than a year, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) reported Thursday.
For the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 225,000, according to the latest DOL report:
“This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023 when it was 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,250.”
Last week’s initial jobless claims came in about thirty thousand higher than analysts had expected.
The September report is the latest sign that the job market is weakening, as the Associated Press noted Thursday:
“The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 42,000 to about 1.86 million for the week of Sept. 28, the most since late July.
“In August, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March this year than were originally reported. The revised total was also considered evidence that the job market has been slowing steadily, compelling the Fed to start cutting interest rates.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/jobless-claims-jump-highest-level-more-year
OBSERVATION - This is a contra indicator showing that the economy is not as rosy as the regime and its number skewing minions like to show. These numbers are what the public actually ‘feel’ and impress how well or poor the economy is going. Job market declines are opposite what a robust economy would produce.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Vice President Kamala Harris said Tuesday that she can’t think of a single thing she would’ve done differently the past three and a half years if she’d been president instead of Joe Biden - and this isn’t the first time.
“If anything, would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?” Co-host Sunny Hostin asked during Harris’ appearance on “The View.”
“There is not a thing that comes to mind. And I’ve been part of most of the decisions that have had impact,” V.P. Harris replied, claiming partial credit for President Biden’s choices.
OBSERVATION - Even in front of a friendly crowd, harris manages to screw it all up. Going from fixing everything wrong now to openly acknowledging that she had a hand in creating the mess in the first place.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris was caught using two teleprompters during her “Town Hall” at Univision.
OBSERVATION - Her recent blitz of ‘interviews’ to shrug off the accusation of hiding from questions has backfired in a major way.
Illegal Immigration –
Local officials in Logansport, Indiana are sounding the alarm on the huge influx of migrants causing a strain on the local school systems.
Hundreds of migrant minors are being enrolled in the local schools. The Haitian student population alone has increased 1378% since 2021.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
An unspecified senior US defense official stated on October 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 29 of 66 Shahed-type strike drones over Ukraine overnight, 31 lost, 2 returned to Russia, 4 is still flying.
NOTE - They’ve been reporting “lost” drones for a little while now. Not sure of how they are defining that.
Russian ballistic missile struck in Odesa region last evening.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Ostrivske village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Crimean front —
Another fuel reservoir exploded at burning oil depot in Feodosiya, occupied Crimea. This facility has been burning for over 5 days now.
Outlook —
Noticed reported Russian casualties have gone down from their highs from over the past couple months. This would suggest Russian activity has decreased, rather than increased as suggested in previous post. Too early to say if the seasonal weather change is the cause or Russian just running out of troops and supplies. As noted under Russia above, it is estimated that Russia has lost 600,000 in less than the three yeas of this war. One can extend that to equivalent losses of equipment as well. These losses have put a lot of pressure to maintain recruitment levels which have impacted their economy by removing workers from many sectors. Territory gained in Ukraine has come at a great cost to Russia.
Monitoring for potential changes in the ground action.
Still expecting Russian major missile barrage.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Continued ground operations is S Lebanon
- Large airstrikes near Khan Yunis.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Some of the largest airstrikes in a while, targeting areas east of Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF breached sections of Lebanon border fence at unexpected spots to surprise Hezbollah, enabling forces to directly enter Lebanese villages. Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in area pushed further away from border, can no longer target Israel with direct fire.
Unconfirmed reports that in another strike in Beirut, Israel has eliminated Mohammad Raad - a Lebanese politician of the Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militia Hezbollah, who serves as member of parliament.
Hezbollah rockets target the Haifa area, with no significant affect.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raid targets Al-Qasr town crossing in Homs countryside near Lebanese border
Israeli raid on Matraba area on Lebanese-Syrian border in Bekaa Valley, eastern Lebanon
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Kataib Hezbollah (KH) Commander Abu Ali Al-Askari issued a direct threat against the United States. KH is a U.S.-designated anti-American Shiite militia operating in Iraq with ancillary operations in Syria.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Spanish PM: International community must stop arms exports to Israel
Lebanon’s representative to the Security Council: We support the US-French initiative for a 21-day ceasefire
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Yom Kippur is tomorrow, so an Israeli strike on Iran could occur as soon as the weekend. Rhetoric from Netanyahu, as well as govt and military sources indicate that his discussions with biden did little to change his mind on what targets to hit. If they did alter his plans, he is not letting on to that, nor does it look like there are any leaks from DC on that as well.
Iran has issued several warnings to Gulf nations that they will retaliated against them should there be any appearance of support to Israel. This is a very valid threat as most of the Gulf nations are opposed to Iran on religious grounds, as well as political. If Iran carried out any of the threats, the region would break into a war who’s first target will be the oil industry in the gulf. This would cause prices to skyrocket as there would be global shortages. Saudi Arabia in particular has been gradually preparing its forces in the event of a conflict with Iran and would likely be the largest target by Iran.
Analysis of Israeli operations in S Lebanon indicate that Israel learned its lessons from the 2006 war, utilizing maneuver and surprise to negate the ATGM traps Hezbollah used successfully. Since Oct 7, Hezbollah has fired ATGMs into Israel, targeting a wide range of objectives. This initial push by Israel has moved the potential firing locations both out of range as well as out of line of sight for those ATGMs.
In Gaza, Israel continues to liquidate remnants of Hamas and its allies in N Gaza. Action hasn’t been limited to that area alone, as air/artillery strikes continue throughout the strip.
Near term - Israeli counter strike on Iran, probably before the end of the weekend.
Iran –
There is a soap opera of sorts surrounding Esmail Qaani, Head of Iran’s Quds Forces, who reportedly had a heart attack while being interrogated for the suspicion of being an Israeli agent. He had been located with Hashem Saffiedine, Nasrallah’s potential successor, when Israel attacked the bunker he was in. Qaani was reportedly taken into custody by the IRGC and was undergoing interrogation.
Other unconfirmed reports are that the Iranian agent that was interrogating him at the time has now been arrested as possibly being a member of the Mossad as well. The level of panic is deep within Iran’s ruling class.
***
Again, Iran threatened Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar not to allow Israel to attack Iran through their territory or airspace
Misc of Note –
The run-up to the election is a potentially very hazardous period for stuff to go sideways very fast. But there is another time frame that is potentially a lot more dangerous. That is the period between the election day and inauguration.
A trump win may well trigger a desperate attempt by the regime to go all out and prevent the inauguration. This ranges from efforts not to certify the election, to an imposition of a “national emergency” of some sort - potentially triggered by rioting illegals - to declare martial law. Another effort could be an attempt to arrest and jail trump - in some attempt to void the results of the election. And Just as after 2016, the democrats will unleash Antifa et al to cause violence and destruction.
I do not underestimate the potential desperation of the democrats at the prospect of losing power in DC.
Similar, but slightly different dynamics in the event of a harris win, especially if there are potential cheating involved. I can expect the govt to move to arrest republicans and leaders of potential opposition groups - similar to third world and communist countries. Any opposition could face brutal crackdowns which could cause the fissure to open wide between red and blue.
Even the above is very simple - the matrix is maxed out as far as the chaos that could ensue post election. We have to spiritually, mentally and physically prepare for the worst and pray for the best.
Thanks Godzilla
Things have come up and i’m able to get a post out today. I’ll try to catch up some tomorrow ands monday.. Have a safe weekend
We’re here when you’re ready - take care of things for now. Get back to us when you can.
Thank You for every post. Your posts are extremely informative.
Take a deep breath today, I suspect this next week could be very intense in many ways. Yom Kippur is over and Israel has no more distractions delaying its attack on Iran. The political cycle is spinning up into a Cat 4 round of mayhem, half truths and bald faced lies.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Several Democrats have suggested they could challenge certification of a victory by former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election.
House Oversight Committee ranking member and former Jan. 6 committee member Jamie Raskin said he would accept the decision if Trump “won a free, fair and honest election”; however, he “definitely” doesn’t assume that Trump would use free, fair, and honest means to secure a victory.
“[He] is doing whatever he can to try to interfere with the process, whether we’re talking about manipulating Electoral College counts in Nebraska or manipulating the vote count in Georgia or imposing other kinds of impediments,” Raskin told Axios.
Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., a senior chief deputy whip who voted to object to George W. Bush’s electors in 2005, said a Trump win would need to be examined.
“I don’t know what kind of shenanigans he is planning,” she said, Axios reported. “We would have to, in any election ... make sure that all the rules have been followed.”
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/democrats-house-donald-trump/2024/10/11/id/1183692/
OBSERVATION - Planning on doing what they charged the republicans of doing. This is isn’t the first time for these two in particular to engage in these games. However, this time around democrat desperation to hold onto power may result in greater challenges this year. As always, such actions could spinoff into all kinds of leftist actions and push back.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
US supplying alternative aircraft for trump to use to obscure his travels from potential terror threats to shoot down the plane he is flying in.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See Israel - potential deployment of THAAD assets to Israel to defend key sites from possible Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
More dark knowledge that medical response to wuhan was full of deliberate medical malpractice. —
A military whistleblower released a series of documents revealing 601 deaths of military service members and a high rate of serious adverse events in clinical trials involving remdesivir, an antiviral commonly administered to COVID-19 patients during the pandemic.
According to “The Remdesivir Papers,” some clinical trials were improperly run. In the case of at least one study, results were never made public. The whistleblower also alleged a widespread lack of informed consent for trial participants.
“Data derived from the Department of Defense [DOD] Joint Trauma System … by a military whistleblower offers a stark contrast to results of multiple clinical trials involving the liberal usage of remdesivir in military treatment facilities and other civilian facilities, as well as its potential contribution to, at minimum, hundreds of untimely deaths,” the documents state.
Yet according to the documents, the military began “liberally” administering remdesivir to service members who were suspected of having COVID-19 — months before the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the drug.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/remdesivir-papers-drug-military-members-601-deaths/
OBSERVATION - The vast numbers of ‘covid’ deaths were associated to the use of ventilators and remdesivir, along with other chemicals, that accelerated the body’s shut down and eventual death. It was almost a virtual death sentence. Now the data and facts are coming out. Unfortunately, the criminals who fought to hid this data will never see judgement in this life.
AND THERE IS MORE -
A study involving 1.7 million children in England aged between 5 and 15 years old has found that myocarditis and pericarditis only developed in children who had received Pfizer’s covid injections. Not a single unvaccinated child in the group suffered from these heart conditions.
A study was published in May 2024 by the Bennet Institute for Applied Data Science, a multidisciplinary team based at the University of Oxford. It was an observational study to assess the safety and effectiveness of the first and second doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s (BNT162b2) covid injection in children and adolescents in England. The injection was offered to this age group from September 2021 as part of the Government’s national covid injection campaign.
The study used the OpenSAFELY-TPP database and included adolescents aged 12-15 years and children aged 5-11 years, comparing unvaccinated and single-vaccinated children with those receiving a second dose.
It compared data for at least 1,678,668 children and adolescents comprising:
820,926 unvaccinated adolescents.
441,858 adolescents who had received a first dose.
283,422 unvaccinated children.
132,462 children who had received a first dose
There is no indication of how many adolescents and children who had received a second dose were included in the study.
The study used the incidence rate ratio (“IRR”), separately for children and adolescents, to compare unvaccinated outcomes to vaccinated outcomes and the first does (single-vaccinated) to those who had two doses of Pfizer’s “vaccine.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/10/12/myocarditis-and-pericarditis-only-in-covid-vaccinated/
OBSERVATION - Even with these results clearly evident, the medical ‘authorities’ are still pushing the jab onto America’s children. One aspect is money for pharma, the second and more sinister, is the deliberate actions to cull the population.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
\Walz displayed his ineptness in loading ‘his’ shotgun in a video going viral this weekend. Made Elmer Fudd look accomplished.
Harris earlier sorta bragged about owning a Glock.
***
I hold caution towards polls and hold greater caution towards reports of campaigns “collapsing” a this stage of a campaign. Both sides vigorously spin to try to project confidence in their candidate as well as try to demoralize their opponent’s support base. This effort is also clouded up with shifting polls cited in their support.
However, taking components together, there are indicators and one of the biggest is 0bama and Clinton hitting the circuit. 0bama sucks the oxygen out of the room as he focuses everything on himself. This time, his first outing managed to offend the black community - essentially telling them to get back on the plantation. He has strayed far from being attached to the black society - a Martha’s Vineyard democrat who is now clueless to the issues affecting blacks today.
Democrat concern is also displayed in harris’ increase in interviews - knowing that her hiding wasn’t helping. Those interviews continue to be dumpster fires - one of the latest is the Univision ‘town hall’ where now it has been shown that the audience was not undecided, but deliberately packed with supporters. Add to it the use of teleprompters - indicating pre arranged ‘questions’, and it just goes down hill from there.
Finally, the DNC has launched “its first-ever” attack ads against Jill Stein. What is their internal polling showing?
No I’m not fully accepting the talk that the democrats are hitting the panic button, but I see trends. Nor am I going to be overconfident of a Trump win. Still too many days yet to the election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden says that Americans who have criticized his hurricane response will “pay a price.”
OBSERVATION - Again, out there with the threats against those who exercise there rights to free speech.
Illegal Immigration –
On Friday, local media outlet Action News revealed that federal investigators had been investigating staffing firm Prosperity Services, which supplies cheap migrant labor to Fourth Street Foods in Charleroi.
According to Action News, Fourth Street “employs 700 immigrants from 41 countries, many of them Haitians.” The migrants work on conveyor lines in massive ice boxes to slap breakfast bowls and sandwiches together under various private-label brands for big box retailers.
Here’s the bombshell from the media outlet published Friday evening:
Many of Fourth Street’s workers are actually employed by a contractor, Prosperity Services. Prosperity also transports workers in vans, which can be seen throughout Charleroi.
In court records, federal investigators said Prosperity “knowingly paid undocumented non-citizen employees with cash” and “transported and housed undocumented non-citizens for employment purposes.”
Earlier this year, the feds seized nearly $1 million in cash from Prosperity and two men affiliated with the company, including Andy Ha, the company president.
In another report -
Many of these workers are not directly employed by Fourth Street Foods. Instead, according to Scott, they are hired through staffing agencies, which pay workers about $12 an hour for entry-level food-processing roles and bill Fourth Street Foods over $16 per hour to cover their costs, including transportation and overhead. (The average wage for an entry-level food processor in Washington County was $16.42 per hour in 2023.)
https://thelibertydaily.com/feds-find-million-cash-while-investigating-mysterious-staffing/
OBSERVATION - Another example of the great job replacement, that is beginning to smell more like modern slavery.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Summary:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/2 Kh-59 cruise missiles
31/68 Shahed drones shot down
36/68 Shahed drones taken out due to electronic warfare
Russian assaults have ramped up again across the eastern fronts.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian has launched fresh assaults in the western portion of the Kursk Salient and reports indicate that they are forcing Ukraine forces back.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Mykhailivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
Over the past couple days, Russia has increased the intensity of its assaults on the Donbas region fronts as well as Kursk. This has forced Ukraine back in some sectors. The increased attention in the Kursk region reflects the Russian desire to eliminate the salient so that forces can once again be reassigned to the Donbas region. Attacks against the western margin of the Kursk salient are lead by VDV forces - those that Russia desperately wants for Donbas exploitation.
As noted before, the second reason for the recent Russian push is the incoming wet season that will hinder further offensive operations. This uptick in Russian attacks are reflected in higher reported personnel losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel deploys a 5th division into S Lebanon
——— GENERAL ——————————-
U.S. official: No decision has yet been made to deploy the THAAD defense system in Israel.
NOTE - Discussion on THAAD deployments suggest US concern for a potential Iranian response to the pending Israeli strike.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
More evacuation orders for N Gaza as IDF presses southward toward Gaza City
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army tonight once again expanded its ground maneuver in southern Lebanon. An Israeli army division began ground maneuvering during the last few hours in one of the new areas in southern Lebanon. This increases the count to 5 ground divisions
(ISW). Israeli forces also appear to have at least partially secured some villages in southern Lebanon given the presence of Israeli journalists and unarmored engineering vehicles.
Israeli forces continued their air campaign across Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The IDF struck at least 115 Hezbollah targets, primarily in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah fired off several hundred rockets during Yom Kippur.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Unconfirmed reports that the IDF has breached into Syria from the Golan Heights, towards the town of Kwdana! Reportedly special ops forces in armored vehicles.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Rumors that the houthi are threatening to directly attack Israeli naval vessels with vessels of their own. Houthi have small, fast boats, commonly used by pirates in the region, with minimal armament as well as drone boats.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Ok, Yom Kippur is no longer a delaying excuse and the Israeli strike on Iran should happen this week. By current indicators, Israel is proceeding with a very large strike and not a symbolic hit like last time. Iran is trying to placate Israel by saying via third party they will overlook the impending attacks if they are not severe.
Bets are still on that oil, key headquarters, important nuclear sites and especially the mullahs are primary targets. Israel has no desire for this back and forth minor exchange scenario that the US is trying to force. Netanyahu realizes this is war and that Iran is trying to eradicate the nations from the face of the earth. biden et al don’t realize this or if they do are playing into Iran’s hand. biden hates Netanyahu and a strong Israel.
Hezbollah is trying to spin PR that Israel is failing in its initial phases of the S Lebanon operation. Mostly for the moral support of its fighters. Israel is establishing presence on the first line of hills overlooking the border having to work thru the defenses Hezbollah has built up since 2006 to deter another ground invasion.
Now with a 5th division attacking into Lebanon, Hezbollah really has its hands full. Leadership losses and communications challenges are going to work against them. I think that once Israel has finished breaching these border defenses, things will go more quickly as Hezbollah planned for its next war based on the limited 2006 conflict where Israel didn’t penetrate too deeply, so they have not planned a better defense in depth that the apparent israeli objects indicate.
On a more strategic level, hezbollah continues to lose ammo dumps, headquarters and senior leaders. Impacts are evident from the very weak rocket response Hezbollah has been mustering - generally just a few hundred rockets per day. Israel had expected thousands per day.
In Gaza, IDF is cornering more Hamas and affiliated groups and eradicating them. Hamas et al has fewer and fewer assets with which to challenge Israel, and the jihadi mentality causes their losses to increase accordingly.
This week’s alerts - man, if Israel doesn’t launch against Iran this week, when will they. I understand the necessity of making sure you have your bases covered because there is little room for errors on an attack of this nature.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We affirm our right to “appropriate response” to US sanctions imposed on us
***
According to latest reports, the Iran government and the country’s nuclear facilities have been hit by massive cyberattacks; while there is no information about when this happened and who is behind the attacks, it is being said that important information has been stolen.
As per the local media reports, all three branches of the Iranian government, namely, executive, legislature and judiciary have been hit by the massive cyberattacks. Along with the Iran government branches, the country’s nuclear facilities have also been targeted by these cyberattacks.
Iran International English quoted Firouzabadi, former Secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council of Cyberspace as saying, “Nearly all three branches of Iran’s government – the judiciary, the legislature and the executive branch – have been hit by heavy cyberattacks, and their information stolen.”
***
The United States still believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon despite Tehran’s recent strategic setbacks, including Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts to attack Israel, two U.S. officials told Reuters.
The comments from a senior Biden administration official and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence added to public remarks earlier this week by CIA Director William Burns, who said the United States had not seen any evidence Iran’s leader had reversed his 2003 decision to suspend the weaponization program.
“We assess that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003,” said the ODNI spokesperson, referring to Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-nuclear/2024/10/11/id/1183686/
OBSERVATION - A very dangerous assessment and one that strays far from understanding the moslem mind. Deception and lying is ingrained into islam, and the willing allowance this administration has given Iran via lifting of sanctions and out right cash payments just shows the ignorance of those in the intelligence field.
Syria -
US Central Command announces launching a series of airstrikes on ISIS sites in Syria
Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., a senior chief deputy whip who voted to object to George W. Bush’s electors in 2005, said a Trump win would need to be examined.
“I don’t know what kind of shenanigans he is planning,” she said, Axios reported. “We would have to, in any election ... make sure that all the rules have been followed.”
What blatant projection.
The stinking hypocrites only want the rules enforced when it benefits them.
In 2020 they did everything they’re now accusing Trump of doing.
We desperately need some major Divine Intervention in this election.
Who would want to eat anything packaged by them?
Prepare your own food. At the very least, you have a much better idea what’s in it.
Happy Columbus Day
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
An armed man was arrested outside Donald Trump’s rally in Coachella, California, after allegedly stating his intent to “kill the president,” according to the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department. Sheriff Chad Bianco confirmed the arrest of the individual, who was found with two firearms near the rally’s perimeter.
Vem Miller, the conservative activist accused of possibly trying to assassinate Trump, is calling the claim from the Riverside sheriff “complete bullsh—.” Miller was charged with weapons violations when he was arrested about a quarter-mile from the rally.
From reports, he’s a “sovereign citizen” activist. Deputies became suspicious of Miller due to the interior of his vehicle being in “disarray” and having fake license plates consistent of groups claiming to be “sovereign citizens,” and was unregistered, Bianco said. Bianco said Sunday. Miller claimed to be a journalist, and had multiple fake passports with different names inside, Bianco said.
The arrest took place at a checkpoint at the intersection of Avenue 52 and Celebration Drive in Coachella at 4:59 p.m. on Saturday, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Office said. The rally was scheduled to start at 5 p.m.
Miller was found to be in illegal possession of a shotgun, a loaded handgun, and a high-capacity magazine (all are illegal to possess in the state of Kalifornia).
He is facing weapons charges and was released on $5000 bail.
OBSERVATION - This is a weird situation and I’ve placed it hear just because of the publicized assassination threat. The probable biggest aspect of this is what appears to be his ‘”sovereign citizen” status with a lot of fake ID’s and VIP/Press passes. From others who knew him, his threat to kill trump are foreign to his nature and was understood to be a trump supporter. If this was an assassination attempt, a $5k bond would have never been issued and currently there are no federal charges pending.
It appears this guy is pretty nutty and nut jobs have tendencies to do some really stupid things, like attempting to assassinate a presidential candidate they support. I don’t think this is the issue here, but more likely an arrest that resulted in gun charges over an unregistered/licensed vehicle trying to enter a secured area.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating Atlantic Ocean having left the eastern Med.
The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group continues to operate in the North Arabian Sea. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered Abraham Lincoln and its attached destroyers to remain in the region as regional conflict intensified, according to a Pentagon statement.
***
The United States will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery and troops to Israel, the Pentagon said Sunday, even as Iran warned Washington to keep American military forces out of Israel.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized the deployment of the THAAD battery at the direction of President Joe Biden.
Generally each battery consists of six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors, radio and radar equipment and required 95 soldiers to operate.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
With election day fast approaching, so to the rise in rhetoric. In regards to polling (see warnings above) traditionally democrat/liberal sources show the race has swung to a 50/50 to slight trump lead. Observers note that in these polls, trump is doing far better than he was in 2016 and 2020. I think in large part these lefty polls are trying to center back to reality because if they blow their final projection -they lose credibility and future funding. This is a typical trend.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Parodies of Walz as Elmer Fudd continue to go viral.
Harris’ challenge for Trump to appear on a CNN townhall have fallen on deaf ears. She says she intends to do it anyway. Could be another disaster as CNN this cycle has been uncharacteristically brutal to the democrats and she may face a much more hostile scenario than all the scripted and preplanned interviews of the past.
Trump for his part is likely on the track of letting his opponent self destruct on their own.
China –
China on Monday launched new military drills off the coast of Taiwan in what it described as “punishment” for a speech given by its president William Lai, when he vowed to “resist annexation” or “encroachment upon our sovereignty”.
China claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own and its president Xi Jinping has vowed to retake it by force if necessary.
Taiwan said it detected 34 naval vessels and 125 aircraft in formation around the island on Monday.
Maps published by Chinese state media indicated its forces were positioned around the whole island. It said later on Monday that the drills had been successfully concluded.
OBSERVATION - The extent of the deployment around Taiwan is indicative of a naval blockade plan rather than a physical invasion. A naval blockade is currently the most likely threat to Taiwan, and though risky, its it not as risky as attempting to capture the island via an amphibious operation.
North/South Korea –
N Korea placed its artillery units on a state of high alert over the weekend. One of the key components of NK’s war plan against the south is to launch a massive artillery attack on the south - principally Seoul - as a preclude to an invasion.
The alert did not appear to involve other ground forces and seems to follow recent saber rattling by Kim over recent US/SK exercises.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A rare period of no Sahed drone attacks.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
After some initial successes, the Russian counter attack in the western portion of the Kursk Salient seem to have stalled out.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces focusing their attacks on the western portion of the salient from Pokrovsk southward.
Outlook —
Russia is throwing everything it has along the Donbas front. Putin wants full control of the region badly. That effort has been hampered by the diversion of forces towards the Kursk front.
Ukraine has been giving up more ground over the past months- uncharacteristic of its tenacious defense of the past couple years. But those terrain losses have cost Russia greatly.
Russia’s current estimated losses now exceed 600,000 - a devastatingly blood campaign for Russia. They have had to almost continually raise the age of conscription to feed the meat grinder.
Ground action continues as it has over the past month or so. Still expect a Russian missile/drone attack of large proportions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah drone hits dining facility, killing 4 and wounding around 60 others.
- US THADD battery enroute manned by US soldiers
- UN ‘peacekeeping’ forces ordered to leave S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Pentagon has announced the immediate deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery operated by U.S. soldiers to Israel, in order to bolster Israeli defenses against any future attack by Iran using ballistic missiles.
The deployment of the United States defense system in Israel - for the first time since the Gulf War in 1991. The system is designed as a layer backing up the Patriot system and can rightly be equated to Israel’s David Sling missile defense system but with a slightly longer range.
***
Israel has called for the removal of UN peacekeeping forces from S Lebanon as Hezbollah bunkers and firing positions are essentially co-located with nearly all of the UN OPs and other facilities. UN has so far rejected the command.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
More evacuation orders for N Gaza as IDF presses southward toward Gaza City
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, Abbas Nilforoushan, is an illegal act and an unforgivable crime. Nilforoushan was killed in the same raid that targeted Hassan Nasrallah, and his body was found last Friday, and his funeral ceremony will begin today in the Iraqi city of Karbala.
Hezbollah drones and rockets have increasingly targeted the Haifa area. Hezbollah claiming they desire to make this the new Kiryat Shmona, a city in the Galilee region that has historically faced the brunt of Hezbollah rocket attacks.
***
A UAV, launched by the Hezbollah, directly hit the dining room at the Golani divisional training base, while dozens of recent recruits were inside eating dinner.
In all, 51 soldiers were injured in the incident, including nine in moderate condition. The rest are in light condition. Four have been reported as killed.
Preliminary investigation indicates that the Hezbollah UAV was an Iranian Mirsad-1 with a payload of 20KG explosive.
***
Israeli ground forces continue to press northward into Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli bombing raid targeted a crossing linking the towns of Jarmash and Qusayr on the Lebanese-Syrian border
An Iranian 747 cargo jet linked to arms shipments to Hezbollah has landed twice at a Russian controlled airbase in Syria. Israel recently hit a delivery to the same airbase a few weeks ago. Iran is currently unable to land in Beirut or Damascus because of Israeli embargo threats. This Russian airfield is safer until Iran tries to move the materials off base, whereupon Israel is on it like white on rice. As in the past, an Israeli airstrike is expected sooner rather than later.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrest 50 during a large-scale raid campaign in West Bank cities
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia, Syria and Iran should take more effective measures to protect Syria’s territorial integrity, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday, when asked about Israel’s recent alleged strike on Damascus. “We will defend an urgent and permanent peace in Syria…. Israel is the most concrete threat to regional and global peace,” Erdogan said in an interview with Turkish media.
There are some unconfirmed rumbling from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia that they would prefer Israel to takeout Iranian nuclear sites and not oil facilities given Iran’s threats to take out ‘supporting’ Gulf states oil facilities as a response.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The deployment of a THAAD battery to Israel brings an interesting new component to the puzzle. Its presence is a harbinger of an anticipated Iranian response to the impending Israeli attack. I estimate it will take them about a week to get deployed and set up.
Israel doesn’t need them to be operations when they launch their counter strike as Iran would be unlikely to launch a response in a quick manner, judging from the last two missile attacks. It presence DOES indicate the likelihood that Israel’s attack will be pretty big and hitting possible ‘red line’ targets, prompting a large Iranian response.
This deployment may also be in exchange for some modifications in the current Israeli operations - primarily the systematic destruction of Hezbollah facilities in Beirut. Those attacks have ceased for the past four days. However, with the recent drone attack, targeting of Beirut may soon resume.
Timing of the Israeli attack on Iran remains unknown. Initial delays due to Israeli holy days are past, but now a new feature is the closeness of the US elections. That may affect to some degree some of the targets, but the general consensus is that it will not further delay Israel’s timing for an attack.
Action is Gaza has picked up some temp as IDF elements squash Hamas and affiliate terror groups attempt to reassert their power in N Gaza. Many see this as the first step into converting the north into a military district under direct Israeli governance.
Israel to continue to eradicate Hezbollah forces in S Lebanon. Action may cause injuries/deaths to so called UN peacekeeper forces due to the proximity that Hezbollah has set up ammo caches and firing positions to those UN OPs and other facilities.
Israel’s attack on Iran is still widely expected this week.
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