Happy Columbus Day
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
An armed man was arrested outside Donald Trump’s rally in Coachella, California, after allegedly stating his intent to “kill the president,” according to the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department. Sheriff Chad Bianco confirmed the arrest of the individual, who was found with two firearms near the rally’s perimeter.
Vem Miller, the conservative activist accused of possibly trying to assassinate Trump, is calling the claim from the Riverside sheriff “complete bullsh—.” Miller was charged with weapons violations when he was arrested about a quarter-mile from the rally.
From reports, he’s a “sovereign citizen” activist. Deputies became suspicious of Miller due to the interior of his vehicle being in “disarray” and having fake license plates consistent of groups claiming to be “sovereign citizens,” and was unregistered, Bianco said. Bianco said Sunday. Miller claimed to be a journalist, and had multiple fake passports with different names inside, Bianco said.
The arrest took place at a checkpoint at the intersection of Avenue 52 and Celebration Drive in Coachella at 4:59 p.m. on Saturday, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Office said. The rally was scheduled to start at 5 p.m.
Miller was found to be in illegal possession of a shotgun, a loaded handgun, and a high-capacity magazine (all are illegal to possess in the state of Kalifornia).
He is facing weapons charges and was released on $5000 bail.
OBSERVATION - This is a weird situation and I’ve placed it hear just because of the publicized assassination threat. The probable biggest aspect of this is what appears to be his ‘”sovereign citizen” status with a lot of fake ID’s and VIP/Press passes. From others who knew him, his threat to kill trump are foreign to his nature and was understood to be a trump supporter. If this was an assassination attempt, a $5k bond would have never been issued and currently there are no federal charges pending.
It appears this guy is pretty nutty and nut jobs have tendencies to do some really stupid things, like attempting to assassinate a presidential candidate they support. I don’t think this is the issue here, but more likely an arrest that resulted in gun charges over an unregistered/licensed vehicle trying to enter a secured area.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating Atlantic Ocean having left the eastern Med.
The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group continues to operate in the North Arabian Sea. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered Abraham Lincoln and its attached destroyers to remain in the region as regional conflict intensified, according to a Pentagon statement.
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The United States will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery and troops to Israel, the Pentagon said Sunday, even as Iran warned Washington to keep American military forces out of Israel.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized the deployment of the THAAD battery at the direction of President Joe Biden.
Generally each battery consists of six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors, radio and radar equipment and required 95 soldiers to operate.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
With election day fast approaching, so to the rise in rhetoric. In regards to polling (see warnings above) traditionally democrat/liberal sources show the race has swung to a 50/50 to slight trump lead. Observers note that in these polls, trump is doing far better than he was in 2016 and 2020. I think in large part these lefty polls are trying to center back to reality because if they blow their final projection -they lose credibility and future funding. This is a typical trend.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Parodies of Walz as Elmer Fudd continue to go viral.
Harris’ challenge for Trump to appear on a CNN townhall have fallen on deaf ears. She says she intends to do it anyway. Could be another disaster as CNN this cycle has been uncharacteristically brutal to the democrats and she may face a much more hostile scenario than all the scripted and preplanned interviews of the past.
Trump for his part is likely on the track of letting his opponent self destruct on their own.
China –
China on Monday launched new military drills off the coast of Taiwan in what it described as “punishment” for a speech given by its president William Lai, when he vowed to “resist annexation” or “encroachment upon our sovereignty”.
China claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own and its president Xi Jinping has vowed to retake it by force if necessary.
Taiwan said it detected 34 naval vessels and 125 aircraft in formation around the island on Monday.
Maps published by Chinese state media indicated its forces were positioned around the whole island. It said later on Monday that the drills had been successfully concluded.
OBSERVATION - The extent of the deployment around Taiwan is indicative of a naval blockade plan rather than a physical invasion. A naval blockade is currently the most likely threat to Taiwan, and though risky, its it not as risky as attempting to capture the island via an amphibious operation.
North/South Korea –
N Korea placed its artillery units on a state of high alert over the weekend. One of the key components of NK’s war plan against the south is to launch a massive artillery attack on the south - principally Seoul - as a preclude to an invasion.
The alert did not appear to involve other ground forces and seems to follow recent saber rattling by Kim over recent US/SK exercises.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A rare period of no Sahed drone attacks.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
After some initial successes, the Russian counter attack in the western portion of the Kursk Salient seem to have stalled out.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces focusing their attacks on the western portion of the salient from Pokrovsk southward.
Outlook —
Russia is throwing everything it has along the Donbas front. Putin wants full control of the region badly. That effort has been hampered by the diversion of forces towards the Kursk front.
Ukraine has been giving up more ground over the past months- uncharacteristic of its tenacious defense of the past couple years. But those terrain losses have cost Russia greatly.
Russia’s current estimated losses now exceed 600,000 - a devastatingly blood campaign for Russia. They have had to almost continually raise the age of conscription to feed the meat grinder.
Ground action continues as it has over the past month or so. Still expect a Russian missile/drone attack of large proportions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah drone hits dining facility, killing 4 and wounding around 60 others.
- US THADD battery enroute manned by US soldiers
- UN ‘peacekeeping’ forces ordered to leave S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Pentagon has announced the immediate deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery operated by U.S. soldiers to Israel, in order to bolster Israeli defenses against any future attack by Iran using ballistic missiles.
The deployment of the United States defense system in Israel - for the first time since the Gulf War in 1991. The system is designed as a layer backing up the Patriot system and can rightly be equated to Israel’s David Sling missile defense system but with a slightly longer range.
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Israel has called for the removal of UN peacekeeping forces from S Lebanon as Hezbollah bunkers and firing positions are essentially co-located with nearly all of the UN OPs and other facilities. UN has so far rejected the command.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
More evacuation orders for N Gaza as IDF presses southward toward Gaza City
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, Abbas Nilforoushan, is an illegal act and an unforgivable crime. Nilforoushan was killed in the same raid that targeted Hassan Nasrallah, and his body was found last Friday, and his funeral ceremony will begin today in the Iraqi city of Karbala.
Hezbollah drones and rockets have increasingly targeted the Haifa area. Hezbollah claiming they desire to make this the new Kiryat Shmona, a city in the Galilee region that has historically faced the brunt of Hezbollah rocket attacks.
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A UAV, launched by the Hezbollah, directly hit the dining room at the Golani divisional training base, while dozens of recent recruits were inside eating dinner.
In all, 51 soldiers were injured in the incident, including nine in moderate condition. The rest are in light condition. Four have been reported as killed.
Preliminary investigation indicates that the Hezbollah UAV was an Iranian Mirsad-1 with a payload of 20KG explosive.
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Israeli ground forces continue to press northward into Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli bombing raid targeted a crossing linking the towns of Jarmash and Qusayr on the Lebanese-Syrian border
An Iranian 747 cargo jet linked to arms shipments to Hezbollah has landed twice at a Russian controlled airbase in Syria. Israel recently hit a delivery to the same airbase a few weeks ago. Iran is currently unable to land in Beirut or Damascus because of Israeli embargo threats. This Russian airfield is safer until Iran tries to move the materials off base, whereupon Israel is on it like white on rice. As in the past, an Israeli airstrike is expected sooner rather than later.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrest 50 during a large-scale raid campaign in West Bank cities
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia, Syria and Iran should take more effective measures to protect Syria’s territorial integrity, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday, when asked about Israel’s recent alleged strike on Damascus. “We will defend an urgent and permanent peace in Syria…. Israel is the most concrete threat to regional and global peace,” Erdogan said in an interview with Turkish media.
There are some unconfirmed rumbling from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia that they would prefer Israel to takeout Iranian nuclear sites and not oil facilities given Iran’s threats to take out ‘supporting’ Gulf states oil facilities as a response.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The deployment of a THAAD battery to Israel brings an interesting new component to the puzzle. Its presence is a harbinger of an anticipated Iranian response to the impending Israeli attack. I estimate it will take them about a week to get deployed and set up.
Israel doesn’t need them to be operations when they launch their counter strike as Iran would be unlikely to launch a response in a quick manner, judging from the last two missile attacks. It presence DOES indicate the likelihood that Israel’s attack will be pretty big and hitting possible ‘red line’ targets, prompting a large Iranian response.
This deployment may also be in exchange for some modifications in the current Israeli operations - primarily the systematic destruction of Hezbollah facilities in Beirut. Those attacks have ceased for the past four days. However, with the recent drone attack, targeting of Beirut may soon resume.
Timing of the Israeli attack on Iran remains unknown. Initial delays due to Israeli holy days are past, but now a new feature is the closeness of the US elections. That may affect to some degree some of the targets, but the general consensus is that it will not further delay Israel’s timing for an attack.
Action is Gaza has picked up some temp as IDF elements squash Hamas and affiliate terror groups attempt to reassert their power in N Gaza. Many see this as the first step into converting the north into a military district under direct Israeli governance.
Israel to continue to eradicate Hezbollah forces in S Lebanon. Action may cause injuries/deaths to so called UN peacekeeper forces due to the proximity that Hezbollah has set up ammo caches and firing positions to those UN OPs and other facilities.
Israel’s attack on Iran is still widely expected this week.
A Quaker hears a noise downstairs and goes to investigate. He then finds a burglar taking his valuables. Aiming his gun at the burglar, the Quaker yells...
"Friend, I mean thee no harm, but thou art standing where I am about to fire!"
Thanks Godzilla
CNN might be fighting for some of their very old way back - credibility... Good for them.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
One person has been arrested for threatening FEMA workers.
This arrest has generated claims that there are of groups of “armed militias “ seeking fema employees in NC. These false reports even go on to claim FEMA has withdrawn workers from areas in fear of their safety.
Apart from the solo arrest, there is absolutely no backup for the other claims. That hasn’t stopped leftist commentators from running with the ‘story’.
OBSERVATION - The lack of fact checking by the infamous fact checkers shows the double standard of so called misinformation. The closer the nation comes to going sideways, the more and louder these kind of news ‘reports’ will be, increasing the chance of an actual exchange of fire between elements.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
As early votes come in, there are reports that Trump appears to be over performing in the early balloting and democrat response is down. This would be a significant turn around from past elections. Don’t go to the bank on it yet, just keep it in mind.
***
One of my greater concerns/scenarios is the possibility that after a trump win, the regime will unleash all kinds of chaos in the last few days with the possible goal of instituting a martial law scenario where they could block trump’s swearing in or worse. Barring that, then the chaos would make a sizable chunk of Trumps term very unmanageable.
Even with a Harris win, the regime could likely take steps to launch retribution against trump supporters and flood the zone with EOs.
The potential goes way beyond removing the “W” keys from keyboards as the Clinton staff did.
Biden / Harris Watch –
It has been uncovered that Kamala Harris plagiarized her book, “Smart on Crime”, according to a new investigation. The current vice president even lifted material from Wikipedia. (eye roll)
This combined with the accusations (now potentially being formalized) that Walz sexually assaulted a teen as a high school teacher has put the campaign off to a rocky start this week.
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An Axios report alleged Sunday that there is growing tension and miscommunication between the White House and the Harris campaign.
National political correspondent Alex Thompson reported “many senior Biden aides remain wounded by the president being pushed out of his re-election bid and are still adjusting to being in a supporting role on the campaign trail.”
“They’re too much in their feelings,” one Harris ally reportedly told Axios about the White House.
Thompson wrote the main issue with some Harris campaign members is that White House aides “aren’t sufficiently coordinating Biden’s messaging and schedule to align with what’s best for the vice president’s campaign.”
OBSERVATION - Observers noted the most recent apparent flareup when biden complimented Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for handling recent hurricanes shortly after Harris criticized DeSantis for not taking her calls.
China –
Taiwan military reports 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels and 12 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 111 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s western, southwestern and eastern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded.
OBSERVATIONS - This is associated with the Chinese drill that essentially surrounded Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
Following reports of observed “Unusual Movement” along the North Korean-side of the border, South Korea reports that North Korea has blown up roads connecting the two countries on both the eastern and western sides.
North Korean media says Kim Jong Un held a meeting to discuss “a serious provocation violating sovereignty” and military response plans. This comes after an alleged “drone invasion” with anti-North Korean leaflets over Pyongyang.
Following the explosion, unconfirmed reports that, the South Korean military opened fire south of the demarcation line.
OBSERVATION - See Russia below on reports of a new treaty between NK and Russia. The probable support Kim is receiving from putin is likely enough for him to feel froggy to some extent. Also note that the actions on his part are more defensive than offensive. If he wants to invade, the same blown bridges and transportation corridors that would hinder a SK force, will hinder his forces as well.
Russia -
*****
Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft ratification of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea. The document was signed on June 19, during his visit to Pyongyang.
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Kremlin: We will not disclose whether there are clauses on mutual defense in the strategic partnership agreement with Iran. Also Kremlin’s spokesperson says that agreement with North Korea is very clear, when he was asked to clarify the agreement with North Korea on defense
OBSERVATION - Mutual defense components with Iran are potentially serious. See discussion under Israel below
Logistics –
Russian forces are reportedly not preparing for winter on the front and are trying to achieve their goals before the frost sets in, according to spokeswoman of the operational-tactical group “Luhansk” Anastasia Bobovnikova. While Ukrainian troops are actively preparing for winter conditions, Russians are relying on the dry weather in the Donetsk region to continue to press the attack.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is allegedly forming a battalion of North Korean citizens based on a Buryat brigade, LIGA reports. The battalion would be being created within the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, with an estimated 3,000 personnel. It’s speculated that this unit may be deployed for combat missions near Sudzha in the Kursk region.
OBSERVATION - There have been reports from Ukraine of N Korean military being encountered in the Kursk region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/7 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/2 Kh-59 cruise missiles
12/17 Shahed drones
4/17 Shahed drones due to electronic warfare.
Over 5 S-300 missiles hit Mykolaiv, resulting in the death of one woman and injuring 16 others. In one residential area, infrastructure, private homes, and cars were damaged
Russia continues to press the attack all along the Donbas Front. Some minor gains reported.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports of captured N Korean soldiers being encountered / captured.
Outlook —
Weather is beginning to change and Russia is attempting to take as much ground as possible before winter sets in. This effort may turn around and bite them on the butt as they are apparently doing so instead of making winter preparations. The past couple winters have been brutal for Russians, no winter gear, equipment issues, cold weather injuries, etc.
Russia has thrown together several combat units together. The most recent appears to be N Korean elements to fight in the Kursk region. While potentially freeing up Russian forces to shift back to the Donbas region, there are other difficulties too. Language is probably the most significant problem when coordination is needed. Second, there is a prejudice in the Russian army for - Russians. The NK unit may not get fire support it needs on its missions.
No doubt that Kim has sent good quality forces - for NK. He needs to show himself to be a good and desired partner of Russia. NK are acclimated to brutal winters, so they may be a benefit in the coming months. Also, as the more choice, they are physically and ideologically ‘pure’ and fit to fight versus the standard NK soldier struggling to raise enough food to keep from starving. Just how well they adapt to the war will be interesting to observe.
Brutal ground fighting to continue, but no major breakthroughs anticipated by either side.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: The alliance will continue its strong support for Kyiv and will not be afraid of Russian threats
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Finalized targeting plans reportedly have been approved, pending operational orders
- Rumors that Iranian targets are going to be military and not nuclear or oil.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed reports that PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and other government ministers have reached an agreement on the intensity and timing of the Israeli attack on Iran, according to Kann News. Final approval from Israel’s security cabinet is required
Unconfirmed reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed the Biden administration that he is prepared to carry out a military strike targeting Iranian military facilities, rather than its oil or nuclear infrastructure, two officials with knowledge of the discussions told The Washington Post on Monday. This approach suggests a more restrained counterstrike aimed at preventing a broader war.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Intense operations in N Gaza continue as the IDF has surrounded Hamas et al forces and are closing in on them.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF Air Force struck about 200 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanon over the past day.
Hezbollah has conducted at least 30 attacks into Israel on October 13.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
From the rumor side, it appears that Israel may have submitted to some of the US demands not to strike Iranian nuclear or oil facilities in the impending attack. However, that doesn’t mean that what ever Israel hits will not be hit hard, on the contrary, Iran is going to feel some hurt this time. I think the deployment of the THADDs is evidence that a large retaliatory strike from Iran is expected
So the odds have shifted to military and very likely political sites. Assuming a delayed Iranian response and subsequent Israeli response, the next cycle of attacks will likely be after the elections - and Israel would no longer face the leverage of influencing the election - and go after the nuclear and oil targets.
External rumors suggest that target set has been set, just final review and launch. I still think that it will happen by the end of the week.
There are rumors of a mutual support treaty component with Russia, meaning if Iran is attacked, Russia will attack the attacker. I don’t see this aspect becoming fully operational in this round of strikes/counter strikes, but could come into play in future rounds. Russian assets are focused on Ukraine. Russia maintains a military force in Syria, but should that element rise up to challenge Israel, it would not last long. The biggest immediate response could be interception of Israel missiles directed towards Iran, similar to what the US did against the previous Iranian attacks. Beyond a defensive operation, use of offensive weapons against Israel would potentially set off a much, much larger regional conflict I inspire of all its bravado, one that putin would want to avoid a this stage.
Hezbollah continues to get hammered in S Lebanon as Israel methodically pushes thru the first defensive lines. Mixed in with all the reports have been the discovery of just how large of an Oct 7 style attack Hezbollah was planning, far greater than was initially thought.
The UN continues to refuse to pull its ‘peace keeping’ forces out of harms way, thinking that it will deter Israel from attacks. I don’t think they thought this one out too well. Since they allowed Hezbollah to build bunkers next to their facilities, any fall out from attacks on those bunkers is on them.
Hezbollah is trying to quickly adapt to Israel’s Iron Dome system. It is virtually shutting off the rocket attacks across N Israel. To accomplish this, it appears that they are fast tracking the use of drones that can fly low enough to escape most of the detections by Israeli radar systems. This is the main weakness of Iron Dome - low flying drones. The profile of the one that hit the dining hall, killing 4, was deceptive enough to prevent ID as a hostile. Hezbollah resources in country are stressed by Israeli bombing so they may become heavily reliant on supply by Iran - and that supply line is very endangered.
In N Gaza, Israeli is choking off Hamas and allies, surrounding them and pummeling them into the dirt.
Iran –
Biden issued a warning to Iran, threatening that any assassination plot on former President Donald Trump would be considered an act of war. Biden’s warning follows after Trump’s campaign was reportedly briefed by U.S. intelligence regarding Iranian assassination threats.
OBSERVATION - I seriously question the size of any US response, if one occurs at all.
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Esmail Qaani appears after almost 2 weeks of absence, despite claims of his death, disappearance, & arrest
He was seen at Mehrabad airport, at the arrival ceremony for the body of martyred IRGC general Abbas Nilforoushan
OBSERVATION - The soap opera surrounding Qaani continues. He is confirmed now to be alive, the question still remains is he under detention as a suspected Israeli spy?