Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
The FBI arrested an Afghan man who it says was influenced by the Islamic State to plan an Election Day attack that would have targeted large crowds in the US, AP reported Tuesday.
Agents arrested Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, after an investigation that discovered the man had been stockpiling automatic weapons and had been in the process of liquidating his family’s assets. After his arrest he confessed to investigators that he was planning an attack that would hit large crowds. Tawhedi disclosed he has a juvenile co-conspirator and that they both expected to die as Islamic martyrs. He had bought a one-way ticket for his wife and child to travel back to Afghanistan. Tawhedi, who entered the United States in 2021 on a special immigrant visa, was charged with conspiring and attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State group.
OBSERVATION - How many more like him are out there? Literally hundreds of thousands.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More than two dozen Navy ships — including three that are currently in service — received faulty welds at the Huntington Ingalls Industries shipyard in Newport News, Virginia, the service’s top civilian leader told lawmakers last week.
In a letter to Congress dated Oct. 3, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said that poor welds were found on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington as well as the attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover and USS New Jersey. In addition, the welding issues were identified on 23 more ships — a mix of new construction, ships in maintenance and aircraft carriers undergoing refueling.
OBSERVATION - this is growing to be a scandal of great concern. Shows a gross lack of QA/QC by both the contractor as well as the Navy. I hope the contractor maintained records on who worked on what weld areas so the culprit(s) can be arrested - but don’t hold your breath.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Never thought I’d see democrats rallying porn stars to support their candidate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
CBS edited out Kamala’s incoherent response from a “60 Minutes” interview and replaced it with what now appears to be a response to an entirely different question
These are the same people railing about misinformation. Who needs AI when CBS will creatively edit an interview in this manner.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration said it will not renew two-year permits for immigrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua who entered the U.S. through immigration parole flights. A Biden official familiar with the program said it is likely only a small number of the 30,000 entering the U.S. each month are at risk of losing their immigration parole status.
OBSERVATION - I don’t trust their numbers, and neither should you.
Russia -
Russia demands Ukraine withdraw its troops from four partially occupied regions in Ukraine and abandon plans to join NATO, said FM Lavrov in an interview with Newsweek. He outlined conditions including Ukraine’s demilitarization, neutrality, and the recognition of territorial changes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 22 Shahed-type drones overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Action by Russia continue, but no significant changes noted. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces retaking some towns in the Kursk region.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing Ukraine defenses south of the town.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Heavy fighting continues around Chasiv Yar.
Crimean front —
Another fuel reservoir exploded at the oil depot in Feodosiya, fire has been uncontrollable since Ukraine drone strikes from a few days ago.
Russian Territory –
Explosions at a GRAU military arsenal in Karachev of Bryansk region reported overnight.
Outlook —
The daily slog along the Donbas front continues with Russia continuing to claw out small, localized gains at heavy losses.
Russian missile blitz still over due.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania has fortified another bridge over the Nemunas River on the route from the Kaliningrad. Fortifications are progressing as planned, with some bridges set to be demolished.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- IAF targeted Hezbollah and possibly Iranian leadership in Damascus strike.
- Galant’s trip to the US has been postponed/cancelled by Netanyahu.
- US complaining of being left in the dark over Israeli plans and timing.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli Air Force struck over 230 targets over the past day, in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the targets included 185 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, and some 45 Hamas sites in Gaza, including sites where cells of operatives were cells of operatives were gathered, observation posts, rocket launchers, and weapon depots. The IDF says troops continue to battle Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon, and during the past day several gunmen were killed in close-quarters combat and in airstrikes.
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Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to approve Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s trip to Washington planned for tonight until a he gets a phone call with President Biden and until the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to a source with knowledge of the details
***
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to hold a critical phone call on Wednesday morning with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Israel’s plans to strike Iran in retaliation for its ballistic missile attack on Israel last week, three US officials told Axios on Tuesday.
This conversation would mark the first contact between Biden and Netanyahu in two months.
On Tuesday night, Netanyahu met for hours with senior ministers and the heads of Israel’s military and intelligence agencies to decide the scope and timing of their planned strikes on Iran, two Israeli officials told Axios.
These officials indicated that Israel’s response will be substantial, likely involving a mix of air strikes on military targets in Iran as well as covert operations. Israel has also considered strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, a move Biden has signaled he would oppose.
A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision is made, Netanyahu would brief Biden.
“We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” a US official told Axios.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/397329
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City, on October 8 after launching a new operation there to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts.
The IDF Air Force also struck 70 unspecified targets in the Gaza Strip on October 8.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah targets in S Beirut, multiple ammo storage facilities hit.
IDF ground forces continue to press into S Lebanon.
Hezbollah fired about 20 rockets at Kiryat Shmona this morning. Another Iron Dome glitch allowed some rockets to penetrate resulting in several deaths
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Al Hadath: An official in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 was targeted in an airstrike in the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, Syria. Unit 4400 is responsible for transferring weapons from Iran and its proxies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian embassy in Damascus denies the presence of Iranians in the building targeted by the Israeli raid in the Mazzeh neighborhood
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed militias have targeted the Conoco military base in eastern Deir ez-Zur сountryside
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel maintains the momentum and initiative in the fight against both Hamas and Hezbollah. What appears to be slow progress in Lebanon is due to the need to deal with heavily fortified Hezbollah positions set up in border towns. Once this defensive line has been breached, movement should go faster.
Amir Tsefarti makes the following observation on the potential financial hit to Hezbollah forces and supporters on his Telegraph channel -
“According to the sources in Lebanon, the one-ton penetrating bombs thrown at Hezbollah’s underground headquarters caused heavy damage to the organization’s vaults full of dollars. In Lebanon, there are different estimates regarding the amounts that Hezbollah lost, although of course there is no exact figure.
“This is bad news for the thousands of fighters, employees, managers and loyalists in the organization’s institutions, who, along with the thousands of families of the dead, wounded and disabled, are waiting for monthly salaries and assistance from it. In addition to the budgets allocated to dozens of health, education, social and media institutions affiliated with it. Even if part of the treasury [of the organization] or all of it has survived until now, questions arise regarding Hezbollah’s ability to continue to guarantee its financial obligations, due to the costs of displacement and war, especially if the campaign is prolonged or expanded,” one of the sources was quoted as saying”
Cash payments become hard to pay if your cash is all burned up and your line of credit isn’t looking good.
Some indicators/rumors now that Israel is going to wait until after Yom Kippur to strike at Iran. At this date, delay of a few more days to get the holy day behind it may ease a lot of logistical and social aspects of the attack. This will be Israels largest attack against Iran ever.
Big rumblings coming out of DC and the pentagon over the OPSEC of Israel towards US officials. One unconfirmed report was how dumbfounded the govt was when informed of the strike that took out Nassaralla. Israel rightly so doesn’t trust the US govt with its warplans. Too many leaks in the past and too many sympathetic, pro-islamic radical elements therein. Just how much Netanyahu will reveal to biden if their phone call happens is speculation, but I suspect no significant information will be given to biden.
The Gallant trip at the very least was an effort by the US to split him from Netanyahu’s warplans and decision making. The goal being forcing Israel to conform to US desires in the region over fears of an escalating regional conflict. “We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” from above. Of course that US official isn’t running to bomb shelters nearly every day either.
This is war- either go big or go home. US deterrence has devolved into a namby pamby game of insignificant strikes that do very little (Rush would say - “Symbolism over substance”) Arab culture only respect strength, something we’ve failed to realize going as far back as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. WW2 wasn’t won on this doctrine of ‘proportionality” and fear of escalating the war - the allies bombed the living daylights out of Germany and Japan, forcing their surrender.
Netanyahu’s forcing biden to respond will put the US on record. I doubt that he is going to leave honey badger mode for these faux concerns by the US. What he will say is yet to be seen, but if trends continue, it will be sharp and too the point. The US has lost regional credibility in efforts against Iran due to the billions of dollars of ‘raised’ (not lifted - snark) sanctions, allowing billions to flow into the country. An Israeli strike may also just expose that scam.
So my look at the tea leaves has the Iranian strike shifting to after Yom Kippur (poss as early as Oct 13). I expect that Israel will stick to massive targeting of oil sites as well as the hidy holes of the mullahs, in addition to key military sites. There is a fair possibility that Israel may avoid direct attacks on nuclear sites. I’d say if they do, that they target the ADA units surrounding those sites. Russia’s inventory of S300/S400/S500 is tremendously stretched due to the Ukraine war and Iran will be hard pressed to replace any losses. This would make those nuke facilities even more vulnerable to any necessary follow on stakes.
Iran –
(ISW). US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on October 7 that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in around a week.
Burns also stated that the US has observed no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered the regime to build a nuclear weapon.
Burns added that the United States and its partners should be able to detect “relatively early on” if Iran begins building a nuclear weapon.
OBSERVATION - The potential to rapidly produce the 90%+ enriched uranium necessary to fuel a nuclear bomb has been out there for quite a while. It is all the other components necessary to generate a fission reaction that are critical.
AFA US intelligence claims to be able to detect the construction of a nuclear weapon “early on” is what I am very skeptical about.
Big question is just how much and type of assistance has Iran received from N Korea and Russia.
Misc of Note –
(FO) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the structure of Hurricane Milton changed significantly overnight, and Hurricane Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
The NHC said Hurricane Milton is expected to grow in size as it approaches Florida, and “this is an extremely life-threatening situation.”
“As bad as Helene was, it will not really come close to the amount of spending you will see with this storm” if Hurricane Milton makes landfall in the Tampa, FL metro area, former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Craig Fugate said.
OBSERVATION - Another old prepper adage goes ‘the time for prepping is down when the disaster is upon you’ It will be literally months before Florida is back in business after these two hurricane strikes.
But Americans across the country are blissfully ignorant of dangers posed by nature on their areas. Please, do a study of your home areas - discern if you face flooding, fire, other storm, earthquake etc. dangers and take steps to prepare NOW. Nature gives no mulligans.
Thanks Godzilla
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Inflation hit a fresh three-year low in September as another drop in gasoline prices offset a rise in used car and auto insurance costs but price gains slowed less than expected and a gauge of underlying price increases picked up.
Overall consumer prices increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.5% in August, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a wide-ranging gauge of goods and services costs. That’s the smallest increase since February 2021 and the sixth straight pullback, leaving inflation modestly above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists polled by Bloomberg, though, expected a drop to 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, costs edged up 0.2%, in line with the previous month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched more closely by the Fed, increased 0.3%, similar to August. That nudged up yearly core inflation to 3.3% from 3.2% the prior month. Forecasters expected the core measure to hold steady.
OBSERVATIONS - Analysts think these are good numbers, but reality is far from these numbers. Gasoline has dropped in price, but that is largely due to the suppression of economic activity. And yes - food is left out again - a key component that directly hits the pocket book - is left out.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Army North has mobilized active-duty Title 10 troops and equipment to assist with Hurricane Milton’s response and recovery efforts at FEMA’s request. The response force, consisting of 30 high-wheeled vehicles, 100 active duty troops, and several medium-lift helicopters, will operate out of Fort Moore, Georgia, in support of the affected areas.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
60 minutres continues to get hammered over its extensively edited (to the extent that is is falsified the interview) segment with harris.
China –
(FO) Taiwan’s government is warning that China will launch new drills near Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech on Thursday. Lai claimed in his speech that he would “uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs classified the speech as “deliberately sever[ing] the historical ties between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.”
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s Army has cut off roads and railways to South Korea and is fortifying its side of the border with barriers and landmines. The General Staff of the Korean People’s Army released a statement claiming that the measures were a response to South Korean war exercises and visits by U.S. strategic nuclear assets in the region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Zelensky reportedly is looking closer at some sort of ceasefire in response to the prospects that Trump will be elected president and support for the continuation of the fighting curtailed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attacks overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti radar missile
0/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles
41/62 Shahed drones
5 person killed, 9 wounded as result of Russian ballistic missile strike at Panama-flagged Container Ship, IMO 9216729 SHUI SPIRIT in Odesa region
(ISW) Unconfirmed but likely reports that Russian military command has ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions this fall constrain mechanized maneuver.
Poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanized and infantry maneuver, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
Russian assaults along the long Donbas front appear to have increased but do not show any increase in the use of armor, except to attempt to quickly shuttle troops to drop off sites for their assaults.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian Defense forces claimed an attack at the storage base of Shahed-type drones in Oktyabrskiy village of Krasnodar Krai(Kuban). Around 400 drones were reportedly stored there.
Ukrainian Navy R-360 Neptune cruise missiles slammed into a Russian storage facility outside of Yeysk, reportedly housing hundreds of Shahed-136 attack drones. Secondary explosions and fire reportedly continue to consume the complex.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 7 that it successfully disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Alexandrit-class (Project 12700) Alexander Obukhov minesweeper while it was docked in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast.
Around 1,300 people were evacuated in Russia after Ukrainian drones hit the “Khanskaya” military airfield in Adygea overnight. A fuel and lubricant storage facility was likely destroyed, says CPD head Kovalenko.
Outlook —
Russia continues to press its attacks, likely in response to gaining a much tactical positioning as possible prior to the Ukraine fall/winter. The ISW assessment may have some validity except that the armor necessary for large scale assaults have largely been depleted by the prolonged offensive. Secondly, in recent battalion sized attack, the Russian forces have displayed horrible tactical maneuvering, generally resulting in their armored forces being eaten up by drones and follow-on artillery.
Ukraine has been having some good luck in its deep drone war. The R-360 Neptune cruise missiles is a weapon to watch in the future, having been modified to serve land targets as well as naval ones.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu and biden spoke yesterday
- Israel security council is meeting to decide on the next step in dealing with Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US officials say that Israel refuses to reveal to the US the plan to attack Iran.
Yesterday, Netanyahu - Biden spoke for the first time in about 2 months.
Biden demanded Netanyahu not to attack the nuclear or oil facilities in Iran and claimed that the maneuver in Lebanon should be ended “as soon as possible” and strive for an agreement.
Netanyahu stood firm and replied that this is a historic opportunity that should not be missed. With regard to Lebanon, he replied that we have signed 1701 agreements and the only agreement that comes into consideration will be a sustainable agreement after Hezbollah will be severely beaten and will not be able to threaten the residents of the north and the State of Israel.
The Israeli security cabinet will meet today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack.
While both Hezbollah and Hamas still have some rockets left, current estimations suggest that they may have as few as around 10% of what they had when the war began a year ago.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is currently destroying the last Hamas strongholds in northern Gaza and has imposed a complete blockade on the Jebalia camp, where a few thousand terrorists remain. About 200,000 civilians have been ordered to evacuate south along a designated route toward the humanitarian area west of Khan Yunis. Once northern Gaza is fully cleared, the IDF will take over the responsibility of distributing humanitarian aid to the population. This will mark the end of Hamas’s civilian rule.
Sinwar apparently is still alive and has been in contact with Qatar supporters seeing some sort of amnesty in exchange for the hostages. Rumors are that is fortune stored in Qatar may be confiscated and used to eventually help rebuild Gaza, is another motivator.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continues to retreat from the front lines, leaving behind hundreds of millions worth of weapons and infrastructure. The IDF continues to strike deep into Beirut and the Beqaa Valley as well.
Hezbollah continues to launch roughly 12-18 rocket attacks per day with variable numbers of rocket. Occasionally they manage to put several dozen rockets in the air at the same time during one of these barrages. Generally total numbers of rockets launched daily is roughly 200 - 300 range.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian opposition sources report that the IDF attacked several times tonight in Syrian territory:
1. Around one hour after midnight, a center was attacked in the industrial area of Hasia’ in Homs , where “aid trucks” from Iraq destined to enter Lebanon arrive. Reported 4 injured in the attack.
(This is not the first time the IDF has attacked this industrial area in recent weeks).
2. A Syrian army post in the Hama area.
3. Weapons and ammunition warehouse of the Shia militias in Tel Mana in southern Syria .
6 Lebanese soldiers injured in Israeli raids near army checkpoint in Hawsh al-Sayyid border area with Syria
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
In Gaza, it looks like Hama’s days are numbered in the north. Suckered into thinking they could reassemble to challenge IAF, they are now encircled and facing destruction. As noted in other posts, Israel is contemplating turning N Gaza into a military zone to prevent Hamas or any other element from taking control and placing rockets that can endanger central and southern Israel again.
Hezbollah continue to pull back, avoiding decisive engagements with IAF. In doing so they are leaving substantial stockpiles of weapons and munitions behind. I am not sure if their fall back positions are equally supplied. Hezbollah was poised to fight like 2006 with a more forward defense and draw the IDF into kill zones. Israel has upended that whole plan with its current operations.
Battalion and lower leadership of Hezbollah in the south has been in places good, but the lack of higher level support is resulting in heavy losses of their officer corps as they have to be forward more to direct the defensive measures.
Israel response to Iran’s missile attack has indicators that it will be launched post Yom Kippur. A couple key markers was what I’ll call the showdown with biden and the discussion of (or lack thereof) the Israel target sets and timing. biden and the pentagon have been desiring to place their controls on the Israeli options and actions. While Israel has listened to these bleats, perhaps getting some ideas to incorporate into their plans, it appear that Netanyahu is moving forward with Israeli plans, not US.
Washington lost Israeli confidence early on in the war, by leaking plans and operational details. Lost even more when biden ordered a slowdown in the delivery of bombs and other munitions in order to force Israel into following its dictates in Gaza.
OPSEC for Israel on a matter of such key importance of a retaliatory strike against Iran is primary, and they need to maintain the silence.
Now the second indicator is that the Israeli security cabinet is meeting today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack. Netanyahu can put forth the plan, with any acceptable US requests, for final approval. With Yom Kippur two days off now, this will given the general staff time to dot the ‘i’ and cross the ’t’ of current plans and make final logistical preparations.
Target set is still speculative except that Israel is coming around again to specifically state that Iran’s nuclear sector is back on the menu. I think that Israel may attempt to take out Iranian leadership - a bold move that would be characteristic of the fight so far. Hitting and Beverly damaging Iran’s oil industry is a low hanging fruit that can easily be accomplished.
For the near future, Hamas faces further extinction in Gaza. Hezbollah strategic storage facilities in and around Beirut will be hammered as well as aggressive interdiction of resupply attempts via Syria. Ground forces continue to move northward. And final preparations for the Iranian strike.
Misc of Note –
See extensive FR postings on hurricane activity, response and damages.