Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Inflation hit a fresh three-year low in September as another drop in gasoline prices offset a rise in used car and auto insurance costs but price gains slowed less than expected and a gauge of underlying price increases picked up.
Overall consumer prices increased 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.5% in August, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a wide-ranging gauge of goods and services costs. That’s the smallest increase since February 2021 and the sixth straight pullback, leaving inflation modestly above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists polled by Bloomberg, though, expected a drop to 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, costs edged up 0.2%, in line with the previous month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched more closely by the Fed, increased 0.3%, similar to August. That nudged up yearly core inflation to 3.3% from 3.2% the prior month. Forecasters expected the core measure to hold steady.
OBSERVATIONS - Analysts think these are good numbers, but reality is far from these numbers. Gasoline has dropped in price, but that is largely due to the suppression of economic activity. And yes - food is left out again - a key component that directly hits the pocket book - is left out.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US Army North has mobilized active-duty Title 10 troops and equipment to assist with Hurricane Milton’s response and recovery efforts at FEMA’s request. The response force, consisting of 30 high-wheeled vehicles, 100 active duty troops, and several medium-lift helicopters, will operate out of Fort Moore, Georgia, in support of the affected areas.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
60 minutres continues to get hammered over its extensively edited (to the extent that is is falsified the interview) segment with harris.
China –
(FO) Taiwan’s government is warning that China will launch new drills near Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech on Thursday. Lai claimed in his speech that he would “uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs classified the speech as “deliberately sever[ing] the historical ties between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.”
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s Army has cut off roads and railways to South Korea and is fortifying its side of the border with barriers and landmines. The General Staff of the Korean People’s Army released a statement claiming that the measures were a response to South Korean war exercises and visits by U.S. strategic nuclear assets in the region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Zelensky reportedly is looking closer at some sort of ceasefire in response to the prospects that Trump will be elected president and support for the continuation of the fighting curtailed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attacks overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti radar missile
0/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles
41/62 Shahed drones
5 person killed, 9 wounded as result of Russian ballistic missile strike at Panama-flagged Container Ship, IMO 9216729 SHUI SPIRIT in Odesa region
(ISW) Unconfirmed but likely reports that Russian military command has ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions this fall constrain mechanized maneuver.
Poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanized and infantry maneuver, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
Russian assaults along the long Donbas front appear to have increased but do not show any increase in the use of armor, except to attempt to quickly shuttle troops to drop off sites for their assaults.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian Defense forces claimed an attack at the storage base of Shahed-type drones in Oktyabrskiy village of Krasnodar Krai(Kuban). Around 400 drones were reportedly stored there.
Ukrainian Navy R-360 Neptune cruise missiles slammed into a Russian storage facility outside of Yeysk, reportedly housing hundreds of Shahed-136 attack drones. Secondary explosions and fire reportedly continue to consume the complex.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 7 that it successfully disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Alexandrit-class (Project 12700) Alexander Obukhov minesweeper while it was docked in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast.
Around 1,300 people were evacuated in Russia after Ukrainian drones hit the “Khanskaya” military airfield in Adygea overnight. A fuel and lubricant storage facility was likely destroyed, says CPD head Kovalenko.
Outlook —
Russia continues to press its attacks, likely in response to gaining a much tactical positioning as possible prior to the Ukraine fall/winter. The ISW assessment may have some validity except that the armor necessary for large scale assaults have largely been depleted by the prolonged offensive. Secondly, in recent battalion sized attack, the Russian forces have displayed horrible tactical maneuvering, generally resulting in their armored forces being eaten up by drones and follow-on artillery.
Ukraine has been having some good luck in its deep drone war. The R-360 Neptune cruise missiles is a weapon to watch in the future, having been modified to serve land targets as well as naval ones.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu and biden spoke yesterday
- Israel security council is meeting to decide on the next step in dealing with Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US officials say that Israel refuses to reveal to the US the plan to attack Iran.
Yesterday, Netanyahu - Biden spoke for the first time in about 2 months.
Biden demanded Netanyahu not to attack the nuclear or oil facilities in Iran and claimed that the maneuver in Lebanon should be ended “as soon as possible” and strive for an agreement.
Netanyahu stood firm and replied that this is a historic opportunity that should not be missed. With regard to Lebanon, he replied that we have signed 1701 agreements and the only agreement that comes into consideration will be a sustainable agreement after Hezbollah will be severely beaten and will not be able to threaten the residents of the north and the State of Israel.
The Israeli security cabinet will meet today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack.
While both Hezbollah and Hamas still have some rockets left, current estimations suggest that they may have as few as around 10% of what they had when the war began a year ago.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is currently destroying the last Hamas strongholds in northern Gaza and has imposed a complete blockade on the Jebalia camp, where a few thousand terrorists remain. About 200,000 civilians have been ordered to evacuate south along a designated route toward the humanitarian area west of Khan Yunis. Once northern Gaza is fully cleared, the IDF will take over the responsibility of distributing humanitarian aid to the population. This will mark the end of Hamas’s civilian rule.
Sinwar apparently is still alive and has been in contact with Qatar supporters seeing some sort of amnesty in exchange for the hostages. Rumors are that is fortune stored in Qatar may be confiscated and used to eventually help rebuild Gaza, is another motivator.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continues to retreat from the front lines, leaving behind hundreds of millions worth of weapons and infrastructure. The IDF continues to strike deep into Beirut and the Beqaa Valley as well.
Hezbollah continues to launch roughly 12-18 rocket attacks per day with variable numbers of rocket. Occasionally they manage to put several dozen rockets in the air at the same time during one of these barrages. Generally total numbers of rockets launched daily is roughly 200 - 300 range.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian opposition sources report that the IDF attacked several times tonight in Syrian territory:
1. Around one hour after midnight, a center was attacked in the industrial area of Hasia’ in Homs , where “aid trucks” from Iraq destined to enter Lebanon arrive. Reported 4 injured in the attack.
(This is not the first time the IDF has attacked this industrial area in recent weeks).
2. A Syrian army post in the Hama area.
3. Weapons and ammunition warehouse of the Shia militias in Tel Mana in southern Syria .
6 Lebanese soldiers injured in Israeli raids near army checkpoint in Hawsh al-Sayyid border area with Syria
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
In Gaza, it looks like Hama’s days are numbered in the north. Suckered into thinking they could reassemble to challenge IAF, they are now encircled and facing destruction. As noted in other posts, Israel is contemplating turning N Gaza into a military zone to prevent Hamas or any other element from taking control and placing rockets that can endanger central and southern Israel again.
Hezbollah continue to pull back, avoiding decisive engagements with IAF. In doing so they are leaving substantial stockpiles of weapons and munitions behind. I am not sure if their fall back positions are equally supplied. Hezbollah was poised to fight like 2006 with a more forward defense and draw the IDF into kill zones. Israel has upended that whole plan with its current operations.
Battalion and lower leadership of Hezbollah in the south has been in places good, but the lack of higher level support is resulting in heavy losses of their officer corps as they have to be forward more to direct the defensive measures.
Israel response to Iran’s missile attack has indicators that it will be launched post Yom Kippur. A couple key markers was what I’ll call the showdown with biden and the discussion of (or lack thereof) the Israel target sets and timing. biden and the pentagon have been desiring to place their controls on the Israeli options and actions. While Israel has listened to these bleats, perhaps getting some ideas to incorporate into their plans, it appear that Netanyahu is moving forward with Israeli plans, not US.
Washington lost Israeli confidence early on in the war, by leaking plans and operational details. Lost even more when biden ordered a slowdown in the delivery of bombs and other munitions in order to force Israel into following its dictates in Gaza.
OPSEC for Israel on a matter of such key importance of a retaliatory strike against Iran is primary, and they need to maintain the silence.
Now the second indicator is that the Israeli security cabinet is meeting today to vote on the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack. Netanyahu can put forth the plan, with any acceptable US requests, for final approval. With Yom Kippur two days off now, this will given the general staff time to dot the ‘i’ and cross the ’t’ of current plans and make final logistical preparations.
Target set is still speculative except that Israel is coming around again to specifically state that Iran’s nuclear sector is back on the menu. I think that Israel may attempt to take out Iranian leadership - a bold move that would be characteristic of the fight so far. Hitting and Beverly damaging Iran’s oil industry is a low hanging fruit that can easily be accomplished.
For the near future, Hamas faces further extinction in Gaza. Hezbollah strategic storage facilities in and around Beirut will be hammered as well as aggressive interdiction of resupply attempts via Syria. Ground forces continue to move northward. And final preparations for the Iranian strike.
Misc of Note –
See extensive FR postings on hurricane activity, response and damages.
I am ashamed of the unmitigated arrogance of the politicians in government who think they have the authority to demand that people answer to them and comply with their demands.
The US has ZERO authority over Israel and its business and Israel, at this point, owes the US NOTHING in intelligence that will be shared with the enemy.
Thank God Netanyahu is standing strong against all the pressure being put on him by those who are only going to betray him and Israel.
Netanyahu is easily the most intelligent leader in the world.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
it turns out the ISIS fan who threatened to carry out a terrorist attack on Election Day had been a CIA asset.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The weekly count of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped to its highest level in more than a year, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) reported Thursday.
For the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 225,000, according to the latest DOL report:
“This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023 when it was 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,250.”
Last week’s initial jobless claims came in about thirty thousand higher than analysts had expected.
The September report is the latest sign that the job market is weakening, as the Associated Press noted Thursday:
“The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 42,000 to about 1.86 million for the week of Sept. 28, the most since late July.
“In August, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March this year than were originally reported. The revised total was also considered evidence that the job market has been slowing steadily, compelling the Fed to start cutting interest rates.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/jobless-claims-jump-highest-level-more-year
OBSERVATION - This is a contra indicator showing that the economy is not as rosy as the regime and its number skewing minions like to show. These numbers are what the public actually ‘feel’ and impress how well or poor the economy is going. Job market declines are opposite what a robust economy would produce.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Vice President Kamala Harris said Tuesday that she can’t think of a single thing she would’ve done differently the past three and a half years if she’d been president instead of Joe Biden - and this isn’t the first time.
“If anything, would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?” Co-host Sunny Hostin asked during Harris’ appearance on “The View.”
“There is not a thing that comes to mind. And I’ve been part of most of the decisions that have had impact,” V.P. Harris replied, claiming partial credit for President Biden’s choices.
OBSERVATION - Even in front of a friendly crowd, harris manages to screw it all up. Going from fixing everything wrong now to openly acknowledging that she had a hand in creating the mess in the first place.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris was caught using two teleprompters during her “Town Hall” at Univision.
OBSERVATION - Her recent blitz of ‘interviews’ to shrug off the accusation of hiding from questions has backfired in a major way.
Illegal Immigration –
Local officials in Logansport, Indiana are sounding the alarm on the huge influx of migrants causing a strain on the local school systems.
Hundreds of migrant minors are being enrolled in the local schools. The Haitian student population alone has increased 1378% since 2021.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
An unspecified senior US defense official stated on October 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 29 of 66 Shahed-type strike drones over Ukraine overnight, 31 lost, 2 returned to Russia, 4 is still flying.
NOTE - They’ve been reporting “lost” drones for a little while now. Not sure of how they are defining that.
Russian ballistic missile struck in Odesa region last evening.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Ostrivske village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Crimean front —
Another fuel reservoir exploded at burning oil depot in Feodosiya, occupied Crimea. This facility has been burning for over 5 days now.
Outlook —
Noticed reported Russian casualties have gone down from their highs from over the past couple months. This would suggest Russian activity has decreased, rather than increased as suggested in previous post. Too early to say if the seasonal weather change is the cause or Russian just running out of troops and supplies. As noted under Russia above, it is estimated that Russia has lost 600,000 in less than the three yeas of this war. One can extend that to equivalent losses of equipment as well. These losses have put a lot of pressure to maintain recruitment levels which have impacted their economy by removing workers from many sectors. Territory gained in Ukraine has come at a great cost to Russia.
Monitoring for potential changes in the ground action.
Still expecting Russian major missile barrage.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Continued ground operations is S Lebanon
- Large airstrikes near Khan Yunis.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Some of the largest airstrikes in a while, targeting areas east of Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF breached sections of Lebanon border fence at unexpected spots to surprise Hezbollah, enabling forces to directly enter Lebanese villages. Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in area pushed further away from border, can no longer target Israel with direct fire.
Unconfirmed reports that in another strike in Beirut, Israel has eliminated Mohammad Raad - a Lebanese politician of the Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militia Hezbollah, who serves as member of parliament.
Hezbollah rockets target the Haifa area, with no significant affect.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raid targets Al-Qasr town crossing in Homs countryside near Lebanese border
Israeli raid on Matraba area on Lebanese-Syrian border in Bekaa Valley, eastern Lebanon
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Kataib Hezbollah (KH) Commander Abu Ali Al-Askari issued a direct threat against the United States. KH is a U.S.-designated anti-American Shiite militia operating in Iraq with ancillary operations in Syria.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Spanish PM: International community must stop arms exports to Israel
Lebanon’s representative to the Security Council: We support the US-French initiative for a 21-day ceasefire
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Yom Kippur is tomorrow, so an Israeli strike on Iran could occur as soon as the weekend. Rhetoric from Netanyahu, as well as govt and military sources indicate that his discussions with biden did little to change his mind on what targets to hit. If they did alter his plans, he is not letting on to that, nor does it look like there are any leaks from DC on that as well.
Iran has issued several warnings to Gulf nations that they will retaliated against them should there be any appearance of support to Israel. This is a very valid threat as most of the Gulf nations are opposed to Iran on religious grounds, as well as political. If Iran carried out any of the threats, the region would break into a war who’s first target will be the oil industry in the gulf. This would cause prices to skyrocket as there would be global shortages. Saudi Arabia in particular has been gradually preparing its forces in the event of a conflict with Iran and would likely be the largest target by Iran.
Analysis of Israeli operations in S Lebanon indicate that Israel learned its lessons from the 2006 war, utilizing maneuver and surprise to negate the ATGM traps Hezbollah used successfully. Since Oct 7, Hezbollah has fired ATGMs into Israel, targeting a wide range of objectives. This initial push by Israel has moved the potential firing locations both out of range as well as out of line of sight for those ATGMs.
In Gaza, Israel continues to liquidate remnants of Hamas and its allies in N Gaza. Action hasn’t been limited to that area alone, as air/artillery strikes continue throughout the strip.
Near term - Israeli counter strike on Iran, probably before the end of the weekend.
Iran –
There is a soap opera of sorts surrounding Esmail Qaani, Head of Iran’s Quds Forces, who reportedly had a heart attack while being interrogated for the suspicion of being an Israeli agent. He had been located with Hashem Saffiedine, Nasrallah’s potential successor, when Israel attacked the bunker he was in. Qaani was reportedly taken into custody by the IRGC and was undergoing interrogation.
Other unconfirmed reports are that the Iranian agent that was interrogating him at the time has now been arrested as possibly being a member of the Mossad as well. The level of panic is deep within Iran’s ruling class.
***
Again, Iran threatened Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar not to allow Israel to attack Iran through their territory or airspace
Misc of Note –
The run-up to the election is a potentially very hazardous period for stuff to go sideways very fast. But there is another time frame that is potentially a lot more dangerous. That is the period between the election day and inauguration.
A trump win may well trigger a desperate attempt by the regime to go all out and prevent the inauguration. This ranges from efforts not to certify the election, to an imposition of a “national emergency” of some sort - potentially triggered by rioting illegals - to declare martial law. Another effort could be an attempt to arrest and jail trump - in some attempt to void the results of the election. And Just as after 2016, the democrats will unleash Antifa et al to cause violence and destruction.
I do not underestimate the potential desperation of the democrats at the prospect of losing power in DC.
Similar, but slightly different dynamics in the event of a harris win, especially if there are potential cheating involved. I can expect the govt to move to arrest republicans and leaders of potential opposition groups - similar to third world and communist countries. Any opposition could face brutal crackdowns which could cause the fissure to open wide between red and blue.
Even the above is very simple - the matrix is maxed out as far as the chaos that could ensue post election. We have to spiritually, mentally and physically prepare for the worst and pray for the best.