Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
It's very strange what's happening.
I'm guessing Kamala will be Biden's replacement because she's squishy between the legs (she's a woman - even if I'm not a biologist) and her skin is black enough for the black women's vote. (she's 'of color') Plus Kamala can follow Obama's direction as well or better than Biden. And the corrupt FBI and CIA will 'goon' for her. The only other option is Obama's wife - and for reasons that are good and bad she won't throw her life away to fail. So, Michelle won't run. She's out.
What else does Kamala need?
The press. The biased press will discover Kamala's brilliant and capable and that anyone who speaks against her is racist... And for icing on the cake 51 'intelligence' thugs will vouch for Kamala's brilliance...
According to my analysis, every Biden's decision on foreign policy within the last 42 years that he has held a government post, has been wrong .!
Also, he has NOT REFILLED the Strategic Petroleum Reserves yet, despite his earlier promise to do so.
Aircraft, tanks, ships at sea, and transport vehicles do not power these machines by solar power yet, ..so we are being set-up for a defensive military failure.
You do know what that systematic, intentional failure is called,.. right ?
Economy –
The biden regime is stuggling to cut off a potential Big 3 auto strike in the coming weeks that could end up coinciding with a govt shut down.
Chances that the govt will have to go into shut down mode are increasing as the Republican Freedom Caucus continues to press for accountability in various budget bills.
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Furniture retailers are seeing sales slow as experts claim America’s cooling housing market means fewer shoppers are purchasing sofas.
OBSERVATION - The ongoing housing market crash is increasingly affecting other peripheral markets.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Dean Obeidallah, a SiriusXM radio host and columnist for MSNBC, insisted Friday that Trump “must die in prison” to set an example for the public and protect democracy.
He made the comments after his guest, Mediaite reporter Tommy Christopher, brought up the alleged double standard of nobody taking issue with Nikki Haley making controversial insinuations about Biden.
Haley, a 2024 Republican presidential candidate, had suggested in a July interview with Fox News that the 80-year-old Biden, because of his old age, could die in office.
In response, Christopher queried how conservatives would react if Biden said Trump could die in prison if he potentially goes to jail for one or more of his indictments.
But Obeidallah went a step further – contending that Trump “must” die in prison.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-2024-primary-prison/2023/09/11/id/1134066/
OBSERVATION - This desire for the death of Trump continues to grow from the left. It doesn’t matter how, just that it happens. This continues to open up the potential of a leftist actually attempting to kill Trump. A very real danger and one that could blow the top off the current restraint by the right.
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The NM governor triples down - New Mexico Governor in a message to sheriff who believes her carry ban is unconstitutional: “I don’t need a lecture on constitutionality from Sheriff Allen: what I need is action... We’ve given you the tools, Sheriff Allen— now stop being squeamish about using them.”
Terrorism -
A POLITICO report of federal data and interviews with a dozen security, extremism and electricity experts revealed a record surge in attacks on the grid nationwide. However, the report claims that law enforcement and utilities are not combining efforts to effectively track these attacks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On going NATO exercises in the Baltic region - reportedly the largest since the end of the cold war.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
NY state appealed a recently struck down law - “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” that allowed them to illegally lock up or lock down persons without any proof you were sick, and without any due process protections.
OBSERVATION - Remarkably, the tyrannical powers that be do not want to give up powers they thought they acquired during the plandemic. NY gov Hochul is one of the leaders of these leftists. In this case - one allowing for quarantine camps for alleged wuhan sufferers or more specifically - those who refused to take the jab.
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The new Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 injections have been approved by the FDA. Full-approval was given to inject into arms of people over 12-years-old and Emergency Use Authorization covers them for jabbing babies as young as six-months-old.
The new jabs are NOT designed for the current dominant variants. These jabs were built for the XBB.1.5 subvariant, which has basically died out.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey. Plus the EUA continues to grant them immunity from lawsuits from injuries caused by the jabs.
BTW, this announcement essentially acknowledges that previous vaccine versions were ineffective.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is expected to endorse a formal impeachment inquiry against President Biden during a closed-door meeting with the Republican Conference on Thursday, 14 September.
OBSERVATION - McCarthy is seen as dragging his feet on the impeachment issue. Be it because he is scared by the deep state or just has no fight in him - considering there is already a big fight over the budget brewing that he seems to be on the verge of capitulating on - non-action has been the name of his game.
Biden / Harris Watch –
First time in 22 years the president has not been commemorating 9/11 at the sites either in PA, pentagon or NYC.
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On Sept 11 The Biden administration has agreed to a deal with the state of Iran. The deal will swap 5 American hostages for 5 Iranian prisoners, and will also release $6 billion for Iran.
Many experts are calling this a huge mistake as it’ll give Iran the impression that the Biden admin will pay large ransoms every time the take hostages.
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BIDEN: “Ground Zero in New York — I remember standing there the next day and looking at the building. I felt like I was looking through the gates of hell.”
On September 12, 2001, Biden was in Washington, D.C., for a Senate session.
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Some potential dot connecting.
In 2020, there were discussions about the possibility of Harris eventually replacing Biden. The timetable for this seemed to accelerate when the DNC didn’t expect to lose the House.
On a recent Sunday, The New York Times, known for leaks favorable to the DNC, published an article on Biden’s approval ratings and Harris expressing readiness to take over as president.
Even Gavin Newsom voiced support for Harris.
Biden has essentially begun to vacation in place and his gaff filled public appearances are not being edited or apparently controlled by his controllers - see recent G20 - Vietnam - Alaska 9/11 appearances.
Are we seeing the initial stages of biden being forced to bow out?
Illegal Immigration –
Of the city services being hit with budget cuts in order to pay for housing illegals, the NYC PD is getting hit the hardest. Already understaffed due to several years of it officers being attacked by the city and leaving, overtime has been slashed. This right when crime by illegals is starting to spike.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Russian Rosgvardia (national guard) may be recruiting previously imprisoned former Wagner Group fighters, likely to further subsume Wagner remnants while bolstering Russia’s domestic security apparatus.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
RUMINT –
While it has been confirmed that Britain is flying air cap over shipping to/from Ukraine. The unconfirmed word out is that this was due to Russia targeting a civilian cargo ship on the Black Sea. On August 24, Russia allegedly fired 2 Kalibr missiles at a Liberian-flagged cargo ship
Ukraine was able to neutralize Russia’s missile strikes by Odesa based ADA assets
Thus a casus belli for Britain’s enhanced monitoring mission of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s ports and weaponization of grain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine continues to make small advances in its various fronts. Details continue to be relatively foggy. Ukraine defense forces have success to the South and South-East to Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 12 Shaheds and another unspecified drone. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 11 that Russian forces are changing tactics and using drones “en masse.”
NOTE - The term “en masse” may refer to the attempt to have the drones strike at the same time, in order to locally overwhelm the defenses.
OUTLOOK –
Continued ‘fog of war’ conditions continue but info breaking through suggests that Russian forces are increasingly strained not only the main Ukraine assault axes but in other sectors as well.
It seems the practice of Ukraine seizing ground, digging in and demolishing Russian counter attacks - though slow - is effectively degrading the Russian forces capabilities.
Belarus -
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on September 11 that Belarus plans to create its own private military company (PMC) out of Wagner Group fighters who remained in Belarus.
Europe / NATO General –
EU: There will be consequences for holding elections in the new territories of Russia
“The European Union does not recognize and will not recognize the holding of these so-called elections, nor their results. The political leadership of Russia and those involved in organizing them will face the consequences of these illegal actions,” said the high representative of the European Union for foreign policy, Josep Borel
Israel –
Israel’s national security advisor said today that “the prime minister made it clear to all world leaders that if we detect uranium enrichment above 60% then Israel will have no choice but to act” against Iran.
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Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reveals Iran has established an airfield in southern Lebanon. Expect Israeli air strikes to neutralize in the near future.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Start of the Armenian-American military exercises “Eagle Partner” involving 85 U.S. and 175 Armenian soldiers in Armenia.
Kremlin officials are quite upset calling the current Armenian administration “two-faced”.
OBSERVATION - Anything goes if these US forces are targeted by Azeri forces. Armenia’s exercises with the US illustrate the degree that they feel they’ve been abandoned by Russia and are seeking more help to fend off the Azeri forces.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Niger’s new military junta accused France of building up a military invasion force in the West African ECOWAS political bloc countries. The junta’s spokesman said France had deployed military aircraft and armored vehicles in nearby Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin.
OBSERVATION - Tensions still high and likely that conflict will occur as some time in the near future. How invested will France be is the question. Some see their ‘negotiations’ over removal of its forces stationed in Niger as foot dragging to keep these forces in place to assist the eventual assault on Niger.
Normally, I'd say send the FBI to talk with him, but with today's FBI, I'd be scared they'd collude on a plan.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The California legislature passed a bill Friday that would threaten parents with losing custody of their children if they question their child’s supposed desire to undergo disfiguring hormone regimens or surgeries to appear more like the opposite sex. The legislation is now headed to the desk of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is expected to sign it.
OBSERVATION - Communist control of children and the separation of them from their parents has been a common practice over the years. Under the current, demonically inspired ‘trans’ fad, these children grabbers / groomers have seized the moment in radical leftist states to start legally punishing parents for protecting and raising their kids contrary to the demands of the state. As noted over at least the past year, this drive by the left has not been without pushback, but in Kalifornia, the heavy hand of the leftists will do what it wants. This only widens the blue / red cultural gap.
On a globalist aspect - decimation of the family unit is essential for their goals - part of a multifaceted effort to control the population, starting with children as a lever to control adults. Hence, similar efforts in other countries to forcibly remove children from parents.
Economy –
Median household income fell by 2.3% in 2022 on an inflation-adjusted basis, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday.
The report, which is released on an annual basis and is taken from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, shows real median incomes falling for the third year in a row. Median household incomes peaked at $78,250 in 2019, the year before the pandemic. They declined in 2022 to $74,580, a year that saw inflation soar, undercutting household purchasing power.
OBSERVATION - Its been all downhill under biden’s regime. This places the country in general in danger if the recession is deep.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The NM AG is not going to defend Gov Grisham’s gun edict in court. Essentially defaulting to the many lawsuits that have sprung up in the past days.
OBSERVATION - The massive lack of support for Grisham (with the minor exception by Arizona democrats) has ripped their whole anti-gun platform apart in many ways. It will be interesting to see what further damage to NM and gun grabber goals these lawsuits will bring to bear.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Air Force will fall short of its active-duty recruiting goals this year, something that has not happened in more than two decades, Secretary Frank Kendall said.
“We’re almost to the end of the fiscal year, and the expectation is we’re going to come in short about 10%,” Kendall told Military.com on Monday, adding that the service plans to address long-standing recruiting problems so it doesn’t happen again in 2024.
OBSERVATION - The biden regime has made it clear through its military leadership choices that it despises red state America - the very demographic that our military services have routinely counted on to fill out its ranks. Why place your life on the line for a govt that hates your values and in many ways considers you to be a domestic terror threat - especially when you’ve completed your service.
As a veteran I cannot recommend military service anymore to anyone. I’m not the only one either.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Scientists from Duke-NUS Medical School and elsewhere have identified several novel strains of swine flu viruses circulating in Cambodian pigs that pose a potential pandemic risk. The new strains include viruses that have jumped from humans to pigs and some strains with genes that originate from North America.
OBSERVATION - For the many that believe (with some good justification) that the wuhan plandemic was engineered, here is a new tool with a virus that has in the past demonstrated greater threat of death.
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A U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advisory panel on Tuesday called for a broad use of the updated COVID-19 vaccines approved by the government - covering ages 6 months and up - paving the way for a broad use of the shots in a vaccination campaign due to begin within days.
The shots are part of a push by public health officials to align the next COVID vaccines more closely with the actual circulating variant of the virus, much as annual flu shots are designed. A vaccination campaign is expected to be kicked off in the coming days.
OBSERVATION - These jabs are targeting old versions of wuhan for starters, nothing for the current scary variants.
The U.S. government ended the COVID public health emergency declaration in May and handed over the responsibility for vaccinations to the private sector. However, this latest authorization maintains the EUA - in spite of there being no longer an “emergency”.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Beltway rumors are that McCarthy’s move on impeachment is designed to motivate Freedom Caucus members to come on line and support the Continuing Resolution. Initial evidence suggests that this move has not convinced them to drop their budget cut demands.
Additionally, House leadership is expected to unveil a short-term plan to fund the government ahead of a possible October 1 shutdown, that will include Ukraine and disaster funding as well as a path to passing all 12 appropriations bills.
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The deep state is increasingly aiming their guns on Musk with a broad spectrum of attacks - from the FTC to the FAA to calls of having him arrested for treason, etc. Much like Kennedy, his moderate positions are abhorrent to the left and his movement of restoring X (the site formerly known as Twitter) back to the middle with equal footing for both the left and the right.
Biden / Harris Watch –
While biden was hiding in Alaska, harris was making an a$$ of herself at 9/11 ceremonies in NY.
Illegal Immigration –
Growing violence by predominantly black and middle eastern ‘migrants’ into europe is finally getting European govt attention. Migrant mobs isolating and beating predominately white europeans is now common place.
Similar black on white violence here in the US. The ‘migrant’ aspect is yet to appear. Could be that in dark blue metro areas, the blacks are pushing back because they are losing priority to govt handouts to the migrants. This could set up a scenario of blacks vs illegals in the future.
Given that, the overwhelming anti-europeans bent of European migrants will hit the US eventually. The vast majority of the illegals coming here are military aged males coming from cultures where they are used to using violence to get their way.
China –
Yesterday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported 20 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels and 22 aircraft incursions around the island. This comes after American and Canadian ships transited the Taiwan Strait on Saturday.
Included in this flurry of activity is the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong sailing toward the western Pacific Ocean to the southeast of Taiwan on Monday for training, Taiwan’s military said.
OBSERVATON - Part of China’s ongoing escalation of incursions in response to US/western actions. See Japan below for more.
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U.S. and Philippines armed forces are jointly upgrading an airport and naval airbase on the Philippines’ northernmost island next to Taiwan.
OBSERVATION - This is part of the recent agreement between the US and Philippines. The Philippines is concerned about Chinese attempts to seize islands clearly within its exclusion zone and the hope is that US military presence will help deter that. Also naval upgrades are underway to service US ships.
North/South Korea –
Putin and Kim Jong-un met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome. Kim was very interested in the missile technology.
NK also fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward East Sea - South Korean military
OBSERVATION - putin is desperate for ammo sources comparable with his systems. Kim has a boat load - though reliability is highly questionable. Also continued rumors that putin wants NK troops on/near the battle lines, possibly the Russian / Ukraine border to free up Russian forces there for the fight in the east and south.
Japan –
Japan’s military said six Chinese destroyers and two Chinese frigates were spotted on Monday morning close to Japan and monitored as they sailed southeast between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako into the Pacific Ocean.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
At least 5 trains suspected of transporting Russian nuclear warheads (or associated parts/components/equipment) have recently arrived in Belarus, to Baranovichi-Polesskiye and Luninets stations. 3 more trains are expected to Prudok in October/November.
Economic Impact –
Four Russian regions in the first half of 2023 faced a double-digit drop in tax revenues to local budgets. This data is provided by experts of the Gaidar Institute in their report on the financial condition of the Russian Federation’s regions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
It was a wild night with a lot of drone activity, and this round went soundly for Ukraine. Russia targeted the Odessa region, with 32 drones were shot down, there are also damage to port infrastructure, 7 person wounded.
Ukraine hit, using yet unspecified rockets, Russia’s main Black sea fleet shipbuilding and maintenance plant, SevMorZavod in Sevastopol. Russia claims to have taken down 7 of 10 missiles, but that may be propaganda as substantial damage was caused to the dry dock facility there. And bonus - The Russian MOD confirmed that two ships undergoing repairs at the Sevastopol Shipyard drydocks were damaged in a Ukrainian strike this morning. According to Russian media sources the Ropucha Class Landing Ship “Minsk” and the “Rostov-on-Don”, a Kilo Class submarine, were damaged.
History - the Minsk was damaged over a month ago by a seaborne Ukraine drone. The strike on the “Rostov-on-Don” is actually a bigger matter as it is (was) an improved Kilo class sub capable of launching Kaliber missiles. Russia has only 4 such subs in the Black Sea and this attack reduced that capability by 25%.
Morning assessment is that the dry dock facilities are pretty much shredded out and will be unusable for a considerable time. The extent and success of the attack has placed Russia’s entire port facilities under the gun. As a major port repair facility, Russia’s ability to service its Black Sea fleet has suffered a serious blow.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian defense forces have partial success near Robotyne Further reports of significant Russian counter attacks that have failed to dislodge Ukraine forces.
Bakhmut Axis -
S of Bakhmut, Ukraine forces are currently sweeping Klishchiivka of Russian forces and it is expected the General Staff will announce its liberation shortly. This places remaining Russian forces in Bakhmut in increasing peril.
Russian Territory –
Explosions and fire near the Ostankino Tower in Moscow .
Cellular connection equipment was damaged as result of arson attack in St.Petersburg, suspect detained.
OUTLOOK –
While the war on the ground grinds on with continued measured Ukrainian success, the overnight strike on the Sevastopol naval facilities was the culmination of a number of Ukrainian strategic attacks that has created a big blind spot in the Russian defense network for Crimea. Though seemingly small - Ukraine has picked apart Russian radar defenses and the main S400 missile defense set up along the coast. Building upon the recapture of Snake island last year - Ukraine seizing its oil platforms has been critical in further blinding Russian intelligence / early warning assets in the Black Sea.
Successful Ukrainian attacks earlier this year have forced Russian naval assets bo move southward to the Sevastopol base to try to get out of range of Ukrainian assets. now Russian faces a new, dire decision - expend a lot of resources to bolster air defense around Sevastopol as well as other regions in Crimea - against increasingly effective Ukrainian attacks or pull back its assets further to the east to ports in Russia. These ports have been shown not to be immune to Ukrainian sea drone attacks.
Threats to primary Russian sea launched missile assets and operational areas are now even more serious. Should Ukraine arm the oil platforms with adequate ADA assets as well as their Neptune anti ship missiles, operational areas that were favorable to Russia will be denied.
Russia is clearly losing this war. On the ground, in the air and now definitely in the Black Sea.
Europe / NATO General –
From 10 a.m. on September 13, Estonia prohibits the entry into the country of vehicles with license plates of the Russian Federation. Information was officially confirmed by the Estonian Foreign Ministry
Iran –
State dept says the US will be watching the Iranian funds transferred to Qatar closely to make sure they are only spent on humanitarian goods and will “have the ability to freeze them again if we need to.”
Iranian leadership has come out and said they will spend the money as they see fit and not according to ‘humanitarian” reasons.
OBSERVATION - This whole payment scheme only declares US weakness that Iran will exploit. They haven’t honored their word in the past and there is not reason not to doubt their statements that this 6 billion will only be used for humanitarian purposes.
Iraq -
Iraq FM is expected to visit Iran tomorrow on Wednesday as the deadline on the implementation of the Baghdad-Tehran security agreement on Iraqi Kurdistan region nears. Iraq FM will visit Iran tomorrow on Wednesday. Bilateral relations, regional and int’l issues are expected to be discussed in his visit to Tehran. The visit transpires as September 19 deadline regarding Tehran-Baghdad security agreement on Iraqi Kurdistan region looms
OBSERVATION - Iranian influenced Iraqi govt is drawing closer to cooperation because the US is losing influence in the region.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
The Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire using small arms at Armenian positions located in the Srashen sector (Syunik region), reports the Armenian Ministry of Defense.
OBSERVATION - These kinds of skirmishes have been on and off over the past several weeks now.
Misc of Note –
Midweek and a direct U.S. landfall from Hurricane Lee is not expected as of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory and instead, the forecast calls for Lee to hit Canada (and possibly Maine). But on Monday, land was included in Lee’s forecast cone for the first time in the storm’s history.
Lee is anticipated to shift towards the north-northwest later today. This will be followed by a northward turn and an acceleration in its speed on Thursday and Friday, September 14 and 15. Based on current projections, the hurricane’s center will bypass Bermuda to the west on Thursday and Thursday night. By the end of the week, it is expected to approach the coastlines of New England or Atlantic Canada.
While some weakening of the hurricane is forecasted over the next few days, Lee is projected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 185 km (115 miles) from its center, with tropical storm-force winds reaching out to 390 km (240 miles).
OBSERVATION - Keep situationally alert as things can change in short order.
OBSERVATION - Communist control of children and the separation of them from their parents has been a common practice over the years. Under the current, demonically inspired ‘trans’ fad, these children grabbers / groomers have seized the moment in radical leftist states to start legally punishing parents for protecting and raising their kids contrary to the demands of the state. As noted over at least the past year, this drive by the left has not been without pushback, but in Kalifornia, the heavy hand of the leftists will do what it wants. This only widens the blue / red cultural gap.
The days of summer are quickly slipping into fall here in the Redoubt. Critical watch underway on when the first frost will strike. Mrs Z’s cherry tomato bush is loaded down with grape like clusters of wonderfulness that have just started to turn red. Other crops on the verge as well. We are prepared to erect the plastic greenhouse coverings, but our days are numbered. A few more weeks at best before the hard freezes come in that our plastic green houses cannot defend against.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Group of 20 leaders have agreed to a plan to eventually impose digital currencies and digital IDs on their respective populations, despite fears that governments will use them to monitor their peoples’ spending and crush dissent.
The G20, which is currently under India’s presidency, adopted a final declaration on the subject over the weekend in New Delhi.
The meeting, which included the world’s leading economies, announced last week that they had agreed to build the necessary infrastructure to implement digital currencies and IDs.
OBSERVATION - This news has been out there for a few days. The implementation of digital currency and ID’s appears to be focused on a fast track to take place some time in 2024. Global impacts will likely be high with a lot of resistance particularly to digital currency. Here in the US, both will likely cause increased turmoil as the nation will already be embroiled in a presidential election cycle and the aftermath.
This crisis will be one which the WEF et al tries to take advantage of to further its goals. The digital effort will be forcibly emplaced - how much pushback remains to be seen. Potentially another crisis - perhaps false flag event - could be used to accelerate this goal.
Economy –
For the second straight month, overall consumer prices rose month-over-month at the fastest pace in 14 months in August, and while that was driven largely by a 10.5% jump in gasoline prices over the last month. It rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.The CPI now stands at 3.7%.
Rent inflation still stands at 7.8% and shelter inflation stands at 7.3%.
Many of the items that people use every day are still seeing inflation rates well above 5%.
OBSERVATION - Economists are expecting the fed to raise the prime rate again at their next meeting. However, that will have little to do with the rising gasoline prices, being driven by OPEC+, but will likely damage the economy even more, increasing the potential for a hard crash landing recession.
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Speaking of oil prices. The U.S. Energy Department has talked to oil producers and refiners to ensure stable fuel supplies at a time of rising gasoline prices, Jared Bernstein, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on Wednesday.
“The Energy Department is in touch with producers and refiners to resolve any issues and to try to ensure stable supply,” Bernstein told reporters on Wednesday.
Officials from President Joe Biden’s administration reached out last week to oil industry companies to assess inventory levels and learn of any planned shutdowns of refineries, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary oil output cuts to the end of the year, a U.S. refining source involved in the talks told Reuters.
“The White House wants to make sure everyone is focused here on potentialities for systemic disruptions that could create a supply problem,” said the source, who is not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions.
Gasoline prices jumped 10.6% in August after climbing 0.2% in July, accounting for more than half the increase in the Consumer Price Index.
OBSERVATION - Consider that the regime just canceled (some claim illegally) oil leases in Alaska, combined with the draining of the SPR to near emptiness and other restrictions designed to kill the oil industry, such a call out to producers reeks of massive hypocrisy.
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Forty percent (40%) of the Global Supply Chain came to a halt today as the Panama Canal shut down. Ships are presently stuck on both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sides of the canal because the lake, which supplies the locks between the two oceans, has suffered a drought and can no longer fill the locks to allow ships to sail through the canal.
Because of the severely reduced freshwater supply, Ships are being ordered to travel with 40% less weight to deal with less water. The Panama government said these restrictions will last at least 10 MORE MONTHS.
OBSERVATION - I noted the problems with the canal and the drought some months ago. It appear now that the situation has gotten worse. This will hit not only the US but global economies with supply shortages and increased costs. This will force ships to travel around South America - increasing fuel and shipping costs and time.
Price increases from shipping will not be stopped by fed rate increases, but made worse.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The White House is sending the letter to news outlets like CNN, The New York Times, and Fox News. It urges (directs) them to “ramp up their scrutiny” of House Republicans “for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies.” That’s the popular talking point – the alleged impeachable conduct by Biden are all just lies. There is no evidence.
OBSERVATION - They aren’t even trying to hide this anymore. This falls on the heels of a 5th Circuit court ruling. In its decision released Friday, the court cites several instances in which the federal government “coerced” or “significantly encouraged” social media platforms to censor content the government didn’t like. Both actions constitute a violation of the First Amendment.
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A federal judge in New Mexico has issued a restraining order blocking Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s 30-day gun ban.
OBSERVATION - Even a blind man could see this decision coming. Grisham was abandoned by even the most ardent anti-gunners with her declaration. The question remains will she face any accountability. This restraining order may provide enough cover for the NM democrat-controlled legislature to avoid impeachment proceedings.
Illegal Immigration –
Border crossings continue to increase as cooler weather comes to the south. Blue “sanctuary” cities are crying momma over the influx of illegals - swamping their social support systems. This next year things can get real ugly with continued uncontrolled immigration.
China –
The Australian and Philippine governments formally agreed to begin joint patrols in the South China Sea (SCS). This is in part due to recent Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal.
OBSERVATION - China has put increasing pressure on Philippine Islands in the SCS. Things may escalate into actual shooting between elements.
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See Venezuela below on new agreements
***
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group is operating in the Philippine Sea, being shadowed separately by Republic of China Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers, according to both countries.
Japan’s Joint Staff Office of the Ministry of Defense issued a release stating that at 8 a.m. Wednesday, the Shandong CSG was 403 miles south of Miyako Island, with a map showing the CSG closer to Luzon in the Philippines than to Japan or Taiwan. The CSG consisted of six ships: carrier CNS Shandong (17), destroyers CNS Guilin (164) and CNS Changsha (173), frigates CNS Xianning (500) and CNS Xuchang (536) and fleet oiler CNS Chaganhu (905). The carrier conducted launches and recovery of both fighter aircraft and helicopters, according to the release, which also stated that destroyer JS Ariake (DD-109) was shadowing the CSG.
OBSERVATION - China has been increasing its carrier ops and coordinated maneuvering with other combat vessels. While it is generally agreed that the Shandong doesn’t come close the capabilities of US Carriers, China is looking to project force outside the range of its land based aircraft and onto smaller islands in the region that have limited or no defensive capacities.
North/South Korea –
See Russia below on reciprocal visit of putin to NK.
Japan –
See China above monitoring naval movements.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to visit North Korea, Pyongyang’s state-run KCNA news agency said on Thursday.
The invite came from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during talks with Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
“Putin accepted the invitation with pleasure and reaffirmed his will to invariably carry forward the history and tradition of the Russia-DPRK friendship,” KCNA said.
Earlier, on Wednesday, Kim vowed Pyongyang’s “full and unconditional support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumors that Russia is pulling forces from its eastern regions to bolster defenses in Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 22 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Targeted areas were Mykolaiv, Dnipro city and Kryvyi Rih.
Russia received another blow overnight with the destruction of an S400 complex in Crimea. More than 15 explosions were reported near Yevpatoria (Evpatoria ) this morning. on the coast 40 miles north of Sevastopol.
According to Ukrainian sources, SBU drones hit the “eyes” of the complex — radars and antennas. After disabling the radar, the Navy units hit the S300/400 “Triumph” launch systems with two Neptune cruise missiles.
Ukraine claimed they destroyed 1.2 Billion dollars of S400 systems in the strike. This is questionable as a single battery costs about 600 million and if the Ukraine claim is correct, Russia foolishly clustered two systems together.
Bakhmut Axis -
Reports seem to indicate that the Russian line of defense is potentially on the verge of falling apart along the Bakhmut, Klischiyivka, Andriyivka and Kurdumivka line south of Bakhmut.
OUTLOOK –
Once again, Ukraine nails a critical Russian target. Another S400 system(s) in Crimea incinerated overnight. Those following should be able to see the pattern, Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian air defense radars and systems in Crimea. Previous attacks permitted the strike on the dry dock facilities at Sevastopol. This new hit widens the window even further. Ukraine is doing far more damage with fewer missiles than Russia has been lately. If Ukraine were to get ATCAMS in a timely manner, Russia’s position in Crimea would be seriously endangered.
Still seeing a lot of fog of war on the battle situation on the ground. But it appears that Russia is struggling to respond to the multiple threatening axes of attack Ukraine is operating. Significant gains south of Bakhmut appear to be on the go from both Ukraine and Russian sources. Question is does Russia want to waste resources defending Bakhmut when its forces are facing disaster elsewhere and need those same resources?
In the south, Ukraine is cycling a pattern that is slow but working. Upon seizing ground, dig in for the expected Russian counter attacks and eat those attacks up with their superior artillery support, then move forward again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Russian situation is so dire that Ukraine attacks directly towards Donetsk are gaining momentum.
There is still a good chance that Ukraine will finish opening the defensive line in the Tokmak axis and allow the armor to rampage as the offensive in Kharkiv did this time last year. How close Ukraine is to this goal is unknown, but intel to date indicates they are very close.
Europe / NATO General –
Romanian MFA summoned the Russian ambassador Valery Kuzmin after the third drone penetrated Romanian airspace. Romanian army found a third drone inside Romania, 14 km inland. Military sources state “The danger for the population is real. Fragments could not have flown that far, the drone must have flown till the crash site.”
Romania is reportedly moving air defense systems to the Ukrainian border in response to Russian suicide drones crashing on RO territory. Additionally Romania is :
- Sending troops & EOD teams to the border
- Deploying radars, sensors & air defense systems
- Patrolling the Danube river
OBSERVATION - This is a significant cycling up of Romanian response to Russian attacks spilling over into the country from Ukraine. Some suggest that Romania may set up an air defense zone that covers portions of Ukraine’s port facilities on the Danube currently being targeted by Russia. Russia is treading dangerously close to a more aggressive response by NATO.
***
In addition to Estonia reported yesterday, all Baltic countries have banned the entry of cars with Russian license plates.
***
Bulgaria has decided to place a NATO base on its territory -
“The cost of construction is estimated at 50 million euros, it is planned that it will be completed by 2025”, - reports the Minister of Defense of Bulgaria.
Saudi Arabia –
There are indicators that SA is looking to include the Palestinians in any normalization agreement with Israel.
Syria -
Assad forces open fire on protesters demanding the overthrow of the Assad regime and freedom in the city of Suwayda, southern Syria. According to several sources, there are injuries among the demonstrators.
OBSERVATION - Analysts are noting that Syria is losing ground to ISIS lately due to these protests as well as the mixed gaggle in eastern Syria of Turkish, Iranian, US and Syrian forces.
**
The Beirut-based al-Mayadeen reports that IAF fighter jets launched missiles from over northern Lebanon toward the Syrian city of Homs. Syrian state media says a second alleged Israeli strike, in the Hama area, caused material losses.
Venezuela -
China and Venezuela have signed new agreements on economy, trade, and tourism. Venezuela is seeking membership in BRICS and still maintains the potential for restoring its oil industry - but will need outside help.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that, in his opinion, the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh did not cope with its task. Pashinyan also stated that “Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Armenian authorities can no longer rely on the Russian Federation as a guarantor of their security”
OBSERVATION - Armenia is out gunned by Azeri forces and Russia’s backing has been the only thing that has kept them in check. That overt support is gone and Russia isn’t happy the Armenians are looking elsewhere for help.
The American People in their rush to get rid of President Trump. And in their infinite wisdom, turned the reins of Government over to some very wicked, and evil people to rule over them. And the good part is that they are not through. There was a Latin saying, Translated or transliterated to English it goes as follows: The voice of the people is the voice of God. How can the People go wrong with Joe Biden 81 million voters can't be wrong.
Craziness seems to be at a high level today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Government schools and local libraries should be used for “socialist organizing,” the self-proclaimed “Marxist lesbian” chief of the American Library Association (ALA) proclaimed at a major socialism conference last week. The library boss has also becoming notorious recently for hating on parents, families, Christians and anyone else who stands in the way of indoctrinating children.
Speaking after a panel at the Socialism 2023 conference in Chicago organized by a coalition of revolutionaries advocating for the “right” of children to engage in prostitution, among other absurdities, ALA chief Emily Drabinski did not hold back. “Public education needs to be a site of socialist organizing,” she told attendees, many of them actual communists
OBSERVATION - This action is not done in a vacuum, it reflects globalist plans to control all aspect of the lives of children - including separation for parental control. Big on the red flags is the push now for child prostitution protection and to participate in adult / child sex.
***
Has there ever been a time in world history when so much stupidity has been generated by a patently false ideology? Well, sure, socialism. But climate hysteria is making a run for it on the outside, now closing rapidly with socialism.
The latest is the United Nations telling us to completely revamp how we construct buildings. Actually, its message is to stop building at all. So as to achieve “net zero,” i.e., civilizational collapse.
There is much at the link, and no doubt much more in the report itself. For now, I just want to note this:
The solution also requires, in its implementation, sensitivity to local cultures and climates, including the common perception of concrete and steel as modern materials of choice.
“Until recently, most buildings were constructed using locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Yet modern materials such as concrete and steel often give only the illusion of durability, usually ending up in landfills and contributing to the growing climate crisis,” said Sheila Aggarwal-Khan, Director of UNEP’s Industry and Economy Division.
“Net zero in the building and construction sector is achievable by 2050, as long as governments put in place the right policy, incentives and regulation to bring a shift the industry action,” she added.
Until recently, buildings were made from locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Right. “Recently” being the 19th century. Next time we build a skyscraper, let’s make it out of bamboo!
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/09/u-n-says-build-with-bamboo.php
OBSERVATION - I’m sorry, a grass hut here in the Redoubt is unthinkable. Perhaps partially buried sod house, but then lets all run back to the stone age.
Economy –
The shoe has dropped. More than 10,000 staff at three of biggest US carmakers have gone on strike, their union says.
Work has been stopped at three plants owned by General Motors (GM), Ford and Stellantis. It came after labour contracts expired on Thursday night. The United Autoworkers Union (UAW) said the firms had not put forward acceptable offers.
The fight threatens to trigger higher prices for buyers and major disruption for the motor industry giants.
The union is seeking a 40% pay increase for its roughly 140,000 members over four years, noting a comparable rise in pay for company leaders.
Other demands included:
- a four-day working week
- the return of automatic pay increases tied to inflation
- stricter limits on how long workers can be considered “temporary” staff who do not receive union benefits
OBSERVATION - An autoworker strike – even if it’s short – could disrupt the largest manufacturing sector in the US and potentially send us into a recession. If the economic threat wasn’t significant enough, the unions are also gaining political influence and acting more like swing voters as the availability of labor decreases. Right now the administration appears to have its hands tied. To go against the unions will be seen by other unions as a overall abandonment of unions by democrats. OTOH, allowing the strike to inflame recessionary and inflation pressures ahead of the 2024 election cycle is not very palatable either.
***
After yesterday’s hotter than expected rebound in CPI, all eyes were on PPI for evidence of the future trend of inflation. The numbers were not good.
Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM in August (up from +0.3% in July and hotter than the +0.4% exp). That is the hottest PPI since June 2022, and pushed YoY prices up 1.6%.
OBSERVATION - This will pressure the Fed to raise rates more - and generate the increased likelihood of a serous recession in the near future.
***
Mortgage rates rose, remaining above 7% for a fifth straight week.
The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 7.18% from 7.12% a week earlier, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.
It was around 6% a year earlier and less than 3% two years earlier.
OBSERVATION - There is no sign of a recovering housing sector in the near future.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The American nuclear submarine USS Florida entered the Norwegian port of Tromso, according to the 6th Fleet of the US Navy. The Ohio-class submarine is equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,600 km.
Tromsø is located in northern Norway, just 382 km from the Russian border.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
I’ve seen these numbers floating around the intewebs the past few days. How accurate they are depends on the interoperation of the CDC data, but in part they ring true.
1 million mRNA COVID shots for teens will prevent 0–1 COVID deaths and cause 100,000–200,000 severe side effects, according to the CDC’s own data.
Now the 0-19 demographics was one of the least impacted ages for wuhan infections - know fact - so the very low death prevention is likely in the ball park. The potentially controversial claim of up to 200K sever side effects also tracks what has already been documented by VARS and follow on studies.
Both of these indicate that the CDC is foolish to recommend that the youth get jabbed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday temporarily blocked a lower court order curbing Biden administration efforts to combat controversial social media posts on topics including COVID-19 and election security.
White House communications staffers, the surgeon general and the FBI are among those affected by the order, which resulted from a lawsuit claiming the White House and executive branch agencies unconstitutionally squelched conservative points of view. The administration asked the Supreme Court to put the order on hold while it prepares an appeal.
The lower court order was to take effect Monday. Thursday’s Supreme Court order delays the effective date until Sept. 22. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit have until Wednesday to file a response.
OBSERVATION - Can’t really call this a win for biden, it only delays the implementation of the order to give the DoJ an opportunity to prepare an appeal which likely will be to the whole of the 5th Circuit court.
***
Hunter Biden was criminally charged Thursday, after efforts to reach a plea deal failed, leading to the first ever prosecution of a sitting president’s child.
The indictment filed Thursday by the U.S. District Court in Delaware charged three criminal counts related to making false statements in connection with the purchase of a firearm and illegally possessing the firearm as a drug addict.
OBSERVATION - This indictment is low hanging fruit. There are many more serious charges pending grand jury approval. But this could be the crack in the dam that breaks this all open - an likely torpedo the elder biden’s hopes for a second term. Perhaps this is why the MSM is suddenly abandoning biden’s credibility all of a sudden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a speech on Bidenomics, President Biden said, “particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans — you know, the workers without high school diplomas...”
Biden was also randomly screaming during his speech.
OBSERVATION - biden’s brain has turned to mush and his drugs are no longer keeping his dementia in check - plus it appears that his handlers are letting him hang himself in public events. This is scary, the guy that holds the nuclear button in his hand.
***
CNN is now listing out all of President Joe Biden’s lies as the New York Post and Washington Post are also ramping up their criticism of Biden.
Some are noting how this change in coverage has hit at the same time. Also, this is right after hunter’s indictment for gun violations.
OBSERVATION - Could this be an indicator that the swamp is turning on Biden in an effort to have him removed from the 2024 ticket? If we are to believe polls at this stage of the race, biden is a disaster, losing key demographic in a big way to Trump and with an impending recession is making him a popular as a root canal.
Illegal Immigration –
The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals extended a reprieve for the 1,000-foot buoy barrier in the Rio Grande River at Eagle Pass, Texas. Texas can keep the barrier up for at least 3 more weeks.
The next hearing is set for October 5 on whether or not the buoy barrier is illegal.
China –
Suspicion over the unexplained weeks-long absence of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu deepened on Friday, as leading western newspapers reported he was subject to a probe and a top U.S. diplomat questioned whether he was under house arrest.
Li, 65, has missed meetings with Vietnamese and Singaporean defense leaders in recent weeks, according to sources with direct knowledge of the engagements. He was last seen in Beijing on Aug. 29 delivering a keynote address at a security forum with African nations.
Citing U.S. officials, the Washington Post reported Li was under investigation for corruption and will likely be removed from his post. The Wall Street Journal also reported Li was being removed from office while the Financial Times earlier said the U.S. government believes Li is under investigation.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-defense-minister-li-shangfu/2023/09/15/id/1134585/
OBSERVATION - Interesting shifting of leadership around. Could there be some unsatisfactory preparations for a Taiwan attack as a cause?
North/South Korea –
Kim continues his Russian visit.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia has declared parts of Bulgaria’s economic zone in the Black Sea off limits due to claimed Russian ‘exercise’ See more under Europe / NATO General below.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine .
Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia increased the key rate to 13% from 12% per annum
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 17 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
News coming out of continued pressure on Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The Russian project 22160 patrol ships “Vasily Bykov” in the Black Sea was attacked by naval UAVs. Evidence of one waterline strike, though Russia denies any damage. Ukraine claims a second project 22160 patrol ship was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones and was damaged as well.
Ukraine has also announced the liberation of Andriivka- see below
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine has officially announced that the 3rd Assault Brigade has liberated Andriivka. In the process, it completely eliminated Russian 72nd Motorized Brigade. Ukraine claims it quickly surrounded the Russian garrison of Andriivka cutting it off from the main forces and destroyed.
As a result Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- the chief of the brigade intelligence;
- three battalion commanders;
- and almost all the infantry of the 72nd brigade, together with officers and a significant amount of equipment.
Loss of this village is placing severe pressure on the southern flank of Russia’s positions in Bakhmut.
Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children declared in settlements of Kherson region next to frontline. Twenty eight cities / towns in all. This is essentially the whole right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Speculation is that Ukraine is planning on opening up a major attack in the region and these cities would be targets as Ukraine logistics / ammo move forward to support the river crossing.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Last night’s drone activity targeted Starokostyantyniv of Khmelnitsky region.
OUTLOOK –
While things have slowed on the ground in the south, what appears to be consequences of laterally pulling forces out of eastern Ukraine is biting Russia hard in the Bakhmut area. The loss of Andriivka (town is now just rubble), is a serious tactical blow to Russian defense of Bakhmut.
Recent Russia senior officer losses also reflect the desperate defense Russia is fighting. When senior command comes this far forward in order to maintain control of their forces, things go wrong. And Ukraine identification and targeting of command posts has been devastating to Russia.
Russia is also losing any edge it had in the Black Sea. Its navy is no longer able to deploy in the region without the potential challenge by Ukraine drones - both sea and air borne. Remember with me the early threat of a Russia amphibious operation to seize the Odessa region. Now that threat is completely gone due to the loss of major amphibious vessels. At least 3 of the Rocha class are out, pulse many smaller vessels. These vessels have been largely switched to shuttling war materials between Russia and Crimea due to the damaged Kerch Bridge.
The loss of the second S400 system has opened Crimea up even wider to drone and cruise missile attacks on key facilities.
Now, I’m watching the Tokmok axis even more closely as it would take much more before a substantial break out could occur - and on a rapid basis.
Europe / NATO General –
Both Houses of UK Parliament have just approved the Home Secretary’s motion to add the Wagner Group to a list of proscribed terrorist organizations.
***
Romania has declared an ‘Aerial Interdiction area’ along the Danube River Delta. No-fly zone now covers 20-30kms from the River Danube and up to 4,000 meters.
OBSERVATION - Will Russia challenge this zone?
***
Russia has declared portions of Bulgaria’s economic exclusion zone of the Black Sea off limits due to “military exercises”. Bulgaria is consulting with NATO allies regarding any response. While this is outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, the act is considered provocative and would act to pressure Ukraine grain shipments through the zone. Any Russian aggression towards any Bulgarian vessel could trigger Article 5 response. One way to protest such a declaration is to place Bulgarian vessels in the zone. Russia backdown from a similar declaration in the North Atlantic a year ago.
***
Lithuania plans to seize Russian cars that are already in the EU
The confiscation of cars with Russian license plates will also affect those already in the EU in the future, the Lithuanian customs office has warned.
Now Finland plans to ban Russian vehicles from entering the country
“Every Russian who owns a car registered in Russia must leave with this vehicle in third countries, in the Russian Federation, Belarus,” said the head of Lithuanian customs Darius Žvironas. Estonia also warned about similar measures: cars with Russian license plates in the country should be re-registered or seized, said the head of the Interior Ministry.
OBSERVATION - The Baltic countries with Poland have been very outspoken against Russia and its war on Ukraine. These moves put pressure on ‘every day’ Russians to feel the pinch they have so far not felt from the war. Its aggressive nature is sure to bring out a hard Russia response, but any retribution by Russia will likely be muted to a degree in order to avoid a growing NATO confrontation.
Syria -
RUMINT - Bashar al-Assad wants to crown himself. The Elaf newspaper reported that the dictator of Syria wants to change the system of government in the country to a republican monarchy. Assad thus wants to ensure the safety of his family and the unimpeded transit of power to his son.
Black Swans
There is now a 95% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the coming Northern Hemisphere winter.
On Thursday, NOAA forecasters published a monthly update highlighting a strengthening El Niño pattern in the central and east Pacific. According to that update, there is a 71% chance that this winter’s El Niño will be classified as “strong.”
Children are the future. Control the children you control the future. That was what Hitler did through the Hitler Youth. And that is what they are doing through the Educational System. And the sheep are too stupid to realize it.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Non-profit news agencies Mongabay and the New Humanitarian published a joint report on Wednesday that debunked the United Nations’ extravagant claims of “climate neutrality.”
What the U.N. is actually doing, according to the report, is buying millions of dollars worth of “carbon credits” to “offset” its substantial emissions. Some of the projects that are supposedly “offsetting” the U.N.’s emissions are actually damaging the environment — or even the health of human beings.
“Carbon credits” are basically a shell game in which carbon emitters buy “permits” to spew more carbon dioxide from industries supposedly reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Environmental regulations have turned the carbon credit market into a grotesque billion-dollar “industry” that does not actually produce anything — it merely shuffles paperwork so that agencies and corporations can claim they are “carbon neutral” even though they still have prodigious emissions
OBSERVATION - WEF mouthpieces continue to harp on individuals purchasing ‘carbon credits’ as part of the global digital currency scam that will eventually track your carbon usage and punish you for eating too much beef. The scam of these ‘credits’ has been exposed for years now, but the woke elements of society keep it up for virtue signaling reasons.
***
On September 20th our representatives meeting at the United Nations (UN) will sign off on a ‘Declaration’ titled: “Political Declaration of the United Nations General Assembly High-level Meeting on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response.”
This was announced as a ‘silence procedure,’ meaning that States not responding will be deemed supporters of the text. The document expresses a new policy pathway for managing populations when the World Health Organization (WHO), the health arm of the UN, declares a future viral variant to be a ‘public health emergency of international concern.’
The WHO noted in 2019 that pandemics are rare, and insignificant in terms of overall mortality over the last century. Since then, it decided that the 2019 old-normal population were simply oblivious to impending annihilation. The WHO and the entire UN system now consider pandemics an existential and imminent threat.
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-uns-new-political-declaration-on-pandemics/
OBSERVATION - Currently, the globalists are trying to set up a one-two punch to accelerate their plans to execute the ‘great reset’ Plan one is a global medical dictatorship weaseled into current treaties - the pending WHO treaty modifications to dictate ‘medical actions’. The second is the push for a global “climate” emergency to destroy economies to stop global warming. These are getting closer to kick off time folks. The WHO is expected now to issue the changes next year.
A third punch - something to trigger an economic disaster is still forming on the horizon .
Economy –
UAW strikes against the Big 3 US automakers enters another day with no off ramp in sight. Battle lines politically are developing fast.
In a strongly worded statement, the President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Suzanne P. Clark, squarely blamed President Biden for the historic strike by members of the United Auto Workers union, the first simultaneous walkout on all three major Detroit automakers.
According to Clark, the strike and subsequent fallout were attributed to President Biden’s encouragement of unions to assert their influence, even if it poses a threat to the U.S. economy. Clark described the strike and the broader trend of labor actions as a result of the Biden administration’s comprehensive approach to promoting unionization.
Currently, biden is siding with the strikers - saying “no-one” wanted industrial action, but he understood worker frustration.”
“Workers deserve a fair share,” he said. “The companies have made some significant offers, but I believe it should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts.”
Biden’s support is targeted at wooing the unions back to him. The UAW in May said it would not endorse his re-election campaign, citing concerns that government subsidies for firms working on electric vehicles had not been accompanied by commitments to workers.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry in general has shot itself in the foot by going whole hog into the EV scam. The current economy has further hurt sales due to gross high prices combined with record loan interest rates. How can afford a loan on a $100 K car/truck and pay the mortagage/rent? Combine that with hyper politics from union leadership trying to build on a weak democrat presidential candidate - well go much for the auto industry.
Link to an article that brings more insight to the fall of the auto industry.
IN RELATED
Sen. Bernie Sanders addressed striking autoworkers in Detroit on Friday, calling on working people across the U.S. to stand in solidarity with the walkout.
Sanders called out General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares and Ford CEO Jim Farley, all of whom made over $20 million last year, about their pay.
“It is time for you to end your greed,” Sanders said. “It is time for you to treat your employees with the respect and dignity they deserve. It is time to sit down and negotiate a fair contract.”
The independent senator from Vermont has promoted the strikes as a pivotal moment in a broader campaign to raise living standards for working people across the U.S.
“Let us stand together to end corporate greed, let us stand together to rebuild the disappearing middle class, let us create an economy that works for all, not just the one percent,” Sanders said.
“Let us all, every American, in every state in this country stand with the UAW,” the senator said.
OBSERVATION - Socialist/communists like Sanders live in a bubble from the past. Demanding all support the strikers, but completely ignorant as to the fact that this strike is going to hurt them further in the wallet. Unions have been on the decline for many years now due to corrupt practices and sponging off members dues. I don’t think that forcing even higher auto prices on non-UAW workers is going to gather much support either.
Remember - for the left, they will willingly burn it all down as long as they can rule over the ashes.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
An armed man who was wearing a U.S. Marshal’s badge and carrying federal ID who claimed to be part of the security detail for Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was arrested Friday afternoon at an appearance in Los Angeles by Kennedy. Event security intercepted him as he was trying to approach Kennedy. No shots were fired in the incident. He had two shoulder holsters and a bunch of ammo.
OBSERVATION - I’ve warned about assassination attempts this election cycle. So far, Kennedy has been denied Secret Service protection as a democrat candidate for the presidency. This is growing into a very dangerous scenario.
***
U.S. District Court Judge David Urias, a Biden appointee, issued a temporary restraining order against Grisham’s gun grab until the next hearing in early October.
Judge Urias said Grisham violated the rights of law-abiding citizens to defend themselves.
On Friday, Governor Grisham ‘amended’ her unconstitutional order. She is not complying with the Court’s restraining order.
OBSERVATION - Her ‘amended’ order should be going to the judge asap. This is an example of the lawlessness of democrat leftist leadership and should provide a good picture of how they will act if/when things go sideways. They think by ‘tweaking’ their orders, they can get around clear court decisions.
***
According to NBC, the FBI has created a standalone unit to deal with “threats and harassment by people who think they haven’t been tough enough on the president’s son.”
They also talk about threats that have:
“coincided with attacks on the FBI and the Justice Department by congressional Republicans and former President Donald Trump, who have accused both agencies of participating in a conspiracy to subvert justice amid two federal indictments of Trump.”
So, read that again. They’ve created a unit to investigate “threats,” and the media is attaching it to Republicans raising questions about the two-tier system of justice.
OBSERVATION - Continuing trend to weaponize the govt against the American people. The depth of the govt’s overall posture of identifying and potentially criminalizing citizens opposed to govt polices and corruption has really grown in my eyes over the past couple years and seems to be taking off even higher of late. More an more it seems the DoJ/FBI and other alphabet agencies are preparing to go hot - and in the approach to presidential elections that is increasingly looking to be a disaster for biden.
***
The folks at Forward Observer are reporting that Anarchist networks are planning rallies and protests in 70+ cities throughout September and October to build momentum for a mass direct action event on Monday, 13 November, at “Cop City,” a colloquial name for the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center outside Atlanta, Georgia.
OBSERVATION - It will be interesting to see how successful Antifa et al will be in getting turnout at these rallies. They have been experiencing very low turn out and generally there have been no national level events to drive increased participation. What is certain is that things will be hot in Atlanta as a renewed push to close down construction will reach a fever pitch again. One thing is certain, Atlanta officials are ready to play hard ball with them given the RICO charges against 61 of these leftists from earlier associated violence.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
There is a lot of talk of an increase in US forces being stationed in Europe, especially Poland. The combat brigade of the 101st is still there, but talk of a brigade armored task force arriving as well. Overall numbers in the 100K range. Some is troop rotation related, but is interesting that if true, increases are going in under the US public radar.
Russia’s intelligence would also be noting an increase.
I’m not convinced that the reports on increase are legit at this time but worth digging into and monitoring for definite changes. Just making a place marker for future reference if needed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Reminder - on Jan 11, 2017, nine days before trump took office, fauci is on record saying that “no doubt trump will face surprise infectious disease outbreak”. Wuhan was already in the works folks.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep McCarthy is in the fight for his speakership with increasing calls for his removal following a year of failed promises, pulling back from a budget battle and going forward with a biden et al impeachment. This internal scrum almost makes certain that the govt will shut down Oct 1 as the internal fighting has essentially stopped legislative movement in getting the financing bills passed and over to the Senate where democrats there are very likely to vote them down - making the democrat / republican stalemate even worse.
***
The clarity of the reasoning for the hunter biden indictments on gun crime is clear - those charges have the least connection to biden white house and corruption associated with the “big guy”.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden retreats to Delaware for another vacation. He’s spent 40% of his time on vacation since becoming president.
Illegal Immigration –
Angry NY’rs went off on AOC and Nadler demanding that the govt ‘close the border’. The shine is off the progressive plan to replace Americans and they are getting an earful. Of course they will ignore these ignorant masses demands. . . .
***
Newly-elected Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has announced his plan to relocate about 1,600 illegal immigrants housed in different police stations in the city to special tent communities.
This also comes as Johnson urged residents to make a “sacrifice” for the greater good, claiming that things could be much worse if they do not.
“These families are coming to the city of Chicago,” Johnson stated. “If we do not provide support for these individuals and these families, that type of desperation will lead to chaos. There is a great sacrifice that is going to be required at this moment, sacrifices we are prepared to make to ensure that this city is not chaotic and is not riddled with desperate people.”
The plan to house the illegals in tent communities only contributed to the increasing tensions and pushback from residents, who were concerned about the influx of migrants arriving in the city.
OBSERVATION - Remember that the great claim of the progressive left is that these illegals are coming here for the work that ‘white’ Americans are refusing to do? Reality is hitting the liberals in these blue cities hard as they are facing a fraction of the chaos borders states are feeling.
Chicagoans are not feeling much like ‘sacrificing’ to these illegals, as it is biting into the support and political visibility of the democrat social welfare class who now has to complete for govt resources with these intruders.
China –
Discussion on the interwebs concerning whether or not China as commenced a military buildup along the coast as a precursor to a Taiwan invasion. Parallel example would be how the buildup by Russia for the Ukraine war developed. There is one key difference here and that is the close hold China has on such open source observations and reporting. Russia had eyes everywhere reporting deployment locations, sizes, types, etc. It was hardly a surprise having seen the build up for six months. China has far fewer eyes on its buildup. That is not to say that national level intelligence assets cannot monitor developments, but those reports are not open to public consumption.
Analysts are looking at China’s responses to Russia’s failures in Ukraine, with the focus being the logistics failures that killed the initial offensive and has kept Russia on its heels ever since. China notes that Ukraine’s dogged attacks on logistics (fuel and ammo) hurt Russia badly as it was not set up to deliver on such a large scale.
China taking logistics as a key critical component of any invasion. They can get the troops there, but sustaining combat with storages of fuel and ammo are definitely a key concern. Interdiction of supply vessels by Taiwan and any allies (US) would be hard to defend against and would pull combat power back from the Island out of necessity. They want to ovoid a Russian like logistical nightmare that could turn the operation into an embarrassing quagmire. Remember - China has never launched an operation of this type and size before - so they have not prior experience to draw upon.
North/South Korea –
RUMIT that NK has promised 300K - 500K soldiers to the Ukraine conflict. Not that such an ‘offer’ has been made in the past but not taken up by putin. This may not be the bargain Russia could consider it to be as Russia doesn’t have the capacity to support such a force and secondly operational control would be a challenge - from an ideologically driven NK structure vs old Russian generals bucking for higher ranks in the Kremlin. This doesn’t even get into the communications / language issues.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic in Russia, is currently in a coma after his health rapidly deteriorated, according to Ukrainian Intelligence GUR.
NOTE - Rumors that he has a serious illness have been circulating for most of a year.
RUMINT-
The Kremlin is reportedly trying to censor Russian media coverage of a possible second reserve mobilization wave in order to prevent discontent ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential elections.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another day, another Russian combat vessel hit in the Black Sea by Ukraine drones. Ukraine reports that naval drones hit and damaged the Russian Bora-class missile-carrying hovercraft, Samum (Hull 616) in the offshore approaches to Sevastopol harbor. Samum was last reported to be down by the stern and under tow. Photos circulating the interwebs confirm the tow and much lowered stern.
The steady, methodic Ukrainian assaults on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts are creating cracks - see below.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces continue to gain tactical victories around Verbove and Novoprokopivka, placing remaining Russian forces in greater peril. Russia lost a senior battalion commander from the 76th GAAD in the fighting.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian sources are now conceding that Klishchiivka has been liberated by the AFU.
Military Informant - “During heavy fighting in recent weeks on the southern flank from Bakhmut , the enemy was able to drive our units out of the villages of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka.”
Ukraine sources state that Klishchiivka is not fully under Ukraine control yet, but that clean up operations are underway. Klishchiivka is on a strategic high ground that dominates Bakhmut and the regions to the east.
OUTLOOK –
The hammering Russia has taken this week from a combination of Ukraine drones (sea and air), cruise missiles and modified Neptune missiles reportedly has Russian intelligence scrambling to find the bases from which these attacks have been launched. So far Ukraine has stayed one step ahead of Russian intelligence, pulling a quicker OODA loop that Russian planners haven’t been able to keep up with. This could be one reason Russia has pretty much limited its drone/ missile attacks to the Iranian Shabad drones and modified S200’s - saving their more advanced missiles to target what they think are key facilities used for these attacks.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to surgically strike not only Russian air defense assets in Crimea, but critical logistical nodes. With the successful destruction of air defense, these strikes on logistics and command centers are growing. This is preventing critical supplies from going north to support Russian defense against the Ukraine offensive.
Evidence suggests that Russia is holding on by their fingernails both in the south as well as in the east. Lateral shifting of forces from the Bakhmut area is now resulting in increasing Ukraine gains, while the Ukraine defensive “rope a dope” scheme of seizing land, digging in and defeating piecemeal Russian counter attacks is paying off in the south. This is evidenced by the increasing numbers of senior Russian officers associated with the 76th GAAD being killed in battle. The Russians have been holding only because of the massive numbers of mines spread all over.
As noted, the tactical situation on the ground can change rapidly and there are signs that such may happen soon, especially as Ukraine digs deeper behind the second defensive line on the Tokmok axis and Russian forces begin to crumble in the Bakhmut region.
Poland –
Poland announced it will ban cars with Russian number plates from entering the country starting tomorrow. This joins the Baltic nations and Finland in doing the same.
Europe / NATO General –
The Romanian army has reportedly transferred 2 battalions with a strength of 600 soldiers to the border zone with Ukraine (Danube delta), which are equipped with air defense equipment and mobile radars for the detection of complex aerial objects such as the Russian operational-tactical kamikaze drones.
These forces were tasked with acting on these aircraft in the event of a threat to the Romanian Air Force.
Deputy Chief of the Romanian Defense Staff, General Gheorghiţă Vlad. - “Romania will shoot down Russian drones”
OBSERVATION - Russia’s sloppiness in its drone attacks has now poked the wrong bear. We now watch to see if Russia will continue its attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube across from Romania and id Romania will carry out the threat. It is initially appearing that its declared air defense zone covers portions of Ukraine.
**
Banning Russian cars follows EU’s advice to stop Russians taking sanctioned goods back to Russia.
OBSERVATION - Apparently these ‘private’ cars are purchasing materials / items that are on the sanction list necessary for war production - most likely electronics - and smuggling them back to Russia.
Syria -
The country’s southern province of al-Suwayda’, whose population primarily comes from the Druze minority, is currently witnessing protests on an unprecedented scale. This has lead some analysts to suggest that Syria is clearly on the verge of collapse in terms of the economy and humanitarian situation.
Syria is attempting for the moment a ‘hands off’ mode to try to prevent further inflammation of the situation via any attempt to put the protests down as they did a few years ago.
OBSERVATION - A few years ago, similar protests rocked the southern Syria region and were put down by aggressive Syrian military actions supported by Iranian backed militias. Syria doesn’t have that ability now. With Russia’s diversion of effort to Ukraine, Syria is stuck with sagging Russian support and is increasing turning to Iran for help. That help comes with a price of allowing Iran to set up facilities and bases for an eventual attack on Israel. Syria is struggling with increased loss of control in the north due to Turkish incursions and in the east by a resurgent ISiS, as Syrian and Iranian militias drop their attacks on ISIS and focus on driving US/allied forces out of the region.
The prolonged civil war has decimated the economy and there is little hope for any pull back from the death spiral.
Misc of Note –
The Northeast has dodged a potential strike by Hurricane Lee.
Current Alerts and Warnings:
Hurricane Watch: From Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border, parts of New Brunswick, and portions of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Warning: In effect for Bermuda, from Westport Massachusetts extending north to the U.S./Canada border, including Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
One wonders if GM, Ford and Stellantis can sell carbon credits during the strike?
I’m sure there is someone out there willing to take the money
Abbreviated today. Got a search and rescue call out last night so running a little light today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The political maneuvering by the WHO and the UN continue to be kept under scrutiny. May 2024 is still the target date for the formalization of 300+ new amendments and the WHO CA+ Framework Convention (formerly known as “Pandemic Treaty”) are scheduled to be adopted. The new set of Amendments to the International Health Regulations that are currently being worked on, expected to be officially submitted for consideration as a draft in January 2024.
OBSERVATION - 2024 is building into another crisis convergence period. The WHO, the US 2024 elections cycle, potential US and global recession, and CBDC rollouts. Coincidence? Part of globalist plans are to create as much chaos as possible to then offer their ‘solution’ to a public desiring stability and peace.
Economy –
Kalifornian pols are preceeding to devour what’s left of the golden goose that was the promise of California. From National Owners Association, a fast food industry advocate, the recently passed -
“The new ‘AB 1228’ legislation has been voted into law and will result in a devastating financial blow to California McDonald’s franchisees at a projected annual cost of $250,000 per McDonald’s restaurant,” the advocacy group representing some 1,000 McDonald’s franchisees said in the memo obtained by FOX Business.
“These costs simply cannot be absorbed by the current business model.”
Here are some of the new rules franchisees will face if Governor Gavin Newsom signs the bill into law (which he has already pledged to do):
It would raise the minimum wage for fast-food workers to $20 per hour (from current $15.15/hr).
It would apply to restaurants with at least 60 locations nationwide, except for restaurants that make and sell their own bread.
It would also create a 10-person council to govern fast-food chains and set guidelines for working conditions and wages.
OBSERVATION - Back in the day of basic economics, labor costs were the single most significant costs to businesses. An increase of 25% to that cost is untenable and the only way fast food will stay in business is to pass that cost onto customers as well as develop ways to reduce the labor force through more automation or elimination of some services - such as sit down eating shifting to drive through only.
My fast food outings are down to a bare minimum. I can no longer afford to take out a second mortgage in order to buy a Happy Meal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was acquitted Saturday of all 16 impeachment charges related to bribery and abuse of office after a trial in the state senate. His lawyer decimated his accusers and may have put the bush dynasty in Texas back many years.
***
Cross reference to CW 2 as well
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is eyeing a change to the United States Constitution. The state’s legislature on Thursday approved a resolution in support of Newsom’s call for a 28th Constitutional amendment, according to the Los Angeles Times. The amendment would enshrine a list of Democratic gun-control policy priorities into federal law.
The proposed “Right to Safety Amendment” would limit legal gun ownership to adults 21 and older, enact universal federal background checks on gun sales, create a mandatory “reasonable waiting period” for gun purchases, and ban the purchase of many forms of semiautomatic rifles.
OBSERVATION - In the current political environment such a change is a non-starter. It would not even begin to receive the necessary 3/4 state approval necessary. This amendment essentially pushes kalifornia’s failed gun controls onto the rest of the nation, laws that have failed to have any impact on gun related violence.
Although newscum has publicly bowed out of open presidential candidacy hopes for 2024, this is more evidence that he is waging a shadow campaign - anticipating a melt down of the biden / harris regime and for him to ride in on the so called white horse to save the party.
Biden / Harris Watch –
President Biden told a group of rabbis on Thursday that he was “raised in the synagogues” of Delaware — after previously claiming to have been raised by the state’s then-tiny Puerto Rican community.
“I, you might say, was raised in the synagogues of my state. You think I’m kidding, I’m not,” Biden said during a call ahead of Rosh HaShanah, the Jewish new year holiday that begins Friday.
OBSERVATION - This is not from the Babylon Bee folks.
***
The White House edited the transcript to biden’s recent speech by making one subtle change to his comments by adding the word “and,” according to its website:
“We’ve seen record lows in unemployment, particularly — and I’ve focused on this my whole career — particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans, you know, AND the workers without high-school diplomas. The lowest unemployment rate in 70 years for women now.”
This comes after considerable blowback after inferring on Thursday that black, Hispanic, and veteran workers do not have high school diplomas.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is on his way home Sunday from Russia, ending a six-day trip that triggered global concerns about weapons transfer deals between the two countries locked in separate standoffs with the West.
OBSERVATION - Further analysis of the results of the visit are pending, but it is likely that at a minimum Kim is going to be providing Soviet- era artillery munitions as well as some of his newer stuff like a HIMARS knockoff. In exchange putin is expected to provide some sort of support for further modernization of NK’s forces. Kim was particularly interested in missiles and aircraft.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Ramzan Kadyrov released a video to counter claims that he was in a coma.
Logistics –
During Kim’s visit to Russia, Shoigu and Lt. Gen. Sergei Kobylash, the commander of the Russian long-range bomber force, confirmed for the first time that the Tu-160 had recently received new cruise missiles with a range of more than 6,500 kilometers (over 4,040 miles).
Three large Russian landing ships redeployed from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov - speaker of the Ukrainian Navy Dmytro Pletenchuk. Most likely these ships will be used to support the shipment of military supplies from Russia into the Southern and eastern Ukrainian regions. And in doing so, get them out of the *current* range of Ukrainian weapon systems.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia has withdrawn its military from the border with Norway, said the chief of the Norwegian General Staff
Only about 20% of the number of soldiers stationed there before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are currently deployed near the border with Norway, said the chief of the Norwegian Armed Forces General Staff, General Eirik Kristoffersen. The same situation is on Russia’s border with Finland, pointed out Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military committee.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones and 6 of 10 Kh-101 cruise missiles. Explosions heard in the Odessa area as well as to the east around Ochakiv. Russian also launched four S-300 missiles at Kharkiv overnight.
Meanwhile, Moscow and surrounding region faced Ukrainian drone attacks.
Kherson Axis -
Russian milbloggers claimed on Sept. 14 & 15 that Ukrainian forces intensified their activity on unspecified Dnipro River delta islands near the Antonivsky Bridge to consolidate positions for a future attack on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
OUTLOOK –
Pretty slow war news day. Still high on the radar is Ukrainian activity in the Kherson / Dniper River bridgehead areas. With Russia pulling forces across the front to bolster the defense of Tokmok, if Ukraine is able to get a serious attack from Kherson towards Crimea, Russian defenses could buckle. This is the least defended potential axis of attack. With late summer / early fall, river flow in the Dniper River is approaching minimum levels, making a potential bridging operation more likely. Ukrainian forces currently on the east bank of the river will push out to drive Russian artillery out of range of potential bridging locations.
Russia continues to hold on by its fingernails to the Bakhmut region - showing significant signs of cracking.. With Ukraine in the Russian second line of defense trenches in the Tokmok axis there are rumors of a imminent break through. Russia is desperately trying to reinforce Tokmok, but Ukraine has shown it doesn’t need to directly assault the city in order to control it, bypassing and isolation has been working just fine and economizes the force.
Again, changes can happen rapidly under the current tactical situation.
Israel –
See Saudi Arabia below.
Iran –
The death of Mahsa Amini on 16 September 2022 has been remembered by protests in many portions of Iran, particularly in Kurdish dominated regions.
Saudi Arabia –
Rumors that the normalization talks between SA and Israel may be breaking down due to efforts to incorporate the Palestinians into the mix
Black Swans
Climate change advocates continue to say that the ‘extreme’ weather observed today is due to global warming. Critical examination of historical data time and again argues against that view, but you won’t see it as it is contra to the narrative. Here is a link to some of the evidence that shows globalists are all wet on recent flooding and other weather woes.
Stay safe...
(Hurricanes in Florida? We had more and stronger ones in the 50's - MSM Bimbos and pretentious 'men' lie for Climate Alarmism.)
It’s always safety first on these operations.
Globalism / Great Reset –
UN climate summit this week, all the envirowackos are coming out of their holes. . . .
***
It is being noted that as of June 2023, 109 countries were actively exploring or engaging in CBDCs across various phases. Among these countries, 45 were involved in research, 32 were engaged in development, and 21 were in the pilot stage. Additionally, 16 countries were inactive, with 11 having already launched their CBDC projects, while two had canceled their involvement.
OBSERVATION - The biggest obstacle at least here in the US will be the resistance to eliminate physical cash all together. Digital exchange for all transactions will require electronics to complete. How are you, for instance, going to buy that nicknack at a yard sale? Are the banks going to ‘buy’ back physical currency - and at what discount rate? 90 cents on the dollar?
Push for 100% compliance may come with increased propaganda along the lines of only criminals and terrorists use physical cash. Other incentives are the security of their transactions. They will have to fight the specter of eventual govt tracking and control of purchases to force social compliance with globalist goals on diversity and global warming. At this stage that is a high hurdle to get over, barring some kind of significant disaster or other event.
Economy –
U.S. oil prices shot above $90 a barrel for the first time in 10 months, a bad sign for the Federal Reserve. The surge in oil prices is expected to push gasoline prices up even higher and worsen already rising inflation rates across the economy.
OBSERVATION - Fed rate increases are theoretically designed to slow economic activity and growth. Typically this also reduces petroleum consumption. This time around petroleum consumption is normal, but supples are being restricted off shore by OPEC+ members - mainly Saudi Arabia and Russia. Further rate increase by the Fed will not affect inflation as it doesn’t address the supply deficit, but will make it worse by handicapping domestic production and capitol needed for drilling and processing. Of course higher fuel prices pan out to higher prices across the board.
***
The United Auto Workers chief warned Sunday that a historic strike at the top three car manufacturers will expand if the companies do not raise their wage offers in ongoing negotiations.
OBSERVATION - One counter offer I heard was for about a 20% increase in wages. Union reps reportedly slapped that down quickly. Biden is currently supporting the Unions in what may indicate is an effort to regain their support considering how his push for EVs will eventually devastate the unions and cause thousands of jobs.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
We lost an F35 - soon to be showing up on milk cartons across America.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Probability of a govt shut down is increasing every day.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Increasing rumbling from the left that support for biden’s 2024 run is fading, but that they are not too thrilled over trying to defend harris’ lack luster term as VP with a popularity rating below that of biden.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal crossings are strongly increasing across the southern border. CBP is reduced to dropping captured illegals off in the middle of towns telling them they are on their own.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un left Russia on Sunday after a rare six-day visit that appeared to solidify his country’s ties with President Vladimir Putin, fanning Western fears that Pyongyang could provide Moscow with weapons for its assault on Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - NK’s potential contribution to Russia’s Ukraine war effort would not be that significant as there are potential quality control and other production issues that would need to be worked out. The simple fact that Russia is looking to NK for help demonstrates the critical need of Russia to try to do something to reverse the current of the conflict.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had several negative effects on the Russian economy. One of the less obvious ones is a labor shortage. As Russia mobilized more and more young men, it deprived many manufacturing or maintenance facilities of key staff. Military-age men who had manufacturing or equipment maintenance skills were forced into the military, even though their employers warned that this would disrupt production if items needed by the military. Such exemptions were granted during World War II, but now the government decided that additional soldiers were more important than production of weapons and military equipment. What the government did not take into account was that, since the war began, nearly a million military age Russians have left the country. This continued even after the government outlawed the migration of military age men from Russia. Corruption in the government and military made it possible for military age men to get out of Russia. The government was told by employers that unless the government took action on the problems, production of key military items would continue to decline.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20230918.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 24 Shahed drones and 17 of 17 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
Ukraine returned the favor with drone strikes in Russia and Crimea. There was an explosion at an oil depot due to a drone attack in Oryol region of Russia last night. Russian media also reported drones in several locations of Moscow region. Airports in the region were closed.
Bakhmut Axis -
Klishchivka , south of Bakhmut, is in Ukraine hands. Now action is heating up on the northern side of the town as Ukrainian forces have made additional gains east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km NW of Bakhmut) toward the E-40 highway.
Kherson Axis -
Russian milbloggers claimed on Sept. 14 & 15 that Ukrainian forces intensified their activity on unspecified Dnipro River delta islands near the Antonivsky Bridge to consolidate positions for a future attack on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
Crimean front —
Major explosions near Sevastopol in Crimea over night. Looks like Ukrainian missiles struck a Russian air defense system.
OUTLOOK –
Activity is plateauing. Daily drone/missile exchanges continue to favor Ukraine. Ukraine continues a multidimensional surgical assault on Russian logistics and command centers both near the front as well as in Crimea and other occupied zones.
Word out from the aftermath of the Klishchivka area battles is that Russian forces, and in particular VDV elements have really taken it on the chin, with substantial losses of brigade level leaders and staff. This may well be reflected in the gains in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka, NW of Bakhmut. Defenses and leadership is significantly thinned out.
Fighting in along the Tokmok axis continues to be a predominantly infantry effort. Very little Ukrainian armor/tank are directly involved at this stage. Continued indicators that Ukraine is splitting the defensive line and may well soon commit armor in a break out mode.
Russia is trying to dig more defensive positions around Tokmok. The question is will they have the soldiers to effectively man those trenches. As noted before - Ukraine has continually shown that they will fix Russian forces in place while maneuvering around such strong points - cutting them off and eventually forcing a Russian retreat or destruction. Ukraine at this moment doesn’t need to physically occupy Tokmok, just position to interdict the supply routes that the city is a hub for. That will further cripple Russian defensive efforts - not food, fuel or ammo/arty.
As alway, things can change quickly.
Europe / NATO General –
An drone believed to be Russian carrying an 82-mm mortar mine was found on the rocks near the village of Tyulenovo, 70 km from the border with Romania and across the sea from Crimea. News reports claim it had ‘crashed’, though some photos suggest that it was washed onto the rocks.
Israel –
See Saudi Arabia below.
Iran –
Protests demoralizing the death of Mahsa Amini on 16 September 2022 continue in Iran. However, I do not think that they will have the traction to continue for any extended period.
Saudi Arabia –
Rumors that the normalization talks between SA and Israel may be breaking down due to efforts to incorporate a Palestinian state into the mix.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Rumors of a coup attempt in the Congo have been refuted by the Congo-Brazzaville government.
Illegal crossings are strongly increasing across the southern border.
CBP is reduced to dropping captured illegals off in the middle of towns telling them they are on their own."
--------------------------------------------------------
This will eventually lead to criminal activity as the government 'entitlements' run out.
Additionally, since there is a government policy against hiring illegals until they have been in this country for a certain mount of time
and hold a green card, this will lead to massive unrest among the illegals when they cannot obtain food or housing. We are already experiencing a rising crime rate among out own population due to Dumbocratic justice policies,
this will only exaggerate the problem and lead to even further crises.
Correct. I’ve been pointing this out a lot lately. See chaos in Europe, soon to be here as well.
Remember, these are military aged males - a lot of tinder that can ignite quickly.
Globalism / Great Reset –
There are a number of events listed below that are linked closely to the efforts of the UN/WEF and the global reset.
Economy –
UAW strike continues with very little hope for an end in sight. Both sides threaten to ‘escalate’ with Union to increase the number of plants to be picketed and the auto makers closing plants and putting union workers out of work. Currently the WH continues to support strikers even while on the other hand pushing EVs that will result in the loss of jobs.
Trump is reported to be considering skipping the second debate and instead going to have a confab with union strikers. Should be interesting.
***
The federal debt has recently surpassed a staggering $33 trillion, a historic milestone in itself. What’s even more worrisome is the rapid pace at which it’s been growing. Since June, it has been expanding at an annualized rate of 18.5%.
In 1980, it was 31% of GDP. By 2015, it had climbed to 101%. Today, it stands at a whopping 123%. Since the debt ceiling “crisis,” the U.S. has been adding an astonishing $1 trillion in debt every month. In just the past five years, the country has accumulated a total debt increase of $11.5 trillion.
OBSERVATION - Can cross reference to Globalism / Great Reset as well.
I’ve not focused extensively on the federal debt’s threat to the US, mostly on the peripheral issues. But this has crossed a threshold to become the Damocles sword that the WEF et al could use to bring down our economy to permit the initiation of the great reset. We are not alone with such staggering national debt. China is somewhere near 300% of its GDP for instance. With such staggering amounts of debt, the concept of a wiping it from the books, combined with a global rescue could become very enticing. Question now is the current trend to a recession here in the US going to be severe enough to break the thread holding this sword.
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Ongoing high fed rates could damage businesses as they seek corporate debt refinancing.
Economists indicate that $504 billion in nonfinancial corporate debt matures this year, $710 billion will mature in 2024, and $862 billion will mature in 2025, according to S&P Global analysts. This debt was incurred at historically low rates, now is facing substantially higher rates and fees. This could be disastrous for many businesses currently being hit in the bottom line by inflation and current pre-recession slowdowns.
OBSERVATION - Consequences from the fed’s rate policy keep rolling in the longer they keep rates inflated.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Ongoing efforts to nullify Trumps presidential run by removal from the state ballots has come to kalifornia and may potentially have some degree of success as it goes thru the State AG and not the SecState. With an abundance of far leftist activists judges, AG Bonta could get a declaration of relief which is essentially a bench decision without trial. This would potentially permit removal prior to the Dec 8 deadline for the primary ballot.
OBSERVATION - this is a very dangerous path being taken by the left and will result in the explosion of law fare in the federal courts over the legality of such a measure. So far democrat attempts to excluded Trump using other so called ‘constitutional’ means have been striking out. This is a desperation move by the left and could cause incredible ripples across the nation - confirming the ‘fix’ being in for the election as well as potential violence between Trump supporters and leftists at protest/counterprotests.
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Massive concentrations of illegal immigrants hitting the US continues to build pressure towards potential violence and large scale crime in affected areas. Very real scenario of new illegals linking up with others to form their own militias or crime cartels to take what they want from already overwhelmed communities. This is what is happening in much of Europe as we speak. Liberal sanctuary cities/ states cannot get enough financial ‘aid’ to them fast enough to keep them pacified. As winter bears down on many of these dark blue metropolitan areas, housing demands will quadruple for illegals currently there - let alone the additional tens of thousands enroute.
Terrorism -
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Marine Corps has issued a stand-down of ALL aircraft following the mysterious disappearance of the F-35. Under the order, all Marine Corps aircraft, inside and outside the US, have been grounded.
According to the Pentagon, the pause is to allow units to “discuss aviation safety and best practices,” and that the Marine leadership will use the standard “to ensure the service is maintaining operational standardization.”
Missing F-35 fighter jet crashed in a field in Williamsburg County, north of Charleston about 75 miles north of where the pilot was ejected
OBSERVATION - Safety stand down is common practice, but there are still many unknowns concerning the circumstances surrounding the crash. The most significant is what were the circumstances surrounding the ejection of the pilot and the decision to ‘autopilot’ the aircraft. Rumors are afoot that the software heavy reliant systems may have been hacked.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
POLITICAL FRONT –
Key factions of the House Republican Conference reached a tentative agreement Sunday to keep the government funded temporarily and avert a shutdown scheduled for the end of the month, pairing it with a conservative border security measure, multiple GOP sources with knowledge of the agreement said.
House Republicans released a bill after the far-right Freedom Caucus and the center-right Main Street Caucus reached a tentative agreement, the sources said. The deal, which would keep the government funded through Oct. 31 but includes cuts to domestic spending, is expected to pave the way to pass a defense spending bill this week that has been tied up in the standoff between Republican leadership and the far right.
OBSERVATION - this bill is not out of the woods yet. There is still strong opposition by some house republicans and it faces a questionable hearing in the Senate where democrats there seemed inclined to reject it in favor of a shut down who’s narrative they believe the democrats can use to shape public opinion in their favor over.
Also note - some govt agencies are pushing the issuing of holiday ‘bonuses’ early if a shut down occurs. This to tide employees over until the govt restarts. When i was in govt, I got caught in the shutdown during Trump. Lost nearly a month’s wages because my position was coded as ‘non essential’.
Biden / Harris Watch –
An from NBC news cites sources close to the Biden family who say the first son’s ongoing legal battles are taking a toll on the 80-year-old president. Biden has “lamented aloud that he might be dead before his son’s case would be resolved,” NBC News reported.
Biden’s anxiety about his son’s legal troubles has kept aides from bringing up the topic around him, NBC News reported:
OBSERVATION - More evidence that the powers that be are tightening the screws on biden to get him to step down from the 2024 campaign. The fact that NBC is bringing this forward is also evidence that the MSM is jumping ship.
Note- Aids keeping the topic silent around biden - similar to aids keeping Hitler in the dark as his armies collapsed around him.
Illegal Immigration –
One of the largest mass illegal crossings we have ever seen took place in Eagle Pass, TX this morning, w/ Border Patrol sources telling us over 2,200 people crossed there since midnight. It happened right next to the port of entry.
OBSERVATION - Huge surges in illegals have been observed in other places along the border as well. This is the best documented so far. BP facilities are totally overwhelmed and they are just dumping arrestees onto the streets.
China –
Reports that of the last couple days Taiwan detected 103 China PLA aircraft with many crossing the into its ADIZ, this being a record high !
OBSERVATION - I noted way back that there is a general trend to such exercises, to increase both in frequency and in number as a potential military action is set to occur. In the past, large deployments were conducted in response to senior US govt reps arriving to Taiwan. There appears to be no equivalent triggering event this time. With rumors of a Chinese army build up getting started, and the chaos that is building both economically and politically in the US that could impair a US military response, China may have decided to up its time table. Also on China’s end, they are experiencing severe economic issues that an invasion could distract the population from.
Also of note - The Chinese Communist Party’s recent purges of potentially compromised officials in its foreign service and defense establishment could indicate preparations for an all-out confrontation with the West over Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
Kim has agreed to supply Russia with Kim agreed to provide Russia with upwards of 10 million artillery rounds, rockets, and MLRS launchers. NK gets in return 40 Su-35 fighters and possibly advanced missile technology.
OBSERVATION - This deal benefits NK more than it does Russia. Russia’s failing logistics system losing capacity to keep up with the war demands and switching to potentially unreliable NK munitions isn’t expected to help much. Kim wanted and got advanced aircraft as well as missile tech - both high on his list to build up those arms of the military.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Kerch Bridge update –
Unconfirmed reports of an (attempted) Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge. Russian sources claim 4 x “Storm Shadow” missiles were shot down - three over Melitopol and one over Henichresk. Some videos suggest some cruise missiles did hit the bridge.
Logistics –
NK has agreed to provide Russia with upwards of 10 million artillery rounds, rockets, and MLRS launchers.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian Military Intelligence says they’ve sunk the Russian Navy ship “Sergey Kotov” in the Black Sea. A project 22160 vessel. According to the representative of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Andrii Yusov. No further details available.
NOTE - Uncertain if this is a new attack, or the result of one of the other attacks last week. Video from the attack on the two Project 22160 vessels last week indicate that one ship had an apparent impact (via thermal lens) near the stern with a second towards the bow (explosion caught on video).
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Becoming pretty much standard fare with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 27 of 30 Shahed drones overnight. Seems Lviv region was the primary target zone.
Continued measured tactical success on the Bakhmut and Tokmok advances.
Tokmak Axis -.
Explosions were reported in Melitopol and Tokmak, likely Russian supply depots or command posts.
Increased success of Ukrainian forces in seizing key portions of the second defense belt south and southeast of Robotyne. In some reported instances, the Russian tank trench barrier in places has been seized by Ukranian forces - seeing up a potential armor breakout scenario.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
It is reported that there was a direct hit on the administration of the head of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin. Donetsk.
Bakhmut Axis -
Consider this with a large dose of propaganda but is being reflected from a number of sources. The Armed Forces broke through the Russian defense line in the direction of Bakhmut — Commander of the Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.
“ Some of the most prepared Russian units (72, 31, 83 brigades) were defeated and lost their fighting capacity. The RU commanders from the 31st & 72nd battalion turned into sunflowers yesterday outside Bakhmut yesterday.”
Elements of two of Russia’s four Airborne (VDV) divisions and three of Russia’s four VDV separate brigades are currently defending the Bakhmut area.
NOTE - Ukraine did a successful seizure of two of the towns south of Bakhmut last week and Russia did announce the loss of some senior units leaders. The Russian units listed have been documented in place for most of this year - trying to support Wagner’s efforts on Bakhmut proper. As such, the much criticized Ukraine stand at Bakhmut served to freeze VDV forces in place to face the meat grinder and deny Russia the ability to redeploy to its planned offensive zones. Now the Bakhmut axis is on the verge of a serious collapse and Russia has little left to stop it.
Kupiansk Front -
Minimal Russian activity, mostly consisting of attacks by small forces.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
One was killed by a drone overnight in the Lviv region. 3 warehouses caught fire as result of drone strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Much of the same as stated over previous weeks. Key areas to keep focused on are Bakhmut and the Tokmok fronts. Both locations show evidence that the Russian defense is crumbling due largely to significant attrition of Russian forces and the advantage Ukraine has in UAV and artillery.
Also watching Crimea as Ukraine continues to surgically pick apart Russia air defense and early warning systems, making it increasingly vulnerable to Ukraine missile and drone attacks. Pressure will be maintained against the Kersch bridge. Pressure will also be maintained against elements of the Black Sea fleet which notably has not been participating the past couple weeks in missile attacks. Fleet facilities in Crimea are increasingly vulnerable eventually will force redeployment of assets to the Russian families in the eastern Black Sea.
Iran –
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu will meet in Tehran today with representatives of the Iranian Armed Forces command, Tasnim agency claims.
OBSERVATION - Probably first on Iranian support to Russia for the Ukraine war as well as now potentially coordinating support to Armenia (see below).
Turkey –
Monitoring potential Turkish involvement in the Armenian/Azeri conflict.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Azerbaijan has launched a major military operation to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. Explosions can be heard in Khankendi/Stepanakert. Azerbaijan has closed its airspace to Armenia.
Azeri justifying the attack as an operation to “restore the constitutional structure of Azerbaijan, local anti-terrorist measures have been started in Karabakh”.
Russian Foreign Ministry claims that its peacekeeping contingent continues to fulfill its tasks amid the situation in Karabakh. Russia deployed about 2,000 “peacekeepers” there in 2020.
OBSERVATION - Its on again. Azeri is gambling that Russia’s woes in Ukraine will prevent effective support to Armenia and that now is the time to seize the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The wild cards being Iran (in general support of Armenia) and Turkey (in general support to Azerbaijan). Armenia is currently outgunned by the Azeri forces but has the capability to put up a stiff defense.
Misc of Note –
Be prepared for disaster during your holiday travels this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) warn in a new Public Service Announcement (PSA), advising travelers to pack an emergency kit filled with everything they need to survive on their own for “several days.”
On Wednesday, September 12, FEMA and TSA issued a joint press release titled:
“FEMA, TSA Share Public Service Announcement Encouraging Travelers to Make a Plan and be Disaster-Ready”
OBSERVATION - Don’t recall any similar warnings in the past. Is this just the TSA being ‘cautious’ or are they telegraphing the development of a potential scenario. The latter fits in to the conspiracy theorist mold, but as we’ve seen, such theories have about a three month shelf life. Worth noting as well as keeping head on swivel even more over the holidays.
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