The days of summer are quickly slipping into fall here in the Redoubt. Critical watch underway on when the first frost will strike. Mrs Z’s cherry tomato bush is loaded down with grape like clusters of wonderfulness that have just started to turn red. Other crops on the verge as well. We are prepared to erect the plastic greenhouse coverings, but our days are numbered. A few more weeks at best before the hard freezes come in that our plastic green houses cannot defend against.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Group of 20 leaders have agreed to a plan to eventually impose digital currencies and digital IDs on their respective populations, despite fears that governments will use them to monitor their peoples’ spending and crush dissent.
The G20, which is currently under India’s presidency, adopted a final declaration on the subject over the weekend in New Delhi.
The meeting, which included the world’s leading economies, announced last week that they had agreed to build the necessary infrastructure to implement digital currencies and IDs.
OBSERVATION - This news has been out there for a few days. The implementation of digital currency and ID’s appears to be focused on a fast track to take place some time in 2024. Global impacts will likely be high with a lot of resistance particularly to digital currency. Here in the US, both will likely cause increased turmoil as the nation will already be embroiled in a presidential election cycle and the aftermath.
This crisis will be one which the WEF et al tries to take advantage of to further its goals. The digital effort will be forcibly emplaced - how much pushback remains to be seen. Potentially another crisis - perhaps false flag event - could be used to accelerate this goal.
Economy –
For the second straight month, overall consumer prices rose month-over-month at the fastest pace in 14 months in August, and while that was driven largely by a 10.5% jump in gasoline prices over the last month. It rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.The CPI now stands at 3.7%.
Rent inflation still stands at 7.8% and shelter inflation stands at 7.3%.
Many of the items that people use every day are still seeing inflation rates well above 5%.
OBSERVATION - Economists are expecting the fed to raise the prime rate again at their next meeting. However, that will have little to do with the rising gasoline prices, being driven by OPEC+, but will likely damage the economy even more, increasing the potential for a hard crash landing recession.
***
Speaking of oil prices. The U.S. Energy Department has talked to oil producers and refiners to ensure stable fuel supplies at a time of rising gasoline prices, Jared Bernstein, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on Wednesday.
“The Energy Department is in touch with producers and refiners to resolve any issues and to try to ensure stable supply,” Bernstein told reporters on Wednesday.
Officials from President Joe Biden’s administration reached out last week to oil industry companies to assess inventory levels and learn of any planned shutdowns of refineries, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary oil output cuts to the end of the year, a U.S. refining source involved in the talks told Reuters.
“The White House wants to make sure everyone is focused here on potentialities for systemic disruptions that could create a supply problem,” said the source, who is not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions.
Gasoline prices jumped 10.6% in August after climbing 0.2% in July, accounting for more than half the increase in the Consumer Price Index.
OBSERVATION - Consider that the regime just canceled (some claim illegally) oil leases in Alaska, combined with the draining of the SPR to near emptiness and other restrictions designed to kill the oil industry, such a call out to producers reeks of massive hypocrisy.
***
Forty percent (40%) of the Global Supply Chain came to a halt today as the Panama Canal shut down. Ships are presently stuck on both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sides of the canal because the lake, which supplies the locks between the two oceans, has suffered a drought and can no longer fill the locks to allow ships to sail through the canal.
Because of the severely reduced freshwater supply, Ships are being ordered to travel with 40% less weight to deal with less water. The Panama government said these restrictions will last at least 10 MORE MONTHS.
OBSERVATION - I noted the problems with the canal and the drought some months ago. It appear now that the situation has gotten worse. This will hit not only the US but global economies with supply shortages and increased costs. This will force ships to travel around South America - increasing fuel and shipping costs and time.
Price increases from shipping will not be stopped by fed rate increases, but made worse.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The White House is sending the letter to news outlets like CNN, The New York Times, and Fox News. It urges (directs) them to “ramp up their scrutiny” of House Republicans “for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies.” That’s the popular talking point – the alleged impeachable conduct by Biden are all just lies. There is no evidence.
OBSERVATION - They aren’t even trying to hide this anymore. This falls on the heels of a 5th Circuit court ruling. In its decision released Friday, the court cites several instances in which the federal government “coerced” or “significantly encouraged” social media platforms to censor content the government didn’t like. Both actions constitute a violation of the First Amendment.
***
A federal judge in New Mexico has issued a restraining order blocking Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s 30-day gun ban.
OBSERVATION - Even a blind man could see this decision coming. Grisham was abandoned by even the most ardent anti-gunners with her declaration. The question remains will she face any accountability. This restraining order may provide enough cover for the NM democrat-controlled legislature to avoid impeachment proceedings.
Illegal Immigration –
Border crossings continue to increase as cooler weather comes to the south. Blue “sanctuary” cities are crying momma over the influx of illegals - swamping their social support systems. This next year things can get real ugly with continued uncontrolled immigration.
China –
The Australian and Philippine governments formally agreed to begin joint patrols in the South China Sea (SCS). This is in part due to recent Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal.
OBSERVATION - China has put increasing pressure on Philippine Islands in the SCS. Things may escalate into actual shooting between elements.
**
See Venezuela below on new agreements
***
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group is operating in the Philippine Sea, being shadowed separately by Republic of China Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers, according to both countries.
Japan’s Joint Staff Office of the Ministry of Defense issued a release stating that at 8 a.m. Wednesday, the Shandong CSG was 403 miles south of Miyako Island, with a map showing the CSG closer to Luzon in the Philippines than to Japan or Taiwan. The CSG consisted of six ships: carrier CNS Shandong (17), destroyers CNS Guilin (164) and CNS Changsha (173), frigates CNS Xianning (500) and CNS Xuchang (536) and fleet oiler CNS Chaganhu (905). The carrier conducted launches and recovery of both fighter aircraft and helicopters, according to the release, which also stated that destroyer JS Ariake (DD-109) was shadowing the CSG.
OBSERVATION - China has been increasing its carrier ops and coordinated maneuvering with other combat vessels. While it is generally agreed that the Shandong doesn’t come close the capabilities of US Carriers, China is looking to project force outside the range of its land based aircraft and onto smaller islands in the region that have limited or no defensive capacities.
North/South Korea –
See Russia below on reciprocal visit of putin to NK.
Japan –
See China above monitoring naval movements.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to visit North Korea, Pyongyang’s state-run KCNA news agency said on Thursday.
The invite came from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during talks with Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
“Putin accepted the invitation with pleasure and reaffirmed his will to invariably carry forward the history and tradition of the Russia-DPRK friendship,” KCNA said.
Earlier, on Wednesday, Kim vowed Pyongyang’s “full and unconditional support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumors that Russia is pulling forces from its eastern regions to bolster defenses in Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 22 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Targeted areas were Mykolaiv, Dnipro city and Kryvyi Rih.
Russia received another blow overnight with the destruction of an S400 complex in Crimea. More than 15 explosions were reported near Yevpatoria (Evpatoria ) this morning. on the coast 40 miles north of Sevastopol.
According to Ukrainian sources, SBU drones hit the “eyes” of the complex — radars and antennas. After disabling the radar, the Navy units hit the S300/400 “Triumph” launch systems with two Neptune cruise missiles.
Ukraine claimed they destroyed 1.2 Billion dollars of S400 systems in the strike. This is questionable as a single battery costs about 600 million and if the Ukraine claim is correct, Russia foolishly clustered two systems together.
Bakhmut Axis -
Reports seem to indicate that the Russian line of defense is potentially on the verge of falling apart along the Bakhmut, Klischiyivka, Andriyivka and Kurdumivka line south of Bakhmut.
OUTLOOK –
Once again, Ukraine nails a critical Russian target. Another S400 system(s) in Crimea incinerated overnight. Those following should be able to see the pattern, Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian air defense radars and systems in Crimea. Previous attacks permitted the strike on the dry dock facilities at Sevastopol. This new hit widens the window even further. Ukraine is doing far more damage with fewer missiles than Russia has been lately. If Ukraine were to get ATCAMS in a timely manner, Russia’s position in Crimea would be seriously endangered.
Still seeing a lot of fog of war on the battle situation on the ground. But it appears that Russia is struggling to respond to the multiple threatening axes of attack Ukraine is operating. Significant gains south of Bakhmut appear to be on the go from both Ukraine and Russian sources. Question is does Russia want to waste resources defending Bakhmut when its forces are facing disaster elsewhere and need those same resources?
In the south, Ukraine is cycling a pattern that is slow but working. Upon seizing ground, dig in for the expected Russian counter attacks and eat those attacks up with their superior artillery support, then move forward again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Russian situation is so dire that Ukraine attacks directly towards Donetsk are gaining momentum.
There is still a good chance that Ukraine will finish opening the defensive line in the Tokmak axis and allow the armor to rampage as the offensive in Kharkiv did this time last year. How close Ukraine is to this goal is unknown, but intel to date indicates they are very close.
Europe / NATO General –
Romanian MFA summoned the Russian ambassador Valery Kuzmin after the third drone penetrated Romanian airspace. Romanian army found a third drone inside Romania, 14 km inland. Military sources state “The danger for the population is real. Fragments could not have flown that far, the drone must have flown till the crash site.”
Romania is reportedly moving air defense systems to the Ukrainian border in response to Russian suicide drones crashing on RO territory. Additionally Romania is :
- Sending troops & EOD teams to the border
- Deploying radars, sensors & air defense systems
- Patrolling the Danube river
OBSERVATION - This is a significant cycling up of Romanian response to Russian attacks spilling over into the country from Ukraine. Some suggest that Romania may set up an air defense zone that covers portions of Ukraine’s port facilities on the Danube currently being targeted by Russia. Russia is treading dangerously close to a more aggressive response by NATO.
***
In addition to Estonia reported yesterday, all Baltic countries have banned the entry of cars with Russian license plates.
***
Bulgaria has decided to place a NATO base on its territory -
“The cost of construction is estimated at 50 million euros, it is planned that it will be completed by 2025”, - reports the Minister of Defense of Bulgaria.
Saudi Arabia –
There are indicators that SA is looking to include the Palestinians in any normalization agreement with Israel.
Syria -
Assad forces open fire on protesters demanding the overthrow of the Assad regime and freedom in the city of Suwayda, southern Syria. According to several sources, there are injuries among the demonstrators.
OBSERVATION - Analysts are noting that Syria is losing ground to ISIS lately due to these protests as well as the mixed gaggle in eastern Syria of Turkish, Iranian, US and Syrian forces.
**
The Beirut-based al-Mayadeen reports that IAF fighter jets launched missiles from over northern Lebanon toward the Syrian city of Homs. Syrian state media says a second alleged Israeli strike, in the Hama area, caused material losses.
Venezuela -
China and Venezuela have signed new agreements on economy, trade, and tourism. Venezuela is seeking membership in BRICS and still maintains the potential for restoring its oil industry - but will need outside help.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that, in his opinion, the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh did not cope with its task. Pashinyan also stated that “Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Armenian authorities can no longer rely on the Russian Federation as a guarantor of their security”
OBSERVATION - Armenia is out gunned by Azeri forces and Russia’s backing has been the only thing that has kept them in check. That overt support is gone and Russia isn’t happy the Armenians are looking elsewhere for help.
The American People in their rush to get rid of President Trump. And in their infinite wisdom, turned the reins of Government over to some very wicked, and evil people to rule over them. And the good part is that they are not through. There was a Latin saying, Translated or transliterated to English it goes as follows: The voice of the people is the voice of God. How can the People go wrong with Joe Biden 81 million voters can't be wrong.
Craziness seems to be at a high level today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Government schools and local libraries should be used for “socialist organizing,” the self-proclaimed “Marxist lesbian” chief of the American Library Association (ALA) proclaimed at a major socialism conference last week. The library boss has also becoming notorious recently for hating on parents, families, Christians and anyone else who stands in the way of indoctrinating children.
Speaking after a panel at the Socialism 2023 conference in Chicago organized by a coalition of revolutionaries advocating for the “right” of children to engage in prostitution, among other absurdities, ALA chief Emily Drabinski did not hold back. “Public education needs to be a site of socialist organizing,” she told attendees, many of them actual communists
OBSERVATION - This action is not done in a vacuum, it reflects globalist plans to control all aspect of the lives of children - including separation for parental control. Big on the red flags is the push now for child prostitution protection and to participate in adult / child sex.
***
Has there ever been a time in world history when so much stupidity has been generated by a patently false ideology? Well, sure, socialism. But climate hysteria is making a run for it on the outside, now closing rapidly with socialism.
The latest is the United Nations telling us to completely revamp how we construct buildings. Actually, its message is to stop building at all. So as to achieve “net zero,” i.e., civilizational collapse.
There is much at the link, and no doubt much more in the report itself. For now, I just want to note this:
The solution also requires, in its implementation, sensitivity to local cultures and climates, including the common perception of concrete and steel as modern materials of choice.
“Until recently, most buildings were constructed using locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Yet modern materials such as concrete and steel often give only the illusion of durability, usually ending up in landfills and contributing to the growing climate crisis,” said Sheila Aggarwal-Khan, Director of UNEP’s Industry and Economy Division.
“Net zero in the building and construction sector is achievable by 2050, as long as governments put in place the right policy, incentives and regulation to bring a shift the industry action,” she added.
Until recently, buildings were made from locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Right. “Recently” being the 19th century. Next time we build a skyscraper, let’s make it out of bamboo!
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/09/u-n-says-build-with-bamboo.php
OBSERVATION - I’m sorry, a grass hut here in the Redoubt is unthinkable. Perhaps partially buried sod house, but then lets all run back to the stone age.
Economy –
The shoe has dropped. More than 10,000 staff at three of biggest US carmakers have gone on strike, their union says.
Work has been stopped at three plants owned by General Motors (GM), Ford and Stellantis. It came after labour contracts expired on Thursday night. The United Autoworkers Union (UAW) said the firms had not put forward acceptable offers.
The fight threatens to trigger higher prices for buyers and major disruption for the motor industry giants.
The union is seeking a 40% pay increase for its roughly 140,000 members over four years, noting a comparable rise in pay for company leaders.
Other demands included:
- a four-day working week
- the return of automatic pay increases tied to inflation
- stricter limits on how long workers can be considered “temporary” staff who do not receive union benefits
OBSERVATION - An autoworker strike – even if it’s short – could disrupt the largest manufacturing sector in the US and potentially send us into a recession. If the economic threat wasn’t significant enough, the unions are also gaining political influence and acting more like swing voters as the availability of labor decreases. Right now the administration appears to have its hands tied. To go against the unions will be seen by other unions as a overall abandonment of unions by democrats. OTOH, allowing the strike to inflame recessionary and inflation pressures ahead of the 2024 election cycle is not very palatable either.
***
After yesterday’s hotter than expected rebound in CPI, all eyes were on PPI for evidence of the future trend of inflation. The numbers were not good.
Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM in August (up from +0.3% in July and hotter than the +0.4% exp). That is the hottest PPI since June 2022, and pushed YoY prices up 1.6%.
OBSERVATION - This will pressure the Fed to raise rates more - and generate the increased likelihood of a serous recession in the near future.
***
Mortgage rates rose, remaining above 7% for a fifth straight week.
The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 7.18% from 7.12% a week earlier, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.
It was around 6% a year earlier and less than 3% two years earlier.
OBSERVATION - There is no sign of a recovering housing sector in the near future.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The American nuclear submarine USS Florida entered the Norwegian port of Tromso, according to the 6th Fleet of the US Navy. The Ohio-class submarine is equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,600 km.
Tromsø is located in northern Norway, just 382 km from the Russian border.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
I’ve seen these numbers floating around the intewebs the past few days. How accurate they are depends on the interoperation of the CDC data, but in part they ring true.
1 million mRNA COVID shots for teens will prevent 0–1 COVID deaths and cause 100,000–200,000 severe side effects, according to the CDC’s own data.
Now the 0-19 demographics was one of the least impacted ages for wuhan infections - know fact - so the very low death prevention is likely in the ball park. The potentially controversial claim of up to 200K sever side effects also tracks what has already been documented by VARS and follow on studies.
Both of these indicate that the CDC is foolish to recommend that the youth get jabbed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday temporarily blocked a lower court order curbing Biden administration efforts to combat controversial social media posts on topics including COVID-19 and election security.
White House communications staffers, the surgeon general and the FBI are among those affected by the order, which resulted from a lawsuit claiming the White House and executive branch agencies unconstitutionally squelched conservative points of view. The administration asked the Supreme Court to put the order on hold while it prepares an appeal.
The lower court order was to take effect Monday. Thursday’s Supreme Court order delays the effective date until Sept. 22. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit have until Wednesday to file a response.
OBSERVATION - Can’t really call this a win for biden, it only delays the implementation of the order to give the DoJ an opportunity to prepare an appeal which likely will be to the whole of the 5th Circuit court.
***
Hunter Biden was criminally charged Thursday, after efforts to reach a plea deal failed, leading to the first ever prosecution of a sitting president’s child.
The indictment filed Thursday by the U.S. District Court in Delaware charged three criminal counts related to making false statements in connection with the purchase of a firearm and illegally possessing the firearm as a drug addict.
OBSERVATION - This indictment is low hanging fruit. There are many more serious charges pending grand jury approval. But this could be the crack in the dam that breaks this all open - an likely torpedo the elder biden’s hopes for a second term. Perhaps this is why the MSM is suddenly abandoning biden’s credibility all of a sudden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a speech on Bidenomics, President Biden said, “particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans — you know, the workers without high school diplomas...”
Biden was also randomly screaming during his speech.
OBSERVATION - biden’s brain has turned to mush and his drugs are no longer keeping his dementia in check - plus it appears that his handlers are letting him hang himself in public events. This is scary, the guy that holds the nuclear button in his hand.
***
CNN is now listing out all of President Joe Biden’s lies as the New York Post and Washington Post are also ramping up their criticism of Biden.
Some are noting how this change in coverage has hit at the same time. Also, this is right after hunter’s indictment for gun violations.
OBSERVATION - Could this be an indicator that the swamp is turning on Biden in an effort to have him removed from the 2024 ticket? If we are to believe polls at this stage of the race, biden is a disaster, losing key demographic in a big way to Trump and with an impending recession is making him a popular as a root canal.
Illegal Immigration –
The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals extended a reprieve for the 1,000-foot buoy barrier in the Rio Grande River at Eagle Pass, Texas. Texas can keep the barrier up for at least 3 more weeks.
The next hearing is set for October 5 on whether or not the buoy barrier is illegal.
China –
Suspicion over the unexplained weeks-long absence of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu deepened on Friday, as leading western newspapers reported he was subject to a probe and a top U.S. diplomat questioned whether he was under house arrest.
Li, 65, has missed meetings with Vietnamese and Singaporean defense leaders in recent weeks, according to sources with direct knowledge of the engagements. He was last seen in Beijing on Aug. 29 delivering a keynote address at a security forum with African nations.
Citing U.S. officials, the Washington Post reported Li was under investigation for corruption and will likely be removed from his post. The Wall Street Journal also reported Li was being removed from office while the Financial Times earlier said the U.S. government believes Li is under investigation.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-defense-minister-li-shangfu/2023/09/15/id/1134585/
OBSERVATION - Interesting shifting of leadership around. Could there be some unsatisfactory preparations for a Taiwan attack as a cause?
North/South Korea –
Kim continues his Russian visit.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia has declared parts of Bulgaria’s economic zone in the Black Sea off limits due to claimed Russian ‘exercise’ See more under Europe / NATO General below.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine .
Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia increased the key rate to 13% from 12% per annum
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 17 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
News coming out of continued pressure on Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The Russian project 22160 patrol ships “Vasily Bykov” in the Black Sea was attacked by naval UAVs. Evidence of one waterline strike, though Russia denies any damage. Ukraine claims a second project 22160 patrol ship was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones and was damaged as well.
Ukraine has also announced the liberation of Andriivka- see below
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine has officially announced that the 3rd Assault Brigade has liberated Andriivka. In the process, it completely eliminated Russian 72nd Motorized Brigade. Ukraine claims it quickly surrounded the Russian garrison of Andriivka cutting it off from the main forces and destroyed.
As a result Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- the chief of the brigade intelligence;
- three battalion commanders;
- and almost all the infantry of the 72nd brigade, together with officers and a significant amount of equipment.
Loss of this village is placing severe pressure on the southern flank of Russia’s positions in Bakhmut.
Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children declared in settlements of Kherson region next to frontline. Twenty eight cities / towns in all. This is essentially the whole right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Speculation is that Ukraine is planning on opening up a major attack in the region and these cities would be targets as Ukraine logistics / ammo move forward to support the river crossing.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Last night’s drone activity targeted Starokostyantyniv of Khmelnitsky region.
OUTLOOK –
While things have slowed on the ground in the south, what appears to be consequences of laterally pulling forces out of eastern Ukraine is biting Russia hard in the Bakhmut area. The loss of Andriivka (town is now just rubble), is a serious tactical blow to Russian defense of Bakhmut.
Recent Russia senior officer losses also reflect the desperate defense Russia is fighting. When senior command comes this far forward in order to maintain control of their forces, things go wrong. And Ukraine identification and targeting of command posts has been devastating to Russia.
Russia is also losing any edge it had in the Black Sea. Its navy is no longer able to deploy in the region without the potential challenge by Ukraine drones - both sea and air borne. Remember with me the early threat of a Russia amphibious operation to seize the Odessa region. Now that threat is completely gone due to the loss of major amphibious vessels. At least 3 of the Rocha class are out, pulse many smaller vessels. These vessels have been largely switched to shuttling war materials between Russia and Crimea due to the damaged Kerch Bridge.
The loss of the second S400 system has opened Crimea up even wider to drone and cruise missile attacks on key facilities.
Now, I’m watching the Tokmok axis even more closely as it would take much more before a substantial break out could occur - and on a rapid basis.
Europe / NATO General –
Both Houses of UK Parliament have just approved the Home Secretary’s motion to add the Wagner Group to a list of proscribed terrorist organizations.
***
Romania has declared an ‘Aerial Interdiction area’ along the Danube River Delta. No-fly zone now covers 20-30kms from the River Danube and up to 4,000 meters.
OBSERVATION - Will Russia challenge this zone?
***
Russia has declared portions of Bulgaria’s economic exclusion zone of the Black Sea off limits due to “military exercises”. Bulgaria is consulting with NATO allies regarding any response. While this is outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, the act is considered provocative and would act to pressure Ukraine grain shipments through the zone. Any Russian aggression towards any Bulgarian vessel could trigger Article 5 response. One way to protest such a declaration is to place Bulgarian vessels in the zone. Russia backdown from a similar declaration in the North Atlantic a year ago.
***
Lithuania plans to seize Russian cars that are already in the EU
The confiscation of cars with Russian license plates will also affect those already in the EU in the future, the Lithuanian customs office has warned.
Now Finland plans to ban Russian vehicles from entering the country
“Every Russian who owns a car registered in Russia must leave with this vehicle in third countries, in the Russian Federation, Belarus,” said the head of Lithuanian customs Darius Žvironas. Estonia also warned about similar measures: cars with Russian license plates in the country should be re-registered or seized, said the head of the Interior Ministry.
OBSERVATION - The Baltic countries with Poland have been very outspoken against Russia and its war on Ukraine. These moves put pressure on ‘every day’ Russians to feel the pinch they have so far not felt from the war. Its aggressive nature is sure to bring out a hard Russia response, but any retribution by Russia will likely be muted to a degree in order to avoid a growing NATO confrontation.
Syria -
RUMINT - Bashar al-Assad wants to crown himself. The Elaf newspaper reported that the dictator of Syria wants to change the system of government in the country to a republican monarchy. Assad thus wants to ensure the safety of his family and the unimpeded transit of power to his son.
Black Swans
There is now a 95% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the coming Northern Hemisphere winter.
On Thursday, NOAA forecasters published a monthly update highlighting a strengthening El Niño pattern in the central and east Pacific. According to that update, there is a 71% chance that this winter’s El Niño will be classified as “strong.”