Craziness seems to be at a high level today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Government schools and local libraries should be used for “socialist organizing,” the self-proclaimed “Marxist lesbian” chief of the American Library Association (ALA) proclaimed at a major socialism conference last week. The library boss has also becoming notorious recently for hating on parents, families, Christians and anyone else who stands in the way of indoctrinating children.
Speaking after a panel at the Socialism 2023 conference in Chicago organized by a coalition of revolutionaries advocating for the “right” of children to engage in prostitution, among other absurdities, ALA chief Emily Drabinski did not hold back. “Public education needs to be a site of socialist organizing,” she told attendees, many of them actual communists
OBSERVATION - This action is not done in a vacuum, it reflects globalist plans to control all aspect of the lives of children - including separation for parental control. Big on the red flags is the push now for child prostitution protection and to participate in adult / child sex.
***
Has there ever been a time in world history when so much stupidity has been generated by a patently false ideology? Well, sure, socialism. But climate hysteria is making a run for it on the outside, now closing rapidly with socialism.
The latest is the United Nations telling us to completely revamp how we construct buildings. Actually, its message is to stop building at all. So as to achieve “net zero,” i.e., civilizational collapse.
There is much at the link, and no doubt much more in the report itself. For now, I just want to note this:
The solution also requires, in its implementation, sensitivity to local cultures and climates, including the common perception of concrete and steel as modern materials of choice.
“Until recently, most buildings were constructed using locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Yet modern materials such as concrete and steel often give only the illusion of durability, usually ending up in landfills and contributing to the growing climate crisis,” said Sheila Aggarwal-Khan, Director of UNEP’s Industry and Economy Division.
“Net zero in the building and construction sector is achievable by 2050, as long as governments put in place the right policy, incentives and regulation to bring a shift the industry action,” she added.
Until recently, buildings were made from locally sourced earth, stone, timber, and bamboo. Right. “Recently” being the 19th century. Next time we build a skyscraper, let’s make it out of bamboo!
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/09/u-n-says-build-with-bamboo.php
OBSERVATION - I’m sorry, a grass hut here in the Redoubt is unthinkable. Perhaps partially buried sod house, but then lets all run back to the stone age.
Economy –
The shoe has dropped. More than 10,000 staff at three of biggest US carmakers have gone on strike, their union says.
Work has been stopped at three plants owned by General Motors (GM), Ford and Stellantis. It came after labour contracts expired on Thursday night. The United Autoworkers Union (UAW) said the firms had not put forward acceptable offers.
The fight threatens to trigger higher prices for buyers and major disruption for the motor industry giants.
The union is seeking a 40% pay increase for its roughly 140,000 members over four years, noting a comparable rise in pay for company leaders.
Other demands included:
- a four-day working week
- the return of automatic pay increases tied to inflation
- stricter limits on how long workers can be considered “temporary” staff who do not receive union benefits
OBSERVATION - An autoworker strike – even if it’s short – could disrupt the largest manufacturing sector in the US and potentially send us into a recession. If the economic threat wasn’t significant enough, the unions are also gaining political influence and acting more like swing voters as the availability of labor decreases. Right now the administration appears to have its hands tied. To go against the unions will be seen by other unions as a overall abandonment of unions by democrats. OTOH, allowing the strike to inflame recessionary and inflation pressures ahead of the 2024 election cycle is not very palatable either.
***
After yesterday’s hotter than expected rebound in CPI, all eyes were on PPI for evidence of the future trend of inflation. The numbers were not good.
Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM in August (up from +0.3% in July and hotter than the +0.4% exp). That is the hottest PPI since June 2022, and pushed YoY prices up 1.6%.
OBSERVATION - This will pressure the Fed to raise rates more - and generate the increased likelihood of a serous recession in the near future.
***
Mortgage rates rose, remaining above 7% for a fifth straight week.
The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 7.18% from 7.12% a week earlier, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.
It was around 6% a year earlier and less than 3% two years earlier.
OBSERVATION - There is no sign of a recovering housing sector in the near future.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The American nuclear submarine USS Florida entered the Norwegian port of Tromso, according to the 6th Fleet of the US Navy. The Ohio-class submarine is equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,600 km.
Tromsø is located in northern Norway, just 382 km from the Russian border.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
I’ve seen these numbers floating around the intewebs the past few days. How accurate they are depends on the interoperation of the CDC data, but in part they ring true.
1 million mRNA COVID shots for teens will prevent 0–1 COVID deaths and cause 100,000–200,000 severe side effects, according to the CDC’s own data.
Now the 0-19 demographics was one of the least impacted ages for wuhan infections - know fact - so the very low death prevention is likely in the ball park. The potentially controversial claim of up to 200K sever side effects also tracks what has already been documented by VARS and follow on studies.
Both of these indicate that the CDC is foolish to recommend that the youth get jabbed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday temporarily blocked a lower court order curbing Biden administration efforts to combat controversial social media posts on topics including COVID-19 and election security.
White House communications staffers, the surgeon general and the FBI are among those affected by the order, which resulted from a lawsuit claiming the White House and executive branch agencies unconstitutionally squelched conservative points of view. The administration asked the Supreme Court to put the order on hold while it prepares an appeal.
The lower court order was to take effect Monday. Thursday’s Supreme Court order delays the effective date until Sept. 22. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit have until Wednesday to file a response.
OBSERVATION - Can’t really call this a win for biden, it only delays the implementation of the order to give the DoJ an opportunity to prepare an appeal which likely will be to the whole of the 5th Circuit court.
***
Hunter Biden was criminally charged Thursday, after efforts to reach a plea deal failed, leading to the first ever prosecution of a sitting president’s child.
The indictment filed Thursday by the U.S. District Court in Delaware charged three criminal counts related to making false statements in connection with the purchase of a firearm and illegally possessing the firearm as a drug addict.
OBSERVATION - This indictment is low hanging fruit. There are many more serious charges pending grand jury approval. But this could be the crack in the dam that breaks this all open - an likely torpedo the elder biden’s hopes for a second term. Perhaps this is why the MSM is suddenly abandoning biden’s credibility all of a sudden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a speech on Bidenomics, President Biden said, “particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans — you know, the workers without high school diplomas...”
Biden was also randomly screaming during his speech.
OBSERVATION - biden’s brain has turned to mush and his drugs are no longer keeping his dementia in check - plus it appears that his handlers are letting him hang himself in public events. This is scary, the guy that holds the nuclear button in his hand.
***
CNN is now listing out all of President Joe Biden’s lies as the New York Post and Washington Post are also ramping up their criticism of Biden.
Some are noting how this change in coverage has hit at the same time. Also, this is right after hunter’s indictment for gun violations.
OBSERVATION - Could this be an indicator that the swamp is turning on Biden in an effort to have him removed from the 2024 ticket? If we are to believe polls at this stage of the race, biden is a disaster, losing key demographic in a big way to Trump and with an impending recession is making him a popular as a root canal.
Illegal Immigration –
The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals extended a reprieve for the 1,000-foot buoy barrier in the Rio Grande River at Eagle Pass, Texas. Texas can keep the barrier up for at least 3 more weeks.
The next hearing is set for October 5 on whether or not the buoy barrier is illegal.
China –
Suspicion over the unexplained weeks-long absence of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu deepened on Friday, as leading western newspapers reported he was subject to a probe and a top U.S. diplomat questioned whether he was under house arrest.
Li, 65, has missed meetings with Vietnamese and Singaporean defense leaders in recent weeks, according to sources with direct knowledge of the engagements. He was last seen in Beijing on Aug. 29 delivering a keynote address at a security forum with African nations.
Citing U.S. officials, the Washington Post reported Li was under investigation for corruption and will likely be removed from his post. The Wall Street Journal also reported Li was being removed from office while the Financial Times earlier said the U.S. government believes Li is under investigation.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-defense-minister-li-shangfu/2023/09/15/id/1134585/
OBSERVATION - Interesting shifting of leadership around. Could there be some unsatisfactory preparations for a Taiwan attack as a cause?
North/South Korea –
Kim continues his Russian visit.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia has declared parts of Bulgaria’s economic zone in the Black Sea off limits due to claimed Russian ‘exercise’ See more under Europe / NATO General below.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine .
Economic Impact –
The Bank of Russia increased the key rate to 13% from 12% per annum
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 17 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
News coming out of continued pressure on Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The Russian project 22160 patrol ships “Vasily Bykov” in the Black Sea was attacked by naval UAVs. Evidence of one waterline strike, though Russia denies any damage. Ukraine claims a second project 22160 patrol ship was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones and was damaged as well.
Ukraine has also announced the liberation of Andriivka- see below
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine has officially announced that the 3rd Assault Brigade has liberated Andriivka. In the process, it completely eliminated Russian 72nd Motorized Brigade. Ukraine claims it quickly surrounded the Russian garrison of Andriivka cutting it off from the main forces and destroyed.
As a result Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- the chief of the brigade intelligence;
- three battalion commanders;
- and almost all the infantry of the 72nd brigade, together with officers and a significant amount of equipment.
Loss of this village is placing severe pressure on the southern flank of Russia’s positions in Bakhmut.
Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children declared in settlements of Kherson region next to frontline. Twenty eight cities / towns in all. This is essentially the whole right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Speculation is that Ukraine is planning on opening up a major attack in the region and these cities would be targets as Ukraine logistics / ammo move forward to support the river crossing.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Last night’s drone activity targeted Starokostyantyniv of Khmelnitsky region.
OUTLOOK –
While things have slowed on the ground in the south, what appears to be consequences of laterally pulling forces out of eastern Ukraine is biting Russia hard in the Bakhmut area. The loss of Andriivka (town is now just rubble), is a serious tactical blow to Russian defense of Bakhmut.
Recent Russia senior officer losses also reflect the desperate defense Russia is fighting. When senior command comes this far forward in order to maintain control of their forces, things go wrong. And Ukraine identification and targeting of command posts has been devastating to Russia.
Russia is also losing any edge it had in the Black Sea. Its navy is no longer able to deploy in the region without the potential challenge by Ukraine drones - both sea and air borne. Remember with me the early threat of a Russia amphibious operation to seize the Odessa region. Now that threat is completely gone due to the loss of major amphibious vessels. At least 3 of the Rocha class are out, pulse many smaller vessels. These vessels have been largely switched to shuttling war materials between Russia and Crimea due to the damaged Kerch Bridge.
The loss of the second S400 system has opened Crimea up even wider to drone and cruise missile attacks on key facilities.
Now, I’m watching the Tokmok axis even more closely as it would take much more before a substantial break out could occur - and on a rapid basis.
Europe / NATO General –
Both Houses of UK Parliament have just approved the Home Secretary’s motion to add the Wagner Group to a list of proscribed terrorist organizations.
***
Romania has declared an ‘Aerial Interdiction area’ along the Danube River Delta. No-fly zone now covers 20-30kms from the River Danube and up to 4,000 meters.
OBSERVATION - Will Russia challenge this zone?
***
Russia has declared portions of Bulgaria’s economic exclusion zone of the Black Sea off limits due to “military exercises”. Bulgaria is consulting with NATO allies regarding any response. While this is outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, the act is considered provocative and would act to pressure Ukraine grain shipments through the zone. Any Russian aggression towards any Bulgarian vessel could trigger Article 5 response. One way to protest such a declaration is to place Bulgarian vessels in the zone. Russia backdown from a similar declaration in the North Atlantic a year ago.
***
Lithuania plans to seize Russian cars that are already in the EU
The confiscation of cars with Russian license plates will also affect those already in the EU in the future, the Lithuanian customs office has warned.
Now Finland plans to ban Russian vehicles from entering the country
“Every Russian who owns a car registered in Russia must leave with this vehicle in third countries, in the Russian Federation, Belarus,” said the head of Lithuanian customs Darius Žvironas. Estonia also warned about similar measures: cars with Russian license plates in the country should be re-registered or seized, said the head of the Interior Ministry.
OBSERVATION - The Baltic countries with Poland have been very outspoken against Russia and its war on Ukraine. These moves put pressure on ‘every day’ Russians to feel the pinch they have so far not felt from the war. Its aggressive nature is sure to bring out a hard Russia response, but any retribution by Russia will likely be muted to a degree in order to avoid a growing NATO confrontation.
Syria -
RUMINT - Bashar al-Assad wants to crown himself. The Elaf newspaper reported that the dictator of Syria wants to change the system of government in the country to a republican monarchy. Assad thus wants to ensure the safety of his family and the unimpeded transit of power to his son.
Black Swans
There is now a 95% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the coming Northern Hemisphere winter.
On Thursday, NOAA forecasters published a monthly update highlighting a strengthening El Niño pattern in the central and east Pacific. According to that update, there is a 71% chance that this winter’s El Niño will be classified as “strong.”
Globalism / Great Reset –
Non-profit news agencies Mongabay and the New Humanitarian published a joint report on Wednesday that debunked the United Nations’ extravagant claims of “climate neutrality.”
What the U.N. is actually doing, according to the report, is buying millions of dollars worth of “carbon credits” to “offset” its substantial emissions. Some of the projects that are supposedly “offsetting” the U.N.’s emissions are actually damaging the environment — or even the health of human beings.
“Carbon credits” are basically a shell game in which carbon emitters buy “permits” to spew more carbon dioxide from industries supposedly reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Environmental regulations have turned the carbon credit market into a grotesque billion-dollar “industry” that does not actually produce anything — it merely shuffles paperwork so that agencies and corporations can claim they are “carbon neutral” even though they still have prodigious emissions
OBSERVATION - WEF mouthpieces continue to harp on individuals purchasing ‘carbon credits’ as part of the global digital currency scam that will eventually track your carbon usage and punish you for eating too much beef. The scam of these ‘credits’ has been exposed for years now, but the woke elements of society keep it up for virtue signaling reasons.
***
On September 20th our representatives meeting at the United Nations (UN) will sign off on a ‘Declaration’ titled: “Political Declaration of the United Nations General Assembly High-level Meeting on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response.”
This was announced as a ‘silence procedure,’ meaning that States not responding will be deemed supporters of the text. The document expresses a new policy pathway for managing populations when the World Health Organization (WHO), the health arm of the UN, declares a future viral variant to be a ‘public health emergency of international concern.’
The WHO noted in 2019 that pandemics are rare, and insignificant in terms of overall mortality over the last century. Since then, it decided that the 2019 old-normal population were simply oblivious to impending annihilation. The WHO and the entire UN system now consider pandemics an existential and imminent threat.
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-uns-new-political-declaration-on-pandemics/
OBSERVATION - Currently, the globalists are trying to set up a one-two punch to accelerate their plans to execute the ‘great reset’ Plan one is a global medical dictatorship weaseled into current treaties - the pending WHO treaty modifications to dictate ‘medical actions’. The second is the push for a global “climate” emergency to destroy economies to stop global warming. These are getting closer to kick off time folks. The WHO is expected now to issue the changes next year.
A third punch - something to trigger an economic disaster is still forming on the horizon .
Economy –
UAW strikes against the Big 3 US automakers enters another day with no off ramp in sight. Battle lines politically are developing fast.
In a strongly worded statement, the President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Suzanne P. Clark, squarely blamed President Biden for the historic strike by members of the United Auto Workers union, the first simultaneous walkout on all three major Detroit automakers.
According to Clark, the strike and subsequent fallout were attributed to President Biden’s encouragement of unions to assert their influence, even if it poses a threat to the U.S. economy. Clark described the strike and the broader trend of labor actions as a result of the Biden administration’s comprehensive approach to promoting unionization.
Currently, biden is siding with the strikers - saying “no-one” wanted industrial action, but he understood worker frustration.”
“Workers deserve a fair share,” he said. “The companies have made some significant offers, but I believe it should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts.”
Biden’s support is targeted at wooing the unions back to him. The UAW in May said it would not endorse his re-election campaign, citing concerns that government subsidies for firms working on electric vehicles had not been accompanied by commitments to workers.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry in general has shot itself in the foot by going whole hog into the EV scam. The current economy has further hurt sales due to gross high prices combined with record loan interest rates. How can afford a loan on a $100 K car/truck and pay the mortagage/rent? Combine that with hyper politics from union leadership trying to build on a weak democrat presidential candidate - well go much for the auto industry.
Link to an article that brings more insight to the fall of the auto industry.
IN RELATED
Sen. Bernie Sanders addressed striking autoworkers in Detroit on Friday, calling on working people across the U.S. to stand in solidarity with the walkout.
Sanders called out General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares and Ford CEO Jim Farley, all of whom made over $20 million last year, about their pay.
“It is time for you to end your greed,” Sanders said. “It is time for you to treat your employees with the respect and dignity they deserve. It is time to sit down and negotiate a fair contract.”
The independent senator from Vermont has promoted the strikes as a pivotal moment in a broader campaign to raise living standards for working people across the U.S.
“Let us stand together to end corporate greed, let us stand together to rebuild the disappearing middle class, let us create an economy that works for all, not just the one percent,” Sanders said.
“Let us all, every American, in every state in this country stand with the UAW,” the senator said.
OBSERVATION - Socialist/communists like Sanders live in a bubble from the past. Demanding all support the strikers, but completely ignorant as to the fact that this strike is going to hurt them further in the wallet. Unions have been on the decline for many years now due to corrupt practices and sponging off members dues. I don’t think that forcing even higher auto prices on non-UAW workers is going to gather much support either.
Remember - for the left, they will willingly burn it all down as long as they can rule over the ashes.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
An armed man who was wearing a U.S. Marshal’s badge and carrying federal ID who claimed to be part of the security detail for Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was arrested Friday afternoon at an appearance in Los Angeles by Kennedy. Event security intercepted him as he was trying to approach Kennedy. No shots were fired in the incident. He had two shoulder holsters and a bunch of ammo.
OBSERVATION - I’ve warned about assassination attempts this election cycle. So far, Kennedy has been denied Secret Service protection as a democrat candidate for the presidency. This is growing into a very dangerous scenario.
***
U.S. District Court Judge David Urias, a Biden appointee, issued a temporary restraining order against Grisham’s gun grab until the next hearing in early October.
Judge Urias said Grisham violated the rights of law-abiding citizens to defend themselves.
On Friday, Governor Grisham ‘amended’ her unconstitutional order. She is not complying with the Court’s restraining order.
OBSERVATION - Her ‘amended’ order should be going to the judge asap. This is an example of the lawlessness of democrat leftist leadership and should provide a good picture of how they will act if/when things go sideways. They think by ‘tweaking’ their orders, they can get around clear court decisions.
***
According to NBC, the FBI has created a standalone unit to deal with “threats and harassment by people who think they haven’t been tough enough on the president’s son.”
They also talk about threats that have:
“coincided with attacks on the FBI and the Justice Department by congressional Republicans and former President Donald Trump, who have accused both agencies of participating in a conspiracy to subvert justice amid two federal indictments of Trump.”
So, read that again. They’ve created a unit to investigate “threats,” and the media is attaching it to Republicans raising questions about the two-tier system of justice.
OBSERVATION - Continuing trend to weaponize the govt against the American people. The depth of the govt’s overall posture of identifying and potentially criminalizing citizens opposed to govt polices and corruption has really grown in my eyes over the past couple years and seems to be taking off even higher of late. More an more it seems the DoJ/FBI and other alphabet agencies are preparing to go hot - and in the approach to presidential elections that is increasingly looking to be a disaster for biden.
***
The folks at Forward Observer are reporting that Anarchist networks are planning rallies and protests in 70+ cities throughout September and October to build momentum for a mass direct action event on Monday, 13 November, at “Cop City,” a colloquial name for the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center outside Atlanta, Georgia.
OBSERVATION - It will be interesting to see how successful Antifa et al will be in getting turnout at these rallies. They have been experiencing very low turn out and generally there have been no national level events to drive increased participation. What is certain is that things will be hot in Atlanta as a renewed push to close down construction will reach a fever pitch again. One thing is certain, Atlanta officials are ready to play hard ball with them given the RICO charges against 61 of these leftists from earlier associated violence.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
There is a lot of talk of an increase in US forces being stationed in Europe, especially Poland. The combat brigade of the 101st is still there, but talk of a brigade armored task force arriving as well. Overall numbers in the 100K range. Some is troop rotation related, but is interesting that if true, increases are going in under the US public radar.
Russia’s intelligence would also be noting an increase.
I’m not convinced that the reports on increase are legit at this time but worth digging into and monitoring for definite changes. Just making a place marker for future reference if needed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Reminder - on Jan 11, 2017, nine days before trump took office, fauci is on record saying that “no doubt trump will face surprise infectious disease outbreak”. Wuhan was already in the works folks.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep McCarthy is in the fight for his speakership with increasing calls for his removal following a year of failed promises, pulling back from a budget battle and going forward with a biden et al impeachment. This internal scrum almost makes certain that the govt will shut down Oct 1 as the internal fighting has essentially stopped legislative movement in getting the financing bills passed and over to the Senate where democrats there are very likely to vote them down - making the democrat / republican stalemate even worse.
***
The clarity of the reasoning for the hunter biden indictments on gun crime is clear - those charges have the least connection to biden white house and corruption associated with the “big guy”.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden retreats to Delaware for another vacation. He’s spent 40% of his time on vacation since becoming president.
Illegal Immigration –
Angry NY’rs went off on AOC and Nadler demanding that the govt ‘close the border’. The shine is off the progressive plan to replace Americans and they are getting an earful. Of course they will ignore these ignorant masses demands. . . .
***
Newly-elected Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has announced his plan to relocate about 1,600 illegal immigrants housed in different police stations in the city to special tent communities.
This also comes as Johnson urged residents to make a “sacrifice” for the greater good, claiming that things could be much worse if they do not.
“These families are coming to the city of Chicago,” Johnson stated. “If we do not provide support for these individuals and these families, that type of desperation will lead to chaos. There is a great sacrifice that is going to be required at this moment, sacrifices we are prepared to make to ensure that this city is not chaotic and is not riddled with desperate people.”
The plan to house the illegals in tent communities only contributed to the increasing tensions and pushback from residents, who were concerned about the influx of migrants arriving in the city.
OBSERVATION - Remember that the great claim of the progressive left is that these illegals are coming here for the work that ‘white’ Americans are refusing to do? Reality is hitting the liberals in these blue cities hard as they are facing a fraction of the chaos borders states are feeling.
Chicagoans are not feeling much like ‘sacrificing’ to these illegals, as it is biting into the support and political visibility of the democrat social welfare class who now has to complete for govt resources with these intruders.
China –
Discussion on the interwebs concerning whether or not China as commenced a military buildup along the coast as a precursor to a Taiwan invasion. Parallel example would be how the buildup by Russia for the Ukraine war developed. There is one key difference here and that is the close hold China has on such open source observations and reporting. Russia had eyes everywhere reporting deployment locations, sizes, types, etc. It was hardly a surprise having seen the build up for six months. China has far fewer eyes on its buildup. That is not to say that national level intelligence assets cannot monitor developments, but those reports are not open to public consumption.
Analysts are looking at China’s responses to Russia’s failures in Ukraine, with the focus being the logistics failures that killed the initial offensive and has kept Russia on its heels ever since. China notes that Ukraine’s dogged attacks on logistics (fuel and ammo) hurt Russia badly as it was not set up to deliver on such a large scale.
China taking logistics as a key critical component of any invasion. They can get the troops there, but sustaining combat with storages of fuel and ammo are definitely a key concern. Interdiction of supply vessels by Taiwan and any allies (US) would be hard to defend against and would pull combat power back from the Island out of necessity. They want to ovoid a Russian like logistical nightmare that could turn the operation into an embarrassing quagmire. Remember - China has never launched an operation of this type and size before - so they have not prior experience to draw upon.
North/South Korea –
RUMIT that NK has promised 300K - 500K soldiers to the Ukraine conflict. Not that such an ‘offer’ has been made in the past but not taken up by putin. This may not be the bargain Russia could consider it to be as Russia doesn’t have the capacity to support such a force and secondly operational control would be a challenge - from an ideologically driven NK structure vs old Russian generals bucking for higher ranks in the Kremlin. This doesn’t even get into the communications / language issues.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic in Russia, is currently in a coma after his health rapidly deteriorated, according to Ukrainian Intelligence GUR.
NOTE - Rumors that he has a serious illness have been circulating for most of a year.
RUMINT-
The Kremlin is reportedly trying to censor Russian media coverage of a possible second reserve mobilization wave in order to prevent discontent ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential elections.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another day, another Russian combat vessel hit in the Black Sea by Ukraine drones. Ukraine reports that naval drones hit and damaged the Russian Bora-class missile-carrying hovercraft, Samum (Hull 616) in the offshore approaches to Sevastopol harbor. Samum was last reported to be down by the stern and under tow. Photos circulating the interwebs confirm the tow and much lowered stern.
The steady, methodic Ukrainian assaults on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts are creating cracks - see below.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces continue to gain tactical victories around Verbove and Novoprokopivka, placing remaining Russian forces in greater peril. Russia lost a senior battalion commander from the 76th GAAD in the fighting.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian sources are now conceding that Klishchiivka has been liberated by the AFU.
Military Informant - “During heavy fighting in recent weeks on the southern flank from Bakhmut , the enemy was able to drive our units out of the villages of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka.”
Ukraine sources state that Klishchiivka is not fully under Ukraine control yet, but that clean up operations are underway. Klishchiivka is on a strategic high ground that dominates Bakhmut and the regions to the east.
OUTLOOK –
The hammering Russia has taken this week from a combination of Ukraine drones (sea and air), cruise missiles and modified Neptune missiles reportedly has Russian intelligence scrambling to find the bases from which these attacks have been launched. So far Ukraine has stayed one step ahead of Russian intelligence, pulling a quicker OODA loop that Russian planners haven’t been able to keep up with. This could be one reason Russia has pretty much limited its drone/ missile attacks to the Iranian Shabad drones and modified S200’s - saving their more advanced missiles to target what they think are key facilities used for these attacks.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to surgically strike not only Russian air defense assets in Crimea, but critical logistical nodes. With the successful destruction of air defense, these strikes on logistics and command centers are growing. This is preventing critical supplies from going north to support Russian defense against the Ukraine offensive.
Evidence suggests that Russia is holding on by their fingernails both in the south as well as in the east. Lateral shifting of forces from the Bakhmut area is now resulting in increasing Ukraine gains, while the Ukraine defensive “rope a dope” scheme of seizing land, digging in and defeating piecemeal Russian counter attacks is paying off in the south. This is evidenced by the increasing numbers of senior Russian officers associated with the 76th GAAD being killed in battle. The Russians have been holding only because of the massive numbers of mines spread all over.
As noted, the tactical situation on the ground can change rapidly and there are signs that such may happen soon, especially as Ukraine digs deeper behind the second defensive line on the Tokmok axis and Russian forces begin to crumble in the Bakhmut region.
Poland –
Poland announced it will ban cars with Russian number plates from entering the country starting tomorrow. This joins the Baltic nations and Finland in doing the same.
Europe / NATO General –
The Romanian army has reportedly transferred 2 battalions with a strength of 600 soldiers to the border zone with Ukraine (Danube delta), which are equipped with air defense equipment and mobile radars for the detection of complex aerial objects such as the Russian operational-tactical kamikaze drones.
These forces were tasked with acting on these aircraft in the event of a threat to the Romanian Air Force.
Deputy Chief of the Romanian Defense Staff, General Gheorghiţă Vlad. - “Romania will shoot down Russian drones”
OBSERVATION - Russia’s sloppiness in its drone attacks has now poked the wrong bear. We now watch to see if Russia will continue its attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube across from Romania and id Romania will carry out the threat. It is initially appearing that its declared air defense zone covers portions of Ukraine.
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Banning Russian cars follows EU’s advice to stop Russians taking sanctioned goods back to Russia.
OBSERVATION - Apparently these ‘private’ cars are purchasing materials / items that are on the sanction list necessary for war production - most likely electronics - and smuggling them back to Russia.
Syria -
The country’s southern province of al-Suwayda’, whose population primarily comes from the Druze minority, is currently witnessing protests on an unprecedented scale. This has lead some analysts to suggest that Syria is clearly on the verge of collapse in terms of the economy and humanitarian situation.
Syria is attempting for the moment a ‘hands off’ mode to try to prevent further inflammation of the situation via any attempt to put the protests down as they did a few years ago.
OBSERVATION - A few years ago, similar protests rocked the southern Syria region and were put down by aggressive Syrian military actions supported by Iranian backed militias. Syria doesn’t have that ability now. With Russia’s diversion of effort to Ukraine, Syria is stuck with sagging Russian support and is increasing turning to Iran for help. That help comes with a price of allowing Iran to set up facilities and bases for an eventual attack on Israel. Syria is struggling with increased loss of control in the north due to Turkish incursions and in the east by a resurgent ISiS, as Syrian and Iranian militias drop their attacks on ISIS and focus on driving US/allied forces out of the region.
The prolonged civil war has decimated the economy and there is little hope for any pull back from the death spiral.
Misc of Note –
The Northeast has dodged a potential strike by Hurricane Lee.
Current Alerts and Warnings:
Hurricane Watch: From Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border, parts of New Brunswick, and portions of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Warning: In effect for Bermuda, from Westport Massachusetts extending north to the U.S./Canada border, including Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.