Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

UN climate summit this week, all the envirowackos are coming out of their holes. . . .

***
It is being noted that as of June 2023, 109 countries were actively exploring or engaging in CBDCs across various phases. Among these countries, 45 were involved in research, 32 were engaged in development, and 21 were in the pilot stage. Additionally, 16 countries were inactive, with 11 having already launched their CBDC projects, while two had canceled their involvement.

OBSERVATION - The biggest obstacle at least here in the US will be the resistance to eliminate physical cash all together. Digital exchange for all transactions will require electronics to complete. How are you, for instance, going to buy that nicknack at a yard sale? Are the banks going to ‘buy’ back physical currency - and at what discount rate? 90 cents on the dollar?
Push for 100% compliance may come with increased propaganda along the lines of only criminals and terrorists use physical cash. Other incentives are the security of their transactions. They will have to fight the specter of eventual govt tracking and control of purchases to force social compliance with globalist goals on diversity and global warming. At this stage that is a high hurdle to get over, barring some kind of significant disaster or other event.

Economy –

U.S. oil prices shot above $90 a barrel for the first time in 10 months, a bad sign for the Federal Reserve. The surge in oil prices is expected to push gasoline prices up even higher and worsen already rising inflation rates across the economy.

OBSERVATION - Fed rate increases are theoretically designed to slow economic activity and growth. Typically this also reduces petroleum consumption. This time around petroleum consumption is normal, but supples are being restricted off shore by OPEC+ members - mainly Saudi Arabia and Russia. Further rate increase by the Fed will not affect inflation as it doesn’t address the supply deficit, but will make it worse by handicapping domestic production and capitol needed for drilling and processing. Of course higher fuel prices pan out to higher prices across the board.

***
The United Auto Workers chief warned Sunday that a historic strike at the top three car manufacturers will expand if the companies do not raise their wage offers in ongoing negotiations.

OBSERVATION - One counter offer I heard was for about a 20% increase in wages. Union reps reportedly slapped that down quickly. Biden is currently supporting the Unions in what may indicate is an effort to regain their support considering how his push for EVs will eventually devastate the unions and cause thousands of jobs.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

We lost an F35 - soon to be showing up on milk cartons across America.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Probability of a govt shut down is increasing every day.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Increasing rumbling from the left that support for biden’s 2024 run is fading, but that they are not too thrilled over trying to defend harris’ lack luster term as VP with a popularity rating below that of biden.

Illegal Immigration –

Illegal crossings are strongly increasing across the southern border. CBP is reduced to dropping captured illegals off in the middle of towns telling them they are on their own.

North/South Korea –

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un left Russia on Sunday after a rare six-day visit that appeared to solidify his country’s ties with President Vladimir Putin, fanning Western fears that Pyongyang could provide Moscow with weapons for its assault on Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - NK’s potential contribution to Russia’s Ukraine war effort would not be that significant as there are potential quality control and other production issues that would need to be worked out. The simple fact that Russia is looking to NK for help demonstrates the critical need of Russia to try to do something to reverse the current of the conflict.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

********

Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had several negative effects on the Russian economy. One of the less obvious ones is a labor shortage. As Russia mobilized more and more young men, it deprived many manufacturing or maintenance facilities of key staff. Military-age men who had manufacturing or equipment maintenance skills were forced into the military, even though their employers warned that this would disrupt production if items needed by the military. Such exemptions were granted during World War II, but now the government decided that additional soldiers were more important than production of weapons and military equipment. What the government did not take into account was that, since the war began, nearly a million military age Russians have left the country. This continued even after the government outlawed the migration of military age men from Russia. Corruption in the government and military made it possible for military age men to get out of Russia. The government was told by employers that unless the government took action on the problems, production of key military items would continue to decline.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20230918.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 24 Shahed drones and 17 of 17 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
Ukraine returned the favor with drone strikes in Russia and Crimea. There was an explosion at an oil depot due to a drone attack in Oryol region of Russia last night. Russian media also reported drones in several locations of Moscow region. Airports in the region were closed.

Bakhmut Axis -
Klishchivka , south of Bakhmut, is in Ukraine hands. Now action is heating up on the northern side of the town as Ukrainian forces have made additional gains east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km NW of Bakhmut) toward the E-40 highway.

Kherson Axis -
Russian milbloggers claimed on Sept. 14 & 15 that Ukrainian forces intensified their activity on unspecified Dnipro River delta islands near the Antonivsky Bridge to consolidate positions for a future attack on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.

Crimean front —
Major explosions near Sevastopol in Crimea over night. Looks like Ukrainian missiles struck a Russian air defense system.

OUTLOOK –
Activity is plateauing. Daily drone/missile exchanges continue to favor Ukraine. Ukraine continues a multidimensional surgical assault on Russian logistics and command centers both near the front as well as in Crimea and other occupied zones.

Word out from the aftermath of the Klishchivka area battles is that Russian forces, and in particular VDV elements have really taken it on the chin, with substantial losses of brigade level leaders and staff. This may well be reflected in the gains in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka, NW of Bakhmut. Defenses and leadership is significantly thinned out.

Fighting in along the Tokmok axis continues to be a predominantly infantry effort. Very little Ukrainian armor/tank are directly involved at this stage. Continued indicators that Ukraine is splitting the defensive line and may well soon commit armor in a break out mode.

Russia is trying to dig more defensive positions around Tokmok. The question is will they have the soldiers to effectively man those trenches. As noted before - Ukraine has continually shown that they will fix Russian forces in place while maneuvering around such strong points - cutting them off and eventually forcing a Russian retreat or destruction. Ukraine at this moment doesn’t need to physically occupy Tokmok, just position to interdict the supply routes that the city is a hub for. That will further cripple Russian defensive efforts - not food, fuel or ammo/arty.

As alway, things can change quickly.

Europe / NATO General –

An drone believed to be Russian carrying an 82-mm mortar mine was found on the rocks near the village of Tyulenovo, 70 km from the border with Romania and across the sea from Crimea. News reports claim it had ‘crashed’, though some photos suggest that it was washed onto the rocks.

Israel –

See Saudi Arabia below.

Iran –

Protests demoralizing the death of Mahsa Amini on 16 September 2022 continue in Iran. However, I do not think that they will have the traction to continue for any extended period.

Saudi Arabia –

Rumors that the normalization talks between SA and Israel may be breaking down due to efforts to incorporate a Palestinian state into the mix.

Africa general – WAR WATCH

Rumors of a coup attempt in the Congo have been refuted by the Congo-Brazzaville government.

Globalism / Great Reset –

There are a number of events listed below that are linked closely to the efforts of the UN/WEF and the global reset.

Economy –

UAW strike continues with very little hope for an end in sight. Both sides threaten to ‘escalate’ with Union to increase the number of plants to be picketed and the auto makers closing plants and putting union workers out of work. Currently the WH continues to support strikers even while on the other hand pushing EVs that will result in the loss of jobs.

Trump is reported to be considering skipping the second debate and instead going to have a confab with union strikers. Should be interesting.

***
The federal debt has recently surpassed a staggering $33 trillion, a historic milestone in itself. What’s even more worrisome is the rapid pace at which it’s been growing. Since June, it has been expanding at an annualized rate of 18.5%.

In 1980, it was 31% of GDP. By 2015, it had climbed to 101%. Today, it stands at a whopping 123%. Since the debt ceiling “crisis,” the U.S. has been adding an astonishing $1 trillion in debt every month. In just the past five years, the country has accumulated a total debt increase of $11.5 trillion.

OBSERVATION - Can cross reference to Globalism / Great Reset as well.
I’ve not focused extensively on the federal debt’s threat to the US, mostly on the peripheral issues. But this has crossed a threshold to become the Damocles sword that the WEF et al could use to bring down our economy to permit the initiation of the great reset. We are not alone with such staggering national debt. China is somewhere near 300% of its GDP for instance. With such staggering amounts of debt, the concept of a wiping it from the books, combined with a global rescue could become very enticing. Question now is the current trend to a recession here in the US going to be severe enough to break the thread holding this sword.

***
Ongoing high fed rates could damage businesses as they seek corporate debt refinancing.

Economists indicate that $504 billion in nonfinancial corporate debt matures this year, $710 billion will mature in 2024, and $862 billion will mature in 2025, according to S&P Global analysts. This debt was incurred at historically low rates, now is facing substantially higher rates and fees. This could be disastrous for many businesses currently being hit in the bottom line by inflation and current pre-recession slowdowns.

OBSERVATION - Consequences from the fed’s rate policy keep rolling in the longer they keep rates inflated.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Ongoing efforts to nullify Trumps presidential run by removal from the state ballots has come to kalifornia and may potentially have some degree of success as it goes thru the State AG and not the SecState. With an abundance of far leftist activists judges, AG Bonta could get a declaration of relief which is essentially a bench decision without trial. This would potentially permit removal prior to the Dec 8 deadline for the primary ballot.

OBSERVATION - this is a very dangerous path being taken by the left and will result in the explosion of law fare in the federal courts over the legality of such a measure. So far democrat attempts to excluded Trump using other so called ‘constitutional’ means have been striking out. This is a desperation move by the left and could cause incredible ripples across the nation - confirming the ‘fix’ being in for the election as well as potential violence between Trump supporters and leftists at protest/counterprotests.

***
Massive concentrations of illegal immigrants hitting the US continues to build pressure towards potential violence and large scale crime in affected areas. Very real scenario of new illegals linking up with others to form their own militias or crime cartels to take what they want from already overwhelmed communities. This is what is happening in much of Europe as we speak. Liberal sanctuary cities/ states cannot get enough financial ‘aid’ to them fast enough to keep them pacified. As winter bears down on many of these dark blue metropolitan areas, housing demands will quadruple for illegals currently there - let alone the additional tens of thousands enroute.

Terrorism -

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Marine Corps has issued a stand-down of ALL aircraft following the mysterious disappearance of the F-35. Under the order, all Marine Corps aircraft, inside and outside the US, have been grounded.

According to the Pentagon, the pause is to allow units to “discuss aviation safety and best practices,” and that the Marine leadership will use the standard “to ensure the service is maintaining operational standardization.”

Missing F-35 fighter jet crashed in a field in Williamsburg County, north of Charleston about 75 miles north of where the pilot was ejected

OBSERVATION - Safety stand down is common practice, but there are still many unknowns concerning the circumstances surrounding the crash. The most significant is what were the circumstances surrounding the ejection of the pilot and the decision to ‘autopilot’ the aircraft. Rumors are afoot that the software heavy reliant systems may have been hacked.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

POLITICAL FRONT –

Key factions of the House Republican Conference reached a tentative agreement Sunday to keep the government funded temporarily and avert a shutdown scheduled for the end of the month, pairing it with a conservative border security measure, multiple GOP sources with knowledge of the agreement said.

House Republicans released a bill after the far-right Freedom Caucus and the center-right Main Street Caucus reached a tentative agreement, the sources said. The deal, which would keep the government funded through Oct. 31 but includes cuts to domestic spending, is expected to pave the way to pass a defense spending bill this week that has been tied up in the standoff between Republican leadership and the far right.

OBSERVATION - this bill is not out of the woods yet. There is still strong opposition by some house republicans and it faces a questionable hearing in the Senate where democrats there seemed inclined to reject it in favor of a shut down who’s narrative they believe the democrats can use to shape public opinion in their favor over.

Also note - some govt agencies are pushing the issuing of holiday ‘bonuses’ early if a shut down occurs. This to tide employees over until the govt restarts. When i was in govt, I got caught in the shutdown during Trump. Lost nearly a month’s wages because my position was coded as ‘non essential’.

Biden / Harris Watch –

An from NBC news cites sources close to the Biden family who say the first son’s ongoing legal battles are taking a toll on the 80-year-old president. Biden has “lamented aloud that he might be dead before his son’s case would be resolved,” NBC News reported.

Biden’s anxiety about his son’s legal troubles has kept aides from bringing up the topic around him, NBC News reported:

OBSERVATION - More evidence that the powers that be are tightening the screws on biden to get him to step down from the 2024 campaign. The fact that NBC is bringing this forward is also evidence that the MSM is jumping ship.
Note- Aids keeping the topic silent around biden - similar to aids keeping Hitler in the dark as his armies collapsed around him.

Illegal Immigration –

One of the largest mass illegal crossings we have ever seen took place in Eagle Pass, TX this morning, w/ Border Patrol sources telling us over 2,200 people crossed there since midnight. It happened right next to the port of entry.

OBSERVATION - Huge surges in illegals have been observed in other places along the border as well. This is the best documented so far. BP facilities are totally overwhelmed and they are just dumping arrestees onto the streets.

China –

Reports that of the last couple days Taiwan detected 103 China PLA aircraft with many crossing the into its ADIZ, this being a record high !

OBSERVATION - I noted way back that there is a general trend to such exercises, to increase both in frequency and in number as a potential military action is set to occur. In the past, large deployments were conducted in response to senior US govt reps arriving to Taiwan. There appears to be no equivalent triggering event this time. With rumors of a Chinese army build up getting started, and the chaos that is building both economically and politically in the US that could impair a US military response, China may have decided to up its time table. Also on China’s end, they are experiencing severe economic issues that an invasion could distract the population from.

Also of note - The Chinese Communist Party’s recent purges of potentially compromised officials in its foreign service and defense establishment could indicate preparations for an all-out confrontation with the West over Taiwan.

North/South Korea –

Kim has agreed to supply Russia with Kim agreed to provide Russia with upwards of 10 million artillery rounds, rockets, and MLRS launchers. NK gets in return 40 Su-35 fighters and possibly advanced missile technology.

OBSERVATION - This deal benefits NK more than it does Russia. Russia’s failing logistics system losing capacity to keep up with the war demands and switching to potentially unreliable NK munitions isn’t expected to help much. Kim wanted and got advanced aircraft as well as missile tech - both high on his list to build up those arms of the military.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023

Kerch Bridge update –
Unconfirmed reports of an (attempted) Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge. Russian sources claim 4 x “Storm Shadow” missiles were shot down - three over Melitopol and one over Henichresk. Some videos suggest some cruise missiles did hit the bridge.

Logistics –
NK has agreed to provide Russia with upwards of 10 million artillery rounds, rockets, and MLRS launchers.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s and fair conditions for the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Ukrainian Military Intelligence says they’ve sunk the Russian Navy ship “Sergey Kotov” in the Black Sea. A project 22160 vessel. According to the representative of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Andrii Yusov. No further details available.
NOTE - Uncertain if this is a new attack, or the result of one of the other attacks last week. Video from the attack on the two Project 22160 vessels last week indicate that one ship had an apparent impact (via thermal lens) near the stern with a second towards the bow (explosion caught on video).

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Becoming pretty much standard fare with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 27 of 30 Shahed drones overnight. Seems Lviv region was the primary target zone.

Continued measured tactical success on the Bakhmut and Tokmok advances.

Tokmak Axis -.
Explosions were reported in Melitopol and Tokmak, likely Russian supply depots or command posts.

Increased success of Ukrainian forces in seizing key portions of the second defense belt south and southeast of Robotyne. In some reported instances, the Russian tank trench barrier in places has been seized by Ukranian forces - seeing up a potential armor breakout scenario.

Velyka Novosilka Axis-
It is reported that there was a direct hit on the administration of the head of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin. Donetsk.

Bakhmut Axis -
Consider this with a large dose of propaganda but is being reflected from a number of sources. The Armed Forces broke through the Russian defense line in the direction of Bakhmut — Commander of the Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

“ Some of the most prepared Russian units (72, 31, 83 brigades) were defeated and lost their fighting capacity. The RU commanders from the 31st & 72nd battalion turned into sunflowers yesterday outside Bakhmut yesterday.”

Elements of two of Russia’s four Airborne (VDV) divisions and three of Russia’s four VDV separate brigades are currently defending the Bakhmut area.

NOTE - Ukraine did a successful seizure of two of the towns south of Bakhmut last week and Russia did announce the loss of some senior units leaders. The Russian units listed have been documented in place for most of this year - trying to support Wagner’s efforts on Bakhmut proper. As such, the much criticized Ukraine stand at Bakhmut served to freeze VDV forces in place to face the meat grinder and deny Russia the ability to redeploy to its planned offensive zones. Now the Bakhmut axis is on the verge of a serious collapse and Russia has little left to stop it.

Kupiansk Front -
Minimal Russian activity, mostly consisting of attacks by small forces.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
One was killed by a drone overnight in the Lviv region. 3 warehouses caught fire as result of drone strikes.

OUTLOOK –
Much of the same as stated over previous weeks. Key areas to keep focused on are Bakhmut and the Tokmok fronts. Both locations show evidence that the Russian defense is crumbling due largely to significant attrition of Russian forces and the advantage Ukraine has in UAV and artillery.

Also watching Crimea as Ukraine continues to surgically pick apart Russia air defense and early warning systems, making it increasingly vulnerable to Ukraine missile and drone attacks. Pressure will be maintained against the Kersch bridge. Pressure will also be maintained against elements of the Black Sea fleet which notably has not been participating the past couple weeks in missile attacks. Fleet facilities in Crimea are increasingly vulnerable eventually will force redeployment of assets to the Russian families in the eastern Black Sea.

Iran –

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu will meet in Tehran today with representatives of the Iranian Armed Forces command, Tasnim agency claims.

OBSERVATION - Probably first on Iranian support to Russia for the Ukraine war as well as now potentially coordinating support to Armenia (see below).

Turkey –

Monitoring potential Turkish involvement in the Armenian/Azeri conflict.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Azerbaijan has launched a major military operation to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. Explosions can be heard in Khankendi/Stepanakert. Azerbaijan has closed its airspace to Armenia.

Azeri justifying the attack as an operation to “restore the constitutional structure of Azerbaijan, local anti-terrorist measures have been started in Karabakh”.

Russian Foreign Ministry claims that its peacekeeping contingent continues to fulfill its tasks amid the situation in Karabakh. Russia deployed about 2,000 “peacekeepers” there in 2020.

OBSERVATION - Its on again. Azeri is gambling that Russia’s woes in Ukraine will prevent effective support to Armenia and that now is the time to seize the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The wild cards being Iran (in general support of Armenia) and Turkey (in general support to Azerbaijan). Armenia is currently outgunned by the Azeri forces but has the capability to put up a stiff defense.

Misc of Note –

Be prepared for disaster during your holiday travels this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) warn in a new Public Service Announcement (PSA), advising travelers to pack an emergency kit filled with everything they need to survive on their own for “several days.”

On Wednesday, September 12, FEMA and TSA issued a joint press release titled:
“FEMA, TSA Share Public Service Announcement Encouraging Travelers to Make a Plan and be Disaster-Ready”

OBSERVATION - Don’t recall any similar warnings in the past. Is this just the TSA being ‘cautious’ or are they telegraphing the development of a potential scenario. The latter fits in to the conspiracy theorist mold, but as we’ve seen, such theories have about a three month shelf life. Worth noting as well as keeping head on swivel even more over the holidays.