Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Globalism / Great Reset –
This category is not totally empty. A review of many of the following posts will show the thread of activity as a more local level stretching back to the globalists at the WEF et al.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Political, globalist or CW2 related - can call it all. Bank of America recently ‘debunked’ Indigenous Advanced Ministries - a Memphis, Tennessee-based nonprofit engaged in charitable efforts for orphaned children in Uganda. The ministry was warned without explanation by Bank of America in a letter in April that the organization was “operating in a business type we have chosen not to service at Bank of America” and would be closed within 30 days. An additional letter was sent in May, stating that its “risk profile no longer aligns with the bank’s risk tolerance.”
OBSERVATION - Debanking has been around for a number of years, but recently activity has spiked. A few months ago, JPMorgan Chase was also accused of ‘debanking’ members of conservative and religious groups by 19 Republican states. With rising frequency, clients associated with conservative or religious beliefs report being expelled from financial institutions, including Sam Brownback, former U.S. Ambassador for Religious Freedom and current head of the nonprofit National Committee for Religious Freedom. This renewed debanking campaign also appears to parallel the recent surge in ‘woke’ corporations coming out of the closet.
As CBDC rises and will eventually be forced on Americans (as well as the rest of the world), censorship of unfavorable persons/organizations like those in the recent debanking surge will become almost common, every day events to shut down all opposition to the regime narrative.
Unilateral CBDC enforcement will likely cause substantial blowback and civil unrest.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Biden said Friday he plans to request additional funding from Congress for the development of a new COVID-19 vaccine, adding he may require everyone to take it whether they previously received a vaccine or not.
OBSERVATION - Its all about control, and has nothing to do with the disease. General national attitude that I’m sensing is that any mandates will receive strong push back and that overbearing govt response will only hurt biden/democrats at the polls. That will not impact their efforts to steal another election.
**
More evidence of fraud that should make lawyers salivate. According to Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine label in the FDA’s Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers, each Pfizer vaccine dose for children ages 5 through 11 contains 10 micrograms (mcg) of modRNA, while fully-approved Comirnaty authorized for use in individuals 12 years of age and older contains 30 mcg of modRNA.
Pfizer, on its website, confirms its COVID-19 vaccine contains modRNA: “ModRNA stands for nucleoside-modified messenger RNA and in the synthesis of the RNA used in this vaccine platform, some nucleosides, which are important biological molecules that constitute DNA and RNA, are replaced by modified nucleosides to help enhance immune evasion and protein production.” The company says modRNA instructs the cells to produce desired proteins.
Yet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website (pdf) that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are “made of mRNA,” or “messenger RNA.”
Injecting modRNA into the body may lead to adverse events like strokes, cardiovascular complications, pulmonary embolism, and the formation of blood clots—many of which were disclosed in Pfizer’s documents (pdf) but were not attributed to its product.
“It is my opinion that, at a minimum, the intentional use of mRNA—an acronym well-known to stand for messenger RNA along with the endless statements about the vaccines being based on naturally occurring messenger RNA constitute misbranding in violation of a number of laws,” Ohio-based attorney Thomas Renz told The Epoch Times in an email.
OBSERVATION - Pfizer’s and moderna’s immunity from lawsuits carries the caveat of not covering fraud. This is fraud in big letters and the parallel coverup by the CDC drags them into this deception as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the new school year upon us, the aggressive Transtifa syncopates in education are entrenching behind their second line of defense to continue to deny parents their God given, constitutional rights to know what nonsense is happening in the schools. Lawfare on both sides is fierce.
Successes in removing porn directed at children as well as removing curriculum and policies to groom and hyper sexualize young children
**
Evidence is coming out that the White House Counsels office met with a top aide to Special Counsel Jack Smith only weeks before he brought charges against former President Donald Trump for allegedly mishandling classified documents.
The revelation raises major concerns about coordinated efforts to between the Biden administration and Justice Department prosecutors.
OBSERVATION - Two tiered law raises its head once again as Smith’s prosecution (persecution) shows growing evidence of illegalities and guidance by the WH.
**
The judge has DENIED bail to Harrison Floyd, the former Director of Black Voices for Trump and one of the 19 people indicted in the Georgia case. The denial took place yesterday. He’s the only one in detention there.
OBSERVATION - Punishing a black for straying off the democrat plantation.
Illegal Immigration –
The DHS is being accused of deliberately not releasing the monthly totals of all illegal migrants who wind up getting released into the U.S. after they are encountered by U.S. authorities at the border, a former U.S. immigration judge says.
Andrew Arthur, who served for eight years as an immigration judge at the now-closed immigration court in York, Pennsylvania, told Just the News that DHS does track the total number of migrants released after an encounter with border agents, but making that data available to the public would paint the Biden Administration in a negative light.
“The only reason why ICE and OFO [Office of Field Operations] would refuse to disclose that information is to hide the fact that it is releasing more than 100,000 aliens per month into the United States, and to conceal the effects of those migrant releases on communities across the United States,” he said.
OBSERVATION - This fully fits the MO of the regime - obfuscate the actual extent of the immigration disaster.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian Investigative Committee confirmed death of Prigozhin and Utkin due to DNA analysis of bodies retrieved from the aircraft crash in Tver region
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Kh-101 cruise missiles overnight, focused on the Kyiv region.
Still a lot of fog of war concerning the ground combat, particularly in there south but there are some recent OSINT analysis that points to the Russians pulling an airborne/air assault division away from their Kupiansk effort and into the Tokmak fight.
Tokmak Axis -
Still one of the more active OSINT chats on going. Observers noting that Russia had to pull units from the Kupiansk effort to try to stem the Ukrainian offensive successes. Both sides report Ukraine pushing south and southeast of Robotdyn and getting closer to the reportedly less well defended second defense line.
OUTLOOK –
If the reports and speculation are correct, and the depth of the reporting indicates so, Russia has no functional reserve forces in the south - having to pull units from the far northeast efforts around Kupiansk. Such a move would be clearly noticed by Ukraine and prepared for.
This could also account for the failures of the Russian assaults in the Kupiansk region as well, as this would draw units away from the attack.
The question I would have is how much of the airborne/air assault division’s (some say the 76th Air Assault Division) armor, tanks and artillery got moved as well? That is a much larger process. My best guess is that the move composed mostly of men and possibly artillery. Artillery because Ukraine has attained parody with Russia and its counter battery efforts have eaten up Russian artillery units like crazy. Most recent observations suggest that the reinforcement by these elements has done little to stop the offensive passing south of Tokmak.
Ukraine at the moment seems to have found the right mix of force elements to push the initiative towards Tokmak, and the redeployed Russian forces (unknown manning levels) a stop gap measure.
One last observation besides the quickly changing nature of the current operation is that the overall assessment of the so called second line of defense is that far less effort was placed into it and that Russian bet the farm on heavy measures at the first line and the approaches to it. This could make Ukraine attacks to the south easier and quicker.
Poland –
Poland is purchasing weapons systems at a breakneck pace, on track to have the largest army in Europe.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Niger military units reportedly deployed to key border regions and elements of what ever Wagner has turned into to are joining in country.
Misc of Note –
The first tropical storm of the season has hit Texas and with the clearing of the Saharan dust, storm development is increasing very quickly in the Atlantic.
**
So far fire season has been relatively restrained. The big eye continues to be kalifornia due to the heavy precipitation received last winter supporting extensive growth of grasses and ladder fuels. As we enter fall and prior to the start of winter rains in Oct/Nov, things historically dry out and mega fires can occur.
Fires in the Pacific northwest have been hot and early, but mitigated by a general drought last winter, meaning less grass and shrubs to spread into forests. Still need to monitor closely if you live in urban/woodland interface areas.
Globalism / Great Reset –
This category is not totally empty. A review of many of the following posts will show the thread of activity as a more local level stretching back to the globalists at the WEF et al.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Political, globalist or CW2 related - can call it all. Bank of America recently ‘debunked’ Indigenous Advanced Ministries - a Memphis, Tennessee-based nonprofit engaged in charitable efforts for orphaned children in Uganda. The ministry was warned without explanation by Bank of America in a letter in April that the organization was “operating in a business type we have chosen not to service at Bank of America” and would be closed within 30 days. An additional letter was sent in May, stating that its “risk profile no longer aligns with the bank’s risk tolerance.”
OBSERVATION - Debanking has been around for a number of years, but recently activity has spiked. A few months ago, JPMorgan Chase was also accused of ‘debanking’ members of conservative and religious groups by 19 Republican states. With rising frequency, clients associated with conservative or religious beliefs report being expelled from financial institutions, including Sam Brownback, former U.S. Ambassador for Religious Freedom and current head of the nonprofit National Committee for Religious Freedom. This renewed debanking campaign also appears to parallel the recent surge in ‘woke’ corporations coming out of the closet.
As CBDC rises and will eventually be forced on Americans (as well as the rest of the world), censorship of unfavorable persons/organizations like those in the recent debanking surge will become almost common, every day events to shut down all opposition to the regime narrative.
Unilateral CBDC enforcement will likely cause substantial blowback and civil unrest.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Biden said Friday he plans to request additional funding from Congress for the development of a new COVID-19 vaccine, adding he may require everyone to take it whether they previously received a vaccine or not.
OBSERVATION - Its all about control, and has nothing to do with the disease. General national attitude that I’m sensing is that any mandates will receive strong push back and that overbearing govt response will only hurt biden/democrats at the polls. That will not impact their efforts to steal another election.
**
More evidence of fraud that should make lawyers salivate. According to Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine label in the FDA’s Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers, each Pfizer vaccine dose for children ages 5 through 11 contains 10 micrograms (mcg) of modRNA, while fully-approved Comirnaty authorized for use in individuals 12 years of age and older contains 30 mcg of modRNA.
Pfizer, on its website, confirms its COVID-19 vaccine contains modRNA: “ModRNA stands for nucleoside-modified messenger RNA and in the synthesis of the RNA used in this vaccine platform, some nucleosides, which are important biological molecules that constitute DNA and RNA, are replaced by modified nucleosides to help enhance immune evasion and protein production.” The company says modRNA instructs the cells to produce desired proteins.
Yet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website (pdf) that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are “made of mRNA,” or “messenger RNA.”
Injecting modRNA into the body may lead to adverse events like strokes, cardiovascular complications, pulmonary embolism, and the formation of blood clots—many of which were disclosed in Pfizer’s documents (pdf) but were not attributed to its product.
“It is my opinion that, at a minimum, the intentional use of mRNA—an acronym well-known to stand for messenger RNA along with the endless statements about the vaccines being based on naturally occurring messenger RNA constitute misbranding in violation of a number of laws,” Ohio-based attorney Thomas Renz told The Epoch Times in an email.
OBSERVATION - Pfizer’s and moderna’s immunity from lawsuits carries the caveat of not covering fraud. This is fraud in big letters and the parallel coverup by the CDC drags them into this deception as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the new school year upon us, the aggressive Transtifa syncopates in education are entrenching behind their second line of defense to continue to deny parents their God given, constitutional rights to know what nonsense is happening in the schools. Lawfare on both sides is fierce.
Successes in removing porn directed at children as well as removing curriculum and policies to groom and hyper sexualize young children
**
Evidence is coming out that the White House Counsels office met with a top aide to Special Counsel Jack Smith only weeks before he brought charges against former President Donald Trump for allegedly mishandling classified documents.
The revelation raises major concerns about coordinated efforts to between the Biden administration and Justice Department prosecutors.
OBSERVATION - Two tiered law raises its head once again as Smith’s prosecution (persecution) shows growing evidence of illegalities and guidance by the WH.
**
The judge has DENIED bail to Harrison Floyd, the former Director of Black Voices for Trump and one of the 19 people indicted in the Georgia case. The denial took place yesterday. He’s the only one in detention there.
OBSERVATION - Punishing a black for straying off the democrat plantation.
Illegal Immigration –
The DHS is being accused of deliberately not releasing the monthly totals of all illegal migrants who wind up getting released into the U.S. after they are encountered by U.S. authorities at the border, a former U.S. immigration judge says.
Andrew Arthur, who served for eight years as an immigration judge at the now-closed immigration court in York, Pennsylvania, told Just the News that DHS does track the total number of migrants released after an encounter with border agents, but making that data available to the public would paint the Biden Administration in a negative light.
“The only reason why ICE and OFO [Office of Field Operations] would refuse to disclose that information is to hide the fact that it is releasing more than 100,000 aliens per month into the United States, and to conceal the effects of those migrant releases on communities across the United States,” he said.
OBSERVATION - This fully fits the MO of the regime - obfuscate the actual extent of the immigration disaster.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian Investigative Committee confirmed death of Prigozhin and Utkin due to DNA analysis of bodies retrieved from the aircraft crash in Tver region
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Kh-101 cruise missiles overnight, focused on the Kyiv region.
Still a lot of fog of war concerning the ground combat, particularly in there south but there are some recent OSINT analysis that points to the Russians pulling an airborne/air assault division away from their Kupiansk effort and into the Tokmak fight.
Tokmak Axis -
Still one of the more active OSINT chats on going. Observers noting that Russia had to pull units from the Kupiansk effort to try to stem the Ukrainian offensive successes. Both sides report Ukraine pushing south and southeast of Robotdyn and getting closer to the reportedly less well defended second defense line.
OUTLOOK –
If the reports and speculation are correct, and the depth of the reporting indicates so, Russia has no functional reserve forces in the south - having to pull units from the far northeast efforts around Kupiansk. Such a move would be clearly noticed by Ukraine and prepared for.
This could also account for the failures of the Russian assaults in the Kupiansk region as well, as this would draw units away from the attack.
The question I would have is how much of the airborne/air assault division’s (some say the 76th Air Assault Division) armor, tanks and artillery got moved as well? That is a much larger process. My best guess is that the move composed mostly of men and possibly artillery. Artillery because Ukraine has attained parody with Russia and its counter battery efforts have eaten up Russian artillery units like crazy. Most recent observations suggest that the reinforcement by these elements has done little to stop the offensive passing south of Tokmak.
Ukraine at the moment seems to have found the right mix of force elements to push the initiative towards Tokmak, and the redeployed Russian forces (unknown manning levels) a stop gap measure.
One last observation besides the quickly changing nature of the current operation is that the overall assessment of the so called second line of defense is that far less effort was placed into it and that Russian bet the farm on heavy measures at the first line and the approaches to it. This could make Ukraine attacks to the south easier and quicker.
Poland –
Poland is purchasing weapons systems at a breakneck pace, on track to have the largest army in Europe.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Niger military units reportedly deployed to key border regions and elements of what ever Wagner has turned into to are joining in country.
Misc of Note –
The first tropical storm of the season has hit Texas and with the clearing of the Saharan dust, storm development is increasing very quickly in the Atlantic.
**
So far fire season has been relatively restrained. The big eye continues to be kalifornia due to the heavy precipitation received last winter supporting extensive growth of grasses and ladder fuels. As we enter fall and prior to the start of winter rains in Oct/Nov, things historically dry out and mega fires can occur.
Fires in the Pacific northwest have been hot and early, but mitigated by a general drought last winter, meaning less grass and shrubs to spread into forests. Still need to monitor closely if you live in urban/woodland interface areas.
DC's corrupt totalitarian 'elties' and their butt boys in the press want to make it illegal to question our 'institutions'...so we need to speak the truth while we still can: The DOJ is corrupt... they're traitors to all our country stands for - and they don't deserve the respect of the American people.
Economy –
The UAW contract with General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis is set to expire on 14 September, and the union members have voted to authorize a strike.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry is already shaken due to post wuhan conditions, sky high loan interest rates and their questionable all in to convert most of their fleet to EVs that no one wants to buy.
**
Fannie Mae economists projected in a revised forecast that stagnation in the housing market could last into 2024, whether the economy avoids a recession or not.
“Regardless of whether a soft landing is achieved over the coming year, we expect existing home sales to stay subdued and within a tight range,” they wrote.
Existing home sales have already tumbled 2.2% in July from the previous month to an annual rate of 4.07 million units, according to new data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. On an annual basis, sales of previously owned homes are down 16.6% when compared with the same time last year.
OBSERVATION - As noted many times before, the housing market normally leads the economy out of economic recessions. This forecast suggests that because of the state of the economy - and the linkage to the expected to be historically high mortgage interest rates, the economy may be forced to find another sector to lead out of a recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Forward Observer is noting discussions from the Antifa et al on a change in tactics. They report that the latest edition of an anarchist online magazine calls for “gray bloc” tactics, which are more subtle than militant “black bloc” but still allow for disruptive action. As opposed to black bloc, where militants are dressed in all black, gray bloc tactics allow militants to blend into local crowds, conceal their identity, and still carry out direct action.
OBSERVATION - I’ve seen a lot more ‘grey’ in leftists counterprotests lately, and far fewer in ‘black’. Black bloc is intimidating when in large numbers, but they just haven’t been able to get the numbers out. And when everyone is in black the selected violent elements can blend in to the black clad crowds. The ‘grey’ method does have a drawback in that participants are still wearing masks — which identifies them as leftists at these events.
**
Stores lost an estimated $86.6 billion to retail theft in 2022, and projections indicate that in 2025, the amount may reach $115 billion, according to Capitol One Shopping Research.
Organized retail crime, which increased on average by 26.5% in 2021, is the driving force, the study says.
Retailers, on average, saw a 26.5% increase in organized retail crime (ORC).
“Eight in 10 retailers surveyed report that the violence and aggression associated with ORC incidents increased in the past year,” the 2022 Retail Security Survey says.
OBSERVATION - This could be why Antifa et al is finding it hard to mass protest, as the crowds they rely upon no longer need to wait for a riot to loot, but are doing it on a daily basis.
Once again, I’m looking farther out to what will happen once the stores in these Soros DA’d, BLM/Antifa hell holes are totally boarded up and closed. How far past the adjacent suburbs will this type of crime continue? How high of a potential for vigilante / self defense actions against organized looting is there?
POLITICAL FRONT –
A still partially vacationing biden is beginning to make plans for a govt shut down the end of Sept as congress is constipated in getting the funding for FY24 out the door. Biden will likely use authorities under the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 to exempt military personnel funding from any automatic cuts if Congress does not meet the debt-ceiling deal deadline to pass 12 spending bills.
Schumer and other senate leaders indicate that a CR will be used to kick the final funding plan down the road to avoid any shutdown.
**
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy continues to play hot potato with the demands for impeachment proceedings against biden as well as some of his henchmen. He is saying it may be on the agenda after they return from August break.
OBSERVATION - McCarthy has turned into the spineless idiot most believed he was and I don’t expect the house to go forward with this at all before the election.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 4 Kaliber missiles and 2 Kh-59 missiles overnight
The major ground action continues to be on the Tokmak axis with Robotyne liberated and Ukranian forces advancing towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvate to the south and southeast respectively. OPSEC and fog of war obscure much of the details of the action, but overall Ukraine is making significant tactical gains.
The Primus, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier, left Odesa on Saturday, heading towards Istanbul en route to Senegal. This is the second container ship to leave Ukraine through the temporary Black Sea corridor established by Ukraine’s government after Russia withdrew from the BSGI
Tokmak Axis -.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops are getting closer to liberating Verbove after having broken through Russian defensive lines in front of the settlement. Russian mil-bloggers are reporting that the AFU has broken through to Verbove. No confirmation from the AFU General Staff
This is the southeastern prong from the Robotyne breakthrough
Kupiansk Front -
RUMINT. More than 100,000 Russian soldiers are reported to be concentrated in the Lymansky and Kupyansk region, and the Russian artillery attacks there have increased
NOTE - Similar build up was noted a month ago. At that time the force size was 250k a month ago.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile strike targeted an oil manufacturing plant in Hoholeve village of Myrhorod district of Poltava region
OUTLOOK –
Russia continues to find itself in a hard place along the Tokmak axis. Ukraine is successfully exploiting weaker Russian defenses and avoiding strong points, creating conditions where Russians are being cut off and endanger of being encircled - causing them to break out and retreat. Indicators are that many times the retreats are chaotic and end up in Russia troops being cluster munitions bait.
OSINT indicates that Ukraine is pressing the attack using two mechanized brigade size forces - the largest combined attack force allegedly so far. When Ukraine is able to capture the high ground south of Robotyne, things will get very nasty for Russian forces to the south.
As always, things can change very quickly.
Poland –
Poland is investigating a suspected Russian cyberattack on its national railway network. The attack destabilized traffic in northwestern Poland and builds on the fears of hybrid threats emanating from Russia and Belarus
OBSERVATION - This could be and Article 5 violation if shown to be launched by Russia or sponsored entity.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite said that the country’s MIA will soon officially send a proposal to the government to close two more checkpoints on the border with Belarus.
If Pryvalka-Raigardas and Katlouka-Lavoriskes are closed, there will be only two border crossings on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border:
• Kamenny Loh - Medininkai;
• Beniakoni - Salcininkai.
In addition, Poland’s Minister of Interior and Administration Mariusz Kaminski said that in case of a critical incident, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia would close the border with Belarus at once. Bilotayte confirms that the countries have agreed on a common response in case of critical incidents.
According to her, there are 2 general criteria for such a decision:
• Armed incident or incidents near the border of one of the countries.
“It must be one that poses a serious threat to the countries’ national security.”
Organized mass migrant breakthrough.
OBSERVATION - Prior to the Ukraine war, the Belarus govt was supporting the illegals migration into the Baltic regions and Poland. This in itself nearly started a war. Now there is evidence that Belarus may be trying to up the ante again to disrupt via illegals migrants. This could quickly create a substantial war with NATO.
Saudi Arabia –
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is considering alternative bids from China, Russia, and France to develop domestic nuclear facilities, including those used to enrich uranium.
OBSERVATION - Key indicator that the US is losing influence over the region.
>>How far past the adjacent suburbs will this type of crime continue? How high of a potential for vigilante / self defense actions against organized looting is there?
There was an interesting incident in Vermont in the last year, on that.
https://vtdigger.org/2022/12/09/in-rutland-a-sense-of-increased-crime-is-met-with-vigilantism/
In 2020, the inner ring suburb I lived in shut down attempted looting in a major commercial/retail area the night of the Rayshard Brooks riots in Atlanta proper. Several Atlanta proper retail areas got hit pretty hard.
A significant percentage of the adult population of GA has a weapons carry license. FWIW. I don’t think the crime will come out to the ‘burbs. There are a LOT of pistols and ARs.
Indeed. Greater sense of community and not putting up with foolishness.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The green facists in Britain have come up with new insanity. Their recent push to replace fossil fuel base home heating with heat pumps has hit the reality of science. Reality is that when it is cold - like during the typical winter in most areas of Britain - the heat pump is essentially useless. Now advocates are recommending that the population simply shut them off in the winter. They say this will help Britain attain its Net Zero goals even sooner.
OBSERVATION - Even when I was trapped in the Peoples’ republik of kalifornia, temperatures in the 30s made heat pumps worthless and expensive. This just demonstrates once again the callousness of the global powers that be towards the sheeple. Coming soon to your neighborhoods.
**
Yum! Brands, the parent company of many well-known fast-food chains like Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and KFC, is planning to eventually move to 100 percent digital sales at its restaurants.
This is according to Yum! Brands Chief Financial Officer Chris Turner, who noted during an earnings call the corporation’s goal to gradually shift to full cashless transactions at its restaurants.
OBSERVATION - This shift is one of the parallel efforts of WEF compliant corporations to start conditioning the sheeple to stop using cash. Admittedly, most of us (including my self) will use our debit cards to make purchases at these fast food places. however, there are many who only use cash - and they risk losing those customers. It is only a few steps to shifting to a CBDC and the WEF desired programed digital currency from here.
Economy –
According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the US economy is on track to experience a period of low growth coupled with persistent inflation. This economic situation, known as stagflation. Saxo Bank recently revised its US economic outlook for 2024, referring to it as “stagflation light.” This term describes a situation of sluggish growth combined with ongoing inflation. Hansen attributes the downgrade of US credit by Fitch in part to the substantial rise in real interest rates, which has made funding costs for the country extremely high.
OBSERVATION - Its been a while since the ‘stagflation’ descriptor for the economy has reared its head. This situation could potentially be worse than a recession in that it carries the worst of both worlds.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Biden - “The U.S. intelligence community has determined that domestic terrorism rooted in white supremacy is the greatest terrorist threat we face in the homeland.”
OBSERVATION - The same intelligence community that determined the Hunter Biden laptop story was ‘Russian disinformation’ has determined that ‘white supremacy’ is the greatest terrorist threat Americans face. NOTE - This theme has been almost continuous since the reign of 0bama and carried forward under the radar during Trump only to come flapping out in the open again under biden. It can no longer be denied that major parts of our govt have become enemies of the people.
**
Nordstrom permanently closed its San Francisco location after 35 years on Sunday because of increased crime, ABC7 News reported.
A Nordstrom employee at the San Francisco location partially attributed the closure to the rampant crime in the area, according to ABC7 News. Property crime, which includes shoplifting, rose by 57% in downtown San Francisco between 2019 and 2022, according to USA Today.
More than 39 stores, including Whole Foods and Office Depot, have closed since 2020 in San Francisco’s Union Square area, according to CNN.
OBSERVATION - Monitoring the organized looting of major stores outward from urban centers to suburbs and potentially to surrounding smaller cities and rural areas. Here in the Redoubt, pickings get pretty slim for organized looters as there are few big ticket stores, centered mainly in larger towns, but the demographics of the metropolitan criminal elements / races are no where near the numbers per capita.
**
There are rumbling by some democrats and never-trumpers, to have him removed off state ballots because of ‘insurrection ‘ charges (14th Amendment).
OBSERVATION - Any push to disqualify Trump from a state ballot in 2024 will add fuel to the pro-trump fires and could lead to violence if state Secretaries of State move forward with any plans. Currently, no states have announced plans to disqualify Trump from their ballots. This will be one of the major ‘red line’ issues next fall.
**
Climate protestors got more than what they were counting on after temporarily closing a highway in Nevada leading to the infamous “Burning Man” pagan celebration. Unfortunately for them they set up on reservation lands the the tribal law enforcement was in no mood to submit to their games. The video of the event is all over, find it and get a grin that will last the whole day.
POLITICAL FRONT –
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan set Donald Trump’s trial date on four counts of election-related misconduct for March 4, 2024 — the day before the Super Tuesday slate of Republican election primaries. “The public has a right to a prompt and efficient resolution of this matter,” Judge Chutkan said according to the New York Times story on the hearing yesterday.
OBSERVATION - Elementary law shows that it is the right of the defendant to a prompt and efficient trial. The “public right” is nonexistent in these matters.
China –
China’s Evergrande Group tumbled 79 percent in Hong Kong trading on Aug. 28 as shares of the real estate developer resumed trading for the first time since its unexplained suspension in March 2022. This came just a week after Evergrande filed for bankruptcy in New York on Aug. 17.
The filing under Chapter 15 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code shields non-U.S. companies under restructuring from creditors coming after their U.S.-based assets.
The company had about 2.39 trillion yuan ($328 billion) in liabilities in the January-to-June period, lower than the 2.44 trillion yuan ($334 billion) recorded last year. Its total assets also decreased from 1.8 trillion yuan ($247 billion) last year to 1.74 trillion yuan ($239 billion) this year.
OBSERVATION - Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg of China’s property bubble, as there are many other smaller companies going through the same woes. This, along with the other economic turmoil China is facing is placing Xi into a bind and his govt into damage control mode, even though his position as leader is not in jeopardy.
North/South Korea –
NK’s Kim is warning of a US led invasion of the country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian Security Council states that “Deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a response to Western aggression.”
RUMINT-
British intelligence believes that Russia has cancelled the Zapad-2023 drills due to lack of forces and equipment
**
“The Kremlin ordered the special services to prepare for a new coup attempt”, - The Moscow Times
Logistics –
A German company allegedly provided electronics for Russia’s Orlan10 drones - also after the war started - and thus indirectly helping Russian to precision fire on Ukrainian forces. The company‘s boss was detained by German authorities
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Major action continues to be focused on the Tokmok axis. Ukranian efforts on the other fronts seem to have been placed into a tactical pause mode to shift assets to Tokmok. Ukraine continues it’s deep strikes against key Russian sites in the occupied territories. Russia OTOH, seems to be rudderless in generating a cohesive and tactically efficient missile and drone plan against Ukraine.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have success towards Verbove of Zaporizhzhia region. The nature of this ‘success’ is undefined by the UDF.
Partisan Resistance ——
An explosion occurred in the improvised “barracks” of the Kadyrovites (Pro Russian Chechen forces) in the temporarily occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Region.
The operation was carried out by the local resistance movement under the coordination of Ukrainian Intelligence. The explosion injured occupation personnel and damaged vehicles parked in the yard, Ukrainian Defence Intelligence reported.
OUTLOOK –
I’m not sure if I’ve described the importance of Tokmok in the current battle. Tokmok is a critical transportation hub for both rail and roads. As such, Russian logistics pass thru the city in order to support the war efforts against the southern Ukraine offensive actions. As Ukraine pushes south and begins to secure the high ground south of Robotyne, it brings the town into visual and more importantly, artillery range. Disruption of the logistics and manpower movements will critically harm Russian war efforts and catalyze Ukrainian combat effectiveness. Thus at this early state, capture of the city is not as important as it is to shut down rail and vehicle traffic - a factor quickly becoming a reality for Ukrainian forces.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Idalia could be the strongest storm to hit the Florida Big Bend region for a century, with projections it could become a Category 3 storm with 150mph winds and a 12 foot storm surge. Complicating matters is that this coincides with a “super moon”, marking the moon’s cyclical closest approach to the earth, increasing the size of high tides, thus amplifying the storm surge. Georgia and the Carolinas are also due to get hit with tropical force rain and winds as Idalia crosses the panhandle.
OBSERVATION - Has all the makings of a very active hurricane season.
P
Tomorrow will be my last post until after Labor day. Will be in the internet free zones in the forest lands of the Redoubt.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A group of vigilantes calling themselves “Blade Runners” are taking down ULEZ cameras in London. The cameras were installed to implement low emissions zones and levy steep taxes on gas-powered vehicles. The expanded ULEZ rules were to start overnight, but protests as well as mayors of the surrounding affected communities are refusing to participate. Approximated 90+% of these cameras have been taken down/destroyed to date.
OBSERVATION - This is a derivative of the WEF’s “15 minute “ city concept. The Mayor of London has taken a hard, totalitarian position against Londoners, and my soon be voted out.
**
Index fund giant Vanguard on Monday said it has narrowed support for shareholder resolutions on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues, backing only 2 percent of such proposals at company meetings across the United States during the 2023 proxy season.
Vanguard follows similar actions by BlackRock.
OBSERVATION - Push back by agencies and individuals to the ESG mandated issues have only one a victory in an already losing war. Bolstered by the global elite, those ESG efforts will regroup and advance forward again as global economic chaos reforms.
Economy –
The average price for a gallon of gas rose to $3.82 nationally Tuesday, 60 cents higher than at the start of 2023—and the highest amount so far this year, The Wall Street Journal reports.
A big reason why oil and gas prices stayed under $3.60 earlier this year was China’s weak economic recovery. OPEC+ set their production and price targets earlier this year based on Chinese economic recovery. As this recovery failed to materialize, Russia and Saudi Arabia, by limiting production, managed to bring oil back up to $80 a barrel. These higher energy prices are likely to complicate the Federal Reserve’s fight to bring inflation back down to its 2% norm.
OBSERVATION - Remember, higher oil prices at the pumps also translates through the economy as higher prices for other goods.
**
Bad jobs news coming. Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, according to ADP, a sign that the surprisingly resilient U.S. economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates.
The firm reported Wednesday that private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, well below the revised total of 371,000 added in July. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting 200,000 jobs added in August.
ADP also reported that pay growth slowed for workers who changed jobs and those who stayed in their current positions. With consensus expecting only a modest drop in the July job openings from 9.582 million to 9.5 million, what the BLS reported is not good news.
In July there were just 8.827 million job openings, the first sub-9 million print since March 2021. It was also the 3rd biggest miss on record! Worse, had the BLS not drastically slashed the May number from 9.582MM to 9.165MM, the drop would have been almost 800K job openings. And yes, today’s downward revision.
OBSERVATION - The anticipated crunch is beginning to form and it isn’t looking good. Some pointing to this to indicate that there will be no “soft landing’ but a harder crash into recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
See Terrorism below. The massive flood of primarily single, military aged men illegally entering the country (and being turned loose on the population), raised the specter of a potentially nasty scenario where these illegals join leftists in a violent action against the conservative red regions as well as stupid blue metro areas. A handful of terrorists created chaos on 9/11, imagine what thousands could do.
Terrorism -
The FBI is reportedly investigating a human smuggling network that is helping move Uzbek migrants across the border into the United States. At least one of the smugglers is reportedly connected to the ISIS terrorist organization.
Border Patrol agents apprehended more than a dozen Uzbek nationals earlier this year who crossed the border from Mexico into the U.S. The migrants were reportedly released into the U.S. by the Biden administration to pursue asylum claims, according to a report by CNN on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - Already a torrent of identified terrorists have been intercepted at the border - with countless others making it into the country.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The study titled “BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in children alters cytokine responses to heterologous pathogens and Toll-like receptor agonists”, set out to measure the quality of general immune responses in children vaccinated with the Pfizer COVID vaccine. It confirms that vaccination against COVID-19 causes a marked decrease in immunity to heterologous pathogens such as viruses, bacteria, and fungi. This decreased immunity to other pathogens (acquired immune deficit) is what people colloquially refer to as “VAIDS.” (VAIDS stands for Vaccine-Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome)
OBSERVATION - More death from the wuhan cultists. But then this linkage has been out there for over a year, but this is the first firm documentation of the link.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SMH - what a complete cluster.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden may have used pseudonyms in nearly 5,400 emails, electronic records and documents when he was vice president, a bombshell letter from the National Archives and Records Administration reveals.
The trove of communications was confirmed after the Southeastern Legal Foundation (SLF) filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for emails connected to aliases allegedly used by Biden, including Robin Ware, Robert L. Peters, and JRB Ware.
Republicans have been demanding the release of the emails they say could show Biden used the names to discuss foreign business with his son and share information on countries where he was doing deals.
OBSERVATION - You don’t use pseudonyms at this level of govt unless you are up to something illegal.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration, has sent $104 million to the New York City government to care for newly arrived migrants – more than the money sent to Arizona and Texas combined.
**
A Texas National Guard soldier shot and wounded a suspected cartel operative in Mexico while witnessing a violent assault on a group of migrants preparing to cross the border into the United States, according to sources within the Texas government. The Guardsman reportedly observed the man armed with a pistol and a machete beating a migrant on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande near El Paso.
Multiple sources with knowledge of the incident but not authorized to speak to media on the matter told Breitbart Texas that the National Guard soldier fired his weapon to stop a violent attack on a group of migrants on the Mexican side of the border. The soldier struck the alleged assailant in the leg, according to health officials in Juarez, Mexico.
“The Guardsman observed a group of cartel agitators approaching a group of migrants on the southern bank of the Rio Grande,” one source indicated. “One of the cartel members had a pistol at his waist and was wielding a machete.”
“The man with the machete began to strike one of the migrants with the weapon,” the source said. “The Guardsman believed the migrants were in imminent danger of being killed or severely injured by the attacker and discharged his weapon.”
OBSERVATION - The soldier’s motivations were good, but cross border fire is currently a no - no, though it is well documented that cartels have on numerous occasions fired at border patrol agents. One concern is that the cartels will use this as an excuse to escalate tensions by being even more proactive in shooting border patrol and Nati’l Guard deployed on the border.
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s navy will soon be equipped with nuclear weapons in order to support the country’s “deterrence” strategy, dictator Kim Jong Un announced.
OBSERVATION - Kim has already been working to develop a submarine launched missile program who’s missiles are designed to carry a nuclear warhead. This announcement indicates similar missiles will be designed/modified to be carried by surface combatants.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The last 24 has seen the ‘battle of the drones’ take over, and initial review shows Ukraine coming out on top. Ukraine launched its most significant drone attack on Russian targets since the start of the war.
The biggest hit was the Pskov airbase, home to one of Russia’s major airlift commands. Multiple large fires with possible secondary explosions were reported. It is located north of Ukraine almost 700 km and about more than 20 miles east of the Estonian frontier. This has caused Russian officials to claim the attack was launched from Estonia.. At least four Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft were damaged at Pskov airport according to Russian emergency services - TASS
Explosions were reported in Bryansk (Russia). Prior to the explosions, locals report the sound of drones. Russian Sources are reported that Ukrainian drones were attempting to Strike the Druzhba Oil Depot in the Bryansk Region. One of the largest microelectronics companies in Russia was hit in Bryansk - the “Kremniy EL” plant.
Explosions and fire reported in Tula now. Tula is the site of a major ammo plant.
Ukraine drones hit Russian officials said, citing Pskov, Bryansk, Kaluga, Orlov, Ryazan and Moscow regions as targeted, as well as Russian-occupied Crimea.
Russia launched yet another massive missile attack on Ukraine last night (whether or not in retaliation for Ukraine’s attacks is unknown ). Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles and 15 of 16 Shahed drones overnight. 3 persons were injured and 6 houses were damaged in Kyiv region by debris from intercepted missiles and drones.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian defence Forces have success at Novodanylivka-Novoprokopivka and Mala Tokmachka-Verbove directions, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report. These are the two developing prongs following the fall of Robotdyn, one south towards Tokmak and the other southeast towards Polohy.
Still RUMINT - Russian occupation “authorities” reportedly began leaving the city of Tokmak in the Ukraine’s south, according to locals
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukrainian forces continued to capture key tactical terrain south of Bakhmut, tightening the noose around the city by bringing more logistical routes into direct fire.
Russian Territory –
Fires near the Moscow railway station and warehouses in Moscow are reported to be on fire. In fact there have been a number of major fires across Russia. These fires are not the result of any Ukrainian drone attacks, and there are no reports of them being caused by suspected unconventional attacks. However, the numbers and timing are suspicious.
OUTLOOK –
Should the world survive, the drone wars of the Ukraine conflict will be a top study. Beginning with the key role that the Turkish Bakytar drones played in helping to stall the initial Russian invasion attempts, to Russia’s move to the Shahed drones and now the rapidly growing Ukrainian drone effort combined with the innovations using drones on a tactical level. Last night Ukraine stepped up the level - striking numerous key Russian targets while at the same time neutralizing most of Russia’s cruise missile / drone counterstrikes. Russia is in a pickle - initially Ukraine had no means to reach deep targets, so many of the Russian facilities were relatively sitting fat and sassy. Now routinely Ukraine is hitting key military and civilian facilities and Russia seems relatively helpless to stop the attacks. Russia has a big land mass compared to Ukraine, so Ukraine has the advantage in concentrating its air defenses around key facilities and cities. Russia OTOH, doesn’t have enough AD assets to protect all the potential targets of Ukraine drones. Now the war is affecting Russian citizens on a real time daily basis - and Russian spinmeisters are struggling to affect the news to keep calm.
These deep Ukraine strikes will eventually show benefits on the battlefield as it messes up the Russian war supply system. It forces Russian military planners to divert more assets to defend Russian assets, versus on the battle field, an action that enhances Ukraines tactical efforts at controlling the air. BTW Russia still hasn’t established air superiority - even without Ukrainian F-16s. Ukraine prioritizes Russian AD assets to permit its drones to operate unopposed - and with devastating effects.
Wars drive innovation and so far Ukraine has far surpassed Russian in this realm and judging from the trend, things are not going to get easier for Russia to defend against them.
One quick word about the Pskov Airfield strike. Russia playing the story that the strike originated in Estonia and should Russia seek retribution things will get ugly fast. Many other analysts indicate that the drone launches (and the type of drones haven’ t been made public) could be smaller, shorter ranged quad copter style used by commandos and anti-putinists, similar to the drones that hit the Kremlin months ago. This latter case will force more Russian resources to try to identify and interdict these elements. Finally, this airlift wing has also been associated with bringing the Iranian Shahed drones and other military supplies in from Iran.
Lebanon -
Lebanese Hezbollah leader Nasrallah blamed the United States for the ongoing protests in Syria and called on demonstrators to show leniency toward the Assad regime. Nasrallah is the first Axis of Resistance leader to publicly acknowledge the protests.
OBSERVATION - Assad is having difficulties maintaining order and support and this will not get any easier with the interjection of hardline Iran and Hezbollah elements.
Syria -
See Lebanon above.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Another African coup is unfolding with a group of Gabonese soldiers announcing a military coup on TV. Expect more instability in the region with increasing security risks.- Developing.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Florida’s west coast as a dangerous Category 3 storm on Wednesday, following concerns that it could have attained Category 4 levels. Storm surges to 12 feet being observed along the coast.
I may or may not be able to monitor events in the woods. So it is up to you to keep alert and to keep others here up to date on breaking issues.
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Digital Services Act” went into effect in the European Union on Friday, and it establishes an extremely strict regime of Internet censorship that is far more authoritarian than anything we have ever seen before. From this point forward, hordes of European bureaucrats will be the arbiters of what is acceptable to say on the Internet. It forces tech giants like Google, Facebook, Amazon, and more to comply with sweeping legislation that holds online platforms legally accountable for the content posted to them. If you post something that someone in Europe might see, your content comes under the jurisdiction of this horrifying new law.
OBSERVATION - Chilling and will be interesting to see just how the big tech handles this. Europe has a very poor history of allowing for free speech and is highly censor oriented. This will clash with the US and its freedom of speech foundations. Historically, big tech has bowed down to censorship demands from overseas countries via firewalls and algorithmic barriers. Now this expands even further as far as I can read, possibly to website service providers.
The control of thoughts and speech at this kind of level will be a key requirement when the WEF’s new global order and reset occurs. This has always been a standard issue with tyrannical govts.
**
Protests in London are heating up as more and more people are calling for Sadiq Khans resignation
OBSERVATION - Khan is pushing the largest test run of the 15 minute city concept most recently noted for hundreds of cameras to ID and then the city will fine drivers something on the order of 17 pounds for travel violation. Recent pushback includes over 90% of these cameras being destroyed or disabled. The protests cross demographic boundaries and many see Khan being voted out of office. Huge totalitarianism on display - and folks, it is trying to come here to the US.
Economy –
Watching the seasons starting to shift to fall (along with the displays at WalMart), reminds me that Christmas will soon be here. That shopping season - Thanksgiving to Christmas - historically has been a make or break moment for the retail industry. It has struggled over the past few years due to wuhan, but a new threat is rising - excessive credit card debt. The total amount of credit card debt in the United States has surpassed the one trillion dollar mark and is now at the highest level ever recorded. For Americans to pile more card debt - at astronomical interest rates - would be sheer insanity. Some will, and face the consequences. Add to that the growing likelihood that the recession will not be able to be kicked further down the street and the bill for that will be hitting. Recessions bring layoff and unpaid credit card debt - which then will roll back onto the banks.
Economic discussions of this impending train wreck are not on the radar screens of most at this time. But I’m giving you a heads up now. Christmas sales have a high potential to crash this year - made worse by the incoming recession and card debt. Get your finances in order now and build a reserve. You don’t have much time to do so.
**
The Federal Reserve sent notices to regional banks on Wednesday, demanding corrective action to their capital levels, liquidity, and compliance. Regional banks with $100-$250 billion in capital – including Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, and M&T Bank – received the warnings as part of an effort to tighten supervision.
OBSERVATION - Some see this as a precursor to additional Fed rate hikes, which would make matters worse for these regional banks. Such a notice would give the banks a heads up to get their books in order to absorb higher rates.
**
US Q2 GDP was revised sharply downwards to 2.1% QoQ. Much lower than the expected 2.4% QoQ.
OBSERVATION - Foreshocks of what now is more firm data pointing to a FY 2024 recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Discussions floating around the interwebs concerning Tucker Carlson expressing concerns about a potential trump assassination.
OBSERVATION - He is just stating the obvious. I’ve stated similar concerns over the past months. Fueled by a supportive media, leftist extremists have been rumbling about eliminating conservatives and nothing could be more direct than the attempt to behead the most obvious threat to their power in DC - Trump. These same leftists have done it in the past here in the US as well as around the world, so it is not an outrageous consideration. This may become more apparent as the hollowness of the charges against Trump become more apparent in contrast to the biden crime family.
A hit on Trump, successful or not, could be a big trigger.. Some think this would be similar to the IRA’s fight in northern Ireland. Of course such an escalation in violence would be used by the regime to institute crackdowns on the population (see armed alphabet agencies below), which in turn would further expand the violence.
Leftists would embrace such an escalation as it is seen as a tool to eventually bring the entire country under its boots.
**
The militarization of the the alphabet agencies appears to have picked up steam under the biden regime. Any reason for these agencies to be militarized?
- The IRS has spent up nearly $700,000 in ammo in early 2022. This on top of increases in weapons spending.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture has also purchased of hundreds of .40-caliber submachine guns.
- The Small Business Administration has also made bulk purchases of guns and ammo. Health and Human Services has done the same.
OBSERVATION - Only one conclusion - the ‘police’ arms of these alphabet agencies will eventually be used against Americans.
**
“We are not gonna tolerate any looting in the aftermath,” DeSantis said, noting that signs in yards that say “You loot, we shoot” should be taken seriously. “People have a right to defend their property.”
“In this part of Florida, you’ve got a lot of advocates and proponents of the Second Amendment,” he continued.
OBSERVATION - Good words of warning, but the leftist will start screaming of white supremacy violence in 3….2…1.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
More proof of medical malfeasance and illicit profiteering from wuhan now that the evidence that ivermectin’s effectiveness against wuhan is growing.
https://thelibertydaily.com/ivermectin-worked-new-peer-reviewed-study-proves-it/
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senator Mitch McConnell freezes again while speaking at a press conference
OBSERVATION - Too many ‘leaders’ in washington in no medical condition to be making policies for the US. This is the second occurrence of him freezing up at a press conference.
China –
Country Garden, China’s largest private property developer, just reported a semi-annual loss of $6.7 billion, its second consecutive losing period (~$920 million in the second half of 2022). Country Garden has missed a $22.5 million of bond payments and is warning of a default if its financial performance gets worse.
OBSERVATION - With eyes on Evergrande, I’ve pointed out there were other corporations in deep in China’s growing property crisis. Developer defaults could spark a Chinese banking and financial crisis that may spread around the world because there is international investment in these corporations.
North/South Korea –
Observers are speculating as to what military displays NK may have up its sleeve when it celebrates its 75th Anniversary. Some are weighing in heavily that this may included a nuclear test of some kind - either underground or exoatmospheric.
**
North Korea said it has conducted a tactical nuclear strike drill simulating strikes on South Korea’s command posts and airfields in a “warning” against the United States’ deployment of strategic bombers to the region, state media reported.
This included the launch of two short ranged ballistic missiles
OBSERVATION - A not uncommon reaction by Kim to SK/US exercises. But it does give opportunity to work the bugs out of a potential nuclear response or first strike by NK, which is concerning. In this realm NK is not a backwater as it used to be.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
The link below is a good summary of Russian leadership shortfalls and I recommend taking the few minutes to look at it. Sums up a lot of the ‘why’ behind Russian failures on the battlefield.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20230831.aspx
Logistics –
White House says Russia has sent delegations to North Korea in order to obtain additional weaponry, primarily artillery, for the war in Ukraine. NSC spox John Kirby says Putin and Kim Jong Un have exchanged letters about this, but declined to comment on how US obtained the intel.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
President Zelensky said Ukrainian weapons successfully hit a target in 700kms away - confirming or psyops ? Number of destroyed/damaged cargo jets has been increased to 6.
Considerable discussion and evaluation of reported Ukraine success on the Tokmok axis - see below.
More Ukraine drone strikes in Russian and Crimea.
Tokmak Axis -.
Analysts are noting that there is a likelihood that Ukrainian forces have bypassed the ‘dragon teeth / tank trench “ marking the second line of defense to the west of Verbove and that there is a probably that some elements have reached the city. Analysts suspect a light unit (no armor or tanks) assaulted along the main highway to Verbove bypassing the obstacles. The fact that this may have been accomplished lies more on the failure of Russia to provide adequate oversight of these defenses. Common US military doctrine (echoed by numerous other armies) is that these defenses have to be tied into some sort of way to attack these forces that are being slowed by the obstacles. In this case, Russian artillery and direct fire were essentially absent, allowing Ukraine to make the advance.
Second component to the suspected failure of Russia is that the retreat of russian forces was not organized and that as they hit the deeper defensive belt they were not ready to mount a defense. This allowed Ukraine to follow in the vacuum. Situation is still foggy, but the available evidence suggests that Ukraine has penetrated and now stands to exploit the gap.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Russian milbloggers noting increased Ukraine attacks and are expressing concern over how thinly manned the defenses are.
Bakhmut Axis -
Continued Ukraine movement south of the city, placing Russian logistics supply lines in greater threat of interdiction.
Kherson Axis -
Though on a small scale, Ukraine continues to expand its bridgeheads across the Dniper River.
OUTLOOK –
I dread having to try to summarize the action once I get back from vacation. On the Tokmak Axis things stand to break open any minute as the Russian military is crumbling. Same on the Velyka Novosilka Axis.
There is increasing evidence that Russia has virtually no capability to reinforce the defenses via any kind of an operational or strategic reserve. They have been forced to laterally deploy forces to try to reinforce defense efforts - efforts that dangerously (for the Russian) thin portions of the line and leave poorly equipped and trained mobilized forces and national guard elements to face Ukraine. And Ukraine has taken advantage of this - complicating Russia’s response to Ukrainian efforts in the south.
On the deeper / strategic side of the war, Russia has not established any answer to Ukraine’s growing drone attacks on its home based targets. It wasn’t too long ago Russia issued nuclear threats if its bases in Russia were attacked. So far Russia has neither reissued such threats nor show any indicators of following through with them.
Russia is looking increasingly weak and incapable of responding to the changes in the battlefield in any kind of a timely manner. The only thing that appears to be slowing Ukraine down are the millions of mines tossed all over the place, but those are becoming fewer and less dense as they push southward - and Russian capabilities to put fire on targets slowed by these mines and other obstacles are dropping away quickly.
Situation is dynamic and can change rapidly.
Syria -
Syrian Foreign Minister -Our only demand for normalization of relations with Turkey is the complete withdrawal of its forces from all our lands
Turkey –
Two Turkish sources told Reuters: Erdogan will meet Putin in Sochi, Russia, on September 4
Africa general – WAR WATCH
The Kremlin: Food shortages in Africa have nothing to do with Russia
OBSERVATION - Ukraine historically has been a major supplier of grain to African nations. The war and Russia’s focus on destroying Ukraine’s grain stockpiles and shipping facilities has only made Africa’s conditions worse. Of late Russia as tried to leverage food into support for the putin regime .
**
The new authorities of Niger demanded the complete withdrawal of French troops from the country by September 3. At the moment, electricity and water supply are cut off at the base.
Misc of Note –
There is going to be a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) that day.
FEMA is coordinating with the Federal Communications Commission to carry out the test at approximately 2:20 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 4.
It will be split into two portions.
The WEA portion of the test will be directed to all consumer cell phones. This will be the third nationwide test, but the second test to all cellular devices. The test message will display in either English or in Spanish, depending on the language settings of the wireless handset.
The message will read: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.” The alerts are accompanied by a “unique tone and vibration” according to FEMA. All wireless phones should receive the message only once, authorities say.
The EAS portion of the test will be sent to radios and televisions. This will be the seventh nationwide EAS test.
OBSERVATION - This alert is already causing oversized concerns of a nefarious govt plot about to be hatched. During the cold war era, monthly air raid siren tests were conducted across the country - with little fan fare. Modern communications means - cell phones, internet, etc - would make notifications of emergencies far more timely and efficient. These tests need to be made, else a screw-up like the incoming missiles towards Hawaii that occurred several years ago will happen again. At this stage there is nothing on my radar that would indicate this alert is nothing but a test.
Exoatmospheric? Starfish Prime? EMP? Wipe out power and electronics for South Korea, Japan and northern China?
What could possibly go wrong?
We mean it in Florida - and we don't care what the leftist scream... That said, don't hang out in the woods too long or we'll come up with a satellite connection for you...
A lot of stuff to weed through and may have missed some key points, but potentially will circle back and catch them later this week if that is the case.
For all to note - September is Preparedness month - and with all the chaos in the country and world we are just one major event from things going sideways fast. Don’t procrastinate - get prepped now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The head of the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) stated just a few days ago that “central banks will have absolute control over all money (sic)”. This is in how each dollar (or whatever unit) is used, what people are allowed to buy, and what people are prohibited to buy.
OBSERVATION - Global digital currency. They will control what you buy.
**
The Department of Defense has awarded a contract to a New York-based artificial intelligence company Accrete AI to deploy software that can “predict” and counteract “disinformation” on social media platforms in real time.
OBSERVATION - First and foremost, the DoD has no business playing this kind of game. Second, as we’ve all learned over the past few years, ‘disinformation’ is that truth which undercuts the govt narrative. Most aggressively displayed during the past wuhan plandemic, where real science was censored as ‘misinformation’ and the country is finding out that the misinformation came from govt sources.
Economy –
In August, the unemployment rate jumped 0.3 points, from 3.5% 3.8%, as the number of long-term unemployed increased, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
The nation’s unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage point to 3.8% in August, as the number of unemployed persons increased by 514,000 to 6.4 million.
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 294,000 to 2.9 million in August, offsetting a decrease of 280,000 in July.
The rise in the unemployment rate, coupled an increase in job losers, highlights ongoing challenges in the economy. Meanwhile, the number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons remained unchanged.
OBSERVATION - Concerning numbers raising concerns for a more severe recession in the offing.
**
Personal Consumption Expenditures price (PCE) index – the Fed’s favorite inflation measure – rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, and the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released before the Fed’s September meeting. This suggests that the Fed will likely continue to increase the prime rate again.
**
Oil prices jumped about 2% on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a fresh extension to their voluntary supply cuts, stretching a combined 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd) reduction for another three months through December.
OBSERVATION - One thing that may mitigate costs is the end of the summer tourist/vacation season and an accompanying decrease in demand here. However this could cycle back to OPEC+ with further cuts to sustain higher prices per barrel.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
A Florida-based Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Industry Operations inspector (IOI) seized a federal firearms licensee’s (FFL) completed ATF Form 4473s and bound book to take off-site to make copies violating federal law. The IOI would return the documents a week later.
Last week, Kiloton Tactical joined a coalition of FFLs led by Eric Blandford of the Iraqveteran8888 YouTube channel and vowed to sue the ATF over the Biden Administration’s zero-tolerance policy for FFLs. The lawsuit has now been filed with the illegal actions of the IOI front and center in the complaint.
According to 18 U.S.C. 923(g)(1)(A), FFLs must maintain records such as a bound book and copies of the ATF Form 4473, which Kiloton Tactical did maintain. During an inspection, an IOI is able to look over records for policy violations but does not have the authority to inspect the documents off-site. This action is expressly prohibited by 27 CFR § 478.23(cd).
The statute reads:
“The inspections and examinations provided by this section do not authorize an ATF officer to seize any records or documents other than those records or documents constituting material evidence of a violation of law. If an ATF officer seizes such records or documents, copies shall be provided to the licensee within a reasonable time.”
At the time of the seizure, no wrongdoing was suspected. The IOI insisted he was within his legal rights to remove the documents from the store. The IOI’s deviation put him at odds with federal law.
The ATF’s IOI handbook doubles down on forbidding an IOI from removing records from a business. The ATF has been slow to release the IOI handbook to the public, and when they finally did, the document was heavily redacted. AmmoLand News acquired an unredacted copy of the guide from our sources inside the ATF. Every IOI is responsible for knowing the policies laid out in the handbook, but the ATF employee ignored page 10 of the handbook, which expressly prohibits IOIs from making any seizures.
OBSERVATION -
Govt working its plan by nibbling the edges where they can get away with it over the period. They will eventually lose in court, but in the interim spread fear in the gun dealerships over losses of their FFLs and lively hood. Govt gains access to records to illegally compile gun ownership listings of who owns what and where, so that when they hit phase two, civilians will be the next target.
**
Note while these instances occurred outside the US, it is going to hit here in spades.
Netanyahu announced the deportation of hundreds of Eritrean migrants after they broke out in rival groups and openly fought in Tel Aviv over the weekend. Similar factional fighting broke out in Calgary Canada as upwards of 150 Eritrean migrants faced off with clubs from pipes and wood in what media called a fight to the death.
OBSERVATION - Apparently these actions corresponded to some sort of political remembrance day ink Eritrea. It bodes ill for the rest of the world swamped with migrants pouring out of the middle east and Africa. And a situation very dangerous here in the US where under biden over 8 million illegals have poured into the country from many sectors. This influx has already created an substantial crime wave by these illegals and increased tensions between the formerly favored minority blacks in urban centers as well as surrounding predominantly white suburbs (noted protests in predominantly ‘red’ Staten Island overnight). Not only has the potential for inter-ethnic fighting from these illegals risen sky high, locally turning zones into ‘do not enter’ areas as found in Europe and growing mass violence against Americans will grow. They see what is happening in the world and the US and it won’t take long for them to take over the massive looting of stores from the local minority syndicates - creating more friction.
Quite simply, this massive turbulence is a desired goal of the powers that be as it will give them the ‘justification’ necessary for a national crackdown and suspension of Constitutional rights. We are sitting on a powder keg and the govt is playing with fire as the 2024 election approaches.
**
BLM was back out in force and marching over Ta’Kiya Young, who tried to drive over a police officer when confronted for shoplifting. Protests were relatively peaceful over the weekend.
OBSERVATION - Body cam footage pretty well took the wind out of the sales showing the car she was driving being accelerated towards the police officer. What is hurting them as well is the ‘national’ leadership scandal of taking all the funds raised and spending it on themselves.
**
Over 60 Antifa Militants were indicted under RICO For Atlanta ‘Cop City’ protests and attacks on Police Officers. This has sent shockwaves of concern through the Antifa community given the free ticket to violence they’ve enjoyed over the years.
OBSERVATION - This could potentially increase the probability of future violent protests in the Atlanta area.
Terrorism -
75,000 individuals on terror lists intercepted at the border last year. How many got through?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Local media reports say the amphibious group led by the USS America will take part in a joint exercise with South Korean forces. biggest show of strength near eastern China in 10 years
OBSERVATION - Currently only one carrier battle group is deployed - the USS Ford in the Med Sea near Turkey. All others are in port, leaving most of the major deployment consisting of amphibious groups like the USS America task force.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
If you’ve been missing the increasing squeal of joy by the covidians concerning the new wuhan variant, wake up. Increasing numbers of schools and businesses going back to failed mask mandates while other leftists are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of more lock/shut downs. What is known, and not surprising according to medical understanding, is this new variant is easily spread. That is how these critter evolve. The parallel fact is that they become far less lethal with this evolution. Common sense - the critter wants to live and multiply and it can’t do that if it is killing off its hosts.
Jill Biden has tested positive for COVID-19. Fully vac’d with two shots and two boosters that did nothing. Whoopee was also reported down with it as her cohorts on the View gleefully proclaimed that Covid is ‘back’.
OBSERVATION - With this are relatively baseless claims of increased ‘death’ as with the previous episode the actuals causes of death were not from the virus. The CDC is trying to dilute observations that the jabbed have had a higher inflection rate from this new strain than unjabbed, but saying equal infection rates. Bottom line is the jab once again proves to be worthless and the new ‘booster’ shot is destined to be the same - most likely more dangerous from its side effects than an infection by the wuhan bug.
Also, NOTE - Resistance to reinstated mandates is growing and could potentially flare up into massive civil disobedience
POLITICAL FRONT –
The train wreck of a potential govt shutdown on Oct 1 is looming large and both sides are establishing finger pointing positions. The most aggressive stance is coming from democrats who will try to pin any shut down on Freedom Caucus demands for a Continuing Resolution (CR) as “hostage taking. Democrats gain support for this from RINO house republicans.
**
More J6 convictions displaying the two tiered justice tyranny our country has devolved into.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a total disgrace to the honored veteran, Biden abruptly walked out of Medal of Honor Ceremony before the closing benediction.
Illegal Immigration –
SEE CW2 above for come observations on illegals and coming problems.
***
The town of Casper, Wyoming has been inundated with homeless people, with some estimates coming in at 200.
The town is full of abandoned structures, but one that has been hit particularly hard is the Econo Lodge, which was closed in November 2022 due to flooding. Squatters moved in and caused millions of dollars in damage to the already dilapidated building, including leaving 500 pounds of human waste behind. Vagrants have trashed abandoned structures, left feces in the streets, and generally created an atmosphere that has drawn condemnation from residents and municipal officials alike.
OBSERVATION -
Sadly - its happening in a ‘small town’ and Wyoming is frozen in its response. Note - only 200 needed to cause problems.
**
WaPo reports illegal crossings shot up again in August, w/ Border Patrol apprehending 177,000 migrants, including the highest number of families ever recorded. Illegal crossings have now risen 30% two months in a row,
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Kremlin is silent concerning a Chinese map claiming part of Russia’s territory as its own.
NOTE - Russia will have to pay the piper for China’s support and any ‘credit’ extended by China always comes with a big tab.
Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, according to the Kremlin. MbS expressed “gratitude” for Russia’s consistent support for Riyadh’s application to join BRICS [through Riyadh hasn’t responded to the invitation yet]. The two also spoke about their cooperation on OPEC [Riyadh recently announce new voluntary cuts to maintain oil prices]. The two said they were satisfied with the pace of economic relations between the two in a number of fields, and were considering deeper collaboration
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Kremlin announced Friday it was shifting the RS-28 Sarmat, a nuclear-capable missile unofficially called the “Satan II,” to combat readiness mode.
Logistics –
The Russian Federation removed S-300B (400?) air defense systems from the Kuril Islands. They could be transferred closer to Ukraine”, - Kyodo News
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is recruiting migrants from Central Asia for the war in Ukraine, British intelligence reports. Internet ads were seen in Armenia and Kazakhstan offering $5,140 in starting cash and wages starting at $1,973. Recruitment efforts aimed at ethnic Russians are taking place in the northern Qostanay region of Kazakhstan. At least since May 2023, Russia has been recruiting migrants from Central Asia to fight in Ukraine, promising them fast citizenship and a salary of up to $4,160.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Well, a little more than a 24 hour - more like a labor day weekend summary.
Russian forces continued to lose ground in the south and east Ukraine. The Robotdyn breakthrough is widening and the Russian defensive line could collapse.
Ukraine appears to have obtained a degree of drone air superiority in the south and over western Crimea. In addition to drone strikes in Crimea, tactical level drones have dramatically enhanced the Ukraine ability to locate and intercept Russian forces attempting to move troops and ammo to the beleaguered front lines.
Tokmak Axis -.
At Verbove Russian forces are facing potential flanking by Ukraine who’ve penetrated the northern end of trenches behind the dragon’s teeth line. The Ukraine attack is being lead by basic infantry forces and the trend is for them. Success in the next few days could leave the Russian positions untenable and force another retreat - an act that would permit Ukraine armor to push through the anti armor band and further south. Ukraine forces on the western flank of the Robotdyn salient continued to widen the penetration and threaten the direct route to Tokmak. Russia has reportedly moved elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault division from eastern Ukraine to the sector to try to stop the penetration.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Russia’s thinning of the defensive lines in order to shift forces to the Tokmok sector has weakened this axis and Ukraine forces are reportedly building for renewed attacks to exploit the weaknesses.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukrainian forces are pushing a near breakthrough south of Bakhmut.
Kherson Axis -
No significant developments as Ukraine slowly builds forces on the east bank and pushes outward.
Kupiansk Front -
Russian attempt to mount an offensive to freeze Ukrainian forces from the fight to the south has pretty well disintegrated into small unit attacks easily turned back.
OUTLOOK –
The battle around Verbove is developing into the decisive battle of the Ukraine offensive. Infantry forces slipped through the heavily mined and fortified second defensive belt and are pressing the war to attain the high ground north of the city. So far they have been succeeding and according to Russian sources, the troops there are hard pressed to stop them.
Nasty infantry assaults on trench works is a slow and costly process. Ukraine is succeeding because they have achieved artillery parity and in some instances superiority over Russia following months of targeting Russian systems and ammo supply sites / logistic routes. Ukraine can target section os the trenches with artillery, quickly followed up by infantry assaults while any artillery reply by Russia is minimal and opens those units up to the deadly and quick Ukrainian counter battery fire.
Supporting the effort is the much less restricted use of Ukraine drones to spot and target resupply / reinforcement efforts by Russia. Russia has currently lost most of its ability to counter Ukraine drones on the Tokmok front and is paying for it heavily.
As noted above, Ukraine is gaining the upper hand and could force the flank of Russian forces which would open the second defensive line here wide open.
Meanwhile, the 76th GAAD mention shows just how desperate Russia is. It has no operational reserves and had to pull elements of this air assault division from the eastern front. OSINT elements see the 76th as Russia’s currently most capable unit - not saying much considering the state the rest of the army is in. Prior to the war, the 76th was one of the elite units. Now with a year and half of fighting, though in name still an elite, its numbers have been substantially cut and replacements far less highly trained. It is currently feeling the effects of being drawn into the tar baby Ukraine is creating south and west of Robotdyn, pulling Russian forces into a situation where Ukraine can chew them up via an economy of force effort supported by now at least locally superior artillery and drone capabilities.
Speaking of drones, Ukraine’s SEAD operations have opened up western Crimea to drones. It has also brought back the Turkish Bayktars into prominence.
Europe / NATO General –
In spite of Romanian denials, parts of a Russian drone found in Romania, close to village Plaurul, Ceatalchioi, Tulcea county, in the Danube Delta following an attack a few days ago.
OBSERVATION - The denials may have been an attempt to deescalate the situation before the pubic got riled up. Such a carry over of the Ukraine war into Romania could trigger a NATO Article 5 response.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia is providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine for the first time since the Russian invasion of the country. Armenia is re-evaluating its relationship with Russia as Azeri forces impose tighter blockades of the Nagoro-Karambash region and Russia fails to come to its aid.
Of course, we're the villains for noticing...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Leaders will discuss a proposal for “global baseline” cryptocurrency standards at this weekend’s Group of 20 (G20) summit in India, according to a Reuters government source.
OBSERVATION - While I’m not a crypto guy - even more fiat than the dollar IMHO, it does serve as a means of commerce and payment that bypasses the traditional financial gatekeepers and govt taxation. This is an effort believed to seek controlling crypto exchanges the will force transactions into the open, providing a means to control transactions. This is a step towards eliminating competition with the eventual CBDC that will globally come into play.
Economy –
September may be the month of reckoning for the US economy as the end of the FY approaches and any papering over of the woes businesses have been experiencing comes off. A number of analysts indicate that small to medium businesses are most at risk of a major recession, not uncommon, but this time around the deck is being stacked by the govt in support of the big companies -the Walmart, etc., like they were doing the plandemic shutdowns. This this has the potential to cause even deeper economic upheaval incorporated into a recession.
Tie this in with an increasing probability of a govt shut down and things could get interesting very fast. How soon will those receiving EBT welfare monies be affected? I don’t know if they are on the one month post payment plan, like SS payments - being paid in September for August - thus delaying chaos for a month. But I expect that there will be a strong effort to keep the welfare class fat and happy while the rest of the nation struggles.
***
As of July, Americans are saving less – and more than half are living paycheck-to-paycheck – new reports reveal.
“61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets,” CNBC reported on Thursday, citing a new Lending Club study on July 2023 consumer trends.
Also on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “Personal Income and Outlays” report for July, revealing that Americans’ average personal savings rate fell from 4.3% in June to 3.5% in July.
July’s 3.5% savings rate is a mere quarter of its 13.4% level when former Pres. Donald Trump left office and more than twice the 7.2% savings rate recorded during Trump’s first full month in the White House.
OBSERVATION - Precarious situation with a recession looming in on the horizon.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
I noted under Economy above the potential of a govt shutdown to shutdown EBT cards and money. Does anyone know if the payments are shifted by one month (Sept payments for Aug?) Could be a stimulus for increased protesting and looting of stores if the cards are not reloaded with money in a timely manner.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
SMH, continued loony toons push to reinstate masks and mandates for an even greater nothing burger wuhan variant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Parallel note that this can also fall under CW2 info.
A group of voters in Colorado filed a lawsuit Wednesday seeking to keep former President Donald Trump off the ballot in the state, arguing he is disqualified from holding public office under a rarely used provision of the 14th Amendment.
The suit was filed in state court in Denver by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) on behalf of six Republican and unaffiliated voters who are challenging Trump’s listing as a candidate on the 2024 Republican presidential primary ballot and any future ballot.
OBSERVATION - Clearly a pattern is developing. Four (with a potential pending 5th ) indictments of Trump for a wide range of alleged illegalities has only boosted his ratings, and not tanked his run for presidency. leftists and never trumpers are going for the next level -barring him from the ballot via 14th amendment arguments. Serious scent of desperation from the left / deep state is accompanying these lawsuits. This makes Tucker Carlson’s concerns over an assassination attempt even more possible. The left is at a any means necessary juncture and are losing the initiative - possibly triggering the third level attack - physical.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Covering up for biden’s gaffs only gets worse. When questioned about biden walking away from the Medal of Honor recipient the WH press spox KJP reaffirms the fact that the walkout was ‘On Purpose.’
KJP: “That was done on purpose. That was done very purposefully.”
OBSERVATION - How can she sleep at night with all the manufactured lies she spews daily.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Continued rumors that a covert govt induced cyber attack on our banking system is in the works as a means to forcibly transfer all transactions to CBDC and eliminate physical cash. Levels of conspiracy theory involved, but with the track record of such conspiracies coming true over the past few years, this cannot be ruled out. Especially when some of the chief sources of these ‘rumors’ are WEF officials and underlings.
Illegal Immigration –
Fed Judge Ezra ruled on Wednesday in favor of the DOJ’s argument that Governor Abbott violated the federal Rivers and Harbors Act when he deployed the buoy barrier near Eagle Pass through Operation Lone Star without getting clearance from the Army Corps of Engineers. Governor Abbott contends that he has the constitutional right to secure the state’s border.
OBSERVATION - Interesting that they claimed failure to permit via USACOE for the barriers, and not dominion over border enforcement policies. Also, how can USACOE claim control over a river shared with Mexico. Expect appeals.
**
Meanwhile, Mayor Adams of NYC bemoaning the end of his dream sanctuary city—
“Let me tell you something New Yorkers. Never in my life have I ever had a problem that I did not see an ending to.
I don’t see an ending to this. I don’t see an ending to this.
This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.”
OBSERVATION - Cry me a river, go talk to the nut jobs in DC that are enabling the now 8 million plus disaster.
However, with that said, his problem is growing nation wide and reaching the point where all will be impacted in one way or another.
China –
Biden officials said Chinese nationals gained access to military bases and sensitive sites over 100 times since 2019, often posing as tourists and even using specialized diving equipment.
OBSERVATION - China knows that under biden, the US is becoming a paper tiger and that with the proper ‘excuse’ their penetration attempts will be written off as a tourist mistake. This cover has been working for a lot longer than 2019, but it seems, at least to the unnamed official(s) this activity has increased significantly.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia said that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is on schedule, but didn’t mention their transfer to the country.
“The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is being carried out according to the schedule that the Russian president spoke about. Now several stages of establishment of the relevant infrastructure or equipment of the relevant carriers have been completed there. We continue this work. [...] If the leadership considers it possible and desirable to provide details of what is happening, this will be done. As of today, I don’t have any additions or changes to what was previously said on this topic,” he said.
At the same time, Ryabkov said nothing about the transfer of TNW to Belarus and didn’t mention details on the timing of the tasks.
Kerch Bridge update –
Persistant reports of shutdowns of the bridge to traffic separate from Ukraine drone (sea and air) attacks. Some suspect that the bridge is still to weak for extended vehicle travel and usage. Others suggest periodic closures due to repair work.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures have cooled to the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive operations at Melitopol and Bakhmut frontline, have success west to Verbove and south to Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region. Russia launched another drone attack, the vast majority of which were shot down.
Tokmak Axis -.
At Verbove efforts continue to pivot the margins the Russian defenses on the northern side of the city.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine is gaining greater control of the terrain south of the city.
Russian Territory –
Several explosions were heard in Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Russian telegram reports that the Southern Military Command, overseeing the war in was hit. Other ‘official’ Russian sources say the drones missed the target.
OUTLOOK –
We are at the anniversary of the Kharkiv offensive that swept Russia out of the oblast and devastated as substantial portion of their army. This also triggered the Kherson offensive as Russia discovered it couldn’t sustain operations on both fronts and the Kherson forces were in danger of being isolated and destroyed in detail due to Ukraine cutting off bridges over the Dniper River. Current fight in southern Ukraine holds potential for a similar defeat of Russian forces and a quick armor thrust to the south.
Day to day activity will remain relatively constant. Ukraine efforts on the northern margin of Verbove continue to put stress on the longer term ability of Russian forces to hold their positions and when that falls, I expect a quick Ukraine armor thrust to exploit the opening. Ukraine’s drone game, both tactical and strategic, continues to set conditions for success on the front lines. I see increasing reports of Ukrainian drones discovering Russian reinforcement and logistical movements to the front lines, followed by a nasty round or Ukraine artillery including cluster munitions. In many cases the column is stopped by attack drones long enough to permit the artillery to finish the matter. Russia is struggling to regain at least tactical drone equality in the key regions of the front, but Ukraine continues to ID and target those Russian drone assets and air defense elements - with a high degree of success.
Clock is running on when the wet season returns. But typically those fall/winter storms don’t arrive for at least another month or two. Degraded mobility may be Russia’s only hope to put some breaks on the Ukrainian offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania confirms that Russian drone strikes occurred 800 meters from its borders
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that there was no sign Russia had launched a deliberate attack on Romania after possible UAV debris was found near its border with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Definitely a warning wrapped in nice words to Russia. But even an ‘accidental’ strike on NATO terrain is grounds for an Article 5 response and that seems to be the underlying warning to Russia. It will not tolerate for long ‘spillage’ of the fight into Romania. Worse case at this time for Russia would be a NATO air defense cover that may extend over Ukraine because that is the direction the Russian munitions are coming from in order to prevent more ‘spillage’.
Syria -
More anti-govt protests are breaking out in S. Syria.
Mexico -
Next year’s presidential elections will be between Morena (National Regeneration Movement) candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and Frente Amplio (Broad Front) candidate Xóchitl Galvéz. They will face off in the June 2024 presidential election. Sheinbaum was beating Galvéz by 10 points in recent polling data and is the favorite to win in June to carry on AMLO’s so-called Fourth Transformation of Mexico.
OBSERVATION - If current polls follow through to the election, then there will be very little change in Mexican/US relations and a strong probability of continued support to illegals transiting through the country.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
“Azerbaijan has massed forces along the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border with Armenia over the last few days,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told government officials while adding that “the military-political situation in our region has seriously worsened.”
Pashinyan said Azerbaijan is “demonstrating its intention to undertake a fresh miltary provocation against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.”
Azerbaijan derided Armenia’s statements as “yet another false political manipulation.”
OBSERVATION - Armenia is in trouble as much of the deterrent against future Azeri aggression has been based on Russia, and that giant sucking sound has been that support being shifted towards the war with Ukraine. Azeri have been blockading a key supply road to the highly disputed Nagorno-Karabakh for a year now and Azeri started incidents have recently been on the rise. Not sure if this will lead to another round of major fighting in the near future or just more tightening the screws on Armenian controlled portions of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The apparent abandonment by Russia is causing Armenia to seek stronger ties, especially military, with the US. The Armenian government said Wednesday that it will hold joint drills with US troops from September 11 to 20.
Russia is not happy with the shift in attention.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
France is reportedly negotiating for removal of its forces from Niger.
Globalism / Great Reset –
United Nations announces Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum and UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres have signed an agreement to ‘accelerate’ Agenda 2030
OBSERVATION- Somewhat unconfirmed reports, but very likely given the movement by both towards the 2030 goals
**
Mentioned yesterday about a rumored cyberattack that shuts down banking related operations. Today, I note that there are concerns regarding one of the big credit card charging systems used by small businesses - Square - not functioning properly as well as issues with other systems like ApplePay. I don’t think this is the ‘big one’ many were warning about, but does show that even some disruptions can cause millions of dollars of losses.
Economy –
U.S. gasoline prices are headed higher in the nation’s corn belt, and could rise by as much as $1 per gallon at some gas stations, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy warned on Thursday.
GasBuddy’s Patric DeHaan implored the EPA to issue fuel waivers ASAP, as the wholesale price of gasoline spikes in Oklahoma, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, and Kansas.
“ALERT: #GasPrices will likely rise 25-75c/gal in OK, MO, SD, ND, NE, MN and KS over the next few days. Some stations may go up closer to $1/gal as the wholesale price of gasoline is spiking in this region. EPA should move to issue fuel waivers ASAP,” DeHaan said in a Thursday morning tweet.
The huge spike in that single area could send the national average a few cents higher, DeHaan added—and pump prices have already hit the highest seasonal level in more than a decade. The current average for a gallon of gasoline in the United States is $3.803, up from $3.764 this same time last year, according to AAA data published on Thursday.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices have risen to their highest seasonal level since 2012, defying expectations for significant relief at the pumps after the U.S. Labor Day weekend as oil prices have soared on Saudi production cuts.
OBSERVATION - The article lacks any good reason for the spike other than noting that stockpiles of fuel are down. Here in the Redoubt, gas prices have been climbing - up about 60 cents / gallon over the past month with diesel starting to spike even higher.
**
Mortgage rates retreated slightly this week, but remained above 7% for the fourth consecutive week as homebuyers continue to face a costly housing market.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage pulled back to 7.12% from 7.18% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac. That marked the first time since April 2002 that rates have exceeded 7% for four straight weeks.
OBSERVATION - No economic turnaround in the short term as long as interest rates remain this high.
Illegal Immigration –
A federal appeals court handed Gov. Greg Abbott a temporary victory Thursday night, granting a request by Texas to leave its anti-migrant buoys in place pending further review.
**
The Biden administration is considering forcing migrants who cross into the United States illegally to remain in Texas while they wait out their asylum screening.
Administration officials cite the proposed plan as a way to curb the flow of illegal immigrants at the southern border, The Los Angeles Times reported, citing three U.S. officials not authorized to discuss the matter.
The plan would force migrants to remain in Texas, or possibly other border states by tracking their location through GPS monitoring devices, such as ankle bracelets, the officials told the Times.
OBSERVATION - IIRC biden attempted this once before and the courts shot it down. It would appear to me that this is an effort to counter Texas and other border states bussing of illegals to liberal blue city hell hole sanctuaries. Thing is, biden would prevent them from coming across the border in the first place and these measures will do very little to prevent them from leaving Texas.
North/South Korea –
This Saturday will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Korea, Many observers are expecting Kim to have many demonstrations and tests of strategic missiles and related systems - even a nuclear test of some sort.
**
NK rolled out a new SLBM sub with what appears to be launch tubes for 10 SLBM’s. Photos indicate that there are four larger doors up front with 6 smaller ones in the back - so maybe they’re going to use this sub for two different SLBM systems.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Logistics –
Russia’s military is reportedly struggling to find enough rubber to replace worn tires on its military vehicles, which could become even more of a problem in winter when conditions worsen. This was noted to be a problem shortly after the start of the invasion as cheaply made tires failed rapidly. Now dealing with treadless tires that will become worthless in the oncoming Ukraine mud. This will only compound Russian logistics problems.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian media report that Major General Konstantin Ogienko, commander of the 1st Order of Lenin’s Special Purpose Air and Missile Defenses Forces Army, which protects Moscow from air strikes, has been arrested for bribery.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures have cooled to the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive operations at Melitopol and Bakhmut frontline, have success west to Verbove and south to Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region.
Overnight, Russia launched drone attack where 16 out of 20 Shaheds were destroyed. All shot down within the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
Ukraine announced that they are bringing in one of their largest grain harvests ever -in spite of the war. Russia continues to try to disable port facilities to block shipments leaving the country. Croatia has announced it is expanding its operations to have Ukraine grain shipped out of its ports.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force has been protecting cargo vessels carrying grain from Ukraine in the Black Sea.
The Ministry of Defense increased RAF activity after Russia began attacking ships in July, when it scrapped a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain from its ports.
Crimean front —
Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in Crimea are being moved north to try to stabilize the Russian defenses.
Russian Territory –
Russia’s Federal Customs Service warehouses in Moscow detonated with multiple secondary explosions following a Ukraine drone strike.
A drone attacked the “Kremniy EL” microelectronics plant in Bryansk. As a result of the attack, one of the buildings caught fire. The plant was already attacked by drones a week ago.
This is one of the largest manufacturers of microelectronics in Russia. 94% of the enterprise’s production in 2017 was produced for the needs of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The plant makes parts for “Pantsir” air defense systems and “Iskander” missile systems.
OUTLOOK –
Russia continues to lose terrain in the east and south.
The saga of the lack of Russian forces to stop the gains in the south has been made clear by better reports on the lateral redeployment of the 76th GAAD. OSINT folks tracking units note that the 76th was holding the Russian line just north of Bakhmut, with three other armies to its north. Its pullout was reportedly covered by a recently mobilized army - at likely significantly below standard strength and one of the other armies being rotated out. This places the region north of Bakhmut even more understrength.
The 76th was given no time to recover, moving from being in contact in the east to trying to restore Russian defenses in the south. A very tough task under any condition.
The shuffling of Russian forces reinforces the thought that any Russian attempt of a major offensive on the Kupiansk Front is mostly psyops.
I mentioned that this is the one year anniversary of the Kharkiv offensive that drove Russia back to the border.. The Ukraine offensive kicked off when forces were able to penetrate Russian defenses then spread laterally to rampage through rear areas in a near classical armor blitz that decimated Russian units. The parallel today is the Ukraine efforts along the Tokmok axis, having penetrated the first line of defenses, and gaining advantage in the second line, a breach there would permit a similar Ukraine armor push into key Russian logistical rear area operations and Russia has committed virtually all but its cooks and bottle washers to the front, leaving the rear areas vastly unmanned.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania is considering evacuating residents of the border village of Plauru due to the Russian attacks.
The village is located opposite the town of Izmail in Odesa Region, Ukraine. Local residents complain that Russian drones attacking the port in Izmail are flying over their houses.
OBSERVATION - A significant development that may push Romania to establish an air defense zone that covers approaches by drones over Ukraine as well.
Syria -
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has sent over 60 Iranian-backed militants to Daraa Province to prevent the expansion of the ongoing, anti-Syrian regime protests in southern Syria.
OBSERVATION - Syria is losing control over the southern tip of the country and these Iranian militias are thugs who’s purpose is to bludgeon the populace back into line. The problem is the Syrian economy is not getting fixed, so these protests will continue and likely spread.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Lee strengthened to a Cat 5 overnight. Current spaghetti models indicate that it will make a hard right hand turn and move northeast off the coast of the US, sparing us a strike. Lee is the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Pay attention to the following sections were the complaint minions of the WEF goals are attempting to implement those goals on an incremental basis.
Economy –
Language in the appropriations bills in both chambers of Congress funding the Department of Energy will force the sale of a 1 million barrel gasoline reserve created after Hurricane Sandy in 2014. The East Coast region uses just over 3 million barrels of gasoline per day. Proponents for selling off the reserve argue that 1 million barrels of gasoline is not sufficient, but eliminating that 1 million barrels could make some states on the East Coast more vulnerable to shortages that impact emergency services that need gasoline for transport. Eliminating the reserve introduces a new point of failure for a coordinated response to extreme weather, like Hurricane Lee, which could hit the mid-Atlantic coast in the coming weeks. (Forward Observer)
OBSERVATION - Key point - a new point of failure. One million barrels is better than nothing, but the move to eliminate it all together is really not the wisest thing in any situation.
IN RELATED - Biden reversed policy and closed off a substantial area of Alaska to oil exploration and development, sparking lawsuits.
***
Things in the housing market continue to deteriorate. Sales of pre-existing homes is down something on the order of 30% largely because those homeowners are unwilling to lose their sub 3% loan for a 7+% mortgage. This trickles down from the realtors back into the economy. Forecast of excessively high interest rates for the next several years is not helping.
People who purchased with the intent to ‘flip’ the home at a higher price are quickly finding themselves underwater and banks are now facing a crisis of mortgage failures - against an already hurting banking scene. This has caused banks to be far more selective with who it loans its money to - pushing home seekers back into the inflated rental market.
Plenty of doom and gloom, we’ve not see the likes of these conditions even in the 2008 crash - in large part because the rest of the economy is suffering with very little traction to bounce back.
***
More Americans are falling behind on their car loan and credit card payments than at any time in more than a decade, a troubling signal of consumer stress as higher prices and rising borrowing costs are squeezing household budgets.
OBSERVATION - Get out of credit card debt now. Downsize your means of living as the cost of borrowing is only going to rise over the next years, not drop.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The New Mexico governor has declared a gun violence emergency and has issued an order to suspend open and concealed carry of guns in Albuquerque after an 11-year-old was killed.
OBSERVATION - The governor declared a “health emergency” in order to justify the suspension of 2d Amendment rights. I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions here that the “health emergency” avenue is one of the most likely methods the tyranny will use to curb 2d Amendment rights. The AMA for years now has called gun violence a medical issue. The WHO will likely try to make a similar declaration once its new powers to direct global health responses are passed next year. The governor is experiencing extreme push back - especially for her open statement that inspire of her oath of office she will not uphold the Constitution. In light of recent USSC decisions, her edict cannot stand and court challenges are likely being filed as I type.
Once again let me make the point - the leftists see the “health emergency” aspect as a back door means to shut the 2d down. How successful the left is in New Mexico could be a template for other leftist governors and biden to exploit.
***
kalifornia passed a law placing an 11% sales tax on all arms and ammunition. I expect the legal challenge to follow that of poll taxes of the day - you cannot tax a constitutional right.
**
The 5th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals ruled Friday that the Biden White House, top government health officials and the FBI likely violated the First Amendment by improperly influencing tech companies’ decisions to remove or suppress posts on covid-19.
OBSERVATION - One victory in the ongoing propaganda war being waged against the citizens of the US by the biden regime. The court’s decision is particularly biting and forthright against the administration.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See Europe / NATO General concerning Military exercises “Sea Breeze 23.3”
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The View has spoken
“They need to be resettled elsewhere”
The View calls for the illegals in New York City to be dumped in other communities across the U.S. because “this is a massive country.”
OBSERVATION - Need I say more - the hypocrisy of these arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy is off the charts.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A Georgia special grand jury recommended charging one current and two former US senators and 18 other allies of ex-President Donald Trump, a newly released report says.
But prosecutors decided not to indict them for alleged efforts to reverse the 2020 election results in the state.
The jury had voted to recommend indictments against Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and former Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
The full report was released on Friday.
OBSERVATION - Some pundits suggest that they were not charged because it would hit the hornets nest that is the republican side of congress - and that the passivity of the congressional republicans towards Trump is needed to be maintained. Such charges would fire up congressional inquiries even more towards the whole process of this grand jury and prosecutorial misconduct.
***
FBI Director Christopher Wray is pushing to renew a major spy program.
An unlikely alliance of right- and left-wingers in Congress has pushed this year to overhaul Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a provision that allows the government to spy on the emails and electronic communications of foreigners living abroad. The provision has come under harsh criticism due to the revelation that the FBI misused data collected under the provision to spy on Americans. Despite criticism, the Biden administration has made it a top priority to renew the provision, arguing that it is essential for national security. Section 702 is due to expire on Dec. 31.
OBSERVATION - Keep under consideration as a CW2 component as well. From the DoJ/FBI’s abuse of the law to spy on Trump and citizens for political purposes - basically lying to the overseeing judges - and that biden wants it renewed as is is justification enough to kill the section. The govt is no longer trust worthy in this matter and is spying on citizens through a plethora of other means.
***
The California State Assembly passed a bill Friday that would require judges in child custody cases to consider whether a parent has affirmed a child’s “gender transition” by making “gender affirmation” an equal part of a child’s “health, safety, and welfare” under state law.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is expected to sign the bill into law. Under it, parents who refuse to participate in transgenderism by pretending that their child is a different gender could be guilty of failing to provide for the “health, safety, and welfare” of their child—therefore losing custody to another parent or the state.
OBSERVATION - Where Kalifornia goes, so goes the nation is the old saying. Besides the whole transgender issue, the key is the govt declaring control over your children to do to them what ever the state wishes. Similar has already been passed on the issues of abortion. One of the goals of communism is to strip parental rights from families and impose the state as the ultimate ‘parent’.
IMHO - this even goes back to the explosive expansion of the school lunch program.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Newscum declares Harris to be the heir apparent to biden as he declines to throw his hat in the 2024 democrat primary.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden’s proposed plan to keep illegals in the state of Texas (and possibly the other border states) is seen as a ploy to keep northeast and midwest blue metro areas supportive of his agenda. TX Gov Abbot has come out and said that such a policy would not prevent him from bussing more illegals into the sanctuary city/states.
China –
Bloomberg) — The offshore yuan weakened toward its lowest on record against the dollar, as a cut to the daily reference rate for the managed currency stoked bets China is comfortable with a gradual depreciation.
China’s currency declined as low as 7.3623 per dollar in overseas trading, beyond the psychologically important level of 7.35 and close to the weakest since the creation of the offshore yuan market in 2010. The move came after the People’s Bank of China set its so-called fixing at a two-month low on Friday.
The PBOC is faced with a daunting task of maintaining the so-called impossible trinity, where it needs to stabilize the exchange rate and prevent capital outflows while keeping an independent monetary policy. But China’s sluggish economy and dovish policy are heaping pressure on the yuan, especially as resilient US data and a high interest-rate differential there has traders favoring the dollar.
OBSERVATION - One key point here is by making the yuan weaker, it makes Chinese products more desirable to the west because of lower prices. This could serve to help fire up the Chinese economy due to greater demands of goods by the west - in this case being the US. This would increase the US trade deficit with China by even more than it currently is.
North/South Korea –
North Korea conducted an overnight paramilitary parade with Kim Jong Un, his daughter and other top officials in attendance on Saturday. A Chinese delegation and Russian guests watched the procession of civil forces march through the streets of Pyongyang. This weekend is the 75th anniversary of the creation of NK.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian repair crews working on the Kerch (Crimean) Bridge recently replaced a section damaged by Ukraine’s strike in July, new satellite imagery shows.
Logistics –
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia reportedly attempting to recruit special forces from Afghanistan to fight in Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures have cooled to the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
RUMINT –
US is reportedly including ATACAMs with the next shipment of munitions.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Army has launched an attack near Opytne and has taken new territory bringing it closer to the Donetsk Airport. In 2014 there was massive battle about the control of this airport and the second one in 2015.
Reports of continued progress on all fronts, though the details are getting foggy again.
Bakhmut Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that more than half of Klishchiyivka is controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Russians are reportedly are retreating along the line of Andriivka and Kurdyumivka, south of Bakhmut. Again, these are unconfirmed reports, but if this is occurring, then the Russian position in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly tenuous. Much of the questionableness of the Russian withdrawal comes from conflicting Russian Milblogger reports.
Partisan Resistance ——
According to the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov , the United Russia headquarters in Polohy was blown up when party members were “drawing” the results of pseudo-elections there.
NOTE - “Elections” were held in the occupied territories with the expected slant for Russian backed candidates and initiatives to win as a given.
OUTLOOK –
Overall OSINT assessments indicate that Russia is concentrating forces to block direct advancement toward Tokmok. This is permitting Ukraine to focus of the weak area around Verbove, which IMHO is more dangerous to Russia.
We’ve heard the ATACMS story all summer and now it may be close to coming to Ukraine. If the reports are true, then Russia will be in a very deep pickle as the rockets will be able to target a significantly larger area and be nearly impossible for Russian ADA to intercept. An obvious target is the Kerch Bridge, still undergoing repairs from the last attack. Destruction of this bridge is one of the critical strategic goals of Ukraine which would dramatically reduce the logistical support to the Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Larger logistic depots and command and control as well at troop concentrations in the south and east are already pushed back from the front lines hampering the Russian war effort, now will have to go even deeper - way deeper. But until we see the systems in use, things remain speculative.
There are also rumors that Russia is trying to run a crypto-mobilization but having poor success. Some claims of a 200,000 man call up are in progress, but to get them together, trained, equipped and sent to the front will take many months - unless they do as they have before and ship them straight to the front.
Areas to watch are Verbove and possibly the fight at Opytne. This last one may be symptomatic of Russian weakening the defense lines by shifting forces against the main Ukrainian efforts. Looks like Ukraine is exploiting a weakness that lateral reinforcements have created. Could be quite the battle as the conflicts in 2014 and 2015 attest to.
Belarus -
About 2100 servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces remain in Belarus: almost the entire contingent of the regional group of troops was withdrawn.
All the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces were withdrawn from Belarus: the aviation component of the regional group of troops no longer exists.
According to @Hajun_BY, one of the main events of August can be called the withdrawal of the entire aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which was part of the regional group of troops. It happened back on August 5.
- 11 helicopters (4 Mi-8 and 7 Mi-24) of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Machulishchy airfield to Seshcha airfield (Bryansk oblast, Russia).
- 9 Su-34 and Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia.
Most of the departed helicopters and aircraft had been stationed in Belarus since the beginning of January 2023. Thus, the aviation component of the regional group of troops in Belarus no longer exists. As of September 1, only one Su-25 attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces remained in Belarus, it arrived at Machulishchy airfield on July 25 and redeployed to Lida airfield on August 31.
OBSERVATION - The shifting of forces out of Belarus and the resulting stopping of most training is an indicator on just how bad things are going for Russia against the Ukraine offensive and they are pulling reinforcements from anywhere they can. This withdrawal of forces pretty much puts a fork in the rumors of a second attempt to invade Ukraine from the north.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania and the USA will conduct exercises with Ukraine in the Black Sea and the Danube delta”, — Press service of the Romanian Navy. Military exercises “Sea Breeze 23.3” will take place from September 11 to 15. Military personnel from Bulgaria, France, Great Britain and Turkiye will also take part in the exercises.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge warning shot to Russia and any further efforts to block freedom of shipping in the Black Sea. This may also signal a more aggressive posture by NATO in the Black Sea region to reign in Russian actions.
***
The United States will place a military base in Finland, - Finnish publication Iltalehti, citing the country’s President Sauli Nininiste.
The infrastructure of the air base in the province of Lappi will be used to host the first F-35s of the Finnish BBC. The Pentagon also plans to conclude similar agreements in the near future with two more Scandinavian countries - Denmark and Sweden. An agreement on the location of an American military base in Norway has already been reached.
OBSERVATION - These bases are on Russia’s doorstep and putin is likely to look sourly upon it. However, Russia is powerless at this point caught up in the quagmire of the Ukraine war to do much about it. Not mentioned is the significant build up of US forces in Poland since the start of the Ukraine war.
***
Estonia plans to be the first in the EU to legalize the confiscation of Russian sanctioned assets, - the country’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has said.
The funds are planned to be used “for the purposes of Ukraine’s reconstruction”.
The Estonian government plans to approve the relevant draft law within two weeks and submit it to parliament for ratification.
OBSERVATION - The Baltic states have been very up front in their opposition to Russia. This is due in large part to the violent oppression they were under during the old Soviet Union era. If the Russian-Ukraine war expands, I fully expect that the Baltic states and Poland (and possibly even Romania) will be engaged.
Israel –
Not noted lately but have been continuing are stresses and protests for and against judicial reforms. Plus nearly daily small terror attacks against Jewish citizens by terrorists coming out of the West Bank / Jenna region.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
“In recent days, Armenia has taken a number of unfriendly steps, including initiating the process of ratifying the Rome Statute, humanitarian aid to Kyiv, as well as conducting military exercises on the territory of Armenia with the participation of USA”, - Russian MFA
OBSERVATION - Recent actions by Azeri forces have made the situation even more critical. Russia has reduced its efforts to essentially lip service - though at one time was the guarantor of Armenian security.
RUMINT - Armenia intelligence agencies says they have uncovered Russia plans to carry out Coup d’etat with 12 thousands Wagner PMC militants currently in Armenia to install someone loyal to Russia.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Lee is still expected to miss south east US, but now updated models are suggesting that it could slam into the East Coast next week, bringing deadly storm surge and heavy rains to Boston and New York City, conjuring up memories of Superstorm Sandy’s catastrophic impact on the region. The European model of the storm’s path, analyzed by CBS New York, shows the storm directly hitting Boston, but also could impact New York City and parts of Long Island given its massive size.
OBSERVATION - Freepers living in the northeast better monitor the situation closely and be prepared to bug out should the forecast bear true. The current social conditions in the region - particularly NYC and Boston - are not a resilient as it was under Sandy, meaning a far dangerous situation.
Never Forget - tomorrow is the 22d anniversary of the islamic attack on America.
The event that initiated this thread as a sounding board for potential other attacks and threats to his nation. Now instead of islamists, the biggest threat to this country has boiled down to the government itself and the swamp creature working to submit us to globally run communism outlined by the WEF and its allies.
Globalism / Great Reset –
World Economic Forum (WEF) Chairman Klaus Schwab has called on governments around the world to begin merging with the unelected corporate elite to usher in his agenda to end “the era of capitalism.”Schwab made the comments during an address at this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.
The WEF founder argues that governments must embrace his globalist organization’s allies and allow corporate power elites to begin forging public policy.
During his speech, Schwab took the opportunity to dictate his plans for the merging of state and corporate power.
During a previous interview with India Today, Schwab discussed who would command his dystopian Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Klaus Schwab said he believed that it would be a system of stakeholder capitalism.
“I believe that state capitalism is the short term,” he said.
“In the short term, it provides certain advantages because you can mobilize, in a concentrated way, a lot of resources to reach a specific objective.
“But I believe that the future is not state capitalism or shareholder capitalism, the future is what I call stakeholder capitalism which is combined with the social responsibility.”
Schwab’s stakeholder capitalism system is one where companies seek long-term value creation instead of short-term profits and governments cooperate with them.
In other words, the unelected leaders of for-profit companies are in charge of society.
https://slaynews.com/news/klaus-schwab-calls-governments-merge-unelected-corporate-elite/
OBSERVATION - He is a non-governmental person addressing governmental authorities. A testimony to the massive amount of wealth from the world’s globalist million and billionaires. His vision is none elected rulers unaccountable to the people.
***
The G20 has announced plans for digital currency and ID’s. Additionally, the G20 adopted a standard and boilerplate consensus declaration during the Summit on September 9 that called for a “durable peace” in Ukraine without explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is being viewed as a softening of the stance against Russia.
Economy –
Double bill these notes with CW2.
Lowe’s “shrink and loss” for FY 2023 are approaching one BILLION dollars. Other businesses are reportedly backing off the claims of ‘theft’ on their books, referring more to “shrink”. IMHO, this switch from theft to shrink reflects a social shifting requirement that recognizes that the vast majority of the organized theft is coming from the black community and that maintaining the theft identifier is also identifying the perps.
IN RELATED - The once-posh city of Beverly Hills, made popular by the “Beverly Hills 90210” TV series, is now dying – with barren retail spaces replacing luxury retailers. Stores that survived the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the economic downturn that followed are now facing a new threat: retail theft. Smash-and-grab gangs threaten businesses in Beverly Hills and Los Angeles County at large.
***
The $7.6 trillion of US government debt is currently paying very low interest rates from the years back before 2022 when rates were near 0% to 1%.
As that debt matures over the next 12 months, the US Treasury will rollover the debt and issue new debt at the current rates of 4.25% (10 year) to 5.47% (3 month yield). That will add about $300 billion per year in interest payments on the debt on top of what we currently pay. This will increase annual interest payments on the debt from the current level of $1 trillion per year to about $1.3 trillion per year.
OBSERVATION - I’ve lived all my cycles around the sun with the knowledge of govt debt. These recent numbers only point to an eventual crash of our economy and global credit standing. Under biden et al, this will only get worse. It is by design - you have to destroy in order to ‘build back better’ - the goal of the WEF.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The New Mexico governor has received a massive push back for her unconstitutional actions in restricting the 2d Amendment. County sheriffs are refusing to enforce the order. So massive that hell has apparently frozen over with CNN, CA rep Lieu and Hogg all stating that -
“There is no such thing as a state public health emergency except to the US Constitution”
As NM is a reciprocal carry state - recognizing CCWs from other states, the additional implications are on the increase.
There are calls for impeachment proceedings to begin and for her to step down.
The gov has painted herself into a corner. I don’t see her retracting the executive order on her own. Multiple lawsuits have been filed yesterday to overturn the decree - the most likely means of removal.
The attempt to forge a ‘health emergency’ as a vessel to cancel the 2d Amendment was so poorly designed that the radical gun grabbing left had to immediately reject it - lest the issue get turned against them too soon - just my humble opinion. I certainly hope the NM legislature pursues impeachment because it wasn’t only the 2d Amendment violation but her wholesale rejection of her oath of office - basically saying it didn’t mean anything to her and she would violate her oath at will.
There is a growing secondary effect in the impeachment and potentially a serious legal issue and that is one of conspiracy to deny rights. It will be important to see how this plays out as the ‘health emergency’ clause has been on of the proffered methods gun grabbers have been mulling for some time - pre shifting gun crime into the category of ‘health’ for a number of years now. And at the risk of being repetitive, one that the globalists via the WHO may attempt to use.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
CDC has been forced to backpedal on its latests proclamations. They issued a statement that reversed its previous assessment regarding the most recent COVID-19 variant.
Currently, the latest variant, referred to as BA.2.86, is combated by already-known antibodies, per research from multiple labs examined by the CDC. The announcement was issued Friday.
Initially, the CDC released a risk assessment that warned the variant could be “more capable of causing infection in people who have previously had COVID-19 or who have received COVID-19 vaccines.” As of Friday morning, cases with the variant were found in Colorado, Delaware, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.
“CDC and other experts are reassured by these research findings that support the effectiveness of this type of immunity against this variant,” its latest statement read. “Additionally, based on CDC’s experience with past SARS-CoV-2 variants, people will likely have protection against severe disease mediated by both cellular and antibody immunity.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/antibodies-latest-coronavirus-variant-cdc
OBSERVATION - Significant in that they have been forced to acknowledge what has been generally known - although forced to the sidelines because it didn’t follow the narrative - that those jabbed are more susceptible than those with natural immunity. The CDC initially tried to equate the two.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Only movement concerning the federal CR coming due the end of this month is the maneuvering of the parties to deflect the blame onto each other. Govt shut down is coming as an extension to kick the can down the road is full of crap that neither side will agree to with the votes to pass.
Increasing heat on the Republicans to get off their duffs and begin impeachment proceedings against biden and his henchmen. Don’t get your hopes up folks.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In an act being considered disrespectful towards veterans and survivors of 9/11, biden is scheduled to be in Alaska for some ‘memorial’ while first lady Jill Biden will remain in Washington, D.C. Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff will visit New York City to participate in a commemoration ceremony at the 9/11 Memorial and Museum. Biden will be the first president, since the 9/11 attacks, “Who did not go to a site, or at least the White House, to acknowledge the horrible incident that happened on 9/11/01.
OBSERVATION - Tells a lot about biden’s priorities, following walking out on a congressional medal of honor winner.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal aliens are traveling to Canada and attempting to cross into northern border states like New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York. The number of apprehensions in the Swanton sector over the last 11 months has surpassed the last 10 years combined.
OBSERVATION - The northern border has long been considered far more secure because Canada is far less tolerant of illegals than Mexico and is much farther away from the migration lines passing through Mexico that only a few have the resources to go the Canada route.
***
Nearly a million legal immigrants became American citizens last year, the third-highest number in history. One angle missing from the news coverage: Every single one of those immigrants was required, as a precondition of citizenship, to get a Covid booster.
OBSERVATION - File also under wuhan above. Note that now over 9 million illegals have penetrated this county - the vast majority completely unimmunized and carrying a plethora of diseases. Now the children of those illegals (who are illegal themselves) are attending our schools, without basic vaccination. Over 20,000 in the case of NYC schools.
Now don’t mark me as favorable towards the jab as well as todays slurry of vaccines (many may contribute to autism and other ailments), but now with basic diseases being reintroduced into the country, such insertion into the country is bound to cause serious health concerns for the rest of the nation.
North/South Korea –
Observers noting that NK’s parade of a couple days ago featured farm equipment pulling military trailers and that various civilian vehicles have been converted for military use.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia’s movement of short range nuclear capable missiles into Belarus could be a build up of potential use, though sources in Ukraine indicate that this is a build up for Russians to attack the electrical infrastructure as they did last winter.
Logistics –
There are reports that Russian artillery units are deploying closer to the front lines in an effort to extend the life of their gun barrels. Less powder is required to fire the projectiles, reducing somewhat the wear on the gun tubes. Russia continues to suffer from the lack of replacement barrels, creating attrition beyond that from destruction/damage from Ukraine strikes. Russia lacks the materials to make replacement barrels capable of sustaining the high rates of fire necessary for combat, producing substandard barrels that quick wear out and fail.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures have cooled to the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine continues to make small advances in its various fronts.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 of 33 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Falling debris started some fires in Kyiv.
Russian Territory –
The building of the former district military committee is on fire in Yaroslav, Russia.
NOTE - There are anti-war elements operating within Russia causing numerous fires across the country. Sometimes hard to separate those that are caused from those that are accidental.
Partisan Resistance ——
There is a lot of partisan activity that often doesn’t get reported.
Ukrainian partisans carry out a car bomb against Russian soldiers guarding sham election facilities in Kherson.
OUTLOOK –
See link for a good analysis of how Ukraine’s intelligence collection and distribution efforts are turning the war in their favor - keeping their actions and responses well within Russia’s OODA loop.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htintel/articles/20230910.aspx
Some analysts are sounding the warning that Ukraine is running out of time for its offensive before winter rains hit. In part they are correct, but currently the penetration of the defensive lines in the Robotnye area on the Tokmok axis may soon bear fruit and permit a true breakout that can change matters quickly. Russia is reportedly moving a many men and material into the sector as possible to stop Ukraine, but with Ukrainian drone superiority, their convoys headed to the front are getting hammered.
The movement of Russian artillery forward to extend the life of gun barrels will have the negative effect of exposing them to more drone directed counter battery fire. Most Ukraine artillery outranges Russian systems still in the game, making Russian counter battery fire even less effective and Ukraine counter battery more effective. Looking at the losses, Russian is losing multiple times more artillery than tanks. Similar goes for Russian ADA assets. Russia is losing that advantage.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania announced it has found the wreckage of another Russian drone on its territory, right next to the Ukrainian Danube river ports in Reni and Izmail. Romania summonsed the Russian Ambassador to protest Russian drones striking Romanian territory.
OBSERVATION - On a diplomatic scale, this is gone much higher. Romania has now officially recognized Russian incursion onto Romanian territory in what some could consider to be approaching an act of war. There is a growing push for Romania to establish an air defense exclusion zone that in part would cover Ukraine (and the ports being targeted by Russia).
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Potential for renewed conflict between these two nations has grown significantly.
The Armenian Army is moving toward the border with Azerbaijan. This reportedly is in response to the Azeri Army is conducting large military exercises and the Armenians claim it could be a cover for planned military aggression.
This is activating other players in the region.
Iran’s President , in a call to Armenia , has said any change in the border region is a “red line” for Iran. Iran has reportedly begun to deploy forces to its border region with Azerbaijan.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry staked its claim -
“If Iran takes action against Azerbaijan, the Turkish Army will be quick to respond”
Russia is largely silent.
OBSERVATION - Azerbaijan mobilization of its military along the borders with Armenia, is showing similar indicators to those noted just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With the potential of multiple other players getting involved in the action, this could break out into a significant regional war - especially between Turkey and Iran. Given Israeli material support to the Azeri’s, Iran’s wrath may also be directed towards them as well. This could also posit Turkey against any Russian forces attempting to aid in the defense of Armenia. The amount of such support is likely to be small given Ukraine war commitments, but the conflict could spread to other theaters such as the Black Sea.
It's insane but seems to be true. It's like we're all living in a bad movie that could turn into a horror flick.
Never Forget -
Globalism / Great Reset –
Monitoring a group called the “EIS Council” (Electric Industry Security Council) produces the world’s largest extreme hazard resilience exercises to developing innovative Black Sky technologies, EIS Council cultivates visionary global resilience initiatives and guides and supports restoration planning and training worldwide.
There are waves in the intewebs concerning their ‘Black sky” scenario wargaming as a possible parallel to the wuhan scenarios that preceded the plandemic.
So far my look has indicated that this group doesn’t appear to be a WEF globalist organization, but one of the private sector to preserve the global supply chain network. I could use some researchers to dig a little deeper to see if the concerns raised are valid.
Economy –
The United Autoworkers are preparing for a strike all three automakers that could begin as early as Sept. 15 after the latest offers from U.S. automakers were dismissed out of hand by the UAW’s radical president, Shawn Fain. He is demanding a 46% pay raise among other concessions.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry is hurting from a bad economy (interest rates) as well as shooting themselves in the foot over ESG and electric vehicle boondoggles. A strike would be bad, but conceding to the UAW demands could be even worse. All this stacked on the impending crest of a recession is not good news for any sector of the economy as the impacts of a strike would ripple quickly into the supply sector and retail sales.
***
Joe Biden promised during his basement campaign for the presidency that he was going to “end fossil fuel”:
Biden denied the donor’s association to the fossil fuel industry before calling the young woman “kiddo” and taking her hand. He said, “I want you to look at my eyes. I guarantee you. I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”
OBSERVATION - Biden cancelled drilling leases in Alaska as well as across much of the rest of the country so far. Foreign sources of oil have been circling like vultures ever since.
IN RELATED - The rise in oil prices and parallel rises in gas/diesel prices is beginning to hit the overall inflation rate in a way the Fed’s push to raise the prime rate is unable to slow. The inflation combined with the crushing interest rates could create a serious accelerator to a recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
New Mexican citizens rose up in peaceful protest against the governor’s ban on any kind of carry in Albuquerque . Hundreds show up in open defiance of the New Mexico Governor’s order banning open and concealed carry of firearms there as a one-month “emergency.” Police did not intervene or enforce the order. Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman made clear Saturday he will not be enforcing New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s (D) 30-day ban on concealed carry.
The Grisham continued resolute and doubling down on her tyrannical edict. Calls for impeachment have grown. GOA has filed suit against the order.
OBSERVATION - Impeachment is unlikely and she is hoping the 30 day limitation will mitigate any court orders in part due to expiring before any serious decision can be reached. Leftist gun grabbers still treating the decree like kryptonite - as gun rights are one of the old ‘third rail’ issues still alive in politics. Law enforcement is refusing to enforce the order, so a standoff is underway. I don’t think she will attempt to use State police to enforce the order - such would only expand the defiance and resistance and make her political life even more tenuous by increasing both the potential of impeachment as well as numerous violations of New Mexican and Federal laws.
NOTE - I still see the gun grabbing leftists still planning to use the ‘health emergency’ angle to cancel 2d Amendment rights - but her actions were premature and preempted planning by the left for a later and bigger effort.
***
Increasing reports of ethnic fights breaking out in illegal housing facilities as predominantly military age male of different races are squaring off against others for local ‘control’ of facilities. Serious race wars could be on the cusp of breaking out.
Terrorism -
Never Forget. . . . . . .
BTW - the leaders of the attack still haven’t been put to death and biden’s regime is looking at some sort of alternative.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden’s press conference in Vietnam was nothing less than a dumpster fire. Biden get got cut off by Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre from speaking mid-sentence and dismissed from stage as he struggled to form sentences at his press conference:
Also, biden mumbled through a speech in Vietnam on Sunday. Reading the entire speech while looking down at his paper but still managed to confuse his words. When he was finished he walked away from the podium. He forgot where he was. Then he stopped and looked completely lost. He had no idea what he was doing.
OBSERVATION - It continues to amaze some observers on the right that his handlers are permitting such open and undeniable episodes of dementia and frailty at this stage of his term. Polls are showing him tanking across the board and especially in critical demographics such as blacks and independents. On the extreme, biden is sucking so bad that the vote stealing of 2020 would be incapable of reelecting him. And so far the left’s attempts to shut him down via the legal system has only fueled Trumps popularity and undercut biden’s numbers further.
This has continued the thought that the left is trying to maneuver him to drop out of 2024 - especially when being juxtaposed against a highly vigorous Trump - and desiring to place someone more competitive against him. Frankly, I’m amazed that they’ve been able to keep him duct taped together this long. The next question is just who will they try to replace him with. They already recognize harris as a major train wreck, Newscum has kalifornia burning around his neck and the leftists in control of the democrat party definitely don’t want a Kennedy running.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
TEMU app software has the full array of characteristics of the most aggressive forms of malware/spyware. The app has hidden functions that allow for extensive data exfiltration unbeknown to users, potentially giving bad actors full access to almost all data on customers’ mobile devices. It is evident that great efforts were taken to intentionally hide the malicious intent and intrusiveness of the software. We engaged numerous independent data security experts to decompile and analyze TEMU app’s code, integrated with experts of our own staff, and analysts who have written independently in the public domain. Contributing to the danger of mass data exfiltration is the fast uptake rate of the TEMU app: over 100 million app downloads in the last 9 months, all in U.S. and Europe. TEMU is not offered in China. The TEMU app development team includes 100 engineers who built the Pinduoduo app, which earned a suspension from the Google Play Store. Pinduoduo app got reinstated by removing the ‘bad parts’, some of which were identically utilized as components of the TEMU app, strongly indicating malicious intent.
We strongly suspect that TEMU is already, or intends to, illegally sell stolen data from Western country customers to sustain a business model that is otherwise doomed for failure. Cheap China shopping apps have previously proven that the business model is simply not sustainably profitable.
OBSERVATION - My twitter and fakebook feeds are getting swamped by TEMU ads. Remember the adage - if it seems to good to be real, it probably isn’t real. And being sourced from China is another red flag.
Illegal Immigration –
New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced that because of the huge influx of asylum seekers into the city and the lack of help from Albany and Washington, he’s been forced to ask for a 5% reduction in spending from all city departments. And if no help is forthcoming, he says he’ll have to ask for another 5% reduction in January and another 5% next March.
OBSERVATION - NYC budgets under democrats contain tons of ‘fat’ to keep the unions and other cronies happy. This will not make them happy and you can bet that they will protect their honey pots by taking the money out of critical areas that directly affect New Yorkers while at the same time some how blaming republicans for their woes.
**
See CW2 above concerning ethnic / racial conflicts breaking out in illegal housing facilities.
China –
Biden said yesterday that China’s real estate crisis and high youth unemployment will take priority and lower China’s chances of invading Taiwan. Biden’s statement may be wishful thinking. China’s economic situation may increase the chances of a Taiwan invasion, as Beijing could rally its citizens behind a war effort and distract from the country’s problems. (FO)
North/South Korea –
N. Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s special train appears to have departed, likely headed to Vladivostok for a meeting with putin regarding supplying support for the Ukraine war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
More on the deployment of “Iskander” launchers. Reports Russia has reportedly deployed 46 launchers of the “Iskander” missile complex along the border with Ukraine, (not limited to Belarus)- Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky. Each TEL can carry two missiles so a full volley would be 92 missiles. Again, indicators that they are most likely to be used in the conventual warhead mode - likely against Ukraine electrical infrastructure as winter approaches, but the nuclear tooth is still a valid play.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumors growing of a massive military call-up in the range of 400,000 - 700,000 mostly non-Muscovites.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine continues to make small advances in its various fronts. Details continue to be relatively foggy.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 12 of 12 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight
Ukrainian Defense Forces have reportedly partially liberated Opytne village near Donetsk, - deputy Defense minister. This places Ukrainian forces on the door step of the airport and within 10 Km of the Russian occupied city of Donetsk.
Ukrainian Military intelligence claims returning control over 2 drilling platform in the Black Sea, occupied by Russia since 2015: Petro Hodovalets and Tavrida. Also claimed seizing ammunition and Neva radar, damaging Su-30 jet during battle for platforms. These platforms are about 90 Km east of Snake Island.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Ukrainian Defense Forces have partial success towards Novomayorske, likely due in part to the lateral shifting of forces to the Tokmak sector to the west.
Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian defense forces have destroyed 6 Russian boats in Kherson region.
Kupiansk Front -
Russia’s “offensive” in this region has disintegrated into small incursions by Russian forces that normally get the snot beat out of them as they enter the well honed Ukrainian defenses.
OUTLOOK –
Current ‘fog of war’ conditions continue but info breaking through suggests that Russian forces are increasingly strained not only the main Ukraine assault axes but in other sectors as well.
Both sides have slowed their strategic missile / drone attacks of late. Russian almost exclusively relying on Shahed drones of late. This suggests that both are conserving their deep systems for a later surge.
I continue to see slow but steady advances by Ukraine forces with an increasing potential for a full fledged breakout in the Tokmok axis.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Thing continue to heat up. Russian sources claimed that the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh has not conducted personnel rotations due to increasing tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Russian sources also claimed that the Russian peacekeeping contingent is on “full alert” because of the potential escalation between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. Russian sources will likely increasingly discuss the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh if hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensify, which may impact their coverage of the war in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russia’s support of Armenia has been what has largely deterred Azerbaijan over the past years. It is clear that Azerbaijan recognizes Russian weakness as they increased their activity correspondingly to the Ukraine war. However, engaging Russian troops may trigger use of strategic weapons systems not needed currently for Ukraine.
Misc of Note –
Eyes are still on hurricane Lee. From midweek on, the exact track of Lee will determine the scope of direct and indirect impacts in the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada. The slow forward speed of Lee for a time this week may cause the system to lose some wind intensity as cool water from the depths is churned to the surface. However, Lee will remain a powerful and dangerous hurricane.
NYC, Boston and the rest for the Northeast are not out of the woods yet.
Black Swans
High degree of weather variability is increasing for the northern hemisphere this winter as a new Polar Vortex spins up and is about to collide with a growing El Nino cycle. This could result in the increased likelihood of colder winters in the US, Canada, and Europe. Additionally, there’s an anticipated above-average snowfall across the eastern US and Europe.
This combination is going to make intermediate to long term forecasting a dice roll. The following link explains it better -
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