A lot of stuff to weed through and may have missed some key points, but potentially will circle back and catch them later this week if that is the case.
For all to note - September is Preparedness month - and with all the chaos in the country and world we are just one major event from things going sideways fast. Don’t procrastinate - get prepped now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The head of the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) stated just a few days ago that “central banks will have absolute control over all money (sic)”. This is in how each dollar (or whatever unit) is used, what people are allowed to buy, and what people are prohibited to buy.
OBSERVATION - Global digital currency. They will control what you buy.
**
The Department of Defense has awarded a contract to a New York-based artificial intelligence company Accrete AI to deploy software that can “predict” and counteract “disinformation” on social media platforms in real time.
OBSERVATION - First and foremost, the DoD has no business playing this kind of game. Second, as we’ve all learned over the past few years, ‘disinformation’ is that truth which undercuts the govt narrative. Most aggressively displayed during the past wuhan plandemic, where real science was censored as ‘misinformation’ and the country is finding out that the misinformation came from govt sources.
Economy –
In August, the unemployment rate jumped 0.3 points, from 3.5% 3.8%, as the number of long-term unemployed increased, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
The nation’s unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage point to 3.8% in August, as the number of unemployed persons increased by 514,000 to 6.4 million.
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 294,000 to 2.9 million in August, offsetting a decrease of 280,000 in July.
The rise in the unemployment rate, coupled an increase in job losers, highlights ongoing challenges in the economy. Meanwhile, the number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons remained unchanged.
OBSERVATION - Concerning numbers raising concerns for a more severe recession in the offing.
**
Personal Consumption Expenditures price (PCE) index – the Fed’s favorite inflation measure – rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, and the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released before the Fed’s September meeting. This suggests that the Fed will likely continue to increase the prime rate again.
**
Oil prices jumped about 2% on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a fresh extension to their voluntary supply cuts, stretching a combined 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd) reduction for another three months through December.
OBSERVATION - One thing that may mitigate costs is the end of the summer tourist/vacation season and an accompanying decrease in demand here. However this could cycle back to OPEC+ with further cuts to sustain higher prices per barrel.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
A Florida-based Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Industry Operations inspector (IOI) seized a federal firearms licensee’s (FFL) completed ATF Form 4473s and bound book to take off-site to make copies violating federal law. The IOI would return the documents a week later.
Last week, Kiloton Tactical joined a coalition of FFLs led by Eric Blandford of the Iraqveteran8888 YouTube channel and vowed to sue the ATF over the Biden Administration’s zero-tolerance policy for FFLs. The lawsuit has now been filed with the illegal actions of the IOI front and center in the complaint.
According to 18 U.S.C. 923(g)(1)(A), FFLs must maintain records such as a bound book and copies of the ATF Form 4473, which Kiloton Tactical did maintain. During an inspection, an IOI is able to look over records for policy violations but does not have the authority to inspect the documents off-site. This action is expressly prohibited by 27 CFR § 478.23(cd).
The statute reads:
“The inspections and examinations provided by this section do not authorize an ATF officer to seize any records or documents other than those records or documents constituting material evidence of a violation of law. If an ATF officer seizes such records or documents, copies shall be provided to the licensee within a reasonable time.”
At the time of the seizure, no wrongdoing was suspected. The IOI insisted he was within his legal rights to remove the documents from the store. The IOI’s deviation put him at odds with federal law.
The ATF’s IOI handbook doubles down on forbidding an IOI from removing records from a business. The ATF has been slow to release the IOI handbook to the public, and when they finally did, the document was heavily redacted. AmmoLand News acquired an unredacted copy of the guide from our sources inside the ATF. Every IOI is responsible for knowing the policies laid out in the handbook, but the ATF employee ignored page 10 of the handbook, which expressly prohibits IOIs from making any seizures.
OBSERVATION -
Govt working its plan by nibbling the edges where they can get away with it over the period. They will eventually lose in court, but in the interim spread fear in the gun dealerships over losses of their FFLs and lively hood. Govt gains access to records to illegally compile gun ownership listings of who owns what and where, so that when they hit phase two, civilians will be the next target.
**
Note while these instances occurred outside the US, it is going to hit here in spades.
Netanyahu announced the deportation of hundreds of Eritrean migrants after they broke out in rival groups and openly fought in Tel Aviv over the weekend. Similar factional fighting broke out in Calgary Canada as upwards of 150 Eritrean migrants faced off with clubs from pipes and wood in what media called a fight to the death.
OBSERVATION - Apparently these actions corresponded to some sort of political remembrance day ink Eritrea. It bodes ill for the rest of the world swamped with migrants pouring out of the middle east and Africa. And a situation very dangerous here in the US where under biden over 8 million illegals have poured into the country from many sectors. This influx has already created an substantial crime wave by these illegals and increased tensions between the formerly favored minority blacks in urban centers as well as surrounding predominantly white suburbs (noted protests in predominantly ‘red’ Staten Island overnight). Not only has the potential for inter-ethnic fighting from these illegals risen sky high, locally turning zones into ‘do not enter’ areas as found in Europe and growing mass violence against Americans will grow. They see what is happening in the world and the US and it won’t take long for them to take over the massive looting of stores from the local minority syndicates - creating more friction.
Quite simply, this massive turbulence is a desired goal of the powers that be as it will give them the ‘justification’ necessary for a national crackdown and suspension of Constitutional rights. We are sitting on a powder keg and the govt is playing with fire as the 2024 election approaches.
**
BLM was back out in force and marching over Ta’Kiya Young, who tried to drive over a police officer when confronted for shoplifting. Protests were relatively peaceful over the weekend.
OBSERVATION - Body cam footage pretty well took the wind out of the sales showing the car she was driving being accelerated towards the police officer. What is hurting them as well is the ‘national’ leadership scandal of taking all the funds raised and spending it on themselves.
**
Over 60 Antifa Militants were indicted under RICO For Atlanta ‘Cop City’ protests and attacks on Police Officers. This has sent shockwaves of concern through the Antifa community given the free ticket to violence they’ve enjoyed over the years.
OBSERVATION - This could potentially increase the probability of future violent protests in the Atlanta area.
Terrorism -
75,000 individuals on terror lists intercepted at the border last year. How many got through?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Local media reports say the amphibious group led by the USS America will take part in a joint exercise with South Korean forces. biggest show of strength near eastern China in 10 years
OBSERVATION - Currently only one carrier battle group is deployed - the USS Ford in the Med Sea near Turkey. All others are in port, leaving most of the major deployment consisting of amphibious groups like the USS America task force.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
If you’ve been missing the increasing squeal of joy by the covidians concerning the new wuhan variant, wake up. Increasing numbers of schools and businesses going back to failed mask mandates while other leftists are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of more lock/shut downs. What is known, and not surprising according to medical understanding, is this new variant is easily spread. That is how these critter evolve. The parallel fact is that they become far less lethal with this evolution. Common sense - the critter wants to live and multiply and it can’t do that if it is killing off its hosts.
Jill Biden has tested positive for COVID-19. Fully vac’d with two shots and two boosters that did nothing. Whoopee was also reported down with it as her cohorts on the View gleefully proclaimed that Covid is ‘back’.
OBSERVATION - With this are relatively baseless claims of increased ‘death’ as with the previous episode the actuals causes of death were not from the virus. The CDC is trying to dilute observations that the jabbed have had a higher inflection rate from this new strain than unjabbed, but saying equal infection rates. Bottom line is the jab once again proves to be worthless and the new ‘booster’ shot is destined to be the same - most likely more dangerous from its side effects than an infection by the wuhan bug.
Also, NOTE - Resistance to reinstated mandates is growing and could potentially flare up into massive civil disobedience
POLITICAL FRONT –
The train wreck of a potential govt shutdown on Oct 1 is looming large and both sides are establishing finger pointing positions. The most aggressive stance is coming from democrats who will try to pin any shut down on Freedom Caucus demands for a Continuing Resolution (CR) as “hostage taking. Democrats gain support for this from RINO house republicans.
**
More J6 convictions displaying the two tiered justice tyranny our country has devolved into.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In a total disgrace to the honored veteran, Biden abruptly walked out of Medal of Honor Ceremony before the closing benediction.
Illegal Immigration –
SEE CW2 above for come observations on illegals and coming problems.
***
The town of Casper, Wyoming has been inundated with homeless people, with some estimates coming in at 200.
The town is full of abandoned structures, but one that has been hit particularly hard is the Econo Lodge, which was closed in November 2022 due to flooding. Squatters moved in and caused millions of dollars in damage to the already dilapidated building, including leaving 500 pounds of human waste behind. Vagrants have trashed abandoned structures, left feces in the streets, and generally created an atmosphere that has drawn condemnation from residents and municipal officials alike.
OBSERVATION -
Sadly - its happening in a ‘small town’ and Wyoming is frozen in its response. Note - only 200 needed to cause problems.
**
WaPo reports illegal crossings shot up again in August, w/ Border Patrol apprehending 177,000 migrants, including the highest number of families ever recorded. Illegal crossings have now risen 30% two months in a row,
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Kremlin is silent concerning a Chinese map claiming part of Russia’s territory as its own.
NOTE - Russia will have to pay the piper for China’s support and any ‘credit’ extended by China always comes with a big tab.
Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, according to the Kremlin. MbS expressed “gratitude” for Russia’s consistent support for Riyadh’s application to join BRICS [through Riyadh hasn’t responded to the invitation yet]. The two also spoke about their cooperation on OPEC [Riyadh recently announce new voluntary cuts to maintain oil prices]. The two said they were satisfied with the pace of economic relations between the two in a number of fields, and were considering deeper collaboration
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Kremlin announced Friday it was shifting the RS-28 Sarmat, a nuclear-capable missile unofficially called the “Satan II,” to combat readiness mode.
Logistics –
The Russian Federation removed S-300B (400?) air defense systems from the Kuril Islands. They could be transferred closer to Ukraine”, - Kyodo News
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is recruiting migrants from Central Asia for the war in Ukraine, British intelligence reports. Internet ads were seen in Armenia and Kazakhstan offering $5,140 in starting cash and wages starting at $1,973. Recruitment efforts aimed at ethnic Russians are taking place in the northern Qostanay region of Kazakhstan. At least since May 2023, Russia has been recruiting migrants from Central Asia to fight in Ukraine, promising them fast citizenship and a salary of up to $4,160.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Highs in the 80’s and dry.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Well, a little more than a 24 hour - more like a labor day weekend summary.
Russian forces continued to lose ground in the south and east Ukraine. The Robotdyn breakthrough is widening and the Russian defensive line could collapse.
Ukraine appears to have obtained a degree of drone air superiority in the south and over western Crimea. In addition to drone strikes in Crimea, tactical level drones have dramatically enhanced the Ukraine ability to locate and intercept Russian forces attempting to move troops and ammo to the beleaguered front lines.
Tokmak Axis -.
At Verbove Russian forces are facing potential flanking by Ukraine who’ve penetrated the northern end of trenches behind the dragon’s teeth line. The Ukraine attack is being lead by basic infantry forces and the trend is for them. Success in the next few days could leave the Russian positions untenable and force another retreat - an act that would permit Ukraine armor to push through the anti armor band and further south. Ukraine forces on the western flank of the Robotdyn salient continued to widen the penetration and threaten the direct route to Tokmak. Russia has reportedly moved elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault division from eastern Ukraine to the sector to try to stop the penetration.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Russia’s thinning of the defensive lines in order to shift forces to the Tokmok sector has weakened this axis and Ukraine forces are reportedly building for renewed attacks to exploit the weaknesses.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukrainian forces are pushing a near breakthrough south of Bakhmut.
Kherson Axis -
No significant developments as Ukraine slowly builds forces on the east bank and pushes outward.
Kupiansk Front -
Russian attempt to mount an offensive to freeze Ukrainian forces from the fight to the south has pretty well disintegrated into small unit attacks easily turned back.
OUTLOOK –
The battle around Verbove is developing into the decisive battle of the Ukraine offensive. Infantry forces slipped through the heavily mined and fortified second defensive belt and are pressing the war to attain the high ground north of the city. So far they have been succeeding and according to Russian sources, the troops there are hard pressed to stop them.
Nasty infantry assaults on trench works is a slow and costly process. Ukraine is succeeding because they have achieved artillery parity and in some instances superiority over Russia following months of targeting Russian systems and ammo supply sites / logistic routes. Ukraine can target section os the trenches with artillery, quickly followed up by infantry assaults while any artillery reply by Russia is minimal and opens those units up to the deadly and quick Ukrainian counter battery fire.
Supporting the effort is the much less restricted use of Ukraine drones to spot and target resupply / reinforcement efforts by Russia. Russia has currently lost most of its ability to counter Ukraine drones on the Tokmok front and is paying for it heavily.
As noted above, Ukraine is gaining the upper hand and could force the flank of Russian forces which would open the second defensive line here wide open.
Meanwhile, the 76th GAAD mention shows just how desperate Russia is. It has no operational reserves and had to pull elements of this air assault division from the eastern front. OSINT elements see the 76th as Russia’s currently most capable unit - not saying much considering the state the rest of the army is in. Prior to the war, the 76th was one of the elite units. Now with a year and half of fighting, though in name still an elite, its numbers have been substantially cut and replacements far less highly trained. It is currently feeling the effects of being drawn into the tar baby Ukraine is creating south and west of Robotdyn, pulling Russian forces into a situation where Ukraine can chew them up via an economy of force effort supported by now at least locally superior artillery and drone capabilities.
Speaking of drones, Ukraine’s SEAD operations have opened up western Crimea to drones. It has also brought back the Turkish Bayktars into prominence.
Europe / NATO General –
In spite of Romanian denials, parts of a Russian drone found in Romania, close to village Plaurul, Ceatalchioi, Tulcea county, in the Danube Delta following an attack a few days ago.
OBSERVATION - The denials may have been an attempt to deescalate the situation before the pubic got riled up. Such a carry over of the Ukraine war into Romania could trigger a NATO Article 5 response.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenia is providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine for the first time since the Russian invasion of the country. Armenia is re-evaluating its relationship with Russia as Azeri forces impose tighter blockades of the Nagoro-Karambash region and Russia fails to come to its aid.
Of course, we're the villains for noticing...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Leaders will discuss a proposal for “global baseline” cryptocurrency standards at this weekend’s Group of 20 (G20) summit in India, according to a Reuters government source.
OBSERVATION - While I’m not a crypto guy - even more fiat than the dollar IMHO, it does serve as a means of commerce and payment that bypasses the traditional financial gatekeepers and govt taxation. This is an effort believed to seek controlling crypto exchanges the will force transactions into the open, providing a means to control transactions. This is a step towards eliminating competition with the eventual CBDC that will globally come into play.
Economy –
September may be the month of reckoning for the US economy as the end of the FY approaches and any papering over of the woes businesses have been experiencing comes off. A number of analysts indicate that small to medium businesses are most at risk of a major recession, not uncommon, but this time around the deck is being stacked by the govt in support of the big companies -the Walmart, etc., like they were doing the plandemic shutdowns. This this has the potential to cause even deeper economic upheaval incorporated into a recession.
Tie this in with an increasing probability of a govt shut down and things could get interesting very fast. How soon will those receiving EBT welfare monies be affected? I don’t know if they are on the one month post payment plan, like SS payments - being paid in September for August - thus delaying chaos for a month. But I expect that there will be a strong effort to keep the welfare class fat and happy while the rest of the nation struggles.
***
As of July, Americans are saving less – and more than half are living paycheck-to-paycheck – new reports reveal.
“61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets,” CNBC reported on Thursday, citing a new Lending Club study on July 2023 consumer trends.
Also on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “Personal Income and Outlays” report for July, revealing that Americans’ average personal savings rate fell from 4.3% in June to 3.5% in July.
July’s 3.5% savings rate is a mere quarter of its 13.4% level when former Pres. Donald Trump left office and more than twice the 7.2% savings rate recorded during Trump’s first full month in the White House.
OBSERVATION - Precarious situation with a recession looming in on the horizon.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
I noted under Economy above the potential of a govt shutdown to shutdown EBT cards and money. Does anyone know if the payments are shifted by one month (Sept payments for Aug?) Could be a stimulus for increased protesting and looting of stores if the cards are not reloaded with money in a timely manner.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
SMH, continued loony toons push to reinstate masks and mandates for an even greater nothing burger wuhan variant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Parallel note that this can also fall under CW2 info.
A group of voters in Colorado filed a lawsuit Wednesday seeking to keep former President Donald Trump off the ballot in the state, arguing he is disqualified from holding public office under a rarely used provision of the 14th Amendment.
The suit was filed in state court in Denver by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) on behalf of six Republican and unaffiliated voters who are challenging Trump’s listing as a candidate on the 2024 Republican presidential primary ballot and any future ballot.
OBSERVATION - Clearly a pattern is developing. Four (with a potential pending 5th ) indictments of Trump for a wide range of alleged illegalities has only boosted his ratings, and not tanked his run for presidency. leftists and never trumpers are going for the next level -barring him from the ballot via 14th amendment arguments. Serious scent of desperation from the left / deep state is accompanying these lawsuits. This makes Tucker Carlson’s concerns over an assassination attempt even more possible. The left is at a any means necessary juncture and are losing the initiative - possibly triggering the third level attack - physical.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Covering up for biden’s gaffs only gets worse. When questioned about biden walking away from the Medal of Honor recipient the WH press spox KJP reaffirms the fact that the walkout was ‘On Purpose.’
KJP: “That was done on purpose. That was done very purposefully.”
OBSERVATION - How can she sleep at night with all the manufactured lies she spews daily.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Continued rumors that a covert govt induced cyber attack on our banking system is in the works as a means to forcibly transfer all transactions to CBDC and eliminate physical cash. Levels of conspiracy theory involved, but with the track record of such conspiracies coming true over the past few years, this cannot be ruled out. Especially when some of the chief sources of these ‘rumors’ are WEF officials and underlings.
Illegal Immigration –
Fed Judge Ezra ruled on Wednesday in favor of the DOJ’s argument that Governor Abbott violated the federal Rivers and Harbors Act when he deployed the buoy barrier near Eagle Pass through Operation Lone Star without getting clearance from the Army Corps of Engineers. Governor Abbott contends that he has the constitutional right to secure the state’s border.
OBSERVATION - Interesting that they claimed failure to permit via USACOE for the barriers, and not dominion over border enforcement policies. Also, how can USACOE claim control over a river shared with Mexico. Expect appeals.
**
Meanwhile, Mayor Adams of NYC bemoaning the end of his dream sanctuary city—
“Let me tell you something New Yorkers. Never in my life have I ever had a problem that I did not see an ending to.
I don’t see an ending to this. I don’t see an ending to this.
This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.”
OBSERVATION - Cry me a river, go talk to the nut jobs in DC that are enabling the now 8 million plus disaster.
However, with that said, his problem is growing nation wide and reaching the point where all will be impacted in one way or another.
China –
Biden officials said Chinese nationals gained access to military bases and sensitive sites over 100 times since 2019, often posing as tourists and even using specialized diving equipment.
OBSERVATION - China knows that under biden, the US is becoming a paper tiger and that with the proper ‘excuse’ their penetration attempts will be written off as a tourist mistake. This cover has been working for a lot longer than 2019, but it seems, at least to the unnamed official(s) this activity has increased significantly.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia said that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is on schedule, but didn’t mention their transfer to the country.
“The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is being carried out according to the schedule that the Russian president spoke about. Now several stages of establishment of the relevant infrastructure or equipment of the relevant carriers have been completed there. We continue this work. [...] If the leadership considers it possible and desirable to provide details of what is happening, this will be done. As of today, I don’t have any additions or changes to what was previously said on this topic,” he said.
At the same time, Ryabkov said nothing about the transfer of TNW to Belarus and didn’t mention details on the timing of the tasks.
Kerch Bridge update –
Persistant reports of shutdowns of the bridge to traffic separate from Ukraine drone (sea and air) attacks. Some suspect that the bridge is still to weak for extended vehicle travel and usage. Others suggest periodic closures due to repair work.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures have cooled to the 70’s with chances of scattered showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive operations at Melitopol and Bakhmut frontline, have success west to Verbove and south to Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region. Russia launched another drone attack, the vast majority of which were shot down.
Tokmak Axis -.
At Verbove efforts continue to pivot the margins the Russian defenses on the northern side of the city.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine is gaining greater control of the terrain south of the city.
Russian Territory –
Several explosions were heard in Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Russian telegram reports that the Southern Military Command, overseeing the war in was hit. Other ‘official’ Russian sources say the drones missed the target.
OUTLOOK –
We are at the anniversary of the Kharkiv offensive that swept Russia out of the oblast and devastated as substantial portion of their army. This also triggered the Kherson offensive as Russia discovered it couldn’t sustain operations on both fronts and the Kherson forces were in danger of being isolated and destroyed in detail due to Ukraine cutting off bridges over the Dniper River. Current fight in southern Ukraine holds potential for a similar defeat of Russian forces and a quick armor thrust to the south.
Day to day activity will remain relatively constant. Ukraine efforts on the northern margin of Verbove continue to put stress on the longer term ability of Russian forces to hold their positions and when that falls, I expect a quick Ukraine armor thrust to exploit the opening. Ukraine’s drone game, both tactical and strategic, continues to set conditions for success on the front lines. I see increasing reports of Ukrainian drones discovering Russian reinforcement and logistical movements to the front lines, followed by a nasty round or Ukraine artillery including cluster munitions. In many cases the column is stopped by attack drones long enough to permit the artillery to finish the matter. Russia is struggling to regain at least tactical drone equality in the key regions of the front, but Ukraine continues to ID and target those Russian drone assets and air defense elements - with a high degree of success.
Clock is running on when the wet season returns. But typically those fall/winter storms don’t arrive for at least another month or two. Degraded mobility may be Russia’s only hope to put some breaks on the Ukrainian offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania confirms that Russian drone strikes occurred 800 meters from its borders
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that there was no sign Russia had launched a deliberate attack on Romania after possible UAV debris was found near its border with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Definitely a warning wrapped in nice words to Russia. But even an ‘accidental’ strike on NATO terrain is grounds for an Article 5 response and that seems to be the underlying warning to Russia. It will not tolerate for long ‘spillage’ of the fight into Romania. Worse case at this time for Russia would be a NATO air defense cover that may extend over Ukraine because that is the direction the Russian munitions are coming from in order to prevent more ‘spillage’.
Syria -
More anti-govt protests are breaking out in S. Syria.
Mexico -
Next year’s presidential elections will be between Morena (National Regeneration Movement) candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and Frente Amplio (Broad Front) candidate Xóchitl Galvéz. They will face off in the June 2024 presidential election. Sheinbaum was beating Galvéz by 10 points in recent polling data and is the favorite to win in June to carry on AMLO’s so-called Fourth Transformation of Mexico.
OBSERVATION - If current polls follow through to the election, then there will be very little change in Mexican/US relations and a strong probability of continued support to illegals transiting through the country.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
“Azerbaijan has massed forces along the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border with Armenia over the last few days,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told government officials while adding that “the military-political situation in our region has seriously worsened.”
Pashinyan said Azerbaijan is “demonstrating its intention to undertake a fresh miltary provocation against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.”
Azerbaijan derided Armenia’s statements as “yet another false political manipulation.”
OBSERVATION - Armenia is in trouble as much of the deterrent against future Azeri aggression has been based on Russia, and that giant sucking sound has been that support being shifted towards the war with Ukraine. Azeri have been blockading a key supply road to the highly disputed Nagorno-Karabakh for a year now and Azeri started incidents have recently been on the rise. Not sure if this will lead to another round of major fighting in the near future or just more tightening the screws on Armenian controlled portions of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The apparent abandonment by Russia is causing Armenia to seek stronger ties, especially military, with the US. The Armenian government said Wednesday that it will hold joint drills with US troops from September 11 to 20.
Russia is not happy with the shift in attention.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
France is reportedly negotiating for removal of its forces from Niger.