Threat Matrix

Running a little behind. Trying to get preliminary yard work done now that the glacier has receded. Seeing a lot of continued interweaving of national and international news falling in to the WEF stated goals. The trends I’m seeing are not good and with the growing political tsunami of the 2024 elections enroute my refocus on preparations are being rechecked.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Argentina will start to pay for Chinese imports in yuan rather than dollars, the government announced Wednesday, a measure that aims to relieve the country’s dwindling dollar reserves.
In April, it aims to pay around $1 billion of Chinese imports in yuan instead of dollars and thereafter around $790 million of monthly imports will be paid in yuan, a government statement said.

OBSERVATION - Part of China’s ongoing effort to strip the dollar of its global reserve status, and many economists are beginning to raise red flags (no pun intended) over it. The GGR absolutely NEEDS the US dollar’s position as reserve currency in order for it to do its global financial reset.

Economy –

Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced for the period, rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.

OBSERVATION – There is a storm coming and the GDP is reflecting the ongoing slowing of the economy into a recession.

**
First Republic Bank’s stock price fell 50% Tuesday and continued to fall Wednesday after the bank announced a 41% drop in deposits in the first quarter of 2023.

OBSERVATION – Weakness here could cause another round of bank runs/failures.

**
The latest EPA proposal would mandate ‘carbon capture’ at power plants. A study by MIT showed that carbon capture raises the cost of electricity from 30% to 50% depending on the type of plant. Another study by Australia’s Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis however showed that prices could actually climb as high as 95% to 175%. A Stanford study found that carbon capture actually increases air pollution.

OBSERVATION – Failing to gain legislative support, biden is trying the end around with the EPA, once again, following tactics already struck down by the USSC. He doesn’t care how it happens or its consequences, biden et al want to kill all coal and gas plants in the country. About 63% of the nation’s power is generated by coal, shutting them down will drive much of the country back into the 1800’s.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden was caught again with crib notes telling him which reporters to call on with prescreened questions. The media is covering for him.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Director Steve Dettelbach avoided confirming Wednesday whether the agency would pursue prosecution against people who violated its new pistol brace rule accidentally.
The rule requires owners to register pistols with braces as “short barrel rifles” by redefining a weapon “designed or redesigned, made or remade, and intended to be fired from the shoulder” as a “rifle,” with a May 31 deadline. Republican Texas Rep. Troy Nehls said he viewed the rule as “a direct assault” on law-abiding Americans’ Second Amendment rights, asking Dettelbach what enforcement mechanism the ATF would use to fine or possibly sentence people to jail if they do not comply or aren’t aware of it, during the Wednesday House Judiciary Committee hearing on ATF oversight.

OBSERVATION – Clock is ticking and of course he won’t say anything – silence is a loud yes they will and as quickly as they can since the courts are cutting the ban off at the start.

**
Violence to silence is becoming normalized.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2023/04/27/violence-to-silence-is-becoming-normalized-n546537

OBSERVATION – Just posting a link here but a good read to catch the bigger picture of the development of leftist violence here in the US and parts of the rest of the world. As long as the biden regime condones leftist violence and leftist (and Soros bought) DA’s refuse to prosecute this will only get worse until the FAFO threshold is reached and the right pushes back. This pushback is exactly what the leftists want to justify a crackdown on all of us ‘domestic terrorists’, an action that may well trigger a shooting CW2.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Biden energy secretary Granholm if pushing to require a 100% electric vehicle fleet by 2030.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Angus King (I-ME) introduced the Supreme Court Code of Conduct Act, which would require the Supreme Court to adopt a code of ethics, designate an ethics official, and contract with federal agencies to handle ethics investigations. Murkowski said the Supreme Court must demonstrate independence and fairness in their decisions, and any cracks in public confidence could damage our democracy. (FO)

IN RELATED - Now there is a question about the professional work of one of the justices’ wives. U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts’s wife could face an ethics inquiry by the Department of Justice.
A former colleague of Jane Sullivan Roberts has formally asked the DOJ for an inquiry after claiming that the chief justice’s wife had been paid millions in commissions to place lawyers at firms — some of which have business before the Supreme Court. Jane Roberts is a high-end legal recruiter, Conservative Brief reports.
“In his letter last month, Kendal Price, a 66-year-old Boston lawyer, argued that the justices should be required to disclose more information about their spouses’ work. He did not cite specific Supreme Court decisions, but said he was worried that a financial relationship with law firms arguing before the court could affect justices’ impartiality or at least give the appearance of doing so,” the New York Times reported.

OBSERVATION – As I pointed out in earlier USSC post, the conservative justices have come under serious partisan attacks from MSM and politicians. This is another assault on the independence of the court. I will reiterate, I think the groundwork is being laid down for an eventual overthrow/take over of the court by leftists in govt (deep state). This would occur when SHTF and the govt declares martial law in order to crack down on patriots. Window opening – election 2024.

**
Carlson aftershocks continue. In his first public address since getting sacked, Carlson tweeted a 2:48 video that smashed viewership of even his former segments on Fox.

**
(Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday narrowly passed a bill to raise the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, defying President Joe Biden by attaching sweeping spending cuts for the next decade.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters the House bill is “dead on arrival.” He said the Republican legislation “only brings us dangerously closer” to an historic U.S. debt default that would shake markets and economies worldwide.

OBSERVATION – Ball is in the democrats court, and the game of chicken continues. The regime has started a full court press attack on the bill and are openly lying about it. At this stage, democrats appear to think they have the republicans over a barrel and that they can force a ‘clean’ hike. Right now I figure odds are that the ceiling will be hit this summer and govt shutdowns will ensue.

China –

Chinese President Xi Jinping explicitly recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, stating that mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is foundational to Ukrainian-Chinese relations in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr

OBSERVATION - This is a huge blow to Russia and their buddy – buddy with China. China has even included Crimea as part of Ukraine in other statements. Just like China views America as weak, they are coming quickly to the same conclusion regarding Russia. If hard push comes to shove, China will still nominally back Russia, but at the moment China is fixing on extracting a lot of out of Russia – territory and resources.

**
Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka canceled a high-level meeting with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, instead putting forward Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica, which Beijing refused. Ma was reportedly in Fiji to deliver an ultimatum to Prime Minister Rabuka that Fiji should reconsider its ties to Taiwan and its growing alignment with Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. (FO)

OBSERVATION – All is not happy with China’s expansion into the western Pacific Island regions. Threats like this may cause other island nations to reconsider their ‘friendship’ with China.

**
See Globalism / Great Reset above on the yuan being used instead of dollars for payments

**
(AP) — A Chinese coast guard ship blocked a Philippine patrol vessel steaming into a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, causing a frightening near-collision in the latest act of Beijing’s aggression in the strategic waterway.
The high seas face-off Sunday between the larger Chinese ship and the Philippine coast guard’s BRP Malapascua near Second Thomas Shoal was among the tense moments it and another Philippine vessel encountered in a weeklong sovereignty patrol in one of the world’s most hotly contested waterways.

The Philippine coast guard had invited a small group of journalists, including three from The Associated Press, to join the 1,670-kilometer (1,038-mile) patrol for the first time as part of a new Philippine strategy aimed at exposing China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea, where an estimated $5 trillion in global trade transits each year.

https://apnews.com/article/philippines-dispute-south-china-sea-patrol-27ee9778f7302938c5090644e3d153c2

OBSERVATION – China’s aggression is not limited to Taiwan, but is focused on the Philippines as well. This act is one of the reasons Philippines are drawing into a closer relationship with the US for military support in the region. You can bet that once China has dealt with its Taiwan problem, this region will be next.

Illegal Immigration –

On Wednesday, a whistleblower is set to testify before Congress with bombshell claims that the federal government has essentially become a “middleman” in a child trafficking ring along the southern border, an operation that is allegedly worth billions.

The hearing before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement will be titled “The Biden Border Crisis: Exploitation of Unaccompanied Alien Children.” The focus of the hearing will be the spike in the number of “unaccompanied children” (UACs) during the border crisis under Biden’s watch.

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics indicate that the number of UACs has risen from just 33,239 in fiscal year 2020 to over 146,000 in fiscal year 2021, and 152,000 in 2022. Currently, fiscal year 2023 has already seen over 70,000 UACs encounter border authorities.

OBSERVATION – this hearing was already held, and the implications are disgusting. Ever notice those arrested for human trafficking and child sexual exploitation tend to be predominantly democrat or the uber-rich RINOs? Part of the plan folks.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

**
Russian forces have constructed massive fortifications along large sections of the Donbas front, some stretching for 30km. The defensive fortifications appear to be rows of concrete “dragon’s teeth” barricades, wire, and trenches. The largest fortification collection lies along the approach to Crimea in the Zaporizhzhia region.

NOTE – I’ve noted these constructions in past posts. In order to be successful, Russia must have the counterattack forces available to stop any breach and the whole length must be defended in some way. This is Ukraine’s home field and even with these defenses, it will continue to have the advantage.

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia does not intend to follow the path of nuclear escalation, but advises against testing Moscow - Russian Foreign Ministry

Russia has increased its submarine presence in the Atlantic at a higher level than ever in recent years, the top U.S. officer overseeing operations in Europe said Wednesday. “The Russians have been more active than we’ve seen them in years,” Army Gen. Chris Cavoli, the top commander for NATO and U.S. military operations in Europe, told Congress on Wednesday of Moscow’s undersea capabilities.

RUMINT-
There is allegedly an ongoing internal effort to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to switch to a defensive. This effort is reportedly unsuccessful so far.
NOTE – This appears to be a continuation of the centralization of tactical/strategic decision making with putin. Failure to make the switch with enough lead time to counter a Ukrainian offensive will be potentially devastating to Russian forces.

Logistics –
Iran has supplied 1000s of drones, a drone factory on Russian soil, a million rounds of ammunition 300,000 artillery shells in the past half year alone.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian sources report that Mikhail Mizintsev also known as ‘The Butcher of Mariupol’ was dismissed from the post of Russian Deputy Minister of Defense. In his position, he was responsible for the logistics of the troops, but apparently he didn’t do well enough.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city continue to make marginal gains. More Russian efforts north of Bahkmut along the M-03 highway.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians moving westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Other general Russian ground attacks elsewhere along the Donetsk front.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River.

Russian Territory –
Russian media report drones were shot down near Kursk Nuclear power plant in Kurchatov yesterday evening.

An explosion of an unidentified device occurred on the property of a thermal power plant in Pavlovsk, St. Petersburg, next to an abandoned building - Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.

Iran –

Iranian ayatollah Abbas-Ali Soleimani, a member of the Assembly of Experts for Leadership of Iran, was assassinated at a bank on Wednesday morning in the northern city of Babolsar, according to Iranian media reports.

Soleimani was a former representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei’s representatives are clerics who officiate on behalf of the supreme leader at a provincial level.

Soleimani’s killer has been detained, the Fars news agency said. The governor of Mazandaran, Mahmoud Hosseinipour, stated that Soleimani was killed by a security guard at the bank, according to Iranian state media. Initial investigations have indicated that the attacker fired aimlessly and did not know that Soleimani was there, although the attacker’s motive is still not clear, according to Hosseinipour.

**
The U.S. Navy said Iran seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday amid wider tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program.
The Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet identified the vessel as the Advantage Sweet. Satellite tracking data for the vessel from MarineTraffic.com showed it in the Gulf of Oman just north of Oman’s capital, Muscat, on Thursday afternoon. It had just come from Kuwait and listed its destination as Houston, Texas.
“The oil tanker issued a distress call during the seizure,” the 5th Fleet said. “Iran’s actions are contrary to international law and disruptive to regional security and stability. Iran should immediately release the oil tanker.”

OBSERVATION - Don’t expect much from the US so far. We are weak and Iran knows it.

Turkey -

Erdogan is reportedly sick with an unknown illness, sources say. Initial reports – since dismissed suggested a heart attack/ailment. This morning it is reported that Erdogan and Putin had a phone call. An announcement that may be designed to deflect health concerns.

17 days to the election and Erdogan has canceled several days worth of campaigning.

OBSERVATION – Erdogan is facing a significant fight for his political career as the economic woes Turkey has been experiencing are coming home to roost and a more moderate candidate has a chance at getting past the 50% margin for a first round win.

Central / South America General-

Things getting serious in Chile. While Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America violent crime reports have increased in recent years, officials caution that this sharp uptick is likely due to a resumption of public life after the pandemic lockdowns.
According to government data, homicides rose nearly a third in 2022, one of the highest yearly increases in the region, while violent robberies increased 63%. Kidnappings rose to 46, the highest number on record, according to the police, who detained 76 people in connection with the cases, most of whom were identified as foreigners.

Authorities say an influx of guns and organized crime have contributed to the numbers. That has hurt progressive President Gabriel Boric, with many voters disapproving of his handling of crime.

OBSERVATION – “Progressive” leadership = increase in crime.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is slipping off the cliff again. The Sudanese army has pounded paramilitary fighters with air strikes in the capital, Khartoum, while deadly fighting has flared in Darfur as a ceasefire that has slowed street battles is set to expire. The army said it agreed to talks in Juba, capital of neighboring South Sudan, on extending the truce, which expires late on Thursday. The talks have been proposed by a bloc of East African countries, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

France continues to evacuate US citizens , while our Sec State twiddles his thumbs. With violence resuming, the window for foreigners to get out of the country is dwindling.

Black Swans

One of the biggest black swan events that floats around the prepper world is the Solar EMP / megaflare scenario. The link below provides a good backgrounder on just what is happening solar wise and to understand the nature and potential of a threat.

https://www.sciencealert.com/were-about-to-enter-a-solar-maximum-an-expert-explains-what-to-expect

Thanks for all the info, lots of interesting stuff about China. I don’t know whether to believe anything Xi said publicly to Ukraine (or anything for that matter)

A lot on my plate this morning, so running a little late getting this out.

Economy –

I’ve been monitoring the corporate layoffs over the past year, given that these are foreshocks of a recession. They’ve been at a trickle, however, over the past few weeks that trickle is turning into a stream. Walmart, facebook, Tyson, Gap, 3M, Amazon and Disney, among many, are set to release tens of thousands from their work forces.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, during the first three months of this year job cuts in the United States were 396 percent higher than they were during the same period a year ago…
Companies announced nearly 90,000 layoffs in March, a sharp step up from the previous month and a giant acceleration from a year ago, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.
Planned layoffs totaled 89,703 for the period, an increase of 15% from February. Year to date, job cuts have soared to 270,416, an increase of 396% from the same period a year ago.
The damage was especially bad in tech, which has announced 102,391 cuts so far in 2023. That’s a staggering increase of 38,487% from a year ago and good for 38% of all staff reductions. Tech already has cut 5% more than for all of 2022, according to the report, and is on pace to eclipse 2001, the worst year ever amid the dot-com bust.

Though there is demand for workers in other sectors of the economy, these folk may find it difficult to fit in – due to mismatched skill sets.

Biden / Harris watch –

Kamala Harris says the Netflix series “Squid Game” is an example “of the cultural ties and the intertwined history between” the U.S. and South Korea.

OBSERVATION – Does someone have to dress her in the morning?

CW2/Domestic violence –

The Justice Department has a database of “incidental collection” information about U.S. citizens, which ten thousand DOJ employees can access – and 30% of the 3.4 million times they did so last year were in error, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) revealed Thursday.
The news came out at a House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Federal Government Surveillance hearing, as Judiciary Chair Jordan questioned U.S. Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board members Sharon Franklin and Beth Williams.
The FBI is refusing to reveal, or even estimate, how many Americans are in the “incidental collection” database, or much information about them has been incidentally acquired, they testified.
What’s more, the Justice Department is conducting these investigations of U.S. citizens without probable cause, Rep. Jordan explained:
“Americans are being picked up in this ‘incidental collection.’
“We don’t know the number. My guess is it’s pretty darn big. They won’t tell us.
“And, without probable cause, that database is being searched 3.4 million times – with all kinds of error rates, as Mr. Gates [R-Fla.], in his round of question, determined earlier.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/fbi-used-database-incidental-collection-info-about-us-citizens-34m-times-30-error-rep-jordan

OBSERVATION – Sadly, too many of today’s generation are ignorant of the surveillance state that Communism established (and like China, has maintained) during the cold war era. They didn’t have the fancy technology we have today which makes it orders of magnitude easier to track and record behavior. Establishment of a surveillance state is a strong indicator just haw close we are to a full blown tyrannical state – who have to eliminate/isolate opponents quickly and efficiently in order to move its agenda forward and consolidate power.

POLITICAL FRONT –

This remains an incredible dumpster fire of all time. Presidental campaigns, debt ceilings, Transtifia tantrums and more.

Illegal Immigration –

Biden issued an executive order Thursday authorizing heads of the Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to call up reserve troops to active duty for anti-drug missions at the southwest border.

OBSERVATION – Not border apprehensions, but drug enforcement.

**
Congressman, Andy Biggs, in an interview said he had just had a briefing by Border Patrol who said along the Southern border of the United States, there’s 700,000 to a million illegal aliens prepared, when Title 42 comes off, they’re basically prepared, he said, to storm the gates. And the Border Patrol is not prepared for it. The Biden regime is not prepared for this. This Title 42 that comes off is going to be something. And of course, the mainstream media will not cover this.

OBSERVATION – This will not end well.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

**

Putin in a new decree declared citizens living in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, but refused to accept Russian Federation citizenship, as foreign citizens.

RUMINT-
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin remarked on April 26 that as soon as weather conditions improve in Bakhmut, Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive, which may coincide with Russia’s May 9 Victory Day holiday (the commemoration of Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945).
NOTE – Paranoia over the Ukraine offensive continues.

Economic Impact –
The Russian economy has not collapsed because of Western sanctions, but those have crippled production of tanks, war planes and all weapons and munitions in general. Russian GDP shrank by about five percent while the number of Russians living below the poverty line reached 60 percent. The government is managing this decline mostly by ensuring that no one starves to death and concentrating military mobilization efforts in regions with the largest number of military age men who are unemployed. These growing economic problems are accompanied by more corruption, especially by officials who distribute emergency aid and manage military mobilization efforts. Russia’s economic situation will grow worse if the Ukrainian offensive is successful and Russian forces have to be reinforced to avoid losing territory.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20230428.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Agents for Ukraine’s secret service tried to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin with a drone carrying explosives Sunday, but it fell short of its target, German newspaper Bild reported Thursday.
The UJ-22 drone, the most modern Ukrainian medium-range drone with a range of nearly 500 miles, took off from Ukraine on Sunday carrying about 37 pounds of C-4 explosives, Bild reported. Its target was a newly built industrial park in Rudnevo southeast of Moscow that Putin was said to be visiting.
**

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian sources report that a Russian missiles hit a high-rise building in Uman, Cherkasy oblast. So far 19 reported dead. This missile attack against Ukrainian cities is the first significant one after weeks-long pause, utilizing Russian cruise missiles over Iranian made drones. Explosions were also reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv.

Ukraine reportred that from attack on Kyiv alone, “11 cruise missiles and 2 UAVs were shot down” - KMVA
Overall Ukraine reports that, 21 out of 23 cruise missiles and 2 drones were shot down.

Cruise missiles were launched from 10 Tu-95 and 6 Tu-22M3. Its been a while since these have been airborne.

Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city continue to make marginal gains. Recent fierce battles along the southern margin of the pocket as Ukraine fights to keep the H-32 highway open for resupply.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians moving westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Other general Russian ground attacks elsewhere along the Donetsk front.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River.

Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones attacked electrical substation in Nezhegol of Shebekyne district

Partisan Resistance ——

Ukrainian partisans reportedly conducted three separate attacks in occupied territories on April 26 and 27. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on April 27 that Ukrainian partisans used an improvised explosive device (IED) to kill occupation police officer Oleksandr Mishchenko in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on April 27 that members of the Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group “Atesh” killed two Russian servicemen in Velyki Kopani, Kherson Oblast, overnight on April 26-27. The Center also reported that Ukrainian partisans used an IED to kill the head of the public reception of Kremlin-controlled opposition party “A Just Russia – For Truth” Sergei Tvetinsk in his car near Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on April 26.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.

Note on the missile attack. Early last winter Russia had Ukraine on the ropes with their targeted missile attacks on their power grid. It was one of the few things they had managed to do right. However, then reality hit – they were substantially of short cruise and ballistic missiles as well as Iranian produced drones. The frequency and intensity of those attacks dropped off significantly and Ukraine showed great resilience in restoring the grid to the point where they resumed electricity export.

Since then, apart from a few Iranian drones and some S-300, Russia has been largely silent. This latest barrage was not that big from previous attacks and Ukrainian ADA dealt with most of them. The two that got thru hit an apartment building, indicating that the focus on these attacks are shifting to terror strikes against purely civilian targets. Nothing that Russia targeted overnight would have any impact on delaying/disrupting a Ukrainian offensive. And there you have Russia’s military planners weakness in a nutshell. They have tried and failed to demoralize the Ukrainian people for over a year. Attacks like this have only strengthened their resolve to expel the invaders. And when the offensive hits – Russia will have few strategic weapons to use to influence the outcome.

Europe / NATO General –

Denmark confirms sighting of Russian ship near Nord Stream pipeline days before explosion.
A Russian SS-750 specialized vessel, which carries a submarine on board, was photographed close to the location of the Nord Steam pipelines that were sabotaged in September 2022.

OBSERVATION – Speculation continues, but if further verified is very close to a smoking gun.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is slipping off the cliff again. Cease fire has been extended, but holding by a thread.

Other nations are successfully evacuating citizens (including some US). Blinkin’s policy is that US citizens are on their own. MSM isn’t covering this Afghanistan 2.0 fiasco.

Xi and China has to be viewed through multiple sources and their actions.

Bump

They’ve been at a trickle, however, over the past few weeks that trickle is turning into a stream. Walmart, facebook, Tyson, Gap, 3M, Amazon and Disney, among many, are set to release tens of thousands from their work forces.

People are feeling it happening... there's talk.

Shows in the consumer confidence numbers.

Very busy weekend, so a more abbreviated post. Outbreak of spring has me working hard and rediscovering muscles I have forgotten about. Still lots of danger out there, keep alert to changes.

Economy –

First Republic is considered by many, likely to be seized by the government after customers withdrew around $100 billion of deposits in just a few days and seeing its share price crash toward oblivion.
The San Francisco-based bank was shaken by similar factors that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate increases hurt the value of the bank’s assets and made its funding pricier. Depositors could. increasing earn better returns on money market mutual funds that park assets with Fed facilities, an investment many see as even safer than “money in the bank.”

OBSERVATION - Efforts by First Republic to stem the hemorrhage of money appear to many to not be enough to draw it back from the abyss. Efforts by the Fed, the Treasury and other major banks may decide its fate by the first of the week.

Biden / Harris watch –

Reports that biden is only ‘functional’ for about 6 hours a day .

CW2/Domestic violence –

Alito told the Wall Street Journal in a rare interview that he believes he knows who leaked the draft of his decision nearly two months before it was finalized and that such a release was also designed to make him a target of assassination.

OBSERVATION - He strikes on a scary point. The left is not beyond conduction assissinations to obtain their goals. Right not the intense press to discredit the USSC and delegitimize it, perhaps even to the point of pushing it out of the balance of power may very well have a more sinister component. There are still questions about Scalia’s death and with the Senate holding a thin margin for the democrats – buffered by a herd of RINOS, a death or removal of one of the conservative judges would create a window of opportunity for them to stuff another hard core liberal on the bench. And don’t think they won’t try one or the other – or both.

Wuhan Plandemic -

In a landmark accomplishment, Attorney Matt Tyson in California has successfully knocked a hole in the “immunity defense” wall that has protected doctors and hospitals from being sued for wrongful deaths after the administration of the toxic remdesivir…a drug Fauci himself knew had over 50% death rate in the earlier Ebola trials when he suddenly announced in spring 2020 that remdesivir would be the “gold standard” for treatment of COVID-19. What Fauci did not tell the public is that the government, through CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services), would pay a 20% incentive payment (“Bounty”) on the entire hospital bill per patient treated with remdesivir instead of older, safer medicines like hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and corticosteroids.

In a shocking finding during the investigations of the California wrongful death cases Attorney Tyson has reviewed, 99% of them are patients who were unvaccinated for COVID-19, strongly indicative of discriminatory treatment based on vaccination status. He also found a 3000% higher death risk with remdesivir than with other medicines.

OBSERVATION - Another lawsuit removing the shell of protection for the deadly ‘protocols’ dictated by the CDC and Fauci et al.

China –

China’s military flew 38 fighter jets and other warplanes near Taiwan, the Taiwanese defense ministry said Friday, in the biggest such flight display since the large military exercise in which it simulated sealing off the island earlier in April.

Naval vessels were also seen in the area as part of China’s long-running campaign of intimidation against Taiwan.
Included in this week’s activity includes the flight of a Chinese drone around the entire island – first for China.

OBSERVATION – The trend is for larger and larger exercises. At this stage they are designed not only to wear down Taiwan’s readiness, but to intimidate the govt into capitulation without having to actually fight.

Illegal Immigration –

Millions are cueing up in Mexico to rush the border when Title 42 ceases to exist.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

A Ukrainian drone targeted a major oil storage facility Sevastopol overnight. The strike caused a large fire to break out following the several explosions. Video posted on social media from across the harbor shows the entire oil terminal is now engulfed in fire with most of the tanks burning. Those not burning have likely been damaged by the intense heat. According to Russian media, 6 drones were involved in attack on oil depot in Sevastopol, but 4 were shot down by air defense

Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.

It has been estimated that Russia has lost 190,000 KIA – that is more than the entire initial invasion force. Documented equipment losses are equally shocking and given that Russia is having to draw on T54/55 series tanks for replacements further confirms the observations.

The Ukraine drone strike on Sevastopol overnight continues to demonstrate Ukrainian ingenuity in taking the fight to the Russians in their ‘safe’ areas. Earlier last week, two sea borne drones attacked the harbor there as well. Already scared of Ukraine capabilities, the Russian Black Sea fleet may be withdrawn further away and cede more of the sea to Ukrainian controls. The Russian fleet was said to be unstoppable at the start of the war, but that dominance left quickly as the Moskva and other major ships were sunk or severely damaged and put out of service.

Russia’s naval assets are in bad shape in other theaters as well. The Med fleet only seems to have but a few surface combatants capable of plying the sea. The Pacific fleet’s readiness exercise of a couple weeks ago demonstrated how poor maintenance and readiness has diminished that portion of Russian combat readiness as well.

Israel –

See airstrike on Syria below.

Syria -

Syrian state media says the Israeli Air Force carried out airstrikes against sites near Homs last night, wounding three civilians and damaging fuel tankers and trucks. Other sources note the prime targets were Hezbollah storage bunkers and associated facilities.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is still iffy and the latest ceasefire has numerous violations, including govt airstrikes on RSF elements around the capitol.

Thanks, I appreciate these.

On the threshold of a new week, and I wish I could say things were getting better.

Economy –

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to boost the benchmark lending rate target by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive increase going back to March of last year.

Bloomberg analysts state - “Signs point to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% in the May 3 decision — despite ongoing turmoil in the banking system — and signaling that this will be the last hike for a while. The next phase of the tightening cycle will be to hold rates at that elevated level, while watching to see if inflation trends down.”

OBSERVATION – The years plus worth of record increased in the prime have cut the economy to the bone. Even Musk recently noted that increased raises will likely drive the economy into a severe recession.

**
Pointed this out yesterday and now we have an answer. The FDIC asked PNC Financial Services and JPMorgan Chase to make their final bids by Sunday as it prepared to seize First Republic Bank. First Republic is the third bank to fail since March.

OBSERVATION – Repercussions may ripple through the markets next week and may even start another domino effect, forcing the Fed and Treasury Dept to react in an emergency manner.

Biden / Harris watch –

Gallup recently released survey data, which put Biden’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest point since he became president.

CW2/Domestic violence –

I offer to you an interesting article examining the concept of a CW2 and what it may look like. Your milage may vary, but it is a pretty comprehensive view on the topic.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-secession-and-civil-war

**
According to a 45,000-participant College Plus survey on respect, tolerance, and open-mindedness on American campuses – the largest ever conducted – 62 per cent of students said it’s “at least sometimes acceptable” to shout down a speaker, and one in five students said that using violence to stop a campus speech is “sometimes acceptable.”

OBSERVATION – The chickens have come home from the 60’s radicalism. These students force fed this sewage in a vacuum and non-experience in the real world mindlessly accept this drivel.

Wuhan Plandemic -

The April 2023 batch of Pfizer clinical trial documents released under court order by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) contains a shocking, eight-page document titled, “Pregnancy and Lactation Cumulative Review.” ( https://www.phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/125742_S2_M1_pllr-cumulative-review.pdf ) The data in the Cumulative Review are “…from the time of drug product development to 28-FEB-2021,” and Robert T. Maroko of the FDA approved the Review on April 20, 2021. It reveals that Pfizer and the FDA knew in early 2021 that Pfizer’s mRNA COVID vaccine, BNT162b2, resulted in:
• Adverse events in over 54% of pregnant women including:
o Fetal deaths.
o Fetal tachycardia requiring early delivery and hospitalization of the affected neonate for five days (outcome “unknown”).
o Premature labor and delivery resulting in:
 Neonatal deaths.
 Neonatal severe respiratory distress.
 Neonatal pneumothorax, which is a collection of air between the lung and the chest wall that develops when air leaks out of the lung.

OBSERVATION – I noted years ago now that the mRNA jab was demonstrated to severely damage a woman’s reproductive system and cause spontaneous miscarriages and other medical problems. Those reports were forced under wraps, until the past year when they were forced into the open. Squelching of these studies show that Pfizer et al were hiding evidence of negative results from their jab, putting forth a false ‘all is well’ front. This is plain and simple more evidence of fraud, and fraud strips the protection of the EUA declaration from lawsuits.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Last night the Press Corp elitists yucked it up with biden over the ousting of another journalist - blissfully ignorant that what goes around, comes around.

North/South Korea –

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates North Korea continues to expand and refurbish its Yongbyon nuclear complex, reinforcing concerns the country is acting on leader Kim Jong-un’s recent call for an “exponential” increase in its nuclear arsenal, 38 North, a U.S. think tank, said Friday.

The report based on satellite imagery taken April 20 said significant construction and improvement activities have been detected throughout the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, particularly around the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), the 5 MWe Reactor and within the uranium conversion area.

OBSERVATION – Kim has made it a goal to expand the country’s stockpile of nuclear weapons as a deterrence against the west (US) and SK. This is evidence that he is making good his threat.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

**

The soap opera continues at a higher crescendo.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the PMC “Wagner”, wrote a letter to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, demanding to provide ammunition. Prigozhin gave an ultimatum that if the problem with supplies for his PMC is not solved, he will complain to Putin, and the mercenaries will leave their positions in Bakhmut and retreat.

“I appeal to Shoigu with a request to immediately issue ammunition. In case of refusal, I consider it necessary to inform the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) about the existing problem in order to make a decision and about the advisability of further presence of the “Wagner” PMC in Bakhmut in conditions of ammunition shortage.”
“The deadline for making a decision is today, April 28,” Prigozhin said.

The leader of the mercenaries said that “ammunition is no longer left for weeks, but for days.” “If the shortage does not stop, ... part of the units we will be forced to withdraw from this territory, and then everything else will collapse,” Prigozhin said.

OBSERVATION – This has been only the tip of the iceberg of the Wagner v Russian MoD Game of Thrones. It shows continued fighting for resources and lack of a unified command. Even within the MoD, group commanders are bickering for supplies and support. Prigozhin has restored a degree of confidence from putin after being on the outs as a political threat. Prigozhin’s threats come in the context of a reported May 9th deadline to seize Bakhmut – See RUMINT below.
NOTE - The 28th has come and gone with no evidence of a Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut.

RUMINT-
Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.

Logistics –
It is reported that the PJSC Motovilikha Plant, which produces artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, caught fire in Perm, Russia.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River. Now their stated goal is to clear a 30Km zone to prevent tube artillery from striking Kherson.

Traffic jams have been report at the “Marinovka” Checkpoint from the Donetsk Region into Western Russia. Exits have reportedly increased since the attack on the oil storage facility on Sebastopol.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC.

Wagner PMC soap opera is one to watch (See Russia above). Will Prigozhin carry out his threat to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army? So far his deadline has passed and no apparent response. He’s been making similar threats for months now and not followed through with them. I doubt that he will, in the face of an impending Ukrainian offensive, to do so would devastate the Russian military position and all the blame will fall on him.

Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is continuing to decay. Fighting has intensified in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, shattering the latest ceasefire aimed at allowing people to flee to safety.

On Sunday the army said it was attacking the city from all directions, with air strikes and heavy artillery, to flush out its paramilitary rivals.
The latest truce was due to end late on Sunday. Millions remain trapped in the capital, where food is running short.

After two weeks of fighting, the US managed to get its act together enough to get its first evacuation of Americans safely to a port under escort of armed drones. A handful in the face of 16-19,000 trapped citizens.