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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Very busy weekend, so a more abbreviated post. Outbreak of spring has me working hard and rediscovering muscles I have forgotten about. Still lots of danger out there, keep alert to changes.


Economy –

First Republic is considered by many, likely to be seized by the government after customers withdrew around $100 billion of deposits in just a few days and seeing its share price crash toward oblivion.
The San Francisco-based bank was shaken by similar factors that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate increases hurt the value of the bank’s assets and made its funding pricier. Depositors could. increasing earn better returns on money market mutual funds that park assets with Fed facilities, an investment many see as even safer than “money in the bank.”

OBSERVATION - Efforts by First Republic to stem the hemorrhage of money appear to many to not be enough to draw it back from the abyss. Efforts by the Fed, the Treasury and other major banks may decide its fate by the first of the week.


Biden / Harris watch –

Reports that biden is only ‘functional’ for about 6 hours a day .


CW2/Domestic violence –

Alito told the Wall Street Journal in a rare interview that he believes he knows who leaked the draft of his decision nearly two months before it was finalized and that such a release was also designed to make him a target of assassination.

OBSERVATION - He strikes on a scary point. The left is not beyond conduction assissinations to obtain their goals. Right not the intense press to discredit the USSC and delegitimize it, perhaps even to the point of pushing it out of the balance of power may very well have a more sinister component. There are still questions about Scalia’s death and with the Senate holding a thin margin for the democrats – buffered by a herd of RINOS, a death or removal of one of the conservative judges would create a window of opportunity for them to stuff another hard core liberal on the bench. And don’t think they won’t try one or the other – or both.


Wuhan Plandemic -

In a landmark accomplishment, Attorney Matt Tyson in California has successfully knocked a hole in the “immunity defense” wall that has protected doctors and hospitals from being sued for wrongful deaths after the administration of the toxic remdesivir…a drug Fauci himself knew had over 50% death rate in the earlier Ebola trials when he suddenly announced in spring 2020 that remdesivir would be the “gold standard” for treatment of COVID-19. What Fauci did not tell the public is that the government, through CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services), would pay a 20% incentive payment (“Bounty”) on the entire hospital bill per patient treated with remdesivir instead of older, safer medicines like hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and corticosteroids.

In a shocking finding during the investigations of the California wrongful death cases Attorney Tyson has reviewed, 99% of them are patients who were unvaccinated for COVID-19, strongly indicative of discriminatory treatment based on vaccination status. He also found a 3000% higher death risk with remdesivir than with other medicines.

OBSERVATION - Another lawsuit removing the shell of protection for the deadly ‘protocols’ dictated by the CDC and Fauci et al.


China –

China’s military flew 38 fighter jets and other warplanes near Taiwan, the Taiwanese defense ministry said Friday, in the biggest such flight display since the large military exercise in which it simulated sealing off the island earlier in April.

Naval vessels were also seen in the area as part of China’s long-running campaign of intimidation against Taiwan.
Included in this week’s activity includes the flight of a Chinese drone around the entire island – first for China.

OBSERVATION – The trend is for larger and larger exercises. At this stage they are designed not only to wear down Taiwan’s readiness, but to intimidate the govt into capitulation without having to actually fight.


Illegal Immigration –

Millions are cueing up in Mexico to rush the border when Title 42 ceases to exist.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

A Ukrainian drone targeted a major oil storage facility Sevastopol overnight. The strike caused a large fire to break out following the several explosions. Video posted on social media from across the harbor shows the entire oil terminal is now engulfed in fire with most of the tanks burning. Those not burning have likely been damaged by the intense heat. According to Russian media, 6 drones were involved in attack on oil depot in Sevastopol, but 4 were shot down by air defense

Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.

It has been estimated that Russia has lost 190,000 KIA – that is more than the entire initial invasion force. Documented equipment losses are equally shocking and given that Russia is having to draw on T54/55 series tanks for replacements further confirms the observations.

The Ukraine drone strike on Sevastopol overnight continues to demonstrate Ukrainian ingenuity in taking the fight to the Russians in their ‘safe’ areas. Earlier last week, two sea borne drones attacked the harbor there as well. Already scared of Ukraine capabilities, the Russian Black Sea fleet may be withdrawn further away and cede more of the sea to Ukrainian controls. The Russian fleet was said to be unstoppable at the start of the war, but that dominance left quickly as the Moskva and other major ships were sunk or severely damaged and put out of service.

Russia’s naval assets are in bad shape in other theaters as well. The Med fleet only seems to have but a few surface combatants capable of plying the sea. The Pacific fleet’s readiness exercise of a couple weeks ago demonstrated how poor maintenance and readiness has diminished that portion of Russian combat readiness as well.


Israel –

See airstrike on Syria below.


Syria -

Syrian state media says the Israeli Air Force carried out airstrikes against sites near Homs last night, wounding three civilians and damaging fuel tankers and trucks. Other sources note the prime targets were Hezbollah storage bunkers and associated facilities.


Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is still iffy and the latest ceasefire has numerous violations, including govt airstrikes on RSF elements around the capitol.



268 posted on 04/29/2023 9:29:31 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 264 | View Replies ]


To: Godzilla

Thanks, I appreciate these.


269 posted on 04/29/2023 3:19:23 PM PDT by blu (FJB!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 268 | View Replies ]

To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

On the threshold of a new week, and I wish I could say things were getting better.


Economy –

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to boost the benchmark lending rate target by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive increase going back to March of last year.

Bloomberg analysts state - “Signs point to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% in the May 3 decision — despite ongoing turmoil in the banking system — and signaling that this will be the last hike for a while. The next phase of the tightening cycle will be to hold rates at that elevated level, while watching to see if inflation trends down.”

OBSERVATION – The years plus worth of record increased in the prime have cut the economy to the bone. Even Musk recently noted that increased raises will likely drive the economy into a severe recession.

**
Pointed this out yesterday and now we have an answer. The FDIC asked PNC Financial Services and JPMorgan Chase to make their final bids by Sunday as it prepared to seize First Republic Bank. First Republic is the third bank to fail since March.

OBSERVATION – Repercussions may ripple through the markets next week and may even start another domino effect, forcing the Fed and Treasury Dept to react in an emergency manner.


Biden / Harris watch –

Gallup recently released survey data, which put Biden’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest point since he became president.


CW2/Domestic violence –

I offer to you an interesting article examining the concept of a CW2 and what it may look like. Your milage may vary, but it is a pretty comprehensive view on the topic.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-secession-and-civil-war

**
According to a 45,000-participant College Plus survey on respect, tolerance, and open-mindedness on American campuses – the largest ever conducted – 62 per cent of students said it’s “at least sometimes acceptable” to shout down a speaker, and one in five students said that using violence to stop a campus speech is “sometimes acceptable.”

OBSERVATION – The chickens have come home from the 60’s radicalism. These students force fed this sewage in a vacuum and non-experience in the real world mindlessly accept this drivel.


Wuhan Plandemic -

The April 2023 batch of Pfizer clinical trial documents released under court order by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) contains a shocking, eight-page document titled, “Pregnancy and Lactation Cumulative Review.” ( https://www.phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/125742_S2_M1_pllr-cumulative-review.pdf ) The data in the Cumulative Review are “…from the time of drug product development to 28-FEB-2021,” and Robert T. Maroko of the FDA approved the Review on April 20, 2021. It reveals that Pfizer and the FDA knew in early 2021 that Pfizer’s mRNA COVID vaccine, BNT162b2, resulted in:
• Adverse events in over 54% of pregnant women including:
o Fetal deaths.
o Fetal tachycardia requiring early delivery and hospitalization of the affected neonate for five days (outcome “unknown”).
o Premature labor and delivery resulting in:
 Neonatal deaths.
 Neonatal severe respiratory distress.
 Neonatal pneumothorax, which is a collection of air between the lung and the chest wall that develops when air leaks out of the lung.

OBSERVATION – I noted years ago now that the mRNA jab was demonstrated to severely damage a woman’s reproductive system and cause spontaneous miscarriages and other medical problems. Those reports were forced under wraps, until the past year when they were forced into the open. Squelching of these studies show that Pfizer et al were hiding evidence of negative results from their jab, putting forth a false ‘all is well’ front. This is plain and simple more evidence of fraud, and fraud strips the protection of the EUA declaration from lawsuits.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Last night the Press Corp elitists yucked it up with biden over the ousting of another journalist - blissfully ignorant that what goes around, comes around.


North/South Korea –

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates North Korea continues to expand and refurbish its Yongbyon nuclear complex, reinforcing concerns the country is acting on leader Kim Jong-un’s recent call for an “exponential” increase in its nuclear arsenal, 38 North, a U.S. think tank, said Friday.

The report based on satellite imagery taken April 20 said significant construction and improvement activities have been detected throughout the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, particularly around the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), the 5 MWe Reactor and within the uranium conversion area.

OBSERVATION – Kim has made it a goal to expand the country’s stockpile of nuclear weapons as a deterrence against the west (US) and SK. This is evidence that he is making good his threat.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

**

The soap opera continues at a higher crescendo.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the PMC “Wagner”, wrote a letter to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, demanding to provide ammunition. Prigozhin gave an ultimatum that if the problem with supplies for his PMC is not solved, he will complain to Putin, and the mercenaries will leave their positions in Bakhmut and retreat.

“I appeal to Shoigu with a request to immediately issue ammunition. In case of refusal, I consider it necessary to inform the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) about the existing problem in order to make a decision and about the advisability of further presence of the “Wagner” PMC in Bakhmut in conditions of ammunition shortage.”
“The deadline for making a decision is today, April 28,” Prigozhin said.

The leader of the mercenaries said that “ammunition is no longer left for weeks, but for days.” “If the shortage does not stop, ... part of the units we will be forced to withdraw from this territory, and then everything else will collapse,” Prigozhin said.

OBSERVATION – This has been only the tip of the iceberg of the Wagner v Russian MoD Game of Thrones. It shows continued fighting for resources and lack of a unified command. Even within the MoD, group commanders are bickering for supplies and support. Prigozhin has restored a degree of confidence from putin after being on the outs as a political threat. Prigozhin’s threats come in the context of a reported May 9th deadline to seize Bakhmut – See RUMINT below.
NOTE - The 28th has come and gone with no evidence of a Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut.

RUMINT-
Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.

Logistics –
It is reported that the PJSC Motovilikha Plant, which produces artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, caught fire in Perm, Russia.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River. Now their stated goal is to clear a 30Km zone to prevent tube artillery from striking Kherson.

Traffic jams have been report at the “Marinovka” Checkpoint from the Donetsk Region into Western Russia. Exits have reportedly increased since the attack on the oil storage facility on Sebastopol.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC.

Wagner PMC soap opera is one to watch (See Russia above). Will Prigozhin carry out his threat to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army? So far his deadline has passed and no apparent response. He’s been making similar threats for months now and not followed through with them. I doubt that he will, in the face of an impending Ukrainian offensive, to do so would devastate the Russian military position and all the blame will fall on him.


Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is continuing to decay. Fighting has intensified in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, shattering the latest ceasefire aimed at allowing people to flee to safety.

On Sunday the army said it was attacking the city from all directions, with air strikes and heavy artillery, to flush out its paramilitary rivals.
The latest truce was due to end late on Sunday. Millions remain trapped in the capital, where food is running short.

After two weeks of fighting, the US managed to get its act together enough to get its first evacuation of Americans safely to a port under escort of armed drones. A handful in the face of 16-19,000 trapped citizens.


270 posted on 04/30/2023 5:38:43 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 268 | View Replies ]

To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

On the threshold of a new week, and I wish I could say things were getting better.


Economy –

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to boost the benchmark lending rate target by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive increase going back to March of last year.

Bloomberg analysts state - “Signs point to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% in the May 3 decision — despite ongoing turmoil in the banking system — and signaling that this will be the last hike for a while. The next phase of the tightening cycle will be to hold rates at that elevated level, while watching to see if inflation trends down.”

OBSERVATION – The years plus worth of record increased in the prime have cut the economy to the bone. Even Musk recently noted that increased raises will likely drive the economy into a severe recession.

**
Pointed this out yesterday and now we have an answer. The FDIC asked PNC Financial Services and JPMorgan Chase to make their final bids by Sunday as it prepared to seize First Republic Bank. First Republic is the third bank to fail since March.

OBSERVATION – Repercussions may ripple through the markets next week and may even start another domino effect, forcing the Fed and Treasury Dept to react in an emergency manner.


Biden / Harris watch –

Gallup recently released survey data, which put Biden’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest point since he became president.


CW2/Domestic violence –

I offer to you an interesting article examining the concept of a CW2 and what it may look like. Your milage may vary, but it is a pretty comprehensive view on the topic.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-secession-and-civil-war

**
According to a 45,000-participant College Plus survey on respect, tolerance, and open-mindedness on American campuses – the largest ever conducted – 62 per cent of students said it’s “at least sometimes acceptable” to shout down a speaker, and one in five students said that using violence to stop a campus speech is “sometimes acceptable.”

OBSERVATION – The chickens have come home from the 60’s radicalism. These students force fed this sewage in a vacuum and non-experience in the real world mindlessly accept this drivel.


Wuhan Plandemic -

The April 2023 batch of Pfizer clinical trial documents released under court order by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) contains a shocking, eight-page document titled, “Pregnancy and Lactation Cumulative Review.” ( https://www.phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/125742_S2_M1_pllr-cumulative-review.pdf ) The data in the Cumulative Review are “…from the time of drug product development to 28-FEB-2021,” and Robert T. Maroko of the FDA approved the Review on April 20, 2021. It reveals that Pfizer and the FDA knew in early 2021 that Pfizer’s mRNA COVID vaccine, BNT162b2, resulted in:
• Adverse events in over 54% of pregnant women including:
o Fetal deaths.
o Fetal tachycardia requiring early delivery and hospitalization of the affected neonate for five days (outcome “unknown”).
o Premature labor and delivery resulting in:
 Neonatal deaths.
 Neonatal severe respiratory distress.
 Neonatal pneumothorax, which is a collection of air between the lung and the chest wall that develops when air leaks out of the lung.

OBSERVATION – I noted years ago now that the mRNA jab was demonstrated to severely damage a woman’s reproductive system and cause spontaneous miscarriages and other medical problems. Those reports were forced under wraps, until the past year when they were forced into the open. Squelching of these studies show that Pfizer et al were hiding evidence of negative results from their jab, putting forth a false ‘all is well’ front. This is plain and simple more evidence of fraud, and fraud strips the protection of the EUA declaration from lawsuits.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Last night the Press Corp elitists yucked it up with biden over the ousting of another journalist - blissfully ignorant that what goes around, comes around.


North/South Korea –

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates North Korea continues to expand and refurbish its Yongbyon nuclear complex, reinforcing concerns the country is acting on leader Kim Jong-un’s recent call for an “exponential” increase in its nuclear arsenal, 38 North, a U.S. think tank, said Friday.

The report based on satellite imagery taken April 20 said significant construction and improvement activities have been detected throughout the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, particularly around the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), the 5 MWe Reactor and within the uranium conversion area.

OBSERVATION – Kim has made it a goal to expand the country’s stockpile of nuclear weapons as a deterrence against the west (US) and SK. This is evidence that he is making good his threat.


Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.

**

The soap opera continues at a higher crescendo.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the PMC “Wagner”, wrote a letter to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, demanding to provide ammunition. Prigozhin gave an ultimatum that if the problem with supplies for his PMC is not solved, he will complain to Putin, and the mercenaries will leave their positions in Bakhmut and retreat.

“I appeal to Shoigu with a request to immediately issue ammunition. In case of refusal, I consider it necessary to inform the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) about the existing problem in order to make a decision and about the advisability of further presence of the “Wagner” PMC in Bakhmut in conditions of ammunition shortage.”
“The deadline for making a decision is today, April 28,” Prigozhin said.

The leader of the mercenaries said that “ammunition is no longer left for weeks, but for days.” “If the shortage does not stop, ... part of the units we will be forced to withdraw from this territory, and then everything else will collapse,” Prigozhin said.

OBSERVATION – This has been only the tip of the iceberg of the Wagner v Russian MoD Game of Thrones. It shows continued fighting for resources and lack of a unified command. Even within the MoD, group commanders are bickering for supplies and support. Prigozhin has restored a degree of confidence from putin after being on the outs as a political threat. Prigozhin’s threats come in the context of a reported May 9th deadline to seize Bakhmut – See RUMINT below.
NOTE - The 28th has come and gone with no evidence of a Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut.

RUMINT-
Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.

Logistics –
It is reported that the PJSC Motovilikha Plant, which produces artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, caught fire in Perm, Russia.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.

Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.

The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.

Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River. Now their stated goal is to clear a 30Km zone to prevent tube artillery from striking Kherson.

Traffic jams have been report at the “Marinovka” Checkpoint from the Donetsk Region into Western Russia. Exits have reportedly increased since the attack on the oil storage facility on Sebastopol.

OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC.

Wagner PMC soap opera is one to watch (See Russia above). Will Prigozhin carry out his threat to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army? So far his deadline has passed and no apparent response. He’s been making similar threats for months now and not followed through with them. I doubt that he will, in the face of an impending Ukrainian offensive, to do so would devastate the Russian military position and all the blame will fall on him.


Africa general –

Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is continuing to decay. Fighting has intensified in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, shattering the latest ceasefire aimed at allowing people to flee to safety.

On Sunday the army said it was attacking the city from all directions, with air strikes and heavy artillery, to flush out its paramilitary rivals.
The latest truce was due to end late on Sunday. Millions remain trapped in the capital, where food is running short.

After two weeks of fighting, the US managed to get its act together enough to get its first evacuation of Americans safely to a port under escort of armed drones. A handful in the face of 16-19,000 trapped citizens.


271 posted on 04/30/2023 5:38:43 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 268 | View Replies ]

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