A lot on my plate this morning, so running a little late getting this out.
Economy –
I’ve been monitoring the corporate layoffs over the past year, given that these are foreshocks of a recession. They’ve been at a trickle, however, over the past few weeks that trickle is turning into a stream. Walmart, facebook, Tyson, Gap, 3M, Amazon and Disney, among many, are set to release tens of thousands from their work forces.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, during the first three months of this year job cuts in the United States were 396 percent higher than they were during the same period a year ago…
Companies announced nearly 90,000 layoffs in March, a sharp step up from the previous month and a giant acceleration from a year ago, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.
Planned layoffs totaled 89,703 for the period, an increase of 15% from February. Year to date, job cuts have soared to 270,416, an increase of 396% from the same period a year ago.
The damage was especially bad in tech, which has announced 102,391 cuts so far in 2023. That’s a staggering increase of 38,487% from a year ago and good for 38% of all staff reductions. Tech already has cut 5% more than for all of 2022, according to the report, and is on pace to eclipse 2001, the worst year ever amid the dot-com bust.
Though there is demand for workers in other sectors of the economy, these folk may find it difficult to fit in – due to mismatched skill sets.
Biden / Harris watch –
Kamala Harris says the Netflix series “Squid Game” is an example “of the cultural ties and the intertwined history between” the U.S. and South Korea.
OBSERVATION – Does someone have to dress her in the morning?
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Justice Department has a database of “incidental collection” information about U.S. citizens, which ten thousand DOJ employees can access – and 30% of the 3.4 million times they did so last year were in error, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) revealed Thursday.
The news came out at a House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Federal Government Surveillance hearing, as Judiciary Chair Jordan questioned U.S. Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board members Sharon Franklin and Beth Williams.
The FBI is refusing to reveal, or even estimate, how many Americans are in the “incidental collection” database, or much information about them has been incidentally acquired, they testified.
What’s more, the Justice Department is conducting these investigations of U.S. citizens without probable cause, Rep. Jordan explained:
“Americans are being picked up in this ‘incidental collection.’
“We don’t know the number. My guess is it’s pretty darn big. They won’t tell us.
“And, without probable cause, that database is being searched 3.4 million times – with all kinds of error rates, as Mr. Gates [R-Fla.], in his round of question, determined earlier.”
OBSERVATION – Sadly, too many of today’s generation are ignorant of the surveillance state that Communism established (and like China, has maintained) during the cold war era. They didn’t have the fancy technology we have today which makes it orders of magnitude easier to track and record behavior. Establishment of a surveillance state is a strong indicator just haw close we are to a full blown tyrannical state – who have to eliminate/isolate opponents quickly and efficiently in order to move its agenda forward and consolidate power.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This remains an incredible dumpster fire of all time. Presidental campaigns, debt ceilings, Transtifia tantrums and more.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden issued an executive order Thursday authorizing heads of the Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to call up reserve troops to active duty for anti-drug missions at the southwest border.
OBSERVATION – Not border apprehensions, but drug enforcement.
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Congressman, Andy Biggs, in an interview said he had just had a briefing by Border Patrol who said along the Southern border of the United States, there’s 700,000 to a million illegal aliens prepared, when Title 42 comes off, they’re basically prepared, he said, to storm the gates. And the Border Patrol is not prepared for it. The Biden regime is not prepared for this. This Title 42 that comes off is going to be something. And of course, the mainstream media will not cover this.
OBSERVATION – This will not end well.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
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Putin in a new decree declared citizens living in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, but refused to accept Russian Federation citizenship, as foreign citizens.
RUMINT-
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin remarked on April 26 that as soon as weather conditions improve in Bakhmut, Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive, which may coincide with Russia’s May 9 Victory Day holiday (the commemoration of Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945).
NOTE – Paranoia over the Ukraine offensive continues.
Economic Impact –
The Russian economy has not collapsed because of Western sanctions, but those have crippled production of tanks, war planes and all weapons and munitions in general. Russian GDP shrank by about five percent while the number of Russians living below the poverty line reached 60 percent. The government is managing this decline mostly by ensuring that no one starves to death and concentrating military mobilization efforts in regions with the largest number of military age men who are unemployed. These growing economic problems are accompanied by more corruption, especially by officials who distribute emergency aid and manage military mobilization efforts. Russia’s economic situation will grow worse if the Ukrainian offensive is successful and Russian forces have to be reinforced to avoid losing territory.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20230428.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Agents for Ukraine’s secret service tried to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin with a drone carrying explosives Sunday, but it fell short of its target, German newspaper Bild reported Thursday.
The UJ-22 drone, the most modern Ukrainian medium-range drone with a range of nearly 500 miles, took off from Ukraine on Sunday carrying about 37 pounds of C-4 explosives, Bild reported. Its target was a newly built industrial park in Rudnevo southeast of Moscow that Putin was said to be visiting.
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24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian sources report that a Russian missiles hit a high-rise building in Uman, Cherkasy oblast. So far 19 reported dead. This missile attack against Ukrainian cities is the first significant one after weeks-long pause, utilizing Russian cruise missiles over Iranian made drones. Explosions were also reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv.
Ukraine reportred that from attack on Kyiv alone, “11 cruise missiles and 2 UAVs were shot down” - KMVA
Overall Ukraine reports that, 21 out of 23 cruise missiles and 2 drones were shot down.
Cruise missiles were launched from 10 Tu-95 and 6 Tu-22M3. Its been a while since these have been airborne.
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking the northeast and eastern portions of the city continue to make marginal gains. Recent fierce battles along the southern margin of the pocket as Ukraine fights to keep the H-32 highway open for resupply.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians moving westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Other general Russian ground attacks elsewhere along the Donetsk front.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Ukraine continues to indicate that it has a military presence established on the left (east) bank of the Dnipir River.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones attacked electrical substation in Nezhegol of Shebekyne district
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian partisans reportedly conducted three separate attacks in occupied territories on April 26 and 27. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on April 27 that Ukrainian partisans used an improvised explosive device (IED) to kill occupation police officer Oleksandr Mishchenko in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on April 27 that members of the Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group “Atesh” killed two Russian servicemen in Velyki Kopani, Kherson Oblast, overnight on April 26-27. The Center also reported that Ukrainian partisans used an IED to kill the head of the public reception of Kremlin-controlled opposition party “A Just Russia – For Truth” Sergei Tvetinsk in his car near Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on April 26.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.
Note on the missile attack. Early last winter Russia had Ukraine on the ropes with their targeted missile attacks on their power grid. It was one of the few things they had managed to do right. However, then reality hit – they were substantially of short cruise and ballistic missiles as well as Iranian produced drones. The frequency and intensity of those attacks dropped off significantly and Ukraine showed great resilience in restoring the grid to the point where they resumed electricity export.
Since then, apart from a few Iranian drones and some S-300, Russia has been largely silent. This latest barrage was not that big from previous attacks and Ukrainian ADA dealt with most of them. The two that got thru hit an apartment building, indicating that the focus on these attacks are shifting to terror strikes against purely civilian targets. Nothing that Russia targeted overnight would have any impact on delaying/disrupting a Ukrainian offensive. And there you have Russia’s military planners weakness in a nutshell. They have tried and failed to demoralize the Ukrainian people for over a year. Attacks like this have only strengthened their resolve to expel the invaders. And when the offensive hits – Russia will have few strategic weapons to use to influence the outcome.
Europe / NATO General –
Denmark confirms sighting of Russian ship near Nord Stream pipeline days before explosion.
A Russian SS-750 specialized vessel, which carries a submarine on board, was photographed close to the location of the Nord Steam pipelines that were sabotaged in September 2022.
OBSERVATION – Speculation continues, but if further verified is very close to a smoking gun.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is slipping off the cliff again. Cease fire has been extended, but holding by a thread.
Other nations are successfully evacuating citizens (including some US). Blinkin’s policy is that US citizens are on their own. MSM isn’t covering this Afghanistan 2.0 fiasco.
People are feeling it happening... there's talk.