Chances are there will be no post tomorrow as I take a day off to get on top of a pesky sinus and cough, triggered by working too hard over the weekend with the warming temperatures.
Economy –
In a note to clients this morning, Goldman Sachs analysts say they believe the U.S. is still on track for a late July or early August technical default if a debt ceiling agreement isn’t made. They note the U.S. Treasury may have as little as $25-30 billion on the books in June.
Also, Yellen has stated that the US will run out of money by the first of June.
OBSERVATION - I think there is a good probability that the debt ceiling will be hit and a national shut down likely. 0bama forced it in his term, and biden is doubling down so far this time as well (though there are rumblings that biden et al didn’t expect the house to pass a plan, now forcing their hand). At just about every turn, democrats have taken the opportunity to damage our economy in an effort to force their communist / globalist agenda upon the ashes of what remains. They are willing to hurt the country to maintain power. June 1st is not that far away.
**
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a decision on another rate hike on Wednesday. Investment banks see the Fed hiking by .25-.50%, or 25 to 50 basis points.
OBSERVATION – Many economists are cringing on the prospect of a rise given the weakness of the current economy.
**
A Reuters poll of global economists says OPEC production cuts and rising Chinese demand will drive oil prices to $90/bbl by the end of the year.
OBSERVATION – Earlier it has been reported that $100/barrel was forecast. This may be blunted in that China’s demand may be restricted because the globe has gone into a recession and the market/demand for Chinese products severely limited.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CVN73 will return to Yokosuka in 2024 & relieve USS RONALD REAGAN CVN76 as the US Navy’s forward-based carrier in Japan. GW is in the final stages of a refueling overhaul. RR will transfer to Bremerton for overhaul at Puget Sound NSY
Wuhan Plandemic -
The court-mandated release of the documents related to what Pfizer and the FDA knew about the COVID-19 injections and when has unearthed evidence that they knew as early as April 2021 that the mRNA shots trigger adverse events (AEs) in breastfeeding babies.
OBSERVATION – More evidence of fraud, and though the govt won’t pursue it, private lawsuits against Pfizer/Moderna and the govt will gain traction with releases like this.
China –
The U.S. Department of (DoD) confirmed Monday it is following the path of a mystery high-altitude balloon crossing over American territory.
OBSERVATION – Most likely Chinese in origin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
**
China, India, Brazil and Armenia to name a few have voted in favour of a UN resolution calling Russia’s attack on Ukraine an “aggression”
OBSERVATION - This is SHOCKING!!! Russia’s so-called supporters and allies putting the knife into its back. Much more a foot here than even I realized.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Over the last 14 months there have been at least 19 senior Russian military command changes.
NOTE – Russia’s command structure has been a sham for a while, now when rubber meets the road they can’t get the job done and putin faces failure in accepting status quo and Russian ‘everything is awesome’ words from the Kremlin/MoD.
The US estimates that Russia has had 20,000 of its troops killed and over 80,000 wounded in Bakhmut offensive ALONE over the past 5 months.
NOTE – These numbers are pretty close to other estimates from OSINT sources. This is equivalent to about half the initial invasion force.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut but there seems to be a reduction in Russian attacks. . Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Russian Territory –
3 Russian servicemen wounded as result of explosion of devices dropped from the drones at Sushany village of Klimove district and Valuets of Pochepsk district of Briansk region
Partisan Resistance ——
Deputy commander of occupational police in Zaporizhzhia region wounded as result of explosion in Melitopol
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. It does appear that Russian activity comes in surges.
The real indicator for the Ukraine offensive is the weather and more specifically, how dry the ground is. The weather forecast appears to indicate a drying trend over the next week. It will probably take a little longer than a week for conditions to enter the optimal zone for off road maneuver but it is evident that the offensive’s delay due to soil / mud is coming to an end.
There is a great deal of speculation by Russian milbloggers as to just where Ukraine will strike. There are two general location. 1) Bakhmut and 2) Zaporizhzhia. One must review the stated stratigic goal of Ukraine – recapture of Crimea. Only a Zaporizhzhia assault addresses that specifically. This axis would also sever the land ‘bridge’ to the region and if Ukraine and shut down the Kerch Strait bridge again, Crimean Russian forces will be in a desperate situation. Bakhmut at this time appears to lack this strategic goal. However, I think Ukraine may well have plans up its sleeve to strike here in a supporting attack if they observe substantial Russian forces being pulled out to fight in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A real headache for Russian planners. As noted, Russian chain of command is in disarray – a feature Ukraine is well likely to exploit as well.
Russian force distribution is weighted toward Bakhmut and judging from the casualty estimates for the 5 month Russian offensive, it has taken its toll. The quality of the forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia are questionable.
One final observation – Ukraine has been very adept at surprises to gain a tactical advantage. Just like the Kharkiv – Kherson 1 – 2 punch last year.
Still feel a little rotten but with the shenanigans that broke out when I took a down day, decided to do a tightened post. Lots more happening out there, but these are the critical ones for me.
Economy –
Regional banking is under renewed attack with more potential failures.
PacWest and Western Alliance may face control takeover by the FDIC on Friday and have larger banks take them over by the weekend. Now late news that a third bank, First Horizion – is facing similar shortfalls in liquity.
Shares of PacWest tanked by more than 50%. The decline came after news that the California bank has been assessing strategic options, including a possible sale, a person familiar told CNBC. Bloomberg first reported that the bank was weighing its choices. Regional bank shares sold off hard, with Western Alliance tumbling 23% and Zions Bancorporation dropping about 10%.
IN RELATED There likely won’t be a respite for the embattled regional banking sector until the Fed cuts interest rates, said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. (CNBC).
Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 25 basis points yesterday.
OBSERVATION – Key note – the big banks like JP Morgan, are snapping up these banks at bargain basement prices because the fed is picking up the losses. Big banks are removing competition as well as streamlining controls for when national/global digital currencies come on line. Simlar to how the big stores like WalMart leveraged the wuhan plandemic closures to put smaller competitors out of business.
The increase in the prime rate will only add pressure to banks already underwater due Treasury Bond losses. Could well develop into much larger round of bank failures.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Jordan Neely, a thug with over 40 arrests for violent act was killed after threatening more violence. With this, the BLM / Antifa think they have found their new icon for committing more violence. We will have to wait and see just what pans out.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden essentially refusing any compromise on the debt ceiling legislation.
Illegal Immigration –
El Paso TX declares a state of emergency in anticipation of being flooded by illegals when Title 42 expires.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
**
The now infamous drone attack on the Kremlin – My assessment.
Two most probably quad rotor designed drones hit at the Kremlin. The video footage that as gained interwebs viewer ship is the second strike and shows probable Kremlin security on the dome, likely to assess damage from the first strike.
These type of drones have gained prominence in the frontline fighting for their capacity to carry explosives and adequate range. However, from the sized of the explosion the warheads weren’t much larger than a mortar shell. They do not have the range to fly from Ukraine to Moscow thought, which means there had to be a ground team close by to launch and track them.
The attack itself had the first hitting the dome. The had a clear alternative target -the Russian flag pole. Neither had sufficient explosives to do substantial damage, though the first reportedly did start a small fire. To me it appears that the attack was to embarrass putin/Russia. The first to suddenly cause cameras to focus on the dome and the second a strike against the flag – a symbolic move.
Who dunnit? Several rampant theories.
1) False flag operation. Russian wants justification to strike harder against Ukraine and with the May 9th celebration approaching wants something to hang its hat on as far as success. Alternatively, it could be an effort to rouse the country in an effort to gain support prior to the Ukraine offensive, potentially blunting any negative fallout from Russian losses.
2) Internal dissident elements. Not gaining much notice that I can see. Putin has a lot of political enemies and they may have thought these drones could target and kill him.
3) Ukrainian forces / infiltration. Ukraine has been very careful to date avoiding any direct fire against the Kremlin faculties.
At this stage I don’t think we will know who dunnit, but Russia is breaking the presses with hyperbole against Ukraine and US.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
As a result of the drone attacks, RUMINT went into overdrive over ‘reported’ Russian activity that may indicate a nuclear attack was pending as a reply. At this stage there is a very low probability of an imminent nuclear strike. However that possibility of a tactical nuke could go substantially higher if the Ukrainian Offensive sees significant success and moves on Crimea in a manner that Russian ground forces are unable to stop/slow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Drone strike on the Kremlin - see Russia above for my commentary and analysis.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 24 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia overnight.
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut but there seems to be a reduction in Russian attacks. . Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Russian Territory –
Fires reported at Ilyinsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai and Novoshakhtinsky oil products plant in Rostov region as result of suspected drone strikes.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east, except that it does appear that Russian attacks are now slowing in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka areas.
The Russian response to the drone attacks could have triggered the Shahed drone strikes overnight as retaliation. If true, Russia is wasting these drones as well as recent cruise missile attacks by attacking in piecemeal fashion.
Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly hit Russian petroleum storage facilities, far behind the front line. It doesn’t take much explosive to start a fire there that could take out much of the facility. Russia ADA coverage is sorely lacking, and response must be giving Russian planners fits.
Covered the drone attack on the Kremlin under “Russia” above. Lots of questions on Russian response but it complicates Russian planning (or what resembles planning) for the Ukraine offensive. It will cause them to divert attention to defend the Kremlin and hurt defensive planning.
Israel –
Islamic factions in Gaza launched over 100 rockets into Israel in the last 24-48 hours. Israel has responded by bombing the snot out of Hamas facilities.
The exchange was prompted by the death of Khader Adnan, an Islamic Jihad senior official in the West Bank who died in Israeli custody Tuesday morning after an 86-day hunger strike.
OBSERVATION – Launches primarly by the PIJ evidenced by the poor quality of the rockets. Over a dozen went the wrong way – into the Med, another dozen didn’t even make it out of Gaza. As with previous attacks, Israel held Hamas to account because they are the defacto leaders of the territory.
Still feel a little rotten but with the shenanigans that broke out when I took a down day, decided to do a tightened post. Lots more happening out there, but these are the critical ones for me.
Economy –
Regional banking is under renewed attack with more potential failures.
PacWest and Western Alliance may face control takeover by the FDIC on Friday and have larger banks take them over by the weekend. Now late news that a third bank, First Horizion – is facing similar shortfalls in liquity.
Shares of PacWest tanked by more than 50%. The decline came after news that the California bank has been assessing strategic options, including a possible sale, a person familiar told CNBC. Bloomberg first reported that the bank was weighing its choices. Regional bank shares sold off hard, with Western Alliance tumbling 23% and Zions Bancorporation dropping about 10%.
IN RELATED There likely won’t be a respite for the embattled regional banking sector until the Fed cuts interest rates, said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. (CNBC).
Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 25 basis points yesterday.
OBSERVATION – Key note – the big banks like JP Morgan, are snapping up these banks at bargain basement prices because the fed is picking up the losses. Big banks are removing competition as well as streamlining controls for when national/global digital currencies come on line. Simlar to how the big stores like WalMart leveraged the wuhan plandemic closures to put smaller competitors out of business.
The increase in the prime rate will only add pressure to banks already underwater due Treasury Bond losses. Could well develop into much larger round of bank failures.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Jordan Neely, a thug with over 40 arrests for violent act was killed after threatening more violence. With this, the BLM / Antifa think they have found their new icon for committing more violence. We will have to wait and see just what pans out.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden essentially refusing any compromise on the debt ceiling legislation.
Illegal Immigration –
El Paso TX declares a state of emergency in anticipation of being flooded by illegals when Title 42 expires.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
**
The now infamous drone attack on the Kremlin – My assessment.
Two most probably quad rotor designed drones hit at the Kremlin. The video footage that as gained interwebs viewer ship is the second strike and shows probable Kremlin security on the dome, likely to assess damage from the first strike.
These type of drones have gained prominence in the frontline fighting for their capacity to carry explosives and adequate range. However, from the sized of the explosion the warheads weren’t much larger than a mortar shell. They do not have the range to fly from Ukraine to Moscow thought, which means there had to be a ground team close by to launch and track them.
The attack itself had the first hitting the dome. The had a clear alternative target -the Russian flag pole. Neither had sufficient explosives to do substantial damage, though the first reportedly did start a small fire. To me it appears that the attack was to embarrass putin/Russia. The first to suddenly cause cameras to focus on the dome and the second a strike against the flag – a symbolic move.
Who dunnit? Several rampant theories.
1) False flag operation. Russian wants justification to strike harder against Ukraine and with the May 9th celebration approaching wants something to hang its hat on as far as success. Alternatively, it could be an effort to rouse the country in an effort to gain support prior to the Ukraine offensive, potentially blunting any negative fallout from Russian losses.
2) Internal dissident elements. Not gaining much notice that I can see. Putin has a lot of political enemies and they may have thought these drones could target and kill him.
3) Ukrainian forces / infiltration. Ukraine has been very careful to date avoiding any direct fire against the Kremlin faculties.
At this stage I don’t think we will know who dunnit, but Russia is breaking the presses with hyperbole against Ukraine and US.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
As a result of the drone attacks, RUMINT went into overdrive over ‘reported’ Russian activity that may indicate a nuclear attack was pending as a reply. At this stage there is a very low probability of an imminent nuclear strike. However that possibility of a tactical nuke could go substantially higher if the Ukrainian Offensive sees significant success and moves on Crimea in a manner that Russian ground forces are unable to stop/slow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Drone strike on the Kremlin - see Russia above for my commentary and analysis.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 24 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia overnight.
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut but there seems to be a reduction in Russian attacks. . Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Russian Territory –
Fires reported at Ilyinsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai and Novoshakhtinsky oil products plant in Rostov region as result of suspected drone strikes.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east, except that it does appear that Russian attacks are now slowing in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka areas.
The Russian response to the drone attacks could have triggered the Shahed drone strikes overnight as retaliation. If true, Russia is wasting these drones as well as recent cruise missile attacks by attacking in piecemeal fashion.
Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly hit Russian petroleum storage facilities, far behind the front line. It doesn’t take much explosive to start a fire there that could take out much of the facility. Russia ADA coverage is sorely lacking, and response must be giving Russian planners fits.
Covered the drone attack on the Kremlin under “Russia” above. Lots of questions on Russian response but it complicates Russian planning (or what resembles planning) for the Ukraine offensive. It will cause them to divert attention to defend the Kremlin and hurt defensive planning.
Israel –
Islamic factions in Gaza launched over 100 rockets into Israel in the last 24-48 hours. Israel has responded by bombing the snot out of Hamas facilities.
The exchange was prompted by the death of Khader Adnan, an Islamic Jihad senior official in the West Bank who died in Israeli custody Tuesday morning after an 86-day hunger strike.
OBSERVATION – Launches primarly by the PIJ evidenced by the poor quality of the rockets. Over a dozen went the wrong way – into the Med, another dozen didn’t even make it out of Gaza. As with previous attacks, Israel held Hamas to account because they are the defacto leaders of the territory.