Still feel a little rotten but with the shenanigans that broke out when I took a down day, decided to do a tightened post. Lots more happening out there, but these are the critical ones for me.
Economy –
Regional banking is under renewed attack with more potential failures.
PacWest and Western Alliance may face control takeover by the FDIC on Friday and have larger banks take them over by the weekend. Now late news that a third bank, First Horizion – is facing similar shortfalls in liquity.
Shares of PacWest tanked by more than 50%. The decline came after news that the California bank has been assessing strategic options, including a possible sale, a person familiar told CNBC. Bloomberg first reported that the bank was weighing its choices. Regional bank shares sold off hard, with Western Alliance tumbling 23% and Zions Bancorporation dropping about 10%.
IN RELATED There likely won’t be a respite for the embattled regional banking sector until the Fed cuts interest rates, said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. (CNBC).
Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 25 basis points yesterday.
OBSERVATION – Key note – the big banks like JP Morgan, are snapping up these banks at bargain basement prices because the fed is picking up the losses. Big banks are removing competition as well as streamlining controls for when national/global digital currencies come on line. Simlar to how the big stores like WalMart leveraged the wuhan plandemic closures to put smaller competitors out of business.
The increase in the prime rate will only add pressure to banks already underwater due Treasury Bond losses. Could well develop into much larger round of bank failures.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Jordan Neely, a thug with over 40 arrests for violent act was killed after threatening more violence. With this, the BLM / Antifa think they have found their new icon for committing more violence. We will have to wait and see just what pans out.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden essentially refusing any compromise on the debt ceiling legislation.
Illegal Immigration –
El Paso TX declares a state of emergency in anticipation of being flooded by illegals when Title 42 expires.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
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The now infamous drone attack on the Kremlin – My assessment.
Two most probably quad rotor designed drones hit at the Kremlin. The video footage that as gained interwebs viewer ship is the second strike and shows probable Kremlin security on the dome, likely to assess damage from the first strike.
These type of drones have gained prominence in the frontline fighting for their capacity to carry explosives and adequate range. However, from the sized of the explosion the warheads weren’t much larger than a mortar shell. They do not have the range to fly from Ukraine to Moscow thought, which means there had to be a ground team close by to launch and track them.
The attack itself had the first hitting the dome. The had a clear alternative target -the Russian flag pole. Neither had sufficient explosives to do substantial damage, though the first reportedly did start a small fire. To me it appears that the attack was to embarrass putin/Russia. The first to suddenly cause cameras to focus on the dome and the second a strike against the flag – a symbolic move.
Who dunnit? Several rampant theories.
1) False flag operation. Russian wants justification to strike harder against Ukraine and with the May 9th celebration approaching wants something to hang its hat on as far as success. Alternatively, it could be an effort to rouse the country in an effort to gain support prior to the Ukraine offensive, potentially blunting any negative fallout from Russian losses.
2) Internal dissident elements. Not gaining much notice that I can see. Putin has a lot of political enemies and they may have thought these drones could target and kill him.
3) Ukrainian forces / infiltration. Ukraine has been very careful to date avoiding any direct fire against the Kremlin faculties.
At this stage I don’t think we will know who dunnit, but Russia is breaking the presses with hyperbole against Ukraine and US.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
As a result of the drone attacks, RUMINT went into overdrive over ‘reported’ Russian activity that may indicate a nuclear attack was pending as a reply. At this stage there is a very low probability of an imminent nuclear strike. However that possibility of a tactical nuke could go substantially higher if the Ukrainian Offensive sees significant success and moves on Crimea in a manner that Russian ground forces are unable to stop/slow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Drone strike on the Kremlin - see Russia above for my commentary and analysis.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 24 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia overnight.
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut but there seems to be a reduction in Russian attacks. . Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Russian Territory –
Fires reported at Ilyinsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai and Novoshakhtinsky oil products plant in Rostov region as result of suspected drone strikes.
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east, except that it does appear that Russian attacks are now slowing in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka areas.
The Russian response to the drone attacks could have triggered the Shahed drone strikes overnight as retaliation. If true, Russia is wasting these drones as well as recent cruise missile attacks by attacking in piecemeal fashion.
Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly hit Russian petroleum storage facilities, far behind the front line. It doesn’t take much explosive to start a fire there that could take out much of the facility. Russia ADA coverage is sorely lacking, and response must be giving Russian planners fits.
Covered the drone attack on the Kremlin under “Russia” above. Lots of questions on Russian response but it complicates Russian planning (or what resembles planning) for the Ukraine offensive. It will cause them to divert attention to defend the Kremlin and hurt defensive planning.
Israel –
Islamic factions in Gaza launched over 100 rockets into Israel in the last 24-48 hours. Israel has responded by bombing the snot out of Hamas facilities.
The exchange was prompted by the death of Khader Adnan, an Islamic Jihad senior official in the West Bank who died in Israeli custody Tuesday morning after an 86-day hunger strike.
OBSERVATION – Launches primarly by the PIJ evidenced by the poor quality of the rockets. Over a dozen went the wrong way – into the Med, another dozen didn’t even make it out of Gaza. As with previous attacks, Israel held Hamas to account because they are the defacto leaders of the territory.
Nice job for someone feeling under the weather - hope you’re feeling better soon.
The explosion of AI on the scene since the first of the year has been unprecedented. Its capabilities are incredible and the threat to human growing as its capabilities continue to expand. The current Screen Writers strike - that has silenced leftist ‘comedians’ on the late night – are now expressing concerns that AI could put them out of business with better ‘jokes’. AI driving other sectors in one scenario would be a bliss, in others things would become shear hell. As a tool of the WEF/GGR the latter is the target - a tool for ultimate totalitarian control of the world.
Economy –
Regional banks in the west – particularly kalifornia – are on watch
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According to data from the Department of Labor, initial unemployment claims rose by 13,000 in the week ending April 29. At the same time, continuing claims, which include those who received unemployment benefits for at least one week, fell by 38,000.
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The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) price index increased in April for the first time this year and is up 20% since March 2022.
OBSERVATION – That means our food prices will likely continue upwards as well.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Federal agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service and the Environmental Protection Agency have spent nearly $4 billion in taxpayer funds on guns, ammunition, and other “military-style equipment,” a watchdog group found.
Since 2006, “76 rank-and-file agencies” outside “traditional law enforcement entities” or the Department of Defense spent $3.7 billion on “guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment,” according to watchdog group Open the Books’s summary of its report. These agencies include the National Institutes of Health, NASA, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Small Business Administration, among others that historically have played little to no role in law enforcement activities.
Federal agencies have ramped up spending on weapons and ammunition under the Biden administration, according to data provided to the Washington Free Beacon. The IRS has seen its annual spending on these items nearly double since 2020, while the whole federal government has seen a 60 percent increase over the same period.
The federal government now employs more than 200,000 agents with “arrest and firearm authority,” according to the report.
OBSERVATION – This is far in excess of what these agencies need – which is zero. This is 0bama’s alternative to the US Army and should things go sideways, these alphabet agencies and their muscle will work against citizens to enforce the edicts of the regime.
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BLM activists are attempting to push Jordan Neely as the new poster child of death by white supremacy/privilege. This effort, however, is not gaining traction in that it wasn’t a lone white guy that subdued him until police could arrive, but two others, including a black. This on top of his mile long rap sheet of increasingly violent behavior. People riding the subway, including blacks, recognized the danger from this individual – as well as dozens and dozens of other thugs that threaten and attack subway riders every day – and don’t see it as murder. AOC calls for violence, while NYC mayor calls for calm.
The left decries this as ‘vigilante-ism’, but its not by definition. Its citizens being forced to protect themselves when the govt refuses to do its job and keep these criminals off the street.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army does not expect to hit its ambitious recruiting goal of 65,000 new soldiers this year as the pool of young Americans eligible to serve continues to shrink.
“We are not going to make that goal,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told lawmakers at a congressional hearing Tuesday. “We are doing everything we can to get as close to it as possible; we are going to fall short.”
OBSERVATION – The military services are being hamstrung in that the national leadership has vilified the very individuals this country needs for their fighting force.
And of course, this doesn’t help the recruiting efforts either –
US Navy invited an active-duty drag queen Joshua Kelley to be a ‘Digital Ambassador’ – as part of a recent drive “to attract the most talented and diverse workforce” and combat plunging recruitment.
OMG – In less than 3 years, biden has turned our military into the laughingstock of the world.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Smear campaign against Justice Thomas continues as political hit men and MSM pieces target her in order to get at him. The goal is to try to force one or more of the conservative justices out so the democrats can try to stack the deck with more liberals. Alternatively, democrats may, if they can get the House back under democrat control, stack the court.
National politics in general has devolved into a dumpster fire of unbeleveable magnitude. Biden criminal actions, US border cities trying to prepare for a tsunami of illegals, financial chaos in banks and economy in general, Transtifa, BLM seeking their new Floyd, ultra leftist governors working to strip citizens of their rights, Red state gov’s and legslators working hard to set up firewalls to protect from oncoming federal govt insanity. And the list can go on and on.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarly Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA in the Bakhmut fight.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukranian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones sheo evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
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Prigozhin claims that Wagner will leave Bakhmut by May 10 and hand over positions to the troops of the Russian Federation and ‘lick their wounds’.
“Because, in the absence of ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death.”
Kremlin’s spokesperson confirmed Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s statements.
NOTE – The kremlin soap opera continues.
Russia is using the drone ‘attack ‘ on the Kremlin as a reason to cancel May 9th celebratory military parades across the country. Speculation is that Russian forces and putin will look weak because such parades will have to rely upon relics rather than the top of the line equipment commonly displayed pre-Ukraine.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
5 Russian naval vessels armed with nuclear capable cruise missiles joined together in the North Sea. No evidence that they have nuclear warheads on board.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s “Butcher of Mariupol,” Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev has just been ID’d as the newly appointed deputy leader of the Wagner Group.
He was Deputy Minister of Defense until a week ago, when he was sacked.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Buried in many reports from Ukraine is a potential oblique reference to shooting down of one of Russia’s ‘hypersonic’ missiles. There is inference from the OSINT side that this was taken down by a recently activated Patriot battery.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have noticeably dropped off the past several days. Continued Ukrainian counter attacks along the south margin of the pocket to maintain road access to the city. More on this drop off of fighting below under ‘outlook’.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna. Ukrainian ‘reconnaissance in force’ operations (Russian reports) along the Zaporizhizhia front
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east, except that it does appear that Russian attacks are now significantly slowing in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka areas. The Bakhmut fight may be reflecting Wagner’s threat to pull out of the sector unless it received more ammo and artillery support. Prigozhin made that demand several days ago and we are past that deadline. His renewed demands are unlikely to be met in the near future and his withdrawal also unlikely as that action could be played by his opponents in the MoD as treasonous. This combat slowdown may be his middle of the road way to pressure for the resources he demand. Russian MoD also realizes that the more he consumes the less they will have when the Ukraine offensive kicks off . However, in the kremlin power politics these dinosaurs don’t really care about collateral damage (dead Russian soldiers) – only raw power.
This fight over resources is a continuation of the power struggles the different army commanders have been playing since day one. Absent a theater commander to direct and integrate the combat from all the different sectors into a supporting and efficient effort, the separate commands constantly bickered for resources, with those having better political connections getting more than their share of the supplies. It has worked for Russia then and it continues not to work for Russia now, even though there is a theater ‘commander’ in place now to coordinate fighting and supply.
Weather conditions continue to look favorable for a kickoff of the Ukrainian offensive in the next week or so. Soil conditions are critical for maneuver and follow-on logistical support. My bet is Zaporizhizhia – most direct path to its stated goal of liberating Crimea. This would also split the Russian forces in two and deny resupply via Crimea to units in the east. There is a possibility of a supporting attack in the Svatove-Kreminna region to deny resupply to Russian forces in the east.
Europe / NATO General –
Five Russian warships plus two support vessels popped up today in the waters off the UK and all are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles. The Kalibr is a Russian land attack cruise missile with an range of up to 1,500 miles. The missile can carry 1,100lb of conventional explosives or a thermonuclear warhead
The Russian warships converged in the North Sea from their multiple bases in a deliberate show of force. The sabre-rattling drills were deliberately timed to coincide with King Charles’s coronation, the defence source said.
A Royal Navy Type 23 frigate was sent to shadow the Russian armada.
OBSERVATION – I don’t think Russia is stupid enough to start a nuclear war by attacking Britain during the ceremonies for King Charles. But this is just enough to rattle the cages of some.