Welcome to May day, where communist despots goose step their troops to keep the sheeple in line.
Globalism / Great Reset –
On 10 April, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) published the ‘IMF Approach to Central Bank Digital Currency Capacity Development’. It outlines the IMF’s multi-year strategy for aiding central bank digital currency (“CBDC”) rollouts, including the development of a living ‘CBDC Handbook’ for monetary authorities to follow.
OBSERVATION – This managed to fly below my radar with all the other crap hitting the fan. I’ve noted in the past that the development and implementation of digital currencies will be done in what appears to be independent basis, to varying degrees based on the country and social resistance to such a move. Here, the IMF provides the overall standards of the move to digital, because overall goal is a global system, so each of these ‘independent’ systems will be compliant when the switch to a global system occurs.
Economy –
Regulators seized troubled First Republic Bank early on Monday and sold all of its deposits and most of its assets to JPMorgan Chase in a bid to head off further banking turmoil in the US.
San Francisco-based First Republic is the third midsize bank to fail in two months. It is the second-biggest bank failure in US history, behind only Washington Mutual, which collapsed at the height of the 2008 financial crisis and was also taken over by JPMorgan.
OBSERVATION – Many other banks have similar problems and may fail as the recession hits and gets worse.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In the face of democrat attempts to delegitimize the USSC, the Justices unanimously sent a reply to them to essentially knock it off.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with light rain over most of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut with Russian forces attacking from three sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack against Ukraine. It was initially believed to be the largest in a long time, that is until reality came around. The Ukrainian Air Force claims to have downed 15 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles out of 18 launched by Russian bombers overnight.
Approximately 20 Russian strategic bombers (17 TU-95s and 3 Tu-160 Supersonic Strategic Bombers) were in the air giving the impression of a much larger attack in the making (each bomber can hold up to 6 cruise missiles). This was further exaggerated by reports of missile launches from the Black Sea region. One missile apparently hit deep near an industrial enterprise in Zhytomyr region, Western Ukraine.
Adding to the mix was Russian’s 29B6 ‘Kontayner’ OTHR (Over The Horizon Radar) cover ing the bottom of the 40 meter amateur radio band all over Europe (had little to no impact on ADA radars which operate in the 10 meter band).
Earlier, Russian S300 missiles hit Pavlograd, creating large secondary explosions. Russians claim they hit an air defense system and associated ammunition.
Ukrainian sources say it was 38 old ballistic missiles (SS-24) with 1,800 tons of rocket fuel. They were stored at the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant. They were not decommissioned due to lack of funds. (This was the case until 2019). Additionally, a rail road hub at the city was reportedly also hit.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosion was reported at hotel, hosting Russian military in Melitopol.
Russian Territory –
Freight train derailed in Briansk region of Russia after track was blown up.
Power line pylon was blown up near Gatchina in Leningrad region
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. Eyes on Ukrainian movements and battlefield shaping operations and those operations will be kept under tight OPSEC. See Russian RUMINT above for an interesting thought that Russia will continue the ‘offense’.
Ukraine officials stated that the stike on the petroleum facility in Crimea was ‘battlefield preparation’. If true, then the offensive is not too far off, most likely some time this month.
Russia’s missile strikes yesterday gave the appearance that someone with half a brain was trying to start a preemptive campaign against Ukrainian offensive preparations. The apparent problem is Russia has wasted so many missiles of all types over the course of the war that they appear not to be able to muster the numbers to effectively impact Ukrainian preparations. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to improve its ADA capabilities to knock down these barrages, and it will only get better at it as more modern western systems like the Patriot come on line. With an 80-90 % shootdown ratio, Russia will need a lot more missiles to do any really effective damage.
Increasing concern bouncing around Russian milblogger channels over the apparent lack of defensive preparations and the continuation of the costly offensive in the Bahkmut and Avdiyivka regions. This continues to make other sectors undermanned and under armed. The old adage “the best defense is an offense” is only good when you have a good offense - and Russia does not have a good offensive in those areas. Russia is sitting 4th down and 50 and will soon have to turn the ball over to the Ukrainians. They have no hail mary’s left.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Vice-chairman of the pro-Russian Shor party Marina Tauber was detained in Moldova, the prosecutor’s office reports.
Syria -
The so-called leader of ISIS, Abu Hussein al-Qurayshi, was neutralised yesterday in Syria in an operation carried out by Turkish intelligence (MİT) according to President Erdoğan.
According to field sources in Jinderes, the clashes that broke out in the town last night took place during the arrest of a senior ISIS leader. The suspected ISIS leader blew himself up at the end of the clash.
Turkey -
See Syria above. This is important to Erdoğan’s presidential campaign to over come health concerns and to depict him as a man of action.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Situation in Sudan is continuing to decay. US is struggling late to the game to get civilians out by ground to a Red Sea port.
Black Swans
New report by the USGS indicates that the costs from earthquakes in the state could grow something like 150% from six years ago. Along with the report comes more “the big one is coming” concerns because there are quakes along the San Andreas system.
Let me put some thing straight. If the Big One hits as modeled, costs will be massive. Is it coming – yes, not if but when. Paleoseismological studies are pretty clear that big ones have happened regularly (geologically speaking ) in the past and the tectonic setting hasn’t changed to reduce that threat. To any Freeper in quake country – better think seriously about preparing for the big one as it has been quite a while since any significant quakes have hit the area and the collective memory of the impacts from such have drifted away into complacency and normalcy bias.
Anatomically Modern Human
1 hour ago
I cheeklily asked ChatGPT whether a solar storm of the same level as the one in Charlemagne’s time might take down the world’s electrical grids, thus making it difficult for us to connect to AI chat services. Its response was fascinating. It got nervously chatty and began obfuscating and beating around the bush. Apparently, even machines don’t care to contemplate their own potential demise.
Chances are there will be no post tomorrow as I take a day off to get on top of a pesky sinus and cough, triggered by working too hard over the weekend with the warming temperatures.
Economy –
In a note to clients this morning, Goldman Sachs analysts say they believe the U.S. is still on track for a late July or early August technical default if a debt ceiling agreement isn’t made. They note the U.S. Treasury may have as little as $25-30 billion on the books in June.
Also, Yellen has stated that the US will run out of money by the first of June.
OBSERVATION - I think there is a good probability that the debt ceiling will be hit and a national shut down likely. 0bama forced it in his term, and biden is doubling down so far this time as well (though there are rumblings that biden et al didn’t expect the house to pass a plan, now forcing their hand). At just about every turn, democrats have taken the opportunity to damage our economy in an effort to force their communist / globalist agenda upon the ashes of what remains. They are willing to hurt the country to maintain power. June 1st is not that far away.
**
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a decision on another rate hike on Wednesday. Investment banks see the Fed hiking by .25-.50%, or 25 to 50 basis points.
OBSERVATION – Many economists are cringing on the prospect of a rise given the weakness of the current economy.
**
A Reuters poll of global economists says OPEC production cuts and rising Chinese demand will drive oil prices to $90/bbl by the end of the year.
OBSERVATION – Earlier it has been reported that $100/barrel was forecast. This may be blunted in that China’s demand may be restricted because the globe has gone into a recession and the market/demand for Chinese products severely limited.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CVN73 will return to Yokosuka in 2024 & relieve USS RONALD REAGAN CVN76 as the US Navy’s forward-based carrier in Japan. GW is in the final stages of a refueling overhaul. RR will transfer to Bremerton for overhaul at Puget Sound NSY
Wuhan Plandemic -
The court-mandated release of the documents related to what Pfizer and the FDA knew about the COVID-19 injections and when has unearthed evidence that they knew as early as April 2021 that the mRNA shots trigger adverse events (AEs) in breastfeeding babies.
OBSERVATION – More evidence of fraud, and though the govt won’t pursue it, private lawsuits against Pfizer/Moderna and the govt will gain traction with releases like this.
China –
The U.S. Department of (DoD) confirmed Monday it is following the path of a mystery high-altitude balloon crossing over American territory.
OBSERVATION – Most likely Chinese in origin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Analysts are noting that the Russian offensive operations are winding down. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure - primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NOTE – I’ll be rewriting the above assessment in the coming days to reflect the current situation better.
**
China, India, Brazil and Armenia to name a few have voted in favour of a UN resolution calling Russia’s attack on Ukraine an “aggression”
OBSERVATION - This is SHOCKING!!! Russia’s so-called supporters and allies putting the knife into its back. Much more a foot here than even I realized.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Over the last 14 months there have been at least 19 senior Russian military command changes.
NOTE – Russia’s command structure has been a sham for a while, now when rubber meets the road they can’t get the job done and putin faces failure in accepting status quo and Russian ‘everything is awesome’ words from the Kremlin/MoD.
The US estimates that Russia has had 20,000 of its troops killed and over 80,000 wounded in Bakhmut offensive ALONE over the past 5 months.
NOTE – These numbers are pretty close to other estimates from OSINT sources. This is equivalent to about half the initial invasion force.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce at Bakhmut but there seems to be a reduction in Russian attacks. . Ukrainian counter attacks are keeping resupply roads marginally open.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka continues to show a shift in effort to Russians pressing westward along the M04 highway, bypassing south the town. Action, however, appears to have slowed recently.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Russian probing attacks reported south of Kreminna.
Russian Territory –
3 Russian servicemen wounded as result of explosion of devices dropped from the drones at Sushany village of Klimove district and Valuets of Pochepsk district of Briansk region
Partisan Resistance ——
Deputy commander of occupational police in Zaporizhzhia region wounded as result of explosion in Melitopol
OUTLOOK –
No change in the conflict in the east. It does appear that Russian activity comes in surges.
The real indicator for the Ukraine offensive is the weather and more specifically, how dry the ground is. The weather forecast appears to indicate a drying trend over the next week. It will probably take a little longer than a week for conditions to enter the optimal zone for off road maneuver but it is evident that the offensive’s delay due to soil / mud is coming to an end.
There is a great deal of speculation by Russian milbloggers as to just where Ukraine will strike. There are two general location. 1) Bakhmut and 2) Zaporizhzhia. One must review the stated stratigic goal of Ukraine – recapture of Crimea. Only a Zaporizhzhia assault addresses that specifically. This axis would also sever the land ‘bridge’ to the region and if Ukraine and shut down the Kerch Strait bridge again, Crimean Russian forces will be in a desperate situation. Bakhmut at this time appears to lack this strategic goal. However, I think Ukraine may well have plans up its sleeve to strike here in a supporting attack if they observe substantial Russian forces being pulled out to fight in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A real headache for Russian planners. As noted, Russian chain of command is in disarray – a feature Ukraine is well likely to exploit as well.
Russian force distribution is weighted toward Bakhmut and judging from the casualty estimates for the 5 month Russian offensive, it has taken its toll. The quality of the forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia are questionable.
One final observation – Ukraine has been very adept at surprises to gain a tactical advantage. Just like the Kharkiv – Kherson 1 – 2 punch last year.