FISH ON!!!

This will be fun. You brought your bedpan to a match you cannot win.

Full disclosure: I do not dismiss the magnitude of this future event - including to coastal areas, likely to occur LONG after my passing - but merely the hyped BS promulgated by money-grubbing bureaucrats and suckers (check your mirror).

You're citing sources from the internet like a teenager hot-posting to social media.

Regardless that you're acting like an ignoramus freshman at CalState, you were clearly never involved in emergency management in the PNW.

I was.

You're just an armchair quarterback operating from his mother's basement or, at a minimum, harbor no credibility whatsoever about PNW geologic events.

Let me repeat for others:

Evidenced by your sourcing, you have no credibility whatsoever on geologic events.

Goldfinger is an idiot and IS, in fact, one of Kathryn Schulz's sources for her ridiculous 2015 piece. It was a bureaucrat - a FEMA official, Kenneth Murphy, a bureaucrat with NO credentials in seismology and merely a BS Science in Management & Communications - who was the source of your ignorance:

The Really Big One

Kenneth Murphy, who directs fema’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

Your source of ignorance also projects the fraudulent climate change in her other works.

How's that grab you? Some Conservative. /s

Oregon is populated by academia-sourced idiots. True Conservatives here at FR do NOT cite academia unless out of bias. Or ignorance. Or cranial-rectal inversion.

I digress.

Emergency management at the highest levels are both realists and hypocrites befitting the liberal climate of government in Oregon & Washington. Though they openly mock the idiocy of Schulz, there ARE some true scientists working here and due to the fact that they know they can't keep projecting the FRAUD of a 'MAG 9' impact upon populated inland areas of the PNW NOT impacted by tsunami, they published this merely a few weeks ago:

New study predicts less damage than previously expected to bridges in Western Washington following a M9 earthquake

Translated: They acknowledge that the shaking inland will be FAR LESS DESTRUCTIVE than state officials proclaim with their scare headlines (which, ironically, also lack any meaningful actions whatsoever, including - but not limited to - a glaring lack of building code updates to match or exceed that of earthquake-prone areas of CA).

Better, your beloved USGS published this shakemap of the PNW in regards to M 9.3 Scenario Earthquake - Cascadia Megathrust:

Ironically, it does NOT project 9-9.3 shaking anywhere ashore.

Gee...I wonder why? /s

Also - ironically - it looks a LOT like the Tohoku shake map:

Ignorance (yours) aside, the geology of Japan and western Oregon are remarkably similar (barring the inevitable liquefaction zones and obvious sedimentary formations). Ironically, Japan's shaking was reduced significantly on the western side of its mountainous ranges; the Cascade Range presents a geologic barrier to a subduction event, but that's another discussion altogether (though not with knuckleheads).

The 'experts' now forecast greater damage to Seattle from a rupture of the local Seattle Fault.

Batter up, bat-boy.

Normally it would be fun to engage further in a battle of wits, however it is unfair since you are unarmed. Most of your last is nothing but projection, ad hominem and just poor reading and scientific comprehension.

The simple fact that the Cascadia subduction zone is a known mag 9 feature, with demonstrable periodic recurrence is pretty much not up for argument - and money grubbing bureaucrats have no say over the matter - its science. BTW - your first failure in reading comprehension is that I didn’t put a definitive time line to the next quake - only that it is coming and the recurrence intervals have wide error bars. But why ruin your rant on just that.

Your involvement in emergency management in PNW must have been to bring the coffee as you don’t understand your poorly produced ‘citation’ Or you were just another one of those greedy bureaucrats.

A USGS scientist is an idiot - with no supporting background on how technically he is wrong - right got it. My career involved working with a number of USGS geologist/seismologists and paleoseismologists - and they have been top quality scientists. Nope, you don’t get a USGS paleoseismologist position by being an idiot - those are highly competitive positions. but then its easier for you to character assassinate when you can’t counter their views any other way.

Oh and now you progress to the ‘true scotsman’ fallacy only renaming it true conservatives.

Sadly, science isn’t a conservative issue alone, but in this field it must stand on the facts and evidence. Contrary to your bleat, I didn’t cite anyone but my own observations based on multiple studies and reports I’ve read over the course of my career over the years - so much for your straw man on that one. Even your post of the projected shake map supports me. But leave it to self-proclaimed debunkers like yourself to debunk yourself in the process.

Lets see - “Ironically, it does NOT project 9-9.3 shaking anywhere ashore.”
The contour version of the same figure shows level VIII shaking eastward to (gasp) the general trend of I-5. In my original post I clearly stated things will be bad west of I-5 - I never made the controversial ‘citation’ you claim I did. Try common sense that if level VIII is present as far east as I-5, its gonna be a lot worse the closer to the epicenter (common sense). You post a picture with no link to the contouring methodology or assumptions - ‘hot posting’ eh? lets just throw a picture up and ignore those key features in how it was created. Since it depicts the majority of the potential damage to the west of I-5 my observation is supported by your very own post.

In that alone it doesn’t properly match the japanese map. but deeper comparison would ruin your bleat as well. You like to compare apples to oranges on this subject - with your self proclaimed trained eye.

” the Cascade Range presents a geologic barrier to a subduction event,”
BTW - the Cascade mountains are there BECAUSE of subduction of the plate, but then this is just more evidence of geologic ignorance and inability to be concise on display. You wouldn’t get past undergraduate structural and plate tectonic geology courses with that assessment. Sad.
Oh and if the Cascades are such a ‘barrier’ you may have to wonder why a potential 9 quake will be felt as far east as at least most of Idaho? That’s from your map too. SMH

BTW - The Seattle Fault has been known for a while as well - but I guess you want to wrap that up in those money grubbing bureaucrats as well.

SMH - your analysis of the regional geology is so miserable on the whole it is worthless to continue any further discussions. Remarkable (or perhaps not so remarkable) is your reading comprehansion skills in regards to what I actually posted - and since you are lacking even in that elementary skill it is further worthless to continue. Go off and enjoy your bubble, you are not worth any further responses.

Congrats: You doubled down. Got some sand. But it doesn't change the fact that you're up there with Goldfinger and the best of you.

You cited Schulz. You earned it. You deserve it. AND you doubled down on it, too. There is no coming back from such idiocy. Right up there with defending 'climate change'. There is also no debating facts with idiots, so enjoy your breakfast.

You represent what I hate and, oddly, you align with many on the left here. GFY.

Buckling down for the cold as forecasters are suggesting that by tomorrow morning my home town could be seeing temperatures as low as -37 to -41 range. Add wind chills down to -60 in places (exposed skin freezes in less than 10 minutes) and wee doggies. Fire roaring in the stove to assist the furnace with this craziness. In the past this weather would separate the Montanans from the liberal locusts and send them packing to warmer climes. However, with the current economy and housing / mortgage dumpster fire, they are stuck and are going to have to toughen up fast.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Invasion of Illegals –

The U.S. acknowledged in its filing to the Supreme Court that the end of Title 42 will likely lead to “disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings” but asked the court to reject efforts by a group of conservative leaning states to keep the asylum limits in place.

OBSERVATION – biden et al seem to be seriously flip-flopping on the Title 42 issue. It is as if they’ve just had an “oh crap” moment realizing the catastrophe that is building on the border.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

An 8th round of Twitter Files were released on Tuesday, with a specific focus on Twitter’s role in directly assisting the US military’s influence operations. The files were broken down by journalist Lee Fang, who titled them “How Twitter Quietly Aided the Pentagon’s Covert Online PsyOp Campaign.”

“Despite promises to shut down covert state-run propaganda networks, Twitter docs show that the social media giant directly assisted the U.S. military’s influence operations,” Fang said.

OBSERVATION – Can any one be surprised at this stage? Still in the wings are the Fauci/wuhan drops.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The senate passed the 1.7 Trillion omnibus CR thru Sept 2023 in its first vote – eliminating the filibuster by 10 votes. Future votes are simple majority.

OBSERVATION - McConnel just shafted the incoming republicans in the house the opportunity to influence the bill. Sorry to say, the govt corruption is become almost unfathomable at this stage.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will address Congress on Wednesday evening. Pelosi is making a big to-do about it.

China –

Not to forget, China continues to daily fly planes and sail ships into Taiwan’s defense zone.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********
Logistics –
- Russia has reportedly launched approximately 508 Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian targets since September, based on data released by Ukrainian government officials.

- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 8500 vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine 300 days ago. Of that 1580 tanks have been lost, this is equivalent to about 42% of its tanks in active service. These are only visually confirmed losses.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukraine is preparing additional measures to protect the Rivne NPP due to the risk of an open invasion from Belarus. This region is in the northwestern portion of the nation opposite from where many Belarus/Russia training exercises have been taking place.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Action seems to have picked up a little in the standard areas I’ve been noting for weeks now. Updated analysis indicates that Russia may have finally reached the outskirts of Bahkmut – a feat that required over 4 months to achieve. However, now its developing into urban combat – a defense that Ukraine has perfected.
Most of Russia’s available artillery support was in those areas as well, with widely scattered artillery fire elsewhere along the

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Central Donetsk was hit again by Ukrainian artillery fires

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
NSR

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
An electrical substation was attacked by a drone in Trubchevsk of Briansk region

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same as combat is mainly being waged on foot given that the mud inhibits pretty much anything else.

More analysis on the potential Russian - Belarus attack options. Some OSINT analysts are indicating that Russia may be gradually building its forces in Belarus beyond those mobilized conscripts sent there for training. I’ve noted the reported presence of the 1sts Guards Tank Army and that it may be there to form the shell of a reconstituted unit.

Independent Belarusian sources continue to report growing Russian mechanized forces in Belarus. With about 30 Russian T-80 tanks were reportedly deployed to Belarus around December 20. These elements are far too little for a meaningfull offensive. The 1st GTA originally had something like 500-800 tanks alone.

Again, no imminent attack from Belarus, but still needs close monitoring.

Iran –

Observers are noting a slowly diminishing protest turnout since the regime intensified its protest crackdown in mid-November 2022. The regime issued its first death sentence on November 13 and deployed the IRGC Ground Forces in Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces beginning on November 19. These escalations combined with the colder weather, mass arrests, and possible disorganization among protester coordinators may have led to the declining turnout over the past month. This reduced protest activity does not, however, indicate the end of the anti-regime movement.

Netblocks reports that internet service disruption lasted for two days in Iranian Kurdistan.

OBSERVATION - McConnel just shafted the incoming republicans in the house the opportunity to influence the bill. Sorry to say, the govt corruption is become almost unfathomable at this stage.

McConnell is a real piece of shit. He's not even a RINO, not when he works against the interests of the Republican party,

He works against ALL Americans.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Tuesday that new heavy truck makers will have to cut nitrogen oxide emissions by more than 80 percent, the latest move in an effort toward implementing the Biden administration’s “Clean Truck Plan.”
The new standards will go into effect from 2027.
Specifically, nitrogen oxide emissions from new semis and other heavy trucks will be limited to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour. The current standard is 200 milligrams, the EPA said.
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents independent truck drivers, said the new rule will effectively push truck owners to stay with older, less-efficient vehicles as they will no longer be able to afford new ones.

OBSERVATION- This is one of many tactics the govt is using to eventually force the trucking industry into electric trucks. I don’t know if these regulation changes will be challenged as another overreach by the EPA as have other green regulations have. But all point to similar regulations developing throughout the globe to force zero emissions standards on all of us, whether we like it or not.

Going back to a theme of the WEF being the reduction of the earth’s population, its Canadian test bed has come out with an activity book is pure propaganda aimed at children to normalize medically assisted suicide.

The activity booklet uses cartoon illustrations and a child-friendly font is not meant to push children to choose suicide, but it does normalize the process of medically-assisted suicide in a country that has government-run healthcare. The aim of the booklet is to help children understand the process when someone that they love has chosen assisted suicide.

Created by Canadian Virtual Hospice, the booklet titled “The Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) Activity Book!” claims to have been created for young people who have someone in their life who may have MAiD.

The first few pages explain that MAiD is the use of “medicines” are used to “help someone with their death.” It also explains that this is a personal choice and that you probably shouldn’t bother to try to convince the person to live because they’ve likely thought about it for a long time already.

OBSERVATION – This is a further move toward physician assisted suicide targeting children.

Wuhan virus –

See China for their latest

Economy –

According to Texas A&M Agrilife economist David Anderson, the U.S. is on pace to produce a record 28 billion pounds of beef this year, but the overall U.S. cow herd will see a 3% reduction next year. Anderson said that production is up this year due to drought and increased input costs spurring the culling of beef herds.

OBSERVATION – While this may sound good on the front end, it reflects continuing economic issues for ranchers from drought, high feed costs and high fuel prices. If these factors turn around, it will still take a couple years to restore the herd sizes and likely result in some shortages – once again raising prices.

Sales of existing homes fell 7.7% in November compared with October, according to the National Association of Realtors. The seasonally adjusted annualized pace was 4.09 million units. That is weaker than the 4.17 million units housing analysts had predicted, and it was a much deeper fall than usual monthly declines.

Sales were down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines. That was the weakest pace since November 2010, with the exception of May 2020, when sales fell sharply, albeit briefly, during the early days of the Covid pandemic. In November 2010, the nation was mired in the great recession as well as a foreclosure crisis.

OBSERVATION – The housing market was one of the first sectors of the economy to be hit as a result of the Fed’s raising of the prime rate. Increasing weakness in this market can be viewed as a forecaster of what to expect from the rest of the economy in the months to come. If this holds, then next year is not looking too good.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Administration District for Defense (PADD) 1, which stores petroleum products for the East Coast, is holding just over 25 million barrels of distillate fuel oil. PADD 1 distillate fuel oil stocks are currently at their lowest level for this time of year since 1981.

OBSERVATION – This shortage is affecting supplies/prices across the country. Here in the Redoubt, gasoline prices have steadily dropped, while diesel has remained stubbornly high.

Invasion of Illegals –

Situation in El Paso Texas is becoming critical. Migrants have taken over the streets of El Paso - where food banks are just days from running dry - after making last-ditch border dashes in anticipation of Title 42 limits being lifted. More than 400 National Guard troops and state policer were deployed Tuesday before the policy’s expected end, causing dozens more asylum seekers to make a break for the border to avoid clashes.

Officials said over the weekend 2,500 migrants were arriving in El Paso daily, a figure that could rise to ‘4,000, 5,000, maybe 6,000.’ Many believe that number could be even higher when Title 42 ends, with Axios reporting 14,000 daily crossings could occur.

New fencing at the Rio Grande River bank was also erected to stop migrants from crossing with pandemic-era expulsion policy Title 42 just hours away from ending.

The show of force apparently had the intended effect. Migrants quickly began moving away from the area. The remaining stragglers were described by local reporters as being “a small group.”

OBSERVATION – This scene will replay in dozens of other border cities when Title 42 eventurally gets turned off (doubtful that the USSC stay will last long).

In an agreement reached Wednesday with the federal government, Ducey’s administration said it will “remove all previously installed shipping containers and associated equipment, materials, vehicles, and other objects from the United States’ properties on National Forest System lands within the Coronado National Forest”.

OBSERVATION - Part of the push back was that the barriers were blocking critical wildlife migration routes and that illegals by pass the region because it is too rough anyway. To them it was more important for jaguars to cross the border than it was to prevent two legged predators from the same.

Tennessee’s two Republican senators and Gov. Bill Lee are demanding a response from Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on its plans to transport illegal immigrants from New Orleans to the state in a letter sent on Tuesday.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) posted her frustration with the agency’s lack of transparency, stating “ICE can respond to media requests about trafficking illegal immigrants to Tennessee, but won’t get back to us with information about who they are dropping off in our state.”
However, Blackburn said on Fox News Wednesday the plan is to have “50 at a time” and “at least two buses, maybe more, every single week” into Tennessee.

The governor’s office said notices from the Biden administration on Monday are the first time federal officials have notified the state of plans to relocate “single adult detainees into Tennessee,” adding they have received no further details.

OBSERVATION – More and more it becomes apparent that biden is shipping these illegals into predominantly red areas of the country. Taking a deep dive into the conspiracy – at some future time these illegals will be allowed or caused to support leftist violence against conservatives in these area. One thing that was made clear during the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020, when the black bloc tried to bus into rural, red areas, the were immediately confronted by no-nonsense and well armed Americans. One repeating observation is that many of these “single adult detainees” shipped inland are military-aged males. Importing them may well be a method to offset this advantage of red vs leftists.

Now, in an effort to keep Americans in the dark once the surge hits, a source not authorized to speak to the press told Brietbart Media that the Department of Homeland Security has decided to brush the issue under the rug by issuing a gag order to Custom and Border Protection managers, forbidding them from releasing the number of migrant apprehensions to the public without DHS approval.
The directive was issued on Monday and took immediate effect.

OBSERVATION - Tightening the control of the narrative, makes me wonder if the tsunami is going to be larger – in their view – than what we’ve been warned of so far.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The growth of the Stasi state FBI unbelievably is poised to increase as republicans sport a substantial funding increase for the agency – in the face of the revelations of gross corruption and anti-constitutional behavior revealed in the Twitter Files.

Vice President Kamala Harris said on Monday that she expects and “would require” social media companies to work with the Biden administration to prevent so-called misinformation and disinformation, and to “protect democracy.”

“When I see how social media is used in that way, it causes me a very deep level of concern,” Harris said. “So, what I would say about any social media site is this: I fully expect and would require that leaders in that sector cooperate and work with us who are concerned about national security, concerned about upholding and protecting our democracy, to do everything in their power to ensure that there is not a manipulation that is allowed or overlooked that is done with the intention of upending the security of our democracy and our nation.”

OBSERVATION – This is incredibly obtuse given how the govt directly censored 1st Amendment rights of citizens as revealed so far by the Twitter Files. Instead of “upholding and protecting our democracy”, biden and the deep state have done what they can to corrupt and destroy it.

IMHO, Orwellian govt censorship may be one of the key fractures along which future red/blue (govt) strife may develop along. It is unlikely that govt will stop at controlling speech on social media and will advance more into the public square in a more aggressive manner.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

FWW, fakebook put me in 24 hour time out because I shared a NY Post article on hunter biden. Cowards, and of course their system permits no real recourse. Gotta cover hunter’s rear end and protect the big guy.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY –

The House Ways and Means Committee voted Tuesday to release its review of former President Donald Trump’s tax returns and is preparing to release the returns publicly this week.

OBSERVATION – Democrats exerting another attack on Trump by sheer political force. There is no justification for the release other than a smear. The disastrous republican midterms have given the dems cover for more and more outrageous attack knowing the next election is two years away and that they think they have the support of the country now.

Kari Lake’s trial against Maricopa county has the goods on the fraudulent results there. Just from the first day or so it has been documented that at least 42% of the printed forms were apparently altered in size to as to be rejected by the scanning machines. That as well as clear and deliberate breaking of chain of custody laws and callousness of election officials to resolve those problems are piling up on the county and eventuall AZSOS hobbs. This is the first real trial that has been ‘permitted’ to allow voting irregularities and probable voter fraud to go forward and so far Lake has the goods on the county. If the results of Maricopa county are tossed – we are entering new terrain as how will the votes lost in the heavily republican county be addressed.

China –

Hospitals in China appear to be filling up amid concerns about a fresh Covid-19 wave hitting the country, the World Health Organization (WHO) says. China figures show no-one died of Covid on Wednesday but there is scepticism about the disease’s real impact.
In recent days hospitals in Beijing and other cities have been filling up as the latest Covid surge hits China.

Since 2020, China has imposed strict health restrictions as part of its zero Covid policy.
But, the government ended most of those measures two weeks ago after landmark protests against the strict controls.

Speaking during a weekly news conference in Geneva WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he is “very concerned over the evolving situation in China”.
He appealed for specific data on disease severity, hospital admissions and intensive care requirements.

OBSERVATION – China tightly controls news on this topic. It is assumed it is wuhan related, but could also be a variety of this years flu bug as well. Don’t expect detailed info coming out of china any time soon.

China is holding joint naval exercises with Russia in the East China Sea this week. According to an announcement by China’s Eastern Theater Command, the exercises are being held off the coast of Zhejiang province south of Shanghai and will last through next week.

OBSERVATION – This is another of what appears to be an expanding continuation of exercises between the two countries. The most important part of these exercises is developing the ability to communicate and coordinate actions between the two forces.

North/South Korea –

In an official statement from North Korea’s Foreign Ministry Tuesday, a ministry spokesman said North Korea would take a “resolute and decisive military step” against Japan over its adoption of a new national security strategy. Japan’s new national security strategy doubles defense spending and includes heavy counter-strike capabilities from long-range missiles and naval forces. The statement accused Japan’s leaders of trying to turn the country into an “offensive military giant.”

OBSERVATION - This is common war of words coming out of NK. In this instance, NK may be realizing that its aggressive military posture against the US has resulted in other regional powers building up to counter NK military threats. Japan’s build up is currently more directed against China – the greater threat – and lesser so towards NK.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********
In his speech to defense chiefs in Moscow today, Putin made a series of rare and frank concessions about his botched invasion, admitting there were ‘problems’ with his mobilization and acknowledging vague ‘criticism’ of his military strategy.

But to reverse his fortunes, the president will spend ‘whatever it takes’ on the military, ‘improve the combat readiness of our nuclear triad’ and increase his troop numbers from 1.15million to 1.5million.

He said the country’s military should learn lessons and modernize based on its experiences in Ukraine and special emphasis will go to developing his country’s nuclear forces, which he described as ‘the main guarantee of Russia’s sovereignty’.

Defense minister Sergei Shoigu also declared plans to form new military units in western Russia to, as Kremlin chiefs prepared for a new phase in the war which is entering its tenth month.

In response to Zelensky’s visit to the US, the Kremlin said that nothing good would come from from it and that Russia saw no chance of peace talks with Kyiv.

In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that continued Western arms supplies to Ukraine would lead to a “deepening” of the conflict - something which could backfire on Kyiv, he warned.
“The supply of weapons continues and the range of supplied weapons is expanding. All of this, of course, leads to an aggravation of the conflict. This does not bode well for Ukraine,” Peskov said.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Fighters from Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group have ballooned from 1,000 to nearly 20,000 in Ukraine, British government officials say, a sign of Russia’s growing reliance on the military contractor in support of its invasion. Wagner’s inflated ranks are linked to its targeted recruitment of convicts in Russian prisons. UK officials say open source estimates suggest that the numbers of convicts in Russian prisons fell by over 23,000 in the two months leading up to November 2022 - the period in which it was recruiting.
UK officials say there’s been a pivot from quality to quantity. In the past, Wagner was believed to recruit mostly experienced former soldiers - including from Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, and ex-special forces.
Wagner’s group field commander, Lt Col Dmitry Utkin, was an officer in the GRU’s Spetsnaz (special ops). But with the influx of prisoners and others of lesser caliber to draw upon, UK officials say that Wagner is now “far from an elite force”.

- Minister Shoigu proposed the following: changing the conscription age range to 21-30 years old, increasing armed forces personnel strength by 30% (350,000), and increasing professional soldiers by 33% (174,000).

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Zelensky spoke to congress and biden yesterday in a bid to maintain support for the fight with Russia. Pelosi referred to him as a modern ‘Churchill’. Russia was not too happy with the trip. See their response under Russia above.

More of the standard areas of combat – Savatove, Bakhmut and Donetsk. Artillery seemed to be focused along this line with widely scattered attacks elsewhere.

It was revealed yesterday that Ukraine targeted former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin at a party was wounded as result of shelling in Donetsk. Injured along with Rogozin was the Prime Minister of the Donetsk Republic, Vitaly Khotsenko. The attack reportedly used precision-guided artillery or HIMARS and struck the hotel in which the two men were staying – suggesting the attack was directed by specific intelligence and meant to take out the two high-profile leadership figures.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
There appear to be an increase in Russian artillery attacks along the border east – northeast of Kharkiv city. Actual intensity is hard to judge and is more likely harassing fires.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
NSR

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
Ukraine continues to strike Russian border towns with explosions being reported in Schebekino district of Belgorod region overnight.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Activity continues to be relatively light across the whole LOC with battles continuing in the same locations resulting in little change in the front.

More eyebrows continue to be raised over the potential Russian build up in Bellarus and will it be enough by early next year to support an attack either towards Kyiv or western Ukraine as part of Russia’s reportedly planned winter offensive. Another try towards Kyiv would be foolish in many ways, but could tie up resources needed by Ukraine to deal with an offensive in the Donbas. See Belarus below for more discussion.

Belarus -

On Dec 21st, Belarus officials set travel restrictions for the regions bordering Ukraine. The government said on its website it would “temporarily restrict entry, temporary stay and movement in the border zone within the Loevsky, Braginsky and Khoiniki districts of the Gomel region”. This is the area from where Russia launched its previous strike on Kyiv at the beginning of the conflict.

OBSERVATION - There is some speculation that the restrictions may be due to Russian and Belarusian forces moving into assembly areas in advance of an anticipated winter offensive. While many OSINT analysts and observers note that at this time Russia and Belarus lack the forces necessary for another try at Kyiv, this closure warrants close monitoring to see if Russian/Belarus forces continue to filter into the area in an attempt to try to fly under the radar so to speak in preparation of a new offensive from the north.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbian Defense Minister Milos Vucevic called on the International NATO mission in Kosovo and Metohija (KFOR) to stop Kosovar violence and terror against Serbs. Last week, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic asked NATO to approve up to 1000 Serbian troops and police to deploy to Kosovo.

OBSERVATION – These requests border on the Serbs prestaging themselves and the victims in this dispute and hopefully gaining some international support. However, since the Serbs are appealing to NATO, it seems there is a degree of hesitancy in their executing any plan on their own, having to seek NATO permission. So far the KFOR presence is deterring the Serbs from outright attacks.

Hundreds of Serbs have gathered in Rudare to protest against Kosovo government on the 13th day of barricades in Kosovo north roads.

OBSERVATION – Though Serbia has been undergoing a substantial military modernization effort and aggression towards Kosovo a spin off on its own (as it refuses to recognize the country), many are keeping a close eye on this flashpoint as a potential way to partially neutralize NATOs support to Ukraine.
Worst case scenario developing is that Serbia will launch some sort of military campaign into N Kosovo about the same time Russia launches what ever the form of its winter offensive into Ukraine develops into.

Pakistan –

On top of all the internal political and economic woes Pakistan is experiencing, terror operations from the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) forces are on the rise. TTP leaders ordered the resumption of hostilities against the government in Islamabad on 28 November. The group occupies Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas in Waziristan. The TTP was nominally aligned with Al Qaeda in the past and has sympathetic followers within the Pakistani government.

Israel –

After weeks of negotiations within his coalition Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu called President Isaac Herzog and informs him of his success in forming a government. The new government seen as the most right-wing in Israel’s history and time will tell if it will be stable or if Israel will be tossed into another round or parliamentary elections.

OBSERVATION - Because of the rising instability of the region caused by iran and increasingly hostile biden administration policies, a longer term and more stable Israeli government is necessary. Netanyahu’s long terms as PM move a long ways towards some stability. What may cause things to crash are the ultra conservative parties he has in his coalition that may cause more friction with Palestinians in the west bank – even more than the current round of activity.

Iran –

Protests continue in the predominantly Kurdish region in northwestern Iran. The regime’s increasing harsh response appears to be forcing a pull back of protests in other regions.

Central / South America General-

The Peruvian government expelled the Mexican Ambassador to Peru following Mexico’s decision to grant asylum to the family of ousted Peruvian President Pedro Castillo. Castillo’s wife and two children are reportedly hiding out in the Mexican embassy in Lima as Castillo’s wife faces criminal charges of corruption.

OBSERVATION – Mexico recently announced support for Castillo and this is a natural expression of that support.

Misc of Note –

CVS and Walgreens, the two largest drugstores in the United States, have placed purchase limits on over-the-counter (OTC) children’s fever-reducing and pain-relieving medications. Walgreens said retailers are experiencing supplier fulfillment challenges due to increased demand for the medications.

OBSERVATION – As noted in previous posts, the nation wide shortage is becoming more critical and purchase limits have finally had to come out like they did (and locally continue) for baby formula.

Named Winter Storm Elliott by the Weather Channel, the arctic blast is expected to deliver the coldest Christmas to the Midwest since the late 1980s, according to forecasts cited by US media. The NWS has called it a once-in-a-generation winter weather event, especially as the storm reaches the Great Lakes region, where its pressure is expected to reach the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. As the storm develops, meteorologists anticipate it will turn into a “bomb cyclone”.

The developing storm is hitting at the front end of the start of a busy holiday travel period – extremely dangerous conditions to drive in and a plethora of cancelled flights.

OBSERVATION – Here in my corner of the Redoubt, the continental divide to our immediate east managed to deflect most of the intensity and cold away. Even with that I’m looking at my weather station this morning with a current low of -36 degrees (and still dropping). I’ve searched out lows for the state in the 1959-1983 time frame (before I left for military service and later to work out of state) to see if I had faced any similar lows – so far this is the coldest I’ve experienced and man does it make your face (and any other exposed skin) hurt – and that is before wind chill is added in. Wood stove is glowing and yet the furnace is having to still kick in.

Nationally, there are concerns that it will hit Texas like previous storms and endanger the grid. Other concerns are for the citrus crops in the south as this air mass is suppose to reach all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. The next few days may reveal the extent of damage.

FWIW, the storm named “Elliott” is so far living up to its Scottish heritage as being a Border Reaver and “Who dare mess with me” (The Elliott Clan is my adopted clan via Mrs Godzilla and I wear its tartan proudly)

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SUMMARY –

The WHO has decided to label all vaccine skeptics as a “major killing force” in the world and anti-science.
“Anti-vaccine activism, which I actually call anti-science aggression, has now become a major killing force globally.” -
Peter Hotez, Professor and Dean at Texas Childrens hospital and Chair in Tropical Pediatrics

OBSERVATION – By now it is apparent that the wuhan jab is fast becoming as lethal as the virus itself. By attacking honest, independent research (and peer reviewed at that) as well as countries like Denmark that ceased pushing the jab on those under 50 because of the lethal reaction just exposes the hypocrisy of the WHO and cements its place in the GGR realm of dictating global medical policy via cancelling and vilifying those who don’t accept the narrative.

Wuhan virus –

The Florida Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a grand jury requested by Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to investigate COVID-19 manufacturers could proceed.

OBSERVATION – Key issue here once again is the demonstration of fraud by Pfizer and Moderna regarding the safety claims of their so called vaccines. In the emergency authorization, these companies have been able to hide behind a fig leaf of protection from lawsuits – with a conviction of deliberate fraud that fig leave disappears, and they are fully open to civil (and potentially criminal – though the DoJ won’t follow up on it) lawsuits. It would also throw a monkey wrench it continued ‘vaccination’ pushes for additional ‘boosters’ as well as their attempts to create other mRNA products for other diseases.

Economy –

According to Bloomberg, citing an ag report via forecaster Maxar, winter wheat fields across southwest Kansas, northwest Texas, and Oklahoma lack snow cover, increasing the incidence of winter kill. Snow cover on fields insulates the wheat and protects crops from cold.

“Wheat will be at risk of winter kill in areas lacking adequate snow cover – most notably in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Commodity Weather Group warns that 20% of the national winter #wheat acreage will be susceptible to winter kill this week, including 45% of the hard red winter wheat crop, but that could rise to 30% of national crop in a worst-case scenario if snowfall fails further east.

OBSERVATION – Wheat production is still trying to recover from all the other hits it took during the last growing season. These are worse case scenarios but the concerns are very real. Losses would ensure continued high prices and inflation given the many items wheat is necessary like bread, pasta and other food products.

Inflation fell to a 5.5% annual rate in November, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. Bureau of Economic Analysis say it is a sign that inflationary pressures are abating in the face of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to slow economywide spending by hiking interest rates. Nevertheless, inflation is running much hotter than the central bank’s target and dinging household purchasing power.
Core PCE inflation, a measure of inflation that strips out energy and food prices and is generally less volatile, is clocking in at a 4.7% year-over-year rate.

OBSERVATION – Given that the feds over estimated job creation by one million just before the 2022 midterms give me pause to accept much of what they are saying concerning inflation and its trends. I’ll hold this out at arms length for now.

U.S. total new vehicle retail sales are expected to decline in December as high vehicle prices and rising borrowing costs pushed consumers to cut back spending, a report from industry consultants J.D. Power-LMC Automotive showed on Wednesday.
The average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan in December was $718, up $47 from a year ago, per the report.

OBSERVATION – Not unexpected – why buy a $60+K car/truck at outrageous interest rates. Theres no way on God’s green earth I could afford that level of payment.

The probability of a downturn in 2023 climbed to 70% in December, according to a Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, up from 65% in November. The poll, conducted between Dec. 12-16, surveyed 38 economists.

“The U.S. economy will likely fall into a recession over the next year if it is not already in one,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “The silver lining is that the mismatches between supply and demand that have fueled historically high inflation should be much less of a problem by a year from now.”
Officials also indicated that economic growth will slow sharply next year and that unemployment will march substantially higher to a rate of 4.6% as rate hikes bring the U.S. to the brink of a recession. The Fed expects the jobless rate to remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs.

OBSERVATION – Most certainly the “mismatches” will narrow simply because businesses will be shutting down.
This also indicates that economic malaise will continue for an extended period of time.

Invasion of Illegals –

The Biden administration expanded the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program after taking office in 2021, doubling the number of recipients from just over 400,000 to over 900,000. Democratic lawmakers and advocates are pushing the administration to expand the program further in 2023. According to Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the administration could expand the TPS program without congressional approval. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Now that the barn doors of our border have been left open, the next thing for the regime is to some how ‘legitimize’ keeping the illegals here. TPS as well as DACA are some of the tools that permit them to work around our laws. With such a volume, even court rulings against these expansions if against biden probably will never be enforced given the depth of corruption of the swamp.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden delivered a Christmas address on Thursday but did not speak the name of “Jesus” or “Christ.”

Some opine that in doing so he would have burst into flames. . .

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY – It is readily apparent that the GOP in the senate has turned from red to purple with 18 senators voting with the democrats to pass the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion dollar CR through the end of FY 2023. For the American this signals a new round of capitulation to the leftists in congress and serves to negate what little lead they have in the House as there are eGOP RINOS infesting that part as well.

It looks like the democrat release of Trump’s tax returns is turning out to be a big nothing burger. Many would love to see a similar rectal examination of those in congress (on BOTH sides of the aisle).

Lake’s lawsuit against Maricopa county and the plethora of illegal (yes, they failed to follow clearly stated state law) and highly questionable ethically other actions has made its closing arguments. In his closing argument , the Maricopa county attorney blamed all the problems on the Lake campaign’s emphasis to show up and vote in person on election day. Basically it’s the voters fault stating - “you reap what you sow,” meaning that Lake’s campaign lost because of strategy, not because of a printer malfunction error that rendered the ballots incapable of being machine read, long lines that led to voters being unable to vote, or other malignantly incompetent actions on behalf of Maricopa County officials.

BTW, the Maricopa attorney is Thomas Liddy, the son of G. Gordon Liddy, one of the main characters in Watergate.

OBSERVATION – One of the biggest admissions from Maricopa election officals was the fact that printer settings were changed on the day of the election – an act that didn’t occur in any other precinct.

China –

Philippine ministry of defense ordered the military to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea after Chinese naval militia was caught operating close to a strategic Philippine-held Spratly Islands. The Chinese naval militia was reportedly conducting dredging and construction operations on four uninhabited reefs and shoals. Beijing denied the claims and dismissed the accusations as “unfounded.”

OBSERVATION – China has been conducting this dredging and building operations in the fuzzy claimed areas of the South China Sea for a good decade now and is using its muscle to continue the expansion to solidify its claims on the region.

39 Chinese aircraft trespassed into its claimed air defense zone yesterday. This is a very high number and indicates an increase in harassing flights. Thursday’s incursion involved four H-6 bombers, 21 fighters jets and support aircraft.

North/South Korea –

Seoul said Pyongyang launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. The latest show of force came days after US-South Korea drills in the region and amid heightened tensions. The latest launch comes just days after US-South Korea military drills included flying nuclear-capable bombers near the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea views such military exercises as an invasion rehearsal.

OBSERVATION - NK continuing annoy SK (and the US to a degree) with these launches. While they don’t pose an immediate threat, the do give NK practice and opportunities to test refinements. I remember when nearly all NK’s missiles exploded on the launch pad or shortly after liftoff. Those days are long gone.

Japanese media as well as other sources reported that North Korea had shipped artillery shells and other munitions to Russia last month.
The claims sparked further tensions, with North Korea denying the allegations and calling them “groundless.”

OBSERVATION – In a way of speaking, NK may be correct. Latest intel suggests that the shipments were directed towards Wagner Group Mercenaries and not ‘technically’ to Russia as WG is an independent entity.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

The Russian Federation warns Greece about the consequences if Athens decides to transfer the Russian S-300 systems to Ukraine, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

A fire broke out yesterday onboard the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been undergoing a major overhaul in the country’s northwestern Murmansk region for more than four years, and which was just moved into a new and improvised drydock earlier this year. This is not the first incident of its kind on the flattop in the course of this work, with another blaze having broken out on the ship in 2019. The vessel had also suffered another fire while anchored off Turkey in 2009, which led to the death of a member of the crew.

According to Russian media, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov invited additional countries to the “West 2023 maneuvers” and Union Shield 2023. This exercise is supposed to run every four years, and last occurred in 2021. Historically, only Belarus and Russia took part in Zapad and Union Shield exercises in September. Since the time frame has been condensed from four to two years, some are raising concern that this may serve as a cover for a Russian/Belarus invasion.

Logistics –
- Iran is working to tighten its defense relationship with Russia and to continue to supply it with advanced weaponry, Mossad chief David Barnea warned on Thursday. “We warn against Iran’s future intentions, which they are trying to keep secret, to deepen and expand the supply of advanced weapons to Russia, to expand the uranium enrichment project and to intensify their attacks against friendly Muslim countries in the region,”

- NK is reportedly sending munitions to Wagner Group.

Economic Impact –
- According to a Reuters report, Russia intends to start buying China’s yuan as a foreign exchange reserve beginning in 2023. Moscow is set to accelerate de-dollarization in an effort to reduce its dependency on Western finance and mitigate Western sanctions over its war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Moves to go off the dollar are an attack on the dollar. China has been facilitating the move for other countries as well.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased along the eastern front from Svatove southward towards Donetsk, with associated increase in Russian artillery support.
Increasing attention given to Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea. Some have noted that in the past, such activity was a precursor to missile strikes. There is little concern that Russia is going to launch an amphibious attack. Currently, its amphibious ships are serving to shuttle material across the Azoz sea / Black Sea due to the closure of the Kerch Bridge.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Significant increase in Russian naval activity around Sevastopol have been noted by OSINT observers. Most of the activity appears to be related to submarine activity. In the recent past subs have been active just before launching cruise missile attacks and this may be deployments in preparation for a suspected Monday attack.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

Russian based news report - “There was an explosion in Melitopol, a car was blown up. According to Russian sources, “saboteurs blew up a car where two persons of Russian special services were driving. Both were seriously injured, one of them had a limb torn off.””

OUTLOOK ——
While monitoring Russian naval activity that some consider abnormal (or rather more ‘active’) the situation on the ground remains relatively unchanged. Weather conditions have yet to have temperatures drop enough to start freezing the ground which would permit resumption of cross country maneuvering by either side. Russia does appear to be trying to prepare for the inevitable Ukrainian resumption of the offensive by improving defenses – however many observers note that they are poorly designed and constructed based on WW1 and WW2 methodologies.

Belarus -

RUMINT – Reports of Liga (Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said a recent combat readiness check was focused on the west and northwest border. Belarus had initially declared the exercise a counter-terrorism drill but is now framing it as a defensive drill.

OBSERVATION - Ukraine-Belarus border is a swampy forest with few roads. During both World Wars neither German nor Russian/Soviet Armies tried to overcome this area. Only key avenues of approach into Ukraine are along the narrow corridor towards Kyiv (which proved devastating to Russia) and the western region, where the corridor incorporates parts of Latvia and Poland (a sure way to get them in the fight)

Israel –

See Russia, logistical issues for Mossad’s warning about Iran supplying drones and other potential munitions to Russia.

The Israeli Air Force struck a clandestine drone research and development site belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in Syria earlier this week, according to a Thursday report by the Saudi-funded al-Arabiya network and its sister channel al-Hadath.
Citing unnamed sources, al-Arabiya said Israeli jets struck the Hezbollah site at the al-Qusayr military air base, close to the border with Lebanon, and the northwestern Syrian city of Homs overnight between Sunday and Monday. The strike was not previously reported.

OBSERVATION – Though the strike was noted from other sources, here are details on the target.

More info on another recent IAF airstrike. Late Monday, Israeli jets attacked militia targets in Syria. The primary objective was an Iranian air defense battery that was recently installed near the Damascus International Airport.

OBSERVATION – Apparently this ADA battery also had Syrian soldiers operating the system. It is likely that the battery was really a Syrian unit, but given over to try to protect Hezbollah facilities and activities at the Damascus airport and nearby areas.

Iran –

Protests continue but are getting progressively smaller and more limited to the Kurdish region of Iran.

Syria -

RUMINT – A confrontation may be building in Syria as Russia and the Syrian regime are sending military reinforcements to northern Aleppo, and Turkey is threatening to crush the northern regions at a depth of 30 km.

Known - The Pro-Assad forces forces sent military reinforcements to the vicinity of the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat

OBSERVATION – Not sure how this will play out, if they get into a scrum in N Syria it could get interesting fast. Russia has a diminished presence from pulling troops out for Ukraine and Turkey has already embarrassed Syrian forces in attacks led by their drones.

Misc of Note –

Winter Storm Elliott is continuing to bear down on the eastern half of the US, with dangerously low wind chill temperatures and blizzard conditions. So far, no major power outages noted – only localized ones. Texas reportedly had its generation assets winterized following the disastrous blizzard of a couple years ago and grid managers are anticipating high demand, but no grid failures.

OBSERVATION - Watching the last of Winter Storm Elliott fade away here in the redoubt, with temperatures CLIMBING over night from -15 to +3 (current).
Failures to be prepared for weather conditions like Elliott are almost inexcusable. Yet many are having troubles. Please do some research of what may impact your location and keep prepared for it. Granted, Elliott is being called a ‘generational’ storm, but there can be no guarantees that it won’t repeat in the future.

Significant increase in Russian naval activity around Sevastopol have been noted by OSINT observers. Most of the activity appears to be related to submarine activity. In the recent past subs have been active just before launching cruise missile attacks and this may be deployments in preparation for a suspected Monday attack.

Both sides are ramping up -= what could possibly go wrong?

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, took a couple days off in celebration.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Germany’s Federal Network Agency, a watchdog that regulates electricity and gas in the country, said the plan would allow the power grid operators to remotely limit people’s use of heat pumps and electric car chargers next winter without the user’s consent.
The plans, set to be in place by January 2024, will give energy grid operators the power to artificially curb electricity demand if consumption outstrips supply.
Die Welt reported that the plans had been drawn up in the wake of the German energy grid being put under more strain due to the increasing use of electric car chargers and people using supposed ‘environmentally friendly’ electricity-intense heat pumps in their homes.
The increased demand cannot be caught up to with increased supply, meaning the government believes that remote consumption restrictions are the only solution.

OBSERVATION – Note the last line – cannot catch up with increased supply. This is quite the intentional lie. Germany has been carrying the water for much of the GGR’s beta testing efforts to enforce its global warming goals and is reaping the consequences in a major way this winter – in part due to loss of gas from Russia. Europe HAS the resources, they have just been locked away by the globalists to force their green agenda on the populus.

Wuhan virus –

See China below re: 250 Million infected

Economy –

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its food price inflation estimate to between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2023. The USDA increased its forecast for egg prices in 2023 to 4% to 5%, citing the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak affecting U.S. poultry farmers.

OBSERVATION – This is highly dependent on things going well this next year, with no other disasters (natural or man made) impacting agriculture.

Lumber prices hit an all-time low after homebuilder sentiment tumbled for the twelfth straight month in December. The building commodity peaked at $1,336 per thousand board feet in late February, but has settled to around $379, as of Dec. 22, to its lowest level since the pandemic in June 2020.

The price of lumber is down by 72 percent from this earlier year’s peak, largely due to rising mortgage rates, a decline in housing activity, low builder confidence, and fears of recession, which together have lowered sales.

OBSERVATION - These lower prices are unlikely to springboard the housing market back into the positive side. Inflation in general and the high mortgage rates for new loans will continue to keep the market depressed and the verge of implosion.

Invasion of Illegals –

NOTE - The rampaging Kurds in Paris should bring pause to Americans here with the surge of illegals filling our country. Many have noted that they are predominantly military aged men. What would stop them from starting similar rioting?

U.S. Customs and Border Protection waited until Christmas weekend to announce that it encountered 233,740 migrants illegally crossing the southwest border in November, as overwhelmed border agents say the problem has become unmanageable.
“Today, even before the end of Title 42, apprehensions are eight times higher than manageable,” Brandon Judd, the president of the National Border Patrol Council, wrote in an opinion piece on Dec. 20.
The 233,740 encounters in November 2022 is the third highest monthly total on record, behind the record 241,136 monthly encounters in May and 235,785 in April. It is up one percent from October’s elevated level of 231,294. But it’s up 33.68 percent from 174,845 a year ago November; and up 224.13 percent from 72,113 in November 2020.

CW2/Domestic violence –

NOTE – The vandalism/damage to power substations may be tests by elements to see how easy to shut power down or identify efficient ways of doing so while also gauging law enforcement response times.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

New Twitter File drop expanding on other govt agencies using the FBI as an intermediary to direct Twitter to censor posts.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Twitter CEO Elon Musk appeared on the All-In podcast and said that “every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true.”
“Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that didn’t turn out to be true?” Musk said. “So far they’ve all turned out to be true, and if not more true than people thought.”

OBSERVATION – Nothing will happen, no one go to jail over the use of twitter to silence americans a la 1984.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Judge Peter A. Thompson ruled against Kari Lake and in favor of the defendants on all counts on December 24 2022.

OBSERVATION – Surprised and not surprised. The liberal ( and some conservative ) judges cannot allow the wall to crack on probable voter fraud.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

14,000 power customers in Tacoma, Washington experienced blackouts after three power substations were vandalized on Christmas Day. The Pierce County Sheriff’s Department said two Tacoma Public Utilities substations and one Puget Sound Energy substation were vandalized. The department said it is unknown if the incidents were coordinated. This follows six similar attacks on power substations in the state in November and attacks on Duke Energy substations in North and South Carolina earlier this month.

OBSERVATION – Hard to rule out potential terror test runs, but other potentials include ‘copy cat’ vandalism.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Biden administration has neglected to pay numerous National Guard troops their year-end paycheck on time during the week of Christmas.
This delay is taking place after the House approved the controversial additional $45 billion aid package to Ukraine, and a $1.7 trillion spending plan.

OBSERVATION – Just more evidence of the callousness the regime has towards the military in general, and the National Guard in specific.

China –

Taiwan Ministry of Defense - 71 PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected in our surrounding region yesterday. 47 crossed the median line in the Taiwanese strait and entered the ADZ. This is the largest incursion to date. Also, a large number of Chinese naval vessels are also participating in the military exercises, including China’s carrier strike groups.

OBSERVATION – This level of activity by the Chinese air force is pushing the threat indicators deep into the yellow zone. Described by China as ‘war drills’, they indicate that China may be transitioning from harassment to more of a very direct threat mode. In short, these drills may be setting the stage for either an aggressive blockade of the island or an outright invasion.

Difficult to confirm reports that over the course of the past week, as many as 250 million Chinese have come down with wuhan. That’s nearly 1/4th the country’s population. This follows China’s loosening of their ‘zero-covid’ program of aggressive lockdowns.

OBSERVATION - The persistence of infections continues to be a drag on its economy. Things have gotten so bad that companies are moving production to other countries with more dependable conditions .

North/South Korea –

NK intruded into SK airspace with as many as 5 drones, one of which flew as far south as Seoul. SK military was caught off guard and may have only downed one of the drones. SK retaliated by sending a drone of its own across the border into NK, and returned it safely. The last time NK did anything like this was about 5 years ago.

OBSERVATION - This is clearly an embarrassment to the SK govt and miliary – essentially being caught flat footed and having an ineffective response to the incursion. The harsh reality of modern drone warfare – seen so much lately in Ukraine – is a dramatic change of actions by NK.
This escalation is particularly dangerous, though there is no indicators of an impending attack by the north. This could indicate a new stage of incitement by the north to supplement its very busy missile launching operations of 2022.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced over the weekend that Russia was ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but complained that Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks.

OBSERVATION - This ‘offer’ is considered to be disingenuous and an delay attempt to allow Russia breathing space to reconsolidate and reinforce its miliary for an anticipated attempt to resume the offensive to take the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Vice-President of “Vladmirsky Standart” company and MP of Vladimir legislative assembly Pavel Antov has died after falling out of the window of hotel in Rayagada, Odisha, India

OBSERVATION – In America it is Arkancide, in Russia its falling out windows or down stairs.

Russia is warning the U.S. to quit getting involved in its war against Ukraine or face a direct confrontation between the two world powers. Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.S., told Russian news outlet Tass that the “risk of a clash between the two great powers is high,” a day after President Joe Biden announced a new $1.8 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including for the first time Patriot surface-to-air missiles. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said the delivery of the advanced surface-to-air missile system would be considered a provocative step and that the system and any crews accompanying it would be a legitimate target for Moscow’s military.

OBSERVATION - Russia has been threating the West and in particular the US over its support since day one. Not sure if putin has been maneuvered into a position were he does strike out at western support to Ukraine directly.

RUMINT. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia. Putin has been seemingly making more public appearances in Russian cities and more frequently delivering vague statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in recent days compared to his marked absence from public activity outside the Kremlin throughout the first ten months of the war.

MORE - Putin is reportedly being kept alive by Western medical treatments as he battles against cancer, according to Russian historian and political analyst Valery Solovey, the New York Post reported over the weekend.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- The Kremlin is attempting to introduce new provisions to incentivize more Russians to join the war effort. The Russian Federation Council approved a law on December 23 that suspends legal proceedings against mobilized servicemen and volunteers who participate in hostilities during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This law will also require Russian banks to suspend debt collection and the repayment of loans. This law could incentivize Russians with pending criminal proceedings or bank loans to join the war effort.

- The Kremlin continues to prioritize committing mobilized men to stabilize the Svatove-Kremina line over other areas of the front such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No Russian missile/drone barrage that has been typical of Monday mornings for the past several weeks. OTOH, for the second time in weeks that Russia’s main nuclear bomber base at Engels has been attacked. At least 2 Kh101 drones impacted the base, killing at least 3 and causing unknown damage, though videos posted on social media show a large fire and many secondary explosions following the strike.

Russia continues to throw everything is has left into the fight in the east, launching ground assaulst from Svatove in the north to Donetsk in the south, with no appreciable gains. Rumors are that Russia has lost ground in Bakhmut. Yet to be confirmed reports that Reports of the first Ukrainian units entering the town of Kreminna from both the north and the west tonight as part of a larger Ukrainian offensive in the Kreminna-Svatove. Unconfirmed reports of Russians pulling out of the area.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian occupiers are stealing everything they can from the residents of Kreminna in Luhansk region. Military command of Russian invasion forces has moved from Kreminna to Rubizhne.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Reports that Russia has lost ground in the Bahkmut area.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are engineering positions along the Krasnoperekopsk-Dzhankoy highway in northern Crimea.[

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit Engles airfield – see 24 hr update.
Explosions were reported in Sudzha district of Kursk region of Russia.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
RUMINT – Russia claiming that NATO special ops forces and / or CIA has activated operatives throughout Russia to conduct strikes on various targets ranging from pipelines, refinery facilities and large shopping centers. Totally unconfirmed, though there have been a lot of these incidents in recent days.

OUTLOOK ——
Observing evidence that Ukraine is gaining traction in its attacks against Kreminna, around Bahkmut and in the Savtove region. Of the three, the battle for Kreminna is probably the most tactically important as it would open the door to going further east and endangering Russian LOCs necessary for the fight at Bahkmut and further south. Success at Svatove, combined with Kerminna would endanger the northern shoulder of the Russian efforts in the Donbas.

Bahkmut is turning even more into a meat grinder for Russia. If confirmed, photos and videos on social media show the approaches to the Ukraine defenses littered with the bodies of unrecovered Russian troops. One estimate was one body per 5 square meters. Some others likened it to the Germans at Verdun.

Tracking indicators that Russia is intending to launch some kind of attack out of Belarus in the future. Troops and equipment are slowly coming into the country and with the skeletal framework of the decimated 1st GTA there, Russia may be making an attempt to reconstitute it for either an attack towards Kyiv or the western margin of Ukraine.

My Assessment is that no invasion from Belarus is imminent, but actions indicate that the threat is growing. See Belarus below on some of the observed activities.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Putin’s upcoming meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg on December 26-27 will likely continue to prod Lukashenko towards deeper involvement in the Ukraine war.

The Russian Ministry of Defense ostentatiously announced on November 24 that it has a field hospital in Belarus. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are planning to deploy at least one more field hospital in Belarus. Field hospitals are not necessary for training exercises and could indicate preparation for combat operations. The appearance of field hospitals in Belarus in early 2022 was among the final indicators observed before Russia commenced its full-scale invasion.

Some Russian T-90 tanks, reportedly deployed to Belarus in late December 2022, were observed with winter camouflage. Equipping tanks with winter camouflage is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.

OBSERVATION – Growing evidence that Russia may be planning an eventually attack out of the north, but compilation of indicators suggest nothing imminent.

Poland –

.
Europe / NATO General –

Kurdish immigrants in Paris have been on a rampage for the past few days following a race-based attack that kill three.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

After an Emergency Meeting earlier today Serbian President Vucic ordered Serbian Army General Staff Milan Mojsilovic to go to the Kosovo-Serbian Border where Serbian Roadblocks continue to be built and where earlier today a NATO KFOR Patrol was fired upon by Unknown Forces.

OBSERVATION – I suspect that Serbia is gauging its provocations with Russia’s reportedly planned offensive. As noted, it could serve to divert NATO support for Ukraine via having to respond to Serbian aggression and an Art 5 trigger.

Pakistan –

State Dept issued an alert that terror attacks may occur in Pakistan.

Iran –

Protests are waning in Iran, remaining predominantly in the Kurdish western areas.

Syria -

Turkey is in talks with Russia to use the airspace above northern Syria for a potential cross-border operation against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday. Turkey has carried out several incursions into northern Syria against the YPG and has been threatening a new incursion for months.

OBSERVATION - In negotiating with Russia, Syria is also being spoken too. Turkey is trying to play both ends against the middle with Russia.

Turkey -

See talks with Russia under Syria above.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

UN Security Council member states called for the reopening of the Lachin corridor in a discussion of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations on Tuesday. The corridor, the only open road into or out of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been blocked by Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’ since 12 December.

OBSERVATION – ‘Eco-activitst’ looking a lot like miliary. The corridor has trapped about ½ the population of Armenia population in Nagorno-Karabakh and isolated them from supplies. This ‘blockaid’ has been going on for nearly two weeks now.

Misc of Note –

Winter storm Elliott is slowly working its way out of the eastern US. It brought snow as far south as Miami FL and set snowfall records in Buffalo NY. Currently about a dozen have died and millions have been without power. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, we went from -36 to 40 degrees yesterday and scattered light RAIN showers. Weather chaos is hard to predict, but I’m growing concerned that even some milder storms (or lack thereof) will seriously affect our food production in 2023.

Year 2022 in Review

OVERVIEW -
Just a couple of notes for any who’ve gone back to post #1 of this year.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Initially I continued a color coding system to track changes in concern not overtly noticeable. I discontinued it because things went sooooooooo quickly into the crapper this past year.

And as I reviewed the posts for the year – I didn’t realize how much info I put out. So lets take a look at what happened during 2022.

The following is as close to a Reader’s digest condensation as i can accomplish hitting the high (low) points of the year.

My post on Friday will be what I’m expecting to occur in 2023.

GGR/WEF

This year the WEF moved significantly from its conceptual world view for the 4th industrial revolution to moving with its minions more aggressive in pushing the green, reset agenda. Significant nations/unions ramped up the effort to implement the WEF/GGR goals including the EU, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and various Blue States in the US.

The WEF became even bolder this past year, bolstered by the apparent success of wuhan lockdown/clamp downs to force the sheeple into compliance. Wuhan also gave many nations the leverage to start forcing other controls on the people such as climate change goals, restricted voices in the public (social media) square etc. The WEF wears many other masks such as the IMF, WHO, UN, G20, etc. clearly demonstrated by their echoing the WEF common goals.

Key progress included –

1. Global warming scam. Initial goals were hindered by the Ukrainan war and cut off of Europe from Russian gas supplies. However, countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and yes even the US are pushing on multiple fronts to meet green goals. Some cases, forcibly closing ranches, others forbidding the use of fertilizers, etc. Continued push towards green energy sources, likely to accelerate this summer after the regression due to the power shortages this winter.

2. More than 100 nations are exploring CBDCs, according to the IMF. The Biden Administration is pushing this. It is being portrayed as the answer to many of the world’s problems! We could see it in 2023.

3. Push to form a WHO global vaccine passport program that will eventually morph into a
Global digitial identification system. This system will biometrically track one’s ESG, vaccination and social awareness by creating a credit score that the govt can program to limit one’s purchasing and travel options.

4. Push by the WHO are changes to the global treaty to essentially give it overall power to control medical response to the next global pandemic - overriding the wills on independent countries.

5. Open statements of the desire to drastically reduce the human population. WEF leader Yuval Noah Harari openly called for the culling out of excess humanity and transhuman alteration of the remaining citizenry.

6. Increased push by the WEF’s underlings BlackRock and Vangard to force businesses to adopt ESG standards and operations.

Wuhan virus –

The year started strong for the oppressive lockdowns, continuing the economic chaos carried over from 2021, but as the year wore on, greater and greater pushback from the population – principally lead by Red states gained traction and wuhan controls were loosened.

Probably one of the leading factors was the realization by the general public that the jabs were not performing as promised. More and more major public figures came down with wuhan even though full jabbed (two shot basic and two boosters).

Then on top of it the growing evidence that the jab was not as harmless as the establishment narrative claimed. The first crack in the dam was the reporting of “excess deaths” by multiple credible sources that initially managed to get around the censors (See Cancel Culture for more). Closely with this was the ‘sudden death’ syndromes that hit many other well known figures – individuals that in many cases were athletic and in excellent health. This couldn’t be ignored by the medical community and was given the title Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS). Hand in hand with SADS came irrefutable, peer review studies of myocardia conditions linked to the mRNA versions of the jab produced by Pfizer and Moderna. While this link was rumored early on, the rash of SADS and excess deaths stimulated the medical research community to investigate and that investigation has lead to the mRNA jabs being the culprit.

Further cracks in the false façade of these jabs towards the end of this year are the lawsuits showing that Pfizer/Moderna fraudulently reported its data on the safety of their jabs. Currently protected from lawsuits, that protection can be stripped away if it is shown that they committed fraud – and the evidence grew quickly over the course of this year. Currently Florida is leading the way in its investigation of the fraud.

Other controls instituted by the medical tyrants have fallen apart by other medical studies such as masks being ineffective, the developmental damage to the children from school shutdown, the multiple now documented lies by Fauci and Birx (who openly stated they lied to Trump to push a nation wide lockdown) . All worked towards the jump in skepticism in the medical community.

We have not seen the last of the medical tyranny created by wuhan.

Economy –

The economy has been on a wild ride this year. The latter half of 2021 we were chided about high inflation being only “transitory”. However, this year inflation skyrocketed to levels not seen in decades. In response, the Fed started an unprecedented series of increases to the prime lending rate – their only method to ‘cool’ inflation. These increases have contributed a slight decrease in the inflation rate, but has caused the housing and lending markets to go into a melt down as the combination of high interest rates and domestic incomes being hammered by inflation have driven potential buyers out of the market.

Energy costs have been particularly sensitive, soaring to record highs this summer, in part to supply scares due to the Ukraine war. The administration has scolded the petroleum industry for the high prices while at the same time doing all it can to discourage domestic production and refining. Prices have pulled back to a degree this fall – in part due to suppressed economic activity and people just not having money to pay for travel – having to pay for either fuel or food.

Speaking of food – prices skyrocketed this year across the board. These prices in large part have been due to major impacts to agriculture. The combination of the drought in the west, inflated fertilizer prices, sky high diesel prices and global supply problems (resulting from climate, war, fuel problems too) drove inflation solidly into double digit ranges – dependent on product.

Supply chain issues were also significant drags on the US (and global) economies, contributing to inflation and shortages. Most noticeable in the US was the massive, ongoing, shortage of baby formula and currently shortages in infant/child cold and flu OTC medications. Of course, the empty shelves in grocery stores are another example.

Talk of recession reverberated throughout the year, some saying that there will be no recession or a ‘soft’ landing, other economists and industry experts have been warning of a massive recession hitting in 2023. This year we hit a technical recession and it seems that we are at an inflection point, with many indicators pointing to a disaster, with others showing moderation. What is clear, our economy going into 2023 is not a robust as the administration keep touting. There are many factors coming out of the wuhan lockdowns that are not being factored in and in fact may be made worse with the Fed prime increases and the $1.7 Trillion in govt spending coming in 2023.

Invasion of Illegals –

2022 saw an unprecedented number of illegals entering into the country – highest rates ever, running some where north of the 5 million level. The regime is in complete denial that there is a problem and is willingly doing what it can to further enhance illegals coming into the country. The past year has been ‘catch and release’ on steroids.

Immigration chaos is a result of the WEF’s policy of a world without borders and is being executed here in the US in support of those goals.

Some border states like Texas and Arizona have started taking steps to block the flow but at this stage it may be too little, too late. The last straw holding back some illegals may be the retention of Title 42, but that has been ineffectual in stopping the record influx, but its removal would open the gates even wider.

What gained some highlights was the bussing of illegals from states like Texas and Florida to ‘sanctuary’ cities and states. These numbers were a pittance compared to the influx along the border, but enough for these hypocritical lefties to cry foul.

Hand in hand with the flood on illegals have been the exponential increase in the smuggling of meth and Fentanyl. Many argue that these drugs are smuggled in at established border crossings, and I’ll cede that part of that is true. But inspectors are drawn down at these crossing to deal with the illegal crossings. Additionally, the Mexican cartels human trafficking also includes them backpacking illegal drugs.

Finally, 2022 saw an increase in Mexican cartel presence in the border regions in part due to human trafficking and the overwhelming of US law enforcement having to deal with it. This has opened a greater foot hold and potentially will cause the spread of cartel violence to spread north in a greater measure in 2023.

Biden / Harris watch –

I am still amazed that biden is still in office. This year graphically displayed is rapidly decaying mental and physical conditions to the world. His gaffs were epic at times, ranging from gross errors reading his teleprompter, to unscripted outbursts and incoheranet babbling to wandering around aimlessly at the end of a statement (until an aid or his wife could rush out and redirect him) . I originally thought he wouldn’t make it thru this year, but it seems his handlers may be terrified of an even more incompetent VP Harris replacing him. Had the 2022 midterms turned into the red tsunami, it is likely he would be on his way out. Now he is working towards running again in 2024.

Harris has been her own worse enemy in public, with abundant public misstatements and word salads. The past few months she has dropped of the radar screen, only to pop up to whine about the media not heralding her as some great leader.

CW2/Domestic violence –

With 2022 being a midterm year, I expected Antifa et al to ramp up violence attacking republican campaign events at levels last seen during the 2016 and 2020 cycles. Though they did show up to some degree, violence was at a very suppressed level.

Antifa appeared to take this year to try to gain support from other movements – supporting environmental, LGBT (especially trans events), defending ‘homeless’, and conducting what they consider community support events for outcast causes.

On another level, components of Antifa have spent the time and efforts to militarize units with better kit and training. They have increasingly been willing to show up openly armed and looking for a fight - particularly when counter protesting LGBT/Trans events. This shows a serious upgrade in their willingness to go kinetic – a trend that I noted starting in the riots of 2020. This also indicates that they are taking training more seriously as their fire teams have to have discipline that their mob enforcers in 2020 didn’t. Taking a trip into the way back machine, the Berkeley riots, we saw core Antifa members setting up strike teams to physically assault opponents and fade back into the crowd. 2020 saw even more technical / tactical development in support and operation of the riots. 2022 see similar growth in their ‘doctrine’ and cannot be written off as a bunch of misfits living in momma’s basement any more.

Another facet of the growing threat of a hot civil war has been the massive population migrations in the country, with many conservatives fleeing blue states for red, making each either bluer or redder. This has resulted in a wider divide between Americans and a growing clamor for either a relatively peaceful ‘divorce’ or a violent separation. What has grown has been the open discursions of separation and break up of the country by BOTH sides of the political spectrum. Kalifornia, Oregon and Washington states have had red counties openly vote to switch to becoming part of Idaho or forming their own state, and these movements are growing in momentum. The left has fought to suppress these political movements because they would cause a significant changed in the political power in DC.

Finally, 2022 fully pulled the blanket off the intent of the fed govt to weaponize against the citizens. With biden calling nearly half of americans “terrorists”, the DoJ labeling parents protesting corrupt schoolboards as ‘domestic terrorists’, the DHS considering white, Christian, conservative to be ‘domestic terrorists’ and the greatest threat to the country has only been the starters.

DoJ has openly used a willing FBI as a defacto Stasi like political enforcement arm to stage show arrests of biden political opponents. Even willing to raid Trumps home in Florida in a show raid. The brazenness of the FBI actions, combined with the selective justice from the DoJ has shifted public opinion of the agencies towards that of distrust. The year ended with the massive Twitter Files further exposing the overt actions of these govt agencies against regime opponents and contra narrative speech. See Cancel Culture below for more.

Other overt actions by the govt against citizens include using the USPS to spy, working around clear laws against such surveillance. Growth and expansion of the IRS, most likely to pressure citizens to comply with the narrative over ESG related standards. Gross negligence by DHS in controlling the border (a WEF goal) and the medical tyranny that disrupted the country in many, many ways.

It has been increasingly evident that the biden regime is seeking to create a situation where the right finally says enough as a reason to crackdown on its opponents. Much of that effort is focused on the persecution of Trump, knowing that they have a likelihood of triggering a response from their actions while trying to maintain a veneer of legitimate law enforcement.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Conservatives continued to be suppressed by Big Tech throughout most of the year. The biggest event occurred in just the past couple months with Musk purchasing Twitter and is in the process of exposing govt corruption in censoring the first amendment views of Americans on many subjects. I won’t try to detail the Twitter Files other to say that govt control of that platform – as well as the other platforms like Facistbook, google et al is down right despicable. Govt actions are bordering on the criminal, yet the regime will not pursue it. Heck even the MSM is silent on the Files. Govt actions to influence the elections, silence open and honest debate on wuhan responses, open attempts to go after a seated president and more.

POLITICAL FRONT –
This year was dominated by the eGOP pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in the midterms. It was incredible passiveness and an outright hatred of Trump endorsed candidates that caused the republicans to flip the house by a very small majority and the senate republicans to lose seats.

The eGOP sees the fruit of their efforts to neutralize Trump as an indicator that Trump is a negative influence and on the senate side turned the republican representation from red to purple. Evidenced by the significant republican support for the LGBT ‘marriage’ bill and now the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion CR through the end of FY23 – effectively sealing out house republican influence on the budget for effectively half of the new term.

Further on the political front was the illegitimate hearings on the J6 events. In the finest manner of communist show trials – the ultimate goal was to try to charge Trump with felonies to stop his re-election bid in 2024 as well as wipe him off the political map.
Added to this was congress’ successfully getting their hands on Trumps tax returns and sending them right out to the press, and failing to get the desired hit on Trump.

Parallel to this was the DoJ’s raid on Trumps home in Florida which has turned out to be a nothing burger and now the appointment of a documented anti-Trump DoJ attorney as a Special Prosecutor to investigate Trump crimes ranging from mishandling classified material to J6 related charges.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

This category has been relatively calm this past year, though not totally quiet. Great concern over the uncontrolled influx of illegals, some designated terrorists were apprehended.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Numerous deployments in the major hot spot regions of Taiwan and Ukraine. Biggest has been the huge amount of equipment and munitions supplied to Ukraine.

Recruitment by the armed forces has suffered greatly this year, due in part IMHO by the aggressive WOKE agenda of the DoD being forced on the military and the illegal forcing of wuhan jabs. The jab is illegal because the DoD forced the unapproved version on the soldiers and not the ‘approved’ version, in addition to blanket denials of medical and religious objections. To make up for the short fall, services are opening enlistment up for lesser qualified individuals with lower scholastic scores. This does not bode well for the future of our military.

Cyber Warfare –

This category has been relatively low intensity this year as well. Most notable have been ransomware attacks that have attacked some sectors. The Ukraine war instigated hacking by Russian-affiliated groups towards the US with limited effects.

China –

This may have been a pivotal year for China. Its economy has been struggling due to the vast zero covid policy that locked down millions this year – putting the breaks on productions. Lockdown were so bad that serious protests broke out across China – nearing the Tiananmen Square levels that have forced China to back off its enforcement.

The Evergrande disaster hit the property and equity markets hard – and still an elephant in the room for China.

In spite of this Xi was elected to essentially a permanent role as president of the county and began the shift from a more capitalistic economy back to a more socialist – directed system. With the cementation of his position things have also quickly shifted.

First is Taiwan. Following pelosi’s visit in August, China ramped up its military pressure by essentially “soft” blockading the island for about a week via military exercises surrounding the island. Combined with western focus on Ukraine and under the table dealings with Russia and the perception that the US is weaking as a military power China appears to have flipped the switch to move forwards with an eventual confrontation over Taiwan. More and more Chinese miltary aircraft and ships are penetrating into Taiwan’s defense zone in what appear to be practice runs for an eventual attack. China has also been testing the use of civilian ferry boats to move military forces. Overall China is on a trajectory to make some kind of move as early as 2023. China’s options still seem to be –

- Using threats to get Taiwan to capitulate
- Seizure of Taiwan administered islands off the Chinese coast for further pressure
- Blockade of Taiwan to force capitulation – moderate chance of conflict with US/allies to break the blockade
- Invasion of Taiwan – Highest risk of US/Allies involvement

There is room for some mixture of the above tactics.

The other event is their alignment with Russia regarding the Ukraine war. China has watching its steps closely to avoid overt material support – which would bring sanctions that would hurt its struggling economy. But it is working to exploit the chaotic petroleum markets and other supply disruptions to try to put together a global currency challenge to the dollar as a means of economic war against the US as well as being able to work around any potential sanctions resulting from Russian support or actions taken against Taiwan. This is a short and long term effort that will see growth in 2023.

North/South Korea –

NK suffered immensely from the wuhan lockdowns and was on the brink of a major famine the first half of the year. Only when the border was reopened to China did the crisis decline.

With the election of a more aggressive towards NK administration in SK, it appeared that NK decided it was a good time to do some poking – invoking essentially knee-jerk responses from SK and the US. This has been a record year for NK missile launches and it shows no sign of slowing down.

One significant note was the test of an potentially ICBM capable missile that could range all of the US. The other side being the need for a warhead that the missile could carry. NK has reopened its underground test facility and can conduct another test when it wants.

Kim created a stir early in the year over health concerns, when he dropped out of sight for a number of months. When he re-appeared, he has lost a notable amount of weight. Most think he had heart problems and was hospitalized during that time.

Japan –

Japan has jump started its miliary buildup to meet growing challenges from China and NK. It is increasingly joining in with other western Pacific nations in exercises designed to prepare for that conflict.

Russia - Ukraine

After monitoring the military buildup in the 2021 and 2022 TMs and tracking the war this year the claim that Russia was a dominant force was essentially turned into a myth.

It amassed a battle force of 70+ battalion battle groups (BTGs) for the initial invasion with putin choosing the most dangerous goal of trying to capture the whole country. It didn’t go well from the start. The drive towards Kyiv, thought by Russian planners to be accomplished in less than a week turned into a quagmire in days. Eventually, in the face of heavy losses from a tenacious Ukrainian defense, they were forced to retreat and concentrate their attacks in the south to secure the Donbas region.

That battle for the Donbas didn’t turn out well either. Following some pyretic victories by Russia, the logistical lessons they should have learned in the fight for Kyiv caught up to them, made worse by the arrival of HIMARS and Ukraine’s new ability to strike deep at CP’s, logistical and troop concentrations. Ukraine broke the Russian lines in the Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a route of Russian forces that resulted in the loss of considerable territories as well as key logistical points that forced fighting further south to stall out.

At the same time, Ukraine was positioning for an offensive to retake Kherson Oblast on the western side of the Dnipir River, forcing Russia to face war on two fronts. Surgical strikes by Ukraine took out bridges, command, ammo dumps and troop concentrations - virtually isolating Russian forces. The Ukrainian Kherson threat also threatened Crimea, causing Russia to rush reinforcements to the region, denying them in the east. Probably the final straw for Russia was the truck bomb that took out the Kerch Strait bridge – denying that logistical supply route to southern Ukraine. Russia withdrew and has maintained a higher concentration of troops in the eastern Kherson Oblast out of concern of a Ukraine offensive into Crimea.

Russia displayed many other significant failures from the start. One of the biggest has been the failure to gain air superiority and dominance. Ukrainian air defenses have denied Russian air power to key areas of the battle field and Ukrainian air force elements have been able to fly CAS missions in support of ground forces.

The second major failure is the essential neutering of the Black Sea fleet. Starting off with a hit on a couple amphibious assault ships, to the sinking of the flag ship Moskva and the loss of Snake Island, the Black Sea fleet has been relegated to shooting cruise missiles. The amphibious threat against Odessa is essentially nil due to the losses of other amphibious vessels and the enhanced anti-ship missile batteries awaiting any approach by the Russian navy. That is if Russia even has enough soldiers to load into any amphib ship for an attack. The Russian desire for a ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria were dashed.

Ukraine has shown remarkable imagination in striking Russian assets. Starting with the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, to drone strikes on Crimean air bases, to sea borne drone strikes on Crimean naval bases to using ancient 1950s jet drones to strike Russian airbases used to launch strategic bombers that fire cruise missies at Ukraine.

Russia has found one formula that has been winning – hitting the power grid as winter starts in. Russia however at this stage of the war is finding itself short of the missiles necessary to maximize the tactic. Russia is looking to Iran to supply the drones and missiles needed for its war efforts.

Today, the battle is centered in eastern Ukraine with both sides preparing for offensive operations once the temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground and permit better cross country mobility. Ukraine currently has the edge for winter fighting.

Last, Russia nuclear rhetoric has been loud and hot since last year. Although there is no unclassified evidence that Russia is about to launch either a tactical or strategic strike, putin observers consider it to be a very real possibility should the war effort continue to go south and he feels his position threatened.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Initially a concern, the Russian garrison in Transnistria has only served to be a body pool once the Russian effort to obtain a ‘land bridge’ fell apart with the failure of the Black Sea fleet and Ukrainian resistance on the ground.

Belarus -
Originally on the TM radar screen because it was helping moslem immigrants get into Poland and the potential for a fight there, Belarus permitted Russian to stage for its attack on Kyiv as well as has allowed stationing of Russian fighter aircraft and missile units to fire into Ukraine.

Putin has continually applied pressure to get the Belarus army to more directly join the fight, but is has resisted every time because the public as well as the military are just flat out resistant to the idea and could result in a coup attempt.

Poland –

One of the lead voices in the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine. It has been serving as the main logistical supply points for aid to Ukraine.

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Europe / NATO General –

EU/Nato response to the Ukaine has been mixed. The Ukraine war has brought in two new nations in the final process of membership to NATO – Finland and Sweden. Long term commitment to Ukraine is still in place.

The Ukraine war turned European energy supplies upside down, especially with the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2. Germany, France and England all had to quickly revert to coal because the ‘green’ sources were totally inadequate. Long term industrial capacity – especially for Germany – and the associated economic hit may be Russia’s biggest gain against the west. Combined with all the other economic woes, Europe’s economy could face serious issues in a global recession.

Europe has also be a key player in many of the WEF’s what I call “beta” testing on items like digital passports/vaccination certificates, move to digital currency, radical actions to meet greenhouse gas emission goals. King Charles, France’s Macron and other govt officials in the EU are in the highest circles of the WEF and have been pushing the implementation of their policies at an accelerated rate using the emergency created by wuhan plandemic.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

This has flared up of recent, with Russia supporting Serbs aggressive stance and threat of war against Kosovo and NATO. Still simmering, but such an action would divert a lot of NATO attention and supplies from going to Ukraine. If tied to a Russian offensive of some kind, could grant them a degree of advantage.

Pakistan –

Pakistan is facing a three-fold problem, crashed economy, political turmoil and increasing terror/competion from Pakistani Taliban elements.

Israel –

It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.

Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.

Iran –

Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.

Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.

Syria -

Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.

Turkey -

Turkey has been playing a middleman role of late. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas. It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.

Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.

Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.

Central / South America General-

Leftist elements have been on the move expanding the number of countries that they control. These will eventually turn hostile toward the US and be more open to advances from China.

India -

Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.

India has also been favoring Russia in the Ukraine War, due largely to the supply of cheap oil from Russia.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.