Year 2022 in Review
OVERVIEW -
Just a couple of notes for any who’ve gone back to post #1 of this year.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Initially I continued a color coding system to track changes in concern not overtly noticeable. I discontinued it because things went sooooooooo quickly into the crapper this past year.
And as I reviewed the posts for the year – I didn’t realize how much info I put out. So lets take a look at what happened during 2022.
The following is as close to a Reader’s digest condensation as i can accomplish hitting the high (low) points of the year.
My post on Friday will be what I’m expecting to occur in 2023.
GGR/WEF
This year the WEF moved significantly from its conceptual world view for the 4th industrial revolution to moving with its minions more aggressive in pushing the green, reset agenda. Significant nations/unions ramped up the effort to implement the WEF/GGR goals including the EU, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and various Blue States in the US.
The WEF became even bolder this past year, bolstered by the apparent success of wuhan lockdown/clamp downs to force the sheeple into compliance. Wuhan also gave many nations the leverage to start forcing other controls on the people such as climate change goals, restricted voices in the public (social media) square etc. The WEF wears many other masks such as the IMF, WHO, UN, G20, etc. clearly demonstrated by their echoing the WEF common goals.
Key progress included –
1. Global warming scam. Initial goals were hindered by the Ukrainan war and cut off of Europe from Russian gas supplies. However, countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and yes even the US are pushing on multiple fronts to meet green goals. Some cases, forcibly closing ranches, others forbidding the use of fertilizers, etc. Continued push towards green energy sources, likely to accelerate this summer after the regression due to the power shortages this winter.
2. More than 100 nations are exploring CBDCs, according to the IMF. The Biden Administration is pushing this. It is being portrayed as the answer to many of the world’s problems! We could see it in 2023.
3. Push to form a WHO global vaccine passport program that will eventually morph into a
Global digitial identification system. This system will biometrically track one’s ESG, vaccination and social awareness by creating a credit score that the govt can program to limit one’s purchasing and travel options.
4. Push by the WHO are changes to the global treaty to essentially give it overall power to control medical response to the next global pandemic - overriding the wills on independent countries.
5. Open statements of the desire to drastically reduce the human population. WEF leader Yuval Noah Harari openly called for the culling out of excess humanity and transhuman alteration of the remaining citizenry.
6. Increased push by the WEF’s underlings BlackRock and Vangard to force businesses to adopt ESG standards and operations.
Wuhan virus –
The year started strong for the oppressive lockdowns, continuing the economic chaos carried over from 2021, but as the year wore on, greater and greater pushback from the population – principally lead by Red states gained traction and wuhan controls were loosened.
Probably one of the leading factors was the realization by the general public that the jabs were not performing as promised. More and more major public figures came down with wuhan even though full jabbed (two shot basic and two boosters).
Then on top of it the growing evidence that the jab was not as harmless as the establishment narrative claimed. The first crack in the dam was the reporting of “excess deaths” by multiple credible sources that initially managed to get around the censors (See Cancel Culture for more). Closely with this was the ‘sudden death’ syndromes that hit many other well known figures – individuals that in many cases were athletic and in excellent health. This couldn’t be ignored by the medical community and was given the title Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS). Hand in hand with SADS came irrefutable, peer review studies of myocardia conditions linked to the mRNA versions of the jab produced by Pfizer and Moderna. While this link was rumored early on, the rash of SADS and excess deaths stimulated the medical research community to investigate and that investigation has lead to the mRNA jabs being the culprit.
Further cracks in the false façade of these jabs towards the end of this year are the lawsuits showing that Pfizer/Moderna fraudulently reported its data on the safety of their jabs. Currently protected from lawsuits, that protection can be stripped away if it is shown that they committed fraud – and the evidence grew quickly over the course of this year. Currently Florida is leading the way in its investigation of the fraud.
Other controls instituted by the medical tyrants have fallen apart by other medical studies such as masks being ineffective, the developmental damage to the children from school shutdown, the multiple now documented lies by Fauci and Birx (who openly stated they lied to Trump to push a nation wide lockdown) . All worked towards the jump in skepticism in the medical community.
We have not seen the last of the medical tyranny created by wuhan.
Economy –
The economy has been on a wild ride this year. The latter half of 2021 we were chided about high inflation being only “transitory”. However, this year inflation skyrocketed to levels not seen in decades. In response, the Fed started an unprecedented series of increases to the prime lending rate – their only method to ‘cool’ inflation. These increases have contributed a slight decrease in the inflation rate, but has caused the housing and lending markets to go into a melt down as the combination of high interest rates and domestic incomes being hammered by inflation have driven potential buyers out of the market.
Energy costs have been particularly sensitive, soaring to record highs this summer, in part to supply scares due to the Ukraine war. The administration has scolded the petroleum industry for the high prices while at the same time doing all it can to discourage domestic production and refining. Prices have pulled back to a degree this fall – in part due to suppressed economic activity and people just not having money to pay for travel – having to pay for either fuel or food.
Speaking of food – prices skyrocketed this year across the board. These prices in large part have been due to major impacts to agriculture. The combination of the drought in the west, inflated fertilizer prices, sky high diesel prices and global supply problems (resulting from climate, war, fuel problems too) drove inflation solidly into double digit ranges – dependent on product.
Supply chain issues were also significant drags on the US (and global) economies, contributing to inflation and shortages. Most noticeable in the US was the massive, ongoing, shortage of baby formula and currently shortages in infant/child cold and flu OTC medications. Of course, the empty shelves in grocery stores are another example.
Talk of recession reverberated throughout the year, some saying that there will be no recession or a ‘soft’ landing, other economists and industry experts have been warning of a massive recession hitting in 2023. This year we hit a technical recession and it seems that we are at an inflection point, with many indicators pointing to a disaster, with others showing moderation. What is clear, our economy going into 2023 is not a robust as the administration keep touting. There are many factors coming out of the wuhan lockdowns that are not being factored in and in fact may be made worse with the Fed prime increases and the $1.7 Trillion in govt spending coming in 2023.
Invasion of Illegals –
2022 saw an unprecedented number of illegals entering into the country – highest rates ever, running some where north of the 5 million level. The regime is in complete denial that there is a problem and is willingly doing what it can to further enhance illegals coming into the country. The past year has been ‘catch and release’ on steroids.
Immigration chaos is a result of the WEF’s policy of a world without borders and is being executed here in the US in support of those goals.
Some border states like Texas and Arizona have started taking steps to block the flow but at this stage it may be too little, too late. The last straw holding back some illegals may be the retention of Title 42, but that has been ineffectual in stopping the record influx, but its removal would open the gates even wider.
What gained some highlights was the bussing of illegals from states like Texas and Florida to ‘sanctuary’ cities and states. These numbers were a pittance compared to the influx along the border, but enough for these hypocritical lefties to cry foul.
Hand in hand with the flood on illegals have been the exponential increase in the smuggling of meth and Fentanyl. Many argue that these drugs are smuggled in at established border crossings, and I’ll cede that part of that is true. But inspectors are drawn down at these crossing to deal with the illegal crossings. Additionally, the Mexican cartels human trafficking also includes them backpacking illegal drugs.
Finally, 2022 saw an increase in Mexican cartel presence in the border regions in part due to human trafficking and the overwhelming of US law enforcement having to deal with it. This has opened a greater foot hold and potentially will cause the spread of cartel violence to spread north in a greater measure in 2023.
Biden / Harris watch –
I am still amazed that biden is still in office. This year graphically displayed is rapidly decaying mental and physical conditions to the world. His gaffs were epic at times, ranging from gross errors reading his teleprompter, to unscripted outbursts and incoheranet babbling to wandering around aimlessly at the end of a statement (until an aid or his wife could rush out and redirect him) . I originally thought he wouldn’t make it thru this year, but it seems his handlers may be terrified of an even more incompetent VP Harris replacing him. Had the 2022 midterms turned into the red tsunami, it is likely he would be on his way out. Now he is working towards running again in 2024.
Harris has been her own worse enemy in public, with abundant public misstatements and word salads. The past few months she has dropped of the radar screen, only to pop up to whine about the media not heralding her as some great leader.
CW2/Domestic violence –
With 2022 being a midterm year, I expected Antifa et al to ramp up violence attacking republican campaign events at levels last seen during the 2016 and 2020 cycles. Though they did show up to some degree, violence was at a very suppressed level.
Antifa appeared to take this year to try to gain support from other movements – supporting environmental, LGBT (especially trans events), defending ‘homeless’, and conducting what they consider community support events for outcast causes.
On another level, components of Antifa have spent the time and efforts to militarize units with better kit and training. They have increasingly been willing to show up openly armed and looking for a fight - particularly when counter protesting LGBT/Trans events. This shows a serious upgrade in their willingness to go kinetic – a trend that I noted starting in the riots of 2020. This also indicates that they are taking training more seriously as their fire teams have to have discipline that their mob enforcers in 2020 didn’t. Taking a trip into the way back machine, the Berkeley riots, we saw core Antifa members setting up strike teams to physically assault opponents and fade back into the crowd. 2020 saw even more technical / tactical development in support and operation of the riots. 2022 see similar growth in their ‘doctrine’ and cannot be written off as a bunch of misfits living in momma’s basement any more.
Another facet of the growing threat of a hot civil war has been the massive population migrations in the country, with many conservatives fleeing blue states for red, making each either bluer or redder. This has resulted in a wider divide between Americans and a growing clamor for either a relatively peaceful ‘divorce’ or a violent separation. What has grown has been the open discursions of separation and break up of the country by BOTH sides of the political spectrum. Kalifornia, Oregon and Washington states have had red counties openly vote to switch to becoming part of Idaho or forming their own state, and these movements are growing in momentum. The left has fought to suppress these political movements because they would cause a significant changed in the political power in DC.
Finally, 2022 fully pulled the blanket off the intent of the fed govt to weaponize against the citizens. With biden calling nearly half of americans “terrorists”, the DoJ labeling parents protesting corrupt schoolboards as ‘domestic terrorists’, the DHS considering white, Christian, conservative to be ‘domestic terrorists’ and the greatest threat to the country has only been the starters.
DoJ has openly used a willing FBI as a defacto Stasi like political enforcement arm to stage show arrests of biden political opponents. Even willing to raid Trumps home in Florida in a show raid. The brazenness of the FBI actions, combined with the selective justice from the DoJ has shifted public opinion of the agencies towards that of distrust. The year ended with the massive Twitter Files further exposing the overt actions of these govt agencies against regime opponents and contra narrative speech. See Cancel Culture below for more.
Other overt actions by the govt against citizens include using the USPS to spy, working around clear laws against such surveillance. Growth and expansion of the IRS, most likely to pressure citizens to comply with the narrative over ESG related standards. Gross negligence by DHS in controlling the border (a WEF goal) and the medical tyranny that disrupted the country in many, many ways.
It has been increasingly evident that the biden regime is seeking to create a situation where the right finally says enough as a reason to crackdown on its opponents. Much of that effort is focused on the persecution of Trump, knowing that they have a likelihood of triggering a response from their actions while trying to maintain a veneer of legitimate law enforcement.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Conservatives continued to be suppressed by Big Tech throughout most of the year. The biggest event occurred in just the past couple months with Musk purchasing Twitter and is in the process of exposing govt corruption in censoring the first amendment views of Americans on many subjects. I won’t try to detail the Twitter Files other to say that govt control of that platform – as well as the other platforms like Facistbook, google et al is down right despicable. Govt actions are bordering on the criminal, yet the regime will not pursue it. Heck even the MSM is silent on the Files. Govt actions to influence the elections, silence open and honest debate on wuhan responses, open attempts to go after a seated president and more.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This year was dominated by the eGOP pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in the midterms. It was incredible passiveness and an outright hatred of Trump endorsed candidates that caused the republicans to flip the house by a very small majority and the senate republicans to lose seats.
The eGOP sees the fruit of their efforts to neutralize Trump as an indicator that Trump is a negative influence and on the senate side turned the republican representation from red to purple. Evidenced by the significant republican support for the LGBT ‘marriage’ bill and now the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion CR through the end of FY23 – effectively sealing out house republican influence on the budget for effectively half of the new term.
Further on the political front was the illegitimate hearings on the J6 events. In the finest manner of communist show trials – the ultimate goal was to try to charge Trump with felonies to stop his re-election bid in 2024 as well as wipe him off the political map.
Added to this was congress’ successfully getting their hands on Trumps tax returns and sending them right out to the press, and failing to get the desired hit on Trump.
Parallel to this was the DoJ’s raid on Trumps home in Florida which has turned out to be a nothing burger and now the appointment of a documented anti-Trump DoJ attorney as a Special Prosecutor to investigate Trump crimes ranging from mishandling classified material to J6 related charges.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
This category has been relatively calm this past year, though not totally quiet. Great concern over the uncontrolled influx of illegals, some designated terrorists were apprehended.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Numerous deployments in the major hot spot regions of Taiwan and Ukraine. Biggest has been the huge amount of equipment and munitions supplied to Ukraine.
Recruitment by the armed forces has suffered greatly this year, due in part IMHO by the aggressive WOKE agenda of the DoD being forced on the military and the illegal forcing of wuhan jabs. The jab is illegal because the DoD forced the unapproved version on the soldiers and not the ‘approved’ version, in addition to blanket denials of medical and religious objections. To make up for the short fall, services are opening enlistment up for lesser qualified individuals with lower scholastic scores. This does not bode well for the future of our military.
Cyber Warfare –
This category has been relatively low intensity this year as well. Most notable have been ransomware attacks that have attacked some sectors. The Ukraine war instigated hacking by Russian-affiliated groups towards the US with limited effects.
China –
This may have been a pivotal year for China. Its economy has been struggling due to the vast zero covid policy that locked down millions this year – putting the breaks on productions. Lockdown were so bad that serious protests broke out across China – nearing the Tiananmen Square levels that have forced China to back off its enforcement.
The Evergrande disaster hit the property and equity markets hard – and still an elephant in the room for China.
In spite of this Xi was elected to essentially a permanent role as president of the county and began the shift from a more capitalistic economy back to a more socialist – directed system. With the cementation of his position things have also quickly shifted.
First is Taiwan. Following pelosi’s visit in August, China ramped up its military pressure by essentially “soft” blockading the island for about a week via military exercises surrounding the island. Combined with western focus on Ukraine and under the table dealings with Russia and the perception that the US is weaking as a military power China appears to have flipped the switch to move forwards with an eventual confrontation over Taiwan. More and more Chinese miltary aircraft and ships are penetrating into Taiwan’s defense zone in what appear to be practice runs for an eventual attack. China has also been testing the use of civilian ferry boats to move military forces. Overall China is on a trajectory to make some kind of move as early as 2023. China’s options still seem to be –
- Using threats to get Taiwan to capitulate
- Seizure of Taiwan administered islands off the Chinese coast for further pressure
- Blockade of Taiwan to force capitulation – moderate chance of conflict with US/allies to break the blockade
- Invasion of Taiwan – Highest risk of US/Allies involvement
There is room for some mixture of the above tactics.
The other event is their alignment with Russia regarding the Ukraine war. China has watching its steps closely to avoid overt material support – which would bring sanctions that would hurt its struggling economy. But it is working to exploit the chaotic petroleum markets and other supply disruptions to try to put together a global currency challenge to the dollar as a means of economic war against the US as well as being able to work around any potential sanctions resulting from Russian support or actions taken against Taiwan. This is a short and long term effort that will see growth in 2023.
North/South Korea –
NK suffered immensely from the wuhan lockdowns and was on the brink of a major famine the first half of the year. Only when the border was reopened to China did the crisis decline.
With the election of a more aggressive towards NK administration in SK, it appeared that NK decided it was a good time to do some poking – invoking essentially knee-jerk responses from SK and the US. This has been a record year for NK missile launches and it shows no sign of slowing down.
One significant note was the test of an potentially ICBM capable missile that could range all of the US. The other side being the need for a warhead that the missile could carry. NK has reopened its underground test facility and can conduct another test when it wants.
Kim created a stir early in the year over health concerns, when he dropped out of sight for a number of months. When he re-appeared, he has lost a notable amount of weight. Most think he had heart problems and was hospitalized during that time.
Japan –
Japan has jump started its miliary buildup to meet growing challenges from China and NK. It is increasingly joining in with other western Pacific nations in exercises designed to prepare for that conflict.
Russia - Ukraine
After monitoring the military buildup in the 2021 and 2022 TMs and tracking the war this year the claim that Russia was a dominant force was essentially turned into a myth.
It amassed a battle force of 70+ battalion battle groups (BTGs) for the initial invasion with putin choosing the most dangerous goal of trying to capture the whole country. It didn’t go well from the start. The drive towards Kyiv, thought by Russian planners to be accomplished in less than a week turned into a quagmire in days. Eventually, in the face of heavy losses from a tenacious Ukrainian defense, they were forced to retreat and concentrate their attacks in the south to secure the Donbas region.
That battle for the Donbas didn’t turn out well either. Following some pyretic victories by Russia, the logistical lessons they should have learned in the fight for Kyiv caught up to them, made worse by the arrival of HIMARS and Ukraine’s new ability to strike deep at CP’s, logistical and troop concentrations. Ukraine broke the Russian lines in the Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a route of Russian forces that resulted in the loss of considerable territories as well as key logistical points that forced fighting further south to stall out.
At the same time, Ukraine was positioning for an offensive to retake Kherson Oblast on the western side of the Dnipir River, forcing Russia to face war on two fronts. Surgical strikes by Ukraine took out bridges, command, ammo dumps and troop concentrations - virtually isolating Russian forces. The Ukrainian Kherson threat also threatened Crimea, causing Russia to rush reinforcements to the region, denying them in the east. Probably the final straw for Russia was the truck bomb that took out the Kerch Strait bridge – denying that logistical supply route to southern Ukraine. Russia withdrew and has maintained a higher concentration of troops in the eastern Kherson Oblast out of concern of a Ukraine offensive into Crimea.
Russia displayed many other significant failures from the start. One of the biggest has been the failure to gain air superiority and dominance. Ukrainian air defenses have denied Russian air power to key areas of the battle field and Ukrainian air force elements have been able to fly CAS missions in support of ground forces.
The second major failure is the essential neutering of the Black Sea fleet. Starting off with a hit on a couple amphibious assault ships, to the sinking of the flag ship Moskva and the loss of Snake Island, the Black Sea fleet has been relegated to shooting cruise missiles. The amphibious threat against Odessa is essentially nil due to the losses of other amphibious vessels and the enhanced anti-ship missile batteries awaiting any approach by the Russian navy. That is if Russia even has enough soldiers to load into any amphib ship for an attack. The Russian desire for a ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria were dashed.
Ukraine has shown remarkable imagination in striking Russian assets. Starting with the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, to drone strikes on Crimean air bases, to sea borne drone strikes on Crimean naval bases to using ancient 1950s jet drones to strike Russian airbases used to launch strategic bombers that fire cruise missies at Ukraine.
Russia has found one formula that has been winning – hitting the power grid as winter starts in. Russia however at this stage of the war is finding itself short of the missiles necessary to maximize the tactic. Russia is looking to Iran to supply the drones and missiles needed for its war efforts.
Today, the battle is centered in eastern Ukraine with both sides preparing for offensive operations once the temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground and permit better cross country mobility. Ukraine currently has the edge for winter fighting.
Last, Russia nuclear rhetoric has been loud and hot since last year. Although there is no unclassified evidence that Russia is about to launch either a tactical or strategic strike, putin observers consider it to be a very real possibility should the war effort continue to go south and he feels his position threatened.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Initially a concern, the Russian garrison in Transnistria has only served to be a body pool once the Russian effort to obtain a ‘land bridge’ fell apart with the failure of the Black Sea fleet and Ukrainian resistance on the ground.
Belarus -
Originally on the TM radar screen because it was helping moslem immigrants get into Poland and the potential for a fight there, Belarus permitted Russian to stage for its attack on Kyiv as well as has allowed stationing of Russian fighter aircraft and missile units to fire into Ukraine.
Putin has continually applied pressure to get the Belarus army to more directly join the fight, but is has resisted every time because the public as well as the military are just flat out resistant to the idea and could result in a coup attempt.
Poland –
One of the lead voices in the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine. It has been serving as the main logistical supply points for aid to Ukraine.
EU/Nato response to the Ukaine has been mixed. The Ukraine war has brought in two new nations in the final process of membership to NATO – Finland and Sweden. Long term commitment to Ukraine is still in place.
The Ukraine war turned European energy supplies upside down, especially with the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2. Germany, France and England all had to quickly revert to coal because the ‘green’ sources were totally inadequate. Long term industrial capacity – especially for Germany – and the associated economic hit may be Russia’s biggest gain against the west. Combined with all the other economic woes, Europe’s economy could face serious issues in a global recession.
Europe has also be a key player in many of the WEF’s what I call “beta” testing on items like digital passports/vaccination certificates, move to digital currency, radical actions to meet greenhouse gas emission goals. King Charles, France’s Macron and other govt officials in the EU are in the highest circles of the WEF and have been pushing the implementation of their policies at an accelerated rate using the emergency created by wuhan plandemic.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
This has flared up of recent, with Russia supporting Serbs aggressive stance and threat of war against Kosovo and NATO. Still simmering, but such an action would divert a lot of NATO attention and supplies from going to Ukraine. If tied to a Russian offensive of some kind, could grant them a degree of advantage.
Pakistan –
Pakistan is facing a three-fold problem, crashed economy, political turmoil and increasing terror/competion from Pakistani Taliban elements.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing a middleman role of late. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas. It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
Central / South America General-
Leftist elements have been on the move expanding the number of countries that they control. These will eventually turn hostile toward the US and be more open to advances from China.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
India has also been favoring Russia in the Ukraine War, due largely to the supply of cheap oil from Russia.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
Interesting as usual - thanks.
This may be my last post of 2022 as I’ll be busy setting up for TM 2023.
Wuhan virus –
A peer-reviewed study published by a group of leading German pathologists showed that autopsy findings in people who died unexpectedly within 20 days of getting injected with mRNA Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine showed clear indication of myocardiocyte destruction, or damaged heart muscle cells. There are clearly visible lymphocytes that are not supposed to be there.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
Economy –
SUMMARY –
Final figures on Christmas spending are starting to come out and it is a mixed bag. Retail sales ended up being 7.6% higher for Christmas 2022 than for Christmas 2021. While that sounds like a good sign that Americans spent more, it isn’t because they are more prosperous.
They spent more because everything costs more. Inflation, officially up by 5.5%, has created artificial hope for those who look at the statistics without context. Due to inflation, people ended up buying less and paying more for it. Making matters worse, much of the increase in spending was done by increasing credit card debt.
Brick and mortar stores suffered decreased sales as on-line purchases increased.
GasBuddy in their end of year preview for 2023 project bad news for consumers.
“The national average price of gas could cool early in the year as demand remains seasonally weak,” GasBuddy’s forecast explains, “followed by a rise that starts in late winter, bringing prices to the $4 per gallon range in time for summer.” Additionally, “areas of California like San Francisco and Los Angeles could again experience near $7 gas prices again in the summer of 2023 if refineries struggle under mandates of unique formulations of gasoline.”
Meanwhile, the average pump price nationwide ticked up for the second consecutive day Wednesday, hitting $3.13 per gallon, according to a AAA database. And Tuesday the West Texas Intermediate index, the U.S. oil benchmark, increased 1% to more than $80 per barrel and the Brent crude index, the top global oil benchmark, increased 2% past $85.50 per barrel.
OBSERVATION – Extreme volatility in the market can further cause supply and accompanying price increases. 2023 is not showing any signs of settling down and in fact may be more tumultuous than 2022.
IN RELATED - The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to its lowest level since 1983 last week as U.S. gasoline prices and oil prices ticked up, according to federal data released Wednesday.
The level of the SPR — an emergency stockpile of crude oil managed by the Department of Energy (DOE)— declined to 375.1 million barrels last week, marking the first time it has fallen below 378 million barrels since December 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prior to last week, the reserve’s lowest level since 1983 was recorded on Dec. 30, 1983, when it hit 378.3 million barrels.
Invasion of Illegals –
Migrant crossings have plummeted in a mile-long stretch of Downtown El Paso where the Texas Army National Guard has set up concertina wire and portable fencing along the Rio Grande. The success has been partially attributed to attributed the fence having a “visual deterrent” of the barbwire, parked Humvees and soldiers patrolling the area with their semi-automatic rifles.
OBSERVATION – That will until the illegals realize that those soldiers will not fire on them when they attempt to breach the concertina barrier with wire cutters. However, at this stage there are plenty other unprotected stretches of the border the illegals can penetrate through.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) admitted it has “no records” of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants released into the country with electronic tracking devices, the agency said in a Dec. 22 letter to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).
ICE informed TRAC that it had “no records” of the 377,980 individuals monitored by the agency’s “Alternatives to Detention” (ATD) program used to electronically track illegal immigrants released into the country. TRAC had asked for data via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on those in ATD custody from the start of fiscal year 2019 to August 2022.
OBSERVATION - This should not surprise no one. What better way to abdicate your responsibilities for enforcement than losing the records.
Biden / Harris watch –
The Federalist lists the top biden blunders for 2022 (and this is just a short list)
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Senate is meeting in a pro forma session to consider H.R. 350, the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2022. The bill would authorize domestic terrorism components of the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the FBI to monitor, investigate, and prosecute domestic terrorism. It would also create an interagency task force to combat white supremacist and neo-Nazi infiltration of the military and federal agencies.
OBSERVATION – We all know who is being targeted here – the noncompliant right. Also another purge being directed towards the military again as well. Once again, govt being moved to strike out against the citizens.
Queens, NY - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promoted a Far Left flyer for a “direct action” protection of a “drag queen story hour for kids.” Participants are requested to wear regular clothes and a mask, to bring rainbow swag, non-amplified noise makers, and musical instruments. Antifa counter-protestors showed up and violently attacked the story hour protestors with several hurt.
OBSERVATION – Actions by this congress critter to provoke violence should result in censure and other actions – perhaps lawsuits by those injured by Antifa.
7 Years after Police shot LaVoy Finicum in back, his family asks Supreme Court to hear their case of wrongful death.
OBSERVATION – Not sure how this will pan out. The USSC may well be inclined to reject the appeal, unless Finicum’s family can solidly present evidence of govt surpression of their rights. The Malheur standoff and the violent end of Finicum under highly suspicious methods used by the FBI put a chill in the direct actions of many anti-govt elements /patriot groups in the west. It became apparent that the govt planted a considerable number of informers and even agent provocateurs into the group. It was payback time for their embarrassment in the standoff in Nevada just a few years prior. Patriot groups still haven’t learned their lesson from this event, as in recent years informants and agent provocateurs have been used by the FBI to frame and arrest many.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is facing stiff resistance in his bid for Speaker of the House due to the narrow majority Republicans will hold in January. Five House Republicans have signaled opposition to McCarthy and he can only afford to lose four votes from his party in the Speaker of the House vote on January 3d, 2023.
Disgraced cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried met with four Biden officials this year before the collapse of his FTX empire and his arrest in the Bahamas.
The Democratic donor, 30, awaiting trial for what prosecutors say is one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history held talks with senior White House advisor Steve Ricchetti on September 8, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
He has had at least two other meetings with Ricchetti on April 22 and May 12 and another with top aide Bruce Reed. Bankman-Fried’s brother Gabriel also participated in a meeting on his own on May 13.
The latest report is further evidence of the deep ties Bankman-Fried had with Washington before he was charged with swindling investors out of at least $1.8 billion.
The White House has refused to say whether Biden will give back some of the $5.2 million in donations from the fallen FTX founder gave to his campaign and connected groups in 2020.
OBSERVATION - Overt criminality of the regime - and nothing will ever be done.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Current US naval posture in the western Pacific.
- USS Reagan CSG is at port in Yokosuka, Japan.
- - USS Nimitz CSG is exercising NW of the Phillippines.
- USS America amphib group at port in Sasebo, Japan
- Makin Island ARG currently underway in the Java Sea after completing Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT)/Marine Exercise (MAREX) Indonesia in Situbondo and Surabaya, Indonesia.
See China for potential growing threat against Taiwan that could affect these naval units.
US Army now accepting recruits with ADHD and other ‘behavioral problems’. The Pentagon said it plans to assess the effectiveness of its new program in six months’ time so that it has a year of data to study.
OBSERVATION – I had to deal with too many ‘problem children’ when in the Army. I can’t imagine having to deal with this level of problems – and the strong likelihood that their behavior will be protected by the idiots in the pentagon.
The Space Force has taken over all of the Department of Defense’s military satellite communication functions, a major step in building the new service.
The Navy and the Army have transferred major satellite communication operations to the Space Force in an effort to consolidate training, operations, acquisition and other activities, according to a news release. The transfer marks the first time all military satellite communication functions have been consolidated under a single military service.
The Army’s transfers were expected to include $78 million in operations, maintenance and 500 positions, the release said. As part of the consolidation, the Army transferred the Wideband Global SATCOM and Defense Satellite Communications System to the Space Force in August. The Wideband Global SATCOM system is considered the “backbone of the U.S. military’s global satellite communications,” according to the Space Force.
China –
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting on Friday to discuss their “no limits” strategic alliance. Xi urged Moscow to closely coordinate and cooperate with China on international affairs and supported Russia’s much publicized willingness to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine. Russian television reported that Putin and Xi also discussed efforts to strengthen military cooperation between their nations. Xi closed by saying, “China is ready to work with Russia and all progressive forces around the world that oppose hegemonism and power politics… and firmly defend the sovereignty, security and development interests of both countries and international justice.”
OBSERVATION – This cooperation is growing in the face of a weakening US foreign policy and probable economic recession. Both indicate weakness of the US to ‘fight’ a two front global/economic/political war.
In my last post I made the observation that –
“….China appears to have flipped the switch to move forwards with an eventual confrontation over Taiwan. More and more Chinese miltary aircraft and ships are penetrating into Taiwan’s defense zone in what appear to be practice runs for an eventual attack. China has also been testing the use of civilian ferry boats to move military forces. Overall China is on a trajectory to make some kind of move as early as 2023.”
Since making that post I’ve received more analysis/intelligence from “Forward Observer” and it notes –
“China may be positioning itself for a coercive military operation against Taiwan at the beginning of the Chinese New Year, which lasts from 22 to 29 January. These dates potentially coincide with a Russian winter offensive in Ukraine. Additionally, starting a blockade at the end of January would give China roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas.”
Observers are noting an increase in Chinese (and in some instances along with Russian participants) exercises around Taiwan in addition to the sharp increase in air and naval incursions into the islands defense zones. Last August/September China put into effect a ‘soft’ blockade around the island using ‘exercises’ as an excuse. The success of that operation may have strengthened its resolve to give the ‘go’ order to begin progressive operations to gain control of the island. Military exercises to position and gain initial control of the air and skies around the island. This could then progress to a ‘hard’ naval/air blockade to force Taiwan into using up its reserves and if that fails over the period, then sea conditions become favorable for a potential military assault.
Other indicators of increasing possibility of a Chinese escalation on Taiwan
- China has sailed one of its three aircraft carriers near the U.S. territory of Guam.
- The Chinese fleet, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, has recently conducted roughly 260 takeoff and landing drills near the Japanese island of Okinawa, home to a major U.S. military presence. The operations prompted the Japanese air force to scramble fighter jets and helicopters, as well as a destroyer and other elements of its self-defense forces.
- Joint naval exercises with Russia.
- Recent talks between Xi and putin that suggest that any Chinese attempt could be done in coordination with the expected Russian winter offensive – closely in the January 22 to 29 time frame.
Another factor that may be driving Xi to act sooner rather than later is “The U.S. is closing the hypersonic weapons gap with China – potentially neutralizing China’s advantage with its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) long-range fires network. Additionally, continued arms sales to Taiwan and Japan are producing a prickly allied defensive posture which could strike key industrial targets deep in China’s mainland in response to a move against Taiwan. The longer Xi waits, the more costly it will be for him to flex to the military option should the push for a negotiated reunification fail. “
If both Russian and Chinese actions kick off at the same time – the resulting chaos would give both an advantage and put them ahead of the OODA loop of US and allied responses.
WILDCARD – NK aggressive actions of recent could form an additional agent of chaos in the region, futher dividing attention of the US and allies.
CURRENTLY – FO has issued an initial 30 day warning of Chinese actions, and I cannot disagree with their reasoning.
Chinese aircraft are also becoming increasingly billigerant towards US aircraft. A Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to an American reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea, the US military said.
According to the US Indo-Pacifc Command Thursday, the incident occurred on December 21 when a Chinese Navy J-11 fighter pilot “performed an unsafe maneuver during an intercept” by flying six meters (20 feet) in front of a US Air Force RC-135 aircraft.
The American pilot was forced to take evasive maneuvers to avoid an accident, the armed forces said.
OBSERVATION – This is not the first time China has played ‘chicken’ with US aircraft and in particular airborne intelligence collection platforms. The Hainan Island incident occurred on April 1, 2001, when a United States Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals intelligence aircraft and a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) J-8II interceptor fighter jet collided in mid-air, resulting in an international dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China
Japan –
Japanese media reports that Hsieh Chang-ting, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Japan, is urging Japan to form a bilateral security cooperation with Taiwan. Hsieh reportedly said there is no guarantee that China would not strike Japan ahead of a move on Taiwan due to the many U.S. bases on the archipelago.
Japan is expanding its base on Yonaguni island, just 110 km from Taiwan, and adding a surface-to-air missile battery.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia’s continued missile assault on Ukraine is being viewed as an effort to shape the battlefield in advance of a winter offensive, attempting to sap the Ukrainian will to resist and fight.
Over the past several weeks, Russia has been letting out information on how it is going to reform its military. The army will revert back to divisions rather than brigades full of BTGs (Battalion Task Groups). The new army will purportedly consist of over 30 divisions and require complete re-equipping because most of what the 2021 army had was lost in Ukraine. In addition to replacing and updating equipment and hardware, this new Russian army t also new officers. Most of the army officers the army had in 2021 have already been killed, captured or disabled in Ukraine. These changes are not expected to be accomplished any time soon.
RUMINT
Putin abandoned a visit to Pskov, which is close to the border with NATO states Estonia and Latvia, claiming there were “unfavourable flying conditions” despite skies being clear. This is the second time in a week Putin has cancelled at the last minute a trip inside Russia.
The move is likely to increase speculation about his health, or concerns over his security.
Kerch Bridge update –
Authorities increased number of checkpoints at the Kerch Bridge, possible fearing another vehicle based bomb attack.
Logistics –
- Russia’s state-controlled United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced a new batch of Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighters had been delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to EurAsian Times.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as the mediator. “The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit because this is not about making a favor to a certain country,” Kuleba told the Associated Press in an interview. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.” Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first,
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Previous two days saw large cruise missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, hitting civilian and infrastructure targets. As ususal, Ukraine ADA took down most of them, however the numbers swamped the defenses and enough got through to do damage.
Ukraine has also increased artillery strikes in the Russian border regions in the east. There has been cross border shelling in the past, but the past couple of days the reported strikes have significantly increased.
Fighting continued to be concentrated around Bahkmut and around Kreminna, with gains made by Russia and Ukraine.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Ukranian forces are pressing around the southern side of Kreminna and gaining moderate ground. Reports are that Russia is hurrying forces to the region to bolster defenses. The fall of Kreminna would open up Russian rear areas and threaten the northern flank of the Russian front in Donbas.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut with the Russian Wagner forces reportedly receiving Russian airborne troops to support the attack. Mixed observations probably heavily ladened with propaganda – some believe that the Russian efforts to seize the town have crested and will not succeed in the near term – citing that most of the Russian attacks are squad sized combat elements what are not coordinated. Others say that Russia has maneuvered Ukrainian forces into an encirclement – trapping 50K Ukrainian soldiers. While it has been apparent that Russia has attempted an encirclement, the success is highly debatable.
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR other than scattered Russian shelling along the LOC.
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR – other than the missile / drone attacks of the past couple days.
Russian Territory –
Noted increase in Ukrainian shelling of Russia border areas over the past few days.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Increasing focus on the preparations for a winter offensive by both sides. A last week of January for Russia is the favored date – which may also coincide with a possible significant escalation by China towards Taiwan (See China above). It largely depends on how frozen the ground gets.
The standard conflict areas in the east will continue pretty much without much change.
It looks like Russia expended a considerable number of its cruise missiles and Iranian drones over the past couple days. If their pattern continues, it will take at least a week for them to restock their launch platforms (ships, aircraft and ground launch sites) for the next round. The missile strikes have done little against the military, but more focused on demoralizing the population, an effort that so far has not been achieving any success.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There are indicators of cooling tensions seen as Serbia revokes troop alert, removes some roadblocks along Kosovo border.
OBSERVATION – We’ve not seen the end of tension in this area as the Serbs could reverse course at any moment. This latest escapade could have been a test to gauge Kosovan and NATO response.
Israel –
The new Israeli govt was sworn in yesterday. Foremost in the coalition agreement was the issue of Israel’s territory. “The Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all areas of the Land of Israel,” the government said in its overall policy statement, promising to “promote and develop all parts of the Land of Israel.” The agreement went on to specify that this development policy would include Judea and Samaria. “The nation of Israel has a natural right to the Land of Israel,” section 118 of the coalition agreement stated.
OBSERVATION – biden administration in response to the new Israeli govt reiterated its goals of establishing a two-nation solution to the conflict.
This is also the most hawkish administration in a long time – increasing the chance of a direct attack against Iran.
Iran –
Death toll from nationwide protests in Iran over death of a young woman in police custody has risen to 476, according to a rights group. Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters have caused a surge in anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrations enter their fifteenth consecutive week.
Misc of Note –
If anyone talks about the ‘average’ kalifornia weather, they likely don’t know what they are talking about. Kaliforina swings from one extreme to the other – rarely ‘average’ Now after two severe drought years driven largely by an unusually strong La Nina, it appears that year 3 of the La Nina may be breaking down, opening the door to massive moisture flow into kalifornia as well as the rest of the west coast and even the desert southwest.
Currently meteorologists are forecasting a Category 4 ‘atmospheric river’ event for kalifornia, with three storms inbound. This rating means very high danger levels from flooding and other impacts. One forecast is calling for over 100 inches of snow in the mountains above 8000 feet, with 5+ inches of rains in the valley. While the current status of the state’s reservoir systems is good to go to handle these, I have concerns anyway.
The biggest is that these are ‘pineapple express’ related storms, with moisture and associated airmasses coming from the Hawaiian Island region – meaning warm and very moist. With over 100 inches of snow (very very rough estimate this represents an equivalent of 8 inches or more of equivalent of precipitation), a ‘rain on snow’ event could trigger mega flooding as high elevation rains melt and cause a combined runoff that would stress the states reservoir’s abilty to control. I saw the effects first hand in the winter of 1996-97 when runoff from such an event threatened to overtop some dams, broke levees, closed off Donner Pass / I-80 and isolated Sacramento for a couple days. 1996/97 was a close run thing, with Shasta Dam being able to max out its capacity and hold its discharge long enough for the flood crests downstream to subside, otherwise the flooding would have been far worse.
In the years since, improvements to dams like the Auxiliary spillway at Folsom Dam (a project I was pleased to be part of) and levee reinforcement have taken place. However, nature has a way of screwing up even our best efforts and with expansive growth in the central valley has resulted in residential subdivisions covering areas that were under as much as 20 feet of water in 1997.
Should the worst possible event happen - rain on snow – kalifornia could be worse off that when the drought was in full effect.