This may be my last post of 2022 as I’ll be busy setting up for TM 2023.
Wuhan virus –
A peer-reviewed study published by a group of leading German pathologists showed that autopsy findings in people who died unexpectedly within 20 days of getting injected with mRNA Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine showed clear indication of myocardiocyte destruction, or damaged heart muscle cells. There are clearly visible lymphocytes that are not supposed to be there.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
Economy –
SUMMARY –
Final figures on Christmas spending are starting to come out and it is a mixed bag. Retail sales ended up being 7.6% higher for Christmas 2022 than for Christmas 2021. While that sounds like a good sign that Americans spent more, it isn’t because they are more prosperous.
They spent more because everything costs more. Inflation, officially up by 5.5%, has created artificial hope for those who look at the statistics without context. Due to inflation, people ended up buying less and paying more for it. Making matters worse, much of the increase in spending was done by increasing credit card debt.
Brick and mortar stores suffered decreased sales as on-line purchases increased.
GasBuddy in their end of year preview for 2023 project bad news for consumers.
“The national average price of gas could cool early in the year as demand remains seasonally weak,” GasBuddy’s forecast explains, “followed by a rise that starts in late winter, bringing prices to the $4 per gallon range in time for summer.” Additionally, “areas of California like San Francisco and Los Angeles could again experience near $7 gas prices again in the summer of 2023 if refineries struggle under mandates of unique formulations of gasoline.”
Meanwhile, the average pump price nationwide ticked up for the second consecutive day Wednesday, hitting $3.13 per gallon, according to a AAA database. And Tuesday the West Texas Intermediate index, the U.S. oil benchmark, increased 1% to more than $80 per barrel and the Brent crude index, the top global oil benchmark, increased 2% past $85.50 per barrel.
OBSERVATION – Extreme volatility in the market can further cause supply and accompanying price increases. 2023 is not showing any signs of settling down and in fact may be more tumultuous than 2022.
IN RELATED - The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to its lowest level since 1983 last week as U.S. gasoline prices and oil prices ticked up, according to federal data released Wednesday.
The level of the SPR — an emergency stockpile of crude oil managed by the Department of Energy (DOE)— declined to 375.1 million barrels last week, marking the first time it has fallen below 378 million barrels since December 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prior to last week, the reserve’s lowest level since 1983 was recorded on Dec. 30, 1983, when it hit 378.3 million barrels.
Invasion of Illegals –
Migrant crossings have plummeted in a mile-long stretch of Downtown El Paso where the Texas Army National Guard has set up concertina wire and portable fencing along the Rio Grande. The success has been partially attributed to attributed the fence having a “visual deterrent” of the barbwire, parked Humvees and soldiers patrolling the area with their semi-automatic rifles.
OBSERVATION – That will until the illegals realize that those soldiers will not fire on them when they attempt to breach the concertina barrier with wire cutters. However, at this stage there are plenty other unprotected stretches of the border the illegals can penetrate through.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) admitted it has “no records” of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants released into the country with electronic tracking devices, the agency said in a Dec. 22 letter to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).
ICE informed TRAC that it had “no records” of the 377,980 individuals monitored by the agency’s “Alternatives to Detention” (ATD) program used to electronically track illegal immigrants released into the country. TRAC had asked for data via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on those in ATD custody from the start of fiscal year 2019 to August 2022.
OBSERVATION - This should not surprise no one. What better way to abdicate your responsibilities for enforcement than losing the records.
Biden / Harris watch –
The Federalist lists the top biden blunders for 2022 (and this is just a short list)
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Senate is meeting in a pro forma session to consider H.R. 350, the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2022. The bill would authorize domestic terrorism components of the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the FBI to monitor, investigate, and prosecute domestic terrorism. It would also create an interagency task force to combat white supremacist and neo-Nazi infiltration of the military and federal agencies.
OBSERVATION – We all know who is being targeted here – the noncompliant right. Also another purge being directed towards the military again as well. Once again, govt being moved to strike out against the citizens.
Queens, NY - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promoted a Far Left flyer for a “direct action” protection of a “drag queen story hour for kids.” Participants are requested to wear regular clothes and a mask, to bring rainbow swag, non-amplified noise makers, and musical instruments. Antifa counter-protestors showed up and violently attacked the story hour protestors with several hurt.
OBSERVATION – Actions by this congress critter to provoke violence should result in censure and other actions – perhaps lawsuits by those injured by Antifa.
7 Years after Police shot LaVoy Finicum in back, his family asks Supreme Court to hear their case of wrongful death.
OBSERVATION – Not sure how this will pan out. The USSC may well be inclined to reject the appeal, unless Finicum’s family can solidly present evidence of govt surpression of their rights. The Malheur standoff and the violent end of Finicum under highly suspicious methods used by the FBI put a chill in the direct actions of many anti-govt elements /patriot groups in the west. It became apparent that the govt planted a considerable number of informers and even agent provocateurs into the group. It was payback time for their embarrassment in the standoff in Nevada just a few years prior. Patriot groups still haven’t learned their lesson from this event, as in recent years informants and agent provocateurs have been used by the FBI to frame and arrest many.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is facing stiff resistance in his bid for Speaker of the House due to the narrow majority Republicans will hold in January. Five House Republicans have signaled opposition to McCarthy and he can only afford to lose four votes from his party in the Speaker of the House vote on January 3d, 2023.
Disgraced cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried met with four Biden officials this year before the collapse of his FTX empire and his arrest in the Bahamas.
The Democratic donor, 30, awaiting trial for what prosecutors say is one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history held talks with senior White House advisor Steve Ricchetti on September 8, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
He has had at least two other meetings with Ricchetti on April 22 and May 12 and another with top aide Bruce Reed. Bankman-Fried’s brother Gabriel also participated in a meeting on his own on May 13.
The latest report is further evidence of the deep ties Bankman-Fried had with Washington before he was charged with swindling investors out of at least $1.8 billion.
The White House has refused to say whether Biden will give back some of the $5.2 million in donations from the fallen FTX founder gave to his campaign and connected groups in 2020.
OBSERVATION - Overt criminality of the regime - and nothing will ever be done.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Current US naval posture in the western Pacific.
- USS Reagan CSG is at port in Yokosuka, Japan.
- - USS Nimitz CSG is exercising NW of the Phillippines.
- USS America amphib group at port in Sasebo, Japan
- Makin Island ARG currently underway in the Java Sea after completing Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT)/Marine Exercise (MAREX) Indonesia in Situbondo and Surabaya, Indonesia.
See China for potential growing threat against Taiwan that could affect these naval units.
US Army now accepting recruits with ADHD and other ‘behavioral problems’. The Pentagon said it plans to assess the effectiveness of its new program in six months’ time so that it has a year of data to study.
OBSERVATION – I had to deal with too many ‘problem children’ when in the Army. I can’t imagine having to deal with this level of problems – and the strong likelihood that their behavior will be protected by the idiots in the pentagon.
The Space Force has taken over all of the Department of Defense’s military satellite communication functions, a major step in building the new service.
The Navy and the Army have transferred major satellite communication operations to the Space Force in an effort to consolidate training, operations, acquisition and other activities, according to a news release. The transfer marks the first time all military satellite communication functions have been consolidated under a single military service.
The Army’s transfers were expected to include $78 million in operations, maintenance and 500 positions, the release said. As part of the consolidation, the Army transferred the Wideband Global SATCOM and Defense Satellite Communications System to the Space Force in August. The Wideband Global SATCOM system is considered the “backbone of the U.S. military’s global satellite communications,” according to the Space Force.
China –
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting on Friday to discuss their “no limits” strategic alliance. Xi urged Moscow to closely coordinate and cooperate with China on international affairs and supported Russia’s much publicized willingness to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine. Russian television reported that Putin and Xi also discussed efforts to strengthen military cooperation between their nations. Xi closed by saying, “China is ready to work with Russia and all progressive forces around the world that oppose hegemonism and power politics… and firmly defend the sovereignty, security and development interests of both countries and international justice.”
OBSERVATION – This cooperation is growing in the face of a weakening US foreign policy and probable economic recession. Both indicate weakness of the US to ‘fight’ a two front global/economic/political war.
In my last post I made the observation that –
“….China appears to have flipped the switch to move forwards with an eventual confrontation over Taiwan. More and more Chinese miltary aircraft and ships are penetrating into Taiwan’s defense zone in what appear to be practice runs for an eventual attack. China has also been testing the use of civilian ferry boats to move military forces. Overall China is on a trajectory to make some kind of move as early as 2023.”
Since making that post I’ve received more analysis/intelligence from “Forward Observer” and it notes –
“China may be positioning itself for a coercive military operation against Taiwan at the beginning of the Chinese New Year, which lasts from 22 to 29 January. These dates potentially coincide with a Russian winter offensive in Ukraine. Additionally, starting a blockade at the end of January would give China roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas.”
Observers are noting an increase in Chinese (and in some instances along with Russian participants) exercises around Taiwan in addition to the sharp increase in air and naval incursions into the islands defense zones. Last August/September China put into effect a ‘soft’ blockade around the island using ‘exercises’ as an excuse. The success of that operation may have strengthened its resolve to give the ‘go’ order to begin progressive operations to gain control of the island. Military exercises to position and gain initial control of the air and skies around the island. This could then progress to a ‘hard’ naval/air blockade to force Taiwan into using up its reserves and if that fails over the period, then sea conditions become favorable for a potential military assault.
Other indicators of increasing possibility of a Chinese escalation on Taiwan
- China has sailed one of its three aircraft carriers near the U.S. territory of Guam.
- The Chinese fleet, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, has recently conducted roughly 260 takeoff and landing drills near the Japanese island of Okinawa, home to a major U.S. military presence. The operations prompted the Japanese air force to scramble fighter jets and helicopters, as well as a destroyer and other elements of its self-defense forces.
- Joint naval exercises with Russia.
- Recent talks between Xi and putin that suggest that any Chinese attempt could be done in coordination with the expected Russian winter offensive – closely in the January 22 to 29 time frame.
Another factor that may be driving Xi to act sooner rather than later is “The U.S. is closing the hypersonic weapons gap with China – potentially neutralizing China’s advantage with its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) long-range fires network. Additionally, continued arms sales to Taiwan and Japan are producing a prickly allied defensive posture which could strike key industrial targets deep in China’s mainland in response to a move against Taiwan. The longer Xi waits, the more costly it will be for him to flex to the military option should the push for a negotiated reunification fail. “
If both Russian and Chinese actions kick off at the same time – the resulting chaos would give both an advantage and put them ahead of the OODA loop of US and allied responses.
WILDCARD – NK aggressive actions of recent could form an additional agent of chaos in the region, futher dividing attention of the US and allies.
CURRENTLY – FO has issued an initial 30 day warning of Chinese actions, and I cannot disagree with their reasoning.
Chinese aircraft are also becoming increasingly billigerant towards US aircraft. A Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to an American reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea, the US military said.
According to the US Indo-Pacifc Command Thursday, the incident occurred on December 21 when a Chinese Navy J-11 fighter pilot “performed an unsafe maneuver during an intercept” by flying six meters (20 feet) in front of a US Air Force RC-135 aircraft.
The American pilot was forced to take evasive maneuvers to avoid an accident, the armed forces said.
OBSERVATION – This is not the first time China has played ‘chicken’ with US aircraft and in particular airborne intelligence collection platforms. The Hainan Island incident occurred on April 1, 2001, when a United States Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals intelligence aircraft and a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) J-8II interceptor fighter jet collided in mid-air, resulting in an international dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China
Japan –
Japanese media reports that Hsieh Chang-ting, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Japan, is urging Japan to form a bilateral security cooperation with Taiwan. Hsieh reportedly said there is no guarantee that China would not strike Japan ahead of a move on Taiwan due to the many U.S. bases on the archipelago.
Japan is expanding its base on Yonaguni island, just 110 km from Taiwan, and adding a surface-to-air missile battery.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia’s continued missile assault on Ukraine is being viewed as an effort to shape the battlefield in advance of a winter offensive, attempting to sap the Ukrainian will to resist and fight.
Over the past several weeks, Russia has been letting out information on how it is going to reform its military. The army will revert back to divisions rather than brigades full of BTGs (Battalion Task Groups). The new army will purportedly consist of over 30 divisions and require complete re-equipping because most of what the 2021 army had was lost in Ukraine. In addition to replacing and updating equipment and hardware, this new Russian army t also new officers. Most of the army officers the army had in 2021 have already been killed, captured or disabled in Ukraine. These changes are not expected to be accomplished any time soon.
RUMINT
Putin abandoned a visit to Pskov, which is close to the border with NATO states Estonia and Latvia, claiming there were “unfavourable flying conditions” despite skies being clear. This is the second time in a week Putin has cancelled at the last minute a trip inside Russia.
The move is likely to increase speculation about his health, or concerns over his security.
Kerch Bridge update –
Authorities increased number of checkpoints at the Kerch Bridge, possible fearing another vehicle based bomb attack.
Logistics –
- Russia’s state-controlled United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced a new batch of Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighters had been delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to EurAsian Times.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as the mediator. “The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit because this is not about making a favor to a certain country,” Kuleba told the Associated Press in an interview. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.” Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first,
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Previous two days saw large cruise missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, hitting civilian and infrastructure targets. As ususal, Ukraine ADA took down most of them, however the numbers swamped the defenses and enough got through to do damage.
Ukraine has also increased artillery strikes in the Russian border regions in the east. There has been cross border shelling in the past, but the past couple of days the reported strikes have significantly increased.
Fighting continued to be concentrated around Bahkmut and around Kreminna, with gains made by Russia and Ukraine.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Ukranian forces are pressing around the southern side of Kreminna and gaining moderate ground. Reports are that Russia is hurrying forces to the region to bolster defenses. The fall of Kreminna would open up Russian rear areas and threaten the northern flank of the Russian front in Donbas.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut with the Russian Wagner forces reportedly receiving Russian airborne troops to support the attack. Mixed observations probably heavily ladened with propaganda – some believe that the Russian efforts to seize the town have crested and will not succeed in the near term – citing that most of the Russian attacks are squad sized combat elements what are not coordinated. Others say that Russia has maneuvered Ukrainian forces into an encirclement – trapping 50K Ukrainian soldiers. While it has been apparent that Russia has attempted an encirclement, the success is highly debatable.
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR other than scattered Russian shelling along the LOC.
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR – other than the missile / drone attacks of the past couple days.
Russian Territory –
Noted increase in Ukrainian shelling of Russia border areas over the past few days.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Increasing focus on the preparations for a winter offensive by both sides. A last week of January for Russia is the favored date – which may also coincide with a possible significant escalation by China towards Taiwan (See China above). It largely depends on how frozen the ground gets.
The standard conflict areas in the east will continue pretty much without much change.
It looks like Russia expended a considerable number of its cruise missiles and Iranian drones over the past couple days. If their pattern continues, it will take at least a week for them to restock their launch platforms (ships, aircraft and ground launch sites) for the next round. The missile strikes have done little against the military, but more focused on demoralizing the population, an effort that so far has not been achieving any success.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There are indicators of cooling tensions seen as Serbia revokes troop alert, removes some roadblocks along Kosovo border.
OBSERVATION – We’ve not seen the end of tension in this area as the Serbs could reverse course at any moment. This latest escapade could have been a test to gauge Kosovan and NATO response.
Israel –
The new Israeli govt was sworn in yesterday. Foremost in the coalition agreement was the issue of Israel’s territory. “The Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all areas of the Land of Israel,” the government said in its overall policy statement, promising to “promote and develop all parts of the Land of Israel.” The agreement went on to specify that this development policy would include Judea and Samaria. “The nation of Israel has a natural right to the Land of Israel,” section 118 of the coalition agreement stated.
OBSERVATION – biden administration in response to the new Israeli govt reiterated its goals of establishing a two-nation solution to the conflict.
This is also the most hawkish administration in a long time – increasing the chance of a direct attack against Iran.
Iran –
Death toll from nationwide protests in Iran over death of a young woman in police custody has risen to 476, according to a rights group. Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters have caused a surge in anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrations enter their fifteenth consecutive week.
Misc of Note –
If anyone talks about the ‘average’ kalifornia weather, they likely don’t know what they are talking about. Kaliforina swings from one extreme to the other – rarely ‘average’ Now after two severe drought years driven largely by an unusually strong La Nina, it appears that year 3 of the La Nina may be breaking down, opening the door to massive moisture flow into kalifornia as well as the rest of the west coast and even the desert southwest.
Currently meteorologists are forecasting a Category 4 ‘atmospheric river’ event for kalifornia, with three storms inbound. This rating means very high danger levels from flooding and other impacts. One forecast is calling for over 100 inches of snow in the mountains above 8000 feet, with 5+ inches of rains in the valley. While the current status of the state’s reservoir systems is good to go to handle these, I have concerns anyway.
The biggest is that these are ‘pineapple express’ related storms, with moisture and associated airmasses coming from the Hawaiian Island region – meaning warm and very moist. With over 100 inches of snow (very very rough estimate this represents an equivalent of 8 inches or more of equivalent of precipitation), a ‘rain on snow’ event could trigger mega flooding as high elevation rains melt and cause a combined runoff that would stress the states reservoir’s abilty to control. I saw the effects first hand in the winter of 1996-97 when runoff from such an event threatened to overtop some dams, broke levees, closed off Donner Pass / I-80 and isolated Sacramento for a couple days. 1996/97 was a close run thing, with Shasta Dam being able to max out its capacity and hold its discharge long enough for the flood crests downstream to subside, otherwise the flooding would have been far worse.
In the years since, improvements to dams like the Auxiliary spillway at Folsom Dam (a project I was pleased to be part of) and levee reinforcement have taken place. However, nature has a way of screwing up even our best efforts and with expansive growth in the central valley has resulted in residential subdivisions covering areas that were under as much as 20 feet of water in 1997.
Should the worst possible event happen - rain on snow – kalifornia could be worse off that when the drought was in full effect.
I'm surprised Iran's not part of the action yet. Biden's united our enemies against us. Hope corrupt 'intelligence' thugs get their 30 pieces of silver off this horror.
Thank you so much for your posts. I always find news I have not seen. Happy New Year!