Replies

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, took a couple days off in celebration.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Germany’s Federal Network Agency, a watchdog that regulates electricity and gas in the country, said the plan would allow the power grid operators to remotely limit people’s use of heat pumps and electric car chargers next winter without the user’s consent.
The plans, set to be in place by January 2024, will give energy grid operators the power to artificially curb electricity demand if consumption outstrips supply.
Die Welt reported that the plans had been drawn up in the wake of the German energy grid being put under more strain due to the increasing use of electric car chargers and people using supposed ‘environmentally friendly’ electricity-intense heat pumps in their homes.
The increased demand cannot be caught up to with increased supply, meaning the government believes that remote consumption restrictions are the only solution.

OBSERVATION – Note the last line – cannot catch up with increased supply. This is quite the intentional lie. Germany has been carrying the water for much of the GGR’s beta testing efforts to enforce its global warming goals and is reaping the consequences in a major way this winter – in part due to loss of gas from Russia. Europe HAS the resources, they have just been locked away by the globalists to force their green agenda on the populus.

Wuhan virus –

See China below re: 250 Million infected

Economy –

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its food price inflation estimate to between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2023. The USDA increased its forecast for egg prices in 2023 to 4% to 5%, citing the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak affecting U.S. poultry farmers.

OBSERVATION – This is highly dependent on things going well this next year, with no other disasters (natural or man made) impacting agriculture.

Lumber prices hit an all-time low after homebuilder sentiment tumbled for the twelfth straight month in December. The building commodity peaked at $1,336 per thousand board feet in late February, but has settled to around $379, as of Dec. 22, to its lowest level since the pandemic in June 2020.

The price of lumber is down by 72 percent from this earlier year’s peak, largely due to rising mortgage rates, a decline in housing activity, low builder confidence, and fears of recession, which together have lowered sales.

OBSERVATION - These lower prices are unlikely to springboard the housing market back into the positive side. Inflation in general and the high mortgage rates for new loans will continue to keep the market depressed and the verge of implosion.

Invasion of Illegals –

NOTE - The rampaging Kurds in Paris should bring pause to Americans here with the surge of illegals filling our country. Many have noted that they are predominantly military aged men. What would stop them from starting similar rioting?

U.S. Customs and Border Protection waited until Christmas weekend to announce that it encountered 233,740 migrants illegally crossing the southwest border in November, as overwhelmed border agents say the problem has become unmanageable.
“Today, even before the end of Title 42, apprehensions are eight times higher than manageable,” Brandon Judd, the president of the National Border Patrol Council, wrote in an opinion piece on Dec. 20.
The 233,740 encounters in November 2022 is the third highest monthly total on record, behind the record 241,136 monthly encounters in May and 235,785 in April. It is up one percent from October’s elevated level of 231,294. But it’s up 33.68 percent from 174,845 a year ago November; and up 224.13 percent from 72,113 in November 2020.

CW2/Domestic violence –

NOTE – The vandalism/damage to power substations may be tests by elements to see how easy to shut power down or identify efficient ways of doing so while also gauging law enforcement response times.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

New Twitter File drop expanding on other govt agencies using the FBI as an intermediary to direct Twitter to censor posts.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Twitter CEO Elon Musk appeared on the All-In podcast and said that “every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true.”
“Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that didn’t turn out to be true?” Musk said. “So far they’ve all turned out to be true, and if not more true than people thought.”

OBSERVATION – Nothing will happen, no one go to jail over the use of twitter to silence americans a la 1984.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Judge Peter A. Thompson ruled against Kari Lake and in favor of the defendants on all counts on December 24 2022.

OBSERVATION – Surprised and not surprised. The liberal ( and some conservative ) judges cannot allow the wall to crack on probable voter fraud.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

14,000 power customers in Tacoma, Washington experienced blackouts after three power substations were vandalized on Christmas Day. The Pierce County Sheriff’s Department said two Tacoma Public Utilities substations and one Puget Sound Energy substation were vandalized. The department said it is unknown if the incidents were coordinated. This follows six similar attacks on power substations in the state in November and attacks on Duke Energy substations in North and South Carolina earlier this month.

OBSERVATION – Hard to rule out potential terror test runs, but other potentials include ‘copy cat’ vandalism.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Biden administration has neglected to pay numerous National Guard troops their year-end paycheck on time during the week of Christmas.
This delay is taking place after the House approved the controversial additional $45 billion aid package to Ukraine, and a $1.7 trillion spending plan.

OBSERVATION – Just more evidence of the callousness the regime has towards the military in general, and the National Guard in specific.

China –

Taiwan Ministry of Defense - 71 PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected in our surrounding region yesterday. 47 crossed the median line in the Taiwanese strait and entered the ADZ. This is the largest incursion to date. Also, a large number of Chinese naval vessels are also participating in the military exercises, including China’s carrier strike groups.

OBSERVATION – This level of activity by the Chinese air force is pushing the threat indicators deep into the yellow zone. Described by China as ‘war drills’, they indicate that China may be transitioning from harassment to more of a very direct threat mode. In short, these drills may be setting the stage for either an aggressive blockade of the island or an outright invasion.

Difficult to confirm reports that over the course of the past week, as many as 250 million Chinese have come down with wuhan. That’s nearly 1/4th the country’s population. This follows China’s loosening of their ‘zero-covid’ program of aggressive lockdowns.

OBSERVATION - The persistence of infections continues to be a drag on its economy. Things have gotten so bad that companies are moving production to other countries with more dependable conditions .

North/South Korea –

NK intruded into SK airspace with as many as 5 drones, one of which flew as far south as Seoul. SK military was caught off guard and may have only downed one of the drones. SK retaliated by sending a drone of its own across the border into NK, and returned it safely. The last time NK did anything like this was about 5 years ago.

OBSERVATION - This is clearly an embarrassment to the SK govt and miliary – essentially being caught flat footed and having an ineffective response to the incursion. The harsh reality of modern drone warfare – seen so much lately in Ukraine – is a dramatic change of actions by NK.
This escalation is particularly dangerous, though there is no indicators of an impending attack by the north. This could indicate a new stage of incitement by the north to supplement its very busy missile launching operations of 2022.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced over the weekend that Russia was ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but complained that Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks.

OBSERVATION - This ‘offer’ is considered to be disingenuous and an delay attempt to allow Russia breathing space to reconsolidate and reinforce its miliary for an anticipated attempt to resume the offensive to take the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Vice-President of “Vladmirsky Standart” company and MP of Vladimir legislative assembly Pavel Antov has died after falling out of the window of hotel in Rayagada, Odisha, India

OBSERVATION – In America it is Arkancide, in Russia its falling out windows or down stairs.

Russia is warning the U.S. to quit getting involved in its war against Ukraine or face a direct confrontation between the two world powers. Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.S., told Russian news outlet Tass that the “risk of a clash between the two great powers is high,” a day after President Joe Biden announced a new $1.8 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including for the first time Patriot surface-to-air missiles. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said the delivery of the advanced surface-to-air missile system would be considered a provocative step and that the system and any crews accompanying it would be a legitimate target for Moscow’s military.

OBSERVATION - Russia has been threating the West and in particular the US over its support since day one. Not sure if putin has been maneuvered into a position were he does strike out at western support to Ukraine directly.

RUMINT. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia. Putin has been seemingly making more public appearances in Russian cities and more frequently delivering vague statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in recent days compared to his marked absence from public activity outside the Kremlin throughout the first ten months of the war.

MORE - Putin is reportedly being kept alive by Western medical treatments as he battles against cancer, according to Russian historian and political analyst Valery Solovey, the New York Post reported over the weekend.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- The Kremlin is attempting to introduce new provisions to incentivize more Russians to join the war effort. The Russian Federation Council approved a law on December 23 that suspends legal proceedings against mobilized servicemen and volunteers who participate in hostilities during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This law will also require Russian banks to suspend debt collection and the repayment of loans. This law could incentivize Russians with pending criminal proceedings or bank loans to join the war effort.

- The Kremlin continues to prioritize committing mobilized men to stabilize the Svatove-Kremina line over other areas of the front such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No Russian missile/drone barrage that has been typical of Monday mornings for the past several weeks. OTOH, for the second time in weeks that Russia’s main nuclear bomber base at Engels has been attacked. At least 2 Kh101 drones impacted the base, killing at least 3 and causing unknown damage, though videos posted on social media show a large fire and many secondary explosions following the strike.

Russia continues to throw everything is has left into the fight in the east, launching ground assaulst from Svatove in the north to Donetsk in the south, with no appreciable gains. Rumors are that Russia has lost ground in Bakhmut. Yet to be confirmed reports that Reports of the first Ukrainian units entering the town of Kreminna from both the north and the west tonight as part of a larger Ukrainian offensive in the Kreminna-Svatove. Unconfirmed reports of Russians pulling out of the area.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian occupiers are stealing everything they can from the residents of Kreminna in Luhansk region. Military command of Russian invasion forces has moved from Kreminna to Rubizhne.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Reports that Russia has lost ground in the Bahkmut area.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are engineering positions along the Krasnoperekopsk-Dzhankoy highway in northern Crimea.[

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit Engles airfield – see 24 hr update.
Explosions were reported in Sudzha district of Kursk region of Russia.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
RUMINT – Russia claiming that NATO special ops forces and / or CIA has activated operatives throughout Russia to conduct strikes on various targets ranging from pipelines, refinery facilities and large shopping centers. Totally unconfirmed, though there have been a lot of these incidents in recent days.

OUTLOOK ——
Observing evidence that Ukraine is gaining traction in its attacks against Kreminna, around Bahkmut and in the Savtove region. Of the three, the battle for Kreminna is probably the most tactically important as it would open the door to going further east and endangering Russian LOCs necessary for the fight at Bahkmut and further south. Success at Svatove, combined with Kerminna would endanger the northern shoulder of the Russian efforts in the Donbas.

Bahkmut is turning even more into a meat grinder for Russia. If confirmed, photos and videos on social media show the approaches to the Ukraine defenses littered with the bodies of unrecovered Russian troops. One estimate was one body per 5 square meters. Some others likened it to the Germans at Verdun.

Tracking indicators that Russia is intending to launch some kind of attack out of Belarus in the future. Troops and equipment are slowly coming into the country and with the skeletal framework of the decimated 1st GTA there, Russia may be making an attempt to reconstitute it for either an attack towards Kyiv or the western margin of Ukraine.

My Assessment is that no invasion from Belarus is imminent, but actions indicate that the threat is growing. See Belarus below on some of the observed activities.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Putin’s upcoming meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg on December 26-27 will likely continue to prod Lukashenko towards deeper involvement in the Ukraine war.

The Russian Ministry of Defense ostentatiously announced on November 24 that it has a field hospital in Belarus. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are planning to deploy at least one more field hospital in Belarus. Field hospitals are not necessary for training exercises and could indicate preparation for combat operations. The appearance of field hospitals in Belarus in early 2022 was among the final indicators observed before Russia commenced its full-scale invasion.

Some Russian T-90 tanks, reportedly deployed to Belarus in late December 2022, were observed with winter camouflage. Equipping tanks with winter camouflage is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.

OBSERVATION – Growing evidence that Russia may be planning an eventually attack out of the north, but compilation of indicators suggest nothing imminent.

Poland –

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Europe / NATO General –

Kurdish immigrants in Paris have been on a rampage for the past few days following a race-based attack that kill three.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

After an Emergency Meeting earlier today Serbian President Vucic ordered Serbian Army General Staff Milan Mojsilovic to go to the Kosovo-Serbian Border where Serbian Roadblocks continue to be built and where earlier today a NATO KFOR Patrol was fired upon by Unknown Forces.

OBSERVATION – I suspect that Serbia is gauging its provocations with Russia’s reportedly planned offensive. As noted, it could serve to divert NATO support for Ukraine via having to respond to Serbian aggression and an Art 5 trigger.

Pakistan –

State Dept issued an alert that terror attacks may occur in Pakistan.

Iran –

Protests are waning in Iran, remaining predominantly in the Kurdish western areas.

Syria -

Turkey is in talks with Russia to use the airspace above northern Syria for a potential cross-border operation against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday. Turkey has carried out several incursions into northern Syria against the YPG and has been threatening a new incursion for months.

OBSERVATION - In negotiating with Russia, Syria is also being spoken too. Turkey is trying to play both ends against the middle with Russia.

Turkey -

See talks with Russia under Syria above.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

UN Security Council member states called for the reopening of the Lachin corridor in a discussion of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations on Tuesday. The corridor, the only open road into or out of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been blocked by Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’ since 12 December.

OBSERVATION – ‘Eco-activitst’ looking a lot like miliary. The corridor has trapped about ½ the population of Armenia population in Nagorno-Karabakh and isolated them from supplies. This ‘blockaid’ has been going on for nearly two weeks now.

Misc of Note –

Winter storm Elliott is slowly working its way out of the eastern US. It brought snow as far south as Miami FL and set snowfall records in Buffalo NY. Currently about a dozen have died and millions have been without power. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, we went from -36 to 40 degrees yesterday and scattered light RAIN showers. Weather chaos is hard to predict, but I’m growing concerned that even some milder storms (or lack thereof) will seriously affect our food production in 2023.

Year 2022 in Review

OVERVIEW -
Just a couple of notes for any who’ve gone back to post #1 of this year.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Initially I continued a color coding system to track changes in concern not overtly noticeable. I discontinued it because things went sooooooooo quickly into the crapper this past year.

And as I reviewed the posts for the year – I didn’t realize how much info I put out. So lets take a look at what happened during 2022.

The following is as close to a Reader’s digest condensation as i can accomplish hitting the high (low) points of the year.

My post on Friday will be what I’m expecting to occur in 2023.

GGR/WEF

This year the WEF moved significantly from its conceptual world view for the 4th industrial revolution to moving with its minions more aggressive in pushing the green, reset agenda. Significant nations/unions ramped up the effort to implement the WEF/GGR goals including the EU, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and various Blue States in the US.

The WEF became even bolder this past year, bolstered by the apparent success of wuhan lockdown/clamp downs to force the sheeple into compliance. Wuhan also gave many nations the leverage to start forcing other controls on the people such as climate change goals, restricted voices in the public (social media) square etc. The WEF wears many other masks such as the IMF, WHO, UN, G20, etc. clearly demonstrated by their echoing the WEF common goals.

Key progress included –

1. Global warming scam. Initial goals were hindered by the Ukrainan war and cut off of Europe from Russian gas supplies. However, countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and yes even the US are pushing on multiple fronts to meet green goals. Some cases, forcibly closing ranches, others forbidding the use of fertilizers, etc. Continued push towards green energy sources, likely to accelerate this summer after the regression due to the power shortages this winter.

2. More than 100 nations are exploring CBDCs, according to the IMF. The Biden Administration is pushing this. It is being portrayed as the answer to many of the world’s problems! We could see it in 2023.

3. Push to form a WHO global vaccine passport program that will eventually morph into a
Global digitial identification system. This system will biometrically track one’s ESG, vaccination and social awareness by creating a credit score that the govt can program to limit one’s purchasing and travel options.

4. Push by the WHO are changes to the global treaty to essentially give it overall power to control medical response to the next global pandemic - overriding the wills on independent countries.

5. Open statements of the desire to drastically reduce the human population. WEF leader Yuval Noah Harari openly called for the culling out of excess humanity and transhuman alteration of the remaining citizenry.

6. Increased push by the WEF’s underlings BlackRock and Vangard to force businesses to adopt ESG standards and operations.

Wuhan virus –

The year started strong for the oppressive lockdowns, continuing the economic chaos carried over from 2021, but as the year wore on, greater and greater pushback from the population – principally lead by Red states gained traction and wuhan controls were loosened.

Probably one of the leading factors was the realization by the general public that the jabs were not performing as promised. More and more major public figures came down with wuhan even though full jabbed (two shot basic and two boosters).

Then on top of it the growing evidence that the jab was not as harmless as the establishment narrative claimed. The first crack in the dam was the reporting of “excess deaths” by multiple credible sources that initially managed to get around the censors (See Cancel Culture for more). Closely with this was the ‘sudden death’ syndromes that hit many other well known figures – individuals that in many cases were athletic and in excellent health. This couldn’t be ignored by the medical community and was given the title Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS). Hand in hand with SADS came irrefutable, peer review studies of myocardia conditions linked to the mRNA versions of the jab produced by Pfizer and Moderna. While this link was rumored early on, the rash of SADS and excess deaths stimulated the medical research community to investigate and that investigation has lead to the mRNA jabs being the culprit.

Further cracks in the false façade of these jabs towards the end of this year are the lawsuits showing that Pfizer/Moderna fraudulently reported its data on the safety of their jabs. Currently protected from lawsuits, that protection can be stripped away if it is shown that they committed fraud – and the evidence grew quickly over the course of this year. Currently Florida is leading the way in its investigation of the fraud.

Other controls instituted by the medical tyrants have fallen apart by other medical studies such as masks being ineffective, the developmental damage to the children from school shutdown, the multiple now documented lies by Fauci and Birx (who openly stated they lied to Trump to push a nation wide lockdown) . All worked towards the jump in skepticism in the medical community.

We have not seen the last of the medical tyranny created by wuhan.

Economy –

The economy has been on a wild ride this year. The latter half of 2021 we were chided about high inflation being only “transitory”. However, this year inflation skyrocketed to levels not seen in decades. In response, the Fed started an unprecedented series of increases to the prime lending rate – their only method to ‘cool’ inflation. These increases have contributed a slight decrease in the inflation rate, but has caused the housing and lending markets to go into a melt down as the combination of high interest rates and domestic incomes being hammered by inflation have driven potential buyers out of the market.

Energy costs have been particularly sensitive, soaring to record highs this summer, in part to supply scares due to the Ukraine war. The administration has scolded the petroleum industry for the high prices while at the same time doing all it can to discourage domestic production and refining. Prices have pulled back to a degree this fall – in part due to suppressed economic activity and people just not having money to pay for travel – having to pay for either fuel or food.

Speaking of food – prices skyrocketed this year across the board. These prices in large part have been due to major impacts to agriculture. The combination of the drought in the west, inflated fertilizer prices, sky high diesel prices and global supply problems (resulting from climate, war, fuel problems too) drove inflation solidly into double digit ranges – dependent on product.

Supply chain issues were also significant drags on the US (and global) economies, contributing to inflation and shortages. Most noticeable in the US was the massive, ongoing, shortage of baby formula and currently shortages in infant/child cold and flu OTC medications. Of course, the empty shelves in grocery stores are another example.

Talk of recession reverberated throughout the year, some saying that there will be no recession or a ‘soft’ landing, other economists and industry experts have been warning of a massive recession hitting in 2023. This year we hit a technical recession and it seems that we are at an inflection point, with many indicators pointing to a disaster, with others showing moderation. What is clear, our economy going into 2023 is not a robust as the administration keep touting. There are many factors coming out of the wuhan lockdowns that are not being factored in and in fact may be made worse with the Fed prime increases and the $1.7 Trillion in govt spending coming in 2023.

Invasion of Illegals –

2022 saw an unprecedented number of illegals entering into the country – highest rates ever, running some where north of the 5 million level. The regime is in complete denial that there is a problem and is willingly doing what it can to further enhance illegals coming into the country. The past year has been ‘catch and release’ on steroids.

Immigration chaos is a result of the WEF’s policy of a world without borders and is being executed here in the US in support of those goals.

Some border states like Texas and Arizona have started taking steps to block the flow but at this stage it may be too little, too late. The last straw holding back some illegals may be the retention of Title 42, but that has been ineffectual in stopping the record influx, but its removal would open the gates even wider.

What gained some highlights was the bussing of illegals from states like Texas and Florida to ‘sanctuary’ cities and states. These numbers were a pittance compared to the influx along the border, but enough for these hypocritical lefties to cry foul.

Hand in hand with the flood on illegals have been the exponential increase in the smuggling of meth and Fentanyl. Many argue that these drugs are smuggled in at established border crossings, and I’ll cede that part of that is true. But inspectors are drawn down at these crossing to deal with the illegal crossings. Additionally, the Mexican cartels human trafficking also includes them backpacking illegal drugs.

Finally, 2022 saw an increase in Mexican cartel presence in the border regions in part due to human trafficking and the overwhelming of US law enforcement having to deal with it. This has opened a greater foot hold and potentially will cause the spread of cartel violence to spread north in a greater measure in 2023.

Biden / Harris watch –

I am still amazed that biden is still in office. This year graphically displayed is rapidly decaying mental and physical conditions to the world. His gaffs were epic at times, ranging from gross errors reading his teleprompter, to unscripted outbursts and incoheranet babbling to wandering around aimlessly at the end of a statement (until an aid or his wife could rush out and redirect him) . I originally thought he wouldn’t make it thru this year, but it seems his handlers may be terrified of an even more incompetent VP Harris replacing him. Had the 2022 midterms turned into the red tsunami, it is likely he would be on his way out. Now he is working towards running again in 2024.

Harris has been her own worse enemy in public, with abundant public misstatements and word salads. The past few months she has dropped of the radar screen, only to pop up to whine about the media not heralding her as some great leader.

CW2/Domestic violence –

With 2022 being a midterm year, I expected Antifa et al to ramp up violence attacking republican campaign events at levels last seen during the 2016 and 2020 cycles. Though they did show up to some degree, violence was at a very suppressed level.

Antifa appeared to take this year to try to gain support from other movements – supporting environmental, LGBT (especially trans events), defending ‘homeless’, and conducting what they consider community support events for outcast causes.

On another level, components of Antifa have spent the time and efforts to militarize units with better kit and training. They have increasingly been willing to show up openly armed and looking for a fight - particularly when counter protesting LGBT/Trans events. This shows a serious upgrade in their willingness to go kinetic – a trend that I noted starting in the riots of 2020. This also indicates that they are taking training more seriously as their fire teams have to have discipline that their mob enforcers in 2020 didn’t. Taking a trip into the way back machine, the Berkeley riots, we saw core Antifa members setting up strike teams to physically assault opponents and fade back into the crowd. 2020 saw even more technical / tactical development in support and operation of the riots. 2022 see similar growth in their ‘doctrine’ and cannot be written off as a bunch of misfits living in momma’s basement any more.

Another facet of the growing threat of a hot civil war has been the massive population migrations in the country, with many conservatives fleeing blue states for red, making each either bluer or redder. This has resulted in a wider divide between Americans and a growing clamor for either a relatively peaceful ‘divorce’ or a violent separation. What has grown has been the open discursions of separation and break up of the country by BOTH sides of the political spectrum. Kalifornia, Oregon and Washington states have had red counties openly vote to switch to becoming part of Idaho or forming their own state, and these movements are growing in momentum. The left has fought to suppress these political movements because they would cause a significant changed in the political power in DC.

Finally, 2022 fully pulled the blanket off the intent of the fed govt to weaponize against the citizens. With biden calling nearly half of americans “terrorists”, the DoJ labeling parents protesting corrupt schoolboards as ‘domestic terrorists’, the DHS considering white, Christian, conservative to be ‘domestic terrorists’ and the greatest threat to the country has only been the starters.

DoJ has openly used a willing FBI as a defacto Stasi like political enforcement arm to stage show arrests of biden political opponents. Even willing to raid Trumps home in Florida in a show raid. The brazenness of the FBI actions, combined with the selective justice from the DoJ has shifted public opinion of the agencies towards that of distrust. The year ended with the massive Twitter Files further exposing the overt actions of these govt agencies against regime opponents and contra narrative speech. See Cancel Culture below for more.

Other overt actions by the govt against citizens include using the USPS to spy, working around clear laws against such surveillance. Growth and expansion of the IRS, most likely to pressure citizens to comply with the narrative over ESG related standards. Gross negligence by DHS in controlling the border (a WEF goal) and the medical tyranny that disrupted the country in many, many ways.

It has been increasingly evident that the biden regime is seeking to create a situation where the right finally says enough as a reason to crackdown on its opponents. Much of that effort is focused on the persecution of Trump, knowing that they have a likelihood of triggering a response from their actions while trying to maintain a veneer of legitimate law enforcement.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Conservatives continued to be suppressed by Big Tech throughout most of the year. The biggest event occurred in just the past couple months with Musk purchasing Twitter and is in the process of exposing govt corruption in censoring the first amendment views of Americans on many subjects. I won’t try to detail the Twitter Files other to say that govt control of that platform – as well as the other platforms like Facistbook, google et al is down right despicable. Govt actions are bordering on the criminal, yet the regime will not pursue it. Heck even the MSM is silent on the Files. Govt actions to influence the elections, silence open and honest debate on wuhan responses, open attempts to go after a seated president and more.

POLITICAL FRONT –
This year was dominated by the eGOP pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in the midterms. It was incredible passiveness and an outright hatred of Trump endorsed candidates that caused the republicans to flip the house by a very small majority and the senate republicans to lose seats.

The eGOP sees the fruit of their efforts to neutralize Trump as an indicator that Trump is a negative influence and on the senate side turned the republican representation from red to purple. Evidenced by the significant republican support for the LGBT ‘marriage’ bill and now the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion CR through the end of FY23 – effectively sealing out house republican influence on the budget for effectively half of the new term.

Further on the political front was the illegitimate hearings on the J6 events. In the finest manner of communist show trials – the ultimate goal was to try to charge Trump with felonies to stop his re-election bid in 2024 as well as wipe him off the political map.
Added to this was congress’ successfully getting their hands on Trumps tax returns and sending them right out to the press, and failing to get the desired hit on Trump.

Parallel to this was the DoJ’s raid on Trumps home in Florida which has turned out to be a nothing burger and now the appointment of a documented anti-Trump DoJ attorney as a Special Prosecutor to investigate Trump crimes ranging from mishandling classified material to J6 related charges.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

This category has been relatively calm this past year, though not totally quiet. Great concern over the uncontrolled influx of illegals, some designated terrorists were apprehended.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Numerous deployments in the major hot spot regions of Taiwan and Ukraine. Biggest has been the huge amount of equipment and munitions supplied to Ukraine.

Recruitment by the armed forces has suffered greatly this year, due in part IMHO by the aggressive WOKE agenda of the DoD being forced on the military and the illegal forcing of wuhan jabs. The jab is illegal because the DoD forced the unapproved version on the soldiers and not the ‘approved’ version, in addition to blanket denials of medical and religious objections. To make up for the short fall, services are opening enlistment up for lesser qualified individuals with lower scholastic scores. This does not bode well for the future of our military.

Cyber Warfare –

This category has been relatively low intensity this year as well. Most notable have been ransomware attacks that have attacked some sectors. The Ukraine war instigated hacking by Russian-affiliated groups towards the US with limited effects.

China –

This may have been a pivotal year for China. Its economy has been struggling due to the vast zero covid policy that locked down millions this year – putting the breaks on productions. Lockdown were so bad that serious protests broke out across China – nearing the Tiananmen Square levels that have forced China to back off its enforcement.

The Evergrande disaster hit the property and equity markets hard – and still an elephant in the room for China.

In spite of this Xi was elected to essentially a permanent role as president of the county and began the shift from a more capitalistic economy back to a more socialist – directed system. With the cementation of his position things have also quickly shifted.

First is Taiwan. Following pelosi’s visit in August, China ramped up its military pressure by essentially “soft” blockading the island for about a week via military exercises surrounding the island. Combined with western focus on Ukraine and under the table dealings with Russia and the perception that the US is weaking as a military power China appears to have flipped the switch to move forwards with an eventual confrontation over Taiwan. More and more Chinese miltary aircraft and ships are penetrating into Taiwan’s defense zone in what appear to be practice runs for an eventual attack. China has also been testing the use of civilian ferry boats to move military forces. Overall China is on a trajectory to make some kind of move as early as 2023. China’s options still seem to be –

- Using threats to get Taiwan to capitulate
- Seizure of Taiwan administered islands off the Chinese coast for further pressure
- Blockade of Taiwan to force capitulation – moderate chance of conflict with US/allies to break the blockade
- Invasion of Taiwan – Highest risk of US/Allies involvement

There is room for some mixture of the above tactics.

The other event is their alignment with Russia regarding the Ukraine war. China has watching its steps closely to avoid overt material support – which would bring sanctions that would hurt its struggling economy. But it is working to exploit the chaotic petroleum markets and other supply disruptions to try to put together a global currency challenge to the dollar as a means of economic war against the US as well as being able to work around any potential sanctions resulting from Russian support or actions taken against Taiwan. This is a short and long term effort that will see growth in 2023.

North/South Korea –

NK suffered immensely from the wuhan lockdowns and was on the brink of a major famine the first half of the year. Only when the border was reopened to China did the crisis decline.

With the election of a more aggressive towards NK administration in SK, it appeared that NK decided it was a good time to do some poking – invoking essentially knee-jerk responses from SK and the US. This has been a record year for NK missile launches and it shows no sign of slowing down.

One significant note was the test of an potentially ICBM capable missile that could range all of the US. The other side being the need for a warhead that the missile could carry. NK has reopened its underground test facility and can conduct another test when it wants.

Kim created a stir early in the year over health concerns, when he dropped out of sight for a number of months. When he re-appeared, he has lost a notable amount of weight. Most think he had heart problems and was hospitalized during that time.

Japan –

Japan has jump started its miliary buildup to meet growing challenges from China and NK. It is increasingly joining in with other western Pacific nations in exercises designed to prepare for that conflict.

Russia - Ukraine

After monitoring the military buildup in the 2021 and 2022 TMs and tracking the war this year the claim that Russia was a dominant force was essentially turned into a myth.

It amassed a battle force of 70+ battalion battle groups (BTGs) for the initial invasion with putin choosing the most dangerous goal of trying to capture the whole country. It didn’t go well from the start. The drive towards Kyiv, thought by Russian planners to be accomplished in less than a week turned into a quagmire in days. Eventually, in the face of heavy losses from a tenacious Ukrainian defense, they were forced to retreat and concentrate their attacks in the south to secure the Donbas region.

That battle for the Donbas didn’t turn out well either. Following some pyretic victories by Russia, the logistical lessons they should have learned in the fight for Kyiv caught up to them, made worse by the arrival of HIMARS and Ukraine’s new ability to strike deep at CP’s, logistical and troop concentrations. Ukraine broke the Russian lines in the Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a route of Russian forces that resulted in the loss of considerable territories as well as key logistical points that forced fighting further south to stall out.

At the same time, Ukraine was positioning for an offensive to retake Kherson Oblast on the western side of the Dnipir River, forcing Russia to face war on two fronts. Surgical strikes by Ukraine took out bridges, command, ammo dumps and troop concentrations - virtually isolating Russian forces. The Ukrainian Kherson threat also threatened Crimea, causing Russia to rush reinforcements to the region, denying them in the east. Probably the final straw for Russia was the truck bomb that took out the Kerch Strait bridge – denying that logistical supply route to southern Ukraine. Russia withdrew and has maintained a higher concentration of troops in the eastern Kherson Oblast out of concern of a Ukraine offensive into Crimea.

Russia displayed many other significant failures from the start. One of the biggest has been the failure to gain air superiority and dominance. Ukrainian air defenses have denied Russian air power to key areas of the battle field and Ukrainian air force elements have been able to fly CAS missions in support of ground forces.

The second major failure is the essential neutering of the Black Sea fleet. Starting off with a hit on a couple amphibious assault ships, to the sinking of the flag ship Moskva and the loss of Snake Island, the Black Sea fleet has been relegated to shooting cruise missiles. The amphibious threat against Odessa is essentially nil due to the losses of other amphibious vessels and the enhanced anti-ship missile batteries awaiting any approach by the Russian navy. That is if Russia even has enough soldiers to load into any amphib ship for an attack. The Russian desire for a ‘land bridge’ to Transnistria were dashed.

Ukraine has shown remarkable imagination in striking Russian assets. Starting with the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, to drone strikes on Crimean air bases, to sea borne drone strikes on Crimean naval bases to using ancient 1950s jet drones to strike Russian airbases used to launch strategic bombers that fire cruise missies at Ukraine.

Russia has found one formula that has been winning – hitting the power grid as winter starts in. Russia however at this stage of the war is finding itself short of the missiles necessary to maximize the tactic. Russia is looking to Iran to supply the drones and missiles needed for its war efforts.

Today, the battle is centered in eastern Ukraine with both sides preparing for offensive operations once the temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground and permit better cross country mobility. Ukraine currently has the edge for winter fighting.

Last, Russia nuclear rhetoric has been loud and hot since last year. Although there is no unclassified evidence that Russia is about to launch either a tactical or strategic strike, putin observers consider it to be a very real possibility should the war effort continue to go south and he feels his position threatened.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Initially a concern, the Russian garrison in Transnistria has only served to be a body pool once the Russian effort to obtain a ‘land bridge’ fell apart with the failure of the Black Sea fleet and Ukrainian resistance on the ground.

Belarus -
Originally on the TM radar screen because it was helping moslem immigrants get into Poland and the potential for a fight there, Belarus permitted Russian to stage for its attack on Kyiv as well as has allowed stationing of Russian fighter aircraft and missile units to fire into Ukraine.

Putin has continually applied pressure to get the Belarus army to more directly join the fight, but is has resisted every time because the public as well as the military are just flat out resistant to the idea and could result in a coup attempt.

Poland –

One of the lead voices in the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine. It has been serving as the main logistical supply points for aid to Ukraine.

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Europe / NATO General –

EU/Nato response to the Ukaine has been mixed. The Ukraine war has brought in two new nations in the final process of membership to NATO – Finland and Sweden. Long term commitment to Ukraine is still in place.

The Ukraine war turned European energy supplies upside down, especially with the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2. Germany, France and England all had to quickly revert to coal because the ‘green’ sources were totally inadequate. Long term industrial capacity – especially for Germany – and the associated economic hit may be Russia’s biggest gain against the west. Combined with all the other economic woes, Europe’s economy could face serious issues in a global recession.

Europe has also be a key player in many of the WEF’s what I call “beta” testing on items like digital passports/vaccination certificates, move to digital currency, radical actions to meet greenhouse gas emission goals. King Charles, France’s Macron and other govt officials in the EU are in the highest circles of the WEF and have been pushing the implementation of their policies at an accelerated rate using the emergency created by wuhan plandemic.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

This has flared up of recent, with Russia supporting Serbs aggressive stance and threat of war against Kosovo and NATO. Still simmering, but such an action would divert a lot of NATO attention and supplies from going to Ukraine. If tied to a Russian offensive of some kind, could grant them a degree of advantage.

Pakistan –

Pakistan is facing a three-fold problem, crashed economy, political turmoil and increasing terror/competion from Pakistani Taliban elements.

Israel –

It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.

Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.

Iran –

Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.

Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.

Syria -

Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.

Turkey -

Turkey has been playing a middleman role of late. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas. It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.

Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.

Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.

Central / South America General-

Leftist elements have been on the move expanding the number of countries that they control. These will eventually turn hostile toward the US and be more open to advances from China.

India -

Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.

India has also been favoring Russia in the Ukraine War, due largely to the supply of cheap oil from Russia.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.