LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Tuesday that new heavy truck makers will have to cut nitrogen oxide emissions by more than 80 percent, the latest move in an effort toward implementing the Biden administration’s “Clean Truck Plan.”
The new standards will go into effect from 2027.
Specifically, nitrogen oxide emissions from new semis and other heavy trucks will be limited to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour. The current standard is 200 milligrams, the EPA said.
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents independent truck drivers, said the new rule will effectively push truck owners to stay with older, less-efficient vehicles as they will no longer be able to afford new ones.
OBSERVATION- This is one of many tactics the govt is using to eventually force the trucking industry into electric trucks. I don’t know if these regulation changes will be challenged as another overreach by the EPA as have other green regulations have. But all point to similar regulations developing throughout the globe to force zero emissions standards on all of us, whether we like it or not.
Going back to a theme of the WEF being the reduction of the earth’s population, its Canadian test bed has come out with an activity book is pure propaganda aimed at children to normalize medically assisted suicide.
The activity booklet uses cartoon illustrations and a child-friendly font is not meant to push children to choose suicide, but it does normalize the process of medically-assisted suicide in a country that has government-run healthcare. The aim of the booklet is to help children understand the process when someone that they love has chosen assisted suicide.
Created by Canadian Virtual Hospice, the booklet titled “The Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) Activity Book!” claims to have been created for young people who have someone in their life who may have MAiD.
The first few pages explain that MAiD is the use of “medicines” are used to “help someone with their death.” It also explains that this is a personal choice and that you probably shouldn’t bother to try to convince the person to live because they’ve likely thought about it for a long time already.
OBSERVATION – This is a further move toward physician assisted suicide targeting children.
Wuhan virus –
See China for their latest
Economy –
According to Texas A&M Agrilife economist David Anderson, the U.S. is on pace to produce a record 28 billion pounds of beef this year, but the overall U.S. cow herd will see a 3% reduction next year. Anderson said that production is up this year due to drought and increased input costs spurring the culling of beef herds.
OBSERVATION – While this may sound good on the front end, it reflects continuing economic issues for ranchers from drought, high feed costs and high fuel prices. If these factors turn around, it will still take a couple years to restore the herd sizes and likely result in some shortages – once again raising prices.
Sales of existing homes fell 7.7% in November compared with October, according to the National Association of Realtors. The seasonally adjusted annualized pace was 4.09 million units. That is weaker than the 4.17 million units housing analysts had predicted, and it was a much deeper fall than usual monthly declines.
Sales were down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines. That was the weakest pace since November 2010, with the exception of May 2020, when sales fell sharply, albeit briefly, during the early days of the Covid pandemic. In November 2010, the nation was mired in the great recession as well as a foreclosure crisis.
OBSERVATION – The housing market was one of the first sectors of the economy to be hit as a result of the Fed’s raising of the prime rate. Increasing weakness in this market can be viewed as a forecaster of what to expect from the rest of the economy in the months to come. If this holds, then next year is not looking too good.
According to data from the Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Administration District for Defense (PADD) 1, which stores petroleum products for the East Coast, is holding just over 25 million barrels of distillate fuel oil. PADD 1 distillate fuel oil stocks are currently at their lowest level for this time of year since 1981.
OBSERVATION – This shortage is affecting supplies/prices across the country. Here in the Redoubt, gasoline prices have steadily dropped, while diesel has remained stubbornly high.
Invasion of Illegals –
Situation in El Paso Texas is becoming critical. Migrants have taken over the streets of El Paso - where food banks are just days from running dry - after making last-ditch border dashes in anticipation of Title 42 limits being lifted. More than 400 National Guard troops and state policer were deployed Tuesday before the policy’s expected end, causing dozens more asylum seekers to make a break for the border to avoid clashes.
Officials said over the weekend 2,500 migrants were arriving in El Paso daily, a figure that could rise to ‘4,000, 5,000, maybe 6,000.’ Many believe that number could be even higher when Title 42 ends, with Axios reporting 14,000 daily crossings could occur.
New fencing at the Rio Grande River bank was also erected to stop migrants from crossing with pandemic-era expulsion policy Title 42 just hours away from ending.
The show of force apparently had the intended effect. Migrants quickly began moving away from the area. The remaining stragglers were described by local reporters as being “a small group.”
OBSERVATION – This scene will replay in dozens of other border cities when Title 42 eventurally gets turned off (doubtful that the USSC stay will last long).
In an agreement reached Wednesday with the federal government, Ducey’s administration said it will “remove all previously installed shipping containers and associated equipment, materials, vehicles, and other objects from the United States’ properties on National Forest System lands within the Coronado National Forest”.
OBSERVATION - Part of the push back was that the barriers were blocking critical wildlife migration routes and that illegals by pass the region because it is too rough anyway. To them it was more important for jaguars to cross the border than it was to prevent two legged predators from the same.
Tennessee’s two Republican senators and Gov. Bill Lee are demanding a response from Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on its plans to transport illegal immigrants from New Orleans to the state in a letter sent on Tuesday.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) posted her frustration with the agency’s lack of transparency, stating “ICE can respond to media requests about trafficking illegal immigrants to Tennessee, but won’t get back to us with information about who they are dropping off in our state.”
However, Blackburn said on Fox News Wednesday the plan is to have “50 at a time” and “at least two buses, maybe more, every single week” into Tennessee.
The governor’s office said notices from the Biden administration on Monday are the first time federal officials have notified the state of plans to relocate “single adult detainees into Tennessee,” adding they have received no further details.
OBSERVATION – More and more it becomes apparent that biden is shipping these illegals into predominantly red areas of the country. Taking a deep dive into the conspiracy – at some future time these illegals will be allowed or caused to support leftist violence against conservatives in these area. One thing that was made clear during the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020, when the black bloc tried to bus into rural, red areas, the were immediately confronted by no-nonsense and well armed Americans. One repeating observation is that many of these “single adult detainees” shipped inland are military-aged males. Importing them may well be a method to offset this advantage of red vs leftists.
Now, in an effort to keep Americans in the dark once the surge hits, a source not authorized to speak to the press told Brietbart Media that the Department of Homeland Security has decided to brush the issue under the rug by issuing a gag order to Custom and Border Protection managers, forbidding them from releasing the number of migrant apprehensions to the public without DHS approval.
The directive was issued on Monday and took immediate effect.
OBSERVATION - Tightening the control of the narrative, makes me wonder if the tsunami is going to be larger – in their view – than what we’ve been warned of so far.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The growth of the Stasi state FBI unbelievably is poised to increase as republicans sport a substantial funding increase for the agency – in the face of the revelations of gross corruption and anti-constitutional behavior revealed in the Twitter Files.
Vice President Kamala Harris said on Monday that she expects and “would require” social media companies to work with the Biden administration to prevent so-called misinformation and disinformation, and to “protect democracy.”
“When I see how social media is used in that way, it causes me a very deep level of concern,” Harris said. “So, what I would say about any social media site is this: I fully expect and would require that leaders in that sector cooperate and work with us who are concerned about national security, concerned about upholding and protecting our democracy, to do everything in their power to ensure that there is not a manipulation that is allowed or overlooked that is done with the intention of upending the security of our democracy and our nation.”
OBSERVATION – This is incredibly obtuse given how the govt directly censored 1st Amendment rights of citizens as revealed so far by the Twitter Files. Instead of “upholding and protecting our democracy”, biden and the deep state have done what they can to corrupt and destroy it.
IMHO, Orwellian govt censorship may be one of the key fractures along which future red/blue (govt) strife may develop along. It is unlikely that govt will stop at controlling speech on social media and will advance more into the public square in a more aggressive manner.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
FWW, fakebook put me in 24 hour time out because I shared a NY Post article on hunter biden. Cowards, and of course their system permits no real recourse. Gotta cover hunter’s rear end and protect the big guy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY –
The House Ways and Means Committee voted Tuesday to release its review of former President Donald Trump’s tax returns and is preparing to release the returns publicly this week.
OBSERVATION – Democrats exerting another attack on Trump by sheer political force. There is no justification for the release other than a smear. The disastrous republican midterms have given the dems cover for more and more outrageous attack knowing the next election is two years away and that they think they have the support of the country now.
Kari Lake’s trial against Maricopa county has the goods on the fraudulent results there. Just from the first day or so it has been documented that at least 42% of the printed forms were apparently altered in size to as to be rejected by the scanning machines. That as well as clear and deliberate breaking of chain of custody laws and callousness of election officials to resolve those problems are piling up on the county and eventuall AZSOS hobbs. This is the first real trial that has been ‘permitted’ to allow voting irregularities and probable voter fraud to go forward and so far Lake has the goods on the county. If the results of Maricopa county are tossed – we are entering new terrain as how will the votes lost in the heavily republican county be addressed.
China –
Hospitals in China appear to be filling up amid concerns about a fresh Covid-19 wave hitting the country, the World Health Organization (WHO) says. China figures show no-one died of Covid on Wednesday but there is scepticism about the disease’s real impact.
In recent days hospitals in Beijing and other cities have been filling up as the latest Covid surge hits China.
Since 2020, China has imposed strict health restrictions as part of its zero Covid policy.
But, the government ended most of those measures two weeks ago after landmark protests against the strict controls.
Speaking during a weekly news conference in Geneva WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he is “very concerned over the evolving situation in China”.
He appealed for specific data on disease severity, hospital admissions and intensive care requirements.
OBSERVATION – China tightly controls news on this topic. It is assumed it is wuhan related, but could also be a variety of this years flu bug as well. Don’t expect detailed info coming out of china any time soon.
China is holding joint naval exercises with Russia in the East China Sea this week. According to an announcement by China’s Eastern Theater Command, the exercises are being held off the coast of Zhejiang province south of Shanghai and will last through next week.
OBSERVATION – This is another of what appears to be an expanding continuation of exercises between the two countries. The most important part of these exercises is developing the ability to communicate and coordinate actions between the two forces.
North/South Korea –
In an official statement from North Korea’s Foreign Ministry Tuesday, a ministry spokesman said North Korea would take a “resolute and decisive military step” against Japan over its adoption of a new national security strategy. Japan’s new national security strategy doubles defense spending and includes heavy counter-strike capabilities from long-range missiles and naval forces. The statement accused Japan’s leaders of trying to turn the country into an “offensive military giant.”
OBSERVATION - This is common war of words coming out of NK. In this instance, NK may be realizing that its aggressive military posture against the US has resulted in other regional powers building up to counter NK military threats. Japan’s build up is currently more directed against China – the greater threat – and lesser so towards NK.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
In his speech to defense chiefs in Moscow today, Putin made a series of rare and frank concessions about his botched invasion, admitting there were ‘problems’ with his mobilization and acknowledging vague ‘criticism’ of his military strategy.
But to reverse his fortunes, the president will spend ‘whatever it takes’ on the military, ‘improve the combat readiness of our nuclear triad’ and increase his troop numbers from 1.15million to 1.5million.
He said the country’s military should learn lessons and modernize based on its experiences in Ukraine and special emphasis will go to developing his country’s nuclear forces, which he described as ‘the main guarantee of Russia’s sovereignty’.
Defense minister Sergei Shoigu also declared plans to form new military units in western Russia to, as Kremlin chiefs prepared for a new phase in the war which is entering its tenth month.
In response to Zelensky’s visit to the US, the Kremlin said that nothing good would come from from it and that Russia saw no chance of peace talks with Kyiv.
In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that continued Western arms supplies to Ukraine would lead to a “deepening” of the conflict - something which could backfire on Kyiv, he warned.
“The supply of weapons continues and the range of supplied weapons is expanding. All of this, of course, leads to an aggravation of the conflict. This does not bode well for Ukraine,” Peskov said.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Fighters from Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group have ballooned from 1,000 to nearly 20,000 in Ukraine, British government officials say, a sign of Russia’s growing reliance on the military contractor in support of its invasion. Wagner’s inflated ranks are linked to its targeted recruitment of convicts in Russian prisons. UK officials say open source estimates suggest that the numbers of convicts in Russian prisons fell by over 23,000 in the two months leading up to November 2022 - the period in which it was recruiting.
UK officials say there’s been a pivot from quality to quantity. In the past, Wagner was believed to recruit mostly experienced former soldiers - including from Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, and ex-special forces.
Wagner’s group field commander, Lt Col Dmitry Utkin, was an officer in the GRU’s Spetsnaz (special ops). But with the influx of prisoners and others of lesser caliber to draw upon, UK officials say that Wagner is now “far from an elite force”.
- Minister Shoigu proposed the following: changing the conscription age range to 21-30 years old, increasing armed forces personnel strength by 30% (350,000), and increasing professional soldiers by 33% (174,000).
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Zelensky spoke to congress and biden yesterday in a bid to maintain support for the fight with Russia. Pelosi referred to him as a modern ‘Churchill’. Russia was not too happy with the trip. See their response under Russia above.
More of the standard areas of combat – Savatove, Bakhmut and Donetsk. Artillery seemed to be focused along this line with widely scattered attacks elsewhere.
It was revealed yesterday that Ukraine targeted former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin at a party was wounded as result of shelling in Donetsk. Injured along with Rogozin was the Prime Minister of the Donetsk Republic, Vitaly Khotsenko. The attack reportedly used precision-guided artillery or HIMARS and struck the hotel in which the two men were staying – suggesting the attack was directed by specific intelligence and meant to take out the two high-profile leadership figures.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
There appear to be an increase in Russian artillery attacks along the border east – northeast of Kharkiv city. Actual intensity is hard to judge and is more likely harassing fires.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
Ukraine continues to strike Russian border towns with explosions being reported in Schebekino district of Belgorod region overnight.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Activity continues to be relatively light across the whole LOC with battles continuing in the same locations resulting in little change in the front.
More eyebrows continue to be raised over the potential Russian build up in Bellarus and will it be enough by early next year to support an attack either towards Kyiv or western Ukraine as part of Russia’s reportedly planned winter offensive. Another try towards Kyiv would be foolish in many ways, but could tie up resources needed by Ukraine to deal with an offensive in the Donbas. See Belarus below for more discussion.
Belarus -
On Dec 21st, Belarus officials set travel restrictions for the regions bordering Ukraine. The government said on its website it would “temporarily restrict entry, temporary stay and movement in the border zone within the Loevsky, Braginsky and Khoiniki districts of the Gomel region”. This is the area from where Russia launched its previous strike on Kyiv at the beginning of the conflict.
OBSERVATION - There is some speculation that the restrictions may be due to Russian and Belarusian forces moving into assembly areas in advance of an anticipated winter offensive. While many OSINT analysts and observers note that at this time Russia and Belarus lack the forces necessary for another try at Kyiv, this closure warrants close monitoring to see if Russian/Belarus forces continue to filter into the area in an attempt to try to fly under the radar so to speak in preparation of a new offensive from the north.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbian Defense Minister Milos Vucevic called on the International NATO mission in Kosovo and Metohija (KFOR) to stop Kosovar violence and terror against Serbs. Last week, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic asked NATO to approve up to 1000 Serbian troops and police to deploy to Kosovo.
OBSERVATION – These requests border on the Serbs prestaging themselves and the victims in this dispute and hopefully gaining some international support. However, since the Serbs are appealing to NATO, it seems there is a degree of hesitancy in their executing any plan on their own, having to seek NATO permission. So far the KFOR presence is deterring the Serbs from outright attacks.
Hundreds of Serbs have gathered in Rudare to protest against Kosovo government on the 13th day of barricades in Kosovo north roads.
OBSERVATION – Though Serbia has been undergoing a substantial military modernization effort and aggression towards Kosovo a spin off on its own (as it refuses to recognize the country), many are keeping a close eye on this flashpoint as a potential way to partially neutralize NATOs support to Ukraine.
Worst case scenario developing is that Serbia will launch some sort of military campaign into N Kosovo about the same time Russia launches what ever the form of its winter offensive into Ukraine develops into.
Pakistan –
On top of all the internal political and economic woes Pakistan is experiencing, terror operations from the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) forces are on the rise. TTP leaders ordered the resumption of hostilities against the government in Islamabad on 28 November. The group occupies Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas in Waziristan. The TTP was nominally aligned with Al Qaeda in the past and has sympathetic followers within the Pakistani government.
Israel –
After weeks of negotiations within his coalition Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu called President Isaac Herzog and informs him of his success in forming a government. The new government seen as the most right-wing in Israel’s history and time will tell if it will be stable or if Israel will be tossed into another round or parliamentary elections.
OBSERVATION - Because of the rising instability of the region caused by iran and increasingly hostile biden administration policies, a longer term and more stable Israeli government is necessary. Netanyahu’s long terms as PM move a long ways towards some stability. What may cause things to crash are the ultra conservative parties he has in his coalition that may cause more friction with Palestinians in the west bank – even more than the current round of activity.
Iran –
Protests continue in the predominantly Kurdish region in northwestern Iran. The regime’s increasing harsh response appears to be forcing a pull back of protests in other regions.
Central / South America General-
The Peruvian government expelled the Mexican Ambassador to Peru following Mexico’s decision to grant asylum to the family of ousted Peruvian President Pedro Castillo. Castillo’s wife and two children are reportedly hiding out in the Mexican embassy in Lima as Castillo’s wife faces criminal charges of corruption.
OBSERVATION – Mexico recently announced support for Castillo and this is a natural expression of that support.
Misc of Note –
CVS and Walgreens, the two largest drugstores in the United States, have placed purchase limits on over-the-counter (OTC) children’s fever-reducing and pain-relieving medications. Walgreens said retailers are experiencing supplier fulfillment challenges due to increased demand for the medications.
OBSERVATION – As noted in previous posts, the nation wide shortage is becoming more critical and purchase limits have finally had to come out like they did (and locally continue) for baby formula.
Named Winter Storm Elliott by the Weather Channel, the arctic blast is expected to deliver the coldest Christmas to the Midwest since the late 1980s, according to forecasts cited by US media. The NWS has called it a once-in-a-generation winter weather event, especially as the storm reaches the Great Lakes region, where its pressure is expected to reach the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. As the storm develops, meteorologists anticipate it will turn into a “bomb cyclone”.
The developing storm is hitting at the front end of the start of a busy holiday travel period – extremely dangerous conditions to drive in and a plethora of cancelled flights.
OBSERVATION – Here in my corner of the Redoubt, the continental divide to our immediate east managed to deflect most of the intensity and cold away. Even with that I’m looking at my weather station this morning with a current low of -36 degrees (and still dropping). I’ve searched out lows for the state in the 1959-1983 time frame (before I left for military service and later to work out of state) to see if I had faced any similar lows – so far this is the coldest I’ve experienced and man does it make your face (and any other exposed skin) hurt – and that is before wind chill is added in. Wood stove is glowing and yet the furnace is having to still kick in.
Nationally, there are concerns that it will hit Texas like previous storms and endanger the grid. Other concerns are for the citrus crops in the south as this air mass is suppose to reach all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. The next few days may reveal the extent of damage.
FWIW, the storm named “Elliott” is so far living up to its Scottish heritage as being a Border Reaver and “Who dare mess with me” (The Elliott Clan is my adopted clan via Mrs Godzilla and I wear its tartan proudly)
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
The WHO has decided to label all vaccine skeptics as a “major killing force” in the world and anti-science.
“Anti-vaccine activism, which I actually call anti-science aggression, has now become a major killing force globally.” -
Peter Hotez, Professor and Dean at Texas Childrens hospital and Chair in Tropical Pediatrics
OBSERVATION – By now it is apparent that the wuhan jab is fast becoming as lethal as the virus itself. By attacking honest, independent research (and peer reviewed at that) as well as countries like Denmark that ceased pushing the jab on those under 50 because of the lethal reaction just exposes the hypocrisy of the WHO and cements its place in the GGR realm of dictating global medical policy via cancelling and vilifying those who don’t accept the narrative.
Wuhan virus –
The Florida Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a grand jury requested by Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to investigate COVID-19 manufacturers could proceed.
OBSERVATION – Key issue here once again is the demonstration of fraud by Pfizer and Moderna regarding the safety claims of their so called vaccines. In the emergency authorization, these companies have been able to hide behind a fig leaf of protection from lawsuits – with a conviction of deliberate fraud that fig leave disappears, and they are fully open to civil (and potentially criminal – though the DoJ won’t follow up on it) lawsuits. It would also throw a monkey wrench it continued ‘vaccination’ pushes for additional ‘boosters’ as well as their attempts to create other mRNA products for other diseases.
Economy –
According to Bloomberg, citing an ag report via forecaster Maxar, winter wheat fields across southwest Kansas, northwest Texas, and Oklahoma lack snow cover, increasing the incidence of winter kill. Snow cover on fields insulates the wheat and protects crops from cold.
“Wheat will be at risk of winter kill in areas lacking adequate snow cover – most notably in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Commodity Weather Group warns that 20% of the national winter #wheat acreage will be susceptible to winter kill this week, including 45% of the hard red winter wheat crop, but that could rise to 30% of national crop in a worst-case scenario if snowfall fails further east.
OBSERVATION – Wheat production is still trying to recover from all the other hits it took during the last growing season. These are worse case scenarios but the concerns are very real. Losses would ensure continued high prices and inflation given the many items wheat is necessary like bread, pasta and other food products.
Inflation fell to a 5.5% annual rate in November, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. Bureau of Economic Analysis say it is a sign that inflationary pressures are abating in the face of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to slow economywide spending by hiking interest rates. Nevertheless, inflation is running much hotter than the central bank’s target and dinging household purchasing power.
Core PCE inflation, a measure of inflation that strips out energy and food prices and is generally less volatile, is clocking in at a 4.7% year-over-year rate.
OBSERVATION – Given that the feds over estimated job creation by one million just before the 2022 midterms give me pause to accept much of what they are saying concerning inflation and its trends. I’ll hold this out at arms length for now.
U.S. total new vehicle retail sales are expected to decline in December as high vehicle prices and rising borrowing costs pushed consumers to cut back spending, a report from industry consultants J.D. Power-LMC Automotive showed on Wednesday.
The average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan in December was $718, up $47 from a year ago, per the report.
OBSERVATION – Not unexpected – why buy a $60+K car/truck at outrageous interest rates. Theres no way on God’s green earth I could afford that level of payment.
The probability of a downturn in 2023 climbed to 70% in December, according to a Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, up from 65% in November. The poll, conducted between Dec. 12-16, surveyed 38 economists.
“The U.S. economy will likely fall into a recession over the next year if it is not already in one,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “The silver lining is that the mismatches between supply and demand that have fueled historically high inflation should be much less of a problem by a year from now.”
Officials also indicated that economic growth will slow sharply next year and that unemployment will march substantially higher to a rate of 4.6% as rate hikes bring the U.S. to the brink of a recession. The Fed expects the jobless rate to remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs.
OBSERVATION – Most certainly the “mismatches” will narrow simply because businesses will be shutting down.
This also indicates that economic malaise will continue for an extended period of time.
Invasion of Illegals –
The Biden administration expanded the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program after taking office in 2021, doubling the number of recipients from just over 400,000 to over 900,000. Democratic lawmakers and advocates are pushing the administration to expand the program further in 2023. According to Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the administration could expand the TPS program without congressional approval. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Now that the barn doors of our border have been left open, the next thing for the regime is to some how ‘legitimize’ keeping the illegals here. TPS as well as DACA are some of the tools that permit them to work around our laws. With such a volume, even court rulings against these expansions if against biden probably will never be enforced given the depth of corruption of the swamp.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden delivered a Christmas address on Thursday but did not speak the name of “Jesus” or “Christ.”
Some opine that in doing so he would have burst into flames. . .
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY – It is readily apparent that the GOP in the senate has turned from red to purple with 18 senators voting with the democrats to pass the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion dollar CR through the end of FY 2023. For the American this signals a new round of capitulation to the leftists in congress and serves to negate what little lead they have in the House as there are eGOP RINOS infesting that part as well.
It looks like the democrat release of Trump’s tax returns is turning out to be a big nothing burger. Many would love to see a similar rectal examination of those in congress (on BOTH sides of the aisle).
Lake’s lawsuit against Maricopa county and the plethora of illegal (yes, they failed to follow clearly stated state law) and highly questionable ethically other actions has made its closing arguments. In his closing argument , the Maricopa county attorney blamed all the problems on the Lake campaign’s emphasis to show up and vote in person on election day. Basically it’s the voters fault stating - “you reap what you sow,” meaning that Lake’s campaign lost because of strategy, not because of a printer malfunction error that rendered the ballots incapable of being machine read, long lines that led to voters being unable to vote, or other malignantly incompetent actions on behalf of Maricopa County officials.
BTW, the Maricopa attorney is Thomas Liddy, the son of G. Gordon Liddy, one of the main characters in Watergate.
OBSERVATION – One of the biggest admissions from Maricopa election officals was the fact that printer settings were changed on the day of the election – an act that didn’t occur in any other precinct.
China –
Philippine ministry of defense ordered the military to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea after Chinese naval militia was caught operating close to a strategic Philippine-held Spratly Islands. The Chinese naval militia was reportedly conducting dredging and construction operations on four uninhabited reefs and shoals. Beijing denied the claims and dismissed the accusations as “unfounded.”
OBSERVATION – China has been conducting this dredging and building operations in the fuzzy claimed areas of the South China Sea for a good decade now and is using its muscle to continue the expansion to solidify its claims on the region.
39 Chinese aircraft trespassed into its claimed air defense zone yesterday. This is a very high number and indicates an increase in harassing flights. Thursday’s incursion involved four H-6 bombers, 21 fighters jets and support aircraft.
North/South Korea –
Seoul said Pyongyang launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. The latest show of force came days after US-South Korea drills in the region and amid heightened tensions. The latest launch comes just days after US-South Korea military drills included flying nuclear-capable bombers near the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea views such military exercises as an invasion rehearsal.
OBSERVATION - NK continuing annoy SK (and the US to a degree) with these launches. While they don’t pose an immediate threat, the do give NK practice and opportunities to test refinements. I remember when nearly all NK’s missiles exploded on the launch pad or shortly after liftoff. Those days are long gone.
Japanese media as well as other sources reported that North Korea had shipped artillery shells and other munitions to Russia last month.
The claims sparked further tensions, with North Korea denying the allegations and calling them “groundless.”
OBSERVATION – In a way of speaking, NK may be correct. Latest intel suggests that the shipments were directed towards Wagner Group Mercenaries and not ‘technically’ to Russia as WG is an independent entity.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
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The Russian Federation warns Greece about the consequences if Athens decides to transfer the Russian S-300 systems to Ukraine, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
A fire broke out yesterday onboard the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been undergoing a major overhaul in the country’s northwestern Murmansk region for more than four years, and which was just moved into a new and improvised drydock earlier this year. This is not the first incident of its kind on the flattop in the course of this work, with another blaze having broken out on the ship in 2019. The vessel had also suffered another fire while anchored off Turkey in 2009, which led to the death of a member of the crew.
According to Russian media, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov invited additional countries to the “West 2023 maneuvers” and Union Shield 2023. This exercise is supposed to run every four years, and last occurred in 2021. Historically, only Belarus and Russia took part in Zapad and Union Shield exercises in September. Since the time frame has been condensed from four to two years, some are raising concern that this may serve as a cover for a Russian/Belarus invasion.
Logistics –
- Iran is working to tighten its defense relationship with Russia and to continue to supply it with advanced weaponry, Mossad chief David Barnea warned on Thursday. “We warn against Iran’s future intentions, which they are trying to keep secret, to deepen and expand the supply of advanced weapons to Russia, to expand the uranium enrichment project and to intensify their attacks against friendly Muslim countries in the region,”
- NK is reportedly sending munitions to Wagner Group.
Economic Impact –
- According to a Reuters report, Russia intends to start buying China’s yuan as a foreign exchange reserve beginning in 2023. Moscow is set to accelerate de-dollarization in an effort to reduce its dependency on Western finance and mitigate Western sanctions over its war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Moves to go off the dollar are an attack on the dollar. China has been facilitating the move for other countries as well.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased along the eastern front from Svatove southward towards Donetsk, with associated increase in Russian artillery support.
Increasing attention given to Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea. Some have noted that in the past, such activity was a precursor to missile strikes. There is little concern that Russia is going to launch an amphibious attack. Currently, its amphibious ships are serving to shuttle material across the Azoz sea / Black Sea due to the closure of the Kerch Bridge.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Significant increase in Russian naval activity around Sevastopol have been noted by OSINT observers. Most of the activity appears to be related to submarine activity. In the recent past subs have been active just before launching cruise missile attacks and this may be deployments in preparation for a suspected Monday attack.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Russian based news report - “There was an explosion in Melitopol, a car was blown up. According to Russian sources, “saboteurs blew up a car where two persons of Russian special services were driving. Both were seriously injured, one of them had a limb torn off.””
OUTLOOK ——
While monitoring Russian naval activity that some consider abnormal (or rather more ‘active’) the situation on the ground remains relatively unchanged. Weather conditions have yet to have temperatures drop enough to start freezing the ground which would permit resumption of cross country maneuvering by either side. Russia does appear to be trying to prepare for the inevitable Ukrainian resumption of the offensive by improving defenses – however many observers note that they are poorly designed and constructed based on WW1 and WW2 methodologies.
Belarus -
RUMINT – Reports of Liga (Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said a recent combat readiness check was focused on the west and northwest border. Belarus had initially declared the exercise a counter-terrorism drill but is now framing it as a defensive drill.
OBSERVATION - Ukraine-Belarus border is a swampy forest with few roads. During both World Wars neither German nor Russian/Soviet Armies tried to overcome this area. Only key avenues of approach into Ukraine are along the narrow corridor towards Kyiv (which proved devastating to Russia) and the western region, where the corridor incorporates parts of Latvia and Poland (a sure way to get them in the fight)
Israel –
See Russia, logistical issues for Mossad’s warning about Iran supplying drones and other potential munitions to Russia.
The Israeli Air Force struck a clandestine drone research and development site belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in Syria earlier this week, according to a Thursday report by the Saudi-funded al-Arabiya network and its sister channel al-Hadath.
Citing unnamed sources, al-Arabiya said Israeli jets struck the Hezbollah site at the al-Qusayr military air base, close to the border with Lebanon, and the northwestern Syrian city of Homs overnight between Sunday and Monday. The strike was not previously reported.
OBSERVATION – Though the strike was noted from other sources, here are details on the target.
More info on another recent IAF airstrike. Late Monday, Israeli jets attacked militia targets in Syria. The primary objective was an Iranian air defense battery that was recently installed near the Damascus International Airport.
OBSERVATION – Apparently this ADA battery also had Syrian soldiers operating the system. It is likely that the battery was really a Syrian unit, but given over to try to protect Hezbollah facilities and activities at the Damascus airport and nearby areas.
Iran –
Protests continue but are getting progressively smaller and more limited to the Kurdish region of Iran.
Syria -
RUMINT – A confrontation may be building in Syria as Russia and the Syrian regime are sending military reinforcements to northern Aleppo, and Turkey is threatening to crush the northern regions at a depth of 30 km.
Known - The Pro-Assad forces forces sent military reinforcements to the vicinity of the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat
OBSERVATION – Not sure how this will play out, if they get into a scrum in N Syria it could get interesting fast. Russia has a diminished presence from pulling troops out for Ukraine and Turkey has already embarrassed Syrian forces in attacks led by their drones.
Misc of Note –
Winter Storm Elliott is continuing to bear down on the eastern half of the US, with dangerously low wind chill temperatures and blizzard conditions. So far, no major power outages noted – only localized ones. Texas reportedly had its generation assets winterized following the disastrous blizzard of a couple years ago and grid managers are anticipating high demand, but no grid failures.
OBSERVATION - Watching the last of Winter Storm Elliott fade away here in the redoubt, with temperatures CLIMBING over night from -15 to +3 (current).
Failures to be prepared for weather conditions like Elliott are almost inexcusable. Yet many are having troubles. Please do some research of what may impact your location and keep prepared for it. Granted, Elliott is being called a ‘generational’ storm, but there can be no guarantees that it won’t repeat in the future.