Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

anxiety levels up a little with all the crap flying out there today. Sometimes ignorance IS bliss.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Britain’s soon-to-be PM Sunak rules out a general election. Other speculation is that he could implement a Chinese-style social credit system in the UK. A great deal of discussion that WEF agenda will be further advanced by Sunak on the interwebs.

The Netherlands has become a testing ground for the globalist Great Reset being pursued by the World Economic Forum. In the process, people’s diets are being switched to insects. After most farmers in the Netherlands were officially ruined by suspect “nitrate laws”, insects are currently being introduced in schools.

OBSERVATION – Similar to what is happening in Australia, the GGR/WEF proponents are working to desensitize the population to the consumption of bugs – prior to the banning of other sources of animal protein.
Also note that the ones promoting kids eating bugs are not eating bugs themselves.

Wuhan virus -

I’m seeing rumors that the WHO is working to bring the global pandemic treaty back from the dead.

Economy –

Yellen says the Treasury is taking steps to mitigate potential risks in the Treasury market and private money market and bond funds.

OBSERVATION – Still great concerns about the Treasury market’s liquidity. However, take what she says with a grain of salt - she also said the inflation we are having is just ‘transitory’.

Biden told a Democrat fund-raiser Monday night that the 15 percent minimum tax on large corporations is not a “fair share” after all.
He said Democrats are “fiscally responsible”; they are building an economy “where everyone does well”; and he slammed the minimum 15 percent tax rate on big corporations as “not a fair share,” after months of insisting that corporations should pay their fair share.

OBSERVATION – SMH, the rest of his speech is Twilight Zone material.

Biden / Harris watch –

An overabundance today –

BIDEN TO VP HARRIS: “Happy birthday to our great President”

“Am I slowing up? Am I don’t have the same pace? You know, & that old joke—You know, everybody talks about the—you know, the new 70’s 50—you know, all that stuff. You know, I—you know, could be [...] I could get a disease tomorrow, I could, you know, drop dead tomorrow.”

Joe Biden falsely claimed Congress voted on his unconstitutional student loan forgiveness package during a sit-down interview with NowThis ‘Make Your Mark’ midterm discussion.
“It’s passed. I got it passed by a vote or two,” Biden said.

Biden appeared confused as he tried to make his way back to the White House following a tree planting event on the South Lawn. The worrying footage posted to Twitter on Monday afternoon showed the president leaving the event honoring the White House groundskeeper, but he stops short and is heard asking his team, ‘where do we go?’
When the security turns Biden around and points him in the right direction, he exclaims that he wanted to go the other way.

Biden responded by saying he is going to push to ban ‘assault weapons’ after the midterm elections and urged people to vote for Democrats in order to secure the ban.
He noted, “My legislation says there can be no more than eight bullets in a round.”

OBSERVATION – As the evidence of his mental deterioration grows, I’m still amazed he has lasted this long in office. I suspect strongly that the progressive powers behind biden will be working hard to move him out of office, taking harris with him, in order to position a legitimate candidate for president in 2024. This may accelerate depending upon the size of the red wave.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Militants in Eugene, Oregon, formed a riot-control phalanx to disperse the protesters of a drag queen story hour. The display of riot control tactics appears to be a new development for Leftists.

OBSERVATION – Since Antifa moved to center stage during the Berkeley riots in the 2016 range, many have scoffed at these misfits – and yes, many are misfits. However, to those who’ve paid attention, Antifa has upped their game – especially after 2020 to refine their tactics and training to become more effective in violent actions.

A man has been arrested for allegedly beating a person in Florida, authorities confirmed on Oct. 24. Javier Jesus Lopez, 22, was taken into custody for beating a man who was walking around the neighborhood “handing out fliers,” according to a Hialeah Police Department report. The Hialeah has also said the attack was not politically motivated.

OBSERVATION – Democrats have set the narrative over the past decade that republicans are open season. With the turmoil of the last few years, the democrat rhetoric has reached a fever pitch. However, I’m actually surprised that at this juncture there has not been as many political based attacks as there were in 2020.

Hillary published a video on Monday where she accuses “rightwing extremists” of “already having a plan to literally steal the next presidential election.”

OBSERVATION – For democrats to drag this old war horse out and make these statements is on one hand humorous, but on the other extremely dangerous for the country. Bringing her out could well be a primer for behind closed doors maneuvering to some how get her into the presidential chain prior to the 2024 elections.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Closing in on the midterms. Great potential for a red wave, or a repeat of election fraud.

China –

Well we learned what Garland’s big presser was about. Two Chinese intelligence officers have been criminally charged with attempting to obstruct the prosecution of the Huawei global telecommunications company, federal court files reveal. The criminal complaint accuses Guochun He and Zheng Wang of paying a U.S. government employee a total of $61,000 worth of Bitcoin cryptocurrency for confidential information about the Department of Justice’s pending prosecution of China-based Huawei.
Garland also announced two more criminal cases related to efforts by the Chinese government to interfere in U.S. affairs.
One in New Jersey charges three Chinese intelligence agents with conspiring to act in the United States as illegal agents on behalf of a foreign government.
The other in the Eastern District of New York accuses several people working on behalf of the Chinese government of “engaging in a multi-year campaign of threats and harassment to force a U.S. resident to return to China,” Garland said.

OBSERVATION - This is not a big surprise, its been a pretty much an open secret that Chinas has been doing stuff like this for a long time. Only thing suspicious about this is the timing - possible to gain the impression of the American people biden et al are doing something to benefit the country for once.

Xi’s assumption to power caused Chinese markets into a dive on Oct. 24, marking a broader pessimism that the leader’s policies will have negative consequences for the global economy. Investors in the Chinese market wiped nearly 10 percent off the value of internet giants Alibaba and JD.com and 7 percent off Tencent.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4.5 percent, and a sub-index of Chinese internet giants listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai tracked a 2 percent fall as foreign investors sold more than $1.3 billion in Chinese shares.

The trigger for the rapid market fall this week appears to be Xi’s unexpected move to further appoint authoritarian-minded loyalists to positions of power, raising fears that there will be no balance of powers within the CCP.

OBSERVATION – Xi is taking more direct control of China’s economy and taking it a step back away from western style capitalistic markets. They see old-school directed economies reappearing.

According to Taiwan Deputy Economy Minister Tseng Wen-Sheng, the island nation is increasing its reserves of natural gas, coal, and oil. Newly built storage facilities will increase Taiwan’s emergency natural gas supplies to 20 days by 2030 and coal reserves to about 100 days.

OBSERVATION – Wise move, prepare today.

North/South Korea -

Reports there are indications now that preparations are in the final phases for another nuclear test.
NOTE – there have been several months now of ‘final preparations’ statements by various sources. This does not mean I discount the possibility, just the validity of these sources making these claims. A replacement adit for the original adit #3 has been completed but last I saw, there was no construction equipment on site for some time now.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the“three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.

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Russia calls for UNSC consultations on “dirty bomb” threat.

Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical, and biological protection forces, announced Ukrainian forces are in the “final stage” of preparations to use a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), otherwise known as a “Dirty Bomb”. Citing the technical capabilities of Ukraine, Kirillov said the Ukrainian RDD would be disguised as a malfunctioning Russian tactical nuclear device containing highly enriched uranium using materials from Ukrainian nuclear facilities.

OBSERVATION – The whole fury of the propaganda push on this dirty bomb scenario is unprecedented for Russia.

Four unexplained underwater explosions in Gulf of Finland on Russian territorial waters last Thursday (Oct 20), picked up by University of Helsinki Institute of Seismology. Magnitudes: 2.0,1.5,1.5, and 1.4.
NOTE - those are pretty big bangs to be measured at those seismic magnitudes.

NUKE WATCH -
The U.S. still have seen nothing to indicate that the Russians have made a decision to employ nuclear weapons, says senior defense official.

RUMINT –
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, which may come to pose a threat to Putin’s rule — at least within the information space. This is largely reflected in Wagner’s dogged assault to capture Bahkmut – part of the power play to show the conventional Russian forces impotent.

Logistics –
- Russia is sending more of T-90M to Ukraine, spotted on a train Samara and it contains at least 8 of them. Russia had only 67 units of the T-90M and several had been lost in Ukraine, already.
- Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that Russian conscripts to be equipped with Iranian-made helmets, body armor. About 1,500 bulletproof vests and 1,500 helmets produced in Iran are already in storage in Russia, ready to be supplied to the Russian army, reports Ukraine’s Defence Ministry.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Kremlin officials walked back an earlier announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the end of partial mobilization efforts. Speaking to reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no “specific date” for the end of mobilization.
- Hurried Russian mobilization efforts to fix personnel shortages have resulted in the cannibalization of military training staff, thus diminishing Russia’s ability to effectively train and deploy new personnel.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces continue with waves of localized offensives around Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces are holding their lines, in fact taking ground back in some cases. Russian shelling continues to be intensive this week in many regions, mostly north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut.

Still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russia’s Kherson gambit. A lot of unconfirmed reports of fresh conscripts being put on the front lines and the more veteran troops pulling back to Kherson to establish a defense there.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery attacks across the north.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery attacks along the border from the north to the east.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements in Luhansk Oblast, among them Karmazynivka and are only 12km away from the city perimeter of Svatove. Potential pincer developing N and S of the city.

Donetsk Oblast ——
The Wagner mercenaries have lead the effort against Bakhmut for the past few months and the last few days has not gone well and have actually lost ground acquired after months of fighting.
Ukraine also repulsed attacks in the area of Spirne, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Andriivka and Klishchiivka.

Crimean front ———
Occupation administration officials have taken down communications systems in Kherson City in an attempt to limit civilian reporting on Russian positions to Ukrainian forces ahead of anticipated Ukrainian advances.

Russia is reportedly creating an “illusion” of retreat by evacuating civilians from Kherson. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence arm, told the online news outlet Ukrainska Pravda that as Ukrainian forces advance on Kherson, Russia is moving out cash, Russian-installed authorities, and injured people — and moving in military resources.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR…

Russian Territory -—
In the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, an explosive device went off on strategically important railway tracks. The explosion took place between Novozybkov and Zlynka, which are located at the junction with Ukraine and Belarus. These are part of Russia’s supply lines into Belarus.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. 5 wounded in vehicle explosion in Melitopol, no details on who may have been the target of the bomb.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian forces are likely preparing to defend Kherson City and are not fully withdrawing from upper Kherson Oblast despite previously confirmed reports of some Russian elements withdrawing from upper Kherson. What exactly is on Russia’s mind appears to be displayed in increased caution by the Ukrainian forces.

The recent increase in belligerent language between Russia and the U.S-led pro-Ukrainian coalition has some analysts thinking a significant event is about to unfold in Ukraine. I can’t disagree, and I’m not sure it will be very nice - possibly a big escalation by putin.

Belarus -

Ukraine estimates the number of Russian troops in Belarus at 3200 people.
They also noted that there are no signs of formation of strike groups on the territory of Belarus.
NOTE – Belarus is still being assessed as more of a distraction rather than a threat.

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Europe / NATO General -

After 6 months, natural gas prices in Europe (Amsterdam) went below the 100 EUR/MWh line. At his moment the value stands at 98 EUR/MWh. When Nordstream was blown up it was at 210 EUR/MWh.

OBSERVATION – The crash course Europe has been on to replace lost Russian gas and institute strict use reductions appears to be working for now. This has removed a big stick Russia had and easing pressure on Europe.

Norwegian police detained two Russians in Nordland province. They are suspected of illegally photographing military objects. According to a police representative, Russian citizens were detained on October 22, and will be imprisoned on the 24th. The Russians themselves insist that they were in Norway as tourists. The PST Police Security Service will investigate the case.

OBSERVATION – Russia or someone has been inceasing intelligence collection on nations in the region initially via drones. HUMINT is still a very valuable source – see Ukraine’s success striking Russian HVTs.

Israel -
See Syria for recent air strike.

Iran -

Protests continue and the attempts to put it down by Iran have become more harsh – but those efforts have created more backlash and support than stopping the riots. IGRC and the like have focused on beating women for example, not taken well by the citizens. In Mahabad, NW Iran locals are gaining control over various areas of the city and overnight there was a blast and accompanying power outage in Tehranpars, Tehran.

Syria -

Further Israeli airstrikes earlier yesterday reported against IRGC militia compound near Damascus airport. Reports of at least two killed. Likely targeting weapons movements again.

Globalism / Great Reset –

On Monday, newly sworn Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta criticized Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF) and announced that she would be cutting ties between her province’s health authority and the globalists WEF during a press conference in Edmonton.
“I find it distasteful when billionaires brag about how much control they have over political leaders as the head of that organization has,” said Smith following the swearing-in ceremony of her cabinet ministers.

“And so, quite frankly, until that organization stops bragging about how much control they have over political leaders, I have no interest in being involved with them. My focus is here in Alberta solving problems for Albertans with the mandate from Albertans,” she said.

OBSERVATION - Much of the WEF/GGR is coming from their lackey Trudeau who has angered the western provinces over numerous GGR agenda items from restricting oil production to attacking farming and ranching. There are hints of a potential separatist movement as Trudeau continues to push the agendas.

. While addressing the Business Roundtable on Monday, Biden said there is “going to be a new world order” that must be led by the United States.
“You know we are at an inflection point, I believe, in the world economy — not just the world economy, in the world. Occurs every three or four generations,”
“A lot of people died but nowhere near the chaos, and now is the time when things are shifting. There’s going to be a new world order out there. We’ve got to lead it, and we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it,” he continued.
WEF article from 2018 entitled “We must work together to build a new world order. This is how we can do it,” claims that the West has been resisting a “change in the international order” through “intransigent denial, while zealously clinging onto what we inherited from the Cold War.”

OBSERVATION – The phrase “new world order” has been on scene for a while but really took off under President George H.W Bush in 1991. It has come out of the conspiracy theory realm into harsh open reality in association with WEF and UN plans and goals. Biden et al are going to have a shock when they realize they aren’t high enough on the elite ladder to lead this brave new world and have been used as pawns.

Wuhan virus -

On Tuesday, the New York Supreme Court ruled that New York City must reinstate all employees that were fired because of their vaccination status. The order also states that for those fired, backpay must be issued. In its decision the court noted “Being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting Covid-19.”

OBSERVATION - Well, this will probably start promulgating to other situations.

Economy –

Top Wall Street bankers renewed their warnings about the world economy on Tuesday amid geopolitical tensions and steep interest rate hikes to tackle decades-high inflation.
Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon said economic conditions would “tighten meaningfully from here” and the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike rates beyond 4.5-4.75% if it does not see real changes in behavior.

OBSERVATION – “Behavior” = lowered spending by people.

Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio warned that because of persistent inflation, there will be more price increases in 2023 amid ongoing challenges that are hampering the food industry.
“We’ve already increased the prices that we were expecting this year, but I’m predicting that next year inflation will continue, and as a consequence [we] will have other rounds of price increases,” Patricio said in an interview with CNN Business on Monday.
MORE RELATED - The United States Department of Agriculture’s latest Food Price Outlook forecasts that all food on a year-over-year basis will see 9.5 to 10.5% inflation by end-of-year (EOY) 2022. The USDA forecasts food prices by EOY 2023 to increase between 3 and 4%.

OBSERVATION – Patricio saw the tomato shortage building in kalifornia and acted first. However, much of the rest of the food industry wasn’t so lucky.

The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed Wednesday.
The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 22 basis points to 7.16% for the week ended Oct. 21 while the MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 1.7% from a week earlier. Mortgage application activity is at its slowest pace since 1997.
The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2.

OBSERVATION – I’ve pointed this out before, the Fed chair considers the housing market to be ‘collateral damage’ in his war against inflation.

Invasion of Illegals -

Seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border have set a record in FY2022, according to the latest statistics released by the agency. While CBP’s latest monthly operational update for the border reported that fentanyl seizures dropped 19% from August to September, the total amount of fentanyl intercepted by federal authorities in FY2022 surpassed the amounts in FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021.
According to CBP’s statistics on the total pounds of drug seizures by the thousands, 14.1k of fentanyl was seized in FY2022 at the southwest border alone. Examining overall CBP statistics, including coastal/interior, the northern border and southwest border, that number jumps to 14.7k, compared to 11.2k in FY2021, 4.8k in FY2020 and 2.8k in FY2019.

OBSERVATION - biden’s policies are literally killing Americans. The associated crime is desired by him as well – Hegelian dialect at work.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Last night Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was swatted for the sixth time since August.

In the Portland/Seattle Antifia occupied zones, the leftists have become increasingly violent in regards to setting up counter protests to ‘protect’ so called family friendly drag events and to try to silence feminist speakers who are against transgenderism. Transgenderism support has generated the largest support by Antifa et al of most topics lately in those strongholds.

OBSERVATION – While unlikely to generate nation-wide protests, this does keep them in the forefront and in the eyes of like-minded brainwashed masses in colleges and universitites as being a valid ‘movement’ still.

Violence by Antifa et al is expanding on college campuses, rising to levels not seen since the Berkeley scrums of 2017. Any conservative campus speaker / group are facing increased violent leftist turnout. A recent example is the cancellation of an event organized by student organization affiliate Turning Point USA at UC Davis (aka People’s Republic of Davis) and featured Stephen Davis. It was canceled because of a brawl between about 100 protesters and counterprotesters led to pepper spray being used, barricades being knocked down and traffic cones being removed.

OBSERVATION – IMHO, these are recruiting and practice forums for Antifa in order to keep their teeth sharp and identify potential new members for entry into its core elements. Election year politics seem to be a good explosive mix on leftist campuses this fall.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Elon Musk informs bankers that he intends to close the Twitter deal on Friday — Bloomberg

OBSERVATION – Break out the popcorn. . . ..

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats set the bar low, but low enough as Fetterman crashes and burns in last night’s debate. Looks like a senate seat pickup for republicans is pretty much secured.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The recent revelation of the Ohio-classa SSBN (submarine with ballistic nuclear missiles), which surfaced in the Arabian Sea has caused eyebrows to raise. Normally secretive because these subs carry 24 Trident II ballistic missiles, each of which can carry 10 warheads at a maximum, which in total gives the vessel an ammunition supply of 240 strategic nuclear warheads.
This action in the midst of a renewed nuclear threat by Russia was most likely a reminder that the US has nuclear teeth as well and counter strikes can come from just about any quadrant.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

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All is not happy with putin’s warlords. Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has slammed Russia’s ‘weak’ attacks on Ukraine in the latest show of high profile dissent from one of Vladimir Putin’s biggest cheerleaders. The colonel general ordered Kremlin troops to ‘wipe out Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth’ in a chilling video message on Telegram This rant comes after a HIMARS strike on one of his barracks that killed at least 40 and wounded 60 of his fighters.

Meanwhile Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Russian tycoon behind the mercenary group Wagner, personally told Putin that his military chiefs are mismanaging the war, U.S. officials said.
According to the U.S. intelligence report that has been circulating in Washington, Prigozhin has expressed his view that the Russian Defense Ministry relies too much on Wagner and is not giving the mercenary group sufficient money and resources to fulfill its mission in the conflict, the people who read the report said.

Since the war started, Prigozhin has used Defense Minister Shoigu and top uniformed generals as his foils, positioning himself as a no-holds-barred leader able to show results on the battlefield in Ukraine.

It’s unclear if Prigozhin is primarily focused on wresting more influence within the Russian defense establishment or if he harbors greater political ambitions for himself or those close to him.

OBSERVATION – Dangerous power politics in the Kremlin. Prigozhin has the ears of ultranationalist elements in Russia and his partnership of sorts with Kadyrov represents a very serious danger to putin. I wonder when the Russian general staff is going to start pushing back stronger.

NUKE WATCH -
The nuclear rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine has increased, with each side claiming the other is preparing for a radiological attack using what is called a “dirty bomb”. Both sides have stated that they will not use either dirty bombs or nuclear weapons.
It must be noted that both Russia and Ukraine have warned of possible nuclear attack for months and nothing has come of it. Strategically, it makes no sense for Russia to launch a nuclear attack, however Russia has badly miscalculated the entire war. It is not beyond reason they would miscalculate again.

Russia has notified the U.S. that its annual nuclear exercise has begun and that it will include launches of nuclear capable missiles starting Wednesday, two U.S. officials said. – CBS

Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator says that Russian forces were performing secret work at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

“If Russia were to employ nuclear weapons or a dirty bomb, there would be consequences, but again, I’m not going to go into details,” says Pentagon Pres Sec

Municipal authorities in St. Petersburg announced the creation of a new draft list of safe zones for use in the event of a “natural” or” man-made” emergency. The list identifies seven administrative districts of the city located a distance from the city center as “safe districts” to be used in evacuation measures. NOTE – This could be taken a couple of ways - propaganda or an actual/real prepartion for a kinetic response from NATO for actions taken in Ukraine, or a possible WMD attack by Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia proper.

Logistics –
- Putin, facing military production delays and mounting losses, urged his government to cut through bureaucracy to crank out enough weapons and supplies to feed the war in Ukraine. The Russian military’s shortfalls in the eight-month war have been so pronounced that Putin had to create a structure to try to address them. On Tuesday, he chaired a new committee designed to accelerate the production and delivery of weapons and supplies for Russian troops, stressing the need to “gain higher tempo in all areas”.

Economic Impact -
- The effort to fill personnel shortages on the front continues to cause personnel shortages in domestic Russian industries such as transportation, limiting production.

- Putin called his government to “speed up” decision-making and manufacturing of military equipment

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue in the south and east of the country. Heavy fighting continues east and south of Bakhmut and near Kreminna.
Russian shelling was intensive in several areas yesterday and overnight including in and around Dnipro, Nikopol, Soledar, Bakhmut, Kreminna and north of Kherson. Sporadic shelling continues in many of the other impacted regions.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia launched a small ground attack on the border northeast of Kharkiv city. It was repulsed.

Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian army liberated another seven settlements in northern Donetsk, eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblast, pushing the front line further east towards the strategic Russian-occupied city of Svatove.
Heavy battles south of Svatove. The Russian forward posts in Kovalivka and Novovodyane under increasing Ukraine pressure. These towns are key to the encirclement of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More Russian assaults on the Bakhmut and Donetsk portions of the front. No gains reported. Wagner mercenaries struggling to regain the momentum at Bakhmut after being pushed back at several location.

Crimean front ———
Analysts are noting evidence that Russian troops are preparing to defend the city of Kherson and are not fully withdrawing from the north of Kherson Oblast.

Limited action in the Kherson Oblast, with scattered Russian artillery strikes.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR…

Russian Territory -—
Follow-up on yesterday’s report of rail sabotage. On 24 October 2022, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region announced that an explosive device had damaged the railway near the village of Novozybkovo, approximately 15km from the Russia-Belarus border. The line is the main rail link between Russia and southern Belarus.
The Russian anti-war group ‘Stop the Wagons’ (STW) claimed responsibility for the incident. This is at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June.
This is part of a wider trend of dissident attacks against railways in both Russian and Belarus. The Russia military primarily relies on rail transport for deploying forces to Ukraine, but with a network extending to over 33,000km, largely transiting isolated areas, the system is extremely challenging to secure against physical threats.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
Explosion at “regional television company” in RUS occupied Melitopol this morning, assumed to be the work of UKR partisans.

OUTLOOK ——
Watching the Ukraine offensives in the east and south. In the east, progress towards Svatove is getting close to breaking thru the Russian line of defense west of the city and that break through could happen as soon as by the weekend.

Kherson is a different matter. Between Ukranian OPSEC and Russian propaganda its hard to decern the near term actions. Though currently relatively static, advances can suddenly happen as we’ve seen recently. Looking more and more like Russia is trying to pull Ukraine into a meat grinder by trying to hold Kherson. We’ll see how smart Ukraine is to that tactic and whether or not Russians want to make it their Melitipol.

Nuclear rhetoric is slowing a bit but where there’s smoke, there is often fire. Unprovoked nuke strike by Russia on Ukraine is still low. “Dirty bomb” charges could permit (in their mind) Russia to justify a nuke strike. Way too many ‘what if’s’ at this point, but if they do drop a nuke, it will be without warning to minimize NATO/Ukrainian response.

Belarus -

Latest info I’ve seen has Russian forces in training areas in the western half of the country. Most likely being trained by Belarus given that Russia has stripped its training bases of experienced soldiers to fill the leadership vacuums in Ukraine.

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Europe / NATO General -

Oil and gas workers on Norway’s offshore platforms are reporting sightings of unknown UAVs. Norway’s working thesis is that they’re controlled from vessels or submarines nearby. At least 7 Russians have been arrested in Norway with drones.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Tens of thousands of ethnic Serb protestors took to the streets following the announcement of a recount of votes in Bosnia’s Serb-run administrative region, Republika Srpska. Incumbent Bosnian Serb politician Milorad Dodik claimed victory in this month’s general elections, but irregularities at polling stations and claims by opposition candidate Jelena Trivic that votes had been rigged forced a recount by the Bosnian election commission.

OBSERVATION – Serbs are continuing to not play nice in the region. Some view this as a possible parallel to the early beginnings of a separatist movement that hit Ukraine in 2007, resulting in the civil war over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Iran -

Protests have continued throughout the country and are spiking today. Protest gathering by doctors and dentists in Tehran, to mark the 40th day of Mahsa Amini’s death, but also likely over anger at the abduction by government enforcers of Fatemeh Mashhadi.
Lethal force by IRGC elements have only made matters worse, inflaming the locals and increasing protest numbers.

Two members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards militia were shot dead by gunmen in the city of “Zahedan” in southeastern Iran

OBSERVATION – Iranian response to protestors has so far increased govt resentment and increased numbers protesting. The attack on the IRGC suggests that an incipient insurgency is forming.

Check your winter preps NOW and update what you need, then get it. Don’t wait.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Yuval Noah Harari is one of Klaus Schwab’s top advisors at the WEF in a recent interview said -
“we will have a small elite that’ll makes all the decisions even if it doesn’t benefit the majority of the population … leaving the rest to drown”

OBSERVATION - The evil thoughts and plans that come out of this guy’s mouth are almost antichrist-like.

Almost as quickly as UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted from office, so too was her (now-temporary) order to resume gas shale fracking - a plan which included offering UK households £1,000 each for allowing the practice in their neighborhoods.

According to the Financial Times, her successor - the WEF-sponsored (of “great reset, eat bugs, own nothing and be happy” fame) Rishi Sunak is reversing Truss’s order, and reinstating the fracking ban.
During his first prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the new UK prime minister told MPs that he “stands by” the Conservative party’s 2019 manifesto commitment that halted fracking. The moratorium was briefly lifted by Truss during her brief period as prime minister. -FT

The news brings clarity to Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Tuesday resignation. Rees-Mogg, a fracking advocate, was placed in charge of the UK’s energy strategy by Truss. He notably warned against ‘climate alarmism’ and said that he wants cheap energy for his constituents “rather more than I would like them to have windmills.”

OBSERVATION – Watch as Sunak pushes more GGR/WEF agenda under the guise of saving the British economy and saving the world. These reversals are just another sign of the power play that GGR players in the British govt were involved behind the curtains in the removal of Truss.

Wuhan virus –

Just in time for the holidays. A new COVID subvariant nicknamed by some as the ‘nightmare variant’ is on the radar of doctors across Massachusetts.
The strain is so new that it isn’t showing up yet on the CDC’s variant tracker. Dr. Shira Doron, epidemiologist with Tufts Medical Center, told Boston 25 News that there are reports that it has been detected in New York.
XBB, a descendent of Omicron, has been ripping through Southeast Asia in recent weeks. It’s caused cases to double in a day in several countries.
What’s concerning about XBB is that studies have shown it might be immune to current vaccines.

OBSERVATION – All variants are immune to the jab – as it has been admitted by Pfizer/Moderna and CDC et al. Just another scare.

Less than two months after the FDA used mouse data to give emergency use authorization to bivalent COVID-19 boosters, the real-world performance of the shots that target the ancestral strain and Omicron BA.4/5 subvariants is undermining the feds’ one-size-fits-all messaging.
New preprint studies by researchers at Columbia University and Beth Israel Deaconness Medical Center, not yet peer-reviewed, found that the bivalents showed no meaningful improvement over the original monovalent boosters that targeted the Wuhan strain alone.
University of California San Francisco epidemiologist Vinay Prasad wrote in his newsletter remarked -
“Their entire vaccine policy seems to be interested in giving Pfizer and Moderna a perpetual market share for a yearly vaccine,” he said. “But seems to have no interest in generating credible randomized control trial evidence to inform the public.”

OBSERVATION – Prasad is correct – follow the money and ignore the lack of supporting documentation.

White House COVID Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said Tuesday that COVID “continues to be a substantial challenge,” killing several hundred Americans a day, and is “probably the third leading cause of death among Americans and probably the number one cause of preventable deaths among Americans.”

OBSERVATION – Continuing the lie. The jab does not prevent infection or death from wuhan, on the contrary, the jab has become a more serious threat to health than the bug.

Economy –

BREAKING - A report from the Commerce Department released on Thursday shows the nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, August and September. That’s in contrast to the first six months of the year, when GDP figures showed the economy shrinking.
The apparent improvement, however, is largely the result of fluctuations in things like international trade, which don’t reflect the underlying health of the economy. They made GDP look artificially weak in the first half of the year, while pumping up the most recent figure.
“If you take a step back and look at GDP, it’s gone effectively nowhere over the last year,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “One quarter or two it’s down a bit. This quarter it’s up a bit. But net-net, we’re kind of treading water.”

OBSERVATION – The left will try to spin this up as a victory. The fed is still on track for another 75 basis point increase in the prime. Zandi echos some of what I’ve seen other analysts hit on - - “don’t reflect the underlying health of the economy”. Closures of smelters, steel plants, implosion of the housing market etc. are still bearing down on the GDP. Watch for the later revision – some time after the midterms. Further, this spike in the GDP may just encourage the Fed to continue its aggressive anti-inflationary policies by assuming the economy can take it. SEE BELOW.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a recent note that the Federal Reserve’s fight to crush inflation could send the unemployment rate as high as 6 percent by the end of 2023, equivalent to around 4 million Americans losing their jobs.
With all the tightening under way, Fed policymakers expect that the economy will slow and unemployment will push higher from the current 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent in 2023 and 2024.
But a recent analytical note from Deutsche Bank says the Fed is low-balling its estimate on how many Americans will have to lose their jobs as the central bank corrects its course.
“Our updated analysis continues to point to the need for a sharper rise in unemployment than embedded in the Fed’s latest projections for September,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
Markets are now pricing in another big 75 basis-point rate hike in November and a terminal rate of 4.89 percent.

OBSERVATION – There was a major concern at the start of the Fed increases that it would overshoot and thus crash the economy versus the ‘soft landing’ narrative. Looks like this is coming true.

Diesel shortages in the NE are now prevalent throughout the East Coast as inventories there are at their lowest level ever heading into the winter. Energy suppliers are counting on the Colonial pipeline, the main supply of diesel for the Southeast, to replenish supplies. However, the first shipment will not reach Atlanta until Nov. 3, and New York a week after that.
“Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility. Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72-hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels,” Mansfield Energy wrote in an update to customers on Tuesday. The trucking firm has a fleet of tankers that delivers refined fuel products to more than 8,000 customers nationwide.

IN RELATED - East Coast is deepening as terminals already low on diesel are now low on gasoline. Distributor TAC Energy stated that numerous terminals over the past 72 hours have run out of gasoline and ethanol. Gasoline stockpiles on the East Coast have hit their lowest level since 2007.

OBSERVATION – The biden fuel crisis continues to get worse. There is nothing in the short term that suggests that there is any real relief coming soon. This will just serve for him to try to justify further pulls from the strategic reserve.

Abdulaziz bin Salman said that “people” were using emergency oil reserves to manipulate markets rather than their intended purpose of mitigating shortages of supply. The Saudi energy minister also warned that decisions by some to use emergency oil stocks “may become painful in the months to come.”
Brent crude oil was trading at $95-$96 a barrel on Wednesday – up from around $94 on October 6, the day after the OPEC+ decision was announced. In the intervening fortnight it has fluctuated within the $90-$98 range.

OBSERVATION – As I’ve said before, I’m convinced this is a deliberate sabotage of America’s oil reserve – so that when the next big shock wave hits the country we will be essentially helpless. Perhaps Salman speaks a truthful word of warning, foreknowing something coming down the road.

The specter of a national rail road strike has become a greater possibility. The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen voted against September’s tentative agreement, according to results announced Wednesday. Five more unions are scheduled to vote on the deal in mid-November.

OBSERVATION - This has raised the odds that America’s freight railroad workers will go on strike sometime next month or early December. With barge and truck traffic already handicapped, a strike could cripple the supply / distribution system beyond the problems we’ve already seen.

Nearly one in five Americans have skipped meals or did not buy groceries due to surging inflation, including 28 percent of Gen Z and 23 percent of millennials, according to a recent survey.
Seventeen percent of respondents said they were receiving food items from a food bank, including 22 percent of millennials, while 17 said they have stopped buying healthier food options. Eighteen percent said they had skipped meals or did not buy groceries.
Beyond facing food insecurity, the same survey also found that high inflation is forcing Americans to delay certain healthcare expenses. Fourteen percent of Americans have canceled or postponed plans to see a healthcare specialist, ten percent have delayed taking prescribed medication, and 11 percent stalled receiving a yearly physical.

OBSERVATION – There is a parallel trend of increased demand on food banks. Retired and on a fixed income, this hasn’t affected me, though it is still a concern needing to be watched. However, millennials and Gen Z have a lot of unnecessary expenses on wasteful items that could be trimmed back to free up money for food and medical care. Just an observation from my millennial children and their budgeting priorities.

CW2/Domestic violence –

“The leak made those of us who were thought to be in the majority in support of overruling Roe and Casey targets for assassination because it gave people a rationale reason to think they could prevent that from happening by killing one of us.” - Justice Alito on the Dobbs leak

OBSERVATION - And yet months later, there has been no identification of, or reckoning for, the person(s) who leaked the draft opinion. Political assassinations would be a major escalation in the CW2 matrix. So far it has been words of violence with some liberals attempting to act out the rhetoric of violence spewed out by democrats.

Assassination of a USSC justice in the present situation would be very dangerous indeed to our country.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., off the top rope - -
“John Fetterman is the only American politician who makes Joe Biden sound like Winston Churchill,”
OUCH, that will leave a mark.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The United States has expedited the fielding of the upgraded B61-12 air-dropped gravity bomb to NATO bases in Europe. The original target date was Spring 2023, but is now planned for this December per sources to Politico.

OBSERVATION – I’d be cautious since this is from Politico. Regardless, this would be a common sense measure against the rising threats from putin.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and south. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin, has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.

********
During the night, a Molotov Cocktail was thrown into the central building of United Russia (the political party of Vladimir Putin) on Kutuzovsky Prospekt.

“State-run news agency Interfax cited the press service of Russia’s Federal Security Service as saying a three-day exercise began on Tuesday and will involve the suppression of “threats of a terrorist nature” against officials, deputies and senators.”
Military vehicles brought to downtown Moscow for Putin’s Federal Protective Service (FSO) training exercises. The federal protective service announced these exercises two days ago.
NOTE - Might be anti-coup exercises. FSO is considered highly loyal to Putin. They are in charge of protecting Putin and other high level mafia officials in Russia. This exercise was announced two weeks ago.

NUKE WATCH -
Putin at the meeting with heads of security services of CIS countries reiterated Russian propaganda narratives about Ukraine on biological, nuclear weapons, including on “dirty bomb”. The simple fact that putin personally is pushing the dirty bomb ruse is enough to give second thought to the likelihood of such a false flag.

Russia’s defense minister spoke with his Indian and Chinese counterparts on the “possible use of a dirty bomb by Ukraine”.
NOTE - Russia continued push of this is becoming extremely concerning.

UNCONFIRMED reports that in Moscow, authorities are inspecting the bomb shelters in the city’s schools. The officials involved have been directed to get the shelters in working order. Notifications have gone out in Moscow to inform residents that bomb shelters are being prepared in hospitals, converting underground garages and other site. Similar actions are being taken in other major Russian cities. Emergency warning systems are being tested. Lists of locations suitable to be converted into additional shelters are being compiled.
NOTE – This may be linked to the current Russian strategic nuclear exercise, a commonsense exercise addition to review such preparations. However, the emphasis and urgency raises some concerns.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting continues around Kreminna and Bakhmut, but there are no reports of any real Russian progress.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations west of Svatove.

Drones/missile strikes hit various areas of Ukraine.

Kyiv front ——
Over 6 attacks with Shahed drones in Kyiv region overnight, some were shot down by air defense

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ongoing push towards Svatove continues in a methodological manner. Russian artillery fire noted along the LOC.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Same old, same old. Russia launched multiple ground attacks in the vicinity of Bakhmut and Donetsk with the same results – being driven back.

Crimean front ———
Situation relatively static in N Kherson Oblast. Ukraine reportedly continuing to strike Russian logistical, command and troop concentrations.

Crimea power plant targeted by overnight Ukranian drone attack according to occupation authorities in Crimea. No blackout, casualties or significant damage reported.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight and were again mostly drone attacks. Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia! south of Kyiv, the Vinnytsia regio, Kramatorsk and Dnipro were all areas with reported impacts.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

An extensive fire occurred last night near the railway station in Russian occupied Shakhtark, Donetsk Oblast. Some reports the fuel tanks were sabotaged by partisans to damage the important railway lines, other reports suggest Ukrainian artillery strikes. New explosions and fires in Shakhtarsk, as the fires continue.

OUTLOOK ——
Situation still relatively static, though could rapidly change. Key areas to watch out for -
- Any actual ‘dirty bomb’ event
- Ongoing offensive in Kherson (and what the Russians are up to there)
- Ongoing offensive in the east, any breakthrough against Svatove

Belarus -

No activity that indicates a Belarus invasion into N Ukraine. Scattered reports appear to be support to training Russian mobilized conscripts.

Israel -

IAF airstrikes reported over Damascus, Syria. Likely Israeli aircraft targeting IRGC militia weapons movements again.

Israeli raids targeted sites of Maher al-Assad’s Fourth Division

OBSERVATION – Almost routine strikes against Hezbollah sites and operations.

Iran -

Some of the largest protests so far spread across most of the country. Protestors are also starting to push back on the violence being inflicted on them by IRGC elements by attacking and killing them when given the opportunity.
US has seen indications Russia is considering training Iranians to help them crack down on Iran Protests, according to White House NSC spokesman John Kirby.

WH also said that nuclear negotiations are dead in the water for now.

ISIS claims responsibility on its telegram channel for the Shiraz attack in which at least 13 people were killed. Iranian President warned that the Shiraz terrorist attack will not go unanswered, and our enemies seek revenge by spreading division and violence.

OBSERVATION – A great deal of chaos hitting Iran from multiple directions. Note earlier saber rattling towards Azeri’s as well.

Syria -

Israeli airstrikes – see above

Venezuela -

Life in progressive dreamland continues to go more hellish. Maduro officials have accelerated ongoing efforts to close radio stations and seize transmission equipment belonging to independent media outlets in the country. Officials have closed 50 radio stations since the beginning of the year, with 15 closures coming in the last month, a significant increase from only nine closures last year. The closures reflect larger efforts by the Maduro government to consolidate government control over media in the country, which has left only 12 newspapers and 74 news and political radio stations, most of which are controlled by government agencies.

OBSERVATION – Surprised this level of censorship wasn’t instituted earlier.

Well, another Friday and a weekend inbound

Globalism / Great Reset –

This has been out there for a few days, just catching up to it.
Voter analytics firm PredictWise harvested location data from tens of millions of US cellphones during the initial Covid lockdown months and used this data to assign a “Covid-19 decree violation” score to the people associated with the phones.
These Covid-19 decree violation scores were calculated by analyzing nearly two billion global positioning system (GPS) pings to get “real-time, ultra-granular locations patterns.” People who were “on the go more often than their neighbors” were given a high Covid-19 decree violation score while those who mostly or always stayed at home were given a low Covid-19 decree violation score.
Location data and survey data are just two of the many types of data PredictWise claims to have access to. According to its white paper, PredictWise also tracks “telemetry data” (which is “passively sourced cell-phone data”), media consumption data, and unregistered voter data (which contains verified data on over 50 million unregistered voters that’s updated daily and sourced from credit files and portal registration data).
In total, PredictWise says its data “tracks the opinions, attitudes, and behaviors” of over 260 million Americans – a figure that represents 78% of the entire US population of 333 million.

OBSERVATION – This kind of locational data integrations with other metadata available to a private source is scary dangerous. It shows that key components of the GGR/WEF individual tracking and control desires via technology are available and being used for similar purposes. No need to embed spyware, its all out there in the ethersphere. Imagine the chaos that a global ruling elite can inflict if actual tracking software was mandated into smart phones, etc.

New PM Sunak’s WEF background is coming forward and British banking and way of life may be on the cusp of switching to a social credit score monitored digital currency. Sunak has explicitly endorsed central bank digital currencies and will now be overseeing their implementation in the British economy as Prime Minister.
“Central Bank Digital Currencies could be a digital version of money, a bit like a digital banknote, that could be used alongside physical notes and coins. Unlike most of the digital money people use daily today, it would be issued directly by a central bank…and governments and central banks across the world are working together looking into what having a digital currency what mean in practice,” Sunak said in a propaganda video pushing digital currency.
“It’s all part of the wider story of digital innovation that has delivered benefits to millions around the world and in the U.K.,” he added.

OBSERVATION – More and more reasons embedded globalists in Britain maneuvered the removal of the two previous PM’s to get this guy in.

Egypt is preparing to stage COP27, an international forum where they try to get the countries of the world to toe the line on emission reductions to meet the fairy tale goals of climate change temperature reductions. COP26 was a dumpster fire as the world was coming out of the wuhan plandemic. This year, Russian oil/gas cut offs have forced countries to refire coal and oil generation facilities with fuels coming from other sources. Countries deciding that keeping their citizens warm this winter and the factories operating was more important than meeting their emission goals.
Another component of the COPs concerns the transfer of wealth to poor, third world nations. The latest estimates to finance developing nations’ climate goals are in the scale of $6 trillion through 2030, according to the OECD. But with rich and poor economies alike grappling with rising inflation, falling revenue, and often political upheaval, finding that kind of money looks more difficult by the day. Shoukry acknowledged those concerns and called on governments to rise to the financial challenge, as they did during the pandemic.

OBSERVATION – wuhan and Ukraine have generated unintended consequence for the globalist take over of power and money. This year’s COP27 will likely be another contentious round that results in nothing being achieved.

PayPal’s $2500 fine is back on the front burner, the threat for spreading ‘misinformation’ never being taken off its terms of agreement. This censorship club is right inline with GGR goals. Infact PayPal is a big WEF operator.
PayPal’s Usman Ahmed, is one of 109 Young Global Leaders included in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2022 class.
The WEF has been relying on its Young Global Leaders to push its agenda, the WEF has pushed for the use of digital identity-tracking platforms and “social credit score” systems – strikingly similar to PayPal’s new policy.

PayPal is also an official corporate partner of the WEF, and several high-level employees from the company have routinely contributed articles to the group’s site and participated in its events. Dan Schulman, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, has authored articles for the WEF including “Technology is delivering better access to financial services. Here’s how” and “The thing that separates good companies from great ones: Trust.”
PayPal’s Head of Global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Strategy is also a member of the WEF’s Global Future Council on Social Cohesion and Just Transition.
In addition to being a WEF Young Global Leader, PayPal’s Ahmed has authored articles for the WEF website, including “To address inequalities we need a new vision for trade.”

OBSERVATION – Shocked, shocked I tell you.

Economy –

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday said she does not see signs of a recession after the Commerce Department released data showing the economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year.
Speaking on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront” in Ohio, Yellen said that “what we’re seeing right now is solid growth this quarter” in the economy and low unemployment across the workforce.
“It’s very natural that growth would slow. And it has over the first three quarters of this year, but it continues to be OK,” she said. “We have a very strong labor market. I don’t see signs of a recession in this economy at this point.”

OBSERVATION - One word - “transitory”.

More on the diesel crisis - After reports that diesel inventories are now down 20% below the five-year average, diesel shortages are likely to persist. Price spikes are forecast for the next six months as inventories sit at their lowest levels since 1996, and previously 1954, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

OBSERVATION - WARNING, any significant hit to the US from either a natural disaster or a man caused disaster could be made worse due to the lack of diesel necessary for the response elements to provide aid. This would expand to the unaffected areas as fuel is diverted to disaster relief related work. Thus truckers would stop trucking, trains stop training and river traffic (what’s left that can navigate the shallow water) to be limited.
And YES, this affects gasoline as it is diesel engines that bring the gasoline to your station. Numerous other secondary and tertiary effects can be expected.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index shows a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in September, while the core PCE Price Index came in at a month-over-month measure of 0.5%. Year-over-year PCE data for September stayed the same at 6.2%, and yearly core PCE numbers increased to 5.1% from 4.9% in August, still beating expectations.

OBSERVATION – The core index makes it easier to see the underlying inflation trend by excluding two categories – food and energy – where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. They are an indicator of future inflationary trends.

Drought is expanding across America’s crop belt making it so dry that in some fields, fertilizer is evaporating from the soil, and plants are struggling to emerge from the ground. Three quarters of winter wheat is in a moderate to intense drought, a record high based on data going back to 2000.

OBSERVATION – Not a good trend. Third winter in a row hammering winter wheat. Though I pull back a degree from an impending global famine, this, combined with weather related crop failures across the globe (like the recent floods in Australia taking out a massive amount of its wheat and other crops) raises concerns and will continue to drive inflation via food prices – outside the efforts of the Fed rate increases to control.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden claimed that gas was “over $5” when he came into office. That isn’t even CLOSE to true. The average price of gas was $2.39/gallon when Biden took over.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Just breaking - Paul Pelosi, the speaker’s husband, was violently attacked after an assailant broke into their SF home. The speaker was not in SF at the time.

OBSERVATION - Contrary to the swarm of social media statements attributing the assault to MAGA and blaming republicans for stoking violence, the likely assailant is probably one with a long history of crime – likely a democrat.

What is notable about this event so far is the knee jerk reactions by the left claiming republicans and MAGA in particular are calling for violence. This shows a threshold of a divide between the left and right in regards to just who is calling for violence. As we’ve seen since the Berkeley riots in 2016 thru the BLM/Antifa firestorm of 2020, the left has demonstratively gone violent – with support from democrats in many ways. Similar violence on the right is largely absent – even with the events of J6 which paled in comparison to the destruction in DC in 2016 thru 2020.
This leftist mindset conditions them to be justified when they launch violence towards the right.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

PayPal still includes the “wrongthink” clause in their T&C, which allows them to fine you $2,500 for having ideas they don’t like, despite the public outcry and the shares falling 10%+ after it first hit news.
See GGR above for more on PayPal.

Meanwhile, twitterverse is in great turmoil as Musk has kicked out key personnel from their positions. In many ways, its good popcorn time. In others, irrational fears and bitterness is flowing like a river.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Midterms rapidly approaching and there are a plethora of conflicting news items out there on polls, elections schemes, etc. Hold tight and vote.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Defense Department officially abandoned the effort to pursue a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile, according to the Nuclear Posture Review unveiled today. The SLCM-N initiative, which received support from the Joint Chiefs and U.S. Strategic Command, was found to be of “zero value” in the most recent U.S. nuclear weapons review, a senior defense official told reporters in a Thursday briefing.
And at the same time the Pentagon also confirmed it was retiring the B83-1 gravity bomb - 80 to 100 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War Two.
“Our inventory of nuclear weapons is significant. We determined as we looked at our inventory that we don’t need that capability,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Thursday.

OBSERVATION – Start of a covert/overt degradation of our nuclear deterrent? Our delivery systems are in serious need of updating as well as the bombs themselves. This may reflect biden et al efforts to reduce the needed upgrades.

The US air force plans to replace its entire fleet of F-15 fighter jets based in Okinawa, Japan, with a “rotational” force, a shift that some American and Japanese officials worry will send a dangerous signal to China about deterrence.
The air force intends to retire two squadrons of aging F-15 Eagles that have been permanently based in Okinawa, according to six people familiar with the situation. The decision has triggered alarm in some parts of the Japanese government and the Pentagon because the air force does not intend to replace them with a permanent presence in the near term.
The move will involve half of the roughly 100 air force fighters in Japan and is part of a modernization program. Critics are concerned about possible gaps that could weaken the ability to deter China.

OBSERVATION – Cost cutting move to and extent. This is essentially a drawdown in the far east theatre that China will see clearly. Bad timing, very bad timing.

North/South Korea -

North Korea fired 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea overnight. Initial indications are the short-range ballistic missiles may have been launched from Tongchon area in Kangwon Province This NK’s first missile test in two weeks.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

One year ago the incident that started the dominoes falling to the current war occurred. Video footage showing Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB2 combat strike against an alleged separatist artillery position in Donbas was released. It turns out it was a Russian artillery unit supporting the separatists, and Russia wasn’t’ too happy about being exposed as directly supporting the separatists as well as having its unit being blown up. Russia began to move forces from all across the nation into Belarus and Russian (and Russian controlled) territory adjacent to Ukraine for a series of ‘exercises’.

We tracked its start here -

“Ukraine -
Ukraine has used a TB2 drone against separatist (Russian) artillery position which was in violation of Minsk agreements withdrawal range. Artillery appears to be D-30 towed howitzers.” –

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=653#653

And the subsequent build up starting here
“Reports coming in that Russia is building up military forces near its borders with Ukraine in response to the Ukranian drone attack on separatist (Russian) artillery. Among many reports included trains bearing T-72B1 with reactive armor and later BMP-2s.”

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=655#655

The rest is history

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.

********
Logistics –
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization decree. Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. “Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results,” he said. Regional authorities are working on providing “the missing gear,” Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov “is personally responsible for this” as part of Putin’s new council.
NOTE – There have been reports of conscripted mobilists being equipped with Air Soft ‘kit’ in place of real equipment. Also many have been forced to pay for their kit out of their pockets, and issued rusty rifles.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant around Kreminna and Bakhmut, without significant changes to report. Russian shelling remained intensive around Kreminna and Bakhmut and north of Kherson, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.

Russian air/missile/drone strikes continued yesterday and overnight with still a significant reliance on the Iranian supplied drones. They continued to be more sporadic than earlier intensive waves,

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
A few Russian artillery stikes.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery strikes along the border NW of Kharkiv city.

Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks all along the LOC from Donetesk north to the Lysychansk region, with no success. Attacks were supported by limited artillery fire

Crimean front ———
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Same as before. Russia being pressured by Ukrainian assaults in the east and south. Ukraine also continues to target key logistic, command and troop concentrations.

Action in the east against Svatov shows the greatest potential for a Ukranian breakthrough. Such a case would be disastrous for Russia as it sits on major supply lines to the south and would permit Ukraine another romp through the Russian rear areas, poorly manned and equipped.

Future actions in Kherson are very clouded, as activity levels on both sides are way down from recent days.

Russia’s nuclear and dirty bomb rhetoric has toned down from the recent week. Still a great deal of fog concerning the actual purpose of the PR blitz.

Finally, strikes by Russian purchased Iranian drones, in addition to its own missiles are down substantially from last week. Russia has tossed a lot of the Iranian drones at Ukraine targeting its electrical infrastructure and may just be running low on stocks. Ukrainian success rate at taking the drones down runs between 70-80% so Russia has to fire a lot in order to get enough on target to effect things.

.
Europe / NATO General -

Bloomberg today reports, the Swiss banking giant, Credit Suisse, was close to a liquidity crisis. On Thursday, it said one or more of its units breached liquidity requirements this month when depositors pulled their money amid speculation about the lender’s turnaround plan.
Translation: the bank admits it suffered a bank run. According to a bank statement, the withdrawals were triggered by “negative press and social media coverage based on incorrect rumors” and made worse because the bank had limited its access to debt markets in the weeks before it unveiled its restructuring plan. Liquidity and funding ratios for the group as a whole have been maintained at all times.

OBSERVATION - Credit Suisse is hanging on by its fingernails. If it fails, banks throughout Europe could quickly follow suit.

Iran -

Protests/riots have increased in intensity in recent days. A number of casualties were reported as Iranian security forces fired at protesters in multiple cities. Amnesty International says security forces have killed eight people since Wednesday.

Heavy clashes broke out between protesters and government forces in Mahabad in northern Iran on Thursday, as an anti-regime protester Ismail Moloudi, who was killed by security forces, was buried in the city. After the funeral, crowds of protesters marched toward and surrounded the governor’s office in Mahabad, with intense clashes breaking out throughout the city.

Heavy gunfire was heard in videos of Mahabad and, according to Hengaw, at least three protesters were shot dead by Iranian forces during the protests in Mahabad, named as Shaho Khazri, Zanyar Abubakri and Kubra Sheikh Saqa.

Two Basij / IRGC members were shot and killed by unidentified people in Amol on Thursday night as they were leaving a mosque, according to ISNA. Similar shootings were reported in Tehran, Malayer and other cities on Wednesday night, according to the report.

Iranian oil and petrochemical workers announced a nationwide strike starting on Saturday in solidarity with the ongoing nationwide protests, stating that they would walk out of the plants they work at, according to a statement by the Organizing Council for Protests of Oil Contract Workers.

OBSERVATION - The Iranian govt is losing control over the riots as the protestors are losing their fear of physically confronting Basij / IRGC enforcers.

Iraq -

Iraq’s government continues to pull itself together. The Iraqi parliament voted by an absolute majority on the ministerial program for the government of Muhammad al-Sudani.

Lebanon -

Lebanese President - We concluded the maritime border agreement with Israel so that no war would break out

Saudi Arabia -

Saudi leaders are expecting to meet with Chinese President Xi soon.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The European Union (EU) announced Thursday that it will be outlawing the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035 even though EU countries are already struggling to fight soaring electricity costs. EU member states and the European Commission agreed to force all new cars and vans registered in the EU to be electric by 2035.

OBSERVATION – Another blind move by the greenies without thinking it through. They are so hell-bent on imposing their green solution that they will willingly destroy their countries to implement. This may have consequences in countries struggling with power to either ignore the dictate, or leave the union.

GGR elements WANT to burn it all down so they can rule over the ashes.

Economy –

Economists widely expect another three quarters of a percentage point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November, but there’s much less agreement about what happens next.

OBSERVATION - Increasing the prime by such a large step – in conjunction with previous large increases, will serve to throw the country into a serious recession.

California is considering a proposal by state air regulators to phase out the sale of medium and heavy-duty gas-powered vehicles within the next 20 years.
If adopted, all new medium and heavy-duty vehicles sold in the Golden State will be required to be zero-emission by 2040. Additionally, the proposal outlines a phased approach to adding zero-emission vehicles to certain fleets at the state and federal levels.
Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs at the California Trucking Association, told board members that the charging infrastructure necessary to implement the proposal will require 65 to 160 megawatts, “enough capacity to power a small city.”

OBSERVATION – Another example of the foolishness of the greenies and their blindness to the impacts of their plans. Like the EU (see GGR above), electric trucks will not be capable of moving the volumes they do today – see how the touted Ford electric truck couldn’t even pull a trailer much over 90 miles on a full charge. And Kalifornia’s regulation will ripple into the other states who either have to alter their standards for all electric, or set up shipping transfer stations outside of it for diesel trucks to take over. But then common sense is totally absent in the greenies – only pushing for their green utopia single mindedly.

Invasion of Illegals -

Guatemalan Interior Minister Napoleon Barrientos warned that massive migrant caravans are heading for the US border. He said the surge of migrants is due, in part, to fears that Republicans may take back control of Congress and push for tougher measures aimed at curbing illegal migration.
Speaking with the Daily Caller, Barrientos said that Guatemalan authorities “have information that caravans will be coming in the next few weeks, particularly before the date of November 8,” adding that they are conducting operations within the country to “stop the flow migration.”
He added that illegal aliens in the caravans are basing their decisions on “information … that after [November 8], policies will be hardened.” In other words, they know Joe has open borders but the GOP does not.

OBSERVATION – With lower temperatures, movement is better – at least before winter sets in. The midterm election assessment is likely accurate, though any push by a republican congress for tougher measures will need a veto proof majority which even with a red wave is unlikely.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The Justice Department released a summary of its “comprehensive” Election Day plan Wednesday and said it is aimed at ensuring that “all qualified voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots and have their votes counted free of discrimination, intimidation or fraud in the election process. “Consistent with longstanding Justice Department practices and procedures,” the Civil Rights, Criminal and National Security Divisions will spearhead the effort.

However, the wording and potential implementation of the ‘plan” has made many concerned that the DoJ will focus only on Republican-led states on Election Day in a bid to prop up chances for a Democratic victory. These concerns are reinforced by the DoJ refusing release its strategic plan for implementing President Biden’s executive order on voting access and so far, DOJ has only released a heavily redacted copy.

OBSERVATION – If DoJ targets red states to the exclusion of blue, then the perception of a dual law will be reinforced. This will easily increase anger on the right and cause potential future conflicts. Expect intense lawfare to break out if this is the case. Could result in things tied up in the courts for years.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Mover here from yesterday’s CW2 –

The Paul Pelosi assault story is getting stranger and stranger with time. Yesterday, leftist were crowing that they had found their MAGA “smoking gun” because the accused perp - 42-year-old Berkeley resident David DePape – reported posted conspiracy stuff on his social media pages. Since then those voices have become increasingly silent as further information has come out.

1. The 911 call raises serious red flags –
“RP [Reporting Person] stated that there’s a male in the home and that he’s going to wait for his wife. RP stated that he doesn’t know who the male is but he advised that his name is David, and that he is a friend,” the dispatch official said. “RP sounded somewhat confused.
2. DePape lives in a Berkeley house dubbed a “hippie collective” by neighbors, with BLM, LGBT and other leftist signs/symbols adorning the walls and windows.
3. DePape is reported to be a ‘Former Castro Nudist Protester’ The reference to ‘Castro’ is to the Gay district in San Francisco.
4. Not only was he a nudist but he was a member of the Green Party.
5. Police say that when they responded to the home around 2:30 a.m., they found both struggling for a hammer wearing only their underwear.
6. How did a guy wearing only underwear get past security?
7. Pelosi has a drinking problem (see recent DUI). “somewhat confused”
8. Nancy was out of town

The following is simple speculation – but is this event the result of a ‘lovers spat’? A ‘hook up’ gone bad? The police statements and the sudden silence on the left makes one say ‘hmmmmmm’.

Clearly, the leftist narrative that DePape was some rightwinger is out the window. What is left is clearly strange and will likely be heavily covered up.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The U.S. government warns of a “heightened threat” to the upcoming midterm elections Nov. 8 due to a rise in domestic violence extremism, or DVE, that’s being driven by ideological grievances, according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by CBS News.
The joint intelligence bulletin, which was published Friday, generally references how the “potential targets of DVE violence include candidates running for public office, elected officials, election workers, political rallies, political party representatives, racial and religious minorities, or perceived ideological opponents.”

OBSERVATION – MSM sources have been quick to link this warning to the Pelosi assault (see above). A better example (and one the MSM has ignored) is that of a campaign volunteer for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who was “brutally attacked” by four people who allegedly told him Republicans weren’t allowed in their neighborhood.

China –

China continues to self-inflict economic and domestic pain to itself due to its “covid zero” policy. Most recently, Shanghai’s downtown Yangpu district, a primarily residential area that includes the campuses of Fudan and Tongji Universities, ordered mass testing for its 1.3 million residents on Friday and ordered them to remain in their homes – a chilling echo of the brutal two-month lockdown the entire city endured over the summer.

OBSERVATION – I am beginning to wonder if Xi is changing the wuhan lockdown to be more of a population submission tool than a disease prevention. Since being elected to his third term, he has wrapped himself with hard liners and any free thought (brough on by western-based prosperity, like Shanghai) must be kept in line.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

********

NUKE WATCH -
Putin on Thursday appeared to rule out the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In yet another U-turn over the Kremlin’s willingness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin claimed that there would be no need for Russia to deploy weapons of mass destruction.
“We see no need for that,” Putin told a conference of foreign policy experts. “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military.”

NOTE – Some are not accepting this U-turn. They believe his comments could be part of an effort by the Kremlin to spread disinformation and to set the stage for a Russian deployment of a dirty bomb that may later be blamed on Ukraine. It follows a coordinated effort by the Russian government to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb as part of a false flag attack.

We are not out of the woods yet.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- General Staff of armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 70,250

- Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Putin that 82 000 mobilized men have been already sent to Ukraine, 218000 are trained at firing ranges and that the ‘limited’ mobilization has reached its goals and has ended. Russia’s MOD says 82,000 reservists have been sent to Ukraine after completing training. Another 218,000 are in combat training.

- Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed a Ukrainian intelligence report that the Wagner Group is recruiting prisoners with HIV and Hepatitis C to fight in Ukraine

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be concentrated south and east of Bakhmut, near Kreminna and northwest of Donetsk City in the southeast of the country. It has also reportedly increased significantly south of Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast. Russian shelling was intensive around Davydiv Brid, Bakhmut, north of Donetsk City, on and around Mykolaiv and near Kharkiv the last 24hrs

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian army shelled Hay, Khrinivka and Leonivka of Chernihiv Oblast border region.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly secured much of the Svatove-Kreminna highway now isolating several Russian units (this would be the N-S running Hwy 66). Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks northwest of Donetesk that were repulsed. General artillery fire along the LOC northeast of Donetsk with sporatic attacks to the west.

Crimean front ———
Sporatic Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.

Reports that Russia may soon implement a mandatory 100% civilian evacuation of Kherson city.

HIMARS time, as several powerful explosions were reported at a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka.

There was an attack by Ukrainian UAVs/loitering munitions & UUVs targeting the military facilities of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol this morning, according to the Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Natya-class minesweeper (Project 266M) “Ivan Golubets” of the Black Sea Fleet received “minor damage” in an apparent Ukrainian attack. Unconfirmed Russian media reports that frigate Admiral Makarov Radar mast has been damaged. Another potential target – a large oil storage facility – was barely missed by at least one drone.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
No big moves that can be predicted in the near term. Ukraine is continues to push east and may be close to breaking thru Russian defenses of Svatov. Ukraine action in Kherson Oblast continues to be cautious as it evaluates Russian troop reinforcements and defensive positions.

Wagner group militias will continue to attack the Bakhmut region as any success there bolsters its position in the eyes of Russian nationalist talking heads and milbloggers - providing them clout and influence with putin.

Latest info on Belarus (see below) suggests the threat of a renewed attack from the north including Belarus military is greatly reduced.

Russia’s rhetoric on nukes is all over the board still, but putin could be pulling back given the push back and potential ramifications of a strike from NATO countries – possibly a stronger response than he anticipated.

Belarus -

Exercises of the Belarusian Armed Forces are extended till at least November 7 in Belarus.

OBSERVATION – Belarus/Russian activity continues to be conducted in central and western areas of Belarus. No troop buildup near any approaches to Kyiv.

The Lukashenka regime handed over more than 65,000 tons of ammunition to Russia in 7 months. According to Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun, Minsk has sent around 1,940 railcars with ammunition to Russia since March.

OBSERVATION – The amount of armor/tanks and now ammunition transferred to Russia from Belarus indicates that the threat of an attack by the Belarus or even the Russians from there is very slim. With Belarus war stocks so depleted, and Russia unable to resupply (all its ammo/equipment going into Ukraine) any attack would be stopped quickly, if even their military went along with the order.

.
Europe / NATO General -

The EU appointed Polish General Piotr Trytek to lead its training operation for Ukraine’s military. Trytek has experience in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This underscores Poland’s critical role in training Ukrainian forces, as the EU training program’s command centers are in Poland and Germany

OBSERVATION – This makes sense, given Poland’s proximity to Ukraine and their relationship since the start of conflict.

Israel -

With the impending 5th election in 3 years, Netanyahu is favored to become PM once again. However, the potential coalition he would lead would only have a slim margin in parliament.

Iran -

Protests continue. Iran is accusing Washington of training protesters and inciting the Mahsa Amini family against it. Clashes are becoming increasingly violent.

IRGC and Basij elements have been damaging stores and businesses in various cities, probably those supporting the riots via closures.

OBSERVATION - IRGC and Basij tactics and violence is creating martyrs for the protestor’s cause and anger because of business destruction. Both are contributing to the energization of the protestors.

Internet provider is having hiccups and I’m off and on the internet sporatically. This is totally screwing up my research this morning, so some things may be a little more abbreviated than normal.

Wuhan virus –

With respiratory illnesses spreading among children more widely and earlier than in previous years, hospital leaders and medical experts say pediatric hospital beds across the state are in short supply.
After two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19 — medical experts say the number of children developing respiratory illnesses is already much higher this year, leading to more visits to health care centers and increasingly strained resources to treat those children.
Experts say the strain stems from overburdened hospital systems still reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a shortage of medical providers.

He said the prevalence of the flu this year is an unintended consequence of masking and isolating during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“As a community, worldwide, we didn’t develop those antibodies that are usually present in the community at some level to protect people,” he said.

OBSERVATION – Related to wuhan because it is a continuation of the negative impacts of the lockdown/masking farce. ALSO NOTE – they are trying to link “two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19” when reality is flu was commonly diagnosed as wuhan. Children have suffered a lot, not only on this subject, but in language skill development, social development, and scholastic development.

Economy –

Core inflation ticked up in September as measured by the gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, a troubling sign that price pressures are not diminishing despite the central bank’s aggressive efforts to tighten monetary policy.
Core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices, rose two-tenths of a percentage point to a 5.1% annual rate, as tracked by the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is more than forecast and higher than August’s 4.9%. Headline inflation, meanwhile, stayed steady at 6.2%, according to the data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday morning. “With core inflation accelerating instead of moderating, this suggests that solid price growth has continued unabated (at least for now),” tweeted Chad Moutray, the chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers.

OBSERVATION – Just more bad news the US and worse for biden et al going into the midterms. As noted, things continue to get worse, not better. Throw in energy and food prices continuing to increase and the picture is worse.

Bloomberg is reporting distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow.
The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Companies that binged on low-cost borrowing in recent years are facing the prospect of refinancing at exorbitant yields — if they can find any investors — as the Federal Reserve raises rates to battle persistent inflation, threatening to push the economy into recession. Some market participants see distress leading to default, and for some companies, bankruptcy.

“You’re going to see a lot more distressed companies borrowing at a much higher rate,” said Jordana Renert, a restructuring lawyer with Lowenstein Sandler. “I don’t think it’s going to be everybody falling off a cliff — I think it’s going to sort of be a slow movement, an uptick in the bankruptcy cycle.”

OBSERVATION – With the continued expected rise of Fed rates, credit costs will rise proportionately. Bankruptcy during a recessive economic period will increase above normal numbers creating more economic hardships.

In view of the current chaos in the petrochemical, and specifically the fuel industry, there are democrat voices out there starting to call for the nationalization of the industry.

At a Houston conference last week, Jason Bordoff, Dean of Columbia University’s Climate School, called for the “nationalization” of oil and gas companies. “Government must take an active role in owning assets that will become stranded,” he said, “and plan to strand those assets.” By “strand” Bordoff meant “make financially worthless.” Bordoff made the point at least twice during the conference.

OBSERVATION – Nationalization of industries is a very common tactic of socialist tyrants in order to further control the country and enforce its policies. In this case Bordoff is also a big WEF player, so nationalization would make shutting the industry down much simpler than in an open market scenario. Barring some bizarre change in the US situation – such as a megacrisis that could provide the necessary leverage and coverage – nationalization in the US would face an uphill fight.

Invasion of Illegals -

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) on Friday blamed Republicans and former President Donald Trump for the situation at the border, saying that virtually all Trump border policies are still in place today with the exception of family separation.

OBSERVATION – Of course this is an election year and in the face of an abysmal democrat record on (not) defending the border democrat politicians have to resort to lying.

CW2/Domestic violence –

A record 56 percent of respondents said they believe there is more crime locally now that there was a year ago. Nearly four in five (78 percent) said crime increased nationwide since last year, a 33-year-high, according to Gallup, which has conducted the survey every year since 1972.

OBSERVATION – The exposure of soros-lawyers is pretty well established and their goal is to keep criminals on the street while sometimes legislatively reducing charging/sentencing standards, not to mention “defund the police”. This is deliberate and condoned by the progressive democrat left – all part of putting the people in fear to condition them to accept the govt solution – one of which being a nationalized police force.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Less than 24 hours after Elon Musk took over as Chief Twit of Twitter, a fact-check has been placed on one of Joe Biden’s @POTUS tweets because… he’s lying. Biden tweeted, “Let me give you the facts. In 202, 55 corporations made $40 billion. And they paid zero in federal taxes. My Inflation Reduction Act puts an end to this.”
Twitter took the opportunity to add context that said, “Out of the 55 corporations the tweet referenced only 14 had earnings greater than $1 billion and would be eligible under Biden’s tax law.”

OBSERVATION – Liberal heads bursting all over the twitterverse . . . . .

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Pelosi story continues to get stranger and stranger.

It has now been revealed that DePape allowed Pelosi to ‘go to the toilet’ from where he made is cell phone 911 call.

Police reports indicate at third party let them into the house, arriving at the moment the struggle for the hammer began.

At least two online blogs under DePape’s name are stocked with posts from the years of 2007 and 2022 speaking of “censorship,” “Big Brother,” and pedophiles. One contained calls for violence and antisemitic content. It was not immediately clear that he was responsible for the posts
The problem is the websites cited by the mainstream media that were supposedly aligned with DePape were created on Friday and they are no longer active today, Saturday.
The site Godisloving.wordpress.com was opened on Friday and shut down on Saturday. The other site listed, www.frenlyfrens.com/blog is no longer active as well. It too was created Friday and shut down on Saturday. The only activity on this site as well was in the last two days.

Apparently, there is police body-cam footage, so it will be clear if the person who let the cops in was neither Pelosi nor DePape. It will show also if both Pelosi & DePape were indeed in their underwear. It will also show if both were indeed holding hammers.

RUMMORS BIGLY – Allegedly, DePape has told investigators they were engaging in gay sex and the fight was over drugs. Also, the Pelosi’s are refusing to turn over surveillance videos of the night in question.

OBSERVATION – I mean, honestly, the facts surrounding this event are weird beyond even San Francisco standards. Especially the claim of the creation of two bogus website/blog sites. The left tried initially to paint DePape as a MAGA – that has blown up in their face and the ongoing silence (other than generic rage over the attack) is loud.

ONE LAST THING help me out here. Do the news reports state where Pelosi was coming from when he got his DUI??????

Nearly 250,000 ballots, state data show, were mailed to Pennsylvania voters without their identities being verified, according to the election integrity organization Verity Vote.
Citing the information provided by Verity Vote, 15 Pennsylvania state House representatives sent a letter to acting Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Leigh Chapman on Tuesday.
Citing testimony from Deputy Secretary for Elections and Commissions Jonathan Marks, the legislators pointed out that ballots are being “mailed to unverified applicants.”

OBSERVATION – Deliberate, forcing against court orders and legislation. Only when registrars and those who send these things out go to jail will this form of cheating stop. Now, every one of these ballots will be challenged to be accepted as valid for the count, just wait and see. Deliberate sabotage of the election.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

********
Russia suspends participation in grain deal after Ukrainian attack
The decision was made due to attacks on ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, according to the Defense Ministry. UN concerned that this will result in cutoff of grain shipments to meet global needs and demands. Ukraine states that the Russian embargo makes the export of grain “impossible”.

NUKE WATCH -
Russia warns that the nuclear threshold has been lowered as NATO accelerates deployment of modernized nuclear weapons to Europe.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- High-ranking Wagner officer killed by Ukrainian special forces in combat.
Ukrainian special forces unit “Khort” reported that it had killed the deputy chief of staff of the Russian state-backed military company Wagner.

- RIA Novosti’s Alexander Kharchenko says that Central Military District Commander Colonel General Lapin was relieved. He praises the performance of Central District units, which suggests that he disagrees with the decision (other mil bloggers will as well).
Lapin reportedly lost his position due to his devastating failure to deploy and organize mobilized men in his zone of responsibility, and there have been reports of poor treatment of untrained mobilized men on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline under Lapin’s command. However, other sources say he is stepping down due to “health reasons”.
Lapin’s removal has exposed a growing conflict between the old guard generals in the Kremlin, various milbloggers (pro and con), Wager and putin’s inner circle.

- Military economist Marcus Keupp: “Russia has realistically lost 60,000 as KIA and 120,000 as WIA, numerically seen everyone they have sent in the beginning in February.”

- The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There were no significant reported changes in fighting activity or any significant reported gains yesterday. Only exception being reduced action around Bakhmut. Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian shelling continued to be significantly intensive around Bakhmut, Kreminna and north of Kherson yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.

Ukraine is currently detecting and intercepting nearly 90 percent of the Iranian-made Shahed 136 UAVs serving as suicide drones. Even with nearly 90 percent of Shahed 136s intercepted, enough get through to damage infrastructure, especially power plants. However, this also forces Russia to launch large numbers of drones in order to get enough thru defenses to hit targets.
The low-flying Shahed 136 engine is so loud it can be heard several kilometers away and, while rifle and machine-gun bullets are effective against it, larger caliber weapons like 12.7mm machine-guns and 20mm or larger autocannon are much more lethal. Another vulnerability of the Shahed 136 is that its inexpensive components are often unreliable and a large portion of them fail before reaching a target.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia has been launching limited attacks across the border northeast of the city in an apparent effort to fix Ukrainian resources from being used elsewhere.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces appear to have slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, probably due to an Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for an attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.
NOTE – HIMARS carries a warhead that unleashes titanium balls over a large radius – essentially shredding everything in that radius.

Crimean front ———
Kerson front relatively stable, but no specific details being released by either Ukraine or Russia.

Ukraine released a video from the attack on Sevastopol. It shows a naval drone targeting the Black Sea Fleet’s Admiral Makarov Project 11356 frigate, which Russian sources said was damaged (it replaced the Moskva as the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship). The extent of damage to the Makarov is still speculative.
NOTE - video appears to have been taken from a remote controlled boat. Strong likelihood this is the same type of surface drone was found near the base several months ago.
Russia has accused British specialists and claimed civilian vessels were involved in attack against Sevastopol.

Russian forces give residents near Kherson two days before forced deportation. The Operational Command “South” reported on Oct. 28 that Russian troops gave locals near Kherson two days before they will be forced to leave their homes and be taken to Russian-occupied Crimea.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Tempo of the fighting should remain about the same based on available info. Break throughs in the east along the Svatove-Kreminna line could occur with very little notice. Same for Kherson in the west.

Russian drone/missile assaults are not at the same rate – possibly indicate shortages of both.

Meanwhile there are reports of more senior changes in command as fractures continue to grow between military commanders, senior ranks and the Kremlin. This is essentially paralyzing the military in its efforts to plan defensive operations in the face of growing demand for offensive measures.

Speaking of changes in command, the essentially neutered Black Sea fleet received another black eye, and the admiral in charge should look to packing his bags. Though damage appears to be minimal, the simple fact that drone boats and drone aircraft were able to penetrate into controlled waters is a big slap in the face. This attack may serve to cause the fleet to withdraw further from threats. It has only been supporting the war effort via cruse missile launches from frigates like the Admiral Makarov. It has long ceased to be an amphibious assault force – losing key ships as well as having its marines shipped off to support ground operations.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS – The utter failure of both the Russian Air Force and Navy to contribute in a significant manner in the last six months is a key element to Russia’s current debacle on the ground. No air superiority established early on and no significant amphibious ops that could have changed the course of the war. Now Russian is losing ground attack aircraft on a daily basis trying to provide support for ground troops and Russian naval vessels working to stay out of the range of Ukrainian anti-ship systems, lobbing scarce (and becoming scarcer) cruse missiles. Combined with the utter failure of ground force operations the whole “special operation” has been a catastrophic failure for the Kremlin. The only thing they have left is the nuclear threat.

Belarus -

Russia continues deployment of troops in Belarus, Russian military activity was recorded between Brest and Malorita. This is in the southwestern corner of the nation.

OBSERVATION – Still no evidence of any invasion into Ukraine from Belarus.

Iran -

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday issued a new warning to Iranians joining in the protests that have roiled the country since last month. ‘Today is the last day of the riots,’ Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami declares, as demonstrations spread to universities across Islamic Republic.
As of this morning, regime forces have sealed off colleges and universities, preventing students from leaving the campuses. Social media accounts covering the protests reported that security forces had not only surrounded multiple campuses in Tehran and Mashhad and were firing towards and arresting students.

At least 270 people have been killed and 14,000 have been arrested in the protests that have swept over 125 Iranian cities, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran.

OBSERVATON – Expect even more violent attempts to put the protests down by the regime forces. I expect reports of massacres in the next few days. At this stage, I don’t think that even that will slow the protests. They have drawn in a wide range of supporters across the country and heavy handedness so far has only added fuel to the fire. Protestors increasingly are framing the protest as a movement to overthrow the govt.

Central / South America General-

Brazil’s heated presidential race has tightened ahead of a Sunday vote, several opinion surveys showed on Saturday, with right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro eroding a slight advantage for leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in most polls.

OBSERVATION – Leftists in Central and S America have been gaining power – much under the radar over the past few years. Brazil is key as it is an economic powerhouse in the region. Even if Bolsonaro is re-elected, he faces stiff resistance from the left.

Globalism / Great Reset –

MOVED HERE DUE TO GGR IMPLICATIONS
In a bitterly-fought election, former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva appears to have defeated incumbent conservative President Jair Bolsonaro 50.9% to Bolsonaro’s 49.1%. As of this morning, Bolsonaro has not conceded the election.

In 2017 Lula da Silva was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison last year after being accused of receiving more than $1m in bribes from construction giant OAS.
An appeals court in January upheld corruption and money-laundering convictions against the 72-year-old. His sentence was extended to 12 years

The President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is listed as a contributing author to the WEF. Potential policies under his administration are -
⁃ In his first days of government, Lula will seek to convene an international climate conference in Brazil with other global leaders, in order to regain trust in the face of global public and political opinion, and to present his new plans for the protection of the Amazon rainforest. “Let’s fight for zero deforestation,” Lula says in first speech as president-elect. “Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, especially the Amazon Forest.”

⁃ On October 29, 2022, in an article written for the French newspaper Le Monde, Lula said that Brazil will return to its leading role in the international stage, especially in the fields of the environment and renewable energies

⁃ On September 10, 2022, Lula promised the return of the Growth Acceleration Program, better known as PAC, and the Minha Casa Minha Vida program, to accelerate economic growth and creation of jobs through public investment.

OBSERVATION – Another nation succumbs to GGR affiliated leadership. GGR/WEF is putting its pieces into place to facilitate an eventual attempt to control the world.

Wuhan virus –

A Swiss study found elevated levels of the protein troponin in all of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients it analyzed, indicating the shots are routinely causing heart injury.
Further, up to 1 in 27 of the vaccinated people in the study showed levels associated with subclinical myocarditis,
Link here (in French) - https://www.cardio-online.fr/Actualites/A-la-une/ESC-2022/Incidence-non-negligeable-myocardites-apres-3-dose-vaccin-ARN-messager-anti-COVID-19

OBSERVATION – I noted something similar a few weeks back. Systemic damage to other organs along with the heart are becoming increasingly documented – and the culprits of this plandemic will skate away scott free.

Economy –

ENERGY WATCH – A growing important subcategory of Economy. Diesel can almost be considered the life blood of the nation’s economy. It drives the farm equipment, trucks, and trains that keep this nation fed and supplied with the necessities of life. We are looking at an unprecedented shortage of diesel reserves this winter (and possibly beyond) and we need to pay attention to what the movers and shakers of the industry are saying and forecasting.

Tom Kloza, dean of U.S. oil analysts at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), told Newsweek. “The issue is global,” said Kloza, adding that diesel inventories around the world are the lowest as they’ve been since 1982, “and we’ve added about 3.4 billion people in that time.”

The weekly data shows that the United States, as of Oct. 21, has 25.9 days of supply—down from 34.2 days of supply five weeks prior.

The diesel market will stay tight into the winter, Chevron Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth warned. “Markets are tight right now. Diesel, in particular, as we’ve seen here recently and likely to stay that way through the winter, I think,” he said during the third quarter earnings call.

Eversource Energy CEO Joe Nolan asked the Biden administration to take emergency measures to prevent a potential natural gas shortage.

The national average price of gasoline has risen to $3.76 driven by prices on the East Coast, which has experienced supply shortages. Inventories on the East Coast have been depleted to historic lows, while imports from Europe and India have slowed due to shortages and refinery maintenance.

Representative Ro Khanna of California has introduced a bill that would bar the export of gasoline during periods when domestic prices are high. The bill does not include an export ban on diesel. Khanna hopes the bill will spur the Biden administration to action.

OVERALL ENERGY OBSERVATION – The implosion of America’s energy independence under biden is unprecedented (I’m beginning to hate that word). Biden pays lip service to Americans on energy, but holds to his stated goals of eliminating the fossil fuel industry in favor of GGR endorsed ‘green energy’.

At the end of October, here’s where America stands — on Biden’s watch — heading into winter:
1. Nationwide and regional diesel fuel shortages threaten every industry
2. Home heating oil shortages and rationing in the Northeast
3. Gas prices continue to climb
4. Inflation remains at record highs with no sign of stopping
5. Home sales hit record lows, priming a new housing crisis
6. Record-high crime could exponentially worsen as Americans fight over available supplies of fuel, food, etc.
7. Possible railroad strike, which would also cripple the U.S. economy overnight

More than six of every 10 acres in the continental United States is in drought, with arid conditions stretching from the Appalachians to the Pacific Coast, said the weekly Drought Monitor on Thursday. Conditions worsened in the Ohio Valley, as warm weather combined with below-normal precipitation to dry the Midwest.
“The extent of dry conditions is on par with 2012, as drought expanded this week across more than half of the U.S. states, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast,” said the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska on social media. The Drought Center produces the Drought Monitor in partnership with the USDA and NOAA.
A week ago, NOAA forecasters said the United States would go through its third La Niña winter in a row, suggesting little relief for winter wheat or low water on the Mississippi. “Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the western United States and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions also may expand to the Gulf Coast.”

OBSERVATION – One thing is certain – food costs will be anchored at their record highs and globally food will be an increasing concern.

IF the US gets a bad ‘bump’ (black swan event) we could face serious shortages here.

CW2/Domestic violence –

It has been interesting to watch the militant Transgender movement using violence to suppress once liberal favored feminists and even LGB views because they don’t accept the radical trans agenda. Antifa et al has attached itself to the trans movement over these others (that is has also supported at times).

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitter’s Board and Law firm may be in very big trouble. Elon Musk tweeted that the Twitter Board and the law firm that worked for Twitter, Wachtell, may have withheld information from him and the court.
This is big news for Twitter and its law firm if it is true. Not only might the Twitter Board and Attorney be in trouble for lying with the court, but the these entities would be in trouble with the SEC as well for filing false statements as we reported earlier as well.

OBSERVATION - The so called smart people at Twitter before Musk forgot apparently to cover all their tracks.

Need more popcorn.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Pelosi story continues to get stranger and stranger.

Nancy Pelosi’s fundraising appeal on the back of the attack on her husband. Well, that’s not strange, but it is typical.

CNN continues to try to push the MAGA card by ‘reporting’ that DePape had (try to hold the shock) ‘zip ties’ with him and BTW so did J6 insurrectionists. CNN and desperate libs try to make the linkage.

It is unbelievable watching the twitterverse libs grasping at straws to avoid what is pretty clear otherwise – this was a lover’s quarrel.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S Air Force is reportedly preparing to deploy up to 6 Nuclear-Capable B-52 Strategic Bombers to RAAF Tindal in Northern Australia.

OBSERVATION – US already has 4 B-1 bombers stationed on Guam. This puts a significant piece of USAF fire power in the east Pacific region.

China –

Xi is tightening his control of the Chinese govt through appointing close allies to key positions. In a move that appears to reflect a larger role for China’s intelligence apparatus in Xi’s third term as President, Chen Yixin was appointed Minister of State Security. Chen, who was elected to the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee during the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress earlier this month, was the chief of the CCP’s anti-corruption unit and a close ally of Xi.
Chen Wenqing, the outgoing Minister of State Security, was promoted to Party Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, responsible for overseeing police, legal affairs, and intelligence.

OBSERVATION – Emphasis on intelligence and security suggest hardened changes to China’s western embrace of economic measures as well as pushing forward a more aggressive foreign policy.

North/South Korea -

South Korea and the U.S today started the planned military exercise Vigilant Storm. A significant number of aircraft have commenced exercises that will continue all week.

OBSERVATION- NK likely to launch more missiles in protest.

Japan –

There are reports coming out that Japan is finalizing negotiations to purchase American Tomahawk cruise missiles. The move comes as part of a continuing effort by Japan to build armaments and a strategic deterrence capability amid threats from China and Russia.
Tomahawk cruise missiles have a range of 1,000 km, providing Japan with a strike capability against targets in China and Russia’s far east that could be expanded if the purchase includes ship-borne naval variants of the missile.

OBSERVATION – Japan is essentially buying ‘off the shelf’ systems probably as an interim measure as it develops and produces its own.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

********
Russia’s missile attacks overnight seemed to lack the use of the Iranian made drones. Likely a response to Ukraine’s drone boat attack in Crimea.

Logistics –
- Reports that new conscripts are being issued older AKS rifles, chambered in 7.62 versus the current standard Russian 5.45mm AK-12. This creates a logistic challenge in providing adequate ammo in a chaotic battle field where there is a mix in rifles and type ammo required.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period. Although wet, temperatures have been relatively mild, mitigating the mud, but that is apparently coming to an end.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia opened up a new case of missiles and launched a bunch of them across Ukraine overnight. Some targets included 3 Hydropower plants in Ukraine: Dniprovska in Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchutska in Svitlovodsk and Dnistrovska as well as public water supply systems. Power outages due to hits near Kyiv and a strike on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Plant in Zaporizhzhia. At least 2 missiles hit critical infrastructure object in Kharkiv. Explosions and missile sightings in the Kyiv and Odesa region. Impacts reported Kyiv and other regions. Ukrainian forces are claiming they intercepted more than 40 missiles, giving some indication as to the size of this morning’s strikes.

Fighting continued to be fierce east of Bakhmut yesterday where more localized Russian offensives were repelled. Russian forces also moved on Pavlivka, southwest of Donetsk City with fierce fighting on its southern fringes.
Russian shelling was far more intensive north and south of Donetsk City yesterday and continues to be intensive near Bakhmut, but was mostly sporadic in the other impacted regions.

ENHANCED WATCH - Ukraine, Turkey and the UN agreed to have vessels carrying food from Ukrainian ports sail tomorrow, pushing back against Russia (Bloomberg). It is reported this morning that about 14 civilian freighters are moving transporting wheat.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR

Donetsk Oblast ——
Activity seems to have slowed somewhat, likely due to weather.

Crimean front ———
Reports that Russia is redeploying artillery units out of the west side of the Dnipir River to probable locations on the east side. Unconfirmed reports that recently mobilized conscripts are being sent to the front lines in Kherson Oblast while the more experienced and better equipped Russian forces are being pulled back to prepare a defense of Kherson.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile strikes in numerous areas

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Winter weather and mud is now starting to be a strategic consideration and will make Russian offensives with armor significantly more difficult. Maneuvers will likely decrease as the ground deteriorates further and armored units are forced to use roads at risk of mines and ambushes.

Analysts suggests that once winter hits, and the ground freezes, conditions will once again favor Ukraine due to its knowledge of the terrain, conditions and better logistical tail, whereas Russia will be in the same pickle it found itself in with the first phase of its war – poorly equipped troops and screwed up logistics.

BTW – there are some out there continuing to thump about a massive Russian second invasion based upon the mobilization. What they fail to factor in is the lack of arms, munitions, support vehicles, artillery and armor/tanks the Russian army currently finds itself in.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova condemns in strongest possible terms Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine. The appalling strikes on critical infrastructure reverberate beyond Ukraine’s borders and pose a direct threat to Moldova’s energy – and human – security.

A Russian missile which was shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces, has fallen in Moldovan village of Naslavcha

Israel -

Israeli parliamentary elections are scheduled for this Tuesday. IDF is on high alert for any terror attempts to disrupt them.
Currently, Netanyahu is projected to recapture the PM position by a slim margin.

Iran -

Two days after the commander-in-chief of Iran’s IRGC said it was the last day of “riots,” students at Amirkabir University of Technology are protesting today. Protestors are becoming increasingly emboldened in the face of lethal methods being used by the regime. Not only has the protests morphed into a revolution , but comparisons are being made to the protests that eventually brought the Shah down.

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