Globalism / Great Reset –
The European Union (EU) announced Thursday that it will be outlawing the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035 even though EU countries are already struggling to fight soaring electricity costs. EU member states and the European Commission agreed to force all new cars and vans registered in the EU to be electric by 2035.
OBSERVATION – Another blind move by the greenies without thinking it through. They are so hell-bent on imposing their green solution that they will willingly destroy their countries to implement. This may have consequences in countries struggling with power to either ignore the dictate, or leave the union.
GGR elements WANT to burn it all down so they can rule over the ashes.
Economy –
Economists widely expect another three quarters of a percentage point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November, but there’s much less agreement about what happens next.
OBSERVATION - Increasing the prime by such a large step – in conjunction with previous large increases, will serve to throw the country into a serious recession.
California is considering a proposal by state air regulators to phase out the sale of medium and heavy-duty gas-powered vehicles within the next 20 years.
If adopted, all new medium and heavy-duty vehicles sold in the Golden State will be required to be zero-emission by 2040. Additionally, the proposal outlines a phased approach to adding zero-emission vehicles to certain fleets at the state and federal levels.
Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs at the California Trucking Association, told board members that the charging infrastructure necessary to implement the proposal will require 65 to 160 megawatts, “enough capacity to power a small city.”
OBSERVATION – Another example of the foolishness of the greenies and their blindness to the impacts of their plans. Like the EU (see GGR above), electric trucks will not be capable of moving the volumes they do today – see how the touted Ford electric truck couldn’t even pull a trailer much over 90 miles on a full charge. And Kalifornia’s regulation will ripple into the other states who either have to alter their standards for all electric, or set up shipping transfer stations outside of it for diesel trucks to take over. But then common sense is totally absent in the greenies – only pushing for their green utopia single mindedly.
Invasion of Illegals -
Guatemalan Interior Minister Napoleon Barrientos warned that massive migrant caravans are heading for the US border. He said the surge of migrants is due, in part, to fears that Republicans may take back control of Congress and push for tougher measures aimed at curbing illegal migration.
Speaking with the Daily Caller, Barrientos said that Guatemalan authorities “have information that caravans will be coming in the next few weeks, particularly before the date of November 8,” adding that they are conducting operations within the country to “stop the flow migration.”
He added that illegal aliens in the caravans are basing their decisions on “information … that after [November 8], policies will be hardened.” In other words, they know Joe has open borders but the GOP does not.
OBSERVATION – With lower temperatures, movement is better – at least before winter sets in. The midterm election assessment is likely accurate, though any push by a republican congress for tougher measures will need a veto proof majority which even with a red wave is unlikely.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Justice Department released a summary of its “comprehensive” Election Day plan Wednesday and said it is aimed at ensuring that “all qualified voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots and have their votes counted free of discrimination, intimidation or fraud in the election process. “Consistent with longstanding Justice Department practices and procedures,” the Civil Rights, Criminal and National Security Divisions will spearhead the effort.
However, the wording and potential implementation of the ‘plan” has made many concerned that the DoJ will focus only on Republican-led states on Election Day in a bid to prop up chances for a Democratic victory. These concerns are reinforced by the DoJ refusing release its strategic plan for implementing President Biden’s executive order on voting access and so far, DOJ has only released a heavily redacted copy.
OBSERVATION – If DoJ targets red states to the exclusion of blue, then the perception of a dual law will be reinforced. This will easily increase anger on the right and cause potential future conflicts. Expect intense lawfare to break out if this is the case. Could result in things tied up in the courts for years.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mover here from yesterday’s CW2 –
The Paul Pelosi assault story is getting stranger and stranger with time. Yesterday, leftist were crowing that they had found their MAGA “smoking gun” because the accused perp - 42-year-old Berkeley resident David DePape – reported posted conspiracy stuff on his social media pages. Since then those voices have become increasingly silent as further information has come out.
1. The 911 call raises serious red flags –
“RP [Reporting Person] stated that there’s a male in the home and that he’s going to wait for his wife. RP stated that he doesn’t know who the male is but he advised that his name is David, and that he is a friend,” the dispatch official said. “RP sounded somewhat confused.
2. DePape lives in a Berkeley house dubbed a “hippie collective” by neighbors, with BLM, LGBT and other leftist signs/symbols adorning the walls and windows.
3. DePape is reported to be a ‘Former Castro Nudist Protester’ The reference to ‘Castro’ is to the Gay district in San Francisco.
4. Not only was he a nudist but he was a member of the Green Party.
5. Police say that when they responded to the home around 2:30 a.m., they found both struggling for a hammer wearing only their underwear.
6. How did a guy wearing only underwear get past security?
7. Pelosi has a drinking problem (see recent DUI). “somewhat confused”
8. Nancy was out of town
The following is simple speculation – but is this event the result of a ‘lovers spat’? A ‘hook up’ gone bad? The police statements and the sudden silence on the left makes one say ‘hmmmmmm’.
Clearly, the leftist narrative that DePape was some rightwinger is out the window. What is left is clearly strange and will likely be heavily covered up.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The U.S. government warns of a “heightened threat” to the upcoming midterm elections Nov. 8 due to a rise in domestic violence extremism, or DVE, that’s being driven by ideological grievances, according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by CBS News.
The joint intelligence bulletin, which was published Friday, generally references how the “potential targets of DVE violence include candidates running for public office, elected officials, election workers, political rallies, political party representatives, racial and religious minorities, or perceived ideological opponents.”
OBSERVATION – MSM sources have been quick to link this warning to the Pelosi assault (see above). A better example (and one the MSM has ignored) is that of a campaign volunteer for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who was “brutally attacked” by four people who allegedly told him Republicans weren’t allowed in their neighborhood.
China –
China continues to self-inflict economic and domestic pain to itself due to its “covid zero” policy. Most recently, Shanghai’s downtown Yangpu district, a primarily residential area that includes the campuses of Fudan and Tongji Universities, ordered mass testing for its 1.3 million residents on Friday and ordered them to remain in their homes – a chilling echo of the brutal two-month lockdown the entire city endured over the summer.
OBSERVATION – I am beginning to wonder if Xi is changing the wuhan lockdown to be more of a population submission tool than a disease prevention. Since being elected to his third term, he has wrapped himself with hard liners and any free thought (brough on by western-based prosperity, like Shanghai) must be kept in line.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
NUKE WATCH -
Putin on Thursday appeared to rule out the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In yet another U-turn over the Kremlin’s willingness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin claimed that there would be no need for Russia to deploy weapons of mass destruction.
“We see no need for that,” Putin told a conference of foreign policy experts. “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military.”
NOTE – Some are not accepting this U-turn. They believe his comments could be part of an effort by the Kremlin to spread disinformation and to set the stage for a Russian deployment of a dirty bomb that may later be blamed on Ukraine. It follows a coordinated effort by the Russian government to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb as part of a false flag attack.
We are not out of the woods yet.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- General Staff of armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 70,250
- Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Putin that 82 000 mobilized men have been already sent to Ukraine, 218000 are trained at firing ranges and that the ‘limited’ mobilization has reached its goals and has ended. Russia’s MOD says 82,000 reservists have been sent to Ukraine after completing training. Another 218,000 are in combat training.
- Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed a Ukrainian intelligence report that the Wagner Group is recruiting prisoners with HIV and Hepatitis C to fight in Ukraine
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be concentrated south and east of Bakhmut, near Kreminna and northwest of Donetsk City in the southeast of the country. It has also reportedly increased significantly south of Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast. Russian shelling was intensive around Davydiv Brid, Bakhmut, north of Donetsk City, on and around Mykolaiv and near Kharkiv the last 24hrs
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian army shelled Hay, Khrinivka and Leonivka of Chernihiv Oblast border region.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly secured much of the Svatove-Kreminna highway now isolating several Russian units (this would be the N-S running Hwy 66). Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks northwest of Donetesk that were repulsed. General artillery fire along the LOC northeast of Donetsk with sporatic attacks to the west.
Crimean front ———
Sporatic Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.
Reports that Russia may soon implement a mandatory 100% civilian evacuation of Kherson city.
HIMARS time, as several powerful explosions were reported at a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka.
There was an attack by Ukrainian UAVs/loitering munitions & UUVs targeting the military facilities of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol this morning, according to the Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Natya-class minesweeper (Project 266M) “Ivan Golubets” of the Black Sea Fleet received “minor damage” in an apparent Ukrainian attack. Unconfirmed Russian media reports that frigate Admiral Makarov Radar mast has been damaged. Another potential target – a large oil storage facility – was barely missed by at least one drone.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No big moves that can be predicted in the near term. Ukraine is continues to push east and may be close to breaking thru Russian defenses of Svatov. Ukraine action in Kherson Oblast continues to be cautious as it evaluates Russian troop reinforcements and defensive positions.
Wagner group militias will continue to attack the Bakhmut region as any success there bolsters its position in the eyes of Russian nationalist talking heads and milbloggers - providing them clout and influence with putin.
Latest info on Belarus (see below) suggests the threat of a renewed attack from the north including Belarus military is greatly reduced.
Russia’s rhetoric on nukes is all over the board still, but putin could be pulling back given the push back and potential ramifications of a strike from NATO countries – possibly a stronger response than he anticipated.
Belarus -
Exercises of the Belarusian Armed Forces are extended till at least November 7 in Belarus.
OBSERVATION – Belarus/Russian activity continues to be conducted in central and western areas of Belarus. No troop buildup near any approaches to Kyiv.
The Lukashenka regime handed over more than 65,000 tons of ammunition to Russia in 7 months. According to Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun, Minsk has sent around 1,940 railcars with ammunition to Russia since March.
OBSERVATION – The amount of armor/tanks and now ammunition transferred to Russia from Belarus indicates that the threat of an attack by the Belarus or even the Russians from there is very slim. With Belarus war stocks so depleted, and Russia unable to resupply (all its ammo/equipment going into Ukraine) any attack would be stopped quickly, if even their military went along with the order.
The EU appointed Polish General Piotr Trytek to lead its training operation for Ukraine’s military. Trytek has experience in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This underscores Poland’s critical role in training Ukrainian forces, as the EU training program’s command centers are in Poland and Germany
OBSERVATION – This makes sense, given Poland’s proximity to Ukraine and their relationship since the start of conflict.
Israel -
With the impending 5th election in 3 years, Netanyahu is favored to become PM once again. However, the potential coalition he would lead would only have a slim margin in parliament.
Iran -
Protests continue. Iran is accusing Washington of training protesters and inciting the Mahsa Amini family against it. Clashes are becoming increasingly violent.
IRGC and Basij elements have been damaging stores and businesses in various cities, probably those supporting the riots via closures.
OBSERVATION - IRGC and Basij tactics and violence is creating martyrs for the protestor’s cause and anger because of business destruction. Both are contributing to the energization of the protestors.
"1. The 911 call raises serious red flags – “RP [Reporting Person] stated that there’s a male in the home and that he’s going to wait for his wife. RP stated that he doesn’t know who the male is but he advised that his name is David, and that he is a friend,” the dispatch official said. “RP sounded somewhat confused.
2. DePape lives in a Berkeley house dubbed a “hippie collective” by neighbors, with BLM, LGBT and other leftist signs/symbols adorning the walls and windows.
3. DePape is reported to be a ‘Former Castro Nudist Protester’ The reference to ‘Castro’ is to the Gay district in San Francisco.
4. Not only was he a nudist but he was a member of the Green Party.
5. Police say that when they responded to the home around 2:30 a.m., they found both struggling for a hammer wearing only their underwear.
6. How did a guy wearing only underwear get past security?
7. Pelosi has a drinking problem (see recent DUI). “somewhat confused”
8. Nancy was out of town
The following is simple speculation – but is this event the result of a ‘lovers spat’? A ‘hook up’ gone bad? The police statements and the sudden silence on the left makes one say ‘hmmmmmm’. Clearly, the leftist narrative that DePape was some rightwinger is out the window. What is left is clearly strange and will likely be heavily covered up.
Internet provider is having hiccups and I’m off and on the internet sporatically. This is totally screwing up my research this morning, so some things may be a little more abbreviated than normal.
Wuhan virus –
With respiratory illnesses spreading among children more widely and earlier than in previous years, hospital leaders and medical experts say pediatric hospital beds across the state are in short supply.
After two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19 — medical experts say the number of children developing respiratory illnesses is already much higher this year, leading to more visits to health care centers and increasingly strained resources to treat those children.
Experts say the strain stems from overburdened hospital systems still reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a shortage of medical providers.
He said the prevalence of the flu this year is an unintended consequence of masking and isolating during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“As a community, worldwide, we didn’t develop those antibodies that are usually present in the community at some level to protect people,” he said.
OBSERVATION – Related to wuhan because it is a continuation of the negative impacts of the lockdown/masking farce. ALSO NOTE – they are trying to link “two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19” when reality is flu was commonly diagnosed as wuhan. Children have suffered a lot, not only on this subject, but in language skill development, social development, and scholastic development.
Economy –
Core inflation ticked up in September as measured by the gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, a troubling sign that price pressures are not diminishing despite the central bank’s aggressive efforts to tighten monetary policy.
Core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices, rose two-tenths of a percentage point to a 5.1% annual rate, as tracked by the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is more than forecast and higher than August’s 4.9%. Headline inflation, meanwhile, stayed steady at 6.2%, according to the data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday morning. “With core inflation accelerating instead of moderating, this suggests that solid price growth has continued unabated (at least for now),” tweeted Chad Moutray, the chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers.
OBSERVATION – Just more bad news the US and worse for biden et al going into the midterms. As noted, things continue to get worse, not better. Throw in energy and food prices continuing to increase and the picture is worse.
Bloomberg is reporting distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow.
The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Companies that binged on low-cost borrowing in recent years are facing the prospect of refinancing at exorbitant yields — if they can find any investors — as the Federal Reserve raises rates to battle persistent inflation, threatening to push the economy into recession. Some market participants see distress leading to default, and for some companies, bankruptcy.
“You’re going to see a lot more distressed companies borrowing at a much higher rate,” said Jordana Renert, a restructuring lawyer with Lowenstein Sandler. “I don’t think it’s going to be everybody falling off a cliff — I think it’s going to sort of be a slow movement, an uptick in the bankruptcy cycle.”
OBSERVATION – With the continued expected rise of Fed rates, credit costs will rise proportionately. Bankruptcy during a recessive economic period will increase above normal numbers creating more economic hardships.
In view of the current chaos in the petrochemical, and specifically the fuel industry, there are democrat voices out there starting to call for the nationalization of the industry.
At a Houston conference last week, Jason Bordoff, Dean of Columbia University’s Climate School, called for the “nationalization” of oil and gas companies. “Government must take an active role in owning assets that will become stranded,” he said, “and plan to strand those assets.” By “strand” Bordoff meant “make financially worthless.” Bordoff made the point at least twice during the conference.
OBSERVATION – Nationalization of industries is a very common tactic of socialist tyrants in order to further control the country and enforce its policies. In this case Bordoff is also a big WEF player, so nationalization would make shutting the industry down much simpler than in an open market scenario. Barring some bizarre change in the US situation – such as a megacrisis that could provide the necessary leverage and coverage – nationalization in the US would face an uphill fight.
Invasion of Illegals -
Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) on Friday blamed Republicans and former President Donald Trump for the situation at the border, saying that virtually all Trump border policies are still in place today with the exception of family separation.
OBSERVATION – Of course this is an election year and in the face of an abysmal democrat record on (not) defending the border democrat politicians have to resort to lying.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A record 56 percent of respondents said they believe there is more crime locally now that there was a year ago. Nearly four in five (78 percent) said crime increased nationwide since last year, a 33-year-high, according to Gallup, which has conducted the survey every year since 1972.
OBSERVATION – The exposure of soros-lawyers is pretty well established and their goal is to keep criminals on the street while sometimes legislatively reducing charging/sentencing standards, not to mention “defund the police”. This is deliberate and condoned by the progressive democrat left – all part of putting the people in fear to condition them to accept the govt solution – one of which being a nationalized police force.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Less than 24 hours after Elon Musk took over as Chief Twit of Twitter, a fact-check has been placed on one of Joe Biden’s @POTUS tweets because… he’s lying. Biden tweeted, “Let me give you the facts. In 202, 55 corporations made $40 billion. And they paid zero in federal taxes. My Inflation Reduction Act puts an end to this.”
Twitter took the opportunity to add context that said, “Out of the 55 corporations the tweet referenced only 14 had earnings greater than $1 billion and would be eligible under Biden’s tax law.”
OBSERVATION – Liberal heads bursting all over the twitterverse . . . . .
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Pelosi story continues to get stranger and stranger.
It has now been revealed that DePape allowed Pelosi to ‘go to the toilet’ from where he made is cell phone 911 call.
Police reports indicate at third party let them into the house, arriving at the moment the struggle for the hammer began.
At least two online blogs under DePape’s name are stocked with posts from the years of 2007 and 2022 speaking of “censorship,” “Big Brother,” and pedophiles. One contained calls for violence and antisemitic content. It was not immediately clear that he was responsible for the posts
The problem is the websites cited by the mainstream media that were supposedly aligned with DePape were created on Friday and they are no longer active today, Saturday.
The site Godisloving.wordpress.com was opened on Friday and shut down on Saturday. The other site listed, www.frenlyfrens.com/blog is no longer active as well. It too was created Friday and shut down on Saturday. The only activity on this site as well was in the last two days.
Apparently, there is police body-cam footage, so it will be clear if the person who let the cops in was neither Pelosi nor DePape. It will show also if both Pelosi & DePape were indeed in their underwear. It will also show if both were indeed holding hammers.
RUMMORS BIGLY – Allegedly, DePape has told investigators they were engaging in gay sex and the fight was over drugs. Also, the Pelosi’s are refusing to turn over surveillance videos of the night in question.
OBSERVATION – I mean, honestly, the facts surrounding this event are weird beyond even San Francisco standards. Especially the claim of the creation of two bogus website/blog sites. The left tried initially to paint DePape as a MAGA – that has blown up in their face and the ongoing silence (other than generic rage over the attack) is loud.
ONE LAST THING help me out here. Do the news reports state where Pelosi was coming from when he got his DUI??????
Nearly 250,000 ballots, state data show, were mailed to Pennsylvania voters without their identities being verified, according to the election integrity organization Verity Vote.
Citing the information provided by Verity Vote, 15 Pennsylvania state House representatives sent a letter to acting Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Leigh Chapman on Tuesday.
Citing testimony from Deputy Secretary for Elections and Commissions Jonathan Marks, the legislators pointed out that ballots are being “mailed to unverified applicants.”
OBSERVATION – Deliberate, forcing against court orders and legislation. Only when registrars and those who send these things out go to jail will this form of cheating stop. Now, every one of these ballots will be challenged to be accepted as valid for the count, just wait and see. Deliberate sabotage of the election.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
Russia suspends participation in grain deal after Ukrainian attack
The decision was made due to attacks on ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, according to the Defense Ministry. UN concerned that this will result in cutoff of grain shipments to meet global needs and demands. Ukraine states that the Russian embargo makes the export of grain “impossible”.
NUKE WATCH -
Russia warns that the nuclear threshold has been lowered as NATO accelerates deployment of modernized nuclear weapons to Europe.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- High-ranking Wagner officer killed by Ukrainian special forces in combat.
Ukrainian special forces unit “Khort” reported that it had killed the deputy chief of staff of the Russian state-backed military company Wagner.
- RIA Novosti’s Alexander Kharchenko says that Central Military District Commander Colonel General Lapin was relieved. He praises the performance of Central District units, which suggests that he disagrees with the decision (other mil bloggers will as well).
Lapin reportedly lost his position due to his devastating failure to deploy and organize mobilized men in his zone of responsibility, and there have been reports of poor treatment of untrained mobilized men on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline under Lapin’s command. However, other sources say he is stepping down due to “health reasons”.
Lapin’s removal has exposed a growing conflict between the old guard generals in the Kremlin, various milbloggers (pro and con), Wager and putin’s inner circle.
- Military economist Marcus Keupp: “Russia has realistically lost 60,000 as KIA and 120,000 as WIA, numerically seen everyone they have sent in the beginning in February.”
- The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There were no significant reported changes in fighting activity or any significant reported gains yesterday. Only exception being reduced action around Bakhmut. Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian shelling continued to be significantly intensive around Bakhmut, Kreminna and north of Kherson yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
Ukraine is currently detecting and intercepting nearly 90 percent of the Iranian-made Shahed 136 UAVs serving as suicide drones. Even with nearly 90 percent of Shahed 136s intercepted, enough get through to damage infrastructure, especially power plants. However, this also forces Russia to launch large numbers of drones in order to get enough thru defenses to hit targets.
The low-flying Shahed 136 engine is so loud it can be heard several kilometers away and, while rifle and machine-gun bullets are effective against it, larger caliber weapons like 12.7mm machine-guns and 20mm or larger autocannon are much more lethal. Another vulnerability of the Shahed 136 is that its inexpensive components are often unreliable and a large portion of them fail before reaching a target.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia has been launching limited attacks across the border northeast of the city in an apparent effort to fix Ukrainian resources from being used elsewhere.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces appear to have slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, probably due to an Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for an attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.
NOTE – HIMARS carries a warhead that unleashes titanium balls over a large radius – essentially shredding everything in that radius.
Crimean front ———
Kerson front relatively stable, but no specific details being released by either Ukraine or Russia.
Ukraine released a video from the attack on Sevastopol. It shows a naval drone targeting the Black Sea Fleet’s Admiral Makarov Project 11356 frigate, which Russian sources said was damaged (it replaced the Moskva as the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship). The extent of damage to the Makarov is still speculative.
NOTE - video appears to have been taken from a remote controlled boat. Strong likelihood this is the same type of surface drone was found near the base several months ago.
Russia has accused British specialists and claimed civilian vessels were involved in attack against Sevastopol.
Russian forces give residents near Kherson two days before forced deportation. The Operational Command “South” reported on Oct. 28 that Russian troops gave locals near Kherson two days before they will be forced to leave their homes and be taken to Russian-occupied Crimea.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Tempo of the fighting should remain about the same based on available info. Break throughs in the east along the Svatove-Kreminna line could occur with very little notice. Same for Kherson in the west.
Russian drone/missile assaults are not at the same rate – possibly indicate shortages of both.
Meanwhile there are reports of more senior changes in command as fractures continue to grow between military commanders, senior ranks and the Kremlin. This is essentially paralyzing the military in its efforts to plan defensive operations in the face of growing demand for offensive measures.
Speaking of changes in command, the essentially neutered Black Sea fleet received another black eye, and the admiral in charge should look to packing his bags. Though damage appears to be minimal, the simple fact that drone boats and drone aircraft were able to penetrate into controlled waters is a big slap in the face. This attack may serve to cause the fleet to withdraw further from threats. It has only been supporting the war effort via cruse missile launches from frigates like the Admiral Makarov. It has long ceased to be an amphibious assault force – losing key ships as well as having its marines shipped off to support ground operations.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS – The utter failure of both the Russian Air Force and Navy to contribute in a significant manner in the last six months is a key element to Russia’s current debacle on the ground. No air superiority established early on and no significant amphibious ops that could have changed the course of the war. Now Russian is losing ground attack aircraft on a daily basis trying to provide support for ground troops and Russian naval vessels working to stay out of the range of Ukrainian anti-ship systems, lobbing scarce (and becoming scarcer) cruse missiles. Combined with the utter failure of ground force operations the whole “special operation” has been a catastrophic failure for the Kremlin. The only thing they have left is the nuclear threat.
Belarus -
Russia continues deployment of troops in Belarus, Russian military activity was recorded between Brest and Malorita. This is in the southwestern corner of the nation.
OBSERVATION – Still no evidence of any invasion into Ukraine from Belarus.
Iran -
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday issued a new warning to Iranians joining in the protests that have roiled the country since last month. ‘Today is the last day of the riots,’ Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami declares, as demonstrations spread to universities across Islamic Republic.
As of this morning, regime forces have sealed off colleges and universities, preventing students from leaving the campuses. Social media accounts covering the protests reported that security forces had not only surrounded multiple campuses in Tehran and Mashhad and were firing towards and arresting students.
At least 270 people have been killed and 14,000 have been arrested in the protests that have swept over 125 Iranian cities, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran.
OBSERVATON – Expect even more violent attempts to put the protests down by the regime forces. I expect reports of massacres in the next few days. At this stage, I don’t think that even that will slow the protests. They have drawn in a wide range of supporters across the country and heavy handedness so far has only added fuel to the fire. Protestors increasingly are framing the protest as a movement to overthrow the govt.
Central / South America General-
Brazil’s heated presidential race has tightened ahead of a Sunday vote, several opinion surveys showed on Saturday, with right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro eroding a slight advantage for leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in most polls.
OBSERVATION – Leftists in Central and S America have been gaining power – much under the radar over the past few years. Brazil is key as it is an economic powerhouse in the region. Even if Bolsonaro is re-elected, he faces stiff resistance from the left.