Internet provider is having hiccups and I’m off and on the internet sporatically. This is totally screwing up my research this morning, so some things may be a little more abbreviated than normal.
Wuhan virus –
With respiratory illnesses spreading among children more widely and earlier than in previous years, hospital leaders and medical experts say pediatric hospital beds across the state are in short supply.
After two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19 — medical experts say the number of children developing respiratory illnesses is already much higher this year, leading to more visits to health care centers and increasingly strained resources to treat those children.
Experts say the strain stems from overburdened hospital systems still reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a shortage of medical providers.
He said the prevalence of the flu this year is an unintended consequence of masking and isolating during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“As a community, worldwide, we didn’t develop those antibodies that are usually present in the community at some level to protect people,” he said.
OBSERVATION – Related to wuhan because it is a continuation of the negative impacts of the lockdown/masking farce. ALSO NOTE – they are trying to link “two years of mild flu seasons — a result of mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19” when reality is flu was commonly diagnosed as wuhan. Children have suffered a lot, not only on this subject, but in language skill development, social development, and scholastic development.
Economy –
Core inflation ticked up in September as measured by the gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, a troubling sign that price pressures are not diminishing despite the central bank’s aggressive efforts to tighten monetary policy.
Core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices, rose two-tenths of a percentage point to a 5.1% annual rate, as tracked by the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is more than forecast and higher than August’s 4.9%. Headline inflation, meanwhile, stayed steady at 6.2%, according to the data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday morning. “With core inflation accelerating instead of moderating, this suggests that solid price growth has continued unabated (at least for now),” tweeted Chad Moutray, the chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers.
OBSERVATION – Just more bad news the US and worse for biden et al going into the midterms. As noted, things continue to get worse, not better. Throw in energy and food prices continuing to increase and the picture is worse.
Bloomberg is reporting distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow.
The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Companies that binged on low-cost borrowing in recent years are facing the prospect of refinancing at exorbitant yields — if they can find any investors — as the Federal Reserve raises rates to battle persistent inflation, threatening to push the economy into recession. Some market participants see distress leading to default, and for some companies, bankruptcy.
“You’re going to see a lot more distressed companies borrowing at a much higher rate,” said Jordana Renert, a restructuring lawyer with Lowenstein Sandler. “I don’t think it’s going to be everybody falling off a cliff — I think it’s going to sort of be a slow movement, an uptick in the bankruptcy cycle.”
OBSERVATION – With the continued expected rise of Fed rates, credit costs will rise proportionately. Bankruptcy during a recessive economic period will increase above normal numbers creating more economic hardships.
In view of the current chaos in the petrochemical, and specifically the fuel industry, there are democrat voices out there starting to call for the nationalization of the industry.
At a Houston conference last week, Jason Bordoff, Dean of Columbia University’s Climate School, called for the “nationalization” of oil and gas companies. “Government must take an active role in owning assets that will become stranded,” he said, “and plan to strand those assets.” By “strand” Bordoff meant “make financially worthless.” Bordoff made the point at least twice during the conference.
OBSERVATION – Nationalization of industries is a very common tactic of socialist tyrants in order to further control the country and enforce its policies. In this case Bordoff is also a big WEF player, so nationalization would make shutting the industry down much simpler than in an open market scenario. Barring some bizarre change in the US situation – such as a megacrisis that could provide the necessary leverage and coverage – nationalization in the US would face an uphill fight.
Invasion of Illegals -
Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) on Friday blamed Republicans and former President Donald Trump for the situation at the border, saying that virtually all Trump border policies are still in place today with the exception of family separation.
OBSERVATION – Of course this is an election year and in the face of an abysmal democrat record on (not) defending the border democrat politicians have to resort to lying.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A record 56 percent of respondents said they believe there is more crime locally now that there was a year ago. Nearly four in five (78 percent) said crime increased nationwide since last year, a 33-year-high, according to Gallup, which has conducted the survey every year since 1972.
OBSERVATION – The exposure of soros-lawyers is pretty well established and their goal is to keep criminals on the street while sometimes legislatively reducing charging/sentencing standards, not to mention “defund the police”. This is deliberate and condoned by the progressive democrat left – all part of putting the people in fear to condition them to accept the govt solution – one of which being a nationalized police force.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Less than 24 hours after Elon Musk took over as Chief Twit of Twitter, a fact-check has been placed on one of Joe Biden’s @POTUS tweets because… he’s lying. Biden tweeted, “Let me give you the facts. In 202, 55 corporations made $40 billion. And they paid zero in federal taxes. My Inflation Reduction Act puts an end to this.”
Twitter took the opportunity to add context that said, “Out of the 55 corporations the tweet referenced only 14 had earnings greater than $1 billion and would be eligible under Biden’s tax law.”
OBSERVATION – Liberal heads bursting all over the twitterverse . . . . .
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Pelosi story continues to get stranger and stranger.
It has now been revealed that DePape allowed Pelosi to ‘go to the toilet’ from where he made is cell phone 911 call.
Police reports indicate at third party let them into the house, arriving at the moment the struggle for the hammer began.
At least two online blogs under DePape’s name are stocked with posts from the years of 2007 and 2022 speaking of “censorship,” “Big Brother,” and pedophiles. One contained calls for violence and antisemitic content. It was not immediately clear that he was responsible for the posts
The problem is the websites cited by the mainstream media that were supposedly aligned with DePape were created on Friday and they are no longer active today, Saturday.
The site Godisloving.wordpress.com was opened on Friday and shut down on Saturday. The other site listed, www.frenlyfrens.com/blog is no longer active as well. It too was created Friday and shut down on Saturday. The only activity on this site as well was in the last two days.
Apparently, there is police body-cam footage, so it will be clear if the person who let the cops in was neither Pelosi nor DePape. It will show also if both Pelosi & DePape were indeed in their underwear. It will also show if both were indeed holding hammers.
RUMMORS BIGLY – Allegedly, DePape has told investigators they were engaging in gay sex and the fight was over drugs. Also, the Pelosi’s are refusing to turn over surveillance videos of the night in question.
OBSERVATION – I mean, honestly, the facts surrounding this event are weird beyond even San Francisco standards. Especially the claim of the creation of two bogus website/blog sites. The left tried initially to paint DePape as a MAGA – that has blown up in their face and the ongoing silence (other than generic rage over the attack) is loud.
ONE LAST THING help me out here. Do the news reports state where Pelosi was coming from when he got his DUI??????
Nearly 250,000 ballots, state data show, were mailed to Pennsylvania voters without their identities being verified, according to the election integrity organization Verity Vote.
Citing the information provided by Verity Vote, 15 Pennsylvania state House representatives sent a letter to acting Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Leigh Chapman on Tuesday.
Citing testimony from Deputy Secretary for Elections and Commissions Jonathan Marks, the legislators pointed out that ballots are being “mailed to unverified applicants.”
OBSERVATION – Deliberate, forcing against court orders and legislation. Only when registrars and those who send these things out go to jail will this form of cheating stop. Now, every one of these ballots will be challenged to be accepted as valid for the count, just wait and see. Deliberate sabotage of the election.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
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Russia suspends participation in grain deal after Ukrainian attack
The decision was made due to attacks on ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, according to the Defense Ministry. UN concerned that this will result in cutoff of grain shipments to meet global needs and demands. Ukraine states that the Russian embargo makes the export of grain “impossible”.
NUKE WATCH -
Russia warns that the nuclear threshold has been lowered as NATO accelerates deployment of modernized nuclear weapons to Europe.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- High-ranking Wagner officer killed by Ukrainian special forces in combat.
Ukrainian special forces unit “Khort” reported that it had killed the deputy chief of staff of the Russian state-backed military company Wagner.
- RIA Novosti’s Alexander Kharchenko says that Central Military District Commander Colonel General Lapin was relieved. He praises the performance of Central District units, which suggests that he disagrees with the decision (other mil bloggers will as well).
Lapin reportedly lost his position due to his devastating failure to deploy and organize mobilized men in his zone of responsibility, and there have been reports of poor treatment of untrained mobilized men on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline under Lapin’s command. However, other sources say he is stepping down due to “health reasons”.
Lapin’s removal has exposed a growing conflict between the old guard generals in the Kremlin, various milbloggers (pro and con), Wager and putin’s inner circle.
- Military economist Marcus Keupp: “Russia has realistically lost 60,000 as KIA and 120,000 as WIA, numerically seen everyone they have sent in the beginning in February.”
- The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There were no significant reported changes in fighting activity or any significant reported gains yesterday. Only exception being reduced action around Bakhmut. Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian shelling continued to be significantly intensive around Bakhmut, Kreminna and north of Kherson yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
Ukraine is currently detecting and intercepting nearly 90 percent of the Iranian-made Shahed 136 UAVs serving as suicide drones. Even with nearly 90 percent of Shahed 136s intercepted, enough get through to damage infrastructure, especially power plants. However, this also forces Russia to launch large numbers of drones in order to get enough thru defenses to hit targets.
The low-flying Shahed 136 engine is so loud it can be heard several kilometers away and, while rifle and machine-gun bullets are effective against it, larger caliber weapons like 12.7mm machine-guns and 20mm or larger autocannon are much more lethal. Another vulnerability of the Shahed 136 is that its inexpensive components are often unreliable and a large portion of them fail before reaching a target.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia has been launching limited attacks across the border northeast of the city in an apparent effort to fix Ukrainian resources from being used elsewhere.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces appear to have slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, probably due to an Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for an attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.
NOTE – HIMARS carries a warhead that unleashes titanium balls over a large radius – essentially shredding everything in that radius.
Crimean front ———
Kerson front relatively stable, but no specific details being released by either Ukraine or Russia.
Ukraine released a video from the attack on Sevastopol. It shows a naval drone targeting the Black Sea Fleet’s Admiral Makarov Project 11356 frigate, which Russian sources said was damaged (it replaced the Moskva as the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship). The extent of damage to the Makarov is still speculative.
NOTE - video appears to have been taken from a remote controlled boat. Strong likelihood this is the same type of surface drone was found near the base several months ago.
Russia has accused British specialists and claimed civilian vessels were involved in attack against Sevastopol.
Russian forces give residents near Kherson two days before forced deportation. The Operational Command “South” reported on Oct. 28 that Russian troops gave locals near Kherson two days before they will be forced to leave their homes and be taken to Russian-occupied Crimea.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Tempo of the fighting should remain about the same based on available info. Break throughs in the east along the Svatove-Kreminna line could occur with very little notice. Same for Kherson in the west.
Russian drone/missile assaults are not at the same rate – possibly indicate shortages of both.
Meanwhile there are reports of more senior changes in command as fractures continue to grow between military commanders, senior ranks and the Kremlin. This is essentially paralyzing the military in its efforts to plan defensive operations in the face of growing demand for offensive measures.
Speaking of changes in command, the essentially neutered Black Sea fleet received another black eye, and the admiral in charge should look to packing his bags. Though damage appears to be minimal, the simple fact that drone boats and drone aircraft were able to penetrate into controlled waters is a big slap in the face. This attack may serve to cause the fleet to withdraw further from threats. It has only been supporting the war effort via cruse missile launches from frigates like the Admiral Makarov. It has long ceased to be an amphibious assault force – losing key ships as well as having its marines shipped off to support ground operations.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS – The utter failure of both the Russian Air Force and Navy to contribute in a significant manner in the last six months is a key element to Russia’s current debacle on the ground. No air superiority established early on and no significant amphibious ops that could have changed the course of the war. Now Russian is losing ground attack aircraft on a daily basis trying to provide support for ground troops and Russian naval vessels working to stay out of the range of Ukrainian anti-ship systems, lobbing scarce (and becoming scarcer) cruse missiles. Combined with the utter failure of ground force operations the whole “special operation” has been a catastrophic failure for the Kremlin. The only thing they have left is the nuclear threat.
Belarus -
Russia continues deployment of troops in Belarus, Russian military activity was recorded between Brest and Malorita. This is in the southwestern corner of the nation.
OBSERVATION – Still no evidence of any invasion into Ukraine from Belarus.
Iran -
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday issued a new warning to Iranians joining in the protests that have roiled the country since last month. ‘Today is the last day of the riots,’ Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami declares, as demonstrations spread to universities across Islamic Republic.
As of this morning, regime forces have sealed off colleges and universities, preventing students from leaving the campuses. Social media accounts covering the protests reported that security forces had not only surrounded multiple campuses in Tehran and Mashhad and were firing towards and arresting students.
At least 270 people have been killed and 14,000 have been arrested in the protests that have swept over 125 Iranian cities, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran.
OBSERVATON – Expect even more violent attempts to put the protests down by the regime forces. I expect reports of massacres in the next few days. At this stage, I don’t think that even that will slow the protests. They have drawn in a wide range of supporters across the country and heavy handedness so far has only added fuel to the fire. Protestors increasingly are framing the protest as a movement to overthrow the govt.
Central / South America General-
Brazil’s heated presidential race has tightened ahead of a Sunday vote, several opinion surveys showed on Saturday, with right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro eroding a slight advantage for leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in most polls.
OBSERVATION – Leftists in Central and S America have been gaining power – much under the radar over the past few years. Brazil is key as it is an economic powerhouse in the region. Even if Bolsonaro is re-elected, he faces stiff resistance from the left.
Internet provider is having hiccups and I’m off and on the internet sporatically.
This is totally screwing up my research this morning, so some things may be a
little more abbreviated than normal.
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And the beat goes on regardless of the hiccups.
Play it loud.
OBSERVATION – The exposure of soros-lawyers is pretty well established and their goal is to keep criminals on the street
Just out of curiosity Godzilla, what's your take on the Pelosi break-in? Rough gay sex gone bad or middle class, middle aged Republican MAGA Christian out at 2:30 in the morning... maybe same MAGA that wanders around Chicago's SouthSide with a bottle of bleach and a noose?
Globalism / Great Reset –
MOVED HERE DUE TO GGR IMPLICATIONS
In a bitterly-fought election, former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva appears to have defeated incumbent conservative President Jair Bolsonaro 50.9% to Bolsonaro’s 49.1%. As of this morning, Bolsonaro has not conceded the election.
In 2017 Lula da Silva was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison last year after being accused of receiving more than $1m in bribes from construction giant OAS.
An appeals court in January upheld corruption and money-laundering convictions against the 72-year-old. His sentence was extended to 12 years
The President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is listed as a contributing author to the WEF. Potential policies under his administration are -
⁃ In his first days of government, Lula will seek to convene an international climate conference in Brazil with other global leaders, in order to regain trust in the face of global public and political opinion, and to present his new plans for the protection of the Amazon rainforest. “Let’s fight for zero deforestation,” Lula says in first speech as president-elect. “Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, especially the Amazon Forest.”
⁃ On October 29, 2022, in an article written for the French newspaper Le Monde, Lula said that Brazil will return to its leading role in the international stage, especially in the fields of the environment and renewable energies
⁃ On September 10, 2022, Lula promised the return of the Growth Acceleration Program, better known as PAC, and the Minha Casa Minha Vida program, to accelerate economic growth and creation of jobs through public investment.
OBSERVATION – Another nation succumbs to GGR affiliated leadership. GGR/WEF is putting its pieces into place to facilitate an eventual attempt to control the world.
Wuhan virus –
A Swiss study found elevated levels of the protein troponin in all of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients it analyzed, indicating the shots are routinely causing heart injury.
Further, up to 1 in 27 of the vaccinated people in the study showed levels associated with subclinical myocarditis,
Link here (in French) - https://www.cardio-online.fr/Actualites/A-la-une/ESC-2022/Incidence-non-negligeable-myocardites-apres-3-dose-vaccin-ARN-messager-anti-COVID-19
OBSERVATION – I noted something similar a few weeks back. Systemic damage to other organs along with the heart are becoming increasingly documented – and the culprits of this plandemic will skate away scott free.
Economy –
ENERGY WATCH – A growing important subcategory of Economy. Diesel can almost be considered the life blood of the nation’s economy. It drives the farm equipment, trucks, and trains that keep this nation fed and supplied with the necessities of life. We are looking at an unprecedented shortage of diesel reserves this winter (and possibly beyond) and we need to pay attention to what the movers and shakers of the industry are saying and forecasting.
Tom Kloza, dean of U.S. oil analysts at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), told Newsweek. “The issue is global,” said Kloza, adding that diesel inventories around the world are the lowest as they’ve been since 1982, “and we’ve added about 3.4 billion people in that time.”
The weekly data shows that the United States, as of Oct. 21, has 25.9 days of supply—down from 34.2 days of supply five weeks prior.
The diesel market will stay tight into the winter, Chevron Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth warned. “Markets are tight right now. Diesel, in particular, as we’ve seen here recently and likely to stay that way through the winter, I think,” he said during the third quarter earnings call.
Eversource Energy CEO Joe Nolan asked the Biden administration to take emergency measures to prevent a potential natural gas shortage.
The national average price of gasoline has risen to $3.76 driven by prices on the East Coast, which has experienced supply shortages. Inventories on the East Coast have been depleted to historic lows, while imports from Europe and India have slowed due to shortages and refinery maintenance.
Representative Ro Khanna of California has introduced a bill that would bar the export of gasoline during periods when domestic prices are high. The bill does not include an export ban on diesel. Khanna hopes the bill will spur the Biden administration to action.
OVERALL ENERGY OBSERVATION – The implosion of America’s energy independence under biden is unprecedented (I’m beginning to hate that word). Biden pays lip service to Americans on energy, but holds to his stated goals of eliminating the fossil fuel industry in favor of GGR endorsed ‘green energy’.
At the end of October, here’s where America stands — on Biden’s watch — heading into winter:
1. Nationwide and regional diesel fuel shortages threaten every industry
2. Home heating oil shortages and rationing in the Northeast
3. Gas prices continue to climb
4. Inflation remains at record highs with no sign of stopping
5. Home sales hit record lows, priming a new housing crisis
6. Record-high crime could exponentially worsen as Americans fight over available supplies of fuel, food, etc.
7. Possible railroad strike, which would also cripple the U.S. economy overnight
More than six of every 10 acres in the continental United States is in drought, with arid conditions stretching from the Appalachians to the Pacific Coast, said the weekly Drought Monitor on Thursday. Conditions worsened in the Ohio Valley, as warm weather combined with below-normal precipitation to dry the Midwest.
“The extent of dry conditions is on par with 2012, as drought expanded this week across more than half of the U.S. states, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast,” said the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska on social media. The Drought Center produces the Drought Monitor in partnership with the USDA and NOAA.
A week ago, NOAA forecasters said the United States would go through its third La Niña winter in a row, suggesting little relief for winter wheat or low water on the Mississippi. “Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the western United States and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions also may expand to the Gulf Coast.”
OBSERVATION – One thing is certain – food costs will be anchored at their record highs and globally food will be an increasing concern.
IF the US gets a bad ‘bump’ (black swan event) we could face serious shortages here.
CW2/Domestic violence –
It has been interesting to watch the militant Transgender movement using violence to suppress once liberal favored feminists and even LGB views because they don’t accept the radical trans agenda. Antifa et al has attached itself to the trans movement over these others (that is has also supported at times).
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter’s Board and Law firm may be in very big trouble. Elon Musk tweeted that the Twitter Board and the law firm that worked for Twitter, Wachtell, may have withheld information from him and the court.
This is big news for Twitter and its law firm if it is true. Not only might the Twitter Board and Attorney be in trouble for lying with the court, but the these entities would be in trouble with the SEC as well for filing false statements as we reported earlier as well.
OBSERVATION - The so called smart people at Twitter before Musk forgot apparently to cover all their tracks.
Need more popcorn.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Pelosi story continues to get stranger and stranger.
Nancy Pelosi’s fundraising appeal on the back of the attack on her husband. Well, that’s not strange, but it is typical.
CNN continues to try to push the MAGA card by ‘reporting’ that DePape had (try to hold the shock) ‘zip ties’ with him and BTW so did J6 insurrectionists. CNN and desperate libs try to make the linkage.
It is unbelievable watching the twitterverse libs grasping at straws to avoid what is pretty clear otherwise – this was a lover’s quarrel.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The U.S Air Force is reportedly preparing to deploy up to 6 Nuclear-Capable B-52 Strategic Bombers to RAAF Tindal in Northern Australia.
OBSERVATION – US already has 4 B-1 bombers stationed on Guam. This puts a significant piece of USAF fire power in the east Pacific region.
China –
Xi is tightening his control of the Chinese govt through appointing close allies to key positions. In a move that appears to reflect a larger role for China’s intelligence apparatus in Xi’s third term as President, Chen Yixin was appointed Minister of State Security. Chen, who was elected to the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee during the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress earlier this month, was the chief of the CCP’s anti-corruption unit and a close ally of Xi.
Chen Wenqing, the outgoing Minister of State Security, was promoted to Party Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, responsible for overseeing police, legal affairs, and intelligence.
OBSERVATION – Emphasis on intelligence and security suggest hardened changes to China’s western embrace of economic measures as well as pushing forward a more aggressive foreign policy.
North/South Korea -
South Korea and the U.S today started the planned military exercise Vigilant Storm. A significant number of aircraft have commenced exercises that will continue all week.
OBSERVATION- NK likely to launch more missiles in protest.
Japan –
There are reports coming out that Japan is finalizing negotiations to purchase American Tomahawk cruise missiles. The move comes as part of a continuing effort by Japan to build armaments and a strategic deterrence capability amid threats from China and Russia.
Tomahawk cruise missiles have a range of 1,000 km, providing Japan with a strike capability against targets in China and Russia’s far east that could be expanded if the purchase includes ship-borne naval variants of the missile.
OBSERVATION – Japan is essentially buying ‘off the shelf’ systems probably as an interim measure as it develops and produces its own.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
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Russia’s missile attacks overnight seemed to lack the use of the Iranian made drones. Likely a response to Ukraine’s drone boat attack in Crimea.
Logistics –
- Reports that new conscripts are being issued older AKS rifles, chambered in 7.62 versus the current standard Russian 5.45mm AK-12. This creates a logistic challenge in providing adequate ammo in a chaotic battle field where there is a mix in rifles and type ammo required.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period. Although wet, temperatures have been relatively mild, mitigating the mud, but that is apparently coming to an end.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia opened up a new case of missiles and launched a bunch of them across Ukraine overnight. Some targets included 3 Hydropower plants in Ukraine: Dniprovska in Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchutska in Svitlovodsk and Dnistrovska as well as public water supply systems. Power outages due to hits near Kyiv and a strike on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Plant in Zaporizhzhia. At least 2 missiles hit critical infrastructure object in Kharkiv. Explosions and missile sightings in the Kyiv and Odesa region. Impacts reported Kyiv and other regions. Ukrainian forces are claiming they intercepted more than 40 missiles, giving some indication as to the size of this morning’s strikes.
Fighting continued to be fierce east of Bakhmut yesterday where more localized Russian offensives were repelled. Russian forces also moved on Pavlivka, southwest of Donetsk City with fierce fighting on its southern fringes.
Russian shelling was far more intensive north and south of Donetsk City yesterday and continues to be intensive near Bakhmut, but was mostly sporadic in the other impacted regions.
ENHANCED WATCH - Ukraine, Turkey and the UN agreed to have vessels carrying food from Ukrainian ports sail tomorrow, pushing back against Russia (Bloomberg). It is reported this morning that about 14 civilian freighters are moving transporting wheat.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR
Donetsk Oblast ——
Activity seems to have slowed somewhat, likely due to weather.
Crimean front ———
Reports that Russia is redeploying artillery units out of the west side of the Dnipir River to probable locations on the east side. Unconfirmed reports that recently mobilized conscripts are being sent to the front lines in Kherson Oblast while the more experienced and better equipped Russian forces are being pulled back to prepare a defense of Kherson.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile strikes in numerous areas
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Winter weather and mud is now starting to be a strategic consideration and will make Russian offensives with armor significantly more difficult. Maneuvers will likely decrease as the ground deteriorates further and armored units are forced to use roads at risk of mines and ambushes.
Analysts suggests that once winter hits, and the ground freezes, conditions will once again favor Ukraine due to its knowledge of the terrain, conditions and better logistical tail, whereas Russia will be in the same pickle it found itself in with the first phase of its war – poorly equipped troops and screwed up logistics.
BTW – there are some out there continuing to thump about a massive Russian second invasion based upon the mobilization. What they fail to factor in is the lack of arms, munitions, support vehicles, artillery and armor/tanks the Russian army currently finds itself in.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova condemns in strongest possible terms Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine. The appalling strikes on critical infrastructure reverberate beyond Ukraine’s borders and pose a direct threat to Moldova’s energy – and human – security.
A Russian missile which was shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces, has fallen in Moldovan village of Naslavcha
Israel -
Israeli parliamentary elections are scheduled for this Tuesday. IDF is on high alert for any terror attempts to disrupt them.
Currently, Netanyahu is projected to recapture the PM position by a slim margin.
Iran -
Two days after the commander-in-chief of Iran’s IRGC said it was the last day of “riots,” students at Amirkabir University of Technology are protesting today. Protestors are becoming increasingly emboldened in the face of lethal methods being used by the regime. Not only has the protests morphed into a revolution , but comparisons are being made to the protests that eventually brought the Shah down.