Check your winter preps NOW and update what you need, then get it. Don’t wait.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Yuval Noah Harari is one of Klaus Schwab’s top advisors at the WEF in a recent interview said -
“we will have a small elite that’ll makes all the decisions even if it doesn’t benefit the majority of the population … leaving the rest to drown”
OBSERVATION - The evil thoughts and plans that come out of this guy’s mouth are almost antichrist-like.
Almost as quickly as UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted from office, so too was her (now-temporary) order to resume gas shale fracking - a plan which included offering UK households £1,000 each for allowing the practice in their neighborhoods.
According to the Financial Times, her successor - the WEF-sponsored (of “great reset, eat bugs, own nothing and be happy” fame) Rishi Sunak is reversing Truss’s order, and reinstating the fracking ban.
During his first prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the new UK prime minister told MPs that he “stands by” the Conservative party’s 2019 manifesto commitment that halted fracking. The moratorium was briefly lifted by Truss during her brief period as prime minister. -FT
The news brings clarity to Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Tuesday resignation. Rees-Mogg, a fracking advocate, was placed in charge of the UK’s energy strategy by Truss. He notably warned against ‘climate alarmism’ and said that he wants cheap energy for his constituents “rather more than I would like them to have windmills.”
OBSERVATION – Watch as Sunak pushes more GGR/WEF agenda under the guise of saving the British economy and saving the world. These reversals are just another sign of the power play that GGR players in the British govt were involved behind the curtains in the removal of Truss.
Wuhan virus –
Just in time for the holidays. A new COVID subvariant nicknamed by some as the ‘nightmare variant’ is on the radar of doctors across Massachusetts.
The strain is so new that it isn’t showing up yet on the CDC’s variant tracker. Dr. Shira Doron, epidemiologist with Tufts Medical Center, told Boston 25 News that there are reports that it has been detected in New York.
XBB, a descendent of Omicron, has been ripping through Southeast Asia in recent weeks. It’s caused cases to double in a day in several countries.
What’s concerning about XBB is that studies have shown it might be immune to current vaccines.
OBSERVATION – All variants are immune to the jab – as it has been admitted by Pfizer/Moderna and CDC et al. Just another scare.
Less than two months after the FDA used mouse data to give emergency use authorization to bivalent COVID-19 boosters, the real-world performance of the shots that target the ancestral strain and Omicron BA.4/5 subvariants is undermining the feds’ one-size-fits-all messaging.
New preprint studies by researchers at Columbia University and Beth Israel Deaconness Medical Center, not yet peer-reviewed, found that the bivalents showed no meaningful improvement over the original monovalent boosters that targeted the Wuhan strain alone.
University of California San Francisco epidemiologist Vinay Prasad wrote in his newsletter remarked -
“Their entire vaccine policy seems to be interested in giving Pfizer and Moderna a perpetual market share for a yearly vaccine,” he said. “But seems to have no interest in generating credible randomized control trial evidence to inform the public.”
OBSERVATION – Prasad is correct – follow the money and ignore the lack of supporting documentation.
White House COVID Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said Tuesday that COVID “continues to be a substantial challenge,” killing several hundred Americans a day, and is “probably the third leading cause of death among Americans and probably the number one cause of preventable deaths among Americans.”
OBSERVATION – Continuing the lie. The jab does not prevent infection or death from wuhan, on the contrary, the jab has become a more serious threat to health than the bug.
Economy –
BREAKING - A report from the Commerce Department released on Thursday shows the nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, August and September. That’s in contrast to the first six months of the year, when GDP figures showed the economy shrinking.
The apparent improvement, however, is largely the result of fluctuations in things like international trade, which don’t reflect the underlying health of the economy. They made GDP look artificially weak in the first half of the year, while pumping up the most recent figure.
“If you take a step back and look at GDP, it’s gone effectively nowhere over the last year,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “One quarter or two it’s down a bit. This quarter it’s up a bit. But net-net, we’re kind of treading water.”
OBSERVATION – The left will try to spin this up as a victory. The fed is still on track for another 75 basis point increase in the prime. Zandi echos some of what I’ve seen other analysts hit on - - “don’t reflect the underlying health of the economy”. Closures of smelters, steel plants, implosion of the housing market etc. are still bearing down on the GDP. Watch for the later revision – some time after the midterms. Further, this spike in the GDP may just encourage the Fed to continue its aggressive anti-inflationary policies by assuming the economy can take it. SEE BELOW.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a recent note that the Federal Reserve’s fight to crush inflation could send the unemployment rate as high as 6 percent by the end of 2023, equivalent to around 4 million Americans losing their jobs.
With all the tightening under way, Fed policymakers expect that the economy will slow and unemployment will push higher from the current 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent in 2023 and 2024.
But a recent analytical note from Deutsche Bank says the Fed is low-balling its estimate on how many Americans will have to lose their jobs as the central bank corrects its course.
“Our updated analysis continues to point to the need for a sharper rise in unemployment than embedded in the Fed’s latest projections for September,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
Markets are now pricing in another big 75 basis-point rate hike in November and a terminal rate of 4.89 percent.
OBSERVATION – There was a major concern at the start of the Fed increases that it would overshoot and thus crash the economy versus the ‘soft landing’ narrative. Looks like this is coming true.
Diesel shortages in the NE are now prevalent throughout the East Coast as inventories there are at their lowest level ever heading into the winter. Energy suppliers are counting on the Colonial pipeline, the main supply of diesel for the Southeast, to replenish supplies. However, the first shipment will not reach Atlanta until Nov. 3, and New York a week after that.
“Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility. Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72-hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels,” Mansfield Energy wrote in an update to customers on Tuesday. The trucking firm has a fleet of tankers that delivers refined fuel products to more than 8,000 customers nationwide.
IN RELATED - East Coast is deepening as terminals already low on diesel are now low on gasoline. Distributor TAC Energy stated that numerous terminals over the past 72 hours have run out of gasoline and ethanol. Gasoline stockpiles on the East Coast have hit their lowest level since 2007.
OBSERVATION – The biden fuel crisis continues to get worse. There is nothing in the short term that suggests that there is any real relief coming soon. This will just serve for him to try to justify further pulls from the strategic reserve.
Abdulaziz bin Salman said that “people” were using emergency oil reserves to manipulate markets rather than their intended purpose of mitigating shortages of supply. The Saudi energy minister also warned that decisions by some to use emergency oil stocks “may become painful in the months to come.”
Brent crude oil was trading at $95-$96 a barrel on Wednesday – up from around $94 on October 6, the day after the OPEC+ decision was announced. In the intervening fortnight it has fluctuated within the $90-$98 range.
OBSERVATION – As I’ve said before, I’m convinced this is a deliberate sabotage of America’s oil reserve – so that when the next big shock wave hits the country we will be essentially helpless. Perhaps Salman speaks a truthful word of warning, foreknowing something coming down the road.
The specter of a national rail road strike has become a greater possibility. The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen voted against September’s tentative agreement, according to results announced Wednesday. Five more unions are scheduled to vote on the deal in mid-November.
OBSERVATION - This has raised the odds that America’s freight railroad workers will go on strike sometime next month or early December. With barge and truck traffic already handicapped, a strike could cripple the supply / distribution system beyond the problems we’ve already seen.
Nearly one in five Americans have skipped meals or did not buy groceries due to surging inflation, including 28 percent of Gen Z and 23 percent of millennials, according to a recent survey.
Seventeen percent of respondents said they were receiving food items from a food bank, including 22 percent of millennials, while 17 said they have stopped buying healthier food options. Eighteen percent said they had skipped meals or did not buy groceries.
Beyond facing food insecurity, the same survey also found that high inflation is forcing Americans to delay certain healthcare expenses. Fourteen percent of Americans have canceled or postponed plans to see a healthcare specialist, ten percent have delayed taking prescribed medication, and 11 percent stalled receiving a yearly physical.
OBSERVATION – There is a parallel trend of increased demand on food banks. Retired and on a fixed income, this hasn’t affected me, though it is still a concern needing to be watched. However, millennials and Gen Z have a lot of unnecessary expenses on wasteful items that could be trimmed back to free up money for food and medical care. Just an observation from my millennial children and their budgeting priorities.
CW2/Domestic violence –
“The leak made those of us who were thought to be in the majority in support of overruling Roe and Casey targets for assassination because it gave people a rationale reason to think they could prevent that from happening by killing one of us.” - Justice Alito on the Dobbs leak
OBSERVATION - And yet months later, there has been no identification of, or reckoning for, the person(s) who leaked the draft opinion. Political assassinations would be a major escalation in the CW2 matrix. So far it has been words of violence with some liberals attempting to act out the rhetoric of violence spewed out by democrats.
Assassination of a USSC justice in the present situation would be very dangerous indeed to our country.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., off the top rope - -
“John Fetterman is the only American politician who makes Joe Biden sound like Winston Churchill,”
OUCH, that will leave a mark.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The United States has expedited the fielding of the upgraded B61-12 air-dropped gravity bomb to NATO bases in Europe. The original target date was Spring 2023, but is now planned for this December per sources to Politico.
OBSERVATION – I’d be cautious since this is from Politico. Regardless, this would be a common sense measure against the rising threats from putin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and south. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin, has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
During the night, a Molotov Cocktail was thrown into the central building of United Russia (the political party of Vladimir Putin) on Kutuzovsky Prospekt.
“State-run news agency Interfax cited the press service of Russia’s Federal Security Service as saying a three-day exercise began on Tuesday and will involve the suppression of “threats of a terrorist nature” against officials, deputies and senators.”
Military vehicles brought to downtown Moscow for Putin’s Federal Protective Service (FSO) training exercises. The federal protective service announced these exercises two days ago.
NOTE - Might be anti-coup exercises. FSO is considered highly loyal to Putin. They are in charge of protecting Putin and other high level mafia officials in Russia. This exercise was announced two weeks ago.
NUKE WATCH -
Putin at the meeting with heads of security services of CIS countries reiterated Russian propaganda narratives about Ukraine on biological, nuclear weapons, including on “dirty bomb”. The simple fact that putin personally is pushing the dirty bomb ruse is enough to give second thought to the likelihood of such a false flag.
Russia’s defense minister spoke with his Indian and Chinese counterparts on the “possible use of a dirty bomb by Ukraine”.
NOTE - Russia continued push of this is becoming extremely concerning.
UNCONFIRMED reports that in Moscow, authorities are inspecting the bomb shelters in the city’s schools. The officials involved have been directed to get the shelters in working order. Notifications have gone out in Moscow to inform residents that bomb shelters are being prepared in hospitals, converting underground garages and other site. Similar actions are being taken in other major Russian cities. Emergency warning systems are being tested. Lists of locations suitable to be converted into additional shelters are being compiled.
NOTE – This may be linked to the current Russian strategic nuclear exercise, a commonsense exercise addition to review such preparations. However, the emphasis and urgency raises some concerns.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting continues around Kreminna and Bakhmut, but there are no reports of any real Russian progress.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations west of Svatove.
Drones/missile strikes hit various areas of Ukraine.
Kyiv front ——
Over 6 attacks with Shahed drones in Kyiv region overnight, some were shot down by air defense
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ongoing push towards Svatove continues in a methodological manner. Russian artillery fire noted along the LOC.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Same old, same old. Russia launched multiple ground attacks in the vicinity of Bakhmut and Donetsk with the same results – being driven back.
Crimean front ———
Situation relatively static in N Kherson Oblast. Ukraine reportedly continuing to strike Russian logistical, command and troop concentrations.
Crimea power plant targeted by overnight Ukranian drone attack according to occupation authorities in Crimea. No blackout, casualties or significant damage reported.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight and were again mostly drone attacks. Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia! south of Kyiv, the Vinnytsia regio, Kramatorsk and Dnipro were all areas with reported impacts.
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
An extensive fire occurred last night near the railway station in Russian occupied Shakhtark, Donetsk Oblast. Some reports the fuel tanks were sabotaged by partisans to damage the important railway lines, other reports suggest Ukrainian artillery strikes. New explosions and fires in Shakhtarsk, as the fires continue.
OUTLOOK ——
Situation still relatively static, though could rapidly change. Key areas to watch out for -
- Any actual ‘dirty bomb’ event
- Ongoing offensive in Kherson (and what the Russians are up to there)
- Ongoing offensive in the east, any breakthrough against Svatove
Belarus -
No activity that indicates a Belarus invasion into N Ukraine. Scattered reports appear to be support to training Russian mobilized conscripts.
Israel -
IAF airstrikes reported over Damascus, Syria. Likely Israeli aircraft targeting IRGC militia weapons movements again.
Israeli raids targeted sites of Maher al-Assad’s Fourth Division
OBSERVATION – Almost routine strikes against Hezbollah sites and operations.
Iran -
Some of the largest protests so far spread across most of the country. Protestors are also starting to push back on the violence being inflicted on them by IRGC elements by attacking and killing them when given the opportunity.
US has seen indications Russia is considering training Iranians to help them crack down on Iran Protests, according to White House NSC spokesman John Kirby.
WH also said that nuclear negotiations are dead in the water for now.
ISIS claims responsibility on its telegram channel for the Shiraz attack in which at least 13 people were killed. Iranian President warned that the Shiraz terrorist attack will not go unanswered, and our enemies seek revenge by spreading division and violence.
OBSERVATION – A great deal of chaos hitting Iran from multiple directions. Note earlier saber rattling towards Azeri’s as well.
Syria -
Israeli airstrikes – see above
Venezuela -
Life in progressive dreamland continues to go more hellish. Maduro officials have accelerated ongoing efforts to close radio stations and seize transmission equipment belonging to independent media outlets in the country. Officials have closed 50 radio stations since the beginning of the year, with 15 closures coming in the last month, a significant increase from only nine closures last year. The closures reflect larger efforts by the Maduro government to consolidate government control over media in the country, which has left only 12 newspapers and 74 news and political radio stations, most of which are controlled by government agencies.
OBSERVATION – Surprised this level of censorship wasn’t instituted earlier.
Well, another Friday and a weekend inbound
Globalism / Great Reset –
This has been out there for a few days, just catching up to it.
Voter analytics firm PredictWise harvested location data from tens of millions of US cellphones during the initial Covid lockdown months and used this data to assign a “Covid-19 decree violation” score to the people associated with the phones.
These Covid-19 decree violation scores were calculated by analyzing nearly two billion global positioning system (GPS) pings to get “real-time, ultra-granular locations patterns.” People who were “on the go more often than their neighbors” were given a high Covid-19 decree violation score while those who mostly or always stayed at home were given a low Covid-19 decree violation score.
Location data and survey data are just two of the many types of data PredictWise claims to have access to. According to its white paper, PredictWise also tracks “telemetry data” (which is “passively sourced cell-phone data”), media consumption data, and unregistered voter data (which contains verified data on over 50 million unregistered voters that’s updated daily and sourced from credit files and portal registration data).
In total, PredictWise says its data “tracks the opinions, attitudes, and behaviors” of over 260 million Americans – a figure that represents 78% of the entire US population of 333 million.
OBSERVATION – This kind of locational data integrations with other metadata available to a private source is scary dangerous. It shows that key components of the GGR/WEF individual tracking and control desires via technology are available and being used for similar purposes. No need to embed spyware, its all out there in the ethersphere. Imagine the chaos that a global ruling elite can inflict if actual tracking software was mandated into smart phones, etc.
New PM Sunak’s WEF background is coming forward and British banking and way of life may be on the cusp of switching to a social credit score monitored digital currency. Sunak has explicitly endorsed central bank digital currencies and will now be overseeing their implementation in the British economy as Prime Minister.
“Central Bank Digital Currencies could be a digital version of money, a bit like a digital banknote, that could be used alongside physical notes and coins. Unlike most of the digital money people use daily today, it would be issued directly by a central bank…and governments and central banks across the world are working together looking into what having a digital currency what mean in practice,” Sunak said in a propaganda video pushing digital currency.
“It’s all part of the wider story of digital innovation that has delivered benefits to millions around the world and in the U.K.,” he added.
OBSERVATION – More and more reasons embedded globalists in Britain maneuvered the removal of the two previous PM’s to get this guy in.
Egypt is preparing to stage COP27, an international forum where they try to get the countries of the world to toe the line on emission reductions to meet the fairy tale goals of climate change temperature reductions. COP26 was a dumpster fire as the world was coming out of the wuhan plandemic. This year, Russian oil/gas cut offs have forced countries to refire coal and oil generation facilities with fuels coming from other sources. Countries deciding that keeping their citizens warm this winter and the factories operating was more important than meeting their emission goals.
Another component of the COPs concerns the transfer of wealth to poor, third world nations. The latest estimates to finance developing nations’ climate goals are in the scale of $6 trillion through 2030, according to the OECD. But with rich and poor economies alike grappling with rising inflation, falling revenue, and often political upheaval, finding that kind of money looks more difficult by the day. Shoukry acknowledged those concerns and called on governments to rise to the financial challenge, as they did during the pandemic.
OBSERVATION – wuhan and Ukraine have generated unintended consequence for the globalist take over of power and money. This year’s COP27 will likely be another contentious round that results in nothing being achieved.
PayPal’s $2500 fine is back on the front burner, the threat for spreading ‘misinformation’ never being taken off its terms of agreement. This censorship club is right inline with GGR goals. Infact PayPal is a big WEF operator.
PayPal’s Usman Ahmed, is one of 109 Young Global Leaders included in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2022 class.
The WEF has been relying on its Young Global Leaders to push its agenda, the WEF has pushed for the use of digital identity-tracking platforms and “social credit score” systems – strikingly similar to PayPal’s new policy.
PayPal is also an official corporate partner of the WEF, and several high-level employees from the company have routinely contributed articles to the group’s site and participated in its events. Dan Schulman, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, has authored articles for the WEF including “Technology is delivering better access to financial services. Here’s how” and “The thing that separates good companies from great ones: Trust.”
PayPal’s Head of Global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Strategy is also a member of the WEF’s Global Future Council on Social Cohesion and Just Transition.
In addition to being a WEF Young Global Leader, PayPal’s Ahmed has authored articles for the WEF website, including “To address inequalities we need a new vision for trade.”
OBSERVATION – Shocked, shocked I tell you.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday said she does not see signs of a recession after the Commerce Department released data showing the economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year.
Speaking on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront” in Ohio, Yellen said that “what we’re seeing right now is solid growth this quarter” in the economy and low unemployment across the workforce.
“It’s very natural that growth would slow. And it has over the first three quarters of this year, but it continues to be OK,” she said. “We have a very strong labor market. I don’t see signs of a recession in this economy at this point.”
OBSERVATION - One word - “transitory”.
More on the diesel crisis - After reports that diesel inventories are now down 20% below the five-year average, diesel shortages are likely to persist. Price spikes are forecast for the next six months as inventories sit at their lowest levels since 1996, and previously 1954, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
OBSERVATION - WARNING, any significant hit to the US from either a natural disaster or a man caused disaster could be made worse due to the lack of diesel necessary for the response elements to provide aid. This would expand to the unaffected areas as fuel is diverted to disaster relief related work. Thus truckers would stop trucking, trains stop training and river traffic (what’s left that can navigate the shallow water) to be limited.
And YES, this affects gasoline as it is diesel engines that bring the gasoline to your station. Numerous other secondary and tertiary effects can be expected.
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index shows a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in September, while the core PCE Price Index came in at a month-over-month measure of 0.5%. Year-over-year PCE data for September stayed the same at 6.2%, and yearly core PCE numbers increased to 5.1% from 4.9% in August, still beating expectations.
OBSERVATION – The core index makes it easier to see the underlying inflation trend by excluding two categories – food and energy – where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. They are an indicator of future inflationary trends.
Drought is expanding across America’s crop belt making it so dry that in some fields, fertilizer is evaporating from the soil, and plants are struggling to emerge from the ground. Three quarters of winter wheat is in a moderate to intense drought, a record high based on data going back to 2000.
OBSERVATION – Not a good trend. Third winter in a row hammering winter wheat. Though I pull back a degree from an impending global famine, this, combined with weather related crop failures across the globe (like the recent floods in Australia taking out a massive amount of its wheat and other crops) raises concerns and will continue to drive inflation via food prices – outside the efforts of the Fed rate increases to control.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden claimed that gas was “over $5” when he came into office. That isn’t even CLOSE to true. The average price of gas was $2.39/gallon when Biden took over.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Just breaking - Paul Pelosi, the speaker’s husband, was violently attacked after an assailant broke into their SF home. The speaker was not in SF at the time.
OBSERVATION - Contrary to the swarm of social media statements attributing the assault to MAGA and blaming republicans for stoking violence, the likely assailant is probably one with a long history of crime – likely a democrat.
What is notable about this event so far is the knee jerk reactions by the left claiming republicans and MAGA in particular are calling for violence. This shows a threshold of a divide between the left and right in regards to just who is calling for violence. As we’ve seen since the Berkeley riots in 2016 thru the BLM/Antifa firestorm of 2020, the left has demonstratively gone violent – with support from democrats in many ways. Similar violence on the right is largely absent – even with the events of J6 which paled in comparison to the destruction in DC in 2016 thru 2020.
This leftist mindset conditions them to be justified when they launch violence towards the right.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
PayPal still includes the “wrongthink” clause in their T&C, which allows them to fine you $2,500 for having ideas they don’t like, despite the public outcry and the shares falling 10%+ after it first hit news.
See GGR above for more on PayPal.
Meanwhile, twitterverse is in great turmoil as Musk has kicked out key personnel from their positions. In many ways, its good popcorn time. In others, irrational fears and bitterness is flowing like a river.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Midterms rapidly approaching and there are a plethora of conflicting news items out there on polls, elections schemes, etc. Hold tight and vote.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Defense Department officially abandoned the effort to pursue a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile, according to the Nuclear Posture Review unveiled today. The SLCM-N initiative, which received support from the Joint Chiefs and U.S. Strategic Command, was found to be of “zero value” in the most recent U.S. nuclear weapons review, a senior defense official told reporters in a Thursday briefing.
And at the same time the Pentagon also confirmed it was retiring the B83-1 gravity bomb - 80 to 100 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War Two.
“Our inventory of nuclear weapons is significant. We determined as we looked at our inventory that we don’t need that capability,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Thursday.
OBSERVATION – Start of a covert/overt degradation of our nuclear deterrent? Our delivery systems are in serious need of updating as well as the bombs themselves. This may reflect biden et al efforts to reduce the needed upgrades.
The US air force plans to replace its entire fleet of F-15 fighter jets based in Okinawa, Japan, with a “rotational” force, a shift that some American and Japanese officials worry will send a dangerous signal to China about deterrence.
The air force intends to retire two squadrons of aging F-15 Eagles that have been permanently based in Okinawa, according to six people familiar with the situation. The decision has triggered alarm in some parts of the Japanese government and the Pentagon because the air force does not intend to replace them with a permanent presence in the near term.
The move will involve half of the roughly 100 air force fighters in Japan and is part of a modernization program. Critics are concerned about possible gaps that could weaken the ability to deter China.
OBSERVATION – Cost cutting move to and extent. This is essentially a drawdown in the far east theatre that China will see clearly. Bad timing, very bad timing.
North/South Korea -
North Korea fired 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea overnight. Initial indications are the short-range ballistic missiles may have been launched from Tongchon area in Kangwon Province This NK’s first missile test in two weeks.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
One year ago the incident that started the dominoes falling to the current war occurred. Video footage showing Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB2 combat strike against an alleged separatist artillery position in Donbas was released. It turns out it was a Russian artillery unit supporting the separatists, and Russia wasn’t’ too happy about being exposed as directly supporting the separatists as well as having its unit being blown up. Russia began to move forces from all across the nation into Belarus and Russian (and Russian controlled) territory adjacent to Ukraine for a series of ‘exercises’.
We tracked its start here -
“Ukraine -
Ukraine has used a TB2 drone against separatist (Russian) artillery position which was in violation of Minsk agreements withdrawal range. Artillery appears to be D-30 towed howitzers.” –
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=653#653
And the subsequent build up starting here
“Reports coming in that Russia is building up military forces near its borders with Ukraine in response to the Ukranian drone attack on separatist (Russian) artillery. Among many reports included trains bearing T-72B1 with reactive armor and later BMP-2s.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=655#655
The rest is history
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
Logistics –
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization decree. Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. “Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results,” he said. Regional authorities are working on providing “the missing gear,” Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov “is personally responsible for this” as part of Putin’s new council.
NOTE – There have been reports of conscripted mobilists being equipped with Air Soft ‘kit’ in place of real equipment. Also many have been forced to pay for their kit out of their pockets, and issued rusty rifles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant around Kreminna and Bakhmut, without significant changes to report. Russian shelling remained intensive around Kreminna and Bakhmut and north of Kherson, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
Russian air/missile/drone strikes continued yesterday and overnight with still a significant reliance on the Iranian supplied drones. They continued to be more sporadic than earlier intensive waves,
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
A few Russian artillery stikes.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery strikes along the border NW of Kharkiv city.
Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks all along the LOC from Donetesk north to the Lysychansk region, with no success. Attacks were supported by limited artillery fire
Crimean front ———
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Same as before. Russia being pressured by Ukrainian assaults in the east and south. Ukraine also continues to target key logistic, command and troop concentrations.
Action in the east against Svatov shows the greatest potential for a Ukranian breakthrough. Such a case would be disastrous for Russia as it sits on major supply lines to the south and would permit Ukraine another romp through the Russian rear areas, poorly manned and equipped.
Future actions in Kherson are very clouded, as activity levels on both sides are way down from recent days.
Russia’s nuclear and dirty bomb rhetoric has toned down from the recent week. Still a great deal of fog concerning the actual purpose of the PR blitz.
Finally, strikes by Russian purchased Iranian drones, in addition to its own missiles are down substantially from last week. Russia has tossed a lot of the Iranian drones at Ukraine targeting its electrical infrastructure and may just be running low on stocks. Ukrainian success rate at taking the drones down runs between 70-80% so Russia has to fire a lot in order to get enough on target to effect things.
Bloomberg today reports, the Swiss banking giant, Credit Suisse, was close to a liquidity crisis. On Thursday, it said one or more of its units breached liquidity requirements this month when depositors pulled their money amid speculation about the lender’s turnaround plan.
Translation: the bank admits it suffered a bank run. According to a bank statement, the withdrawals were triggered by “negative press and social media coverage based on incorrect rumors” and made worse because the bank had limited its access to debt markets in the weeks before it unveiled its restructuring plan. Liquidity and funding ratios for the group as a whole have been maintained at all times.
OBSERVATION - Credit Suisse is hanging on by its fingernails. If it fails, banks throughout Europe could quickly follow suit.
Iran -
Protests/riots have increased in intensity in recent days. A number of casualties were reported as Iranian security forces fired at protesters in multiple cities. Amnesty International says security forces have killed eight people since Wednesday.
Heavy clashes broke out between protesters and government forces in Mahabad in northern Iran on Thursday, as an anti-regime protester Ismail Moloudi, who was killed by security forces, was buried in the city. After the funeral, crowds of protesters marched toward and surrounded the governor’s office in Mahabad, with intense clashes breaking out throughout the city.
Heavy gunfire was heard in videos of Mahabad and, according to Hengaw, at least three protesters were shot dead by Iranian forces during the protests in Mahabad, named as Shaho Khazri, Zanyar Abubakri and Kubra Sheikh Saqa.
Two Basij / IRGC members were shot and killed by unidentified people in Amol on Thursday night as they were leaving a mosque, according to ISNA. Similar shootings were reported in Tehran, Malayer and other cities on Wednesday night, according to the report.
Iranian oil and petrochemical workers announced a nationwide strike starting on Saturday in solidarity with the ongoing nationwide protests, stating that they would walk out of the plants they work at, according to a statement by the Organizing Council for Protests of Oil Contract Workers.
OBSERVATION - The Iranian govt is losing control over the riots as the protestors are losing their fear of physically confronting Basij / IRGC enforcers.
Iraq -
Iraq’s government continues to pull itself together. The Iraqi parliament voted by an absolute majority on the ministerial program for the government of Muhammad al-Sudani.
Lebanon -
Lebanese President - We concluded the maritime border agreement with Israel so that no war would break out
Saudi Arabia -
Saudi leaders are expecting to meet with Chinese President Xi soon.