Well, another Friday and a weekend inbound
Globalism / Great Reset –
This has been out there for a few days, just catching up to it.
Voter analytics firm PredictWise harvested location data from tens of millions of US cellphones during the initial Covid lockdown months and used this data to assign a “Covid-19 decree violation” score to the people associated with the phones.
These Covid-19 decree violation scores were calculated by analyzing nearly two billion global positioning system (GPS) pings to get “real-time, ultra-granular locations patterns.” People who were “on the go more often than their neighbors” were given a high Covid-19 decree violation score while those who mostly or always stayed at home were given a low Covid-19 decree violation score.
Location data and survey data are just two of the many types of data PredictWise claims to have access to. According to its white paper, PredictWise also tracks “telemetry data” (which is “passively sourced cell-phone data”), media consumption data, and unregistered voter data (which contains verified data on over 50 million unregistered voters that’s updated daily and sourced from credit files and portal registration data).
In total, PredictWise says its data “tracks the opinions, attitudes, and behaviors” of over 260 million Americans – a figure that represents 78% of the entire US population of 333 million.
OBSERVATION – This kind of locational data integrations with other metadata available to a private source is scary dangerous. It shows that key components of the GGR/WEF individual tracking and control desires via technology are available and being used for similar purposes. No need to embed spyware, its all out there in the ethersphere. Imagine the chaos that a global ruling elite can inflict if actual tracking software was mandated into smart phones, etc.
New PM Sunak’s WEF background is coming forward and British banking and way of life may be on the cusp of switching to a social credit score monitored digital currency. Sunak has explicitly endorsed central bank digital currencies and will now be overseeing their implementation in the British economy as Prime Minister.
“Central Bank Digital Currencies could be a digital version of money, a bit like a digital banknote, that could be used alongside physical notes and coins. Unlike most of the digital money people use daily today, it would be issued directly by a central bank…and governments and central banks across the world are working together looking into what having a digital currency what mean in practice,” Sunak said in a propaganda video pushing digital currency.
“It’s all part of the wider story of digital innovation that has delivered benefits to millions around the world and in the U.K.,” he added.
OBSERVATION – More and more reasons embedded globalists in Britain maneuvered the removal of the two previous PM’s to get this guy in.
Egypt is preparing to stage COP27, an international forum where they try to get the countries of the world to toe the line on emission reductions to meet the fairy tale goals of climate change temperature reductions. COP26 was a dumpster fire as the world was coming out of the wuhan plandemic. This year, Russian oil/gas cut offs have forced countries to refire coal and oil generation facilities with fuels coming from other sources. Countries deciding that keeping their citizens warm this winter and the factories operating was more important than meeting their emission goals.
Another component of the COPs concerns the transfer of wealth to poor, third world nations. The latest estimates to finance developing nations’ climate goals are in the scale of $6 trillion through 2030, according to the OECD. But with rich and poor economies alike grappling with rising inflation, falling revenue, and often political upheaval, finding that kind of money looks more difficult by the day. Shoukry acknowledged those concerns and called on governments to rise to the financial challenge, as they did during the pandemic.
OBSERVATION – wuhan and Ukraine have generated unintended consequence for the globalist take over of power and money. This year’s COP27 will likely be another contentious round that results in nothing being achieved.
PayPal’s $2500 fine is back on the front burner, the threat for spreading ‘misinformation’ never being taken off its terms of agreement. This censorship club is right inline with GGR goals. Infact PayPal is a big WEF operator.
PayPal’s Usman Ahmed, is one of 109 Young Global Leaders included in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2022 class.
The WEF has been relying on its Young Global Leaders to push its agenda, the WEF has pushed for the use of digital identity-tracking platforms and “social credit score” systems – strikingly similar to PayPal’s new policy.
PayPal is also an official corporate partner of the WEF, and several high-level employees from the company have routinely contributed articles to the group’s site and participated in its events. Dan Schulman, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, has authored articles for the WEF including “Technology is delivering better access to financial services. Here’s how” and “The thing that separates good companies from great ones: Trust.”
PayPal’s Head of Global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Strategy is also a member of the WEF’s Global Future Council on Social Cohesion and Just Transition.
In addition to being a WEF Young Global Leader, PayPal’s Ahmed has authored articles for the WEF website, including “To address inequalities we need a new vision for trade.”
OBSERVATION – Shocked, shocked I tell you.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday said she does not see signs of a recession after the Commerce Department released data showing the economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year.
Speaking on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront” in Ohio, Yellen said that “what we’re seeing right now is solid growth this quarter” in the economy and low unemployment across the workforce.
“It’s very natural that growth would slow. And it has over the first three quarters of this year, but it continues to be OK,” she said. “We have a very strong labor market. I don’t see signs of a recession in this economy at this point.”
OBSERVATION - One word - “transitory”.
More on the diesel crisis - After reports that diesel inventories are now down 20% below the five-year average, diesel shortages are likely to persist. Price spikes are forecast for the next six months as inventories sit at their lowest levels since 1996, and previously 1954, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
OBSERVATION - WARNING, any significant hit to the US from either a natural disaster or a man caused disaster could be made worse due to the lack of diesel necessary for the response elements to provide aid. This would expand to the unaffected areas as fuel is diverted to disaster relief related work. Thus truckers would stop trucking, trains stop training and river traffic (what’s left that can navigate the shallow water) to be limited.
And YES, this affects gasoline as it is diesel engines that bring the gasoline to your station. Numerous other secondary and tertiary effects can be expected.
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index shows a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in September, while the core PCE Price Index came in at a month-over-month measure of 0.5%. Year-over-year PCE data for September stayed the same at 6.2%, and yearly core PCE numbers increased to 5.1% from 4.9% in August, still beating expectations.
OBSERVATION – The core index makes it easier to see the underlying inflation trend by excluding two categories – food and energy – where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. They are an indicator of future inflationary trends.
Drought is expanding across America’s crop belt making it so dry that in some fields, fertilizer is evaporating from the soil, and plants are struggling to emerge from the ground. Three quarters of winter wheat is in a moderate to intense drought, a record high based on data going back to 2000.
OBSERVATION – Not a good trend. Third winter in a row hammering winter wheat. Though I pull back a degree from an impending global famine, this, combined with weather related crop failures across the globe (like the recent floods in Australia taking out a massive amount of its wheat and other crops) raises concerns and will continue to drive inflation via food prices – outside the efforts of the Fed rate increases to control.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden claimed that gas was “over $5” when he came into office. That isn’t even CLOSE to true. The average price of gas was $2.39/gallon when Biden took over.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Just breaking - Paul Pelosi, the speaker’s husband, was violently attacked after an assailant broke into their SF home. The speaker was not in SF at the time.
OBSERVATION - Contrary to the swarm of social media statements attributing the assault to MAGA and blaming republicans for stoking violence, the likely assailant is probably one with a long history of crime – likely a democrat.
What is notable about this event so far is the knee jerk reactions by the left claiming republicans and MAGA in particular are calling for violence. This shows a threshold of a divide between the left and right in regards to just who is calling for violence. As we’ve seen since the Berkeley riots in 2016 thru the BLM/Antifa firestorm of 2020, the left has demonstratively gone violent – with support from democrats in many ways. Similar violence on the right is largely absent – even with the events of J6 which paled in comparison to the destruction in DC in 2016 thru 2020.
This leftist mindset conditions them to be justified when they launch violence towards the right.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
PayPal still includes the “wrongthink” clause in their T&C, which allows them to fine you $2,500 for having ideas they don’t like, despite the public outcry and the shares falling 10%+ after it first hit news.
See GGR above for more on PayPal.
Meanwhile, twitterverse is in great turmoil as Musk has kicked out key personnel from their positions. In many ways, its good popcorn time. In others, irrational fears and bitterness is flowing like a river.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Midterms rapidly approaching and there are a plethora of conflicting news items out there on polls, elections schemes, etc. Hold tight and vote.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Defense Department officially abandoned the effort to pursue a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile, according to the Nuclear Posture Review unveiled today. The SLCM-N initiative, which received support from the Joint Chiefs and U.S. Strategic Command, was found to be of “zero value” in the most recent U.S. nuclear weapons review, a senior defense official told reporters in a Thursday briefing.
And at the same time the Pentagon also confirmed it was retiring the B83-1 gravity bomb - 80 to 100 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War Two.
“Our inventory of nuclear weapons is significant. We determined as we looked at our inventory that we don’t need that capability,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Thursday.
OBSERVATION – Start of a covert/overt degradation of our nuclear deterrent? Our delivery systems are in serious need of updating as well as the bombs themselves. This may reflect biden et al efforts to reduce the needed upgrades.
The US air force plans to replace its entire fleet of F-15 fighter jets based in Okinawa, Japan, with a “rotational” force, a shift that some American and Japanese officials worry will send a dangerous signal to China about deterrence.
The air force intends to retire two squadrons of aging F-15 Eagles that have been permanently based in Okinawa, according to six people familiar with the situation. The decision has triggered alarm in some parts of the Japanese government and the Pentagon because the air force does not intend to replace them with a permanent presence in the near term.
The move will involve half of the roughly 100 air force fighters in Japan and is part of a modernization program. Critics are concerned about possible gaps that could weaken the ability to deter China.
OBSERVATION – Cost cutting move to and extent. This is essentially a drawdown in the far east theatre that China will see clearly. Bad timing, very bad timing.
North/South Korea -
North Korea fired 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea overnight. Initial indications are the short-range ballistic missiles may have been launched from Tongchon area in Kangwon Province This NK’s first missile test in two weeks.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
One year ago the incident that started the dominoes falling to the current war occurred. Video footage showing Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB2 combat strike against an alleged separatist artillery position in Donbas was released. It turns out it was a Russian artillery unit supporting the separatists, and Russia wasn’t’ too happy about being exposed as directly supporting the separatists as well as having its unit being blown up. Russia began to move forces from all across the nation into Belarus and Russian (and Russian controlled) territory adjacent to Ukraine for a series of ‘exercises’.
We tracked its start here -
“Ukraine -
Ukraine has used a TB2 drone against separatist (Russian) artillery position which was in violation of Minsk agreements withdrawal range. Artillery appears to be D-30 towed howitzers.” –
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=653#653
And the subsequent build up starting here
“Reports coming in that Russia is building up military forces near its borders with Ukraine in response to the Ukranian drone attack on separatist (Russian) artillery. Among many reports included trains bearing T-72B1 with reactive armor and later BMP-2s.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3920606/posts?page=655#655
The rest is history
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
Logistics –
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization decree. Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. “Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results,” he said. Regional authorities are working on providing “the missing gear,” Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov “is personally responsible for this” as part of Putin’s new council.
NOTE – There have been reports of conscripted mobilists being equipped with Air Soft ‘kit’ in place of real equipment. Also many have been forced to pay for their kit out of their pockets, and issued rusty rifles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant around Kreminna and Bakhmut, without significant changes to report. Russian shelling remained intensive around Kreminna and Bakhmut and north of Kherson, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
Russian air/missile/drone strikes continued yesterday and overnight with still a significant reliance on the Iranian supplied drones. They continued to be more sporadic than earlier intensive waves,
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
A few Russian artillery stikes.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery strikes along the border NW of Kharkiv city.
Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks all along the LOC from Donetesk north to the Lysychansk region, with no success. Attacks were supported by limited artillery fire
Crimean front ———
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Same as before. Russia being pressured by Ukrainian assaults in the east and south. Ukraine also continues to target key logistic, command and troop concentrations.
Action in the east against Svatov shows the greatest potential for a Ukranian breakthrough. Such a case would be disastrous for Russia as it sits on major supply lines to the south and would permit Ukraine another romp through the Russian rear areas, poorly manned and equipped.
Future actions in Kherson are very clouded, as activity levels on both sides are way down from recent days.
Russia’s nuclear and dirty bomb rhetoric has toned down from the recent week. Still a great deal of fog concerning the actual purpose of the PR blitz.
Finally, strikes by Russian purchased Iranian drones, in addition to its own missiles are down substantially from last week. Russia has tossed a lot of the Iranian drones at Ukraine targeting its electrical infrastructure and may just be running low on stocks. Ukrainian success rate at taking the drones down runs between 70-80% so Russia has to fire a lot in order to get enough on target to effect things.
Bloomberg today reports, the Swiss banking giant, Credit Suisse, was close to a liquidity crisis. On Thursday, it said one or more of its units breached liquidity requirements this month when depositors pulled their money amid speculation about the lender’s turnaround plan.
Translation: the bank admits it suffered a bank run. According to a bank statement, the withdrawals were triggered by “negative press and social media coverage based on incorrect rumors” and made worse because the bank had limited its access to debt markets in the weeks before it unveiled its restructuring plan. Liquidity and funding ratios for the group as a whole have been maintained at all times.
OBSERVATION - Credit Suisse is hanging on by its fingernails. If it fails, banks throughout Europe could quickly follow suit.
Iran -
Protests/riots have increased in intensity in recent days. A number of casualties were reported as Iranian security forces fired at protesters in multiple cities. Amnesty International says security forces have killed eight people since Wednesday.
Heavy clashes broke out between protesters and government forces in Mahabad in northern Iran on Thursday, as an anti-regime protester Ismail Moloudi, who was killed by security forces, was buried in the city. After the funeral, crowds of protesters marched toward and surrounded the governor’s office in Mahabad, with intense clashes breaking out throughout the city.
Heavy gunfire was heard in videos of Mahabad and, according to Hengaw, at least three protesters were shot dead by Iranian forces during the protests in Mahabad, named as Shaho Khazri, Zanyar Abubakri and Kubra Sheikh Saqa.
Two Basij / IRGC members were shot and killed by unidentified people in Amol on Thursday night as they were leaving a mosque, according to ISNA. Similar shootings were reported in Tehran, Malayer and other cities on Wednesday night, according to the report.
Iranian oil and petrochemical workers announced a nationwide strike starting on Saturday in solidarity with the ongoing nationwide protests, stating that they would walk out of the plants they work at, according to a statement by the Organizing Council for Protests of Oil Contract Workers.
OBSERVATION - The Iranian govt is losing control over the riots as the protestors are losing their fear of physically confronting Basij / IRGC enforcers.
Iraq -
Iraq’s government continues to pull itself together. The Iraqi parliament voted by an absolute majority on the ministerial program for the government of Muhammad al-Sudani.
Lebanon -
Lebanese President - We concluded the maritime border agreement with Israel so that no war would break out
Saudi Arabia -
Saudi leaders are expecting to meet with Chinese President Xi soon.
It was said that Kay Ivy, the Govenor of Alabama used cell phone data when she locked down Alabama.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The European Union (EU) announced Thursday that it will be outlawing the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035 even though EU countries are already struggling to fight soaring electricity costs. EU member states and the European Commission agreed to force all new cars and vans registered in the EU to be electric by 2035.
OBSERVATION – Another blind move by the greenies without thinking it through. They are so hell-bent on imposing their green solution that they will willingly destroy their countries to implement. This may have consequences in countries struggling with power to either ignore the dictate, or leave the union.
GGR elements WANT to burn it all down so they can rule over the ashes.
Economy –
Economists widely expect another three quarters of a percentage point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November, but there’s much less agreement about what happens next.
OBSERVATION - Increasing the prime by such a large step – in conjunction with previous large increases, will serve to throw the country into a serious recession.
California is considering a proposal by state air regulators to phase out the sale of medium and heavy-duty gas-powered vehicles within the next 20 years.
If adopted, all new medium and heavy-duty vehicles sold in the Golden State will be required to be zero-emission by 2040. Additionally, the proposal outlines a phased approach to adding zero-emission vehicles to certain fleets at the state and federal levels.
Chris Shimoda, senior vice president of government affairs at the California Trucking Association, told board members that the charging infrastructure necessary to implement the proposal will require 65 to 160 megawatts, “enough capacity to power a small city.”
OBSERVATION – Another example of the foolishness of the greenies and their blindness to the impacts of their plans. Like the EU (see GGR above), electric trucks will not be capable of moving the volumes they do today – see how the touted Ford electric truck couldn’t even pull a trailer much over 90 miles on a full charge. And Kalifornia’s regulation will ripple into the other states who either have to alter their standards for all electric, or set up shipping transfer stations outside of it for diesel trucks to take over. But then common sense is totally absent in the greenies – only pushing for their green utopia single mindedly.
Invasion of Illegals -
Guatemalan Interior Minister Napoleon Barrientos warned that massive migrant caravans are heading for the US border. He said the surge of migrants is due, in part, to fears that Republicans may take back control of Congress and push for tougher measures aimed at curbing illegal migration.
Speaking with the Daily Caller, Barrientos said that Guatemalan authorities “have information that caravans will be coming in the next few weeks, particularly before the date of November 8,” adding that they are conducting operations within the country to “stop the flow migration.”
He added that illegal aliens in the caravans are basing their decisions on “information … that after [November 8], policies will be hardened.” In other words, they know Joe has open borders but the GOP does not.
OBSERVATION – With lower temperatures, movement is better – at least before winter sets in. The midterm election assessment is likely accurate, though any push by a republican congress for tougher measures will need a veto proof majority which even with a red wave is unlikely.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Justice Department released a summary of its “comprehensive” Election Day plan Wednesday and said it is aimed at ensuring that “all qualified voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots and have their votes counted free of discrimination, intimidation or fraud in the election process. “Consistent with longstanding Justice Department practices and procedures,” the Civil Rights, Criminal and National Security Divisions will spearhead the effort.
However, the wording and potential implementation of the ‘plan” has made many concerned that the DoJ will focus only on Republican-led states on Election Day in a bid to prop up chances for a Democratic victory. These concerns are reinforced by the DoJ refusing release its strategic plan for implementing President Biden’s executive order on voting access and so far, DOJ has only released a heavily redacted copy.
OBSERVATION – If DoJ targets red states to the exclusion of blue, then the perception of a dual law will be reinforced. This will easily increase anger on the right and cause potential future conflicts. Expect intense lawfare to break out if this is the case. Could result in things tied up in the courts for years.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mover here from yesterday’s CW2 –
The Paul Pelosi assault story is getting stranger and stranger with time. Yesterday, leftist were crowing that they had found their MAGA “smoking gun” because the accused perp - 42-year-old Berkeley resident David DePape – reported posted conspiracy stuff on his social media pages. Since then those voices have become increasingly silent as further information has come out.
1. The 911 call raises serious red flags –
“RP [Reporting Person] stated that there’s a male in the home and that he’s going to wait for his wife. RP stated that he doesn’t know who the male is but he advised that his name is David, and that he is a friend,” the dispatch official said. “RP sounded somewhat confused.
2. DePape lives in a Berkeley house dubbed a “hippie collective” by neighbors, with BLM, LGBT and other leftist signs/symbols adorning the walls and windows.
3. DePape is reported to be a ‘Former Castro Nudist Protester’ The reference to ‘Castro’ is to the Gay district in San Francisco.
4. Not only was he a nudist but he was a member of the Green Party.
5. Police say that when they responded to the home around 2:30 a.m., they found both struggling for a hammer wearing only their underwear.
6. How did a guy wearing only underwear get past security?
7. Pelosi has a drinking problem (see recent DUI). “somewhat confused”
8. Nancy was out of town
The following is simple speculation – but is this event the result of a ‘lovers spat’? A ‘hook up’ gone bad? The police statements and the sudden silence on the left makes one say ‘hmmmmmm’.
Clearly, the leftist narrative that DePape was some rightwinger is out the window. What is left is clearly strange and will likely be heavily covered up.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The U.S. government warns of a “heightened threat” to the upcoming midterm elections Nov. 8 due to a rise in domestic violence extremism, or DVE, that’s being driven by ideological grievances, according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by CBS News.
The joint intelligence bulletin, which was published Friday, generally references how the “potential targets of DVE violence include candidates running for public office, elected officials, election workers, political rallies, political party representatives, racial and religious minorities, or perceived ideological opponents.”
OBSERVATION – MSM sources have been quick to link this warning to the Pelosi assault (see above). A better example (and one the MSM has ignored) is that of a campaign volunteer for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who was “brutally attacked” by four people who allegedly told him Republicans weren’t allowed in their neighborhood.
China –
China continues to self-inflict economic and domestic pain to itself due to its “covid zero” policy. Most recently, Shanghai’s downtown Yangpu district, a primarily residential area that includes the campuses of Fudan and Tongji Universities, ordered mass testing for its 1.3 million residents on Friday and ordered them to remain in their homes – a chilling echo of the brutal two-month lockdown the entire city endured over the summer.
OBSERVATION – I am beginning to wonder if Xi is changing the wuhan lockdown to be more of a population submission tool than a disease prevention. Since being elected to his third term, he has wrapped himself with hard liners and any free thought (brough on by western-based prosperity, like Shanghai) must be kept in line.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Internal Russian leadership infighting – primarily between Wagner and Chechen mercenary forces and the establishment generals in the Kremlin has lead to the likely hood that putin is leaning towards stronger measures in the fight. Internal dissention of the civilian population over the ‘mobilization’ and the risk of even a potential coup are rising.
********
NUKE WATCH -
Putin on Thursday appeared to rule out the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In yet another U-turn over the Kremlin’s willingness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin claimed that there would be no need for Russia to deploy weapons of mass destruction.
“We see no need for that,” Putin told a conference of foreign policy experts. “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military.”
NOTE – Some are not accepting this U-turn. They believe his comments could be part of an effort by the Kremlin to spread disinformation and to set the stage for a Russian deployment of a dirty bomb that may later be blamed on Ukraine. It follows a coordinated effort by the Russian government to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb as part of a false flag attack.
We are not out of the woods yet.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- General Staff of armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 70,250
- Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Putin that 82 000 mobilized men have been already sent to Ukraine, 218000 are trained at firing ranges and that the ‘limited’ mobilization has reached its goals and has ended. Russia’s MOD says 82,000 reservists have been sent to Ukraine after completing training. Another 218,000 are in combat training.
- Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed a Ukrainian intelligence report that the Wagner Group is recruiting prisoners with HIV and Hepatitis C to fight in Ukraine
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be concentrated south and east of Bakhmut, near Kreminna and northwest of Donetsk City in the southeast of the country. It has also reportedly increased significantly south of Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast. Russian shelling was intensive around Davydiv Brid, Bakhmut, north of Donetsk City, on and around Mykolaiv and near Kharkiv the last 24hrs
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian army shelled Hay, Khrinivka and Leonivka of Chernihiv Oblast border region.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly secured much of the Svatove-Kreminna highway now isolating several Russian units (this would be the N-S running Hwy 66). Push towards Svatov continues with fighting west of the city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia launched attacks northwest of Donetesk that were repulsed. General artillery fire along the LOC northeast of Donetsk with sporatic attacks to the west.
Crimean front ———
Sporatic Russian artillery fire along the LOC in N Kherson Oblast.
Reports that Russia may soon implement a mandatory 100% civilian evacuation of Kherson city.
HIMARS time, as several powerful explosions were reported at a Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka.
There was an attack by Ukrainian UAVs/loitering munitions & UUVs targeting the military facilities of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol this morning, according to the Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Natya-class minesweeper (Project 266M) “Ivan Golubets” of the Black Sea Fleet received “minor damage” in an apparent Ukrainian attack. Unconfirmed Russian media reports that frigate Admiral Makarov Radar mast has been damaged. Another potential target – a large oil storage facility – was barely missed by at least one drone.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No big moves that can be predicted in the near term. Ukraine is continues to push east and may be close to breaking thru Russian defenses of Svatov. Ukraine action in Kherson Oblast continues to be cautious as it evaluates Russian troop reinforcements and defensive positions.
Wagner group militias will continue to attack the Bakhmut region as any success there bolsters its position in the eyes of Russian nationalist talking heads and milbloggers - providing them clout and influence with putin.
Latest info on Belarus (see below) suggests the threat of a renewed attack from the north including Belarus military is greatly reduced.
Russia’s rhetoric on nukes is all over the board still, but putin could be pulling back given the push back and potential ramifications of a strike from NATO countries – possibly a stronger response than he anticipated.
Belarus -
Exercises of the Belarusian Armed Forces are extended till at least November 7 in Belarus.
OBSERVATION – Belarus/Russian activity continues to be conducted in central and western areas of Belarus. No troop buildup near any approaches to Kyiv.
The Lukashenka regime handed over more than 65,000 tons of ammunition to Russia in 7 months. According to Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun, Minsk has sent around 1,940 railcars with ammunition to Russia since March.
OBSERVATION – The amount of armor/tanks and now ammunition transferred to Russia from Belarus indicates that the threat of an attack by the Belarus or even the Russians from there is very slim. With Belarus war stocks so depleted, and Russia unable to resupply (all its ammo/equipment going into Ukraine) any attack would be stopped quickly, if even their military went along with the order.
The EU appointed Polish General Piotr Trytek to lead its training operation for Ukraine’s military. Trytek has experience in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This underscores Poland’s critical role in training Ukrainian forces, as the EU training program’s command centers are in Poland and Germany
OBSERVATION – This makes sense, given Poland’s proximity to Ukraine and their relationship since the start of conflict.
Israel -
With the impending 5th election in 3 years, Netanyahu is favored to become PM once again. However, the potential coalition he would lead would only have a slim margin in parliament.
Iran -
Protests continue. Iran is accusing Washington of training protesters and inciting the Mahsa Amini family against it. Clashes are becoming increasingly violent.
IRGC and Basij elements have been damaging stores and businesses in various cities, probably those supporting the riots via closures.
OBSERVATION - IRGC and Basij tactics and violence is creating martyrs for the protestor’s cause and anger because of business destruction. Both are contributing to the energization of the protestors.