anxiety levels up a little with all the crap flying out there today. Sometimes ignorance IS bliss.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Britain’s soon-to-be PM Sunak rules out a general election. Other speculation is that he could implement a Chinese-style social credit system in the UK. A great deal of discussion that WEF agenda will be further advanced by Sunak on the interwebs.
The Netherlands has become a testing ground for the globalist Great Reset being pursued by the World Economic Forum. In the process, people’s diets are being switched to insects. After most farmers in the Netherlands were officially ruined by suspect “nitrate laws”, insects are currently being introduced in schools.
OBSERVATION – Similar to what is happening in Australia, the GGR/WEF proponents are working to desensitize the population to the consumption of bugs – prior to the banning of other sources of animal protein.
Also note that the ones promoting kids eating bugs are not eating bugs themselves.
Wuhan virus -
I’m seeing rumors that the WHO is working to bring the global pandemic treaty back from the dead.
Economy –
Yellen says the Treasury is taking steps to mitigate potential risks in the Treasury market and private money market and bond funds.
OBSERVATION – Still great concerns about the Treasury market’s liquidity. However, take what she says with a grain of salt - she also said the inflation we are having is just ‘transitory’.
Biden told a Democrat fund-raiser Monday night that the 15 percent minimum tax on large corporations is not a “fair share” after all.
He said Democrats are “fiscally responsible”; they are building an economy “where everyone does well”; and he slammed the minimum 15 percent tax rate on big corporations as “not a fair share,” after months of insisting that corporations should pay their fair share.
OBSERVATION – SMH, the rest of his speech is Twilight Zone material.
Biden / Harris watch –
An overabundance today –
BIDEN TO VP HARRIS: “Happy birthday to our great President”
“Am I slowing up? Am I don’t have the same pace? You know, & that old joke—You know, everybody talks about the—you know, the new 70’s 50—you know, all that stuff. You know, I—you know, could be [...] I could get a disease tomorrow, I could, you know, drop dead tomorrow.”
Joe Biden falsely claimed Congress voted on his unconstitutional student loan forgiveness package during a sit-down interview with NowThis ‘Make Your Mark’ midterm discussion.
“It’s passed. I got it passed by a vote or two,” Biden said.
Biden appeared confused as he tried to make his way back to the White House following a tree planting event on the South Lawn. The worrying footage posted to Twitter on Monday afternoon showed the president leaving the event honoring the White House groundskeeper, but he stops short and is heard asking his team, ‘where do we go?’
When the security turns Biden around and points him in the right direction, he exclaims that he wanted to go the other way.
Biden responded by saying he is going to push to ban ‘assault weapons’ after the midterm elections and urged people to vote for Democrats in order to secure the ban.
He noted, “My legislation says there can be no more than eight bullets in a round.”
OBSERVATION – As the evidence of his mental deterioration grows, I’m still amazed he has lasted this long in office. I suspect strongly that the progressive powers behind biden will be working hard to move him out of office, taking harris with him, in order to position a legitimate candidate for president in 2024. This may accelerate depending upon the size of the red wave.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Militants in Eugene, Oregon, formed a riot-control phalanx to disperse the protesters of a drag queen story hour. The display of riot control tactics appears to be a new development for Leftists.
OBSERVATION – Since Antifa moved to center stage during the Berkeley riots in the 2016 range, many have scoffed at these misfits – and yes, many are misfits. However, to those who’ve paid attention, Antifa has upped their game – especially after 2020 to refine their tactics and training to become more effective in violent actions.
A man has been arrested for allegedly beating a person in Florida, authorities confirmed on Oct. 24. Javier Jesus Lopez, 22, was taken into custody for beating a man who was walking around the neighborhood “handing out fliers,” according to a Hialeah Police Department report. The Hialeah has also said the attack was not politically motivated.
OBSERVATION – Democrats have set the narrative over the past decade that republicans are open season. With the turmoil of the last few years, the democrat rhetoric has reached a fever pitch. However, I’m actually surprised that at this juncture there has not been as many political based attacks as there were in 2020.
Hillary published a video on Monday where she accuses “rightwing extremists” of “already having a plan to literally steal the next presidential election.”
OBSERVATION – For democrats to drag this old war horse out and make these statements is on one hand humorous, but on the other extremely dangerous for the country. Bringing her out could well be a primer for behind closed doors maneuvering to some how get her into the presidential chain prior to the 2024 elections.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Closing in on the midterms. Great potential for a red wave, or a repeat of election fraud.
China –
Well we learned what Garland’s big presser was about. Two Chinese intelligence officers have been criminally charged with attempting to obstruct the prosecution of the Huawei global telecommunications company, federal court files reveal. The criminal complaint accuses Guochun He and Zheng Wang of paying a U.S. government employee a total of $61,000 worth of Bitcoin cryptocurrency for confidential information about the Department of Justice’s pending prosecution of China-based Huawei.
Garland also announced two more criminal cases related to efforts by the Chinese government to interfere in U.S. affairs.
One in New Jersey charges three Chinese intelligence agents with conspiring to act in the United States as illegal agents on behalf of a foreign government.
The other in the Eastern District of New York accuses several people working on behalf of the Chinese government of “engaging in a multi-year campaign of threats and harassment to force a U.S. resident to return to China,” Garland said.
OBSERVATION - This is not a big surprise, its been a pretty much an open secret that Chinas has been doing stuff like this for a long time. Only thing suspicious about this is the timing - possible to gain the impression of the American people biden et al are doing something to benefit the country for once.
Xi’s assumption to power caused Chinese markets into a dive on Oct. 24, marking a broader pessimism that the leader’s policies will have negative consequences for the global economy. Investors in the Chinese market wiped nearly 10 percent off the value of internet giants Alibaba and JD.com and 7 percent off Tencent.
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4.5 percent, and a sub-index of Chinese internet giants listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai tracked a 2 percent fall as foreign investors sold more than $1.3 billion in Chinese shares.
The trigger for the rapid market fall this week appears to be Xi’s unexpected move to further appoint authoritarian-minded loyalists to positions of power, raising fears that there will be no balance of powers within the CCP.
OBSERVATION – Xi is taking more direct control of China’s economy and taking it a step back away from western style capitalistic markets. They see old-school directed economies reappearing.
According to Taiwan Deputy Economy Minister Tseng Wen-Sheng, the island nation is increasing its reserves of natural gas, coal, and oil. Newly built storage facilities will increase Taiwan’s emergency natural gas supplies to 20 days by 2030 and coal reserves to about 100 days.
OBSERVATION – Wise move, prepare today.
North/South Korea -
Reports there are indications now that preparations are in the final phases for another nuclear test.
NOTE – there have been several months now of ‘final preparations’ statements by various sources. This does not mean I discount the possibility, just the validity of these sources making these claims. A replacement adit for the original adit #3 has been completed but last I saw, there was no construction equipment on site for some time now.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the“three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.
********
Russia calls for UNSC consultations on “dirty bomb” threat.
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical, and biological protection forces, announced Ukrainian forces are in the “final stage” of preparations to use a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), otherwise known as a “Dirty Bomb”. Citing the technical capabilities of Ukraine, Kirillov said the Ukrainian RDD would be disguised as a malfunctioning Russian tactical nuclear device containing highly enriched uranium using materials from Ukrainian nuclear facilities.
OBSERVATION – The whole fury of the propaganda push on this dirty bomb scenario is unprecedented for Russia.
Four unexplained underwater explosions in Gulf of Finland on Russian territorial waters last Thursday (Oct 20), picked up by University of Helsinki Institute of Seismology. Magnitudes: 2.0,1.5,1.5, and 1.4.
NOTE - those are pretty big bangs to be measured at those seismic magnitudes.
NUKE WATCH -
The U.S. still have seen nothing to indicate that the Russians have made a decision to employ nuclear weapons, says senior defense official.
RUMINT –
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, which may come to pose a threat to Putin’s rule — at least within the information space. This is largely reflected in Wagner’s dogged assault to capture Bahkmut – part of the power play to show the conventional Russian forces impotent.
Logistics –
- Russia is sending more of T-90M to Ukraine, spotted on a train Samara and it contains at least 8 of them. Russia had only 67 units of the T-90M and several had been lost in Ukraine, already.
- Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that Russian conscripts to be equipped with Iranian-made helmets, body armor. About 1,500 bulletproof vests and 1,500 helmets produced in Iran are already in storage in Russia, ready to be supplied to the Russian army, reports Ukraine’s Defence Ministry.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Kremlin officials walked back an earlier announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the end of partial mobilization efforts. Speaking to reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no “specific date” for the end of mobilization.
- Hurried Russian mobilization efforts to fix personnel shortages have resulted in the cannibalization of military training staff, thus diminishing Russia’s ability to effectively train and deploy new personnel.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces continue with waves of localized offensives around Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces are holding their lines, in fact taking ground back in some cases. Russian shelling continues to be intensive this week in many regions, mostly north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut.
Still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russia’s Kherson gambit. A lot of unconfirmed reports of fresh conscripts being put on the front lines and the more veteran troops pulling back to Kherson to establish a defense there.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporatic artillery attacks across the north.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Scattered Russian artillery attacks along the border from the north to the east.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements in Luhansk Oblast, among them Karmazynivka and are only 12km away from the city perimeter of Svatove. Potential pincer developing N and S of the city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
The Wagner mercenaries have lead the effort against Bakhmut for the past few months and the last few days has not gone well and have actually lost ground acquired after months of fighting.
Ukraine also repulsed attacks in the area of Spirne, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
Crimean front ———
Occupation administration officials have taken down communications systems in Kherson City in an attempt to limit civilian reporting on Russian positions to Ukrainian forces ahead of anticipated Ukrainian advances.
Russia is reportedly creating an “illusion” of retreat by evacuating civilians from Kherson. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence arm, told the online news outlet Ukrainska Pravda that as Ukrainian forces advance on Kherson, Russia is moving out cash, Russian-installed authorities, and injured people — and moving in military resources.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR…
Russian Territory -—
In the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, an explosive device went off on strategically important railway tracks. The explosion took place between Novozybkov and Zlynka, which are located at the junction with Ukraine and Belarus. These are part of Russia’s supply lines into Belarus.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. 5 wounded in vehicle explosion in Melitopol, no details on who may have been the target of the bomb.
OUTLOOK ——
Russian forces are likely preparing to defend Kherson City and are not fully withdrawing from upper Kherson Oblast despite previously confirmed reports of some Russian elements withdrawing from upper Kherson. What exactly is on Russia’s mind appears to be displayed in increased caution by the Ukrainian forces.
The recent increase in belligerent language between Russia and the U.S-led pro-Ukrainian coalition has some analysts thinking a significant event is about to unfold in Ukraine. I can’t disagree, and I’m not sure it will be very nice - possibly a big escalation by putin.
Belarus -
Ukraine estimates the number of Russian troops in Belarus at 3200 people.
They also noted that there are no signs of formation of strike groups on the territory of Belarus.
NOTE – Belarus is still being assessed as more of a distraction rather than a threat.
After 6 months, natural gas prices in Europe (Amsterdam) went below the 100 EUR/MWh line. At his moment the value stands at 98 EUR/MWh. When Nordstream was blown up it was at 210 EUR/MWh.
OBSERVATION – The crash course Europe has been on to replace lost Russian gas and institute strict use reductions appears to be working for now. This has removed a big stick Russia had and easing pressure on Europe.
Norwegian police detained two Russians in Nordland province. They are suspected of illegally photographing military objects. According to a police representative, Russian citizens were detained on October 22, and will be imprisoned on the 24th. The Russians themselves insist that they were in Norway as tourists. The PST Police Security Service will investigate the case.
OBSERVATION – Russia or someone has been inceasing intelligence collection on nations in the region initially via drones. HUMINT is still a very valuable source – see Ukraine’s success striking Russian HVTs.
Israel -
See Syria for recent air strike.
Iran -
Protests continue and the attempts to put it down by Iran have become more harsh – but those efforts have created more backlash and support than stopping the riots. IGRC and the like have focused on beating women for example, not taken well by the citizens. In Mahabad, NW Iran locals are gaining control over various areas of the city and overnight there was a blast and accompanying power outage in Tehranpars, Tehran.
Syria -
Further Israeli airstrikes earlier yesterday reported against IRGC militia compound near Damascus airport. Reports of at least two killed. Likely targeting weapons movements again.
If ignorance IS bliss, then why aren't more people happy?
OBSERVATION – As the evidence of his mental deterioration grows, I’m still amazed he has lasted this long in office. I suspect strongly that the progressive powers behind biden will be working hard to move him out of office, taking harris with him, in order to position a legitimate candidate for president in 2024. This may accelerate depending upon the size of the red wave.
If so expect the new president (St. Hillary the Divine?) to be in office no earlier than January 21st. This will give less than two years as a replacement, opening the door for two full eight year elected terms.
Ahhhhh, The Glorious Hillary!™ Decade!...
Globalism / Great Reset –
On Monday, newly sworn Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta criticized Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF) and announced that she would be cutting ties between her province’s health authority and the globalists WEF during a press conference in Edmonton.
“I find it distasteful when billionaires brag about how much control they have over political leaders as the head of that organization has,” said Smith following the swearing-in ceremony of her cabinet ministers.
“And so, quite frankly, until that organization stops bragging about how much control they have over political leaders, I have no interest in being involved with them. My focus is here in Alberta solving problems for Albertans with the mandate from Albertans,” she said.
OBSERVATION - Much of the WEF/GGR is coming from their lackey Trudeau who has angered the western provinces over numerous GGR agenda items from restricting oil production to attacking farming and ranching. There are hints of a potential separatist movement as Trudeau continues to push the agendas.
. While addressing the Business Roundtable on Monday, Biden said there is “going to be a new world order” that must be led by the United States.
“You know we are at an inflection point, I believe, in the world economy — not just the world economy, in the world. Occurs every three or four generations,”
“A lot of people died but nowhere near the chaos, and now is the time when things are shifting. There’s going to be a new world order out there. We’ve got to lead it, and we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it,” he continued.
WEF article from 2018 entitled “We must work together to build a new world order. This is how we can do it,” claims that the West has been resisting a “change in the international order” through “intransigent denial, while zealously clinging onto what we inherited from the Cold War.”
OBSERVATION – The phrase “new world order” has been on scene for a while but really took off under President George H.W Bush in 1991. It has come out of the conspiracy theory realm into harsh open reality in association with WEF and UN plans and goals. Biden et al are going to have a shock when they realize they aren’t high enough on the elite ladder to lead this brave new world and have been used as pawns.
Wuhan virus -
On Tuesday, the New York Supreme Court ruled that New York City must reinstate all employees that were fired because of their vaccination status. The order also states that for those fired, backpay must be issued. In its decision the court noted “Being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting Covid-19.”
OBSERVATION - Well, this will probably start promulgating to other situations.
Economy –
Top Wall Street bankers renewed their warnings about the world economy on Tuesday amid geopolitical tensions and steep interest rate hikes to tackle decades-high inflation.
Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon said economic conditions would “tighten meaningfully from here” and the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike rates beyond 4.5-4.75% if it does not see real changes in behavior.
OBSERVATION – “Behavior” = lowered spending by people.
Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio warned that because of persistent inflation, there will be more price increases in 2023 amid ongoing challenges that are hampering the food industry.
“We’ve already increased the prices that we were expecting this year, but I’m predicting that next year inflation will continue, and as a consequence [we] will have other rounds of price increases,” Patricio said in an interview with CNN Business on Monday.
MORE RELATED - The United States Department of Agriculture’s latest Food Price Outlook forecasts that all food on a year-over-year basis will see 9.5 to 10.5% inflation by end-of-year (EOY) 2022. The USDA forecasts food prices by EOY 2023 to increase between 3 and 4%.
OBSERVATION – Patricio saw the tomato shortage building in kalifornia and acted first. However, much of the rest of the food industry wasn’t so lucky.
The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed Wednesday.
The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 22 basis points to 7.16% for the week ended Oct. 21 while the MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 1.7% from a week earlier. Mortgage application activity is at its slowest pace since 1997.
The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2.
OBSERVATION – I’ve pointed this out before, the Fed chair considers the housing market to be ‘collateral damage’ in his war against inflation.
Invasion of Illegals -
Seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border have set a record in FY2022, according to the latest statistics released by the agency. While CBP’s latest monthly operational update for the border reported that fentanyl seizures dropped 19% from August to September, the total amount of fentanyl intercepted by federal authorities in FY2022 surpassed the amounts in FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021.
According to CBP’s statistics on the total pounds of drug seizures by the thousands, 14.1k of fentanyl was seized in FY2022 at the southwest border alone. Examining overall CBP statistics, including coastal/interior, the northern border and southwest border, that number jumps to 14.7k, compared to 11.2k in FY2021, 4.8k in FY2020 and 2.8k in FY2019.
OBSERVATION - biden’s policies are literally killing Americans. The associated crime is desired by him as well – Hegelian dialect at work.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Last night Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was swatted for the sixth time since August.
In the Portland/Seattle Antifia occupied zones, the leftists have become increasingly violent in regards to setting up counter protests to ‘protect’ so called family friendly drag events and to try to silence feminist speakers who are against transgenderism. Transgenderism support has generated the largest support by Antifa et al of most topics lately in those strongholds.
OBSERVATION – While unlikely to generate nation-wide protests, this does keep them in the forefront and in the eyes of like-minded brainwashed masses in colleges and universitites as being a valid ‘movement’ still.
Violence by Antifa et al is expanding on college campuses, rising to levels not seen since the Berkeley scrums of 2017. Any conservative campus speaker / group are facing increased violent leftist turnout. A recent example is the cancellation of an event organized by student organization affiliate Turning Point USA at UC Davis (aka People’s Republic of Davis) and featured Stephen Davis. It was canceled because of a brawl between about 100 protesters and counterprotesters led to pepper spray being used, barricades being knocked down and traffic cones being removed.
OBSERVATION – IMHO, these are recruiting and practice forums for Antifa in order to keep their teeth sharp and identify potential new members for entry into its core elements. Election year politics seem to be a good explosive mix on leftist campuses this fall.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Elon Musk informs bankers that he intends to close the Twitter deal on Friday — Bloomberg
OBSERVATION – Break out the popcorn. . . ..
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats set the bar low, but low enough as Fetterman crashes and burns in last night’s debate. Looks like a senate seat pickup for republicans is pretty much secured.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The recent revelation of the Ohio-classa SSBN (submarine with ballistic nuclear missiles), which surfaced in the Arabian Sea has caused eyebrows to raise. Normally secretive because these subs carry 24 Trident II ballistic missiles, each of which can carry 10 warheads at a maximum, which in total gives the vessel an ammunition supply of 240 strategic nuclear warheads.
This action in the midst of a renewed nuclear threat by Russia was most likely a reminder that the US has nuclear teeth as well and counter strikes can come from just about any quadrant.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.
********
All is not happy with putin’s warlords. Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has slammed Russia’s ‘weak’ attacks on Ukraine in the latest show of high profile dissent from one of Vladimir Putin’s biggest cheerleaders. The colonel general ordered Kremlin troops to ‘wipe out Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth’ in a chilling video message on Telegram This rant comes after a HIMARS strike on one of his barracks that killed at least 40 and wounded 60 of his fighters.
Meanwhile Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Russian tycoon behind the mercenary group Wagner, personally told Putin that his military chiefs are mismanaging the war, U.S. officials said.
According to the U.S. intelligence report that has been circulating in Washington, Prigozhin has expressed his view that the Russian Defense Ministry relies too much on Wagner and is not giving the mercenary group sufficient money and resources to fulfill its mission in the conflict, the people who read the report said.
Since the war started, Prigozhin has used Defense Minister Shoigu and top uniformed generals as his foils, positioning himself as a no-holds-barred leader able to show results on the battlefield in Ukraine.
It’s unclear if Prigozhin is primarily focused on wresting more influence within the Russian defense establishment or if he harbors greater political ambitions for himself or those close to him.
OBSERVATION – Dangerous power politics in the Kremlin. Prigozhin has the ears of ultranationalist elements in Russia and his partnership of sorts with Kadyrov represents a very serious danger to putin. I wonder when the Russian general staff is going to start pushing back stronger.
NUKE WATCH -
The nuclear rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine has increased, with each side claiming the other is preparing for a radiological attack using what is called a “dirty bomb”. Both sides have stated that they will not use either dirty bombs or nuclear weapons.
It must be noted that both Russia and Ukraine have warned of possible nuclear attack for months and nothing has come of it. Strategically, it makes no sense for Russia to launch a nuclear attack, however Russia has badly miscalculated the entire war. It is not beyond reason they would miscalculate again.
Russia has notified the U.S. that its annual nuclear exercise has begun and that it will include launches of nuclear capable missiles starting Wednesday, two U.S. officials said. – CBS
Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator says that Russian forces were performing secret work at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
“If Russia were to employ nuclear weapons or a dirty bomb, there would be consequences, but again, I’m not going to go into details,” says Pentagon Pres Sec
Municipal authorities in St. Petersburg announced the creation of a new draft list of safe zones for use in the event of a “natural” or” man-made” emergency. The list identifies seven administrative districts of the city located a distance from the city center as “safe districts” to be used in evacuation measures. NOTE – This could be taken a couple of ways - propaganda or an actual/real prepartion for a kinetic response from NATO for actions taken in Ukraine, or a possible WMD attack by Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia proper.
Logistics –
- Putin, facing military production delays and mounting losses, urged his government to cut through bureaucracy to crank out enough weapons and supplies to feed the war in Ukraine. The Russian military’s shortfalls in the eight-month war have been so pronounced that Putin had to create a structure to try to address them. On Tuesday, he chaired a new committee designed to accelerate the production and delivery of weapons and supplies for Russian troops, stressing the need to “gain higher tempo in all areas”.
Economic Impact -
- The effort to fill personnel shortages on the front continues to cause personnel shortages in domestic Russian industries such as transportation, limiting production.
- Putin called his government to “speed up” decision-making and manufacturing of military equipment
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue in the south and east of the country. Heavy fighting continues east and south of Bakhmut and near Kreminna.
Russian shelling was intensive in several areas yesterday and overnight including in and around Dnipro, Nikopol, Soledar, Bakhmut, Kreminna and north of Kherson. Sporadic shelling continues in many of the other impacted regions.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia launched a small ground attack on the border northeast of Kharkiv city. It was repulsed.
Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian army liberated another seven settlements in northern Donetsk, eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblast, pushing the front line further east towards the strategic Russian-occupied city of Svatove.
Heavy battles south of Svatove. The Russian forward posts in Kovalivka and Novovodyane under increasing Ukraine pressure. These towns are key to the encirclement of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More Russian assaults on the Bakhmut and Donetsk portions of the front. No gains reported. Wagner mercenaries struggling to regain the momentum at Bakhmut after being pushed back at several location.
Crimean front ———
Analysts are noting evidence that Russian troops are preparing to defend the city of Kherson and are not fully withdrawing from the north of Kherson Oblast.
Limited action in the Kherson Oblast, with scattered Russian artillery strikes.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR…
Russian Territory -—
Follow-up on yesterday’s report of rail sabotage. On 24 October 2022, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region announced that an explosive device had damaged the railway near the village of Novozybkovo, approximately 15km from the Russia-Belarus border. The line is the main rail link between Russia and southern Belarus.
The Russian anti-war group ‘Stop the Wagons’ (STW) claimed responsibility for the incident. This is at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June.
This is part of a wider trend of dissident attacks against railways in both Russian and Belarus. The Russia military primarily relies on rail transport for deploying forces to Ukraine, but with a network extending to over 33,000km, largely transiting isolated areas, the system is extremely challenging to secure against physical threats.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
Explosion at “regional television company” in RUS occupied Melitopol this morning, assumed to be the work of UKR partisans.
OUTLOOK ——
Watching the Ukraine offensives in the east and south. In the east, progress towards Svatove is getting close to breaking thru the Russian line of defense west of the city and that break through could happen as soon as by the weekend.
Kherson is a different matter. Between Ukranian OPSEC and Russian propaganda its hard to decern the near term actions. Though currently relatively static, advances can suddenly happen as we’ve seen recently. Looking more and more like Russia is trying to pull Ukraine into a meat grinder by trying to hold Kherson. We’ll see how smart Ukraine is to that tactic and whether or not Russians want to make it their Melitipol.
Nuclear rhetoric is slowing a bit but where there’s smoke, there is often fire. Unprovoked nuke strike by Russia on Ukraine is still low. “Dirty bomb” charges could permit (in their mind) Russia to justify a nuke strike. Way too many ‘what if’s’ at this point, but if they do drop a nuke, it will be without warning to minimize NATO/Ukrainian response.
Belarus -
Latest info I’ve seen has Russian forces in training areas in the western half of the country. Most likely being trained by Belarus given that Russia has stripped its training bases of experienced soldiers to fill the leadership vacuums in Ukraine.
Oil and gas workers on Norway’s offshore platforms are reporting sightings of unknown UAVs. Norway’s working thesis is that they’re controlled from vessels or submarines nearby. At least 7 Russians have been arrested in Norway with drones.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Tens of thousands of ethnic Serb protestors took to the streets following the announcement of a recount of votes in Bosnia’s Serb-run administrative region, Republika Srpska. Incumbent Bosnian Serb politician Milorad Dodik claimed victory in this month’s general elections, but irregularities at polling stations and claims by opposition candidate Jelena Trivic that votes had been rigged forced a recount by the Bosnian election commission.
OBSERVATION – Serbs are continuing to not play nice in the region. Some view this as a possible parallel to the early beginnings of a separatist movement that hit Ukraine in 2007, resulting in the civil war over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Iran -
Protests have continued throughout the country and are spiking today. Protest gathering by doctors and dentists in Tehran, to mark the 40th day of Mahsa Amini’s death, but also likely over anger at the abduction by government enforcers of Fatemeh Mashhadi.
Lethal force by IRGC elements have only made matters worse, inflaming the locals and increasing protest numbers.
Two members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards militia were shot dead by gunmen in the city of “Zahedan” in southeastern Iran
OBSERVATION – Iranian response to protestors has so far increased govt resentment and increased numbers protesting. The attack on the IRGC suggests that an incipient insurgency is forming.