Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Wuhan virus -

The WHO has added BA.4 and BA.5 to its monitoring list because of their “additional mutations that need to be further studied to understand their impact on immune escape potential,”
OBSERVATION - Trying to find a variant that they can use to instill fear back into the sheeple.
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Economy -

The US inflation numbers were released yesterday and they were worse than predicted. Inflation YoY grew to 8.5%. With 8.5% YoY inflation, REAL average hourly earnings growth fell to -3% YoY.
And with The Fed intent on extinguishing their part of the inflation, Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate rose to 5.14%.

OBSERVATION - According to some number crunching, the Fed should have its rates somewhere in the 11% range to “combat” this level of inflation. Pundants just don’t see any end to these high levels, and some predicting even worse.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Even nature knows he’s gone over the coocoo’s nest. A bird pooped on Biden’s shoulder during his speech in Iowa, during his speech in Menlo, Iowa on 4/12/2022.
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Domestic Terror -

NYPD is searching for Frank James , suspect in a shooting on a NY subway yesterday. The attack injured more than 20 people including 10 who were wounded by gunfire. After setting off a smoke device, he fired about 33 rounds before his gun jammed. Most wounded appeared to have been hit below the waist and in the legs.

It has come out that James was on the FBI’s terror watch list until 2019 and as recently as of a couple hours ago still had active twitter and FB pages where his posts showed an affiliation to Malcom X and Elijah Mohammad as well as other Black Nationalist causes.

OBSERVATION - Media and officials have been steering away from calling this a ‘terror’ incident, likely because it goes against the narrative of the biggest threat are white nationalists. Now the latest two mass attacks, this and the shootout in Sacramento, have been conducted by blacks.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The nuclear-powered USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are located in international waters off South Korea’s southeastern coast. They are conducting bilateral operations with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force, said Lt. Mark Langford, a U.S. Navy spokesperson, The Hill reported.
“Routine bilateral operations like this one, reassure our allies and partners of the U.S. commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific,”

OBSERVATION - This also sends a message to NK the it shouldn’t think about getting too froggy.

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China -

Taiwan issued its first war handbook advising citizens how to respond in the wake of an attack, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises fears of a Chinese incursion at home.
OBSERVATION - Both China and Tawian are looking closely at the Russia/Ukraine war to glean lessons learned for their eventual conflict. Probably for China, the importance of consoliated chain of command and logistics and Taiwan the capability of small hunter/killer teams along with tactical flexibility and adaptability.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -

Japan has been asked to join AUKUS, will work together in areas such as electronic ware ware & hypersonic technology.
OBSERVATION - China’s expansionism has had a negative impact by pushing Japan to become more military alert and prepared. It has the potential to become a significant regional military force and current events have it moving in that direction. Counter China alliances are growing and strengthening as well.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war. We are 49 DAYS into a 48 HOUR operations to capture the country.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin has reportedly conducted a mass purge of 150 Russian intelligence agents, according to numerous media outlets. The move came Monday night against agents of the FSB intelligence service — the successor to the KGB, the Daily Mail reported. Some of the officers were also arrested.
OBSERVATION - Report are that these officers supported the now clearly inaccurate assessment that Russia would win the war in a cake walk, in just a matter of a couple days.

Putin says Ukraine peace/ceasefire talks are in dead-end — RIA

Secretary of State Antony Blinken: The US has ‘credible information’ Russia may use ‘chemical agents’ against Ukrainian troops and civilians. US unable to confirm or deny the earlier reported chemical attack in Maripol.

Economic Impacts -
- Argentina and Chile halt lithium supplies to Russia. The country is thus able to obtain this raw material only from Bolivia

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukrainian forces captured Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch and close Putin ally. He is the Godfather to Putin’s children. He was caught hiding in the ‘woods’. Rumors are that he may be a part of a future POW exchange with Russia.

Western/NATO countries are increasing the type and quantities of weapon systems, arms and munitions being shipped to Ukraine. So far Russia has failed to interdict the flow of these materials.

The defenders of Maripol are still holding on, but there are reports of surrenders as the fighters are running out of ammunition and food.

Russia is jamming GPS satellite signals in Ukraine, US Space Force says

Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. It doesn’t appear that Russian has not yet committed new units or units previously withdrawn from other axes to the offensive.
Those operations being conducted in eastern Ukraine resulted in Russian assaults being turned back with no territorial gains. Very heavy artillery and bombing of the region by Russians.

Kyiv front -
More mass graves of civilian being discovered in Bucha.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Intense bombing and artillery strikes continue to hit Kharkiv and surrounding suburbs and towns overnight. In part the artillery is designed to keep Ukrainan forces pinned and allow units to pass by to the east of Khariv. This has not stopped Ukrainan strikes on Russian convoys, inflicting a lot of armor and vehicle losses.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. There are reports that Ukrainan elements are surrendering as ammo and food have runout. The mayor says that there are 100K needing evacuation.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces did not make any advances against Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast and continued to attempt to improve their defensive positions. Ukraine continues to push Russian forces southward from Kryvyi Rlh towards Kherson.

Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.

OUTLOOK -
Some observers are noting that the tempo and intensity of Russian attacks in Eastern Ukraine have dropped recently. One could consider these attacks probing or reconnaissance in force operations that will eventually lead to the anticipated big Russian offensive.

Hard to evaluate are the difficulties Russia is having reconstituting northern force and readying them to reenter combat. There have been a couple bases identified in Russia just east of Khariv that are set up to try to accomplish this. Other logistical constipation appears to be still ongoing.

Maripol is set to fall within days now. Controlled territory and ammo/personnel supples are shrinking for defenders.
The race is on for Ukraine to integrate these into their forces before Russian is ready to kickoff their offensive.

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Europe / NATO General -

Croatia has told 24 Russian embassy staff to leave over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “brutal aggression”

The U.S. says it will not object to Slovakia’s potential transfer of MiG jets to Ukraine

Poland arrests a Russian national for espionage

Sweden announced it will apply for NATO membership in June. Finland also expected to announce membership application this summer as well.

Presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are heading to Kyiv to meet president Zelenskyy.

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Pakistan -

Tempered peace following recent parliamentary ouster of now former PM.
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Israel -

Israeli army says 20 Palestinians suspected of terror activity arrested in overnight raids in the West Bank. Biggest of these raids was against terrorists in Jenin.
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Wuhan virus -

The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it is extending the nationwide mask requirement for public transit for 15 days as it monitors an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was extending the order, which was set to expire on April 18, until May 3 to allow more time to study the BA.2 omicron subvariant that is now responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Excuses, excuses.

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Economy -

FLASHBACK - In July 2021, White House press secretary Jen Psaki argued that the spike in inflation would not be a permanent adjustment, telling reporters “that these impacts are temporary.”
NOW - The producer price index for final demand increased 1.4% after rising 0.9% in February, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through March, the PPI jumped 11.2%, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010, after advancing 10.3% in February.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 1.1% and accelerating 10.6% year-on-year.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Jim Bullard warns that it’s “fantasy” to think the Fed can tackle inflation through rising interest rates. “There’s a bit of a fantasy, I think, in current policy in central banks [hiking interest rates back to “neutral.”] Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation… Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough, it doesn’t look like,” Bullard said.
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Invasion of Illegals -

In efforts to increase security, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Department of Public Safety to conduct “enhanced searches” of Mexican tractor trailers last week at checkpoints coming from the Mexican border. On Monday, Mexican truckers began parking at border crossings on the Mexico-Texas border to protest against the enhanced searches. Mexican truckers say they already go through federal security checkpoints and shouldn’t need additional screenings by Texas law enforcement officials.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Grand Rapids PD officer killed a black man after violently resisting arrest & trying to take the cop’s taser, has a conviction for assaulting a pregnant woman in Kentwood County. Antifa & the left are calling for violence as revenge for his death.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Elon Musk putting forth a hostile takeover of Twitter with a 43 billion dollar offer. More liberal heads exploding.
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Domestic Terror -

NYPD reports that Frank James has been arrested. Terrorism charges are currently included. His rap sheet includes 9 previous arrests in NY alone. Social media posts show him to be a Black Nationalism supporter.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -

Last month, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force commissioned JS Kumano, the first of its new Mogami-class multi-role frigates. The warship was built at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facility in Tamano and is the first of a planned class of 22 ships that are destined to replace the fleet’s aging Abukuma-class destroyer escorts and Asagiri-class light destroyers. The Mogami-class program is the latest in a series of projects that are upgrading the capabilities of the JMSDF, which is one of the largest navies in the world.

OBSERVATION - Japan cant match the volume of Chinese naval growth, but can offset some of that through high tech multi role capable ships carrying more bang for the buck.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now in the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia is threatening air strikes on Kyiv as retribution for what it claims is Ukraine’s sabotage efforts and missile attacks on Russian territories.
“If cases of sabotage and shelling continue, Russian armed forces will strike the place where such decisions are being made,” the statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense read. “Kyiv will be one of the targets, despite the fact that Russia has so far avoided bombing the capital.”

OBSERVATION - The hypocrisy is evident here by Russia. Kyiv has been directly attacked, 208 residential buildings, 46 schools, and 17 hospitals damaged since the start of the war Feb. 24, according to statistics released by the Kyiv Regional Administration.

Russian heavy weapons including missile systems have been seen moving towards the border with Finland, hours after Russia warned its northern neighbor against joining NATO.
An unconfirmed video uploaded last night appears to show two Russian coastal defense missile systems moving along a road on the Russian side of the border that leads to Helsinki. The missile systems are thought to be the K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense system, designed to take out surface ships up to and including aircraft carrier battle groups.

OBSERVATION - This is just saber rattling, Russia does’t have the capability to attack Finland with the bulk of their active forces engaged in Ukraine. If Russia tries to use these missiles to close off sea access would result in a major response from NATO Baltic countries in addition to Finland.

Deputy secretary of Russian Security council Medvedev threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in Baltic Sea region in case of Finland and Sweden join NATO.
The Lithuanian Defense Minister called the Russian threat strange, stressing that the international community is well aware that Russian nuclear weapons are already in the Kaliningrad Oblast.

RUMINT -
Allegedly Putin has directed that Ukrainan cities that refuse to capitulate to the invasion be razed to the ground in order to get the operation done before May 10th.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Observed in the Moscow metro, military recruitment posters have appeared offering “short-term contracts”.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russia’s flagship Black Sea missile cruiser has been “seriously damaged” and its crew forced to evacuate, Russian state media says. Slava-Class Cruiser “Moskva” Flag-Ship of the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet reportedly had an on board fire that set off an explosion of ammunition. This forced the ship to be abandoned and there is no reported ‘cause’ for the fire. The Moskva is an old, Soviet-era missile cruiser but it has been the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2000.

This is where the commonality of the Russian and Ukraine stores. Ukraine claims they struck the ship with 2 Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles, causing the fire and ammo explosion that resulted in the ship to initially list and then sink with 500+ aboard. The missile strike was reportedly aided through the use of a TB-2 drone. Russia denies the missile strike story and the sinking, claiming the ship is under tow back to port.

Sources in Romania and Turkey say Turkish ships rescued 54 soldiers from the water before it sunk.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby just said on CNN that the warship Moskva is still afloat but clearly damaged. He said it remains unclear whether the damage was caused by Ukraine missile attack.

OBSERVATION - BLUF, this is a BIG hit to the Russian Black Sea fleet. Either way, it is gone as a military asset in this campaign.

After the landing ship was sunk and another damaged at a captured Ukrainan port, Russia has kept their fleet resources close to Crimean ports. People have pointed out that this ship was well armed to defend against this kind of attack, those defenses only work when the systems are activated and ship ready for combat. Thoughts that they were not in range of Ukraine assets may have lulled them into a false sense of security.

OTOH - if there was no missile attack, then this is another instance of poor personnel and equipment readiness now being exposed in the Russian navy.
This will further make any Russian amphibious operation to seize Odesa even less likely in the short term- especially if the damage was caused by an Ukraine missile strike (which I think happened). The Moskva is the second major Russian ship known to have been severely damaged since the invasion began.

The US had a Global Haw UAV is up all the time over the Black Sea during this period, so better news may leak out.

Russia claims two Ukrainian helicopters entered Russian airspace and conducted airstrikes on buildings in village of Klimovo in the Bryansk Oblast. Other reports say it was an artillery attack. There is a Russian military vehicle depot just to the SW of Klimovo. If it’s being used it would be an obvious Ukrainian target.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported. See Russian threats to resume missile/bombing attacks.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces took control of Velyka Komyshuvakha just outside of Hrushuvkha (SW of Izyum). Expanding their position in the area will allow Russia to continue their attempted advances South and South East.

OBSERVATION - This area has been the hardest fought for by Russia recently. It provides the most direct axis of advance to try to form the northern ‘pincer’ to cut off the Donbas region. However, Russian forces have suffered significant losses in the several weeks worth of fighting there.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Reports that a significant portion of the Ukrainan marine brigade was able to exfiltrate out of its pocket and join up with the Azoz units. Some of the marines reportedly surrendered.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian artillery hit a major Russian fuel/ammo dump at the Kherson airport overnight.

Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.

OUTLOOK -

Russia is leading its punch and I expect Kyiv to start receiving indiscriminate missile and bombing attacks.

Russia will try to exploit its limited success south of Izyum, forming the northern pincer of the Donbas offensive. Expect tempo in eastern Ukraine to increase as units from the north are refitted and thrown into the battle.

With US/NATO taking a more active role in training Ukrainian military on some of the newer equipment being provided may push Putin to risk a more direct intervention against that aid.

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Belarus -

Secretary of security council of Belarus warns of provocations from Ukraine to get Belarus involved in the war
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Europe / NATO General -

Sweden and Finland’s prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join NATO.
Finland is expected to move first. PM Marin says she won’t give a timetable but “it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion”

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Israel -

The Islamic Jihad Movement: We call on our people everywhere to declare a general mobilization and engage the enemy

Israeli army says troops arrested 18 Palestinians suspected of involvement in terror activities during overnight raids in the West Bank

OBSERVATION - Tensions remain high as the potential for a new infatatda looms.
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Another wild week.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

Mortgage rates hit 5% this week, the highest level since February 2011, continuing a stunning ascent since the start of 2022. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped more than a quarter-point in a week from 4.72% last week, according to Freddie Mac. In the last five weeks alone, the rate has climbed 1.24 percentage points and is 1.89 points higher than at the end of last year.

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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s removal of Title 42 measures guarantees an uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

At the news conference Wednesday, Abbott and Nuevo León Gov. Samuel Alejandro García Sepúlveda signed the memorandum that calls for the two states to “work cooperatively” to stem the flow of migrants into Texas, reduce cartel activity and restore border crossings to a faster pace.

Mexican drug cartels have conducted more than 9,000 drone flights into U.S. airspace in the last year to surveil American law enforcement and security operations in the southern border region, a senior Homeland Security official told Judicial Watch this week. The drones are observing federal, state, county, and city agencies near the Mexican border, including the U.S. Border Patrol, Texas Department of Public Safety, Texas National Guard, county sheriffs and local police. The Border Patrol, which operates under Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has captured about a dozen of the drones, and accessed the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’ (UAVs) guidance and memory systems to gain intelligence information, according to a high-level official at the agency.

OBSERVATION - This is closing in on complete cartel control of portions of the border - made worse as biden prepares to overwhelm the border patrol with the removal of Title 42 restrictions.

To be confirmed but reportedly from a source in the CBP, the Border Patrol will terminate the CDC Title 42 COVID-19 expulsions for certain categories of migrants effective immediately. Single adult migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Colombia are no longer subject to speedy expulsions along some parts of the southern border.
OBSERVATION - Not sure on the validity or even if they can terminate it early. However, given biden proclivity to ignore law, he may well just order the BP to act as if the Title 42 restrictions have been lifted.

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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Biden looked lost again Thursday after finishing a speech on the nation’s ongoing supply chain crisis when he turned around and stuck his hand out as if to shake hands - but there was no one else on stage.
The blunder from 79-year-old Biden comes days after he looked disoriented during an event that saw former President Barack Obama visit the White House for the first time since leaving office.
Immediately after ending the speech in Greensboro, North Carolina. with the signoff ‘God bless you all,’ footage from the event shows Biden turning to his right and seemingly saying something to the empty space behind him before miming a handshake - suggesting the president did not know he was alone at the podium.
In the footage, the aging Democrat proceeds to frantically look around the stage with a bewildered look on his face, before beginning to wander aimlessly around the crowded auditorium.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.

17 LA gangs are aggressively targeting upper class LA suburbs for robbery.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

Musk’s purchase of Twitter stocks and now offering to by it for about 40 billion has caused leftist heads to explode all week.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

Years of presidential debates tainted by left-wing biases have finally prompted the Republican National Committee to take action. On Thursday, the RNC voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), the organization that hosts the general election presidential debates every four years.
OBSERVATION - SMH, why did it take so long for the GOP to figure this out.

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Domestic Terror - BLUE

NYC subway shooter, Frank James, was ordered to be held without bail yesterday.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*

US soldiers of the 1st battalion of 109 artillery regiment w/ 155 mm M109A6 Paladin howitzers and other fighting equipment arrived in Lithuania.

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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates the NK is preparing for a likely military parade in Pyongyang to mark the “Day of the Sun” on April 15

Still close watch on either a nuclear test or ICBM launch to celebrate the day as well.

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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia says it has hit a plant making anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. It came hours after it admitted that the Moskva warship had sunk following an explosion on Wednesday.
Ukraine says it hit the Russian cruiser in the Black Sea with missiles - Russia has said a fire on board caused the sinking

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that should Sweden and Finland join NATO then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in an exclave in the heart of Europe

OBSERVATION - Continuation of nuclear threats against these countries, essentially justifying their concerns and pushing them even closer to NATO.

Personnel Issues -
- Russia has reportedly lost its fortieth high-ranking military officer since the start of the war in Ukraine. Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuev was killed on the frontline, local reports said. Mezhuev commanded the Sevastopol Red Banner regiment under the 1st guards motor rifle division, which moved from Kyiv to the battle-scarred east in recent days. Ukraine says Russia has now lost a total of seven generals and 33 colonels
- Russia sustained more KIA in the first 2-3 days in Ukraine than it has in 6 years in Syria.

Equipment Issues -
The loss of the “Moskva” in perspective. It goes beyond the impact to the prestige of Russia.
Russia admitted yesterday that the Moskva sank while being towed to Crimea. Its loss to Ukrainan Neptune missiles is not the end of the war, but it does seriously impact the Russian war effort.

1. The loss of the Moskva will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct cruise missile strikes. The Moskva’s main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centers and airfields. It had the capability to launch as many as 16 Kalibr missiles at one time. These Russian strikes have been effective but limited in number compared to airstrikes and ground-launched cruise missiles throughout the invasion, and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow.

2. Moskva was vital to the air defense grid in the South & Black Sea. She carried 64 S-300’s, and was basically a massive area denial asset for Ukrainian aviation in the south. “Moskva” had a top radar system crucial for anti-air support for the fleet. This protected the western side of Crimea from Ukrainan air incursions (drone, fighters and helicopters). Other vessels could fill some of the air defense roles of the “Moskva” but not as effectively. The withdrawal of other Russian vessels to roughly 80 nautical miles from the Ukraine coast is a tacit admission that Ukraine did hit the “Moskva” with a missile. This will create an even bigger gap in the air defenses that Ukraine could exploit.

3. The chance of a Russian amphibious assault as part of a move to capture/isolate Odesa or even link up with Russian forces in Moldovan Transnistria, has become close to nil. The naval situation combined with the tactical ground combat would make such an operation a death trap.

BTW, the “Moskva” was involved in the infamous “Snake Island” incident in the early days of the Russian invasion.

One last equipment/force issue. There are and estimated 65 - 80 Russian BTG’s in all of Ukraine right now focused on south and east per a US defense official. Recall that Russia had amassed about 120 BTG’s prior to invasion. If this estimate is accurate, that is a loss of 33 - 54% of raw BTG combat power. NOTE - these numbers may well be disproportionally distributed. However, using another metric, a BTG contains an average of 10 tanks per BTG - approximately 1200 tanks at the start of the war. Over 500 tanks have been confirmed to have been destroyed since the start of hostilities - loss of 41% of combat power.

Economic Hits -
- Moody’s said Russia may be in default because it tried to service its dollar bonds in rubles, which would be one of the starkest consequences to date of Moscow’s exclusion from the Western financial system since President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 24th show warm with rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Pentagon disclosed today that a group of Ukrainian troops in the US for military education when Russia invaded received training on not only armed, unmanned Switchblade aircraft but also coastal defense surface drones US approved for transfer yesterday. Significant action in the Khariv sector, see below.

Go to the following link to see the current depiction of the ground situation in Ukraine. Pay attention to the absence of any RED in northern Ukraine and think back to what was there just a couple weeks ago. The change in the tactical situation is stark.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
Russia struck Kyiv with at least 3 cruse missiles overnight, targeting a factory area in the outskirts. Russia has threatened to increase attacks if Ukraine attacks Russian territory.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant to report

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
This is probably the most active and fluid area of fighting. Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Russians recently have made some minor gains south of Izium. This is building to be the main axis of attack by Russia forces, creating the northern pincer to cut off Donbas region from the rest of Ukraine.

However Ukrainian counter-attacks are threatening to cut-off the Russian salient. To the east of Izyum, the Russians have been pushed back approximately 30 km, almost to the strategic town of Borova. Borova was occupied by Russian forces a couple of days ago. See the map link above.

The salient also permits Ukrainian artillery to strike all the Russian supply routes to Izyum. With the rearguard under Ukrainian fire control, the Russian vanguard in this battlefront sector is cut off.

NOTE - Though consisting of smaller towns, not major cities encountered in the north (other than Khariv), the roads are proportionally smaller and narrow as well. Increasing spring rains are denying a lot of off road movements, making Russian forces essentially road bound once again, a flaw that condemned the attacks in the north. Russia is losing control of the road network as well. Ukrainian Special Forces reportedly destroyed a bridge near Izyum while a Russian military convoy was crossing it on April 13. All the major roads to Izyum are controlled by Ukraine except one: the crossing of the Oskil’s’ke reservoir at Borova.

So between Ukraine SOF and artillery interdiction, Russian farces are facing a similar if not worse situation the faced earlier in the north.

Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and its outskirts and seek to fix Ukrainian forces in place.

Attempts to advance on the southern most segment of the front, south of Izium were repulsed.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. It is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out. I know i’ve said this almost daily for the past several weeks and yet they hold on and continue to inflict strong damage to Russian forces assaulting the city.

Separatist/Russian forces made little to no gains in the sector to join forces trying to come down out of the north from Izyum-Slovyansk

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast have slowed as Russian forces continued efforts to improve their defensive positions in Kherson. Russia launched a heavy artillery / missile attack on Melitopol overnight.

Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian interdictions -
Belgorod Russia is again unsettled: local residents heard the sounds of explosions, the air defense system is in action. From posted videos it appears that two ADA missiles were fired, but at no targets and were self destructed. A large fire in Belgorod. Local authorities urge calm and say everything is under control. Not clear if the fire was due to Ukrainian action or other.
OBSERVATION - Belgorod is one of the main bases being used to refit and rearm Russian forces pulled out of northern Ukraine.

OUTLOOK -

Russia may be accelerating the reinforcement of units in the Donbas region as this amorphous May 9th deadline closes in. Already it appears that Russia is making the same mistakes in overextending it forces and leaving resupply lines highly vulnerable it did in the north. The longer Russia delays the kickoff of its offensive, the more it finds itself behind the power curve as Ukraine is operating in a faster and more efficient manner to Russian threats.

Deteriorating weather conditions will degrade Russian fix wing close air support and they will have to risk attack helicopters for any CAS operations in eastern Ukraine.

More and more arms and munitions, including more modern systems, continue to pour into Ukraine and Russia appears powerless to stem the tide. Russia may counter by resuming attacks on Kyiv.

Ukrainan pressure on the western flank of the Crimea front will continue to freeze Russian forces in place and out of the Donbas fight. Ukrainan positioning threatens supply lines coming out of Crimea proper should Russia pull out too many troops and Ukraine gains a break through. The loss of the Moskva is a severe psychological blow to Russia and boost to Ukraine. It does make the western coast of Crimea more vulnerable and could grant Ukraine more maneuver room to push Russian forces from Kherson and further threaten the Crimean front.

Ukraine still holds out in Mariupol, and their dogged determination is amazing, how much longer they can hold out is uncertain.

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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

Russia’s TASS agency is reporting that the Belarusians have shot down a drone coming from Lithuanian airspace. However smugglers use multi copters to smuggle cigs in to Lithuania.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

Smolensk officials and local activists have brought heavy machinery to the Polish military cemetery in Katyn and threatened to destroy it in response to the “demolition of Soviet monuments in Poland”. They’ve also started a petition to resolve the “Katyn issue” once and for all.
Poland has been removing monuments, but not cemeteries, to the Red Army, which attacked it on 17th September 1939, in support of invading Nazi Germany.
Katyn is where the Soviets executed tens of thousands of Polish officers and intellectuals in 1939, back when Moscow and the Nazis were on the same side, and then lied about it for 50 years.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Russian threats against these countries are less vocal/open. Russia may be very wary of hitting any of these nations (particularly Poland) conventionally due to Article 5 and the sorry state of its military forces in and around Ukraine.

Today North Macedonia declared additional six, in total eleven in a period of one month, Russian diplomats as persona non grata for breaching the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.

Israeli warplanes launched air raids on the positions of pro-Assad forces near the city of Qatana and the Scientific Research Center in Jamraya in Damascus countryside. This is the second strike in Syria by Israel this week.

Israeli forces stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque after a number of people bearing Hamas and PA flags began firing fireworks and throwing stones forced Israeli police to intervene in the situation. The Israeli police spokesperson in Jerusalem says police waited until after the prayer was over and worshippers scattered to respond. Over 100 injured.

OBSERVATION - This is a very serious incident. Al-Aqsa is a tripwire. Be on watch for rocket attacks coming form Gaza into S Israel. Thing could escalate very quickly and have already.

Egyptian security officials reportedly have been conducting mediation between Israel and Hamas over the last several hours after this morning in an attempt to stop escalation.

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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday that a preliminary deal had been reached with a foreign bank over frozen funds belonging to the Islamic Republic.

Esmail Ghaani, who heads Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, said Thursday the Islamic Republic will confront Israel “wherever it feels necessary,” according to a report by the semi-official Nour News agency.
OBSERVATION - This is in the context of last month’s attack on Kurdish Iraq and the alleged ‘mossad’ base there.
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Morning all. I’ve noted that this post has grown in size for when I first started. Almost to a ponderous level, and in part I apologize. However, two mitigating factors. First I’ve progressed into tapping more informational sources outside the MSN and general internet fodder - which often is a couple days behind the power curve if credible at all. Second, there is a lot more stuff happing since wuhan hit the fan in late 2019. We will never return to the old normal, we need to cast normalcy bias aside and be alert to this turbulent ‘new normal’.
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Economy -
Biden will nominate Michael Barr to be vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve after the failed nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin. In a letter to Biden obtained by the New Yorker, Raskin blamed “relentless attacks by special interests,” who opposed her view that climate change could pose a threat to economic stability, for derailing her nomination.

OBSERVATION - Republicans are correctly placing more scrutiny on biden’s Fed nominees. In a twist, yes, climate change does pose a threat to economic stability - by crashing our petrochemical industry and leaving the country with a weaken power grid dependent on unreliable source, just for a couple items.

The Biden administration announced Friday it would resume leasing sales for oil and gas drilling on federal land, while also sharply reducing the acreage available for leases, and charging higher royalties on the oil and gas produced.
The Interior Department said roughly 144,000 acres would soon be available through oil/gas lease sales, an apparent 80% reduction from the land that had been under previous evaluation for leasing.

OBSERVATION - Take a big note, 80% reduction in availability. This is nothing but a PR headline to lull sheeple into thinking the administration if doing something.

A fertilizer supply shock is imminent for US farmers as CF Industries Holdings, Inc. warned Thursday that rail shipments of crop nutrients would be reduced to top agricultural states, which couldn’t come at the worst time as the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is underway.
The world’s largest fertilizer company said Union Pacific had hit it with railroad-mandated shipping reductions that would impact nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate shipments to Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and California. Union Pacific told CF Industries without advance notice to reduce the volume of private cars on its railroad immediately. This means CF Industries had to decrease shipments by a whopping 20% to stay compliant. Sounds like the UP is backed up on shipments. As a result, they are restricting “private car” shipments (i.e. not UP equipment) by almost 20%.

OBSERVATION - This is hitting farming at the worst possible moment. Fertilizer is already in high demand and planting is underway. Some would say this is part of a govt conspiracy to further attack food production. IDK if that is true, but timing is everything.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration’s open border policies have let in more than 1.5 million illegal immigrants, enough to double the size of Dallas or San Diego, according to a former immigration judge.
In an analysis of data from the Department of Homeland Security, the new report said that during his presidency so far, President Joe Biden has knowingly released 756,000 migrants encountered at the border, another 146,000 illegal youths to guardians inside the United States, and an estimated 620,000 “got-aways.”

According to a court document filed Friday in the federal lawsuit between Texas and Missouri against the administration of President Joe Biden, Customs and Border Protection agents encountered more than 221,000 illegal migrants along the southern border in March.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced Thursday that two more Mexican governors signed agreements to boost border security measures in exchange for a halt to increased vehicle inspections at ports of entry. The latest agreements bring the number to three Mexican states so far that have come forward and signed on to Abbott’s demands that Texas not bear the burden of illegal migration alone.
Meantime, more busses from Texas arrived in DC.

The White House has quietly resumed its after-dark charter flights of underage migrants to a suburban airport north of New York City — after a Post expose led to their suspension last year.
The Post watched as a group of migrant teens got off an Avelo Airlines plane that arrived at the Westchester County Airport near White Plains at 9:25 p.m. Thursday. The group then boarded three waiting buses that drove off about 50 minutes later.
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Biden / Harris watch -

CNN poll show biden’s approval numbers now below those of Trump at the same time of their terms. NOTE- Trump’s polls were skewed to make him look bad, and biden’s to look good. Apparently CNN’s pollsters couldn’t find enough special sauce to keep biden above trump.
A new Quinnipiac University national poll shows that only 33% of Americans approve of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president, while 54% disapprove.

OBSERVATION - Those polls are historically been skewed in favor of democrats, it is an ill omen for midterms.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Far-left protesters in Grand Rapids call for the end of the police & the need for a revolution. They’re angry about the police shooting of Patrick Lyoya, a suspect who wrestled with a cop & then tried to take his taser.

OBSERVATION - I’m seeing more rumblings of this sort as BLM/Antifa try to use ‘police violence’ to stir up emotions and generate unrest leading to riots - in the form of 2019. More violence directed towards conservatives on college campuses too when a non-narrative speaker shows up.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
NOTE - I erroneously accepted information that the Moskva was equipped with Kalibr surface-to-surface missiles. The Moskva was in fact equipped to fire Bazalt anti-ship missiles. This is not to say that those anti-ship missiles couldn’t have been adapted for land targeting. Its been documented that Russia adapted another anti-ship system, the K-300P Bastion-P coastal defense missile system launching strikes against ground targets in Ukraine. No data if Russia adapted the Bazalt system to a similar dual role.

Russian fighter jets from bases in Belarus have approached Polish air space multiple times each day since the invasion . “The current situation brings more tension - more risk - and it’s definitely more serious for the whole NATO community.”

RUMINT -
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to formally declare war on Ukraine in response to the sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin mass conscription as well as economic war actions.

OBSERVATION - This would be an interesting development, however such a mass conscription would not affect the battle for months AND there would have to be combat ready equipment for these conscript to use.

Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army Studies, Conversion and Disarmament, warned: “Onboard the Moskva could be nuclear warheads — two units,” igniting a interwebs firestorm.
US intelligence does not believe the ship was carrying nuclear arms, CNN reported Friday, citing two senior US officials. Those officials said that western intelligence has been monitoring the battlefield for unusual movements of nuclear weapons and has not seen any.

Still, the fear of the ship’s weaponry comes weeks after defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his country’s nuclear weapons on high alert following the start of the invasion. The Moskva came out of maintenance shortly before the war and US ‘monitoring’ of activity may have missed the installation. Additionally, two Russian jets violated Swedish air space CARRYING nuclear weapons just a month ago.
However, solid evidence is still lacking.

Logistics -
- Latest confirmed loss of Russian equipment losses are over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles during the first 50 days of combat. 700 tanks is more than a 50% loss assuming 120 BTGs at start of war.
- 40 older BM-21 MLRS units observed on train headed to Ukraine from eastern Russia. Noted that these were a much shorter range version than currently in use.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- MORE ON THE MOSKVA -
- Commander of the Moskva, Captain 1st rank Anton Kuprin, was killed during the fire on the cruiser. He is the latest of a long list of senior Russian officers killed so far in the conflict.
- One aspect is what happened to the approximately 500 other sailers on the ship? Yesterday, the relatives of the doomed crew of Russia’s Black Sea flagship Moskva defied Russian censors to hold an unofficial memorial today, as Ukraine claimed that all 510 servicemen onboard died - including the ship’s captain. The presence of a naval general officer and Orthodox priest indicates the seriousness of the memorial.
- No Russian statement or photos regarding survivors. The only info on survivors come from other sources. US intelligence claimed to have ‘observed’ Russian sailors evacuating the ship in lifeboats as the vessel burned. Initial reports that a Turkish vessel rescued 54 sailors. The silence suggests that the loss of life was high, likely in the hundreds.
- In other naval losses, yesterday it was made known that the commander of the “Saratov” amphibious assault ship of the Russia’n Black Sea Fleet, Captain 2nd Rank Vladimir Khromchenkov, died in the hospital. Ship was hit by Tochka-U missile strike in port of Berdyansk that set off a ammunition being carried by the vessel. Another Senior Russian officer added to the long list.
- Latest estimates of 20,000 Russian soldiers having been killed in the conflict (and that’s likely conservative) with an approximate estimate of 50,000-60,000 wounded. When compared to the estimated 180K - 200K soldiers Russia started out with shows the tremendous hit to the army.

Economic Impacts -
- Sanctions prohibiting procurement of key materials for Russian factories.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Repeated, almost non-stop aerial alerts across Ukraine over night. Explosions reported in Kyiv, Poltava, Oleksandria, Dnipro, Lviv, some as result of air defence. Russia continues to launch missiles, including Kalibr from ships of Black Sea

Troll level 10 - The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the Russian navy that the Black Sea straits “ are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out.”

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
1 killed, several wounded as result of Russian missile strikes in Kyiv this morning. Russia’s defense ministry says the missile strikes targeted a military plant in the capital Kyiv

Kyiv’s police chief says 900 civilians have been found dead in towns around the capital after Russian troops left, most of them fatally shot, police said Friday, an indication that many people were “simply executed.”

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Kharkiv 1 killed, 18 wounded as result of heavy shelling this morning.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not make any territorial advances

Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove on April 15. Several Ukrainian sources (including civilian administrators in Kharkiv and Izyum) stated Russian forces continued to deploy to the Izyum axis,

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders.
Russia used Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers for the first time in this war to strike Ukrainian positions at the Azovstal plant Mariupol city. These dropping the BIG conventional bombs. Seems Russia is in a hurry to close up the Maripol operation.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Damage in Mykolaiv as result of Russian army shelling today. Russian ministry of Defense reports missile strikes at plants in Mykolaiv

Russian forces conducted limited attacks on Ukrainian positions west of Kherson and continued to shell Mykolayiv but did not make any advances.

Western Ukraine -
3 missile strikes today in Kviv region.

OUTLOOK -

Increased missile and bombing campaign against Kyiv, western Ukraine and Dombas regions. Russia pushing to put new BTGs together for the Donbas offensive but likely not able to kick it off yet.

Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive operations in the Donbas region, feeding reinforcements into the fight as they become available rather than gathering reinforcements and replacements for a more coordinated and coherent offensive. This is evidence that Russia hasn’t learned its lesson from up north and are throwing units into to battle piecemeal. I’m watching the push south out of Izyum as where Russia will launch its Donbas offensive in earnest. However, it is a high risk axis that exposes its supply to Ukrainan interdiction.

Russian Black Sea Fleet will be altering it operations out of respect/fear of Ukraine’s limited but effective Neptune Anti ship systems.

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Europe / NATO General -

Portuguese Army deploying a Combined Armored Infantry element to Romania, augmented by AD and SOF.
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Pakistan -
Different sources confirm the Pakistani jet fighters carried out late night simultaneous strikes in the Afghanistan north-eastern Kunar and south-eastern Khost provinces, respectively, in “Chogam” and “Passa mela” remote areas sharing a close border with Pakistan. heavy artillery shelling is still ongoing. Looks like Pakistani military is really going at it against TTP militant bases in Afghanistan.

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Blessed Resurrection morning to all.
Jesus is risen, he is risen indeed
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Wuhan virus -

On MSNBC on Wednesday, Anthony Fauci revealed the truth about lockdowns: they are a form of theatre intended to terrify people into getting vaccines.
Fauci openly complimented the Communist government’s tactics when asked about the developing lockdown hellscape in China by host Andrea Mitchell.
According to Fauci, “China has a number of problems, two of which are that the complete lockdown, which was their approach, a strictest lockdown you’d never be able to implement in the United States. Although that prevents the spread of infection, I remember early on they were saying, and I think accurately, they were doing better than anyone else.”
“You use lockdowns to get people vaccinated so that when you open up, you won’t have a surge of infections,” Fauci remarked.
“Because you’re dealing with an immunologically naive population of the virus because they’ve not been exposed because of the lockdown,” Fauci stated, completely ignoring the concept of natural immunity.

OBSERVATION - He approves of China’s methods - See China below for those ‘methods’

Doctors in the U.K., Spain, Scotland, and the U.S. are observing a big spike in “severe hepatitis cases” in children A string of severe hepatitis cases in children has doctors across both sides of the pond spooked. Dozens of children in the UK and Europe, as well as some in the U.S., have come down with symptoms of hepatitis not currently explained by known causes. The WHO said it was notified on April 5 of 10 severe acute hepatitis cases in children under the age of 10 in central Scotland. There was no known cause. Three days later, the number of cases in children in the United Kingdom jumped to 74. Three confirmed cases have also been reported in children aged 22 months to 13 years old in Spain, and less than five cases have been reported in Ireland.

Theories for the outbreak include the resurgence of an existing but usually quieter germ, complications of covid-19, or even the arrival of a novel or mutated virus. The leading theory is that the unusual spike of hepatitis in young children is caused by adenovirus. This common virus can cause cold-like symptoms, fever, sore throat, bronchitis, pneumonia, and diarrhea.While it can cause a range of mild to severe illnesses, the virus rarely causes severe hepatitis in healthy people, the CDC said. Another theory is that, after two years of significantly reduced social interaction worldwide, human beings lack the robust immunity necessary to fight off rather common viruses.

OBSERVATION - This illness is currently not linked to the jab as the ages of the children involved are too young for the mandated jab. It does point to the blindness of the medical community to include other problems that would develop due to a lockdown.
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Economy -

Mike Wade, the executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition, said. Wade said the coalition is expecting around 800,000 acres of farmland in California to sit idle this year. A number, he said, is unprecedented.
“We’re looking potentially at 40 to 45% of farmland having little or no water at all,”

OBSERVATION - Stock up now because it is only going to get worse. Most Americans have no clue how food gets to their table.
Personally, I saw that even the cheap Walmart loaves of bread had shot up by 40 cents. Consider all the wheat based products and how those prices will increase as well. Kalifornia is a huge source of rice - expect this prices to go up as well. Doomers are predicting a food crisis by this fall, and with the current drought conditions as well as poor harvests in other countries we import food in the off season from, they may be close to being correct.
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Invasion of Illegals -
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) awarded a massive sum to a nonprofit for migrant detention at six hotels, but $17 million “went largely unused,” while the agency oddly accepted an unsolicited contract proposal while not considering others, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
ICE has been using housing for detained family units since 2001, an inspector general report says. Amid a migrant surge in March 2021 and the anticipation of more to come, the federal agency entered into a $86.9 million contract with the nonprofit Endeavors for a six-month period. The money was for 1,239 beds and other hotel services in Texas and Arizona.

OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey. Leftist organizations gettin rich.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

BLM/Antifa protest last night in Grand Rapids MI were borderline peaceful. Armed marchers did block streets and threaten drivers with guns. Protestors also attempted to disrupt a Kid Rock concert, but were stopped by pollice.

OBSERVATION - The greater presence of guns at these ‘minor’ protests suggests that if something big does kick off, police and citizens will be under gunfire, not just fireworks.
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China -

Conditions have gotten so bad in Shanghai that Chinese state media feels obliged to acknowledge it. Despair going into suicides, near rioting over no food after weeks of lockdown. Videos have emerged on social media showing citizens and foreigners being locked inside their homes by Chinese police using bicycle locks and padlocks. “This is the biggest, richest, most international city of China and people are starving, without medicine and without freedom,” reported a Western journalist in Shanghai. Protests have erupted in the streets, with people shouting at the police, “We are starving.”

China’s has begun training patrols in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, with its stealth J-20 jets Global Times reported.
The latest move came after US Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kenneth Wilsbach revealed in mid-March that US F-35 stealth fighter jets had a close encounter with China’s J-20 stealth fighter jets over the East China Sea.
The Global Times reported that the J-20 has been conducting combat patrols in the East China Sea and alert patrols in the South China Sea after switching to domestically made engines.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Kim Jong Un watched a test-firing of two “new-type tactical guided weapons” which strengthened the country’s “tactical nuclear operation,” state media said Sunday morning. The timing coincides with events celebrating the anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, last Friday.

N.Korea’s projectiles flew 110km at top altitude of 25km, speed of Mach 4 according to South Korean military sources.

OBSERVATION - Analysts note this missile is very similar to the Russian Iskander , is a mobile short range ballistic missile system. It has the potential of carrying a tactical nuclear warhead.

Experts believe this test is a sign that North Korea is planning to test a compact nuclear weapon soon - in other words, a tactical nuclear weapon. Until NK can make the components small enough and reliable, these new missiles are stuck being conventionally armed.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russian state television declared Friday night that its conflict in Ukraine can now “safely be called World War III.” The remarks on the Russian state sponsored station come a day after Russia’s flagship, the Moskva, sank in the Black Sea.
OBSERVATION - This notes a significant change in the propaganda Russian state news sources is putting out - going from a ‘special operation ‘ to “WW3 is a big jump that some speculate may laying the foundation for a national war effort mobilization.

The Russian defence ministry has published images showing what it says is the crew of the warship Moskva - the first time any sailors from the ship have been seen since its sinking.. A large group of sailors is seen on parade in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, met by Navy Commander-in-Chief Adm Nikolay Yevmenov.
OBSERVATION - A lot of discussion whether or not this is a valid photo or not. Total number of sailors shown are less than 150 out the crew of 500, creating more questions than answers.

RUMINT -
Still within the realms of RUMINT, but does have some confirmation. Reports that FSB arrested the commander of the Black Sea fleet, vice admiral Igor Ossipov. Obviously for the bad weather and an accidental fire on board of Moskva. 8th general out of commission by action in this war.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Another Russian general killed in Ukraine. Major General Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guards Combined Arms Army headquartered in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, was buried in Saint Petersburg. 8th CAA is part of Southern Military District. This makes 8 flag officers killed in the 53 days of combat!

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Repeated, almost non-stop aerial alerts across Ukraine over night. Explosions reported in Kyiv, Poltava, Oleksandria, Dnipro, Lviv, some as result of air defense. Russia continues to launch missiles, including Kalibr from ships of Black Sea

There continue to be reports from both sides that the Russian Phase 2 offensive for Donbas is days away. One source in Donbas reportedly said this: “The head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration believes that the Russian troops do not start the offensive because of bad weather.” Meanwhile a regional administrator in Barvinkove and separately, the head of Donetsk regional military administrations, urged evacuations as ‘Russia is set to launch a large-scale military operation in a few days.’

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
More missile attacks against industrial areas surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight..

Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not make any territorial advances.

Large battle broke out at Lozove village on the border between Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, just south of Brovary.

Ukrainian army reportedly counter-attack between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders.
Russia demanded that defenders of Mariupol surrender Sunday . Ukraine forces ignored the demand. President Zelensky said that the “Elimination of the last Ukrainian forces in Mariupol will end talks with Russia.”

In Mariupol, Russia’s troops tell locals they’ll close the town completely, ban movement within it to filtrate 100% of male residents. Some men will be forced to join RU troops, others to clear the rubble, the rest will be detained - aide to Mariupol mayor Petro Andryishchenko
NOTE - The term “filtrate” there means arrests and even executing combat aged males, as seen in northern Ukraine. Russia continues to use heavy bombers dropping 2000 lb and larger ordnance on Mariupol - and not necessarily just military targets.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Situation remained largely static, though there appeared to be some probing attacks in the Liubymivka-Novozlatopil region near the separatist held western portion of the Donbas region.

Satellite imagery of Sebastopol harbor show that over a half dozen Russian combat vessels have returned to port in the days after the sinking of the Moskva.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK -
Weather conditions continue to be unfavorable for the Russian Donbas offensive over the next week. If (and a big IF) MAY 9TH is a driving date for the offensive, they are losing time. It gives them some more time to get reorganized, but on the flip side it gives the Ukrainan the same opportunity to prepare and for soil conditions for armor maneuver to degrade further. Still indicators that it will kick off in about a week.

Mariupol continues to be a thorn in Russia’s plans to not only create a land bridge to Crimea, but kick off its Dombas offensive. There are some reports indicating that Russian forces have already been disengaged from Mariupol and sent both north and towards Kherson because so few UAF remain in Mariupol, they don’t need a large force anymore. As Ive noted, the defense of Mariupol has tied up (and damaged) a lot of Russian forces needed to create the southern ‘pincer’ for the Donbas assault with a goal of encircling and defeating main Ukraine forces in the region. Some observers and analysts think Russia is almost ready with the preparations for Phase 2, and are waiting and see if they’re waiting for the ‘symbolic’ fall of Mariupol to begin, or whether they’ll begin without it.

The deployment of forces towards Kherson reflect concerns that Ukraine may be able to recapture it and move to cut off key resupply routes out of Crimea necessary for the southern portion of the Donbas offensive.

Terrain conditions for the Russian attack are deteriorating quickly as spring runoff combined with rains are making much of the terrain unsuitable for maneuver. This will channelized Russia forces to the road network - again. Also, the Ukrainian forces in the region are their most seasoned and best equipped. This is their home court and most likely have all the road networks dialed in for interdicting artillery fires. They have developed success using drones to spot the fires in as well, making the Russian advance costly to men and machines.

Continued losses of Russian senior commanders will not help already screwed up command and control of forces for this more complex offensive. So far it looks like Russia has fallen back into the list of failures it suffered in the north.
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Europe / NATO General -

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who met with Putin this past week in Moscow — the first European leader to do so since the invasion began Feb. 24 — said the Russian president is “in his own war logic” on Ukraine

A huge queue of trucks has formed on the Poland-Belarus border as Russian and Belarussian drivers try to leave the EU following a sanctions deadline. In the run-up to the Saturday deadline, the line extended to 80km (60 miles), with some stuck for up to 33 hours. The EU has banned lorries from Russia and Belarus - except those carrying medicine, mail or petroleum products - from entering or staying in the bloc.

Italy closes its ports to Russian ships starting April 17. Under EU sanctions, Russian ships anchored in Italian ports will have to leave after completing their commercial activity. The ban will also apply to ships that changed their flag after Feb. 24 to circumvent sanctions.
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Israel -

Intensive ISF presence at Damascus Gate area. Large numbers of Palestinian worshippers will pray in Al Aqsa Mosque after Iftar time. Large crowds of Palestinians expected to gather at Damascus Gate. Confrontations/clashes are expected.

Hamas official Zaher Jabarin was on Al-Maydeen news a few hours ago saying if Israel crossed redlines established by the group, the battle would not be on the Gaza and West Bank fronts only. Zaher is hinting Israel could see assaults from Lebanon, Syria and possibly other places.
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Black Swans -

Just another thing on our radar screens. A very active sun spot region is in the process of rotating to our side of the sun and could make things interesting. Newly numbered Active Region 2994 tossed a X1.1 solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME). It was not directed at the earth, but location of the source region will become more favorable against Earth in the days ahead as the region turns into geoeffective position.

X - class flares are the largest category the sun produces and can cause significant damage to the electrical grid. The standard was the Carrington event - approximately a X46 event that created a magnetic storm where the auroras were seen near the equator and electrical current absorbed by the telegraph wires and railroads caused fires. More recent, 1984 Quebec event - about an X15 IIRC, took down most of a power grid. There is no good answer on how prepared our grid is for a big monster CME event. Some dismiss the concerns, others more pessimistic.

NOTE - This is NOT the same effect as a nuclear EMP event, many will get the two confused.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Placing this here for good reason - see end. David Beasley, the head of the United Nations World Food Programme, said Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people around the planet — until Russia invaded the country, that is. Beasley further said “(There) is $430 trillion worth of wealth around the world today. There’s no reason a single child should be dying from hunger, much less going to bed hungry.”
OBSERVATION - Control food, control people. GGR has to confiscate this ‘wealth’ right? (sarc)
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Economy -

Economists are noting that the dollar is at risk losing its status as the reserve currency. After peaking at 73% of all currency transactions in 2001, the dollar has been in constant decline. The one thing that is preventing a collapse in the dollar is that no other currency is set to capture the world’s reserve currency title. Sanction war with Russia has caused other nations to utilize other currencies instead of the dollar to get around sanctions. China has been making moves to harm the dollar as well. It is in active talks with Saudi Arabia to price some of its oil purchases in yuan.

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Invasion of Illegals -

I have to post this again, just because of the magnitude of it. Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is preparing for a massive influx of up to 500,000 illegal immigrants monthly once the administration lifts the pandemic-era asylum limits, which is expected to take place on May 23.
DHS officials told reporters on Tuesday that the department is anticipating a worst-case scenario of 12,000 to 18,000 illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border every day, totaling up to 540,000 monthly.
OBSERVATION - Half a million per month - that’s 6 million for a year. All with hungry mouths, plethora of diseases and too much invested in spreading crime and drug trafficking.

Gov. Greg Abbott late Friday signed his fourth memorandum of understanding in three days with another Mexican governor as part of his commitment to secure Texas’ shared border with Mexico. Abbott met Friday with Tamaulipas Gov. Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca in Weslaco, Texas. They signed a memorandum of understanding designed to prevent illegal immigration from Mexico to Texas and improve the flow of commercial traffic across the international bridge.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

On Saturday night, Antifa and other far-left militants in Portland gathered for a vigil held for Patrick Lyoya, a black man who was fatally shot by a Grand Rapids officer earlier this month, and caused damage across the northern part of the city to small businesses as well as a Portland Police Bureau precinct. In posts made to Twitter, far-left activists called for “revenge” attacks and “solidarity action” against the police. On April 4, Lyoya was fatally shot in the head by a Grand Rapids, Michigan, police officer after he refused to comply with the cop’s commands, continually struggled against his arrest, and kept placing his hand on the officer’s taser gun.

OBSERVATION - this looks like an attempt to rally the leftists into another round of violence. Granted, it doesn’t take much for the BLM/Antifa elements in Portland to get up and burn something. Again - the disturbing trend to call for potentially lethal response.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Pressure building to have Kalifornia senator Feinstein forced from office due to all her marbles not there.

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Domestic Terror -

Pennsylvania authorities are asking the public for information regarding a device containing nuclear material used in construction.
Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection said the device, a portable nuclear gauge, is used in construction to “evaluate the properties of building and road-bed materials,” a press release read. But if the device is “damaged,” people in the vicinity could be exposed to harmful radiation.

OBSERVATION - The radioactive material will not create a nuclear bomb, but could be used for a small ‘dirty’ bomb. However, no evidence of a potential diversion for terror use yet.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now in the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Images out yesterday confirm the missile strike on the “Moskov”. In the images, the ship is listing to port and the damage and the active fire seems to originate in the amidships of the ship where the chimney is located and two of the six AK-630s are located. Two potential openings just above the water line are where some people suggest it is where the two missiles hit it.

Russian Baltic Fleet appears to be ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are being loaded with naval infantry vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea. With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating Sweden and Finland.
OBSERVATION - I can’t believe Russia / Putin would be foolish to start another conflict, but then if he is off his rocker, anything is possible. He has been making serious threats against them.

RUMINT -
Some analysts are assessing that the big attack of Russia in Donbas might not happen because the Kremlin beginning to really think and is afraid of possible failure at Donbas. One aspect is the weather because of heavy rain and overflowing of rivers vehicles cannot pass. Leaves are appearing and hinder the attack. Each day Ukraine gets more and more weapons and Russian forces have suffered huge losses and low morale.
OBSERVATION - Hard to judge if this assessment is very valid. It does agree with the big concerns over weather/terrain and the morale of the troops, but projecting that on Kremlin thinking may be projecting to much because the decision maker is Putin and he’s painted himself into a corner, needing some sort of military victory to call an end to fighting.

Economic Impacts -
- Moscow Mayor says the withdrawal of foreign companies from the capital has put 200,000 jobs at risk

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
To be better detailed under the Eastern Front (Khariv) discussion, it appears that Ukraine may have taken the Russian initiative for their Donbas offensive away from them by launching a preemptive offensive of their own.

Little to no word out of the Azovstal factory.

Heavy missile and air strikes overnight.

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
More missile attacks against industrial areas surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area has now become highly fluid and dynamic.

Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight.

It is appearing that the Ukranians have launched a preemptive offensive to hit Russian forces before they can get the pieces in place for their Donbas offensive. The Ukrainians are pushing on two axes to encircle the Russian forces in Izyum. One axis going east from Kharkiv cutting the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum. (I have noted this Russian weakness in previous posts) And another push in a northeastern direction on the eastern side of Izyum salient. Overstretched supply lines getting hammered again and threat of Ukrainian encirclement of Izyum. Just like in the north. Ukraine is preemptively hitting Russia before they can kick off their big offensive.

Izyum is important in that it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to forces in the Mariupol direction. This would enable the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbas.

Ukrainian military in counter-offensive in Kharkiv region. Liberated Bazalievka, Lebyazhe, partially Kutuzivka
Ukrainian army conducting offensive operation at Kutuzivka, Bairak, and east to Mala Rohan.

The link to the map depicts this action
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQktt2LXEAg4Z9x?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

East of Izyum - Ukrainian army counter-attacking between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East.

Map of battles for the east side of Izyum

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQjg3ZHX0AQRPvX?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

As with the fight in the north, I expect the situation to be very fluid over the near term.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Explosions were heard in Dnipro city, reportedly hit somewhere at outskirts Missile strikes in Pavlohrad and Synelnykove districts of Dnipropetrovsk region as well.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Situation remained largely static.
Heavy explosion reported in Kherson airport area

Russian forces are seeking to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations but remaining Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a final stand. It is being reported that the RuAF is dropping FAB-3000, FAB-5000 and FAB-9000J (3000kg, 5000kg And 9000kg respectively) bombs on the facility. Would coencide with footage of TU-22 heavy bombers airborne above the city earlier this morning. Little other word coming out of the area overnight.

Western Ukraine -
Russian missile strikes in L’viv targeted railway infrastructure, no casualties, there will be delays in schedule according to the head of Ukrainian railways, Oleksander Kamyshin
Maksym Kozytsky, the head of Lviv Oblast Military Administration, and Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi reported that missiles struck military facilities and a car tire service point, killing at least six people and wounding eight.

OUTLOOK -
Desperate last stand in Mariupol continues to tie up Russian forces it needs to kick off the southern pincer of the Donbas offensive. Uncertain how long the Ukrainan defenders can hold out, but they’ve lasted about 6 weeks so far. By the time the battle for the city is over, there will only be rubble of the city left and a very pyrrhic ‘victory’ for Russia.

More shocking is the developing Ukrainan offensive in the Khariv front. This is a clear case where the best defense is a good offense, and it appears Ukraine is offending. It has caught the Russians with, once again, a long and exposed logistic trail. It appears that Ukraine is further exploiting Russian low morale in addition to the supply issues of units redeploying to the area from northern Ukraine. Russian forces are increasingly attempting to leverage conscripts and proxy units in Izyum, indicating continuing challenges generating the forces necessary to encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. Russian units in the Izyum salient are in tough shape being chewed up badly and lack of reinforcement is not helping the matter.

If the Ukranians are able to collapse the Izyum salient, chances for a Russian victory in capturing the Donbas region start dropping to nil. Time is running out for favorable weather/soil conditions as well as the rumored May 9th deadline. At least a dozen BTGs are reportedly in the Izyum salient, a number Russian cant afford to lose if they want the Donbas.
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Israel -

Arab-Israeli Raam party ‘suspended’ its participation in the coalition government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
OBSERVATION - This will likely cause parliamentary elections as this small party is what gave Bennett his position. Note, hasn’t pulled their standing, so Bennett’s govt is hanging by a thread.

Situation in Israel and specifically Old Jerusalem and the Temple mount continue to be tense as Ramadan inspired moslem riots and terror attacks continue.

Islamic State on Sunday urged its supporters in Israel to launch additional terror attacks, the first such call since two deadly terror attacks were carried out last month by Arab Israelis thought to have been inspired by the jihadist group.

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Iraq -

The military operation was launched by Turkey against the Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn regions of the Federated Kurdistan Region continues on April 14th and has continued. TAF bombed Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn regions with warplanes and howitzers.
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Syria -

Sources report Russia halved salaries of the 5th Corps (created & funded by Moscow) in Syria. Now it’s 100$/month. Allegedly a consequence of Ukraine’s invasion.
OBSERVATION - This will trigger some losses and perhaps re affiliation of those forces to someone willing to pay better, like Iran.

After nearly week of Russian air activity over Syria, things have become very quiet on the Russian side again.
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Turkey -

See Iraq.
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Black Swans -

Active sunspot complex AR2993-94, which unleashed an X1-flare on April 17th, may be just the beginning. NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring another potentially large active region right behind it.

Trying to consolidate two days into to one.
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Wuhan virus -

U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Tampa said the CDC failed to follow the proper rule-making and failed to justify the decision. “The Court concludes that the Mask Mandate exceeds the CDC’s statutory authority and violates the procedures required for agency rulemaking under the APA,” Mizelle wrote in her opinion. “Accordingly, the Court vacates the Mandate and remands it to the CDC.”

OBSERVATION - Mixed signals if biden is going to appeal or not. The ruling was almost instantaneously implemented by the TSA. biden caveated any appeal based upon recommendation by the CDC

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Economy -

A combination of factors has sent corn futures in Chicago to the highest level in a decade as investors fret over dwindling supplies. Corn futures haven’t exceeded $8 a bushel since September 2012, following a devastating drought that damaged crops across the U.S. Midwest. Now supply risks return but for different reasons.
The global outlook for corn supplies has plunged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February. The war-torn country supplies a fifth of the world’s corn and could experience a 50% decline in output this year

U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest level in more than 13 years Monday as Russia’s war on Ukraine causes a global energy crunch and as forecasts called for cooler spring temperatures. Futures jumped 10% to trade as high as $8.05 per million British thermal units, the highest since September 2008. The jump builds on recent strength, with natural gas coming off five straight positive weeks. Prices later retreated slightly, with the contract ending the day 7.12% higher at $7.82.
OBSERVATION - With winter ending and warmer weather coming, the impacts of higher natural gas prices won’t be immediately on forefront due to decreasing demand. However, if they remain at record highs the bite will be big this coming winter.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Biden considering a delay in eliminating the Title 42 restrictions.
OBSERVATION - At this stage of the border failure, the maintenance of the Title 42 restrictions may not make any difference as a tsunami of illegals will hit the border anyway.

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Biden / Harris watch -

According to a new Trafalgar/Convention of States poll, 64% of likely American voters believe that President Joe Biden is compromised or conflicted in decisions involving China due to his family’s business dealings with Chinese companies.

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China -

Videos have emerged on social media revealing the violent response Chinese authorities are taking against residents who break COVID-19 lockdown rules imposed once again in Shanghai and other areas around the country. …residents are beginning to starve under the current lockdowns.

OBSERVATION - The lockdown has also shutdown one of China’s busiest ports, creating another massive shipping clog as vessels are stacked off shore waiting to be loaded and unloaded.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russia rejected an Orthodox Easter ceasefire brokered by the UN.

Russian forces started the long awaited Donbas offensive by attacking Ukrainian positions along the entire 300-mile (480km) front line in the eastern Donbas region. These attacks were preceded by an intensive artillery barrage(s) and airstrikes in a classical Russian big gun tactic. Some analysts who’ve been pretty spot on so far in this war indicate that Russia has rushed their preparations and execution of this offensive. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. This may be setting the stage for the same level of C& C and logistical failures experienced in the north.

Two main axis of attack are becoming clarified. One southwest from Izyum/Kreminna and the second from Donetsk City to the north even as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Many assess that even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.

Much discussion on how many BTGs Russia has available for this new offensive. From an estimated 120 BTGs at the start, US estimates 98 remain, about 80% and 22 of the 98 are still being refit/rebuilt outside of Ukraine. Of those 98, only From documented Russian equipment losses by tanks alone the BTGs would be at about 56%. By personnel loss estimates, 40,000 dead/wounded, 66%. So the raw number of BTGs remaining available may be functionally less due to losses.

Time will tell if the May 9th deadline is legit or supposed.

More details under Ukraine fronts below

RUMINT -
“Insiders” report putin is increasingly isolated and cornered by the failures of the Ukraine operation. While publically Moscow is rejecting the use of nukes against Ukraine, these insiders are saying that putin considers them to still be on the table for use.

Logistics -
- The US believes there are now 76 Russian battalion tactical groups in the Donbas region of Ukraine and in the country’s southeast. About 11 of those were added over the last several days. About a dozen of those inside Ukraine are trying to take Mariupol. Besides the 76 BTGs, there are about 22 BTGs north of Ukraine that are likely being resupplied and refitted, the official said.
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 3300 vehicles and other pieces of (heavy) military equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Tanks (521, of which destroyed: 263, damaged: 10, abandoned: 39, captured: 209)
- Russian MoD video showing Bal coastal defense systems launching Kh-35 missiles at targets in Ukraine. This is a subsonic anti-ship missile with, apparently, a land-attack mode. Kh-35 has an armour-penetrator warhead. It’s designed to cut through the steel of a ships hull. Its use has raised more questions of the availability of larger land attack systems.
- Noted in a previous report, Russian Grad-1s from 1950s are being shipped to the front. These are shorter ranged, smaller size rockets than are being currently used.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia still having difficulties getting people to sign up to fight in Ukraine. According to some reports Russia has suffered significant personnel losses. To boost their numbers they reportedly have dropped their standards and allow 3-month contracts but this has not brought in replacements.
- Interesting take on “Moskva” casualties in the UK Guardian. Looks like they estimate around 200 dead, 200 injured and 100 survived...
- Capt. 3rd rank Alexander Grigoryevich Chirva from Sevastopol. Commander of the large landing ship “Caesar Kunikov” has died of his wounds. “Caesar Kunikov” was one of the LSTs forced to flee Berdiansk when “Saratov” blew up.
- Colonel Mikhail Nagamov was reportedly the commander of an engineer-sapper regiment, was killed in Ukraine on April 13.

Economic Impacts -
- Greece has seized a Russian oil tanker off the island of Evia as part of European Union sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, the Greek coast guard said on Tuesday
- Sanctions have south down Russian military factories due to lack of parts.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Continued rain/showers over much of the next 10 day period. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukraine has weathered the first day+ of the Russian offensive. Tuesday’s clashes showed that Ukraine’s forces are still able to hold firm, and Russia made very little gains on the ground.

Russia made another demand that the defenders of Azovstal complex in Mariupol, surrender. However, the Russian deadline has passed as of this writing with no surrender.

Reminder that the situation has once again become very fluid and can change rapidly.

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Ukraine has been receiving increasingly amounts of military supplies and equipment, including more modern systems and Ukrainian personnel are receiving training on them. Further info that external support is coming in to get more Ukrainan aircraft in the sky.

Kyiv front -
Russian President Vladimir Putin bestowed an honorary title on the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade – the military unit accused of committing war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area has now become highly fluid and dynamic.

Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. Most of the Russia efforts are being concentrated between Izyum and Popasna to the south. Ukrainan forces continue to put pressure on the west flank of the Izyum salient in the vicinity of Khariv.

East of Izyum - Russian forces were able to gain control of the village of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, east of Izyum. Battles in this region are being hotly contested by Ukraine and control of some territory is locally seesawing. Russian artillery fire continued to target Popasna, Rubizhe, Lysychansk, and Severodonetsk and shell various settlements in Donetsk Oblast over the last 24 hours.

Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled attempted Russian advances into Avdiivka, Popasna, and Rubizhne on the night of April 18. Unconfirmed sources claimed that Russian troops entered Torske in order to encircle Ukrainian positions in Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Rubizhne,

The Ukrainian army’s 3rd Tank Brigade reportedly has reached the battlefield around Izium. The 3rd might be the first of Kyiv’s reserve armored formations to join the fight.

Map of battles for the east side of Izyum

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQjg3ZHX0AQRPvX?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

As with the fight in the north, I expect the situation to be very fluid over the near term.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russia gave the defenders at Azovstal complex in Mariupol a second order to surrender, deadline has already past. Unknown how much longer the defenders can hold out.
Russians dropped a bomb on the hospital near Azovstal. Local reports that the explosion was heard as far as 60 KM away. Several hundred civilians with children were reportedly taking refuge there.

It has been visually confirmed that in addition to Tu-22M “BACKFIRE” bombers, Tu-95 “BEAR” Long-Range Strategic Bombers are being used against Mariupol dropping massive bombs on the Azovstal facility. These planes are equipped to drop FAB-3000, FAB-5000 and FAB-9000J (3000kg, 5000kg And 9000kg respectively)

According to Mariupol town council, Russians are holding approx. 27,000 of Ukrainians in filtration camps now

Elsewhere, major artillery fires along the LOC but no significant Russia advances.

Crimea Front -
Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. Reports of a limited Russian counter attack outside Oleksandrivka.

Other reports that Russian units are concentrating in Polohy, central Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces may intend to stop Ukrainian counteroffensives in this area or could be planning a more ambitious advance to reach the N15 highway running east from Zaporizhia City.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Ukraine will likely give up some terrain, very begrudgingly, to Russian forces over the course of the next days/weeks but that so far Russia hasn’t shown that they’ve made any significant changes to tactics and logistics that stalled their attacks in the north. Weather conditions are deteriorating over the short term, limiting Russian maneuverability and flexibility on the battle field.

Russia has concentrated forces in eastern Ukraine and have kicked off their offensive. The biggest questions outstanding are have they learned from their tactical and logistical mistakes in the north. Evidence so far is that they haven’t and that they have failed to fully make logistical and C2 preparations necessary for another complex and demanding operation.

The fluid nature of the combat over the course of the next week will provide clarification of Russian goals/success and Ukrainan tenacity. So here’s my best educated guesses.

Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka. Those pushes will be hampered by deteriorating weather conditions that will further soften the ground and make many areas impassable - forcing Russian forces onto the local road network where they are exposed to being destroyed in pieces. It seems that with the Russian concentration of forces that they intend to eventually overwhelm Ukrainian defenses by numbers.

Russian forces will face logistical interdiction from Ukraine artillery and troops on the western side of the Izyum salient - probably one of the weakest parts of the offensive. This may force Russia to divert critical BTGs to defend against being cut off as happened in the north.

Rearming and supplying the Ukraine effort has ramped up significantly in the days prior to the start of the Russian offensive. How much and how quickly can these supplies get to the front line. So far it appears that the resupply efforts are still ahead of the power curve and that Russia is more focused on the Dombas operation than interdiction at the moment. They apparently don’t have the assets to do both. Rumblings of a reinforced/reborn Ukraine air force may be a game changer to further contest Russian air power. Longer range artillery assets and heavier firepower will come in good for Ukraine too.

The defense of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol will continue but for how long? When it falls it could free up to 12 BTGs to fight in other parts of the country according to a senior U.S. defense official. If the May 9th ‘deadline’ is valid, Russia will become increasingly desperate to force the surrender of its defenders and likely step up the use of heavy bombing ordinance and perhaps even the use of chemical munitions. The underground complex are reinforced concrete and deep/multilayered. The Russian ‘bunker busters’ may insufficient to take it out, raising the prospect for the deployment of chemical munitions. The defenders could hole up there and pop up to strike Russian elements unawares.
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Pakistan -
Tensions building between Pakistan and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Pakistan said on Sunday said incidents of its security forces being targeted in cross-border attacks from Afghanistan had risen significantly, and called on Taliban authorities to act against militants, a day after purported air strikes by Pakistan.
The incident has increased already simmering tensions between the neighbours. Taliban authorities on Saturday summoned Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul on Saturday to protest against the strikes. A local Taliban official and residents said the strikes were carried out by Pakistani aircraft inside Afghan airspace.
___________________________________

Israel -

1 rocket fired from the Gaza Strip was intercepted according to the IDF. In response, Israeli defense forces struck numerous positions and a weapon production facility belonging to Hamas

Al-Qassam Brigades confirmed they launched anti-air missiles at Israeli jets over the Gaza Strip and Hamas reportedly launched several anti-aircraft missiles (likely Strela-2s) at IDF aircraft. Doesn’t seem like any hit.

OBSERVATION - This appears to be the most significant attempt to deter IAF strikes with manpads missile systems. They have reportedly been used in the past, but not to this extent.

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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See Pakistan above.

While I haven’t noted it here, ISIS has been giving the Taliban a big head ache with numerous, almost daily, terror strikes throughout the country.
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