Replies

Morning all. I’ve noted that this post has grown in size for when I first started. Almost to a ponderous level, and in part I apologize. However, two mitigating factors. First I’ve progressed into tapping more informational sources outside the MSN and general internet fodder - which often is a couple days behind the power curve if credible at all. Second, there is a lot more stuff happing since wuhan hit the fan in late 2019. We will never return to the old normal, we need to cast normalcy bias aside and be alert to this turbulent ‘new normal’.
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Economy -
Biden will nominate Michael Barr to be vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve after the failed nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin. In a letter to Biden obtained by the New Yorker, Raskin blamed “relentless attacks by special interests,” who opposed her view that climate change could pose a threat to economic stability, for derailing her nomination.

OBSERVATION - Republicans are correctly placing more scrutiny on biden’s Fed nominees. In a twist, yes, climate change does pose a threat to economic stability - by crashing our petrochemical industry and leaving the country with a weaken power grid dependent on unreliable source, just for a couple items.

The Biden administration announced Friday it would resume leasing sales for oil and gas drilling on federal land, while also sharply reducing the acreage available for leases, and charging higher royalties on the oil and gas produced.
The Interior Department said roughly 144,000 acres would soon be available through oil/gas lease sales, an apparent 80% reduction from the land that had been under previous evaluation for leasing.

OBSERVATION - Take a big note, 80% reduction in availability. This is nothing but a PR headline to lull sheeple into thinking the administration if doing something.

A fertilizer supply shock is imminent for US farmers as CF Industries Holdings, Inc. warned Thursday that rail shipments of crop nutrients would be reduced to top agricultural states, which couldn’t come at the worst time as the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is underway.
The world’s largest fertilizer company said Union Pacific had hit it with railroad-mandated shipping reductions that would impact nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate shipments to Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and California. Union Pacific told CF Industries without advance notice to reduce the volume of private cars on its railroad immediately. This means CF Industries had to decrease shipments by a whopping 20% to stay compliant. Sounds like the UP is backed up on shipments. As a result, they are restricting “private car” shipments (i.e. not UP equipment) by almost 20%.

OBSERVATION - This is hitting farming at the worst possible moment. Fertilizer is already in high demand and planting is underway. Some would say this is part of a govt conspiracy to further attack food production. IDK if that is true, but timing is everything.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration’s open border policies have let in more than 1.5 million illegal immigrants, enough to double the size of Dallas or San Diego, according to a former immigration judge.
In an analysis of data from the Department of Homeland Security, the new report said that during his presidency so far, President Joe Biden has knowingly released 756,000 migrants encountered at the border, another 146,000 illegal youths to guardians inside the United States, and an estimated 620,000 “got-aways.”

According to a court document filed Friday in the federal lawsuit between Texas and Missouri against the administration of President Joe Biden, Customs and Border Protection agents encountered more than 221,000 illegal migrants along the southern border in March.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced Thursday that two more Mexican governors signed agreements to boost border security measures in exchange for a halt to increased vehicle inspections at ports of entry. The latest agreements bring the number to three Mexican states so far that have come forward and signed on to Abbott’s demands that Texas not bear the burden of illegal migration alone.
Meantime, more busses from Texas arrived in DC.

The White House has quietly resumed its after-dark charter flights of underage migrants to a suburban airport north of New York City — after a Post expose led to their suspension last year.
The Post watched as a group of migrant teens got off an Avelo Airlines plane that arrived at the Westchester County Airport near White Plains at 9:25 p.m. Thursday. The group then boarded three waiting buses that drove off about 50 minutes later.
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Biden / Harris watch -

CNN poll show biden’s approval numbers now below those of Trump at the same time of their terms. NOTE- Trump’s polls were skewed to make him look bad, and biden’s to look good. Apparently CNN’s pollsters couldn’t find enough special sauce to keep biden above trump.
A new Quinnipiac University national poll shows that only 33% of Americans approve of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president, while 54% disapprove.

OBSERVATION - Those polls are historically been skewed in favor of democrats, it is an ill omen for midterms.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Far-left protesters in Grand Rapids call for the end of the police & the need for a revolution. They’re angry about the police shooting of Patrick Lyoya, a suspect who wrestled with a cop & then tried to take his taser.

OBSERVATION - I’m seeing more rumblings of this sort as BLM/Antifa try to use ‘police violence’ to stir up emotions and generate unrest leading to riots - in the form of 2019. More violence directed towards conservatives on college campuses too when a non-narrative speaker shows up.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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NOTE - I erroneously accepted information that the Moskva was equipped with Kalibr surface-to-surface missiles. The Moskva was in fact equipped to fire Bazalt anti-ship missiles. This is not to say that those anti-ship missiles couldn’t have been adapted for land targeting. Its been documented that Russia adapted another anti-ship system, the K-300P Bastion-P coastal defense missile system launching strikes against ground targets in Ukraine. No data if Russia adapted the Bazalt system to a similar dual role.

Russian fighter jets from bases in Belarus have approached Polish air space multiple times each day since the invasion . “The current situation brings more tension - more risk - and it’s definitely more serious for the whole NATO community.”

RUMINT -
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to formally declare war on Ukraine in response to the sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin mass conscription as well as economic war actions.

OBSERVATION - This would be an interesting development, however such a mass conscription would not affect the battle for months AND there would have to be combat ready equipment for these conscript to use.

Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army Studies, Conversion and Disarmament, warned: “Onboard the Moskva could be nuclear warheads — two units,” igniting a interwebs firestorm.
US intelligence does not believe the ship was carrying nuclear arms, CNN reported Friday, citing two senior US officials. Those officials said that western intelligence has been monitoring the battlefield for unusual movements of nuclear weapons and has not seen any.

Still, the fear of the ship’s weaponry comes weeks after defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his country’s nuclear weapons on high alert following the start of the invasion. The Moskva came out of maintenance shortly before the war and US ‘monitoring’ of activity may have missed the installation. Additionally, two Russian jets violated Swedish air space CARRYING nuclear weapons just a month ago.
However, solid evidence is still lacking.

Logistics -
- Latest confirmed loss of Russian equipment losses are over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles during the first 50 days of combat. 700 tanks is more than a 50% loss assuming 120 BTGs at start of war.
- 40 older BM-21 MLRS units observed on train headed to Ukraine from eastern Russia. Noted that these were a much shorter range version than currently in use.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- MORE ON THE MOSKVA -
- Commander of the Moskva, Captain 1st rank Anton Kuprin, was killed during the fire on the cruiser. He is the latest of a long list of senior Russian officers killed so far in the conflict.
- One aspect is what happened to the approximately 500 other sailers on the ship? Yesterday, the relatives of the doomed crew of Russia’s Black Sea flagship Moskva defied Russian censors to hold an unofficial memorial today, as Ukraine claimed that all 510 servicemen onboard died - including the ship’s captain. The presence of a naval general officer and Orthodox priest indicates the seriousness of the memorial.
- No Russian statement or photos regarding survivors. The only info on survivors come from other sources. US intelligence claimed to have ‘observed’ Russian sailors evacuating the ship in lifeboats as the vessel burned. Initial reports that a Turkish vessel rescued 54 sailors. The silence suggests that the loss of life was high, likely in the hundreds.
- In other naval losses, yesterday it was made known that the commander of the “Saratov” amphibious assault ship of the Russia’n Black Sea Fleet, Captain 2nd Rank Vladimir Khromchenkov, died in the hospital. Ship was hit by Tochka-U missile strike in port of Berdyansk that set off a ammunition being carried by the vessel. Another Senior Russian officer added to the long list.
- Latest estimates of 20,000 Russian soldiers having been killed in the conflict (and that’s likely conservative) with an approximate estimate of 50,000-60,000 wounded. When compared to the estimated 180K - 200K soldiers Russia started out with shows the tremendous hit to the army.

Economic Impacts -
- Sanctions prohibiting procurement of key materials for Russian factories.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Repeated, almost non-stop aerial alerts across Ukraine over night. Explosions reported in Kyiv, Poltava, Oleksandria, Dnipro, Lviv, some as result of air defence. Russia continues to launch missiles, including Kalibr from ships of Black Sea

Troll level 10 - The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the Russian navy that the Black Sea straits “ are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out.”

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
1 killed, several wounded as result of Russian missile strikes in Kyiv this morning. Russia’s defense ministry says the missile strikes targeted a military plant in the capital Kyiv

Kyiv’s police chief says 900 civilians have been found dead in towns around the capital after Russian troops left, most of them fatally shot, police said Friday, an indication that many people were “simply executed.”

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Kharkiv 1 killed, 18 wounded as result of heavy shelling this morning.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not make any territorial advances

Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove on April 15. Several Ukrainian sources (including civilian administrators in Kharkiv and Izyum) stated Russian forces continued to deploy to the Izyum axis,

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders.
Russia used Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers for the first time in this war to strike Ukrainian positions at the Azovstal plant Mariupol city. These dropping the BIG conventional bombs. Seems Russia is in a hurry to close up the Maripol operation.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Damage in Mykolaiv as result of Russian army shelling today. Russian ministry of Defense reports missile strikes at plants in Mykolaiv

Russian forces conducted limited attacks on Ukrainian positions west of Kherson and continued to shell Mykolayiv but did not make any advances.

Western Ukraine -
3 missile strikes today in Kviv region.

OUTLOOK -

Increased missile and bombing campaign against Kyiv, western Ukraine and Dombas regions. Russia pushing to put new BTGs together for the Donbas offensive but likely not able to kick it off yet.

Maripol is set to fall within days now. Controlled territory and ammo/personnel supples are shrinking for defenders.
The race is on for Ukraine to integrate these into their forces before Russian is ready to kickoff their offensive.

Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive operations in the Donbas region, feeding reinforcements into the fight as they become available rather than gathering reinforcements and replacements for a more coordinated and coherent offensive. This is evidence that Russia hasn’t learned its lesson from up north and are throwing units into to battle piecemeal. I’m watching the push south out of Izyum as where Russia will launch its Donbas offensive in earnest. However, it is a high risk axis that exposes its supply to Ukrainan interdiction.

Russian Black Sea Fleet will be altering it operations out of respect/fear of Ukraine’s limited but effective Neptune Anti ship systems.

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Europe / NATO General -

Portuguese Army deploying a Combined Armored Infantry element to Romania, augmented by AD and SOF.
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Pakistan -
Different sources confirm the Pakistani jet fighters carried out late night simultaneous strikes in the Afghanistan north-eastern Kunar and south-eastern Khost provinces, respectively, in “Chogam” and “Passa mela” remote areas sharing a close border with Pakistan. heavy artillery shelling is still ongoing. Looks like Pakistani military is really going at it against TTP militant bases in Afghanistan.

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Blessed Resurrection morning to all.
Jesus is risen, he is risen indeed
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Wuhan virus -

On MSNBC on Wednesday, Anthony Fauci revealed the truth about lockdowns: they are a form of theatre intended to terrify people into getting vaccines.
Fauci openly complimented the Communist government’s tactics when asked about the developing lockdown hellscape in China by host Andrea Mitchell.
According to Fauci, “China has a number of problems, two of which are that the complete lockdown, which was their approach, a strictest lockdown you’d never be able to implement in the United States. Although that prevents the spread of infection, I remember early on they were saying, and I think accurately, they were doing better than anyone else.”
“You use lockdowns to get people vaccinated so that when you open up, you won’t have a surge of infections,” Fauci remarked.
“Because you’re dealing with an immunologically naive population of the virus because they’ve not been exposed because of the lockdown,” Fauci stated, completely ignoring the concept of natural immunity.

OBSERVATION - He approves of China’s methods - See China below for those ‘methods’

Doctors in the U.K., Spain, Scotland, and the U.S. are observing a big spike in “severe hepatitis cases” in children A string of severe hepatitis cases in children has doctors across both sides of the pond spooked. Dozens of children in the UK and Europe, as well as some in the U.S., have come down with symptoms of hepatitis not currently explained by known causes. The WHO said it was notified on April 5 of 10 severe acute hepatitis cases in children under the age of 10 in central Scotland. There was no known cause. Three days later, the number of cases in children in the United Kingdom jumped to 74. Three confirmed cases have also been reported in children aged 22 months to 13 years old in Spain, and less than five cases have been reported in Ireland.

Theories for the outbreak include the resurgence of an existing but usually quieter germ, complications of covid-19, or even the arrival of a novel or mutated virus. The leading theory is that the unusual spike of hepatitis in young children is caused by adenovirus. This common virus can cause cold-like symptoms, fever, sore throat, bronchitis, pneumonia, and diarrhea.While it can cause a range of mild to severe illnesses, the virus rarely causes severe hepatitis in healthy people, the CDC said. Another theory is that, after two years of significantly reduced social interaction worldwide, human beings lack the robust immunity necessary to fight off rather common viruses.

OBSERVATION - This illness is currently not linked to the jab as the ages of the children involved are too young for the mandated jab. It does point to the blindness of the medical community to include other problems that would develop due to a lockdown.
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Economy -

Mike Wade, the executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition, said. Wade said the coalition is expecting around 800,000 acres of farmland in California to sit idle this year. A number, he said, is unprecedented.
“We’re looking potentially at 40 to 45% of farmland having little or no water at all,”

OBSERVATION - Stock up now because it is only going to get worse. Most Americans have no clue how food gets to their table.
Personally, I saw that even the cheap Walmart loaves of bread had shot up by 40 cents. Consider all the wheat based products and how those prices will increase as well. Kalifornia is a huge source of rice - expect this prices to go up as well. Doomers are predicting a food crisis by this fall, and with the current drought conditions as well as poor harvests in other countries we import food in the off season from, they may be close to being correct.
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Invasion of Illegals -
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) awarded a massive sum to a nonprofit for migrant detention at six hotels, but $17 million “went largely unused,” while the agency oddly accepted an unsolicited contract proposal while not considering others, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
ICE has been using housing for detained family units since 2001, an inspector general report says. Amid a migrant surge in March 2021 and the anticipation of more to come, the federal agency entered into a $86.9 million contract with the nonprofit Endeavors for a six-month period. The money was for 1,239 beds and other hotel services in Texas and Arizona.

OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey. Leftist organizations gettin rich.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

BLM/Antifa protest last night in Grand Rapids MI were borderline peaceful. Armed marchers did block streets and threaten drivers with guns. Protestors also attempted to disrupt a Kid Rock concert, but were stopped by pollice.

OBSERVATION - The greater presence of guns at these ‘minor’ protests suggests that if something big does kick off, police and citizens will be under gunfire, not just fireworks.
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China -

Conditions have gotten so bad in Shanghai that Chinese state media feels obliged to acknowledge it. Despair going into suicides, near rioting over no food after weeks of lockdown. Videos have emerged on social media showing citizens and foreigners being locked inside their homes by Chinese police using bicycle locks and padlocks. “This is the biggest, richest, most international city of China and people are starving, without medicine and without freedom,” reported a Western journalist in Shanghai. Protests have erupted in the streets, with people shouting at the police, “We are starving.”

China’s has begun training patrols in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, with its stealth J-20 jets Global Times reported.
The latest move came after US Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kenneth Wilsbach revealed in mid-March that US F-35 stealth fighter jets had a close encounter with China’s J-20 stealth fighter jets over the East China Sea.
The Global Times reported that the J-20 has been conducting combat patrols in the East China Sea and alert patrols in the South China Sea after switching to domestically made engines.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Kim Jong Un watched a test-firing of two “new-type tactical guided weapons” which strengthened the country’s “tactical nuclear operation,” state media said Sunday morning. The timing coincides with events celebrating the anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, last Friday.

N.Korea’s projectiles flew 110km at top altitude of 25km, speed of Mach 4 according to South Korean military sources.

OBSERVATION - Analysts note this missile is very similar to the Russian Iskander , is a mobile short range ballistic missile system. It has the potential of carrying a tactical nuclear warhead.

Experts believe this test is a sign that North Korea is planning to test a compact nuclear weapon soon - in other words, a tactical nuclear weapon. Until NK can make the components small enough and reliable, these new missiles are stuck being conventionally armed.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian state television declared Friday night that its conflict in Ukraine can now “safely be called World War III.” The remarks on the Russian state sponsored station come a day after Russia’s flagship, the Moskva, sank in the Black Sea.
OBSERVATION - This notes a significant change in the propaganda Russian state news sources is putting out - going from a ‘special operation ‘ to “WW3 is a big jump that some speculate may laying the foundation for a national war effort mobilization.

The Russian defence ministry has published images showing what it says is the crew of the warship Moskva - the first time any sailors from the ship have been seen since its sinking.. A large group of sailors is seen on parade in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, met by Navy Commander-in-Chief Adm Nikolay Yevmenov.
OBSERVATION - A lot of discussion whether or not this is a valid photo or not. Total number of sailors shown are less than 150 out the crew of 500, creating more questions than answers.

RUMINT -
Still within the realms of RUMINT, but does have some confirmation. Reports that FSB arrested the commander of the Black Sea fleet, vice admiral Igor Ossipov. Obviously for the bad weather and an accidental fire on board of Moskva. 8th general out of commission by action in this war.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Another Russian general killed in Ukraine. Major General Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guards Combined Arms Army headquartered in Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast, was buried in Saint Petersburg. 8th CAA is part of Southern Military District. This makes 8 flag officers killed in the 53 days of combat!

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Repeated, almost non-stop aerial alerts across Ukraine over night. Explosions reported in Kyiv, Poltava, Oleksandria, Dnipro, Lviv, some as result of air defense. Russia continues to launch missiles, including Kalibr from ships of Black Sea

There continue to be reports from both sides that the Russian Phase 2 offensive for Donbas is days away. One source in Donbas reportedly said this: “The head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration believes that the Russian troops do not start the offensive because of bad weather.” Meanwhile a regional administrator in Barvinkove and separately, the head of Donetsk regional military administrations, urged evacuations as ‘Russia is set to launch a large-scale military operation in a few days.’

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
More missile attacks against industrial areas surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight..

Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not make any territorial advances.

Large battle broke out at Lozove village on the border between Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, just south of Brovary.

Ukrainian army reportedly counter-attack between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders.
Russia demanded that defenders of Mariupol surrender Sunday . Ukraine forces ignored the demand. President Zelensky said that the “Elimination of the last Ukrainian forces in Mariupol will end talks with Russia.”

In Mariupol, Russia’s troops tell locals they’ll close the town completely, ban movement within it to filtrate 100% of male residents. Some men will be forced to join RU troops, others to clear the rubble, the rest will be detained - aide to Mariupol mayor Petro Andryishchenko
NOTE - The term “filtrate” there means arrests and even executing combat aged males, as seen in northern Ukraine. Russia continues to use heavy bombers dropping 2000 lb and larger ordnance on Mariupol - and not necessarily just military targets.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Situation remained largely static, though there appeared to be some probing attacks in the Liubymivka-Novozlatopil region near the separatist held western portion of the Donbas region.

Satellite imagery of Sebastopol harbor show that over a half dozen Russian combat vessels have returned to port in the days after the sinking of the Moskva.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK -
Weather conditions continue to be unfavorable for the Russian Donbas offensive over the next week. If (and a big IF) MAY 9TH is a driving date for the offensive, they are losing time. It gives them some more time to get reorganized, but on the flip side it gives the Ukrainan the same opportunity to prepare and for soil conditions for armor maneuver to degrade further. Still indicators that it will kick off in about a week.

Mariupol continues to be a thorn in Russia’s plans to not only create a land bridge to Crimea, but kick off its Dombas offensive. There are some reports indicating that Russian forces have already been disengaged from Mariupol and sent both north and towards Kherson because so few UAF remain in Mariupol, they don’t need a large force anymore. As Ive noted, the defense of Mariupol has tied up (and damaged) a lot of Russian forces needed to create the southern ‘pincer’ for the Donbas assault with a goal of encircling and defeating main Ukraine forces in the region. Some observers and analysts think Russia is almost ready with the preparations for Phase 2, and are waiting and see if they’re waiting for the ‘symbolic’ fall of Mariupol to begin, or whether they’ll begin without it.

The deployment of forces towards Kherson reflect concerns that Ukraine may be able to recapture it and move to cut off key resupply routes out of Crimea necessary for the southern portion of the Donbas offensive.

Terrain conditions for the Russian attack are deteriorating quickly as spring runoff combined with rains are making much of the terrain unsuitable for maneuver. This will channelized Russia forces to the road network - again. Also, the Ukrainian forces in the region are their most seasoned and best equipped. This is their home court and most likely have all the road networks dialed in for interdicting artillery fires. They have developed success using drones to spot the fires in as well, making the Russian advance costly to men and machines.

Continued losses of Russian senior commanders will not help already screwed up command and control of forces for this more complex offensive. So far it looks like Russia has fallen back into the list of failures it suffered in the north.
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Europe / NATO General -

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who met with Putin this past week in Moscow — the first European leader to do so since the invasion began Feb. 24 — said the Russian president is “in his own war logic” on Ukraine

A huge queue of trucks has formed on the Poland-Belarus border as Russian and Belarussian drivers try to leave the EU following a sanctions deadline. In the run-up to the Saturday deadline, the line extended to 80km (60 miles), with some stuck for up to 33 hours. The EU has banned lorries from Russia and Belarus - except those carrying medicine, mail or petroleum products - from entering or staying in the bloc.

Italy closes its ports to Russian ships starting April 17. Under EU sanctions, Russian ships anchored in Italian ports will have to leave after completing their commercial activity. The ban will also apply to ships that changed their flag after Feb. 24 to circumvent sanctions.
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Israel -

Intensive ISF presence at Damascus Gate area. Large numbers of Palestinian worshippers will pray in Al Aqsa Mosque after Iftar time. Large crowds of Palestinians expected to gather at Damascus Gate. Confrontations/clashes are expected.

Hamas official Zaher Jabarin was on Al-Maydeen news a few hours ago saying if Israel crossed redlines established by the group, the battle would not be on the Gaza and West Bank fronts only. Zaher is hinting Israel could see assaults from Lebanon, Syria and possibly other places.
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Black Swans -

Just another thing on our radar screens. A very active sun spot region is in the process of rotating to our side of the sun and could make things interesting. Newly numbered Active Region 2994 tossed a X1.1 solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME). It was not directed at the earth, but location of the source region will become more favorable against Earth in the days ahead as the region turns into geoeffective position.

X - class flares are the largest category the sun produces and can cause significant damage to the electrical grid. The standard was the Carrington event - approximately a X46 event that created a magnetic storm where the auroras were seen near the equator and electrical current absorbed by the telegraph wires and railroads caused fires. More recent, 1984 Quebec event - about an X15 IIRC, took down most of a power grid. There is no good answer on how prepared our grid is for a big monster CME event. Some dismiss the concerns, others more pessimistic.

NOTE - This is NOT the same effect as a nuclear EMP event, many will get the two confused.