Trying to consolidate two days into to one.
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Wuhan virus -
U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Tampa said the CDC failed to follow the proper rule-making and failed to justify the decision. “The Court concludes that the Mask Mandate exceeds the CDC’s statutory authority and violates the procedures required for agency rulemaking under the APA,” Mizelle wrote in her opinion. “Accordingly, the Court vacates the Mandate and remands it to the CDC.”
OBSERVATION - Mixed signals if biden is going to appeal or not. The ruling was almost instantaneously implemented by the TSA. biden caveated any appeal based upon recommendation by the CDC
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Economy -
A combination of factors has sent corn futures in Chicago to the highest level in a decade as investors fret over dwindling supplies. Corn futures haven’t exceeded $8 a bushel since September 2012, following a devastating drought that damaged crops across the U.S. Midwest. Now supply risks return but for different reasons.
The global outlook for corn supplies has plunged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February. The war-torn country supplies a fifth of the world’s corn and could experience a 50% decline in output this year
U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest level in more than 13 years Monday as Russia’s war on Ukraine causes a global energy crunch and as forecasts called for cooler spring temperatures. Futures jumped 10% to trade as high as $8.05 per million British thermal units, the highest since September 2008. The jump builds on recent strength, with natural gas coming off five straight positive weeks. Prices later retreated slightly, with the contract ending the day 7.12% higher at $7.82.
OBSERVATION - With winter ending and warmer weather coming, the impacts of higher natural gas prices won’t be immediately on forefront due to decreasing demand. However, if they remain at record highs the bite will be big this coming winter.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Biden considering a delay in eliminating the Title 42 restrictions.
OBSERVATION - At this stage of the border failure, the maintenance of the Title 42 restrictions may not make any difference as a tsunami of illegals will hit the border anyway.
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Biden / Harris watch -
According to a new Trafalgar/Convention of States poll, 64% of likely American voters believe that President Joe Biden is compromised or conflicted in decisions involving China due to his family’s business dealings with Chinese companies.
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China -
Videos have emerged on social media revealing the violent response Chinese authorities are taking against residents who break COVID-19 lockdown rules imposed once again in Shanghai and other areas around the country. …residents are beginning to starve under the current lockdowns.
OBSERVATION - The lockdown has also shutdown one of China’s busiest ports, creating another massive shipping clog as vessels are stacked off shore waiting to be loaded and unloaded.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia rejected an Orthodox Easter ceasefire brokered by the UN.
Russian forces started the long awaited Donbas offensive by attacking Ukrainian positions along the entire 300-mile (480km) front line in the eastern Donbas region. These attacks were preceded by an intensive artillery barrage(s) and airstrikes in a classical Russian big gun tactic. Some analysts who’ve been pretty spot on so far in this war indicate that Russia has rushed their preparations and execution of this offensive. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. This may be setting the stage for the same level of C& C and logistical failures experienced in the north.
Two main axis of attack are becoming clarified. One southwest from Izyum/Kreminna and the second from Donetsk City to the north even as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Many assess that even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.
Much discussion on how many BTGs Russia has available for this new offensive. From an estimated 120 BTGs at the start, US estimates 98 remain, about 80% and 22 of the 98 are still being refit/rebuilt outside of Ukraine. Of those 98, only From documented Russian equipment losses by tanks alone the BTGs would be at about 56%. By personnel loss estimates, 40,000 dead/wounded, 66%. So the raw number of BTGs remaining available may be functionally less due to losses.
Time will tell if the May 9th deadline is legit or supposed.
More details under Ukraine fronts below
RUMINT -
“Insiders” report putin is increasingly isolated and cornered by the failures of the Ukraine operation. While publically Moscow is rejecting the use of nukes against Ukraine, these insiders are saying that putin considers them to still be on the table for use.
Logistics -
- The US believes there are now 76 Russian battalion tactical groups in the Donbas region of Ukraine and in the country’s southeast. About 11 of those were added over the last several days. About a dozen of those inside Ukraine are trying to take Mariupol. Besides the 76 BTGs, there are about 22 BTGs north of Ukraine that are likely being resupplied and refitted, the official said.
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 3300 vehicles and other pieces of (heavy) military equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Tanks (521, of which destroyed: 263, damaged: 10, abandoned: 39, captured: 209)
- Russian MoD video showing Bal coastal defense systems launching Kh-35 missiles at targets in Ukraine. This is a subsonic anti-ship missile with, apparently, a land-attack mode. Kh-35 has an armour-penetrator warhead. It’s designed to cut through the steel of a ships hull. Its use has raised more questions of the availability of larger land attack systems.
- Noted in a previous report, Russian Grad-1s from 1950s are being shipped to the front. These are shorter ranged, smaller size rockets than are being currently used.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia still having difficulties getting people to sign up to fight in Ukraine. According to some reports Russia has suffered significant personnel losses. To boost their numbers they reportedly have dropped their standards and allow 3-month contracts but this has not brought in replacements.
- Interesting take on “Moskva” casualties in the UK Guardian. Looks like they estimate around 200 dead, 200 injured and 100 survived...
- Capt. 3rd rank Alexander Grigoryevich Chirva from Sevastopol. Commander of the large landing ship “Caesar Kunikov” has died of his wounds. “Caesar Kunikov” was one of the LSTs forced to flee Berdiansk when “Saratov” blew up.
- Colonel Mikhail Nagamov was reportedly the commander of an engineer-sapper regiment, was killed in Ukraine on April 13.
Economic Impacts -
- Greece has seized a Russian oil tanker off the island of Evia as part of European Union sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, the Greek coast guard said on Tuesday
- Sanctions have south down Russian military factories due to lack of parts.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Continued rain/showers over much of the next 10 day period. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine has weathered the first day+ of the Russian offensive. Tuesday’s clashes showed that Ukraine’s forces are still able to hold firm, and Russia made very little gains on the ground.
Russia made another demand that the defenders of Azovstal complex in Mariupol, surrender. However, the Russian deadline has passed as of this writing with no surrender.
Reminder that the situation has once again become very fluid and can change rapidly.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Ukraine has been receiving increasingly amounts of military supplies and equipment, including more modern systems and Ukrainian personnel are receiving training on them. Further info that external support is coming in to get more Ukrainan aircraft in the sky.
Kyiv front -
Russian President Vladimir Putin bestowed an honorary title on the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade – the military unit accused of committing war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area has now become highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. Most of the Russia efforts are being concentrated between Izyum and Popasna to the south. Ukrainan forces continue to put pressure on the west flank of the Izyum salient in the vicinity of Khariv.
East of Izyum - Russian forces were able to gain control of the village of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, east of Izyum. Battles in this region are being hotly contested by Ukraine and control of some territory is locally seesawing. Russian artillery fire continued to target Popasna, Rubizhe, Lysychansk, and Severodonetsk and shell various settlements in Donetsk Oblast over the last 24 hours.
Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled attempted Russian advances into Avdiivka, Popasna, and Rubizhne on the night of April 18. Unconfirmed sources claimed that Russian troops entered Torske in order to encircle Ukrainian positions in Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Rubizhne,
The Ukrainian army’s 3rd Tank Brigade reportedly has reached the battlefield around Izium. The 3rd might be the first of Kyiv’s reserve armored formations to join the fight.
Map of battles for the east side of Izyum
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQjg3ZHX0AQRPvX?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
As with the fight in the north, I expect the situation to be very fluid over the near term.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russia gave the defenders at Azovstal complex in Mariupol a second order to surrender, deadline has already past. Unknown how much longer the defenders can hold out.
Russians dropped a bomb on the hospital near Azovstal. Local reports that the explosion was heard as far as 60 KM away. Several hundred civilians with children were reportedly taking refuge there.
It has been visually confirmed that in addition to Tu-22M “BACKFIRE” bombers, Tu-95 “BEAR” Long-Range Strategic Bombers are being used against Mariupol dropping massive bombs on the Azovstal facility. These planes are equipped to drop FAB-3000, FAB-5000 and FAB-9000J (3000kg, 5000kg And 9000kg respectively)
According to Mariupol town council, Russians are holding approx. 27,000 of Ukrainians in filtration camps now
Elsewhere, major artillery fires along the LOC but no significant Russia advances.
Crimea Front -
Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. Reports of a limited Russian counter attack outside Oleksandrivka.
Other reports that Russian units are concentrating in Polohy, central Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces may intend to stop Ukrainian counteroffensives in this area or could be planning a more ambitious advance to reach the N15 highway running east from Zaporizhia City.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Ukraine will likely give up some terrain, very begrudgingly, to Russian forces over the course of the next days/weeks but that so far Russia hasn’t shown that they’ve made any significant changes to tactics and logistics that stalled their attacks in the north. Weather conditions are deteriorating over the short term, limiting Russian maneuverability and flexibility on the battle field.
Russia has concentrated forces in eastern Ukraine and have kicked off their offensive. The biggest questions outstanding are have they learned from their tactical and logistical mistakes in the north. Evidence so far is that they haven’t and that they have failed to fully make logistical and C2 preparations necessary for another complex and demanding operation.
The fluid nature of the combat over the course of the next week will provide clarification of Russian goals/success and Ukrainan tenacity. So here’s my best educated guesses.
Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka. Those pushes will be hampered by deteriorating weather conditions that will further soften the ground and make many areas impassable - forcing Russian forces onto the local road network where they are exposed to being destroyed in pieces. It seems that with the Russian concentration of forces that they intend to eventually overwhelm Ukrainian defenses by numbers.
Russian forces will face logistical interdiction from Ukraine artillery and troops on the western side of the Izyum salient - probably one of the weakest parts of the offensive. This may force Russia to divert critical BTGs to defend against being cut off as happened in the north.
Rearming and supplying the Ukraine effort has ramped up significantly in the days prior to the start of the Russian offensive. How much and how quickly can these supplies get to the front line. So far it appears that the resupply efforts are still ahead of the power curve and that Russia is more focused on the Dombas operation than interdiction at the moment. They apparently don’t have the assets to do both. Rumblings of a reinforced/reborn Ukraine air force may be a game changer to further contest Russian air power. Longer range artillery assets and heavier firepower will come in good for Ukraine too.
The defense of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol will continue but for how long? When it falls it could free up to 12 BTGs to fight in other parts of the country according to a senior U.S. defense official. If the May 9th ‘deadline’ is valid, Russia will become increasingly desperate to force the surrender of its defenders and likely step up the use of heavy bombing ordinance and perhaps even the use of chemical munitions. The underground complex are reinforced concrete and deep/multilayered. The Russian ‘bunker busters’ may insufficient to take it out, raising the prospect for the deployment of chemical munitions. The defenders could hole up there and pop up to strike Russian elements unawares.
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Pakistan -
Tensions building between Pakistan and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Pakistan said on Sunday said incidents of its security forces being targeted in cross-border attacks from Afghanistan had risen significantly, and called on Taliban authorities to act against militants, a day after purported air strikes by Pakistan.
The incident has increased already simmering tensions between the neighbours. Taliban authorities on Saturday summoned Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul on Saturday to protest against the strikes. A local Taliban official and residents said the strikes were carried out by Pakistani aircraft inside Afghan airspace.
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Israel -
1 rocket fired from the Gaza Strip was intercepted according to the IDF. In response, Israeli defense forces struck numerous positions and a weapon production facility belonging to Hamas
Al-Qassam Brigades confirmed they launched anti-air missiles at Israeli jets over the Gaza Strip and Hamas reportedly launched several anti-aircraft missiles (likely Strela-2s) at IDF aircraft. Doesn’t seem like any hit.
OBSERVATION - This appears to be the most significant attempt to deter IAF strikes with manpads missile systems. They have reportedly been used in the past, but not to this extent.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See Pakistan above.
While I haven’t noted it here, ISIS has been giving the Taliban a big head ache with numerous, almost daily, terror strikes throughout the country.
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Thanks for the summary and your take on the situation.
CW
Puff, pant. Lots of stuff to wade through and sort out.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is warning that a recession may be difficult to avoid over the next two years. Citing historic trends, the WEF says that “when average quarterly inflation rises above 5%, the probability of a recession over the next two years is above 60%, and when the unemployment rate drops below 4%, the probability of a recession over the next two years approaches 70%.” The WEF estimates at least an 89% chance of recession over the next eight quarters, saying the Fed is “behind the curve” and a “substantial increase in economic slack” could emerge (FO)
OBSERVATION - GGR goals are global economic controls and the powers that be will be expected to try to manipulate any recession/depression to meet their ends.
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Wuhan virus -
After waffling around yesterday, the Justice Department is filing an appeal seeking to overturn a judge’s order that voided the federal mask mandate on planes and trains and in travel hubs, officials said Wednesday.
The notice came minutes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked the Justice Department to appeal the decision handed down by a federal judge in Florida earlier this week.
NOTE - Its not about the disease, its about power.
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Economy -
Deutsche Bank is warning not only to prepare for a global recession in 2023 but a “hard landing”.
Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, said over the weekend that there is now a 35% chance of recession in the U.S. over the next two years.
US existing home sales declined -2.7% MoM in March and are down -3.8% YoY. The median price of existing home sales are still sizzling at 15.23%
That’s in line with what economists had been expecting, according to FactSet. It’s also the slowest pace since June 2020, when sales were running at an annualized rate of 4.77 million homes. Sales were down 4.5% from March 2021.
Fitch Ratings recently reported that 73% of the country’s homes are overvalued, with 46% of those homes being overvalued by at least 10%.
OBSERVATION - Loan interest rates have shot up from the 2’s to 5+ % in a matter of a few months and projected to go even higher. This is causing the housing market bubble to start to implode as people cannot afford to get the loan for these inflated home prices. Expect to see the trend continue as it has in the past, causing a lot of home owners to go under water in their mortgages and speculators/home flippers taking big hits. Economists are trying to assess if this will be just a deflation or an all out crash.
One further note - a lot of the home demand is rising out of the great population migrations out of blue areas and into red areas. As the blue regimes continue their melt downs, red citizens trapped behind the wires so to speak, will continue to try to exit to freer states/regions. How they adapt to these new conditions are yet to be seen.
The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg. Humnath Bhandari, a senior agricultural economist at the institute, said the 10% drop in global rice production is a “very conservative estimate.” He said if the Ukraine conflict continued and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice output could be even more severe. This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, similar to the one that the UN has been warning about.
OBSERVATION - The GGR may start eating the elephant on bite at a time stating with brining these countries under control first, then progressing to first world nations - control the food, control the population
The Mexican legislature approved a proposal by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to nationalize its lithium stores, revoking private ownership of mining leases and land purchases.
OBSERVATION - Lithium becoming more important in some ways than oil. Historically, nationalization of key industries like this has only ended in failure. This will also raise prices for the metal.
IMF revised global growth estimated to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. It also estimates inflation to remain at 5.7% by the end of 2022 for developed economies and 8.7% for emerging markets and developing economies.
OBSERVATION - I think these are optimistic projections that gloss over the synergistic effects of all the factors.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - There is a lot of hopium out there, but the trend I see has a strong possibility of things falling apart this fall/early winter. The trend for the past two years has been economic hit after economic hit, increasing with intensity with the passage of time. Just like the ‘transitory’ inflation narrative from last fall, the narrative is trying to deflect from current trend. One last item to consider is what happens when Republicans take control of congress? I’ve noted that biden hasn’t just been incompetent in the handling of the economy but deliberate in causing chaos (as he has in other areas). When he loses congress, he may accelerate economic destruction.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Biden administration has been repeatedly ordered by courts to continue enforcing the Trump-era Remain in Mexico policy for illegal migrants, but its own records show it has willfully thumbed its nose at those rulings as it waits for a final crack at the Supreme Court. U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency data shows just 199 of the 221,303 illegal aliens stopped by federal agents in March were placed into the Migrant Protection Protocol (MPP), the formal name of the Remain in Mexico policy. That amounts to a miniscule 0.09% of participation in MPP, an enforcement percentage border experts say makes a mockery of the courts’ orders.
OBSERVATION - This is just another instance of the technique biden has applied against other court rulings, shift the policy slightly and keep doing what it has been doing knowing that the court process can be bogged down and they can continue their plans in the face of court rulings.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The U.S. Navy is standing up a new multi-national task force in the Red Sea region due to an increase in missile attacks and smuggling operations. Commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, said Combined Task Force 153 “will focus on international maritime security and capacity-building efforts specifically in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden. These are strategically important waters that warrant our attention, and any destabilizing activity, including threats to commercial traffic and coastal infrastructure, really can have profound global impacts.”
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China -
Rich Chinese are trying to move out of lockdown areas of China while food and water shortages continue to impact millions.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia tested its RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile in what’s being described as a warning to the United States and NATO. The missile’s exact capabilities are publicly unavailable but it’s believed to feature a Fractional Orbital Bombardment capability, can carry up to 15 hypersonic glide vehicles, and circumnavigate the South Pole to avoid Western missile defenses.
Putin ordered the cancelation of the assault of Azovstal steel factory after several failed attempts. Directed the army to lay siege instead. Putin is hailing Russia’s “liberation” of Mariupol after his forces completely destroyed during a two-month siege.
He told defense minister Sergei Shoigu to block off the Azovstal metallurgical plant, where the last Ukrainian troops are holed up, “so that a fly can’t get in.”
OBSERVATION - By playing this word game, putin can claim a victory over the city. However, in order to seal up the Azovstal metallurgical plant “tightly” he still has to commit troops needed for the Donbas campaign.
Russian made some advances overnight in the Donbas offensive. More details under Ukraine fronts
RUMINT -
Observers are noting putin’s hand grip on the table and leg movements during his televised meeting with Shoigu as indicative of a palsy os some kind and overall health.
Further rumors that Russia will forcibly conscript Ukrainians in captured territories into its military and force them to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
Logistics -
- Russian forces are still assessed as building the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- A number of Syrians fighting for Russia in Ukraine have been killed on the battlefield. Part of a group of mercenaries hired buy the Russian Wagner group
- The Russian military has reportedly lost its 40th senior officer since the invasion of Ukraine began less than two months ago. Russian Lt. Col Denis Mezhuev had been killed in fighting in Ukraine’s east.
Economic Impacts -
- The US Treasury imposes sanctions on the Russian commercial bank “Trans Capital”
- Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia’s current account balance is at all time highs.
- Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, along with European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde, Canadian Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland, and the Ukrainian Finance Minister, walked out of a G20 meeting when Anton Siluanov, the Russian Finance Minister, started speaking.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Continued rain/showers over much of the next 10 day period. This will sustain muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia’s FSB is conducting a purge of the political leadership of the Separatist LNR in retaliation for its failure to achieve military objectives since February 24.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Remarkably, Russia still DOES NOT have clear air superiority on Day 56 of the war.
Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Many of the advances are strongly road bound, restricting the amount of firepower available as well as exposing the logistics tail. Weather is unfavorable for extensive off road maneuvering due to mud.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. Most of the Russia efforts are being concentrated between Izyum and Popasna to the south. Russian forces are continuing to take losses over the course of such attempted offensives in Kharkiv Oblast. One unconfirmed report that battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division withdrew from Kharkiv Oblast back to its permanent deployment point in Belgorod, Russia due to heavy combat losses.
Russia continued to focus its efforts around the Izyum, Kreminna , Popasna and Severodonetsk areas. Russian forces appear to be trying to reinforce its success at Kreminna. Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces mounted attacks south and southwest of Izyum with ”partial success,” indicating localized advances.
According to US sources, in the Donbas region it is estimated that Russia now controls 80% of Luhansk Oblast, up from the 60% at the start for the war. Donetsk Oblast has had virtually not change in territory controlled.
OBSERVATION - Difficult to assess this 20% gain given that the combat is very fluid at this time and US intel may be interpolating laterally what are literally road bound advances.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
putin has changed the victory conditions claiming Mariupol has been captured and ordering the Ukrainan defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant to be placed under a siege. This gives Russia propaganda towards its May 9th declaration of victory. Effectively sealing off the steel plant will still require a considerable commitment of Russian assets as any slackness on their part may embolden the Ukrainian forces to locally attack. How long the Ukrainan defenders can hold out depends on the resource stored in the extensive bunker system beneath the plant.
putin’s change in plans may also signal the need to free up forces for the Donbas campaign.
Russia had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front.
Crimea Front -
Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in Oleksandrivka, west of Kherson city. These attacks may be designed to take pressure off Ukrainan advance towards Kharkiv.
Western Ukraine -
More missile and rocket attacks in the region noted.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian trying to reinforce limited success in eastern Ukraine. Fighting will continue to be fierce as Russia tries to force more troops into those areas in an attempt to grind down Ukrainian defenses. However, it appears that these advances are predominantly road bound and Russians will be forced to suffer heavy losses. Logistics will continue to plague the advance.
The southern pincer is still stalled predominately at the LOC and not providing any substantial support to the northern part of the pincer. Reconfiguration of Russian forces to isolate the Azovstal Steel Plant may be haphazard over the next few days as Russian forces try to layout defensive, blocking positions.
Russia will face increasing challenges to its air power as Ukraine AF gets a boost in aircraft and equipment. Ground based ADA will further stress Russian AF as they are exposed to man portable missile fire as well.
Crimean forces will continue to try to block Ukrainian efforts towards Kherson to prevent them from cutting off supply lines to the front. The sinking of the “Moskva” still has the Russian navy wary of approaching the Odessa coast and any amphibious operations are highly unlikely. More likely is that Russian marine units instead will be diverted to the Donbas region to support that offensive.
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Belarus -
Satellite imagery indicate that there are almost no planes and helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces left at Belarusian airfields, about 85% of military equipment has been withdrawn and moved south closer to the Donbas region.
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Europe / NATO General -
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrived Thursday morning with his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen in Kyiv where they are both due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Spanish government announced.
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Israel -
Things got busy in the Israel/Gaza region overnight when most likely the PIJ launched an unguided rocket at Sderot. The rocket apparently landed outside of the city, but a large section of it ricocheted and impacted near the home, causing minimal damage. It was loaded with ball bearings, a method Hezbollah used in 2006. Upon impact the heavy ball bearings will fly outwards.
Israel responded with air and artillery strikes against Hamas related facilities in Gaza (NOTE- Israel’s official position is to hold Hamas accountable for any attacks, even those committed by other terror organizations). Gazans reported machine gun fire towards Israeli aircraft over the Gaza Strip as well as an AA missile (likely shoulder mounted again) was fired towards Israeli aircraft. The Israeli Air Force attacked those positions tonight (in a second wave) from which anti-aircraft fire was fired at Israeli Air Force planes that attacked the Gaza Strip tonight.
Another slavo of rockets (at least four) were launched towards Israel, this time all were intercepted by Iron Dome.
OBSERVATION - Palestinian media presented the use of the missiles as a new, groundbreaking capability, with Hamas itself later publishing a video showing off the attempt. But these capabilities not new for Hamas and other Gaza-based terror groups . I suspect the increased PR is trying to take from Ukraine success with such units and trying harder to score a kill. Israel already considers this a threat, but perhaps Hamas et al are hoping pilots have gotten lax in their operations.
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Iraq -
According to the Defense Ministry in Ankara, Turkey has launched a large cross-border military attack against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgents in northern Iraq. “Our struggle will continue until the last terrorist is neutralized,” he said. “We are determined to save our noble nation from the terror misfortune that has plagued our country for 40 years.”
Defense Minister Hulusi Akar declared the operation in a video speech on Monday morning, saying it will include a comprehensive airstrike campaign involving jets, helicopters, and drones, as well as a land incursion by commando troops.
Iraqi Foreign Ministry said the Turkish military operations in Iraqi territory are a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and a threat to its territorial integrity. We demand the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraqi territory.
OBSERVATION - I don’t anticipate war breaking out as Iraq as a whole is indifferent towards the Kurds, but don’t want Turkey to start messing around with the oilfields in the Kurdistan region. Iraq’s military already has its hands full with ISIS resurgence as well as Iranian backed militias.
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Saudi Arabia -
Reports that SA is pretty ticked off at biden et al and that is part of the refusal to boost oil production as well as participate in any other gulf related issues.
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Turkey -
See Iraq above
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