Puff, pant. Lots of stuff to wade through and sort out.
________________________________
Globalism / Great Reset -
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is warning that a recession may be difficult to avoid over the next two years. Citing historic trends, the WEF says that “when average quarterly inflation rises above 5%, the probability of a recession over the next two years is above 60%, and when the unemployment rate drops below 4%, the probability of a recession over the next two years approaches 70%.” The WEF estimates at least an 89% chance of recession over the next eight quarters, saying the Fed is “behind the curve” and a “substantial increase in economic slack” could emerge (FO)
OBSERVATION - GGR goals are global economic controls and the powers that be will be expected to try to manipulate any recession/depression to meet their ends.
_____________________________
Wuhan virus -
After waffling around yesterday, the Justice Department is filing an appeal seeking to overturn a judge’s order that voided the federal mask mandate on planes and trains and in travel hubs, officials said Wednesday.
The notice came minutes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked the Justice Department to appeal the decision handed down by a federal judge in Florida earlier this week.
NOTE - Its not about the disease, its about power.
____________________________
Economy -
Deutsche Bank is warning not only to prepare for a global recession in 2023 but a “hard landing”.
Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, said over the weekend that there is now a 35% chance of recession in the U.S. over the next two years.
US existing home sales declined -2.7% MoM in March and are down -3.8% YoY. The median price of existing home sales are still sizzling at 15.23%
That’s in line with what economists had been expecting, according to FactSet. It’s also the slowest pace since June 2020, when sales were running at an annualized rate of 4.77 million homes. Sales were down 4.5% from March 2021.
Fitch Ratings recently reported that 73% of the country’s homes are overvalued, with 46% of those homes being overvalued by at least 10%.
OBSERVATION - Loan interest rates have shot up from the 2’s to 5+ % in a matter of a few months and projected to go even higher. This is causing the housing market bubble to start to implode as people cannot afford to get the loan for these inflated home prices. Expect to see the trend continue as it has in the past, causing a lot of home owners to go under water in their mortgages and speculators/home flippers taking big hits. Economists are trying to assess if this will be just a deflation or an all out crash.
One further note - a lot of the home demand is rising out of the great population migrations out of blue areas and into red areas. As the blue regimes continue their melt downs, red citizens trapped behind the wires so to speak, will continue to try to exit to freer states/regions. How they adapt to these new conditions are yet to be seen.
The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg. Humnath Bhandari, a senior agricultural economist at the institute, said the 10% drop in global rice production is a “very conservative estimate.” He said if the Ukraine conflict continued and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice output could be even more severe. This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, similar to the one that the UN has been warning about.
OBSERVATION - The GGR may start eating the elephant on bite at a time stating with brining these countries under control first, then progressing to first world nations - control the food, control the population
The Mexican legislature approved a proposal by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to nationalize its lithium stores, revoking private ownership of mining leases and land purchases.
OBSERVATION - Lithium becoming more important in some ways than oil. Historically, nationalization of key industries like this has only ended in failure. This will also raise prices for the metal.
IMF revised global growth estimated to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. It also estimates inflation to remain at 5.7% by the end of 2022 for developed economies and 8.7% for emerging markets and developing economies.
OBSERVATION - I think these are optimistic projections that gloss over the synergistic effects of all the factors.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - There is a lot of hopium out there, but the trend I see has a strong possibility of things falling apart this fall/early winter. The trend for the past two years has been economic hit after economic hit, increasing with intensity with the passage of time. Just like the ‘transitory’ inflation narrative from last fall, the narrative is trying to deflect from current trend. One last item to consider is what happens when Republicans take control of congress? I’ve noted that biden hasn’t just been incompetent in the handling of the economy but deliberate in causing chaos (as he has in other areas). When he loses congress, he may accelerate economic destruction.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
Biden administration has been repeatedly ordered by courts to continue enforcing the Trump-era Remain in Mexico policy for illegal migrants, but its own records show it has willfully thumbed its nose at those rulings as it waits for a final crack at the Supreme Court. U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency data shows just 199 of the 221,303 illegal aliens stopped by federal agents in March were placed into the Migrant Protection Protocol (MPP), the formal name of the Remain in Mexico policy. That amounts to a miniscule 0.09% of participation in MPP, an enforcement percentage border experts say makes a mockery of the courts’ orders.
OBSERVATION - This is just another instance of the technique biden has applied against other court rulings, shift the policy slightly and keep doing what it has been doing knowing that the court process can be bogged down and they can continue their plans in the face of court rulings.
______________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The U.S. Navy is standing up a new multi-national task force in the Red Sea region due to an increase in missile attacks and smuggling operations. Commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, said Combined Task Force 153 “will focus on international maritime security and capacity-building efforts specifically in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden. These are strategically important waters that warrant our attention, and any destabilizing activity, including threats to commercial traffic and coastal infrastructure, really can have profound global impacts.”
_________________________________
China -
Rich Chinese are trying to move out of lockdown areas of China while food and water shortages continue to impact millions.
____________________________________
North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Russia tested its RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile in what’s being described as a warning to the United States and NATO. The missile’s exact capabilities are publicly unavailable but it’s believed to feature a Fractional Orbital Bombardment capability, can carry up to 15 hypersonic glide vehicles, and circumnavigate the South Pole to avoid Western missile defenses.
Putin ordered the cancelation of the assault of Azovstal steel factory after several failed attempts. Directed the army to lay siege instead. Putin is hailing Russia’s “liberation” of Mariupol after his forces completely destroyed during a two-month siege.
He told defense minister Sergei Shoigu to block off the Azovstal metallurgical plant, where the last Ukrainian troops are holed up, “so that a fly can’t get in.”
OBSERVATION - By playing this word game, putin can claim a victory over the city. However, in order to seal up the Azovstal metallurgical plant “tightly” he still has to commit troops needed for the Donbas campaign.
Russian made some advances overnight in the Donbas offensive. More details under Ukraine fronts
RUMINT -
Observers are noting putin’s hand grip on the table and leg movements during his televised meeting with Shoigu as indicative of a palsy os some kind and overall health.
Further rumors that Russia will forcibly conscript Ukrainians in captured territories into its military and force them to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
Logistics -
- Russian forces are still assessed as building the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- A number of Syrians fighting for Russia in Ukraine have been killed on the battlefield. Part of a group of mercenaries hired buy the Russian Wagner group
- The Russian military has reportedly lost its 40th senior officer since the invasion of Ukraine began less than two months ago. Russian Lt. Col Denis Mezhuev had been killed in fighting in Ukraine’s east.
Economic Impacts -
- The US Treasury imposes sanctions on the Russian commercial bank “Trans Capital”
- Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia’s current account balance is at all time highs.
- Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, along with European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde, Canadian Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland, and the Ukrainian Finance Minister, walked out of a G20 meeting when Anton Siluanov, the Russian Finance Minister, started speaking.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Continued rain/showers over much of the next 10 day period. This will sustain muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia’s FSB is conducting a purge of the political leadership of the Separatist LNR in retaliation for its failure to achieve military objectives since February 24.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Remarkably, Russia still DOES NOT have clear air superiority on Day 56 of the war.
Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Many of the advances are strongly road bound, restricting the amount of firepower available as well as exposing the logistics tail. Weather is unfavorable for extensive off road maneuvering due to mud.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. Most of the Russia efforts are being concentrated between Izyum and Popasna to the south. Russian forces are continuing to take losses over the course of such attempted offensives in Kharkiv Oblast. One unconfirmed report that battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division withdrew from Kharkiv Oblast back to its permanent deployment point in Belgorod, Russia due to heavy combat losses.
Russia continued to focus its efforts around the Izyum, Kreminna , Popasna and Severodonetsk areas. Russian forces appear to be trying to reinforce its success at Kreminna. Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces mounted attacks south and southwest of Izyum with ”partial success,” indicating localized advances.
According to US sources, in the Donbas region it is estimated that Russia now controls 80% of Luhansk Oblast, up from the 60% at the start for the war. Donetsk Oblast has had virtually not change in territory controlled.
OBSERVATION - Difficult to assess this 20% gain given that the combat is very fluid at this time and US intel may be interpolating laterally what are literally road bound advances.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
putin has changed the victory conditions claiming Mariupol has been captured and ordering the Ukrainan defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant to be placed under a siege. This gives Russia propaganda towards its May 9th declaration of victory. Effectively sealing off the steel plant will still require a considerable commitment of Russian assets as any slackness on their part may embolden the Ukrainian forces to locally attack. How long the Ukrainan defenders can hold out depends on the resource stored in the extensive bunker system beneath the plant.
putin’s change in plans may also signal the need to free up forces for the Donbas campaign.
Russia had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front.
Crimea Front -
Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in Oleksandrivka, west of Kherson city. These attacks may be designed to take pressure off Ukrainan advance towards Kharkiv.
Western Ukraine -
More missile and rocket attacks in the region noted.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian trying to reinforce limited success in eastern Ukraine. Fighting will continue to be fierce as Russia tries to force more troops into those areas in an attempt to grind down Ukrainian defenses. However, it appears that these advances are predominantly road bound and Russians will be forced to suffer heavy losses. Logistics will continue to plague the advance.
The southern pincer is still stalled predominately at the LOC and not providing any substantial support to the northern part of the pincer. Reconfiguration of Russian forces to isolate the Azovstal Steel Plant may be haphazard over the next few days as Russian forces try to layout defensive, blocking positions.
Russia will face increasing challenges to its air power as Ukraine AF gets a boost in aircraft and equipment. Ground based ADA will further stress Russian AF as they are exposed to man portable missile fire as well.
Crimean forces will continue to try to block Ukrainian efforts towards Kherson to prevent them from cutting off supply lines to the front. The sinking of the “Moskva” still has the Russian navy wary of approaching the Odessa coast and any amphibious operations are highly unlikely. More likely is that Russian marine units instead will be diverted to the Donbas region to support that offensive.
___________________________________
Belarus -
Satellite imagery indicate that there are almost no planes and helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces left at Belarusian airfields, about 85% of military equipment has been withdrawn and moved south closer to the Donbas region.
______________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrived Thursday morning with his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen in Kyiv where they are both due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Spanish government announced.
____________________________________
Israel -
Things got busy in the Israel/Gaza region overnight when most likely the PIJ launched an unguided rocket at Sderot. The rocket apparently landed outside of the city, but a large section of it ricocheted and impacted near the home, causing minimal damage. It was loaded with ball bearings, a method Hezbollah used in 2006. Upon impact the heavy ball bearings will fly outwards.
Israel responded with air and artillery strikes against Hamas related facilities in Gaza (NOTE- Israel’s official position is to hold Hamas accountable for any attacks, even those committed by other terror organizations). Gazans reported machine gun fire towards Israeli aircraft over the Gaza Strip as well as an AA missile (likely shoulder mounted again) was fired towards Israeli aircraft. The Israeli Air Force attacked those positions tonight (in a second wave) from which anti-aircraft fire was fired at Israeli Air Force planes that attacked the Gaza Strip tonight.
Another slavo of rockets (at least four) were launched towards Israel, this time all were intercepted by Iron Dome.
OBSERVATION - Palestinian media presented the use of the missiles as a new, groundbreaking capability, with Hamas itself later publishing a video showing off the attempt. But these capabilities not new for Hamas and other Gaza-based terror groups . I suspect the increased PR is trying to take from Ukraine success with such units and trying harder to score a kill. Israel already considers this a threat, but perhaps Hamas et al are hoping pilots have gotten lax in their operations.
____________________________________
Iraq -
According to the Defense Ministry in Ankara, Turkey has launched a large cross-border military attack against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgents in northern Iraq. “Our struggle will continue until the last terrorist is neutralized,” he said. “We are determined to save our noble nation from the terror misfortune that has plagued our country for 40 years.”
Defense Minister Hulusi Akar declared the operation in a video speech on Monday morning, saying it will include a comprehensive airstrike campaign involving jets, helicopters, and drones, as well as a land incursion by commando troops.
Iraqi Foreign Ministry said the Turkish military operations in Iraqi territory are a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and a threat to its territorial integrity. We demand the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraqi territory.
OBSERVATION - I don’t anticipate war breaking out as Iraq as a whole is indifferent towards the Kurds, but don’t want Turkey to start messing around with the oilfields in the Kurdistan region. Iraq’s military already has its hands full with ISIS resurgence as well as Iranian backed militias.
_________________________________
Saudi Arabia -
Reports that SA is pretty ticked off at biden et al and that is part of the refusal to boost oil production as well as participate in any other gulf related issues.
__________________________________
Turkey -
See Iraq above
______________________________________
Because Russia hasn't lost enough commanders to fragging???
whew!
Time to pull out the thermometer and subjectively see the intensity of activity that poses both direct and indirect threats to the US
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
_____________________________
Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
In remarks to the World Bank’s “Financing Climate Action” event on April 21, Baron Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s most influential climate economists, spoke about what he sees as necessary global actions on climate change, including on the sale of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. “The right kind of policies have to be put in place, including the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, the advancement of carbon pricing, but clarity on timescales for decentralization of the grid, clarity on timescales for stopping the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, and so on—making sure the sense of direction is clear in those ways,”
OBSERVATION - GGR piggybacks on the global warming scare to control people’s lives. The internal combustion engine is one of the most significant developments of the historical era. Elimination of it and forcing electric vehicles will essentially force the population to live in urban areas as these vehicles have no capability to easily permit cross country movement (charge limitations ). This in term would force the population to use other mass transit forms like trains. Feasable in european countries, not so here in America.
A new app recently released in Italy presents striking similarities with China’s social credit system by rewarding some citizens for their behavior through a point system.
“Smart Citizen Wallet” was presented at a March 29 press conference on digital innovation in Bologna, where mayor Matteo Lepore, and Massimo Bugani, director of the city’s “Digital Agenda,” discussed the project. Citizens using the app will be rewarded for things such as recycling, using public transports, managing energy well, and not getting fined.
“Obviously no one will be forced to participate,” he said. “Those who want to will be able to give consent when downloading and using the app.”
OBSERVATION - Incrementalism, luring people towards the global credit system.
________________________________
Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
When given the opportunity to explain and justify the Biden administration’s decision to appeal the federal judge’s invalidation of the CDC’s federal mask mandate, Psaki admitted that the White House would fight the ruling in order to “preserve that authority for the CDC to have in the future.” Psaki later said the White House’s focus following the federal judge’s decision was “seeing what power we had to preserve what we felt was in the public health interest of the country.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve said it dozens of times, its not about the disease, its all about power.
State Senator Samuel Bell (D) submitted the punitive bill last month, which orders all Rhode Island residents and taxpayers over 16 years old to receive the COVID-19 injection and boosters mandated by the state’s director of the department of health.
Anybody who violates that order “shall owe twice the amount of personal income taxes” to the state.
OBSERVATION - This could easily be posted under GGR. Power, all about power.
_____________________________
Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Data released by Freddie Mac has since been published and finds that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have increased during the last week to an average of 5.11%, up from 5% the week before and the highest in over twelve years.
OBSERVATION - Housing market is one of those bell weather sectors gauging economic health. Already posted that sales are dropping and prices are continuing to rise. Question is how hard will the bubble burst? Inflation by itself is pricing many Americans out of the mortgage market, predicted Fed rate increases will eliminate more.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a 50 basis point hike is likely for May and that the Fed expected inflation to peak around this time.
OBSERVATION - Just like ‘transitory inflation”?
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
DHS extends COVID vax mandate for noncitizens entering legally, as illegal entrants remain exempt. Immigration and Customs Enforcement “cannot mandate individuals in detention consent to be vaccinated,” according to agency guidance. Travelers entering the U.S. through legal ports of entry will continue to be forced to show proof of vaccination, no such mandate applies to the record number of illegal immigrants the Biden administration is processing at the southern border.
Biden has signed a bill allowing the Shadow Wolves, a specialized Native American federal tactical unit patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border on the lands of the Tohono O’odham Nation in Arizona, to reclassify as Immigration and Customs Enforcement Special Agents. This bill also directs the federal government to seek out ways to expand the Shadow Wolves program that has been instrumental in stemming the flow of narcotics and human trafficking in the region.
______________________________
Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Already noted earlier this week, the easter bunny is biden’s latest handler. . . .
Harris’ chief of staff Tina Flournoy is leaving her position after 15 months — joining a growing list of Harris aides who have called it quits over the past year. The reason Flournoy is bowing out wasn’t made public.
OBSERVATION - Over a dozen staffers have quit over the past few months. Rumors are rampant that working for her is ‘toxic’. That, combined with the dumpster fire she starts everytime she opens her mouth makes propping her up nearly impossible.
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
Recent police related killings are driving some local violence.
_________________________________
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Musk still causing liberal heads to explode across the inter webs with his attempts to purchase Twitter.
__________________________________
POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
From the GP, consider the messenger, but the source seems valid.
On January 10, 2021, Kevin McCarthy spoke with several GOP House leaders including Liz Cheney who was third-in-line in the House Republican Caucus at that time.
During the call, McCarthy told Liz Cheney that he would counsel President Trump Trump to resign.
From the call:
Kevin McCarthy: “I think [impeachment resolutions] will pass, and it would be my recommendation you (President Trump) should resign… What he did is unacceptable. Nobody can defend that and nobody should defend it.”
McCarthy also indicated that he believed Twitter and Facebook should delete the accounts of lawmakers who were supporting Trump’s claim of a rigged election. “We can’t put up with that,” he said. “Can’t they take their Twitter accounts away, too?”
...,... Snip.......
For the record — Kevin McCarthy has posted numerous tweets condemning Twitter censorship.
While pushing for it on his fellow party members!
OBSERVATION - The political establishment infesting DC is corrupt to no end, on both sides of the isle.
The Florida House of Representatives followed the State Senate in approving two bills stripping Disney of its special status in Florida.
OBSERVATION - Current front of the culture wars.
_____________________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
_________________________________
Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
The FBI is warning U.S. industry about BlackCat’s (ALPHV) ransomware-as-a-service since the group compromised sixty organizations last month.
_________________________________
China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a call with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, wherein Wei conveyed a warning that no one can change Taiwan’s status as part of China. Further, “Wei stated a solemn position over the Taiwan question, as he stressed that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and this is a fact and a status quo no one can change.”
OBSERVATION - Weakness shown by biden on the global stage has emboldened US enemies like China.
China may see food shortages due to supply chain disruptions brought about by its domestic zero-COVID policies. An 87% decrease in trucking and transportation activity due to COVID restrictions has prevented agricultural implements from reaching farmers in time for planting season. Additionally, overzealous local officials have been arresting farmers for violating COVID policies while they are attempting to work their fields during the spring planting season.
China has been on a buying binge seeking grain from other countries, cornering as much as 60+% of the market in some instances.
Tajikistan opened a new gold processing plant in its northern Sughd region last week. The $136 million facility, built by China’s Talco Gold corporation, is expected to produce around 2.2 tons of gold and 21,000 tons of antimony annually. 62% of Tajikistan’s direct foreign investment comes from China.
OBSERVATION - This venture, like many others that China has sponsored, has hooks and if Tajikistan can’t hold up its end of bargain, China will foreclose and take full control.
____________________________________
North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.
___________________________________
Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
____________________________________
Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
*********
A massive fire broke out at a sensitive Russian Defense Ministry research facility in the city of Tver, killing 7. This is a top-secret military research institute working to develop Russia’s newest ballistic missiles. Questions are now being raised as another mysterious large blaze erupted, at the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant, Russia’s largest chemical plant, a mere hours after the fire in Tver. Coincidence?
More evaluation about the health of putin as well as Shoigu, who slurred his words and reading from his notes following a reported heart attack.
The deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District named the goals of the second stage of the invasion of Ukraine:
- Establishing a control over the Donbas;
- Land corridor to Crimea;
- Establishing a control over the southern Ukraine and land corridor to Transnistria.
OBSERVATION - A lot of press in the Russian desire to control the Donbas, these other two are carry overs that I’ve noted many times. The land corridor to Crimea is essentially complete, even without the complete subjugation of Mariupol. The last, complete control of southern Ukraine (land locking the nation) and land corridor to Transnistra may well be a bridge too far given Russian capabilities. So far it is estimated that Russian has lost over 30% of its forces, and those remaining combat effective are struggling with the Donbas effort. The conclusion of the Donbas effort will likely leave too few forces to accomplish the task.
Personnel Issues -
- British MP’s were also reportedly told nearly 3,000 or so Russian Wagner mercenaries had been killed (The Independent reports this). Higher numbers of mercenaries losses are being floated as well. Russia has used them as cannon fodder in many areas like Mariupol.
____________________________________
Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine is in its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has continued rain. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
U.S Intelligence and Defense Officials now believe that after the delivery of an unannounced number of T-72 Main Battle Tanks from multiple European Countries that the Ukrainian Military now currently operates more tanks within Ukraine than the Russian Military does. Raw numbers of Russian tanks captured by Ukraine alone exceeds its reported losses.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant to report
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
Russian forces continued assaults on Ukrainian positions around Izyum but did not secure any territorial gains. Some observers think these are probing attacks. Izyum is key for a southwest axis to cut off the northern Donbas region. Operations remain largely road-bound though, limiting capabilities.
Russian forces continued to focus their assaults on Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna and likely made local advances in Rubizhne. Those gains are coming at a cost to Russian units though. Intelligence indicates that Russia is directing additional reinforcements to these battles to exploit any gains. However, these advances are largely road bound with off road conditions not conducive to maneuver.
Russian troops also shelled Luhansk region - Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Rubizhne, Hirske
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
With Russia’s declaration of victory in the battle of Mariupol, analysis suggests that it will still be some time before forces are redirected to the Donbas assault. Various intelligence agencies assess that Russian units have taken high casualties in the battle of Mariupol, are degraded, and are unlikely to possess their full complement of personnel. Some units will be necessary to maintain the siege of the Azovstal steel plant as well as deal with pockets of resistance throughout the city.
New mass grave discovered west of Mariupol in Manhush, Ukraine where Russian soldiers have deposited over 200 bodies, satellite image from Maxar shows. New satellite images appear to show expansion of mass graves near the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol which the city council claims could hold as many as 9,000 bodies. “The occupying forces have dug ... a number of mass graves,” said Petro Andrushenko, spokesman for Mayor Vadym Boychenko, on his Telegram account. “Each grave measures 100 feet wide and 100 feet long. Russians are using trucks to deliver the bodies. Then, they simply dump them, a couple at a time.”
According to the most modest reports, there are more than 5,000 dead civilians in Mariupol.
Andrushenko also claims that officials in areas where Russia has already seized are restricting who can be buried.
“To receive any documentation on the death of loved ones in Mariupol, citizens must report all available information on the deceased, place they were buried and passport details,” he wrote. “Only if all that information is given do residents receive a certificate of death and receive the ‘right’ to bury someone at a proper cemetery.”
Efforts are still being made to allow trapped civilians to leave Mariupol, but continue to be blocked by Russia.
Russian troops shelled Huliaipilske, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Temyrivka, Preobrazhenka, Charivne, Uspenivka, Mala Tokmachka, Malynivka, Poltavka, Novoandriivka with tanks, MLRS, howitzers and mortars. This is some of the most intense fire seen in weeks. Probably a precursor to Russians trying to start pushing north within the next few days. The axis for this attack appears to be north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka.
Crimea Front -
Russian troops attempted to advance near Trudolyubivka, Kherson region, but failed. Likely an attempt to resume an advance on Kryvyi Rih.
No significant actions in the Mykolaiv - Kherson sector as both sides appear to be consolidating their positions.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
OUTLOOK -
So far the first week of the Russian Donbas operation has only seen very limited gains by Russian forces. Many observers note that it seems that it has been rushed with forces and logistics not fully in place to support the operation, thus resulting in many of the same problems experienced in the north.
Expect continued Russian pressure southward from Izyum and Rubizhne as well as a developing northward push from Donetsk. Activity in the Crimea front is expected to be limited though there seems to be attempts to resume offensive actions towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhia.
Action in Mariupol expected to remain status quo as Russia tries to switch from a complete destruction of Ukraine forces to a new mission to contain Ukraine forces within the Azovstal steel plant and freeing forces to join the northward push into the Donbas. US estimates that as many as 12 BTGs could be freed up for this operation, however, these units have been heavily attritted and may have limited combat effectiveness, needing rearming and remanning.
Given the stated Russian objectives for this “phase 2” of controlling all the Black Sea coastline all the way to Transnistria, the Russian amphibious operation in the Odesa region is still in play, but just can’t see how they can execute it given the ground force demands in the Donbas and the available forces in western Crimea front. The sinking of the “Moskva” shows that Ukraine has teeth and with even more shore launched anti ship systems in bound, any window of operation is quickly closing. Russian forces from Transnistria could attempt to attack into Ukraine, but are insufficiently supplied and trained to make much difference.
____________________________________
Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Downgraded from RED as Russia has pulled most of its forces out of the country and move them to support Donbas operations.
Russian switch in priorities to eastern Ukraine has resulted in most of the Russian forces staging in Belarus moving to areas closer to the fight.
________________________________________
Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
________________________________________
Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.
Ukrainian troops are being trained on 120 armored vehicles in the UK. Mastiff, Wolfhound, Husky, Samaritan, Sultan and Samson vehicles all provided. Air Defense training ongoing in Poland.
President of the European Council: had a call with Putin. Strongly urged for immediate humanitarian access and safe passage from #Mariupol and other besieged cities all the more on the occasion of Orthodox Easter.
US-European statement: Those responsible for crimes in areas controlled by Russian forces must be held accountable.
Latvia’s Parliament officially declares Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine a genocide
UK to reopen its embassy in Kyiv
____________________________________
Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Tensions as Ramadan riots continue, with Israeli police having to enter the Temple Mount area again to quell moslem rioting.
____________________________________
Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program as well as spread terror and unrest via its proxy forces through out the region.
_________________________________
Iraq - YELLOW trending upward *updated 01/28/22*
Turkish security forces have “neutralized” 42 PKK militants since the recent launch of Operation Claw-Lock in northern Iraq, the country’s National Defense Ministry said.
OBSERVATION - Iraq to avoid a direct conflict with Turkey.
_________________________________
Syria - YELLOW
Russian bombers reappeared over southern countryside of Idlib, striking targets. The pilots probably thankful they are flying unopposed strikes instead of the manpads nest of Ukraine.
__________________________________
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - YELLOW
Has its hands full with ISIS insurgency.
___________________________________
Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-22-22
Increased military activity in Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish PKK
______________________________________