Time to pull out the thermometer and subjectively see the intensity of activity that poses both direct and indirect threats to the US
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
In remarks to the World Bank’s “Financing Climate Action” event on April 21, Baron Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s most influential climate economists, spoke about what he sees as necessary global actions on climate change, including on the sale of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. “The right kind of policies have to be put in place, including the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, the advancement of carbon pricing, but clarity on timescales for decentralization of the grid, clarity on timescales for stopping the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, and so on—making sure the sense of direction is clear in those ways,”
OBSERVATION - GGR piggybacks on the global warming scare to control people’s lives. The internal combustion engine is one of the most significant developments of the historical era. Elimination of it and forcing electric vehicles will essentially force the population to live in urban areas as these vehicles have no capability to easily permit cross country movement (charge limitations ). This in term would force the population to use other mass transit forms like trains. Feasable in european countries, not so here in America.
A new app recently released in Italy presents striking similarities with China’s social credit system by rewarding some citizens for their behavior through a point system.
“Smart Citizen Wallet” was presented at a March 29 press conference on digital innovation in Bologna, where mayor Matteo Lepore, and Massimo Bugani, director of the city’s “Digital Agenda,” discussed the project. Citizens using the app will be rewarded for things such as recycling, using public transports, managing energy well, and not getting fined.
“Obviously no one will be forced to participate,” he said. “Those who want to will be able to give consent when downloading and using the app.”
OBSERVATION - Incrementalism, luring people towards the global credit system.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
When given the opportunity to explain and justify the Biden administration’s decision to appeal the federal judge’s invalidation of the CDC’s federal mask mandate, Psaki admitted that the White House would fight the ruling in order to “preserve that authority for the CDC to have in the future.” Psaki later said the White House’s focus following the federal judge’s decision was “seeing what power we had to preserve what we felt was in the public health interest of the country.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve said it dozens of times, its not about the disease, its all about power.
State Senator Samuel Bell (D) submitted the punitive bill last month, which orders all Rhode Island residents and taxpayers over 16 years old to receive the COVID-19 injection and boosters mandated by the state’s director of the department of health.
Anybody who violates that order “shall owe twice the amount of personal income taxes” to the state.
OBSERVATION - This could easily be posted under GGR. Power, all about power.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Data released by Freddie Mac has since been published and finds that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have increased during the last week to an average of 5.11%, up from 5% the week before and the highest in over twelve years.
OBSERVATION - Housing market is one of those bell weather sectors gauging economic health. Already posted that sales are dropping and prices are continuing to rise. Question is how hard will the bubble burst? Inflation by itself is pricing many Americans out of the mortgage market, predicted Fed rate increases will eliminate more.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a 50 basis point hike is likely for May and that the Fed expected inflation to peak around this time.
OBSERVATION - Just like ‘transitory inflation”?
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
DHS extends COVID vax mandate for noncitizens entering legally, as illegal entrants remain exempt. Immigration and Customs Enforcement “cannot mandate individuals in detention consent to be vaccinated,” according to agency guidance. Travelers entering the U.S. through legal ports of entry will continue to be forced to show proof of vaccination, no such mandate applies to the record number of illegal immigrants the Biden administration is processing at the southern border.
Biden has signed a bill allowing the Shadow Wolves, a specialized Native American federal tactical unit patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border on the lands of the Tohono O’odham Nation in Arizona, to reclassify as Immigration and Customs Enforcement Special Agents. This bill also directs the federal government to seek out ways to expand the Shadow Wolves program that has been instrumental in stemming the flow of narcotics and human trafficking in the region.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Already noted earlier this week, the easter bunny is biden’s latest handler. . . .
Harris’ chief of staff Tina Flournoy is leaving her position after 15 months — joining a growing list of Harris aides who have called it quits over the past year. The reason Flournoy is bowing out wasn’t made public.
OBSERVATION - Over a dozen staffers have quit over the past few months. Rumors are rampant that working for her is ‘toxic’. That, combined with the dumpster fire she starts everytime she opens her mouth makes propping her up nearly impossible.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
Recent police related killings are driving some local violence.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Musk still causing liberal heads to explode across the inter webs with his attempts to purchase Twitter.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
From the GP, consider the messenger, but the source seems valid.
On January 10, 2021, Kevin McCarthy spoke with several GOP House leaders including Liz Cheney who was third-in-line in the House Republican Caucus at that time.
During the call, McCarthy told Liz Cheney that he would counsel President Trump Trump to resign.
From the call:
Kevin McCarthy: “I think [impeachment resolutions] will pass, and it would be my recommendation you (President Trump) should resign… What he did is unacceptable. Nobody can defend that and nobody should defend it.”
McCarthy also indicated that he believed Twitter and Facebook should delete the accounts of lawmakers who were supporting Trump’s claim of a rigged election. “We can’t put up with that,” he said. “Can’t they take their Twitter accounts away, too?”
...,... Snip.......
For the record — Kevin McCarthy has posted numerous tweets condemning Twitter censorship.
While pushing for it on his fellow party members!
OBSERVATION - The political establishment infesting DC is corrupt to no end, on both sides of the isle.
The Florida House of Representatives followed the State Senate in approving two bills stripping Disney of its special status in Florida.
OBSERVATION - Current front of the culture wars.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
The FBI is warning U.S. industry about BlackCat’s (ALPHV) ransomware-as-a-service since the group compromised sixty organizations last month.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a call with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, wherein Wei conveyed a warning that no one can change Taiwan’s status as part of China. Further, “Wei stated a solemn position over the Taiwan question, as he stressed that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and this is a fact and a status quo no one can change.”
OBSERVATION - Weakness shown by biden on the global stage has emboldened US enemies like China.
China may see food shortages due to supply chain disruptions brought about by its domestic zero-COVID policies. An 87% decrease in trucking and transportation activity due to COVID restrictions has prevented agricultural implements from reaching farmers in time for planting season. Additionally, overzealous local officials have been arresting farmers for violating COVID policies while they are attempting to work their fields during the spring planting season.
China has been on a buying binge seeking grain from other countries, cornering as much as 60+% of the market in some instances.
Tajikistan opened a new gold processing plant in its northern Sughd region last week. The $136 million facility, built by China’s Talco Gold corporation, is expected to produce around 2.2 tons of gold and 21,000 tons of antimony annually. 62% of Tajikistan’s direct foreign investment comes from China.
OBSERVATION - This venture, like many others that China has sponsored, has hooks and if Tajikistan can’t hold up its end of bargain, China will foreclose and take full control.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
*********
A massive fire broke out at a sensitive Russian Defense Ministry research facility in the city of Tver, killing 7. This is a top-secret military research institute working to develop Russia’s newest ballistic missiles. Questions are now being raised as another mysterious large blaze erupted, at the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant, Russia’s largest chemical plant, a mere hours after the fire in Tver. Coincidence?
More evaluation about the health of putin as well as Shoigu, who slurred his words and reading from his notes following a reported heart attack.
The deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District named the goals of the second stage of the invasion of Ukraine:
- Establishing a control over the Donbas;
- Land corridor to Crimea;
- Establishing a control over the southern Ukraine and land corridor to Transnistria.
OBSERVATION - A lot of press in the Russian desire to control the Donbas, these other two are carry overs that I’ve noted many times. The land corridor to Crimea is essentially complete, even without the complete subjugation of Mariupol. The last, complete control of southern Ukraine (land locking the nation) and land corridor to Transnistra may well be a bridge too far given Russian capabilities. So far it is estimated that Russian has lost over 30% of its forces, and those remaining combat effective are struggling with the Donbas effort. The conclusion of the Donbas effort will likely leave too few forces to accomplish the task.
Personnel Issues -
- British MP’s were also reportedly told nearly 3,000 or so Russian Wagner mercenaries had been killed (The Independent reports this). Higher numbers of mercenaries losses are being floated as well. Russia has used them as cannon fodder in many areas like Mariupol.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine is in its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has continued rain. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
U.S Intelligence and Defense Officials now believe that after the delivery of an unannounced number of T-72 Main Battle Tanks from multiple European Countries that the Ukrainian Military now currently operates more tanks within Ukraine than the Russian Military does. Raw numbers of Russian tanks captured by Ukraine alone exceeds its reported losses.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant to report
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
Russian forces continued assaults on Ukrainian positions around Izyum but did not secure any territorial gains. Some observers think these are probing attacks. Izyum is key for a southwest axis to cut off the northern Donbas region. Operations remain largely road-bound though, limiting capabilities.
Russian forces continued to focus their assaults on Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna and likely made local advances in Rubizhne. Those gains are coming at a cost to Russian units though. Intelligence indicates that Russia is directing additional reinforcements to these battles to exploit any gains. However, these advances are largely road bound with off road conditions not conducive to maneuver.
Russian troops also shelled Luhansk region - Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Rubizhne, Hirske
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
With Russia’s declaration of victory in the battle of Mariupol, analysis suggests that it will still be some time before forces are redirected to the Donbas assault. Various intelligence agencies assess that Russian units have taken high casualties in the battle of Mariupol, are degraded, and are unlikely to possess their full complement of personnel. Some units will be necessary to maintain the siege of the Azovstal steel plant as well as deal with pockets of resistance throughout the city.
New mass grave discovered west of Mariupol in Manhush, Ukraine where Russian soldiers have deposited over 200 bodies, satellite image from Maxar shows. New satellite images appear to show expansion of mass graves near the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol which the city council claims could hold as many as 9,000 bodies. “The occupying forces have dug ... a number of mass graves,” said Petro Andrushenko, spokesman for Mayor Vadym Boychenko, on his Telegram account. “Each grave measures 100 feet wide and 100 feet long. Russians are using trucks to deliver the bodies. Then, they simply dump them, a couple at a time.”
According to the most modest reports, there are more than 5,000 dead civilians in Mariupol.
Andrushenko also claims that officials in areas where Russia has already seized are restricting who can be buried.
“To receive any documentation on the death of loved ones in Mariupol, citizens must report all available information on the deceased, place they were buried and passport details,” he wrote. “Only if all that information is given do residents receive a certificate of death and receive the ‘right’ to bury someone at a proper cemetery.”
Efforts are still being made to allow trapped civilians to leave Mariupol, but continue to be blocked by Russia.
Russian troops shelled Huliaipilske, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Temyrivka, Preobrazhenka, Charivne, Uspenivka, Mala Tokmachka, Malynivka, Poltavka, Novoandriivka with tanks, MLRS, howitzers and mortars. This is some of the most intense fire seen in weeks. Probably a precursor to Russians trying to start pushing north within the next few days. The axis for this attack appears to be north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka.
Crimea Front -
Russian troops attempted to advance near Trudolyubivka, Kherson region, but failed. Likely an attempt to resume an advance on Kryvyi Rih.
No significant actions in the Mykolaiv - Kherson sector as both sides appear to be consolidating their positions.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
OUTLOOK -
So far the first week of the Russian Donbas operation has only seen very limited gains by Russian forces. Many observers note that it seems that it has been rushed with forces and logistics not fully in place to support the operation, thus resulting in many of the same problems experienced in the north.
Expect continued Russian pressure southward from Izyum and Rubizhne as well as a developing northward push from Donetsk. Activity in the Crimea front is expected to be limited though there seems to be attempts to resume offensive actions towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhia.
Action in Mariupol expected to remain status quo as Russia tries to switch from a complete destruction of Ukraine forces to a new mission to contain Ukraine forces within the Azovstal steel plant and freeing forces to join the northward push into the Donbas. US estimates that as many as 12 BTGs could be freed up for this operation, however, these units have been heavily attritted and may have limited combat effectiveness, needing rearming and remanning.
Given the stated Russian objectives for this “phase 2” of controlling all the Black Sea coastline all the way to Transnistria, the Russian amphibious operation in the Odesa region is still in play, but just can’t see how they can execute it given the ground force demands in the Donbas and the available forces in western Crimea front. The sinking of the “Moskva” shows that Ukraine has teeth and with even more shore launched anti ship systems in bound, any window of operation is quickly closing. Russian forces from Transnistria could attempt to attack into Ukraine, but are insufficiently supplied and trained to make much difference.
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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Downgraded from RED as Russia has pulled most of its forces out of the country and move them to support Donbas operations.
Russian switch in priorities to eastern Ukraine has resulted in most of the Russian forces staging in Belarus moving to areas closer to the fight.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.
Ukrainian troops are being trained on 120 armored vehicles in the UK. Mastiff, Wolfhound, Husky, Samaritan, Sultan and Samson vehicles all provided. Air Defense training ongoing in Poland.
President of the European Council: had a call with Putin. Strongly urged for immediate humanitarian access and safe passage from #Mariupol and other besieged cities all the more on the occasion of Orthodox Easter.
US-European statement: Those responsible for crimes in areas controlled by Russian forces must be held accountable.
Latvia’s Parliament officially declares Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine a genocide
UK to reopen its embassy in Kyiv
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Tensions as Ramadan riots continue, with Israeli police having to enter the Temple Mount area again to quell moslem rioting.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program as well as spread terror and unrest via its proxy forces through out the region.
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Iraq - YELLOW trending upward *updated 01/28/22*
Turkish security forces have “neutralized” 42 PKK militants since the recent launch of Operation Claw-Lock in northern Iraq, the country’s National Defense Ministry said.
OBSERVATION - Iraq to avoid a direct conflict with Turkey.
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Syria - YELLOW
Russian bombers reappeared over southern countryside of Idlib, striking targets. The pilots probably thankful they are flying unopposed strikes instead of the manpads nest of Ukraine.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - YELLOW
Has its hands full with ISIS insurgency.
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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-22-22
Increased military activity in Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish PKK
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Thank you again...
CW
The world continues to come apart, and my fingers are gettin cramps retrying to keep up with it all here.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
This move for a global pandemic authority has been noted before. GGR presses onward on it. An intergovernmental negotiating body was constituted and held its first meeting at the beginning of March 2022, with the purpose of agreeing on the process and the timelines for reaching consensus on a so-called “Pandemic Treaty”.
A second meeting is planned for 1 August 2022 to discuss progress towards an agreement on the contents and legal bearing of such a treaty. The interim result will then be presented to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim of adopting the new instrument, the so-called infamous “Pandemic Treaty” by 2024. If approved by the World Health Assembly, the Pandemic Treaty will be above and overarching the sovereignty of the 194 WHO member countries.
OBSERVATION - This may or may not supersede US authority. US is a member of WHO, but any “treaty” needs senate confirmation and that membership doesn’t automatically override the US Constitution. The GGR power play is clear and this is the continuing of the effort for global controls.
Famine “porn” continues as the GGR works to shape the narrative to move the world under their control.
Rockefeller Foundation President Rajiv Shah told Bloomberg Television’s David Westin a “massive, immediate food crisis” is on the horizon. Shah provides what could be a timeline for the next global food crisis that could begin “in the next six months.” and that lack of fertilizer and Ukraine war will make matters worse.
Shah’s appearance on Bloomberg is interesting because of the foundation’s repetitive talk about the need for the global food supply to be reset to a more sustainable one. The foundation has closely aligned views with the World Economic Forum (WEF), advocating for a ‘global reset‘.
Rockefeller Foundation’s senior vice president of Food Initiative Roy Steiner recently said, “the world is spending far too much on foods that are bad for people and bad for the planet.” WEF has advocated the need for the global food supply to inject insects into human diets.
OBSERVATION - He who controls the food can control the population. I am concerned about the 6 month window. I’ve noted my concerns of bad economic impacts (worse than what we already have ) as early as this fall. Now a GGR element is pushing a similar time frame.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - GGR this week has been pushing their agenda via three clear subject areas.
1. Global warming
2. Pandemic fears
3. Famine fears.
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Wuhan virus -
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today released new data showing a total of 1,237,647 reports of adverse events following COVID vaccines were submitted between Dec. 14, 2020, and April 15, 2022. The data included a total of 27,349 reports of deaths — an increase of 373 over the previous week — and 222,836 serious injuries, including deaths, during the same time period — up 2,971 compared with the previous week. Of the 12,566 U.S. deaths reported as of April 15, 16% occurred within 24 hours of vaccination, 21% occurred within 48 hours of vaccination and 59% occurred in people who experienced an onset of symptoms within 48 hours of being vaccinated.
OBSERVATION - In the before times, adverse reactions of this magnitude would not have been allowed as jabbing would have been stopped very early on. Those deaths were avoidable.
Not just America, data released by New Zealand indicate that fully vaccinated account for 73% of all Covid-19 deaths across that country since March 2020.
The Washington Post editorial board has a detailed story about a laboratory in Guangzhou, China which was one of the first in the country to genetically sequence COVID-19. The lab had been sent a sample from a hospitalized patient in Wuhan who had some kind of lung infection. A researcher at the lab saw the sequencing results and recognized it as a variant of SARS on December 26, 2019. The lab was silenced and that silence persisted until Jan. 20 when the spread of COVID was first mentioned on state media. Wuhan was finally locked down on Jan. 23. So nearly a full month had passed between the time researchers first alerted people a SARS-like virus had been identified and any real attempt to manage it or warn people about it.
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Economy -
Stocks dropped sharply Friday with the Dow suffering its worst one-day loss since October as investors digested corporate earnings reports and prepared for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Dow went down 981 points. Concerns about inflation and the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed also remained at the forefront of investors’ minds this week. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave investors a clear signal that the central bank is ready to tighten monetary policy more quickly and indicated it was likely to raise interest rates by a half-percentage point at its meeting in May.
OBSERVATION - The Dow has been supported by Fed free money for a long time and with the Fed pulling the plug on those monies the stock prices could collapse quickly. Tinfoil time - all deliberate to push us to GGR ‘salvation’ (controls).
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Invasion of Illegals -
In spite of concerns raised by some Democrats, Biden appears to be standing firm on the decision to end Title 42 — a public health policy that allows officials to deny entry to migrants at the southern border.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Biden on Friday wandered around lost after delivering remarks at Green River College in Auburn, Washington. After his speech, Biden turned around and appeared lost. In that address, Biden promised that all of our military vehicles are now going to be “climate-friendly.”
OBSERVATION - One would say he and his handlers are clueless about the purpose of military I would say they are deliberately damaging our military - A very big difference. His confused, wandering around after making addresses is very evident and clearly showing significant mental melt down.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
See also Raymond Spencer under Domestic terror below.
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Domestic Terror -
Latest count shows that 42 migrants were apprehended at the U.S. southern border with known ties to terrorists and had been there on the terror watch list. It’s widely suspected that many potential terrorists have successfully crossed the boarder without being apprehended.
The latest DC mass shooting suspect, a Filipino American , was found dead inside of a residence with multiple firearms. Raymond Spencer, 23, of Fairfax, Va., is believed to have shot four people, including a child. On the wall of his room was a painting is of Yakub, who the Nation of Islam believes is responsible for creating the white race over 6,500 years ago.
OBSERVATION - Filed here as possible lone wolf terror incident. Interesting combination of a Filipino nation of islam follower.
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China -
Taiwan is in the process of setting up 20-25 squadrons (batteries) to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Rhetoric by Russia’s Kremlin-controlled media describe using hunger as their weapon against the West. They know how to use hunger as a weapon, remember millions of Ukrainians starved to death during the Holodomor.
Russia has 4 submarines deployed in Black Sea. One was seen at the surface recently off the Crimean coast.
Russian Ministry of Defense accusing U.S. in preparation of “provocations with weapons of mass-destruction” in Ukraine
Russia has warned the West again that it considers weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces to be “legitimate targets,” the latest threat. Senior Russian officials have made similar statements periodically since Russian launched its invasion in late February, and the most recent came from Sergei Koshelev, deputy director of the foreign ministry’s North America division.
The Kremlin is additionally setting conditions to create proxy republics in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to cement Russian control over these regions and conscript Ukrainian manpower. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported on April 22 that Russian forces are preventing Ukrainian citizens from leaving these regions and are preparing to conscript military-age men.
Another suspect fires struck Russian today at the College of Aerospace Engineering and Technology. This makes three in the last couple days.
RUMINT -
The Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian authorities arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Osipov and are investigating Black Sea Fleet Chief of Staff Vice Admiral S. Pinchuk, likely for the loss of the Moskva. The GUR additionally reported the commander of the 6th CAA, the commander and deputy commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and the commander of the 22nd Army Corps have all been removed from their posts for unsatisfactory performance.
OBSERVATION - If true, purges of Russian officers are unlikely to improve Russian capabilities, as replacement commanders will likely be less experienced and under intense pressure to achieve likely unreasonable objectives set by the Kremlin.
More RUMINT - is putin taking out Oligarch power players that may be opposing him? Two Russian oligarchs with links to major gas companies were found dead in alleged murder-suicide cases that occurred within 24 hours of each other, Newsweek reports. Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, a former Kremlin official, was found dead in his apartment in Moscow along with his wife and teenage daughter. Russian police say that Avayev apparently shot them before shooting himself. The scene was discovered by his adult daughter, Anastasia, on Monday.
On Tuesday, the bodies of former Novatek deputy chairman Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife, 53-year-old Natalya, and their 18-year-old daughter were found in their mansion in Spain by the couple’s teenage son. Police at the scene found said the two women had been stabbed and Protosenya had hanged himself outside the home.
The deaths come about one month after Russian billionaire Vasily Melnikov, his wife, and their two sons were found dead in their apartment in the country’s sixth-largest city, Nizhny Novgorod. All had been stabbed to death with knives that were found at the scene of the crime. Russian investigators labeled the incident a murder-suicide, but friends and close relatives of the family reportedly have expressed doubts about this theory.
Last February, two prominent Russians were found dead of apparent suicides: oil and gas magnate Mikhail Watford and Gazprom Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center (UCC) for Corporate Security, Alexander Tyulyakov.
OBSERVATION - This is a pattern worth noting.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia says one sailor died and 27 more are missing after missile cruiser Moskva sank, says 396 crew were rescued -RIA news agency. Ship reportedly had a crew of 500. Numbers don’t add up.
Economic Impacts -
- Austria has stopped using oil from Russia,
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A Russian forward C&C was reportedly destroyed overnight in Kherson region by a Ukrainian artillery strike. Intelligence indicated that there were as many as 50 senior and junior officers there at the time. Speculation that perhaps another general too.
OBSERVATION - Kherson has had CPs hit a lot over the past month with substantial deaths to Russian officer corps. This attack may suggest that Ukraine is getting good, actionable HUMINT from resistance elements.
Russian forces have made no major gains in the last 24 hours, despite increased activity, UK intelligence says. Russia, however, claims a range of successes as its air force targeted multiple Ukrainian military facilities overnight.
British intelligence notes that Ukrainian counter-attacks have slowed Russian troops’ offensive in the eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian troops repelled 10 Russian attacks in the Donbas in the last 24 hours. Ukraine’s military also reported that they shot down 14 Russian aerial targets in the last 24 hours: 9 drones, 3 aircraft and 3 helicopters.
I noted in a post over a week ago that Ukrainan attacks are serving to disrupt Russian preparations and operations - the best defense is a good offense. The biggest aspect is Ukrainan ability to strike Russian logistical areas and convoys.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
More than 700 civilians have been killed in the northern city of Chernihiv, the head of the city council Oleksandr Lomako has told the BBC. Three weeks after Russian troops lifted their siege of the city, new graves are still being dug in the main graveyard.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region says towns there are coming under constant shelling.
Ukrainian military liberated Bezruky, Slatyne, Prudianka, north of Kharkiv.
Russian forces conducted localized attacks and reconnoitered Ukrainian positions south of Izyum on April 22 and did not make any advances
Russian forces continued local attacks along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine (continuing to focus on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka) on April 22 and made minor gains around Slovyansk, capturing the town of Lozova. Russian forces additionally consolidated their recently captured positions to prepare for further assaults.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
A Ukrainian source inside Azovstal confirmed that “indiscriminate” bombing of plant still continues. But Russia not storming it as before. Russia seeks to starve out the remaining defenders and civilians in Azovstal and are unlikely to allow trapped civilians to leave. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on April 22 that it will only begin a humanitarian pause in Mariupol when Ukrainian forces “raise white flags” and surrender and claimed that they will run out of food and supplies within two weeks.
Given the Russian position on relief to those civilians sheltering int Azovstal shelters, efforts to allow civilians leave the devastated city of Mariupol on Saturday through a humanitarian corridor - will probably fail.
Russian troops have constructed a second mass grave site about 7 miles from Ukraine’s besieged Mariupol,. Russian troops have dug 40-meter trenches at Vynohradne. Suspected that this is an attempt to conceal war crimes,
Russia had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front. Regional hospital in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast was reportedly hit by a Russian artillery strike.
Crimea Front -
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions west of Kherson and towards Zaporizhia. Actions on both sides suggest consolidation of positions and preparation for further attacks.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Minor pause in the Russia efforts in Eastern Ukraine. However, with improving weather conditions I expect Russian to increase their actions in an effort to gain momentum in their offensive. Decreasing rain will also permit more CAS by the Russian AF to support ground operations. However Ukraine is armed to the teeth with ADA missiles, and I expect a lot of Russian planes to get shot down.
Ukraine will continue to pressure Russian logistical lines and chew up largely road bound Russian attacks. Current track is that Russian loses about 10 tanks per day - that is equivalent to the standard number assigned to BTGs. Its aggressive defense using counter attacks appear to have kept Russia off balance and I suspect they will continue the practice.
I expect that efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces with a southward push from Izyum and northward from Donetsk City via Avdiivka. So far efforts have been stalled.
Russia still has to deal with isolating the Azovstal Steel Plant and this will impede release of forces to go to the Donbas assault. Those units that are released are generally considered to be undermanned/equipped due to losses from the fight.
Crimean forces will continue to try to block Ukrainian efforts towards Kherson to prevent them from cutting off supply lines to the front. Kherson is a key Dniper River crossing that Russia doesn’t want to lose for their planned westward attack to Moldova.
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Europe / NATO General -
Power grid operator in Finland to restrict transmission capacity in cross-border connections with Russia from Sunday due to “the changing international situation”
Moldova’s foreign ministry last night said it had summoned the Russian ambassador to express ‘deep concern’ over comments by a top Kremlin military chief who hinted at future military action in the former Soviet state. Deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, said Russia planned to forge a corridor between Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014, and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
He also hinted Russia’s forces could move further west into Transnistria - internationally recognized as part of Moldova - in order to protect ‘oppressed’ Russia speakers.
Canada has delivered numerous M777 Howitzers and associated munitions. This is Canada’s most advanced artillery system is now in Ukraine.
Finland announced on April 21 that it will send unspecified additional defense material to Ukraine.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that Germany would provide artillery training and maintenance to Ukraine on April 20. She added that Germany had delivered anti-tank weapons, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and “other things that [they] didn’t talk about in public.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederikson announced Denmark will more than double its current military aid to Ukraine during her April 21 trip to Ukraine.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that Spain will send 200 tons of ammunition and other military supplies during the same trip.
The British Ministry of Defense has Announced that they will be Deploying from the Joint Expeditionary Force a Regiment of the Queen’s Royal Hussars, which is a part of the Royal Armored Corps, to Finland to reinforce and conduct exercises alongside Finnish Battlegroups. NOTE - Precursor to Finland’s entry into NATO.
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Israel -
A rocket launched from southern Gaza landed in an open area near a town on the border. Israeli army says an alert was activated in an open area, no siren sounded in town. Two other rockets fell short of their intended target and landed inside the Gaza Strip. In a response, the rocket attacks, Israeli army closed the Erez crossing.
The US embassy in Jerusalem has cautioned American citizens over travel in the city and limited the times when embassy workers and their families can enter the Old City due to recent terror attacks and clashes in the area
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Iraq -
See Turkey below
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Syria -
Pro assad and russian aircraft continue bombing southern countryside of Idlib. In northern Syria, Turkey continues attacking Kurdish forces.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Another biden gift to the Taliban. US forces left at least 2 WESCAM MX-20 high-altitude, long-range EO/IR imaging system (used in Aerostats) in Afghanistan. Taliban arrested a guy who wanted to sell em to Iran. Taliban claim they will restart the aerostat program but will likely sell em, just at a higher price.
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Turkey -
Baghdad’s charge d’affaires was summoned to Turkish Foreign Ministry and told that Turkey is well within its rights to act against designated terrorist group targeting national security
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Misc of Note -
There is a lot of commentary about the suspicion that there is a pattern of fires striking food facilities across the United States suggests that arson team are targeting food facilities for destruction. One source indicated that there have been 18 “facilities” burned since Oct 21. They cast a wide net including a Walmart distribution center, a fertilizer plant and a food bank. These fires have to be set against the context of just how many food processing facilities there are across the country. In that context, these fires are not a substantial number - probably well within norms. What I think is driving this are a few doomer sites that are inflating this in light of already real forecasts of food production shortages. Worth further watch, but I don’t see a direct time/event correlation or facility.
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