The world continues to come apart, and my fingers are gettin cramps retrying to keep up with it all here.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
This move for a global pandemic authority has been noted before. GGR presses onward on it. An intergovernmental negotiating body was constituted and held its first meeting at the beginning of March 2022, with the purpose of agreeing on the process and the timelines for reaching consensus on a so-called “Pandemic Treaty”.
A second meeting is planned for 1 August 2022 to discuss progress towards an agreement on the contents and legal bearing of such a treaty. The interim result will then be presented to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim of adopting the new instrument, the so-called infamous “Pandemic Treaty” by 2024. If approved by the World Health Assembly, the Pandemic Treaty will be above and overarching the sovereignty of the 194 WHO member countries.
OBSERVATION - This may or may not supersede US authority. US is a member of WHO, but any “treaty” needs senate confirmation and that membership doesn’t automatically override the US Constitution. The GGR power play is clear and this is the continuing of the effort for global controls.
Famine “porn” continues as the GGR works to shape the narrative to move the world under their control.
Rockefeller Foundation President Rajiv Shah told Bloomberg Television’s David Westin a “massive, immediate food crisis” is on the horizon. Shah provides what could be a timeline for the next global food crisis that could begin “in the next six months.” and that lack of fertilizer and Ukraine war will make matters worse.
Shah’s appearance on Bloomberg is interesting because of the foundation’s repetitive talk about the need for the global food supply to be reset to a more sustainable one. The foundation has closely aligned views with the World Economic Forum (WEF), advocating for a ‘global reset‘.
Rockefeller Foundation’s senior vice president of Food Initiative Roy Steiner recently said, “the world is spending far too much on foods that are bad for people and bad for the planet.” WEF has advocated the need for the global food supply to inject insects into human diets.
OBSERVATION - He who controls the food can control the population. I am concerned about the 6 month window. I’ve noted my concerns of bad economic impacts (worse than what we already have ) as early as this fall. Now a GGR element is pushing a similar time frame.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - GGR this week has been pushing their agenda via three clear subject areas.
1. Global warming
2. Pandemic fears
3. Famine fears.
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Wuhan virus -
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today released new data showing a total of 1,237,647 reports of adverse events following COVID vaccines were submitted between Dec. 14, 2020, and April 15, 2022. The data included a total of 27,349 reports of deaths — an increase of 373 over the previous week — and 222,836 serious injuries, including deaths, during the same time period — up 2,971 compared with the previous week. Of the 12,566 U.S. deaths reported as of April 15, 16% occurred within 24 hours of vaccination, 21% occurred within 48 hours of vaccination and 59% occurred in people who experienced an onset of symptoms within 48 hours of being vaccinated.
OBSERVATION - In the before times, adverse reactions of this magnitude would not have been allowed as jabbing would have been stopped very early on. Those deaths were avoidable.
Not just America, data released by New Zealand indicate that fully vaccinated account for 73% of all Covid-19 deaths across that country since March 2020.
The Washington Post editorial board has a detailed story about a laboratory in Guangzhou, China which was one of the first in the country to genetically sequence COVID-19. The lab had been sent a sample from a hospitalized patient in Wuhan who had some kind of lung infection. A researcher at the lab saw the sequencing results and recognized it as a variant of SARS on December 26, 2019. The lab was silenced and that silence persisted until Jan. 20 when the spread of COVID was first mentioned on state media. Wuhan was finally locked down on Jan. 23. So nearly a full month had passed between the time researchers first alerted people a SARS-like virus had been identified and any real attempt to manage it or warn people about it.
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Economy -
Stocks dropped sharply Friday with the Dow suffering its worst one-day loss since October as investors digested corporate earnings reports and prepared for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Dow went down 981 points. Concerns about inflation and the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed also remained at the forefront of investors’ minds this week. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave investors a clear signal that the central bank is ready to tighten monetary policy more quickly and indicated it was likely to raise interest rates by a half-percentage point at its meeting in May.
OBSERVATION - The Dow has been supported by Fed free money for a long time and with the Fed pulling the plug on those monies the stock prices could collapse quickly. Tinfoil time - all deliberate to push us to GGR ‘salvation’ (controls).
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Invasion of Illegals -
In spite of concerns raised by some Democrats, Biden appears to be standing firm on the decision to end Title 42 — a public health policy that allows officials to deny entry to migrants at the southern border.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Biden on Friday wandered around lost after delivering remarks at Green River College in Auburn, Washington. After his speech, Biden turned around and appeared lost. In that address, Biden promised that all of our military vehicles are now going to be “climate-friendly.”
OBSERVATION - One would say he and his handlers are clueless about the purpose of military I would say they are deliberately damaging our military - A very big difference. His confused, wandering around after making addresses is very evident and clearly showing significant mental melt down.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
See also Raymond Spencer under Domestic terror below.
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Domestic Terror -
Latest count shows that 42 migrants were apprehended at the U.S. southern border with known ties to terrorists and had been there on the terror watch list. It’s widely suspected that many potential terrorists have successfully crossed the boarder without being apprehended.
The latest DC mass shooting suspect, a Filipino American , was found dead inside of a residence with multiple firearms. Raymond Spencer, 23, of Fairfax, Va., is believed to have shot four people, including a child. On the wall of his room was a painting is of Yakub, who the Nation of Islam believes is responsible for creating the white race over 6,500 years ago.
OBSERVATION - Filed here as possible lone wolf terror incident. Interesting combination of a Filipino nation of islam follower.
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China -
Taiwan is in the process of setting up 20-25 squadrons (batteries) to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Rhetoric by Russia’s Kremlin-controlled media describe using hunger as their weapon against the West. They know how to use hunger as a weapon, remember millions of Ukrainians starved to death during the Holodomor.
Russia has 4 submarines deployed in Black Sea. One was seen at the surface recently off the Crimean coast.
Russian Ministry of Defense accusing U.S. in preparation of “provocations with weapons of mass-destruction” in Ukraine
Russia has warned the West again that it considers weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces to be “legitimate targets,” the latest threat. Senior Russian officials have made similar statements periodically since Russian launched its invasion in late February, and the most recent came from Sergei Koshelev, deputy director of the foreign ministry’s North America division.
The Kremlin is additionally setting conditions to create proxy republics in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to cement Russian control over these regions and conscript Ukrainian manpower. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported on April 22 that Russian forces are preventing Ukrainian citizens from leaving these regions and are preparing to conscript military-age men.
Another suspect fires struck Russian today at the College of Aerospace Engineering and Technology. This makes three in the last couple days.
RUMINT -
The Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian authorities arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Osipov and are investigating Black Sea Fleet Chief of Staff Vice Admiral S. Pinchuk, likely for the loss of the Moskva. The GUR additionally reported the commander of the 6th CAA, the commander and deputy commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and the commander of the 22nd Army Corps have all been removed from their posts for unsatisfactory performance.
OBSERVATION - If true, purges of Russian officers are unlikely to improve Russian capabilities, as replacement commanders will likely be less experienced and under intense pressure to achieve likely unreasonable objectives set by the Kremlin.
More RUMINT - is putin taking out Oligarch power players that may be opposing him? Two Russian oligarchs with links to major gas companies were found dead in alleged murder-suicide cases that occurred within 24 hours of each other, Newsweek reports. Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, a former Kremlin official, was found dead in his apartment in Moscow along with his wife and teenage daughter. Russian police say that Avayev apparently shot them before shooting himself. The scene was discovered by his adult daughter, Anastasia, on Monday.
On Tuesday, the bodies of former Novatek deputy chairman Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife, 53-year-old Natalya, and their 18-year-old daughter were found in their mansion in Spain by the couple’s teenage son. Police at the scene found said the two women had been stabbed and Protosenya had hanged himself outside the home.
The deaths come about one month after Russian billionaire Vasily Melnikov, his wife, and their two sons were found dead in their apartment in the country’s sixth-largest city, Nizhny Novgorod. All had been stabbed to death with knives that were found at the scene of the crime. Russian investigators labeled the incident a murder-suicide, but friends and close relatives of the family reportedly have expressed doubts about this theory.
Last February, two prominent Russians were found dead of apparent suicides: oil and gas magnate Mikhail Watford and Gazprom Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center (UCC) for Corporate Security, Alexander Tyulyakov.
OBSERVATION - This is a pattern worth noting.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia says one sailor died and 27 more are missing after missile cruiser Moskva sank, says 396 crew were rescued -RIA news agency. Ship reportedly had a crew of 500. Numbers don’t add up.
Economic Impacts -
- Austria has stopped using oil from Russia,
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A Russian forward C&C was reportedly destroyed overnight in Kherson region by a Ukrainian artillery strike. Intelligence indicated that there were as many as 50 senior and junior officers there at the time. Speculation that perhaps another general too.
OBSERVATION - Kherson has had CPs hit a lot over the past month with substantial deaths to Russian officer corps. This attack may suggest that Ukraine is getting good, actionable HUMINT from resistance elements.
Russian forces have made no major gains in the last 24 hours, despite increased activity, UK intelligence says. Russia, however, claims a range of successes as its air force targeted multiple Ukrainian military facilities overnight.
British intelligence notes that Ukrainian counter-attacks have slowed Russian troops’ offensive in the eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian troops repelled 10 Russian attacks in the Donbas in the last 24 hours. Ukraine’s military also reported that they shot down 14 Russian aerial targets in the last 24 hours: 9 drones, 3 aircraft and 3 helicopters.
I noted in a post over a week ago that Ukrainan attacks are serving to disrupt Russian preparations and operations - the best defense is a good offense. The biggest aspect is Ukrainan ability to strike Russian logistical areas and convoys.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
More than 700 civilians have been killed in the northern city of Chernihiv, the head of the city council Oleksandr Lomako has told the BBC. Three weeks after Russian troops lifted their siege of the city, new graves are still being dug in the main graveyard.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region says towns there are coming under constant shelling.
Ukrainian military liberated Bezruky, Slatyne, Prudianka, north of Kharkiv.
Russian forces conducted localized attacks and reconnoitered Ukrainian positions south of Izyum on April 22 and did not make any advances
Russian forces continued local attacks along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine (continuing to focus on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka) on April 22 and made minor gains around Slovyansk, capturing the town of Lozova. Russian forces additionally consolidated their recently captured positions to prepare for further assaults.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
A Ukrainian source inside Azovstal confirmed that “indiscriminate” bombing of plant still continues. But Russia not storming it as before. Russia seeks to starve out the remaining defenders and civilians in Azovstal and are unlikely to allow trapped civilians to leave. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on April 22 that it will only begin a humanitarian pause in Mariupol when Ukrainian forces “raise white flags” and surrender and claimed that they will run out of food and supplies within two weeks.
Given the Russian position on relief to those civilians sheltering int Azovstal shelters, efforts to allow civilians leave the devastated city of Mariupol on Saturday through a humanitarian corridor - will probably fail.
Russian troops have constructed a second mass grave site about 7 miles from Ukraine’s besieged Mariupol,. Russian troops have dug 40-meter trenches at Vynohradne. Suspected that this is an attempt to conceal war crimes,
Russia had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front. Regional hospital in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast was reportedly hit by a Russian artillery strike.
Crimea Front -
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions west of Kherson and towards Zaporizhia. Actions on both sides suggest consolidation of positions and preparation for further attacks.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Minor pause in the Russia efforts in Eastern Ukraine. However, with improving weather conditions I expect Russian to increase their actions in an effort to gain momentum in their offensive. Decreasing rain will also permit more CAS by the Russian AF to support ground operations. However Ukraine is armed to the teeth with ADA missiles, and I expect a lot of Russian planes to get shot down.
Ukraine will continue to pressure Russian logistical lines and chew up largely road bound Russian attacks. Current track is that Russian loses about 10 tanks per day - that is equivalent to the standard number assigned to BTGs. Its aggressive defense using counter attacks appear to have kept Russia off balance and I suspect they will continue the practice.
I expect that efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces with a southward push from Izyum and northward from Donetsk City via Avdiivka. So far efforts have been stalled.
Russia still has to deal with isolating the Azovstal Steel Plant and this will impede release of forces to go to the Donbas assault. Those units that are released are generally considered to be undermanned/equipped due to losses from the fight.
Crimean forces will continue to try to block Ukrainian efforts towards Kherson to prevent them from cutting off supply lines to the front. Kherson is a key Dniper River crossing that Russia doesn’t want to lose for their planned westward attack to Moldova.
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Europe / NATO General -
Power grid operator in Finland to restrict transmission capacity in cross-border connections with Russia from Sunday due to “the changing international situation”
Moldova’s foreign ministry last night said it had summoned the Russian ambassador to express ‘deep concern’ over comments by a top Kremlin military chief who hinted at future military action in the former Soviet state. Deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, said Russia planned to forge a corridor between Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014, and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
He also hinted Russia’s forces could move further west into Transnistria - internationally recognized as part of Moldova - in order to protect ‘oppressed’ Russia speakers.
Canada has delivered numerous M777 Howitzers and associated munitions. This is Canada’s most advanced artillery system is now in Ukraine.
Finland announced on April 21 that it will send unspecified additional defense material to Ukraine.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that Germany would provide artillery training and maintenance to Ukraine on April 20. She added that Germany had delivered anti-tank weapons, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and “other things that [they] didn’t talk about in public.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederikson announced Denmark will more than double its current military aid to Ukraine during her April 21 trip to Ukraine.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that Spain will send 200 tons of ammunition and other military supplies during the same trip.
The British Ministry of Defense has Announced that they will be Deploying from the Joint Expeditionary Force a Regiment of the Queen’s Royal Hussars, which is a part of the Royal Armored Corps, to Finland to reinforce and conduct exercises alongside Finnish Battlegroups. NOTE - Precursor to Finland’s entry into NATO.
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Israel -
A rocket launched from southern Gaza landed in an open area near a town on the border. Israeli army says an alert was activated in an open area, no siren sounded in town. Two other rockets fell short of their intended target and landed inside the Gaza Strip. In a response, the rocket attacks, Israeli army closed the Erez crossing.
The US embassy in Jerusalem has cautioned American citizens over travel in the city and limited the times when embassy workers and their families can enter the Old City due to recent terror attacks and clashes in the area
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Iraq -
See Turkey below
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Syria -
Pro assad and russian aircraft continue bombing southern countryside of Idlib. In northern Syria, Turkey continues attacking Kurdish forces.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Another biden gift to the Taliban. US forces left at least 2 WESCAM MX-20 high-altitude, long-range EO/IR imaging system (used in Aerostats) in Afghanistan. Taliban arrested a guy who wanted to sell em to Iran. Taliban claim they will restart the aerostat program but will likely sell em, just at a higher price.
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Turkey -
Baghdad’s charge d’affaires was summoned to Turkish Foreign Ministry and told that Turkey is well within its rights to act against designated terrorist group targeting national security
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Misc of Note -
There is a lot of commentary about the suspicion that there is a pattern of fires striking food facilities across the United States suggests that arson team are targeting food facilities for destruction. One source indicated that there have been 18 “facilities” burned since Oct 21. They cast a wide net including a Walmart distribution center, a fertilizer plant and a food bank. These fires have to be set against the context of just how many food processing facilities there are across the country. In that context, these fires are not a substantial number - probably well within norms. What I think is driving this are a few doomer sites that are inflating this in light of already real forecasts of food production shortages. Worth further watch, but I don’t see a direct time/event correlation or facility.
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What I question is what people are heading this Great Reset? Where and when do they meet? Currently it looks like European bodies such as EC , IMF and so on have their own sphere of authority but who directly is conducting this Global Reset?
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Wuhan virus -
An investigation into publicly available data from Public Health Scotland (PHS) shows that there has been a massive surge in teenagers and young adults suffering heart attacks and other heart complications since the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines emerged.
OBSERVATION - Now over 2 years into this ‘pandemic’ the numbers are becoming undeniable. These impacts are seen globally, not just Scotland. These ‘vaccines’ have done more harm than good.
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Economy -
Reports coming out that Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest home lender among US banks , has begun laying off mortgage staff after reporting a sharp decline in home lending revenues in the first quarter of 2022.
OBSERVATION - Another sign that not only is the housing bubble imploding, but that recession is close on its heels
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Invasion of Illegals -
The White House refuses to follow the law and ignores the Consitution on immigration law, a trend that will continue even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Texas and against President Joe Biden’s lawsuit over stopping the “remain in Mexico” policy, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said Saturday on Newsmax.
“It appears to me that even when we get court orders and injunctions against the Biden administration, not only do they have a disdain for following federal law and following their constitutional role, they have a disdain for any court order that is against their positions,” Paxton told Newsmax’s “Saturday Report.”
OBSERVATION - Once again i’ll point this out - biden sees courts as nuances and will (and has on many issues) ignore court orders/decisions, tying them up with appeals knowing the bloated court system will takes months/years to come to the USSC and even then play games with the ‘response’, triggering the lawsuit/appeals cycle all over again . Formally, this is known as lawlessness. And no where has he played this card more than the immigration issue.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Red and blue states are rapidly moving further apart on hot-button social issues as lawmakers and activists shift their focus to topics like abortion and transgenderism.
OBSERVATION - This divide is in part why we’ve seen the largest internal migration of people out of blue states and into red states, making them redder. Add to it the task of a ‘great divorce’ from both sides, the risk that a conventional civil war scenario increases.
Regardless of what you think of her or her statements, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.) place on the ballot for being an “insurrectionist” is just the tip of the iceberg of the lawfare democrats will try to invoke this midterms.
OBSERVATION - Such tactics suggest the desperation the democrats are feeling under current polling trends showing a red tsunami this fall. This desperation has also triggered some conspiracy theories that democrats will trigger some sort of a disaster whereby the elections are cancelled (such as martial law) or totally corrupted. Remember, democrats have expressed a willingness to essentially burn this country down as long as they can rule over the ashes (rant off)
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Cyber Warfare -
The FBI’s Cyber Division published a notice this past week warning about increased cyber-attack threats on agricultural cooperatives.
“Ransomware actors may be more likely to attack agricultural cooperatives during critical planting and harvest seasons, disrupting operations, causing financial loss, and negatively impacting the food supply chain,” the notice read, adding 2021 and early 2022 ransomware attacks on farming co-ops could affect the current planting season “by disrupting the supply of seeds and fertilizer.”
The agency warned, “A significant disruption of grain production could impact the entire food chain, since grain is not only consumed by humans but also used for animal feed ... In addition, a significant disruption of grain and corn production could impact commodities trading and stocks. “
OBSERVATION - Some are linking this to the theory that fires over the course of the last year at ‘food processing’ facilities are terror strikes. These ransomware cyber attacks are more real than the fire theorists. Ransomware attacks have been very wide spread across many sectors of the economy and even government sectors.
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China -
5 PLA aircraft (four J-16 and one KA-28 ASW) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on April 23, 2022.
OBSERVATION - These incursions are on a nearly daily basis, many times info that this has occurred have been buried under other global reporting, like the Ukraine war.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korean Air Koryo planes have been flying across the country in a further sign that a military parade is imminent.
Soliders and civilian practice for an apparent parade is continuing, based on satellite imagery.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian trying to gaslight the US and Ukraine, Russian Ministry of Defense accusing U.S. is preparing “provocations with weapons of mass-destruction” in Ukraine. The Kremlin also continues to falsely blame Ukrainian forces for planning or conducting “provocations” in areas where Russian forces intend to commit or have already committed atrocities.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Three Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence’s intelligence directorate has said. Two on site and the third after being evac’d to a hospital. The Ukrainian military on Friday hit the command post of Russia’s 49th army near occupied regional capital Kherson, according to the statement. Unconfirmed reports was that this HQ hit yesterday was at the Kherson airport. Same airport struck last month killing a general and sr staff.
- A lot of analysis of just what a BTGs is defined as following two months of devastating losses. Not clear what are bering calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet today with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Kyiv.
Air raid sirens operated through out much of Ukraine over the last 24 hours as Russia launched several waves of cruse missile attacks. Following previous pattern, the areas targeted have largely been civilian residential areas - apartment buildings and the like.
Russian ground operations were only able to make limited and localized advances. Various analysts and observers note that Russia continues to piecemeal its forces into combat across numerous locations and hasn’t concentrated them into defined zones. It is also assessed that the withdrawn units from the north have been put into combat in eastern Ukraine with very little to no consolidation or refit.
In places where Russia appears to have gained ground, some view it as Ukrainian forces conducting a tactical retreat in some areas, blowning bridges, and at the same time positioning for a counter attacks to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive.
The reported loss of three more Russian generals, and an unknown number of other senior officers near Kherson displays that Russia has serious OPSEC issues that haven’t been addressed. Not announced (nor expected to be) source of the intel that targeted the attack, documented unsecure comms or even good HUMINT notification are likely.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Yesterday Russian troops shelled border villages in Sumy region. Damage reported to houses in Atynske and Boiaro-Lezhachi
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region says towns there are coming under constant shelling.
Ukrainian counter attacks to the east from the Kharkiv region continue to place Russian logistical lines to operations further south at risk. This is forcing Russia to divert some elements to protect against these attacks, weakening the total force for the Donbas offensive. Reports of Russian reinforcements from the Kyiv area being assigned to Kharkiv Oblast likely indicate those Russian concerns.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks from Izyum and managed to seized Lozova, approximately 100 km west of Izyum. As the map link above shows, this is a VERY road bound assault. Russian operations now appear that one of the objectives is to reach the Izyum-Debaltseve road along two or more axes to facilitate encirclement of Ukrainian forces.
Further south, Russian forces conducted limited ground offensives in Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka but did not make any significant territorial gains. Ukraine’s General Staff says Russian troops are preparing for an assault on Severodonetsk and as it was under heavy artillery assault over the last 24 hours. This city is important, the Russians and especially the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Lugansk who have been trying to take it for 3 weeks, so far with many casualties and without success.
Fighting has also been intense in other towns in the southern part of this front. Russian making small gains, but at great loss of personnel and equipment.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
An aide to office of President of Ukraine Podolyak stated that Russian troops are attacking Azovstal non-stop. Russia has stopped several attempts (based on agreements with Russia) to evacuate civilians from the steel factory and other areas.
There is continued reports that Russia is planning on forcibly conscripting civilians in Maripol (as well as other captured towns). This has brought a warning from UK Defence Ministry.
“Any enlistment of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian armed forces, even if presented by Russia as being voluntary or military service in accordance with Russian law, would constitute a violation of article 51 of the fourth Geneva Convention”
Russia/separatist forces have had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front. Social media has confirmed that Russian forces from around Mariupol are redeploying to the vicinity of Donetsk City. It is believed that they are likely to enter combat again soon and without rest or refit.
Crimea Front -
Russia’s defense ministry says its troops have conducted a missile strike on a depot containing weapons delivered by the US and European countries to Ukrainian forces near Odessa. The FACT is these missiles hit residential apartments in the city, killing civilians. Videos show a block of flats were among the buildings hit in the strike and officials reported that Russia fired at least six cruise missiles.
Russia may be using its submarines to launch cruse missile attacks. Russians were spotted loading these onto Kilo-class submarines in Sevastopol several days ago. The Black Sea fleet may still be scared of Ukrainan anti-ship weapons and view the submarines as a less exposed target to them.
In what appears to be a rising partisan revolt to Russian occupation, residents of Kherson and Melitopol put psychological pressure on the Russian occupiers. People are making and distributing leaflets with warnings to the enemies. They remind the Russians that they are not happy and they will not stay here for long. The leaflet reads: “Russian invader, know this: Melitopol is Ukraine. Every resident of Melitopol is a partisan! Expect them!”
Russian forces continued a limited offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast but paused ground offensive operations in northern Kherson Oblast . Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city appear to be struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Improving weather conditions may cause Russia to increase its attacks across the Donbas front. Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis.
Otherwise, it appears that more of the same is in store - widespread, poorly to uncoordinated Russian attacks that may gain a little terrain, but at signifiant losses of men and machines.
Russia also appears to be resuming is indiscriminate bombing/artillery of cities - urban terror of civilians.
As Russia seems to try to get a more coordinated attack together (assumed by some), Ukraine continues to benefit from western resupply efforts.
Attention is being drawn to a strategic bridge that connects Crimea to Russian mainland. It has been used heavily to haul war supplies into Crimea. Under conventional thought, it is safe from Ukraine interdiction. However Ukraine has been surprising on it innovation and may be planning an attack to disable the bridge. Something to watch for.
FINALLY, the loss of three more Russian generals and a bunch of other senior officers will put further kinks in Russian command and control. Poor communications have plagued the operation from the start and apparently they haven’t been solved. It is likely that these generals and staffs were meeting to coordinate operations. If so, those coordination of activity are gone, leaving the different groups to continue on their independent ways. It is still mind boggling that Russian has lost so many generals and senior officer in less than two months.
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Poland -
Russian diplomats expelled by Poland were targeting Ukrainian refugees, “even in contact with them and blackmailing them with the fate of their families in Ukraine,” says a Polish official.
Ukraine & Poland will create joint logistics company to enhance railway transportation.
It is one of the points agreed by Ukrainian & Polish Prime-Ministers today during a meeting.
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Europe / NATO General -
Elections today in France pitting President Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. All of the pre-election surveys show Macron with a comfortable 10-point lead over Le Pen, but if the election comes out this way it will be a major narrowing from the last election in 2017, which Macron won over Le Pen by a 66 – 33% margin. In other words, while 2017 was a landslide, this election shows the shift in momentum in French opinion.
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Iraq -
Turkey’s latest offensive in Iraq appears to have one objective: Sealing the remaining PKK pathway in Zap to Turkey.
This could end the 40-year-long PKK infiltrations, however, at a cost to Iraqi rights.
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Turkey -
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military aircraft that transports soldiers to Syria after notifying Moscow: Turkish Foreign Minister via TRT.
OBSERVATION - Kind of a mushy ‘closure’, not a total closure.
Turkey is ready to give all possible assistance during the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a telephone call, the Turkish presidency said on Sunday.
Erdogan said the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Ukraine’s Mariupol must be ensured, adding that Turkey viewed the guarantor issue positively in principle.
See Iraq above on incursion.
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Misc of Note -
Another look at the food processing site squirrel. Let’s keep this in perspective. There are about 36,486 plants in the country - even if including all the reported sites (18), this is way less than 1% .