Replies

Wuhan virus -

The WHO has added BA.4 and BA.5 to its monitoring list because of their “additional mutations that need to be further studied to understand their impact on immune escape potential,”
OBSERVATION - Trying to find a variant that they can use to instill fear back into the sheeple.
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Economy -

The US inflation numbers were released yesterday and they were worse than predicted. Inflation YoY grew to 8.5%. With 8.5% YoY inflation, REAL average hourly earnings growth fell to -3% YoY.
And with The Fed intent on extinguishing their part of the inflation, Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate rose to 5.14%.

OBSERVATION - According to some number crunching, the Fed should have its rates somewhere in the 11% range to “combat” this level of inflation. Pundants just don’t see any end to these high levels, and some predicting even worse.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Even nature knows he’s gone over the coocoo’s nest. A bird pooped on Biden’s shoulder during his speech in Iowa, during his speech in Menlo, Iowa on 4/12/2022.
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Domestic Terror -

NYPD is searching for Frank James , suspect in a shooting on a NY subway yesterday. The attack injured more than 20 people including 10 who were wounded by gunfire. After setting off a smoke device, he fired about 33 rounds before his gun jammed. Most wounded appeared to have been hit below the waist and in the legs.

It has come out that James was on the FBI’s terror watch list until 2019 and as recently as of a couple hours ago still had active twitter and FB pages where his posts showed an affiliation to Malcom X and Elijah Mohammad as well as other Black Nationalist causes.

OBSERVATION - Media and officials have been steering away from calling this a ‘terror’ incident, likely because it goes against the narrative of the biggest threat are white nationalists. Now the latest two mass attacks, this and the shootout in Sacramento, have been conducted by blacks.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The nuclear-powered USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are located in international waters off South Korea’s southeastern coast. They are conducting bilateral operations with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force, said Lt. Mark Langford, a U.S. Navy spokesperson, The Hill reported.
“Routine bilateral operations like this one, reassure our allies and partners of the U.S. commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific,”

OBSERVATION - This also sends a message to NK the it shouldn’t think about getting too froggy.

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China -

Taiwan issued its first war handbook advising citizens how to respond in the wake of an attack, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises fears of a Chinese incursion at home.
OBSERVATION - Both China and Tawian are looking closely at the Russia/Ukraine war to glean lessons learned for their eventual conflict. Probably for China, the importance of consoliated chain of command and logistics and Taiwan the capability of small hunter/killer teams along with tactical flexibility and adaptability.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -

Japan has been asked to join AUKUS, will work together in areas such as electronic ware ware & hypersonic technology.
OBSERVATION - China’s expansionism has had a negative impact by pushing Japan to become more military alert and prepared. It has the potential to become a significant regional military force and current events have it moving in that direction. Counter China alliances are growing and strengthening as well.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv has ended - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war. We are 49 DAYS into a 48 HOUR operations to capture the country.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. In some locations, this has resulted in a complete withdrawal, as with the Kyiv region. Other areas have switched to an economy of force/defensive posture to free up additional forces to fight in SE Ukraine. Personnel and equipment are being brought in to build back as many BTGs as possible for this next phase of combat.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin has reportedly conducted a mass purge of 150 Russian intelligence agents, according to numerous media outlets. The move came Monday night against agents of the FSB intelligence service — the successor to the KGB, the Daily Mail reported. Some of the officers were also arrested.
OBSERVATION - Report are that these officers supported the now clearly inaccurate assessment that Russia would win the war in a cake walk, in just a matter of a couple days.

Putin says Ukraine peace/ceasefire talks are in dead-end — RIA

Secretary of State Antony Blinken: The US has ‘credible information’ Russia may use ‘chemical agents’ against Ukrainian troops and civilians. US unable to confirm or deny the earlier reported chemical attack in Maripol.

Economic Impacts -
- Argentina and Chile halt lithium supplies to Russia. The country is thus able to obtain this raw material only from Bolivia

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukrainian forces captured Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch and close Putin ally. He is the Godfather to Putin’s children. He was caught hiding in the ‘woods’. Rumors are that he may be a part of a future POW exchange with Russia.

Western/NATO countries are increasing the type and quantities of weapon systems, arms and munitions being shipped to Ukraine. So far Russia has failed to interdict the flow of these materials.

The defenders of Maripol are still holding on, but there are reports of surrenders as the fighters are running out of ammunition and food.

Russia is jamming GPS satellite signals in Ukraine, US Space Force says

Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. It doesn’t appear that Russian has not yet committed new units or units previously withdrawn from other axes to the offensive.
Those operations being conducted in eastern Ukraine resulted in Russian assaults being turned back with no territorial gains. Very heavy artillery and bombing of the region by Russians.

Kyiv front -
More mass graves of civilian being discovered in Bucha.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Intense bombing and artillery strikes continue to hit Kharkiv and surrounding suburbs and towns overnight. In part the artillery is designed to keep Ukrainan forces pinned and allow units to pass by to the east of Khariv. This has not stopped Ukrainan strikes on Russian convoys, inflicting a lot of armor and vehicle losses.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. There are reports that Ukrainan elements are surrendering as ammo and food have runout. The mayor says that there are 100K needing evacuation.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces did not make any advances against Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast and continued to attempt to improve their defensive positions. Ukraine continues to push Russian forces southward from Kryvyi Rlh towards Kherson.

Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.

OUTLOOK -
Some observers are noting that the tempo and intensity of Russian attacks in Eastern Ukraine have dropped recently. One could consider these attacks probing or reconnaissance in force operations that will eventually lead to the anticipated big Russian offensive.

Hard to evaluate are the difficulties Russia is having reconstituting northern force and readying them to reenter combat. There have been a couple bases identified in Russia just east of Khariv that are set up to try to accomplish this. Other logistical constipation appears to be still ongoing.

Maripol is set to fall within days now. Controlled territory and ammo/personnel supples are shrinking for defenders.
The race is on for Ukraine to integrate these into their forces before Russian is ready to kickoff their offensive.

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Europe / NATO General -

Croatia has told 24 Russian embassy staff to leave over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “brutal aggression”

The U.S. says it will not object to Slovakia’s potential transfer of MiG jets to Ukraine

Poland arrests a Russian national for espionage

Sweden announced it will apply for NATO membership in June. Finland also expected to announce membership application this summer as well.

Presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are heading to Kyiv to meet president Zelenskyy.

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Pakistan -

Tempered peace following recent parliamentary ouster of now former PM.
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Israel -

Israeli army says 20 Palestinians suspected of terror activity arrested in overnight raids in the West Bank. Biggest of these raids was against terrorists in Jenin.
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Wuhan virus -

The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it is extending the nationwide mask requirement for public transit for 15 days as it monitors an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was extending the order, which was set to expire on April 18, until May 3 to allow more time to study the BA.2 omicron subvariant that is now responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Excuses, excuses.

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Economy -

FLASHBACK - In July 2021, White House press secretary Jen Psaki argued that the spike in inflation would not be a permanent adjustment, telling reporters “that these impacts are temporary.”
NOW - The producer price index for final demand increased 1.4% after rising 0.9% in February, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through March, the PPI jumped 11.2%, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010, after advancing 10.3% in February.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 1.1% and accelerating 10.6% year-on-year.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Jim Bullard warns that it’s “fantasy” to think the Fed can tackle inflation through rising interest rates. “There’s a bit of a fantasy, I think, in current policy in central banks [hiking interest rates back to “neutral.”] Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation… Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough, it doesn’t look like,” Bullard said.
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Invasion of Illegals -

In efforts to increase security, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Department of Public Safety to conduct “enhanced searches” of Mexican tractor trailers last week at checkpoints coming from the Mexican border. On Monday, Mexican truckers began parking at border crossings on the Mexico-Texas border to protest against the enhanced searches. Mexican truckers say they already go through federal security checkpoints and shouldn’t need additional screenings by Texas law enforcement officials.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Grand Rapids PD officer killed a black man after violently resisting arrest & trying to take the cop’s taser, has a conviction for assaulting a pregnant woman in Kentwood County. Antifa & the left are calling for violence as revenge for his death.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Elon Musk putting forth a hostile takeover of Twitter with a 43 billion dollar offer. More liberal heads exploding.
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Domestic Terror -

NYPD reports that Frank James has been arrested. Terrorism charges are currently included. His rap sheet includes 9 previous arrests in NY alone. Social media posts show him to be a Black Nationalism supporter.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -

Last month, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force commissioned JS Kumano, the first of its new Mogami-class multi-role frigates. The warship was built at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facility in Tamano and is the first of a planned class of 22 ships that are destined to replace the fleet’s aging Abukuma-class destroyer escorts and Asagiri-class light destroyers. The Mogami-class program is the latest in a series of projects that are upgrading the capabilities of the JMSDF, which is one of the largest navies in the world.

OBSERVATION - Japan cant match the volume of Chinese naval growth, but can offset some of that through high tech multi role capable ships carrying more bang for the buck.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now in the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia is threatening air strikes on Kyiv as retribution for what it claims is Ukraine’s sabotage efforts and missile attacks on Russian territories.
“If cases of sabotage and shelling continue, Russian armed forces will strike the place where such decisions are being made,” the statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense read. “Kyiv will be one of the targets, despite the fact that Russia has so far avoided bombing the capital.”

OBSERVATION - The hypocrisy is evident here by Russia. Kyiv has been directly attacked, 208 residential buildings, 46 schools, and 17 hospitals damaged since the start of the war Feb. 24, according to statistics released by the Kyiv Regional Administration.

Russian heavy weapons including missile systems have been seen moving towards the border with Finland, hours after Russia warned its northern neighbor against joining NATO.
An unconfirmed video uploaded last night appears to show two Russian coastal defense missile systems moving along a road on the Russian side of the border that leads to Helsinki. The missile systems are thought to be the K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense system, designed to take out surface ships up to and including aircraft carrier battle groups.

OBSERVATION - This is just saber rattling, Russia does’t have the capability to attack Finland with the bulk of their active forces engaged in Ukraine. If Russia tries to use these missiles to close off sea access would result in a major response from NATO Baltic countries in addition to Finland.

Deputy secretary of Russian Security council Medvedev threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in Baltic Sea region in case of Finland and Sweden join NATO.
The Lithuanian Defense Minister called the Russian threat strange, stressing that the international community is well aware that Russian nuclear weapons are already in the Kaliningrad Oblast.

RUMINT -
Allegedly Putin has directed that Ukrainan cities that refuse to capitulate to the invasion be razed to the ground in order to get the operation done before May 10th.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Observed in the Moscow metro, military recruitment posters have appeared offering “short-term contracts”.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russia’s flagship Black Sea missile cruiser has been “seriously damaged” and its crew forced to evacuate, Russian state media says. Slava-Class Cruiser “Moskva” Flag-Ship of the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet reportedly had an on board fire that set off an explosion of ammunition. This forced the ship to be abandoned and there is no reported ‘cause’ for the fire. The Moskva is an old, Soviet-era missile cruiser but it has been the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2000.

This is where the commonality of the Russian and Ukraine stores. Ukraine claims they struck the ship with 2 Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles, causing the fire and ammo explosion that resulted in the ship to initially list and then sink with 500+ aboard. The missile strike was reportedly aided through the use of a TB-2 drone. Russia denies the missile strike story and the sinking, claiming the ship is under tow back to port.

Sources in Romania and Turkey say Turkish ships rescued 54 soldiers from the water before it sunk.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby just said on CNN that the warship Moskva is still afloat but clearly damaged. He said it remains unclear whether the damage was caused by Ukraine missile attack.

OBSERVATION - BLUF, this is a BIG hit to the Russian Black Sea fleet. Either way, it is gone as a military asset in this campaign.

After the landing ship was sunk and another damaged at a captured Ukrainan port, Russia has kept their fleet resources close to Crimean ports. People have pointed out that this ship was well armed to defend against this kind of attack, those defenses only work when the systems are activated and ship ready for combat. Thoughts that they were not in range of Ukraine assets may have lulled them into a false sense of security.

OTOH - if there was no missile attack, then this is another instance of poor personnel and equipment readiness now being exposed in the Russian navy.
This will further make any Russian amphibious operation to seize Odesa even less likely in the short term- especially if the damage was caused by an Ukraine missile strike (which I think happened). The Moskva is the second major Russian ship known to have been severely damaged since the invasion began.

The US had a Global Haw UAV is up all the time over the Black Sea during this period, so better news may leak out.

Russia claims two Ukrainian helicopters entered Russian airspace and conducted airstrikes on buildings in village of Klimovo in the Bryansk Oblast. Other reports say it was an artillery attack. There is a Russian military vehicle depot just to the SW of Klimovo. If it’s being used it would be an obvious Ukrainian target.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported. See Russian threats to resume missile/bombing attacks.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces took control of Velyka Komyshuvakha just outside of Hrushuvkha (SW of Izyum). Expanding their position in the area will allow Russia to continue their attempted advances South and South East.

OBSERVATION - This area has been the hardest fought for by Russia recently. It provides the most direct axis of advance to try to form the northern ‘pincer’ to cut off the Donbas region. However, Russian forces have suffered significant losses in the several weeks worth of fighting there.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Reports that a significant portion of the Ukrainan marine brigade was able to exfiltrate out of its pocket and join up with the Azoz units. Some of the marines reportedly surrendered.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian artillery hit a major Russian fuel/ammo dump at the Kherson airport overnight.

Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.

OUTLOOK -

Russia is leading its punch and I expect Kyiv to start receiving indiscriminate missile and bombing attacks.

Russia will try to exploit its limited success south of Izyum, forming the northern pincer of the Donbas offensive. Expect tempo in eastern Ukraine to increase as units from the north are refitted and thrown into the battle.

With US/NATO taking a more active role in training Ukrainian military on some of the newer equipment being provided may push Putin to risk a more direct intervention against that aid.

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Belarus -

Secretary of security council of Belarus warns of provocations from Ukraine to get Belarus involved in the war
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Europe / NATO General -

Sweden and Finland’s prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join NATO.
Finland is expected to move first. PM Marin says she won’t give a timetable but “it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion”

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Israel -

The Islamic Jihad Movement: We call on our people everywhere to declare a general mobilization and engage the enemy

Israeli army says troops arrested 18 Palestinians suspected of involvement in terror activities during overnight raids in the West Bank

OBSERVATION - Tensions remain high as the potential for a new infatatda looms.
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