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Wuhan virus -
The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it is extending the nationwide mask requirement for public transit for 15 days as it monitors an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was extending the order, which was set to expire on April 18, until May 3 to allow more time to study the BA.2 omicron subvariant that is now responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Excuses, excuses.
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Economy -
FLASHBACK - In July 2021, White House press secretary Jen Psaki argued that the spike in inflation would not be a permanent adjustment, telling reporters “that these impacts are temporary.”
NOW - The producer price index for final demand increased 1.4% after rising 0.9% in February, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through March, the PPI jumped 11.2%, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010, after advancing 10.3% in February.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 1.1% and accelerating 10.6% year-on-year.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Jim Bullard warns that it’s “fantasy” to think the Fed can tackle inflation through rising interest rates. “There’s a bit of a fantasy, I think, in current policy in central banks [hiking interest rates back to “neutral.”] Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation… Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough, it doesn’t look like,” Bullard said.
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Invasion of Illegals -
In efforts to increase security, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Department of Public Safety to conduct “enhanced searches” of Mexican tractor trailers last week at checkpoints coming from the Mexican border. On Monday, Mexican truckers began parking at border crossings on the Mexico-Texas border to protest against the enhanced searches. Mexican truckers say they already go through federal security checkpoints and shouldn’t need additional screenings by Texas law enforcement officials.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Grand Rapids PD officer killed a black man after violently resisting arrest & trying to take the cop’s taser, has a conviction for assaulting a pregnant woman in Kentwood County. Antifa & the left are calling for violence as revenge for his death.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Elon Musk putting forth a hostile takeover of Twitter with a 43 billion dollar offer. More liberal heads exploding.
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Domestic Terror -
NYPD reports that Frank James has been arrested. Terrorism charges are currently included. His rap sheet includes 9 previous arrests in NY alone. Social media posts show him to be a Black Nationalism supporter.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -
Last month, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force commissioned JS Kumano, the first of its new Mogami-class multi-role frigates. The warship was built at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facility in Tamano and is the first of a planned class of 22 ships that are destined to replace the fleet’s aging Abukuma-class destroyer escorts and Asagiri-class light destroyers. The Mogami-class program is the latest in a series of projects that are upgrading the capabilities of the JMSDF, which is one of the largest navies in the world.
OBSERVATION - Japan cant match the volume of Chinese naval growth, but can offset some of that through high tech multi role capable ships carrying more bang for the buck.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now in the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia is threatening air strikes on Kyiv as retribution for what it claims is Ukraine’s sabotage efforts and missile attacks on Russian territories.
“If cases of sabotage and shelling continue, Russian armed forces will strike the place where such decisions are being made,” the statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense read. “Kyiv will be one of the targets, despite the fact that Russia has so far avoided bombing the capital.”
OBSERVATION - The hypocrisy is evident here by Russia. Kyiv has been directly attacked, 208 residential buildings, 46 schools, and 17 hospitals damaged since the start of the war Feb. 24, according to statistics released by the Kyiv Regional Administration.
Russian heavy weapons including missile systems have been seen moving towards the border with Finland, hours after Russia warned its northern neighbor against joining NATO.
An unconfirmed video uploaded last night appears to show two Russian coastal defense missile systems moving along a road on the Russian side of the border that leads to Helsinki. The missile systems are thought to be the K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense system, designed to take out surface ships up to and including aircraft carrier battle groups.
OBSERVATION - This is just saber rattling, Russia does’t have the capability to attack Finland with the bulk of their active forces engaged in Ukraine. If Russia tries to use these missiles to close off sea access would result in a major response from NATO Baltic countries in addition to Finland.
Deputy secretary of Russian Security council Medvedev threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in Baltic Sea region in case of Finland and Sweden join NATO.
The Lithuanian Defense Minister called the Russian threat strange, stressing that the international community is well aware that Russian nuclear weapons are already in the Kaliningrad Oblast.
RUMINT -
Allegedly Putin has directed that Ukrainan cities that refuse to capitulate to the invasion be razed to the ground in order to get the operation done before May 10th.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Observed in the Moscow metro, military recruitment posters have appeared offering “short-term contracts”.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 19th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia’s flagship Black Sea missile cruiser has been “seriously damaged” and its crew forced to evacuate, Russian state media says. Slava-Class Cruiser “Moskva” Flag-Ship of the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet reportedly had an on board fire that set off an explosion of ammunition. This forced the ship to be abandoned and there is no reported ‘cause’ for the fire. The Moskva is an old, Soviet-era missile cruiser but it has been the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2000.
This is where the commonality of the Russian and Ukraine stores. Ukraine claims they struck the ship with 2 Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles, causing the fire and ammo explosion that resulted in the ship to initially list and then sink with 500+ aboard. The missile strike was reportedly aided through the use of a TB-2 drone. Russia denies the missile strike story and the sinking, claiming the ship is under tow back to port.
Sources in Romania and Turkey say Turkish ships rescued 54 soldiers from the water before it sunk.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby just said on CNN that the warship Moskva is still afloat but clearly damaged. He said it remains unclear whether the damage was caused by Ukraine missile attack.
OBSERVATION - BLUF, this is a BIG hit to the Russian Black Sea fleet. Either way, it is gone as a military asset in this campaign.
After the landing ship was sunk and another damaged at a captured Ukrainan port, Russia has kept their fleet resources close to Crimean ports. People have pointed out that this ship was well armed to defend against this kind of attack, those defenses only work when the systems are activated and ship ready for combat. Thoughts that they were not in range of Ukraine assets may have lulled them into a false sense of security.
OTOH - if there was no missile attack, then this is another instance of poor personnel and equipment readiness now being exposed in the Russian navy.
This will further make any Russian amphibious operation to seize Odesa even less likely in the short term- especially if the damage was caused by an Ukraine missile strike (which I think happened). The Moskva is the second major Russian ship known to have been severely damaged since the invasion began.
The US had a Global Haw UAV is up all the time over the Black Sea during this period, so better news may leak out.
Russia claims two Ukrainian helicopters entered Russian airspace and conducted airstrikes on buildings in village of Klimovo in the Bryansk Oblast. Other reports say it was an artillery attack. There is a Russian military vehicle depot just to the SW of Klimovo. If it’s being used it would be an obvious Ukrainian target.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported. See Russian threats to resume missile/bombing attacks.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces took control of Velyka Komyshuvakha just outside of Hrushuvkha (SW of Izyum). Expanding their position in the area will allow Russia to continue their attempted advances South and South East.
OBSERVATION - This area has been the hardest fought for by Russia recently. It provides the most direct axis of advance to try to form the northern ‘pincer’ to cut off the Donbas region. However, Russian forces have suffered significant losses in the several weeks worth of fighting there.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders. There are reports that Ukrainan elements are surrendering as ammo and food have runout. The mayor says that there are 100K needing evacuation.
Reports that a significant portion of the Ukrainan marine brigade was able to exfiltrate out of its pocket and join up with the Azoz units. Some of the marines reportedly surrendered.
Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian artillery hit a major Russian fuel/ammo dump at the Kherson airport overnight.
Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks overnight.
OUTLOOK -
Maripol is set to fall within days now. Controlled territory and ammo/personnel supples are shrinking for defenders.
The race is on for Ukraine to integrate these into their forces before Russian is ready to kickoff their offensive.
Russia is leading its punch and I expect Kyiv to start receiving indiscriminate missile and bombing attacks.
Russia will try to exploit its limited success south of Izyum, forming the northern pincer of the Donbas offensive. Expect tempo in eastern Ukraine to increase as units from the north are refitted and thrown into the battle.
With US/NATO taking a more active role in training Ukrainian military on some of the newer equipment being provided may push Putin to risk a more direct intervention against that aid.
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Belarus -
Secretary of security council of Belarus warns of provocations from Ukraine to get Belarus involved in the war
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Europe / NATO General -
Sweden and Finland’s prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join NATO.
Finland is expected to move first. PM Marin says she won’t give a timetable but “it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion”
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Israel -
The Islamic Jihad Movement: We call on our people everywhere to declare a general mobilization and engage the enemy
Israeli army says troops arrested 18 Palestinians suspected of involvement in terror activities during overnight raids in the West Bank
OBSERVATION - Tensions remain high as the potential for a new infatatda looms.
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Another wild week.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Mortgage rates hit 5% this week, the highest level since February 2011, continuing a stunning ascent since the start of 2022. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped more than a quarter-point in a week from 4.72% last week, according to Freddie Mac. In the last five weeks alone, the rate has climbed 1.24 percentage points and is 1.89 points higher than at the end of last year.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s removal of Title 42 measures guarantees an uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
At the news conference Wednesday, Abbott and Nuevo León Gov. Samuel Alejandro García Sepúlveda signed the memorandum that calls for the two states to “work cooperatively” to stem the flow of migrants into Texas, reduce cartel activity and restore border crossings to a faster pace.
Mexican drug cartels have conducted more than 9,000 drone flights into U.S. airspace in the last year to surveil American law enforcement and security operations in the southern border region, a senior Homeland Security official told Judicial Watch this week. The drones are observing federal, state, county, and city agencies near the Mexican border, including the U.S. Border Patrol, Texas Department of Public Safety, Texas National Guard, county sheriffs and local police. The Border Patrol, which operates under Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has captured about a dozen of the drones, and accessed the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’ (UAVs) guidance and memory systems to gain intelligence information, according to a high-level official at the agency.
OBSERVATION - This is closing in on complete cartel control of portions of the border - made worse as biden prepares to overwhelm the border patrol with the removal of Title 42 restrictions.
To be confirmed but reportedly from a source in the CBP, the Border Patrol will terminate the CDC Title 42 COVID-19 expulsions for certain categories of migrants effective immediately. Single adult migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Colombia are no longer subject to speedy expulsions along some parts of the southern border.
OBSERVATION - Not sure on the validity or even if they can terminate it early. However, given biden proclivity to ignore law, he may well just order the BP to act as if the Title 42 restrictions have been lifted.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Biden looked lost again Thursday after finishing a speech on the nation’s ongoing supply chain crisis when he turned around and stuck his hand out as if to shake hands - but there was no one else on stage.
The blunder from 79-year-old Biden comes days after he looked disoriented during an event that saw former President Barack Obama visit the White House for the first time since leaving office.
Immediately after ending the speech in Greensboro, North Carolina. with the signoff ‘God bless you all,’ footage from the event shows Biden turning to his right and seemingly saying something to the empty space behind him before miming a handshake - suggesting the president did not know he was alone at the podium.
In the footage, the aging Democrat proceeds to frantically look around the stage with a bewildered look on his face, before beginning to wander aimlessly around the crowded auditorium.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
17 LA gangs are aggressively targeting upper class LA suburbs for robbery.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Musk’s purchase of Twitter stocks and now offering to by it for about 40 billion has caused leftist heads to explode all week.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Years of presidential debates tainted by left-wing biases have finally prompted the Republican National Committee to take action. On Thursday, the RNC voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), the organization that hosts the general election presidential debates every four years.
OBSERVATION - SMH, why did it take so long for the GOP to figure this out.
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Domestic Terror - BLUE
NYC subway shooter, Frank James, was ordered to be held without bail yesterday.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
US soldiers of the 1st battalion of 109 artillery regiment w/ 155 mm M109A6 Paladin howitzers and other fighting equipment arrived in Lithuania.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates the NK is preparing for a likely military parade in Pyongyang to mark the “Day of the Sun” on April 15
Still close watch on either a nuclear test or ICBM launch to celebrate the day as well.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia says it has hit a plant making anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. It came hours after it admitted that the Moskva warship had sunk following an explosion on Wednesday.
Ukraine says it hit the Russian cruiser in the Black Sea with missiles - Russia has said a fire on board caused the sinking
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that should Sweden and Finland join NATO then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in an exclave in the heart of Europe
OBSERVATION - Continuation of nuclear threats against these countries, essentially justifying their concerns and pushing them even closer to NATO.
Personnel Issues -
- Russia has reportedly lost its fortieth high-ranking military officer since the start of the war in Ukraine. Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuev was killed on the frontline, local reports said. Mezhuev commanded the Sevastopol Red Banner regiment under the 1st guards motor rifle division, which moved from Kyiv to the battle-scarred east in recent days. Ukraine says Russia has now lost a total of seven generals and 33 colonels
- Russia sustained more KIA in the first 2-3 days in Ukraine than it has in 6 years in Syria.
Equipment Issues -
The loss of the “Moskva” in perspective. It goes beyond the impact to the prestige of Russia.
Russia admitted yesterday that the Moskva sank while being towed to Crimea. Its loss to Ukrainan Neptune missiles is not the end of the war, but it does seriously impact the Russian war effort.
1. The loss of the Moskva will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct cruise missile strikes. The Moskva’s main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centers and airfields. It had the capability to launch as many as 16 Kalibr missiles at one time. These Russian strikes have been effective but limited in number compared to airstrikes and ground-launched cruise missiles throughout the invasion, and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow.
2. Moskva was vital to the air defense grid in the South & Black Sea. She carried 64 S-300’s, and was basically a massive area denial asset for Ukrainian aviation in the south. “Moskva” had a top radar system crucial for anti-air support for the fleet. This protected the western side of Crimea from Ukrainan air incursions (drone, fighters and helicopters). Other vessels could fill some of the air defense roles of the “Moskva” but not as effectively. The withdrawal of other Russian vessels to roughly 80 nautical miles from the Ukraine coast is a tacit admission that Ukraine did hit the “Moskva” with a missile. This will create an even bigger gap in the air defenses that Ukraine could exploit.
3. The chance of a Russian amphibious assault as part of a move to capture/isolate Odesa or even link up with Russian forces in Moldovan Transnistria, has become close to nil. The naval situation combined with the tactical ground combat would make such an operation a death trap.
BTW, the “Moskva” was involved in the infamous “Snake Island” incident in the early days of the Russian invasion.
One last equipment/force issue. There are and estimated 65 - 80 Russian BTG’s in all of Ukraine right now focused on south and east per a US defense official. Recall that Russia had amassed about 120 BTG’s prior to invasion. If this estimate is accurate, that is a loss of 33 - 54% of raw BTG combat power. NOTE - these numbers may well be disproportionally distributed. However, using another metric, a BTG contains an average of 10 tanks per BTG - approximately 1200 tanks at the start of the war. Over 500 tanks have been confirmed to have been destroyed since the start of hostilities - loss of 41% of combat power.
Economic Hits -
- Moody’s said Russia may be in default because it tried to service its dollar bonds in rubles, which would be one of the starkest consequences to date of Moscow’s exclusion from the Western financial system since President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 24th show warm with rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Pentagon disclosed today that a group of Ukrainian troops in the US for military education when Russia invaded received training on not only armed, unmanned Switchblade aircraft but also coastal defense surface drones US approved for transfer yesterday. Significant action in the Khariv sector, see below.
Go to the following link to see the current depiction of the ground situation in Ukraine. Pay attention to the absence of any RED in northern Ukraine and think back to what was there just a couple weeks ago. The change in the tactical situation is stark.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Russia struck Kyiv with at least 3 cruse missiles overnight, targeting a factory area in the outskirts. Russia has threatened to increase attacks if Ukraine attacks Russian territory.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant to report
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
This is probably the most active and fluid area of fighting. Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Russians recently have made some minor gains south of Izium. This is building to be the main axis of attack by Russia forces, creating the northern pincer to cut off Donbas region from the rest of Ukraine.
However Ukrainian counter-attacks are threatening to cut-off the Russian salient. To the east of Izyum, the Russians have been pushed back approximately 30 km, almost to the strategic town of Borova. Borova was occupied by Russian forces a couple of days ago. See the map link above.
The salient also permits Ukrainian artillery to strike all the Russian supply routes to Izyum. With the rearguard under Ukrainian fire control, the Russian vanguard in this battlefront sector is cut off.
NOTE - Though consisting of smaller towns, not major cities encountered in the north (other than Khariv), the roads are proportionally smaller and narrow as well. Increasing spring rains are denying a lot of off road movements, making Russian forces essentially road bound once again, a flaw that condemned the attacks in the north. Russia is losing control of the road network as well. Ukrainian Special Forces reportedly destroyed a bridge near Izyum while a Russian military convoy was crossing it on April 13. All the major roads to Izyum are controlled by Ukraine except one: the crossing of the Oskil’s’ke reservoir at Borova.
So between Ukraine SOF and artillery interdiction, Russian farces are facing a similar if not worse situation the faced earlier in the north.
Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and its outskirts and seek to fix Ukrainian forces in place.
Attempts to advance on the southern most segment of the front, south of Izium were repulsed.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. It is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out. I know i’ve said this almost daily for the past several weeks and yet they hold on and continue to inflict strong damage to Russian forces assaulting the city.
Separatist/Russian forces made little to no gains in the sector to join forces trying to come down out of the north from Izyum-Slovyansk
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast have slowed as Russian forces continued efforts to improve their defensive positions in Kherson. Russia launched a heavy artillery / missile attack on Melitopol overnight.
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
Russian interdictions -
Belgorod Russia is again unsettled: local residents heard the sounds of explosions, the air defense system is in action. From posted videos it appears that two ADA missiles were fired, but at no targets and were self destructed. A large fire in Belgorod. Local authorities urge calm and say everything is under control. Not clear if the fire was due to Ukrainian action or other.
OBSERVATION - Belgorod is one of the main bases being used to refit and rearm Russian forces pulled out of northern Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Russia may be accelerating the reinforcement of units in the Donbas region as this amorphous May 9th deadline closes in. Already it appears that Russia is making the same mistakes in overextending it forces and leaving resupply lines highly vulnerable it did in the north. The longer Russia delays the kickoff of its offensive, the more it finds itself behind the power curve as Ukraine is operating in a faster and more efficient manner to Russian threats.
Deteriorating weather conditions will degrade Russian fix wing close air support and they will have to risk attack helicopters for any CAS operations in eastern Ukraine.
More and more arms and munitions, including more modern systems, continue to pour into Ukraine and Russia appears powerless to stem the tide. Russia may counter by resuming attacks on Kyiv.
Ukrainan pressure on the western flank of the Crimea front will continue to freeze Russian forces in place and out of the Donbas fight. Ukrainan positioning threatens supply lines coming out of Crimea proper should Russia pull out too many troops and Ukraine gains a break through. The loss of the Moskva is a severe psychological blow to Russia and boost to Ukraine. It does make the western coast of Crimea more vulnerable and could grant Ukraine more maneuver room to push Russian forces from Kherson and further threaten the Crimean front.
Ukraine still holds out in Mariupol, and their dogged determination is amazing, how much longer they can hold out is uncertain.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
Russia’s TASS agency is reporting that the Belarusians have shot down a drone coming from Lithuanian airspace. However smugglers use multi copters to smuggle cigs in to Lithuania.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Smolensk officials and local activists have brought heavy machinery to the Polish military cemetery in Katyn and threatened to destroy it in response to the “demolition of Soviet monuments in Poland”. They’ve also started a petition to resolve the “Katyn issue” once and for all.
Poland has been removing monuments, but not cemeteries, to the Red Army, which attacked it on 17th September 1939, in support of invading Nazi Germany.
Katyn is where the Soviets executed tens of thousands of Polish officers and intellectuals in 1939, back when Moscow and the Nazis were on the same side, and then lied about it for 50 years.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Russian threats against these countries are less vocal/open. Russia may be very wary of hitting any of these nations (particularly Poland) conventionally due to Article 5 and the sorry state of its military forces in and around Ukraine.
Today North Macedonia declared additional six, in total eleven in a period of one month, Russian diplomats as persona non grata for breaching the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Israeli warplanes launched air raids on the positions of pro-Assad forces near the city of Qatana and the Scientific Research Center in Jamraya in Damascus countryside. This is the second strike in Syria by Israel this week.
Israeli forces stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque after a number of people bearing Hamas and PA flags began firing fireworks and throwing stones forced Israeli police to intervene in the situation. The Israeli police spokesperson in Jerusalem says police waited until after the prayer was over and worshippers scattered to respond. Over 100 injured.
OBSERVATION - This is a very serious incident. Al-Aqsa is a tripwire. Be on watch for rocket attacks coming form Gaza into S Israel. Thing could escalate very quickly and have already.
Egyptian security officials reportedly have been conducting mediation between Israel and Hamas over the last several hours after this morning in an attempt to stop escalation.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday that a preliminary deal had been reached with a foreign bank over frozen funds belonging to the Islamic Republic.
Esmail Ghaani, who heads Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, said Thursday the Islamic Republic will confront Israel “wherever it feels necessary,” according to a report by the semi-official Nour News agency.
OBSERVATION - This is in the context of last month’s attack on Kurdish Iraq and the alleged ‘mossad’ base there.
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